Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Stati Uniti

Usa. Fed. Dovrebbe annunciare l’inizio del tapering a settembre. Fed officials.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-21.

FED 001

«The Federal Reserve will announce a plan to taper its asset purchases in September»

«a flurry of Fed officials have suggested the U.S. central bank might start reducing its $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) sooner rather than later»

«Nearly two-thirds of respondents, 28 of 43, said the Fed is likely to announce a taper of its asset purchases – currently set at $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of MBS per month – at its September meeting»

«November is possible if the next two employment reports are strong enough, but the odds favor December as the time of the formal announcement»

«Nearly 60% of respondents, 26 of 43, said they expected the Fed to start the reductions of its asset purchases in the first quarter of next year»

«The poll concluded the Fed will start with monthly reductions of $10 billion in its purchases of Treasuries and $5 billion in those of MBS»

«U.S. inflation data for July, which was released this week, suggested to many that price pressures may have already peaked in the world’s biggest economy»

«Still, the core personal consumption expenditure price index was predicted to average 3.1%, 2.5% and 2.1% in 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively, above the central bank’s target of 2%»

«We suspect recovering half of the job losses is sufficient for many on the FOMC to begin tapering, particularly in light of the Committee’s view about upside risks to the inflation outlook»

«Buoyed by around a trillion dollars of fiscal stimulus, ultra-easy monetary policy and a rapid COVID-19 vaccination drive, the U.S. economy surpassed its pre-pandemic level with an annualized 6.5% expansion in gross domestic product last quarter – the fastest recovery in the nation’s history»

«the Senate’s passage of a $1 trillion infrastructure bill on Tuesday and the start of a debate on a separate $3.5 trillion spending blueprint»

* * * * * * *

In questo periodo chiunque si sente autorizzato ad esprimere le proprie previsioni.

Ovviamente, più è alto il ruolo ricoperto, maggiore è la autorevolezza della opinione.

Che il momento del tapering sia vicino è oramai comune sentire, e le riduzioni prospettate sembrerebbero essere ragionevolmente prudenti.

* * * * * * *


Fed to unveil bond-buying taper plan next month; jobless rate to fall slowly

The Federal Reserve will announce a plan to taper its asset purchases in September, according to a solid majority of economists polled by Reuters who also said the U.S. jobless rate would remain above its pre-pandemic level for at least a year.

Since the release last week of a strong U.S. jobs report, which showed an unexpectedly sharp drop in the unemployment rate to 5.4% in July, a flurry of Fed officials have suggested the U.S. central bank might start reducing its $120 billion in monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) sooner rather than later. 

Nearly two-thirds of respondents, 28 of 43, said the Fed is likely to announce a taper of its asset purchases – currently set at $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of MBS per month – at its September meeting.

But while that timing has become more likely in the minds of many Fed watchers over the past month, it is by no means a done deal for all of them.

“I know some Fed officials are pushing for it to happen at the September meeting, but that is very unlikely,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities.

“November is possible if the next two employment reports are strong enough, but the odds favor December as the time of the formal announcement.”

More than one-third of respondents in the poll said the central bank’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will wait until November or December. None of the respondents said it would be announced at the Fed’s central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this month, compared with the more than one-quarter who said in a June poll that it would.

Nearly 60% of respondents, 26 of 43, said they expected the Fed to start the reductions of its asset purchases in the first quarter of next year. Nearly all the rest said it would happen in the fourth quarter of 2021.

The poll concluded the Fed will start with monthly reductions of $10 billion in its purchases of Treasuries and $5 billion in those of MBS. Some responses were as high as $20 billion for both Treasuries and MBS.

More than 80% of respondents, 24 of 29, said they expect the Fed to stop purchasing assets by the end of next year.

JOBLESS RATE TO LAG

U.S. inflation data for July, which was released this week, suggested to many that price pressures may have already peaked in the world’s biggest economy. 

Still, the core personal consumption expenditure price index was predicted to average 3.1%, 2.5% and 2.1% in 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively, above the central bank’s target of 2%.

But the unemployment rate is likely to remain above its pre-pandemic level of 3.5% for at least a year, according to 32 of 37 economists who replied to a separate question.

“We suspect recovering half of the job losses is sufficient for many on the FOMC to begin tapering, particularly in light of the Committee’s view about upside risks to the inflation outlook,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays.

Still, the Fed was expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at near zero at least until 2023.

“Relative to the performance of its economy, the U.S. central bank is the most dovish in the world and is likely to start its hiking cycle a year or so later than normal. Moreover, if growth falters the Fed will simply delay even longer,” said Ethan Harris, global economist at Bank of America Securities.

Buoyed by around a trillion dollars of fiscal stimulus, ultra-easy monetary policy and a rapid COVID-19 vaccination drive, the U.S. economy surpassed its pre-pandemic level with an annualized 6.5% expansion in gross domestic product last quarter – the fastest recovery in the nation’s history. read more

But economic growth is expected to average 6.2% in 2021, a significant downgrade from the 6.6% predicted a month ago, according to the poll, as the rapidly spreading Delta variant has pushed the number of new coronavirus cases to more than a six-month high. read more

The poll showed GDP growth slowing to 4.2% in 2022 and 2.4% in 2023 despite the Senate’s passage of a $1 trillion infrastructure bill on Tuesday and the start of a debate on a separate $3.5 trillion spending blueprint. The infrastructure bill, which has not yet been passed by the U.S. House of Representatives, would be the biggest U.S. investment on roads, airports and waterways in decades.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Fed Dallas. Fed dovrebbe annunciare a settembre il tapering.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-14.

Casa Bianca

I media liberal si son tolti le tonsille a suon di strillare che l’inflazione è minima, transitoria, sotto controllo.

Ma la loro credibilità è nulla: nessuno ritiene che dicano la verità.

La gente che fa la spesa oppure il pieno di benzina se ne rende conto, eccome!

E questa gente andrà poi a votare.

Tra gli addetti ai lavori le preoccupazioni stanno invece salendo a vista di occhio.

La lotta alla inflazione è ben duro cimento per le banche ventrali.

Adesso ha parlato il Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan. Difficile poter salire più in alto.

* * * * * * *

«Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan said Wednesday that the central bank should begin to taper its monthly purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities in October»

«His view that the central bank ought to begin cutting back in two months is perhaps the most ambitious from a Fed president to date»

«I would be in favor of announcing a plan at the September meeting and beginning tapering in October»

«the central bank has each month purchased some $120 billion worth of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities to keep banks and other lender flushed with cash»

«But we don’t have a demand problem in the economy»

«What I don’t want to do is keeping running at this speed for too long and then we’re going to have to take more aggressive action down the road»

«The process of tapering should take about eight months»

«Kaplan is not a 2021 voting member on the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank body in charge of making adjustments to monetary policy»

«His comments to CNBC came just hours after the Labor Department reported that inflation held at multiyear highs in July»

«but too much inflation can suggest that business is overheating»

«The consumer price index, or CPI, rose 5.4% in July from a year earlier»

«Chair Powell and other Fed officials have noted the recent acceleration in prices but believe that the inflation is “transitory” and that prices won’t climb at their current hot pace much longer»

* * * * * * *

Il Dallas Federal Reserve President Mr Robert Kaplan è una delle massime autorità monetarie degli Stati Uniti.

Pigliamo atto di quanto ha detto, ed aspettiamo paziente l’evolversi degli eventi.

*


Fed should announce bond taper in September, begin it in October, says Dallas Fed President Kaplan

– Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said that the central bank should begin to taper its monthly purchases of Treasury bonds in October.

– His view that the Fed ought to begin cutting back on its $120 billion per month purchases is perhaps the most ambitious from a Fed president to date.

– “What I don’t want to do is keeping running at this speed for too long and then we’re going to have to take more aggressive action down the road,” he said.

*

Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan said Wednesday that the central bank should begin to taper its monthly purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities in October.

His view that the central bank ought to begin cutting back in two months is perhaps the most ambitious from a Fed president to date.

Other high-ranking Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, have not yet given a forecast for when they want to pull back on the economic stimulus.

“It would be my view that if the economy unfolds between now and our September meeting … if it unfolds the way I expect, I would be in favor of announcing a plan at the September meeting and beginning tapering in October,” Kaplan said.

The Fed sought to support the U.S. economy in the spring of 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic began to shut down businesses across the country. As part of that effort, the central bank has each month purchased some $120 billion worth of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities to keep banks and other lender flushed with cash.

But with economic activity and employment now healthier, Kaplan told “The Exchange” he feels comfortable pulling back on the stimulus.

“The reason I’m saying we ought to begin the tapering soon is I think these purchases are very well equipped to stimulate demand. But we don’t have a demand problem in the economy,” he told CNBC’s Steve Liesman. “My thought is I’d rather take the foot off the accelerator soon and reduce the RPMs.”

“What I don’t want to do is keeping running at this speed for too long and then we’re going to have to take more aggressive action down the road,” Kaplan said.

He added that the Fed’s asset tapering should be separate from its eventual move to raise interest rates. The process of tapering should take about eight months, Kaplan said.

The ambitious tone from Kaplan is not wholly surprising.

A so-called hawk, Kaplan is among the Fed presidents more often in favor of tighter monetary policy and higher interest rates. Kaplan is not a 2021 voting member on the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank body in charge of making adjustments to monetary policy.

His comments to CNBC came just hours after the Labor Department reported that inflation held at multiyear highs in July. Economists often consider rising prices a symptom of a healthy economy, but too much inflation can suggest that business is overheating.

The consumer price index, or CPI, rose 5.4% in July from a year earlier, in line with June’s figure and matching the largest jump since August 2008.

Kaplan said the current climb in prices is thanks to a mismatch between pent-up consumer demand, the result of Covid-19 vaccines and overwhelmed supply chains.

Chair Powell and other Fed officials have noted the recent acceleration in prices but believe that the inflation is “transitory” and that prices won’t climb at their current hot pace much longer.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Paesi Bassi. Giugno21. PPI al 12.6% su Giugno2020. Prodotti petroliferi +51.7%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-12.

2021-08-11 Paesi Bassi. Giugno21. PPI al 12.6% su Giugno2020. Prodotti petroliferi +51.7%

Diamo con piacere atto allo Statistics Netherlands (CBS) di riportare dati non manipolati e di esporli in modo obiettivo, cosa non da poco in tempi di maquillage spinto.  

È la prima istituzione ufficiale che identifica correttamente le cause dell’incremento del PPI ed evita la solita manfrina che la colpa sarebbe solo ed esclusivamente della pandemia da Covid.

2021-08-11 Paesi Bassi. Giugno21. PPI al 12.6% su Giugno2020. Prodotti petroliferi +51.7% bis

«prices of Dutch-manufactured products were on average 12.6 percent up in June 2021 year-on-year»

«In June, prices of petroleum derivatives were up by 51.7 percent year-on-year»

«Output prices of chemical products were 34.8 percent higher in June than in the same month last year»

«Prices in almost all of the manufacturing industries were higher in June 2021 than in the same month last year»

* * * * * * *

Questa inflazione è importata, e le manovre finanziare possono fare ben poco per contenerla.

L’unica soluzione possibile sarebbe quella di detassare codesti prodotti, ma il problema resterebbe appena scalfito.

L’intero problema sarebbe politico: delle trattative aperte e chiare con i paesi produttori.

* * * * * * *

Gli olandesi hanno la fortuna di essersi scelti come Governatore della Banca Centrale Herr Klaas Knot

Banca Centrale Olandese. Klaas Knot, un Governatore dal volto umano.

«”La politica monetaria non può fare tutto da sola: ci sono limiti al nostro mandato”»

«noi possiamo acquistare Coronabond o nuovi bond che emette il Mes»

De Nederlandsche Bank. Presidente Knot. ECB tapering entro il marzo2022.

«ECB’s Knot warns central bank could be underestimating inflation»

«European Central Bank policy maker Klaas Knot warned that policy makers may be underestimating the potential for accelerating inflation to become entrenched, and that emergency monetary stimulus should end around March 2022»

* * * * * * *


Statistics Netherlands (CBS). Manufacturing output prices almost 13 percent up in June

Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports that prices of Dutch-manufactured products were on average 12.6 percent up in June 2021 year-on-year. In the previous month, prices were 13.2 percent up.

                         Soaring crude oil prices

Output prices are strongly affected by crude oil price developments. In June 2021, the crude oil barrel price stood at almost 61 euros, approximately 69 percent up on June 2020. In May 2021, the price of a barrel of crude North Sea Brent oil was 56 euros, over 88 percent higher than in May 2020.

In June, prices of petroleum derivatives were up by 51.7 percent year-on-year. In May, they were up by 75.5 percent. In the chemical industry as well, output prices are generally linked to crude oil price developments. Output prices of chemical products were 34.8 percent higher in June than in the same month last year. In May, prices increased by 36.8 percent year-on-year.

Prices in almost all of the manufacturing industries were higher in June 2021 than in the same month last year.

                         Prices of manufactured products increased in June

Manufacturing output prices rose by 0.7 percent in June relative to May. They increased by 0.9 percent on the export market and by 0.4 percent on the domestic market.

* * * * * * *

                         Sources.

Link StatLine – Producer Price Index

Link StatLine – Producer Price Index (PPI); output and importprices by product

                         Related items.

Link Dossier – Business cycle

                         Read more about.

price changes

manufacturing

business cycle

prices

                         Series.

Manufacturing prices

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Unione Europea. Maggio21. Prezzi della Produzione Industriale +7.6% sul maggio20

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-30.

2021-07-30__ Eurostat. Producer prices in industry, total - monthly data 001

Nonostante strenue manovre di maquillage contabile, alla fine vien fuori che nell’Unione Europea i Prezzi della Produzione Industriale sono a maggio il +7.6% sul maggio20.

Il momento è particolarmente critico.

Unione Europea. Recovery Plan bloccato. Nemmeno un cane vuol comprare i bond europei.

ECB. Weidmann e Wunsch votano contro la Lagarde sui tassi di interesse.

Bene.

Adesso la ECB è alle corde.

L’inflazione ha superato abbondantemente il limite previsto, ed un bel giorno dovrà bene iniziare il tapering.

Sarà un giorno di pianto e stridore di denti.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

IMF. Aumento delle materie prime e delle spese per la casa spingono l’inflazione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-29.

Andrà tutto bene 001

«More persistent supply disruptions and sharply rising housing prices are some of the factors that could lead to persistently high inflation.»

«IMF warns that inflation could prove to be persistent and central banks may need to act»

«Higher prices increase the chances that central banks will start to curb their ultra-accommodative monetary policies, such as a tapering of market-friendly stimulus like asset purchases»

«if the U.S. were to provide more fiscal support then this could increase inflationary pressures even further and lead to a hike in interest rates earlier-than-expected»

«The International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday that there’s a risk inflation will prove to be more than just transitory, pushing central banks to take pre-emptive action»

«The issue is currently dividing the investment community, which has been busy contemplating whether a recent surge in consumer prices is here to stay»

«In the U.S., the consumer price index came in at 5.4% in June»

«For the most part, the Washington-based institution sees these price pressures as transitory»

«There is however a risk that transitory pressures could become more persistent and central banks may need to take preemptive action»

«Speaking earlier this month, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the jobs market was “still a ways off” from where the central bank would like to see it before it reduces stimulus»

«Global recovery is ‘not assured’»

«The recovery, however, is not assured even in countries where infections are currently very low»

* * * * * * *

Lo International Monetary Fund prende atto di una inflazioni persistente ed in crescita, sostenuta dagli aumenti dei costi delle materie prime e da quelli per la casa.

Alla fine si è smesso di incolpare il Covid-19 quale causa di ogni male.

Il tapering, così osteggiato dagli investitori di assalto, sta avvicinandosi a grandi passi.

Allora sì che si vedrà la Harris-Biden Administration rosolarsi alla fiamma viva dei suoi insuccessi economici.

Quanto accaduto in Texas dovrebbe dare da pensare.

* * * * * * *



IMF warns that inflation could prove to be persistent and central banks may need to act

– Higher prices increase the chances that central banks will start to curb their ultra-accommodative monetary policies, such as a tapering of market-friendly stimulus like asset purchases.

– The IMF had already pointed out that if the U.S. were to provide more fiscal support then this could increase inflationary pressures even further and lead to a hike in interest rates earlier-than-expected.

– The IMF on Tuesday kept its global growth forecast at 6% for 2021, but it revised its expectations for 2022.

*

The International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday that there’s a risk inflation will prove to be more than just transitory, pushing central banks to take pre-emptive action.

The issue is currently dividing the investment community, which has been busy contemplating whether a recent surge in consumer prices is here to stay. In the U.S., the consumer price index came in at 5.4% in June — the fastest pace in almost 13 years. In the U.K., the inflation rate reached 2.5% in June — the highest level since August 2018 and above the Bank of England’s target of 2%.

For the most part, the Washington-based institution sees these price pressures as transitory. “Inflation is expected to return to its pre-pandemic ranges in most countries in 2022,” the Fund said in its latest World Economic Outlook update released Tuesday.

However, it warned that “uncertainty remains high.”

“There is however a risk that transitory pressures could become more persistent and central banks may need to take preemptive action,” the IMF said.

Higher prices increase the chances that central banks will start to curb their ultra-accommodative monetary policies, such as a tapering of market-friendly stimulus like asset purchases.

Speaking earlier this month, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the jobs market was “still a ways off” from where the central bank would like to see it before it reduces stimulus. He added that inflation would “likely remain elevated in coming months before moderating.”

The IMF had already pointed out earlier this month that if the U.S. were to provide more fiscal support then this could increase inflationary pressures even further and lead to a hike in interest rates earlier-than-expected.

IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said in a blogpost Tuesday that “more persistent supply disruptions and sharply rising housing prices are some of the factors that could lead to persistently high inflation.”

She also warned that “inflation is expected to remain elevated into 2022 in some emerging market and developing economies, related in part to continued food price pressures and currency depreciations.”

Global recovery is ‘not assured’

The IMF on Tuesday kept its global growth forecast at 6% for 2021, but it revised its expectations for 2022.

Instead of a gross domestic product rate of 4.4%, as predicted in April; the Fund now sees a growth rate of 4.9% next year.

“The 0.5 percentage point upgrade for 2022 derives largely from the forecast upgrade for advanced economies, particularly the United States, reflecting the anticipated legislation of additional fiscal support in the second half of 2021 and improved health metrics more broadly across the group,” the IMF said.

However, the outlook is dependent on the coronavirus vaccination campaigns. 

According to Our World in Data, 13.81% of the global population is fully vaccinated against Covid-19 and 13.46% are partially inoculated. This shows the stark difference between advanced and developing economies.

In the U.K. and Canada, more than 54% of all citizens are fully vaccinated. In South Africa, that number drops to 3.9% and in Egypt to 1.57%.

“Vaccine access has emerged as the principal fault line along which the global recovery splits into two blocs: those that can look forward to further normalization of activity later this year (almost all advanced economies) and those that will still face resurgent infections and rising COVID death tolls,” the Fund said.

“The recovery, however, is not assured even in countries where infections are currently very low so long as the virus circulates elsewhere,” the IMF warned.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Usa. Fed. Mr Jerome Powell avrebbe preso un granchio, ‘prices …. keep rocketing skyward’.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-22.

Pollo allo Spiedo 001

La Harris-Biden Administration ha un bisogno assoluto che la Fed prosegua a mantenere i tassi quasi a zero e che continui ad iniettare denaro nel sistema. Deve mantenere i suoi verosimili voti elargendo assistenza e facendo arricchire i sodali.

Ma il progressivo innalzarsi del processo inflattivo richiederebbe tutto tranne che la dilazione del tapering.

La Harris-Biden Administration è in un vicolo cieco: in una strada senza ritorno.

Adesso, qualsiasi cosa faccia, ivi compreso il far nulla, genererà solo ulteriori danni.

*

«Jerome Powell keeps insisting that inflation is transitory, but the data are all going the other way»

«The head of the Federal Reserve continues to insist that the rise in prices is “transitory” and doesn’t require any rethink of the central bank’s ultra-stimulative policies»

«Mohamed A. El-Erian worries about the increasing probability of a monetary policy mistake that could derail a potentially strong and transformational U.S. economic recovery»

«There’s also an increased likelihood of a market accident»

«Powell’s other conviction is that the Fed has the policy tools to react quickly and effectively if need be, without causing economic and financial disruptions»

«But a growing number of economists question this»

«If the central bank doesn’t start taking its foot off the stimulus accelerator now, it may have to abruptly slam on the policy brakes down the road»

«Traders are betting that Powell will chicken out»

«the Fed has no easy options»

«If it scales back on mortgage-bond purchases, that could threaten market stability; if it doesn’t, home prices could keep rocketing skyward»

* * * * * * *

Il buon Hegel aveva detto con fare sicuro che se i dati sperimentali contraddicessero la teoria, ebbene, tanto peggio per i dati.

Mr Jerome Powell sembrerebbe comportarsi in piena sintonia con Hegel.

*


It’s Time for the Fed to Ease Up on Stimulus

Jerome Powell keeps insisting that inflation is transitory, but the data are all going the other way.

The head of the Federal Reserve continues to insist that the rise in prices is “transitory” and doesn’t require any rethink of the central bank’s ultra-stimulative policies. But as the data keep pointing the other way, Mohamed A. El-Erian worries about the increasing probability of a monetary policy mistake that could derail a potentially strong and transformational U.S. economic recovery. There’s also an increased likelihood of a market accident.

Powell’s other conviction is that the Fed has the policy tools to react quickly and effectively if need be, without causing economic and financial disruptions. But a growing number of economists question this. If the central bank doesn’t start taking its foot off the stimulus accelerator now, it may have to abruptly slam on the policy brakes down the road. The risk is that the Fed could inadvertently engineer a recession. 

The bond market, on the other hand, seems confident that the central bank, for all of Powell’s demurrals, will tighten monetary policy soon. As  John Authers points out, long-term yields are falling instead of rising with the inflation data. Traders are betting that Powell will chicken out.

Meanwhile, Lisa Abramowicz examines Powell’s dilemma on real estate prices, and she concludes that the Fed has no easy options. If it scales back on mortgage-bond purchases, that could threaten market stability; if it doesn’t, home prices could keep rocketing skyward.  

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Regno Unito

U.K. Central Bank potrebbe iniziare per prima il tapering.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-26.

BOE. Banca di Inghlterra. London. UK.

Il sistema economico del Regno Unito sta dimostrando segni di ripresa, ma anche concreti avvisi di una inflazione crescente e duratura, essendo questa sostenuta da motivazioni strutturali.

Il PPI, Indice dei prezzi di produzione, si è attestato a +10.7.

Il PCI, Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo, non ha ancora risentito degli aumenti dei prezzi alla produzione, e vale +2.1%.

* * * * * * *

«The U.K. central bank is well placed to seize any first-mover advantage in reducing economic stimulus»

«With global inflation set to accelerate, investors accustomed to stimulus-buoyed asset prices are assessing which major central bank will be first to turn off the taps»

«The U.K. economy is already poised to grow by more than 7% this year, beating both the U.S. and European Union and possibly leading the pack in 2022 as well»

«Key to this momentum is the largest rainy day hoarding of any developed economy. A third of Brits have increased their savings since March 2020, compared with about a fifth of people in the U.S., Germany and France»

«Figures last week showed annual U.K. inflation accelerated to 2.1% in May, faster than the 1.8% predicted by economists and exceeding the BOE’s target for the first time in almost two years»

«Higher prices for fuel, eating out, clothing and recreational goods drove the advance»

«The U.K. central bank expects inflation to peak at about 2.5%, with a return to target by year-end that will hold for the foreseeable future»

«But consumer prices could make further headway, especially if more of those savings get spent once the economy unlocks fully»

«With the economy running hotter than anticipated, the central bank will need to get creative in how it starts to reduce monetary stimulus»

«The simplest route is to stop reinvesting the proceeds when its gilts mature. In March, for example, it will receive about 27 billion pounds when the 4% 2022 bond gets repaid. Rather than plough that cash back into the market, that chunky redemption provides a perfect opportunity to begin reducing the balance sheet»

«→→ This would be proper tapering ←←»

* * * * * * *

L’aumento dei prezzi alla produzione si ripercuote sempre, immancabilmente, sui prezzi al consumo, che crescono di conseguenza. Si genera inflazione, aggravata poi da un aumento delle disponibilità dei consumatori.

Il problema è quindi dapprima economico e dopo finanziario.

In ogni caso, tutto l’enclave liberal occidentale è ben avviato sulla strada di una inflazione duratura e severa.

*


Bank of England May Beat the Fed to Tapering

The U.K. central bank is well placed to seize any first-mover advantage in reducing economic stimulus.

With global inflation set to accelerate, investors accustomed to stimulus-buoyed asset prices are assessing which major central bank will be first to turn off the taps. Although attention has focused on the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England could well initiate stepping off the monetary accelerator.

The U.K. economy is already poised to grow by more than 7% this year, beating both the U.S. and European Union and possibly leading the pack in 2022 as well. And while the four-week delay to reopening the economy until July 19 will trim output this quarter and next, the shortfall will get made up by the end of the year. Bloomberg economist Dan Hanson sees the later reopening curtailing gross domestic product growth by 0.4% to 2.1% in the third quarter, but boosting the final quarter by the same amount to 1.4%.    

Key to this momentum is the largest rainy day hoarding of any developed economy. A third of Brits have increased their savings since March 2020, compared with about a fifth of people in the U.S., Germany and France, according to a recent survey by YouGov Plc. Robust consumer confidence is also stoking the recovery, with figures this Friday expected to show a further rebound in optimism.

Figures last week showed annual U.K. inflation accelerated to 2.1% in May, faster than the 1.8% predicted by economists and exceeding the BOE’s target for the first time in almost two years. Higher prices for fuel, eating out, clothing and recreational goods drove the advance.

                         Rising Prices

The U.K. central bank expects inflation to peak at about 2.5%, with a return to target by year-end that will hold for the foreseeable future. But consumer prices could make further headway, especially if more of those savings get spent once the economy unlocks fully.

One welcome side effect of a resurgent economy is that the Office of Budgetary Responsibility’s March estimate of government borrowing has turned out to be about 20% too high. Its deficit forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2022 of 234 billion pounds ($325 billion) is almost certain to be revised lower — hence there’s less need for the Treasury to borrow as much, or in turn for the Bank of England to buy as many gilts via quantitative easing.

With the economy running hotter than anticipated, the central bank will need to get creative in how it starts to reduce monetary stimulus. The simplest route is to stop reinvesting the proceeds when its gilts mature. In March, for example, it will receive about 27 billion pounds when the 4% 2022 bond gets repaid. Rather than plough that cash back into the market, that chunky redemption provides a perfect opportunity to begin reducing the balance sheet.

This would be proper tapering. Merely halting the flow of purchases, as the BOE did up until last spring, is merely a half-way step. Until the overall stock of bonds held in the monetary system reduces, there is still ongoing stimulus.

Telegraphing such a move well in advance should ameliorate the risk that pulling back support leads to a credit crunch. And avoiding a taper tantrum would set a handy precedent for other central banks grappling with how to unhook financial markets from their addiction to endless QE.

The guardians of financial stability are well aware that this is a tricky juncture. “This is the most dangerous moment for monetary policy since inflation targeting was first introduced into the U.K. in 1992,” Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane said earlier this month.

He’s likely to repeat his vote to reduce the stock of asset purchases on Thursday, at his last meeting as a U.K. central banker. While his colleagues are unlikely to follow suit just yet, in the coming months they need to start wrestling with how to diminish the largess central banks have showered upon the economy and markets. “Better sooner rather than later” might turn out to be their guiding phrase.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Banche Centrali. Alti tassi oppure alta inflazione. Possono scegliere come fallire.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-01.

Brüghel il Vecchio. La parabola dei ciechi.

«Se i fatti smentiscono la teoria, tanto peggio per i fatti», Hegel.

Fed. Non solo tapering. Il quantitative easing costituisce una bomba ad orologeria.

Canada. Bank of Canada inizia il ‘great exit’. Inizia il tapering.

Fed. Questa allarmante inflazione è proprio quello che avrebbe voluto evitare. – Bloomberg.

Inflazione. Sorella miseria si fa precedere dalla comare inflazione. Adesso anche l’UK.

Stagflazione. Uno dei tanti cigni neri che si aggirano come avvoltoi.

Fed. Che l’inflazione alta sia temporanea è un ‘article of faith’. – Bloomberg.

Usa. Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo +4.2% anno su anno. Fed in tilt.

USA. Crolla a 218k la generazione di nuovi posti di lavoro. Pronta reazione della Fed.

* * * * * * *

«Con il termine tapering si fa riferimento al processo di rallentamento del ritmo di acquisti mensile dei titoli di Stato (noto come Quantitative easing) da parte di una banca centrale. La parola Tapering è stata utilizzata per la prima volta nel 2013 dall’allora numero uno della Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, quando decise di alleggerire la fase di QE. Il termine Tapering non deve essere confuso con il “Tightening”, parola che invece sta a indicare un restringimento delle condizioni di politica monetaria, solitamente attraverso un aumento graduale dei tassi di interesse» [Sole24Ore]

«central bank asset purchases in the United States, Japan, the euro zone and Britain will slide to about $3.4 trillion this year from almost $9 trillion in 2020»

«The Fed plans to keep borrowing costs near 0% and maintain monthly asset purchases worth $120 billion until it sees “substantial further progress” towards full employment and its 2% flexible inflation target»

* * *

«Con alleggerimento o allentamento quantitativo, o anche facilitazione quantitativa, sovente con la locuzione inglese quantitative easing (o QE), si designa una delle modalità con cui avviene la creazione di moneta a debito da parte di una banca centrale e la sua iniezione, con operazioni di mercato aperto, nel sistema finanziario ed economico. ….

Il quantitative easing è uno strumento in grado di assicurare la permanenza dell’inflazione al di sopra di una certo valore-obiettivo. Il rischio di questa politica monetaria è il fatto che si riveli più efficace del previsto contro la deflazione nel lungo termine, portando ad un eccesso di inflazione a causa dell’aumento dell’offerta di moneta ….»

* * * * * * *

«Slowly but surely, central banks are signaling policy shifts»

«New Zealand now sees higher rates in second half of 2022»

«Canada already signaled a shift»

«Fed also hints at exit talk»

«Central banks are beginning to tip toe away from their emergency monetary settings, with South Korea following in the footsteps of New Zealand and Canada to flag a potential interest-rate increase»

«As vaccines roll-outs continue and economies reopen, traders have been slowly dialing up expectations on rate hikes or a slowing of asset purchases elsewhere too»

«The Bank of Korea became the latest on Thursday to signal a turn when Governor Lee Ju-yeol said policy makers are preparing for an “orderly” exit from its record-low interest rate at some point as the economy recovers»

«The shift in stance came a day after New Zealand’s»

«We can’t rule out that the tail may wag the dog, influencing global market expectations of whether other central banks may also take a more hawkish turn»

«Financial markets have already brought forward pricing of the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike by almost a year since early February»

«Over the same period, market expectations from the Bank of England have switched from rate cuts by late 2022 to a rate increase»

«With major central banks embroiled in bond buying and other easing programs which traditionally get wound down first, most rate hikes remain some way off»

«The BOE has slowed bond-buying and signaled that it’s on course to end that support later this year»

«Norway is on track to start a hiking cycle, and Iceland has already begun»

«The Bank of Canada announced last month a reduction in debt purchases as it forecast a faster economic recovery that may pave the way for rate increases next year»

«The shift in monetary policy is starting»

«Hungary’s central bank said this week it was ready to deliver monetary tightening, and Russia, Turkey and Brazil have already hiked»

«The People’s Bank of China is holding the line with relatively disciplined stimulus»

«They will suffer from a double whammy as the Fed starts moving towards tapering»

* * * * * * *

Nuova Zelanda, Canada, South Korea, Regno Unito, Ungheria, Russia, Turkia, e Brasile hanno già iniziato il tapering oppure lo hanno annunciato come imminente. Ma il tapering si associa ad un aumento dei tassi di interesse.

Tuttavia, si faccia attenzione, il problema non è soltanto finanziario, di bilanciamento tra tassi di interesse ed inflazione.

Di interesse anche maggiore del pil è il numero dei nuovi posti di lavoro generati e la spesa per i consumi, che sono solo parzialmente influenzati dalle manovre finanziarie. Molto gioca la fiducia.

A parte il fatto che la Fed h sulle spalle 87 trilioni di debito totale degli Stati Uniti. Un grande fardello.

Nei fatti, prendiamo atto di questo trend che inizia a delinarsi.

*


Slowly But Surely, Central Banks Are Signaling Policy Shifts.

– New Zealand now sees higher rates in second half of 2022

– Canada already signaled a shift, Fed also hints at exit talk

*

Central banks are beginning to tip toe away from their emergency monetary settings, with South Korea following in the footsteps of New Zealand and Canada to flag a potential interest-rate increase.

As vaccines roll-outs continue and economies reopen, traders have been slowly dialing up expectations on rate hikes or a slowing of asset purchases elsewhere too. Markets are seizing on the tightening narrative, with bond yields and currencies fluctuating as investors recalibrate their bets.

The Bank of Korea became the latest on Thursday to signal a turn when Governor Lee Ju-yeol said policy makers are preparing for an “orderly” exit from its record-low interest rate at some point as the economy recovers. The shift in stance came a day after New Zealand’s.

New Zealand’s outlook was much more hawkish than expected and may yet signal a global shift, according to Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ Bank New Zealand in Auckland.

“We can’t rule out that the tail may wag the dog, influencing global market expectations of whether other central banks may also take a more hawkish turn,” she said.

Financial markets have already brought forward pricing of the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike by almost a year since early February. Over the same period, market expectations from the Bank of England have switched from rate cuts by late 2022 to a rate increase, while investors have almost abandoned bets on further European Central Bank reductions to instead price in a 10 basis-point upward move by the end of 2023.

                         Taper Talks

With major central banks embroiled in bond buying and other easing programs which traditionally get wound down first, most rate hikes remain some way off. But talk of a taper in asset purchases is catching on.

Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida told Yahoo! Finance in an interview Tuesday that there may be a point in upcoming policy meetings where officials can discuss scaling back purchases.

Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles said on Wednesday that it will be important for the central bank to begin discussing in coming months plans to reduce its massive bond purchases if the economy continues to power ahead.

The BOE has slowed bond-buying and signaled that it’s on course to end that support later this year. Australia’s central bank has set July as a deadline for deciding on whether to extend purchases.

Norway is on track to start a hiking cycle, and Iceland has already begun. The Bank of Canada announced last month a reduction in debt purchases as it forecast a faster economic recovery that may pave the way for rate increases next year.

                         Turning Point

“The shift in monetary policy is starting,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, Hong Kong based chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, who used to work for the ECB and International Monetary Fund.

Detailing its new outlook, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday published forecasts for its benchmark rate — for the first time in more than a year — that show the rate beginning to rise in mid-2022.

To be sure, this shift is still conditional.

RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said the bank’s outlook is predicated on the economy recovery continuing as vaccines roll out and the pandemic is contained. In a similar vein, BOK’s Lee said the board unanimously agreed to hold rates at a record low on Thursday as pandemic uncertainties persist.

The Fed’s Clarida also qualified his remarks around employment data and how inflation pressures play out, which he expects to be transitory.

It’s also the case that not every central bank is signaling a policy move, not least in the euro zone, where ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta said on Wednesday that he hasn’t seen a shift in the economic outlook to justify a reduction in bond purchases.

In emerging markets, the shift is splintering. Hungary’s central bank said this week it was ready to deliver monetary tightening, and Russia, Turkey and Brazil have already hiked. The People’s Bank of China is holding the line with relatively disciplined stimulus, while others continue to support growth as the virus continues to spread.

“There is growth divergence due to a much slower vaccination process in the emerging world and renewed waves,” said Garcia-Herrero. “They will suffer from a double whammy as the Fed starts moving towards tapering.”

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti, Unione Europea

Stagflazione. Uno dei tanti cigni neri che si aggirano come avvoltoi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-19.

2021-05-17__ Stagflazione 001

«È difficile far capire qualcosa a un uomo,

quando il suo stipendio dipende proprio dal fatto di non capirlo»

* * * * * * *

In economia, con il termine stagflazione (combinazione dei termini stagnazione ed inflazione) si indica la situazione nella quale sono contemporaneamente presenti nello stesso mercato sia un aumento generale dei prezzi (inflazione), sia una mancanza di crescita dell’economia in termini reali (stagnazione economica).

2021-05-17__ Stagflazione 002

Già un anno fa si era prospettata questa consistente possibilità:

Eurozona. Il cigno nero della stagflazione volteggia come un avvoltoio.

A distanza di un anno circa, la possibilità di una stagflazione è diventata molto realistica, specialmente negli Stati Uniti: sembrerebbe essere una oramai triste peculiarità dell’enclave liberal socialista occidentele.

*


In attesa di lumi sulla natura transitoria dell’inflazione, è già ora di stagflazione?

L’ultimo combinato di dati aggregati nel Macro Surprise Index statunitense parla chiaro. E il mercato immobiliare, ancora di più: l’accelerazione del prezzi è tale da aver bruciato ogni effetto positivo dei tassi a zero sui mutui per la classe media. E con le commodities che continuano a correre, le correlazioni con bond ed equities rimandano echi della bolla tech. Qualcuno avvisi le Banche centrali.

A detta delle Banche centrali, l’inflazione è transitoria. Nessuna preoccupazione, quindi. Ma al netto del +4,6% di percezione nella dinamica dei prezzi per il prossimo anno tracciata dall’ultimo sondaggio dell’Università del Michigan (UMich), massimo da dieci anni, viene da chiedersi come andrà giudicata la nuova dinamica emersa proprio la scorsa settimana negli Usa, frutto del combinato di delusione del nuovo dati sugli occupati e sulle vendite al dettaglio e inflazione più in ebollizione delle attese. E se questo grafico mette in prospettiva il trend del Macro Surprise Index, la parola chiave è una sola: stagflazione. Così come appare lapalissiano che se la narrativa mediatica vuole l’America del piano Biden scoppiare di salute economica, questo altro grafico ci mostri come il mercato abbia immediatamente preso atto degli sviluppi, spedendo la correlazione fra bond e equity al massimo dal 1999. Ovvero, alla vigilia dell’esplosione della bolla tech.

Ma non basta. Perché anche la correlazione fra Nasdaq e commodities ci riporta a quel triennio poi rivelatosi horribilis, visto che fra il 1997 e il 2000 la ratio Nasdaq/CRB esplose verso nuovi massimi, salvo poi collassare quando gli investitori cominciarono a operare in modalità pivot verso le materie prime, come mostra il grafico.

Meglio sperare, quindi, che Goldman Sachs abbia sbagliato previsione rispetto a un nuovo super-ciclo delle commodities e che la Cina continui nella sua opera di sgonfiamento della bolla, fra tapering del supporto pandemico e restrizioni sull’operatività della speculazione. Il problema è che tutto questo sta accedendo in un clima di irreale inconsapevolezza delle opinioni pubbliche, la cui percezione della realtà appare ancora totalmente compromessa dal doping di stimolo. Ma la presa d’atto rischia di essere più repentina e traumatica di quanto non si creda.

Lo confermano questi altri due grafici, di fatto le due facce della stessa medaglia. Se infatti il primo mostra come nel periodo fra il quarto trimestre del 2019 e del 2020 i prezzi del real estate siano cresciuti nelle nazioni OCSE del 6,7%, il ritmo più rapido da venti anni a questa parte, il secondo contestualizza in maniera fin troppo chiaro il sentiment immobiliare negli Usa: costruttori ai massimi dell’euforia, acquirenti ai minimi dal 1983. Qualcosa non funziona. Anche perché il dato immobiliare Usa fotografato la scorsa settimana dal Case-Shiller Home Price Index vede il trend dei prezzi nelle 20 città più grandi del Paese in aumento su base annua addirittura dell’11,10%, mentre al di fuori delle principali aree urbane il balzo è stato il maggiore dal 2006.

Ma non basta. Stando a dati rilevati dalla National Association of Realtors e da Fannie Mae, a livello nazionale il prezzo di vendita medio per case già esistenti è salito del 16,2% nel primo trimestre di quest’anno a 319.200 dollari, un record assoluto dal 1989, anno di inizio del tracciamento della serie storica. Di fatto, l’apprezzamento delle valutazioni è stato così rapido da aver pressoché annullato del tutto l’effetto positivo dei tassi ultra-bassi sui mutui per i compratori della classe media e medio-bassa. E a confermare una frattura in atto, l’ampliarsi silenzioso di una faglia in seno al granitico ottimismo pandemico da Qe ci pensa quest’altro grafico,

il quale mostra come il 13 maggio i timori di inflazione abbiano sostanziato il peggior outflow di capitali intraday dall’iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) di BlackRock, il più grande ETF su debito junk: qualcosa come 1,2 miliardi di dollari, capaci di portare il totale del controvalore in fuga dal reddito fisso più rischioso da inizio anno a 5,6 miliardi di dollari.

Insomma, se la saggezza di mercato in condizioni simili invita a continuare a ballare, avvicinandosi però – senza dare nell’occhio – verso l’uscita di sicurezza, oggi si può tranquillamente dire che quelle porte adornate da maniglioni antipanico stanno diventando l’angolo più ambito della sala. Tutti volteggiano, così da non destare sospetto ma il passo si fa sempre più svelto. E i risultati inanellati nella settimana appena conclusa uniti alla quantomeno sgraziata e plateale inversione di tendenza di Elon Musk su Bitcoin, paiono confermare come sia proprio il comparto tech il canarino nella miniera che potrebbe – con i suoi colpi di tosse sempre più strozzati – dare il via all’esodo di massa.

Perché se finora l’inflazione è stata tenuta sotto controllo a livello di percezione generale, oggi il rischio di una stagflazione che venga alimentata da nuove chiusure per Covid o per liabilities sulle catene produttive (scarsità di microchip) difficilmente potrà essere relegato a fenomeno anch’esso transitorio. Non a caso, nel suo ultimo report, il capo economista di Bank of America, Michael Hartnett, parla chiaramente di stagflazione come scenario più probabile per il secondo semestre di quest’anno, segnalando come potenziale detonatore il combinato di picco di consumi negli Usa e rendimenti obbligazionari in aumento e fissando lo yield previsto per il Treasury a 5 anni sopra l’1% e quello del Bund decennale di nuovo sopra lo 0%.

E in quanto alle opinioni pubbliche, quanto ci vorrà prima che quella divaricazione netta già presente fra le componenti del mercato immobiliare Usa pervada tutti gli strati delle società avanzate? Tutto dipende, chiaramente, dai tempi e dalla gradualità di uscita dai regimi emergenziali, sia a livello di compensazione salariale che di tutela occupazionale: a quel punto, la perdita reale di potere d’acquisto e di reddito opererà come una doccia fredda. Viene in mente l’aforisma attribuito a Upton Sinclair, a detta del quale è difficile far capire qualcosa a un uomo, quando il suo stipendio dipende proprio dal fatto di non capirlo.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Fed. Non solo tapering. Il quantitative easing costituisce una bomba ad orologeria.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-09.

FED 001

«La domanda che circonda l’ultimo incontro della Federal Reserve non riguarda l’aumento dei tassi d’interesse, per altro bloccati “almeno fino al 2023” come indicato nella scorso meeting di marzo»

«Gli investitori si chiederanno, perlopiù, se la banca deciderà di rivedere prima del previsto il programma d’acquisto obbligazionario vista l’accelerazione della ripresa economica, o se continuerà ad iniettare liquidità nel sistema almeno fino all’estate»

«Jerome Powell potrebbe dover rispondere anche al nuovo aumento delle commodities, con le materie prime agricole e industriali che in questi giorni hanno toccato nuovi massimi pluriennali»

«Attualmente, il quantitative easing della Fed ammonta a circa $120 miliardi di acquisti mensili»

«I dati economici, ora, mostrano un’inversione di tendenza grazie al piano vaccinale e alle riaperture dei diversi settori, ma potrebbe non bastare per far cambiare idea al Federal Open Market Committee»

«dalla Fed “stanno producendo liquidità che alimenterà una ripresa economica, ma la sfida è vedere quando decideranno di ritirarsi”»

* * * * * * *

La Fed acquista titoli per 1,440 miliardi ogni anno. Questo avviene perché non si trovano acquirenti sul mercato.

Piaccia o meno, la realtà è questa.

Se sicuramente il tasso di interesse gioca un importante ruolo nel determinare l’appetibilità dei titoli, dovrebbe essere altrettanto evidente come una riduzione degli acquisti da parte della Fed potrebbe destabilizzare un sistema economico basato proprio sull’incremento del debito.

Nemesi è in paziente attesa: la ripresa, sempre che mai ci sia, potrebbe essere ancora più dolorosa della crisi.

*


Non solo “tapering”, che cosa aspettarsi dalla riunione della Federal Reserve.

La domanda che circonda l’ultimo incontro della Federal Reserve non riguarda l’aumento dei tassi d’interesse, per altro bloccati “almeno fino al 2023” come indicato nella scorso meeting di marzo. Gli investitori si chiederanno, perlopiù, se la banca deciderà di rivedere prima del previsto il programma d’acquisto obbligazionario vista l’accelerazione della ripresa economica, o se continuerà ad iniettare liquidità nel sistema almeno fino all’estate. 

Nella conferenza stampa che seguirà la decisione, prevista questa sera alle 20:00 CEST, il presidente Jerome Powell potrebbe dover rispondere anche al nuovo aumento delle commodities, con le materie prime agricole e industriali che in questi giorni hanno toccato nuovi massimi pluriennali. 

Attualmente, il quantitative easing della Fed ammonta a circa $120 miliardi di acquisti mensili, che hanno spinto il bilancio a circa $8 miliardi dall’inizio della crisi e hanno sostenuto il funzionamento del credito in un anno che ha visto il PIL americano crollare al -31,4% nel secondo trimestre 2020. 

I dati economici, ora, mostrano un’inversione di tendenza grazie al piano vaccinale e alle riaperture dei diversi settori, ma potrebbe non bastare per far cambiare idea al Federal Open Market Committee, che in precedenza ha affermato di iniziare con il “tapering” quando vedrà “ulteriori progressi sostanziali” nella ripresa economica e l’inflazione in media al di sopra del suo obiettivo del 2%. 

Il tasso di disoccupazione rimane elevato, pari al 6%, e il PCE core, indice preferito dalla Fed per misurare l’inflazione, si attesta all’1,4%, con un aumento dei tassi d’interesse oltre l’1,6% che non potrà essere ignorato dai membri del comitato di politica monetaria. 

Secondo Randy Frederick, vice presidente del trading e dei derivati di Charles Schwab, dalla Fed “stanno producendo liquidità che alimenterà una ripresa economica, ma la sfida è vedere quando decideranno di ritirarsi”. 

Un’altro punto d’osservazione per il mercato saranno gli sviluppi del tasso IOER sulle riserve in eccesso (0,10%), con i tassi dei pronti contro termine e i titoli a breve termine che vengono scambiati intorno allo 0% ma che recentemente hanno visto anche rendimenti negativi.

Nonostante l’aumento nella parta alta della curva, i titoli a breve termine potrebbero tornare in territorio negativo “entro maggio”, spingendo la Fed ad agire “per mantenere tassi del mercato monetario superiori allo zero”, secondo gli analisti di Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC). 

Per BofA, “la Fed dovrebbe aumentare il tasso di interesse applicato sulle riserve in eccesso dello 0,05%”, ma “idealmente” allo 0,20% dal suo attuale 0,10%.