Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

G20. Nessun paese ha adempiuto gli Accordi di Parigi del 2015.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-22.

Carbone. Consumi degli stati 001

«lunga promessa con l’attender corto / ti farà trïunfar ne l’alto seggio»

«achieving net zero will be virtually impossible».

Quando l’America e l’enclave liberal socialista europea sembravano essere ancora egemoni, tutti gli stati sottoscrissero gli Accordi i Parigi. Chi non avesse sottoscritto il ‘clima’ sarebbe stato sanzionato.

Ma le parole sono parole: solo i dati fattuali contano.

Gli obiettivi posti erano ‘virtually impossible’, ed hanno fatto la fine di tutti i sogni sradicati dalla realtà: nessuno si sogna di mantenere la parola data.

                         Sources.

Statistical Review of World Energy – British Petroleum

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

* * * * * * *


«Not a single G20 country is in line with the Paris Agreement on climate»

«None of the world’s major economies — including the entire G20 — have a climate plan that meets their obligations under the 2015 Paris Agreement»

«The watchdog Climate Action Tracker (CAT) analyzed the policies of 36 countries, as well as the 27-nation European Union, and found that all major economies were off track to contain global warming»

«The analysis also included some low-emissions countries, and found that the Gambia was the only nation among all 37 to be “1.5 compatible.”»

«Under the 2015 Paris accord, more than 190 countries agreed to limit the increase in global temperatures»

«The report comes less than two months ahead of UN-brokered international climate talks in Glasgow, known as COP26»

«CAT reported that progress had stalled after dozens of world leaders made ambitious new pledges to slash greenhouse gas emissions during the US President Joe Biden’s Climate Leaders’ Summit in April»

«The overall climate plans of the US, European Union and Japan are not sufficient»

«CAT had previously categorized the US as “critically insufficient” — the worst category»

«All signatories were supposed to update their NDCs by July 31 this year under the Paris accord. There are still more than 70 countries that have yet to submit an update»

«India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are among countries that missed the July 31 deadline. China, the world’s biggest polluter, announced a new target, but hasn’t formally submitted it to the UN»

«Of particular concern are Australia, Brazil, Indonesia Mexico, New Zealand, Russia, Singapore, Switzerland and Vietnam: they have failed to lift ambition at all, submitting the same or even less ambitious 2030 targets than those they put forward in 2015»

«The continued use of coal remains a significant policy problem, the report found, with China and India retaining huge coal pipelines. Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan and South Korea are also planning to go ahead with coal use in the future»

«The Australian government, which has said it will keep mining coal past 2030, is also investing money into new gas exploration and infrastructure»

«Cutting emissions is a non-negotiable part of the Paris Accord»

«achieving net zero will be “virtually impossible»

* * * * * * *

I dati riportati in Tabella dovrebbero essere eloquenti.

La relazione fornita dalla Climate Action Tracker dovrebbe essere altrettanto eloquente. Ma se gli stati se ne fanno un baffo degli Accordi di Parigi, i liberal socialisti se ne fanno uno  torciglione di quello che facciano gli stati, e la manfrina prosegue.

Possiamo quindi concludere come il ‘clima’ sia una pura e semplice, ma costosissima, buffonata.

*


Not a single G20 country is in line with the Paris Agreement on climate, analysis shows.

None of the world’s major economies — including the entire G20 — have a climate plan that meets their obligations under the 2015 Paris Agreement, according to an analysis published Wednesday, despite scientists’ warning that deep cuts to greenhouse gas emissions are needed now.

The watchdog Climate Action Tracker (CAT) analyzed the policies of 36 countries, as well as the 27-nation European Union, and found that all major economies were off track to contain global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The countries together make up 80% of the world’s emissions.

The analysis also included some low-emissions countries, and found that the Gambia was the only nation among all 37 to be “1.5 compatible.” As the study only included a few smaller emitters, it’s possible there are other developing countries in the world on track as well.

Under the 2015 Paris accord, more than 190 countries agreed to limit the increase in global temperatures to well below 2 degrees above pre-industrial temperatures — ideally to 1.5 degrees. Scientists have said 2 degrees is a critical threshold for some of the Earth’s ecosystems, and is one that would also trigger more catastrophic extreme weather events.

The report comes less than two months ahead of UN-brokered international climate talks in Glasgow, known as COP26. The event’s president, British MP Alok Sharma, has said he hopes to “keep 1.5 alive” as a global warming limit.

CAT reported that progress had stalled after dozens of world leaders made ambitious new pledges to slash greenhouse gas emissions during the US President Joe Biden’s Climate Leaders’ Summit in April.

“In May, after the Climate Leaders’ Summit and the Petersburg dialogue, we reported that there appeared to be good momentum with new climate action commitments,” said Niklas Höhne, a founding partner of the NewClimate Institute, a CAT partner.

“But since then, there has been little to no improvement: nothing is moving,” he said. “Anyone would think they have all the time in the world, when in fact the opposite is the case.”

Six countries, including the UK, have an overall climate policy that is “nearly sufficient,” according to the report, meaning they are not yet consistent with 1.5-degree alignment but could be with small improvements. The UK’s targets are in line with 1.5 degrees, but its policies in practice don’t meet the benchmark.

The overall climate plans of the US, European Union and Japan are not sufficient to reach the 1.5-degree goal, the analysis found, saying that while their domestic targets are relatively close to where they need to be, their international policies are not.

CAT had previously categorized the US as “critically insufficient” — the worst category — under former President Donald Trump, who formally withdrew the country from the Paris Agreement shortly before the end of his term.

The United States’ domestic emission-cutting target has since been upgraded to “almost sufficient.” However, the US is still insufficient in CAT’s “fair share” target rating, which takes into account the country’s “responsibility and capability.”

Under the Paris agreement, countries submitted their pledges to cut emissions, also known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs. All signatories were supposed to update their NDCs by July 31 this year under the Paris accord. There are still more than 70 countries that have yet to submit an update.

India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are among countries that missed the July 31 deadline. China, the world’s biggest polluter, announced a new target, but hasn’t formally submitted it to the UN.

And many countries submitted an “update” without actually increasing their pledge. Brazil and Mexico submitted the same targets as they did in 2015. Changes to those countries’ baseline assumptions make their pledges weaker than they were before, the analysis showed. Russia, the CAT report said, submitted an update that looks stronger on paper, but doesn’t amount to meaningful change.

“Of particular concern are Australia, Brazil, Indonesia Mexico, New Zealand, Russia, Singapore, Switzerland and Vietnam: they have failed to lift ambition at all, submitting the same or even less ambitious 2030 targets than those they put forward in 2015. These countries need to rethink their choice,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, another CAT partner.

The continued use of coal remains a significant policy problem, the report found, with China and India retaining huge coal pipelines. Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan and South Korea are also planning to go ahead with coal use in the future.

CAT also warned that in many countries’ attempts to wean of coal, which is generally the fossil fuels that causes the most emissions, many countries were looking to use more natural gas, which CAT said was being falsely sold as a “bridging fuel.”

The Australian government, which has said it will keep mining coal past 2030, is also investing money into new gas exploration and infrastructure, and “is of particular concern,” CAT said in its report.

Thailand has plans to ramp up new gas as it phases out coal, while the EU is still planning to commit public funding to new gas infrastructure, and various member states are lobbying hard for the continued use of this fossil fuel.

Hare warned against the development of blue hydrogen, based on natural gas, as an alternative to other fossil fuels.

“Gas is a fossil fuel, and any investment into gas today risks becoming a stranded asset. And while interest in green hydrogen has grown exponentially, there is still a large number of hydrogen projects in the pipeline where it’s produced from gas,” Hare said. “Hydrogen produced from gas still produces carbon, and is inconsistent with reaching net zero.”

                         Net zero by 2050

Cutting emissions is a non-negotiable part of the Paris Accord. Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases trap solar radiation in the atmosphere, just like glass traps heat in a greenhouse. This causes temperatures to rise and drives more extreme weather, ice melt, sea level rise and ocean acidification.

To keep the warming under 1.5 degrees, the world needs to reach net zero by 2050, a landmark UN climate science report published in August showed.

Net zero refers to a state when the amount of greenhouse gas emitted is no greater than the amount removed from the atmosphere.

According to UN Climate Change, just over 130 countries have pledged to cut emissions to net-zero so far. The new analysis by CAT found that even if all of them followed up on their plans, warming would still reach 2 degrees.

If they stick with the policies they have in place, temperatures will likely be 2.4 degrees higher by the end of century.

Temperatures are already around 1.2 degrees higher than they were before humans started burning huge amounts of fossil fuels, so room for error is very limited.

“An increasing number of people around the world are suffering from ever more severe and frequent impacts of climate change, yet government action continues to lag behind what is needed,” said Bill Hare, the CEO of the think tank Climate Analytics and another author of the analysis.

While many governments have committed to net zero, Hare said that without a real action soon, achieving net zero will be “virtually impossible.”

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio

Laos. Ferrovia Boten–Vientiane (China–Laos railway) quasi terminata.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-13

Laos-China Railway

«The Boten–Vientiane railway (often referred to as the China–Laos railway) is a 414 kilometres (257 mi) 1,435 mm (4 ft 8+1⁄2 in) standard gauge electrified railway under construction in Laos, between the capital Vientiane and the small town of Boten on the border with China. It is the most expensive and largest project ever to be constructed in Laos.

In the north the line will be connected to the Chinese rail system in Mohan, through the Yuxi–Mohan railway. In the south it meets the existing metre-gauge railway in Thanaleng, linking it via Nong Khai in Thailand to Bangkok. A high-speed, standard gauge extension to Bangkok is also under construction. When finished, the Boten–Vientiane railway will form an important part of the Kunming–Singapore railway.

China aims to build a 5,500-km trans-Asia railway, which begins in Yunnan’s provincial capital Kunming and travels through Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia, before ending in Singapore, according to Ding He, a deputy project manager for the China–Laos railway project. The Boten–Vientiane railway is part of the Belt and Road Initiative.» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

«Despite the impact from the COVID-19 pandemic, both Chinese and Lao engineers are striving to complete the construction of the China-Laos Railway and put it on operation in the coming December as scheduled»

«It will be on December 2 when we are to complete the railway construction and make it ready for full operation»

«In the southern end of the railway in Vientiane, the China Railway No. 5 Engineering Group (CREC-5) has completed the construction of the main structure of the longest bridge along the China-Laos Railway, the Phonethong super major bridge with a length of 7,528.56 meters and 231 piers»

«In the northern end of the railway, the China Railway Construction Engineering Group (CRCEG) roofed the Lao border gate station in Boten On June 15, while the same Chinese company ceiled the top of the first railway station in Nateuy, some 360 km north of Lao capital Vientiane, nine months ago on Sept. 16, 2020»

«There is a Chinese saying ‘to get rich, build roads first»

«In the past two years, the cooperation between Laos and China has been outstanding. Especially, the first modern Vientiane-Vangvieng Expressway»

«an operating speed of 160 km per hour.»

* * * * * * *

Caratteristica del progetto Belt and Road è quello di dotare il sud-est asiatico di una rete ferroviaria ed autostradale allo stato dell’arte. Senza un sistema coordinato di rete ferroviaria ed autostradale sarebbe impossibile lo scambio di merci ed i viaggi delle persone.

Non solo.

La China–Laos railway si prolungherà fino in Thailandia, servendo Nakhon Ratchasima ed, infine, Bangkok ed il suo porto, i cui traffici sono quindi previsti in forte aumento. Le infrastrutture generano posti di lavoro.

*


Roundup: Construction progress of China-Laos Railway on schedule despite pandemic

VIENTIANE, June 25 (Xinhua) — Despite the impact from the COVID-19 pandemic, both Chinese and Lao engineers are striving to complete the construction of the China-Laos Railway and put it on operation in the coming December as scheduled.

“It will be on December 2 when we are to complete the railway construction and make it ready for full operation,” Xiao Qianwen, general manager of the Laos-China Railway Co., Ltd., a joint venture based in Lao capital Vientiane for the construction and operation of the first modern railway in the country, told Xinhua on Friday.

“We are not changing the timetable and we are striving for that goal, with over 90 percent of the engineering work done, and our preparation for the operation is well on the way.”

In the southern end of the railway in Vientiane, the China Railway No. 5 Engineering Group (CREC-5) has completed the construction of the main structure of the longest bridge along the China-Laos Railway, the Phonethong super major bridge with a length of 7,528.56 meters and 231 piers.

In the northern end of the railway, the China Railway Construction Engineering Group (CRCEG) roofed the Lao border gate station in Boten On June 15, while the same Chinese company ceiled the top of the first railway station in Nateuy, some 360 km north of Lao capital Vientiane, nine months ago on Sept. 16, 2020.

By May 15, the construction of all 67 communication towers along the China-Laos railway had completed, while the China-Laos railway tracks had been extended from Vientiane to the northern end of Boten.

“We will installed all the tracks by mid-August,” Lei Chao, a China Railway No. 2 Engineering Group (CREC-2) railing base project manager, told Xinhua on Friday in Vientiane.

Lei said the CREC-2 teams are carry out strict precaution measures against the COVID-19 pandemic as to achieve uninterrupted construction of the project with zero infection case. The company kicked off the track laying on March 27, 2020.

According to Xiao Qianwen, most of the construction sites are located in tropical mountainous areas, with complex geographical conditions and poor traffic conditions, resulting in difficulties for the construction.

Especially during the rainy season, the machinery can not get access to the construction sites and sometimes the Chinese engineering teams even have to turn to the piggyback transportation to carry large amounts of the needed materials and equipment.

The China-Laos Railway’s construction has been confronted with huge challenges and difficulties during the pandemic, but the construction progress in an orderly and balanced manner has boosted the confidence in the timely completion of the railway in this December, Bounthong Chitmany, vice president of Laos, said when talking to Xiao Qianwen in the Lao presidential palace on June 15.

On June 10, when inspecting the Vientiane railway station’s construction, Lao Deputy Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone praised the Chinese engineering company there which hired some 700 local employees, hoping the railway will offer more jobs to local communities.

The deputy prime minister, on behalf of the Lao government, hailed and progresses and achievements of the China-Laos Railway construction amid the epidemic, saying that the railway is a landmark project of the friendship between Laos and China and its completion coincides with the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Laos, which is of great significance.

Both sides must cooperate to efficiently advance the remaining work, complete the construction and start the operation on schedule, and live up to the ardent expectations of the two parties and the two peoples, said Sonexay.

“The COVID-19 pandemic has brought many difficulties to the Lao people, and thus, I especially expect the railway to be open to traffic this year, which is something the Lao people have been dreaming for a long time,” said Somphone Inleuangsy, aged 24, from Luang Namtha, a mountainous province in northern Laos that borders China. He is currently receiving training at the CREC-2 railing base on the northern outskirts of Vientiane.

She told Xinhua “There is a Chinese saying ‘to get rich, build roads first,’ and I hope Laos, with the Laos-China railway, will become prosperous soon. I also hope Laos will become a transportation hub in Southeast Asia to drive the development in the region.”

“As a female, among all over 600 trainees of the China-Laos Railway, I feel very honored and proud. I hope that I can become a formal railway employee after the training, and I hope my parents can see how I drive a train,” Somphone said. “I also hope that with the opening of the China-Laos railway, more Chinese friends can come to help the development here.”

At present, a total of 636 Lao youngsters are trained for the future operation of China-Laos Railway, working as train drivers, equipment and infrastructure maintenance personnel.

“In the past two years, the cooperation between Laos and China has been outstanding. Especially, the first modern Vientiane-Vangvieng Expressway in Laos has been put into operation through cooperation, and the high-speed Laos-China Railway will be completed by the end of this year,” said Valy Vetsaphong, Lao Prime Minister’s advisor and vice president of the Lao National Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

“This is due to the policy coordination between the two countries, and the dovetail between Laos’ strategy to convert from a landlocked country to a land-linked hub and China’s Belt and Road Initiative.”

Valy told Xinhua “The Laos-China Railway will lay a new foundation for the introduction of foreign investment, and Laos will surely take the advantage to participate in the regional and global industrial chain. In other words, the China-Laos Railway will not only promote bilateral trade, investment and people-to-people exchanges, but also benefit the countries to be connected. I believe that the completion and operation of the Laos-China railway will promote the post-pandemic recovery of neighboring countries and the whole region.”

The over 400 km railway will run from Boten border gate in northern Laos bordering China to Vientiane with an operating speed of 160 km per hour.

The electrified passenger and cargo railway is built with the full application of the Chinese management and technical standards. The construction of the project started in December 2016 and is scheduled to be completed and open to traffic in December 2021. Enditem

Pubblicato in: Agricoltura, Commercio, Devoluzione socialismo

Vietnam. Il lockdown impedisce l’export del caffè. Un modello economico in crisi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-02.

Michelamgelo Minosse 010

Il Vietnam è il principale produttore mondiale del caffè “robusta”, tipologia utilizzata per la produzione di caffè solubile.

Al momento attuale, il lockdown per l’insorgere dell’epidemia da variante Delta ha ridotto al minimo l’exsport di tale tipo di caffè, con grave danno dei produttori, carenza di questa merce sui mercati internazionali, ed il conseguente aumento dei costi, saliti già del 50% da inizio anno.

* * * * * * *

«Vietnam is a major producer of robusta, the bitter tasting bean used in instant coffee and some espresso blends»

«Wholesale robusta bean prices have risen by about 50% so far this year»

«The lockdown of the South-Eastern city of Ho Chi Minh means Vietnam’s exporters are struggling to transport goods, including coffee beans, to ports for shipment around the world»

«The travel restrictions present yet another problem to exporters already faced with a serious shortage of shipping containers and soaring freight costs»

«The city and its ports are a key part of the global shipping network that runs from China to Europe»

«Brazil, the world’s biggest producer of the premium arabica coffee beans, has seen its crops impacted by drought and frosts»

* * * * * * *

Questo è un severo campanello di allarme.

Il modello economico secondo il quale i raccolti avrebbe sempre dovuto essere rigogliosi e l’export immediato dal paese coltivatore a quelli che lo processano sembrerebbe non più funzionare.

Una delle conseguenze maggiori consiste nel fatto che l’industria che lavora la materia prima sarà obbligata a costituire scorte significative, con ulteriore aggravio dei costi.

*


Vietnam lockdown adds to global coffee supply concerns

Vietnam has added to concerns over global supplies of coffee as the South East Asian country’s biggest city remains in lockdown.

The exporting hub of Ho Chi Minh has been kept under tough travel restrictions after a surge in cases of the Delta variant of the coronavirus.

Vietnam is a major producer of robusta, the bitter tasting bean used in instant coffee and some espresso blends.

Wholesale robusta bean prices have risen by about 50% so far this year.

The lockdown of the South-Eastern city of Ho Chi Minh means Vietnam’s exporters are struggling to transport goods, including coffee beans, to ports for shipment around the world.

The travel restrictions present yet another problem to exporters already faced with a serious shortage of shipping containers and soaring freight costs.

The city and its ports are a key part of the global shipping network that runs from China to Europe.

The Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association and other trade organisations have called on the country’s government to ease the restrictions to help avoid further delays to shipments and related costs.

Last week, Vietnam’s transport minister responded to the concerns by ordering regional authorities in the south of the country to take action to ease unnecessary burdens on the transport of goods, including coffee.

The issues faced by Vietnamese producers are just the latest problem to hit the coffee industry.

Brazil, the world’s biggest producer of the premium arabica coffee beans, has seen its crops impacted by drought and frosts.

The worst frosts in Brazil since 1994 have sent the cost of unroasted coffee beans to the highest level seen in close to seven years.

According to reports, the frost damage was so severe that some coffee farmers may need to replant trees, which could mean that its takes them up to three years to resume production.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Asiatica, Senza categoria, Stati Uniti

Afganistan. La débâcle americana è peggio del Vietnam. È devoluzione dell’America.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-16.

Afganistan 001

La decisione di Joe Biden di abbandonare l’Afganistan esula dal fatto contingente: è la constatazione che gli Stati Uniti non sono più, ovvero non vogliono più, essere una grande potenza mondiale politica, economica e militare.

Per decenni hanno creduto di poter gestire le guerre per procura, e che la loro potenza aerea e marittima le consentissero di dominare il mondo.

Questo assunto si è dimostrato essere falso, incominciando dal Vietnam.

In Afganistan aviazione e marina non servono a nulla.

Non è questione il dibattito, sterile, su chi abbia avuto per primo l’idea di lasciare l’Afganistan: fatto sì è che Biden è fuggito da quel paese senza essersi prima assicurato uno stato ed un esercito locale degno di quel nome. La situazione era infatti diventata insostenibile. Il suo esercito femminilizzato ha perso la volontà di combattere ed i problemi economici e sociali in patria sono ingravescenti.

Ma questo è solo l’ultimo degli errori fatti.

Per motivazioni ideologiche hanno tentato di esportare un reggimento democratico in un paese la mentalità del quale gli è aliena: è un paese tribale e mussulmano. Un esperimento destinato a fallire per definizione.

È patognomonico il fatto che i media occidentali riportino non quanto accade in Afganistan dal punto di vista degli afgani, bensì cose ne pensa la loro ideologia: nessuno sforzo per cercare di capire quella mentalità.

* * * * * * *

«The rout of Afghan forces as Taliban fighters take one provincial city after another provides a stark answer to anyone wondering about the success of two decades of U.S.-led efforts to build a local army»

«Despite about $89 billion budgeted for training the Afghan army, it took the Taliban little more than a month to brush it aside»

«They now stand almost at the gates of Kabul»

«But still, there has been shock at the lack of resistance put up by many Afghan army units»

«because they believed defeat was unavoidable»

«Once morale goes, it spreads very quickly»

«American officers have long worried that rampant corruption, well documented in parts of Afghanistan’s military and political leadership, would undermine the resolve of badly paid, ill-fed and erratically supplied front-line soldiers – some of whom have been left for months or even years on end in isolated outposts»

«Would you give your life for leaders who don’t pay you on time and are more interested in their own future?»

«The defeat highlights the failure of the United States to create a fighting force in the image of its own highly professional military with a motivated, well-trained leadership, high-tech weaponry and seamless logistical support»

«But whether it was ever a realistic goal to create a Western-style army in one of the world’s poorest countries, with a literacy rate of 40% and a social and political culture far from the developed sense of nationhood underpinning the U.S. military, is an open question»

* * * * * * *

Gli Stati Uniti stanno lentamente ma implacabilmente devolvendosi.

Certamente sono e rimarranno una grande potenza nucleare, ma il loro esercito rispecchia fedelmente la società americana.

Facciamoci infine una domanda. Chi ha finanziato, addestrato, armato e coperto politicamente il movimento talebano? Ebbene, costoro sono i veri vincitori.

* * * * * * *

Taliban surge exposes failure of U.S. efforts to build Afghan army

Aug 15 (Reuters) – The rout of Afghan forces as Taliban fighters take one provincial city after another provides a stark answer to anyone wondering about the success of two decades of U.S.-led efforts to build a local army.

Despite about $89 billion budgeted for training the Afghan army, it took the Taliban little more than a month to brush it aside. Over the last few days, the insurgents have seized every major city in Afghanistan – from Kandahar in the south to Mazar-i-Sharif in the north, Herat in the west to Jalalabad in the east.

They now stand almost at the gates of Kabul.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani praised Afghan security and defense forces in a brief televised address on Saturday, saying they had “a strong spirit to defend their people and country.”

But still, there has been shock at the lack of resistance put up by many Afghan army units. Some abandoned their posts and others reached agreements with the Taliban to stop fighting and hand over their weapons and equipment.

In some instances, U.S. officials say, provincial governors asked security forces to surrender or escape, perhaps in order to avoid further bloodshed because they believed defeat was unavoidable.

Where deals were not cut, Afghan forces still appear to have melted away.

“Once morale goes, it spreads very quickly, and that is at least partly to blame,” a U.S. official said.

American officers have long worried that rampant corruption, well documented in parts of Afghanistan’s military and political leadership, would undermine the resolve of badly paid, ill-fed and erratically supplied front-line soldiers – some of whom have been left for months or even years on end in isolated outposts, where they could be picked off by the Taliban.

Over many years, hundreds of Afghan soldiers were killed each month. But the army fought on, without any of the airborne evacuation of casualties and expert surgical care standard in Western armies, as long as international backing was there. Once that went, their resolve evaporated.

“Would you give your life for leaders who don’t pay you on time and are more interested in their own future?” a second U.S. official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, asked.

It is an analysis shared by some in the Taliban movement itself.

One Taliban commander in the central province of Ghazni said the government forces’ collapse started as soon as U.S. forces started withdrawing “as they didn’t have any ideology except fleecing the Americans.”

“The only reason for this unexpected fall of provinces was our commitment and the withdrawal of U.S. troops,” he said.

‘REALISTIC’

The defeat highlights the failure of the United States to create a fighting force in the image of its own highly professional military with a motivated, well-trained leadership, high-tech weaponry and seamless logistical support.

On paper, Afghan security forces numbered around 300,000 soldiers. In reality, the numbers were never that high.

Dependent on a small number of elite Special Forces units that were shunted from province to province as more cities fell to the Taliban, the already high rate of desertion in the regular army soared.

As government forces started to fall apart, hastily recruited local militias, loyal to prominent regional leaders such as Marshal Abdul Rashid Dostum in the northern province of Faryab or Ismail Khan in Herat, also rushed in to fight.

Western countries had long been wary of such militias. Though more in line with the realities of traditional Afghan politics where personal, local or ethnic ties outweigh loyalty to the state, they were also open to corruption and abuse and ultimately proved no more effective than conventional forces.

Dostum fled to Uzbekistan as the Taliban advanced and Khan surrendered to the insurgents.

But whether it was ever a realistic goal to create a Western-style army in one of the world’s poorest countries, with a literacy rate of 40% and a social and political culture far from the developed sense of nationhood underpinning the U.S. military, is an open question.

U.S. army trainers who worked with Afghan forces struggled to teach the basic lesson of military organization that supplies, maintaining equipment and ensuring units get proper support are key to battlefield success.

Jonathan Schroden, an expert at the CNA policy institute, who served as an advisor to U.S. central command CENTCOM and the U.S.-led international force in Afghanistan, said the Afghan army functioned as much as a “jobs program” as a fighting force “because it’s the source of a paycheck in a country where paychecks are hard to come by.”

But the chronic failure of logistical, hardware and manpower support to many units, meant that “even if they want to fight, they run out of the ability to fight in relatively short order.”

Afghan forces have been forced repeatedly to give up after pleas for supplies and reinforcements went unanswered, either because of incompetence or the simple incapacity of the system to deliver.

Even the elite Special Forces units that have borne the brunt of the fighting in recent years have suffered. Last month, at least a dozen commandos were executed by Taliban fighters in the northern province of Faryab after running out of ammunition and being forced to surrender.

Richard Armitage, the former U.S. diplomat who organized a flotilla of South Vietnamese Navy ships to carry some 30,000 refugees out of Saigon before it fell in April 1975, has watched as the threat of a similar disaster unfolds in Kabul.

As deputy Secretary of State under former President George W. Bush when the United States invaded in 2001, he was deeply involved in Afghanistan diplomacy. He said the Afghan army’s collapse pointed to the wider failures of two decades of international efforts.

“I hear people expressing frustration in the press that the Afghan army can’t fight a long fight,” he said. “I can assure you the Afghan army has fought, can fight and if it’s got a trigger and something comes out of the barrel, they can use it.”

“The question is, is this government worth fighting for?” he said.

Pubblicato in: Commercio

Italia. Marzo21. Export +28.1%, Import +35.1%, su base annua. – Istat.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-19.

2021-05-19__ Istat Import Export 001

Istat ha rilasciato il Report Commercio con l’Estero e prezzi all’Import.

*

Nota.

Le percentuali anno su anno sono inusitatamente elevate a seguito del forte calo dei commerci avvenuto lo scorso anno.

* * * * * * *


Marzo 2021. Commercio con l’Estero e prezzi all’Import.

– A marzo 2021 si stima una crescita congiunturale per i flussi commerciali con l’estero, più intensa per le importazioni (+6,0%) che per le esportazioni (+3,2%). L’incremento su base mensile dell’export è dovuto all’aumento delle vendite sia verso l’area Ue (+3,7%) sia verso i mercati extra Ue (+2,6%).

– Nel primo trimestre del 2021, rispetto al precedente, l’export aumenta del 2,6%, l’import del 5,0%.

– A marzo 2021, l’export sale su base annua del 28,1%; la crescita è più sostenuta verso l’area Ue (+32,6%) rispetto all’area extra Ue (+23,2%). L’import registra un aumento tendenziale più marcato (+35,1%), con incrementi di analoga entità verso entrambi i principali mercati di sbocco, Ue ed extra Ue.

– Tra i settori che contribuiscono maggiormente all’aumento tendenziale dell’export si segnalano macchinari e apparecchi n.c.a (che crescono del +32,3%), metalli di base e prodotti in metallo, esclusi macchine e impianti (+35,4%), autoveicoli (+80,1%), mezzi di trasporto, autoveicoli esclusi (+43,6%) e articoli di abbigliamento, anche in pelle e in pelliccia (+57,4%). Solo le vendite di articoli farmaceutici, chimico-medicinali e botanici (-9,3%) sono in calo.

– Su base annua, le esportazioni crescono verso tutti i principali paesi partner; i contributi maggiori riguardano le vendite verso Germania (con un aumento del 30,6%), Francia (+39,0%), Spagna (+37,4%), Svizzera (+35,7%) e Paesi Bassi (+51,6%).

– Nel primo trimestre del 2021, la crescita tendenziale dell’export (+4,6%) è dovuta in particolare all’incremento delle vendite di metalli di base e prodotti in metallo, esclusi macchine e impianti (+13,7%), macchinari e apparecchi n.c.a. (+8,5%), autoveicoli (+22,3%) e apparecchi elettrici (+14,9%).

-La stima del saldo commerciale a marzo 2021 è pari a +5.190 milioni di euro (era +5.701 a marzo 2020). Al netto dei prodotti energetici il saldo è pari a +7.984 milioni (era +7.707 a marzo dello scorso anno).

-Nel mese di marzo 2021 i prezzi all’importazione aumentano dell’1,9% su base mensile e del 4,2% su base annua.

* * * * * * *


Il commento.

A marzo prosegue la dinamica congiunturale positiva dell’export, sostenuta dal commercio estero con i paesi sia Ue sia extra Ue. Nel primo trimestre dell’anno, rispetto all’ultimo del 2020, l’aumento dell’export è trainato essenzialmente dalle vendite verso l’area Ue. Nel confronto con marzo 2020 – quando anche il commercio con l’estero iniziò a subire gli effetti dell’emergenza sanitaria – la crescita dell’export è molto marcata e diffusa a livello settoriale e verso tutti i principali paesi partner. Le vendite di macchinari e metalli forniscono il contributo più ampio (oltre 9 punti percentuali) al forte incremento tendenziale delle esportazioni. Anche la crescita su base annua dell’import, più marcata di quella dell’export, interessa in modo generalizzato tutti i settori. Per i prezzi all’import, il rialzo congiunturale è dovuto soprattutto alle dinamiche positive di energia e beni intermedi; su base annua, i prezzi tornano a crescere dopo quasi due anni di variazioni tendenziali negative.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Diplomazia

Giappone. Il Parlamento ha ratificato l’adesione al Rcep. – Capolavoro diplomatico.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-03.

Rcep Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership 013

Rcep, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, indica una zona di libero scambio tra 15 paesi asiatici bagnati dall’Oceano Pacifico, più Australia e Nuova Zelanda. È un conglomerato che assomma circa un terzo della popolazione mondiale e poco più di un terzo del pil mondiale.

Adesso siamo solo agli inizi, ma a breve la zona geoeconomica dell’Asia oceanica assurgerà al ruolo di polo principale del mondo.

* * * * * * *

«The Diet on Wednesday approved the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership free trade deal among 15 Asian and Oceanian countries»

«Under the deal, which will create a huge free trade area accounting for some 30% of global gross domestic product and trade, tariffs will be abolished for 91% of products, mainly industrial items»

«RCEP groups the 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations — Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam — plus Japan, China, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand»

«India was one of the founding members but skipped all negotiations from November 2019 due to concerns that its trade deficit with China would grow»

«The free trade deal is a wide-ranging agreement calling for abolishing tariffs on industrial goods, including automobiles, and agricultural products, and writing new rules for e-commerce and intellectual property protection»

«Japan managed to have five agricultural product categories considered sensitive for the country — rice, wheat, beef and pork, dairy products and sugar — exempted from tariff cuts»

«Over some 20 years, the proportion of industrial products exempted from tariffs will rise from 8% to 86% for China and from 19% to 92% for South Korea»

* * * * * * *

«15-nation partnership is expected to cover nearly one-third of the world’s economy, trade and population and to come into effect from early 2022»

«By eliminating tariffs on 91 per cent of goods, the RCEP will create a free-trade zone covering nearly one-third of the world’s economy, trade and population»

«Japan is the second-biggest regional economy outside Asean to give its formal support to the deal»

«Thailand and Singapore have also ratified the agreement»

«India was one of the founding RCEP members but skipped all negotiations from November 2019 because of concern that its trade deficit with China would grow.»

* * * * * * *

La prima cosa che salta immediatamente agli occhi è l’assenza dal Rcep degli Stati Uniti, anche se molti paesi entrati nel Rcep avevano consistenti rapporti con l’America. È nella logica delle cose che con il tempo questi quindici paesi rinsaldino i reciproci rapporti commerciali, ai quali seguirà per forza di cose anche un aggrado politico. Sarà un processo lento e graduale dal quale gli Stati Uniti saranno esclusi.

Per seconda cosa, gli Stati Uniti dovranno usare molta diplomazia, arte nella quale non brillano, nel trattare con gli stati del Rcep, per non far precipitare gli eventi e perderli in modo definitivo. Ci si ricordi che gli americani hanno il vizietto di voler fare la morale a tutto il mondo, ed il mondo non ne può di più.

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La geopolitica e la geoeconomia del sud est asiatico è mutata.

*

Japan approves far-reaching RCEP free trade deal.

The Diet on Wednesday approved the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership free trade deal among 15 Asian and Oceanian countries.

The RCEP deal was approved at a plenary meeting of the House of Councillors, the upper chamber of the Diet. The House of Representatives, the lower chamber, gave its approval earlier this month.

Under the deal, which will create a huge free trade area accounting for some 30% of global gross domestic product and trade, tariffs will be abolished for 91% of products, mainly industrial items.

RCEP groups the 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations — Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam — plus Japan, China, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

India was one of the founding members but skipped all negotiations from November 2019 due to concerns that its trade deficit with China would grow.

The deal will be Japan’s first economic partnership agreement involving China or South Korea.

The pact will come into force after necessary domestic procedures are completed in at least six of the ASEAN member states and three other countries.

The free trade deal is a wide-ranging agreement calling for abolishing tariffs on industrial goods, including automobiles, and agricultural products, and writing new rules for e-commerce and intellectual property protection.

Japan managed to have five agricultural product categories considered sensitive for the country — rice, wheat, beef and pork, dairy products and sugar — exempted from tariff cuts.

Under the deal, food tariffs will be eliminated gradually, including China’s tariffs on scallops and Indonesia’s tariffs on beef.

Japan will scrap its tariffs on Shaoxing rice wine from China and makgeolli alcoholic drinks from South Korea.

China and South Korea will abolish their tariffs on auto parts in stages. Over some 20 years, the proportion of industrial products exempted from tariffs will rise from 8% to 86% for China and from 19% to 92% for South Korea.

The Japanese government hopes to put the pact into effect as early as possible as it expects the deal to increase the country’s real GDP by 2.7% and create 570,000 jobs.

*


Japan approves world’s biggest free-trade deal after China’s call to boost Asian economy

– 15-nation partnership is expected to cover nearly one-third of the world’s economy, trade and population and to come into effect from early 2022

– Vice-minister of foreign affairs calls for efforts to defend the multilateral trade system and expressed interest in China joining CPTPP

* * *

Japan’s parliament approved joining the world’s largest free-trade deal, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, on Wednesday as signatories aim for it to come into effect from the start of next year.

The approval by Japan’s uper house comes after the lower house gave the green light earlier this month and a day after China called for the deal to be ratified to shore up the economy in the Asia-Pacific.

The China-backed RCEP was signed in November last year and included the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) plus China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. By eliminating tariffs on 91 per cent of goods, the RCEP will create a free-trade zone covering nearly one-third of the world’s economy, trade and population.

It will also be the first deal of its kind involving China, Japan and South Korea, and comes as the three countries struggle to negotiate a trilateral free-trade agreement.

Japan is the second-biggest regional economy outside Asean to give its formal support to the deal.

China ratified the pact in March when the Ministry of Commerce said all members of the RCEP were planning to approve the deal by the end of the year for enforcement from 2022.

Japan’s government said in March that it expected the trade accord to boost the country’s GDP by 2.7 per cent and create 570,000 jobs.

Thailand and Singapore have also ratified the agreement. The deal will go into force 60 days after six of the Asean members and three non-Asean member states ratify it.

At a meeting of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific on Tuesday, China’s vice-minister of foreign affairs Ma Zhaoxu called for efforts to stick to regional economic integration and defend the multilateral trade system.

“China took the lead in the ratification of the RCEP and is ready to push forward with all sides for the early entry into force and implementation,” he said.

Ma also underlined China’s interest in joining the Japan-led Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which is more open and demands higher standards for trade, investment, competition and labour protection than the RCEP.

“We are willing to actively consider joining the CPTPP to inject a new push for the economic integration of the Asia-Pacific region,” he said. 

Wang Huiyao, director of the Beijing-based Centre for China and Globalisation, said the approval by Japan’s parliament sent a signal to the region, especially to Asean, on its support for economic integration despite increasingly complex geopolitical conditions.

“China will welcome the news. It’s a sign of support for regional economic integration. And the Japanese business community is still looking for a chance to cooperate with China, even though we don’t have a free-trade deal with Japan or a trilateral one with South Korea and Japan,” Wang said.

China is aiming to forge “high-standard” free-trade agreements with more partners in the next five years as well as closer cooperation along the industrial chain in the region, including in South Korea and Japan.

Wang Shouwen, China’s vice-minister of commerce, said in March that upon the enforcement of the RCEP, China would strive to speed up talks on the trilateral free-trade agreement.

Liu Jiangyong, an international relations professor at Tsinghua University, said enforcement of the RCEP would ease the way for China’s agricultural exports to Japan and reduce trade barriers to economic integration.

He also said the approval was a matter of procedure and much would depend on progress in the trilateral deal talks.

“Political tensions are expected to be a big restraint on forging the trilateral free-trade deal,” he said.

India was one of the founding RCEP members but skipped all negotiations from November 2019 because of concern that its trade deficit with China would grow.

In June last year, researchers at the Peterson Institute for International Economics found that the RCEP, which took seven years to negotiate, would add 0.4 per cent to China’s real income by 2030, while the trade war with the United States would trim 1.1 per cent, should hostilities at the time persist.

However, a study conducted in 2019 by researchers at the University of Queensland and the Indonesian Ministry of Finance found the RCEP would add just 0.08 per cent to China’s economy by 2030. Over the same period, the trade war with the US would slice 0.32 per cent from its GDP.

Researchers at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences were slightly more bullish on the prospects of the RCEP for China’s economy, estimating that over 10 years it would add 0.22 per cent to real GDP growth and 11.4 per cent to China’s total exports, should the schedule for trade liberalisation unfold as planned.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio

H&M. Dopo la Cina oltraggia anche il Vietnam. L’Asia è sugli scudi. Esige rispetto.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-04-13.

Asia Sud Est 001

H&M, Nike ed Adidas offendono la Cina ed i cinesi non comprano più i loro prodotti.

Shanghai. Governo chiede ad H&M di ritrattare. – La mutazione di Reuters.

H&M è scomparsa dalla Cina. Cerca di andare a Canossa, ma sarà dura. Se mai sarà.

Hugo Boss China continuerebbe ad usare il cotone dello Xinjiang.

* * *

Ford China sales up 73.3 percent in Q1

Il mercato sinoasiatico è l’unico al mondo ad essere in crescita tumultuosa. Le società occidentali che intendono sopravvivere sono obbligate a scappare dall’enclave occidentale liberal ed a rifugiarsi in Cina e nel mercato Asean e Rcep, ossia il mercato di libero scambio del sudest asiatico.

Ma per operare su tali mercati le società transfughe devono abbandonare la retorica liberal, pena l’ostracismo.

Gli orientali non intendono comprare le merci di quanti li denigrino e non li rispettino.

Ed i problemi delle ditte occidentali non si fermano solo a quelli cinesi.

* * *

«Hennes & Mauritz AB’s woes in Asia deepened after a “problematic” map on its website drew the attention of Chinese authorities, with the retailer’s attempts to resolve the matter then angering consumers in Vietnam»

«H&M’s Shanghai unit was summoned by two of the city’s regulators to correct mistakes on the image, and the company said it will carry out the rectification»

«Changes by the Swedish company to its map are infringing on Vietnam’s maritime sovereignty, the Saigon Giai Phong newspaper reported»

«H&M recently became a high-profile example of foreign companies punished for crossing China’s political lines, facing the brunt of the government’s ire against clothing retailers who criticize human rights abuses in the cotton-producing Xinjiang region»

«H&M’s outlets vanished from Apple Maps and Baidu Maps searches, and some stores in smaller cities were closed by landlords»

«China claims more than 80% of the South China Sea and backs up its claim with a 1947 map that shows vague dashes — the so-called nine-dash line — looping down to a point about 1,100 miles (1,800 kilometers) south of its Hainan island»

«Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan claim parts of the same maritime area, and have sparred with China over which claims are valid»

«Vietnamese law bars companies from using images that infringe on its sovereignty, which the nine-dash line represents»

«In 2019, Vietnam ordered cinemas to halt screenings of DreamWorks Animation’s “Abominable” because it showed the nine-dash line on a map»

* * * * * * *

Le realtà produttive dell’enclave occidentale liberal hanno adesso solo due alternative.

O morire di inedia assieme all’occidente, oppure trasformarsi ed operare secondo la mentalità asiatica, rispettandola.

Tertium non datur.

* * * * * * *


H&M’s Troubles in Asia Compound Over ‘Problematic’ Map of Region.

Hennes & Mauritz AB’s woes in Asia deepened after a “problematic” map on its website drew the attention of Chinese authorities, with the retailer’s attempts to resolve the matter then angering consumers in Vietnam.

H&M’s Shanghai unit was summoned by two of the city’s regulators to correct mistakes on the image, and the company said it will carry out the rectification, according to the local arm of the Cyberspace Administration of China on Friday. It didn’t elaborate on the corrections that were ordered, and it’s not immediately clear which map on H&M’s website is in question.

Changes by the Swedish company to its map are infringing on Vietnam’s maritime sovereignty, the Saigon Giai Phong newspaper reported, citing the chairman of one of the country’s consumer rights associations. H&M’s spokespeople in China and Stockholm didn’t immediately respond to requests for comments outside of business hours.

H&M recently became a high-profile example of foreign companies punished for crossing China’s political lines, facing the brunt of the government’s ire against clothing retailers who criticize human rights abuses in the cotton-producing Xinjiang region.

It was called out by the Communist Youth League and the People’s Liberation Army for a statement dating back to September that expressed concern about reports of Uyghurs in forced labor. H&M’s outlets vanished from Apple Maps and Baidu Maps searches, and some stores in smaller cities were closed by landlords.

China claims more than 80% of the South China Sea and backs up its claim with a 1947 map that shows vague dashes — the so-called nine-dash line — looping down to a point about 1,100 miles (1,800 kilometers) south of its Hainan island. Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan claim parts of the same maritime area, and have sparred with China over which claims are valid.

Vietnamese law bars companies from using images that infringe on its sovereignty, which the nine-dash line represents, the Saigon Giai Phong said. H&M opened its first store in Ho Chi Minh City in 2017 and now has 12 outlets across the country, the paper said.

On the internet, Vietnamese consumers criticized H&M’s reported acquiescence to Chinese authorities. Some called for a boycott of H&M’s products, demanded the company apologize to Vietnam and restore changes to the map or close its Vietnam outlets, the Saigon Giai Phong said.

H&M is the latest example of a business getting caught in geopolitical crossfires as countries tussle over issues ranging from sovereignty claims to maritime boundaries.

In 2019, Vietnam ordered cinemas to halt screenings of DreamWorks Animation’s “Abominable” because it showed the nine-dash line on a map. That same year, Vietnam said it will fine Volkswagen AG’s local distributor and an importer for showcasing a car with a navigation app reflecting Chinese territorial claims.

While Vietnam has been the region’s most forceful nation in pushing back against Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea, tensions have been simmering between the Philippines and China as well.

The presence of hundreds of Chinese vessels near a South China Sea reef last month shows Beijing’s intent to occupy more disputed areas, Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said on Sunday.

The Chinese embassy in Manila said the waters where the vessels were spotted were “traditional fishing grounds” and “part of China’s Nansha Islands.” The Philippines had issued a formal diplomatic protest to China over the matter, saying that the ships’ presence raised concerns on overfishing and safety of navigation.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali

Mondo. Lista dei paesi con pil anno su anno maggiore dello zero.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-04-04.

Solo undici paesi presentano un pil anno su anno maggiore oppure eguale allo zero.

Tranne l’Irlanda (-1.5%), nessun altro paese dell’enclave occidentale liberal compare in questa graduatoria.

Tra i paesi asiatici, ai primi posti vediamo la Cina (+6.5%), il Bangladesh (+5.2%, Taiwan (+5.09%), il Vietnam (+4.48%) e l’India (+0.40%).

L’assenza dei grandi paesi dell’Unione Europea e degli Stati Uniti è un dato di per sé evidente: persino Egitto e Nigeria hanno fatto meglio.

Harris-Biden Administration, Frau Ursula von der Leyen ed Angela Merkel dovrebbero studiarsi meglio questa Tabella.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Diplomazia, Geopolitica Asiatica

Myanmar. Occasione di accordo politico per l’Asean.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-03-02.

ASEAN–China Free Trade Area. China and ASEAN in blue 001

Asean si auto definisce come ‘One Vision. One Identity. One Community.’

Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar (Burma), Brunei, Cambodia, Laos sono gli stati membri.

«The ASEAN–China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) is a free-trade area among the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the People’s Republic of China.»

«The free trade agreement reduced tariffs on 7,881 product categories, or 90 percent of imported goods, to zero. This reduction took effect in China and the six original members of ASEAN: Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand …. The remaining four countries …. to follow suit»

* * * * * * *

«The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has traditionally had a strict policy of political non-interference in the internal affairs of member states»

«And the association remained true to that principle despite the events of the past five years in member state Myanmar»

«Part of what enabled ASEAN to function as normal regarding Myanmar through the Rohingya crisis was that most of the refugees fleeing the country ended up in Bangladesh, which is not a member of the association»

«Tens of thousands of Rohingya went south by sea, washing up on the shores of Malaysia, Indonesia and other members of the grouping»

«Where the US and the EU have outright condemned the coup and demanded a full reversal of the situation, Indonesia took a more delicate and much more promising approach»

«It called on the military to hold elections later this year, as it promised it would do during the coup, and proposed that the elections be monitored by ASEAN observers»

«This is a wise move for a number of reasons»

«First, the demand goes no further than holding the new military government to its own word»

«Secondly, it gives the military government of Myanmar a way out that does not involve a political concession of having made an error or having done something wrong …. This saves face and that is something that will carry a lot of weight for the generals …. it may shield military leaders from any legal or constitutional liability for having ordered the coup»

«Lastly, this move brings the entire weight of the trading bloc to apply pressure on the military government to leave power in a way that may well prove to be the most effective means to that end, all while nominally maintaining the principle of “non-interference.”»

«It remains to be seen whether this first foray into this area will bear any fruit, but the effort is certainly a noble one and a very well executed one too»

* * * * * * *

Biden orders sanctions on Myanmar generals as key Aung San Suu Kyi aide detained

White House. Executive Order on Blocking Property with Respect to the Situation in Burma

«the military overthrew the democratically elected civilian government of Burma …. undermining the country’s democratic transition and rule of law, constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States.  I hereby declare a national emergency to deal with that threat»

*

Gli Stati Uniti vedono nei fatti accaduti in Myanmar, che loro denominano con l’esonimo Burba, un pericolo imminente e reale alla loro sicurezza nazionale, così grave da dichiarare “a national emergency”. Quanto accaduto mette in crisi la loro ideologia, che evidentemente non fa presa sulle altre nazioni: quindi, sanzioni, come ai bei tempi nei quali gli Stati Uniti contavano ancora qualcosa nel mondo.

Quanto sia differente la risposta dell’Asean è lampante.

Rispetta la sovranità nazionale, non impone alcunché, propone una soluzione che contemperi tutte le esigenze.

Questo è ciò che comunemente è denominato essere la diplomazia. Ossia l’arte del reale non disgiunto dal buon senso.

 *


ASEAN must become political to deal with Myanmar.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has traditionally had a strict policy of political non-interference in the internal affairs of member states. And the association remained true to that principle despite the events of the past five years in member state Myanmar, where the military carried out “clearing operations” against some 1 million civilians belonging to the Rohingya minority. But this will not remain an option for much longer. And the pivot of the transformation will be Myanmar.

Part of what enabled ASEAN to function as normal regarding Myanmar through the Rohingya crisis was that most of the refugees fleeing the country ended up in Bangladesh, which is not a member of the association. But that has not been universally the case. Tens of thousands of Rohingya went south by sea, washing up on the shores of Malaysia, Indonesia and other members of the grouping. Concerns about what is happening in Myanmar had been raised within ASEAN forums by Malaysia and Indonesia, but these efforts were resisted. Now Indonesia is paving the way for a new approach, prompted above all by the recent coup d’etat carried out by the military in Naypyidaw.

Where the US and the EU have outright condemned the coup and demanded a full reversal of the situation, Indonesia took a more delicate and much more promising approach. It called on the military to hold elections later this year, as it promised it would do during the coup, and proposed that the elections be monitored by ASEAN observers.

This is a wise move for a number of reasons. First, the demand goes no further than holding the new military government to its own word. The motivation the military cited for the coup was “electoral irregularities” in the polls last year and its claim was that all it wanted was a “fair” re-run of the election. The presence of ASEAN observers would do much to guarantee a more fair election than one run entirely by the military itself. As such, the move could even fly under the threshold of “political interference” in the internal affairs of Myanmar, either by Indonesia or by ASEAN

Secondly, it gives the military government of Myanmar a way out that does not involve a political concession of having made an error or having done something wrong. This makes it much more likely that it would allow this to happen, as opposed to the explicit demands coming from the West that it should not be in power. This saves face and that is something that will carry a lot of weight for the generals. But, perhaps even more importantly, it may shield military leaders from any legal or constitutional liability for having ordered the coup in the first place. They would thus be allowed to walk away from the path of direct military government in Naypyidaw in a way that means they would not immediately face prison as soon as they yielded power to a civilian government.

Lastly, this move brings the entire weight of the trading bloc to apply pressure on the military government to leave power in a way that may well prove to be the most effective means to that end, all while nominally maintaining the principle of “non-interference.”

Of course, this will in practice be interference: Everyone knows that elections would overwhelmingly return support for parties opposed to the military and its powerbase, primarily the National League for Democracy (NLD) of Aung San Suu Kyi — especially if the elections are allowed to be overseen by ASEAN observers. So for Indonesia and ASEAN to call for a fair election is in effect for them to call for an NLD government; and so ASEAN will have become politicized and a force for democracy in Southeast Asia. And that’s no bad thing.

In time, the institution will likely come to acknowledge this explicitly and even embrace this new political role. It remains to be seen whether this first foray into this area will bear any fruit, but the effort is certainly a noble one and a very well executed one too.