Brexit. Una domanda che tormenta le menti liberal.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-09-20.

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Gli inglesi vogliono andarsene da questa Europa.

E vorrebbero anche farlo sbattendosi dietro la porta.

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Che abbiano ragione Mr Juncker, Mr Tusk, Mr Macron, Frau Merkel, etc. etc. ?

Che siano tutti fascisti?

Mrs May. Dimissioni dopo il quarto voto, indipendentemente dal risultato.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-18.

«British prime minister Theresa May has agreed to step down at some point after her fourth attempt to pass an EU exit deal in June, no matter what the outcome»

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«Her decision was revealed on Thursday (16 May) by a senior Conservative MP, Graham Brady, the chairman of the so-called 1922 Committee, an influential backbench group within the party»

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«We have agreed to meet to decide the timetable for the election of a new leader of the Conservative Party as soon as the second reading has occurred and that will take place regardless of what the vote is on the second reading – whether it passes or whether it fails»

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«The deal has already been defeated three times on grounds that provisions related to the Irish border could see Britain stuck in a customs union with the EU for an indefinite amount of time»

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«The first defeat, in January, by 230 votes, was the largest ever for a government motion in British history»

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«May, who herself wanted to keep Britain in the EU during in the 2016 referendum, has been vilified by hardline Brexiteers for her handling of the process»

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«further procrastination which is causing appalling damage to the Conservative party»

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«For his part, Boris Johnson, a former foreign minister and hard Brexiteer, said he would “of course” throw his hat into the ring to take May’s job when she left.»

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Diamo atto a Mrs May di come sia stato, e sia tuttora. impossibile trattare con persone quali Mr. Juncker, Mr Tusk, Mr Oettinger, Mr Macron e Frau Merkel, la rigidità mentale delle quali supera l’immaginabile e l’inimmaginabile. Si sono comportate come galline isteriche, avendo recepito il Brexit per quello che è: un severo e pesante giudizio sul loro comportamento ed operato.

Ma nel contempo non possiamo negare quanta sprovvida imperizia abbia dispiegato Mrs May nello svolgere il ruolo di primo ministro di Sua Maestà Britannica. Un esempio per tutti, la convocazione delle elezioni anticipate, dalle quali Mrs May è uscita con le ossa rotte.

Sia l’Unione Europea sia il Regno Unito avrebbero un disperato bisogno di personaggi politici meno ideologizzati e ben più pragmatici.

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EU Observer. 2019-05-17. May to step down after fourth EU vote

British prime minister Theresa May has agreed to step down at some point after her fourth attempt to pass an EU exit deal in June, no matter what the outcome.

Her decision was revealed on Thursday (16 May) by a senior Conservative MP, Graham Brady, the chairman of the so-called 1922 Committee, an influential backbench group within the party.

“We have agreed to meet to decide the timetable for the election of a new leader of the Conservative Party as soon as the second reading has occurred and that will take place regardless of what the vote is on the second reading – whether it passes or whether it fails,” Brady said, following what he called a “very frank” 90-minute long discussion with the British leader.

British MPs are to hold two days of debate on the exit deal on 3 June, shortly after the European Parliament elections, with a vote likely on 5 June.

The deal has already been defeated three times on grounds that provisions related to the Irish border could see Britain stuck in a customs union with the EU for an indefinite amount of time.

The first defeat, in January, by 230 votes, was the largest ever for a government motion in British history.

The third defeat, in March, saw the bill fail by just 58 votes.

It prompted May to hold talks with the opposition Labour party, but these are expected to break up in the coming days without a new compromise due to Labour’s red lines, which include staying in the customs union in any case.

May, who herself wanted to keep Britain in the EU during in the 2016 referendum, has been vilified by hardline Brexiteers for her handling of the process.

Brady said on Thursday that she was “determined to secure our departure from the European Union”.

But Andrew Bridgen, a pro-Brexit Tory MP, continued to attack her, saying that her plan for a fourth Brexit vote was “further procrastination which is causing appalling damage to the Conservative party”.

May was “an increasingly beleaguered and isolated prime minister, who is desperate to salvage something from her premiership and is prepared to drive through an agreement that would fatally hamstring any future prime minister in negotiations with the EU,” he added.

For his part, Boris Johnson, a former foreign minister and hard Brexiteer, said he would “of course” throw his hat into the ring to take May’s job when she left.

The UK was due to leave the EU in March, but the political stalemate in Westminster have seen that delayed to 31 October.

They have also seen support for the Tories plunge to new lows – just 11 percent of people plan to vote Conservative in the European Parliament (EP) elections, according to recent polls, putting it in fourth place behind the Brexit Party, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats – in what would mark its worst result in any vote since the Conservative party was formed in 1834.

The prospects of a potentially protracted Tory leadership battle and new general elections, on top of Westminster’s summer recess, bode ill for the UK agreeing a new exit deal by the October deadline.

The prospects of a new, anti-EU Tory leader taking over the talks, in the context of a powerful show of support for the anti-EU Brexit Party in the EP vote also bode ill.

Some in Europe have said it should offer to extend the deadline still further in the hope that Brexit might fall by the wayside.

“We should go soft on Britain, give them time, they are still in the EU, let’s give them space,” Polish foreign minister Jacek Czaputowicz told the Reuters news agency this week.

“It’s a matter of changing the rhetoric to let the Brits rethink their decision,” he said.

Others, such as German chancellor Angela Merkel, are playing their cards close to their chest.

When asked in a recent interview what might happen if a new British leader tried to renegotiate the UK’s exit terms in the autumn, she said merely: “Should there be anything to negotiate, the European commission will do so on behalf of the 27 member states, as it has done so far”.

But with few in the UK or in Europe keen for Britain to live with no deal in place, in what would likely wreak economic havoc on both sides of the English Channel, she added that British indecisiveness could see the process strung out even further.

“In order for the UK to leave the EU, there needs to be a parliamentary majority in London for, rather than merely against, something,” Merkel said.

Unione Europea risultato di una dirigenza inetta. I numeri della débâcle.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-03-08.

Il Wall Street Journal è lapidario nella constatazione dei fatti.

«the European Commission cut the 2019 eurozone growth forecast from an already anemic 1.9% to 1.3%. Economic output in the eurozone was lower in 2017 than it was in 2009; over that same period, gross domestic product grew 139% in China, 96% in India, and 34% in the U.S.».

La colpa di un simile disastro è da imputarsi in toto all’attuale dirigenza.

Mr Hollande, Mr Macron, Frau Merkel, Mr Renzi, Mr Gentiloni, Herr Rutte come capi di stato, Mr Juncker, Mr Tusk, Mr Oettinger, Mr Moscovici come eurocrati.

Sono dei falliti che hanno trascinato l’Europa al fallimento.

Ma il Wall Street Journal è stato ancora con la mano leggera.

Se invece del 2009 avesse optato per il 2008, i dati sarebbero stati ben peggiori.

Nel 2008 il pil dell’eurozona era 14,113.094 miliardi Usd, ed a fine 2017 era 12,589.880 miliardi.

Similmente, il pil procapite è crollato da 42,770 Usd a 36,670 Usd.

Riassumendo: il pil è sceso di 1,523.21 miliardi Usd ed il pil procapite di 6,100 Usd.

Tutto il mondo ha progredito tranne che l’eurozona, che invece è regredita.

Ripetiamo solo per chiarezza: la colpa di un simile disastro è da imputarsi in toto all’attuale dirigenza. Scomparire sarà l’unica cosa decente che abbiano fatto.

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«decline of Europe as a force in world affairs»

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«The Continent’s Grand Unity Project Is Failing»

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«As its economy lags behind, Europe is becoming more divided politically»

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«A recent report from the European Council on Foreign Relations projects that anti-EU parties from the right and left are on course to control enough seats in the near European Parliament that they will be able to disrupt the EU and weaken it further»

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«two factors contributed to the continent’s geopolitical decline in the 20th century»

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«One was inevitable the wealth gap between Europe and the rest of the world necessarily narrowed»

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«The second factor in Europe’s decline was internal division and nationalistic animosity»

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«The Euro was both an economic and political failure; and, diplomatic unity remains a distant dream»

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«China takes Japan and India more seriously than it takes the EU»

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«Leaders in France and Germany remain firmly committed to the European project, but with Britain on the brink of secession, Italy and Poland mutinous, and Hungary left defiant, the outlook is dimming»

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«forced harmonization is engendering: distrust, resentment, ridicule, contempt and even hatred, amongst and between the people’s of the European continent»

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«We have an elitist, bureaucratic, corrupt, authoritarian, repressive institution and leadership on one side and, a demoralized, lost generation of youth who see an “unaccountable, undemocratic, illegitimate and ultimately repressive super-state” that is digging Europe and themselves into an even deeper hole»

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«A country and its citizens cannot subordinate its sovereignty to an unaccountable, sclerotic, bloated bureaucratic entity in Brussels»

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«That is why Brexit passed; and, a vibrant, continent-wide nationalist movement took hold»

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«The demise of the EU and the Euro as currently conceived; and it is only a matter of when, not if»

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È veramente molto difficile non essere di accordo con il Wall Street Journal quando dice:

«A country and its citizens cannot subordinate its sovereignty to an unaccountable, sclerotic, bloated bureaucratic entity in Brussels»

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→ WSJ. 2019-02-25. Incredible Shrinking Europe

«Last week offered fresh evidence that the most consequential historical shift of the last 100 years continues: the decline of Europe as a force in world affairs. As Deutsche Bank warned of a German recession, the European Commission cut the 2019 eurozone growth forecast from an already anemic 1.9% to 1.3%. Economic output in the eurozone was lower in 2017 than it was in 2009; over that same period, gross domestic product grew 139% in China, 96% in India, and 34% in the U.S., according to the World Bank.»

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→ Fortuna’s Corner. 2019-02-25. Incredible Shrinking Europe: The Continent’s Grand Unity Project Is Failing; And Its Global Influence Is Fading;”The Rotten Heart Of Europe”

Incredible Shrinking Europe: The Continent’s Grand Unity Project Is Failing; And Its Global Influence Is Fading;”The Rotten Heart Of Europe”.

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The title above comes from an Op-Ed in today’s (Feb. 12, 2019) Wall Street Journal (WSJ) by Walter Russell Mead. According to his Wikipedia biography, Mr. Mead is the James Clarke Chace Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College; and, previously taught foreign affairs at Yale University. He is also Editor-At-Large of The American Interest Magazine, and a columnist for the WSJ.

Mr. Mead begins, “Last week offered fresh evidence that the most consequential historical shift of the last 100 years continues: the decline of Europe as a force in world affairs. As Deutsche Bank warned of a German recession, the European Commission cut the 2019 Eurozone growth forecast from an already anemic 1.9 percent, to 1.2 percent. Economic output in the Eurozone was lower in 2017 than it was on 2009.” “Over that same period, gross domestic product grew 129 percent in China, 96 percent in India, and 34 percent in the U.S.,” according to the World Bank.

“As its economy lags behind, Europe is becoming more divided politically,” Professor Mead reminds us. “Brexit negotiations have inflamed tempers on both sides of the English Channel; Central European Countries like Hungary and Poland are alienated from the West; much of Southern Europe remains bitter about the aftermath of the Euro crisis; and the EU political parties continue to gain support across the bloc. A recent report from the European Council on Foreign Relations projects that anti-EU parties from the right and left are on course to control enough seats in the near European Parliament that they will be able to disrupt the EU and weaken it further. This wasn’t supposed to happen,” Mr. Mead notes. “The EU was founded to stop Europe’s decline, not reflect it.” Though to be fair, the EU was also formed in part because the continent had germinated two world wars; and, no one wanted a third.

“As Europe’s founders saw it, two factors contributed to the continent’s geopolitical decline in the 20th century,” Mr. Mead writes. “One was inevitable,” he contends, “as technologies of the industrial heartland spread to Asia and the Americas; the wealth gap between Europe and the rest of the world necessarily narrowed. The diffusion of medical innovations — which also often originated in Europe — contributed to population explosions in the rest of the world. Meanwhile, Europe, the first continent to industrialize, was the first to experience decline in its birthrates associated with urbanization and affluence.”

“The second factor in Europe’s decline was internal division and nationalistic animosity,” Mr. Mead wrote. “This was the problem the EU’s founders sought to cure. Two world wars left much of Europe impoverished and in ruins. If the Continent could unify under a single set of values and political institutions, future wars could be averted. The unification policies began with Franco-German reconciliation after World War II. As the Cold war ended, and Germany was reunified, European leaders launched an ambitious program to broaden and deepen transnational cooperation.

“The union would expand to the east,” Professor Mead wrote, securing democracy in the former Warsaw Pact countries. Economic cooperation would deepen with the development of a single market, the establishment of a common currency, and the adoption of common economic principals. Diplomatically, the Europeans would seek a unified front in their dealings with the outside world. Building a new Europe that could compete on equal terms with the United States and China in a post-Cold War world is Europe’s overarching goal.”

“It’s become increasingly apparent that this grand project is failing,” Professor Mead argues. “An uneven; and perhaps overambitious expansion weakened — rather than strengthened the EU. The Euro was both an economic and political failure; and, diplomatic unity remains a distant dream.”

“Neighbors like Russia, Turkey, Israel, and the Arab states flout the EU’s wishes at will,” Professor Mead wrote. “European influence in Washington, already declining in the Obama years, has reached a nadir under POTUS Trump. Neither Moscow, nor Washington showed much regard for Europe’s interests when suspending the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which limits missile deployments in Europe. China takes Japan and India more seriously than it takes the EU; and, neither the U.S. nor China has been particularly concerned about what Europeans think, as they negotiate bilateral trade agreements that may redefine the world trade system.”

“One European initiative did work,” Professor Mead notes: “the single market. Europe remains formidable as a consumer bloc, and the EU’s ability to regulate the conditions under which foreign companies like Google and Gazprom operate inside its wealthy market is the most important card in its hand.”

“Leaders in France and Germany remain firmly committed to the European project, but with Britain on the brink of secession, Italy and Poland mutinous, and Hungary left defiant, the outlook is dimming,” Professor Mead observes. “if Paris and Berlin could devise a program to reignite European growth, secure its frontiers, and satisfy the nationalist emotions now ruling the bloc, Europe could arrest its decline. So far at least, such an outcome seems unlikely.” he notes.

“Some on the nationalist right in the U.S. welcome Europe’s demise,” Professor Mead wrote. “This is a mistake. A strong Europe, even if it is sometimes cantankerous and disagreeable, is better for the U.S. than a weak Europe — that can neither secure its own neighborhood, nor contribute to global stability. But, the U.S. must deal with the Europe we have; and, the Europe we have….isn’t doing well,” Professor Mead concludes.

Bernard Connolly, Author Of “The Rotten Heart Of Europe: The Dirty War For Europe’s Money”

I have felt from the beginning that the European Union and the Euro. as currently conceived — was doomed to failure. I wonder what took Mr. Mead so long, as I deeply respect his intellect and grasp of history.  In 2014, Rick Santelli of CNBC had a fascinating and thought provoking interview with Bernard Connolly. Mr. Connolly an Oxford educated British economist who is known for his pessimistic outlook for the Euro and the European Monetary Union, provided a sobering but thoughtful assessment of the European Union.

Mr. Connolly’s book, “The Rotten Heart of Europe: The Dirty War For Europe’s Money,” is a sobering, but realistic assessment of the consequences and pitfalls that plague the Eurozone — as a consequence of pursuing a continent-wide monetary union. And Mr. Connolly should know, he was there for the “birth” of the Euro and was partly responsible for where Europe is today. Depression and recession are widespread across the continent as toxic nationalism and profound unemployment — especially among the youth are pervasive.

Mr. Connolly contends that the monetary union — which is at the heart of this grand Euro experiment — is rotten at its core. Indeed, Mr. Connolly contends that this destructive pursuit is making the economic situation in Europe worse than it would otherwise be; and, this “forced harmonization” is engendering “distrust, resentment, ridicule, contempt and even hatred,” amongst and between the people’s of the European continent. Yet Mr. Connolly notes, “the people who put this together (some of whom are in leadership positions today) hail the EURO and EU as a success.” “They call Spain a success and they have 27% unemployment. Greece is called exceptional; and yet, youth unemployment there is a staggering 67%.” He calls this belief in the promise of a monetary union either crazy or disturbing. Those who originally proposed a European Union thought this was the path to prevent a third European civil war. The reality Mr. Connolly says, is a reversal of the post-WWII economic revival. “We have an elitist, bureaucratic, corrupt, authoritarian, repressive institution and leadership on one side and, a demoralized, lost generation of youth who see an “unaccountable, undemocratic, illegitimate and ultimately repressive super-state” that is digging Europe and themselves into an even deeper hole. Not surprisingly, he sees ultimate failure for the European Union and even disaster, the longer those in charge in Europe pursue this feckless endeavor. A deadly cocktail of unintended consequences. You may or may not agree with Mr. Connolly; but, it is hard to dismiss, or ignore him and his thesis — would be a failure itself.

Divorcing oneself from this unworkable union will not solve Europe’s economic woes — not by a long shot. Over-excessive and oppressive regulation, onerous taxation, and the migrant crisis will still haunt the continent. But, being miserable in one’s own country is more tolerable that being miserable for some disconnected, faceless entity.

POTUS Obama and his national security team were on the wrong side of history. A country and its citizens cannot subordinate its sovereignty to an unaccountable, sclerotic, bloated bureaucratic entity in Brussels. That is why Brexit passed; and, a vibrant, continent-wide nationalist movement took hold.  The demise of the EU and the Euro as currently conceived — is doomed to failure in my view; and it is only a matter of when — not if — IMO  RCP, fortunascorner.com