Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
2016-07-24.
Sicuramente la Nato è in grado di mantenere il suo deterrente atomico in caso di conflitto termonucleare, e la disponibilità di codesto deterrente concorre a mantenere gli equilibri sui quali si basa l’attuale condizione di “pace”.
Pace volutamente riportata tra virgolette, perché sembrerebbe essere oramai limitata solo alla possibilità di conflitto globale.
Ma il solo deterrente nucleare è insufficiente a garantire gli scopi della Nato.
Senza un esercito di terra efficiente, motivato e bene armato, oltre che numeroso, la Nato e con lei l’Occidente, non può gestire nemmeno una parvenza di politica estera strategica.
Adesso i nodi vengono al pettine.
Il fronte sud della Nato si sta disgregando.
E questa è e sarà una enorme responsabilità di Mr. Obama, Mr Juncker, Mr Schulz, Mr Hollande e Frau Merkel.
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«Contrary to huffs and puffs coming out of Washington and Paris, Turkey’s experience shows that its NATO membership guarantees it can do what it pleases internally as long as it serves US and NATO externally.»
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«If Turkey leaves NATO, the risks to its security are minimal – but the alliance would suffer if it quits»
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«Ever since Turkey joined NATO in 1952, Ankara has viewed its membership in alliance as a win-win proposition, where NATO enhances Turkey’s security and contributes to its integration with the Euro-Atlantic community, and in return, Turkey assumes its responsibilities in defending the interests of the alliance.»
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«In short, the record shows that Turkey under the Erdogan administration has been a major NATO asset; indeed, it’s been more of a benefactor than benefited from the alliance.»
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«The US has long embraced Turkey as a strategic asset, regardless of the latter’s abuse of democracy.»
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«For decades, Washington has maintained close strategic relations with Ankara despite – or thanks to – four military coups, in 1960, 1971, 1980, 1997, and even after its invasion of Cyprus in 1974»
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«All of which begs the question: what happens if Ankara is suspended or it breaks away from the alliance?»
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Putin Calls Erdogan to Voice Support for Order in Turkey.
Putin May Be Turkey’s New Buddy after the Failed Coup.
Erdoğan to meet Vladimir Putin: Turkish state media
Erdoğan, Putin to meet in first 10 days of August: Kremlin
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Turkish Leader Praises Putin For Saving His Live.
«A stunning Security Council (SC) report circulating in the Kremlin today says that during President Putin’s just completed telephone conversation with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the embattled Turkish leader praised the Federation for saving his life and agreed to meet President Putin in the next fortnight»
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«According to this report, the Obama regime plot to kill President Erdoğan was first discovered by the Ministry of Defense (MoD) seven months ago—and that we reported on in our 2 December 2015 report titled Putin Orders “Doomsday” Plane Into Air After Military Warns US-Turkey Plot Is “Beyond Staggering” which, in part, said:
“The Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reporting today that President Putin has ordered the Federation’s Ilyushin-80 giant command and control aircraft designated for use during nuclear war (otherwise known as the “Doomsday plane”) to prepare for worldwide war operations within a fortnight after military intelligence analysts discovered a “beyond staggering” plot by United States and Turkish government factions to bring down Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan and replace him with the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) “designated figurehead” Fethullah Gulen—while at the same time utilizing Islamic State terrorists as “leverage”.” [Note: This report should be read in its entirety to understand the Obama regimes full plans and motivations for staging this coup against Turkey.]»
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Cerchiamo di tirare un minimo di conclusioni.
– La Nato non aveva mai interferito più di tanto nelle situazioni interne turke fino a tanto che la Turkia aveva dato solide garanzie di difendere l’Allenza.
– Il Presidente Obama e la dirigenza dell’Unione Europea, massimamente Mr Juncker, Mr Schulz, Mr Hollande e Frau Merkel negli ultimi anni hanno cercato di interferire pesantemente negli affari interni turki, destabilizzando l’area geopolitica mediorientale, suscitando il fondamentalismo islamico, tentando di rovesciare il regime di Saddam in Syria, cercando di penetrare militarmente l’Ukraina, ed infine, cosa non da poco, premendo sul Governo turko circa una vera o presunta tale “democrazia” e “diritti umani” intesi come sovvertimento contro natura della struttura sociale del paese.
– La reazione turka è stata quella che è stata.
– Mr Putin sarà la prima personalità politica e militare mondiale che potrà parlare vis-à-vis con Mr. Erdoğan.
→ Aljazeera. 2016-07-22. Turexit: Should Turkey leave NATO?
If Turkey leaves NATO, the risks to its security are minimal – but the alliance would suffer if it quits.
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Ever since Turkey joined NATO in 1952, Ankara has viewed its membership in alliance as a win-win proposition, where NATO enhances Turkey’s security and contributes to its integration with the Euro-Atlantic community, and in return, Turkey assumes its responsibilities in defending the interests of the alliance.
But the past few years have put much strain on the relationship, as NATO proves unable or unwilling to stem the tide of mounting regional instability caused by the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS) group against the backdrop of the civil wars in Iraq and Syria on Turkey’s doorsteps.
And last week, the failed coup seemed to deepening distrust between Turkey and its NATO allies.
US Secretary of State John Kerry warned that exploiting the coup to crack down on its detractors and undermine its democracy, could cost Turkey its NATO membership.
But regardless of the seriousness of the US warning – and I think it’s not serious – will Ankara continue to be part of NATO, especially when its attempts to join the European Union have all but failed?
Asset or burden?
The US has long embraced Turkey as a strategic asset, regardless of the latter’s abuse of democracy.
For decades, Washington has maintained close strategic relations with Ankara despite – or thanks to – four military coups, in 1960, 1971, 1980, 1997, and even after its invasion of Cyprus in 1974.
But reading the mainstream Western media gives the impression that Turkey under the Erdogan administration has become hostile to Western interests; a “strategic liability”, an “irresponsible loose cannon”, or a “reckless, aggressive ally” and a “fifth column”.
Is any of this true?
Not according to retired NATO Supreme Allied Commander James Stavridis. He argued in a recent Foreign Policy magazine expose that Turkey has been present in “virtually every NATO operation with significant impact: training Afghan Security Forces and leading coalition efforts in the central district, including Kabul; sending ships and aircraft to Libya; participating in counterpiracy operations; maintaining a steady presence in the security and peacekeeping force in the Balkans”.
Moreover, according to Stavridis – who is considered by Hillary Clinton as a running mate – Turkey has an “enormous ability” to influence events, “from the Islamic State to Syria; Israel to oil and gas in the eastern Mediterranean; responding to radical Islam to stability in Egypt”.
In short, the record shows that Turkey under the Erdogan administration has been a major NATO asset; indeed, it’s been more of a benefactor than benefiter from the alliance.
Enthusiastic member
The Justice and Development Party (AK party) seems as enthusiastic for doing NATO’s bidding if not more than its secular nationalist predecessors; or even its Western allies. And it sees a new, greater role for itself and NATO in the Middle East moving forward.
Since NATO’s first “out of area” operations in Afghanistan in 2001, Turkey has argued that it’s best situated to contribute to such interventions considering the instability in the greater Middle East area.
Former Turkish Foreign and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu went further to urge Europe to support change in the Middle East as it did in Eastern Europe, and vowing that “Turkey will continue to be an asset and an influential actor within NATO if future needs arise, or further NATO involvement in the Middle East” (PDF).
But that, in my view, is not necessarily constructive for Turkey or the Middle East region. Certainly not after the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, and not when Turkey is treated as a foot soldier in an alliance of powerful Western states.
Despite repeated terrorist attacks in Istanbul and other Turkish cities, Turks feel as though their specific worries and interests are “not respected” within the North Atlantic Council.
Instead of being friends and allies on equal terms, the US and its European allies continue to speak down at Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey – most recently France’s foreign minister, who was told to mind his own business.
All of which begs the question: what happens if Ankara is suspended or it breaks away from the alliance?
The alternative and its consequences
If Turkey leaves NATO, the risks to its security are minimal. It has a bigger military and higher defence spending than any one of its neighbours or its NATO allies, with the exception of the US.
True, its relations with its neighbours aren’t great, but Ankara has tried to improve them over the past few weeks and months, especially by mending fences with Israel and Russia.
In fact, before the coup, Turkey was reportedly heading, once again, towards a more pragmatic non-interventionist “zero-problems” diplomacy towards its neighbours.
But one can’t say the same for NATO; the alliance will suffer if Turkey quits.
First, it’ll be exposed for being a military club of influential, predominantly Christian nations with grave consequences to its out-of-area operations.
Second, NATO will find it far more challenging, if not totally improbable, to win the war against ISIL.
Third, if Turkey were to destabilise, the repercussions would be grave for Europe, and could potentially strengthen ISIL.
Fourth, It will embolden Russia to act more aggressively in the region. And fifth, the US and NATO would lose their five major military facilities in Turkey.
So will Turkey leave NATO?
Realistically, Turkey doesn’t have solid alternative options to NATO or the EU.
The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) is more of a forum than anything resembling an alliance. And the same goes for BRICS.
Yet, for all the practical purposes, the Erdogan administration has almost given up on its EU membership in frustration, and is moving further away from it as it rejects the EU’s demands to revise its anti-terror laws and potentially legalise capital punishment.
But Ankara will hang tight to its NATO membership – more for its political than military benefits.
Contrary to huffs and puffs coming out of Washington and Paris, Turkey’s experience shows that its NATO membership guarantees it can do what it pleases internally as long as it serves US and NATO externally.
Judging from President Barack Obama’s phone call to President Erdogan this week, the US is holding tight to its Turkish ally. Likewise, if Admiral Starvidis’s recommendations are anything to go by, so will Clinton.
So as Erdogan strengthens his grip over the country’s military and political establishment, Turkey and NATO will continue to embrace each other, and probably increase visit exchanges, improve their lines of communications and intensify the cooperation against ISIL.
→ Deutsche Welle. 2016-07-22. EU foreign policy chief calls on Turkey to respect human rights
EU foreign policy head Federica Mogherini has urged Turkey not to use democratic institutions to undercut human rights. President Erdogan has moved fast in the wake of last week’s botched coup to consolidate power.
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“We are making it very clear to our Turkish friends – we are fully behind the institutions, the democratic institutions, the legitimate institutions,” Mogherini (pictured above) said on Thursday evening.
“But there is no excuse, there is no way in which the reaction can undermine fundamental freedoms and rights,” she continued, adding that “what we’re seeing, especially in the fields of universities, media, the judiciary, is unacceptable.”
Turkey on Thursday imposed a three-month state of emergency, reinforcing state powers to round up suspects and suspending a key European rights convention.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the emergency law would allow Turkey to be cleared of “terrorists” linked to US-based Muslim preacher Fethullah Gulen, whom he accuses of preparing the failed coup from the US.
Ankara has stepped up pressure on Washington to extradite Gulen, sending several “dossiers” it says are full of evidence about his involvement. Gulen has dismissed the claims as “ridiculous.”
The coup that unsuccessfully sought to oust Erdogan ended with some 50,000 alleged sympathizers in state offices losing their jobs and more than 10,000 suspects being detained.
Erdogan said 4,060 of those individuals remained in custody.
International protest
Erdogan meanwhile told France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault – who had warned him not to use the failed coup as “a carte blanche to silence his opponents” – to “mind his own business.”
“If he wants a lesson in democracy, he can very easily get a lesson in democracy from us,” Erdogan told Al-Jazeera.
German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said it was “vital that the state of emergency is limited for the required time and then immediately lifted.”
US Vice President Joe Biden urged Turkey to pursue the instigators of the coup according to the rule of law during a phone call with the country’s prime minister.
Mixed domestic signals
Meanwhile, responding to an appeal by Erdogan not to stop protests, thousands of Turkish government supporters walked across one of the two bridges spanning the Bosphorus Strait in Istanbul to condemn the attempted coup last week.
Many reportedly carried lit torches and nationalist signs with slogans such as “Our flag, our nation” or with slogans denouncing Gulen.
Opposition parties expressed concern. “The road to arbitrary rule, unlawful behavior, feeding on violence, has been chosen,” complained the opposition Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). “Society has been forced to choose between a coup or an undemocratic government.”
Army restructuring
Erdogan said there had been significant failures in intelligence leading up to the attempted military coup and that the armed forces would need to be quickly restructured.
In his first interview since declaring a state of emergency following the abortive coup, Erdogan told news service Reuters that a new coup attempt was possible but would not be easy, saying, “We are more vigilant.”
“It is very clear that there were significant gaps and deficiencies in our intelligence. There is no point trying to hide it or deny it. I told it to the head of national intelligence,” Erdogan said.
About 60,000 soldiers, police, judges, civil servants and teachers have been suspended, detained or placed under investigation since the coup attempt was put down.
“This state of emergency is not a curfew. People will still be on the street minding their own business and getting on with daily life,” he said.
→ Deutsche Welle. 2016-07-21. UN concerned over Turkey coup attempt impacting Cyprus talks
The UN has said there’s no evidence suggesting Turkey will change its position on talks regarding Cyprus. However, the intergovernmental organization did express concern that the failed coup could have a negative impact.
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UN envoy Espen Barth Eide suggested on Thursday that there was concern among the international community over how the failed coup in Turkey could impact a reunification deal in Cyprus.
“We have all been rather concerned about the recent developments in Turkey,” Eide said at a press conference following his meeting with Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades.
The diplomat went on to emphasize that there was no evidence suggesting Erdogan had changed his position on the peace talks, which have been going on for years but which have seemed to reach a turning point over the past year. Both Anastasiades and the leader of the Turkish Cypriots, Mustaka Akinci, have expressed willingness to reach a settlement agreement, which would bring an end to the island’s four-decade-long division.
An end to divisions?
Still, Eide said he “would not be honest” if he didn’t express concern about how the failed coup in Turkey last week could impact the talks. Since then, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has cracked down heavily on those allegedly involved in the coup attempt, even declaring a three-month state of emergency.
On the other hand, the Norwegian envoy said, the turmoil in Turkey could also push the two Cypriot leaders to the table. “I think the best thing we can do is to not ignore, but to reduce the influence of external circumstances,” Eide said.
Cyprus was divided in 1974, after Turkish troops occupied the northern third of the island in response to a coup organized by those sympathetic to Athens. The two sides are divided by a UN-monitored buffer zone.
→ Deutsche Welle. 2016-07-19. Turkey fires all university deans in post-coup purge – state TV
The Higher Education Board ordered all deans to resign as part of a crackdown following last weekend’s failed coup. Staff from the education ministry and the office of the prime minister were also told to leave.
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The order, made to all 1,577 university deans at state and private institutitions, was reported by Turkey’s state broacaster TRT, and followed the earlier sacking of 15,200 staff working for the National Education Ministry.
Officials said an investigation had been launched against employees at both urban and rural education establishments suspected of having links to a religious movement blamed for the attempted overthrow of the government on Friday. The failed coup left 232 people dead and thousands wounded.
More than 250 staff working in Prime Minister Binali Yildirim’s office were also dismissed, the state-run Anadolu news agency reported. The mass firings followed similar purges in several government ministries on Monday.
Also Tuesday, the National Intelligence Organization suspended 100 staff from their duties, a senior Turkish official said. Most of those fired were not active agents. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s main military aide, Erkan Kivrak, was taken into custody, Anadolu reported.
Thousands of others – from the military, police, judiciary and other government departments – have either been suspended or detained over the past four days and many now face prosecution.
Gulen dossier sent
Erdogan has put the blame for the coup attempt firmly on US-based Islamic preacher Fethullah Gulen. On Tuesday, the country’s broadcasting regulator canceled licenses of all radio and television stations linked to Gulen’s religious movement.
Washington has said it could only consider an extradition request for Gulen if the Ankara government can provide clear evidence of his involvement. Turkey sent a dossier detailing what it said contained details of the 75-year-old preacher’s activities.
Along with Gulen, some senior government officials and a section of the military have been accused of organizing the failed coup.
Military tarnished
In an attempt to restore its image, the army released a statement Tuesday reassuring the public that the vast majority of its members had no links to the attempted revolt. Turkey’s military is reported to be 640,000 personnel strong.
The United Nations joined the chorus of world leaders voicing concern at the sweeping nature of the post-coup purge, urging a measured response from the Turkish government.
“In the aftermath of such a traumatic experience, it is particularly crucial to ensure that human rights are not squandered in the name of security and in the rush to punish those perceived to be responsible,” UN Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein said Tuesday.
Hussein also warned Turkey it would be in violation of international law if it were to reintroduce the death penalty in the wake of the coup, a move Erdogan has repeatedly mooted since last weekend.
Also Tuesday, Turkey cut a key interest rate, to help shore up the economy amid market concerns about the impact of the failed coup, which have rattled the country’s financial markets.
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