Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
2016-04-26.
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Mr. Vucic ed il Serbian Progressive Party hanno conseguito la maggioranza assoluta nelle elezioni politiche: questo fatto contribuirà a garantire una continuità di orientamento politico ed economico oltremodo opportuno per quel paese che ancora stenta a riprendersi dopo le recenti guerre civili.
La Serbia è un paese povero.
Nel 2014, ad un pil pro capite di 5,309 Usd / anno si contrapponeva un pil ppa pro capite di 10,722 Usd / anno. I disoccupati raggiungevano il 18% della popolazione attiva.
Nel corso di un anno il pil pro capite è sceso a 4,246 Usd / anno, mentre il pil ppa pro capite è salito a 12,717 Usd / anno: discrasia questa che ben evidenzia il clima di sofferenza economica del paese, che infatti a tutto dicembre 2015 aveva ancora il 17.9% di disoccupati.
Non dimentichiamoci che questa è la terza tornata elettorale politica in quattro anni.
Quando un paese versa in simili condizione ha bisogno di tutto tranne che di instabilità politica.
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Storicamente la Serbia ha sempre gravitato sotto il patronato russo, anche a causa della prevalente religione ortodossa.
Troviamo del tutto logico ed intelligente che la dirigenza serba si stia domandando se sia più proficuo proseguire la sua tradizione aperta all’est ovvero rivolgersi all’Unione Europea. Scelte del genere imporrebbero sempre un’accurata valutazione di tutti i pro ed i contro.
L’attuale posizione:
«It wants to pursue EU membership while maintaining good relations with Russia»
sembrerebbe consentire un ragionevole equilibrio.
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Poniamoci però una domanda.
Quando Vucic parla di aderire all’Unione Europea, di quale Unione sta parlando?
Infatti, nell’Unione Europea sono in corso profondi mutamenti politici e tutto deporrebbe a favore del fatto che tra una anno, ossia dopo le elezioni presidenziali francesi e quelle federali tedesche, il sentimento politico all’interno dell’Unione possa essere sostanzialmente cambiato.
Un chiaro esempio è dato dalla simultanee elezioni tenutesi in Austria per il rinnovo del Presidente della Repubblica, ove il candidato del Fpö ha ottenuto la maggioranza relativa dei voti conseguendo il 36.7% dei suffragi. I partiti tradizionalmente egemoni in Austria, i socialdemocratici ed i popolari, non sono nemmeno riusciti a portare un loro candidato al ballottaggio: attualmente non valgono più dell’11%. Troppo poco per contare qualcosa.
Riproponiamo quindi il problema posto: in quale Unione Europea intende Vucic pilotare la Serbia?
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→ Bbc. 2016-04-25. Serbia election: Pro-EU Prime Minister Vucic claims victory
Serbia’s pro-EU PM Aleksandar Vucic has claimed victory in general elections after pollsters’ projections showed his Progressive Party won 50% of the votes.
He said Serbs “again gave us the honour to lead the government”.
Mr Vucic called the poll early seeking a mandate to continue with reforms required to join the EU.
The Socialists are in second place with about 13%, while the ultra-nationalist Radical Party – which seeks closer ties with Russia – is third with 7%.
Radical Party leader Vojislav Seselj could return to parliament after his recent acquittal of crimes against humanity at the UN war crimes tribunal in The Hague.
The Radical Party opposes EU membership.
The initial projections were published by independent observing group CeSID.
After casting his ballot earlier on Sunday, Mr Vucic said he would not compromise with right-wing parties and hoped that voters would choose a “European path”.
“I’m almost certain that we’ll carry on our EU integration process,” he said.
Also voting in Belgrade, retired Jelica Nikolic, 68, said she and her husband were acting more out of duty than conviction. “We have elections too often,” she said.
In the south-western city of Novi Pazar, voter Edib Mahmutovic, 40, hoped the winner would create new jobs “that enable us to stay here and not have to look for a better life elsewhere in Europe”.
This is Serbia’s third parliamentary election in less than four years.
If confirmed, the results would mean an absolute majority for Mr Vucic in parliament.
The ultra-nationalists, however, could complicate Serbia’s EU membership talks by resisting concessions, such as ending the claim to sovereignty over Kosovo.
Critics of Mr Vucic say his government has become increasingly autocratic, with some calling him a “dictator”.
Serbia has signed a €1.2bn ($1.35bn; £940m) loan with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In return, it needs to implement austerity measures demanded by the group.
The Serbian economy is in bad shape, and unemployment is at around 18%.
The key players.
– Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), led by Aleksandar Vucic, centre-right
Founded in 2008, it has been in power since 2012. It won an overall majority two years ago, an unprecedented event in Serbia’s short democratic history. It wants to pursue EU membership while maintaining good relations with Russia.
– Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), led by Ivica Dacic, left
Founded in 1990 by Serbia’s late strongman Slobodan Milosevic. Its main goals are achieving more social justice, social welfare and finding a political solution for Kosovo. But it has supported austerity policies implemented by its coalition partner SNS.
– Serbian Radical Party (SRS), led by Vojislav Seselj, ultra-nationalist
Founded in 1991, promoted since its early days the union of Serbia and parts of Bosnia and Croatia where Serbs formed the majority. It opposes EU membership and supports a closer alliance with Russia.
→ Rferl. 2016-04-25. Vucic Declares Victory In Serbian Parliamentary Elections.
Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic has declared a “historic triumph” for his center-right Serbian Progressive Party in early parliamentary elections, promising to keep the country on its course to join the European Union.
“Serbia will continue on its European path and we’ll try to accelerate it,” Vucic told supporters gathered at party headquarters in Belgrade late on April 24, hours after polls closed. “There is no compromising with that.”
However, he stressed that Belgrade will also maintain its friendship with Russia, its traditional Orthodox ally and supporter.
An initial projection by the independent CeSID monitoring agency said Vucic’s party is set to win 49 percent of votes cast in the election.
The left-leaning Socialist Party of Serbia was set to remain the second-biggest party in parliament with 12.9 percent, while the ultranationalist Radical Party of Vojislav Seselj, acquitted last month of war crimes by a UN tribunal in The Hague, is set to be the third-largest party in parliament with 7.4 percent of the vote, CeSID projected.
The polling firm based its projections on the actual vote count at representative polling stations. The first official results are expected later this week.
Seselj, whose core ideology is based on the goal of creating a Greater Serbia, has himself publicly burned EU and NATO flags. He has also campaigned for closer ties with Russia rather than the EU, saying that would help Serbia overcome its “economic misery.”
“We are not happy with the election results. We expected more,” Seselj said late on April 24, adding that the Radicals would “show we are superior” in parliament.
Following a sluggish start, the pace of voting picked up in the April 24 election, with total turnout expected to surpass the 53 percent threshold registered in Serbia’s 2012 parliamentary elections.
Vucic called the vote two years ahead of schedule, saying he needed a stronger mandate than the 131 seats that the Serbian Progressive Party now controls — just over half the 250 seats in parliament. Such a mandate, he said, would help him achieve his stated goals of bringing Serbia closer to European Union membership and bolstering the economy by pushing through reforms required by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Formerly an ultranationalist who supported the idea of a Greater Serbia, Vucic now presents himself as a pro-European reformer.
Vuvic and his governing coalition partners narrowly missed securing a two-thirds majority in the 2014 vote, when they won 158 seats.
Formed by the late Slobodan Milosevic and led by Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic, the Socialists before the April 24 vote were in control of 25 seats. The party has opposed the large-scale privatization of loss-generating state firms called for by Brussels as a condition of closer EU integration, and that the IMF has made a condition of a 1.2 billion-euro ($1.35 billion) loan.
In fact, the Socialists’ opposition to privatization deals caused tension with Vucic, who has said he needs a good review in May from the IMF on Belgrade’s reforms or it would be “very difficult” for him “to be the prime minister.”
The Social Democratic Party of Serbia, led by ethnic Bosniak politician and Trade Minister Rasim Ljajic, rounded out the governing coalition before the April 24 ballot with nine seats in the National Assembly.
The Social Democrats are a part of the Alliance For a Better Serbia — a coalition that also includes the Liberal Democratic Party of Serbia and the League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina.
Vucic, a former Seselj ally, said as he cast his ballot in a rainy Belgrade suburb that he “not going to make any compromise” with right-wing parties.
The head of Serbia’s Government Office of Kosovo, Marko Djuric, said that polling stations will be open in Serb-inhabited areas of Kosovo.
More than 110 countries recognize the independence of mostly ethnic Albanian Kosovo, but Belgrade insists it remains a province of Serbia.
Kosovo’s constitution allows for dual citizenship for the Serbian community.
In previous Serbian elections, the government in Pristina did not allow Serbia’s Election Commission to organize balloting within Kosovo. But the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) reached a deal with Pristina that will allow the organization to collect the votes of Kosovo Serbs.
The OSCE carried out a similar role in Kosovo for Serbia’s 2012 and 2014 parliamentary elections.
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