Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Banche Centrali. Alti tassi oppure alta inflazione. Possono scegliere come fallire.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-01.

Brüghel il Vecchio. La parabola dei ciechi.

«Se i fatti smentiscono la teoria, tanto peggio per i fatti», Hegel.

Fed. Non solo tapering. Il quantitative easing costituisce una bomba ad orologeria.

Canada. Bank of Canada inizia il ‘great exit’. Inizia il tapering.

Fed. Questa allarmante inflazione è proprio quello che avrebbe voluto evitare. – Bloomberg.

Inflazione. Sorella miseria si fa precedere dalla comare inflazione. Adesso anche l’UK.

Stagflazione. Uno dei tanti cigni neri che si aggirano come avvoltoi.

Fed. Che l’inflazione alta sia temporanea è un ‘article of faith’. – Bloomberg.

Usa. Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo +4.2% anno su anno. Fed in tilt.

USA. Crolla a 218k la generazione di nuovi posti di lavoro. Pronta reazione della Fed.

* * * * * * *

«Con il termine tapering si fa riferimento al processo di rallentamento del ritmo di acquisti mensile dei titoli di Stato (noto come Quantitative easing) da parte di una banca centrale. La parola Tapering è stata utilizzata per la prima volta nel 2013 dall’allora numero uno della Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, quando decise di alleggerire la fase di QE. Il termine Tapering non deve essere confuso con il “Tightening”, parola che invece sta a indicare un restringimento delle condizioni di politica monetaria, solitamente attraverso un aumento graduale dei tassi di interesse» [Sole24Ore]

«central bank asset purchases in the United States, Japan, the euro zone and Britain will slide to about $3.4 trillion this year from almost $9 trillion in 2020»

«The Fed plans to keep borrowing costs near 0% and maintain monthly asset purchases worth $120 billion until it sees “substantial further progress” towards full employment and its 2% flexible inflation target»

* * *

«Con alleggerimento o allentamento quantitativo, o anche facilitazione quantitativa, sovente con la locuzione inglese quantitative easing (o QE), si designa una delle modalità con cui avviene la creazione di moneta a debito da parte di una banca centrale e la sua iniezione, con operazioni di mercato aperto, nel sistema finanziario ed economico. ….

Il quantitative easing è uno strumento in grado di assicurare la permanenza dell’inflazione al di sopra di una certo valore-obiettivo. Il rischio di questa politica monetaria è il fatto che si riveli più efficace del previsto contro la deflazione nel lungo termine, portando ad un eccesso di inflazione a causa dell’aumento dell’offerta di moneta ….»

* * * * * * *

«Slowly but surely, central banks are signaling policy shifts»

«New Zealand now sees higher rates in second half of 2022»

«Canada already signaled a shift»

«Fed also hints at exit talk»

«Central banks are beginning to tip toe away from their emergency monetary settings, with South Korea following in the footsteps of New Zealand and Canada to flag a potential interest-rate increase»

«As vaccines roll-outs continue and economies reopen, traders have been slowly dialing up expectations on rate hikes or a slowing of asset purchases elsewhere too»

«The Bank of Korea became the latest on Thursday to signal a turn when Governor Lee Ju-yeol said policy makers are preparing for an “orderly” exit from its record-low interest rate at some point as the economy recovers»

«The shift in stance came a day after New Zealand’s»

«We can’t rule out that the tail may wag the dog, influencing global market expectations of whether other central banks may also take a more hawkish turn»

«Financial markets have already brought forward pricing of the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike by almost a year since early February»

«Over the same period, market expectations from the Bank of England have switched from rate cuts by late 2022 to a rate increase»

«With major central banks embroiled in bond buying and other easing programs which traditionally get wound down first, most rate hikes remain some way off»

«The BOE has slowed bond-buying and signaled that it’s on course to end that support later this year»

«Norway is on track to start a hiking cycle, and Iceland has already begun»

«The Bank of Canada announced last month a reduction in debt purchases as it forecast a faster economic recovery that may pave the way for rate increases next year»

«The shift in monetary policy is starting»

«Hungary’s central bank said this week it was ready to deliver monetary tightening, and Russia, Turkey and Brazil have already hiked»

«The People’s Bank of China is holding the line with relatively disciplined stimulus»

«They will suffer from a double whammy as the Fed starts moving towards tapering»

* * * * * * *

Nuova Zelanda, Canada, South Korea, Regno Unito, Ungheria, Russia, Turkia, e Brasile hanno già iniziato il tapering oppure lo hanno annunciato come imminente. Ma il tapering si associa ad un aumento dei tassi di interesse.

Tuttavia, si faccia attenzione, il problema non è soltanto finanziario, di bilanciamento tra tassi di interesse ed inflazione.

Di interesse anche maggiore del pil è il numero dei nuovi posti di lavoro generati e la spesa per i consumi, che sono solo parzialmente influenzati dalle manovre finanziarie. Molto gioca la fiducia.

A parte il fatto che la Fed h sulle spalle 87 trilioni di debito totale degli Stati Uniti. Un grande fardello.

Nei fatti, prendiamo atto di questo trend che inizia a delinarsi.

*


Slowly But Surely, Central Banks Are Signaling Policy Shifts.

– New Zealand now sees higher rates in second half of 2022

– Canada already signaled a shift, Fed also hints at exit talk

*

Central banks are beginning to tip toe away from their emergency monetary settings, with South Korea following in the footsteps of New Zealand and Canada to flag a potential interest-rate increase.

As vaccines roll-outs continue and economies reopen, traders have been slowly dialing up expectations on rate hikes or a slowing of asset purchases elsewhere too. Markets are seizing on the tightening narrative, with bond yields and currencies fluctuating as investors recalibrate their bets.

The Bank of Korea became the latest on Thursday to signal a turn when Governor Lee Ju-yeol said policy makers are preparing for an “orderly” exit from its record-low interest rate at some point as the economy recovers. The shift in stance came a day after New Zealand’s.

New Zealand’s outlook was much more hawkish than expected and may yet signal a global shift, according to Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ Bank New Zealand in Auckland.

“We can’t rule out that the tail may wag the dog, influencing global market expectations of whether other central banks may also take a more hawkish turn,” she said.

Financial markets have already brought forward pricing of the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike by almost a year since early February. Over the same period, market expectations from the Bank of England have switched from rate cuts by late 2022 to a rate increase, while investors have almost abandoned bets on further European Central Bank reductions to instead price in a 10 basis-point upward move by the end of 2023.

                         Taper Talks

With major central banks embroiled in bond buying and other easing programs which traditionally get wound down first, most rate hikes remain some way off. But talk of a taper in asset purchases is catching on.

Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida told Yahoo! Finance in an interview Tuesday that there may be a point in upcoming policy meetings where officials can discuss scaling back purchases.

Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles said on Wednesday that it will be important for the central bank to begin discussing in coming months plans to reduce its massive bond purchases if the economy continues to power ahead.

The BOE has slowed bond-buying and signaled that it’s on course to end that support later this year. Australia’s central bank has set July as a deadline for deciding on whether to extend purchases.

Norway is on track to start a hiking cycle, and Iceland has already begun. The Bank of Canada announced last month a reduction in debt purchases as it forecast a faster economic recovery that may pave the way for rate increases next year.

                         Turning Point

“The shift in monetary policy is starting,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, Hong Kong based chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, who used to work for the ECB and International Monetary Fund.

Detailing its new outlook, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday published forecasts for its benchmark rate — for the first time in more than a year — that show the rate beginning to rise in mid-2022.

To be sure, this shift is still conditional.

RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said the bank’s outlook is predicated on the economy recovery continuing as vaccines roll out and the pandemic is contained. In a similar vein, BOK’s Lee said the board unanimously agreed to hold rates at a record low on Thursday as pandemic uncertainties persist.

The Fed’s Clarida also qualified his remarks around employment data and how inflation pressures play out, which he expects to be transitory.

It’s also the case that not every central bank is signaling a policy move, not least in the euro zone, where ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta said on Wednesday that he hasn’t seen a shift in the economic outlook to justify a reduction in bond purchases.

In emerging markets, the shift is splintering. Hungary’s central bank said this week it was ready to deliver monetary tightening, and Russia, Turkey and Brazil have already hiked. The People’s Bank of China is holding the line with relatively disciplined stimulus, while others continue to support growth as the virus continues to spread.

“There is growth divergence due to a much slower vaccination process in the emerging world and renewed waves,” said Garcia-Herrero. “They will suffer from a double whammy as the Fed starts moving towards tapering.”

Pubblicato in: Armamenti

Turkia. Vende alla Polonia 24 droni anticarro Bayraktar TB2.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-27.

2021-05-25__ Turkia TB2 001

«The Bayraktar TB2 is a Turkish medium altitude long endurance (MALE) unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) capable of remotely controlled or autonomous flight operations. It is manufactured by Turkey′s Baykar company primarily for the Turkish Armed Forces. The aircraft is monitored and controlled by an aircrew in the Ground Control Station, including weapons employment, via Türksat satellite. Bayraktar means “ensign” or “standard-bearer” in Turkish. The development of the UAV has been largely credited to Selçuk Bayraktar, a former MIT graduate student.

The aircraft previously relied on imported and regulated components and technologies such as the engines (manufactured by Rotax in Austria) and optoelectronics (FLIR sensors imported from Wescam in Canada or Hensoldt from Germany). Engines exports were halted when Bombardier, owner of Rotax, became aware of the military use of their recreational aircraft engines. ….

General Characteristics

    Crew: 0 onboard, 3 per one ground control station

    Length: 6.5 m (21 ft)

    Wing Span: 12 m (39 ft)

    Max Take Off Weight: 650 kg (1,430 lb)

    Payload: 150 kg (330 lb)

    Powerplant: 1 x 100 Hp Internal Combustion Engine with Injection

    Fuel Capacity: 300 litres (79 US gal)

    Fuel Type: Gasoline

Performance

    Maximum Speed: 120 knots (220 km/h)

    Cruise Speed: 70 knots (130 km/h)

    Range: 150 km (81 nmi)[27]

    Communication Range: Line-of-sight propagation

    Service Ceiling: 27,000 feet (8,200 m)

    Operational altitude: 18,000 feet (5,500 m)

    Endurance: 27 hours

Armaments

The Smart Micro Munition (MAM-L) and behind it MAM-C high explosive variant

Hardpoints: 4 hardpoints for laser guided smart munition, with provisions to carry combinations of :

    L-UMTAS (Long Range Anti tank Missile System) 

    MAM: MAM-C and MAM-L precision-guided munitions

    Roketsan Cirit (70 mm Missile System)

    TUBITAK-SAGE Bozok Laser Guided Rockets

    TUBITAK-SAGE TOGAN[132] Air-to-surface launched 81 mm mortar munition.» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

«Poland will buy 24 armed drones from Turkey, the Polish defence minister said on Saturday, becoming the first NATO member to buy Turkish-made unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)»

«The Bayraktar TB2 drones, the first of which are due to be delivered next year, will be armed with anti-tank projectiles. Poland will also buy a logistics and training package»

«Blaszczak told state radio the Bayraktar TB2 drones “have proven themselves in wars”»

«The contract, which will be concluded without a procurement process, will be signed next week during a visit by Polish President Andrzej Duda to Turkey»

«Authorities in fellow NATO member Turkey say the country has become the world’s fourth-largest drone producer since President Tayyip Erdogan increased domestic production to reduce reliance on Western arms»

* * * * * * *

L’idea di una Turkia misera e sottosviluppata persiste ad alimentare l’immaginario collettivo europeo.

Ma la realtà dei fatti indica come essa sia in grado di produrre armamenti altamente sofisticati e che hanno provato la loro efficacia sul campo di battaglia.

«the country has become the world’s fourth-largest drone producer»

Quindi, si colloca subito dietro Russia, Cina e Stati Uniti, le tre grandi superpotenze mondiali.

*


Poland to become first NATO country to buy Turkish drones.

Poland will buy 24 armed drones from Turkey, the Polish defence minister said on Saturday, becoming the first NATO member to buy Turkish-made unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

The Bayraktar TB2 drones, the first of which are due to be delivered next year, will be armed with anti-tank projectiles. Poland will also buy a logistics and training package, said Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak.

Blaszczak told state radio the Bayraktar TB2 drones “have proven themselves in wars” and added that the UAVs would be serviced by a military company, without giving further details.

The contract, which will be concluded without a procurement process, will be signed next week during a visit by Polish President Andrzej Duda to Turkey.

Authorities in fellow NATO member Turkey say the country has become the world’s fourth-largest drone producer since President Tayyip Erdogan increased domestic production to reduce reliance on Western arms.

Turkish defence technology company Baykar has sold its Bayraktar TB2 armed drone to Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Qatar and Libya. Erdogan said in March that Saudi Arabia was also interested in buying Turkish drones. read more

Canada scrapped export permits for drone technology to Turkey in April, after concluding that the equipment was used by Azeri forces fighting Armenia in the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. The parts under embargo included camera systems for Baykar armed drones.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Mondo. Pil 2021Q1. Primi dati provvisori, ma molto chiari. Purtroppo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-04-25.

2021-04-22_ Pil Mondo 001

Sono stati resi disponibili i primi dati provvisori relativi al pil del primo trimestre 2021, calcolati anno su anno oppure annualizzati. Essendo valori provvisori, dovrebbero essere letti con molto buon senso.

Considerando tutti gli stati mondiali ordinati per valori decrescenti, solo due stati europei compaiono nei primi posti: la Turkia e l’Albania.

Persino la Guyana, il Lesotho e l’Etiopia hanno valori migliori di quelli europei.

La Tabella relativa al continente europeo è squalida.

Spain, Greece, Montenegro, United Kingdom, Croatia, Italy, Malta, Portugal,  Austria, Belgium, Iceland, Euro Area, France, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Germany, Hungary, Moldova, Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, Russia, Switzerland, Denmark, Latvia, Finland, Romania, Estonia presentano tutti valori negativi di variazione del pil anno su anno.

Questi dati dovrebbero dare da pensare agli attuali governanti, sia dei singoli stati sia dell’Unione Europea.

2021-04-22_ Pil Mondo 002

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Materie Prime

Mondo. Dicembre 2020. Riserve Auree Ufficiali totali 31,415.53 tonnellate.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-04-11.

2021-04-06__ Gold 001

A tutto il dicembre 2020 le Riserve Auree Ufficiali ammontavano a 31,415.53 tonnellate.

La loro distribuzione nei forzieri delle banche centrali è fortemente asimmetrica.

Stati Uniti 8,133 ton (25.89%), Germania 3,362 (10.70%), Italia 2,452 (7.81%), Francia 2,436 (7.75%), Russia 2,299 (7.32%), Cina 1,948 (6.20%), Svizzera 1,040 (3.31%), Giappone 765 (2.44%), India 677 (2.15%), Paesi Bassi 612 (1.95%), Turkia 544 (1.73%), Eurozona 505 (1.61%).

L’insieme di questi paesi dispone quindi di 24,773 tonnellate di oro, ossia del 78.86% del totale mondiale.

Sono riserve per lo più accumulate nei tempi delle vacche grasse.

Questi sono i dati ufficiali.

Si dovrebbe però tenere presente come in alcune nazioni siano in essere delle leggi che prevedono la possibilità che, sotto particolari evenienze, lo stato possa reclamare l’oro posseduto dai Cittadini. La reale disponibilità aurea delle famiglie, per lo più sotto forma di monili, è virtualmente impossibile da stimarsi con cura. Per la Cina e per l’India si potrebbe avanzare con grande prudenza una stima pari a circa tre volte la quota detenuta dalla banca centrale.

Se queste stime, calcolate sulla base dell’oro venduto per gioielleria negli ultimi decenni, rappresentassero effettivamente la realtà, le nazioni dotatesi di tali leggi deterrebbero scorte auree di portata quasi eguale a quelle degli Stati Uniti.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. Febbraio 21. Produzione Industriale -6.4% anno su anno. – Destatis.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-04-11.

Ghigno 004

In sintesi.

– Production in industry -6.4% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

*

Solo per comparazione, la Produzione Industriale cinese nello stesso periodo è aumentata del +35.1%, quella della Malaysia del +1.5%, Singapore +16.4%, Polonia +2.7%, Turkia +11.4%.

*


Destatis. Production in February 2021: -1.6% on the previous month. Production still 6% below pre-crisis level.

Pressrelease #176 from 9 April 2021

Production in industry
February 2021 (provisional):
-1.6% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-6.4% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

January 2021 (revised):
-2.0% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-4.0% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

WIESBADEN – In February 2021, production in industry was down by 1.6% on the previous month on a price, seasonally and calendar adjusted basis according to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis).

Compared with February 2020, which was the month before restrictions were imposed due to the corona pandemic in Germany, real production decreased by a calendar adjusted 6.4% in February 2021.

In February 2021, production in industry excluding energy and construction was down by 1.8%. Within industry, the production of capital goods showed a decrease of 3.2% and the production of intermediate goods of 1.0%. The production of consumer goods increased by 0.2%. Outside industry, energy production was down by 1.0% in February 2021 and the production in construction decreased by 1.3%.

In January 2021, the corrected figure on the production in industry showed a decrease of 2.0% (provisional: -2.5%) from December 2020.

The rates of change refer to the production index for industry (2015 = 100). Seasonal and calendar adjustment was made using the X-13 JDemetra+ method.

Basic data and long time series on the production index in industry are also available in the table “Index of production in manufacturing” (42153-0001) in the GENESIS-Online database

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo

Turkia. Si ritira dalla Convenzione di Istanbul del 2011.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-03-25.

Istanbul 004

«La Turchia si è ritirata dalla Convenzione di Istanbul»

«Sviluppato nel 2011 dal Consiglio d’Europa per tutelare i diritti delle donne, il trattato venne firmato per la Turchia dal presidente Recep Tayyip Erdogan»

«Il governo turco è “sinceramente” impegnato nel portare la reputazione e la dignità delle donne “al livello che meritano”, ma “non è necessario cercare rimedi esterni o imitare gli altri per questo obiettivo fondamentale»

*

«la leader di ‘Noi Fermeremo il Femminicidio’, Fidan Ataselim, ha chiamato alla protesta su Twitter, sottolineando che il governo sta mettendo in pericolo la vita di milioni di donne»

«Secondo l’organizzazione, almeno 300 sono state le vittime di femminicidio in Turchia solo l’anno scorso»

«Il provvedimento del governo turco ha invece sollevato aspre critiche da parte del Chp, il principale partito di opposizione»

* * * * * * *

La Turkia a fine 2020 aveva 84.807 milioni di abitanti: ma 300/84.8007 milioni rappresentano lo 0.0000354% della popolazione.

Questa apparirebbe essere una percentuale insignificante, che certo non “sta mettendo in pericolo la vita di milioni di donne” né sembrerebbe essere “un problema diffuso”.

La Turkia ha un solido e sentito retaggio religioso, storico, culturale e sociale: sufficit.

Gran brutto segno quando la politica si inventa fatti e cifre, e per di più del tutto inverosimili.

*


Violenza su donne, Turchia si ritira da convenzione

La Turchia si è ritirata dalla Convenzione di Istanbul, che pone al centro la prevenzione e la lotta contro la violenza nei confronti delle donne e la violenza domestica. La decisione è stata pubblicata stamane sulla gazzetta ufficiale.

Sviluppato nel 2011 dal Consiglio d’Europa per tutelare i diritti delle donne, il trattato venne firmato per la Turchia dal presidente Recep Tayyip Erdogan, che allora era primo ministro. Successivamente venne ratificato dal Parlamento di Ankara. Ma secondo la piattaforma turca ‘Noi Fermeremo il Femminicidio’, che si batte contro tutti i tipi di violenze contro le donne, non è mai stato applicato.

La violenza contro le donne è un problema diffuso in Turchia. In seguito alla decisione di ritirarsi dalla convenzione, la leader di ‘Noi Fermeremo il Femminicidio’, Fidan Ataselim, ha chiamato alla protesta su Twitter, sottolineando che il governo sta mettendo in pericolo la vita di milioni di donne. Secondo l’organizzazione, almeno 300 sono state le vittime di femminicidio in Turchia solo l’anno scorso.

Il governo turco è “sinceramente” impegnato nel portare la reputazione e la dignità delle donne “al livello che meritano”, ma “non è necessario cercare rimedi esterni o imitare gli altri per questo obiettivo fondamentale. La soluzione invece è nelle nostre tradizioni e costumi, in noi stessi”, ha dichiarato il vice presidente turco, Fuat Oktay.

Il ministro della Famiglia, del Lavoro e dei Servizi sociali, Zehra Zumrut Selcuk, ha affermato in un tweet che la Costituzione è la “garanzia dei diritti delle donne”, sostenendo che “la violenza contro le donne è un crimine contro l’umanità e combattere questo crimine è una questione di diritti umani. Ciò che conta davvero sono i principi”.

Il provvedimento del governo turco ha invece sollevato aspre critiche da parte del Chp, il principale partito di opposizione. Abbandonare il trattato significa considerare “le donne cittadine di seconda classe e permettere che vengano uccise”, ha dichiarato Gokce Gokcen, il numero due del partito.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Eurostat. Pil -6.6% nella eurozona, -6.2% nella Eu, anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-03-12.

2021-03-10__ Eurostat pil annuale 001

«For the year 2020 as a whole, GDP fell by 6.6% in the euro area and by 6.2% in the EU»

«Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 4.9% in the euro area and by 4.6% in the EU in the fourth quarter of 2020»

«Romania (+4.8%) and Malta (+3.8%) recorded the sharpest increases of GDP compared to the previous quarter, followed by Croatia and Greece (both +2.7%)»

* * * * * *

Si noti come le banche dati al momento riportino i valori di pil ottenuti dal rapporto del valore attuale su quello dello stesso trimestre dell’anno predente, pur essendo disponibile, e riportato, il valore anno su anno.

La Cina ha registrato un +6.5%, la Turkia un +5.9%, il Giappone un +11.7%.

*


Eurostat. GDP down by 0.7% and employment up by 0.3% in the euro area.

GDP growth in the euro area and EU

In the fourth quarter of 2020, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 0.7% in the euro area and by 0.5% in the EU compared with the previous quarter, according to an estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. These declines follow a strong rebound in the third quarter of 2020 (+12.5% in the euro area and +11.6% in the EU) and the sharpest decreases since the time series started in 1995 observed in the second quarter of 2020 (-11.6% in the euro area and -11.2% in the EU).

For the year 2020 as a whole, GDP fell by 6.6% in the euro area and by 6.2% in the EU, after +1.3% and +1.6% respectively in 2019.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 4.9% in the euro area and by 4.6% in the EU in the fourth quarter of 2020, after -4.2% and -4.1% respectively in the previous quarter.

During the fourth quarter of 2020, GDP in the United States increased by 1.0% compared with the previous quarter (after +7.5% in the third quarter of 2020). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP decreased by 2.4% (after -2.8% in the previous quarter).

GDP growth by Member State

Romania (+4.8%) and Malta (+3.8%) recorded the sharpest increases of GDP compared to the previous quarter, followed by Croatia and Greece (both +2.7%). The strongest declines were observed in Ireland (-5.1%) and Austria (-2.7%), followed by Italy (-1.9%) and France (-1.4%).

GDP components and contributions to growth

During the fourth quarter of 2020, household final consumption expenditure decreased by 3.0% in the euro area and by 2.8% in the EU (after +14.1% in the euro area and +13.3% in the EU in the previous quarter). Gross fixed capital formation increased by 1.6% in the euro area and by 1.3% in the EU (after +13.9% and +12.1% respectively). Exports increased by 3.5% in the euro area and by 3.7% the EU (after +16.7% and +17.1%). Imports increased by 4.1% in the euro area and by 4.0% in the EU (after +11.8% and +12.6%).

Household final consumption expenditure had negative contribution to GDP growth in both the euro area and the EU (-1.6 and -1.5 percentage points – pp, respectively) while the contributions from gross fixed capital formation (+0.3 in both zones) and changes in inventories (+0.6% in both zones) were positive. The contribution from the external balance was slightly negative for the euro area and neutral for the EU, while the contributions from government final expenditure were slightly positive in both zones.

GDP levels in the euro area and EU

Based on seasonally adjusted figures, GDP volumes were 4.9% and 4.6% below their highest level of the fourth quarter 2019 for the euro area and EU, which is slightly above the levels of the fourth quarter 2016 for the euro area and the first quarter 2017 for the EU. For the United States, GDP was 2.4% below the level of the fourth quarter 2019, which is the lowest level since the third quarter 2018.

Employment growth in the euro area and EU

The number of employed persons increased by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU in the fourth quarter of 2020, compared with the previous quarter. In the third quarter of 2020, employment had increased by 1.0% in the euro area and by 0.9% in the EU.

For the year 2020 as a whole, employment decreased by 1.6% in the euro area and 1.5% in the EU, after +1.2% and +1.0% respectively in 2019.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment decreased by 1.9% in the euro area and by 1.6% in the EU in the fourth quarter of 2020, after -2.1% and -2.0% in the third quarter of 2020.

Hours worked decreased by 1.6% in the euro area and by 1.4% in the EU in the fourth quarter of 2020, compared with the previous quarter. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year the declines were 5.6% in the euro area and 4.6% in the EU respectively (see annex table on employment in hours worked).

These data provide a picture of labour input consistent with the output and income measure of national accounts.

Employment growth in Member States

In the fourth quarter of 2020, Portugal, Estonia (both +1.9%) and Spain (+1.2%) recorded the highest growth of employment in persons compared with the previous quarter. The largest decreases were observed in Czechia, Croatia, Latvia and Malta (all -0.5%).

Employment levels in the euro area and EU

Based on seasonally adjusted figures, Eurostat estimates that in the fourth quarter of 2020, 206 million people were employed in the EU, of which 157.9 million were in the euro area.

In relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, employment in persons was 3.1 million in the euro area and 3.5 million in the EU below the level of the fourth quarter of 2019.

Employment levels in the euro area and EU

Based on seasonally adjusted figures, Eurostat estimates that in the fourth quarter of 2020, 206 million people were employed in the EU, of which 157.9 million were in the euro area.

In relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, employment in persons was 3.1 million in the euro area and 3.5 million in the EU below the level of the fourth quarter of 2019.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. Gennaio. Produzione Industriale -3.9% anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-03-11.

Destatis__001

In sintesi.

-2.5% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-3.9% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

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Solo per comparazione.

Eurozona -0.8%, anno su anno, Austria -5.1%, Italia -2.0%, Spagna -2.2%,

Polonia +0.9%, Repubblica Ceka +0.5%, Slovakia +6.8%, Svezia +5.9%.

Cina +7.3%, South Korea +7.5%, India +1.0%, Malaysia +1.7%, Singapore +8.6%, Formosa +18.81%, Turkia +9.0%.

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Destatis. Production in January 2021: -2.5% on the previous month. Production still 4% below pre-crisis level.

Production in industry.
January 2021 (provisional):
-2.5% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-3.9% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)
December 2020 (revised):
+1.9% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-1.0% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

WIESBADEN – In January 2021, production in industry was down by 2.5% on the previous month on a price, seasonally and calendar adjusted basis according to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). Compared with January 2020, the decrease in calendar adjusted production in industry amounted to 3.9%.

Compared with February 2020, the month before restrictions were imposed due to the coronavirus pandemic in Germany, production in January 2021 was 4.2% lower in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms.

In January 2021, production in industry excluding energy and construction was down by 0.5%. Within industry, the production of capital goods showed a decrease of 0.8% and the production of consumer goods of 3.0%. The production of intermediate goods increased by 0.7%. Outside industry, energy production was up by 0.6% in January 2021. Production in construction declined by 12.2% against the background of the strong increase recorded in December 2020 (revised value: +5.4%) and the end of the value added tax reduction.

In December 2020, the corrected figure on the production in industry showed an increase of 1.9% (provisional: 0.0%) on November 2020.

The rates of change refer to the production index for industry (2015 = 100). Seasonal and calendar adjustment was made using the X-13 JDemetra+ method.

Basic data and long time series on the production index in industry are also available through the table “Index of production in manufacturing” (42153-0001) in the GENESIS-Online database.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. 2020. Produzione Industriale -10.8% anno 2020 su anno 2019.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-02-24.

Destatis__001

Alla fine, finalmente si iniziano a pubblicare i macrodati economici riportati anno su anno precedente.

Destatis ci informa

«that production in industry excluding energy and construction was down by 10.8% in price and calendar adjusted terms in 2020 compared with 2019»

Solo per comparazione, Ungheria +5.8%, Slovacchia +6.8%, Brasile +8.2%, Cina +7.3%, Singapore +14.3%, Turkia +9.0%.

Il problema non è il coronavirus, bensì il governo.

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Destatis. Industrial production down by more than 10% in 2020. Automotive industry and mechanical engineering especially affected.

Press release No. 076 of 22 February 2021

WIESBADEN – Production in the German industry declined by slightly more than one tenth in 2020 year on year. Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that production in industry excluding energy and construction was down by 10.8% in price and calendar adjusted terms in 2020 compared with 2019. In the course of the year, industrial production saw a significant year-on-year decline during the first phase of restrictions imposed due to the corona crisis in April and May 2020 (-29.7% and -23.4%, respectively). In December 2020, however, industrial production was only 1.5% lower than in the same month a year earlier. The turnover of mining and manufacturing enterprises in 2020 was down by 10.1% on a price and calendar adjusted basis compared with the previous year. While domestic turnover declined by 8.3%, non-domestic turnover decreased by 11.9%.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Africa, Russia

Macron accusa Russia e Turchia di voler scalzare la Francia dall’Africa Centrale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-11-22.

Africa Centrale 013

«President says Turkey has distorted his words on radical Islam»

«Russia and Turkey are fueling anti-French feeling in Africa by playing on post-colonial resentment»

«Macron said anti-French sentiment in Africa results partly from decades of France maintaining a “very institutional relationship” with Africa through heads of state and companies, but also a strategy by some African leaders and particularly foreign powers such as Russia and Turkey»

«We must not be naive on this topic: many of those who comment, who make videos, who are present in French-speaking media are paid by Russia or Turkey»

«France is one of the biggest foreign investors in Africa, with $53 billion in 2018, according to data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development»

«Macron said he regrets that his words on radical Islam have been distorted, largely by the Muslim Brotherhood but also by Turkey, with a capacity to influence widespread public opinion, also in sub-Saharan Africa»

«“With terrorists, we don’t talk,” Macron said. “We fight.”»

«One doesn’t change a country, institutions and power structures in a few months»

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Russia e Turkia hanno da tempo attuato una politica di scalzamento della Francia dall’Africa, specialmente da quella centrale e sub-sahariana.

In questo Mr Macron dice il vero.

Ma il problema sembrerebbe essere un altro.

Domandiamoci: per quanto tempo ancora la Francia potrà mantenere il controllo di quello scacchiere geopolitico?

A parere di molti i suoi giorni sarebbero contati.

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Macron Says Russia, Turkey Fueling Anti-French Sentiment in Africa.

– President says Turkey has distorted his words on radical Islam

– Macron to do everything to help success of Algeria transition

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Russia and Turkey are fueling anti-French feeling in Africa by playing on post-colonial resentment, French President Emmanuel Macron said in an interview with Jeune Afrique, the most widely read pan-African magazine.

Macron said anti-French sentiment in Africa results partly from decades of France maintaining a “very institutional relationship” with Africa through heads of state and companies, but also a strategy by some African leaders and particularly foreign powers such as Russia and Turkey.

“We must not be naive on this topic: many of those who comment, who make videos, who are present in French-speaking media are paid by Russia or Turkey,” Macron said in the interview published on Friday.

France is one of the biggest foreign investors in Africa, with $53 billion in 2018, according to data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. The country has deployed more than 5,000 troops in the Sahel region to combat Islamist groups there as part of Operation Barkhane.

Macron said he regrets that his words on radical Islam have been distorted, largely by the Muslim Brotherhood but also by Turkey, with a capacity to influence widespread public opinion, also in sub-Saharan Africa. The president said he’s attacking Islamist terrorism, not Islam, adding that 80% of victims are Muslims.

The French president said he’ll have decisions to make about Barkhane in the coming months and that he needs “a clear reiteration” from partner countries in the Sahel that they want France by their side.

Fighting Terrorists

Regarding possible peace talks with Islamist groups in Mali, Macron said the Algiers peace agreement provides a road-map for talks with political groups and those seeking autonomy. He said that doesn’t mean there should be discussions with terrorist groups.

“With terrorists, we don’t talk,” Macron said. “We fight.”

The French president said he’ll do “everything I can” to ensure a successful transition period for Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Algeria’s new president. He said the north African country is still facing a revolutionary movement, while there is also a demand for stability particularly in more rural regions.

“One doesn’t change a country, institutions and power structures in a few months,” Macron said. “There are also things that are not in line with our standards and that we’d like to see evolve.”

After visits to Angola and South Africa were delayed due to Covid-19, Macron said he hopes they can go ahead in the coming weeks, before a trip to Rwanda in 2021.