Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania in piena stagflazione già evidente nei dati dell’ultimo trimestre. – Bloomberg.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-19.

2022-01-16__ Germania 001

«German economic system heads for recession after shrinking final quarter»

«Germany is headed for its second recession of the pandemic after the emergence of the coronavirus’s omicron pressure compounded drags on output from provide snarls and the quickest inflation in three a long time»

«Europe’s largest financial system shrank by 0.5% to 1% within the remaining quarter of 2021»

«all predict one other contraction this quarter»

«For the entire of final 12 months, gross home product rose 2.7%  — matching estimates however nonetheless wanting its pre-crisis stage»

«The dimensions of the year-end stoop got here as a shock after the Bundesbank final month signaled solely a slight decline was seemingly»

«In the meantime, energy and heating prices have soared, whereas microchips and different inputs for factories stay scarce»

«bottlenecks are persisting, the surge in vitality costs is barely now reaching shoppers, and companies are weakened by the virus»

«output falling 0.8% between January and March»

«A big share of Germany’s struggles is rooted in its outsized reliance on manufacturing»

«Carmakers are struggling essentially the most, with nearly a fifth of workers within the trade furloughed in December …. with nearly a fifth of workers within the trade furloughed in December»

«Volkswagen reported 2021 gross sales declined to the bottom in a decade and warned chip provide will stay tight within the first half.»

«However inflation is an impediment. costs in Europe jumped to the best stage in per week on Friday amid tensions over Ukraine, suggesting client vitality prices — already rising at an annual tempo of just below 20% — might enhance additional»

«Practically 80% of non-food retailers surveyed by trade group HDE have been sad with end-of-year gross sales»

* * * * * * *

La Germania è in stagflazione. L’Indice dei Prezzi alla Produzione è il 19.2% anno su anno, l’Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo è il 5.3%. La Produzione Industriale vale -0.2%, le Vendite al Dettaglio -2.9% e le Immatricolazioni delle Automobili registrano un -31.7%.

A ciò si aggiungano i grandiosi piani Grüne, costosissimi, e la stagflazione è in tavola.

Poi, uscirne, saranno lacrime amare.

* * * * * * *


German Economy Heads for Recession After Shrinking Last Quarter. – Bloomberg.

German Economic system Heads for Recession After Shrinking Final Quarter

(Bloomberg) — Germany is headed for its second recession of the pandemic after the emergence of the coronavirus’s omicron pressure compounded drags on output from provide snarls and the quickest inflation in three a long time.

Europe’s largest financial system shrank by 0.5% to 1% within the remaining quarter of 2021, based on an estimate launched Friday by the Federal Statistics Workplace. With new Covid-19 instances at a document and the important thing manufacturing trade nonetheless struggling to supply elements, Dekabank, NordLB and ABN Amro all predict one other contraction this quarter.

For the entire of final 12 months, gross home product rose 2.7%  — matching estimates however nonetheless wanting its pre-crisis stage. Germany’s restoration trails France, Italy and Spain, that are anticipated to report 2021 expansions of 4.5% or extra later this month.

The dimensions of the year-end stoop got here as a shock after the Bundesbank final month signaled solely a slight decline was seemingly. However there’s little signal issues will enhance quickly. 

Germany reported greater than 90,000 day by day new infections on Friday, threatening workers shortages, manufacturing cuts and doubtlessly tighter restrictions. In the meantime, energy and heating prices have soared, whereas microchips and different inputs for factories stay scarce.

“I don’t have an entire lot of creativeness for optimistic impulses — provide bottlenecks are persisting, the surge in vitality costs is barely now reaching shoppers, and companies are weakened by the virus,” stated Andreas Scheuerle, an economist at Dekabank who sees output falling 0.8% between January and March.

The spring, nevertheless, ought to mark a resumption within the pandemic rebound. 

“Covid shouldn’t play a serious position anymore throughout the summer time — vitality costs ought to have been digested and supply-chain issues could have eased by then,” Scheuerle stated. “So within the second and third quarters, we must always see strong progress.”

The Bundesbank expects “vital momentum” from the spring onward, predicting full-year enlargement of 4.2%. Bloomberg Economics expects output to bounce again already within the first quarter — by at the very least 0.7% — as infections drop.

A big share of Germany’s struggles is rooted in its outsized reliance on manufacturing — a boon throughout earlier crises that changed into a legal responsibility as inputs turned tougher to search out. Carmakers are struggling essentially the most, with nearly a fifth of workers within the trade furloughed in December.

Volkswagen AG (OTC:) reported 2021 gross sales declined to the bottom in a decade and warned chip provide will stay tight within the first half.

“Transferring into 2022, the financial state of affairs doesn’t appear to have improved,” stated Aline Schuiling, senior economist at ABN Amro. “It received’t take a lot to slide into recession, although if fears of omicron wane throughout the first quarter, the decline in output might transform barely lower than on the finish of final 12 months.”

Extra stringent guidelines on vaccination could ease some stress on the financial system. Chancellor Olaf Scholz reaffirmed his assist on Wednesday for making pictures obligatory for all adults, whereas Volkswagen (DE:) stepped up its personal vaccination push.

However inflation is an impediment. costs in Europe jumped to the best stage in per week on Friday amid tensions over Ukraine, suggesting client vitality prices — already rising at an annual tempo of just below 20% — might enhance additional.

Whereas the federal government is contemplating assist for households struggling to pay surging payments and extra financial savings accrued throughout lockdowns could cushion a number of the blow, store house owners are frightened.

Practically 80% of non-food retailers surveyed by trade group HDE have been sad with end-of-year gross sales, which have been additionally damage by guidelines banning unvaccinated clients who hadn’t recovered from the virus.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Eurostat. Nov21. Prezzi della Produzione Industriale, PPI, +23.7% nella EU.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-09.

2022-01-08__ Eurostat 001

Eurostat. November 2021 compared with October 2021. Industrial producer prices up by 1.8% in the euro area and by 2.0% in the EU. Up by 23.7% in both the euro area and the EU compared with November 2020.

In November 2021, industrial producer prices rose by 1.8% in the euro area and by 2.0% in the EU, compared with October 2021, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In October 2021, prices increased by 5.4% in the euro area and by 5.0% in the EU.

2022-01-08__ Eurostat 002

                         Monthly comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State

Industrial producer prices in the euro area in November 2021, compared with October 2021, increased by 3.5% in the energy sector, by 1.5% for intermediate goods, by 0.6% for non-durable consumer goods, by 0.5% for durable consumer goods and by 0.4% for capital goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 0.9%.

In the EU, industrial producer prices increased by 4.5% in the energy sector, by 1.5% for intermediate goods, by 0.6% for durable and for non-durable consumer goods and by 0.4% for capital goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 1.0%.

The highest monthly increases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Denmark (+10.3%), Bulgaria (+8.5%) and Romania (+7.3%), while the only decrease was observed in Ireland (-2.5%).

                         Annual comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State

Industrial producer prices in the euro area in November 2021, compared with November 2020, increased by 66.0% in the energy sector, by 18.3% for intermediate goods, by 4.7% for durable consumer goods, by 4.4% for capital goods and by 3.8% for non-durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 9.8%.

In the EU, industrial producer prices increased by 64.9% in the energy sector, by 18.6% for intermediate goods, by 5.2% for durable consumer goods, by 4.6% for capital goods and by 4.2% for non-durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 10.1%.

The industrial producer prices increased in all Member States, with the highest yearly increases being registered in Ireland (+87.9%), Denmark (+51.7%) and Romania (+40.4%).

* * * * * * *

Significativamente, Eurostat riporta i dati senza commentarli.

Annualizzando, tra Nov21 ed Oct21 vi è un incremento di 1.8 punti percentuali: a fine anno 2022 l’incremento dovrebbe quindi essere di 21.6 punti percentuali, ossia il PPI dell’Europa dovrebbe arrivare ad essere il 45.3%. Ma l’incremento medio è nei fatti molto maggiore di 1.8 punti percentuali.

«In October 2021, prices increased by 5.4% in the euro area and by 5.0% in the EU»

Pena il fallimento delle imprese, questi aumenti si riverbereranno sui prezzi al consumo, innescando una perfetta spirale inflattiva.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Germania. Nov21. Vendite al dettaglio -2.9% anno su anno in termini reali.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-06.

2022-01-05__ Destatis 001

Nel novembre 2021 il Retail Turnover, Vendite al Dettaglio, in termini reali è variato del -2.9% rispetto allo stesso mese dell’anno precedente.

Il dato era atteso, dato che la Germania versa in stagflazione.

Tuttavia le Tabelle fornite da Destatis ben si prestano ad una considerazione generale.

Le variazioni percentuali sono tutte numericamente corrette tenendo presente la base di riferimento e la modalità espressiva: termini nominali oppure termini reali.

Questi valori dovrebbero essere usati secondo convenienza, ma sempre menzionando chiaramente la modalità del calcolo. Omettendo il contenuto logico del dato si generano grossolani equivoci, errori ed erronee conclusioni.

Nell’economia del presente discorso, il valore -2.9% anno su anno in termini reali è quello di reale interesse.

* * * * * * *

Destatis. Retail turnover in 2021 expected to be up 0.9% in real terms on 2020

                         Retail turnover, November 2021 (provisional, calendar and seasonally adjusted)

+0.6% on the previous month (in real terms)

+1.1% on the previous month (in nominal terms)

-2.9% on the same month a year earlier (in real terms)

+0.2% on the same month a year earlier (in nominal terms)

                         Annual result of 2021 (estimate, provisional)

+0.9% in 2021 compared with 2020 (in real terms)

+3.1% in 2021 compared with 2020 (in nominal terms)

* * * * * * *

Wiesbaden – According to an estimate of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), turnover in retail trade in Germany recorded a new record high in 2021. The real (price-adjusted) turnover in retail trade was 0.6% to 1.2% higher and the nominal (not price-adjusted) turnover was 2.8% to 3.4% higher in 2021 compared with 2020, the year with the highest turnover ever recorded. The resulting mean year-on-year rates of change were 0.9% on a real basis and 3.1% on a nominal basis. However, the results for the months of January to November 2021 indicate that parts of shop-based retail trade, such as retail trade in textiles, clothing, footwear and leather products, suffered losses in turnover in the second year of the coronavirus crisis, too.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Stati Uniti

US. Nov21. Benzina. Prezzi alle pompe. +60% anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-24.

2021-12-22__ US Gasoline 001

«the 60% increase from the year-ago coronavirus-affected trough was still alarming»

* * * * * * *

«U.S. gasoline prices have dropped in time for the major holiday driving season, but not everyone around the country is feeling the same relief at the pump»

«Fuel prices were one of the key factors in U.S. inflation that soared to multi-decade highs in October, dampening President Joe Biden’s popularity»

«Since prices peaked at $3.42 a gallon, the average retail price of U.S. gasoline has been retreating, now down 11 cents at $3.31 as of Friday»

«the 60% increase from the year-ago coronavirus-affected trough was still alarming»

«Part of that relates to additional additives required by states like California, geographic isolation from supply, and weather events that hampered delivery to the Pacific Northwest»

«In Michigan and Indiana, the average retail price is now down more than 25 cents»

«The average price of a gallon of gasoline in Michigan is currently $3.152, down 23 cents from a month ago. The average price of a gallon of gasoline in Michigan is currently $3.152, down 23 cents from a month ago»

«In the west coast, where crude oil supply to U.S. refineries was affected by historic flooding in British Columbia earlier this month, prices have hardly moved»

«The average price of gasoline in California as of last week was $4.67 a gallon, only two cents per gallon less a month ago»

«In Oregon, it was $3.774 a gallon, just one cent cheaper than a month ago»

«Crude prices are still up about 50% from last year as demand has rebounded while supply has been slower to return to the market»

«Since peaking at about $86 per barrel, the Brent crude benchmark has dropped to about $73 a barrel – a 15% decline»

«The Biden administration on several occasions raised concerns about the gap between wholesale costs and prices at the pump»

«The average price of gasoline in New Jersey last week was $3.413, only 4 cents lower than a month ago»

* * * * * * *

Cerchiamo di ragionare, nei limiti dell’umano possibile.

Se è vero che ogni diminuzione sia pur lieve del prezzo del carburante alla pompa sia sempre più che benvenuta, sarebbe altrettanto vero ricordarsi come

«the 60% increase from the year-ago coronavirus-affected trough was still alarming»

Si faccia attenzione a non magnificare piccole diminuzioni dei prezzi dimenticando i grandi aumenti che avevano avuto in precedenza.

* * * * * * *


U.S. gasoline prices fall a little or a lot, depending where you are.

Reuters – U.S. gasoline prices have dropped in time for the major holiday driving season, but not everyone around the country is feeling the same relief at the pump.

Fuel prices were one of the key factors in U.S. inflation that soared to multi-decade highs in October, dampening President Joe Biden’s popularity and sparking calls for investigations into potential fuel market manipulation. The U.S. is the biggest consumer of gasoline worldwide, and more than 100 million Americans are going to hit the roads this holiday season.

Since prices peaked at $3.42 a gallon, the average retail price of U.S. gasoline has been retreating, now down 11 cents at $3.31 as of Friday. November’s peak was not an all-time high for retail gasoline, but the 60% increase from the year-ago coronavirus-affected trough was still alarming.

Some areas of the country have seen a swifter decline in prices than others. Part of that relates to additional additives required by states like California, geographic isolation from supply, and weather events that hampered delivery to the Pacific Northwest.

In Michigan and Indiana, the average retail price is now down more than 25 cents. The average price of a gallon of gasoline in Michigan is currently $3.152, down 23 cents from a month ago.

“Seeing how some stations posted prices 60 cents lower while others only fell about 15 cents, you can tell there was some profit taking,” said Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum fuel analysis at GasBuddy, speaking about prices in Michigan, his home state.

In the west coast, where crude oil supply to U.S. refineries was affected by historic flooding in British Columbia earlier this month, prices have hardly moved.

The average price of gasoline in California as of last week was $4.67 a gallon, only two cents per gallon less a month ago. In Oregon, it was $3.774 a gallon, just one cent cheaper than a month ago.

The main reason gasoline prices are lower has been the falling price of crude oil, which makes up more than half of the price of gasoline.

Crude prices are still up about 50% from last year as demand has rebounded while supply has been slower to return to the market. Since peaking at about $86 per barrel, the Brent crude benchmark has dropped to about $73 a barrel – a 15% decline.

That’s due to the U.S. release of strategic reserves to cool prices and expectations of more supply in coming months, along with demand uncertainty linked to the new Omicron variant of the coronavirus.

The Biden administration on several occasions raised concerns about the gap between wholesale costs and prices at the pump. That gap peaked at $1.14 in November, significantly higher than the five-year average of 85 cents; as of last week that gap had dipped to 93 cents.

                         STATION OWNERS STICK WITH PRICES.

Gasoline industry sources interviewed say the market’s volatility has made filling station owners wary of lowering prices that they’d only have to raise again later.

In some states, prices vary widely. Not all retail stations adjusted prices after wholesale gasoline prices dropped, said Sal Risalvato, executive director of New Jersey’s Gasoline, C-Store, and Automotive Association.

He said some association members were concerned about lower prices after having refilled inventories at a higher cost, potentially exposing them to losses. The average price of gasoline in New Jersey last week was $3.413, only 4 cents lower than a month ago.

“Some of them might have lost $2,400, which is not a small amount for a station,” he said.

Overall, prices may not fall much further given surging consumer demand, which has exceeded pre-pandemic levels. AAA forecasts more than 100 million Americans will be on the roads during the holiday season – a 28% increase from 2020’s COVID-affected period.

“In theory, gasoline prices should continue to decline but I don’t think we’ll see a 25 cent drop,” said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. Oct21. Manifatturiero. Dipendenti -0.5%, ore lavorate -2.9% anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-17.

2021-12-17__ Destatis 001

                         In sintesi.

– Persons employed in manufacturing, October 2021: -0.5% on the same month a year earlier

– The number of hours worked in October 2021 decreased 2.9% from a year earlier

* * * * * * *

«The earnings amounted to 23.2 billion euros; that was 1.3% more than in October 2020»

Si noti però che con un Core Producer Price Index, PPI, del 18.48% un guadagno del +1.3% resti molto largamente al di sotto della inflazione.

La Germania è entrata in una stagflazione che ogni giorno che passa assomiglia sempre più a quella di Weimar. È kaputt.

* * * * * * *


Destatis. Number of persons employed in manufacturing in October 2021: -0.5% year on year

                         Persons employed in manufacturing, October 2021

-0.5% on the same month a year earlier

* * * * * * *

Wiesbaden – At the end of October 2021, 5.5 million people worked in local units of manufacturing with 50 or more persons employed in Germany. As reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) on the basis of provisional results, that was about 30,000 persons or 0.5% less than in October 2020.

The number of hours worked in October 2021 decreased 2.9% from a year earlier, reaching 679 million – here it has to be considered, that there was one working day less than in October 2020.

The earnings amounted to 23.2 billion euros; that was 1.3% more than in October 2020.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Regno Unito

Gran Bretagna. Prima tra i G7, la Banca Centrale alza gli interessi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-17.

Johnson Boris - Improta 001

                         In sintesi.

– BoE surprises with rate hike to 0.25%

– ECB cuts stimulus but maintains support

– BOJ set for policy decision on Friday

– Britain became the first G7 economy to hike interest rates

* * * * * * *

Come tutti i sistemi economici dell’enclave liberal socialista europea il problema più preoccupante è la inflazione.

Tutti gli investimenti che rendessero meno del livello inflattivo sarebbero in perdita netta.

Sospendere i QE è già cosa buona, ma senza rialzo dei tassi di interesse questa stagflazione continuerà a mietere vittime, falcidiando il risparmio ed imponendo rialzi dei prezzi al consumo, in primis degli alimentari.

Qui a seguito riportiamo alcuni dei principali macrodati inglesi: sono sconfortanti. Gli altri sono ben peggio. L’aumento dello 0.25% è come curare un addome acuto con una mezza compressa di aspirina.

2021-12-17__ Gran Bretagna 001

2021-12-17__ Gran Bretagna 002

2021-12-17__ Gran Bretagna 003

2021-12-17__ Gran Bretagna 004

Ripetiamo solo per chiarezza.

Con l’inflazione al 14.3% un aumento dello 0.25% fa tenerezza: è solo una pia illusione. Oppio ai popoli.

* * * * * * *

Bank of England raises interests, diverging from other central banks.

– BoE surprises with rate hike to 0.25%

– ECB cuts stimulus but maintains support

– BOJ set for policy decision on Friday

* * * * * * *

Dec 16 (Reuters) – Britain became the first G7 economy to hike interest rates since the onset of the pandemic on Thursday, with the U.S. Federal Reserve also signalling plans to tighten in 2022 but the European Central Bank only slightly reining in stimulus.

The different paths taken by major central banks underline deep uncertainties about how the fast-spreading Omicron variant will hit the global economy and their differing views on an inflation surge that is landing hard in the United States and Britain, but less so in Europe and less again in Japan.

While the risk of uncontrolled prices has taken precedent for the Fed and the Bank of England, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde emphasised in a news conference that the pandemic was again depressing spending in the euro zone and threatening growth.

“To cope with the current pandemic wave some countries have introduced tighter containment measures … This could delay the recovery … The pandemic is weighing on consumer and business confidence,” Lagarde said.

In that environment, “we need to maintain flexibility and optionality” by withdrawing support “step by step”, but not committing to a full exit from pandemic support programmes, she added.

The Fed, by contrast, committed on Wednesday to end its pandemic bond-buying by March and laid out an accelerated timetable for interest rate increases.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the United States was heading in 2022 towards strong growth and full employment — a far-off prospect for most European labour markets — and that the Fed needed to treat inflation as the more pressing risk.

Bank of England policymakers raised the benchmark Bank Rate on Thursday to 0.25% from 0.1%, confounding economists’ expectations that it would stay on hold. The BoE said inflation was set to hit 6% in April, three times the BoE’s target level.

“The Committee continues to judge that there are two-sided risks around the inflation outlook in the medium term, but that some modest tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period is likely to be necessary to meet the 2% inflation target sustainably,” the UK central bank said.

UK daily coronavirus infections are at their highest since the earliest days of the pandemic, forcing Prime Minister Boris Johnson this week to impose new restrictions.

A first read-out of the UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December on Thursday showed Omicron had already hit British hospitality and travel firms – a day after data showed consumer price inflation at a decade-high.

The ECB, which has undershot its inflation target for most of the past decade, kept interest rates on hold and announced the end of its pandemic emergency asset-buying scheme next March.

But the euro zone central bank also promised copious support as needed via its long-running Asset Purchase Programme, confirmed its relaxed view on inflation, and signalled that any exit from years of ultra-easy policy will be slow.  

“The Governing Council judges that the progress on economic recovery and towards its medium-term inflation target permits a step-by-step reduction in the pace of its asset purchases over the coming quarters,” it said in a statement.

The Bank of Japan is due to announce its policy on Friday. With consumer-level inflation remaining largely absent, only a slight reduction in corporate asset purchases is under discussion at its meeting.

                         MAXIMUM EMPLOYMENT.

The Fed on Wednesday doubled the pace at which it will cut bond purchases, while forecasts from its policymakers signalled as many as three interest rate increases next year.  

“The economy no longer needs increasing amounts of policy support,” Powell told a news conference. “In my view, we are making rapid progress toward maximum employment.”

Even if the others are not hard on its heels, Powell and the Fed appear to have set the agenda for a tumultuous 2022 as central bankers chart their paths to the exit, albeit at dramatically different paces.

“You saw it in his congressional remarks that were more about tightening sooner than it was about worrying about the health of the global economy,” said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist for Dreyfus & Mellon.

Norway’s central bank, which had hiked in September on the back of an economic rebound, went ahead with a further rise as expected and said more were likely to follow.  

Earlier on Thursday, the Swiss National Bank kept its ultra-loose stance in place with a policy rate locked in at -0.75%. Swiss inflation – while rising – is still seen much lower than elsewhere at just 1% next year, falling to 0.6% in 2023.

“The SNB is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy,” it said in a statement. “It is thus ensuring price stability and supporting the Swiss economy in its recovery from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo

Germania. Cancellierato Scholz e programma della Coalizione. Prevede spese enormi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-07.

2021-12-06__ Sholz 001

«→→ Holding the coalition together won’t always be easy and their plans for a “new Germany” are expensive ←←»

«→→ Some experts wonder how the coalition really plans to pay for it all»

* * * * * * *

«Team Scholz promises a new Germany»

«Germans were promised a new government in time for Christmas»

«Subject to final approval by members of the three parties, this rather disparate political grouping will be sworn in on Wednesday»

«So, it’s all change politically and, if the new government has its way, there’ll be far-reaching social change too»

«Phasing out coal would be accelerated, by 2030 as opposed to the previous target of 2038»

«By 2030 renewables should provide 80% of the country’s electricity»

«And, by the same date, the coalition wants 15m electric vehicles on German roads»

«There are significant, and generous, social proposals too: easier access to welfare and an increase in the minimum wage to €12 (£10.25; $13.50) an hour»

«That would deliver a monthly €500 (£425) per child to parents regardless of their means»

«But voters appear to be divided over other plans, like the legalisation of cannabis»

«A plan to reduce the voting age from 18 to 16 does not appear to have captured the public imagination either»

«The three parties want to completely overhaul Germany’s immigration system as well as reform EU asylum policy»

«The new government wants to encourage immigration; improving the rights of people who seek asylum here and making it easier for foreigners to gain citizenship»

«The coalition treaty specifically refers to human rights abuses in China, as well as demanding a return to the one country, two systems policy for Hong Kong and support for Taiwan»

«Many suspect that, viewed from Washington, Paris or Tokyo, the Scholz administration may not look substantially different to that of Angela Merkel»

«→→ Holding the coalition together won’t always be easy and their plans for a “new Germany” are expensive ←←»

«→→ Some experts wonder how the coalition really plans to pay for it all»

«the worst crisis since World War Two»

«The three parties have very different political positions and visions for Germany ←←»»

* * * * * * *

Germania. 2021Q3, Iacp +6.0%, Autovetture Export -17.2%, Import -29.8%.

Germania. Ambizioni verdi, riduzione del debito, incertezze su chi pagherà.

Germania. Oct21. Import Prices +21.7% anno su anno. Natural Gas +193.9%. Germania kaputt.

Germania. Oct21. PPI, producer prices, +18.4% anno su anno. Germania Kaputt.

Blocco Europeo. Oct21. Immatricolazioni auto a picco. Default in vista – Acea.

Germania. Sept21. Produzione Industriale -9.5% su Feb2020. – Destatis.

Europa. Elettricità. In Germania ed in Italia le tasse pesano per il 49.9% e 40.7%, rispettivamente.

Germania. Sept21. Vendite al dettaglio -2.5% MoM, -0.9% anno su anno. Stagflazione.

Germania. Sept21. PPI, Producer prices Index, +14.2%. – Destatis.

* * *

La Germania ha una pessima situazione economica ed è in piena stagflazione.

L’accordo di governo prevedrebbe grosso modo una spesa surplus di sessanta miliardi di euro all’anno, che semplicemente non ci sono e che non si sa donde il Cancellierato Scholz possa ricavarli.

Staremo a vedere nei fatti, ma sembrerebbe essere verosimile che le utopie si scontrino alla fine con la realtà.

* * * * * * *


Ready for power: Team Scholz promises a new Germany

Germans were promised a new government in time for Christmas, and as the festive lights twinkle on the fir trees in Berlin’s political district, it looks as though they’re going to get it.

Subject to final approval by members of the three parties, this rather disparate political grouping will be sworn in on Wednesday and the era of Angela Merkel will officially give way to a new age under Social Democrat Olaf Scholz.

The “traffic light coalition” is named after the colours of the parties involved: the Social Democrats (red) who champion fair society, the Free Democrats (yellow) who champion business and industry, and the Greens.

They will have to hit the ground running, with Germany in the grip of an aggressive fourth Covid wave, and increasingly tight restrictions on public life.

                         Focus on climate change

So, it’s all change politically and, if the new government has its way, there’ll be far-reaching social change too. It wants a fairer, more liberal Germany which makes tackling climate change a priority

Under the three-party plans:

– Phasing out coal would be accelerated, by 2030 as opposed to the previous target of 2038

– By 2030 renewables should provide 80% of the country’s electricity

– And, by the same date, the coalition wants 15m electric vehicles on German roads.

There are significant, and generous, social proposals too: easier access to welfare and an increase in the minimum wage to €12 (£10.25; $13.50) an hour.

The current child welfare system of Kindergeld – a monthly payment per child to parents that varies according to their income – will be replaced by a new system. That would deliver a monthly €500 (£425) per child to parents regardless of their means.

They are policies which, according to a recent survey, enjoy considerable public support.

                         Cannabis and voting age.

But voters appear to be divided over other plans, like the legalisation of cannabis and the coalition’s proposal to end an old law that prevents doctors from advertising abortion services.

A plan to reduce the voting age from 18 to 16 does not appear to have captured the public imagination either. Only 30% of respondents to the survey approved of the idea.

Another proposal may yet prove controversial too, both at home and abroad. The three parties want to completely overhaul Germany’s immigration system as well as reform EU asylum policy.

The new government wants to encourage immigration; improving the rights of people who seek asylum here and making it easier for foreigners to gain citizenship.

                         Germany’s place in the world.

But how different will Germany look from the outside, and what does the new government mean for Europe and the rest of the world?

Expect, tonally at least, a slightly tougher response to countries like Russia and China.

The coalition treaty specifically refers to human rights abuses in China, as well as demanding a return to the one country, two systems policy for Hong Kong and support for Taiwan.

That’s in line with the EU position, but commentators note that the language marks a departure of sorts from the Merkel era.

On defence, there’s a commitment to increase spending, although the Nato target of 2% of GDP is not specifically mentioned.

Concerns in some international quarters that an even more dovish government in Berlin might walk away from its nuclear commitments to the Western military alliance have been assuaged.

Germany will stay part of the Nato nuclear sharing agreement and continue to host American nuclear weapons as well as replace the ageing German aircraft capable of carrying them.

Many suspect that, viewed from Washington, Paris or Tokyo, the Scholz administration may not look substantially different to that of Angela Merkel.

                         Who’s who?

Olaf Scholz: Many believe the Social Democrat won the election because, in style and manner, he so closely resembles Angela Merkel. Calm and quiet, the former finance minister developed a reputation for caution and prudence, although he won points with the German public for releasing funds during earlier waves of the pandemic.

Annalena Baerbock: She was the Greens’ candidate for chancellor and shows signs of becoming an outspoken foreign minister, having made her disdain for some of Germany’s previous foreign policies plain. It remains to be seen how much power she’ll really wield. Under Angela Merkel most foreign policy was, in reality, conducted from the chancellery.

Robert Habeck: He has led xthe Greens with Ms Baerbock and will now head up a so-called super ministry which will combine economy and environment.

Christian Lindner: As finance minister it’s the Free Democrat leader who will hold the purse strings and much of the power. It’s notable that, during coalition negotiations, despite coming third in the election, his party scored some significant successes, forcing the others for example to ditch the climate-friendly plan of imposing a national motorway speed limit and throwing out a proposed wealth tax.

                         Holding the coalition together won’t always be easy and their plans for a “new Germany” are expensive.

Some experts wonder how the coalition really plans to pay for it all.

And the ministers will take their seats with Covid infections higher than ever.

Germany was already struggling to keep up in an increasingly digitalised world. Early on in the pandemic it emerged that health authorities were still communicating by fax and glaring shortcomings were exposed in the education infrastructure.

Olaf Scholz has already come under fire for what many say is an insufficiently tough response to coronavirus and, having ruled out lockdown measures, senior coalition figures are starting to rethink their positions.

Even before Germany’s new government is sworn in, its next chancellor is engulfed in what his predecessor, Angela Merkel, calls the worst crisis since World War Two.

                         Chances of success.

The three parties have very different political positions and visions for Germany.

That they managed to agree to form a government in the first place is considered by some as nothing short of a miracle.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

Inflazione. Sta strozzando l’export in dollari dei paesi emergenti. Weimar è lì, in paziente attesa.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-25.

Cigno Nero con Pulcino 001

«Inflation is killing the dollar carry trade in emerging markets»

«The outlook for carry looks better for currencies in the Americas, and in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region than it does for Asia»

«A short-lived reprieve for emerging-market carry trades funded in dollars looks to be over, with an upsurge in US inflation making the outlook increasingly treacherous»

«A Bloomberg index of these bets has dropped more than 4% in the past two months, the biggest slide since March 2020 for a strategy of borrowing in the greenback and investing in developing-nation currencies»

«The quickest US inflation in three decades is putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten, raising the prospect of higher costs for dollar borrowers, and less extra yield — or carry»

«Many of these bets are now coming undone due to the growing concern about inflation, and about whether central banks will have to play catch up with aggressive hikes»

«→→ Sharply higher-than-expected inflation readings in the US and China will play havoc with the narrative that inflation pressures are transitory ←←»

«A tightening in global liquidity conditions due to the Fed tapering its asset purchases may also raise some obstacles for emerging-market carry»

«There’s at least some prospect emerging-market central banks will raise interest rates fast enough to ensure a sufficient yield premium to improve carry returns»

«Interest rates are rising more rapidly across Latin America and EMEA»

* * * * * * *

Il problema sarebbe anche molto semplice.

Quasi tutti gli stati del mondo, ma soprattutto quelli occidentali, hanno accumulato debiti immani e queste conseguenti liquidità non sono altrimenti gestibili che con un default oppure con una massiccia inflazione.

Se da una parte l’inflazione brucia il valore delle liquidità in eccesso, dall’altra determina una sempre maggiore pressione sugli stati avvezzi a vivere sul debito.

I tassi di interesse sono destinati a salire di conserva, gettando benzina sul fuoco della stagflazione.

Si aggiunga poi il crescente apprezzamento del dollaro americano e le continue incertezze su quello che sarà il comportamento della FED.

Nei fatti, questa è una situazione esplosiva, che potrebbe deflagrare anche senza nessun altro preavviso.

* * * * * * *


Inflation is killing the dollar carry trade in emerging markets.

The outlook for carry looks better for currencies in the Americas, and in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region than it does for Asia, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

* * *

A short-lived reprieve for emerging-market carry trades funded in dollars looks to be over, with an upsurge in US inflation making the outlook increasingly treacherous.

A Bloomberg index of these bets has dropped more than 4% in the past two months, the biggest slide since March 2020 for a strategy of borrowing in the greenback and investing in developing-nation currencies. The quickest US inflation in three decades is putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten, raising the prospect of higher costs for dollar borrowers, and less extra yield — or carry.

It’s a speedy about-face for traders, who just two months ago were taking comfort in the Fed’s dovish messaging around gradual pace of tightening, and were using the opportunity to pile into carry trades. Many of these bets are now coming undone due to the growing concern about inflation, and about whether central banks will have to play catch up with aggressive hikes.

“Sharply higher-than-expected inflation readings in the US and China will play havoc with the narrative that inflation pressures are transitory,” said Mitul Kotecha, chief emerging markets Asia and Europe strategist at TD Securities in Singapore. “This bodes badly for EM carry trades in the near term as it reduces the relative yield gap.”

A tightening in global liquidity conditions due to the Fed tapering its asset purchases may also raise some obstacles for emerging-market carry, Kotecha said.

Traders could turn to the euro and yen for cheaper funding costs. Both currencies are among the worst performers in the Group-of-10 space so far this quarter, with the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank expected to maintain an accommodative stance.

The losses in the Bloomberg index of emerging-market carry trades since the end of August come after it bounced up by 1.5% that month. The gauge, which covers eight currencies including the Brazilian real, Mexican peso and Indian rupee, is heading for a second annual loss.

Among the worst performers over the past two months, a trade of borrowing dollars and buying the Turkish lira has lost 11%, while investments in the South African rand or Hungarian forint have both dropped more than 6%. On the upside, putting funds in the Argentine peso has returned 7%.

There’s at least some prospect emerging-market central banks will raise interest rates fast enough to ensure a sufficient yield premium to improve carry returns. Investors may get further guidance about that this week with policy decisions from Turkey, Indonesia, Philippines and Hungary.

                         Picking favourites

The outlook for carry looks better for currencies in the Americas, and in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region than it does for Asia, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

The lira, Russian ruble, Mexican peso and rand are likely to generate the best returns, while the rupiah and rupee are less attractive, chief emerging-market credit strategist Damian Sassower in New York, wrote in a research note this month.

“Interest rates are rising more rapidly across Latin America and EMEA,” he said. “Asian currencies have lost their luster in 2021, as the short-dated carry embedded within high-yielding economies continues to diminish.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Biden. Sondaggio Nbc per le elezioni di midterm. Si profilerebbe un distastro.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-14.

2021-11-13__ NBC 001

«A majority of americans now disapprove of president Joe Biden’s job performance, while half give him low marks for competence and uniting the country»

«the survey finds that 7 in 10 adults, including almost half of Democrats, believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction, as well as nearly 60 percent who view Biden’s stewardship of the economy negatively just nine months into his presidency»

«One year before next year’s midterm elections and less than a week before Virginia’s closely watched race for governor, Biden’s lower standing has also taken a toll on his party»

«Democrats face a country whose opinion of President Biden has turned sharply to the negative since April»

«The promise of the Biden presidency — knowledge, competence and stability in tough times — have all been called into question»

«In the poll, 42 percent of adults say they approve of Biden’s overall job as president — a decline of 7 points since August, with much of the attrition coming from key parts of the Democratic base. …. That’s compared to 54 percent who say they disapprove of the president’s job, which is up 6 points since August»

«fallout from the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, rising inflation, disappointing jobs numbers and Democratic infighting over Biden’s legislative agenda»

«The poll finds 40 percent of Americans approving the president’s handling of the economy (down 7 points since August), and 51 percent approving of his handling of the coronavirus (down 2 points)»

«just 37 percent of adults give him high marks — on a 5-point scale — for being competent and effective as president, and only 28 percent give him high marks for uniting the country»

«71 percent of Americans say they believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, up 8 points since August»

«just 41 percent of respondents in the poll say America’s best years are ahead, while 53 percent say its best years are behind»

«Looking ahead to 2022 midterm elections, which will take place a year from now, 47 percent of registered voters say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 45 percent say they want Republicans in charge»

«Republicans hold double-digit advantages on border security (by 27 points), inflation (24 points), crime (22 points), national security (21 points), the economy (18 points) and being effective and getting things done (13 points)»

2021-11-13__ NBC 002

* * * * * * *

Questi dati al momento attuale non ammettono repliche. Di qui a midterm corre poco meno di un anno, e tutto può accadere, ma questi dati pesano molto.

«→→ In some parts of California, they’re paying $4.50 a gallon ←←»

Se Joe Biden e la Fed non riuscissero a raffreddare l’inflazione, midterm sarebbe un nuovo disastro per Joe Biden ed il partito democratico.

* * * * * * *


Biden’s job rating sinks to 42 percent in NBC News poll a year from midterms

Just nine months into his presidency, 71 percent of Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction, the poll shows.

Washington — A majority of americans now disapprove of president Joe Biden’s job performance, while half give him low marks for competence and uniting the country, according to results from the latest national NBC News poll.

What’s more, the survey finds that 7 in 10 adults, including almost half of Democrats, believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction, as well as nearly 60 percent who view Biden’s stewardship of the economy negatively just nine months into his presidency.

One year before next year’s midterm elections and less than a week before Virginia’s closely watched race for governor, Biden’s lower standing has also taken a toll on his party: Democrats trail Republicans on which party better handles the economy, inflation and immigration, while they’ve lost ground on issues like education and the coronavirus.

“Democrats face a country whose opinion of President Biden has turned sharply to the negative since April,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.

“The promise of the Biden presidency — knowledge, competence and stability in tough times — have all been called into question,” Horwitt continued.

“What people voted for was stability and calm,” added fellow Democratic pollster Peter Hart. “And what they got was instability and chaos.”

In the poll, 42 percent of adults say they approve of Biden’s overall job as president — a decline of 7 points since August, with much of the attrition coming from key parts of the Democratic base.

That’s compared to 54 percent who say they disapprove of the president’s job, which is up 6 points since August.

Using Gallup’s historical data, Biden’s approval rating in this poll (42 percent) is lower than any other modern first-year president’s at a similar point in time, with the key exception of Donald Trump (whose approval averaged 37 percent in fall 2017).

Among a narrower set of registered voters, Biden’s job rating stands at 45 percent who approve, 52 percent who disapprove — a drop from 50 percent who approve, 48 percent who disapprove from two months ago.

The NBC News poll comes after a rough summer and early fall for the first-year president, as he’s faced a new surge of coronavirus cases and deaths, fallout from the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, rising inflation, disappointing jobs numbers and Democratic infighting over Biden’s legislative agenda.

More recently, however, Covid-19 cases and deaths are once again on the decline, and Capitol Hill Democrats have made progress on Biden’s legislative priorities, but still haven’t crossed the finish line.

The poll finds 40 percent of Americans approving the president’s handling of the economy (down 7 points since August), and 51 percent approving of his handling of the coronavirus (down 2 points).

Maybe even more troubling for Biden, just 37 percent of adults give him high marks — on a 5-point scale — for being competent and effective as president, and only 28 percent give him high marks for uniting the country.

By contrast, 50 percent give him low scores for being competent, and 51 percent give him low scores for uniting the country.

Finally, Biden’s favorable/unfavorable rating in the poll (40 percent positive, 48 percent negative) is almost identical to Trump’s in the same survey (38 percent positive, 50 percent negative).

That’s a change from the 2020 general election, when Biden’s favorable/unfavorable rating was significantly higher than Trump’s.

                         71 percent say nation is on wrong track

Also in the NBC News poll, 71 percent of Americans say they believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, up 8 points since August.

“When you see a wrong track of 71 percent, it is a flashing red light,” said McInturff, the GOP pollster. “These folks are telling us that this is not going well.”

Asked about the country’s future, just 41 percent of respondents in the poll say America’s best years are ahead, while 53 percent say its best years are behind.

Despite that pessimism, however, the survey does show signs of optimism about the coronavirus and the economy.

A majority of respondents — 56 percent — believe the worst is past when it comes to the coronavirus, which is up 18 points from August, when the delta variant was beginning to surge across the country.

And 30 percent of Americans say they’re getting ahead when it comes to their financial situation, while 45 percent say they’re staying where they are. That’s compared with 24 percent who say they’re slipping behind or falling backward.

                         Looking ahead to 2022

Looking ahead to 2022 midterm elections, which will take place a year from now, 47 percent of registered voters say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 45 percent say they want Republicans in charge — essentially unchanged from August.

But the GOP enjoys a significant enthusiasm advantage at this point in the election cycle, with 69 percent of Republicans expressing a high level of interest about the midterms (on a 1-to-10 scale), versus 58 percent of Democrats who hold the same level of interest.

When asked which party better handles particular issues, Republicans hold double-digit advantages on border security (by 27 points), inflation (24 points), crime (22 points), national security (21 points), the economy (18 points) and being effective and getting things done (13 points).

By contrast, Democrats hold double-digit edges on abortion (by 10 points), the coronavirus (12 points) and climate change (24 points), but all of those advantages are smaller than those the party enjoyed during the 2020 election.

                         Will Trump be a factor — or not?

Finally, the poll finds 20 percent of registered voters saying their vote in 2022 will be a signal of opposition against Trump and 21 percent saying it will be a signal of opposition against Biden.

A majority of voters — 52 percent — say their vote won’t be a signal about either Trump or Biden.

“Little to me indicates that Trump, a year after the election, is uniquely a figure that’s driving the vote,” McInturff said.

Finally, the poll finds 20 percent of registered voters saying their vote in 2022 will be a signal of opposition against Trump and 21 percent saying it will be a signal of opposition against Biden.

A majority of voters — 52 percent — say their vote won’t be a signal about either Trump or Biden.

“Little to me indicates that Trump, a year after the election, is uniquely a figure that’s driving the vote,” McInturff said.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Canada. Sempre più acuta la carenza di manodopera specializzata.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-09.

Giulio Romano. Palazzo Gonzaga. Sala dei giganti. 004

«It’s a perfect storm in the sense that there is inflation, a shortage of workers and the aging of the population»

* * * * * * *

«Canada’s economic recovery from the pandemic is being hampered by labor shortages across industries ranging from energy to aviation to agriculture, forcing companies to consider multiple salary hikes and offer other perks»

«The shortage of skilled and unskilled workers threatens to hurt economic growth and fuel inflation, which is already at an 18-year high»

«Talent is an issue in every sector, at every level of the value chain, in every part of the country, and there’s no silver-bullet-fix at hand»

«Industry groups blame the shortage partly on COVID-19 unemployment benefits that alleviated the need for some people to work, and increased demand for better work-life balance among younger workers as older employees retire»

«to raise the numbers of temporary foreign workers»

«The company is looking for 3,000 workers to add to its 14,000-member workforce, he added»

«In the energy services sector, which is entering its busiest time of year as the winter drilling season gets underway, a shortage of labor has propelled firms to boost wages 10% since June»

«Canada’s oil and gas sector contributes about 5% to national GDP …. the labor crunch could leave companies unable to capitalize on soaring energy prices»

«It’s a perfect storm in the sense that there is inflation, a shortage of workers and the aging of the population»

«But this year is also seeing shortages of butchers and truck drivers»

* * * * * * *

California. Inefficienza dei porti induce rottura della catena di approvvigionamento.

Canada. Bank of Canada inizia il ‘great exit’. Inizia il tapering.

Canada. 2020. Turismo -48.1% anno su anno, trasporto aereo -72.4%.

Hertz dichiara bancarotta in Usa e Canada.

Canada. Il 10.67% della popolazione soffre la fame, e crepa anche per questa.

* * *

Il problema è comune in tutto l’occidente.

Invecchiamento della popolazione e crescente scarsità di giovani, sussidi governativi più appetibili del lavoro, carenza di lavoratori specializzati, repulsa ideologica verso i lavori manuali, continui aumenti dei prezzi delle materie prime, stagflazione sempre crescente.

Non ci si riesce a rassegnarsi che un lavoratore manuale possa prendere uno stipendio maggiore di quello di un impiegato.

* * * * * * *


Resource-rich Canada grapples with key commodity shortage: workers.

Calgary, Alberta, Nov 5 (Reuters) – Canada’s economic recovery from the pandemic is being hampered by labor shortages across industries ranging from energy to aviation to agriculture, forcing companies to consider multiple salary hikes and offer other perks.

Statistics Canada data on Friday showed the national unemployment rate hit a 20-month low in October. The shortage of skilled and unskilled workers threatens to hurt economic growth and fuel inflation, which is already at an 18-year high.

“Talent is an issue in every sector, at every level of the value chain, in every part of the country, and there’s no silver-bullet-fix at hand,” said Leah Nord, a senior director at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

Industry groups blame the shortage partly on COVID-19 unemployment benefits that alleviated the need for some people to work, and increased demand for better work-life balance among younger workers as older employees retire.

One solution, companies say, is to raise the numbers of temporary foreign workers. The federal government and several provinces are working on possible changes that would shorten the process to bring such workers to Canada and raise the maximum number of temporary foreign workers allowed to work per facility, said Richard Vigneault, spokesman for Quebec pork producer Olymel. The company is looking for 3,000 workers to add to its 14,000-member workforce, he added.

In the energy services sector, which is entering its busiest time of year as the winter drilling season gets underway, a shortage of labor has propelled firms to boost wages 10% since June, according to the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors (CAOEC).

To attract workers, companies are also offering more flexibility in the hours they operate.

Canada’s oil and gas sector contributes about 5% to national GDP and CAOEC Chief Executive Mark Scholz said the labor crunch could leave companies unable to capitalize on soaring energy prices.

Precision Drilling, Canada’s biggest rig contractor, is offering referral bonuses and incentives to recruiting teams to help address worker shortages, CEO Kevin Neveu said.

“I’ll tell you, it’s a big challenge right now,” Neveu told a third-quarter earnings call.

Suzanne Benoit, president of aerospace trade group Aero Montreal, said some Canadian companies are considering whether to raise salaries twice in the same year to retain workers.

“They feel obliged, or the people will leave,” Benoit said on the sidelines of the organization’s recent supply chain summit in Montreal, the country’s aerospace hub.

“It’s a perfect storm in the sense that there is inflation, a shortage of workers and the aging of the population,” she added.

The agriculture sector has long struggled to hire enough workers to pick fruits and vegetables. But this year is also seeing shortages of butchers and truck drivers, said Debra Hauer, manager of labor market intelligence at the Canadian Agricultural Human Resources Council.

Staffing shortages may improve as the government transitions people off its main emergency income support program and onto traditional unemployment benefits.

But some sectors could see extended shortages, including in the oil sands’ next maintenance season in early 2022.

“There are just not enough people to go around,” said Hugh MacDonald, business manager for the Boilermakers Lodge 146 union in northern Alberta. “Next spring, I don’t know what we’re going to do.”