Pubblicato in: Cina, Diplomazia, Russia

Mr Putin e Mr Xi rafforzano la collaborazione dopo il Colloquio.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-25.

Eurasia 001

Mr Putin e Mr Xi hanno avuto un colloquio televisivo, denso di argomenti trattati e di sostanziali progressi. Non tutti i contenuti sono noti.

* * * * * * *

«Russia and China should stand firm in rejecting Western interference and defending each other’s security interests»

«Their conversation, eight days after Putin spoke to U.S. President Joe Biden in a similar format, underscored how shared hostility to the West is bringing Moscow and Beijing closer together»

«At present, certain international forces under the guise of ‘democracy’ and ‘human rights’ are interfering in the internal affairs of China and Russia, and brutally trampling on international law and recognized norms of international relations»

«Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters that Xi had offered support to Putin for his push to obtain binding security guarantees for Russia from the West, saying he understood Moscow’s concerns»

«He said the pair also expressed their “negative view” of the creation of new military alliances such as the AUKUS partnership between Australia, Britain and the United States and the Indo-Pacific “Quad” of Australia, India, Japan and the United States»

«A new model of cooperation has been formed between our countries, based, among other things, on such principles as non-interference in internal affairs and respect for each other’s interests»

«I would like to note that we invariably support each other on issues of international sports cooperation, including rejection of any attempts to politicize sports and the Olympic movement»

«The Russian leader said bilateral trade was up 31% in the first 11 months of this year to $123 billion, and the two countries aimed to exceed $200 billion in the near future»

* * * * * * *

Il blocco sino-russo appare ogni giorno sempre più coeso e potente, sia politicamente sia militarmente sia economicamente, mentre l’enclave liberal socialista occidentale perde in continuazione potere militare, politico ed economico. Sta devolvendosi.

Gli Stati Uniti hanno ben poco da fare i gradassi con l’inflazione al 9.6%, e nel blocco europeo gli alimentari sono aumentati del 16.3% in un anno.

Moriranno schiacciati dalla inflazione che non sanno governare.

Ma non hanno perso il vizietto di voler fare la morale agli altri. Chissà chi mai si credono di essere!

Germania. Prezzi alimentari +16.3% su novembre 2020. Ecco la Fame. – Destatis.

USA. Nov21. Sorella miseria e comare fame portano il Producer Price Index a +9.6%.

Superpotenze militari. Gli equilibri sono rotti. Una guerra è opzione appetibile.

Il missile Zirkon viaggia a Mach 9 nella atmosfera: in sei minuti primi copre mille kilometri.

* * * * * * *


Putin and Xi cement partnership in face of Western pressure

– Xi accuses West of meddling in Chinese affairs

– Kremlin says Xi backs Putin push for security guarantees

– Putin, Xi expected to meet at Beijing Winter Olympics in Feb

– Trade between Russia and China rising sharply – Putin

* * * * * * *

Russia and China should stand firm in rejecting Western interference and defending each other’s security interests, presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping agreed in a video call on Wednesday.

Their conversation, eight days after Putin spoke to U.S. President Joe Biden in a similar format, underscored how shared hostility to the West is bringing Moscow and Beijing closer together.

“At present, certain international forces under the guise of ‘democracy’ and ‘human rights’ are interfering in the internal affairs of China and Russia, and brutally trampling on international law and recognized norms of international relations,” China’s state-run Xinhua news agency quoted Xi as saying.

“China and Russia should increase their joint efforts to more effectively safeguard the security interests of both parties.”

Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters that Xi had offered support to Putin for his push to obtain binding security guarantees for Russia from the West, saying he understood Moscow’s concerns.

He said the pair also expressed their “negative view” of the creation of new military alliances such as the AUKUS partnership between Australia, Britain and the United States and the Indo-Pacific “Quad” of Australia, India, Japan and the United States.

                         PRESSURE.

The call highlighted the ways in which Russia and China are drawing on each other for mutual support at a time of high tension in their relations with the West. China is under pressure over human rights and Russia is accused of threatening behaviour towards Ukraine.

The Kremlin said Putin briefed Xi on his conversation with Biden, in which the U.S. president warned Russia against invading Ukraine – which Moscow denies it is planning – and Putin set out his demand for security pledges.

“A new model of cooperation has been formed between our countries, based, among other things, on such principles as non-interference in internal affairs and respect for each other’s interests,” Putin told Xi.

He said he looked forward to meeting Xi at the Winter Olympics in Beijing in February – an event that the White House last week said U.S. government officials would boycott because of China’s human rights “atrocities” against Muslims in its western region of Xinjiang.

“I would like to note that we invariably support each other on issues of international sports cooperation, including rejection of any attempts to politicize sports and the Olympic movement,” Putin said.

Putin has used Russia’s partnership with China as a way of balancing U.S. influence while striking lucrative deals, especially on energy. He and Xi this year agreed to extend a 20-year friendship and cooperation treaty.

The Russian leader said bilateral trade was up 31% in the first 11 months of this year to $123 billion, and the two countries aimed to exceed $200 billion in the near future.

He said China was becoming an international centre for production of Russia’s Sputnik and Sputnik Light vaccines against COVID-19, with contracts signed with six manufacturers to make more than 150 million doses.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Mondiale

Usa. Cnn. Cop26 è un flop. Questa volta i liberal dicono (quasi) il vero.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-28.

Buco nell'acqua. Lago Berryessa. California. 001

«→→ If Glasgow fails, then Paris also failed ←←»

La Cnn è una storica roccaforte liberal, tutta grembiulini, aborto, clima, decarbonizzazione, lgbt, vaccini, etc.

Fa specie leggere articoli di tal fatta.

* * * * * * *

«A COP flop? Covid looms over crucial climate talks as some key leaders snub the event»

«world leaders together to make new commitments to save the planet»

«There are also worries over the symbolic absence of several key leaders»

«Chinese President Xi Jinping, leader of the world’s largest emitter, is unlikely to attend, having not left the country since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic»

«The pandemic is part of the reason some world leaders say they won’t attend»

«Russian President Vladimir Putin and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro have confirmed they aren’t coming, while yet to confirm are Mexico’s Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida»

«If a world leader chooses not to attend for whatever reason, it sends a very clear signal that climate simply isn’t at the top of their priority list and depletes the momentum going into the summit»

«”It cannot be entirely coincidental that many of those reluctant to attend COP in person happen to lead countries that are high emitters or producers of fossil fuels»

«But even by that metric, the picture is bleak. Saudi Arabia made a pledge to achieve net zero on Sunday, but only by 2060, which scientists say is 10 years too late»

«We need hard commitments from India, Saudi Arabia, China, South Africa, Brazil on switching to clean energy and helping poorer countries make the switch»

«Ambition is one thing; real-world action — like cutting coal, scrapping cars, planting trees and putting money on the table — is what matters now»

«→→ If Glasgow fails, then Paris also failed ←←»

«That’s hardly a sign of global unity on climate»

* * * * * * *

Cop26. O l’ovest paga oppure India resterà a lungo con il carbone. ~5 trilioni di Usd.

«→→ If Glasgow fails, then Paris also failed ←←»

Questa frase sommarizza il punto centrale in poche parole.

Joe Biden e Mr Johnson aveva posto attese smisurate sul successo di Cop26, essendosi convinti di poter ancora imporre a tutto l’orbe terracqueo la loro Weltanschauung.

Il flop di Cop26 è il loro flop, sarà un’altra debacles di Joe Biden, che si somma a tutte le altre.

La Harris-Biden Administration ha appena perso la maggioranza in seno alle Nazioni Unite, maggioranza saldamente adesso in mano alla Cina ed ai suoi alleati.

Questa nuova débâcle di Joe Biden segna la tappa epocale della perdita di controllo delle UN.

Si deve constatare come il potere politico dei liberal si trovi adesso ad essere confinato nella loro ristretta enclave.

Che quella sia il loro ‘mondo’ possono crederselo più che bene, ma che quello sia il ‘mondo’ se lo dovranno ben togliere dalla testa.

I liberal occidentali sono sicuramente liberi di suicidarsi: nessuno li fermi!

* * * * * * *

A COP flop? Covid looms over crucial climate talks as some key leaders snub the event.

Just months ago, consensus was growing that COP26 would be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to hit the reset button on the climate crisis, bringing world leaders together to make new commitments to save the planet.

While the summit in Glasgow, Scotland, is still of vital importance in the battle against climate change, there is now a question mark on whether it will adequately put flesh on the bones of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which is its main purpose.

During a summer of extreme weather and new science showing that climate change is happening faster than we previously understood, there was a real sense that COP26 would be a huge moment for the global community to come together and lay out clear, real-world actions to halve emissions over this decade with the aim of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. But less than a week out, things are looking shaky.

British government officials shared with CNN their concerns that some of the most important nations in the G20 have yet to disclose their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) on cutting emissions with just days to go until the summit kicks off.

There are also worries over the symbolic absence of several key leaders. Chinese President Xi Jinping, leader of the world’s largest emitter, is unlikely to attend, having not left the country since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.

British officials had hoped that the UK’s successful vaccine rollout and the broader global response to the pandemic would mean the summit would go ahead as close to normal as possible. However, in recent weeks, the UK’s infection rate has soared and last week the country saw its deadliest day since March. The consequences of lifting almost all Covid restrictions before summer and returning life to normal have become impossible to ignore.

Ministers are now facing calls to impose further restrictions, and Health Secretary Sajid Javid has floated the possibility of introducing vaccine passports and other measures for those most vulnerable to the virus.

Questions are now being raised over how this all might affect COP26, which 25,000 people are expected to attend amid planned mass protests, as well as potential rail and bus strikes.

The pandemic is part of the reason some world leaders say they won’t attend. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro have confirmed they aren’t coming, while yet to confirm are Mexico’s Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida — all G20 leaders who are significant in the climate discourse because of their countries’ emissions, fossil fuel production, or both.

“If a world leader chooses not to attend for whatever reason, it sends a very clear signal that climate simply isn’t at the top of their priority list and depletes the momentum going into the summit,” says Mark Lynas, author of the book “Our Final Warning: Six Degrees of Climate Emergency.”

“It cannot be entirely coincidental that many of those reluctant to attend COP in person happen to lead countries that are high emitters or producers of fossil fuels,” Lynas says.

Underscoring the importance of COP26, Lynas says that Glasgow’s gathering “won’t just be a shindig where people can pose for photos,” but our “last real chance of setting out measures to meet the commitments made in Paris” of limiting warming to 1.5C and halving emissions by 2030.

UK government officials have played down the significance of any specific no-shows, stating that what really matters are commitments on emissions and spending that accompany any national delegation. They are awake to the fact, however, that Glasgow needs real-world commitments to match the rhetoric of Paris, and anything resembling a lack of seriousness from some of the most powerful or big-emitting countries sets the tone for an unsuccessful summit.

But even by that metric, the picture is bleak. Saudi Arabia made a pledge to achieve net zero on Sunday, but only by 2060, which scientists say is 10 years too late. And as China unveiled its climate road map the same day, it failed to mention any actual increase in its ambitions on slashing greenhouse gas emissions, despite vowing to cut fossil fuel use to 20% by 2060.

Lynas reasons that as the scientific consensus on climate change is now even more comprehensive than in 2015, the only reason anyone might be reluctant to make the necessary commitments is “short-term financial considerations.”

Lynas isn’t alone in his belief of how serious this moment is.

“This COP must be very honest about how little time we actually have,” says Mary Robinson, a former UN High Representative on human rights, and campaigner for climate justice.

“It’s not just a step along the way, but the moment we need to come good on Paris and commit to even more ambitious goals. We need hard commitments from India, Saudi Arabia, China, South Africa, Brazil on switching to clean energy and helping poorer countries make the switch. There is no wriggle room left.”

At this late stage ahead of COP26, it’s not just Covid putting the summit at risk.

The global energy crisis has served as a reminder that there are very few ready-to-use alternatives to gas and coal, while data shows that without serious government intervention, humans are not ready to stop burning fossils any time soon.

A report backed by the UN and published earlier this year revealed that, despite commitments made in Paris and a reduction due to the global pandemic, “emissions are rapidly recovering” and are “nowhere close to reduction targets.” Meanwhile, “greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continue at record levels, committing the planet to dangerous future warming.”

That’s why COP26 is so important. As UN Secretary-General António Guterres puts it, unless something happens in this “critical year for climate action,” then “limiting warming to 1.5°C will be impossible, with catastrophic consequences for people and the planet on which we depend.”

There has been much focus on to what extent the summit in Glasgow will be a success for Boris Johnson, given he is hosting this critical meeting. However, British government officials pointed out to CNN, not unreasonably, that Glasgow is about proving whether the commitments made in Paris are possible. Ambition is one thing; real-world action — like cutting coal, scrapping cars, planting trees and putting money on the table — is what matters now. If Glasgow fails, then Paris also failed.

For all the optimism surrounding COP26 earlier this year, as the event gets nearer, the mood music isn’t great. Multiple sources have told CNN that fossil fuel producing countries have been fighting against any firm language committing to the 1.5C target, and China has publicly accused the US and UK of moving goalposts from the original top end of 2C in Paris.

Reports have emerged in British media that some of the world’s biggest coal producing nations are trying to water down the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) forthcoming report of findings that threaten their national economic interest. Some of those nations — Australia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Japan — happen to be the same ones that either failed to update their emissions-cutting pledges or have done so without any meaningful increase in their pledges.

That’s hardly a sign of global unity on climate.

COP26 comes as the world reaches a point of no return. If the commitments in the Paris Agreement are not met, then, the vast majority of the science suggests, it will be too late to curb the long-term impact of global warming.

What must be exasperating for Johnson is that as he gets ready to host this summit of huge importance, the solution to the greatest threat humanity faces is well known and perfectly achievable. It just relies on his fellow global leaders caring enough. And somehow, in 2021, that is not something that can be banked on.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Regno Unito, Russia

COP26. Si preannuncia un flop galattico. Nuovi aggiornamenti.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-26.

Buco nell'acqua. Lago Berryessa. California. 001

Buco nel’acqua.

* * * * * * *

A quanto sembrerebbe di capire, almeno sulla base dei dati al momento disponibili, non solo Cop26 ben difficilmente potrà riuscire a trovare un accordo generale sul ‘clima’, ma sempre più verosimilmente sarà un flop galattico. Maggiori siano le attese, più grandi saranno le disillusioni.

Se ciò avvenisse, sarebbe la certificazione di morte dell’ideologia del ‘clima’, elemento cardine della dottrina liberal. Con tutte le conseguenze economiche e politiche che ne seguirebbero.

«have raised unreasonable expectations for the event»

* * * * * * *

«Fears grow that Glasgow climate change summit will fall short of its lofty aims»

«Pressure already mounting for leaders to reconvene as early as next year to set new targets if conference fails in its goals.»

«Cop26 officials are seeking an agreement for new climate change targets from global leaders as soon as next year, as concerns grow that the Glasgow summit will fall short of its aims»

«→→ The summit, in a week’s time, is highly unlikely to secure commitments that will keep global warming below 1.5C ←←»

«China, the world’s biggest emitter, is yet to present its own plans and hopes are vanishing that they will be ambitious enough to declare the summit an outright success»

«Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, is unlikely to attend the event»

«Russia, a major fossil fuel producer, has also failed to commit to more ambitious emissions cuts. Vladimir Putin, its president, has said he will not attend the event»

«Perceived failure at the summit would undermine the British Government’s attempt to present itself as a global climate leader»

«There is also frustration among the British Cop26 team that Boris Johnson and other ministers have raised unreasonable expectations for the event»

«Mr Johnson has rowed back his rhetoric on the event in recent days»

«The problem is when you say you’re going to win the Premier League and success is actually defined by finishing 10th.”»

«Domestic politics in the US is holding back President Joe Biden’s own climate agenda, and the energy crisis is putting pressure on China’s ability to cut its emissions»

* * * * * * *

La posta in gioco è davvero molto elevata.

I liberal americani e, soprattutto, europei avevano posto grandi aspettative di ottenere un consenso plebiscitario alla Cop26. Per Lagarde, von der Leyen e consiglio europeo il ‘clima’ era diventato elemento di prioritaria importanza.

Un fallimento di Cop 26 sarebbe il loro fallimento, anche perché sono impantanate in una stagflazione sempre più severa.

* * * * * * *

Cop26: Fears grow that Glasgow climate change summit will fall short of its lofty aims.

Pressure already mounting for leaders to reconvene as early as next year to set new targets if conference fails in its goals.

Cop26 officials are seeking an agreement for new climate change targets from global leaders as soon as next year, as concerns grow that the Glasgow summit will fall short of its aims.

The summit, in a week’s time, is highly unlikely to secure commitments that will keep global warming below 1.5C, officials and observers say.

It came as leaked documents revealed that major emitters had lobbied the United Nations to tone down a UN scientific report on the impact of climate change.

Current global pledges put the world on track for 2.9C of warming, according to the organisation Climate Action Tracker.

China, the world’s biggest emitter, is yet to present its own plans and hopes are vanishing that they will be ambitious enough to declare the summit an outright success.

Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, is unlikely to attend the event, having not left China since the coronavirus pandemic began.

Russia, a major fossil fuel producer, has also failed to commit to more ambitious emissions cuts. Vladimir Putin, its president, has said he will not attend the event.

                         ‘Everything is gearing up for a pretty nasty fight’

Perceived failure at the summit would undermine the British Government’s attempt to present itself as a global climate leader in its first big, post-Brexit diplomatic role.

Smaller developing states most vulnerable to climate change are now leading a push for countries to return as soon as next year to provide new targets to cut emissions before 2030, as well as new financing.

Under the Paris Agreement, governments would not have to present new plans until 2025, for new 2035 targets.

“There will be a huge amount of pressure for some commitment to return to the table sooner than 2025,” said Peter Betts, a former lead climate negotiator for the UK.

A combination of global and domestic politics, as well as restrictions imposed by the Covid-19 pandemic, have undermined the UK’s efforts to secure a clear win.

“Everything is gearing up for a pretty nasty fight,” said Li Shuo, a veteran observer of the talks and expert at Greenpeace China.

Mr Li said Cop26 could be the most difficult event of its kind since Copenhagen in 2009, when countries left without an agreement.

                         PM’s ‘unreasonable’ expectations

There is also frustration among the British Cop26 team that Boris Johnson and other ministers have raised unreasonable expectations for the event.

Officials said it had always been clear that achieving the 1.5C aim would not be possible in one event, and that current pledges are more ambitious than would have been thought possible in recent years.

“Tackling climate change is one of the greatest challenges the world faces. There is no easy single solution,” a source on the Cop26 team said.

Mr Johnson has rowed back his rhetoric on the event in recent days, telling Bloomberg this week that “Cop26 was always going to be extremely tough”, in contrast to earlier comments.

One observer said: “The problem is when you say you’re going to win the Premier League and success is actually defined by finishing 10th.”

The Queen is among those to have expressed frustration at the pace of global climate action in the run-up to the summit, after she was overheard saying it was “very irritating when they talk, but they don’t do”.

Domestic politics in the US is holding back President Joe Biden’s own climate agenda, and the energy crisis is putting pressure on China’s ability to cut its emissions. “Politics was always going to make this really difficult,” said Mr Betts.

                         Difficulties caused by coronavirus pandemic

Meanwhile, Covid-19 is also complicating arrangements and exacerbating tensions between some of the countries.

Social distancing rules mean some delegations fear they will not be able to access some of the negotiating rooms. Travel and quarantine rules are also creating frustration within some governments, particularly from developing countries.

“I think it’s been underestimated just how hard it is to organise a meeting with Covid everywhere,” one observer said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if half of us get ill.”

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, India, Russia

G20. Roma. Cina, Russia ed India non vogliono abbandonare il carbone.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-22.

Buco nell'acqua. Lago Berryessa. California. 001

Buco nell’acqua.


Il G20 è la periodica riunione dei venti stati economicamente più progrediti a livello mondiale.

La riunione che si terrà dal 30 al 31 ottobre a Roma non verterà però sui problemi economici mondiali, come la stagflazione e la crisi del debito pubblico.

Tutto il programma è centrato sull’abbandono del carbone quale fonte energetica.

Ma sembrerebbe essere verosimile che sia un grandioso buco nell’acqua.

Cina, Russia ed India non intendono minimamente abbandonare il carbone quale fonte energetica.

Né Mr Xi né Mr Putin saranno presenti.

* * * * * * *

«Rome G20 precedes UN ‘COP 26’ climate meeting in Scotland»

«Phasing out coal a big hurdle ahead of Rome Oct. 30-31 meeting»

«Chinese, Russian leaders unlikely to be in Rome»

«The Group of 20 rich countries are divided over phasing out coal and committing to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius as they prepare for a crucial summit in Rome next week»

«The need to curb emissions will be high on the agenda of the Rome G20 gathering on Oct. 30-31, seen as a key stepping stone immediately ahead of broader United Nations climate talks, called COP 26, to be held in Glasgow, Scotland»

«So far big polluters such as China and India have dug in their heels and little progress has been made»

«the problem is in the commitment to 1.5 degrees and in the phase out of coal and fossil fuels by China, India and Russia»

«They also failed to reach unanimous agreement on fixing dates to end fossil fuel subsidies, halt international financing of coal projects and phase out coal power altogether»

«→→ At least four G20 leaders are not expected to come to Rome, including China’s Xi Jinping, at the helm of the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitter, and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, head of the largest energy producer ←←»

«→→ Neither Russia, China nor India have committed to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050 ←←»

«→→ So far China is proving most reluctant to commit to the 1.5 degree ceiling, while India is most intransigent in not pledging net zero emissions by 2050 ←←»

* * * * * * *

Senza un accordo con Cina, Russia ed India, sarà una riunione utile solo a sancire la morte del ‘clima’, sempre poi che sia mai esistito.

* * * * * * *


G20 split over coal, 1.5 degree climate limit ahead of Rome summit – sources.

– Rome G20 precedes UN ‘COP 26’ climate meeting in Scotland

– Phasing out coal a big hurdle ahead of Rome Oct. 30-31 meeting

– Progress seen unlikely before sherpas meet next week

– Chinese, Russian leaders unlikely to be in Rome

*

Rome, Oct 21 (Reuters) – The Group of 20 rich countries are divided over phasing out coal and committing to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius as they prepare for a crucial summit in Rome next week, sources familiar with the negotiations said.

The need to curb emissions will be high on the agenda of the Rome G20 gathering on Oct. 30-31, seen as a key stepping stone immediately ahead of broader United Nations climate talks, called COP 26, to be held in Glasgow, Scotland.

So far big polluters such as China and India have dug in their heels and little progress has been made since G20 energy and environment ministers met in Naples in July, said three sources, asking not to be named due to the sensitivity of the talks.

“Countries are not moving, at the moment they are still just making sure their positions are heard loud and clear,” said one of the sources.

However he added that such intransigence was normal at this stage and any concessions were unlikely to come before G20 climate sherpas meet face-to-face next Thursday and Friday, immediately before their leaders’ weekend meeting.

“Where I see the problem is in the commitment to 1.5 degrees and in the phase out of coal and fossil fuels by China, India and Russia,” said another source, a G20 minister.

In Naples, energy and environment ministers recognised the desirability of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees but fell short of a clear commitment to achieve the goal.

They also failed to reach unanimous agreement on fixing dates to end fossil fuel subsidies, halt international financing of coal projects and phase out coal power altogether, asking leaders to bridge the gaps at the upcoming Rome summit.

                         BIG-HITTERS STAY HOME.

At least four G20 leaders are not expected to come to Rome, including China’s Xi Jinping, at the helm of the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitter, and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, head of the largest energy producer.

One source said while such absences were “not a great political signal,” they would not necessarily prevent progress.

Neither Russia, China nor India have committed to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050, considered a vital goal in limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees.

So far China is proving most reluctant to commit to the 1.5 degree ceiling, while India is most intransigent in not pledging net zero emissions by 2050, one of the sources said.

China and India are also among a group of countries that have not yet presented new national plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) ahead of COP 26, on how they will help curb climate change.

The COP26 president, Britain’s Alok Sharma, said in a speech this month the G20, which accounts for 80% of global emissions, would be “make, or break” for achieving success in Glasgow.

However, one of the sources said breakthroughs were more likely in Glasgow than in Rome.

Big emitters like China, India and Russia tend to feel pressured and hectored by the Western countries at the G20, he said, making them defensive and reluctant to concede ground.

The much larger UN forum was more “neutral” and conducive to compromise, he said.

The Rome G20 will also focus on the coronavirus pandemic and how to foster global economic recovery, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who will chair the meeting, said on Wednesday.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Mondiale, India, Russia

Dushanbe. Russia e Cina integrano l’Iran nello SCO. Altra débâcle irredimibile di Joe Biden.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-27.

2021-09-27__ Iran entra nello SCO 001

Leaders Of Russia, China-Led Security Blocs Meet To Discuss Afghanistan

«Russia and its Central Asian allies have launched two days of talks in the Tajik capital to discuss the situation in Afghanistan a month after Taliban militants entered Kabul and seized power in the war-torn country.

Leaders of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) met for a summit in the Tajik capital on September 16, to be followed a day later by a gathering of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which includes China. ….

Founded in 2001, the SCO initially consisted of China, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan before India and Pakistan joined in 2017. ….

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, whose country is an observer member of the SCO and keen to join the grouping, will attend the gathering.»

* * *

Iran to gain Central Asia clout with entry into SCO security club.

«Iran is set to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization led by China and Russia as a full member, a move experts say will give Tehran more influence over Central Asia — including war-torn neighbor Afghanistan.

“Today, we will launch procedures to admit Iran as a member state of the SCO, and Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Qatar as new dialogue partners,” Chinese President Xi Jinping said via video link on Friday, addressing the SCO Council of Heads of State in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.

Xi said he was confident the “growing SCO family” would “be the builders of world peace, contributors to global development and defenders of the international order,” according to an English translation shared by China’s official Xinhua News Agency.»

* * *

Russia. Pakistan, Greater Eurasian Partnership ed Eurasian Economic Union.

«Russia e Cina stanno sviluppando un grandioso progetto strategico per l’erezione di una Greater Eurasian Partnership volta a riunire in una comunità di intenti e di reciproci benefici tutte le popolazioni euroasiatiche, ossia più di quattro miliardi di persone. I loro sono diplomatici dilungo corso, passati attraverso dure selezioni, ben diversi dai ministri degli esteri occidentali, che, tra l’altro, stanno in carica per tempo molto limitato, cambiando di volta in volta l’indirizzo politico.

*

Ad oriente prese dapprima campo la Sco, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, nata come meccanismo per favorire la risoluzione di dispute territoriali tra i sei paesi aderenti – Cina, Russia, Kazakistan, Kirghizistan, Tagikistan e Uzbekistan – l’organizzazione è andata progressivamente istituzionalizzandosi, intensificando la cooperazione tra i suoi membri tanto su questioni di sicurezza quanto in ambiti come quello economico, energetico e culturale.

Mesi addietro, senza alcuna tromba trionfante, ha preso corpo il Rcep. …

Adesso sta emergendo il progetto strategico russo della Greater Eurasian Partnership ed Eurasian Economic Union. Come dicono i nomi stessi, sono un piano che si articolerà su decenni, ma che saranno decenni di crescita comune.

“The Greater Eurasian Partnership has two broad economic goals. First, it aims to connect Russia and the EAEU to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Its second, lesser goal is to move beyond China and connect the EAEU with Iran, India, and Southeast Asia.”»

* * * * * * *

                         In sintesi.

– Stati Uniti ed Europa hanno da lunga pezza annoverato l’Iran tra gli stati canaglia, fomentatori del terrorismo, colpendolo con un totale bando e coprendolo di sanzioni.

– Russia e Cina lo hanno invece ammesso a pieno titolo nello Sco, e di lì nella Greater Eurasian Partnership ed Eurasian Economic Union, una unione politica, militare ed economica, organizzazioni basate sulla non ingerenza negli affari interni e su rapporti paritetici.

– Sono improvvisamente mutati gli equilibri geopolitici mondiali a favore del Blocco Euroasiatico.

– Questa ulteriore débâcle della Harris-Biden Administration evidenzia molto chiaramente quanto poco pesino sia gli Stati Uniti sia l’Unione Europea.

Lasciamo alla arguta penna di Maurizio Blondet la descrizione dettagliata della risposta sinorussa all’Aukus.

*


La risposta di Russia e Cina all’AUKUS.

                         Integrano l’Iran

 Il magistrale pezzo di Pepe Escobar che ha seguito l’incontro della Shanghai Cooperation Organization e Dushanbe. Titolo originale:

                         L’Eurasia prende forma: come la SCO ha appena ribaltato l’ordine mondiale

Sotto lo sguardo di un Occidente senza timone, la riunione del ventesimo anniversario dell’Organizzazione per la cooperazione di Shanghai è stata focalizzata su due risultati chiave: dare forma all’Afghanistan e dare il via a un’integrazione eurasiatica a spettro completo.

Pepe Escobar

I due momenti salienti dello storico vertice del 20 ° anniversario dell’Organizzazione per la cooperazione di Shanghai (SCO) a Dushanbe, in Tagikistan, dovevano venire dai discorsi programmatici di – chi altro – i leader del partenariato strategico Russia-Cina.

Xi Jinping: “Oggi avvieremo le procedure per ammettere l’Iran come membro a pieno titolo della SCO”.

Vladimir Putin: “Vorrei sottolineare il Memorandum d’intesa firmato oggi tra il Segretariato della SCO e la Commissione Economica Eurasiatica. È chiaramente progettato per promuovere l’idea della Russia di stabilire un partenariato della Grande Eurasia che copra la SCO, l’EAEU (Unione economica eurasiatica), l’ASEAN (Associazione delle nazioni del sud-est asiatico) e l’iniziativa Belt and Road della Cina (BRI).”

In breve, durante il fine settimana, l’Iran è stato sancito nel suo legittimo ruolo eurasiatico principale e tutti i percorsi di integrazione eurasiatica sono convergenti verso un nuovo paradigma geopolitico e geoeconomico globale,.

(MB – L’Iran ha oggi due alleati veri, che si chiamano Russia e Cina. Sarà più difficile per Israele indurre gli americani a “bomb, bomb, bomb Iran” e fare canagliate come a uno stato-paria e isolato. Anche la speranza di Biden di trattare di nuovo gli accordi sul nucleare iraniano (che Teheran ha adempiuto fedelmente e Trump ha rotto) strappando a Teheran in cambio della levata delle sanzioni, in più, la rinuncia di missili di portata tale da colpire Israele, non è più praticabile. L’Iran con a fianco la Cina, cliente del suo petrolio e largitrice di investimenti, + può resistere a questo genere di ricatti)

“Dushanbe si è rivelato come l’ultimo crossover diplomatico. Il presidente Xi ha rifiutato con fermezza qualsiasi “lezione supponente” e ha sottolineato percorsi di sviluppo e modelli di governance compatibili con le condizioni nazionali. Proprio come Putin, ha sottolineato il focus complementare di BRI e EAEU, e di fatto ha sintetizzato un vero Manifesto multilateralista per il Sud del mondo.

Proprio sul punto, il presidente Kassym-Jomart Tokayev del Kazakistan ha osservato che la SCO dovrebbe promuovere “lo sviluppo di una macroeconomia regionale”. Ciò si riflette nella spinta della SCO a iniziare a utilizzare le valute locali per il commercio, aggirando il dollaro USA.

                         Guarda quel quadrilatero

Dushanbe non è stato solo un letto di rose. L’Emomali Rahmon del Tagikistan, fedele musulmano laico ed ex membro del Partito Comunista dell’URSS – al potere da non meno di 29 anni, rieletto per la quinta volta nel 2020 con il 90% dei voti – ha subito denunciato la “sharia medievale” dei talebani 2.0 e hanno affermato di aver già “abbandonato la loro precedente promessa di formare un governo inclusivo”.

Rahmon … era già al potere quando i talebani conquistarono Kabul nel 1996. Era obbligato a sostenere pubblicamente i suoi cugini tagiki contro l’”espansione dell’ideologia estremista” in Afghanistan – che di fatto preoccupa tutti i membri della SCO -afferma quando si tratta di distruggere loschi abiti jihadisti di stampo ISIS-K.

La polpa della questione a Dushanbe era nei bilaterali – e un quadrilatero.

Prendi il bilaterale tra il ministro degli Esteri indiano S. Jaishankar e il FM cinese Wang Yi. Jaishankar ha affermato che la Cina non dovrebbe vedere “le sue relazioni con l’India attraverso la lente di un paese terzo” e si è preoccupato di sottolineare che l’India “non sottoscrive alcuna teoria dello scontro di civiltà”.

È stata una vendita piuttosto difficile considerando che il primo vertice Quad si svolge questa settimana a Washington, DC, ospitato da quel “paese terzo” che ora è immerso nel profondo della modalità di scontro di civiltà contro la Cina.

Il primo ministro pakistano Imran Khan è satto in una serie di bilaterali: ha incontrato i presidenti di Iran, Bielorussia, Uzbekistan e Kazakistan. La posizione diplomatica ufficiale del Pakistan è che l’Afghanistan non dovrebbe essere abbandonato, ma impegnato.

Quella posizione aggiungeva sfumature a quanto aveva spiegato l’inviato presidenziale speciale russo per gli affari della SCO Bakhtiyer Khakimov sull’assenza di Kabul al tavolo della SCO: “In questa fase, tutti gli Stati membri hanno capito che non ci sono ragioni per un invito finché non c’è un legittimo, governo generalmente riconosciuto in Afghanistan”.

E questo ci porta all’incontro chiave della SCO: un quadrilatero con i ministri degli Esteri di Russia, Cina, Pakistan e Iran.

Il ministro degli Esteri pakistano Qureshi ha affermato: “Stiamo monitorando se tutti i gruppi sono inclusi o meno nel governo [afgano]”. Il nocciolo della questione è che, d’ora in poi, Islamabad coordinerà la strategia della SCO sull’Afghanistan e farà da intermediario nelle trattative talebane con i leader di spicco tagiki, uzbeki e hazara. Questo alla fine aprirà la strada verso un governo inclusivo riconosciuto a livello regionale dai paesi membri della SCO.

Il presidente iraniano Ebrahim Raisi è stato accolto calorosamente da tutti, specialmente dopo il suo energico discorso programmatico, un classico dell’Asse della Resistenza. Il suo rapporto bilaterale con il presidente bielorusso Aleksandr Lukashenko ruotava attorno a una discussione sul “confronto delle sanzioni”. Secondo Lukashenko: “Se le sanzioni hanno fatto del male alla Bielorussia, all’Iran e ad altri paesi, è stato solo perché ne siamo responsabili noi stessi. Non sempre siamo stati negoziabili, non sempre abbiamo trovato la strada da percorrere sotto la pressione delle sanzioni».

Considerando che Teheran è pienamente informata sul ruolo della SCO di Islamabad in termini di Afghanistan, non ci sarà bisogno di schierare la brigata Fatemiyoun – informalmente conosciuta come Afghan Hezbollah – per difendere gli Hazara sciiti. Fatemiyoun si è formata nel 2012 ed è stata determinante in Siria nella lotta contro Daesh, soprattutto a Palmyra. Ma se ISIS-K non scompare, questa è una storia completamente diversa.

Particolarmente importante per i membri della SCO Iran e India sarà il futuro del porto di Chabahar. Questa rimane la mossa cripto-Via della seta dell’India per collegarla all’Afghanistan e all’Asia centrale. Il successo geoeconomico di Chabahar dipende più che mai da un Afghanistan stabile – ed è qui che gli interessi di Teheran convergono pienamente con la spinta SCO di Russia-Cina.

Ciò che la Dichiarazione SCO di Dushanbe del 2021 ha enunciato sull’Afghanistan è rivelatore:

L’Afghanistan dovrebbe essere uno stato indipendente, neutrale, unito, democratico e pacifico, libero da terrorismo, guerra e droga.

È fondamentale avere un governo inclusivo in Afghanistan, con rappresentanti di tutti i gruppi etnici, religiosi e politici della società afgana.

Gli Stati membri della SCO, sottolineando l’importanza dei molti anni di ospitalità e assistenza efficace forniti dai paesi regionali e vicini ai rifugiati afghani, considerano importante che la comunità internazionale si impegni attivamente per facilitare il loro ritorno dignitoso, sicuro e sostenibile al loro patria.

Per quanto possa sembrare un sogno impossibile, questo è il messaggio unificato di Russia, Cina, Iran, India, Pakistan e i vari ‘stan’ dell’Asia centrale. Si spera che il primo ministro pakistano Imran Khan sia all’altezza del compito e pronto per il suo primo piano della SCO.

                         Quella tormentata penisola occidentale

Le Nuove Vie della Seta sono state lanciate ufficialmente otto anni fa da Xi Jinping, prima ad Astana – ora Nur-Sultan – e poi a Giacarta.

Questo è il modo in cui l’ho segnalato all’epoca.

L’annuncio è arrivato vicino a un vertice della SCO, poi a Bishkek. La SCO, ampiamente liquidata a Washington e Bruxelles come un semplice talk shop, stava già superando il suo mandato originale di combattere le “tre forze del male” – terrorismo, separatismo ed estremismo – e comprendeva la politica e la geoeconomia.

Nel 2013 c’è stata una trilaterale Xi-Putin-Rouhani. Pechino ha espresso pieno sostegno al programma nucleare pacifico dell’Iran (ricordate, questo è stato due anni prima della firma del Piano d’azione congiunto globale, noto anche come JCPOA).

Nonostante molti esperti all’epoca lo negassero, c’era davvero un fronte comune Cina-Russia-Iran in Siria (Asse di Resistenza in azione). Lo Xinjiang veniva promosso come snodo chiave per l’Eurasian Land Bridge. Il gasdotto è stato al centro della strategia cinese, dal petrolio del Kazakistan al gas del Turkmenistan. Alcune persone potrebbero persino ricordare quando Hillary Clinton, in qualità di Segretario di Stato, si è pronunciata in modo lirico su una Nuova Via della Seta a propulsione americana.

Ora confrontare il Manifesto del Multilateralismo di Xi a Dushanbe otto anni dopo, e ricordare come la SCO “ha dimostrato di essere un ottimo esempio di multilateralismo nel 21 ° secolo”, e “ha svolto un ruolo importante nel migliorare la voce dei paesi in via di sviluppo. ”

L’importanza strategica di questo vertice SCO che si terrà subito dopo l’Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) a Vladivostok non può essere sopravvalutata abbastanza. L’EEF si concentra, ovviamente, sull’Estremo Oriente russo e sostanzialmente promuove l’interconnessione tra Russia e Asia. È un fulcro assolutamente chiave del partenariato eurasiatico della Russia.

Una cornucopia di accordi è all’orizzonte: l’espansione dall’Estremo Oriente all’Artico e lo sviluppo della rotta del Mare del Nord, e coinvolgendo tutto, dai metalli preziosi e l’energia verde alla sovranità digitale che scorre attraverso i corridoi logistici tra Asia ed Europa attraverso la Russia.

Come ha suggerito Putin nel suo discorso programmatico, questo è ciò che riguarda la Greater Eurasia Partnership: l’Unione economica dell’Eurasia (EAEU), la BRI (Belt and Road Initiative), l’iniziativa dell’India, l’ASEAN e ora la SCO, che si sviluppa in una rete armonizzata, gestita in modo cruciale da “sovrano centri decisionali”.

                         Grande Asia di sovrani ed eguali

Quindi, se la BRI propone una “comunità di futuro condiviso per il genere umano” molto taoista, il progetto russo, concettualmente, propone un dialogo di civiltà (già evocato dagli anni di Khatami in Iran) e progetti economico-politici sovrani. Sono, infatti, complementari.

Glenn Diesen, professore all’Università della Norvegia sudorientale e redattore della rivista Russia in Global Affairs, è tra i pochissimi studiosi di spicco che stanno analizzando in profondità questo processo. Il suo ultimo libro racconta in modo straordinario l’intera storia nel suo titolo: L’ Europa come la penisola occidentale della Grande Eurasia: regioni geoeconomiche in un mondo multipolare .

Non è chiaro se gli eurocrati di Bruxelles – schiavi dell’atlantismo e incapaci di cogliere le potenzialità della Grande Eurasia – finiranno per esercitare una reale autonomia strategica.

Diesen evoca in dettaglio i paralleli tra la strategia russa e quella cinese. Fa notare come la Cina “sta perseguendo un’iniziativa geoeconomica a tre pilastri sviluppando la leadership tecnologica attraverso il suo piano China 2025, nuovi corridoi di trasporto attraverso la sua Belt and Road Initiative da trilioni di dollari e stabilendo nuovi strumenti finanziari come banche, sistemi di pagamento e internazionalizzazione. dello yuan. Allo stesso modo, la Russia sta perseguendo la sovranità tecnologica, sia nella sfera digitale che oltre, così come nuovi corridoi di trasporto come la rotta del Mare del Nord attraverso l’Artico e, soprattutto, nuovi strumenti finanziari”.

L’intero Sud del mondo, stordito dal crollo accelerato dell’Impero occidentale e dal suo ordine unilaterale basato su regole, sembra ora pronto ad abbracciare il nuovo solco, pienamente mostrato a Dushanbe: una Grande Eurasia multipolare di sovrani eguali.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Diplomazia, Stati Uniti

Xi e Biden hanno avuto una telefonata di novanta minuti. Evitare i conflitti.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-12.

Cina Usa Commercio 001

È un Joe Biden screditato in patria ed all’estero per la débâcle in Afghanistan, attanagliato tra una crescente inflazione ed una stagnazione economica, stagflazione, che ha preso l’iniziativa di telefonare a Mr Xi. Ma non è più il Joe Biden tracotante della prima telefonata di febbraio.

* * * * * * *

Usa. Nonfarm Payrolls 253,000. La débâcle economica di Joe Biden.

Usa. Corte Suprema rifiuta di bloccare la legge del Texas che limita l’aborto.

Cina. Biden travolto da critiche interne ed estere per la vergognosa débâcle in Afganistan.

Usa. Biden. La Cnn accusa l’Amministrazione delle femmine di mancanza di ‘competenza’.

Usa. The New York Times accusa Biden di aver detto detto cose false

Usa. 2021Q2, PPI 6.2%, CPI 6.5%, PCE 4.2%.

Afganistan. Biden, lo zimbello del mondo. I media lo abbandonano irati. Terrorismo.

Afganistan. La débâcle americana è peggio del Vietnam. È devoluzione dell’America.

* * * * * * *

                         Xinhua.

«Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday morning took a phone call from his U.S. counterpart, Joseph R. Biden, and the two leaders had candid, in-depth and extensive strategic communication and exchanges on China-U.S. relations and relevant issues of mutual interest»

«Noting that China and the United States are respectively the biggest developing country and the biggest developed country, Xi pointed out that whether they can handle their relationship well bears on the future of the world»

«the basis of respecting each other’s core concerns and properly managing differences, the relevant departments of the two countries may continue their engagement and dialogue to advance coordination and cooperation»

«For his part, Biden said that the two countries have no interest in letting competition veer into conflict, and that the U.S. side has no intention to change the one-China policy»

«avoid miscommunication, miscalculation and unintended conflict, and get U.S.-China relations back on track»

                         Reuters.

«U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke for 90 minutes on Thursday, in their first talks in seven months, discussing the need to ensure that competition between the world’s two largest economies does not veer into conflict»

«The conversation focused on economic issues»

«Xi said that if “core concerns” on both sides were respected, diplomatic breakthroughs could still be made»

«The Biden administration, preoccupied by a chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, has signaled that ending America’s longest war will give U.S. political and military leaders the space to tackle more pressing threats from China’s rapid rise»

«→→ But Beijing has been quick to seize on the U.S. failure in Afghanistan to try to portray the United States as a fickle partner ←←»

«The senior U.S. administration official told reporters before the call that Washington had been disappointed that Chinese officials appeared only willing to read talking points during recent high-level talks»

«Even so, the official said Biden had not planned to raise the prospect of U.S. retaliatory action or “costs” if China refused to co-operate on a range of issues, including investigations into the origin of COVID-19»

«We also think that essentially Beijing’s actions are quieter than their words»

* * * * * * *

Tutti i colloqui di pace sono sempre auspicabili e benvenuti, ancorché ottengano solo piccoli risultati.

In fondo, la Cina richiede soltanto di essere trattata in via paritetica, nel pieno rispetto dell’altrui sovranità, senza indebite ingerenze nelle politiche interne.

Il resto viene di conserva.

*


Xi holds extensive strategic communication with Biden

Beijing, Sept. 10 (Xinhua) — Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday morning took a phone call from his U.S. counterpart, Joseph R. Biden, and the two leaders had candid, in-depth and extensive strategic communication and exchanges on China-U.S. relations and relevant issues of mutual interest.

Noting that China and the United States are respectively the biggest developing country and the biggest developed country, Xi pointed out that whether they can handle their relationship well bears on the future of the world, and it is a question of the century to which the two countries must provide a good answer.

With the international community facing many common challenges, China and the United States need to show broad vision and shoulder great responsibilities, he said, adding that the two countries should look ahead and press forward, demonstrate strategic courage and political resolve, and bring China-U.S. relations back to the right track of stable development as soon as possible for the good of the people in both countries and around the world.

On the basis of respecting each other’s core concerns and properly managing differences, the relevant departments of the two countries may continue their engagement and dialogue to advance coordination and cooperation on climate change, COVID-19 response and economic recovery as well as on major international and regional issues, Xi said.

In the meantime, the two sides may tap more potential of cooperation to inject more positive dynamics into the relationship, he added.

For his part, Biden said that the two countries have no interest in letting competition veer into conflict, and that the U.S. side has no intention to change the one-China policy.

The U.S. side, he added, is prepared to have more candid exchanges and constructive discussions with China to identify key and priority areas where cooperation is possible, avoid miscommunication, miscalculation and unintended conflict, and get U.S.-China relations back on track. Enditem

* * *


Facing stalemate in ties, Biden and China’s Xi discuss avoiding conflict in call

Washington/Beijing, Sept 9 (Reuters) – U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping spoke for 90 minutes on Thursday, in their first talks in seven months, discussing the need to ensure that competition between the world’s two largest economies does not veer into conflict.

The U.S. side said the “proof will be in the pudding” as to whether the stalemate can be broken with ties between the superpowers languishing at their lowest point in decades.

In a statement, the White House said Biden and Xi had “a broad, strategic discussion,” including areas where interests and values converge and diverge. The conversation focused on economic issues, climate change and COIVD-19, a senior U.S. official told reporters.

“President Biden underscored the United States’ enduring interest in peace, stability, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and the world and the two leaders discussed the responsibility of both nations to ensure competition does not veer into conflict,” the White House added.

Occasional high-level meetings since Xi and Biden’s first call in February have yielded scant progress on issues ranging from human rights to transparency over the origins of COVID-19.  

In the months since, the two sides have lashed out at each other almost constantly, often with vitriolic public attacks, sanctions on officials and criticism over not upholding international obligations.

Chinese state media said Xi had told Biden that U.S. policy on China imposed “serious difficulties” on relations, but added that both sides agreed to maintain frequent contact and ask working-level teams to step up communications.

“China and the United States should … show strategic courage and insight, and political boldness, and push Sino-U.S. relations back to the right track of stable development as soon as possible,” state media said, citing Xi.

Asian currencies and share markets strengthened, as investors speculated that the call could bring a thaw in ties between the two most important trading partners of regional economies.

Xi said that if “core concerns” on both sides were respected, diplomatic breakthroughs could still be made in the area of climate change, adding that the issue could add “positive factors” to the relationship.

During a visit to China by Biden’s top climate envoy John Kerry last week, senior diplomat Wang Yi said climate change was an “oasis” in China-U.S. relations but it could not be separated from broader disputes.  

‘PROOF WILL BE IN THE PUDDING’

The Biden administration, preoccupied by a chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, has signaled that ending America’s longest war will give U.S. political and military leaders the space to tackle more pressing threats from China’s rapid rise.  

But Beijing has been quick to seize on the U.S. failure in Afghanistan to try to portray the United States as a fickle partner.

Last month, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Washington should not expect China’s cooperation on that or other issues if it was also trying to “contain and suppress” China.  

The senior U.S. administration official told reporters before the call that Washington had been disappointed that Chinese officials appeared only willing to read talking points during recent high-level talks.

The official added that the U.S. side saw the leaders’ call as a test of whether direct engagement with Xi could end what had become a stalemate in ties.

“This is about seeing if there is an ability to engage more substantively than we’ve been able to … the proof will be in the pudding,” the official said after the call, describing the tone as candid, but respectful.

But the official also acknowledged that the United States’ ability to change China’s behavior may be limited, and that Washington must largely focus on shoring up competitiveness and rallying partners and allies.

Successive U.S. administrations have complained that Beijing has sought to use endless dialogue as a delaying tactic, frustration with which ultimately led Washington to end an annual U.S.-China dialogue mechanism.

Even so, the official said Biden had not planned to raise the prospect of U.S. retaliatory action or “costs” if China refused to co-operate on a range of issues, including investigations into the origin of COVID-19.

Beijing denies the U.S. accusation that it has not co-operated with the pandemic source investigation.

The U.S. official said it would require a “training period” for the Biden administration to convince Chinese leaders, who are preparing for an important Communist Party congress next year, that Beijing’s stance would not pay dividends.

“We also think that essentially Beijing’s actions are quieter than their words,” the official said. “Their responses to our actions have actually been largely symbolic and frankly their hard line rhetoric isn’t really working.”

Pubblicato in: Brasile, Cina, India, Russia

Brics. 13mo Summit, con novità. Vogliono un ruolo politico internazionale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-09.

BRICS 001

Il Club dei Brics è formato da Cina, Brasile, Russia, India e South Africa.

«Together, the five-nation group accounts for almost a quarter of the world’s total GDP and over 16% of world trade»

* * * * * * *

«Chinese President Xi Jinping will virtually meet his counterparts from Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa during the 13th BRICS Summit on Sept. 9»

«The leaders are expected to discuss issues such as counterterrorism, reforming multilateral organizations like the UN or the IMF, as well as the Covid-19 pandemic and regional developments»

«When the term was first coined, BRIC referred to the four prominent emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China. South Africa was added in 2010»

«Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will chair Thursday’s meeting, which will also be attended by Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa»

«India has outlined four priority areas for its chairship including reforms for multilateral organizations such as the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund, counterterrorism and using technology to achieve sustainable development goals, according to India’s Ministry of External Affairs»

«it is expected that Afghanistan could be on the agenda»

«The fate of BRICS has diverged since the first summit was held in Russia more than a decade ago. While China and India have grown exponentially, Russia, Brazil and South Africa have stumbled in exerting their influence on the global economy»

* * * * * * *

Cina. Un j’accuse ferocemente e brutalmente rude, e vero, contro gli Stati Uniti.

Cina. Si avvia alla maggioranza nelle Nazioni Unite.

Rappresentando il 25% circa del Pil mondiale ed il 16% dei commerci mondiali, i Brics si apprestano adesso a svolgere anche un ruolo politico globale. È questa una grande svolta.

La Cina da sola può contare su quasi la metà dei voti in aula alle Nazioni Unite, ed i Brics dovrebbero avere la maggioranza dei votanti.

L’operazione sul Fondo Monetario potrebbe essere più difficile, ma i Brics non dovrebbero poter essere ignorati più a lungo.

I tempi stanno mutando molto velocemente.

*


China’s Xi Jinping to attend virtual BRICS summit chaired by India

– Chinese President Xi Jinping will virtually meet his counterparts from Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa during the 13th BRICS Summit on Sept. 9.

– Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will chair Thursday’s meeting, which would also be attended by Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa.

– The leaders are expected to discuss issues such as counterterrorism, reforming multilateral organizations like the UN or the IMF, as well as the Covid-19 pandemic and regional developments.

*

Chinese President Xi Jinping will virtually meet his counterparts from Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa during the 13th BRICS Summit on Sept. 9, the country’s foreign ministry said Wednesday.

When the term was first coined, BRIC referred to the four prominent emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China. South Africa was added in 2010. Together, the five-nation group accounts for almost a quarter of the world’s total GDP and over 16% of world trade.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will chair Thursday’s meeting, which will also be attended by Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa. India currently holds the group’s rotating chairship.

India has outlined four priority areas for its chairship including reforms for multilateral organizations such as the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund, counterterrorism and using technology to achieve sustainable development goals, according to India’s Ministry of External Affairs.

“In addition to these areas, the leaders will also exchange views on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and other current global and regional issues,” the MEA said Monday.

While the Indian ministry did not specify which global or regional issues would be discussed, it is expected that Afghanistan could be on the agenda. Developments in Kabul are likely to directly impact China, India and Russia.

India’s national security advisor Ajit Doval will present at the summit.

Modi previously chaired the BRICS summit in 2016 in Goa. Last year, the meeting shifted to a virtual format due to the pandemic.

The fate of BRICS has diverged since the first summit was held in Russia more than a decade ago. While China and India have grown exponentially, Russia, Brazil and South Africa have stumbled in exerting their influence on the global economy.

Meanwhile, the relationship between China and India deteriorated last year following border clashes high in the Himalayas.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio

Cina. Luglio21. Import +28.1%, Export +19.3%, Saldo 56.588 miliardi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela

2021-08-08.

2021-08-09__ Cina Export 001

                         In sintesi.

«high-tech manufacturing went up by 22.6 percent year on year»

«In the first five months, the total profits made by industrial enterprises …. was 3,424.7 billion yuan, up by 83.4 percent year on year»

«In the first half year, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 18,065.1 billion yuan, an increase of 27.1 percent year on year»

«In the first half year, the exports of mechanical and electrical products accounted for 59.2 percent of the total value of exports»

«The imports and exports by private enterprises accounted for 47.8 percent of the total value of imports and exports»

«The total value of exports was 1,812.2 billion yuan, up by 20.2 percent year on year»

* * * * * *

Il National Bureau of Statistics of China ha rilasciato il Report

National Economy in the First Half Year Witnessed the Steady and Sound Growth Momentum Consolidated.

In the first half year, faced with complicated and changing environment both at home and abroad, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core, all regions and departments strictly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, continued to consolidate and expand the achievements made in the epidemic prevention and control and the economic and social development, and implemented accurate macro policies. China’s economy sustained a steady recovery with the production and demand picking up, employment and prices remaining stable, new driving forces thriving fast, quality and efficiency enhancing, market expectations improving and major macro indicators staying within reasonable range. The national economy witnessed the steady and sound growth momentum consolidated.

According to the preliminary estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China in the first half year was 53,216.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7 percent at comparable prices, 5.6 percentage points lower than that of the first quarter; and the average two-year growth was 5.3 percent, 0.3 percentage points faster than that of the first quarter. By quarter, the year-on-year GDP growth for the first quarter was 18.3 percent, with an average two-year growth of 5.0 percent; for the second quarter 7.9 percent, with an average two-year growth of 5.5 percent. By industry, in the first half year, the value added of the primary industry was 2,840.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.8 percent, with an average two-year growth of 4.3 percent; the secondary industry 20,715.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 14.8 percent, with an average two-year growth of 6.1 percent; and the tertiary industry  29,661.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 11.8 percent, with an average two-year growth of 4.9 percent. The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of the second quarter was 1.3 percent.

….

                         Industrial Production Grew Steadily and High-tech Manufacturing Grew Fast.

In the first half year, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 15.9 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 7.0 percent, 0.2 percentage points faster than that of the first quarter; specifically, that of the second quarter went up by 8.9 percent year on year. In June, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 8.3 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 6.5 percent; and the month-on-month growth was 0.56 percent. In terms of sectors, in the first half year, the value added of the mining went up by 6.2 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 2.5 percent; that of the manufacturing up by 17.1 percent, with an average two-year growth of 7.5 percent; and that of the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water up by 13.4 percent, with an average two-year growth of 6.0 percent. The value added of high-tech manufacturing went up by 22.6 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 13.2 percent. In terms of products, the production of new-energy automobiles, industrial robots and integrated circuits increased by 205.0 percent, 69.8 percent, and 48.1 percent year on year respectively, with the average two-year growths all exceeding 30 percent. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added of the state holding enterprises went up by 11.9 percent year on year; that of share-holding enterprises up by 15.8 percent year on year; that of enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan up by 17.0 percent year on year; and that of private enterprises up by 18.3 percent year on year. In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index of China was 50.9 percent, staying above the threshold for sixteen months in a row. The Production and Operation Expectation Index was 57.9 percent.

In the first five months, the total profits made by industrial enterprises above the designated size was 3,424.7 billion yuan, up by 83.4 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 21.7 percent. The profit rate of the business revenue of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 7.11 percent, 2.05 percentage points higher than that of the first five months in 2020.

….

                         Imports and Exports of Goods Grew Fast and Trade Structure Continued to Improve.

In the first half year, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 18,065.1 billion yuan, an increase of 27.1 percent year on year. The total value of exports was 9,849.3 billion yuan, up by 28.1 percent year on year. The total value of imports was 8,215.7 billion yuan, up by 25.9 percent year on year. The trade balance was 1,633.6 billion yuan in surplus. The trade structure continued to improve. In the first half year, the exports of mechanical and electrical products accounted for 59.2 percent of the total value of exports, up by 0.6 percentage points over the same period last year. The imports and exports of general trade accounted for 61.9 percent of the total value of imports and exports, up by 1.7 percentage points over the same period last year. The imports and exports by private enterprises accounted for 47.8 percent of the total value of imports and exports, up by 2.8 percentage points over the same period last year. In June, the total value of imports and exports was 3,291.6 billion yuan, an increase of 22.0 percent year on year. The total value of exports was 1,812.2 billion yuan, up by 20.2 percent year on year. The total value of imports was 1,479.4 billion yuan, up by 24.2 percent year on year.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Cina. 2021Q2. Pil +7.9% anno su anno, +12.7% negli ultimi 12 mesi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-18.

2021-07-16__ Cina Pil 001

Attenzione!

Mentre i pil dei paesi occidentali conteggiano le sovvenzioni statali, regionali e comunali come se fossero state proventi da lavoro, gonfiando così i valori dei prodotti interni lordi, il pil cinese considera solo quanto prodotto realmente con il lavoro diretto.

* * * * * * *

In sintesi.

– The country’s gross domestic product increased 7.9% in the second quarter from a year ago

– Retail sales rose 12.1% in June from a year ago

– Industrial production grew by 8.3%

* * * * * * *


National Bureau of Statistics of China. National Economy in the First Half Year Witnessed the Steady and Sound Growth Momentum Consolidated.

«In the first half year, faced with complicated and changing environment both at home and abroad, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core, all regions and departments strictly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, continued to consolidate and expand the achievements made in the epidemic prevention and control and the economic and social development, and implemented accurate macro policies. China’s economy sustained a steady recovery with the production and demand picking up, employment and prices remaining stable, new driving forces thriving fast, quality and efficiency enhancing, market expectations improving and major macro indicators staying within reasonable range. The national economy witnessed the steady and sound growth momentum consolidated.

According to the preliminary estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China in the first half year was 53,216.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7 percent at comparable prices, 5.6 percentage points lower than that of the first quarter; and the average two-year growth was 5.3 percent, 0.3 percentage points faster than that of the first quarter. By quarter, the year-on-year GDP growth for the first quarter was 18.3 percent, with an average two-year growth of 5.0 percent; for the second quarter 7.9 percent, with an average two-year growth of 5.5 percent. By industry, in the first half year, the value added of the primary industry was 2,840.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.8 percent, with an average two-year growth of 4.3 percent; the secondary industry 20,715.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 14.8 percent, with an average two-year growth of 6.1 percent; and the tertiary industry  29,661.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 11.8 percent, with an average two-year growth of 4.9 percent. The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of the second quarter was 1.3 percent.»

* * * * * * *


China’s GDP grew 7.9% in the second quarter; retail sales beat expectations

– The country’s gross domestic product increased 7.9% in the second quarter from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday. That fell short of Reuters’ estimate of 8.1% growth.

– Retail sales rose 12.1% in June from a year ago, more than the expected 11% level forecast by Reuters.

– Industrial production grew by 8.3%, greater than the 7.8% Reuters estimate.

*

China reported second-quarter GDP growth that came in slightly below expectations, while retail sales and industrial production grew faster than forecast in June.

The country’s gross domestic product increased 7.9% in the second quarter from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday. That fell short of Reuters’ estimate of 8.1% growth for the April to June period.

“Overall, China’s economy looks to be on track for recovery, with the 6% annual growth goal in reach,” Chaoping Zhu, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said in a note.

“However, downside and structural risks in domestic demand are concerning,” he said, pointing to weak growth in long-term credit and uncertainty over market regulation.

Second-quarter GDP rose 1.3% from the first quarter, faster than the 0.6% pace between the first quarter of this year and fourth quarter of 2020. However, the latest quarterly increase was still slower than the 2.6% pace of the fourth quarter.

“China’s economy sustained a steady recovery,” the statistics bureau said in a release. But the bureau added there were still concerns about the global spread of the pandemic and “unbalanced” recovery domestically.

Retail sales rose 12.1% in June from a year ago, more than the expected 11% level forecast by Reuters. The fastest-growing category was beverages, up 29.1% year-on-year.

Retail sales growth has lagged that of the overall economy, and missed analysts’ expectations for the first two months of the second quarter.

Consumption declined year-on-year in May for four provincial capitals — Wuhan, Guiyang, Shijiazhuang and Yinchuan — according to analysis of public data by Pinpoint Asset Management.

Industrial production grew by 8.3%, greater than the 7.8% Reuters estimate.

In the last three months, Chinese authorities have also announced support for companies affected by the surge in commodity prices.

The urban survey unemployment rate held steady at 5% in June, while unemployment for the younger 16 to 24 age category climbed to 15.4% — the same as June 2020.

On Thursday, a cut to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), or the amount of funds banks must hold in reserve, was set to take effect. Authorities’ initial hint of such a cut surprised investors last week, and signaled concerns of slower growth.

The cut is expected to release about 1 trillion yuan (or $154 billion) into the economy.

Meanwhile, China’s customs agency said earlier this week that exports rose a more-than-expected 32.2% in June.

Exports growth will likely slow in the second half of the year, said Bruce Pang, head of macro and strategy research at China Renaissance. He cited factors such as a high level of growth in the second half of last year and weaker growth in commodity prices.

China’s slower pace of economic recovery “is still clouded with uncertainties and unbalanced growth, as employment, household income, consumption, manufacturing investment, the service sector and private companies have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels,” Pang said.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo

Germania. Annalena Baerbock vuole essere ben più dura con Pechino.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-19.

2021-05-18__ Germania Sondaggi 001

La Germania è nel chaos politico.

Secondo l’ultimo sondaggio disponibile, i Grüne avrebbero il 25% delle propensioni al voto, sorpassando la Union (Cdu/Csu) ferma al 24%, crollata dal pregresso 40%.

Se questo sondaggio restasse valido fino al momento delle votazioni politiche, la cancelleria spetterebbe ai Grüne: una svolta storica per la Germania e per l’Unione Europea.

Ma purtroppo il problema è molto più complesso.

Sia che la Union ottenga il cancellierato, sia che lo ottengano i Grüne, la frammentazione dei partiti imporrebbe per forza di cose la formazione di coalizioni di almeno tre partiti, costringendo alla convivenza politica formazioni storicamente politicamente molto differenti tra di loro, per non dire contrastanti. Tutti i partiti politici dovrebbero quindi dimostrare una inedita reciproca tolleranza e diplomazia politica.

Linke ed AfD sembrerebbero, almeno al momento, non candidabili all’ingresso al governo, per cui saranno determinanti la Sdp ed Fdp. Ambedue codesti partiti hanno severe conflittualità interne, elemento che complica ulteriormente le possibilità di dialogo.

* * *

Per quanto riguarda i Grüne, il loro programma politico è del tutto simile a quello dei liberal democratici di sinistra.

In modo particolare, questa somiglianza sarebbe evidente sul piano della politica estera.

«La Cina rimpiangerà Angela Merkel …. una volta che l’ex ‘ragazza dell’Est’ si sarà ritirata a vita privata, dopo le elezioni federali del 26 settembre»

«Finora la cancelliera si è sempre impegnata a smussare le acque. Dopo la sua era, il tono sarà più ruvido»

«L’ultimo episodio che ci parla dei mutamenti in corso (e delle crescenti difficoltà di Frau Merkel sul fronte cinese) è lo stop alla ratificazione a parte della Commissione Ue e dell’Europarlamento all’accordo per gli investimenti che la cancelliera e il presidente Xi Jinping avevano sostenuto con notevole vigore»

«non possiamo più ignorare il contesto più ampio delle relazioni con la Cina»

«La ragione sta nella nuda verità dei numeri: nel 2019 la Cina è stata per la quarta volta il maggiore partner commerciale della Germania, ed è un fatto che l’industria automobilistica tedesca venda più veicoli nella Repubblica popolare che in patria»

«La Cina ha legato le proprie leve economiche ad una molteplicità di iniziative dalle quali, sommate tutte insieme, emerge nientemeno che un modello di ordine mondiale in stile cinese»

«La Germania deve correggere il suo corso: basta con la priorità degli interessi economici a spesa di libertà e multilateralismo. Inoltre è necessario affrontare con più forza i temi dei diritti umani, valutare il ruolo di Huawei nel 5G, chiedere maggiore aiuto da parte della Cina nella difesa del clima globale e pretendere accesso libero al suo mercato»

* * * * * * *

Da ultimo, ma non certo per ultimo, tutti questi ragionamenti dovrebbero tener conto anche del convitato di pietra: la Cina.

Se le Germania e la Unione Europea tirassero troppo la corda, la Cina potrebbe rispondere così come ha fatto con l’Australia.

Australia. La Cina sospende sine die il dialogo economico.

* * * * * * *


La Cina rimpiangerà Angela Merkel.

La verde Annalena Baerbock lanciata verso la Cancelleria: “Con Pechino non dobbiamo essere ingenui”.

*

“La Cina rimpiangerà Angela Merkel”. Il commento della Zeit la dice lunga su quali siano le aspettative sui rapporti tra Berlino e Pechino una volta che l’ex ‘ragazza dell’Est’ si sarà ritirata a vita privata, dopo le elezioni federali del 26 settembre.

“Finora la cancelliera si è sempre impegnata a smussare le acque. Dopo la sua era, il tono sarà più ruvido”, insiste il giornale. I primi segnali stanno già arrivando: Annalena Baerbock, lanciata dai Verdi nella corsa alla cancelleria ed in questo momento l’assoluta beniamina dei sondaggi, ha già fatto sapere che se venisse eletta spingerà con forza per un posizionamento ben più netto dell’Unione europea nei confronti di Pechino: “Non dobbiamo essere ingenui”.  

L’ultimo episodio che ci parla dei mutamenti in corso (e delle crescenti difficoltà di Frau Merkel sul fronte cinese) è lo stop alla ratificazione a parte della Commissione Ue e dell’Europarlamento all’accordo per gli investimenti che la cancelliera e il presidente Xi Jinping avevano sostenuto con notevole vigore: come ha detto il commissario europeo per il commercio Valdis Dombrovkis, “non possiamo più ignorare il contesto più ampio delle relazioni” con la Cina. “Tutto questo certo non è sorprendente”, incalza ancora la Zeit, che si chiede “come il Parlamento avrebbe potuto ratificare il trattato dopo che Pechino ha emesso sanzioni nei confronti degli eurodeputati dei maggiori gruppi parlamentari?”.

                         L’ira per le sanzioni

Una reazione, quella cinese, dettata dall’ira per le sanzioni decise dall’Ue a causa della persecuzione degli uiguri nello Xinjiang. “I deputati sanzionati sono i nostri eroi”, è corso a dichiarare il capogruppo del Ppe, Manfred Weber.  

E’ pur vero che anche la cancelliera – appena due settimane fa, alle abituali consultazioni sino-tedesche – in videocollegamento con il premier cinese Li Keqiang aveva rivolto un appello alla Cina di riprendere “al più presto” il dialogo su diritti umani, insistendo che “vi sono anche differenze di opinione” (vedi alla voce Hong Kong), ma aveva anche ribadito con forza che Berlino e Pechino intendono estendere la collaborazione su molti dossier, “nonostante le molte differenze politiche”, per esempio nei campi dell’ambiente, dello sviluppo e anche dei vaccini anti-Covid.
Tutto questo accadeva proprio mentre al Parlamento europeo si dibatteva sulle sanzioni cinesi: “I ministri tedeschi e cinesi – specifica la Zeit – erano collegati in videoconferenza a consultazioni di governo, come ve ne sono altre con i partner più stretti, per esempio la Francia e Israele”. 

                         Merkel, 12 volte in Cina in 16 anni

La posizione di Merkel, che ripete ancora una volta come l’intesa sugli investimenti con Pechino rappresenti “un’impresa molto importante”, non sorprende: nei suoi ben sedici anni da cancelliera ha compiuto ben dodici missioni in Cina. “Non ha mai mancato mai di sostenere le vittime di violazioni dei diritti, ma non rischierebbe di mettere a rischio le relazioni economiche con Pechino in nome di un gesto politico”, chiosa il settimanale amburghese. La ragione sta nella nuda verità dei numeri: nel 2019 la Cina è stata per la quarta volta il maggiore partner commerciale della Germania, ed è un fatto che l’industria automobilistica tedesca venda più veicoli nella Repubblica popolare che in patria. 
L’intreccio è, insomma, difficilissimo. Molti a Berlino ricordano in queste ore l’altro precedente, quello intorno al coinvolgimento del colosso Huawei nella costruzione della rete 5G in Germania. Quando l’anno scorso nel suo discorso al Bundestag Merkel aveva definito la Cina un “partner strategico” in molti avevano preso nota: a Pechino, a Bruxelles, a Berlino e a Washington.

                         Il 5g

Il retroscena non era solo geopolitico in senso largo: la cancelliera, infatti, non ha mai voluto escludere il colosso cinese dalla realizzazione dell’infrastruttura della telecomunicazione e del digitale di “quinta generazione”, e questo nonostante l’allarme ripetutamente lanciato dall’intelligence di vari Paesi – servizi segreti tedeschi compresi – circa la possibilità che le autorità cinesi esercitino un effettivo controllo su Huawei, che in pratica sarebbe in grado di svolgere attività di spionaggio per conto di Pechino grazie alla propria tecnologia.

La preoccupazione della cancelliera era quella che se Berlino bloccasse le porte a Huwaei il rischio sarebbe quello di ripercussioni negative sulle imprese tedesche dipendenti dal mercato cinese. Una posizione non facile la sua, dato che non solo gli alleati dell’Spd, ma anche diversi ambienti interni alla Cdu si sono detti contrari a proseguire la politica delle “porte aperte” nei confronti del colosso cinese, continuando a chiedere specifiche restrizioni e chiari paletti, soprattutto in tema sicurezza.   

                         Usa in contrapposizione

Non finisce qui: c’è anche la Casa Bianca a soffiare sul collo. Com’è noto, l’amministrazione di Joe Biden verso Pechino ha mantenuto la linea di una contrapposizione netta del predecessore, ma è altrettanto noto che la Germania sia più sensibile ai richiami di Washington adesso che non ai tempi della presidenza Trump. A maggior ragione considerando il fatto che in Germania il clima verso la Cina sembra essere mutato individuando il grande dragone come un “rivale sistemico” – così è stato definito dall’Associazione degli industriali tedeschi – che con i suoi investimenti globali crea un sistema di dipendenze da cui risulta sempre più difficile districarsi.

    Ecco che si moltiplicano gli appelli: “La Cina ha legato le proprie leve economiche ad una molteplicità di iniziative dalle quali, sommate tutte insieme, emerge nientemeno che un modello di ordine mondiale in stile cinese”, attacca per esempio la Sueddeutsche Zeitung.

                         I diritti umani

Picchiava duro, tempo fa, anche il Tagesspiegel: “La Germania deve correggere il suo corso: basta con la priorità degli interessi economici a spesa di libertà e multilateralismo. Inoltre è necessario affrontare con più forza i temi dei diritti umani, valutare il ruolo di Huawei nel 5G, chiedere maggiore aiuto da parte della Cina nella difesa del clima globale e pretendere accesso libero al suo mercato”.    

E allora si guarda a quello che sarà il futuro esecutivo tedesco: il pensiero non può non correre ai Verdi, senza i quali – stando ai sondaggi oramai stabili da settimane, per non dire mesi – non sembra possibile maggioranza di governo. “Ed è probabile che lo scontro sarà portato anche sulla scena aperta”, aggiunge di nuovo la Zeit, “che si tratti della repressione degli uiguri e del movimento democratico di Hong Kong o delle minacce nei confronti di Taiwan”.

Le parole di Baerbock, la candidata del partito ambientalista, vanno esattamente in questa direzione: “Le democrazie liberali devono tenere alti i propri valori”. La giovane leader – a cui vengono accreditate non poche chance di prendere il posto di Merkel dopo le elezioni di settembre – ritiene che Pechino rappresenti “un pericolo”, a causa della politica economica volta a creare dipendenze attraverso gli investimenti nelle infrastrutture: “Questo è il punto decisivo sul quale noi europei dobbiamo essere estremamente vigili”.

                         Uno scudo per l’Europa

 Tra le contromosse ipotizzata dalla numero uno dei Verdi vi è anche la creazione di una sorta di scudo di protezione per l’Europa con investimenti diretti e mettendo in piedi trattati commerciali “equi” che preservino altri Paesi dal rendersi legati mani e piedi da Pechino. Certo, ha aggiunto, anche se la Cina “è un mercato troppo grande perché l’Ue possa chiudersi a esso”, una politica che seguisse solo la via degli interessi “lasciando per strada i valori” finirebbe per ritorcersi contro l’Europa.     

E’ anche una questione di equilibri globali. In pratica, la domanda che ci si ripete a Berlino è la stessa che pochi giorni fa si è posto Thomas Friedman sulle colonne del New York Times: “Proprio quando la Cina, la Russia e l’Iran stanno sfidando l’ordine globale più aggressivamente che mai, molti si chiedono se gli Stati Uniti abbiano ancora l’energia, gli alleati e le risorse per una nuova rissa geopolitica”. Messaggio che trova interlocutori sempre più sensibili anche all’ombra della Porta di Brandeburgo.