Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Materie Prime

Acciaio. Ferro estrattivo +40.38% ed acciaio +29.34%, anno su anno. Inflazione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-23.

2021-07-20__ Steel 001

«Shanghai steel futures recovered to above 5,400 yuan a tonne, the highest since May 18th after latest data showed China’s crude steel output rose by 11.8% from a year earlier in the first half of the year. China pledged to limit crude steel output in 2021 at no higher than the 1.065 billion tonnes it made last year but at the half-way stage of the year, the country has already produced 563.33 million tonnes of the metal. Considering only June, production went up 1.5% year-on-year but declined 5.6% from a record level in May as government environmental controls ahead of the Communist Party’s centenary celebrations in July constrained production. The steel market has been under pressure due to China’s efforts to limit soaring commodity prices after cost of steel rallied to an all-time high of 5,975 yuan per tonne on May 11th.

Steel Rebar is mostly traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and London Metal Exchange. The standard future contract is 10 tons. Steel is one of the world’s most important materials used in construction, cars and all sorts of machines and appliances. By far the biggest producer of crude steel is China, followed by European Union, Japan, United States, India, Russia and South Korea. The steel prices displayed in Trading Economics are based on over-the-counter (OTC) and contract for difference (CFD) financial instruments.» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

«Roaring industrial demand is propelling those rallies, with plants straining to boost supply after lying dormant during the pandemic.»

«On top of that, powerhouses China and Russia are trying to limit exports to help other industries at home»

«That optimism is a far cry from the past decade, when Western makers closed plants and shed workers as low demand had their mills operating below capacity»

«Last year alone, 72 blast furnaces were idled, according to UBS Group AG»

«→→ This year, U.S. President Joe Biden wants to spend on infrastructure, and the European Union wants to spend on reaching net-zero emissions ←←»

«The West’s top steelmaker ArcelorMittal is set for blockbuster earning»

«We could see a turnaround story there because those economies just need their steel»

«Developments in China are key, given it produces more than half of the world’s steel, mostly with coal-fired blast furnaces»

«Still, other Asian nations are looking to fill any potential gaps in supply»

«Biden is determined to make new roads, rail and housing the hallmark of his tenure, while the EU is emphasizing clean energy as part of the coronavirus recovery package and Green Deal»

«And even as demand rises, Western producers aren’t keen on expanding»

«Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., the second largest U.S. steelmaker, is set to tear down its Ashland mill in Kentucky, as well as a blast furnace at Indiana Harbor West»

«If anything, more support is on the way. The EU eventually will impose duties on imported steel as part of its Green Deal, and those will fall most heavily on carbon-intensive producers such as Russia»

«India is set to boost capacity, with top producer JSW Group saying it will reach its goal of more than doubling capacity to 45 million tons before 2030»

«Southeast Asia, including Malaysia and Indonesia, plans to add another 60 million tons by the end of this decade»

«We need bricks, we need cement, we need steel»

* * * * * * *

Messi i dazi sull’acciaio inossidabile da Cina, Indonesia e Taiwan.

Cina. Innalzati i dazi sui tubi di acciaio EU ed USA.

Acciaio. Primo Trimestre. Mondo -1.4%, Italia -40.2%.

China iron ore surges over 50% in 2020, up for second straight year.

Cina. Acciaio +54%, +23% nel quarto trimestre. Unione Europea -30%.

USA. Acciaio. Prezzi schizzati a 1,350 Usd per tonnellata, +33% in un mese.

Thyssenkrupp-Manager besorgt “Wir haben einen Stahlengpass in Europa”

Unione Europea. Mancano 20 milioni di tonnellate di acciaio in un anno.

* * * * * * *

In un anno il prezzo medio del ferro estrattivo è salito del 40.38% e quello dell’acciaio del 29.34%.

La produzione si è spostata nei paesi che non hanno preclusioni ideologiche: Cina, Russia, India, Malaysia, Indonesia.

Ed il risultato finale è che l’occidente soffre di una severa carenza di acciaio, pur pagandolo a caro prezzo.

Non esiste produzione industriale senza acciaio. Ma non è detto che i produttori vogliano venderlo, specie poi a quanti vorrebbero condannarli perché non si sottomettono alla loro ideologia.

Di conseguenza, ed è un ben triste ritornello di questi tempi, salgono i costi di produzione industriale e, quindi, i prezzi al dettaglio.

Tutto concorre ad alimentare un processo inflattivo, di fronte al quale le banche centrali possono fare poco o nulla.

Adesso, il debito junk rende meno della inflazione.

La conclusione è purtroppo molto semplice.

*


Record Steel Prices Inject Life Into Long-Suffering Industry

There’s rarely been a better time to be in the steel business.

Prices have boomed worldwide this year, smashing record after record. Roaring industrial demand is propelling those rallies, with plants straining to boost supply after lying dormant during the pandemic. On top of that, powerhouses China and Russia are trying to limit exports to help other industries at home.

“If you’d asked me six months ago what was my most positive vision for the first half of 2021, I don’t think I would’ve even come close to the reality,” Carlo Beltrame, who manages Romania and France for AFV Beltrame, said in a phone interview. The closely-held company plans to build a 250 million-euro ($295 million) mill in Romania with the capacity to produce about 600,000 tons a year.

That optimism is a far cry from the past decade, when Western makers closed plants and shed workers as low demand had their mills operating below capacity. Last year alone, 72 blast furnaces were idled, according to UBS Group AG.

This year, U.S. President Joe Biden wants to spend on infrastructure, and the European Union wants to spend on reaching net-zero emissions. Manufacturers such as Nucor Corp., U.S. Steel Corp. and SSAB AB are among those set to become profit machines. ArcelorMittal SA, the world’s biggest outside of China, will earn more than McDonald’s Corp. or PepsiCo Inc., according to analysts’ estimates.

                         Profit Machine

The West’s top steelmaker ArcelorMittal is set for blockbuster earnings

Few expect these good times to last through 2022. Keybanc Capital Markets and Bank of America Corp. believe the backlogs driving a surge in U.S. steel prices will start clearing this year. But some analysts predict the current rally may herald better times in the long run, with prices eventually settling at more sustainable levels than before.

“The steel industries outside of China will potentially enter a renaissance period,” said Tom Price, head of commodities strategy at Liberum Capital Ltd. in London. “We could see a turnaround story there because those economies just need their steel.”

Developments in China are key, given it produces more than half of the world’s steel, mostly with coal-fired blast furnaces. The government has signaled it no longer wants to bear the huge environmental burden that entails, so it’s seeking to curb production through measures such as firming up guidance on capacity swaps and removing export tax rebates.

“Restrictions almost certainly will come into place,” said Tomas Gutierrez, Asia editor and head of data for Kallanish Commodities Ltd. “Steelmakers overseas can sleep a little easier.”

Achieving the government’s goal will be a challenge given China’s strong output at the start of the year, said Lu Ting, senior analyst at researcher Shanghai Metals Market. Still, other Asian nations are looking to fill any potential gaps in supply.

Also providing cause for optimism is the renewed focus on stimulus and infrastructure in the U.S. and Europe. Biden is determined to make new roads, rail and housing the hallmark of his tenure, while the EU is emphasizing clean energy as part of the coronavirus recovery package and Green Deal.

That requires steel, and lots of it. Biden’s proposed infrastructure plan would increase annual demand by about 5 million tons for the first five years, London-based consultancy CRU Group estimated. A bipartisan package would spend $579 billion if approved.

Yet only 4.6 million annual tons of planned capacity are expected to come online in the U.S. by the end of 2022, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Andrew Cosgrove said.

And even as demand rises, Western producers aren’t keen on expanding. U.S. Steel Chief Executive Officer David Burritt told shareholders in April the company had no plans to restart two blast furnaces that were shut down last year.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., the second largest U.S. steelmaker, is set to tear down its Ashland mill in Kentucky, as well as a blast furnace at Indiana Harbor West. CEO Lourenco Goncalves said in April those will never return to production as his focus is paying down debt.

European producers are almost as skittish about investing in new capacity after spending the past decade painfully cutting down. ArcelorMittal said during earnings calls that its priority is shareholder returns.

In part, that’s due to fears that protectionist measures governments implemented to support their ailing steel companies won’t last forever.

But there’s no signs of change on that front, even with sky-high prices. Biden still hasn’t repealed tariffs on foreign steel imposed by former President Donald Trump, while the EU last month opted to extend its safeguard measures for another three years.

If anything, more support is on the way. The EU eventually will impose duties on imported steel as part of its Green Deal, and those will fall most heavily on carbon-intensive producers such as Russia.

Other nations also could fill the gap created by China’s restrictive measures. India is set to boost capacity, with top producer JSW Group saying it will reach its goal of more than doubling capacity to 45 million tons before 2030. Southeast Asia, including Malaysia and Indonesia, plans to add another 60 million tons by the end of this decade, according to consultant Wood Mackenzie.

AFV Beltrame could start building its rebar and wire rod factory in Romania as early as this year. The plant will generate the lowest emissions in a steel production unit in the world, the company says.

“I’m trusting that this super cycle will last for some more months,” Carlo Beltrame said. “We need bricks, we need cement, we need steel. And we as entrepreneurs have to take the challenge of transforming this industry.”

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Banche Centrali. Alti tassi oppure alta inflazione. Possono scegliere come fallire.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-01.

Brüghel il Vecchio. La parabola dei ciechi.

«Se i fatti smentiscono la teoria, tanto peggio per i fatti», Hegel.

Fed. Non solo tapering. Il quantitative easing costituisce una bomba ad orologeria.

Canada. Bank of Canada inizia il ‘great exit’. Inizia il tapering.

Fed. Questa allarmante inflazione è proprio quello che avrebbe voluto evitare. – Bloomberg.

Inflazione. Sorella miseria si fa precedere dalla comare inflazione. Adesso anche l’UK.

Stagflazione. Uno dei tanti cigni neri che si aggirano come avvoltoi.

Fed. Che l’inflazione alta sia temporanea è un ‘article of faith’. – Bloomberg.

Usa. Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo +4.2% anno su anno. Fed in tilt.

USA. Crolla a 218k la generazione di nuovi posti di lavoro. Pronta reazione della Fed.

* * * * * * *

«Con il termine tapering si fa riferimento al processo di rallentamento del ritmo di acquisti mensile dei titoli di Stato (noto come Quantitative easing) da parte di una banca centrale. La parola Tapering è stata utilizzata per la prima volta nel 2013 dall’allora numero uno della Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, quando decise di alleggerire la fase di QE. Il termine Tapering non deve essere confuso con il “Tightening”, parola che invece sta a indicare un restringimento delle condizioni di politica monetaria, solitamente attraverso un aumento graduale dei tassi di interesse» [Sole24Ore]

«central bank asset purchases in the United States, Japan, the euro zone and Britain will slide to about $3.4 trillion this year from almost $9 trillion in 2020»

«The Fed plans to keep borrowing costs near 0% and maintain monthly asset purchases worth $120 billion until it sees “substantial further progress” towards full employment and its 2% flexible inflation target»

* * *

«Con alleggerimento o allentamento quantitativo, o anche facilitazione quantitativa, sovente con la locuzione inglese quantitative easing (o QE), si designa una delle modalità con cui avviene la creazione di moneta a debito da parte di una banca centrale e la sua iniezione, con operazioni di mercato aperto, nel sistema finanziario ed economico. ….

Il quantitative easing è uno strumento in grado di assicurare la permanenza dell’inflazione al di sopra di una certo valore-obiettivo. Il rischio di questa politica monetaria è il fatto che si riveli più efficace del previsto contro la deflazione nel lungo termine, portando ad un eccesso di inflazione a causa dell’aumento dell’offerta di moneta ….»

* * * * * * *

«Slowly but surely, central banks are signaling policy shifts»

«New Zealand now sees higher rates in second half of 2022»

«Canada already signaled a shift»

«Fed also hints at exit talk»

«Central banks are beginning to tip toe away from their emergency monetary settings, with South Korea following in the footsteps of New Zealand and Canada to flag a potential interest-rate increase»

«As vaccines roll-outs continue and economies reopen, traders have been slowly dialing up expectations on rate hikes or a slowing of asset purchases elsewhere too»

«The Bank of Korea became the latest on Thursday to signal a turn when Governor Lee Ju-yeol said policy makers are preparing for an “orderly” exit from its record-low interest rate at some point as the economy recovers»

«The shift in stance came a day after New Zealand’s»

«We can’t rule out that the tail may wag the dog, influencing global market expectations of whether other central banks may also take a more hawkish turn»

«Financial markets have already brought forward pricing of the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike by almost a year since early February»

«Over the same period, market expectations from the Bank of England have switched from rate cuts by late 2022 to a rate increase»

«With major central banks embroiled in bond buying and other easing programs which traditionally get wound down first, most rate hikes remain some way off»

«The BOE has slowed bond-buying and signaled that it’s on course to end that support later this year»

«Norway is on track to start a hiking cycle, and Iceland has already begun»

«The Bank of Canada announced last month a reduction in debt purchases as it forecast a faster economic recovery that may pave the way for rate increases next year»

«The shift in monetary policy is starting»

«Hungary’s central bank said this week it was ready to deliver monetary tightening, and Russia, Turkey and Brazil have already hiked»

«The People’s Bank of China is holding the line with relatively disciplined stimulus»

«They will suffer from a double whammy as the Fed starts moving towards tapering»

* * * * * * *

Nuova Zelanda, Canada, South Korea, Regno Unito, Ungheria, Russia, Turkia, e Brasile hanno già iniziato il tapering oppure lo hanno annunciato come imminente. Ma il tapering si associa ad un aumento dei tassi di interesse.

Tuttavia, si faccia attenzione, il problema non è soltanto finanziario, di bilanciamento tra tassi di interesse ed inflazione.

Di interesse anche maggiore del pil è il numero dei nuovi posti di lavoro generati e la spesa per i consumi, che sono solo parzialmente influenzati dalle manovre finanziarie. Molto gioca la fiducia.

A parte il fatto che la Fed h sulle spalle 87 trilioni di debito totale degli Stati Uniti. Un grande fardello.

Nei fatti, prendiamo atto di questo trend che inizia a delinarsi.

*


Slowly But Surely, Central Banks Are Signaling Policy Shifts.

– New Zealand now sees higher rates in second half of 2022

– Canada already signaled a shift, Fed also hints at exit talk

*

Central banks are beginning to tip toe away from their emergency monetary settings, with South Korea following in the footsteps of New Zealand and Canada to flag a potential interest-rate increase.

As vaccines roll-outs continue and economies reopen, traders have been slowly dialing up expectations on rate hikes or a slowing of asset purchases elsewhere too. Markets are seizing on the tightening narrative, with bond yields and currencies fluctuating as investors recalibrate their bets.

The Bank of Korea became the latest on Thursday to signal a turn when Governor Lee Ju-yeol said policy makers are preparing for an “orderly” exit from its record-low interest rate at some point as the economy recovers. The shift in stance came a day after New Zealand’s.

New Zealand’s outlook was much more hawkish than expected and may yet signal a global shift, according to Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ Bank New Zealand in Auckland.

“We can’t rule out that the tail may wag the dog, influencing global market expectations of whether other central banks may also take a more hawkish turn,” she said.

Financial markets have already brought forward pricing of the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike by almost a year since early February. Over the same period, market expectations from the Bank of England have switched from rate cuts by late 2022 to a rate increase, while investors have almost abandoned bets on further European Central Bank reductions to instead price in a 10 basis-point upward move by the end of 2023.

                         Taper Talks

With major central banks embroiled in bond buying and other easing programs which traditionally get wound down first, most rate hikes remain some way off. But talk of a taper in asset purchases is catching on.

Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida told Yahoo! Finance in an interview Tuesday that there may be a point in upcoming policy meetings where officials can discuss scaling back purchases.

Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles said on Wednesday that it will be important for the central bank to begin discussing in coming months plans to reduce its massive bond purchases if the economy continues to power ahead.

The BOE has slowed bond-buying and signaled that it’s on course to end that support later this year. Australia’s central bank has set July as a deadline for deciding on whether to extend purchases.

Norway is on track to start a hiking cycle, and Iceland has already begun. The Bank of Canada announced last month a reduction in debt purchases as it forecast a faster economic recovery that may pave the way for rate increases next year.

                         Turning Point

“The shift in monetary policy is starting,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, Hong Kong based chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, who used to work for the ECB and International Monetary Fund.

Detailing its new outlook, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday published forecasts for its benchmark rate — for the first time in more than a year — that show the rate beginning to rise in mid-2022.

To be sure, this shift is still conditional.

RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said the bank’s outlook is predicated on the economy recovery continuing as vaccines roll out and the pandemic is contained. In a similar vein, BOK’s Lee said the board unanimously agreed to hold rates at a record low on Thursday as pandemic uncertainties persist.

The Fed’s Clarida also qualified his remarks around employment data and how inflation pressures play out, which he expects to be transitory.

It’s also the case that not every central bank is signaling a policy move, not least in the euro zone, where ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta said on Wednesday that he hasn’t seen a shift in the economic outlook to justify a reduction in bond purchases.

In emerging markets, the shift is splintering. Hungary’s central bank said this week it was ready to deliver monetary tightening, and Russia, Turkey and Brazil have already hiked. The People’s Bank of China is holding the line with relatively disciplined stimulus, while others continue to support growth as the virus continues to spread.

“There is growth divergence due to a much slower vaccination process in the emerging world and renewed waves,” said Garcia-Herrero. “They will suffer from a double whammy as the Fed starts moving towards tapering.”

Pubblicato in: Cina, Diplomazia

Giappone. Il Parlamento ha ratificato l’adesione al Rcep. – Capolavoro diplomatico.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-03.

Rcep Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership 013

Rcep, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, indica una zona di libero scambio tra 15 paesi asiatici bagnati dall’Oceano Pacifico, più Australia e Nuova Zelanda. È un conglomerato che assomma circa un terzo della popolazione mondiale e poco più di un terzo del pil mondiale.

Adesso siamo solo agli inizi, ma a breve la zona geoeconomica dell’Asia oceanica assurgerà al ruolo di polo principale del mondo.

* * * * * * *

«The Diet on Wednesday approved the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership free trade deal among 15 Asian and Oceanian countries»

«Under the deal, which will create a huge free trade area accounting for some 30% of global gross domestic product and trade, tariffs will be abolished for 91% of products, mainly industrial items»

«RCEP groups the 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations — Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam — plus Japan, China, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand»

«India was one of the founding members but skipped all negotiations from November 2019 due to concerns that its trade deficit with China would grow»

«The free trade deal is a wide-ranging agreement calling for abolishing tariffs on industrial goods, including automobiles, and agricultural products, and writing new rules for e-commerce and intellectual property protection»

«Japan managed to have five agricultural product categories considered sensitive for the country — rice, wheat, beef and pork, dairy products and sugar — exempted from tariff cuts»

«Over some 20 years, the proportion of industrial products exempted from tariffs will rise from 8% to 86% for China and from 19% to 92% for South Korea»

* * * * * * *

«15-nation partnership is expected to cover nearly one-third of the world’s economy, trade and population and to come into effect from early 2022»

«By eliminating tariffs on 91 per cent of goods, the RCEP will create a free-trade zone covering nearly one-third of the world’s economy, trade and population»

«Japan is the second-biggest regional economy outside Asean to give its formal support to the deal»

«Thailand and Singapore have also ratified the agreement»

«India was one of the founding RCEP members but skipped all negotiations from November 2019 because of concern that its trade deficit with China would grow.»

* * * * * * *

La prima cosa che salta immediatamente agli occhi è l’assenza dal Rcep degli Stati Uniti, anche se molti paesi entrati nel Rcep avevano consistenti rapporti con l’America. È nella logica delle cose che con il tempo questi quindici paesi rinsaldino i reciproci rapporti commerciali, ai quali seguirà per forza di cose anche un aggrado politico. Sarà un processo lento e graduale dal quale gli Stati Uniti saranno esclusi.

Per seconda cosa, gli Stati Uniti dovranno usare molta diplomazia, arte nella quale non brillano, nel trattare con gli stati del Rcep, per non far precipitare gli eventi e perderli in modo definitivo. Ci si ricordi che gli americani hanno il vizietto di voler fare la morale a tutto il mondo, ed il mondo non ne può di più.

*

La geopolitica e la geoeconomia del sud est asiatico è mutata.

*

Japan approves far-reaching RCEP free trade deal.

The Diet on Wednesday approved the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership free trade deal among 15 Asian and Oceanian countries.

The RCEP deal was approved at a plenary meeting of the House of Councillors, the upper chamber of the Diet. The House of Representatives, the lower chamber, gave its approval earlier this month.

Under the deal, which will create a huge free trade area accounting for some 30% of global gross domestic product and trade, tariffs will be abolished for 91% of products, mainly industrial items.

RCEP groups the 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations — Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam — plus Japan, China, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

India was one of the founding members but skipped all negotiations from November 2019 due to concerns that its trade deficit with China would grow.

The deal will be Japan’s first economic partnership agreement involving China or South Korea.

The pact will come into force after necessary domestic procedures are completed in at least six of the ASEAN member states and three other countries.

The free trade deal is a wide-ranging agreement calling for abolishing tariffs on industrial goods, including automobiles, and agricultural products, and writing new rules for e-commerce and intellectual property protection.

Japan managed to have five agricultural product categories considered sensitive for the country — rice, wheat, beef and pork, dairy products and sugar — exempted from tariff cuts.

Under the deal, food tariffs will be eliminated gradually, including China’s tariffs on scallops and Indonesia’s tariffs on beef.

Japan will scrap its tariffs on Shaoxing rice wine from China and makgeolli alcoholic drinks from South Korea.

China and South Korea will abolish their tariffs on auto parts in stages. Over some 20 years, the proportion of industrial products exempted from tariffs will rise from 8% to 86% for China and from 19% to 92% for South Korea.

The Japanese government hopes to put the pact into effect as early as possible as it expects the deal to increase the country’s real GDP by 2.7% and create 570,000 jobs.

*


Japan approves world’s biggest free-trade deal after China’s call to boost Asian economy

– 15-nation partnership is expected to cover nearly one-third of the world’s economy, trade and population and to come into effect from early 2022

– Vice-minister of foreign affairs calls for efforts to defend the multilateral trade system and expressed interest in China joining CPTPP

* * *

Japan’s parliament approved joining the world’s largest free-trade deal, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, on Wednesday as signatories aim for it to come into effect from the start of next year.

The approval by Japan’s uper house comes after the lower house gave the green light earlier this month and a day after China called for the deal to be ratified to shore up the economy in the Asia-Pacific.

The China-backed RCEP was signed in November last year and included the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) plus China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. By eliminating tariffs on 91 per cent of goods, the RCEP will create a free-trade zone covering nearly one-third of the world’s economy, trade and population.

It will also be the first deal of its kind involving China, Japan and South Korea, and comes as the three countries struggle to negotiate a trilateral free-trade agreement.

Japan is the second-biggest regional economy outside Asean to give its formal support to the deal.

China ratified the pact in March when the Ministry of Commerce said all members of the RCEP were planning to approve the deal by the end of the year for enforcement from 2022.

Japan’s government said in March that it expected the trade accord to boost the country’s GDP by 2.7 per cent and create 570,000 jobs.

Thailand and Singapore have also ratified the agreement. The deal will go into force 60 days after six of the Asean members and three non-Asean member states ratify it.

At a meeting of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific on Tuesday, China’s vice-minister of foreign affairs Ma Zhaoxu called for efforts to stick to regional economic integration and defend the multilateral trade system.

“China took the lead in the ratification of the RCEP and is ready to push forward with all sides for the early entry into force and implementation,” he said.

Ma also underlined China’s interest in joining the Japan-led Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which is more open and demands higher standards for trade, investment, competition and labour protection than the RCEP.

“We are willing to actively consider joining the CPTPP to inject a new push for the economic integration of the Asia-Pacific region,” he said. 

Wang Huiyao, director of the Beijing-based Centre for China and Globalisation, said the approval by Japan’s parliament sent a signal to the region, especially to Asean, on its support for economic integration despite increasingly complex geopolitical conditions.

“China will welcome the news. It’s a sign of support for regional economic integration. And the Japanese business community is still looking for a chance to cooperate with China, even though we don’t have a free-trade deal with Japan or a trilateral one with South Korea and Japan,” Wang said.

China is aiming to forge “high-standard” free-trade agreements with more partners in the next five years as well as closer cooperation along the industrial chain in the region, including in South Korea and Japan.

Wang Shouwen, China’s vice-minister of commerce, said in March that upon the enforcement of the RCEP, China would strive to speed up talks on the trilateral free-trade agreement.

Liu Jiangyong, an international relations professor at Tsinghua University, said enforcement of the RCEP would ease the way for China’s agricultural exports to Japan and reduce trade barriers to economic integration.

He also said the approval was a matter of procedure and much would depend on progress in the trilateral deal talks.

“Political tensions are expected to be a big restraint on forging the trilateral free-trade deal,” he said.

India was one of the founding RCEP members but skipped all negotiations from November 2019 because of concern that its trade deficit with China would grow.

In June last year, researchers at the Peterson Institute for International Economics found that the RCEP, which took seven years to negotiate, would add 0.4 per cent to China’s real income by 2030, while the trade war with the United States would trim 1.1 per cent, should hostilities at the time persist.

However, a study conducted in 2019 by researchers at the University of Queensland and the Indonesian Ministry of Finance found the RCEP would add just 0.08 per cent to China’s economy by 2030. Over the same period, the trade war with the US would slice 0.32 per cent from its GDP.

Researchers at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences were slightly more bullish on the prospects of the RCEP for China’s economy, estimating that over 10 years it would add 0.22 per cent to real GDP growth and 11.4 per cent to China’s total exports, should the schedule for trade liberalisation unfold as planned.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. Gennaio. Produzione Industriale -3.9% anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-03-11.

Destatis__001

In sintesi.

-2.5% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-3.9% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

* * * * * * *

Solo per comparazione.

Eurozona -0.8%, anno su anno, Austria -5.1%, Italia -2.0%, Spagna -2.2%,

Polonia +0.9%, Repubblica Ceka +0.5%, Slovakia +6.8%, Svezia +5.9%.

Cina +7.3%, South Korea +7.5%, India +1.0%, Malaysia +1.7%, Singapore +8.6%, Formosa +18.81%, Turkia +9.0%.

* * * * * * *


Destatis. Production in January 2021: -2.5% on the previous month. Production still 4% below pre-crisis level.

Production in industry.
January 2021 (provisional):
-2.5% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-3.9% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)
December 2020 (revised):
+1.9% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-1.0% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

WIESBADEN – In January 2021, production in industry was down by 2.5% on the previous month on a price, seasonally and calendar adjusted basis according to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). Compared with January 2020, the decrease in calendar adjusted production in industry amounted to 3.9%.

Compared with February 2020, the month before restrictions were imposed due to the coronavirus pandemic in Germany, production in January 2021 was 4.2% lower in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms.

In January 2021, production in industry excluding energy and construction was down by 0.5%. Within industry, the production of capital goods showed a decrease of 0.8% and the production of consumer goods of 3.0%. The production of intermediate goods increased by 0.7%. Outside industry, energy production was up by 0.6% in January 2021. Production in construction declined by 12.2% against the background of the strong increase recorded in December 2020 (revised value: +5.4%) and the end of the value added tax reduction.

In December 2020, the corrected figure on the production in industry showed an increase of 1.9% (provisional: 0.0%) on November 2020.

The rates of change refer to the production index for industry (2015 = 100). Seasonal and calendar adjustment was made using the X-13 JDemetra+ method.

Basic data and long time series on the production index in industry are also available through the table “Index of production in manufacturing” (42153-0001) in the GENESIS-Online database.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio

Cina. 2020. Il punto sul commercio estero. Quello asiatico al top. – Xinhua News.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-02-04.

Asean Member Countries 001

«China emerged from the global economic and trade challenges in 2020 as the world’s only major economy to have registered positive growth in foreign trade in goods»

«exports rose 4 percent, while imports went down 0.7 percent” compared with 2019, the total volume of trade of goods of the second world power with the outside world rose by 3.3 percent»

«An increase in trade was observed with each of the top five external partners, which are ranked as follows: 10 ASEAN countries ($685 billion, up 6.7%), the EU ($649.5 billion, up 4.9%), the United States ($586.7 billion, up 8.3%), Japan ($317.5 billion, up 0.8%), South Korea ($285.3 billion, up 0.3%)»

«China attaches particular importance to the Southeast Asian region’s emergence as a major foreign trade partner»

«At the end of November last year, Chinese leader Xi Jinping gave a very positive assessment of the state and prospects of China’s relations with ASEAN countries»

«the “staggering” growth (by almost 19%) of the volume of trade with Vietnam»

«As for the Europeans, they are mostly accused of being slow-witted, indecisive, and still “blindly following Washington”»

«almost a year of this “indecision” has led to the EU surrendering leadership in trade with the PRC to ASEAN for the first time in 2020»

«throughout the past year (as well as before) US business refused to follow the anti-China political campaign of the part of the US establishment»

«The published main results of China’s foreign trade in 2020 do not confirm the frequent prophecies about the exhaustion of China’s potential for foreign expansion (quite positive so far) due to growing internal problems and the global economic depression»

«The country continues to carry out projects under a key national Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) program. In 2020, the volume of trade with BRI member countries, even in the face of a coronavirus pandemic, increased by 1% to $1.45 trillion»

* * * * * * *

L’ASEAN, Association of South-East Asian Nations; è una organizzazione politica, economica e culturale di nazioni situate nel Sud-est asiatico. È stata fondata nel 1967 con lo scopo principale di promuovere la cooperazione e l’assistenza reciproca fra gli stati membri per accelerare il progresso economico e aumentare la stabilità della regione. Comprende una popolazione di 651 milioni di persone, che nel 2018 avevano prodotto un pil di 3,000 miliardi di dollari americani

Sono stati membri Filippine, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailandia, Brunei, Vietnam, Birmania, Laos, Cambogia.

Bene, questi stati, a lungo snobbati dagli occidentali, hanno un interscambio con la Cina maggiore di quello dell’Unione Europea, degli Stati Uniti, oppure del Giappone.

Il sud est asiatico sta crescendo impetuosamente ed in questo teatro geopolitico l’enclave occidentale ha assunto un ruolo politico ed economico quasi nullo.

* * * * * * *


On Some Results of China’s Foreign Trade in 2020.

n mid-January 2021 the PRC published a very noteworthy document summarizing its foreign trade in goods for 2020. Its main summary by Xinhua News Agency is defined as follows: “China emerged from the global economic and trade challenges in 2020 as the world’s only major economy to have registered positive growth in foreign trade in goods.”

In support of this thesis are the following figures: “exports rose 4 percent, while imports went down 0.7 percent”, in other words, compared with 2019, the total volume of trade of goods of the second world power with the outside world rose by 3.3 percent. It’s a very optimistic thing to say against the backdrop of a general depression caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

An increase in trade was observed with each of the top five external partners, which are ranked as follows: 10 ASEAN countries ($685 billion, up 6.7%), the EU ($649.5 billion, up 4.9%), the United States ($586.7 billion, up 8.3%), Japan ($317.5 billion, up 0.8%), South Korea ($285.3 billion, up 0.3%).

China attaches particular importance to the Southeast Asian region’s emergence as a major foreign trade partner. The author will also pay attention to this fact, because it confirms the political message that Beijing has consistently conveyed in recent years: China’s leadership intends to make every effort to create and maintain a climate of political and strategic calm in Southeast Asia, despite the existing (often serious) problems in relations with most countries in this extremely important region, in whose affairs other leading world players, above all the US, are interfering more and more definitely.

At the end of November last year, Chinese leader Xi Jinping gave a very positive assessment of the state and prospects of China’s relations with ASEAN countries. China finds the “staggering” growth (by almost 19%) of the volume of trade with Vietnam, whose political relations with Beijing are perhaps the most complex of all ASEAN countries, to be extremely remarkable. At the same time, imports from Vietnam grew ahead of schedule. Note that the large-scale negative balance of trade with China has always been one of the components of Hanoi’s claims against it.

No less remarkable is the Chinese Global Times’ citation of Vietnam’s relations with the PRC as an example for India, which has recently had just as many difficulties in the political sphere of relations with Beijing as Hanoi. But unlike the latter, New Delhi (as the PRC believes, “blindly following Washington”) seeks not to develop, but to reduce the scale of trade and economic cooperation with Beijing. Which, incidentally, recently made an important gesture aimed at mitigating the conflict with India in Ladakh by announcing the withdrawal of 10,000 troops from the area.

As for the Europeans, they are mostly accused of being slow-witted, indecisive, and still “blindly following Washington”. However, at the very end of last year there was a trend to escape this negativity, when a bilateral agreement on mutual investment was finally signed between Beijing and Brussels. But, as the PRC believes, almost a year of this “indecision” has led to the EU surrendering leadership in trade with the PRC to ASEAN for the first time in 2020.

However, the indicators of the first three major trading partners of China are not fundamentally different from each other, and the position (for several years now) of the United States in third place does not negate the fact that from the perspective of assessing the situation in the region and the world as a whole, trends in the US – Chinese trade are of greatest interest.

And the first thing that Chinese commentators point out is that the same trend in trade with the US that began ten years ago is still in place. It consists in a continuous rise, year by year, in the total volume of mutual trade turnover. That is, throughout the past year (as well as before) US business refused to follow the anti-China political campaign of the part of the US establishment represented in the Trump administration by former Secretary of State Michael Pompeo.

NEO has previously noted that this (understandable) “uncooperative” nature of American business is perhaps the best hope for keeping relations between the two leading world powers from descending into total confrontation.

Quite expectedly, the Trump administration in China was “seen off”, to put it mildly, without regret. Although it took an important positive step by concluding the so-called “Phase 1 Agreement” with the PRC in January 2020, its series of anti-Chinese actions in its final two months in power have been described as nothing short of “final frenzy”.

As for the prospects for China’s relations with the new US administration, they are assessed from a position of very cautious optimism. Everyone hopes that at least the spread of this “frenzy” will be stopped. The PRC is watching the personal filling of seats in the new administration and, in particular, has taken note of the candidacy of Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, who previously served as governor of Rhode Island.

The published main results of China’s foreign trade in 2020 do not confirm the frequent prophecies about the exhaustion of China’s potential for foreign expansion (quite positive so far) due to growing internal problems and the global economic depression. The country continues to carry out projects under a key national Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) program. In 2020, the volume of trade with BRI member countries, even in the face of a coronavirus pandemic, increased by 1% to $1.45 trillion.

In particular, in mid-December a record number of freight trains passed to Europe from XUAR through the Alataw Pass.

An important component of the BRI are all sorts of projects for a (strategically extremely important) land corridor, which should provide the PRC with access to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the vulnerable Strait of Malacca. Apparently, one of the most realistic projects is the one that connects the southwestern Chinese province of Yunnan with the Myanmar port city of Kyaukpyu, located on the Bay of Bengal.

This project has long been discussed, but the decisive step to translate it into practice was the visit of Chinese leader Xi Jinping to Myanmar a year ago. In January of this year, a Memorandum of Understanding was signed between China and Myanmar to address the specific problems of building the final section of the corridor, which will connect Kyaukpyu with “Mandalay, the country’s second largest city in Myanmar’s central region.”

Finally, among the complex of issues that arise with the publication of the results of foreign trade in 2020 of the second world power, there is one of particular importance, associated with the problem of forecasting the development of the “Great World Game”. In the author’s opinion, this case is largely unpromising. Mainly because it is impossible to predict the future with the necessary completeness and accuracy. If one cannot clearly see what “has already happened,” what can one say about what “has not yet happened”?

Who could have foreseen a year ago that SARS-CoV-2, like a hurricane, would appear out of nowhere and immediately shuffle all the cards on the gaming table. There is a plausible hypothesis that the initiators of the First World War did not intend anything particularly serious: “we will fire a few (“devilish”) machine guns, kill a few tens or hundreds of thousands of people, but quickly empty the arsenals, and then sit down to negotiations – we’re not going to fight with clubs”. They underestimated the pace and scale of their own ferocity: they “shot” (i.e. bombed, tanked and gassed) for five years, “killing” 10 million soldiers and an equal number of civilians.

One could, of course, try to ask the constellations on the topic of interest. But even Blessed Augustine spoke most negatively of such attempts. Not of the finest quality is also the information obtained from some “powerful behind-the-scenes forces,” that is, the same slivers on top of the wave of the historical process as any other member of the “world community”.

China offers hope for the possibility of a positive development of the “Great World Game”. But, of course, no guarantees.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Demografia, Persona Umana, Russia

South Korea. Allarme per la bassa fertilità. Morti più numerose delle nascite.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-01-12.

Cina Mar Giallo Mare Cinese orientale

I paesi occidentali od occidentalizzati sono afflitti da una crisi di denatalità che alla fine ne decimerà la popolazione autoctona.

Una nazione è il suo popolo, ma senza popolo quella nazione diventa una mera espressione geografica.

*

Germania, realtà geografica. Nel 2030 mancheranno 5 milioni di lavoratori. – Destatis.

Germania. La demografia stritola Germania e Große Koalition.

Italia. Demografia. 188,721 in meno in un anno, 844mila in cinque anni.

Visegrad. Denatalità, emigrazione, immigrazione e mercato del lavoro.

Russia. Il problema demografico. È in via di risoluzione.

India. Modi. Una rivoluzione nella politica economica. ‘Self-reliant India’.

Giappone. Un vecchio ogni 1.8 giovani. Cina e Russia si leccano i baffi.

*

«Adesso, leggiamoci i dati della seguente tabella, che riporta il tasso di fertilità di questi paesi.

Giappone            1.42

Korea del Sud    1.27

Taiwan                 1.13

Hong Kong           1.2

Basta avere pazienza ancora trenta anni, una generazione, e questi paesi sono destinati a scomparire dalla faccia della terra.

A quel tempo, la Cina e la Russia se li potranno occupare tranquillamente, senza dover sparare un colpo, e soprattutto, potranno colonizzarli con le loro popolazioni, ottenendone quindi un dominio irreversibile. Al massimo, entrando in quei paesi, troveranno un ammasso di vecchietti, ma i cinesi ed i russi hanno per questo sistemi infallibili.»

* * * * * * *

«Alarm as South Korea sees more deaths than births»

«South Korea recorded more deaths than births in 2020 for the first time ever, raising fresh alarm in the country which already has the world’s lowest birth rate.»

«Only 275,800 babies were born last year, down 10% from 2019. Around 307,764 people died»

«A declining population puts immense strain on a country»

«Apart from increased pressure on public spending as demand for healthcare systems and pensions rise, a declining youth population also leads to labour shortages that have a direct impact on the economy»

«Under the scheme, from 2022, every child born will receive a cash bonus of 2 million won ($1,850; £1,350) to help cover prenatal expenses, on top of a monthly payout of 300,000 won handed out until the baby turns one»

«It’s expensive to raise a child. The government providing an extra couple hundred thousand won won’t solve our problems»

* * * * * * *

Per quanto riguarda la famiglia, tutti gli stati occidentali od occidentalizzati stanno seguendo gli indirizzi della dottrina liberal socialista. Stanno facendo errori grossolani sull’ara ideologica.

– In primo luogo, considerano l’essere umano solo come una macchina deterministica economica. Questa è una distorsione della realtà. L’aspetto economico è sicuramente importante, ma altrettanto sicuramente non è l’unico fattore che condiziona i comportamenti. La donna si realizza anche nel lavoro, ma non esclusivamente. Il suo vero posto  nella famiglia.

– In secondo luogo, aver posto in atto una politica ed una visione di vita penalizzante la famiglia e la procreazione. Si va dalla facilità di accesso a separazione e divorzio, per finire ai contraccettivi ed all’aborto.

– In terzo luogo, la lotta contro le religioni, tutte poi basate sul concetto di famiglia, ha infine assestato il colpo di grazia.

*

La crisi demografica occidentale è manna dal Cielo per il blocco eurasiatico.

L’occidente si sta semplicemente suicidando.

Basta solo avere pazienza e saper aspettare.

*


Alarm as South Korea sees more deaths than births

South Korea recorded more deaths than births in 2020 for the first time ever, raising fresh alarm in the country which already has the world’s lowest birth rate.

Only 275,800 babies were born last year, down 10% from 2019. Around 307,764 people died.

The figures prompted the interior ministry to call for “fundamental changes” to its policies.

A declining population puts immense strain on a country.

Apart from increased pressure on public spending as demand for healthcare systems and pensions rise, a declining youth population also leads to labour shortages that have a direct impact on the economy.

Last month, President Moon Jae-in launched several policies aimed at addressing the low birth rate, including cash incentives for families.

Under the scheme, from 2022, every child born will receive a cash bonus of 2 million won ($1,850; £1,350) to help cover prenatal expenses, on top of a monthly payout of 300,000 won handed out until the baby turns one. The incentive will increase to 500,000 won every month from 2025.

———–

What’s behind South Korea’s falling birth rate?

Largely, it’s because in South Korea, women struggle to achieve a balance between work and other life demands.

Hyun-yu Kim is one of them. The oldest of four, she dreamed of having a big family of her own. But faced with conditions that are not family friendly in South Korea, she is reconsidering her plans to have children.

She recently accepted a new job and had felt anxious about taking time off for maternity leave. “People tell me that it’s safer to build my career first,” she told the BBC.

Soaring real estate prices are another major issue. Ms Kim points out that rapidly rising property prices also discourage young couples.

“In order to have children, you need to have your own home. But this has become an impossible dream in Korea.”

She is also unconvinced by the incentives being offered by the government.

“It’s expensive to raise a child. The government providing an extra couple hundred thousand won won’t solve our problems.”

Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Asiatica

Asia. Firmato l’Accordo Rcep. Nasce il più grande mercato libero mondiale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-11-16.

Rcep Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership 013

«The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement in the Asia-Pacific region between the ten member states of ASEAN, namely Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, and five of their FTA partners—Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea. The 15 negotiating countries account for about 30% of both the world’s population and the global GDP, making it the largest trade bloc.It was signed at the Vietnam-hosted virtual ASEAN Summit on 15 November 2020. ….

ASEAN leaders stated that the door remained open for India, which opted out in November 2019, to join later. ….

RCEP potentially includes more than 3 billion people or 45% of the world’s population, and a combined GDP of about $21.3 trillion, accounting for about 40 percent of world trade ….» [Fonte]

*

2020-11-16__ RECP 013

«Launched in 2012. RCEP is a trade pact between the 10-member ASEAN bloc, along with China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand»

«RCEP potentially includes more than 3 billion people or 45% of the world’s population»

«a combined GDP of about $21.3 trillion …. RCEP’s members accounting for around 30 percent of global GDP»

«Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam»

*


La dimensione economica dell’RCEP è circa doppia rispetto a quella degli Stati Uniti e circa tripla rispetto a quella dell’Unione Europea.

Ma questi sono i macrodati attuali. L’Asia sta crescendo velocemente trainata dalla Cina ed in altri tre anni potrebbe confermarsi come un blocco consolidato, con il quale sarebbe impossibile poter competere.

Non solo.

Tranne che per gli energetici, il blocco RCEP è quasi del tutto autosufficiente. Può quindi guardare a Stati Uniti ed Unione Europea come a dei possibili mercati, ma senza dover dipendere da essi.

Stati Uniti ed Unione Europea oramai sono out e dovranno essere molto, ma molto, più cauti nel voler fare la lezione agli asiatici.

*


The Economic Times. What is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade deal?

Synopsis

RCEP is expected to help reduce costs and time for companies by allowing them to export a product anywhere within the bloc without meeting separate requirements for each country.

Backed by China, the sprawling Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is seen as a coup for Beijing in extending its influence across the region and marks its dominance in Asian trade.

HANOI: Backed by China, the sprawling Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCBP) is seen as a coup for Beijing in extending its influence across the region and marks its dominance in Asian trade.

After eight years of wrangling over the details, the trade pact — the world’s largest in terms of GDP, say analysts — has been signed on Sunday.

What is RCEP?

Launched in 2012. RCEP is a trade pact between the 10-member ASEAN bloc, along with China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. India had been due to sign but pulled out last year.

The deal includes 2.1 billion people, with RCEP’s members accounting for around 30 percent of global GDP.

*


CNBC. The world’s largest trade deal could be signed in 2020 — and the US isn’t in it

– A group of 15 Asia-Pacific countries is aiming to sign the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, in 2020.

– The mega-deal started with 16 countries but India decided not to join the trade pact over concerns that it would hurt domestic producers.

– The urgency to conclude RCEP increased after U.S. President Donald Trump pulled his country out of another major free trade agreement, the TPP.

*

After more than six years of negotiations, more than a dozen countries in Asia Pacific are now aiming to sign what would be the world’s largest trade agreement in 2020.

The deal, called Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership or RCEP, involves all 10 countries from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc and five of its major trading partners: Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea.

Together, the 15 countries make up close to one-third of the world population and global gross domestic product, according to a Reuters report. That’s larger than other regional trading blocs such as the European Union and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA.

The mega-deal started with 16 countries but India decided not to join the trade pact over concerns that it would hurt the South Asian country’s domestic producers.

Significance of RCEP

RCEP was launched in November 2012 in Phnom Penh, Cambodia as an initiative by ASEAN to encourage trade among its member states and six other countries.

Those six other countries — Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea — already have standalone free trade agreements with ASEAN. Coming together under RCEP would boost commerce across the group by lowering tariffs, standardizing customs rules and procedures, and widening market access especially among countries that don’t have existing trade deals.

All 16 countries started negotiating RCEP in 2013, when talks for another major trade pact — the Trans-Pacific Partnership or TPP — were underway. Given China’s absence in the then U.S.-led TPP, which was slated to be the world’s largest trade deal, many observers considered RCEP a way for Beijing to counter American influence in the region.

In 2017, however, U.S. President Donald Trump pulled his country out of the TPP and slapped punitive tariffs on several U.S. trading partners for what he said were unfair trade practices.

In particular, the U.S.-China trade war has hurt many Asian exporters by reducing demand for their goods and slowing down growth. The urgency to conclude RCEP increased after all that.

“RCEP was hard fought, but a choice made easier by the calculation that Asia needed to push back against protectionism even as the United States chose that path,” academics from the Australian National University wrote in a report.

What will RCEP do?

The final text with details of the trade agreement will go through legal reviews before being signed and released.

Media and analyst reports have said RCEP is primarily beneficial for goods trade because it will progressively reduce tariffs on many products. In addition, the deal will allow businesses to sell the same goods within the bloc but do away with the need to fill out separate paperwork for each export destination, Reuters reported.

Deborah Elms, executive director at consultancy Asian Trade Centre, told Reuters that would help Asian producers to sell more of their products to the rest of the region.

Even for companies that export goods outside the bloc, there’ll be incentives to build their supply chains across RCEP member countries, according to Reuters.

But RCEP is said to lack the quality and scope seen in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership or CPTPP. The latter is the agreement that replaced the Trans-Pacific Partnership or TPP after the U.S. withdrawal.

In particular, RCEP — unlike CPTPP — lacks the call for commitments from member countries to protect workers’ rights and the environment, according to Reuters.

RCEP also covers fewer service sectors — one reason which some reports said led to India walking away from the deal.

India’s role

India, involved in RCEP negotiations from the start, declined to join the trade pact over concerns that the deal would hurt its domestic producers. India’s apprehension toward the deal had been one of the main hurdles in recent RCEP talks.

Some RCEP members, such as Japan, considered New Delhi’s participation crucial “both for economic reasons and as another counterweight to China,” according to analysts from risk consultancy Eurasia Group.

India is Asia’s third-largest economy and a large consumer market.

But the remaining 15 countries are still expected to bring RCEP into force, according to another consultancy, The Economist Intelligence Unit.

“Without India, RCEP will be less significant, but its path to implementation has become much smoother,” the EIU said in a report.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Asiatica

Cina in forte crescita trascina tutta l’Asia.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-11-05.

Cina

«China remains the only major commodity consumer where industrial production is now higher than pre-COVID levels»

*

«Asia is starting to see signs of economic recovery as it rides on the back of an upturn in China, which is entering a new expansion phase less than a year after it recorded the world’s first cases of COVID-19»

«While international attention has been focused on the looming U.S. election and the struggle to halt the spread of the coronavirus in the Americas and Europe, China has quietly been clocking up improvements in several key sectors»

«After imposing some of the world’s strictest lockdown measures early in the pandemic, China is now the only major economy forecast by the International Monetary Fund to report growth – of 1.9% – this year»

«Official data showed China’s economy grew 4.9% in the September quarter from a year earlier, following 3.2% growth in the second quarter»

«the new expansion phase China is entering will prove strong and resilient»

«As the world contracts by 4% in 2020, China is set to grow around 2%. And come 2021, a key support for world growth of around 6% will be near-10% growth in China»

«China remains the only major commodity consumer where industrial production is now higher than pre-COVID levels»

«China’s imports surged 13.2% year-on-year in September, with a 28% rise in semiconductor imports a boon for Taiwan and South Korea in particular»

«[Seul] Exports soared 15.6% in the third quarter, the biggest rise since 1986 and largely reversing a 16.1% contraction in the second quarter»

«China’s early recovery has also been a relief for Japan, as China is the destination for more than 22% of its overall exports, just ahead of the 19% share that heads to the United States»

«Automobile sales in China are increasing from year before levels after economic activity resumed»

«Taiwan …. Its exports to China rose an annual 22% in September, and export orders, a key leading gauge for global tech demand, rose 9.9% as Chinese orders jumped by almost one-third»

* * * * * * *


Quasi invariabilmente, quando gli occidentali scrivono sui media oppure parlano, oppure ancora scrivono su post o commenti, ci si domanda stupefatti di chi e cosa stiano parlando.

Stanno solo ripetendo la lezione loro inculcata dai media liberal su come loro vorrebbero credere che la Cina fosse.

Ma tutto questo è scollato dalla realtà dei fatti, e chiunque conosca il retaggio religioso, storico, sociale e politico della Cina li legge e sente sbigottito. Per non parlare poi di quanti ne conoscano la struttura operativa statale e la dottrina economica.

Questi commentatori assomigliano ai tedeschi asserragliati in una Stalingrado che mai l’Armata rossa avrebbe assaltato, avendola già circondata. I russi hanno solo dovuto aspettare che terminassero le scorte di cibo.

Mutatis mutandis, questo è il destino dell’occidente: la Cina sta trainando tutta la ripresa asiatica, forse, meglio, la crescita asiatica, piaccia o meno all’occidente, ci voglia credere o meno.

Alla fine i sogni si dissipano sotto i colpi di maglio della realtà: ma giova ben poco riconoscere a quel punto che erano solo deliri.

*

As COVID persists and U.S. election nears, China growth lifts Asia.

Asia is starting to see signs of economic recovery as it rides on the back of an upturn in China, which is entering a new expansion phase less than a year after it recorded the world’s first cases of COVID-19.

While international attention has been focused on the looming U.S. election and the struggle to halt the spread of the coronavirus in the Americas and Europe, China has quietly been clocking up improvements in several key sectors.

After imposing some of the world’s strictest lockdown measures early in the pandemic, China is now the only major economy forecast by the International Monetary Fund to report growth – of 1.9% – this year.

Official data showed China’s economy grew 4.9% in the September quarter from a year earlier, following 3.2% growth in the second quarter and a 6.8% contraction at the start of the year when the domestic coronavirus outbreak was at its peak and lockdowns were imposed.

“The underlying details … make clear that the new expansion phase China is entering will prove strong and resilient,” Westpac senior economist Elliot Clarke said.

“As the world contracts by 4% in 2020, China is set to grow around 2%. And come 2021, a key support for world growth of around 6% will be near-10% growth in China.”

For China’s neighbours, that growth is increasing demand for their exports and supporting activity in their own economies. “China remains the only major commodity consumer where industrial production is now higher than pre-COVID levels,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia analysts said.

China’s imports surged 13.2% year-on-year in September, with a 28% rise in semiconductor imports a boon for Taiwan and South Korea in particular.

The flow-on for Seoul is already evident. Data on Tuesday showed South Korea posted its fastest quarterly growth rate in a decade in the September quarter, expanding a seasonally adjusted 1.9% after a 3.2% contraction the previous quarter.

Exports soared 15.6% in the third quarter, the biggest rise since 1986 and largely reversing a 16.1% contraction in the second quarter.

“Exports rapidly improved on the back of recovery in China and other major economies, which spearheaded our third quarter growth,” Finance minister Hong Nam-ki said on Tuesday. China’s early recovery has also been a relief for Japan, as China is the destination for more than 22% of its overall exports, just ahead of the 19% share that heads to the United States.

Japan’s exports to China jumped 14% in the year to September, the biggest rise in more than two years, driven by robust demand for nonferrous metals, chip-making equipment and automobiles.

That is giving the Bank of Japan some optimism over the domestic outlook, with industry feedback pointing to improving demand from China.

“Automobile sales in China are increasing from year before levels after economic activity resumed. We’re seeing an increase in auto-parts exports to China,” a transport machinery maker in Nagoya was quoted as saying in the BOJ’s quarterly report on the regional economies.

Taiwan is also benefiting, even as political tensions with Beijing remain high. Its exports to China rose an annual 22% in September, and export orders, a key leading gauge for global tech demand, rose 9.9% as Chinese orders jumped by almost one-third.

RISKS REMAIN

China’s renewed growth has been spread across several sectors, including manufacturing, construction, investment and domestic demand.

There are risks to the outlook, however, including the potential that some economies shut down again to tame the coronavirus, a scenario mining giant Rio Tinto flagged in a production report.

While Rio noted strong global activity in the third quarter, it also cautioned that a range of data suggested “the rate of recovery in growth is slowing in most economies, with pent-up demand dissipating, and the rise of renewed lockdowns threatening recovery”.

Further, any escalation of China-U.S trade hostilities or other geopolitical tensions after the U.S. presidential election would also be a risk for Asia’s hopes of sustained economic recovery.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Geopolitica Asiatica, Stati Uniti

Guerra mondiale valutaria e commerciale. South Korea nei triboli.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-09-03.

2019-09-02__South Korea 001

Ci si sarebbe stupiti fortemente se la guerra valutaria e commerciale in corso tra Stati Uniti e Cina non avesse coinvolto anche tutte le altre nazioni, specie quelle dell’Unione Europea e del sud – est asiatico.

Sulla attuale situazione proprio nel sud – est asiatico la Bbc ha pubblicato un interessante report che riportiamo in calce, senza le figure che avrebbero occupato troppo spazio.

Nel novero, però, la situazione della South Korea sembrerebbe essere una delle più colpite.

«Concerns swirled earlier this year that South Korea could slip into recession. But it managed to avoid that outcome after huge government spending helped the economy swing back to growth in the second quarter.

Gross domestic product grew 1.1% in the three months to June compared with the previous quarter, when South Korea posted its sharpest contraction since the global financial crisis. In July, the country’s central bank cut rates for the first time in three years.

Much of the pain has been caused by faltering tech exports, driven by the global electronics slowdown. That trade is crucial to South Korea, since electronics account for around 30% of the country’s exports. A simmering trade battle with Japan is adding more uncertainty to South Korea’s growth prospects.»

Uno dei problemi della South Korea è legato al fatto che

«the global electronics slowdown»

«electronics account for around 30% of the country’s exports»

Ciò che un anno fa sarebbe stato considerato una eresia economica si è puntualmente verificato: il mercato dell’elettronica inizia a contrarsi, ma questo settore reggeva oltre il 30% dell’export della South Korea.

A ciò si aggiungano i danni del duello in atto con il Giappone.

How Japan’s trade row with South Korea could hit tech supplies

«A trade spat between Japan and South Korea threatens to spill beyond their borders, posing potential risks to consumer electronics supplies around the world.

The row stems from export restrictions Tokyo imposed on certain industrial materials that Seoul needs to make semiconductors and display screens.

Japan has also warned tougher trade curbs could be on the way.

The moves have drawn anger from South Korea, and earlier this month President Moon Jae-in described the situation as an “unprecedented emergency” for his country’s economy.

On Tuesday, officials from Seoul will bring the dispute to a meeting of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) General Council.

They hope to convince the international community that Japan has violated global trading rules, and the measures should be rescinded.

The simmering dispute is seen as the latest example of countries using trade as a weapon in diplomatic battles.

“There’s blame to be had on both sides,”»

* * *

Il punto è semplice:

«export restrictions Tokyo imposed on certain industrial materials that Seoul needs to make semiconductors and display screens».

Il sistema economico sudkoreano ha montato una serie di produzioni che dipendono nei fatti dalla possibilità di importare materia prima ovvero semilavorata, esponendosi così a dipendere dai fornitori di quei beni ed agli umori degli acquirenti.

La cosa in sé non sarebbe negativa, se però l’espansione del settore fossa stata tenuta meglio sotto controllo: un settore così dipendente dall’estero avrebbe dovuto essere bilanciato tramite una ampia diversificazione.

Adesso sono oltre sei mesi che l’export della South Korea scende mese dopo mese con variazioni yoy negative a due cifre percentuali.

Questa è una situazione non sostenibile nel tempo.

* * * * * * *


Bbc. 2019-09-01. Trade war drives ‘innocent’ Asian nations towards recession

Rising fears about the health of the global economy have prompted talk of recession, spreading anxiety about jobs and growth.

The US-China trade war is casting a shadow over the world economy and warning signs of a looming downturn have flashed on financial markets.

Recession poses no immediate threat to the biggest economies in Asia, although they are slowing down. Yet some smaller economies in the region – including Hong Kong and Singapore – are definitely at risk.

They are what Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics, calls the “innocent bystanders” in the trade fight between Washington and Beijing.

“These are small, open economies, where trade – and trade with China – is extremely important,” says Mr Kuijs.

Here’s a look at what’s driving the slowdown in Asia’s top economies, as well as the countries at risk of recession:

China

Growth in the world’s second-largest economy has been for easing for years. The latest figures show China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 6.2% in the second quarter, its slowest pace since the early 1990s.

The trade war that has seen Washington impose tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese goods is adding more strain.

It has hurt some Chinese firms, with roughly 20% of the country’s exports sent to the US. But perhaps more harmful to businesses is the lack of clarity over when the long-running dispute will end.

“The one thing that is affecting business plans is the uncertainty of the US-China trade war, probably more important than the tariffs,” says Mr Kuijs.

“The uncertainty is a major factor of [the concerns] we see globally.”

Beijing has taken a series of steps this year to support the economy, including tax cuts and infrastructure spending. For 2019, the government is targeting growth of between 6% and 6.5%.

Japan

Mr Kuijs points out that what happens to China matters a lot to the rest of Asia.

The slowdown there and the trade war have knocked business confidence in Japan, a country also grappling with softer global demand for its exports, such as electronic equipment and car parts.

A quick guide to the US-China trade war

But its latest economic figures were fairly upbeat. Preliminary data showed GDP increased 0.4% in the second quarter – beating an expected 0.1% rise – thanks to strong consumer spending.

Still, the world’s third-largest economy faces a threat to spending when a long-awaited sales tax increase is introduced in October.

“Conditions probably won’t remain as healthy as they are now, as domestic demand is set to weaken after the tax hike,” Capital Economics Japan economist Marcel Thieliant says.

India

Over in Asia’s third-largest economy, growth has faltered amid sluggish demand at home and weak investment. India’s latest quarterly GDP growth dropped to a five-year low of 5.8%. The next GDP reading, due 30 August, could be weaker still.

The country has relied on domestic consumption to spur its huge economy, but spending has slowed sharply.

Car sales are one troubling example. In July, passenger vehicle sales plunged 31%, the steepest monthly fall in nearly two decades. The sector has slashed jobs and cut production as sales dry up.

India announces retaliatory US tariffs

India no longer world’s fastest-growing economy

So far this year, India’s central bank has cut rates four times. The benchmark rate currently sits at a near-decade low.

More stimulus measures to boost the economy, which is also battling the threat of a widening trade conflict with the US, are expected this year.

Hong Kong

The Asian financial hub is fighting the pressures of a slowdown in China, the trade war and political unrest. Some economists expect that combination to push the territory into recession before long.

Gross domestic product shrank 0.4% in the three months to June compared with the previous quarter.

But those figures did not capture the impact of the pro-democracy protests that have gripped Hong Kong for more than two months, hitting tourism and retail sales.

Hong Kong protests in 300 words

Economists at DBS and Capital Economics are among those expecting that third-quarter numbers, due out in November, will show Hong Kong has fallen into a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

Singapore

The trade-dependent city state has been hit by weak global demand, slowing growth in China and the trade war.

Singapore is reliant on high-tech exports – and softer demand for electronics around the world has darkened its economic outlook.

The economy shrank by 3.3% in the second quarter, on a seasonally adjusted annualised basis. That prompted the government to cut its growth forecasts for 2019 to between 0% and 1%.

Oxford Economics expects that third-quarter GDP numbers, due in October, will show a contraction, meaning that Singapore will enter a technical recession.

Trade war infects Asia as exports plunge

Mr Kuijs says the impact of the trade war on Hong Kong and Singapore is “larger than in China itself, even though no one is imposing any tariffs on these countries”.

South Korea

Concerns swirled earlier this year that South Korea could slip into recession. But it managed to avoid that outcome after huge government spending helped the economy swing back to growth in the second quarter.

Gross domestic product grew 1.1% in the three months to June compared with the previous quarter, when South Korea posted its sharpest contraction since the global financial crisis. In July, the country’s central bank cut rates for the first time in three years.

Much of the pain has been caused by faltering tech exports, driven by the global electronics slowdown. That trade is crucial to South Korea, since electronics account for around 30% of the country’s exports. A simmering trade battle with Japan is adding more uncertainty to South Korea’s growth prospects.