Pubblicato in: Cina, Logistica

Indocina. La ferrovia Kunming – Bangkok sarà inaugurata a dicembre.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-23.

Ferrovia Kunming - Bangkok 001

Basta dare una rapida occhiata alla cartina per comprendere quanto la linea ferroviaria ad alta velocità Kunming – Bangkok sia strategicamente importante. Collegando il porto di Bangkok alla Cina consente di avviare le merci cinesi saltando il periplo dell’Indocina.

* * * * * * *

«The Boten–Vientiane railway (often referred to as the China–Laos railway) is a 414 kilometres (257 mi) 1,435 mm (4 ft 8+1⁄2 in) standard gauge electrified railway under construction in Laos, between the capital Vientiane and the small town of Boten on the border with China. It is the most expensive and largest project ever to be constructed in Laos.

In the north the line will be connected to the Chinese rail system in Mohan, through the Yuxi–Mohan railway. In the south it meets the existing metre-gauge railway in Thanaleng, linking it via Nong Khai in Thailand to Bangkok. A high-speed, standard gauge extension to Bangkok is also under construction. When finished, the Boten–Vientiane railway will form an important part of the Kunming–Singapore railway.

China aims to build a 5,500-km trans-Asia railway, which begins in Yunnan’s provincial capital Kunming and travels through Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia, before ending in Singapore, according to Ding He, a deputy project manager for the China–Laos railway project. The Boten–Vientiane railway is part of the Belt and Road Initiative.» [Fonte]

* * *

«It will be on December 2 when we are to complete the railway construction and make it ready for full operation»

«In the southern end of the railway in Vientiane, the China Railway No. 5 Engineering Group (CREC-5) has completed the construction of the main structure of the longest bridge along the China-Laos Railway, the Phonethong super major bridge with a length of 7,528.56 meters and 231 piers»

«an operating speed of 160 km per hour.» [Fonte]

* * *


All China-Laos Railway stations in Laos conclude debut shows

All the 10 China-Laos railway stations in Laos have concluded their debut shows, the Laos-China Railway Co., Ltd. (LCRC) told Xinhua on Friday.

According to the LCRC, a joint venture based in Lao capital Vientiane in charge of the construction and operation of the railway, the last station in Luang Prabang, some 220 km north of Vientiane, built by China Railway Construction Group Co., Ltd. (CRCG), completed its outer facade decoration on Wednesday.

The Luang Prabang Station, the second largest station after the Vientiane Station, consists of two platforms with four track lines.

With abundant experiences of station construction in China, the CRCG engineers combined the classic Chinese architecture’s door style with elements of Lao national flower of Dok Champa in the design and building of the station’s door posts, door beams and facade, reflecting the aesthetic culture of the two countries.

The China-Laos Railway is a docking project between China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Laos’ strategy to convert itself from a landlocked country to a land-linked hub.

The electrified passenger and cargo railway is built with the full application of Chinese management and technical standards. The construction of the project started in December 2016 and is scheduled to be completed and open to traffic in December 2021. Enditem

* * * * * * *

Il su citato articolo riporta le fotografie delle nuove stazioni, che si presentano funzionali ed estetiche.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio

Cina. Con gennaio entra in vigore il Rcep, il più grande mercato libero mondiale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-10.

Rcep 001

Rcep, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, indica una zona di libero scambio tra 15 paesi asiatici bagnati dall’Oceano Pacifico, più Australia e Nuova Zelanda. È un conglomerato che assomma circa un terzo della popolazione mondiale e poco più di un terzo del pil mondiale.

Adesso siamo solo agli inizi, ma a breve la zona geoeconomica dell’Asia oceanica assurgerà al ruolo di polo principale del mondo.

La prima cosa che salta immediatamente agli occhi è l’assenza dal Rcep degli Stati Uniti, anche se molti paesi entrati nel Rcep avevano consistenti rapporti con l’America. È nella logica delle cose che con il tempo questi quindici paesi rinsaldino i reciproci rapporti commerciali, ai quali seguirà per forza di cose anche un aggrado politico. Sarà un processo lento e graduale dal quale gli Stati Uniti saranno esclusi.

Per seconda cosa, gli Stati Uniti dovranno usare molta diplomazia, arte nella quale non brillano, nel trattare con gli stati del Rcep, per non far precipitare gli eventi e perderli in modo definitivo. Ci si ricordi che gli americani hanno il vizietto di voler fare la morale a tutto il mondo, ed il mondo non ne può di più.

La terza cosa, da ultima ma non per ultima, gli Stati Uniti non sono stati ammessi nel Rcep. Ne sono tagliati fuori.

* * * * * * *

Giappone. Il Parlamento ha ratificato l’adesione al Rcep. – Capolavoro diplomatico.

Cina. Rcep. Non enfatizzato, il vero obiettivo è il controllo del mondo.

Asia. Firmato l’Accordo Rcep. Nasce il più grande mercato libero mondiale.

* * * * * * *


World’s largest trade deal will come into force in January. The U.S. won’t be part of it.

– The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership or RCEP will come into force in January 2022.

– Australia and New Zealand were the latest to ratify the world’s largest trade agreement.

– Other countries that have ratified RCEP include Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, China and Japan, according to Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

*

The world’s largest trade deal — which includes China and excludes the U.S. — will come into force in January next year.

It comes as Australia and New Zealand announced they have ratified the agreement.

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership or RCEP was signed last year by 15 Asia-Pacific countries. The countries are the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and five of their largest trading partners China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

Australia said in a statement on Tuesday that its ratification — together with New Zealand’s — paved the way for the deal to enter into force on Jan. 1, 2022, and allowed RCEP to reach a “milestone.”

New Zealand confirmed its ratification in a separate statement on Wednesday.

RCEP will be in force 60 days after a minimum of six ASEAN members and three non-ASEAN signatories ratify the agreement.

ASEAN countries that have ratified the deal so far are Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, according to the website of Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. In addition to Australia and New Zealand, other countries outside ASEAN that have also ratified RCEP are China and Japan.

RCEP covers a market of 2.2 billion people and $26.2 trillion of global output. The partnership will create a trade grouping that covers about 30% of the world’s population, as well as the global economy.

It is also larger than other regional trading blocs such as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and the European Union.

Analysts have said that economic benefits of RCEP are modest and would take years to materialize.

Still, the deal was widely seen as a geopolitical victory for China at a time when U.S. economic influence in Asia-Pacific has waned.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio

Laos. Ferrovia Boten–Vientiane (China–Laos railway) quasi terminata.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-13

Laos-China Railway

«The Boten–Vientiane railway (often referred to as the China–Laos railway) is a 414 kilometres (257 mi) 1,435 mm (4 ft 8+1⁄2 in) standard gauge electrified railway under construction in Laos, between the capital Vientiane and the small town of Boten on the border with China. It is the most expensive and largest project ever to be constructed in Laos.

In the north the line will be connected to the Chinese rail system in Mohan, through the Yuxi–Mohan railway. In the south it meets the existing metre-gauge railway in Thanaleng, linking it via Nong Khai in Thailand to Bangkok. A high-speed, standard gauge extension to Bangkok is also under construction. When finished, the Boten–Vientiane railway will form an important part of the Kunming–Singapore railway.

China aims to build a 5,500-km trans-Asia railway, which begins in Yunnan’s provincial capital Kunming and travels through Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia, before ending in Singapore, according to Ding He, a deputy project manager for the China–Laos railway project. The Boten–Vientiane railway is part of the Belt and Road Initiative.» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

«Despite the impact from the COVID-19 pandemic, both Chinese and Lao engineers are striving to complete the construction of the China-Laos Railway and put it on operation in the coming December as scheduled»

«It will be on December 2 when we are to complete the railway construction and make it ready for full operation»

«In the southern end of the railway in Vientiane, the China Railway No. 5 Engineering Group (CREC-5) has completed the construction of the main structure of the longest bridge along the China-Laos Railway, the Phonethong super major bridge with a length of 7,528.56 meters and 231 piers»

«In the northern end of the railway, the China Railway Construction Engineering Group (CRCEG) roofed the Lao border gate station in Boten On June 15, while the same Chinese company ceiled the top of the first railway station in Nateuy, some 360 km north of Lao capital Vientiane, nine months ago on Sept. 16, 2020»

«There is a Chinese saying ‘to get rich, build roads first»

«In the past two years, the cooperation between Laos and China has been outstanding. Especially, the first modern Vientiane-Vangvieng Expressway»

«an operating speed of 160 km per hour.»

* * * * * * *

Caratteristica del progetto Belt and Road è quello di dotare il sud-est asiatico di una rete ferroviaria ed autostradale allo stato dell’arte. Senza un sistema coordinato di rete ferroviaria ed autostradale sarebbe impossibile lo scambio di merci ed i viaggi delle persone.

Non solo.

La China–Laos railway si prolungherà fino in Thailandia, servendo Nakhon Ratchasima ed, infine, Bangkok ed il suo porto, i cui traffici sono quindi previsti in forte aumento. Le infrastrutture generano posti di lavoro.

*


Roundup: Construction progress of China-Laos Railway on schedule despite pandemic

VIENTIANE, June 25 (Xinhua) — Despite the impact from the COVID-19 pandemic, both Chinese and Lao engineers are striving to complete the construction of the China-Laos Railway and put it on operation in the coming December as scheduled.

“It will be on December 2 when we are to complete the railway construction and make it ready for full operation,” Xiao Qianwen, general manager of the Laos-China Railway Co., Ltd., a joint venture based in Lao capital Vientiane for the construction and operation of the first modern railway in the country, told Xinhua on Friday.

“We are not changing the timetable and we are striving for that goal, with over 90 percent of the engineering work done, and our preparation for the operation is well on the way.”

In the southern end of the railway in Vientiane, the China Railway No. 5 Engineering Group (CREC-5) has completed the construction of the main structure of the longest bridge along the China-Laos Railway, the Phonethong super major bridge with a length of 7,528.56 meters and 231 piers.

In the northern end of the railway, the China Railway Construction Engineering Group (CRCEG) roofed the Lao border gate station in Boten On June 15, while the same Chinese company ceiled the top of the first railway station in Nateuy, some 360 km north of Lao capital Vientiane, nine months ago on Sept. 16, 2020.

By May 15, the construction of all 67 communication towers along the China-Laos railway had completed, while the China-Laos railway tracks had been extended from Vientiane to the northern end of Boten.

“We will installed all the tracks by mid-August,” Lei Chao, a China Railway No. 2 Engineering Group (CREC-2) railing base project manager, told Xinhua on Friday in Vientiane.

Lei said the CREC-2 teams are carry out strict precaution measures against the COVID-19 pandemic as to achieve uninterrupted construction of the project with zero infection case. The company kicked off the track laying on March 27, 2020.

According to Xiao Qianwen, most of the construction sites are located in tropical mountainous areas, with complex geographical conditions and poor traffic conditions, resulting in difficulties for the construction.

Especially during the rainy season, the machinery can not get access to the construction sites and sometimes the Chinese engineering teams even have to turn to the piggyback transportation to carry large amounts of the needed materials and equipment.

The China-Laos Railway’s construction has been confronted with huge challenges and difficulties during the pandemic, but the construction progress in an orderly and balanced manner has boosted the confidence in the timely completion of the railway in this December, Bounthong Chitmany, vice president of Laos, said when talking to Xiao Qianwen in the Lao presidential palace on June 15.

On June 10, when inspecting the Vientiane railway station’s construction, Lao Deputy Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone praised the Chinese engineering company there which hired some 700 local employees, hoping the railway will offer more jobs to local communities.

The deputy prime minister, on behalf of the Lao government, hailed and progresses and achievements of the China-Laos Railway construction amid the epidemic, saying that the railway is a landmark project of the friendship between Laos and China and its completion coincides with the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Laos, which is of great significance.

Both sides must cooperate to efficiently advance the remaining work, complete the construction and start the operation on schedule, and live up to the ardent expectations of the two parties and the two peoples, said Sonexay.

“The COVID-19 pandemic has brought many difficulties to the Lao people, and thus, I especially expect the railway to be open to traffic this year, which is something the Lao people have been dreaming for a long time,” said Somphone Inleuangsy, aged 24, from Luang Namtha, a mountainous province in northern Laos that borders China. He is currently receiving training at the CREC-2 railing base on the northern outskirts of Vientiane.

She told Xinhua “There is a Chinese saying ‘to get rich, build roads first,’ and I hope Laos, with the Laos-China railway, will become prosperous soon. I also hope Laos will become a transportation hub in Southeast Asia to drive the development in the region.”

“As a female, among all over 600 trainees of the China-Laos Railway, I feel very honored and proud. I hope that I can become a formal railway employee after the training, and I hope my parents can see how I drive a train,” Somphone said. “I also hope that with the opening of the China-Laos railway, more Chinese friends can come to help the development here.”

At present, a total of 636 Lao youngsters are trained for the future operation of China-Laos Railway, working as train drivers, equipment and infrastructure maintenance personnel.

“In the past two years, the cooperation between Laos and China has been outstanding. Especially, the first modern Vientiane-Vangvieng Expressway in Laos has been put into operation through cooperation, and the high-speed Laos-China Railway will be completed by the end of this year,” said Valy Vetsaphong, Lao Prime Minister’s advisor and vice president of the Lao National Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

“This is due to the policy coordination between the two countries, and the dovetail between Laos’ strategy to convert from a landlocked country to a land-linked hub and China’s Belt and Road Initiative.”

Valy told Xinhua “The Laos-China Railway will lay a new foundation for the introduction of foreign investment, and Laos will surely take the advantage to participate in the regional and global industrial chain. In other words, the China-Laos Railway will not only promote bilateral trade, investment and people-to-people exchanges, but also benefit the countries to be connected. I believe that the completion and operation of the Laos-China railway will promote the post-pandemic recovery of neighboring countries and the whole region.”

The over 400 km railway will run from Boten border gate in northern Laos bordering China to Vientiane with an operating speed of 160 km per hour.

The electrified passenger and cargo railway is built with the full application of the Chinese management and technical standards. The construction of the project started in December 2016 and is scheduled to be completed and open to traffic in December 2021. Enditem

Pubblicato in: Cina, Diplomazia

Giappone. Il Parlamento ha ratificato l’adesione al Rcep. – Capolavoro diplomatico.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-03.

Rcep Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership 013

Rcep, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, indica una zona di libero scambio tra 15 paesi asiatici bagnati dall’Oceano Pacifico, più Australia e Nuova Zelanda. È un conglomerato che assomma circa un terzo della popolazione mondiale e poco più di un terzo del pil mondiale.

Adesso siamo solo agli inizi, ma a breve la zona geoeconomica dell’Asia oceanica assurgerà al ruolo di polo principale del mondo.

* * * * * * *

«The Diet on Wednesday approved the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership free trade deal among 15 Asian and Oceanian countries»

«Under the deal, which will create a huge free trade area accounting for some 30% of global gross domestic product and trade, tariffs will be abolished for 91% of products, mainly industrial items»

«RCEP groups the 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations — Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam — plus Japan, China, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand»

«India was one of the founding members but skipped all negotiations from November 2019 due to concerns that its trade deficit with China would grow»

«The free trade deal is a wide-ranging agreement calling for abolishing tariffs on industrial goods, including automobiles, and agricultural products, and writing new rules for e-commerce and intellectual property protection»

«Japan managed to have five agricultural product categories considered sensitive for the country — rice, wheat, beef and pork, dairy products and sugar — exempted from tariff cuts»

«Over some 20 years, the proportion of industrial products exempted from tariffs will rise from 8% to 86% for China and from 19% to 92% for South Korea»

* * * * * * *

«15-nation partnership is expected to cover nearly one-third of the world’s economy, trade and population and to come into effect from early 2022»

«By eliminating tariffs on 91 per cent of goods, the RCEP will create a free-trade zone covering nearly one-third of the world’s economy, trade and population»

«Japan is the second-biggest regional economy outside Asean to give its formal support to the deal»

«Thailand and Singapore have also ratified the agreement»

«India was one of the founding RCEP members but skipped all negotiations from November 2019 because of concern that its trade deficit with China would grow.»

* * * * * * *

La prima cosa che salta immediatamente agli occhi è l’assenza dal Rcep degli Stati Uniti, anche se molti paesi entrati nel Rcep avevano consistenti rapporti con l’America. È nella logica delle cose che con il tempo questi quindici paesi rinsaldino i reciproci rapporti commerciali, ai quali seguirà per forza di cose anche un aggrado politico. Sarà un processo lento e graduale dal quale gli Stati Uniti saranno esclusi.

Per seconda cosa, gli Stati Uniti dovranno usare molta diplomazia, arte nella quale non brillano, nel trattare con gli stati del Rcep, per non far precipitare gli eventi e perderli in modo definitivo. Ci si ricordi che gli americani hanno il vizietto di voler fare la morale a tutto il mondo, ed il mondo non ne può di più.

*

La geopolitica e la geoeconomia del sud est asiatico è mutata.

*

Japan approves far-reaching RCEP free trade deal.

The Diet on Wednesday approved the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership free trade deal among 15 Asian and Oceanian countries.

The RCEP deal was approved at a plenary meeting of the House of Councillors, the upper chamber of the Diet. The House of Representatives, the lower chamber, gave its approval earlier this month.

Under the deal, which will create a huge free trade area accounting for some 30% of global gross domestic product and trade, tariffs will be abolished for 91% of products, mainly industrial items.

RCEP groups the 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations — Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam — plus Japan, China, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

India was one of the founding members but skipped all negotiations from November 2019 due to concerns that its trade deficit with China would grow.

The deal will be Japan’s first economic partnership agreement involving China or South Korea.

The pact will come into force after necessary domestic procedures are completed in at least six of the ASEAN member states and three other countries.

The free trade deal is a wide-ranging agreement calling for abolishing tariffs on industrial goods, including automobiles, and agricultural products, and writing new rules for e-commerce and intellectual property protection.

Japan managed to have five agricultural product categories considered sensitive for the country — rice, wheat, beef and pork, dairy products and sugar — exempted from tariff cuts.

Under the deal, food tariffs will be eliminated gradually, including China’s tariffs on scallops and Indonesia’s tariffs on beef.

Japan will scrap its tariffs on Shaoxing rice wine from China and makgeolli alcoholic drinks from South Korea.

China and South Korea will abolish their tariffs on auto parts in stages. Over some 20 years, the proportion of industrial products exempted from tariffs will rise from 8% to 86% for China and from 19% to 92% for South Korea.

The Japanese government hopes to put the pact into effect as early as possible as it expects the deal to increase the country’s real GDP by 2.7% and create 570,000 jobs.

*


Japan approves world’s biggest free-trade deal after China’s call to boost Asian economy

– 15-nation partnership is expected to cover nearly one-third of the world’s economy, trade and population and to come into effect from early 2022

– Vice-minister of foreign affairs calls for efforts to defend the multilateral trade system and expressed interest in China joining CPTPP

* * *

Japan’s parliament approved joining the world’s largest free-trade deal, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, on Wednesday as signatories aim for it to come into effect from the start of next year.

The approval by Japan’s uper house comes after the lower house gave the green light earlier this month and a day after China called for the deal to be ratified to shore up the economy in the Asia-Pacific.

The China-backed RCEP was signed in November last year and included the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) plus China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. By eliminating tariffs on 91 per cent of goods, the RCEP will create a free-trade zone covering nearly one-third of the world’s economy, trade and population.

It will also be the first deal of its kind involving China, Japan and South Korea, and comes as the three countries struggle to negotiate a trilateral free-trade agreement.

Japan is the second-biggest regional economy outside Asean to give its formal support to the deal.

China ratified the pact in March when the Ministry of Commerce said all members of the RCEP were planning to approve the deal by the end of the year for enforcement from 2022.

Japan’s government said in March that it expected the trade accord to boost the country’s GDP by 2.7 per cent and create 570,000 jobs.

Thailand and Singapore have also ratified the agreement. The deal will go into force 60 days after six of the Asean members and three non-Asean member states ratify it.

At a meeting of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific on Tuesday, China’s vice-minister of foreign affairs Ma Zhaoxu called for efforts to stick to regional economic integration and defend the multilateral trade system.

“China took the lead in the ratification of the RCEP and is ready to push forward with all sides for the early entry into force and implementation,” he said.

Ma also underlined China’s interest in joining the Japan-led Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which is more open and demands higher standards for trade, investment, competition and labour protection than the RCEP.

“We are willing to actively consider joining the CPTPP to inject a new push for the economic integration of the Asia-Pacific region,” he said. 

Wang Huiyao, director of the Beijing-based Centre for China and Globalisation, said the approval by Japan’s parliament sent a signal to the region, especially to Asean, on its support for economic integration despite increasingly complex geopolitical conditions.

“China will welcome the news. It’s a sign of support for regional economic integration. And the Japanese business community is still looking for a chance to cooperate with China, even though we don’t have a free-trade deal with Japan or a trilateral one with South Korea and Japan,” Wang said.

China is aiming to forge “high-standard” free-trade agreements with more partners in the next five years as well as closer cooperation along the industrial chain in the region, including in South Korea and Japan.

Wang Shouwen, China’s vice-minister of commerce, said in March that upon the enforcement of the RCEP, China would strive to speed up talks on the trilateral free-trade agreement.

Liu Jiangyong, an international relations professor at Tsinghua University, said enforcement of the RCEP would ease the way for China’s agricultural exports to Japan and reduce trade barriers to economic integration.

He also said the approval was a matter of procedure and much would depend on progress in the trilateral deal talks.

“Political tensions are expected to be a big restraint on forging the trilateral free-trade deal,” he said.

India was one of the founding RCEP members but skipped all negotiations from November 2019 because of concern that its trade deficit with China would grow.

In June last year, researchers at the Peterson Institute for International Economics found that the RCEP, which took seven years to negotiate, would add 0.4 per cent to China’s real income by 2030, while the trade war with the United States would trim 1.1 per cent, should hostilities at the time persist.

However, a study conducted in 2019 by researchers at the University of Queensland and the Indonesian Ministry of Finance found the RCEP would add just 0.08 per cent to China’s economy by 2030. Over the same period, the trade war with the US would slice 0.32 per cent from its GDP.

Researchers at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences were slightly more bullish on the prospects of the RCEP for China’s economy, estimating that over 10 years it would add 0.22 per cent to real GDP growth and 11.4 per cent to China’s total exports, should the schedule for trade liberalisation unfold as planned.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Diplomazia, Geopolitica Asiatica

Myanmar. Occasione di accordo politico per l’Asean.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-03-02.

ASEAN–China Free Trade Area. China and ASEAN in blue 001

Asean si auto definisce come ‘One Vision. One Identity. One Community.’

Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar (Burma), Brunei, Cambodia, Laos sono gli stati membri.

«The ASEAN–China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) is a free-trade area among the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the People’s Republic of China.»

«The free trade agreement reduced tariffs on 7,881 product categories, or 90 percent of imported goods, to zero. This reduction took effect in China and the six original members of ASEAN: Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand …. The remaining four countries …. to follow suit»

* * * * * * *

«The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has traditionally had a strict policy of political non-interference in the internal affairs of member states»

«And the association remained true to that principle despite the events of the past five years in member state Myanmar»

«Part of what enabled ASEAN to function as normal regarding Myanmar through the Rohingya crisis was that most of the refugees fleeing the country ended up in Bangladesh, which is not a member of the association»

«Tens of thousands of Rohingya went south by sea, washing up on the shores of Malaysia, Indonesia and other members of the grouping»

«Where the US and the EU have outright condemned the coup and demanded a full reversal of the situation, Indonesia took a more delicate and much more promising approach»

«It called on the military to hold elections later this year, as it promised it would do during the coup, and proposed that the elections be monitored by ASEAN observers»

«This is a wise move for a number of reasons»

«First, the demand goes no further than holding the new military government to its own word»

«Secondly, it gives the military government of Myanmar a way out that does not involve a political concession of having made an error or having done something wrong …. This saves face and that is something that will carry a lot of weight for the generals …. it may shield military leaders from any legal or constitutional liability for having ordered the coup»

«Lastly, this move brings the entire weight of the trading bloc to apply pressure on the military government to leave power in a way that may well prove to be the most effective means to that end, all while nominally maintaining the principle of “non-interference.”»

«It remains to be seen whether this first foray into this area will bear any fruit, but the effort is certainly a noble one and a very well executed one too»

* * * * * * *

Biden orders sanctions on Myanmar generals as key Aung San Suu Kyi aide detained

White House. Executive Order on Blocking Property with Respect to the Situation in Burma

«the military overthrew the democratically elected civilian government of Burma …. undermining the country’s democratic transition and rule of law, constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States.  I hereby declare a national emergency to deal with that threat»

*

Gli Stati Uniti vedono nei fatti accaduti in Myanmar, che loro denominano con l’esonimo Burba, un pericolo imminente e reale alla loro sicurezza nazionale, così grave da dichiarare “a national emergency”. Quanto accaduto mette in crisi la loro ideologia, che evidentemente non fa presa sulle altre nazioni: quindi, sanzioni, come ai bei tempi nei quali gli Stati Uniti contavano ancora qualcosa nel mondo.

Quanto sia differente la risposta dell’Asean è lampante.

Rispetta la sovranità nazionale, non impone alcunché, propone una soluzione che contemperi tutte le esigenze.

Questo è ciò che comunemente è denominato essere la diplomazia. Ossia l’arte del reale non disgiunto dal buon senso.

 *


ASEAN must become political to deal with Myanmar.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has traditionally had a strict policy of political non-interference in the internal affairs of member states. And the association remained true to that principle despite the events of the past five years in member state Myanmar, where the military carried out “clearing operations” against some 1 million civilians belonging to the Rohingya minority. But this will not remain an option for much longer. And the pivot of the transformation will be Myanmar.

Part of what enabled ASEAN to function as normal regarding Myanmar through the Rohingya crisis was that most of the refugees fleeing the country ended up in Bangladesh, which is not a member of the association. But that has not been universally the case. Tens of thousands of Rohingya went south by sea, washing up on the shores of Malaysia, Indonesia and other members of the grouping. Concerns about what is happening in Myanmar had been raised within ASEAN forums by Malaysia and Indonesia, but these efforts were resisted. Now Indonesia is paving the way for a new approach, prompted above all by the recent coup d’etat carried out by the military in Naypyidaw.

Where the US and the EU have outright condemned the coup and demanded a full reversal of the situation, Indonesia took a more delicate and much more promising approach. It called on the military to hold elections later this year, as it promised it would do during the coup, and proposed that the elections be monitored by ASEAN observers.

This is a wise move for a number of reasons. First, the demand goes no further than holding the new military government to its own word. The motivation the military cited for the coup was “electoral irregularities” in the polls last year and its claim was that all it wanted was a “fair” re-run of the election. The presence of ASEAN observers would do much to guarantee a more fair election than one run entirely by the military itself. As such, the move could even fly under the threshold of “political interference” in the internal affairs of Myanmar, either by Indonesia or by ASEAN

Secondly, it gives the military government of Myanmar a way out that does not involve a political concession of having made an error or having done something wrong. This makes it much more likely that it would allow this to happen, as opposed to the explicit demands coming from the West that it should not be in power. This saves face and that is something that will carry a lot of weight for the generals. But, perhaps even more importantly, it may shield military leaders from any legal or constitutional liability for having ordered the coup in the first place. They would thus be allowed to walk away from the path of direct military government in Naypyidaw in a way that means they would not immediately face prison as soon as they yielded power to a civilian government.

Lastly, this move brings the entire weight of the trading bloc to apply pressure on the military government to leave power in a way that may well prove to be the most effective means to that end, all while nominally maintaining the principle of “non-interference.”

Of course, this will in practice be interference: Everyone knows that elections would overwhelmingly return support for parties opposed to the military and its powerbase, primarily the National League for Democracy (NLD) of Aung San Suu Kyi — especially if the elections are allowed to be overseen by ASEAN observers. So for Indonesia and ASEAN to call for a fair election is in effect for them to call for an NLD government; and so ASEAN will have become politicized and a force for democracy in Southeast Asia. And that’s no bad thing.

In time, the institution will likely come to acknowledge this explicitly and even embrace this new political role. It remains to be seen whether this first foray into this area will bear any fruit, but the effort is certainly a noble one and a very well executed one too.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Singapore. Gennaio. Produzione Industriale (Annuale) +8.6%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-02-27.

2021-02-27__ Singapore Produzione 001

Statistics Singapore ha rilasciato il report Produzione Industriale (Annuale) per gennaio 2021.

2021-02-27__ Singapore Produzione 002

2021-02-27__ Singapore Produzione 003

2021-02-27__ Singapore Produzione 004

Come si constata, l’export verso i paesi occidentali od occidentalizzati segna profonde contrazioni, mentre quello verso i paesi del Rcep cresce in modo vistoso. I primi sono in recessione ed i secondi in crescita.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Mondo. 2020. GDP PPP aggiornato al 2020Q4 annualizzato. Sorprese.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-02-24.

2021-02-23__ Gdp Momdo PPP 001

Statistics Times ha rilasciato il report Projected GDP Ranking

A quanto ci risulterebbe, questi sarebbero i primi dati ottenuti da una stima del 2020Q4 annualizzata.

Come tutte le stime, anche questi conti si fondano su alcune ipotesi, specialmente che l’annualizzazione del Q4 rappresenti significativamente il pil annuale. Ma nel corso di andamenti tumultuosi, questa ipotesi decade.

In ogni caso, visto che non c’è altro, accontentiamoci di queste stime, peraltro ragionevolmente aderenti la realtà.

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Il PIL PPP mondiale valeva 134,557 miliardi Usd, e nel 2020 sarebbe sceso a 130,187 miliardi, -4.86%.

La Cina consoliderebbe il suo primato con una salita dai 23,393 miliardi Usd  Int del 2019 ai 24,162.44 del 2020. Sarebbe una delle poche nazioni ad essere cresciuta nel 2020, nonostante il Covid-19.

Al contrario, tutti i paesi occidentali od occidentalizzati accusano severi decrementi.

Il problema sta nei governi.

Nota.

Si faccia caso come Formosa sia denominata nella Tabella come ‘Taiwan Province of China’. I tempi scorrono velocissimi.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Geopolitica Asiatica

Malaysia. Pil 2021 proiettato tra il +6.7% ed il +9%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-02-18.

Malesia, Indonesia, Stretto di Malacca 001

Cina. Rcep. Non enfatizzato, il vero obiettivo è il controllo del mondo.

Asia. Firmato l’Accordo Rcep. Nasce il più grande mercato libero mondiale.

«The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement in the Asia-Pacific region between the ten member states of ASEAN, namely Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, and five of their FTA partners—Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea. The 15 negotiating countries account for about 30% of both the world’s population and the global GDP, making it the largest trade bloc. It was signed at the Vietnam-hosted virtual ASEAN Summit on 15 November 2020. ….

ASEAN leaders stated that the door remained open for India, which opted out in November 2019, to join later. ….

RCEP potentially includes more than 3 billion people or 45% of the world’s population, and a combined GDP of about $21.3 trillion, accounting for about 40 percent of world trade ….» [Fonte]

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Porsche to set up assembly plant in Malaysia: The Edge

«the United States …. is losing in influence»

«a community of sovereign nations».

Il 2020 ha visto una modesta contrazione del pil della Malaysia, ma tutti gli analisi concordano nell’affermare che esso dovrebbe salire molto bene nel 2021.

«The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting Malaysia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at a rate of 9%»

«HSBC Holdings plc co-head of Asian economics research Frederic Neumann forecast Malaysia’s economy to grow at 6.7% this year»

La Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) è stata una delle opere magistrali di Mr Xi. 15 paesi del sud-est asiatico posti ai bordi dell’Oceano Indiano che formano una zona di libero scambio per il 45% della popolazione mondiale, che produce 21.3 trilioni di Usd come pil.

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IMF Expects Malaysia’s GDP Growth to Bounce Back to 9% in 2021

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting Malaysia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at a rate of 9% next year, the fastest among the five major developing economies in ASEAN. The ASEAN-5 – namely Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam – is expected to witness an average GDP growth of 7.8% during 2021, following a contraction of 0.68% during 2020. Malaysia’s economy is forecast to contract by 1.7% during 2020.

The IMF’s 2021 projection for Malaysia is much higher than Fitch Ratings’ growth forecast of 5.8%, and the body has cautioned for extreme uncertainty around its global growth forecast as the world is battered by the global COVID-19 pandemic and oil price crisis.

IMF has also forecast a global GDP growth of 5.8% for 2021, in contrast to 3% contraction for 2020. IMF cautiously anticipates that consumer confidence and sentiment will turn positive by 2021 and Malaysian households will remain financially sound, with better employment conditions and stable incomes during global and domestic economies recovery period. In terms of economic fundamentals, IMF expects Malaysia to continue to grow, supported by the government’s fiscal discipline and fiscal consolidation, a sustainable current account surplus, healthy foreign-exchange reserves as well as manageable inflationary pressure.

Nevertheless, Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd stated that no emerging markets, including Malaysia, can escape the downside risks of global recession in 2020, as advanced economies fall into recession. As of now, sovereign rating agencies would continue to monitor Malaysia’s macroeconomic developments, focusing on its economic growth, fiscal deficit and government debt, from the impact of COVID-19 and low global oil price.

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HSBC forecasts 6% GDP growth in 2021 for Malaysia, ringgit to hit 3.96 by year-end

The reintroduction of the Movement Control Order (MCO) across major states in Malaysia is expected to pose some challenges to economic activity early in 2021, though experts anticipate the effects to gradually disappear as the year unfolds.

HSBC Holdings plc co-head of Asian economics research Frederic Neumann forecast Malaysia’s economy to grow at 6.7% this year, following an estimated contraction of 5.4% last year.

“The MCO 2.0 in place poses economic challenges in the beginning of the year, but we are quite confident that these economic effects will dissipate quickly over the course of this year, allowing Malaysia’s economy to achieve 6.7% growth,” he said at a press briefing on HSBC’s Asian Outlook for 2021.

HSBC expects another policy rate cut by Bank Negara Malaysia due to the lockdown and its economic impact at the beginning of the year.

From a regional perspective, Neumann expects South-East Asia to register strong growth from the second quarter onwards as the roll-out of vaccines in the region may take longer than some developed markets, which may impede recovery in sectors like tourism.

“There are downside risks if the vaccination programmes are not handled on time, but we think the risk is relatively low. “We look forward to a reasonable normalisation of domestic activity starting in the second half of the year, which is slightly delayed from the normalisation in developed parts of Asia like North-East Asia, Australia and New Zealand, but we think it is coming through,” he added.

On the ringgit, HSBC global head of foreign-exchange research Paul Mackel forecasts the local note to strengthen and trade at RM3.96 against the US dollar by year-end.

He expects the headwinds that are working against the ringgit currently to ease throughout the year, with higher commodity prices supporting the currency further.

“We deem it to be a relatively undervalued currency and that should help bolster the case for the ringgit to appreciate. Perhaps, there may even be some silver lining at some point with regard to the tourism angle as well,” he said.

Mackel expects Asian currencies to be resilient this year as a “benign” US dollar would help alleviate currencies in the region.

HSBC’s preference leans more towards emerging-market (EM) currencies, with the ringgit, Singapore dollar and the Philippines peso likely to stand out this year.

On the equity market, HSBC head of equity strategy for Asia Pacific Herald van der Linde pro- jects the benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI to edge towards 1,780 points by year-end.

He said Malaysia is typically considered to be a “defensive” market due to the good domestic demand for its equities and little volatility in valuation.

“That has changed to a certain extent because you have glove makers who have done phenomenally well.

“It was not a surprise for Malaysia to be the best performing Asean market, which was up 3.6% last year.

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Malaysia. Belt and Roads. La Cina si avvantaggia della desistenza americana.

«The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is one of the largest in scale infrastructure projects in our history, which was proposed by the PRC as far back as 2013»

«Its main aim is to link via roads, railways, deep water ports, wharfs and industrial zones all 5 continents and approximately 130 of the world’s nations, which, on becoming a part of the BRI could promote trade and other activities and thus reap substantial economic benefits»

«The BRI initiative had such a successful start that by 2020, projects worth almost US$4 trillion had already been completed»

«Still, the ambitious nature and global scale of China’s economic expansion caused reservations among some participating countries with low and medium GDPs. On the one hand, these nations viewed the initiative as the only source of funds for financing their own infrastructure projects, and on the other hand, they worried about their growing debts to Beijing»

«the reaction to BRI in countries of South East Asia whose economic ties to China are strengthening with each passing day is noteworthy»

«It is no secret to anyone that some of the biggest projects of China’s global initiative are being implemented in South East Asian countries. In fact, it would suffice to mention the cross-border railway between China and Laos (US$ 6 billion), high speed rail in Indonesia (US$6 billion), the Kyaukpyu deep water port in Myanmar (US$ 7.3 billion) and many others»

«Malaysia is among China’s most important trade partners in South East Asia with the bilateral trade volume of US$124 billion in 2019»

Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

UN. Cina vieta che il Consiglio di Sicurezza condanni il Myanmar.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-02-05.

Myanmar 003

«Myanmar is a country of 54 million people in South East Asia which shares borders with Bangladesh, India, China, Thailand and Laos»

«China’s military wants to strengthen ties with neighboring Myanmar by having more exchanges and greater cooperation»

«the United States …. is losing in influence»

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Myanmar. Segreti di stato e libertà di stampa. Giornalisti condannati.

Cina e Myanmar. Un possibile sbocco sull’Oceano Indiano.

Malaysia. Belt and Roads. La Cina si avvantaggia della desistenza americana.

Asia. Firmato l’Accordo Rcep. Nasce il più grande mercato libero mondiale.

The world’s largest trade deal could be signed in 2020 — and the US isn’t in it

Tramonto non dell’Occidente ma della dottrina illuminista.

Cina. Belt & Road. Testo statutario ufficiale. – Governo Cinese.

Cina. Dopo 30 anni di crescita ambirebbe alla leadership mondiale.

Cinesi, gente pratica. Risolto il problema dell’integralismo islamico.

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I cinesi hanno una tradizione plurimillenaria nel non tirarsi indietro nell’aiutare i paesi amici ed alleati che si trovassero in difficoltà. Sanno più che bene quanto sia importante essere credibili ed il rispetto delle sovranità nazionali.

«China has blocked a UN Security Council statement condemning the military coup in Myanmar»

«The military took power in the South East Asian nation on Monday after arresting political leader Aung San Suu Kyi and hundreds of other lawmakers»

«The United Nations Security Council met on Tuesday but failed to agree on a joint statement after China did not support it»

«China has the power of veto as one of five permanent members of the council»

«In further criticism, the Group of Seven major economic powers said it was “deeply concerned” and called for the return of democracy»

«The G7 comprises Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US»

«China has been warning since the coup that sanctions or international pressure would only make things worse in Myanmar»

«Beijing has long played a role of protecting the country from international scrutiny»

«Alongside Russia, it has repeatedly protected Myanmar from criticism at the UN over the military crackdown on the Muslim minority Rohingya population»

«China does benefit strategically from Myanmar’s alienation from the west»

«China seems to be proceeding as if this is Myanmar’s ‘internal issue’ in which what we are observing is a ‘cabinet reshuffle»

«the United States said it had been unsuccessful in contacting the Myanmar military and has formally declared the takeover to be a coup d’etat»

* * * * * * *

«the United States …. is losing in influence»

Usa. Cber. Previsioni. Marcia trionfale di Cina e Paesi asiatici.

L’enclave occidentale liberal ha perso il controllo del Consiglio di Sicurezza.

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Myanmar coup: China blocks UN condemnation as protest grows.

China has blocked a UN Security Council statement condemning the military coup in Myanmar.

The military took power in the South East Asian nation on Monday after arresting political leader Aung San Suu Kyi and hundreds of other lawmakers.

The coup leaders have since formed a supreme council which will sit above the cabinet.

In Myanmar’s biggest city Yangon though, signs of resistance and civil disobedience have been growing.

Doctors and medical staff in dozens of hospitals across the country are stopping work in protest against the coup and to push for Ms Suu Kyi’s release

The United Nations Security Council met on Tuesday but failed to agree on a joint statement after China did not support it. China has the power of veto as one of five permanent members of the council.

Ahead of the talks, the UN’s Special Envoy on Myanmar, Christine Schraner, strongly condemned the military takeover which came after the army refused to accept the outcome of general elections held in November.

She said it was clear that “the recent outcome of the election was a landslide victory” for Ms Suu Kyi’s party.

In further criticism, the Group of Seven major economic powers said it was “deeply concerned” and called for the return of democracy.

“We call upon the military to immediately end the state of emergency, restore power to the democratically-elected government, to release all those unjustly detained and to respect human rights and the rule of law,” the statement released in London said. The G7 comprises Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US.

Why did China block the UN action?

China has been warning since the coup that sanctions or international pressure would only make things worse in Myanmar.

Beijing has long played a role of protecting the country from international scrutiny. It sees the country as economically important and is one of Myanmar’s closest allies.

Alongside Russia, it has repeatedly protected Myanmar from criticism at the UN over the military crackdown on the Muslim minority Rohingya population.

“Beijing’s stance on the situation is consistent with its overall scepticism of international intervention,” Sebastian Strangio, author and South East Asia editor at The Diplomat, told the BBC.

While China does benefit strategically from Myanmar’s alienation from the west, this does not mean that Beijing is happy with the coup, he cautions.

“They had a pretty good arrangement with the NLD and invested a lot to build a relationship with Aung San Suu Kyi. The return of the military actually means that China now has to deal with the institution in Myanmar that historically is the most suspicious of China’s intentions.”

“Through this foreign policy equivalent of gaslighting, China seems to be signalling its tacit support, if not emphatic endorsement, for the generals’ actions,” Myanmar expert Elliott Prasse-Freeman, of the National University of Singapore, told the BBC.

“China seems to be proceeding as if this is Myanmar’s ‘internal issue’ in which what we are observing is a ‘cabinet reshuffle,’ as China’s state media put it.”

While he thinks a UN statement would not have made an immediate difference, it would still serve as “a first step for cohering an international response. That appears to not be forthcoming”.

Where is Aung San Suu Kyi?

Aung San Suu Kyi, who led the now-ousted elected government, has not been seen since she was detained by the military on Monday morning.

Dozens of others also remain detained, including President Win Myint, members of her party’s central committee and her personal attorney. They are reportedly being held under house arrest.

Her National League for Democracy (NLD) demanded her immediate release on Tuesday. It has also called upon the military to accept the results of the November election, which saw the NLD win more than 80% of the votes.

Meanwhile, the United States said it had been unsuccessful in contacting the Myanmar military and has formally declared the takeover to be a coup d’etat. This means the US cannot directly assist the government, though most of its assistance goes to non-governmental entities.

The EU, UK, Australia and others have also condemned the takeover.

Myanmar, also known as Burma, was ruled by the armed forces until 2011, when a nominally civilian government was sworn in.

What is the situation in Myanmar?

Power has been handed over to commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing. Eleven ministers and deputies, including those in finance, health, the interior and foreign affairs, were replaced.

In the first meeting of his cabinet on Tuesday, Min Aung Hlaing repeated that the takeover had been “inevitable”.

The country was calm in the aftermath of the coup, with troops patrolling all major cities and a night-time curfew in force.

Myanmar has a long history of military rule and many people can still remember the terror of previous coups.

But on Tuesday evening, car horns and the banging of cooking pots could be heard in the streets of Yangon in a sign of protest.

Activist groups have called for civil disobedience campaigns, setting up a Facebook group to organise their efforts.

Staff at 70 hospitals and medical departments across the country have reportedly stepped away from all non-emergency work.

Hundreds of healthcare workers, including senior doctors, have participated in the “Red Ribbon movement”, with many donning a red ribbon on their clothes to show they were against the coup. Online, many changed their social media profile pictures to one of just the colour red.