Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Unione Europea, Commissione uscente e Visegrad.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-07-19.

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La maggioranza europarlamentare tra Ppe ed S&D è crollata sotto il peso delle sue contraddizioni.

Contravvenendo alle più elementari regole di buon vivere politico, la Commissione Europea uscente tenta ora il colpo grosso nei confronti dei paesi del Visegrad, rei di aver destabilizzato il vecchio status quo europeo.

La Commissione di Mr Juncker vorrebbe poter arrivare ad escludere Polonia ed Ungheria dal Consiglio Europeo, così da suggellare con questo atto la propria fuoriuscita dalla scena politica.

Oggetto del contendere è il rule of law, termine con il quale i liberal socialisti intendono l’asservimento ideologico dei giudici alla loro ideologia, mezzo oltremodo potente per poter dominare situazioni nelle quali non siano riusciti a conquistarsi una supremazia elettorale.

Questo problema è sentito in molti paesi europei, ma specialmente in Polonia ed in Ungheria.

I loro tribunali, ivi comprese le relative corti costituzionali, sono occupate in gran parte da giudici ideologicamente schierati, che si ingegnano a fare tutto il loro possibile per ostacolare i legittimi governi in carica, legittimamente eletti.

«The European Commission is to propose annual rule-of-law checks on all EU states amid tensions with Hungary, Poland, and Romania»

«Its proposal, to be unveiled in Brussels on Wednesday (17 July), is to model the legal screening on the annual fiscal reviews carried out by EU officials on national debt and deficits»

«It would also include a yearly high-level EU conference on rule of law with NGOs and academics to highlight abuse»

«The proposal comes after EU institutions triggered sanctions procedures against Hungary and Poland for meddling with their courts and other abuses of EU democratic norms»

«The sanctions could, in theory, see Hungary and Poland’s votes suspended in the EU Council»

«But such a move would require unanimity, with Budapest and Warsaw pledging to veto each other’s punishments, and with Lithuania’s new president Gitanas Nauseda, also promising to shield Poland»

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Staremo a vedere come si articoleranno gli eventi.

Una cosa sembrerebbe però emergere chiaramente: ben difficilmente il Consiglio Europeo voterebbe a maggioranza assoluta la sospensione di paesi quali la Polonia e la Ungheria.


EU Observer. 2019-07-17. Poland ‘optimistic’ despite new EU law checks

The European Commission is to propose annual rule-of-law checks on all EU states amid tensions with Hungary, Poland, and Romania.

Its proposal, to be unveiled in Brussels on Wednesday (17 July), is to model the legal screening on the annual fiscal reviews carried out by EU officials on national debt and deficits, according to the Reuters news agency.

It would also include a yearly high-level EU conference on rule of law with NGOs and academics to highlight abuse, Reuters added.

EU interior ministers are likely to discuss the idea when they meet in Brussels on Thursday.

The proposal comes after EU institutions triggered sanctions procedures against Hungary and Poland for meddling with their courts and other abuses of EU democratic norms.

The European Commission also warned Romania on sanctions and won a court injunction to stop Poland firing its Supreme Court judges.

The sanctions could, in theory, see Hungary and Poland’s votes suspended in the EU Council.

But such a move would require unanimity, with Budapest and Warsaw pledging to veto each other’s punishments, and with Lithuania’s new president Gitanas Nauseda, also promising to shield Poland.

“We should not be pursuing the path of sanctions, but the path of a better mutual understanding,” Nauseda said in Warsaw on Tuesday.

The sanctions threats were a “form of oppression”, Polish president Andrzej Duda added.

Hungary and Poland had previously complained they were being singled out unfairly and the proposed annual reviews of all 28 EU countries could help to take the heat off their administrations.

Acting as a bloc with the Czech Republic and Slovakia, they lobbied against the nomination of Dutch commissioner Frans Timmermans – who oversaw the EU sanctions process – to be the next commission chief.

The German minister who got the post on Tuesday, Ursula von der Leyen, has also said she would take a hard line, including EU budget cuts for unruly capitals.

Timmermans’ future role in her commission remains uncertain, however.

She also had to rely on the votes of MEPs from Poland’s ruling party, Law and Justice (PiS), in order to secure her nomination in a European Parliament vote.

And for his part, the Polish prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, hinted in Berlin on Tuesday that there was a quid pro quo.

He said Poland had wanted a commission chief who “built bridges” instead of one [Timmermans] who “lectures, scolds, divides, and creates conflicts in Europe”.

German chancellor Angela Merkel had earlier phoned him to solicit PiS’ support for von der Leyen, Morawiecki told press alongside Merkel in the German capital.

“I am a cautious optimist. I believe we will have a partner on the other side completely different from the one [Timmermans] who posed a threat to central Europe by his lack of understanding and unfair treatment of Poland,” Morawiecki added.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Senza categoria, Unione Europea

Visegrad. Gli identitari sovranisti sono i kingmakers europei.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-07-08.

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Le recenti riunioni del Consiglio Europeo hanno messo in evidenza come i paesi del Visegrad siano stati in grado di organizzare, con il sostanziale appoggio dell’Italia, un gruppo coeso e compatto di undici nazioni in grado di assurgere al ruolo di kingmakers nell’Unione.

Hanno affossato la candidatura di Herr Weber sostenuta dai popolari europei e da Frau Merkel, poi hanno distrutto quella di Herr Timmermans, sostenuta dai socialisti europei e da Mr Macron, quindi hanno mandato a monte la ultima proposta di Frau Merkel, di imbastire una staffetta tra questi due candidati. Infine hanno fatto passare la candidatura di Ursula von der Leyen e della Lagarde.

Non solo l’asse frangermanico ne è uscito con le ossa rotte. Di ben maggiore portata è stata la riaffermazione del potere del Consiglio Europeo rispetto a quello dell’europarlamento, ossia, del potere degli stati sui parlamentari.

È il trionfo de facto della visione di un’Europa Unita intesa come confederazione economica di stati indipendenti e sovrani rispetto al concetto finora perseguito di arrivare ad un stato europeo. I veri sconfitti sono Juncker, Tusk, Merkel e Macron.

Un solo dato dovrebbe essere sufficiente per descrivere il loro insuccesso. Nel 2014 il pil dell’Eurozona era13,488 miliardi Usd, mentre a fine 2018 ammontava a 13,669 miliardi Usd.

Quando costoro sbandierano ai quattro venti che avrebbero vinto, assomigliano ai tedeschi che nel 1943 proclamavano la grande vittoria di essersi ritirati dal Volga al Dnepr ossia di oltre ottocento kilometri. Contenti loro. Ancor più contenti i russi.

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Uno degli errori fatali dell’ideologia liberal socialista è quello di ritenere che l’essere umano si estingua nel mero soddisfacimento economico. Da questo punto di vista il dato sul pil è ben segno del loro fallimento.

Al contrario dei paesi liberal socialisti europei, quelli del Visegrad, ed anche dell’Italia, hanno solidi governi retti da ampie maggioranze, che hanno coagulato la popolazione attorno ai valori del retaggio religioso, storico, culturale ed artistico tipico di ogni stato. Mr Macron ha definito ‘lebbrosi’ gli identitari sovranisti, proclamandosi loro nemico mortale, e ne uscito con le ossa rotte. Se è vero che Mrs Lagarde è nata in suolo francese, essa è una fedelissima di Mr Sarkozy, ed il presidente francese aveva caldeggiato per la Ecb l’attuale governatore della Banca di Francia, non certo la Lagarde.

L’analisi condotta dai liberal socialisti è monca dell’aspetto principale: quello umano. Non lamentiamocene, però.

Un’analisi scorretta è prolegomeno di ulteriori errori: lasciamo quindi che i liberal socialisti si suicidino pure con le loro mani, anzi, diamo loro una mano.

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«Slovakia and the Czech Republic are relatively EU-friendly, while Hungary and Poland are much more euroskeptic. Slovakia is the only country to belong to the eurozone»

«If counted as a single nation state, the V4 would be the fifth largest-economy in Europe and 12th globally. Its population of 64 million would rank it 22nd-largest in the world and 4th in Europe. Most live in Poland (38 million), followed by the Czech Republic (nearly 11 million), Hungary (nearly 10 million) and Slovakia (5.5 million)»

«Central European economies, meanwhile, rank among the fastest-growing in the bloc»

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EU climate goals ditched as Warsaw and Budapest dig in

«Poland and Hungary said they will put their own economies first after rejecting an EU bid for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. All very well, but the latest episode in their battle with Brussels will affect us all.

EU leaders failed last week to set a target for carbon neutrality by 2050, the European Commission’s proposal backed by 24 of the EU’s member states, but vetoed by Poland, Hungary, Estonia and the Czech Republic.»

Ci si pensi bene.

L’Unione Europea come Unione di stati identitari e sovrani è già in atto. Ciò che conta sono i risultati.


Deutsche Welle. 2019-07-06. Visegrad Group: A new economic heart of Europe?

After German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s recent meeting with the heads of government of the Visegrad Group, DW asks if Central Europe has the economic clout to push its own agenda in a changing Europe.

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Asked if she thought the Central European quartet that makes up the Visegrad Group (V4) could soon rival other EU regional blocs for supremacy within the corridors of Brussels, one EU diplomat offered a curt reply: “No,” she said, smiled and departed. 

The V4 (Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary) wants to change that.

Only recently, three of the V4 demanded compensation for making green changes to their economies in the EU’s next seven-year budget, known as the multiannual financial framework (MFF).

Observers often refer to the V4 as “two plus two” because of their different attitudes toward European integration. Slovakia and the Czech Republic are relatively EU-friendly, while Hungary and Poland are much more euroskeptic. Slovakia is the only country to belong to the eurozone.

How economically powerful is the V4?

If counted as a single nation state, the V4 would be the fifth largest-economy in Europe and 12th globally. Its population of 64 million would rank it 22nd-largest in the world and 4th in Europe. Most live in Poland (38 million), followed by the Czech Republic (nearly 11 million), Hungary (nearly 10 million) and Slovakia (5.5 million).

The EU 27’s economy is expected to grow by a lackluster 1.4% in 2019 and 1.2% in the 19-member eurozone. While Germany’s slowdown remains the main cause for concern, only up 0.5% this year, other European economies are also lowering prospects.

Central European economies, meanwhile, rank among the fastest-growing in the bloc.

Poland

A $525 (€475)-billion economy with uninterrupted high growth averaging 4.2% per year between 1992-2019, Poland is catching up with Western Europe. It is already the seventh-largest economy in the EU. With a population of 38 million, the country ceased to be designated as an emerging market for stock investors in 2018.

One of the most important features of the Polish economy is its large domestic consumer market, making up 61% of GDP, exceeding the EU average. That means less dependence on the German economy, although its larger western neighbor is still Poland’s largest trading partner.

In terms of infrastructure investments, Poland has been the biggest beneficiary of EU funds from 2007 to 2013 and 2014 to 2020, with €102 billion and €106 billion of funds received, respectively.

Risks

Ratings agency Moody’s recently noted that despite the boom, Poland is running one of Eastern Europe’s biggest underlying fiscal deficits, which strips out the effects of economic cycles, at 2% of GDP.

There’s also the potential for lower inflows from the EU budget, which may be reduced further in the post-2020 fiscal plan, if the bloc decides to make some funds conditional on respect for democratic values.

Moody’s said it expects a shortage of workers already felt by more than half of Polish companies. There are also demographic trends, including an exodus of workers to richer EU nations and one of the lowest birth rates in Europe.

Czech Republic

The country of 10.6 million people’s results are the most disappointing among the Visegrad economies, with 2.6% growth in 2019 and 2.4% in 2020.

The Czech Republic has been an EU member since May 1, 2004, is a part of the Schengen free travel area, but has resisted adopting the euro, favoring its own koruna. 

Heavily dependent on car production and exports to the eurozone, the Czech economy recovered from a long crisis in 2013 and now boasts the lowest unemployment rate in the EU, at 2.2%.

Risks

Outgoing IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde cited the Czech Republic as an example when warning against the dangers of US tariffs on European products.

She said that while the direct export of car components from the Czech Republic to the US is very low, this does not mean the Czech Republic will be immune to the effects of such an event.

Slovakia

Although ranked as the fastest-growing developed economy in the world by the OECD, Slovakia comes right after its Polish neighbor, with a GDP growth forecast of 3.8% in 2019 and 3.4% next year, compared to a 4.1% growth in 2018. 

Unemployment is also expected to drop to 5.9% in 2019 compared to 6.5% last year.

Competition from lower-cost southeastern European markets, a shift to electric vehicles and global trade tensions are among the headwinds hitting Slovakia.

The auto industry accounts for 44% of industrial output and 40% of exports. At the end of 2017, VW Slovakia employed 13,700 people making Touareg SUVs, Audi Q7s and Porsche Cayennes for the US market. 

So far this year, Volkswagen has scaled back production in Bratislava and returned workers borrowed from Hungary’s Audi plant in 2016.

Volkswagen is looking at building a new plant in eastern Europe, with trade publications citing Bulgaria, Serbia and Turkey as the most likely locations.

Hungary

With 3.7% growth in 2019, Hungary ranks as the fifth-fastest-growing economy in the EU, according to the European Commission forecasts.

With a 3.2% inflation rate, Hungary records the second-fastest-galloping prices after Romania (3.6%) and more than twice as much as the EU average. Unemployment is expected to stabilize at around 3.5%.

A brewing global trade war is a particular concern for Hungary, given its reliance on foreign trade.

Despite the problems at hand, the Visegrad nations keep playing a pivotal role at least for German exporters. According to the Centre for European Reform, the V4 collectively managed to become Germany’s most important trade partner in 2017, ahead of China and the United States, due to their integration in EU-wide supply chains.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Ideologia liberal, Unione Europea

Visegrad, V4, Unione Europea e questa attuale eurodirigenza.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-02-08.

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Germany’s Merkel To Meet Visegrad Four Leaders In Slovakia

«German Chancellor Angela Merkel will hold talks in Bratislava with the prime ministers of host Slovakia, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary to mark 30 years since the fall of the Iron Curtain.

The German government said on February 6 ahead of the meeting that the political shift in the countries of the so-called Visegrad Four group “made a considerable contribution to the fact that German reunification could proceed in peace.”

Merkel is scheduled to meet first with Slovak Prime Minister Peter Pellegrini, then the two will join the others for lunch to discuss economic matters, foreign policy, and European issues. ….

Poland, the United States, the Baltic states, and several other EU countries have also expressed concern about the Nord Stream 2 project, the second gas pipeline linking Russia directly with Germany under the Baltic Sea.

It would avoid existing gas pipelines through Ukraine and critics say would increase Europe’s energy dependence on Russia.»

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Cosying up in Bratislava

«In their ongoing quest to shape majorities on EU policies, Germany and France both have an interest in anchoring the Czech and Slovak governments in their respective camps.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel travels to Bratislava this week to meet with the Visegrad Group. This is the first high-level meeting between Merkel and her V4 counterparts since 2016.

It happens against the backdrop of widening gaps on the overall direction of the European Union, on the development of democracy and the rule of law in Hungary and Poland, and the controversy between Berlin and Central and Eastern European capitals over the EU’s migration and asylum policies.

No doubt, the exchange between Chancellor Merkel and the V4 in Bratislava – Slovakia holds the Presidency of the V4 in 2018/2019 – is highly important. From a Berlin perspective, despite manifest differences on EU policy, there is a strong interest in keeping the V4 countries engaged.»

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Negli ultimi decenni la mancata definizione dei termini usati ha causato una grande quantità di fraintendimenti, alcuni voluti altri indesiderati.

In altre parole: quasi sempre gli interlocutori concettualizzano in modo differente i vari vocaboli.

In una simile situazione, la chiarezza espressiva va immediatamente a pesare sulla complessità del discorso, che ne risulta essere allungato da tutti i chiarimenti lessicologici allegati. Si corre il rischio di essere illeggibili.

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Per quanto possa sembrare cosa strana, nessuno dei trattati costitutivi ha mai detto cosa debba intendersi per Unione Europea. Era e resta un termine la cui comprensione è affidata all’acume dell’interlocutore. Due tentativi di darsi un costituzione sono stati bocciati in referendum dal popolo sovrano.

L’attuale eurodirigenza oramai vicina ai termini di scadenza ha sempre dato per scontato che l’Unione Europea fosse esattamente ciò che essa avrebbe voluto che fosse, ossia uno stato sovrano a capo del quale sarebbe seduta lei stessa.

Una Unione Europea liberal, fortemente statalista, altamente centralizzata, con un suo sistema giudiziario che applicava l’ideologia liberal nelle aule dei tribunali europei.

Questo processo è andato avanti fino al punto che l’eurodirigenza ha ritenuto di essere lei stessa l’Unione Europea.

Così sono nate delle frasi logicamente destrutturate, quali “lo vuole l’Europa“. L’Europa non può voler nulla per definizione: sarebbe corretto dire “così vorrebbe l’eurodirigenza“.

Similmente si potrebbe argomentare per l’abusato termine ‘euroscettico‘. Euroscettico non è la persona che metta in forse l’Unione Europea: l’euroscettico non condivide l’attuale eurodirigenza, che vorrebbe pensionare e sostituire.

Per finire in breve, le teorie politiche dovrebbero essere trattate e vissute come tali: teorie utili in certe istanze, inutili e dannose in altre. Le teorie politiche ed economiche vissute come dogmi di fede sclerotizzano la società e danno la stura a guerre di religione laddove sarebbe stata utile e proficuo il solo dibattito politico.

* * * * * * *

Una volta chiariti questi possibili motivi di incomprensione, ma ce ne sarebbe centinaia di altri da chiarire, i problemi dell’attuale eurodirigenza con i paesi del Visegrad emergono semplicissimi, quanto irrisolvibili, perché ognuna delle controparte assume le proprie come posizioni di bandiera.

Le elezioni europee di maggio, e quelle politiche che si terranno nel’anno in sette stati dell’Unione, dovrebbero concorrere al chiarimento, se non altro perché l’attuale eurodirigenza se ne dovrà andare via.

«All the V4 members are EU member states, but only Slovakia is part of the eurozone …. They want to see a “Europe of homelands” rather than a political union.»

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«the refugee question. All four countries categorically reject fixed EU distribution quotas. Their inflexible position ….»

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«Constitutional developments – in Hungary and Poland particularly – have also strained the relationship with the EU: The EU Commission has launched infringement procedures against both countries in response»

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«L’état, c’est moi»

Questa frase aveva un suo senso logico se detta da Re Luigi XIV, ma detta da Mr Juncker, Mr Macron o da Frau Merkel fa soltanto sorridere.

Lo stato sono i Cittadini Contribuenti che ogni certo numero di anni diventano anche Elettori.


Deutsche Welle. 2019-02-08. This is how the Visegrad Group works

The German chancellor is meeting the heads of state of the Visegrad Group. But what do Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia actually stand for? And what sort of relationship do they have with the EU?

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What is the Visegrad Group?

The Visegrad Group – V4 for short – is an alliance of four eastern and central European states: Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. They take their name from the Hungarian city of Visegrad, where kings once met for economic and political negotiations.

In 1991, Poland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia – as it still was then – joined forces to work together more closely and prepare their planned EU accession. Today, the V4 countries exchange information and develop priority programs in order better to cooperate in an increasing number of areas. An important basic principle is that, within the EU, the V4 carry more weight as an alliance than they would as individual countries. Each year a different member of the group takes over the V4 presidency.

What relationship does the Visegrad Group have with the EU?

All the V4 members are EU member states, but only Slovakia is part of the eurozone. Observers often refer to the V4 as “two plus two,” because of their differing attitudes to European integration. Slovakia and the Czech Republic are comparatively Europe-friendly, whereas Hungary and Poland take a much more eurosceptic approach. These two, in particular, are keen to give member states within the EU a much stronger role once more: They want to see a “Europe of homelands” rather than a political union.

What are the bones of contention with the EU?

Despite their differences and the fact that they belong to different political groupings within the EU, in recent years one topic, in particular, has brought the V4 together: the refugee question. All four countries categorically reject fixed EU distribution quotas. Their inflexible position is largely responsible for the EU’s inability to make progress in reforming its refugee laws. At the end of 2017, the EU Commission instituted legal proceedings against Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic over their refusal to take in refugees from an agreed EU distribution program.

Constitutional developments – in Hungary and Poland particularly – have also strained the relationship with the EU: The EU Commission has launched infringement procedures against both countries in response.

What are the positions of the individual V4 countries?

Hungary

Hungary does not want to become a country of immigration. This is what its prime minister, Viktor Orbán, has repeatedly emphasized. It has erected a separation fence along the border with Serbia and Croatia. More than 170,000 people applied for asylum in Hungary in 2015; in 2017, the figure was just under 3,400. Orbán is also one of the harshest critics of Chancellor Angela Merkel and her refugee policy.

Unlike the rest of the V4 group, Hungary has a good relationship with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Orbán and Putin meet regularly; the two countries have complementary economic and security policy interests. Refugee policy is not the only issue that has Hungary at loggerheads with the EU: Orbán’s restructuring of the constitutional state and the accompanying restrictions on media freedoms, the undermining of the constitutional court, and the action he has taken against civil society organizations have caused the EU to launch several infringement procedures against Hungary. 

Poland

Poland was the first country against which the EU instigated proceedings; these were for violations against the principles of the rule of law. The reason for this was the country’s controversial judicial reform, which the EU considers to have undermined the independence of the judiciary and the separation of powers in Poland. To date, the reform has only been partially revoked.

Like Hungary and the Czech Republic, Poland refused to take in refugees and was sued by the EU as a result. Its categorical refusal to accept distribution quotas is still creating tension. Although Warsaw refuses to tolerate any interference in its domestic affairs, leaving the EU is not an option for Poland – the economic benefits of membership for the country are too great.

Czech Republic

The Czech prime minister, Andrej Babiš, is also a staunch opponent of EU solidarity on refugee policy. He declared last year that his country would not take in “a single illegal migrant.” Economically, the Czech Republic is very closely integrated into the EU. However, it has a big problem with corruption and is not really seeing much improvement. Prime Minister Babiš is the second-richest man in the country and is suspected of unlawfully pocketing millions of euros in EU subsidies via one of his companies.

Slovakia

Slovakia is in the eurozone, and wants to become part of a “core Europe.” It’s the only V4 country that has agreed to take in small contingents of refugees; and in doing so, unlike the other V4 countries, it avoided prosecution by the EU Commission. However, last year Slovakia voted with Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic to reject the UN Migration Pact. The Slovak prime minister, Peter Pellegrini, said at the time: “Slovakia does not agree that there is no difference between legal and illegal migration, and we consider economic migration to be illegal, damaging, and a security risk.”

Like the Czech Republic, Slovakia too has a corruption problem that extends into the higher levels of government.

Pubblicato in: Demografia, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Visegrad. Denatalità, emigrazione, immigrazione e mercato del lavoro.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-12-06.

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«Yet, much more attention ought to be given in those countries to how much migrants are needed for their booming economies’ labour markets»

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«This has been a result of consequent high economic GDP growth of 3-4 percent in the past five years, compared to the EU’s average of two percent growth»

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«In 2017, these were 4.8 percent (Poland, PL); 4.3 percent (Czechia, CZ); 4.1 percent (Hungary, HU) and 3.2 percent (Slovakia, SK) respectively»

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«In parallel, unemployment dropped heavily to 4.9 percent (PL); 2.9 percent (CZ); 4.2 percent (HU) and 8.1 percent (SK) by 2017.»

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«Business surveys confirm labour shortages limit production, building activity and business. In industry, 43.7 percent (CZ); 83.3 percent (HU); 49.9 percent (PL); and 34.9 percent (SK) of surveyed companies state this is a problem. or the construction sector, 37.8 percent (CZ); 64.4 percent (HU); 49.0 percent (PL) and 30.3 percent (SK) do. Moreover, in services 17.3 percent (CZ); 38.3 percent (HU); 28.9 percent (PL) and 18.6 percent (SK) attest.»

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«In addition, the V4 is set to suffer as well from its demographic situation. Emigration and low fertility rates remain serious problems, dating back to their economic shock-therapy transitions where many struggled and had no jobs.»

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«The 2004 EU accession, particularly, caused many to emigrate abroad in search of (better paid) work abroad: circa three million people (registered) left the V4 between 2004 and 2016.»

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«While profiting from remittances, this caused brain drain and the outflow of high-skilled labour.»

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I problemi demografici si instaurano molto lentamente ed ancor più lento è il processo percettivo della dimensione del problema.

Ma quando ci si rende conto dei fatti, i tempi biologici non possono essere compressi: ai nove mesi della gestazione si devono aggiungere almeno una ventina di anni di preparazione scolastica per il livello del diploma, tempo che sale a venticinque anni con il conseguimento di una laurea.

L’unico elemento certo è che senza delle appropriate politiche familiari i triboli attuali non potranno fare altro che ingigantirsi.


EU Observer. 2018-11-29. Visegrad migration policy risks undermining own economy

People’s migration fears have been an easy one to exploit for electoral opportunism by many politicians in Europe.

Particularly in the Visegrad states of Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, it has either brought nationalist anti-immigration parties into power or helped consolidate their grip on it.

Yet, much more attention ought to be given in those countries to how much migrants are needed for their booming economies’ labour markets.

This has been a result of consequent high economic GDP growth of 3-4 percent in the past five years, compared to the EU’s average of two percent growth.

In 2017, these were 4.8 percent (Poland, PL); 4.3 percent (Czechia, CZ); 4.1 percent (Hungary, HU) and 3.2 percent (Slovakia, SK) respectively.

In parallel, unemployment dropped heavily to 4.9 percent (PL); 2.9 percent (CZ); 4.2 percent (HU) and 8.1 percent (SK) by 2017.

Latest European Commission forecasts show these will continue decreasing sharply to 2.9 percent (PL); 2.5 percent (CZ); 3.3 percent (HU) and 6.3 percent next year, well below the five percent normal unemployment rate.

As good as that might sound, a side-effect has been that many vacancies remained unfulfilled.

The amount of open vacancies has more than quadrupled in the past five years. Especially in Czechia and Poland this is causing serious problems, despite the latter’s profiting from Ukrainian migrants.

The need of more workers

The commission’s Spring and Autumn forecasts highlight these risks, which could undermine long-term growth, or even overheat the economy in the case of Czechia.

For Poland, despite the Ukrainian influx, there are doubts whether they can continue filling some of these shortages.

Business surveys confirm labour shortages limit production, building activity and business.

In industry, 43.7 percent (CZ); 83.3 percent (HU); 49.9 percent (PL); and 34.9 percent (SK) of surveyed companies state this is a problem.

For the construction sector, 37.8 percent (CZ); 64.4 percent (HU); 49.0 percent (PL) and 30.3 percent (SK) do.

Moreover, in services 17.3 percent (CZ); 38.3 percent (HU); 28.9 percent (PL) and 18.6 percent (SK) attest.

The labour shortages have also led to wages rising much faster than the rise in productivity.

In Slovakia and Hungary, Volkswagen and Kia for instance were forced to significantly increase wages because of strikes. Generally, labour costs are spiking in the Visegrad states.

While benefitting workers in the short-term, the economy could suffer in the long-term, as they undermine their low-wage economic models. It also jeopardises essential foreign investment that has helped drive growth.

Demographic troubles

In addition, the V4 is set to suffer as well from its demographic situation. Emigration and low fertility rates remain serious problems, dating back to their economic shock-therapy transitions where many struggled and had no jobs.

Due to this, populations remained stagnant since 1990.

The 2004 EU accession, particularly, caused many to emigrate abroad in search of (better paid) work abroad: circa three million people (registered) left the V4 between 2004 and 2016.

While profiting from remittances, this caused brain drain and the outflow of high-skilled labour. In turn, it also undermined welfare spending and made government budgets less growth friendly.

Demographics could constrain economic growth and governmental budgets again in the future.

Baseline projections for 2020 up to 2060 show the Visegrad Four’s population could decrease by another 6.5 million people. In addition, the dependency ratio is set to increase sharply as well.

The need of migration

The dire demographic situation and labour shortages imply action is needed. Tight labour markets have already limited economic expansion in different sectors.

Overcapacity problems increase slowdown of the economy. Rapidly rising wages that do not translate into sufficient growth in productivity rates also make matters worse

While in Poland Ukrainian labour prevented worse labour shortages, it is unclear how many more will come or stay. This means for Poland, as well as for the others that additional migrants from elsewhere will be needed.

More could be done as well to promote people having children and attract former emigrants. It should also make sure to keep current migrants, especially Ukrainians in the case of Poland.

Current hostile rhetoric on migration could backfire economically as many more migrants are needed to fill labour shortages and keep economies running smoothly.

This also requires honest debates in which the pros and cons of migration are discussed, as well as the Visegrad’s overall demographic problems, since dependency ratios will continue to increase.

Therefore, rather than focusing on the imagined threat of migration and exploiting fears for electoral opportunism, the Visegrad’s politicians would be wise to focus on the actual threat of how the lack of migrants could undermine their economic models, and with it their future prosperity and welfare.

Moreover, while migration has been a successful strategy to win elections in the short term, it could backfire in the long term.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Visegrad, Italia e Spagna. – V4 Report.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-19.

Visegrad 001

«Now is not the time for “socialist fantasies”.»


Conoscere la posizione sulla migrazione illegale tenuta dal Visegrad è di interesse, essendo quattro voti compatti in seno al Consiglio Europeo.

«Matteo Salvini accuses Spain of encouraging “out-of-control” immigration. Salvini is right on target. This is exactly what Spain is doing»

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«Our concern is for the security, culture and identity of the European people»

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«One can see what is occurring in Spain. It is an abomination. They have surrendered the borders and now want to remove the barbed wire fences at the border. They are encouraging mass illegal migration (overwhelmingly aggressive male migrants) which harms other European nation states»

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«Italy, Spain and Greece: Migrant arrivals are down 80% in Matteo Salvini’s Italy. However, the arrivals have surged in Socialist Spain by 350% and Greece by nearly 50%.»

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«As the number of crossings fell, deaths in the Mediterranean Sea were halved, falling from 2,240 to 1,111. The drastic fall is a direct result of the policies of Salvini and Italy’s new government, which is fighting to end illegal crossings and to protect their borders»

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«Unfortunately, we are less optimistic regarding PM Giuseppe Conte, who continues his attempt to redistribute the migrants across Europe…instead of working on initiatives to deport the illegal migrants outside of Europe»

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«we believe Salvini is having a much greater impact on Europe compared to Emmanuel Macron, who was touted as the EU’s “new hope” by his fans in the media»

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I paesi del V4 sono quindi sostanzialmente di accordo con Mr Salvini ed invece sono alquanto dubbiosi sulla condotta politica di Mr Conte.

A nostro personale parere si dovrebbe sottolineare come Mr Conte, essendo il Presidente del Consiglio, debba mutuare istanze talora divergenti in seno al Governo stesso, nonché cercare un modus vivendi con i partner europei.

Sarebbe ingenuo volere tutto e subito.


V4 Report. 2018-08-16. V4 Report: Italy: Matteo Salvini accuses Spain

V4 Report: Italy: Matteo Salvini accuses Spain of encouraging “out-of-control” immigration. Salvini is right on target. This is exactly what Spain is doing.

Somebody needed to openly challenge Spain. Good for Matteo Salvini. The leaders of Spain are “out of control” and negligently exposing the security of all in Europe with their reckless policies at the border.

– Italy’s interior minister, Matteo Salvini, has accused Spain of “encouraging out-of-control immigration.”

“We will not respond to insults from a government and a minister who favor out-of-control immigration,” said Salvini in statements to the Italian television station RAI, the news agency Europa Press reported.

Salvini added, “Our concern is for the security, culture and identity of the European people.”

Salvini’s counterpunch came after Spain’s foreign minister, Josep Borrell, gave an interview to the German daily Handelsblatt in which he shamelessly accused Italy of implementing an immigration policy that harms other EU member states.

– Let’s be clear. One can see what is occurring in Spain. It is an abomination. They have surrendered the borders and now want to remove the barbed wire fences at the border. They are encouraging mass illegal migration (overwhelmingly aggressive male migrants) which harms other European nation states. Others must not be held hostage by their extreme left-wing ideology or multicult manifesto.

We would encourage Visegrad, Austria and the CEE nation states to support Salvini. The leaders of Spain and Brussels already have “relocation” on their agenda. We don’t often agree with Germany, but they should secure their borders from this new potential migrant route. It may encourage France and Switzerland to do the same.

At this point, others must seal-off Spain to send them a strong message: Either assume the responsibility of securing your borders (like Salvini) or you will soon find yourselves swamped.

Now is not the time for “socialist fantasies”.


V4 Report. 2018-08-16. Italy, Spain and Greece: Migrant arrivals are down 80% in Matteo Salvini’s Italy. However, the arrivals have surged in Socialist Spain by 350% and Greece by nearly 50%.

Italy, Spain and Greece: Migrant arrivals are down 80% in Matteo Salvini’s Italy. However, the arrivals have surged in Socialist Spain by 350% and Greece by nearly 50%.

While Salvini took courageous action to defend his border, the leaders of Spain continue to surrender their border. The numbers speak for themselves.

** Over 57,500 illegal migrants and asylum seekers have arrived in Europe by sea so far this year, compared to 112,375 over the same period last year, the UN Migration Agency said in a paper Tuesday.

As the number of crossings fell, deaths in the Mediterranean Sea were halved, falling from 2,240 to 1,111.

The drastic fall is a direct result of the policies of Salvini and Italy’s new government, which is fighting to end illegal crossings and to protect their borders.

*** The V4 Report believes Salvini has done an excellent job to date. He is strong, confident and focused. Despite the vicious and slanderous attacks directed at him by the leaders of France and the media, Salvini continues to receive an increasing amount of support from Italians.

Unfortunately, we are less optimistic regarding PM Giuseppe Conte, who continues his attempt to redistribute the migrants across Europe…instead of working on initiatives to deport the illegal migrants outside of Europe.

A power-struggle may be developing in Italy but we believe Conte is no match for Salvini, who carries the most influence in Italy.

In fact, we believe Salvini is having a much greater impact on Europe compared to Emmanuel Macron, who was touted as the EU’s “new hope” by his fans in the media.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Visegrad. Situazione politica e previsioni elettorali.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-05.

Visegrad 011

I paesi del Visegrad, ai quali si è unita negli ultimi tempi l’Italia, hanno tutti una Weltanschauung che si fonda sul loro retaggio religioso, storico, culturale, sociale ed anche sulla loro tradizione artistica. Sostengono fermamente un’Unione Europea concepita come unione tra Nazioni Sovrane ai fini di garantire un sistema economico di libero scambio, mentre simultaneamente rigettano la concezione di un’Europa Unita transitata a Stati Uniti di Europa e governata sia dall’attuale eurodirigenza sia dalla visione ideologica liberal.

Sono due visioni opposte ed antitetiche che potrebbero trovare un momento di sintesi di reciproco gradimento solo se l’attuale eurodirigenza rinunciasse alla sua particolare visione etica e morale dello stato. Ma questo non è più un problema rilevante: gli Elettori non votano più i liberal socialisti, che stanno scomparendo con dura agonia.

Tuttavia la Weltanschauung dei paesi Visegrad sta conquistando rapidamente l’Elettorato europeo: si sta imponendo con la forza delle urne.

Il 4 marzo 2018, per esempio, il partito filoeuropeo italiano, il partito democratico, è crollato dal 40.8% conseguito alle ultime elezioni europee all’attuale 17%, ed i partiti simil – Visegrad hanno ottenuto una schiacciante maggioranza.

Ma simili fenomeni si stanno evidenziando in parte nei paesi nordici, e molto più visibilmente nei paesi baltici ed in Grecia, ove le formazioni euroscettiche si stanno avviando alla maggioranza assoluta. Tra breve tempo, saranno loro la norma in Europa.

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Nel breve volgere di un anno il volto dell’Unione Europea potrebbe esser cambiato radicalmente.

Se in seno al Consiglio Europeo la maggioranza dei capi di governo e di stato potrebbero verosimilmente essere tutti euroscettici, il parlamento europeo potrebbe altrettanto verosimilmente essere completamente ribaltato.

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I prossimi dodici mesi saranno cruciali e nessuno si dovrebbe stupire che alla fine il volto dell’Unione Europea e del mondo fosse sostanzialmente cambiato.

Termometro Politico ha pubblicato un interessante Report:

Sondaggi elettorali, luglio 2018: contro Europa sovranista, le intenzioni di voto nei Paesi del Gruppo di Visegrad.

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Sondaggi elettorali, luglio 2018: Europa, le intenzioni di voto nei Paesi del Gruppo di Visegrad.

Ungheria, Repubblica Ceca, Slovacchia e Polonia sono i Paesi del cosiddetto Gruppo di Visegrad, nato nel 1991 con l’obiettivo di fungere da elemento di cooperazione culturale e politica. Un’alleanza che si distingue all’interno dell’Unione Europea – di cui tutti e quattro i Paesi fanno parte dal 2004, sebbene solo la Slovacchia abbia ad oggi adottato la moneta unica – per un approccio decisamente sovranista e contrario alle spinte federaliste sovranazionali. Una “contro Europa sovranista” che negli ultimi mesi si è consolidata in particolar modo sullo scottante tema della crisi migratoria, con una ferma opposizione alle politiche di redistribuzione dei migranti portate avanti in seno all’UE. Ma quale è la situazione dei sondaggi elettorali in questi 4 Paesi, stando alle rilevazioni condotte dai principali istituti demoscopici nazionali?

Sondaggi elettorali Europa, luglio 2018: le intenzioni di voto in Ungheria.

Come si può facilmente intuire, un po’ ovunque sono i partiti euroscettici a farla da padrone. A partire dall’Ungheria, il cui premier Viktor Orban viene considerato un po’ come il kingmaker all’interno del Gruppo di Visegrad. Il suo Fidesz, alleato da anni con il Partito Popolare Cristiano Democratico, veleggia ben oltre il 50%. Un dato persino in crescita rispetto alle elezioni dell’aprile scorso, che hanno visto l’asse raccogliere il 49% dei consensi e circa 2/3 dei seggi in Parlamento. Cifre a cui fa da contraltare il profondo declino della sinistra socialista (MSZP). Scesa dal 25% del 2014 a poco meno del 12% alle ultime elezioni. Ed ancora in calo nelle ultime rilevazioni, che la vedono mediamente appena sopra il 10%.

L’unica vera opposizione ad Orban sembra ormai essere Jobbik. Partito ugualmente nazionalista ed euroscettico, al netto della svolta moderata attuata nell’ultimo anno per attirare in particolar modo il consenso di un sempre più smarrito elettorato socialista. Una linea che però non sembra produrre particolari frutti. Ad oggi, infatti, Jobbik non andrebbe oltre il 17%. In calo sia rispetto al 19% dell’aprile scorso che al 20% delle elezioni di 4 anni fa.

Sondaggi elettorali Europa, luglio 2018: le intenzioni di voto in Repubblica Ceca.

I cittadini della Repubblica Ceca si sono recati alle urne meno di un anno fa, sancendo il successo del partito ANO 2011 di Andrej Babis, che è diventato il nuovo premier del Paese alla guida di un governo di minoranza monocolore, che ha successivamente visto l’ingresso di ministri del Partito Socialdemocratico (CSSD) e l’appoggio esterno del Partito Comunista (KSCM).

Pur con una composizione spostatasi gradualmente verso il centro-sinistra, l’esecutivo Babis non si dimostra meno euroscettico degli altri partner di Visegrad. Ulteriore testimonianza ne è il muro eretto negli ultimi giorni dal premier sulle richieste del suo omologo italiano, in merito alla questione della redistribuzione dei migranti. Non a caso, l’euroscetticismo è uno dei tratti principali che uniscono i tre partiti di governo. Una linea che sembra piacere all’elettorato, stando alle ultime rilevazioni. Che vedono i 3 partiti di governo confermare sostanzialmente le posizioni di aprile se non crescere di qualche punto, con ANO al 29% e CSSD ed KSCM rispettivamente all’8 e 9%.

Sondaggi elettorali Europa, luglio 2018: le intenzioni di voto in Slovacchia.

In Slovacchia la situazione sta diventando molto difficile per i socialdemocratici europeisti (SMER-SD), dopo le dimissioni dell’ex premier Robert Fico in seguito alla crisi di governo generata dalle proteste di massa succedute all’uccisione del giornalista Jan Kuciak. L’avvicendamento tra Fico e il nuovo premier Peter Pellegrini ha contribuito a tamponare l’emorragia di consenso provocata dall’assassinio di Kuciak. Dopo aver perso 3-4 punti nelle prime settimane, lo SMER-SD ora sembra tenere al 21%. Restando partito di maggioranza relativa ma registrando un calo di ben 7 punti rispetto al risultato elettorale del 2016.

Riguardo ai partner di governo dei socialdemocratici, passo avanti per i nazionalisti di SNS. Che ora sarebbero in doppia cifra ed in crescita di un paio di punti rispetto al 2016. Stabili al 6% invece gli europeisti di Most-Hid, che avevano costretto Fico alle dimissioni. Contrari alla burocrazia di Bruxelles invece i liberali SAS, che ad oggi si confermano come maggior partito di opposizione, guadagnando 2 punti rispetto a 2 anni fa e crescendo sino al 14%. Crescono di 3 punti i neonazisti di L’SNS (11%), ad oggi terza formazione del Paese.

Sondaggi elettorali Europa, luglio 2018: le intenzioni di voto in Polonia.

Ad un anno dalle prossime elezioni, in Polonia tutto sembra prevedere un nuovo successo di Diritto e Giustizia (PIS), la formazione di destra euroscettica fondata dai fratelli Kaczynski, che può attualmente contare sia sul premier (Mateusz Morawiecki) che sul presidente della Repubblica (Andrzej Duda). Con il 43% il PIS si confermerebbe nettamente il primo partito polacco. Crescendo di ben 6 punti rispetto al 2015 e tornando ai livelli del 2005. Resterebbe al 24-25% invece Piattaforma Civica, il principale partito di opposizione.

Le prossime elezioni potrebbero riconfermare – perlomeno in parte – la Waterloo della sinistra andata in scena nel 2015. Che vide nessun partito in grado di conquistare seggi in Parlamento. Accreditata dell’8% è l’Alleanza della sinistra democratica, dopo la fallimentare esperienza del 2015 all’interno della coalizione Sinistra Unita, incapace di superare la soglia di sbarramento dell’8% prevista per le coalizioni. Stavolta, in caso di corsa solitaria potrebbe andare meglio, visto la diversa soglia (5%) applicata ai singoli partiti non coalizzati. Conferma attorno al 9% invece per Kukiz’15, la formazione di destra antipartitocratica fondata dal musicista Pawel Kukiz. In bilico attorno alla soglia del 5% invece i popolari di PSL (stabili). Stesso valore per i liberali di Nowoczesna (in calo di un paio di punti rispetto al 2016).

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Merkel a Varsavia. Un colloquio non facile. Il NYT fa un gaffe.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-03-20.

Varsavia 001

Quando pochi giorni dopo la vittoria di Sedan il Cancelliere Otto von Bismarck portò al Kaiser la bozza di trattato di pace, questi si arrabbiò in modo furibondo. Il trattato era insolitamente equilibrato e ben poco impositivo.

Il Kaiser convocò immediatamente il Cancelliere e gli chiese spiegazioni. Bismarck gli rispose che i trattati di pace si stilano come se si fosse persa la guerra.

Solo statisti di rango capiscono come dopo la guerra ritorni la pace, e come questa possa durare serena solo nell’accordo tra le parti.

I rapporti germano – polacchi si sono deteriorati sostanzialmente nel tempo.

Molti motivi sono più che reali, sicuramente, ma la rigidità di Berlino e di Bruxelles hanno avuto gran peso: credevano di essere onniscienti ed onnipotenti. Si illudevano persino di godere i favori degli Elettori,

Tuttavia al momento molte situazioni sono mutate.

Il 24 settembre Frau Merkel è uscita dalle elezioni nettamente ridimensionata: mantiene la cancelleria, ma il suo peso politico è talmente basso che il suo nuovo Ministro degli Interni Herr Seehofer la sberleffa ogni giorno: la Merkel non può non tener conto di quanto instabile sia l’attuale Große Koalition.

Poco dopo l’Austria ha eletto cancelliere Herr Kurz che si è alleato con l’Fpö: la sua posizione non è certo quella di uno strenuo supporter dell’Unione Europea e dei temi così cari a Mr Juncker ed alla Frau Merkel.

Il 4 marzo l’Elettorato italiano ha ridimensionato il partito democratico, portandolo dal 40.8% delle elezioni europee allo attuale 18.72%. I vincitori delle elezioni sono tutto tranne che zerbinotti dell’Unione e della Germania.

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A quadro politico mutato, ne consegue un diverso atteggiamento di Frau Merkel, prima durissima nei giudizi contro la Polonia ed i paesi del Visegrad.

Mentre in altri tempi i polacchi avrebbero dovuto andare a Berlino e mettersi sull’inginocchiatoio posto davanti la scrivania della Bundeskanzlerin, tutti attenti a sentire gli ordini, adesso è Frau Merkel che va in pellegrinaggio in Polonia: questo è uno scacco diplomatico davvero cocente.

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«There are also concerns that the rise of far-right, anti-migrant parties in Austria and Italy could contribute to a rift between Brussels and central European countries.»

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«Merkel will seek to emphasize the need for unity in the European Union as well as Germany’s commitment to NATO military spending targets.»

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«She’ll have to balance between enlisting Poland’s help with backing the EU while also being firm on EU core principles that have been challenged by Poland’s sweeping judicial reforms»

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«In an effort to combat the growing rift between eastern and western European Union member states, Germany’s new Foreign Minister Heiko Maas urged closer ties during a meeting with his Polish counterpart last Friday.»

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Riassumiamo questa prima parte.

L’eurodirigenza attuale pro tempore ha condotto i rapporti con gli stati membri con una durezza del tutto fuori luogo, e che adesso si evidenzia in tutta la sua stoltezza: pensava di essere saldamente al governo e che tutti i popoli europei la appoggiassero. Mai fu fatto un così grande errore di valutazione. Adesso deve andare a Canossa.

Gli Stati Uniti di Europa fortemente voluti da Mr Juncker sono una pura utopia: una Unione Europea economica, che rispetti popoli e stati sembrerebbe invece essere la soluzione ottimale.

Un tentativo di forzare la situazione potrebbe esitare in una frattura. Così come il cercare di continuare ad imporre etiche e morali non condivisibili da parte dei paesi dell’est europeo così come dai partiti “populisti”, che però stanno per avere il sopravvento.

Mr Juncker, Mr Tusk e Frau Merkel non hanno più la maggioranza in seno al Consiglio di Europa.

Poi c’è anche i resto.

«German Chancellor Angela Merkel will emphasize bilateral ties and the need for European unity when she meets with top Polish officials, amid ongoing differences between the allies over Polish judicial reforms, migration and a new gas pipeline»

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«reassuring Poland about Berlin’s commitment to NATO military spending targets»

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«The stakes are high, given concerns that gains by anti-migrant parties in Austria and Italy could exacerbate tensions between Brussels and central European countries such as Poland»

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«North Stream 2 will be one of the important issues on this meeting agenda, as well as the future of the European Union, the EU future budget and many other issues»

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Godiamoci adesso la lettura dell’articolo comparso sul The New York Times. È tutto un capolavoro di diplomazia.

Merkel in Poland for Talks on EU Future, Security

«German Chancellor Angela Merkel is in Poland for top-level talks that will focus on the European Union’s future and security, and on bilateral issues between the neighboring countries.

Merkel was greeted Monday by Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki before going into talks on the EU’s post-Brexit future, the bloc’s budget, ways of solving the migration crisis and Poland’s refusal to accept migrants under an EU plan.

They will also discuss the EU’s energy security and Poland’s opposition to a planned Russia-to-Germany gas pipeline, as well as Europe’s strained relations with Moscow.

Merkel will also meet with President Andrzej Duda.

She is making her second foreign trip, after visiting Paris, since she was sworn in for a fourth term last week.

Germany’s new foreign minister visited Warsaw on Friday.»

Nessun accenno alla questione della riforma della giustizia.

Proprio nessun accenno: come se non fosse mai esistita e mai esistesse.


Reuters. 2018-03-19. Merkel to push for EU unity on delicate Poland trip

German Chancellor Angela Merkel will emphasize bilateral ties and the need for European unity when she meets with top Polish officials, amid ongoing differences between the allies over Polish judicial reforms, migration and a new gas pipeline.

Merkel will meet with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and President Andrzej Duda on Monday, using her second foreign trip since being sworn in for a fourth term to highlight Germany’s commitment to the former Soviet bloc member at a time of heightened tensions with both Russia and the United States.

The German leader must pull off a delicate balancing act – reassuring Poland about Berlin’s commitment to NATO military spending targets and enlisting its backing for the European Union, without backing away from EU core principles that have been challenged by Poland’s sweeping judicial changes.

The stakes are high, given concerns that gains by anti-migrant parties in Austria and Italy could exacerbate tensions between Brussels and central European countries such as Poland.

Michal Dworczyk, head of the Polish prime minister’s office, told private broadcaster TVN24 the two sides had a lot to discuss.

The gas pipeline “North Stream 2 will be one of the important issues on this meeting agenda, as well as the future of the European Union, the EU future budget and many other issues,” he said.

The pipeline would ship Russian gas to Germany, avoiding transit through Ukraine. It has Germany’s approval, but Poland has urged that Western sanctions be imposed on it .

Polish government spokeswoman Joanna Kopcinska said Warsaw hoped for “a good and pragmatic cooperation with Berlin.”

German government officials say they are upbeat, given Poland’s growing concerns about Russian military aggression, uncertainty about U.S. policy shifts, and Warsaw’s pending loss of Britain as an ally opposing further euro zone expansion.

“Merkel has the chance to make clear to the Polish government that Europe’s democrats must stand together against Putin and Trump, also for the sake of Poland,” said Franziska Brantner, foreign policy spokeswoman for the German Greens.

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, a Social Democrat, stressed close ties between the two neighbors during a meeting with Polish Foreign Minister Jacek Czaputowicz on Friday.

The two men urged the revival of the Weimar Triangle, a platform of political cooperation between Germany, France and Poland created in 1991. Foreign ministers from the three countries last met in Weimar in August 2016.

“The visit of Chancellor Merkel shows that Germany cares about good relations with Poland,” said Michal Baranowski, head of the Warsaw office of the German Marshall Fund. “(It) shows a desire at the highest level to fix the relationship.”

Ties between Germany and Poland have grown increasingly strained since the since the nationalist conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS) came to power in Warsaw in 2015, with Berlin rejecting calls by PiS for German war reparations.

The two countries are also at odds over the North Stream II gas pipeline project and Poland’s refusal to take in asylum seekers under an EU-wide quota system.

Deutsche Welle. 2018-03-19. Angela Merkel to visit Poland in bid to thaw chilly relations

Germany’s Angela Merkel is carrying a message of EU unity on her trip to Warsaw. But with tensions simmering over refugee quotas and Poland’s controversial judicial reforms, the chancellor will have to walk a fine line.

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German Chancellor Angela Merkel will travel to Warsaw on Monday for talks with Polish leaders aimed at improving relations which have been strained by disagreements on rule of law, immigration and refugee policy, Poland’s new Holocaust law, as well as a new gas pipeline.

On her second foreign trip since being sworn in for a fourth term as chancellor, Merkel will meet with Polish President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.

Polish government spokeswoman Joanna Kopcinska said Warsaw hoped for “a good and pragmatic cooperation with Berlin.”

Tricky territory in Warsaw trip

Merkel will seek to emphasize the need for unity in the European Union as well as Germany’s commitment to NATO military spending targets.

She’ll have to balance between enlisting Poland’s help with backing the EU while also being firm on EU core principles that have been challenged by Poland’s sweeping judicial reforms.

Both Brussels and Berlin say Warsaw’s reforms are an attack on the independence of the judiciary. The Polish government, however, maintains that the reforms are necessary to root out corruption.

The Polish government has also come under fire for passing a new law that bans certain statements about the Holocaust, which critics say amounts to a denial of the actions of some Poles during the Holocaust.

Unresolved tensions concerning divergent immigration policies still remain, particularly over Poland’s opposition to an EU-wide plan to redistribute asylum-seekers.

Warsaw has also criticized the planned “Nord Stream 2” gas pipeline, which will be routed from Russia to Germany, but bypass Poland and Ukraine.

Rift in EU unity

In an effort to combat the growing rift between eastern and western European Union member states, Germany’s new Foreign Minister Heiko Maas urged closer ties during a meeting with his Polish counterpart last Friday.

Both foreign ministers called for the revival of the Weimar Triangle, a political cooperation platform between Poland, Germany and France. Their last meeting was in 2016.

Ties between Germany and Poland became particularly strained after the Polish nationalist, conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS) came to power in 2015.

There are also concerns that the rise of far-right, anti-migrant parties in Austria and Italy could contribute to a rift between Brussels and central European countries.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Partito Socialista Europeo minaccia sanzioni contro l’Austria.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-01-16.

Unione Europea Eurpa 001

Mr Gianni Pittella è il leader del gruppo parlamentare dei socialisti europei.

Nome noto.

«strong advocate of mandatory migrant quotas …. Pittella is a bitter opponent of Viktor Orban and Visegrad»

L’11 agosto twittava:

«Will Austria be the next target of the EU Inquisition?»

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Ieri è ritornato sull’argomento:

«We are worried about the extreme-right drift in Austria. Sanctions cannot be excluded»

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Il partito socialista europeo ha al momento 189 eurodeputati su 750.

Per le elezioni da tenersi nel 2019 forse potrebbe anche arrivare a sessanta seggi.


V4 Report. 2018-01-14. Socialist European Parliament group leader Gianni Pittella: “We are worried about the extreme-right drift in Austria. Sanctions cannot be excluded.”

* The V4 Report on Twitter: Socialist European Parliament group leader Gianni Pittella: “We are worried about the extreme-right drift in Austria. Sanctions cannot be excluded.”

This was reported from the account of Sándor Zsíros or EuroSandor on Twitter. He is an excellent source of information regarding the inside scoop in Brussels. We recommend following him on Twitter.

** The V4 Report tweeted in reply: There they go again. EUparliament Socialists are eyeing-up new targets for EU “reprogramming”. Leaders of nation states must grasp the impact of Article7 on Poland. If Brussels succeeds here, their lust for power will only intensify. Time to stop them now!

– The V4 Report is familiar with Pittella, a member of the radical Party of European Socialists (PES) and strong advocate of mandatory migrant quotas. Pittella is a bitter opponent of Viktor Orban and Visegrad.

Below is a post from August 11, 2017 regarding the agenda of Pittella and some of his extremist colleagues at the EU Parliament.

*** Will Austria be the next target of the EU Inquisition? Or maybe Hungary or Croatia or ……

Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Cina risponde all’ultimatum di Macron in stile cinese.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-01-13.

Ceec. 16 + 1. 002. Bassa Risoluzione

Guardate con attenzione la carta geografica. I paesi evidenziati in ocra aderiscono alla Ceec sotto guida cinese. I cinesi non sono lontani.


Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern Europe Countries (Ceec) è una voce che non compare in Wikipedia, ma che fa passare notti insonni agli eurocrati di Bruxelles.

Ci siamo già estesamente occupati di questa organizzazione, che agisce nell’ambito del programma cinese Belt and Road.

Questo è l’elenco degli stati membri, coordinati dalla Cina: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia.

Cina. Ceec, un nome da imparare. Dazi ridotti dal 17.3% al 7.7%.

Cina. Sta colonizzando l’Europa dell’Est e l’Unione si strappa i capelli.

Eastern Europe cozies up to China

China-CEEC Summit 16+1 in Budapest

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A questa iniziativa si aggiunge Trimarium, nota anche come Three Seas Initiative, che raduna e coordina i dodici stati ex est Europa al momento incardinati nella Unione Europea. Per il momento, almeno, poi si vedrà.

Dopo il 4 marzo forse anche l’Italia potrebbe aderire a Trimarium e, forse, anche al Ceec.

«Visto da Mosca, l’Est europeo era e resta una zona di frontiera, che si vende al miglior offerente in cambio di benessere e sicurezza. Per l’America e le spaventate élite locali, il gioco vale la candela. Ma per l’Ue è il seme della dissoluzione. Di cui la Russia beneficerà.» [Limes]

«per l’Ue è il seme della dissoluzione. Di cui la Russia beneficerà»

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«Si allarga il gruppo di Viségrad e coinvolge dodici membri dell’est (solo l’Austria non era nell’orbita sovietica). Con posizioni molto diverse su vari temi. Posizione condivisa sulla necessità di sviluppare le vie di comunicazione nord-sud.

Il Gruppo di Viségrad, cioè l’alleanza informale di cooperazione e sinergia diplomatrica/politica che all’interno dell’Unione europea e della Nato unisce Polonia, Ungheria, Cechia e Slovacchia, si allarga e diventa un’intesa istituzionale e pragmatica tra dodici paesi.

Il nuovo blocco-alleanza nell’ambito della Ue si chiama Trimarium ed è costituito da paesi dell’Est tutti membri di Ue e Alleanza: alcuni sono ex paesi satelliti di Mosca all’epoca dell’Unione Sovietica, altri sono ex repubbliche yugoslave, uno è dalla sua rinascita nel dopoguerra paese neutrale (l’Austria)» [Fonte]

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Inutile dire quanta preoccupazione abbia la dirigenza dell’Unione Europea sulla nascita di queste organizzazioni, dietro alle quali si staglia la potenza morale, politica ed economica della Cina, in fondo l’unica potenza che abbia fatto qualcosa per quei popoli.

Al momento attuale, molte nazioni del Ceec hanno un interscambio commerciale maggiore con la Cina rispetto a quello che hanno con l’Unione Europea.

Ma dal blocco economico si fa presto a scivolare nel blocco politico. Ed i paesi del Ceec, per non parlare poi di quelli del Trimarium hanno posizioni strategiche vitali, sia visti da est sia visti da ovest.

È un clima di nervosismo palpabile.

Di recente, la Cina di Mr Xi ha varato un progetto di investimenti in zona Ceec di circa 100 miliardi di euro.

L’Unione Europea non ci ha visto più: essa infatti non ha nemmeno qualche spicciolo per investimenti: tutto è inghiottito in una voragine di welfare, clima, rinnovabili, gender. Acquedotti, ponti, strade, ferrovie son ben fuori dalla mentalità dell’Unione.

Così il Presidente francese Mr Macron è andato in Cina ed ha consegnato un ultimatum EU a Mr Xi: ben se ne guardi di elargire simili fondi agli stati Ceec. Li dovrebbe dare alla Unione Europea che poi li avrebbe distribuiti secondo i propri canoni filantropici agli stati membri amici. Ed i paesi del Visegrad sono nemici mortali.

Macron consegna l’ultimatum EU alla Cina. Mr Xi terrificato.

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La risposta cinese è stata a stretto giro di posta.

Mr Liu Zoukui ha fatto visita all’Ungheria di Mr Orban. Ha intrattenuto i rapporti bilaterali che Mr Macron aveva proibito alla Cina, ed hanno firmato altri contratti commerciali.

«We in China think that all countries have the right to determine their own foreign policy»

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«Hungary is being attacked for expressing its disapproval of certain EU decisions»

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«the engine of globalisation is not necessarily in the West anymore, but in Asia, and Hungary started to seek economic partners outside the EU too»

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«An important motivation of the criticism is that Western European countries are afraid to lose their economic influence over the Eastern member states who participate in the 16+1»

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«it’s becoming clear that the EU can’t provide an answer to the CEE region’s economic needs»

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«China is not meddling in political debates»

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«Obviously, from their complete collapse over migration, Angela Merkel and the leaders of Brussels do not have all the answers»

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«In fact, they may be the problem»

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Lo schiaffo è arrivato sono, amplificato dal fatto che Mr Xi lo ha fatto dare da un funzionario di alto grado sì, ma non certo di apice.

Ci si pensi bene, perché il nuovo avanza a passi lunghi. Guardate con attenzione la mappa. Si è formata de facto una zona cuscinetto, utile a tutti tranne che all’Unione Europea.

Intanto, siamo al quarto mese in cui la Germania è senza governo.


V4 Report. 2018-01-11. Hungary, CEE and China: “The EU has no answer to CEE’s economic needs.”

 ** “We in China think that all countries have the right to determine their own foreign policy”, Liu Zoukui said, denouncing the tendency that “Hungary is being attacked for expressing its disapproval of certain EU decisions”.

The expert reminded that Hungary has been consistently representing its standpoint regarding migration. He praised Viktor Orban for realising that “the engine of globalisation is not necessarily in the West anymore, but in Asia, and Hungary started to seek economic partners outside the EU too”.

*** An important motivation of the criticism is that Western European countries are afraid to lose their economic influence over the Eastern member states who participate in the 16+1, he added.

According to Liu Zuokui it’s becoming clear that the EU can’t provide an answer to the CEE region’s economic needs, the concept of the two-speed Europe is also a sign of internal divisions. He stressed that the 16+1 cooperation focuses only on the economy, China is not meddling in political debates.

– The vast majority of Visegrad and CEE states are emerging markets that will require new markets and opportunities to continue to grow. A “one-size-fits-all” policy created in Brussels and Berlin may be good for France and Germany, but it may hinder the growth of Central Europe.

Obviously, from their complete collapse over migration, Angela Merkel and the leaders of Brussels do not have all the answers. In fact, they may be the problem.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Orban bloccherà le azioni legali EU contro la Polonia.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-12-22.

Visegrad 001

«Se i polacchi si sono espressi in modo inequivocabile alle urne conferendo la maggioranza al partito Legge e Giustizia, tra l’altro in quelle elezioni non risultò essere eletto nemmeno un deputato della sinistra, risentono ancora della pregressa dittatura che aveva nominato giudici costituzionali dei liberal di provata fede.

Più che organo giuridico, la Corte Costituzionale polacca era diventata lo strumento politico tramite il quale operava la dirigenza liberal e socialista europea: formava uno stato nello stato e perseguiva interessi stranieri. Un gruppo di fuoco per il killeraggio degli avversari politici dei liberal.»

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2017-12-14. Unione Europea e Polonia. Scontro frontale. – Bloomberg

2017-12-10. Polonia. La Camera bassa approva la riforma della giustizia.

2017-12-12. Unione Europea. Segni iniziali di squinternamento.

2017-12-14. Consiglio Europeo. Unione Europea in quarantena. I documenti ufficiali.

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L’Unione Europea ha portato i paesi del Visegrad davanti la Corte di Giustizia e, quindi, ha deciso che avrebbe attivato l’Articolo 7 del Treaty on European Union contro la Polonia, a causa della riforma fatta sull’amministrazione della giustizia.

Il Consiglio d’Europa avrà bisogno della maggioranza di due terzi per attivare l’articolo 7, ossia diciotto voti validi.

«Article 7 TEU

Article 7 TEU aims at ensuring that all EU countries respect the common values of the EU, including the rule of law. The preventive mechanism of Article 7(1) TEU can be activated only in case of a ’clear risk of a serious breach’ and the sanctioning mechanism of Article 7(2) TEU only in case of a ’serious and persistent breach by a Member State’ of the values set out in Article 2.

The preventive mechanism allows the Council to give the EU country concerned a warning before a ’serious breach’ has actually materialised.

The sanctioning mechanism allows the Council to suspend certain rights deriving from the application of the treaties to the EU country in question, including the voting rights of that country in the Council. In that case the ’serious breach’ must have persisted for some time.» [http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content]

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«Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban says his country would form an “insurmountable roadblock” against EU attempts to trigger Article 7»

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«Orban said, “if one attacks Poland, it attacks all of Central Europe»

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«Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on Friday said that Hungary sees a strong Poland as a vital component of a central European caucus within the European Union and that he would, therefore, block any action to suspend Poland’s voting rights in the EU»

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«We need to make it clear to the EU that it is pointless to even start proceedings against Poland as there is no chance of seeing it through – because Hungary will be there and form an insurmountable roadblock»

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«Orban said Poland had been criticized unfairly and unjustly»

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«The overwhelming majority of Poles think about immigration the same way as the Hungarians»

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Se le azioni legali e le dichiarazioni della attuale dirigenza pro tempore europea sono tranchant, non meno drastica è la presa di posizione ungherese.

Staremo a vedere come evolveranno le cose, ma i paesi del Visegrad non intendono certo farsi schiavi di questa dirigenza dell’Unione Europea.

La befana potrebbe anche portare il collasso dell’Unione Europea.


Deutsche Welle. 2017-12-22. Hungary will block punitive EU action on Poland

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban says his country would form an “insurmountable roadblock” against EU attempts to trigger Article 7. Orban said, “if one attacks Poland, it attacks all of Central Europe.”

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Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on Friday said that Hungary sees a strong Poland as a vital component of a central European caucus within the European Union and that he would, therefore, block any action to suspend Poland’s voting rights in the EU.

The European Commission recently launched proceedings to trigger Article 7 against Poland for breaching European common values and rule of law.

“We need to make it clear to the EU that it is pointless to even start proceedings against Poland as there is no chance of seeing it through – because Hungary will be there and form an insurmountable roadblock,” Orban said.

Commission Vice-President Frans Timmermans said Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party had adopted 13 laws in the last two years that created a situation where the state “can systematically interfere with the composition, powers, the administration and the functioning” of the judiciary.

Article 7 was designed to deter member states from advancing policies that threaten democratic institutions. If the EU member states agree with the Commission’s recommendation to trigger Article 7, Poland could see its voting rights suspended. A two-thirds majority vote is needed for it to proceed.

Orban said Poland had been criticized unfairly and unjustly. “If one attacks Poland, it attacks all of Central Europe,” Orban told Hirado, a Hungarian public news station. 

The prime minister emphasized that it was in the interest of the Hungarian nation to have solidarity with the Poles and to make it clear that no EU punishment could be imposed on them, Hirado reported.

“The overwhelming majority of Poles think about immigration the same way as the Hungarians,” he added.

Orbán highlighted decision of the Visegrád Group countries – Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia – to provide significant financial assistance to Italy to stop migrants at sea borders.

He said millions of people in Africa would migrate in coming years, with one route coming through Italy. Orban said this should be closed and Italy protected.