Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo

Svezia. Sfiduciato il Governo socialdemocratico Löfven.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-24.

Svezia 001

«Kjell Stefan Löfven (Stoccolma, 21 luglio 1957) è un politico svedese, Primo ministro della Svezia dal 3 ottobre 2014, a seguito della vittoria alle elezioni legislative, e leader del Partito Socialdemocratico Svedese dal gennaio 2012.

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Dopo le elezioni politiche del 2014, è stato nominato il 33esimo Primo ministro della Svezia, a capo di un governo di coalizione di minoranza con il Partito dei Verdi.

A seguito delle elezioni politiche del 2018, in cui il partito socialdemocratico ha perso consensi, dopo quattro mesi di transizione, ha formato, grazie al sostegno dei Verdi e all’astensione del Partito Liberale, del Partito di Centro e del Partito della Sinistra, un governo di minoranza» [Fonte]

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«Swedish PM Lofven ousted in parliament no-confidence vote»

«PM to decide whether to resign or call snap election»

«Vote called by anti-immigration Sweden Democrats»

«Left Party turned against govt over rent control easing»

«With parliament deadlocked, it is not clear to whom the speaker could turn to form a new administration, while opinion polls suggest the centre-left and centre-right blocs are evenly balanced, meaning an snap election might not bring clarity»

«It is the first time a Swedish prime minister has ever been ousted by a no-confidence motion put forward by the opposition.»

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La Svezia soffre una parcellizzazione partitica che obbliga la formazione di coalizioni per ottenere una maggioranza numerica. Ma queste maggioranze raccolgono partiti con obiettivi contrastanti, fatto che porta ad avere governi fragili ed instabili.

E verosimilmente, anche nuove elezioni potrebbero non chiarire la situazione.

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Swedish PM Lofven ousted in parliament no-confidence vote

Summary

– PM to decide whether to resign or call snap election

– Vote called by anti-immigration Sweden Democrats

– Left Party turned against govt over rent control easing

– Economic impact of political crisis seen limited

Stockholm, June 21 (Reuters) – Sweden’s parliament voted to oust Prime Minister Stefan Lofven in a no-confidence motion on Monday, giving the Social Democrat leader a week to either resign and hand the speaker the job of finding a new government, or call a snap election.

The nationalist Sweden Democrats had seized the chance to call the vote last week after the formerly communist Left Party withdrew its support for centre-left government over a plan to ease rent controls for new-build apartments. read more

Lofven’s shaky minority coalition with the Green Party has relied on support in parliament from two small centre-right parties and the Left Party since a tight election in 2018.

With parliament deadlocked, it is not clear to whom the speaker could turn to form a new administration, while opinion polls suggest the centre-left and centre-right blocs are evenly balanced, meaning an snap election might not bring clarity.

A new government – or a caretaker regime – would only sit until a general election scheduled for September next year. It is the first time a Swedish prime minister has ever been ousted by a no-confidence motion put forward by the opposition.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Austria. Elezioni anticipate del settembre 2019.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-07-18.

2019-07-18__Austria_Sondaggi__001

A fine settembre 2019 si terranno le elezioni anticipate in Austria, a seguito della recente crisi di governo causata dall’affaire Stracher.

Rispetto alle elezioni del 2017, l’ÖVP passerebbe dal 31.5% all’attuale 37%, grande risultato che si prospetta per Herr Kurz. Se era nelle attese che l’FPÖ perdesse dei consensi, passando dal 26% all’attuale 21%, la SPÖ sembrerebbe non essere riuscita a trarre guadagno dalla crisi, scendendo dal 26.9% all’attuale 20%. NEOS, il partito liberal, sale invece dal 5.3% al 9%, così come i Grüne, che passerebbero dal 3.8% all’11%.

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2019-07-18__Austria_Sondaggi__002

Se queste proiezioni fossero risultati usciti dalle urne, si dovrebbe formare un governo di coalizione, ed Herr Kurz potrebbe avere molte opzioni.

Dal punto di vista meramente numerico, una possibile coalizione sarebbe la riedizione di ÖVP ed FPÖ, ma sarebbe anche possibile quella ÖVP e SPÖ.

Se però si guardasse ai partiti che avrebbero migliorato la propria popolarità elettorale, anche una coalizione ÖVP, NEOS e Grüne potrebbe avere un senso logico.

I sondaggi disponibili indicherebbero però una preferenza popolare per una coalizione ÖVP ed FPÖ (21%) oppure ÖVP, NEOS e Grüne (23%).

Concludendo, Herr Kurz dovrebbe poter avere a disposizione un largo numero di scelte possibili, tra le quali emergerà quella politicamente più stabile, anche tenendo conto del contesto dell’Unione Europea, ove il voto dell’Austria nel Consiglio Europeo potrebbe far variare la potenza degli attuali schieramenti.

Pubblicato in: Unione Europea

Austria. Il Cancelliere Kurz chiede elezioni anticipate.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-19.

2019-05-20__Austria__001

«Non ci sono alternative …. con la Fpoe una collaborazione è impossibile, i socialdemocratici non condividono le nostre posizioni e gli altri partiti sono troppo piccoli …. Quando è troppo è troppo …. La Fpoe danneggia il nostro Paese. E’ in contrasto con il principio del servizio per il Paese»

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«Ho chiesto al presidente della Repubblica di convocare il prima possibile elezioni anticipate»

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«Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has asked for a snap election after his Vice-Chancellor, Heinz-Christian Strache, resigned over a corruption scandal»

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«The video appears to show him discussing government contracts with an alleged Russian investor»

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Lo scandalo non è tanto di corruzione economica, quanto piuttosto di corruzione politica.

La chiave di volta è nell’ultima frase riportata:

«discussing government contracts with an alleged Russian investor»

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Quando si stipula una alleanza, specie poi se di governo, i patti devono essere rispettati, costi quello che costi.

Quella poi di contrattare un novo accordo di governo con il primo (la prima) venuto/a e per di più stranier0/a è cosa fuori dal mondo.

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Le elezioni non si preannunciano facili: i partiti politici sono frammentati. L’Övp è proiettato al 34%. ma molto verosimilmente potrebbe arrivare ad allearsi ad una Spd proiettata al 27%.

Vedremo nel prosieguo quanta ragionevolezza abbiano i politici austriaci.


Ansa. 2019-05-18. Austria: Kurz, votare il prima possibile

VIENNA, 18 MAG – “Ho chiesto al presidente della Repubblica di convocare il prima possibile elezioni anticipate”.
Lo ha detto il cancelliere austriaco Sebastian Kurz. “Non ci sono alternative – ha aggiunto -, con la Fpoe una collaborazione è impossibile, i socialdemocratici non condividono le nostre posizioni e gli altri partiti sono troppo piccoli”. “Quando è troppo è troppo”, ha aggiunto. “La Fpoe danneggia il nostro Paese. E’ in contrasto con il principio del servizio per il Paese”, ha aggiunto Kurz.

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Bbc. 2019-05-19. Austria chancellor calls for snap election after corruption scandal

Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz has asked for a snap election after his Vice-Chancellor, Heinz-Christian Strache, resigned over a corruption scandal.

Mr Kurz’s centre-right People’s Party is in government with Mr Strache’s far-right Freedom Party.

The Freedom Party leader stepped down after secret video footage emerged.

The video appears to show him discussing government contracts with an alleged Russian investor.

Mr Strache blamed his actions on alcohol and acting like a “teenager”, saying his behaviour had been “stupid” and “irresponsible”, and that he was leaving to avoid further damage to the government.

“I have suggested to the president of the republic that new elections be carried out, at the earliest possible date,” Mr Kurz said.

“After yesterday’s video, I must say quite honestly: Enough is enough,” he said.

“The serious part of this was the attitude towards abuse of power, towards dealing with taxpayers’ money, towards the media in this country,” Mr Kurz said, adding that he had been personally insulted in the footage.

Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen said a snap election was necessary after Mr Strache stepped down.

He said he had talked about this with Mr Kurz and that they would discuss next steps on Sunday.

A crowd of thousands with placards and banners have been rallying on the square outside Mr Kurz’s office, chanting “Snap elections now!”

Mr Kurz has attempted to distance himself from past scandals surrounding the Freedom Party, mostly ones involving party officials and anti-Semitism or racism, but political opponents called for him to respond to the latest revelations.

“This is the tip of the iceberg,” Thomas Drozda, from the opposition Social Democrats, told national broadcaster ORF.

“I expect the chancellor, who evidently has known about this video for 48 hours, and that his coalition partner is drowning in a swamp of corruption, to speak and explain his position.”

Mr Kurz said that this was not the first time he had had difficulties with the party.

“Even if I didn’t express myself publicly at the time, there were many situations that I found difficult to swallow,” he said.

What’s in the video?

The secretly-filmed video shows Mr Strache and Johann Gudenus – also a Freedom Party politician – talking to a woman who claims to be a wealthy Russian citizen looking to invest in Austria.

The meeting reportedly took place at a villa on the Spanish island of Ibiza, in a private room with both politicians relaxing on sofas, smoking and drinking.

In the footage, the woman says she is the niece of a powerful Russian oligarch. She offers to buy a 50% stake in Austria’s Kronen-Zeitung newspaper and switch its editorial position to support the Freedom Party.

In exchange, Mr Strache said he could award her public contracts, explaining that he wanted to “build a media landscape like [Victor] Orban”, a reference to Hungary’s authoritarian prime minister.

The vice-chancellor also speculates that the Russian’s takeover of Kronen-Zeitung could boost support for the party to as much as 34%.

“If you take over the Kronen Zeitung three weeks before the election and get us into first place, then we can talk about everything,” Mr Strache said.

As part of the deal, he suggests the Russian woman “set up a company like Strabag”, the Austrian construction firm.

“All the government orders that Strabag gets now, [you] would get,” he continues.

Mr Strache also names several journalists who would have to be “pushed” from the newspaper, and five other “new people whom we will build up”.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Salvini. Bloomberg gli dedica un altro editoriale. Prospetta snap elections.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-04-16.

Salvini 741

Nei sondaggi elettorali la Lega di Mr Salvini è salita ad una quotazione oscillate tra il 32% ed il 34%.

Salvini ha perso uno dei suoi migliori alleati.

Bloomberg sospetta che Salvini sostituirà Merkel come riferimento europeo.

Salvini. Time lo incorona ‘Nuovo volto dell’Europa’.

Salvini il Grande. Lega 35.8%. – The New York Times.

Salvini incoronato leader degli identitari sovranisti europei.

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Al momento attuale Mr Salvini ha almeno due caratteristiche importanti per la gestione del potere.

È alla guida di un partito in continua crescita nei sondaggi nazionali, partito coeso e coerente, che per di più è al governo in Italia e che sta sistematicamente vincendo le elezioni regionali. Poi, con le prossime elezioni europee gli eurodeputati della Lega potrebbero costituire uno dei gruppi nazionali partitici più numeroso.

Salvini e la lunga marcia verso una nuova Europa. AfD.

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Piaccia o meno, si condivida o meno la sua linea politica, oramai tutti le grandi testate mondiali hanno dedicato a Mr Salvini almeno un editoriale. Stanno cercando di capir chi sia e cosa voglia, ma stranamente non si domandano, o almeno non lo scrivono, quali siano state le istanze politiche, sociali ed economiche che ne hanno determinato questa crescita che lo ha portato a raddoppiare le propensioni al voto.

E non è solo questione di sondaggi.

In tutte le otto elezioni regionali che si sono tenute dal 4 marzo 2018 la Lega ha conquistato il governatorato e la giunta, scalzando sistematicamente i pregressi governi del partito democratico. È un suggello elettorale di non poco conto: i sondaggi vanno e vengono, i risultati elettorali restano.

Trentino Alto Adige. Risultati definitivi.

Elezioni Abruzzo, i risultati: vince il centrodestra, Marsilio governatore. Lega primo partito, crollo M5s

Regione Basilicata. Elezioni Regionali. Risultati definitivi ufficiali.

Italia. Questo anno ancora cinque elezioni regionali.

Italia. Cd passa da 4 a 10 regioni, Cs da 15 a 9.

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Bloomberg dedica a Salvini un altro editoriale, in cui ne riconosce le caratteristiche e prognostica cosa potrebbe avvenire.

«Governing Italy with Five Star suits Salvini just fine and he’s aiming to keep the coalition alive for as long as he can»

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«With polls showing that voters would swing behind his anti-immigrant League if the administration collapsed, officials were pressuring Salvini to end his frustrating co-existence with the anti-establishment Five Star Movement. Heading into that meeting last month they thought his patience might be wearing thin»

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«They should have known better»

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« On Twitter, his 1 million followers can share everything from his latest pasta dinner to the frustrations of Valentine’s Day after breaking up with his girlfriend

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«The League needs more time to build up support in the south and if it ditched Five Star now»

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«Since forging an unlikely coalition with Di Maio in June last year, the 46-year-old firebrand has become the dominant force in Italian politics and the leading light among a new generation of nationalists from across the European Union who’ll meet in Milan on Monday»

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«They’ve targeted May’s EU parliamentary elections as a chance to tear up the bloc’s debt rules, get a grip on the European Central Bank and start a rapprochement with Russia»

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«Salvini has also won a string of regional elections in the center and the south as support for Five Star has crumbled.»

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«The League pushes tax cuts, Five Star welfare benefits.»

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«Analysts have warned for months that could trigger a snap election»

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«The longer Salvini holds out, the more he can steal voters from Five Star»

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Bloomberg è l’unico commentatore estero a capire l’importanza di certi fatti.

«Salvini has also won a string of regional elections in the center and the south»

Questa è la vera forza attuale della Lega.

Facile quindi il prognostico.

«Analysts have warned for months that could trigger a snap election»


Bloomberg. 2019-04-05. Don’t Be Fooled by the Salvini Show, This Populist Has a Plan

Governing Italy with Five Star suits Salvini just fine and he’s aiming to keep the coalition alive for as long as he can.

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Five days after threatening to pull the plug on Italy’s government, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini summoned his lieutenants to party headquarters on the edge of Milan.

With polls showing that voters would swing behind his anti-immigrant League if the administration collapsed, officials were pressuring Salvini to end his frustrating co-existence with the anti-establishment Five Star Movement. Heading into that meeting last month they thought his patience might be wearing thin.

They should have known better. This government will keep going, he told the group, according to two people who were present.

Watch him on the campaign trail – shaking hands, embracing supporters, chatting, posing for selfies – and it’s easy to be taken in by the spontaneous homespun Salvini persona. On Twitter, his 1 million followers can share everything from his latest pasta dinner to the frustrations of Valentine’s Day after breaking up with his girlfriend.

In private though, he is cautious and strategic, says one junior minister who’s worked alongside Salvini for some 20 years. A snap election might be tempting for the party, but  Salvini is playing the long game.

He is already in the box seat in the government and voters have so far blamed Five Star’s Luigi di Maio for most thing that go wrong. The League needs more time to build up support in the south and if it ditched Five Star now, it might end up reliant on former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi for a majority. The last thing Salvini wants is to wind up associated with such an establishment figure.

That’s the vision. The next few weeks may test his resolve. 

Since forging an unlikely coalition with Di Maio in June last year, the 46-year-old firebrand has become the dominant force in Italian politics and the leading light among a new generation of nationalists from across the European Union who’ll meet in Milan on Monday. They’ve targeted May’s EU parliamentary elections as a chance to tear up the bloc’s debt rules, get a grip on the European Central Bank and start a rapprochement with Russia.

This account of how Salvini turned a moribund group into a new force in Europe is based on interviews with half a dozen senior government officials and party operatives over the past several weeks. They asked not to be named discussing private conversations and confidential meetings.

It’s not so much Salvini’s electoral prospects that make the EU establishment nervous – his nationalist alliance is projected to win less than a tenth of the seats in the next parliament. What sets him apart is his political chops.

Since he burst onto the scene a year ago, Salvini has hijacked an EU summit he didn’t even attend, faced off with the European Commission on the budget and consistently got under the skin of French President Emmanuel Macron. And whatever he does, his popularity in Italy continues to climb.

Salvini has been living and breathing politics since his teenage years. He started out as a communist, but at the age of 17 he joined the Northern League, a right-wing group that aimed to see the industrial heartlands around cities like Milan, Turin and Venice cut loose from Italy’s poorer south.

Many of those who now occupy senior party positions have been scrapping and pulling stunts for 20 years or more alongside the man they call ‘The Captain.’ Every summer many attend the party’s tradition gathering near the Italian Alps, where the diehards dress up as medieval knights to celebrate a 12th century alliance against the Holy Roman Emperor.

Salvini took over as leader of the Northern League at the end of 2013 with the party in disarray after slipping to 4 percent in that February’s election. Founder Umberto Bossi had resigned over a corruption scandal the previous year and his successors had struggled to steady the ship.

One of Salvini’s first moves was to ditch the party’s separatist tradition with a push to boost support in central and southern Italy – voters he’d previously insulted. For the March 2018 general election, he dropped the word “Northern” and rebranded his party as simply “The League.”

That proved a breakthrough moment for Salvini. The party jumped to 17 percent of the vote, displacing Berlusconi’s more moderate Forza Italia as the dominant force on the Italian right. And Salvini’s grip on the party was assured.

Sealing the alliance with Five Star meant disregarding the advice of several longtime advisers and jettisoning Berlusconi, for whom the Northern League had been a junior partner in four governments. But the turnaround in the party’s fortunes means no one in the League challenges Salvini.

“When Salvini took over, we were a dying party. So whatever he says is fine by us,” said Riccardo Molinari, who heads League lawmakers in the lower house.

“Whatever he says is fine by us”

Since then, his star has kept on rising.

The League trailed Five Star by 15 percentage points in last year’s general election. The latest polls show it leading by 10 points and on track to win a national election for the first time in May. Salvini has also won a string of regional elections in the center and the south as support for Five Star has crumbled.

The parties’ diverging fortunes are exacerbating the tensions in a coalition that was built across a tectonic faultline: The League’s base is in the wealthy north, Five Star’s in the depressed south. The League pushes tax cuts, Five Star welfare benefits.

Executives from the north remonstrated last month with one of Salvini’s advisers over a decree hurting their business. The adviser blamed Five Star.

League officials are sick of constant infighting and half of the party’s lawmakers in the lower house want to end the coalition, according to a senior member of parliament. And they expect the rough and tumble of an EU election campaign to make matters worse. Molinari this week said the party may seek to rewrite the terms of the coalition agreement if the EU vote confirms they have become the country’s biggest force.

Analysts have warned for months that could trigger a snap election. If the coalition gets past that hurdle, tensions could surface in the fall as the government will have to draw up a new budget at a time the cratering economy leaves it little room for maneuver, an adviser to Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte said.

Salvini is urging patience.

“The longer Salvini holds out, the more he can steal voters from Five Star”

At a closed-door meeting with some 180 parliamentarians at the lower house in February, Salvini called on his troops to stay calm and guard against overconfidence. He told them that the current coalition is the only one that’s possible at the moment, seeking to damp down the clamor for a snap election.

The League needs to have the same hunger this May as it did five years ago when its fortunes were at a low ebb, he said according to an official present.

Even with its recent surge in support, the League probably still couldn’t govern without Berlusconi and Salvini is wary of getting entangled with an unpredictable ally he sees as part of the discredited old guard. Instead, he’s targeting a new alliance with the far-right Brothers of Italy and potentially future defectors from Berlusconi’s group. But he needs the coalition with Five Star to hold up long enough for that new formation to build up its support.

“The longer Salvini holds out, the more he can steal voters from Five Star and from Berlusconi, and build up his support in the south,” said Roberto D’Alimonte, a political science professor at Rome’s Luiss University.

But Salvini’s resolve is being tested. In the weeks that followed the February pep talk, Di Maio doubled down on his opposition to a 9 billion-euro ($10 billion) Alpine rail project. Salvini and his industrial allies are backing the project which the government has already sunk some 2 billion euros into. Salvini threatened on March 7 that he could force the government to collapse “if there are too many noes.”

The following Monday some 40 League officials trailed into the former canteen that serves as a meeting room at the party’s Milan headquarters. They took their seats behind a row of desks – like schoolboys one of them joked later.

Things are tense, so don’t provoke Five Star, Salvini told them. Don’t attack the party or its ministers, he said. The League must not act like supermen.

The time will come when Salvini has to take another gamble. But the odds are shifting in his favor at the moment, and he aims to put it off as long as possible.