Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Germania. La crisi da tedesca sta diventando europea.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-04-11.

2019-04-08__Germania. La crisi da tedesca sta diventando europea.__001

Il grafico evidenzia in modo chiaro quanto il sistema economico tedesco sia vicendevolmente connesso con quello europeo. I problemi tedeschi non sono un loro fatto domestico, bensì faccende che riguardano tutta la Unione Europea, e viceversa.

Destatis. 2019-04-05. Production in February 2019: seasonally adjusted increase of 0.7% on the previous month

«February 2019 (provisional): production in industry. +0.7% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted) -0.4% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

January 2019 (revised): production in industry. 0.0% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted) -2.7% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)»

*

Destatis. 2019-04-05. Manufacturing in February 2019: New orders -4.2% seasonally adjusted on the previous month

«February 2019 (provisional): new orders in manufacturing. -4.2% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted) -8.4% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

January 2019 (revised): new orders in manufacturing. -2.1% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted) -3.6% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)»

*

Manufacturing PMI falls to lowest since July 2012 as decline in order books gathers pace.

«- Headline PMI slumps to 80-month low of 44.1

– New orders post steepest drop since April 2009

– Employment falls for first time in three years, albeit slightly. ….

The deterioration in performance was underpinned by a sharp and accelerated decrease in new orders, which was in turn partly driven a further slump in export sales. Both total order books and new business from abroad fell at the fastest rate since April 2009.»

Deutsche Welle. 2019-04-07. Protesters rally against ‘rental insanity’ in large German cities

«Rents have risen sharply in Berlin and other German cities during the past decade. At a Berlin protest, housing activists demanded the government hit back by expropriating real estate from big rental companies.

Thousands of people took to the streets in the German capital, Berlin, on Saturday to protest against rising rents, with other protests also staged in Cologne, Frankfurt and Munich.»

* * * * * * *

La comparsa di manifestazioni di piazza, in questo caso contro il mercato degli affitti semplicemente impazzito, potrebbe essere lo spartiacque che segna la mutazione dei tempi. I tedeschi sono plantigradi nello scendere in piazza, ma sono altrettanto lenti a lasciarla.

I dati evidenziano come gli ordini all’industria si siano contratti severamente, -8.4% a/a. Ma alla contrazione degli ordini segue il calo della produzione, ed a questo consegue calo del fatturato e della manodopera impiegata. Il denaro circola stentatamente, e si innesca in questa maniera una spirale negativa.

I presupposti sui quali si basava il modello delle esportazioni tedesche sono venuti a meno. L’Amministrazione americana è stata la prima e rendersene conto, ed a trarne le debite conseguenze.

«There’s no question that the German economy has hit a difficult patch»

*

«The widest measure of economic activity, gross domestic product (GDP), declined in the third quarter of last year by 0.2% and failed to grow in the following three months.  In terms of recession, as widely defined (two consecutive quarters of contraction), that is a very near miss indeed.»

*

«Growth in the the eurozone as a whole has slowed.»

*

«nI part, that reflects Germany’s situation. It accounts for 29% of eurozone economic activity, so weakness in Germany drags down the average even if nothing changes anywhere else. »

*

«Some eurozone countries don’t seem to have lost momentum to any great extent so far. Among the large economies Spain is the obvious example. But others have had a setback, notably Italy, which is in recession.»

*

«Eurozone unemployment varies widely. It is down from the highest levels it reached during the eurozone crisis, very sharply in some cases. But at 7.8%, it is still fairly high. Unemployment is still in double figures in three countries: Italy, Spain and Greece, where the figure is 18%.»

*

«China’s economic slowdown has weakened demand for foreign goods and it’s an important market for Germany.»

*

«Can the European Central Bank do anything?»

*

«The European Central Bank (ECB) already has interest rates at or close to the lowest level they can be. Its main rate is zero and one – the deposit rate for money held overnight for commercial banks – is even lower; it’s negative»

*

«For some types of asset the ECB is approaching the maximum amount it wants to hold – to avoid distorting the market too much»

*

«”Printing money” as the programme is sometimes called can conjure up fears of high inflation and Germany has had seriously disruptive episodes of that in the first half of the twentieth century.»

*

«Another option to stimulate economic activity in a slowdown is the government finances: tax cuts or spending increases. Many economists would argue that Germany has the scope to do that.»

* * * * * * * *

Sicuramente il problema nella sua globalità è più mondiale che europeo e più europeo che tedesco.

Ma puntualizzato questo importante statement, emergono anche evidenti le lacune politiche del governo tedesco.

Il suo comparto produttivo sta soffrendo sotto una pletora di leggi, norme e regolamenti troppo cogenti e vincolanti, che pongono limitazioni irrealistiche.

A ciò si aggiunga che il comparto produttivo tende a ragionare su archi temporali lunghi: i tempi che intercorrono tra la progettazione di un impianto e la fine del suo ammortamento si aggirano attorno ai dieci anni.

Il quesito si ripropone quindi in altri termini: cosa sarà il mondo e la Germania tra dieci anni?

Non a caso i problemi demografici tedeschi sono stati ben a fondo studiati dalla grande industria: la denatalità degli autoctoni impone la fuga dalla Germania.

La risposta è sotto il naso di tutti.

Daimler opens Mercedes-Benz plant in Moscow region

Putin opens new Mercedes-Benz assembly plant near Moscow

*

Chi abbia orecchi, intenda.


Bbc. 2019-04-07. Germany’s economy: Should we be worried?

It has been a poor week for German economic news.

On Friday, we learned that industrial production in February – excluding energy and construction – had fallen.

The previous day, new official data showed that manufacturing orders also declined in the same month.

At the start of the week, another survey of the same sector reported new orders and export sales “falling at rates not seen since the global financial crisis”.

We look at what’s gone wrong for the German industrial machine.

How bad is the German economic situation?

There’s no question that the German economy has hit a difficult patch. The widest measure of economic activity, gross domestic product (GDP), declined in the third quarter of last year by 0.2% and failed to grow in the following three months.

In terms of recession, as widely defined (two consecutive quarters of contraction), that is a very near miss indeed.

That said, the jobs market in Germany is still in pretty decent health. The unemployment rate is one of the lowest in the world at 3.1%.

Among the rich countries, only the Czech Republic, Iceland and Japan have lower figures. Germany’s unemployment rate has continued to decline during this period of weak GDP performance.

Another way of looking at it is the employment rate – the percentage of the working age population who do have jobs (or self-employment). That continued to grow in the last two quarters of 2018; by 0.2% in each period.

t’s also worth noting that other business surveys this week have been much more upbeat, pointing to continued expansion in services and construction.

But manufacturing is going through a more difficult spell.

What about the rest of the eurozone?

Growth in the the eurozone as a whole has slowed.

In part, that reflects Germany’s situation. It accounts for 29% of eurozone economic activity, so weakness in Germany drags down the average even if nothing changes anywhere else.

Some eurozone countries don’t seem to have lost momentum to any great extent so far. Among the large economies Spain is the obvious example.

But others have had a setback, notably Italy, which is in recession.

The country has a persistent problem with weak growth. Growth has never been strong and went into reverse last year. In fact, the Italian economy is still smaller than it was before the financial crisis a decade ago.

Eurozone unemployment varies widely. It is down from the highest levels it reached during the eurozone crisis, very sharply in some cases.

But at 7.8%, it is still fairly high. Unemployment is still in double figures in three countries: Italy, Spain and Greece, where the figure is 18%.

Why are Germany and the eurozone struggling?

The recovery after the eurozone financial crisis was never that strong.

But in the last year or so, the region has been hit by adverse trade winds. It matters particularly to Germany, which is Europe’s leading goods exporter and number three globally (after China and the US).

There are several factors. China’s economic slowdown has weakened demand for foreign goods and it’s an important market for Germany.

President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium are also an issue. Looking ahead the possibility that he might impose tariffs on cars could do a lot more damage to Germany.

The uncertainty associated with Brexit is also a factor mentioned by German firms in their survey responses.

There have also been some temporary factors that have contributed to Germany’s problems.

New emissions testing procedures set back car production last year and low water levels on the Rhine restricted cargo traffic for a time. The river is a very important transport route for German industry.

Can the European Central Bank do anything?

Using economic policy to tackle this slowdown is challenging. The options available to policymakers are seriously constrained.

The European Central Bank (ECB) already has interest rates at or close to the lowest level they can be. Its main rate is zero and one – the deposit rate for money held overnight for commercial banks – is even lower; it’s negative.

The ECB halted its “quantitative easing” policy of buying financial assets with newly created money at the end of last year.

Reviving them is certainly possible, but there are complications.

For some types of asset the ECB is approaching the maximum amount it wants to hold – to avoid distorting the market too much.

And politically it would be difficult especially in Germany where the programme was always viewed with unease.

“Printing money” as the programme is sometimes called can conjure up fears of high inflation and Germany has had seriously disruptive episodes of that in the first half of the twentieth century.

What about governments?

Another option to stimulate economic activity in a slowdown is the government finances: tax cuts or spending increases.

Many economists would argue that Germany has the scope to do that.

The government currently spends less than it collects in taxes. But it is reluctant to use its finances as a stimulus.

There are legal restrictions in German law and the whole thrust of eurozone policy on government finances has been affected by the experience of the government debt crisis earlier in the decade.

Even if Germany does have some room in principle to use its finances to stimulate the economy, others have less.

The most recent assessment by the European Commission concluded that there was still a need for “prudent” policies to ensure the sustainability of government finances.

Some, critics, however think that the EU’s rules for eurozone government finances are too restrictive.

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Senza categoria, Unione Europea

Germania. Ordini Industria -4.2%, -8.4% a/a.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-04-04.

2019-04-04__Destatis__001

«- February 2019 (provisional): new orders in manufacturing

-4.2% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)

-8.4% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)»

*

«Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing had decreased in February 2019 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 4.2% on the previous month»

*

«Domestic orders decreased by 1.6% and foreign orders fell by 6.0% in February 2019 on the previous month»

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«New orders from the euro area were down 2.9%, new orders from other countries decreased 7.9% compared to January 2019»

*

«The manufacturers of capital goods showed decreases of 6.0% on the previous month»

*

«For consumer goods, a decrease in new orders of 3.5% was recorded.»

* * * * * * *

La Germania è entrata in una fase recessiva dalla quale non riuscirà ad uscirne se non quando si sarà liberata di Frau Merkel.

L’industria tedesca, una volta fiore all’occhiello di quel paese, sta agonizzando sotto un cumulo di leggi, regolamenti e normativi che godono tutti della comune caratteristica di essere contrari al più comune buon senso.

Ma se fosse solo per questo, si andrebbe ancora bene. Commerzbank e Deutsche Bank sono sull’orlo del fallimento.

Siamo perfettamente consci che tale terminologia non rientra nel politicamente corretto, ma la fuga dalla Germania alla quale stiamo assistendo ricorda quella dei tedeschi incalzati dall’Armata Rossa.

*


Destatis. 2019-04-04. Manufacturing in February 2019: New orders -4.2% seasonally adjusted on the previous month

Pressrelease #132 from April 4, 2019.

– February 2019 (provisional): new orders in manufacturing

-4.2% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)

-8.4% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

– January 2019 (revised): new orders in manufacturing

-2.1% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)

-3.6% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

*

WIESBADEN – Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing had decreased in February 2019 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 4.2% on the previous month. For January 2019, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in a decrease of 2.1% compared with December 2018 (provisional: -2.6%). Price-adjusted new orders without major orders in manufacturing had decreased in February 2019 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 2.7% on the previous month.

Domestic orders decreased by 1.6% and foreign orders fell by 6.0% in February 2019 on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were down 2.9%, new orders from other countries decreased 7.9% compared to January 2019.

In February 2019 the manufacturers of intermediate goods saw new orders fall by 0.9% compared with January 2019. The manufacturers of capital goods showed decreases of 6.0% on the previous month. For consumer goods, a decrease in new orders of 3.5% was recorded.

Turnover -1.1% seasonally adjusted on the previous month

The price-adjusted turnover in manufacturing in February 2019 was down a seasonally and calendar adjusted 1.1% on the previous month. In January 2019, the corrected figure showed an increase of 0.9% to December 2018 (provisional: +0.6%).

The data shown here on new orders and turnover are based on the volume index of manufacturing, seasonally and calendar adjusted by means of X13 JDemetra+. (The underlying mathematical-statistical method is not fundamentally different from the previously applied method X-12-ARIMA.)

New orders and turnover are covered and evaluated in accordance with the Classification of Economic Activities, 2008 edition (WZ 2008). New orders are covered only in selected economic branches of manufacturing.

Detailed data and long time series are available from the GENESIS-Online database (indices of new orders 42151 and indices of turnover 42152).

* * *


Sole 24 Ore. 2019-04-04. Germania, crollano gli ordini all’industria. Stima Pil 2019 tagliata a +0,8%

Dalla Germania arrivano nuovi, pesanti segnali di frenata, con gli ordini industriali in pesante flessione e le stime di crescita per il 2019 aggiornate al ribasso dai cinque principali istituti economici.

Gli ordini sono crollati inaspettatamente a febbraio, segnando un -4,2% congiunturale, il ribasso più forte da due anni, smentendo le attese di un incremento dello 0,3%. Su base annua si è registrata una flessione dell’8,4%, che è la più pesante in dieci anni. Il ministero dell’Economia tedesco ha osservato che l’attività manifatturiera, già in frenata del 2,1% a gennaio, «continuerà ad essere debole nei prossimi mesi, in particolare per la scarsa domanda estera». I dati hanno infatti rilevato un calo del 6% degli ordini dall’estero.

Un’altra doccia fredda, seppure meno inattesa, è arrivata dalla revisione al ribasso delle stime di crescita per il 2019 da parte dei principali istituti di ricerca tedeschi. Ifo, Ivw, Diw, IfW e Rwi hanno tagliato le previsioni allo 0,8%, meno della metà dell’1,9% stimato a settembre. In questo caso va detto tuttavia che lo stesso governo aveva già ridimensionato le attese, indicando a gennaio un incremento stimato del Pil pari all’1%, così come il Consiglio degli esperti economici tedeschi, che a febbraio aveva fatto previsioni analoghe a quelle di oggi.

A pesare sulla maggiore economia dell’Eurozona sono soprattutto le tensioni commerciali e la Brexit, considerando che Stati Uniti e Gran Bretagna sono due dei principali partner di Berlino; si aggiugono inoltre le incertezze sull’andamento dell’economia cinese. «Le difficoltà della produzione interna e la portata del rallentamento dell’economia globale sono stati sottovalutati» si legge nel report pubblicato oggi, ma i rischi di una «recessione pronunciata» sono bassi purché non si intensifichino le turbolenze politiche.

Anche il report punta dunque il dito sulle difficoltà della produzione industriale, già evidenti nella seconda metà del 2018 e confermate dal dato di oggi sugli ordini.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Sistemi Economici, Sistemi Politici

Germania. Merkel. La recessione è in atto e potrebbe anche essere violenta.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-04-03.

Das Brandenburger Tor in Berlin

Recessione. La parola che nessuno vorrebbe leggere o sentire.

Europa. Germania. La recessione è sempre più probabile.

«For the export-oriented German economy, this risk-cocktail is anything but advantageous.»

Italia. Crisi in vista. Liquidità bancarie salite al 32%, 1,371 miliardi.

Usa. Tassi di interesse nella crux desperationis. La crisi si avvicina.

Ecb. Nuovo Ltro. Intanto il rapporto EurUsd vale

Siamo chiari.

Se la situazione fosse buona e tutto stesse andando per il meglio, la banca centrale europea non avrebbe ripristinato il programma Ltro.

* * *

Giorno dopo giorno si stanno evidenziando segni che prospettano la concreta possibilità di una severa crisi e recessione., e la Germania potrebbe essere uno dei primi paesi coinvolti. Se tutto questo è ben chiaro ai governanti, lo è molto meno alla gente comune.

«Germany is quietly preparing plans to fight a recession»

*

«Some politicians worry voters are unprepared for what’s ahead»

*

«Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government senses trouble brewing for the German economy, but voters don’t see the storm clouds»

*

«There are many global risks currently overshadowing the economy, …. If global risks accumulate further, it might be too much for growth to be sustained»

*

«Merkel herself has carefully avoided setting off any alarm bells, even as Brexit, China’s slowdown and U.S. trade tensions weigh on Germany»

*

«Bracing for a worst case, the government is prepared to pass a set of recession-busting measures ranging from tax cuts to investment incentives, according to people familiar with the government’s plans, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private»

*

«President Donald Trump’s America First protectionism has knocked Germany’s export machine off track»

* * * * * * * *

Il punto cardine da comprendere è racchiuso in pochissime parole:

«Bracing for a worst case».

Essere possibile non significa essere probabile e, tanto meno, essere in atto.

Esattamente come l’essere probabile non implica assolutamente il concretizzarsi dell’evento.

Quando però il possibile evento potrebbe rivelarsi drammatico, sarebbe improvvido non valutarlo.

Porre in opera le scale antincendio non significa che a breve si debba manifestare l’incendio: ma non allestirle sarebbe criminale omissione.

Ciò premesso, per cercare di evitare falsi allarmismi oppure ingenui ottimismi, sarebbe da ricordarsi come questo anno elettorale ostacoli in modo consistente l’operato dei politici.

«Some politicians worry voters are unprepared for what’s ahead …. voters don’t see the storm clouds»

Ci si pone quindi una domanda.

È più importante un sereno rinnovo elettorale oppure che la gente sia resa edotta di quanto stia accadendo?


Bloomberg. 2019-03-28. Merkel Doesn’t Want to Tell Germans the Good Times May Be Over

– Germany is quietly preparing plans to fight a recession

– Some politicians worry voters are unprepared for what’s ahead

*

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government senses trouble brewing for the German economy, but voters don’t see the storm clouds.

That’s creating a conundrum for German officials on how to head off risks without sapping further momentum as Merkel enters the final years of her political career. While the government forecasts only a brief slowdown before growth picks up again next year, officials’ body language suggests they are preparing for a potentially much harsher outcome.

The leaders preparing to take over when Merkel steps aside are worried too. They say voters could be caught unawares by an economic shock in the middle of the political transition from Merkel’s rule. Two senior party officials this month voiced concerns that such a double whammy could shake up the political map ahead of the next election. They asked not to be identified questioning the chancellor’s approach.

The clearest sign of the government’s anxiety is its risky plan to patch up Deutsche Bank AG through a merger with domestic rival Commerzbank AG. The fact that ministers are prepared to take the political hit for as many as 30,000 job cuts shows just how seriously they take the threat of a recession exposing the country’s flagship lender to a potential bailout.

Lawmakers from the governing coalition are also discussing whether they need to loosen the constitutional restrictions on deficit spending. That suggests they are also contemplating a more severe downturn.

Fiscal Firepower

“There are many global risks currently overshadowing the economy,” said Matthias Heider, a lawmaker from Merkel’s CDU party and a member of the economics committee in the lower house of parliament. “If global risks accumulate further, it might be too much for growth to be sustained.”

Merkel herself has carefully avoided setting off any alarm bells, even as Brexit, China’s slowdown and U.S. trade tensions weigh on Germany. In an address to the Bundestag last week, she told lawmakers that she foresees “times of growth” ahead, while the outlook for the European Union has become “somewhat clouded.”

Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said in a newspaper interview this week that he’s prepared to use all the fiscal leeway available to him to stimulate the economy if a crisis hits, though he ruled out changing the rules to make more ammunition available.

Bracing for a worst case, the government is prepared to pass a set of recession-busting measures ranging from tax cuts to investment incentives, according to people familiar with the government’s plans, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private. The proposals are preliminary, and there remain differences within the government over the types of stimulus, with some in Merkel’s coalition calling for consumer-focused spending, while others preferring to target businesses, the people said.

While the mechanics of any package are in flux, Germany is in position to flex its financial muscle after years of rigid spending discipline brought public debt down to just 60 percent of output last year. Scholz hinted he may be ready to deploy some of that firepower when presenting his latest budget last week in Berlin, saying that “good, stable finances are the best way to prepare” for a period of greater economic uncertainty.

In her address to the Bundestag, Merkel noted that German debt now fulfills one of the euro area’s key stability criteria.

America First Fallout

Germany surged out of the financial crisis a decade ago with robust demand from China for German cars, contributed to a historic run of uninterrupted growth and record-low unemployment. But President Donald Trump’s America First protectionism has knocked Germany’s export machine off track.

The latest sign came last week, when the Council of Economic Experts slashed its 2019 growth forecast to 0.8 percent from an earlier prediction of 1.8 percent. Its central scenario though is still for a rebound to 1.4 percent next year.

Bolstered by a robust labor market, German consumer confidence remains buoyant — projected for April to be at 10.4 points, a mild dip from a high of 11 points from February last year. The optimism has fueled strong domestic spending, which is taking the sting out of the country’s export struggles.

Even if concerns are intensifying in Berlin, the message from Merkel’s inner circle is clear: don’t rock the boat.

When Scholz told the Bild tabloid in January that “the fat years are over” he was quickly slapped down by Economy Minister Peter Altmaier, a close ally of Merkel.

“One shouldn’t undermine the economic upswing by talking it down,” Altmaier said.

Since then, Scholz has mainly referred to the country’s outlook as a “normalization.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Recessione e l’allegro pollaio di Bloomberg. Satira ovvero informazione?

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-01-18.

2019-01-14__bloomberg_pollaio__001

‘There is something brewing’ in Germany: Fears of recession after latest industrial data

«- Another set of dismal industrial data from Germany has raised concerns over Germany’s economy.

– German industrial production declined 1.9 percent month-on-month in November, coming in way below a consensus for growth of 0.3 percent.

– Germany’s statistics office publishes preliminary GDP data for the fourth quarter and 2018 next week.»

*

What Is a Recession? Examples, Impact, Benefits

«A recession is when the economy declines significantly for at least six months. That means there’s a drop in the following five economic indicators: real GDP, income, employment, manufacturing, and retail sales. ….

The only good thing about a recession is that it cures inflation. The Federal Reserve must always balance between slowing the economy enough to prevent inflation without triggering a recession. Usually, the Fed does this without the help of fiscal policy. Politicians, who control the federal budget, generally try to stimulate the economy as much as possible through lowering taxes, spending on social programs and ignoring the budget deficit. That’s how the U.S. debt grew to $10.5 trillion before even a penny was spent on the Economic Stimulus Package.»

*

UK manufacturing in recession despite faster GDP growth

«The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said GDP increased by 0.4% in the second quarter from a rate of 0.2% in the previous three months, helped by stronger retail sales and good weather, which enabled the construction industry to make up lost ground from heavy snow earlier this year. ….

Philip Hammond, the chancellor, said Brexit uncertainty was depressing economic growth, as he used a trip to West Midlands on Friday to unveil £780m of new funding for high-tech industries.»

*

«Germania, crolla produzione industriale: “Rischio recessione tecnica aumenta”.

«Il dato che per la prima volta sta scalfendo le certezze tedesche sulla solidità della loro economia arriva dalla produzione industriale a novembre (-1,9%). ….

La Germania comincia a interrogarsi su quanto effettivamente solida sia la sua economia. L’ultimo dato che sta scalfendo le certezze tedesche arriva dalla produzione industriale: con un calo a novembre su ottobre dell’1,9% (mentre si attendeva appena un -0,3). Un crollo in termini statistici rispetto a un anno fa: –4,7 per cento. Numeri che fanno riemergere prepotentemente il rischio di una recessione tecnica»

* * * * * * *

Cerchiamo di ragionare, sempre che sia ancora possibile.

In Germania da giugno (-.9%) la produzione industriale sta diminuendo, fino al dato di -1.9% dell’8 gennaio. Tecnicamente parlando la Germania è in recessione.

In Francia la produzione industriale è -1.3%, in Italia il -2.8%, Spagna -2.66%.

Se è vero che l’11 gennaio la produzione industriale indiana era -.5%, sarebbe anche doveroso ricordare come da giugno ad ottobre fosse stata il +7.0%, +8.6%, +4.2%, +8.1%, rispettivamente.

In Cina da luglio a gennaio la produzione industriale è aumentata del 6.0%, 6.1%, 5.8%, 5.9%, 5.4%, rispettivamente.

I numeri ci indicano chiaramente come la recessione sia un fenomeno dell’Unione Europea, dalla quale India e Cina sono immuni. Sicuramente diminuiranno le loro esportazioni verso l’Unione Europea, ma stanno pur sempre ampliandosi per tassi percentuali maggiori del 5%: fosse successo in Europa Mr Juncker avrebbe brindato con un barilotto di Brunello.

* * * * * * *

Ma con Mr Macron incapsulato dai Gilets Jaunes e Frau Merkel indaffarata a sorvegliare Frau AKK che le sta facendo scarpe e corna, non sarà facile che l’Unione Europea si riprenda a breve.

Grande consolazione ci viene però dal pollaio di Bloomberg.

Se volete rovinarvi seguite i consigli del pollaio di Bloomberg.

Il pollaio di Bloomberg aveva sentenziato ‘buy’. Apple -8.81%

2019-01-14__bloomberg_pollaio__002

A starle a sentire sembrerebbero essere state catapultate da Marte sulla terra.

2019-01-14__bloomberg_pollaio__003

Come si constata dalla fotografia in cimosa, mostrano tutta la loro intelligenza, ossia cosciotti che il volgere del tempo ha reso scarsamente appetibili. Ma a starle a sentire si comprende come il loro corpo sia l’unica cosa che loro rimane: si capiscono di economia come Mr Di Maio di fisica delle particelle. Con la grande differenza che Mr Di Maio non si è mai sognato di spacciarsi per fisico.

Seguire il loro cicaleccio assorda: fino a tanto che ci siano miliardari che sganciano, qui sopravviviamo più che bene.

Già.

Questo è l’intermezzo umoristico che Bloomberg concede a noi poveri risparmiatori in cerca di un porto più o meno sicuro per il nostro miserrimo gruzzolo.

Nota.

Osservate bene. La gentile signora di destra ha una tetta più alta della controlaterale.


Bloomberg. 2019-01-14. The World’s Biggest Economies Are Moving Deeper Into a Slowdown

– OECD gauge adds to worries after numbers from Germany, China

– Central bankers have taken note of mounting global risks

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Momentum is easing across the world’s major economies, according to a gauge the OECD uses to predict turning points.

The Composite Leading Indicator is the latest sign of a synchronized slowdown in global growth, adding to recession warnings sparked by industrial figures in Germany last week and slumping trade figures for China earlier on Monday.

Easing Confirmed

Momentum is easing across the world’s major economies, according to a gauge the OECD uses to predict turning points.

The Composite Leading Indicator is the latest sign of a synchronized slowdown in global growth, adding to recession warnings sparked by industrial figures in Germany last week and slumping trade figures for China earlier on Monday.

Easing Confirmed

Growth in the some of the world’s biggest economies is slowing

The indicator, which is designed to anticipate turning points six-to-nine months ahead, has been ticking down since the start of 2018 and fell again in November. The OECD singled out the U.S. and Germany, where it said “tentative signs” of easing momentum are now confirmed.

Just two weeks into 2019, the OECD economic indicator follows a run of numbers that mean growth this year could be even slower than currently anticipated. For Bloomberg Economics, the data point to “slowdown, not meltdown,” but it still says the loss of momentum is “striking.”

What Our Economists Say:

“The early signs from the data suggest the world economy lost momentum as it entered 2019.” The median from a mapping of global measures “suggests gains may have dropped below the 3 percent mark for the first time since late 2016. That’s about 0.7 percentage point below the average since 2010 and a full percentage point below the 2000–2007 average. That slowdown is striking.”

China

Trade-tensions with the U.S. are showing up in data. Chinese exports slumped 4.4 percent in December from a year earlier, marking the worst performance in dollar terms since 2016. Imports also dropped the most since 2016, hinting at softening demand at home that could have implications for exporters to China.

The numbers sent stocks lower in Europe and Asia. The Stoxx 600 Index was down almost 1 percent as of 12 p.m. Frankfurt time.

The indicator, which is designed to anticipate turning points six-to-nine months ahead, has been ticking down since the start of 2018 and fell again in November. The OECD singled out the U.S. and Germany, where it said “tentative signs” of easing momentum are now confirmed.

Just two weeks into 2019, the OECD economic indicator follows a run of numbers that mean growth this year could be even slower than currently anticipated. For Bloomberg Economics, the data point to “slowdown, not meltdown,” but it still says the loss of momentum is “striking.”

What Our Economists Say:

“The early signs from the data suggest the world economy lost momentum as it entered 2019.” The median from a mapping of global measures “suggests gains may have dropped below the 3 percent mark for the first time since late 2016. That’s about 0.7 percentage point below the average since 2010 and a full percentage point below the 2000–2007 average. That slowdown is striking.”

–Bloombeg Economics. Read the Global Dashboard 

China

Trade-tensions with the U.S. are showing up in data. Chinese exports slumped 4.4 percent in December from a year earlier, marking the worst performance in dollar terms since 2016. Imports also dropped the most since 2016, hinting at softening demand at home that could have implications for exporters to China.

The numbers sent stocks lower in Europe and Asia. The Stoxx 600 Index was down almost 1 percent as of 12 p.m. Frankfurt time.

The indicator, which is designed to anticipate turning points six-to-nine months ahead, has been ticking down since the start of 2018 and fell again in November. The OECD singled out the U.S. and Germany, where it said “tentative signs” of easing momentum are now confirmed.

Just two weeks into 2019, the OECD economic indicator follows a run of numbers that mean growth this year could be even slower than currently anticipated. For Bloomberg Economics, the data point to “slowdown, not meltdown,” but it still says the loss of momentum is “striking.”

China

Trade-tensions with the U.S. are showing up in data. Chinese exports slumped 4.4 percent in December from a year earlier, marking the worst performance in dollar terms since 2016. Imports also dropped the most since 2016, hinting at softening demand at home that could have implications for exporters to China.

The numbers sent stocks lower in Europe and Asia. The Stoxx 600 Index was down almost 1 percent as of 12 p.m. Frankfurt time.

Trade Slumps

End of front-loaded export demand and slowing economy hit trade

Source: Customs General Administration

Euro Area

Industry in the region’s major economies had a grim month in November. Output declined 1.7 percent, with a slump in Germany sparking talk that it could shrink for a second quarter, putting it in a technical recession. There are also concerns about Italy’s economy, while riots and protests in France have hit growth there.

U.S.

Jobs growth remains strong, according to the latest payrolls report, but measures of activity have weakened. The Institute for Supply Management’s key manufacturing gauge is at a two-year low, and the housing market is cooling. Overall expansion is forecast to moderate this year, partly due to a fading boost from the Trump administration’s tax cuts.

Federal Reserve policy makers have taken note of the changed outlook and suggested they could pause their interest-rate hike cycle as they await clarity. Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the Fed can be “patient and flexible and wait and see what does evolve.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Europa. Germania. La recessione è sempre più probabile.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-01-12.

recessione 001

Il termine recessione indica una riduzione del livello (o, più raramente, del tasso di crescita) dell’attività economica aggregata, misurata tipicamente dal PIL in almeno due trimestri consecutivi.

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Esiste un quadro politico ed economico mondiale avverso: dalla lotta sulle valute, interessi e dazi al Brexit. Vi è una instabilità politica interna causata dalla frammentazione dei partiti ed infine le prime severe avvisaglie della carenza di braccia causa la denatalità.

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«IMF analysts have concluded that a storm is brewing on the horizon.»

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«The economic outlook is worsening almost by the week. A general consensus among economy experts has emerged that 2019 will be worse for all large national economies than last year. Stock exchanges already began dropping last year, with Germany’s blue-chip index DAX losing almost 20 percent of its value in 2018 while the Dow Jones also showed losses.»

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«The risks for the global economy, the eurozone and Germany have increased significantly in recent months.»

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«The U.S.’s stricter monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again shortly before Christmas, is creating a predicament for emerging economies given their considerable debts, especially those in dollars.»

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«For the export-oriented German economy, this risk-cocktail is anything but advantageous. Shortly before Christmas, economic think tanks dramatically dialed back some of their predictions for the new year. Instead of about 2 percent growth, most of them are now expecting something closer to 1.5 percent. The Ifo Institute for Economic Research in Munich has the grimmest outlook, predicting only 1.1 percent growth for 2019.»

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«There is no doubt that the dangers are growing, and that this is happening at one of the worst moments imaginable.»

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«Another long-term consequence of the financial crisis is that many countries still haven’t raised their interest rates to levels that used to be considered normal for an economic situation similar to today’s»

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«Stock exchanges already began dropping last year, with Germany’s blue-chip index DAX losing almost 20 percent of its value in 2018 while the Dow Jones also showed losses.»

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«Finance Ministry officials are planning for additional stimulus to come from cuts to the income tax. That, too, is a move that would benefit most companies in Germany, since for 80 percent of corporations in the country, their corporate tax is paid via the instrument of income tax. Furthermore, the move would mean that workers would have more money left over, leading to higher consumption and an additional stabilizing effect for the German economy. Depending on the severity of the recession, the Finance Ministry is envisioning tax cuts worth between €17 billion and €35 billion.»

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Si aggiunga che il verosimile risultato delle elezioni europee di maggio potrebbe essere lo stallo politico dell’Unione Europea, ciliegina sulla torta.

L’essere catastrofisti è mentalità a noi aliena, ma tutti i dati indicherebbero la probabile comparsa di una crisi recessiva.


Spiegel. 201901-09. Germany Prepares for an Economic Downturn

Clouds are gathering on the horizon of the global economy and the risk of a recession is growing. Many experts believe that the international banking system is unprepared and Germany has begun getting ready for the worst.

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is something like a global weather station for the economy, carefully registering even the tiniest of disruptions to the world economic stage. And in the past week, IMF analysts have concluded that a storm is brewing on the horizon.

Its experts carefully register every impulse, and in the past week they’ve concluded that the forecast is looking increasingly dark. “I see storm clouds building,” David Lipton, the IMF’s first deputy managing director, recently said in London, adding that the global banking system isn’t ready for another downturn. “The work on crisis prevention is incomplete,” he said.

The economic outlook is worsening almost by the week. A general consensus among economy experts has emerged that 2019 will be worse for all large national economies than last year. Stock exchanges already began dropping last year, with Germany’s blue-chip index DAX losing almost 20 percent of its value in 2018 while the Dow Jones also showed losses.

The risks for the global economy, the eurozone and Germany have increased significantly in recent months. The U.S.’s stricter monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again shortly before Christmas, is creating a predicament for emerging economies given their considerable debts, especially those in dollars. As interest rates rise, so too does the amount they must earmark for servicing their debts. The trade conflicts incited by U.S. President Donald Trump aren’t helping the economic climate either.

In Europe, several crises could flare up simultaneously in 2019 and further burden economic development. It’s still unclear if Brexit will take place in an orderly or chaotic fashion, but it will certainly be a burden for the British and European economies, destroying established production structures, requiring costly adaptation measures by companies and fostering consumer uncertainty. Then there’s the Italian government’s rather adventurous approach to economic policy, which could trigger a new euro crisis.

Lowering Growth Forecasts

For the export-oriented German economy, this risk-cocktail is anything but advantageous. Shortly before Christmas, economic think tanks dramatically dialed back some of their predictions for the new year. Instead of about 2 percent growth, most of them are now expecting something closer to 1.5 percent. The Ifo Institute for Economic Research in Munich has the grimmest outlook, predicting only 1.1 percent growth for 2019.

The German government will also significantly lower its 2019 growth expectations in its annual economic report due out at the end of January. It currently looks as though the growth forecast will end up at 1.5 percent at the highest, and perhaps even lower than that. Just a few months ago, in fall 2018, the German Economics Ministry had assumed a growth rate of 1.8 percent for 2019.

Such changes are not uncommon. In late 2017, forecasts were similarly shifted, but in the other direction. Now, though, a downturn would seem to have arrived, and many are wondering if, after nine years of uninterrupted growth, a recession is on the way. Experience shows that every boom comes to an end at some point, but nobody knows when.

“I’m most concerned about Germany,” Austrian central bank head Ewald Nowotny recently told the German business daily Handelsblatt, and he noted that most forecasts were assuming a significant decrease in German economic growth. For the first time in years, Germany’s economic performance shrank during the third quarter relative to the second quarter, largely the result of a slump in the export industry, with automobile sales leading the way. Volkswagen, Daimler and BMW are having difficulties adapting to new emissions standards and the Rhine River’s low water levels have led to delivery problems. Important parts from North Rhine-Westphalia were unable to reach their intended recipients.

It’s unclear whether the last quarter in 2018 will show an improvement. “I don’t think it unlikely that the economy shrank in the fourth quarter too,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Bank. By definition — two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth — that would mean that Germany is already in a recession. Should that be the case, most experts believe it would merely be a so-called “technical” recession, in which GDP may shrink numerically, but without consequence, since the economy will immediately bounce back.

Export Boost?

That doesn’t seem unlikely, given that Germany’s growth engine may be idling, but it isn’t sputtering. The driving forces remain intact. This year, domestic demand in particular is expected to help the economy to continue growing. “Consumption should increase, because employment will also continue growing in the coming year, and many workers will receive raises,” Brzeski predicts.

And companies will also invest more this year. Many of them are producing at nearly full capacity, and, despite the uncertainties, are considering expanding their production. The government is also helping stabilize demand. The beginning of the year marked tax and paycheck deduction decreases worth 15 billion euros. Federal and state authorities also plan on spending more money on public construction projects, streets and railroads.

If the euro’s rate against the dollar continues to drop, the economy could even get an additional boost from exports, Germany’s traditional growth driver.

If all that comes to pass, an upturn would be the result. But economic experts are excellent when it comes to hindsight. They can explain why there was a financial crisis in 2008, or why the economy collapsed in 1975. They are not, however, at predicting when such economic shocks might arrive.

The Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK) within the Hans Böckler Foundation, which is linked to Germany’s Confederation of Trade unions, has come up with a kind of early warning system for the economy. Researchers input a variety of data to determine the likelihood of a recession in the coming three months, then present their results in the form of a traffic light. Green represents a boom, red a coming recession.

At the moment, the traffic light is green-yellow, which means an “average-sized upswing in growth,” the IMK experts write. The fundamental dynamics of the economy, they argue, remain intact. At the same time, though, they note that economic risks are growing. This is reflected in the odds of a recession as calculated by the IMK. In the past three months, the risk of a recession has almost quadrupled. In October it was approximately 6 percent. In November it was 15 percent. In December, it was over 23 percent.

Insufficiently Prepared

There is no doubt that the dangers are growing, and that this is happening at one of the worst moments imaginable. The IMF’s Lipton is indeed not alone in his worry that governments and central banks aren’t sufficiently prepared for a downturn.

Many countries are still dealing with the consequences of the last financial crisis. State debt in France and the United States, for example, is about 100 percent of their GDP. If a new crisis were to take place, the governments of many countries would hardly have the financial elbow room for spending programs or tax rebates.

The situation isn’t particularly rosy when it comes to the central banks either. Another long-term consequence of the financial crisis is that many countries still haven’t raised their interest rates to levels that used to be considered normal for an economic situation similar to today’s. The European Central Bank (ECB) was unable to do so because it would have pushed down an inflation rate that was already well below the bank’s 2 percent target. Today, the prime rate remains at zero and ECB President Mario Draghi only envisions raising it in fall 2019 at the earliest.

The ECB is short of other tools as well. Despite the lasting upswing in recent years, the ECB continued flooding the markets with billions in liquidity each month with its bond buying program. Indeed, it was only at the end of December that ECB President Mario Draghi suspended the purchases.

Should the economy begin to slide again, lowering already non-existent interest rates is not an option. Which means that resuming the bond-purchasing program is the only way for the ECB to pump money into the economy as part of a stimulus package, should one become necessary.

German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, of the center-left Social Democrats, has been paying close attention to the ECB’s impotence. He and other senior Finance Ministry officials believe that if the ECB does not have its traditional instruments available when the next recession arrives, governments will have to plug the gap.

He has long justified the German government’s insistence on balancing the budget and paying down its debt load by saying it is a precaution for more difficult economic times. “In the next downturn,” he has said, “we will need wiggle room to take countermeasures.”

Solid Finances

And Germany does indeed count among the small number of countries that has solidified its state finances to such a degree that it doesn’t need to worry much about excessive borrowing during the next recession. This year, Germany’s sovereign debt load will fall below the stability pact-mandated level of 60 percent of GDP for the first time since 2002.

Germany’s federal and state governments, in other words, are strong enough to withstand the next downturn. The balanced budget would likely be history because of the tax revenue shortfalls and higher social welfare payments that would result. But the Finance Ministry would nevertheless have sufficient spending leeway to stabilize the economy.

The ministry is thus secretly preparing an emergency plan so as to be prepared in advance. The primary focus of the plan is on tax cuts, with favored instruments being more generous write-offs for corporations. In comparison to more complex investment programs, the effects of such cuts are more rapid. If companies are able to quickly write-off acquisitions like machines, facilities or structures, they are more likely to invest in them. And such investments serve to soften or reverse economic downturns.

Finance Ministry officials are planning for additional stimulus to come from cuts to the income tax. That, too, is a move that would benefit most companies in Germany, since for 80 percent of corporations in the country, their corporate tax is paid via the instrument of income tax. Furthermore, the move would mean that workers would have more money left over, leading to higher consumption and an additional stabilizing effect for the German economy. Depending on the severity of the recession, the Finance Ministry is envisioning tax cuts worth between €17 billion and €35 billion.

Scholz and his predecessor Wolfgang Schäuble long rejected tax cuts by arguing that doing so posed the risk of overheating an already solid economy. Economists fear such a development because uncontrolled growth distorts economic structures and make the downturn that follows that much worse.

But with growth slowly falling, that argument no longer applies. Indeed, even if the occasion may not be particularly joyful, it looks as though Germans will finally be getting the tax cuts for which they have been hoping for years.