Germania. Proiezioni Federali. Un terremoto.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2016-05-06.

 

 

Infratest dimap ha rilasciato le ultime proiezioni elettorali relative alla Germania.

L’Union scenderebbe di -8.5 punti percentuali e l’Spd di -5.7. In termine percentuali, l’Unione perderebbe il -25.76% e l’Spd il -28.5% dei consensi.

Significativa la crescita dei Grüne, che guadagnerebbero +4.5 punti percentuali (+35.38%) e di AfD che salirebbe di +10.3 punti percentuali (+68.67%).

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Se queste proiezioni dovessero stabilizzarsi nel tempo e se le elezioni del prossimo anno dovessero fornire risultati compatibili, sarebbe una vera e propria rivoluzione in Germania, e con essa nell’Unione Europea.

Già adesso si inizia a vociferare che l’Union abbandonerebbe la storica alleanza con l’Spd per farsi affiancare come membro junior dai Grüne.

Questa nuova coalizione non sembrerebbe adesso avere i numeri per formare un governo, attestandosi ora al 46%, ma non è detto per il futuro: nel volgere di un anno possono succedere molti mutamenti.

Una riedizione della Große Koalition sarebbe al momento ancora possibile, avendo il 53% dei suffragi contro il pregresso 67.2%. Ma anche codesta possibile maggioranza sarebbe ben risicata e non sembrerebbe certo che la Csu la accetterebbe ancora.

Una coalizione Union, Fdp ed AfD avrebbe il 24% dei voti, ma sembrerebbe, almeno al momento, politicamente non possibile.

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Ripetiamo per chiarezza.

Di qui alle elezioni federali passa ancora un anno e qualche mese, per cui le proiezioni, già di per sé stesse alquanto incerte, potrebbero variare anche in modo molto significativo.

Sicuramente una grande influenza sarà svolta dagli esiti delle prossime elezioni di settembre in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ed a Berlino, ma ancor di più, a parere dello scrivente, dall’esito delle elezioni presidenziali americane e francesi.

A livello mondiale sembrerebbe infatti in via di dissoluzione la connection tra le diverse anime socialiste occidentali. A chi non piacesse il termine “socialiste“, potremmo suggerire il vocabolo “stataliste“. Una volta che fosse rotta questa nuova forma di internazionale, non sussisterebbero più a lungo forze amiche straniere a sostegno della Große Koalition in Germania.

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Il ribaltamento dell’ottica politica nel mondo occidentale sarebbe gravido di conseguenze di non indifferente portata.

Forse, la prima e più attesa conseguenza potrebbe essere l’abbandono dell’attuale politica finanziaria ed economica portata avanti dalla Banca Centrale Europea, con un’archiviazione definitiva delle attuali teorie economiche ed un ritorno a quella che è comunemente etichettata come “economia classica“.

→ Deutsche Welle. 2016-05-05. Study shows dips for SPD, Merkel’s bloc, more gains for AfD.

Support for Germany’s populist right-wing AfD has climbed to 15 percent, a new Deutschlandtrend survey shows. Merkel’s conservative bloc has dipped to 33 percent and her SPD partners to 20 percent.

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Pollster Infratest dimap delivered alarming trends for Germany’s long-established parties on Wednesday. A new survey showed further erosion in voter support for the governing coalition partners. The results were especially bitter for the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), Merkel’s junior partners at federal level.

The SPD, which peaked in 2005 at 35 percent, slumped to just 20 percent in Infratest’s sampling of 1,503 voters, conducted on Monday and Tuesday, for the public ARD television network’s channel WDR.

It is the SPD’s lowest level of support since 1997 in regular “DeutschlandTrend” surveys, usually conducted for the ARD on Sundays.

AfD supporters undeterred by anti-Islam agenda

The 15 percent for the AfD followed its weekend conference in Stuttgart where the populist party – regarded by some analysts as far-right – adopted an anti-Islam manifesto.

It’s anti-immigration platform prompted widespread condemnation by established parties facing a new upstart third-placed party in Germany’s political scene.

The 33 percent overall for Merkel’s bloc, comprising her Christian Democrats (CDU) and allied Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), ranks as the conservative’s lowest rating since October 2011 in trends regularly measured by pollsters for the ARD network.

Alarming returns for SPD’s Gabriel

Also alarming was the personal rating for SPD leader Sigmar Gabriel (pictured above, second from left): Only 38 percent of voters support the German vice-chancellor, SPD chairman and would-be aspirant to lead the SPD into next year’s federal parliamentary election.

His party colleague, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier (pictured above, left) topped the list of Germany’s favorite politicians, with 70 percent voter support, followed by conservative veteran Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble on 60 percent.

Merkel came third in the personality stakes, scoring 55 percent, a decline of 1 percentage point since the previous survey. Fourth was Greens’ co-leader Cem Özdemir.

EU-Turkey deal unpopular

Ask about the recent EU-Turkey deal, only 33 percent of those surveyed said they favored visa-free entry to Europe for Turkish citizens. Only 38 percent endorsed the deal, designed to redistribute asylum-seekers stuck in Greece across the European Union.

The CDU/CSU bloc, commonly known as the “Union,” once garnered well over 40 percent. Such results came most recently during 2005 and again around 2014, according data from six various pollsters collated in a chart maintained by the news magazine “Der Spiegel.”

Asked if they were satisfied or very satisfied with the work of Merkel’s coalition, 46 percent answered yes, down 2 percentage points.

Support for Greens, Left unchanged

Two other established parties held their ground: Support for the Greens remained unchanged at 13 percent, according to Infratest-dimap. The ex-Communist Left party climbed to 8 percent, up one percent.

The Greens’ rating follows Monday’s finalization of a regional coalition in Germany’s southwestern state of Baden-Württemberg, to be led for a second term by its charismatic Green’s Premier Winfried Kretschmann.

That coalition amounts to a relegation to junior partner for Merkel’s CDU, which until 2011 had governed Baden-Württemberg for decades.

Trailing on 6 percent nationwide and just above a 5 percent threshold for parliamentary entry is the liberal Free Democrat (DP) party, down one percentage point.

Germany’s 2013 federal election left the liberals without seats in the federal Bundestag parliament. In recent regional elections, it made several comebacks, for example, in the state of Rhineland-Palatinate.