Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Unione Europea. Immatricolazioni auto. GB -41.1%, It -41.9%, Fr -24.9%. M/m.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-09-19.

2019-09-19__Immatricolazioni Auto


Nei principali paesi europei le immatricolazioni di auto nuove sono consistentemente calate nel mese di luglio, dai dati mese/mese.

Dal -41.9% in Italia al -24.9% in Francia.

Gran brutto segno per il mercato automobilistico e per le società che producono automobili.

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Giappone. Import -12.0% anno/anno. Quarto consecutivo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-09-19.

2019-09-18__Giappone IImport-12.0

The Ministry of Finance ha rilasciato il dato relativo all’import giapponese,, che al 18 settembre c.a. era calato del -12.0% anni su anno.

È il quarto calo continuativo.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Italia. Produzione industriale -0.7% mese su mese. -19% dal 2007.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-09-11.

«per il quinto mese consecutivo si registra

un andamento tendenziale negativo»

2019-09-10__Istat 001

L’Istat ha rilasciato il report sulla produzione industriale. Testo Integrale.

2019-09-10__Istat 002

«A luglio 2019 si stima che l’indice destagionalizzato della produzione industriale diminuisca dello 0,7% rispetto a giugno. Nella media del trimestre maggio-luglio il livello destagionalizzato della produzione registra una flessione dello 0,3% rispetto ai tre mesi precedenti.

– L’indice destagionalizzato mensile mostra un aumento congiunturale solo per l’energia (+1,3%); diminuzioni si registrano, invece, per i beni strumentali (-1,6%) e, in misura più lieve, per i beni di consumo (-0,3%) e per i beni intermedi (-0,2%).

– Corretto per gli effetti di calendario, a luglio 2019 l’indice complessivo è diminuito in termini tendenziali dello 0,7% (i giorni lavorativi sono stati 23, contro i 22 di luglio 2018).

– Gli indici corretti per gli effetti di calendario registrano a luglio 2019 un aumento tendenziale accentuato per l’energia (+5,8%) e più contenuto per i beni di consumo (+0,9%); diminuiscono in modo marcato i beni strumentali (-3,0%) mentre più moderata è la diminuzione dei beni intermedi (-2,0%).

– Tra i settori di attività economica che registrano variazioni tendenziali positive si segnalano le altre industrie manifatturiere, la fornitura di energia elettrica, gas, vapore ed aria (+6,4% per entrambi i settori), la fabbricazione di coke e prodotti petroliferi raffinati (+5,1%). Le flessioni più ampie si registrano nella fabbricazione di macchinari, attrezzature n.c.a. (-6,9%), nelle industrie tessili, abbigliamento, pelli e accessori (-6,1%), e negli articoli in gomma, materie plastiche, minerali non metalliferi (-3,0%). »

* * * * * * *

La variazione tendenziale anno su anno è -0.8%.

Significative le variazioni tendenziali della metallurgia e della fabbricazione di prodotti in metallo, -2.5%, e della fabbricazione di mezzi di trasporto, -4.0%.

* * * * * * *


Industria,il 3° trimestre inizia con il meno. Caporetto dal 2007: perso il 19%

L’Italia comincia il terzo trimestre nel peggiore dei modi: brusca frenata della produzione industriale a luglio. L’Istat stima infatti che a luglio che l’indice destagionalizzato della produzione industriale sia diminuito dello 0,7% rispetto a giugno. “Nella media del trimestre maggio-luglio il livello destagionalizzato della produzione registra una flessione dello 0,3% rispetto ai tre mesi precedenti”, afferma l’Istat.

“A luglio – si legge nella nota – si rileva, per il secondo mese consecutivo, una flessione congiunturale della produzione industriale. Ad eccezione dell’energia, tutti i principali settori di attività mostrano riduzioni, con un calo particolarmente marcato per i beni strumentali”. Trend che fiacca le speranze di un segno più per il terzo trimestre dell’anno dopo la crescita zero del periodo da aprile a giugno.

Secondo Massimiliano Dona, presidente dell’Unione Nazionale Consumatori, che ha commentato i dati Istat, si tratta di ”una Caporetto per l’industria italiana. Non ci sono più dubbi. L’Italia è attualmente in recessione. Iniziamo il terzo trimestre nel peggiore dei modi e per il quinto mese consecutivo si registra un andamento tendenziale negativo. Peggio di così non si puo’!”.

“Se a questo aggiungiamo – aggiunge Dona – che se si confrontano i dati di oggi con quelli precrisi del luglio 2007, la produzione è ancora inferiore del 19%, ossia quasi un quinto, il quadro è ancor piu’ desolante. I beni di consumo durevoli, nonostante oggi, su base annua, abbiano registrato un ottimo +6%, hanno ancora un gap rispetto a 12 anni fa del 30,9%, quasi un terzo. Va molto meglio per i beni di consumo non durevoli, dove la distanza è di appena l’1,4% conclude Dona.

Pubblicato in: Demografia, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Germania. Ordini domestici -0.4% m/m. – Destatis.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-08-23.

2019-08-20__germania-incidenza-economica-del-calo-demografico-bloomberg-__000

Il problema della Germania è semplicissimo: la questione demografica.

Germania. Incidenza economica del calo demografico. – Bloomberg.

Le femmine tedesche autoctone non fanno figli a sufficienza o, meglio, non vogliono fare figli.

Per mantenere costante il numero della popolazione, servirebbe un tasso di fertilità superiore a 2.1. Ad oggi è 1.5: dato questo però che comprende sia autoctoni sia immigrati. Senza la quota degli immigrati il tasso di fertilità scenderebbe di poco sotto l’unità. Il grafico riportato da Destatis è ben chiaro.

2019-08-20__germania-incidenza-economica-del-calo-demografico-bloomberg-__001

Il 41.4% delle famiglie è formata da single. Su 400,115 matrimoni si registrano 163,335 separazioni, tenendo conto solo di quelle espressamente sentenziate da una Corte di Giustizia.

La Germania, intendendo per essa il popolo tedesco, si avvia alla estinzione, a diventare una mera espressione geografica.

Germania. La demografia che stritola. Mancano tre milioni di lavoratori. – Vbw.

Germania. Destatis. Crollo persone in età lavorativa dai 51.8m ai 40m nel 2035.

Germania. Anche l’export crolla del -8% yoy.

Germania. Produzione manifatturiera. -21.3% in sette mesi. È in depressione.

* * * * * * *


Destatis. Manufacturing in June 2019: unfilled orders up a seasonally adjusted 0.1% on the previous month

«WIESBADEN – Based on provisional data, the price adjusted stock of orders in manufacturing in June 2019 rose a seasonally and calendar adjusted 0.1% on the previous month, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The domestic orders not yet completed decreased 0.4% on the previous month, the stock of foreign orders increased 0.3%. The stock of orders comprises the total of new orders received by the end of the reference month which have not led to any turnover and have not been cancelled by that time.

Unfilled orders for producers of intermediate goods in June 2019 were by 0.8% lower than in the previous month. The producers of capital goods recorded an increase of 0.3%. Regarding consumer goods, the stock was up by 0.9% compared to May 2019.

In June 2019, the range of the stock of orders in manufacturing was 5.7 months (previous month also 5.7 months). The range indicates for how many months establishments, theoretically, would have to produce goods until all orders on hand are filled – with turnover remaining constant and without any new orders being received. It is calculated as the ratio between the current stock of orders and average turnover per month in the respective branch.

For the producers of intermediate goods, the range of the stock of orders in June 2019 was 2.9 months (previous month also 2.9), for the producers of capital goods 8.0 months (previous month 7.9) and for consumer goods 2.1 months (previous month also 2.1).»

* * *

Il cuore del rapporto è racchiuso in una frasetta:

«The domestic orders not yet completed decreased 0.4% on the previous month»

La popolazione tedesca decresce ed invecchia: continua a consumare sempre meno. Per consumare occorrerebbe avere la giovinezza ed il denaro per farlo: tutto qui.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti, Unione Europea

Occidente. Recessione che sprofonda verso la depressione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-08-22.

2019-08-16__Recessione Depressione 001

Usualmente, i tassi dei titoli di stato a lungo termine rendono interessi maggiori di quelli a breve termine. I periodi nei quali i tassi a breve sono superiori di quelli a lungo termine sono quasi invariabilmente legati a periodi di recessione, se non i franca depressione.

Poi, questo dato può essere commentato a piacere.

«Financial markets have flashed a warning sign about the economic outlook for the UK and the US»

«It is known in the jargon as an “inverted yield curve”»

«It means that it is cheaper for those countries’ governments to borrow for 10 years than for two»

«It is an unusual development and it often comes before a recession or at least a significant slowdown in economic growth»

«Usually, a longer wait means they expect a higher yield»

* * *

«What is unusual is that the yield on UK government bonds (gilts, as they are known) with two years to maturity went above the yield on the 10-year equivalent. The same thing happened in the US.»

«It is seen as a sign that investors want the assured returns from holding a longer-term bond and are worried about the shorter-term outlook for the economy.»

«Periods with an inverted yield curve are reliably followed by economic slowdowns and almost always by a recession»

«The yield curve inversion does not tell us anything about what might be the specific reasons for any impending recession …. So QE may well be making a contribution to the yield curve inversion that is taking place now»

«The yield curve for the German government is not inverted. But there is something else about government bonds there that is a clearly sign of a weak economic outlook: the fact that yields are below zero»

«In effect, investors pay the government to lend to it.  That reflects the ultra-low interest rate policy of the European Central Bank, but it is also a sign of a weak economic outlook.»

* * * * * * *

La recessione, in economia, è una condizione macroeconomica caratterizzata da livelli di attività produttiva (PIL) più bassi di quelli che si potrebbero ottenere usando completamente ed in maniera efficiente tutti i fattori produttivi a disposizione.

La depressione è la fase discendente del ciclo economico, in generale una crisi economica più grave della recessione, associata ad aumento della disoccupazione.

Per usare una vecchia battuta, la recessione è quando il tuo vicino perde il lavoro, la depressione è quando tu perdi il lavoro.

Per taluni economisti, si è in depressione quando il calo nell’economia vede il PIL diminuire più del 10%, mentre si  on recessione, invece, quando il calo nell’economia è meno grave. Altri denominano la depressione come il calo per più di sei mesi consecutivi degli indici econometrici globali.

Riassumendo, non sono al momento disponibili definizioni univoche per questi due fenomeni economici, e questo genera una grande confusione.

* * * * * * *

Sta di fatto che gli stati occidentali, tranne alcune rare eccezioni, sono oberate da consistenti debiti sovrani e faticano non poco a trovare acquirenti per i loro titoli, con la politica dei QE e dei tassi sottozero le banche centrali hanno sì salvato in passato dal crollo, ma hanno anche posto serie ipoteche sulla ripresa futura.

Ma forse il principale movente è la disaffezione occidentale alla produzione manifatturiera ed industriale, lasciata transitare nei paesi emergenti. La produzione in Occidente è stata caricata di tasse, leggi, norme e regolamenti che la spiazzano dai mercati: obbliga a decentrare oppure a chiudere.

Quando il capitale impiegato nel comparto produttivo rende meno di quello impiegato in strumenti finanziari si apre la porta a recessione prima, depressione dopo.


Bbc. 2019-08-15. Are markets signalling that a recession is due?

Financial markets have flashed a warning sign about the economic outlook for the UK and the US.

It is known in the jargon as an “inverted yield curve”.

It means that it is cheaper for those countries’ governments to borrow for 10 years than for two.

It is an unusual development and it often comes before a recession or at least a significant slowdown in economic growth.

Wall Street shares plunged on Wednesday, as investors’ concerns about a potential recession were stoked by the news.

The main US stock market indexes fell between 2.3% and 2.6%. Meanwhile in Europe London’s FTSE 100 slipped 1.4%, Germany’s Dax lost 2.2% and the French Cac 40 fell by 2.1%.

What is the yield curve?

This warning sign is coming from the bond market, the place where governments and companies go to borrow money by selling bonds.

A bond is a promise to make certain payments in the future, usually a large one when the bond “matures” and smaller ones in the interim, typically every six months.

How much investors pay for the bond determines the yield they will get – the higher the price, the lower the yield.

One factor affecting the yield that investors want is how long they have to wait for the big final payment.

Usually, a longer wait means they expect a higher yield.

It compensates them for tying their money up for longer, when there is more risk that unexpected inflation could erode the value of their returns.

Is it a reliable signal of recession?

What is unusual is that the yield on UK government bonds (gilts, as they are known) with two years to maturity went above the yield on the 10-year equivalent. The same thing happened in the US.

It is seen as a sign that investors want the assured returns from holding a longer-term bond and are worried about the shorter-term outlook for the economy.

Is the inverted yield curve reliable? According to economists at the US Federal Reserve: “Periods with an inverted yield curve are reliably followed by economic slowdowns and almost always by a recession.”

The time between the inversion and the onset of a recession is, however, not uniform.

Could this time be different?

That said, there is something about the current situation that didn’t apply to earlier episodes: quantitative easing, the policy pursued by many central banks after the financial crisis (and before, in the case of Japan) of buying financial assets, mainly government bonds.

That had the effect of raising bond prices – which, remember is equivalent to reducing the yield from them.

So QE may well be making a contribution to the yield curve inversion that is taking place now.

The yield curve inversion does not tell us anything about what might be the specific reasons for any impending recession.

What is making the markets so nervous?

This time, there are several possible candidates out there.

The global trade conflict is a factor for many economies. Concerns held by many (though by no means all) businesses and investors about the possibility of a no-deal Brexit are a UK-specific issue that may be contributing.

The UK has just recorded one quarter of declining economic activity, so the idea of an imminent recession is not at all fanciful, although the figures have been influenced by stockpiling ahead of planned Brexit dates and the subsequent rundown of those stocks.

In the US, it would take a significant further slowdown to produce a recession.

Germany has also registered a quarter of declining activity, according to new figures, so a recession could be under way there too.

The yield curve for the German government is not inverted. But there is something else about government bonds there that is a clearly sign of a weak economic outlook: the fact that yields are below zero.

In effect, investors pay the government to lend to it.

That reflects the ultra-low interest rate policy of the European Central Bank, but it is also a sign of a weak economic outlook.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Germania. La crisi da tedesca sta diventando europea.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-04-11.

2019-04-08__Germania. La crisi da tedesca sta diventando europea.__001

Il grafico evidenzia in modo chiaro quanto il sistema economico tedesco sia vicendevolmente connesso con quello europeo. I problemi tedeschi non sono un loro fatto domestico, bensì faccende che riguardano tutta la Unione Europea, e viceversa.

Destatis. 2019-04-05. Production in February 2019: seasonally adjusted increase of 0.7% on the previous month

«February 2019 (provisional): production in industry. +0.7% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted) -0.4% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

January 2019 (revised): production in industry. 0.0% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted) -2.7% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)»

*

Destatis. 2019-04-05. Manufacturing in February 2019: New orders -4.2% seasonally adjusted on the previous month

«February 2019 (provisional): new orders in manufacturing. -4.2% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted) -8.4% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

January 2019 (revised): new orders in manufacturing. -2.1% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted) -3.6% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)»

*

Manufacturing PMI falls to lowest since July 2012 as decline in order books gathers pace.

«- Headline PMI slumps to 80-month low of 44.1

– New orders post steepest drop since April 2009

– Employment falls for first time in three years, albeit slightly. ….

The deterioration in performance was underpinned by a sharp and accelerated decrease in new orders, which was in turn partly driven a further slump in export sales. Both total order books and new business from abroad fell at the fastest rate since April 2009.»

Deutsche Welle. 2019-04-07. Protesters rally against ‘rental insanity’ in large German cities

«Rents have risen sharply in Berlin and other German cities during the past decade. At a Berlin protest, housing activists demanded the government hit back by expropriating real estate from big rental companies.

Thousands of people took to the streets in the German capital, Berlin, on Saturday to protest against rising rents, with other protests also staged in Cologne, Frankfurt and Munich.»

* * * * * * *

La comparsa di manifestazioni di piazza, in questo caso contro il mercato degli affitti semplicemente impazzito, potrebbe essere lo spartiacque che segna la mutazione dei tempi. I tedeschi sono plantigradi nello scendere in piazza, ma sono altrettanto lenti a lasciarla.

I dati evidenziano come gli ordini all’industria si siano contratti severamente, -8.4% a/a. Ma alla contrazione degli ordini segue il calo della produzione, ed a questo consegue calo del fatturato e della manodopera impiegata. Il denaro circola stentatamente, e si innesca in questa maniera una spirale negativa.

I presupposti sui quali si basava il modello delle esportazioni tedesche sono venuti a meno. L’Amministrazione americana è stata la prima e rendersene conto, ed a trarne le debite conseguenze.

«There’s no question that the German economy has hit a difficult patch»

*

«The widest measure of economic activity, gross domestic product (GDP), declined in the third quarter of last year by 0.2% and failed to grow in the following three months.  In terms of recession, as widely defined (two consecutive quarters of contraction), that is a very near miss indeed.»

*

«Growth in the the eurozone as a whole has slowed.»

*

«nI part, that reflects Germany’s situation. It accounts for 29% of eurozone economic activity, so weakness in Germany drags down the average even if nothing changes anywhere else. »

*

«Some eurozone countries don’t seem to have lost momentum to any great extent so far. Among the large economies Spain is the obvious example. But others have had a setback, notably Italy, which is in recession.»

*

«Eurozone unemployment varies widely. It is down from the highest levels it reached during the eurozone crisis, very sharply in some cases. But at 7.8%, it is still fairly high. Unemployment is still in double figures in three countries: Italy, Spain and Greece, where the figure is 18%.»

*

«China’s economic slowdown has weakened demand for foreign goods and it’s an important market for Germany.»

*

«Can the European Central Bank do anything?»

*

«The European Central Bank (ECB) already has interest rates at or close to the lowest level they can be. Its main rate is zero and one – the deposit rate for money held overnight for commercial banks – is even lower; it’s negative»

*

«For some types of asset the ECB is approaching the maximum amount it wants to hold – to avoid distorting the market too much»

*

«”Printing money” as the programme is sometimes called can conjure up fears of high inflation and Germany has had seriously disruptive episodes of that in the first half of the twentieth century.»

*

«Another option to stimulate economic activity in a slowdown is the government finances: tax cuts or spending increases. Many economists would argue that Germany has the scope to do that.»

* * * * * * * *

Sicuramente il problema nella sua globalità è più mondiale che europeo e più europeo che tedesco.

Ma puntualizzato questo importante statement, emergono anche evidenti le lacune politiche del governo tedesco.

Il suo comparto produttivo sta soffrendo sotto una pletora di leggi, norme e regolamenti troppo cogenti e vincolanti, che pongono limitazioni irrealistiche.

A ciò si aggiunga che il comparto produttivo tende a ragionare su archi temporali lunghi: i tempi che intercorrono tra la progettazione di un impianto e la fine del suo ammortamento si aggirano attorno ai dieci anni.

Il quesito si ripropone quindi in altri termini: cosa sarà il mondo e la Germania tra dieci anni?

Non a caso i problemi demografici tedeschi sono stati ben a fondo studiati dalla grande industria: la denatalità degli autoctoni impone la fuga dalla Germania.

La risposta è sotto il naso di tutti.

Daimler opens Mercedes-Benz plant in Moscow region

Putin opens new Mercedes-Benz assembly plant near Moscow

*

Chi abbia orecchi, intenda.


Bbc. 2019-04-07. Germany’s economy: Should we be worried?

It has been a poor week for German economic news.

On Friday, we learned that industrial production in February – excluding energy and construction – had fallen.

The previous day, new official data showed that manufacturing orders also declined in the same month.

At the start of the week, another survey of the same sector reported new orders and export sales “falling at rates not seen since the global financial crisis”.

We look at what’s gone wrong for the German industrial machine.

How bad is the German economic situation?

There’s no question that the German economy has hit a difficult patch. The widest measure of economic activity, gross domestic product (GDP), declined in the third quarter of last year by 0.2% and failed to grow in the following three months.

In terms of recession, as widely defined (two consecutive quarters of contraction), that is a very near miss indeed.

That said, the jobs market in Germany is still in pretty decent health. The unemployment rate is one of the lowest in the world at 3.1%.

Among the rich countries, only the Czech Republic, Iceland and Japan have lower figures. Germany’s unemployment rate has continued to decline during this period of weak GDP performance.

Another way of looking at it is the employment rate – the percentage of the working age population who do have jobs (or self-employment). That continued to grow in the last two quarters of 2018; by 0.2% in each period.

t’s also worth noting that other business surveys this week have been much more upbeat, pointing to continued expansion in services and construction.

But manufacturing is going through a more difficult spell.

What about the rest of the eurozone?

Growth in the the eurozone as a whole has slowed.

In part, that reflects Germany’s situation. It accounts for 29% of eurozone economic activity, so weakness in Germany drags down the average even if nothing changes anywhere else.

Some eurozone countries don’t seem to have lost momentum to any great extent so far. Among the large economies Spain is the obvious example.

But others have had a setback, notably Italy, which is in recession.

The country has a persistent problem with weak growth. Growth has never been strong and went into reverse last year. In fact, the Italian economy is still smaller than it was before the financial crisis a decade ago.

Eurozone unemployment varies widely. It is down from the highest levels it reached during the eurozone crisis, very sharply in some cases.

But at 7.8%, it is still fairly high. Unemployment is still in double figures in three countries: Italy, Spain and Greece, where the figure is 18%.

Why are Germany and the eurozone struggling?

The recovery after the eurozone financial crisis was never that strong.

But in the last year or so, the region has been hit by adverse trade winds. It matters particularly to Germany, which is Europe’s leading goods exporter and number three globally (after China and the US).

There are several factors. China’s economic slowdown has weakened demand for foreign goods and it’s an important market for Germany.

President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium are also an issue. Looking ahead the possibility that he might impose tariffs on cars could do a lot more damage to Germany.

The uncertainty associated with Brexit is also a factor mentioned by German firms in their survey responses.

There have also been some temporary factors that have contributed to Germany’s problems.

New emissions testing procedures set back car production last year and low water levels on the Rhine restricted cargo traffic for a time. The river is a very important transport route for German industry.

Can the European Central Bank do anything?

Using economic policy to tackle this slowdown is challenging. The options available to policymakers are seriously constrained.

The European Central Bank (ECB) already has interest rates at or close to the lowest level they can be. Its main rate is zero and one – the deposit rate for money held overnight for commercial banks – is even lower; it’s negative.

The ECB halted its “quantitative easing” policy of buying financial assets with newly created money at the end of last year.

Reviving them is certainly possible, but there are complications.

For some types of asset the ECB is approaching the maximum amount it wants to hold – to avoid distorting the market too much.

And politically it would be difficult especially in Germany where the programme was always viewed with unease.

“Printing money” as the programme is sometimes called can conjure up fears of high inflation and Germany has had seriously disruptive episodes of that in the first half of the twentieth century.

What about governments?

Another option to stimulate economic activity in a slowdown is the government finances: tax cuts or spending increases.

Many economists would argue that Germany has the scope to do that.

The government currently spends less than it collects in taxes. But it is reluctant to use its finances as a stimulus.

There are legal restrictions in German law and the whole thrust of eurozone policy on government finances has been affected by the experience of the government debt crisis earlier in the decade.

Even if Germany does have some room in principle to use its finances to stimulate the economy, others have less.

The most recent assessment by the European Commission concluded that there was still a need for “prudent” policies to ensure the sustainability of government finances.

Some, critics, however think that the EU’s rules for eurozone government finances are too restrictive.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Senza categoria, Unione Europea

Germania. Ordini Industria -4.2%, -8.4% a/a.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-04-04.

2019-04-04__Destatis__001

«- February 2019 (provisional): new orders in manufacturing

-4.2% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)

-8.4% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)»

*

«Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing had decreased in February 2019 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 4.2% on the previous month»

*

«Domestic orders decreased by 1.6% and foreign orders fell by 6.0% in February 2019 on the previous month»

*

«New orders from the euro area were down 2.9%, new orders from other countries decreased 7.9% compared to January 2019»

*

«The manufacturers of capital goods showed decreases of 6.0% on the previous month»

*

«For consumer goods, a decrease in new orders of 3.5% was recorded.»

* * * * * * *

La Germania è entrata in una fase recessiva dalla quale non riuscirà ad uscirne se non quando si sarà liberata di Frau Merkel.

L’industria tedesca, una volta fiore all’occhiello di quel paese, sta agonizzando sotto un cumulo di leggi, regolamenti e normativi che godono tutti della comune caratteristica di essere contrari al più comune buon senso.

Ma se fosse solo per questo, si andrebbe ancora bene. Commerzbank e Deutsche Bank sono sull’orlo del fallimento.

Siamo perfettamente consci che tale terminologia non rientra nel politicamente corretto, ma la fuga dalla Germania alla quale stiamo assistendo ricorda quella dei tedeschi incalzati dall’Armata Rossa.

*


Destatis. 2019-04-04. Manufacturing in February 2019: New orders -4.2% seasonally adjusted on the previous month

Pressrelease #132 from April 4, 2019.

– February 2019 (provisional): new orders in manufacturing

-4.2% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)

-8.4% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

– January 2019 (revised): new orders in manufacturing

-2.1% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)

-3.6% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

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WIESBADEN – Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing had decreased in February 2019 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 4.2% on the previous month. For January 2019, revision of the preliminary outcome resulted in a decrease of 2.1% compared with December 2018 (provisional: -2.6%). Price-adjusted new orders without major orders in manufacturing had decreased in February 2019 a seasonally and calendar adjusted 2.7% on the previous month.

Domestic orders decreased by 1.6% and foreign orders fell by 6.0% in February 2019 on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were down 2.9%, new orders from other countries decreased 7.9% compared to January 2019.

In February 2019 the manufacturers of intermediate goods saw new orders fall by 0.9% compared with January 2019. The manufacturers of capital goods showed decreases of 6.0% on the previous month. For consumer goods, a decrease in new orders of 3.5% was recorded.

Turnover -1.1% seasonally adjusted on the previous month

The price-adjusted turnover in manufacturing in February 2019 was down a seasonally and calendar adjusted 1.1% on the previous month. In January 2019, the corrected figure showed an increase of 0.9% to December 2018 (provisional: +0.6%).

The data shown here on new orders and turnover are based on the volume index of manufacturing, seasonally and calendar adjusted by means of X13 JDemetra+. (The underlying mathematical-statistical method is not fundamentally different from the previously applied method X-12-ARIMA.)

New orders and turnover are covered and evaluated in accordance with the Classification of Economic Activities, 2008 edition (WZ 2008). New orders are covered only in selected economic branches of manufacturing.

Detailed data and long time series are available from the GENESIS-Online database (indices of new orders 42151 and indices of turnover 42152).

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Sole 24 Ore. 2019-04-04. Germania, crollano gli ordini all’industria. Stima Pil 2019 tagliata a +0,8%

Dalla Germania arrivano nuovi, pesanti segnali di frenata, con gli ordini industriali in pesante flessione e le stime di crescita per il 2019 aggiornate al ribasso dai cinque principali istituti economici.

Gli ordini sono crollati inaspettatamente a febbraio, segnando un -4,2% congiunturale, il ribasso più forte da due anni, smentendo le attese di un incremento dello 0,3%. Su base annua si è registrata una flessione dell’8,4%, che è la più pesante in dieci anni. Il ministero dell’Economia tedesco ha osservato che l’attività manifatturiera, già in frenata del 2,1% a gennaio, «continuerà ad essere debole nei prossimi mesi, in particolare per la scarsa domanda estera». I dati hanno infatti rilevato un calo del 6% degli ordini dall’estero.

Un’altra doccia fredda, seppure meno inattesa, è arrivata dalla revisione al ribasso delle stime di crescita per il 2019 da parte dei principali istituti di ricerca tedeschi. Ifo, Ivw, Diw, IfW e Rwi hanno tagliato le previsioni allo 0,8%, meno della metà dell’1,9% stimato a settembre. In questo caso va detto tuttavia che lo stesso governo aveva già ridimensionato le attese, indicando a gennaio un incremento stimato del Pil pari all’1%, così come il Consiglio degli esperti economici tedeschi, che a febbraio aveva fatto previsioni analoghe a quelle di oggi.

A pesare sulla maggiore economia dell’Eurozona sono soprattutto le tensioni commerciali e la Brexit, considerando che Stati Uniti e Gran Bretagna sono due dei principali partner di Berlino; si aggiugono inoltre le incertezze sull’andamento dell’economia cinese. «Le difficoltà della produzione interna e la portata del rallentamento dell’economia globale sono stati sottovalutati» si legge nel report pubblicato oggi, ma i rischi di una «recessione pronunciata» sono bassi purché non si intensifichino le turbolenze politiche.

Anche il report punta dunque il dito sulle difficoltà della produzione industriale, già evidenti nella seconda metà del 2018 e confermate dal dato di oggi sugli ordini.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Sistemi Economici, Sistemi Politici

Germania. Merkel. La recessione è in atto e potrebbe anche essere violenta.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-04-03.

Das Brandenburger Tor in Berlin

Recessione. La parola che nessuno vorrebbe leggere o sentire.

Europa. Germania. La recessione è sempre più probabile.

«For the export-oriented German economy, this risk-cocktail is anything but advantageous.»

Italia. Crisi in vista. Liquidità bancarie salite al 32%, 1,371 miliardi.

Usa. Tassi di interesse nella crux desperationis. La crisi si avvicina.

Ecb. Nuovo Ltro. Intanto il rapporto EurUsd vale

Siamo chiari.

Se la situazione fosse buona e tutto stesse andando per il meglio, la banca centrale europea non avrebbe ripristinato il programma Ltro.

* * *

Giorno dopo giorno si stanno evidenziando segni che prospettano la concreta possibilità di una severa crisi e recessione., e la Germania potrebbe essere uno dei primi paesi coinvolti. Se tutto questo è ben chiaro ai governanti, lo è molto meno alla gente comune.

«Germany is quietly preparing plans to fight a recession»

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«Some politicians worry voters are unprepared for what’s ahead»

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«Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government senses trouble brewing for the German economy, but voters don’t see the storm clouds»

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«There are many global risks currently overshadowing the economy, …. If global risks accumulate further, it might be too much for growth to be sustained»

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«Merkel herself has carefully avoided setting off any alarm bells, even as Brexit, China’s slowdown and U.S. trade tensions weigh on Germany»

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«Bracing for a worst case, the government is prepared to pass a set of recession-busting measures ranging from tax cuts to investment incentives, according to people familiar with the government’s plans, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private»

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«President Donald Trump’s America First protectionism has knocked Germany’s export machine off track»

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Il punto cardine da comprendere è racchiuso in pochissime parole:

«Bracing for a worst case».

Essere possibile non significa essere probabile e, tanto meno, essere in atto.

Esattamente come l’essere probabile non implica assolutamente il concretizzarsi dell’evento.

Quando però il possibile evento potrebbe rivelarsi drammatico, sarebbe improvvido non valutarlo.

Porre in opera le scale antincendio non significa che a breve si debba manifestare l’incendio: ma non allestirle sarebbe criminale omissione.

Ciò premesso, per cercare di evitare falsi allarmismi oppure ingenui ottimismi, sarebbe da ricordarsi come questo anno elettorale ostacoli in modo consistente l’operato dei politici.

«Some politicians worry voters are unprepared for what’s ahead …. voters don’t see the storm clouds»

Ci si pone quindi una domanda.

È più importante un sereno rinnovo elettorale oppure che la gente sia resa edotta di quanto stia accadendo?


Bloomberg. 2019-03-28. Merkel Doesn’t Want to Tell Germans the Good Times May Be Over

– Germany is quietly preparing plans to fight a recession

– Some politicians worry voters are unprepared for what’s ahead

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Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government senses trouble brewing for the German economy, but voters don’t see the storm clouds.

That’s creating a conundrum for German officials on how to head off risks without sapping further momentum as Merkel enters the final years of her political career. While the government forecasts only a brief slowdown before growth picks up again next year, officials’ body language suggests they are preparing for a potentially much harsher outcome.

The leaders preparing to take over when Merkel steps aside are worried too. They say voters could be caught unawares by an economic shock in the middle of the political transition from Merkel’s rule. Two senior party officials this month voiced concerns that such a double whammy could shake up the political map ahead of the next election. They asked not to be identified questioning the chancellor’s approach.

The clearest sign of the government’s anxiety is its risky plan to patch up Deutsche Bank AG through a merger with domestic rival Commerzbank AG. The fact that ministers are prepared to take the political hit for as many as 30,000 job cuts shows just how seriously they take the threat of a recession exposing the country’s flagship lender to a potential bailout.

Lawmakers from the governing coalition are also discussing whether they need to loosen the constitutional restrictions on deficit spending. That suggests they are also contemplating a more severe downturn.

Fiscal Firepower

“There are many global risks currently overshadowing the economy,” said Matthias Heider, a lawmaker from Merkel’s CDU party and a member of the economics committee in the lower house of parliament. “If global risks accumulate further, it might be too much for growth to be sustained.”

Merkel herself has carefully avoided setting off any alarm bells, even as Brexit, China’s slowdown and U.S. trade tensions weigh on Germany. In an address to the Bundestag last week, she told lawmakers that she foresees “times of growth” ahead, while the outlook for the European Union has become “somewhat clouded.”

Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said in a newspaper interview this week that he’s prepared to use all the fiscal leeway available to him to stimulate the economy if a crisis hits, though he ruled out changing the rules to make more ammunition available.

Bracing for a worst case, the government is prepared to pass a set of recession-busting measures ranging from tax cuts to investment incentives, according to people familiar with the government’s plans, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private. The proposals are preliminary, and there remain differences within the government over the types of stimulus, with some in Merkel’s coalition calling for consumer-focused spending, while others preferring to target businesses, the people said.

While the mechanics of any package are in flux, Germany is in position to flex its financial muscle after years of rigid spending discipline brought public debt down to just 60 percent of output last year. Scholz hinted he may be ready to deploy some of that firepower when presenting his latest budget last week in Berlin, saying that “good, stable finances are the best way to prepare” for a period of greater economic uncertainty.

In her address to the Bundestag, Merkel noted that German debt now fulfills one of the euro area’s key stability criteria.

America First Fallout

Germany surged out of the financial crisis a decade ago with robust demand from China for German cars, contributed to a historic run of uninterrupted growth and record-low unemployment. But President Donald Trump’s America First protectionism has knocked Germany’s export machine off track.

The latest sign came last week, when the Council of Economic Experts slashed its 2019 growth forecast to 0.8 percent from an earlier prediction of 1.8 percent. Its central scenario though is still for a rebound to 1.4 percent next year.

Bolstered by a robust labor market, German consumer confidence remains buoyant — projected for April to be at 10.4 points, a mild dip from a high of 11 points from February last year. The optimism has fueled strong domestic spending, which is taking the sting out of the country’s export struggles.

Even if concerns are intensifying in Berlin, the message from Merkel’s inner circle is clear: don’t rock the boat.

When Scholz told the Bild tabloid in January that “the fat years are over” he was quickly slapped down by Economy Minister Peter Altmaier, a close ally of Merkel.

“One shouldn’t undermine the economic upswing by talking it down,” Altmaier said.

Since then, Scholz has mainly referred to the country’s outlook as a “normalization.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Recessione e l’allegro pollaio di Bloomberg. Satira ovvero informazione?

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-01-18.

2019-01-14__bloomberg_pollaio__001

‘There is something brewing’ in Germany: Fears of recession after latest industrial data

«- Another set of dismal industrial data from Germany has raised concerns over Germany’s economy.

– German industrial production declined 1.9 percent month-on-month in November, coming in way below a consensus for growth of 0.3 percent.

– Germany’s statistics office publishes preliminary GDP data for the fourth quarter and 2018 next week.»

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What Is a Recession? Examples, Impact, Benefits

«A recession is when the economy declines significantly for at least six months. That means there’s a drop in the following five economic indicators: real GDP, income, employment, manufacturing, and retail sales. ….

The only good thing about a recession is that it cures inflation. The Federal Reserve must always balance between slowing the economy enough to prevent inflation without triggering a recession. Usually, the Fed does this without the help of fiscal policy. Politicians, who control the federal budget, generally try to stimulate the economy as much as possible through lowering taxes, spending on social programs and ignoring the budget deficit. That’s how the U.S. debt grew to $10.5 trillion before even a penny was spent on the Economic Stimulus Package.»

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UK manufacturing in recession despite faster GDP growth

«The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said GDP increased by 0.4% in the second quarter from a rate of 0.2% in the previous three months, helped by stronger retail sales and good weather, which enabled the construction industry to make up lost ground from heavy snow earlier this year. ….

Philip Hammond, the chancellor, said Brexit uncertainty was depressing economic growth, as he used a trip to West Midlands on Friday to unveil £780m of new funding for high-tech industries.»

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«Germania, crolla produzione industriale: “Rischio recessione tecnica aumenta”.

«Il dato che per la prima volta sta scalfendo le certezze tedesche sulla solidità della loro economia arriva dalla produzione industriale a novembre (-1,9%). ….

La Germania comincia a interrogarsi su quanto effettivamente solida sia la sua economia. L’ultimo dato che sta scalfendo le certezze tedesche arriva dalla produzione industriale: con un calo a novembre su ottobre dell’1,9% (mentre si attendeva appena un -0,3). Un crollo in termini statistici rispetto a un anno fa: –4,7 per cento. Numeri che fanno riemergere prepotentemente il rischio di una recessione tecnica»

* * * * * * *

Cerchiamo di ragionare, sempre che sia ancora possibile.

In Germania da giugno (-.9%) la produzione industriale sta diminuendo, fino al dato di -1.9% dell’8 gennaio. Tecnicamente parlando la Germania è in recessione.

In Francia la produzione industriale è -1.3%, in Italia il -2.8%, Spagna -2.66%.

Se è vero che l’11 gennaio la produzione industriale indiana era -.5%, sarebbe anche doveroso ricordare come da giugno ad ottobre fosse stata il +7.0%, +8.6%, +4.2%, +8.1%, rispettivamente.

In Cina da luglio a gennaio la produzione industriale è aumentata del 6.0%, 6.1%, 5.8%, 5.9%, 5.4%, rispettivamente.

I numeri ci indicano chiaramente come la recessione sia un fenomeno dell’Unione Europea, dalla quale India e Cina sono immuni. Sicuramente diminuiranno le loro esportazioni verso l’Unione Europea, ma stanno pur sempre ampliandosi per tassi percentuali maggiori del 5%: fosse successo in Europa Mr Juncker avrebbe brindato con un barilotto di Brunello.

* * * * * * *

Ma con Mr Macron incapsulato dai Gilets Jaunes e Frau Merkel indaffarata a sorvegliare Frau AKK che le sta facendo scarpe e corna, non sarà facile che l’Unione Europea si riprenda a breve.

Grande consolazione ci viene però dal pollaio di Bloomberg.

Se volete rovinarvi seguite i consigli del pollaio di Bloomberg.

Il pollaio di Bloomberg aveva sentenziato ‘buy’. Apple -8.81%

2019-01-14__bloomberg_pollaio__002

A starle a sentire sembrerebbero essere state catapultate da Marte sulla terra.

2019-01-14__bloomberg_pollaio__003

Come si constata dalla fotografia in cimosa, mostrano tutta la loro intelligenza, ossia cosciotti che il volgere del tempo ha reso scarsamente appetibili. Ma a starle a sentire si comprende come il loro corpo sia l’unica cosa che loro rimane: si capiscono di economia come Mr Di Maio di fisica delle particelle. Con la grande differenza che Mr Di Maio non si è mai sognato di spacciarsi per fisico.

Seguire il loro cicaleccio assorda: fino a tanto che ci siano miliardari che sganciano, qui sopravviviamo più che bene.

Già.

Questo è l’intermezzo umoristico che Bloomberg concede a noi poveri risparmiatori in cerca di un porto più o meno sicuro per il nostro miserrimo gruzzolo.

Nota.

Osservate bene. La gentile signora di destra ha una tetta più alta della controlaterale.


Bloomberg. 2019-01-14. The World’s Biggest Economies Are Moving Deeper Into a Slowdown

– OECD gauge adds to worries after numbers from Germany, China

– Central bankers have taken note of mounting global risks

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Momentum is easing across the world’s major economies, according to a gauge the OECD uses to predict turning points.

The Composite Leading Indicator is the latest sign of a synchronized slowdown in global growth, adding to recession warnings sparked by industrial figures in Germany last week and slumping trade figures for China earlier on Monday.

Easing Confirmed

Momentum is easing across the world’s major economies, according to a gauge the OECD uses to predict turning points.

The Composite Leading Indicator is the latest sign of a synchronized slowdown in global growth, adding to recession warnings sparked by industrial figures in Germany last week and slumping trade figures for China earlier on Monday.

Easing Confirmed

Growth in the some of the world’s biggest economies is slowing

The indicator, which is designed to anticipate turning points six-to-nine months ahead, has been ticking down since the start of 2018 and fell again in November. The OECD singled out the U.S. and Germany, where it said “tentative signs” of easing momentum are now confirmed.

Just two weeks into 2019, the OECD economic indicator follows a run of numbers that mean growth this year could be even slower than currently anticipated. For Bloomberg Economics, the data point to “slowdown, not meltdown,” but it still says the loss of momentum is “striking.”

What Our Economists Say:

“The early signs from the data suggest the world economy lost momentum as it entered 2019.” The median from a mapping of global measures “suggests gains may have dropped below the 3 percent mark for the first time since late 2016. That’s about 0.7 percentage point below the average since 2010 and a full percentage point below the 2000–2007 average. That slowdown is striking.”

China

Trade-tensions with the U.S. are showing up in data. Chinese exports slumped 4.4 percent in December from a year earlier, marking the worst performance in dollar terms since 2016. Imports also dropped the most since 2016, hinting at softening demand at home that could have implications for exporters to China.

The numbers sent stocks lower in Europe and Asia. The Stoxx 600 Index was down almost 1 percent as of 12 p.m. Frankfurt time.

The indicator, which is designed to anticipate turning points six-to-nine months ahead, has been ticking down since the start of 2018 and fell again in November. The OECD singled out the U.S. and Germany, where it said “tentative signs” of easing momentum are now confirmed.

Just two weeks into 2019, the OECD economic indicator follows a run of numbers that mean growth this year could be even slower than currently anticipated. For Bloomberg Economics, the data point to “slowdown, not meltdown,” but it still says the loss of momentum is “striking.”

What Our Economists Say:

“The early signs from the data suggest the world economy lost momentum as it entered 2019.” The median from a mapping of global measures “suggests gains may have dropped below the 3 percent mark for the first time since late 2016. That’s about 0.7 percentage point below the average since 2010 and a full percentage point below the 2000–2007 average. That slowdown is striking.”

–Bloombeg Economics. Read the Global Dashboard 

China

Trade-tensions with the U.S. are showing up in data. Chinese exports slumped 4.4 percent in December from a year earlier, marking the worst performance in dollar terms since 2016. Imports also dropped the most since 2016, hinting at softening demand at home that could have implications for exporters to China.

The numbers sent stocks lower in Europe and Asia. The Stoxx 600 Index was down almost 1 percent as of 12 p.m. Frankfurt time.

The indicator, which is designed to anticipate turning points six-to-nine months ahead, has been ticking down since the start of 2018 and fell again in November. The OECD singled out the U.S. and Germany, where it said “tentative signs” of easing momentum are now confirmed.

Just two weeks into 2019, the OECD economic indicator follows a run of numbers that mean growth this year could be even slower than currently anticipated. For Bloomberg Economics, the data point to “slowdown, not meltdown,” but it still says the loss of momentum is “striking.”

China

Trade-tensions with the U.S. are showing up in data. Chinese exports slumped 4.4 percent in December from a year earlier, marking the worst performance in dollar terms since 2016. Imports also dropped the most since 2016, hinting at softening demand at home that could have implications for exporters to China.

The numbers sent stocks lower in Europe and Asia. The Stoxx 600 Index was down almost 1 percent as of 12 p.m. Frankfurt time.

Trade Slumps

End of front-loaded export demand and slowing economy hit trade

Source: Customs General Administration

Euro Area

Industry in the region’s major economies had a grim month in November. Output declined 1.7 percent, with a slump in Germany sparking talk that it could shrink for a second quarter, putting it in a technical recession. There are also concerns about Italy’s economy, while riots and protests in France have hit growth there.

U.S.

Jobs growth remains strong, according to the latest payrolls report, but measures of activity have weakened. The Institute for Supply Management’s key manufacturing gauge is at a two-year low, and the housing market is cooling. Overall expansion is forecast to moderate this year, partly due to a fading boost from the Trump administration’s tax cuts.

Federal Reserve policy makers have taken note of the changed outlook and suggested they could pause their interest-rate hike cycle as they await clarity. Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the Fed can be “patient and flexible and wait and see what does evolve.”