Mr Deng Xiaoping aveva dato chiarissime direttive ed ordini di priorità.
– Prima costruire un solido sistema produttivo che alimenti l’export.
– Poi, allestire delle forze armate in grado di garantire almeno i confini della nazione.
– Indi allacciare a livello mondiale rapporti paritetici bilaterali volti alla costruzione e controllo delle infrastrutture.
– Solo alla fine, con quel che avanzasse, generare un welfare.
Questo indirizzo strategico è semplicemente l’opposto della Weltanschauung occidentale ed è per questo motivo che l’Occidente inizia solo ora a prenderne atto.
«US pre-eminence in the Pacific is no more»
«For a long time experts have been speaking about China’s rapid military modernisation referring to it as “a rising power”. …. But this analysis may be out of date. China is not so much a rising power; it has risen; and in many ways it now challenges the US across a number of military domains.»
«US defence strategy in the Indo-Pacific region “is in the throes of an unprecedented crisis” and that Washington might struggle to defend its allies against China.»
«America no longer enjoys military primacy in the Indo-Pacific»
«The report points to Beijing’s extraordinary arsenal of missiles that threaten the key bases of the US and its allies. These installations, it asserts, “could be rendered useless by precision strikes in the opening hours of a conflict”»
«China lacks the “proselytising zeal” – the sense of over-seas mission, that over the twentieth century saw the US strive for global dominance.»
«China is already a superpower to rival the US»
«Dubbed in military-speak, an “anti-access and area denial” approach, China has single-mindedly focused on a range of sensors and weapons systems that it hopes will compel US forces to operate as far away from its own shores as possible»
«China’s goal is in a time of crisis is to deny the US access to the area within the “first island chain” (the South China Sea bounded by a line running from the bottom of Japan, encompassing Taiwan, and passing to the west of the Philippines)»
«President Xi Jinping has decided not just to stand up to President Trump in the ongoing trade war but to take a much more assertive position, whether it be towards the pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong or to China’s long-standing claims over Taiwan»
* * * * * * *
La relazione dell’US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney in Australia ad una prima lettura sembrerebbe essere impietoso: poi, quando la materia sia sedimentata, appare financo troppo blando.
Se poi si cercasse di integrare queste informazioni con le altre disponibili, il quadro che ne emergerebbe sarebbe quello di un netto ridimensionamento dell’influenza militare americana.
Dal punto di vista strategico la Cina può contare su solidissimi alleati. Se si considerasse il tasso di fertilità, il Giappone ha 1.42, la Kore del Sud 1.27, Taiwan 1.13 ed Hong Kong 1.2: una generazioni e questi paesi saranno spopolati, e la Cina potrà occuparli serenamente.
For a long time experts have been speaking about China’s rapid military modernisation referring to it as “a rising power”.
But this analysis may be out of date. China is not so much a rising power; it has risen; and in many ways it now challenges the US across a number of military domains.
This is the conclusion of a new report from the US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney in Australia.
It warns that US defence strategy in the Indo-Pacific region “is in the throes of an unprecedented crisis” and that Washington might struggle to defend its allies against China.
“America no longer enjoys military primacy in the Indo-Pacific”, it notes, “and its capacity to uphold a favourable balance of power is increasingly uncertain.”
The report points to Beijing’s extraordinary arsenal of missiles that threaten the key bases of the US and its allies. These installations, it asserts, “could be rendered useless by precision strikes in the opening hours of a conflict”.
China is not a global superpower like the United States. Indeed it is doubtful if its military ambitions extend that far (though this too may be changing as it slowly develops a network of ports and bases abroad).
For now its global reach depends much more on the power of its economy. China lacks the “proselytising zeal” – the sense of over-seas mission, that over the twentieth century saw the US strive for global dominance.
It also has nothing like the soft-power pull of the United States – no equivalent to blue jeans, Hollywood or burgers – to encourage people to share its values.
Indeed according to many indices Washington’s raw military punch still greatly out-weighs that of Beijing. Washington’s nuclear arsenal (and indeed Moscow’s) is significantly larger than that available to Beijing.
The US still retains a technological edge in key areas like intelligence collection; ballistic missile defence; and the latest generation warplanes. The US can also rely upon a deeply entrenched network of alliances both in Asia and through Nato in Europe.
China has nothing like this kind of alliance system. But it is fast eroding Washington’s technical edge. And in any case what matters to China is Asia and what it sees in expansive terms as its own back-yard. Two key factors – focus and proximity – mean that in Asia, China is already a superpower to rival the US.
China has studied US capabilities and warfighting and has come up with an effective strategy to mitigate the traditional sources of US military power, not least the US Navy’s powerful carrier battle groups, the central element of Washington’s ability to project military force.
Dubbed in military-speak, an “anti-access and area denial” approach, China has single-mindedly focused on a range of sensors and weapons systems that it hopes will compel US forces to operate as far away from its own shores as possible.
At the outset this was inherently a defensive posture. But increasingly analysts see China’s capabilities as enabling it to seize the initiative, confident that it can deter and cope with any likely US response.
“Chinese counter-intervention systems,” the Australian study notes, “have undermined America’s ability to project power into the Indo-pacific, raising the risk that China could use limited force to achieve a fait accompli victory before America can respond, challenging US security guarantees in the process.”
China’s goal is in a time of crisis is to deny the US access to the area within the “first island chain” (the South China Sea bounded by a line running from the bottom of Japan, encompassing Taiwan, and passing to the west of the Philippines).
But it also seeks to restrict access to the outer “second island chain” with weapons that can reach as far as the US bases on Guam. This overall strategy can be bolstered by Chinese land-based aircraft and missiles.
Of course, it is not as if the Pentagon is unaware of the China challenge. After decades of counter-insurgency warfare the US military is being re-structured and re-equipped for renewed big-power competition. In the Cold War the focus was the Soviet Union. Today it is largely China.
However the Sydney University report questions whether Washington is sufficiently focused on the task in hand. It says that “an outdated superpower mindset in the (US) foreign policy establishment is likely to limit Washington’s ability to scale back other global commitments or to make the strategic trade-offs required to succeed in the Indo-Pacific.”
Money is going into new weaponry and research. But the task is huge.
“America has an atrophying force that is not sufficiently ready, equipped or postured for great power competition” and the report warns that a back-log of simultaneous modernisation priorities “will likely outstrip its budget capacity.”
It is a sobering document written by a prestigious institution from one of Washington’s closest allies in the region.
China clearly feels empowered – you can see this from the tone of its recently published defence white paper.
President Xi Jinping has decided not just to stand up to President Trump in the ongoing trade war but to take a much more assertive position, whether it be towards the pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong or to China’s long-standing claims over Taiwan.
China’s military rise to match its growing economic muscle was inevitable. But some analysts fear that President Trump has made a difficult situation worse.
Many in the US feel it was time to stand-up to China on trade – but the way the US is going about it leads several experts to fear that Washington may simply lose the trade war.
Overall the Trump Administration’s foreign policy often lacks a clear strategic aspect and is prone to the whims of the Presidential twitter feed and bizarre distractions like his apparent desire to purchase Greenland.
In contrast China knows exactly where it wants to go and it has the strategy and the means to get there. Indeed, for all intents and purposes, it may have already arrived.
A Frau Merkel sono scappati i pruriti di protagonismo. È eluita nel nulla.
Questo potrebbe essere l’ultimo G7 a cui il mondo deve assistere sconcertato ed impotente.
«Larry Kudlow, aveva accusato la Francia di aver “deciso di abbandonare il comunicato finale basato sul consenso e le proposte concrete” e di volere che “il G7 stia zitto su queste questioni economiche fondamentali”»
«Dov’è l’azione sulla crescita, il commercio, la sicurezza energetica o l’occupazione?»
«Sulla questione del comunicato finale, che non ci sarà per la prima volta in 45 anni»
«la Francia guiderà ‘coalizioni’ di ‘chiunque condivida i nostri valori”, coalizioni che “producono banalità politicamente corrette come appelli a bandire tutto, dalle cannucce ai combustibili fossili”.»
«in agenda G7 nulla su crescita, commercio e occupazione»
«Donald Trump che ha nuovamente minacciato di imporre tariffe sui vini francesi in risposta alla digital tax sulle grandi aziende tecnologiche americane approvata da Parigi …. Qualche ora prima, la minaccia di dazi sui vini francesi aveva portato il presidente del Consiglio europeo, Donald Tusk, ad avvertire: “Proteggerò il vino francese con sincera determinazione, se gli Stati Uniti imporranno delle tasse, l’Ue risponderà sullo stesso piano”»
* * * * * * *
Ma tra gli argomenti che spiccano per non essere stati nemmeno trattati figurano il ‘clima’, il gender, lgbt, il problema della recessione economica.
«To avoid a repetition of what happened at the last summit in Canada, in which Trump refused to sign the final communique with the conclusions he had agreed with, Emmanuel Macron decided to dispense with the usual final document containing the conclusions of the summit. ‘These are communiques that no one reads and that result from endless bureaucratic conflicts,’ he said.»
Il presidente Usa ha minacciato nuove tariffe sui vini francesi in risposta alla digital tax sulle grandi aziende tecnologiche, poi il faccia a faccia con Macron e l’ipotesi di un invito per la Russia al G7 2020. Oggi l’incontro tra Tusk e il premier britannico.
Ed è stato lo stesso presidente americano a sottolineare un rasserenamento nei rapporti con Macron: “Il pranzo che ho avuto con Emmanuel è stato finora il miglior incontro avuto. Allo stesso modo l’incontro serale con i leader del mondo è andato molto bene. Si stanno facendo progressi!”, ha spiegato su Twitter. “La Francia e il presidente Emmanuel Macron hanno fatto un vero grande lavoro finora con un G7 molto importante”, ha aggiunto Trump, sottolineando poi che “la nostra grande economia è il discorso di tutti”: il tycoon, al G7, vuole promuovere la crescita economica basata sulla sua ricetta di taglio delle tasse e deregulation. Un clima di serenità quindi, che secondo il tycoon smentisce le notizie “false e inaccurate” sulle tensioni con gli altri Paesi del G7 e sui rischi di recessione negli Stati Uniti. “Prima che arrivassi in Francia – scrive Trump – notizie false e disgustose sostenevano che le relazioni con gli altri sei Paesi del G7 fossero molto tese e che i due giorni di incontri sarebbero stati in disastro”. Allo stesso modo, prosegue, le fake news “stanno cercando di convincerci di una recessione, stanno tentando di spingere l’America verso tempi economici difficili, tanto peggio, tanto meglio, tutto pur di rendere la mia rielezione più difficile”.
La tensione sui dazi.
Qualche ora prima, la minaccia di dazi sui vini francesi aveva portato il presidente del Consiglio europeo, Donald Tusk, ad avvertire: “Proteggerò il vino francese con sincera determinazione, se gli Stati Uniti imporranno delle tasse, l’Ue risponderà sullo stesso piano”. Poco dopo, lo stesso Macron aveva rincarato la dose affermando che “le tensioni commerciali sono negative per tutti”. Oggi, invece, interpellato su eventuali pressioni degli alleati nei suoi confronti affinché abbandoni la guerra dei dazi con la Cina, Trump ha risposto: “Penso che rispettino la guerra commerciale con la Cina”.
Trump: Russia potrebbe tornare nel 2020.
Trump è poi intervenuto anche sul tema della Russia, dicendo che è “certamente possibile” che Mosca sia invitata al G7 del 2020 che si terrà in America. Ma, si apprende da fonti diplomatiche, i leader del G7 sono concordi sul fatto che è troppo presto per pensare ad un ritorno della Russia (e quindi a un G8): “C’è un percorso di verifica da effettuare, da qui alla fine dell’anno”. Mosca, dal canto suo, ha fatto sapere che esaminerà un eventuale invito a Vladimir Putin per il summit G7 del 2020. “Il presidente Putin – ha affermato il portavoce del Cremlino, Dmitri Peskov, citato dalla testata online Sputnik – in una conferenza stampa ha già risposto: se arriva” l’invito “certamente lo prenderemo in considerazione”.
Kudlow: in agenda G7 nulla su crescita, commercio e occupazione.
Intanto, sul Wall Street Journal il consigliere economico della Casa Bianca, Larry Kudlow, aveva accusato la Francia di aver “deciso di abbandonare il comunicato finale basato sul consenso e le proposte concrete” e di volere che “il G7 stia zitto su queste questioni economiche fondamentali”. Kudlow aveva osservato che i leader del summit avrebbero dovuto prendere esempio dall’amministrazione Trump per la crescita e che “ciò che più colpisce dell’agenda di quest’anno è ciò che manca”. “Dov’è l’azione sulla crescita, il commercio, la sicurezza energetica o l’occupazione?”, aveva scritto Kudlow. E sulla questione del comunicato finale, che non ci sarà per la prima volta in 45 anni, aveva attaccato: “Invece del consenso, la Francia guiderà ‘coalizioni’ di ‘chiunque condivida i nostri valori”, coalizioni che “producono banalità politicamente corrette come appelli a bandire tutto, dalle cannucce ai combustibili fossili”.
Al-Sisi a Conte: l’impegno sul caso Regeni continua.
Intanto ieri, al G7, si è svolto il bilaterale tra il presidente del Consiglio Giuseppe Conte e il presidente egiziano, Abdel Fattah al Sisi, che ha ribadito l’impegno “a continuare gli sforzi per scoprire le circostanze” della morte del ricercatore italiano Giulio Regeni “e portare i responsabili davanti alla giustizia”.
«A previous G8 summit in Deauville, France was noted for its absence of demonstrations as protesters there were also kept at a location 40 km (25 miles) away.»
«This weekend thousands of anti-riot police will block access to Biarritz as authorities fear a repeat of the looting, rioting and car-torching in Paris mid-December last year, when the French capital saw the worst urban violence since the May 1968 student protests.»
«Anti-globalization and climate activists have teamed up with yellow vest protesters and Basque nationalists ahead of a G7 meeting in France this weekend to confront a rich-poor divide they say is growing due to the “cynicism” of world leaders»
«At a “counter-G7” summit in the twin cities of Hendaye, France and Irun, Spain, on the French-Spanish border 30 km (18 miles) south of G7 venue Biarritz, 50 NGOs are meeting to protest at economic and climate policies pursued by the world’s leading industrial countries and to promote alternatives»
«The cynicism of the G7 meeting is that it has made inequality the central theme of the event, but it is these rich countries’ very policies that create and strengthen inequality»
«The “yellow vest” movement included figures with far-right sympathies and has been marked by rioting and looting in a series of often violent weekly protests end 2018-early 2019»
«Speaking on stage at the NGO meeting area in Irun, Aurelie Trouve, spokeswoman for the “Alternatives G7” collective of French NGOs, said the groups bring together climate activists, yellow vests, feminists and other activists»
«On Sunday, activists plan “disobedience” actions and self-described radical environmentalist group “Action non-violente COP21” will defy a ban on demonstrations in Bayonne, 8 km (5 miles) east of Biarritz, with a march carrying official portraits of French President Emmanuel Macron which it says have been taken from town halls around the country»
* * * * * * *
La storia ci ha abituati che un G7 senza dimostranti che mettano a soqquadro intere città sarebbe sembrato un picnic tra compagni di merende.
In questo G7 i leader del Regno Unito, della Germania, dell’Italia e del Canada si presentano come anatre zoppe: o in attesa di risultati elettorali demoralizzanti, oppure situazioni economiche in piena recessione. Molto difficilmente potrebbero essere prese iniziative potenzialmente utili a sbloccare queste situazioni. In particolare, la posizione di Frau Merkel apparirebbe essere traballante, visto che a fine mese le elezioni nei Länder dovrebbero decretare la perdita di almeno quindici punti percentuali per la Cdu e per la Spd.
E si consideri come il ‘clima‘ richieda investimenti ad undici zeri: non si sa donde potrebbero venire.
Da questo punto di vista sta diventando ininfluente che Frau Merkel si dimetta o meno: essere la Bundeskanzlerin di una Große Koalition oramai minoritaria e di una Cdu sotto il 22% ha ridotto il suo ex trono a poco meno di uno sgangherato sgabello.
Tuttavia, poniamoci una domanda.
Organizzare una trasferta di circa dieci – quindicimila dimostranti rappresenta un costo di non poca importanza, stimabile ad almeno un decina di milioni, a voler essere riduttivi. Evidentemente vi sono ambienti che si sobbarcano una spesa di questo tipo, sicuri di averne in rientro.
Anti-globalization and climate activists have teamed up with yellow vest protesters and Basque nationalists ahead of a G7 meeting in France this weekend to confront a rich-poor divide they say is growing due to the “cynicism” of world leaders.
At a “counter-G7” summit in the twin cities of Hendaye, France and Irun, Spain, on the French-Spanish border 30 km (18 miles) south of G7 venue Biarritz, 50 NGOs are meeting to protest at economic and climate policies pursued by the world’s leading industrial countries and to promote alternatives.
“The cynicism of the G7 meeting is that it has made inequality the central theme of the event, but it is these rich countries’ very policies that create and strengthen inequality,” said Sebastien Bailleul, a spokesman for “Alternatives G7”.
He said he saw no contradiction in international anti-globalization activists working with France’s “yellow vest” movement, which grew from a protest against green taxes on fuel.
The “yellow vest” movement included figures with far-right sympathies and has been marked by rioting and looting in a series of often violent weekly protests end 2018-early 2019.
Bailleul added the Basque independence movement in Spain has abandoned violence. In 2011, Basque militant separatist group ETA announced an indefinite halt to its campaign of armed action which killed more than 850 people in Spain over half a century.
“The organization of this counter-summit is with those Basque movements that are rather leftist, and who have the same worldview as the anti-globalization movement,” he said.
He added that the counter-G7 summit would have been a failure if France’s most important social movement, the yellow vests, had not been represented there.
CONVERGENCE OF PROTESTS
Friends of the Earth spokeswoman Malika Peyraut also said the presence of the yellow vests at the G7 was essential.
“We are buildings bridges with the yellow vests, which is a multifaceted movement. Part of it understands very well that social and climate issues are closely linked,” she said.
Yellow vest protesters have a stand at the Ficoba conference center in Irun, across the bridge to Hendaye, and people wearing the movement’s trademark yellow high-visibility vests spoke at several pre-summit events at the center.
“There is a convergence of battles,” yellow vest activist Genevieve Legay told Reuters.
In March, veteran activist Legay, then 73, ended up in hospital after she was knocked over during a police charge on a yellow vest march in Nice.
Speaking on stage at the NGO meeting area in Irun, Aurelie Trouve, spokeswoman for the “Alternatives G7” collective of French NGOs, said the groups bring together climate activists, yellow vests, feminists and other activists.
“At this counter-summit we want to unite all the movements that fight policies imposed by heads of state, policies that benefit the wealthiest and multinational companies and that are discriminatory and authoritarian,” she said.
Counter-summit organizers plan peaceful marches in Hendaye and Irun on Saturday, but yellow vest organizers have also called for their 41st Saturday protest to be held in Biarritz, which is off-limits to protesters.
On Sunday, activists plan “disobedience” actions and self-described radical environmentalist group “Action non-violente COP21” will defy a ban on demonstrations in Bayonne, 8 km (5 miles) east of Biarritz, with a march carrying official portraits of French President Emmanuel Macron which it says have been taken from town halls around the country.
This weekend thousands of anti-riot police will block access to Biarritz as authorities fear a repeat of the looting, rioting and car-torching in Paris mid-December last year, when the French capital saw the worst urban violence since the May 1968 student protests.
A previous G8 summit in Deauville, France was noted for its absence of demonstrations as protesters there were also kept at a location 40 km (25 miles) away.
Da lunga pezza la quasi totalità delle rubriche economiche televisive è condotta da giornaliste. Più che di parità di gender si dovrebbe parlare di usbergo delle femmine. Talune sono state in passato anche belloccie.
Ma per disgrazia loro e degli utenti televisivi parlano, e lo fanno con il piglio di chi abbia la scienza infusa.
Adesso hanno capito anche il perché il mercato del lavoro americano stia tirando così bene.
Nonostante la immane iattura di avere per presidente – not my president – Mr Trump, del quale non si dice mai male a sufficienza, grazie alla strenua volontà di resistenza dei liberal democratici, l’economia sta andando più che bene. È grazie alle ferme prese di posizione a difesa dell’aborto, lgbt, etc, che i repubblicani sono quasi completamente scomparsi dai suburbi delle grandi metropoli, con grande sollievo dell’economia. Ma è stata la lotta alla disponibilità delle armi da fuoco a decretare la scomparsa politica di Mr Trump. Sarebbe moribondo.
Ad un Mr Trump calante corrisponderebbe sequenzialmente un’economia in ascesa.
* * *
Questa è l’ultima teoria economica dei liberal, e le speakers di Bloomberg la declinano in tutte le salse. Lo dicono come se spiegassero la teoria dei gravi.
Si faccia presto ad assimilarla, perché domani potrebbero aver cambiato idea.
«femmina è bello se lavora nella dirigenza avversaria», diceva malignamente Mr Putin.
* * *
Riportiamo quindi l’articolo di Reuters, non certo fan di Mr Trump, che sembrerebbe essere almeno decente nel riportare la notizia.
«U.S. weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fall»
«The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting the labor market remains strong even as the economy is slowing.»
«Concerns over the impact of the bitter trade war between Washington and Beijing on the U.S. economic expansion, the longest on record, prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates last week for the first time since 2008»
«With tensions between the two economic giants escalating in recent days and recession risks rising, financial markets have fully priced in another rate cut next month»
«Expectations for a 50-basis-point cut at the Fed’s Sept. 17-18 policy meeting have also risen»
«While hiring has slowed, the pace of job gains remains well above the roughly 100,000 needed per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population»
«Nonfarm payrolls increased by 164,000 jobs in July, down from 193,000 in June. Job growth over the last three months averaged 140,000 per month, the lowest in nearly two years, compared to 223,000 in 2018. The moderation in employment growth partly reflects a shortage of workers»
«The economy grew at a 2.1% annualized rate in the second quarter, slowing from the first quarter’s brisk 3.1% pace. Growth is seen below a 2.0% rate in the July-September quarter.»
* * * * * * *
Per un evidente refuso, è scappata anche una frase audace:
«The moderation in employment growth partly reflects a shortage of workers»
Quando una nazione è in regime di massima occupazione, più di tanto gli occupati non possono aumentare.
The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting the labor market remains strong even as the economy is slowing.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits declined 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 209,000 for the week ended Aug. 3, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Data for the prior week was revised to show 2,000 more applications received than previously reported.
Last week’s drop in claims pushed them to the lower end of their 193,000-244,000 range for this year. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims would be unchanged at 215,000 in the latest week. The Labor Department said only claims for Idaho were estimated last week.
The four-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, edged up 250 to 212,250 last week.
U.S. stock index futures held gains after the release of the data. Prices of U.S. Treasuries dipped while the dollar (DXY) was trading slightly higher.
Claims will be watched over the coming weeks for signs that deteriorating trade relations between the United States and China, which have dimmed the economy’s outlook and roiled financial markets, were spilling over to the labor market.
Concerns over the impact of the bitter trade war between Washington and Beijing on the U.S. economic expansion, the longest on record, prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates last week for the first time since 2008.
With tensions between the two economic giants escalating in recent days and recession risks rising, financial markets have fully priced in another rate cut next month. Expectations for a 50-basis-point cut at the Fed’s Sept. 17-18 policy meeting have also risen.
While hiring has slowed, the pace of job gains remains well above the roughly 100,000 needed per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 164,000 jobs in July, down from 193,000 in June. Job growth over the last three months averaged 140,000 per month, the lowest in nearly two years, compared to 223,000 in 2018. The moderation in employment growth partly reflects a shortage of workers.
The economy grew at a 2.1% annualized rate in the second quarter, slowing from the first quarter’s brisk 3.1% pace. Growth is seen below a 2.0% rate in the July-September quarter.
Thursday’s claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid dropped 15,000 to 1.68 million for the week ended July 27. The four-week moving average of the so-called continuing claims fell 11,000 to 1.69 million.
Combating inequality within our societies and worldwide is a matter of justice, just as it is an urgent task we must address if we are to win back the trust of our citizens in our international governance system.
To fight this battle, the G7, an informal forum for the major economic powers that share democratic values and the ambition to address great global issues, provides a good setting to generate momentum and put forward tangible solutions.
But as the President of the French Republic stressed in his speech before the United Nations General Assembly on 25 September 2018, “the time when a club of rich countries could alone define the world’s balances is long gone.”
That is why he wanted the French G7 Presidency in 2019 to be an opportunity to adjust the format of the group, involving: 1/ major democracies with major regional influence; 2/ African partners to build a renewed partnership; and 3/ key representatives of civil society, with the aim of forming coalitions around projects and producing solutions to combat all forms of inequality more effectively, legitimately and tangibly.
The following partners will be involved in the Leaders’ Summit in Biarritz, as well as in preparatory events:
4 major partners committed to the protection and promotion of democratic freedoms
At a time of digital transformation and climate change, France was keen to involve key partners in addressing these issues at the G7, partners committed, like us, to democratic values and fundamental freedoms:
– South Africa.
With these four major democracies, we will work to strengthen the protection of fundamental freedoms at a time when digital technology and artificial intelligence are developing. We will propose tangible measures to protect the planet, focusing on protection of biodiversity, the climate and the oceans. Chile, which will be hosting COP25 in December 2019, will be a key ally in this context.
Six African partners to build a partnership of equals with this continent of the future
To address global inequality, the French G7 Presidency wants to forge an equal partnership with Africa.
“It is not only on this continent that we will collectively win or lose our huge battle against inequality. It is with this continent.”
(The French President at the United Nations General Assembly – New York, 25 September 2018).
In addition to South Africa, four countries playing a leading role on the continent and which are players in multilateral cooperation, committed to preserving biodiversity and ambitious implementation of the Paris Agreement on climate change, are also invited to the Biarritz Summit and to several preparatory meetings:
– Burkina Faso, which is chairing the G5 Sahel in 2019;
– Egypt, which is currently chairing the African Union;
– Senegal, which chairs the Heads of State or Government Orientation Committee of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD, the African Union development agency);
– Rwanda, which chaired the African Union in 2018.
Moussa Faki, in his capacity as Chair of the African Union Commission, will also be invited to the Summit.
Together, we want to find effective tools to ensure sustainable economic development in Africa, fostering the creation of jobs for young people and women’s entrepreneurship. Access to education and health, which are essential conditions to combat inequality of opportunity, digital inclusion, and access to finance for economic actors are central to our discussions with our African partners, focusing in particular on the Sahel region, where these multiple challenges are acute.
Key representatives of civil society committed to the French G7 Presidency
By closely involving the G7 Gender Equality Advisory Council in preparatory work. The Advisory Council brings together exceptional figures committed to the fight against violence and discrimination, promoting girls’ access to education, economic empowerment of women and women’s entrepreneurship;
By taking into account solutions proposed by local stakeholders, in Biarritz, the Basque country, PyrénéesAtlantiques and Nouvelle-Aquitaine, and implementing them in the Summit venue to help combat inequality and protect biodiversity and the oceans. Three debates will be organized in the Basque country ahead of the Summit.
France wants to reach a deal with the US on taxing tech giants by a G7 meeting in late August, Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire said Saturday.
He was responding to US President Donald Trump, who on Friday vowed “substantial” retaliation against France for a law passed this month on taxing digital companies even if their headquarters are elsewhere.
The law would affect US-based global giants like Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon, among others.
Trump denounced French President Emmanuel Macron’s “foolishness”, though they discussed the issue by phone on Friday, according to the White House.
Macron confirmed that he had a “long” conversation with Trump, stressing the pair would “continue to work together in view of the G7”.
“We will discuss international taxation, trade and collective security”, he said Saturday.
His office earlier said Macron had told Trump that the tax on the tech giants was not just in France’s interest but was something they both had a stake in.
Neither side revealed if they had also discussed Trump’s threat to tax French wines in retaliation.
Le Maire took the same line at a news conference Saturday: “We wish to work closely with our American friends on a universal tax on digital activities.
“We hope between now and the end of August — the G7 heads of state meeting in Biarritz — to reach an agreement.” Leaders of the Group of Seven highly industrialised countries are to meet in the southwestern French city on August 24-26.
– Plugging a taxation gap –
Le Maire emphasised that “there is no desire to specifically target American companies,” since the three-percent tax would be levied on revenues generated from services to French consumers by all of the world’s largest tech firms, including Chinese and European ones.
But Deputy White House spokesman Judd Deere noted earlier that France’s digital services tax was already the subject of an investigation at the US Trade Representative’s office, potentially opening the door to economic sanctions.
“The Trump administration has consistently stated that it will not sit idly by and tolerate discrimination against US-based firms,” Deere said in a statement.
The French law aims to plug a taxation gap that has seen some internet heavyweights paying next to nothing in European countries where they make huge profits, because their legal base is in smaller EU states.
France has said it would withdraw the tax if an international agreement was reached, and Paris hopes to include all OECD countries by the end of 2020.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development is a Paris-based forum that advises the world’s advanced economies.
* * * * * * *
«Combating inequality within our societies and worldwide is a matter of justice, just as it is an urgent task we must address if we are to win back the trust of our citizens in our international governance system»
«To fight this battle, the G7, an informal forum for the major economic powers that share democratic values and the ambition to address great global issues, provides a good setting to generate momentum and put forward tangible solutions»
«the time when a club of rich countries could alone define the world’s balances is long gone»
«At a time of digital transformation and climate change, France was keen to involve key partners in addressing these issues at the G7, partners committed, like us, to democratic values and fundamental freedoms: Australia, Chile, India, South Africa.»
«We will propose tangible measures to protect the planet, focusing on protection of biodiversity, the climate and the oceans»
«Together, we want to find effective tools to ensure sustainable economic development in Africa, fostering the creation of jobs for young people and women’s entrepreneurship»
* * * * * * *
Il documento ufficiale di Mr Macron esprime chiaramente che
«the time when a club of rich countries could alone define the world’s balances is long gone»
e da anche una nuova, personalissima, definizione del G7
«an informal forum for the major economic powers that share democratic values and the ambition to address great global issues».
La contraddizione è chiaramente evidente.
Nella prima frase Mr Macron prende atto che gli attuali G7 non possono più permettersi di governare l’economica mondiale. Le proiezioni dell’IMF sono drastiche: mentre il G7 rende conto del 27.06% dell’economia mondiale, i Brics detengono il 35.9%. Un G7 senza i Brics non può ambire a modulare i “world’s balances“
Nella seconda cerca invece la giustificazione della esclusione: “major economic powers that share democratic values“. In altri termini, i paesi del G7 sarebbero democratici mentre gli altri sarebbero totalitari. Il discrimine diventa quindi il concetto stesso di cosa sia o non sia ‘democratico‘. Se i valori della democrazia fosse quelli dell’ideologia liberal, sono molti, la maggior parte del mondo, a non volerli condividere, a non volerne sapere.
* * * * * * *
Si noti come dalla Nota dell’Eliseo siano praticamente scomparsi, tranne vaghi accenni, il gender, l’lgbt, il ‘clima’ e la sostituzione del carbone. Nemmeno un piccolo accenno alle energie alternative.
I problemi sono infatti all’interno dei G7, e quelli di Mr Macron hanno un ben preciso nome e cognome: Mr Trump.
Si comprendono bene i tentativi fatti da Mr Macron di allargare sia pure in modo informale il G7 a molti paesi africani, ma non si venga a dire che i paesi selezionati condividano i “democratic values” di Mr Macron.
«France said it will not accept a final G20 communique that does not mention the Paris climate change agreement, as President Emmanuel Macron hardened his position on climate change ahead of the G20 meeting.
Japanese media reported on Wednesday that leaders of the G20 top economies will call this week for the promotion of free trade to achieve strong global growth, as the United States and China seek to resume talks to resolve a bitter trade dispute.
In preparing a joint communique, Japan, the chair of the meetings, seeks common ground between the United States, which opposes language denouncing protectionism, and other nations, which want a stronger warning against the risk of trade tension.
However, France was adamant that any final G20 communique must also mention the 2016 Paris Climate Change agreement that was set up to protect the environment.»
La impressione netta sarebbe che anche questo G20 farà la fine dei precedenti.
«While the G20 was originally established in response to the global financial crisis, its core mission today is to establish economic fundamentals for realizing sustainable and inclusive growth of the global economy. From this perspective, first, the G20 discusses the impact of structural factors on the global economy, such as global imbalances and aging, in addition to monitoring major risks through surveillance of the global economy.
Second, the G20 discusses concrete actions for strengthening growth potential. We also discuss sustainable financing to promote Universal Health Coverage (UHC) in developing countries as well as promoting debt transparency and ensuring debt sustainability in low-income countries, in addition to promotion of the Quality Infrastructure Investment (QII), as well as measures that further reinforce the basis of sustainable development, including strengthening financial resilience against natural disasters such as disaster risk financing.
Third, in the areas of international taxation and finance, we take up issues of how to respond to economic and social structural changes brought by digitalization and globalization of the economy through technological innovation. This structural change has been radically changing the world’s economic and social landscape and business models. In order to harness this change for achieving sound growth, it is urgent to implement policy response in the area of internal taxation and finance, while avoiding harmful fragmentation of the global economic system.»
«International trade and investment are important engines of growth, productivity, innovation, job creation and development. The current development surrounding international trade are negatively affecting the prospects of global economy and trade. The G20 members, covering more than 80% of global GDP, have responsibility for resolving this situation. The G20 Ministerial Meeting on Trade and Digital Economy, held in Tsukuba city on June 8 and 9 focuses on the following issues:
– Dialogue on Current International Trade Developments
– A Sound Business Environment that Promotes Market-driven Investment Decisions
– Promotion of Trade and Investment that Contribute to Sustainable and Inclusive Growth
– WTO Reform, Recent Developments in Bilateral and Regional Trade Agreements
– Interface between Trade and Digital Economy (joint session with the Ministerial Meeting on Digital Economy)
The rule-based multilateral trading system is at a critical juncture. In order to restore the confidence in the multilateral trading system, it is imperative to maintain and strengthen the momentum of WTO reform. At the Buenos Aires Summit, G20 Leaders expressed their “support [to] the necessary reform of the WTO to improve its functioning”, and agreed to review its progress at the Osaka Summit. Based on this, the Japanese presidency will take the lead in discussions in order to provide further political momentum to the WTO reform.
Furthermore, based on the discussions that took place in the past G20 summits, we continue to discuss the issue of the steel excess capacity which is a global issue that requires collective response under the Japanese presidency. In this context, the Global Forum for Steel Excess Capacity (GFSEC), which was established in 2016 based on the agreement at the G20 Hangzhou Summit, continues the process of information-sharing on members’ production capacities and support measures, as well as the review process based on the provided information.»
«Under the past presidencies, G20 discussion has focused on how innovation, including digitalization, drives the economic growth and enhance productivity, while also shedding light on the importance of addressing its impact on labour market, skills, and digital divide. The Japanese presidency proposes focusing on the crucial role played by data in the 21st century economic system. …. »
Climate change, which is becoming more serious as seen by the frequent occurrence of disasters due to extreme climate all over the world in recent years, poses immediate challenges that require concerted actions by the international community. To address climate related challenges in a global scale under the framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement, it is necessary to accelerate “a virtuous cycle of environment and growth” and aim to create a paradigm shift which promotes business-led innovation. To facilitate such efforts, it will be essential to create a number of innovations in the field of climate change and apply them in society. G20 members are focusing on discussing issues such as innovation, finance mobilization, and collaborating with non-state actors, together with addressing traditional major topics including mitigation, adaptation and climate finance.
Energy G20 Ministerial Meeting on Energy Transitions and Global Environment for Sustainable Growth is held on 15 to 16 June 2019 in Karuizawa, Nagano. Regarding energy, while attaching importance on energy transitions in accordance with each country’s own circumstances, discussions at the Ministerial Meeting and the G20 Osaka Summit focuses on accelerating innovation such as hydrogen and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) as a major impetus for a virtuous cycle of environmental and growth, mobilizing private finance for innovation, and improving business environment for dissemination of innovative technologies. In addition, building upon the outcomes of the discussion on energy during the previous Presidencies, various energy-related issues are comprehensively discussed.
Environment (Marine Plastic Litter)
Marine plastic litter, which has been attracting global attention in recent years, is an urgent challenge, given that it harms the marine ecosystem and impacts our health. In order to resolve this problem, measures to address this issue need to be taken by all countries, including emerging economies. G20 members are discussing how to prevent the discharge of plastic litter into the ocean and facilitate innovation in order to intensify global efforts on this issues at the “G20 Ministerial Meeting on Energy Transitions and Global Environment for Sustainable Growth” and the G20 Osaka Summit.»
A tutt’oggi on è dato di sapere se Mr Trump sia o meno presente al summit: non ha ancora risposto alla richiesta di adesione. Di certo si potrebbe soltanto dire che:
– “U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo chose not to attend” alla riunione preparatoria.
– “The Trump administration pushed the G-7 nations to water down a declaration on gender equality last week as part of its broad effort to stamp out references to sexual and reproductive health”
– “Environment ministers of the G7 nations met in France Sunday, a day ahead of the release of what is expected to be another alarming report on the state of the planet …. But Andrew Wheeler, the former coal lobbyist appointed by President Donald Trump to head of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), told the meeting too much attention was being paid to the worst-case scenarios on climate change.»
* * * * * * *
Inutile sottolineare come la eventuale assenza di Mr Trump decreterebbe la morte del G7. Ma anche una sua presenza scettica non concorrerebbe a rinvigorire questa istituzione.
Da quanto sembrerebbe di poter capire, Mr Macron ha stilato l’agenda senza quasi consultarsi con gli altri paesi membri, molti dei quali potrebbero avere seri dubbi in proposito.
Poi, i capi di governo che si riuniranno avranno ciascuno le proprie grane.
Mr Trudeau, premier canadese, tra qualche mese andrà incontro alle elezioni politiche che lo vedrebbero sconfitto secondo i sondaggi.
Mr Macron risulterebbe essere indebolito dalla rivolta dei Gilets Jaunes, ma soprattuto dal fatto che nelle ultime elezioni il suo partito sia stato battuto da RN di Marine Le Pen.
Frau Merkel è ancora cancelliera tedesca, ma è reduce da una impressionante serie di rovesci elettorali e si appresta a delle elezioni nei Länder orientali che dovrebbero sancire la morte politica della Cdu.
Al momento in cui si scrive, il Regno Unito non ha ancora eletto il nuovo premier a sostituzione di Mrs May: ma chiunque esso sia avrà forse più problemi dalla gestione della Brexit che non da quella del gender nel globo terraqueo.
Ad oggi almeno, sembrerebbe preannunciarsi un G7 inconcludente.
Sarebbe in tal caso un altro ridimensionamento alle ambizioni di Mr Macron.
«U.S. President Donald Trump did not confirm he would attend August’s summit of the G7 group of rich nations in southwestern France city of Biarritz when he met President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday, a French official said.
A G7 foreign ministers meeting held in Britanny earlier this year was overshadowed when U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo chose not to attend, underscoring how tough agreeing common ground between allies has become at the annual big power summit.
Along with the United States, France and Britain, the group includes Japan, Germany, Italy, Canada and the European Union.
Tensions between the United States and its European allies have meant that where they were once largely in accord, they now seek the lowest common denominator at international gatherings.»
«The Trump administration pushed the G-7 nations to water down a declaration on gender equality last week as part of its broad effort to stamp out references to sexual and reproductive health in international institutions, according to people involved in the process and drafts reviewed by Foreign Policy.
It is only the latest iteration of the administration’s hard-line stance against any language that might suggest approval of abortion in the official documents of international institutions that include the United States. The heavy-handed diplomatic strategy has put Washington at odds with European allies and drawn criticism from women’s advocacy groups for undercutting wider efforts to improve global gender equality.
The Group of 7, representing seven of the most advanced economies in the world, issued a communique on women’s equality this month that was pared down in some sections from initial drafts circulated in advance among diplomats and experts.
U.S. officials raised red lines on what should be axed from the communique, including a seemingly innocuous section praising the G-7’s Gender Equality Advisory Council, an independent group of experts and diplomats working on gender equality, and language on reproductive health.
The measures follow a pattern that has played out at the United Nations, where the Trump administration last month went as far as threatening to veto a U.N. measure to prevent sexual violence over language on sexual and reproductive health (though last-minute diplomatic wrangling averted the veto).
U.S. officials under President Donald Trump have argued that the phrase “sexual and reproductive health” refers specifically to abortion. Experts and advocacy groups disagree and point to the phrase being used consistently in international institutions and treaties for decades.
The G-7—which includes the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan—has traditionally avoided contentious debates on gender-related health issues as part of the group’s broader discussions on political and economic priorities. Recent G-7 summits, normally carefully choreographed and diplomatic affairs, became anything but under Trump. At the 2018 G-7 summit in Canada, Trump refused to sign the joint statement and derided Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “Very dishonest & weak” in scathing tweets after the summit over disagreements on trade.»
«- Crises to keep Trump, Macron, May away from Davos
– Somber mood expected at Jan 22-25 elite gathering
– Trade row, recession fears and global tensions dominate agenda
An array of crises will keep several world leaders away from the annual World Economic Forum in Davos next week, which takes place against a backdrop of deepening gloom over the global economic and political outlook.
Anxiety over trade disputes, fractious international relations, Brexit and a growth slowdown that some fear could tip the world economy into recession are set to dominate the Jan. 22-25 Alpine meeting and the mood will be somber.»
«Environment ministers of the G7 nations met in France Sunday, a day ahead of the release of what is expected to be another alarming report on the state of the planet.
Ministers from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States gathered for the two-day meeting in the northeastern city of Metz.
They were due to discuss measures to tackle deforestation, plastic pollution and the degradation of coral reefs and try to form alliances between nations to act on them.
Joining the ministers were delegations from the European Union as well as Chile, Egypt, the Fiji Islands, Gabon, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Niger and Norway. ….
But Andrew Wheeler, the former coal lobbyist appointed by President Donald Trump to head of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), told the meeting too much attention was being paid to the worst-case scenarios on climate change.»
Foreign and interior ministers from the Group of Seven countries are gathering in France this week to try to find ambitious solutions to world security challenges. Putting a dampener on that are two glaring American absences: U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen.
The fact that ranking U.S. officials are skipping the Thursday-Saturday meetings in Paris and the resort of Dinard raises questions about the G7’s relevance and effectiveness at solving the very international issues it has laid out as crucial, including fighting terrorism and human trafficking.
The interior ministers’ meetings started Thursday in Paris with a lunch focusing on migration issues, human trafficking and the fight against smugglers.
U.S. President Donald Trump has made no secret of his disdain for the G7, especially since Russia was pushed out of the gathering of major world economies after its annexation of Crimea in 2014. The U.S. absences signal that the Trump administration has downgraded the group — which also includes France, Canada, Japan, Germany, Italy and the U.K. — in its list of priorities.
Pompeo is in Washington this week, far from French shores, hosting NATO’s foreign ministers to mark the alliance’s 70th anniversary. Nielsen is staying behind to deal with border issues in the U.S.
Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland, meanwhile, announced she is attending both the NATO meeting and the G7 summit in Dinard.
In fact, alliances are fraying everywhere, even at NATO as Pompeo shines a spotlight on America’s involvement in the military alliance. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg acknowledged internal NATO disagreements this week on trade, climate change and the Iran nuclear deal, but insisted the 29 allies are united in their commitment to defend each other.
France, which took over the G7’s presidency in January, is hosting a summit of interior ministers in Paris on Thursday and Friday, which overlaps with a summit of G7 foreign ministers on Friday and Saturday in Dinard.
U.S. Homeland Security official Claire Grady is standing in for Nielsen at the interior ministers’ meetings. Deputy Secretary of State John J. Sullivan will stand in for Pompeo, discussing “a broad range of issues, including the deteriorating situation in Venezuela, destabilizing Iranian behavior in the Middle East, the responsible conduct of states in cyber space, and the final denuclearization of North Korea,” the State Department said.
It said these conversations will “set the stage” for the August G7 summit France will host in the southwestern city of Biarritz.
Last June, Trump roiled the -7 meeting in Canada by first agreeing to a group statement on trade only to withdraw from it while complaining that he had been blindsided by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s criticism of Trump’s tariff threats at a news conference. In an extraordinary set of tweets aboard Air Force One, Trump threw the G7 summit into disarray and threatened to escalate his trade war just as Canada released the G7’s official communique.
France’s Foreign Ministry listed the main issues under discussion this week as cybersecurity, the trafficking of drugs, arms and migrants in Africa’s troubled Sahel region, and fighting gender inequality. That includes ways to prevent rape and violence against women, especially in Africa.
The French presidency says the interior ministers’ meeting aims to set joint commitments on security and counterterrorism, including how to deal with citizens who have joined Islamic State militants in Syria and Iraq, or their wives and children.
Many IS fighters have been captured and imprisoned in those countries.
A top official at the French Interior Ministry stressed that the instability of the region, after U.S.-backed forces declared military victory over the Islamic State group in Syria last month, still poses a challenge. The problem has grown more urgent since Trump announced his intention to reduce the U.S. military presence in Syria.
“We need to coordinate our policies to prevent that risk. We must avoid a dispersion of foreign fighters, avoid that they gather together elsewhere,” the official said, speaking anonymously ahead of the meeting in accordance with French government practice.
The U.S. has called for countries to take back their citizens and put them on trial, if necessary, but Western countries have largely refused to take back their detained citizens. France says French fighters must be tried wherever they committed their crimes.
U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters, who are holding some of the IS fighters, have called for an international tribunal for IS detainees.
The G7 interior ministers will also discuss ways to fight terrorism and extremism on the internet, possibly by imposing regulations on internet giants like Facebook, Twitter and Google.
Interior ministers from Niger and Burkina Faso are joining Thursday’s lunch on migration to put a focus on Africa’s Sahel region, a source of migration to Europe as well as a transit region and destination for smuggling.
«Lo spread fra il Btp decennale e il Bund scende dopo le parole di Mario Draghi. Il presidente della Bce, ha detto che ulteriori tagli dei tassi restano fra le opzioni disponibili, che che il quantitative easing (QE) ha ancora spazio. Nel pomeriggio è sotto la soglia dei 240 punti, a 238,7, per la prima volta da metà marzo scorso.»
Al momento di scrivere il cambio Eur/Usd valeva 1.1188.
Di questi tempi non sarebbe male seguire anche i bookmaker di Londra e l’attività dei compro-oro: per loro le previsioni errate si concretizzano in perdite. E non sono gente che gradisca le perdite.
L’annuncio selezionato verte uno dei principali compro-oro europei.
Anche se il mercato è terreno quasi privato delle banche centrali, le richieste al dettaglio iniziano a farsi sentire, e sono un segno prognostico non dei migliori. Il picco di discesa sembrerebbe essere il risultato dell’intervento di una banca centrale. Magari di quella russa.
«Harvard hat der Kanzlerin die Ehrendoktorwürde verliehen und vor allem den Satz “Wir schaffen das” gewürdigt. In ihrer Rede beschwor sie den freien Welthandel.»
Il padrino regalava sempre un Rolex d’oro a quelli che aveva ordinato di uccidere.
«We have to take our destiny much more into our own hands in the future if we want to be strong»
A giudicare dai risultati elettorali ed economici Frau Merkel si sarà sicuramente presa in mano il suo destino, e con esso quello della Germania, ma sembrerebbe arduo vederne buoni risultati.
È antica costumanza diplomatica che quando un capo di stato vada in visita come tale in un altro stato sia ricevuto dal suo pari, e con tutti gli onori. Diverso è il caso di una visita privata, che però buon garbo suggerirebbe di notificare con un congruo lasso di tempo.
«Merkel visits Harvard Thursday but is skipping the White House»
«Merkel has faced a barrage of attacks since Trump took office — over German luxury cars, defense spending, Iran, Russian gas, and doing business with China’s Huawei Technologies Co. But it was the rupture after last June’s G-7 meeting that made up her mind: Trump is not a partner that Germany can rely on.»
«Almost 12 months on, the situation has only gotten worse. There’s a mix of anguish and frustration in Berlin and officials are asking themselves whether the relationship has already crossed the point of no return.»
«When the chancellor visits the U.S. Thursday, she’ll give a commencement speech at Harvard University, but she won’t bother visiting the White House as she has the past two years.»
«U.S. officials insist that Trump respects Merkel. But they also give a sense of the misunderstanding at the heart of their relationship.»
«U.S. officials insist that Trump respects Merkel. But they also give a sense of the misunderstanding at the heart of their relationship.»
* * * * * * *
Se il fatto non fosse una farsa, sarebbe da considerarlo una tragedia.
Il cuore del problema risiede nel fatto che le divergenze in essere tra due stati non dovrebbero mai debordare in un fatto personale tra i capi dei medesimi. Si possono avere esigenze e visioni divergenti, anche opposte, ma ciò non dovrebbe inficiare il rapporto umano. Tanto, alla fine, ci si deve pur sempre sedere attorno ad un tavolo e trattare: al massimo cambiano le persone. Tenere il broncio, farsi i dispettucci dovrebbe essere roba da donnicciole, da lavandaie ai trogoli, ed in questo Frau Merkel è un ottimo esempio.
A nostro personale ed ovviamente opinabile punto di vista, le rigidità in diplomazia gettano solo sabbia negli ingranaggi, rendendo sempre più difficile la possibilità di arrivare ad un accordo gradito ad ambo le parti.
A novembre l’attuale dirigenza dell’Unione Europea scadrà, lasciando il posto ad altre figure politiche.
Queste avranno sicuramente le proprie idee politiche ed economiche, ma sarebbe auspicabile che avessero un briciolino in più di arte diplomatica o, quanto meno, di buona educazione.
Consoliamoci con il fatto che Frau Merkel non è eterna, anche se lei se lo crede.
– Merkel visits Harvard Thursday but is skipping the White House
– Trump has hammered Merkel on trade, China, Nord Stream, cars
For Angela Merkel, the wakeup call came in the middle of the night.
The German chancellor was asleep in her government plane somewhere over the Atlantic in June last year when Donald Trump scuttled the fragile settlement she’d built with other Group of Seven leaders in Canada, according to a person familiar with the events.
Before turning in for the night, she’d been in a buoyant mood due to the concessions she secured from the U.S. president for a common statement on trade. When he went back on his word, she was stunned.
Merkel has faced a barrage of attacks since Trump took office — over German luxury cars, defense spending, Iran, Russian gas, and doing business with China’s Huawei Technologies Co. But it was the rupture after last June’s G-7 meeting that made up her mind: Trump is not a partner that Germany can rely on.
Almost 12 months on, the situation has only gotten worse. There’s a mix of anguish and frustration in Berlin and officials are asking themselves whether the relationship has already crossed the point of no return.
Even if Trump loses in 2020, they say the trust that underpinned the transatlantic friendship for seven decades may be gone for good. Germany has already started building new alliances that will safeguard its interests in a world where the U.S. won’t. And some of them are not to Washington’s liking.
“We have to take our destiny much more into our own hands in the future if we want to be strong,” Merkel told a political rally on Friday in Munich.
When the chancellor visits the U.S. Thursday, she’ll give a commencement speech at Harvard University, but she won’t bother visiting the White House as she has the past two years.
U.S. officials insist that Trump respects Merkel. But they also give a sense of the misunderstanding at the heart of their relationship.
Trump’s main beef with Merkel is Germany’s trade surplus, one senior administration official said. But the U.S. administration has little patience with the fact that Germany, like all other European Union members, has handed control of trade negotiations to Brussels. Trump argues that Germany should be able to use its leverage as Europe’s largest economy to sway the talks.
In private meetings, the president has implored Merkel to engage personally in trade talks, the official said. But the chancellor insists he has to speak to the European Commission.
The official insists there is no animosity, but nor is there any rapport.
“The president has his opinions, and I have mine,” Merkel said in an interview with CNN aired Tuesday. “Very often we also find common ground. If not, then we have to keep on talking and negotiating.”
It’s a far cry from Barack Obama, or even George W. Bush. She embraced Obama when he visited the chancellery in April and in 2007 she was delighted to visit Bush’s Texas ranch.
White House Tour
It’s not that Trump and Merkel haven’t tried.
On her second visit to the Trump White House in April 2018, the president gave Merkel a tour of the residence, including the Lincoln Bedroom, as he sought to impress her.
But Trump acts as if his charm offensives can work even when he’s attacking Germany on policy issues. For Merkel, it all adds up and the result is a president she can’t trust.
Weeks after that White House visit, he claimed, — falsely — that crime in Germany was “way up” because of Merkel’s immigration policy. A month later he labeled her a “captive of Russia” for planning a new gas link. In December, U.S. officials threatened to shut Germany out of shared intelligence networks if Huawei was allowed to supply equipment for the country’s fifth-generation data networks.
All this is part of a broader assault on the multilateral world order that has kept Germany safe and made it rich. As Trump steps up his attacks, Merkel’s warnings about the dangers that poses are growing darker.
After that last White House visit, the chancellor began to ruminate on the Thirty Years War which devastated Europe in the 17th century. Then, as now, Europe had enjoyed some 70 years of stability. And then, as now, leaders began to disregard the constraints that underpinned that peace.
“In one fell swoop, the whole order went in the trash,” Merkel said at a religious conference a few days after returning from Washington.
That’s increasingly how decision-makers in Germany view the transatlantic relationship. Even as they muddle through in areas where cooperation is possible, the toughest issues are getting tougher.
Trump’s policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran has left German officials struggling to hold together the accord that restricted the regime’s ability to produce weapons-grade uranium after the U.S. pulled out. German officials are bewildered at what they see as a lack of strategic direction.
With German businesses angry at being forced to bow to threats from the White House, one senior official said Iran could be the issue that triggers a broader rupture between the U.S. and Germany.
New Ties to Russia
As Trump turns the screws, he’s forcing Germany into the arms of rival powers like China and Russia, a move that serves in turn to deepen the frustration in Washington.
Perhaps the most significant example is the Nord Stream 2 pipeline which will pump 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany.
Officials in Merkel’s chancellery were taken aback in February at coordinated American diplomatic maneuvers to scuttle the project and now the U.S. is threatening sanctions against companies involved.
“We always have had powers that were trying to change the rules of the game,” Niels Annen, Germany’s deputy foreign minister, told a conference in Berlin this month. “What is new is the country that was really at the beginning, that was at the creation of that set of rules, is now trying to question this.”
At the center of the Trump diplomacy in Berlin is Ambassador Richard Grenell, a Trump loyalist and one-time Fox News contributor with a penchant for lighting political brush fires and a direct line to the president. Grenell’s sharp elbows might be a deliberate tactic for Trump, but at least in the short term, they damage his cause.
Trump has potential allies in Berlin who agree that Germany should raise defense spending and take a harder line on Russia. But Grenell’s scorched-earth approach is alienating the German public and making it difficult for them to offer him support, according to several officials.
“The way in which at least the American administration makes policy in general at the moment, with a lot of sanctions, with the fact that international agreements are scrapped, is not a good way to cooperate,” Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who replaced Merkel as leader of the governing Christian Democrats last year, told Bloomberg Television in Davos, Switzerland, in January.
And so Merkel is edging toward a world in which Germany no longer relies on the U.S. In November last year she raised the prospect of a European army. Merkel called Trump’s bluff over Huawei, refusing to ban the company from German networks. And the Russian gas pipeline is going ahead.
But it’s not a world that Merkel has sought and it’s not one that she welcomes.
When she realized it would fall to her to build it on that flight back from Quebec she was shocked. She avoided the reporters on her plane until they landed again in Berlin. Then she got straight into her car, and drove off.
Cerchiamo di riassumere, anche se al momento attuale non è ancora dato di conoscere l’esatta composizione dei gruppi parlamentari: non si sa, per esempio. quale collocazione vorrà dare Mr Orban a tutti i suoi europarlamentari.
Ricordiamo come sia il Consiglio Europeo a dover proporre il presidente della Commissione ed i relativi commissari: gli europarlamentari avranno il compito di esaminare le proposte e, nel caso, di approvarle.
Sicuramente si formeranno degli schieramenti, ma si tenga sempre presente che gli stati hanno il diritto di veto: opzione da usarsi con la massima prudenza, ma pur sempre possibile.
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– Il partito popolare europeo scende dai 221 agli attuali 180 seggi: perde 41 seggi, -18.55%
– Il partito socialista europeo scende dai 191 seggi del 2014 agli attuali 145, perde 46 seggi, -24.08%.
– La sinistra – GUE/Ngl – scende dai 52 agli attuali 38 seggi: perde 14 seggi, -26.92%.
– Il blocco liberal senza l’Aldeppe e pse scende da 412 deputati agli attuali 325. prde quindi 87 seggi, -21.12%.
– In Francia il Rem, il partito del presidente Macron, ha conseguito il 22.41% dei voti, cui conseguono 21 seggi, mentre Rn, il partito della Mrs Le Pen, si è piazzato al 23.31%, conquistandosi 23 seggi.
– In Germania la Cdu è scesa dal 35% al 28.9%, e la Spd è crollata dal 27% al 15.8%.
– Gli europarlamentare inglesi di Mr Farage sembrerebbero poi essere non troppo propensi all’Unione Europea.
Punto della situazione.
– La passata coalizione ppe e pse ha perso i numeri per formare una maggioranza. Rimedierà cooptando l’Alde, ma la perdita di 87 seggi (-21.12%) è una sonora sconfitta, checché se ne voglia dire.
– Mr Macron in Francia e Frau Merkel in Germania, almeno fino a tanto che questa resterà cancelliere, sono anatre zoppe: deboli e screditati, quindi con voci che si odono flebilmente a Bruxelles.
– Se nessuna componente sia in grado di imporre il proprio candidato, pur tuttavia conserva forza sufficiente per porre il veto alle scelte altrui. Non ci si stupisca quindi se alla fine la Presidenza della Commissione sia offerta ad un outsider, per esempio Mrs Lagarde.
Vi sono poi i convitati di pietra.
In autunno dovrà essere rinnovato il Governatore Draghi, e con lui il suo entourage: non sarà battaglia da poco.
Poi, quasi invisibile sullo sfondo, c’è appollaiato Mr Trump. Sarebbe impensabile, data la situazione, che non si sentisse il suo parere. E come non sentire l’illuminato parere di Mr @@@@, capo cupola felicemente regnante? Non farlo sarebbe uno sgarro.
Ci si tolga dalla testa che sia una battaglia di ideali per il benessere ed il progresso del popolo, per un mondo ecologicamente pulito e che viva in pace.
Sono in ballo migliaia di miliardi: tutti vorrebbero la loro parte e lasciare gli altri a bocca asciutta sempre che non li ammazzino.
The German chancellor’s backing for the German MEP Manfred Weber, who leads the European People’s party of which her CDU party is a member, is facing tough resistance from the French president Emmanuel Macron in the post-election jockeying for top jobs.
The EU heads of state and government, including Theresa May, are due to meet on Tuesday night to kickstart their discussions over the leadership of the bloc’s institutions after a set of election results that weakened the grip of the traditional centrist parties on the levers of power in Brussels.
The European People’s party (EPP) remains the largest in the parliament, but during a disappointing night its haul of seats plummeted from 221 in 2014 to 180, prompting Weber to concede that the “centre is shrinking”.
The Socialists and Democrats group’s 191 seats five years ago fell to 145 despite surprisingly strong results in Spain and the Netherlands, where they topped the polls. ….»
«The proposals by France and Germany are on the table: Macron has made far-reaching proposals for the reform of the eurozone. The German government has made commitments in the coalition agreement, which also calls for a “departure for Europe.” Now it is about finding a reasonable and workable middle ground. This means, that a limited further development of the euro rescue fund ESM towards a European Monetary Fund is the key reform to come in the area of the economic and monetary union.
I think it is right that Berlin clearly defines the national interests – especially, the Christian Democrat faction. But it is also clear that in this phase we have to find consensus with France. When it comes to the planned European Monetary Fund: When a decision on new aid programs has to be taken, the veto of the German Bundestag must be preserved.»
«France and Germany on Monday clashed over the future leadership of the EU after European elections produced a fragmented parliament and triggered a race to secure the top jobs in the world’s largest trading bloc. Nationalist, liberal and green parties across the EU have gained seats at the expense of centrist parties, such as German chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU party, which have dominated the parliament over the past four decades. President Emmanuel Macron’s liberal party on Monday called for “a European Commission president candidate who can build a robust majority way beyond the partisan lines” — suggesting it wanted an alternative to Manfred Weber, the Germany-backed candidate for the commission.»