«The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) added 300,000 ounces (9.3 tons) of gold to its reserves in December, bringing the total yearly holdings to a record 1,838.211 tons, worth over $76 billion in monetary terms.
According to new statistics, Russia is currently the sixth-largest gold owner after the United States, Germany, Italy, France, and China. Analysts say if the current pace of gold purchases continues, Russia may dethrone China as the fifth-largest bullion holder as early as the first quarter of 2018. Chinese gold reserves currently stand at 1,842 tons.
Acquisitions of the precious metal by Russia reached a record 223 tons last year, accounting for 17.7 percent of overall Russian reserves. Since June 2015, the country has added over 558 tons of gold.
The CBR has more than doubled the pace of its gold purchases, according to Gold.org data. It has been increasing the country’s gold reserves to meet a goal set by President Vladimir Putin to make Russia less vulnerable to geopolitical risks. The Russian gold hoard has increased by more than 500 percent since 2000.
According to the World Gold Council, Russia is not only the largest official buyer of gold but also the world’s third-biggest producer, with the central bank purchasing from domestic miners through commercial banks.
In the past 10 years alone, the country has mined more than 2,000 tons of gold, with annual production expected to rise to 400 tons by 2030.»
Le riserve valutarie ammontano a 432.6 miliardi Usd: nel 2017 erano 408.8 al 29 giugno, e 377.7 mld il 12 gennaio.
«Gold Reserves in Russia increased to 1828.56 Tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2017 from 1778.86 Tonnes in the third quarter of 2017. Gold Reserves in Russia averaged 747.64 Tonnes from 2000 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 1828.56 Tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2017 and a record low of 343.41 Tonnes in the second quarter of 2000.»
«Gold Reserves in Russia increased to 1715.84 Tonnes in the second quarter of 2017 from 1680.10 Tonnes in the first quarter of 2017. Gold Reserves in Russia averaged 717.47 Tonnes from 2000 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 1715.84 Tonnes in the second quarter of 2017 and a record low of 343.41 Tonnes in the second quarter of 2000.»
Per comparazione, riportiamo i dati relativi ai paesi del G20, aggiornati al giugno 2017.
«Gold Reserves in China remained unchanged at 1842.56 Tonnes in the second quarter of 2017 from 1842.56 Tonnes in the first quarter of 2017. Gold Reserves in China averaged 882.58 Tonnes from 2000 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 1842.56 Tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2016 and a record low of 395.01 Tonnes in the second quarter of 2000.»
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Registriamo un sempre crescente numero di previsioni sulle riserve auree cinesi. Queste a seguito sono quelle per il terzo trimestre 2017.
«Gold Reserves in China is expected to be 1813.47 Tonnes by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Gold Reserves in China to stand at 1765.32 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Gold Reserves is projected to trend around 1631.12 Tonnes in 2020, according to our econometric models»
Queste a seguito sono quelle per il quarto trimestre 2017.
Se un certo quale ridimensionamento sia abbastanza ragionevole, i valori di 1,660.83 tonnes e quello di 1,154 tonnes sembrerebbero essere del tutto inverosimili. Nel rendere pubblici codesti dati gli Autori non hanno delucidato il modello econometrico utilizzato. Dal nostro personale punto di vista sembrerebbe più verosimile un assestamento poco sopra le 1,800 tonnes.
Il dodici gennaio le riserve valutarie russe ammontavano a 377.7 miliardi: da tale data ad oggi sono aumentate di 42.4 miliardi, con una variazione percentuale di [100 * 420.1 – 377.7) / 377.7)] = 11.22%.
Monetary policy constitutes an integral part of the state policy and is aimed at enhancing wellbeing of Russian citizens. The Bank of Russia implements monetary policy in the framework of inflation targeting regime, and sees price stability, albeit sustainably low inflation, as its priority. Given structural peculiarities of the Russian economy, the target is to reduce inflation to 4% by 2017 and maintain it within that range in the medium run.
The monetary policy affects the economy through interest rates, its main parameter being the Bank of Russia key rate. Taking into account the pass-through effect of the monetary policy on the economy, central bank decisions are based on the economic outlook and assessment of risks to achieve the inflation target over the mid-term horizon, and also on possible threats to sustainable economic growth and financial stability.
The Bank of Russia maintains energetic communication policy, clarifying the motives and expected outcome of its monetary policy decisions, as public awareness of these efforts may enhance their effectiveness.
Il problema delle riserve auree cinesi è alquanto complesso: da una parte la Banca Centrale rilascia i dati solo quando lo ritenga opportuno, dall’altra assieme alla riserva ufficiale dovrebbe essere conteggiato anche l’oro comprato dai privati. Nella maggior parte delle regioni cinesi, infatti, il possesso di oro monetato o come monile dovrebbe essere denunciato: la proprietà resta ed è garantita tale nel tempo, ma lo stato potrebbe avocarsi il diritto di confiscarlo in caso di particolarissimi eventi. In un certo qual senso, l’oro detenuto dai privati è una specie di estrema riserva di sicurezza.
My best estimate as of June 2017 with respect to total above ground gold reserves within the Chinese domestic market is 20,193 tonnes. The majority of these reserves are held by the citizenry, an estimated 16,193 tonnes; the residual 4,000 tonnes, which is a speculative yet conservative estimate, is held by the Chinese central bank the People’s Bank of China.
To substantiate my estimates on above ground gold reserves in China mainland, we’ll first discuss private gold accumulation in China through the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), after which we’ll address official purchases by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and its proxies that operate in the international over-the-counter market.
The amount of SGE withdrawals provides a fairly good proxy for Chinese wholesale gold demand, although not all gold passing through the SGE adds to above ground reserves. In China, most scrap supply and disinvestment flows through the Shanghai bourse as well, next to mine output and imports. Needless to say, recycling gold within China doesn’t change the volume of above ground reserves. So, simply using SGE withdrawals won’t fly for calculating above ground reserves. What we’re interested in are net imports and mine production in the Chinese domestic gold market.
There is one region that is importing significant amounts of gold from China, which is Hong Kong, though, this likely isn’t exported from the SFTZ but from the Shenzhen Free Trade Zone. The vast majority of China’s jewellery manufacturers are in Shenzhen, and for quite some years gold jewellery, ornaments, industrial and semi-manufactured parts are being exported from this Chinese fabrication base to Hong Kong. These events haven’t got anything to do with the SGEI in my opinion. Thereby, Hong Kong exports far more gold to China than vice versa.
For computing net gold export from Hong Kong to China we’ll subtract “imports into Hong Kong from China” from “exports and re-exports from Hong Kong to China” (as you know China doesn’t disclose gold trade statistics itself). Imports into Hong Kong accounted for 23 tonnes, while exports and re-exports to China accounted for 333 tonnes. Accordingly, China net imported 311 tonnes from Hong Kong in the first five months of 2017.
Exhibit 2. In 2016 rumours circulated Hong Kong’s elevated gold exports relative to gold re-exports possibly hinted at fallacious trade data. This year the numbers show no sign of such activities.
If we apply the same math to Switzerland’s customs data, it shows China net imported 172 tonnes from the Swiss in the first six months of this year.
Most definitely Australia has exported gold bullion directly to China in 2017 as well, but the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has changed its methodology regarding this data somewhere in 2016 and is reluctant to share the details with me. Using my old way to compute Australia’s export directly to China results in 23 tonnes (this number is provisional and will be amended).
The UK, a large gold exporter directly to China in 2014 and 2015, hasn’t shipped any gold directly to China year to date, according to Eurostat.
Domestic mine production in China is not allowed to be exported, effectively all output can be added to above ground reserves. The China Gold Association (CGA) wrote on April 28, 2017, that Chinese domestic mine output in the first quarter accounted for 101 tonnes. Lacking the data for the second quarter, makes me estimate mine production from January until June by doubling 101, which is 202 tonnes.