Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
2022-07-09.
Alla fine si sente parlare con sempre più insistenza di ‘default’.
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La minaccia del gas russo spinge i banchieri tedeschi a temere il default.
Le banche tedesche sarebbero costrette a mettere da parte fondi extra per coprire un potenziale picco di insolvenze se il Paese dovesse essere tagliato fuori dal gas russo.
Lo scenario porterebbe a una recessione nella più grande economia europea e richiederebbe agli istituti di credito di sostenere i prestiti alle imprese con più capitale.
Gli istituti di credito sono particolarmente preoccupati per i lavori di manutenzione programmati sul principale gasdotto che collega la Germania alla Russia, poiché esiste la possibilità che le forniture non riprendano come prima una volta terminati i lavori.
Il gasdotto dovrebbe essere chiuso tra l’11 e il 21 luglio per manutenzione.
Gli accantonamenti delle banche tedesche per le potenziali conseguenze economiche derivanti dalla guerra in Ucraina sono stati finora inferiori alle ingenti riserve costituite al culmine della pandemia.
Ma il Paese dipende in larga misura dalle continue importazioni di gas dalla Russia, e una perdita completa dell’accesso alle forniture energetiche assesterebbe un duro colpo all’economia.
Un evento del genere costringerebbe a una profonda recessione.
L’economia tedesca rischia un crollo del 12.7% se la Russia interrompe le forniture di gas.
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«Russian gas threat has german bankers fearing default»
«Germany’s banks would be forced to put extra funds aside to cover a potential spike in defaults if the country were to get cut off from Russian gas»
«The scenario would lead to a recession in Europe’s largest economy and require lenders to back up corporate loans with more capital»
«Lenders are particularly concerned about planned maintenance work on the main gas pipeline connecting Germany with Russia as there is a chance that supplies won’t resume as before once the work is completed»
«The pipeline is slated to be shut down between July 11 and 21 for maintenance»
«German banks’ provisions for the potential economic consequences emanating from the war on Ukraine have so far been lower than the large reserves they built at the height of the pandemic»
«But the country is heavily reliant on continuing gas imports from Russia, and a complete loss of access to the energy supply would deal a heavy blow to the economy»
«such an event would force a deep recession»
«German economy faces 12.7% slump if Russia stops gas supply»
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Russian Gas Threat Has German Bankers Fearing Default Spike
Germany’s banks would be forced to put extra funds aside to cover a potential spike in defaults if the country were to get cut off from Russian gas, several senior bankers said.
The scenario would lead to a recession in Europe’s largest economy and require lenders to back up corporate loans with more capital, BNP Paribas Germany head Lutz Diederichs said Monday at a conference in Frankfurt. He echoed comments made by Commerzbank Chief Financial Officer Bettina Orlopp published over the weekend in an interview with the weekly Focus Money.
Lenders are particularly concerned about planned maintenance work on the main gas pipeline connecting Germany with Russia as there is a chance that supplies won’t resume as before once the work is completed, said two top bankers who asked not to be named discussing the deliberations. The pipeline is slated to be shut down between July 11 and 21 for maintenance.
German banks’ provisions for the potential economic consequences emanating from the war on Ukraine have so far been lower than the large reserves they built at the height of the pandemic. But the country is heavily reliant on continuing gas imports from Russia, and a complete loss of access to the energy supply would deal a heavy blow to the economy.
Deutsche Bank Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing said such an event would force “a deep recession,” at the same event on Wednesday.
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Read More on the Consequences of a Gas Stop
Germany Fears Russia Could Permanently Close Main Gas Pipeline
German Economy Faces 12.7% Slump If Russia Stops Gas Supply
ECB to Ask Banks to Weigh Russian Gas Embargo in Dividend Plans
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