Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Merkel. Mission impossible. Polonia ed Ungheria la sberleffano.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-10-20.

Merkel e Juncker

Coalizione? Numericamente possibile ma politicamente impraticabile.

Dimissioni, governo di minoranza, elezioni anticipate.

Frau Merkel adesso conta meno di Mr Gentiloni.

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«This risks limiting Merkel’s freedom in policymaking»

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«The euro zone and refugee crises, which were not foreseen in coalition agreements, were addressed with ad hoc decisions.»

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«But if Merkel is unable to form a three-way coalition with the FDP and Greens, she could try to team up again with the SPD – though the SPD has said it wants to go into opposition»

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«Should the SPD reject her approach and Merkel find herself unable to form a government, she could try to form a minority government, or else call fresh elections – an unprecedented scenario. »

* * * * * * * * * * *

«The upshot is that she must draw on all her consensus-building skills to form a ruling alliance of her conservatives, the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) and the Greens.»

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«The terms of a coalition deal, should one be reached, could determine Merkel’s room for maneuver on both the domestic and international stage.»

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«Any constraints on her ability to swiftly shape and enact policies could compromise Germany’s leadership role»

* * * * * * * * * * *

Chi avesse memoria buona potrebbe ricordarsi il comportamento arrogante ed supponente della Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel sia in patria sia in Europa.

Prima del 24 settembre.

Poland to be STRIPPED of EU voting rights as MERKEL doesn’t agree with domestic reforms

Merkel backs Brussels in row with Poland over courts

Merkel backs EU concerns over rule of law in Poland

Dopo il 24 settembre.

Polish PM congratulates Merkel on election win

«Szydło’s message to Merkel was published on social media platform Twitter by a government spokesman.

“I wish … to congratulate you personally and the party which you head… I am certain that the future coalition, under your leadership, will serve German citizens, European integration and strengthening good ties with Poland,” Szydło said in her message to Merkel.»

Poland in favour of Turkey joining EU: Polish president

* * *

Prima del 24 settembre.

Merkel: Hungary can’t ignore EU refugee ruling

Merkel calls on Hungary to implement court ruling on refugee distribution

Merkel’s war on Hungary: German Chancellor threatens to KICK Budapest OUT of EU

Amnesty Int’l Urges Merkel to Challenge Crackdown on NGOs in Hungary

EU warns of legal action against Hungary’s NGO law

Dopo il 24 settembre.

Orban congratulates CSU and CDU on German election victory

«I trust we can cooperate along these common values to further develop Hungarian-German relations and to resolve the challenges facing our continent …. I wish you success in bringing the right wing together along our shared principles»

* * * * * * * * * * *

I messaggi augurali di Mrs Szydło e di Mr Orban sono tutto un programma.

Si sono tolti non sassolini, bensì macigni dalle scarpe: “Turkey joining EU” e “our shared principles“, rispettivamente.

Frau Merkel dovrà bersi barilotti di olio di ricino. Di quell’olio di ricino che avrebbe voluto far bere agli altri.


Reuters. 2017-10-17. Mission impossible? Merkel’s coalition conundrum just got harder

BERLIN (Reuters) – She has earned a reputation as Europe’s chief crisis manager. Now Germany’s Angela Merkel must forge a government out of an awkward group of allies bent on nailing down a coalition deal so tight it risks limiting her room to act if crisis strikes again.

The chancellor goes into talks this week about forming a government. But her task, already tough after she lost ground in a Sept. 24 national election, is all the harder after defeat in a regional vote on Sunday further weakened her hand.

The upshot is that she must draw on all her consensus-building skills to form a ruling alliance of her conservatives, the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) and the Greens.

The terms of a coalition deal, should one be reached, could determine Merkel’s room for maneuver on both the domestic and international stage.

During her 12 years in power, she has been able to steer Europe through its euro zone and refugee crises, in part due to her dominance at home. Any constraints on her ability to swiftly shape and enact policies could compromise Germany’s leadership role.

If the three party groups fail to reach a deal at all, some in their ranks fear this could lead to public disenchantment and fuel further support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which entered parliament for the first time last month.

The combination of the groups going into coalition talks is untested at national level and Merkel’s would-be allies are not guaranteeing success. The chancellor’s Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian allies meet the FDP and Greens separately on Wednesday before they all meet on Friday.

“Now we must gauge whether a platform for common policy can be found. For me, that is undecided,” FDP leader Christian Lindner told Deutschlandfunk radio on Tuesday.

Adding to the complications, the CDU, FDP, and Greens want to put any deal to their grassroots party members for approval. FDP deputy leader Wolfgang Kubicki has said “it would be illusory to believe we could conclude negotiations by Christmas”.

IMMIGRATION SPLIT

One major area of contention is immigration policy.

The CDU and their conservative Bavarian allies, the Christian Social Union (CSU), have agreed a limit of 200,000 a year on the number of migrants Germany would accept on humanitarian grounds.

But the other parties reject a cap and instead favor an immigration law with criteria to attract highly educated workers to plug skills shortages. They say the CDU/CSU migrants agreement should not be baked into a coalition deal.

Juergen Trittin of the Greens said pressure on the conservative bloc to shift right – after bleeding support to the AfD – could complicate the talks on forming a “Jamaica” coalition, so-called because the parties’ colors correspond with the Jamaican flag.

“I fear this will make the Jamaica exploratory talks much more difficult,” Trittin told the Passauer Neue Presse.

The three party groups also have deep differences on issues ranging from European Union reform and tax to the environment.

A Jamaica coalition was formed in the tiny western German state of Saarland in October 2009, but collapsed in January 2012. The same formation took power in the far northern region of Schleswig-Holstein after elections there in May this year.

MUTUAL SUSPICION

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, the conservative state premier of Saarland who led the former Jamaica alliance there, stressed the need to establish trust between the three national groups.

“It is important that there is a basic understanding among those people negotiating,” she added. Asked how to foster trust and understanding, she replied: “Talk, talk, talk.”

But the size of the negotiating teams – the CDU/CSU and Greens have 28 and 14 people respectively – is undermining trust before the talks have even begun.

Kubicki told Focus magazine it was a “cardinal error” to enter the discussions with such large teams, adding this was “not conducive to building trust and no basis for good and confidential negotiations”.

The result of the mutual suspicion is that negotiators are pushing for “deeper agreements” in a coalition deal than in the 130 pages agreed by the outgoing ‘grand coalition’ of Merkel’s conservatives and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD).

This risks limiting Merkel’s freedom in policymaking. The euro zone and refugee crises, which were not foreseen in coalition agreements, were addressed with ad hoc decisions.

Germany’s budget surplus may help smooth the path in the coalition talks, however. It gives scope to satisfy all sides, to some degree, by paying for both tax cuts and investment in areas such as upgrading infrastructure for the digital age.

But if Merkel is unable to form a three-way coalition with the FDP and Greens, she could try to team up again with the SPD – though the SPD has said it wants to go into opposition. Should the SPD reject her approach and Merkel find herself unable to form a government, she could try to form a minority government, or else call fresh elections – an unprecedented scenario.

“If we don’t get this under control, the political system we’ve had for 70 years – and the stability it has brought – will be threatened,” said one senior conservative, speaking under condition of anonymity.

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Summit EU. Duda auspica l’ingresso della Turkia.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-10-18.

Poland- Warsaw. 001. jpg

Quasi di norma in politica internazionale rende più avere pochi nemici piuttosto che avere tanti amici.

I tedeschi in generale, e Frau Merkel in particolare, hanno un’arte raffinata e sopraffina nel sapersi conquistare gratuitamente e senza beneficio alcuno un gran numero di nemici.

Dopo aver litigato con la Russia e gli Stati Uniti, i paesi membri della Nato e la Turkia in modo particolare, Frau Merkel aveva intrapreso la sua personalissima crociata contro la Polonia, rea di voler riorganizzare il proprio sistema giudiziario sulla falsariga di quello tedesco, e l’Ungheria, rea di non volere i migranti e, soprattutto, di declinare l’opera caritativa svolta sul suo territorio dalle ong di Mr Soros.

«On Thursday and Friday (19-20 October), EU leaders will meet in Brussels, with Brexit as one of the main topics, after five rounds of talks with the UK. …. The agenda, put together by European Council chief Donald Tusk, is a work programme based on discussions and ideas about the future of Europe …. will talk about Turkey» [Euro Observer]

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«Poland hopes Turkey will eventually join the European Union, Polish President Andrzej Duda said on Tuesday, days ahead of an EU summit which will discuss the frayed relations between Brussels and Ankara»

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«The EU, particularly heavyweight member Germany, has become increasingly critical of Turkey since President Tayyip Erdogan launched large-scale purges of state institutions, the military, the judiciary and academia after a failed coup in July 2016»

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«Poland has supported and (also) today supports Turkey’s EU accession efforts»

* * * * * * * *

Il 24 settembre ha cambiato i rapporti di forza all’interno dell’Unione Europea.

Adesso a quanto sembra la minuscola Polonia può permettersi di contrastare le idee di Frau Merkel senza essere sbranata.

Non si osa pensare casa succederà quando tra qualche settimana cambieranno i capi di stato dell’Austria e della Repubblica Ceka, ed al posto di due supporter di Frau Merkel arriveranno due euroscettici.


Reuters. 2017-10-18. Polish President Duda says hopes Turkey will join EU

WARSAW (Reuters) – Poland hopes Turkey will eventually join the European Union, Polish President Andrzej Duda said on Tuesday, days ahead of an EU summit which will discuss the frayed relations between Brussels and Ankara.

The EU, particularly heavyweight member Germany, has become increasingly critical of Turkey since President Tayyip Erdogan launched large-scale purges of state institutions, the military, the judiciary and academia after a failed coup in July 2016.

“Poland has supported and (also) today supports Turkey’s EU accession efforts,” Duda told a joint news conference with Erdogan during his visit to Warsaw.

“I hope Turkey and the EU will continue on the same path … leading to a full membership for Turkey.”

EU leaders will discuss the bloc’s deteriorating ties with Ankara on Oct. 19 during a two-day summit.

Turkey’s 12-year-long accession talks, already dogged by disputes on a range of issues, have ground to a halt since the post-coup crackdown, in which more than 50,000 people have been jailed pending trial and some 150,000 – including judges, journalists and soldiers – have been sacked or suspended.

Within the EU, Poland has traditionally been among the most staunch supporters of enlargement, including Turkey’s accession.

Erdogan, speaking alongside Duda, reiterated his criticism of the EU’s accession policy, saying the bloc should announce the end of talks if it doesn’t mean to accept Turkey.

“We won’t bother you any further and you don’t bother us,” he said.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Unione Europea. Inizia a disgregarsi. Catalogna, Ungheria, Polonia….

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-10-07.

Orban Kaczynski Babis

Gli articolisti di Bloomberg hanno le idee estremamente chiare.

Chiunque professi fede liberal oppure socialista è buono, bello, santo, colto, civile, intelligente, degno di governare su tutto e su tutti. Chiunque non condivida codeste idee è un ‘populista’, qualunquista, incivile, zotico, rude, degno solo di essere impiegato come schiavo. Se persistesse, allora sarebbe anche xenofobo, codino, razzista, fascista, nazista e persino, culmine del disonore, omofobo.

Il fatto che i liberal democratici siano stati sonoramente battuti da Mr Trump non li turba, così come sembrerebbero tetragoni al fatto che il partito socialista francese sia sceso dal 62% all’8% e che Frau Merkel abbia preso una facciata da distruggere un incrociatore da battaglia.

Continuano a vivere come se negli Stati Uniti ci fosse ancora Mr Obama, in Francia Mr Hollande, ed Germania la Frau Merkel della Große Koalition. Ma non ci sono più.

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Una volta chiariti questi aspetti, è interessante leggere questo articolo.

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«Some of the great moments of history sneak up on businesspeople»

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«First, there were some deep underlying “irrational” causes that business ignored, such as the pent-up anger against immigration and globalization»

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«Second, there was a string of short-term political decisions that proved to be miscalculations.»

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«Does Angela Merkel now regret giving Cameron so few concessions before the Brexit vote?»

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«Now, another rupture may be sneaking up on Europe, driven by a similar mixture of pent-up anger and short-term political maneuvering»

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«This one is between the old West European democratic core of the EU, led by Merkel and increasingly by Emmanuel Macron, who are keen to integrate the euro zone, and the populist authoritarians of Eastern Europe, who dislike Brussels»

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«Later this month it looks likely the Czechs will have a new Trumpian prime minister—Andrej Babis, a populist billionaire who wants to send Arab immigrants back home and promises to make the government work as well as his businesses do»

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«Babis is plainly opposed to increased European integration of the sort that Macron wants and is also against Brussels meddling in Eastern Europe»

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«he is likely to be bundled in with Viktor Orban of Hungary and Jaroslaw Kaczynski of Poland as part of Europe’s authoritarian fringe»

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«Orban is expected to easily win Hungary’s elections next year»

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«Macron complained about people turning a blind eye to Poland and Hungary—and said he would seek sanctions on Poland for infringing EU rules and values while benefiting economically from membership»

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«Kaczynski. …. Like Orban and Babis, he’s fiercely opposed to any idea of increasing powers in Brussels or increasing the gap that separates the inner core of euro-currency countries. But he’s much worse at cutting deals with Europe»

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Sembrerebbero costituzionalmente incapaci di comprendere che l’essere umano non può essere ridotto al mero uomo economico, e che l’economia non è solo quella liberal.

Per questo motivo considerano “irrazionale” «the pent-up anger against immigration and globalization».

Poi, come se nulla fosse successo, si domandano se Frau Merkel non avesse fatto meglio ad essere stata più diplomatica durante la crisi anglo – europea che ha portato al Brexit.

Ma come ciliegina sulla torta, che Mr Donald Tusk sia un brav’uomo la dovrebbero andare a contare ad altri: è un uomo che ha tradito la sua patria.

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«Rumblings in Catalonia may only be the beginning.

Tensions are growing in Eastern Europe»

Proprio vero.

Il fragore della Catalogna preannuncia tensioni in crescita nell’Europea orientale.

Ma il problema non è solo politico. I mutamenti politici che stanno avvenendo in Germania, in Spagna e nei paesi dell’est europeo preludono a mutamenti nella conduzione della Banca Centrale Europea, e tutto questo con una governance europea traballante, conflittuale, senza un preciso piano di azione.

La ricetta ideale per il perfetto default.


Bloomberg. 2017-10-05. Europe Could See Another Brexit-Like Rupture—Beyond Spain

Rumblings in Catalonia may only be the beginning. Tensions are growing in Eastern Europe.

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Some of the great moments of history sneak up on businesspeople. Two years ago, Britain looked to be Europe’s most economically rational country; now its companies seem to be rolling from one economic earthquake to another, with Brexit looking increasingly likely to be followed by the election of a near-Marxist prime minister, Jeremy Corbyn.

Looking back, two things stand out. First, there were some deep underlying “irrational” causes that business ignored, such as the pent-up anger against immigration and globalization. Second, there was a string of short-term political decisions that proved to be miscalculations. For decades, for example, attacking the European Union was a “free hit” for British politicians. If David Cameron had it to do over again, would he really have made the referendum on whether to stay in it a simple majority vote (or indeed called a vote at all)? Does Angela Merkel now regret giving Cameron so few concessions before the Brexit vote? Would the moderate Labour members of Parliament who helped Corbyn get on their party’s leadership ballot in the name of political diversity really do that again?

Now, another rupture may be sneaking up on Europe, driven by a similar mixture of pent-up anger and short-term political maneuvering. This one is between the old West European democratic core of the EU, led by Merkel and increasingly by Emmanuel Macron, who are keen to integrate the euro zone, and the populist authoritarians of Eastern Europe, who dislike Brussels. This time the arguments are ones about political freedom and national sovereignty.

Later this month it looks likely the Czechs will have a new Trumpian prime minister—Andrej Babis, a populist billionaire who wants to send Arab immigrants back home and promises to make the government work as well as his businesses do. To be fair to Babis, he’s a rather more subtle figure than the American president (not to mention a more successful businessman). He is, for instance, careful to emphasize his respect for the judiciary and, on immigration, he welcomes newcomers from Ukraine, pointing out that he himself comes from Slovakia. His main appeal is efficiency (he fumes about his former coalition partners playing with their phones in cabinet meetings).

However, Babis is plainly opposed to increased European integration of the sort that Macron wants and is also against Brussels meddling in Eastern Europe. That means that, whatever the subtleties of Babis’s relatively centrist brand of populism, he is likely to be bundled in with Viktor Orban of Hungary and Jaroslaw Kaczynski of Poland as part of Europe’s authoritarian fringe.

Kaczynski is not the formal leader of Poland, but he runs the right-wing Law & Justice Party that holds both the presidency and the premiership (which he’s delegated to others). A fierce critic of Merkel, especially on immigration, he’s at almost permanent war with the EU, with his battles ranging from institutional—after Brexit, he called for powers to be returned from Brussels—to the personal—he tried (unsuccessfully) to stop his more conciliatory fellow Pole, Donald Tusk, from becoming president of the European Council. For the EU’s part, Frans Timmermans, a European Commission vice president, is formally investigating Law & Justice’s judicial “reforms,” which look like an attempt to clear out any unsympathetic judges, and its interference in the press. At its worst, this could mean triggering Article 7, which would suspend Poland’s voting rights on the European Council.

Kaczynski once boasted that he would make Warsaw into Budapest. That reflects how Hungary’s Orban has led the way. A far more diplomatic figure than Kaczynski, Orban, who once was an anti-Soviet firebrand, also stands accused of reining in the judiciary and besmirching his opponents (including the EU): His government is currently circulating a publicly funded “national consultation,” a piece of cartoon propaganda about what it calls the “Soros plan,” whereby the EU would implement a dastardly scheme of Hungarian-born financier George Soros to dismantle Hungary’s anti-migrant border fences and pay migrants to come to Europe. But Orban has generally been smarter than his Polish disciple about retreating before the EU takes any action. Despite opposition posters depicting him and his business friends as gangsters, Orban is expected to easily win Hungary’s elections next year.

This brings home the basic fact about all three populists: They’re popular. Businesspeople in the region tend to shrug off the chances of schism with the EU. Their economies are doing well, they point out. Yes, few Eastern Europeans are keen to have Syrian refugees as neighbors, but that is also true in France and Germany (revealingly, in September’s German election, it was the eastern regions that voted most fervently for the anti-EU party, the AfD). Businesspeople tend to stress that Orban and Babis are pragmatists, that they will stop before they go too far. Business is also confident that Germany in particular will not want to sever relations with an area that is now so completely integrated with its own economy.

Babis, the most businesslike of the three leaders, backs this view. He fears that if there were a referendum tomorrow, Czechs would vote to leave, but that is precisely why he would not consider holding one. It would be mad for a country of the Czech Republic’s size to even think of leaving the union.

The business view seems logical enough. But it’s also a little like the pre-Brexit presumption of British business: In the end, the common man (and woman) would listen to the voices of economic reason and choose to remain. The problem was that British voters didn’t think that way. After decades of being told how useless the EU was—especially on migration—millions of angry Britons voted to leave. Meanwhile, many of the EU’s leaders, having put up with British opposition for a long time, said good riddance.

In Eastern Europe, one reason the odds are still against a schism is that the Poles, Czechs, and Hungarians have the ever more disastrous case study of Brexit to look at. Meanwhile, Western Europe’s leaders are not in a rush to lose more members. But there is also the chance of short-term politicking getting in the way—of action creating reaction.

In this case, two personalities are likely to play outsize roles. One is the new French president. On the campaign trail, Macron complained about people turning a blind eye to Poland and Hungary—and said he would seek sanctions on Poland for infringing EU rules and values while benefiting economically from membership. There is principle behind this: The EU was supposed to usher countries toward democracy and, especially in the Trumpian world, sees itself as a defender of human rights. But politics also plays a role: Few French voters would shed tears if less money went to Hungary and it was harder for Polish plumbers to get jobs in Paris. And now Macron wants to push ahead with efforts to integrate the EU, centering on the euro zone, which will enrage the eastern countries that are outside the currency union.

The other personality is Kaczynski. Volatile, paranoid (he recently accused his “scumbag” political opponents of “murdering” his brother), and obsessed by his country’s tragic history, the Polish leader makes Boris Johnson seem rather predictable and easy to handle. Like Orban and Babis, he’s fiercely opposed to any idea of increasing powers in Brussels or increasing the gap that separates the inner core of euro-currency countries. But he’s much worse at cutting deals with Europe.

What would happen if the EU imposed more punishments? If a Macron-inspired plan for greater integration was torpedoed by the Poles? The chances are that Europe won’t undergo another great division. But that was also the probability when Cameron called his referendum. In Europe at the moment it is foolish for businesspeople to ignore the possibilities—and in this case, they’re frightening.

Pubblicato in: Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Unione Europea

Polonia. Sta nascendo un nuovo polo finanziario europeo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-09-28.

Varsavia 001

Mentre Frau Merkel tenta di catechizzare i suoi concittadini ed il mondo per convertirli al nuovo credo alteramente senziente, pensante ed operante, la Polonia le sta scippando sotto il naso le sede operative europee delle maggiori banche mondiali.

Tutto era nato negli scorsi anni e si era concretizzato a fine giugno.

A quell’epoca già iniziavano a circolare le proiezioni elettorali per pochi intimi, quelle reali.

Germania. Analisi del voto federale. 1. Classi di età.

Germania. Analisi del voto federale.2. Altre caratteristiche. Est – Ovest.

Germania. Analisi del voto federale. 3. I voti nei Länder.

Germania. Heimat risorta, viva e vegeta. Il perché di una vittoria.

Europa. La devoluzione del socialismo ideologico. – Spiegel

Tutti i grandi investitori erano, e sono, consci che le elezioni tedesche avrebbero mutato gli equilibri politici in Europa.

Ma nel contempo tutti i grandi investitori hanno da lunga pezza ben presente la situazione tedesca, come si prospetta nel medio – lungo termine.

Germania. Incidenza economica del calo demografico. – Bloomberg.

Germania. Realtà geografica, non più umana, politica ed economica.

Germania. 13 milioni di poveri e 330,000 famiglie con la luce tagliata.

Germania. Non è povera. È misera. – Financial Times

Germania. Sassonia. La realtà travolge i tedeschi. Ed è solo l’inizio.

Germania. La demografia che stritola. Mancano tre milioni di lavoratori. – Vbw.

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Se questi problemi fossero chiari, tutto quello che sta succedendo sarebbe di una evidente semplicità. La Polonia diventa immediatamente appetibile a discapito della Germania.

La conseguenza di tutto quanto sopra riportato è sequenziale: i grandi investitori si domandano se valga ancora la pena fare investimenti strategici in Germania. E la risposta è no.

Certamente resta ancora possibile fare qualche affaruccio, ma investimenti strategici sicuramente no.

*  * *

Trump visiterà la Polonia il sei luglio.

Mr Trump non era andato in Polonia per parlare di giardinaggio.

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Radio Poland aveva dato un primo timido annuncio il 23 gennaio c.a.:

«Three Polish cities: Warsaw, Kraków and Wrocław are being considered for opening a new office of financial company JP Morgan Chase, the Puls Biznesu daily reported.

Kraków’s city hall confirmed that its representatives held a meeting with JP Morgan officials.

According to the daily, Poland is not the only country considered by JP Morgan, and a number of European cities are competing to lure the company, whose investment could create 2,500 new jobs.

Puls Biznesu added that investment banker, Goldman Sachs, will also probably relocate its back-office from London’s city to Warsaw following Brexit.

Mateusz Morawiecki, Poland’s Finance and Development Minister has said that due to the UK leaving the EU, the Polish services sector might see 20,000 new jobs created between 2016 and the end of 2017.»

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Reuters aveva ripreso la notizia il 26 di aprile:

«U.S. bank JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) is zooming in on Warsaw as a destination for its new back office operations center which could eventually employ several thousand people supporting the bank’s European and Asian business, sources said.

As Britain prepares to leave the European Union, and banks and other financial firms look to shift jobs from London’s financial center, Poland has set its sights on mid-tier work where salaries may not be astronomical but jobs are numerous.

A delegation from JPMorgan visited Warsaw last month, the sources said, to look for real estate that could house the new center, which could become of the largest of its kind in Poland.

“The focus is definitely Warsaw,” said one source familiar with the matter, speaking anonymously as discussions are not public.

JPMorgan has also visited Poland’s western city of Wroclaw and Hungary’s capital Budapest as possible contenders»

*

Careers in Poland aveva dato ulteriore conferma l’11 maggio, ricordando come in Polonia si fossero già rtasferite importanti attività di Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse ed UBS:

«Warsaw is about to become home of another eminent operations centre – this time for USA’s investment bank, JPMorgan Chase. Although the information has yet to be confirmed, Poland is a firm contender in the race to secure the position of JPMorgan’s next location. The bank is said to be looking for new office sites as a result of Brexit. This would make JPMorgan Chase another institution planning to shift away from London’s City after Britain’s ‘leave’ vote last year.

The back office centre that JPMorgan is looking to open would deal with bank’s businesses in Europe and Asia. Poland is certainly capable of providing enough workforce and has experience in attracting foreign employees as well. Although no clear declarations have been made, the financial centre may several thousand people – according to some sources about 2,500 employees, although initially it would hire less than a hundred people.»

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Di questi giorni la conferma data da Reuter.

«Poland’s government expects JPMorgan Chase & Co. to open an operational center in Warsaw, swelling the ranks of banks attracted by Poland’s lower costs amid competition by European cities for jobs set to move away from London»

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«The deal is done»

*

«UBS Group AG has set up a global hub in Krakow »

*

«Goldman Sachs, which is planning to halve its London staff to 3,000 workers, will expand in Warsaw to “several hundred” people over the next three year »

*

«Brexit could bring as many as 30,000 business service-sector jobs to Poland»

*

«Business outsourcing centers opened by foreign corporates have added 198,000 jobs in Poland, including 32,000 in the 12 months to March, with many of them in the financial industry, according to the Association of Business Service Leaders in Poland»

*

«That compares with 275,000 people employed in the traditional financial sector as of the first quarter, according to the Central Statistical Office»

* * * * * * * *

Nel 2000 la Polonia aveva un pil di 171.276 miliardi Usd, che nel 2016 è cresciuto a 467.591. Il Q1 ed il Q2 di questo anno hanno segnato un +4.2% ed un +4.4%, rispettivamente.

Nel 2000 il pil procapite era 4,476 Usd che nel 2016 è arrivato a 12,314 Usd.


Bloomberg. 2017-09-24. JPMorgan to Hire ‘Thousands’ for Operations Hub in Poland

– Deputy Prime Minister Morawiecki says sealed deal with lender

– Pekao starts hiring Polish bankers from U.K. amid Brexit risks

*

Poland’s government expects JPMorgan Chase & Co. to open an operational center in Warsaw, swelling the ranks of banks attracted by Poland’s lower costs amid competition by European cities for jobs set to move away from London.

The U.S. bank, which is poised to hire “several thousand people,” according to Polish Deputy Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, adds to list of foreign lenders that have been relocating some mid- and back-office positions to the formerly communist European Union member.

“The world’s largest bank will have a headquarters here and will hire several thousand people in management, risk management and logistics, which is good as these are well paid jobs,” Morawiecki told public radio Trojka on Friday. “The deal is done.”

UBS Group AG has set up a global hub in Krakow, while Goldman Sachs, which is planning to halve its London staff to 3,000 workers, will expand in Warsaw to “several hundred” people over the next three years, Handelsblatt has reported. Morawiecki said this year that Brexit could bring as many as 30,000 business service-sector jobs to Poland.

Jennifer Zuccarelli, a spokeswoman at JPMorgan in London, declined to comment. A spokeswoman said in January that the bank was “always reviewing our options to improve our real estate strategy for back-office functions” and that the process had “nothing to do with” Brexit.

Outsourcing Centers

Business outsourcing centers opened by foreign corporates have added 198,000 jobs in Poland, including 32,000 in the 12 months to March, with many of them in the financial industry, according to the Association of Business Service Leaders in Poland. That compares with 275,000 people employed in the traditional financial sector as of the first quarter, according to the Central Statistical Office.

New positions in the banking industry in Warsaw offer salaries from $1,400 to $5,050 per month, according to ABSL. That compares with the average annual salary of about $62,000 in financial services in the U.K., according to job recruitment agency Reed.

Separately, Poland’s second biggest lender Pekao SA announced a prominent hire from among the group of Poles who had been building their careers in London’s financial center, flagging the move as a symbol of Warsaw’s growing allure for financial professionals amid Brexit risks.

The lender took on Roksana Ciurysek-Gedir, who has headed a team at Credit Suisse’s wealth management unit, as deputy chief executive officer. Pekao’s acting CEO Michal Krupinski, himself a former investment banker in Merrill Lynch, expects more hires from London in the coming weeks.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Merkel e Macron. Großdeutsches Reich oppure Europa Unita Politicamente?

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-09-03.

Candele e lampadina

Il Großdeutsches Reich vide la luce nella metà del 1943 e scomparve nel maggio 1945.

Se è vero che durò in vita due soli anni, è altrettanto vero che fece guai inenarrabili.

Se infatti era chiarissimo che aveva perso la guerra, nelle zone occupate poteva esercitare tutto il potere che voleva. E lo esercitò con aspra durezza.

*

Prepariamoci quindi. Il predominio politico di Frau Merkel e di Mr Macron durerà in Europa fino alla primavera del 2019, quando si andrà a votare per il rinnovo del parlamento europeo. In quella occasione, sempre che la situazione attuale perduri, il quadro parlamentare dovrebbe subire radicali variazioni, con la quasi scomparsa del partito socialista europeo e l’ingresso in forze dei partiti anti-establishment: si dovrebbe infatti votare con il sistema proporzionale.

Populismo. Cosa sia e come lo quantizzi il Populism Index (Epicentric).

*

Frau Merkel e  Mr Macron vogliono rafforzare il potere centrale europeo, anche se differiscono alquanto sull’obiettivo finale. Si preannunciano quindi periodi difficili per i singoli stati.

«French President Emmanuel Macron, elected in May on a pro-EU platform, said he wanted to strengthen Europe’s single currency union in light of Brexit and pledged to announce proposals after Germany’s election on Sept. 24.»

*

«“This is a revamp that we need,” he told an annual assembly of French ambassadors in Paris, promising “concrete steps in around 10 areas” and adding that the EU could not afford to “get stuck in routine or technocratic quarrels”.»

*

«In Berlin, Chancellor Angela Merkel, who met Macron on Monday, endorsed the idea of a European Monetary Fund and said she could imagine creating a combined European finance and economy minister.»

*

«deeper euro zone integration»

*

«Such a Fund would evolve out of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) – a rescue facility set up in 2012 to help defuse the euro zone crisis that threatened to tear apart the common-currency bloc at the heart of the EU»

*

«Merkel, who wants to proof the currency union against future crises, said she did not rule out a French idea to have a common euro zone finance minister. “I could also imagine a (combined) economy and finance minister,” she said, adding that this could allow for better coordination on budget and economic policies»

*

«She also called for more European cooperation on migrant policy, pressed Turkey to release German citizens it has detained, and said she could not hold her tongue on the issue of the rule of law in Poland»

*

«Merkel further said she could not remain mum about what EU leaders, activists and opposition politicians in Poland say is a lurch towards authoritarianism in Warsaw under the nationalist Law and Justice Party (PiS), which won election in 2015»

*

«The rule of law in Poland – that’s a serious issue because the requirements for cooperation within the European Union are the principles of the rule of law»

* * * * * * * * *

Si potrebbe presumere che Frau Merkel e Mr Macron enunceranno il loro progetto ad ottobre, dopo le elezioni in Germania e quelle in Austria.

Il loro progetto sarebbe molto differente da quello precedente di Mr Juncker, che mirava ad una unità politica dell’Unione Europea, ossia a dare un deciso risvolto politico stabilizzato al Consiglio Europeo, organo che si riunisce periodicamente per definire “le priorità e gli orientamenti politici generali” e che è composto dai capi di Stato o di governo dei paesi membri dell’Unione Europea.

Frau Merkel e Mr Macron vorrebbero fare evolvere lo European Stability Mechanism in un Fondo che permettesse una “deeper euro zone integration”, dotata anche di un ministro dell’economia e della finanza. Va da sé che un simile ministro dovrebbe ricevere amplissime deleghe di potere legislativo ed anche coercitivo.

In poche parole, chi detenga i cordoni della borsa eserciterebbe un immenso potere politico.

Tra i molti problemi ne segnaliamo due.

In primo luogo, quando fu istituita l’Europa Unita tutti davano per scontato che i paesi membri avrebbero poi adottato concordemente la stessa valuta, ossia l’euro. Ciò non avvenne nei fatti: ad ora si hanno stati membri del’Unione che non usano come moneta l’euro. Di conseguenza il Consiglio Europeo non può deliberare nel settore economico e finanziario. Che poi ogni tanto lo faccia con il tacito assenso è un illecito, anche se accettato da tutti.

In secondo luogo, ciò che usualmente è denominata Eurozona legalmente non esiste: è solo l’insieme degli stati membri dell’Unione Europea che adottano l’euro come valuta ufficiale.

Le politiche monetarie dell’eurozona sono regolate esclusivamente dalla Banca centrale europea, con sede a Francoforte sul Meno. L’armonizzazione delle politiche economiche e fiscali dell’area euro è agevolata, ma non diretta, dalle periodiche riunioni dell’Eurogruppo, organismo composto dai Ministri dell’economia e delle finanze degli Stati aderenti alla valuta comune che tradizionalmente precede i vertici dell’Ecofin. Ma l’Ecofin è composto dai Ministri delle finanze degli stati membri, non da capi di stato o di governo, ossia dai legali rappresentanti.

*

Dovrebbe essere adesso evidente quanto sia difficile poter nominare un ministro dell’economia e della finanza che possa esercitare pieni poteri.

* * *

A ciò si aggiungano molti altri problemi, primo tra i quali le differenti esigenze politiche ed economiche degli stati del nord da quelle degli stati del sud, contrapposizione che potrebbe anche evolversi in seri attriti, per non parlare di eventuali rotture.

Se poi ci si aggiungesse anche la posizione nei confronti di Polonia ed Ungheria, che rivendicano una loro propria autonomia legislativa nazionale, si potrebbe constatare come il chaos attuale sia di non indifferente portata.

In conclusione, sembrerebbero esserci ottimi motivi per ritenere che tutto dovrebbe andare come è sempre andato, ossia che l’asse franco-tedesco farà ciò che vorrà, ma solo fino a tanto che mantenga il potere.

Perché le prossime elezioni europee potrebbero essere dirimenti?

«Il Parlamento europeo (anche noto come Europarlamento) è un’istituzione di tipo parlamentare dell’Unione europea, l’unica ad essere eletta direttamente dai suoi cittadini. Insieme al Consiglio dell’Unione europea (e alla Commissione europea per quanto riguarda il diritto di iniziativa legislativa) il Parlamento europeo esercita la funzione legislativa all’interno dell’Unione europea.

Il Parlamento è la “prima istituzione” dell’UE (menzionata per prima nei trattati, avendo la precedenza cerimoniale su tutte le altre autorità a livello europeo), e condivide il potere legislativo e finanziario con il Consiglio (tranne che in alcune aree dove si applicano procedure legislative speciali). Ha altresì uguale controllo sul bilancio dell’UE. Infine la Commissione europea, l’organo esecutivo dell’UE, è responsabile davanti al Parlamento; in particolare, il Parlamento elegge il Presidente della Commissione e approva (o respinge) la nomina della Commissione nel suo insieme. Il Parlamento può anche forzare le dimissioni dell’intera Commissione attraverso l’adozione di una mozione di sfiducia. ….

Il Parlamento europeo esercita il potere legislativo e il potere di bilancio – condivisi con il Consiglio dell’Unione europea – e il potere di controllo democratico. ….

Il Parlamento e il Consiglio UE esercitano congiuntamente il potere legislativo e vengono spesso paragonati alle due camere di un sistema bicamerale.

Tra le differenze rispetto alle legislature nazionali è da notare però che né il Parlamento né il Consiglio hanno il potere di iniziativa legislativa, che è riservato esclusivamente alla Commissione europea, organo esecutivo dell’Unione. Pertanto, mentre il Parlamento può modificare o respingere una proposta di legge, quest’ultima deve essere prima elaborata dalla . ….

Con ogni nuovo trattato, i poteri del Parlamento, in termini del suo ruolo nelle procedure legislative dell’Unione, sono stati ampliati. Dall’entrata in vigore del Trattato di Lisbona la procedura cosiddetta di “codecisione” è divenuta procedura legislativa ordinaria che prevede un piano di parità tra il Parlamento e il Consiglio.» [Fonte]

Come si constata l’Europarlamento diverrà rapidamente il punto critico dell’Unione Europea.

Frau Merkel e Mr Macron hanno poco meno di due anni, quindi, per affrontare e trovare la soluzione finale al problema europeo. E lo faranno iniziando a strozzare la Polonia e l’Ungheria, tra ilsilenzio omertoso di quasi tutti.

Sempre che il convitato di pietra, Mr Trump, non svaluti il dollaro al punto tale da strozzare l’Eurozona.


Reuters. 2017-08-29. Merkel, Macron eye deeper eurozone integration after German election

BERLIN/PARIS (Reuters) – The leaders of Germany and France said on Tuesday they are ready to press ahead with deeper European integration, promising a tighter euro zone at the core of the European Union shaken by Britain’s vote to leave.

French President Emmanuel Macron, elected in May on a pro-EU platform, said he wanted to strengthen Europe’s single currency union in light of Brexit and pledged to announce proposals after Germany’s election on Sept. 24.

“This is a revamp that we need,” he told an annual assembly of French ambassadors in Paris, promising “concrete steps in around 10 areas” and adding that the EU could not afford to “get stuck in routine or technocratic quarrels”.

“Brexit should not take up all our energy,” he added as British and European Commission officials hold a third round of talks this week on Britain’s departure from the EU.

In Berlin, Chancellor Angela Merkel, who met Macron on Monday, endorsed the idea of a European Monetary Fund and said she could imagine creating a combined European finance and economy minister.

In power since 2005, the conservative chancellor, 63, is comfortably on course to win re-election, which would allow her to pursue deeper euro zone integration together with Macron.

Describing a European Monetary Fund as a “very good idea”, Merkel told reporters: “It could make us even more stable and allow us to show the world that we have all the mechanisms in our own portfolio of the euro zone to be able to react well to unexpected situations.”

Such a Fund would evolve out of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) – a rescue facility set up in 2012 to help defuse the euro zone crisis that threatened to tear apart the common-currency bloc at the heart of the EU.

Merkel, who wants to proof the currency union against future crises, said she did not rule out a French idea to have a common euro zone finance minister. “I could also imagine a (combined) economy and finance minister,” she said, adding that this could allow for better coordination on budget and economic policies.

Speaking for more than 1-1/2 hours, Merkel addressed a wide range of issues in good humour two days after her main election challenger, Social Democrat Martin Schulz, accused her of being aloof and out of touch with voters.

She also called for more European cooperation on migrant policy, pressed Turkey to release German citizens it has detained, and said she could not hold her tongue on the issue of the rule of law in Poland.

MERKEL REVIVED

Last year, Merkel suffered a drop in popularity after more than a million migrants fleeing war in the Middle East flooded into Germany. But with the influx since stemmed, she has bounced back with renewed conviction.

An opinion poll released on Tuesday showed her conservatives 13 points ahead of Schulz’s Social Democrats.

A day after Europe’s “big four” continental powers and three African states settled on a plan to tackle their migrant crisis, Merkel pressed her European peers to do still more. “Europe has not yet done its homework,” she said.

Turning to Turkey, Merkel ruled out an expansion of the EU’s customs union with Ankara.

Ties between Ankara and Berlin have become increasingly strained in the aftermath of last year’s failed military coup in Turkey as Turkish authorities sacked or suspended 150,000 people and detained more than 50,000, including other German nationals.

“I would like to have better ties with Turkey but we have to look at reality… This is a very complicated phase in our relations,” she said.

Merkel further said she could not remain mum about what EU leaders, activists and opposition politicians in Poland say is a lurch towards authoritarianism in Warsaw under the nationalist Law and Justice Party (PiS), which won election in 2015.

“…The rule of law in Poland – that’s a serious issue because the requirements for cooperation within the European Union are the principles of the rule of law,” she said.

“We cannot simply hold our tongues and not say anything for the sake of peace and quiet.” Merkel added that she would address the issue “in detail” with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker when he visits Germany on Wednesday.

PiS says the criticism, which culminated last week with Macron saying the Polish people deserved a better government, is unacceptable foreign meddling.

Pubblicato in: Giustizia, Sistemi Politici

Polonia. Referendum costituzionale. Un gran bel problema per tutti.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-08-31.

Warszawa. Palazzo Jabłonowski 001

«Andrzej Sebastian Duda (Polish pronounciation: [ˈandʐɛj ˈduda] (About this sound listen); born 16 May 1972) is a Polish politician who is the sixth and current President of Poland, holding the office since 6 August 2015. Before his tenure as President, Duda was a member of Polish Lower House (Sejm) from 2011 to 2014 and the European Parliament from 2014 to 2015. ….

Duda began his political career with the now-defunct Freedom Union Party in the early 2000s.

After the parliamentary elections in 2005, he began his collaboration with the Law and Justice Party (PIS).

From 2006 to 2007 Andrzej Duda was an undersecretary of state in the Ministry of Justice.

Then, from 2007 to 2008, Duda was a member of the Polish State Tribunal.

During the presidency of Lech Kaczyński, from 2008 to 2010, he was an undersecretary of state in the Chancellery of the President of the Republic of Poland. ….

In the first round of the 2015 presidential election, Duda came first, receiving 5,179,092 votes and thus 34.76% of valid votes.» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

Il presidente Duda proviene dalle fila del partito Legge e Giustizia (PiS), ma ha sfumature politiche differenti dall’attuale governo.

Negli ultimi tempi ha ripreso un tema a lui caro, e sicuramente di grande interesse, non solo per la Polonia. Lo riportiamo espresso in due punti.

In primo luogo, Mr Duda constata come la attuale costituzione sia stata scritta più di venti anni or sono e molte sue assunzioni non siano più riscontrabili nel paese. Una revisione critica sarebbe quindi necessaria, anche per evitare contenziosi, sia pure in buona fede.

«la costituzione definisca la Polonia come un’economia sociale di mercato, un sistema che secondo il presidente non esiste all’atto pratico, perché mai implementato».

*

«He expects people to suggest, among other topics, whether the charter should guarantee free education, health care and family bonuses and how far it should define the power of state agencies».

In secondo luogo, il presidente Duda solleva un problema riscontrabile nella maggior parte delle Costituzioni.

«molte imperfezioni del testo costituzionale al momento vigente nel paese»

*

«la non chiara distribuzione dei poteri fra le varie autorità statali»

*

Mr Duda affronta il grande problema della chiarezza espositiva del testo costituzionale. Il problema organizzativo e politico esiste, sicuramente, ma anche la sua espressione lessicologica e sintattica ha grande rilevanza pratica.

Problema questo non da poco.

Gli estensori di un testo costituzionale incontrano grandi difficoltà.

Il testo non può essere un trattato di scienza giuridica e molti termini sono usati senza essere inequivocabilmente definiti, perché usati nella corrente accezione dei termini, accezioni che sono però tempo varianti.

Inoltre il testo dovrebbe essere di indirizzo generale, blindando solo i concetti irrinunciabili e lasciando una ragionevole libertà interpretativa sul resto.

A quanto ci risulterebbe, questa sarebbe la prima volta che un custode della costituzione solleva un problema del genere, forse per troppo tempo sottovalutato.

Nota. La Unione Europea sta scatenando un lotta contro la Polonia, accusandola di non avere e non volere recepire i canoni di diritto europeo, ovvero quelli liberal democratici. Prepariamoci ad una lotta senza quartiere.

Macron: Polonia mette in dubbio solidarietà Ue e stato di diritto


McClatchy Dc Bureau. 2017-08-26. Polish president seeks proposals for new constitution

WARSAW, Poland. Poland’s president on Friday invited his compatriots to make suggestions for a new constitution to replace one that took effect 20 years ago.

President Andrzej Duda is calling on citizens to send their ideas to his office and to share them with local authorities over the next year with the aim of holding a referendum in November 2018 on possible changes.

The proposals are to be discussed in regional meetings with social groups during the coming year and will be the basis for about 10 questions asked in the referendum.

Duda first floated the idea in May, apparently taking the governing party by surprise. It was seen as an effort to demonstrate his independence from ruling party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski, Poland’s most influential politician.

In a speech Friday in Gdansk, Duda said the existing constitution — which took effect seven years after democracy was restored in Poland — was “interim,” had shortcomings and wasn’t fit for a mature democracy.

“The new constitution should take us forward into the future,” Duda said.

He expects people to suggest, among other topics, whether the charter should guarantee free education, health care and family bonuses and how far it should define the power of state agencies.

The current constitution took effect under a left-wing government, which taints it in the eyes of right-wing critics.


Agenzia Nova. 2017-08-26. Polonia: presidente Duda, necessario considerare adozione nuovo testo costituzionale.

L’attuale costituzione polacca è da considerare come di transizione e deve essere sostituita da una nuova. Lo ha affermato oggi il presidente polacco Andrzej Duda, sottolineando le molte imperfezioni del testo costituzionale al momento vigente nel paese. Duda ha parlato nel corso di un convegno organizzato dal sindacato Solidarnosc a Danzica. Secondo il presidente polacco, l’attuale costituzione ha diverse pecche, come la non chiara distribuzione dei poteri fra le varie autorità statali. Fra gli esempi citati da Duda, il fatto che la costituzione definisca la Polonia come un’economia sociale di mercato, un sistema che secondo il presidente non esiste all’atto pratico, perché mai implementato. “Ci sono diversi ambiti in cui sarebbe opportuno avere maggiore precisione”, ha affermato Duda.

Nei mesi scorsi, il capo dello Stato polacco ha annunciato che nel 2018 si svolgerà un referendum costituzionale nel paese. “I cittadini polacchi hanno il diritto di esprimersi per decidere se la Costituzione, che è in vigore da venti anni, dovrebbe essere cambiata”, ha detto Duda durante le commemorazioni per la Giornata della Costituzione a Varsavia. “È giunto il momento di avviare un serio dibattito costituzionale, non solo fra i rappresentanti politici ma con l’intera nazione”. Duda ha aggiunto che dovrebbero essere gli stessi polacchi a decidere sulle direzioni di sviluppo del paese. “Quali diritti civili, quali libertà devono essere evidenziate di più”, ha detto il capo dello stato.

La Polonia “dovrebbe essere un paese in cui tutti sono assolutamente uguali davanti alla legge”, ha detto Duda. Inoltre, ha proseguito il capo dello Stato, il paese dovrebbe essere un luogo in cui “non esistono privilegi infondati, dove non esistono caste migliori di cittadini, dove tutti i cittadini sono uniti. È un compito che, a mio avviso, come presidente, deve essere compiuto”. Duda ha aggiunto che una scelta del genere dovrebbe essere presa attraverso un voto pubblico. “Voglio un referendum costituzionale l’anno prossimo, quando si festeggerà il centenario dell’indipendenza”, ha detto Duda.


The Warsaw Voice. 2017-08-26. Constitutional referendum in 2018?

Poland’s President Andrzej Duda plans to use his right to announce a constitutional referendum, having secured the Senate’s approval, but the process will take a while, he told the weekly W Sieci.

Duda mentioned November 11, 2018, the 100th anniversary of regaining independence by Poland, as “one of the potential dates”.

The referendum would be preceded by a broad debate and could contain several, maybe between 10 and 20 questions, the answers to which would determine the course of works on the new constitution.

The President does not rule out a 2-day referendum.

According to Duda’s words, the question on whether Poland should adopt euro could also be included in the referendum.
Poland’s ruling party Law and Justice (PiS) will support President’s motion for a referendum on what changes to the constitution should be made, Internal Affairs Minister Mariusz Blaszczak told Radio Zet.


The Warsaw Voice. 2017-08-26. Duda seeks support.

Polish President Andrzej Duda is seeking support for his proposal of a constitutional referendum outside ruling party Law and Justice (PiS), the daily Dziennik Gazeta Prawna writes.

Duda will attend on Friday a conference held by trade union Solidarnosc concerning a constitutional draft prepared by the trade union years ago, presidential ministrer Pawel Mucha says.

The president’s participation in the conference will mark an actual launch of the debate on the possible questions for the referendum, while the reaction of the ruling party will be a benchmark of any potential changes in its stance on the issue.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Germania, Turkia e Visegrad. Rischio di disfacimento della Nato.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-07-24.

Das Brandenburger Tor in Berlin

Nel corso degli ultimi tre lustri i rapporti turko-germanici si sono deteriorati in modo così consistente da generare una minaccia non solo per questi due stati, ma anche per tutta la corolla della alleanze alle quali fanno parte: questa diatriba sta assumendo nel tempo connotazioni internazionali.

Riassumiamo a seguito i soli punti di interesse nel presente articolo, tralasciando alcuni anche di grande importanza ma irrilevanti in questa sede.

– La Turkia soffre fin dalla sua nascita del problema kurdo. Questa etnia, composta da circa trenta milioni di persone, comprendono il 18.3% della popolazione in Turchia, il 15-20% in Iraq, il 6% circa in Siria. In maggioranza sono islamici sunniti, ma una parte non irrilevante è yazidita, alevita e, in quota molto minore, cristiani. Negli stati in cui attualmente vivono, i kurdi vorrebbero poter ambire ad una qualche forma di indipendenza: alcune componenti vorrebbero la piena indipendenza, altre si accontenterebbero di statuti speciali. Da lungo tempo i kurdi che abitano in Turkia svolgono azioni di guerriglia e di attentati terroristici, in questo facilitato dal trovarsi sul confine meridionale turko a ridosso di Siria ed Iraq, fatto questo che pone queste due ultime nazioni all’attenzione strategica dei turki.

– La guerra in Iraq prima, quella civile in Siria dopo hanno destabilizzato la situazione in modo severo. Da una parte ha quasi costretto la Turkia a continui interventi militari camuffati da operazioni umanitarie per tutelare i confini meridionali, dall’altra per cercare di neutralizzare l’ondata di profughi che fuggivano dai teatri bellici, spesso vedendo la Turkia solo come terra di passaggio verso l’Europa. Con l’acuirsi della crisi migratoria, la Turkia ha usato in modo molto disinvolto i migranti come arma ritorsione contro l’Unione Europea, dapprima alimentando la via balcanica, quindi inondando di profughi la Grecia.

– Il giro di boa è avvenuto in occasione del tentativo di colpo di stato in Turkia. L’Occidente ha accusato Mr Erdogan di aver usato la mano troppo forte nello ristabilire la situazione. La Germania, per bocca della sua Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel ha preso le posizioni più dure e nette, e si è fatta paladina di ciò che i tedeschi di oggi ritengono essere “diritti fondamentali”. Al momento lo scontro su questo argomento ha assunto toni aspri, con rispettive minacce ed azioni talora poco chiare.

– Questa concezione ha assunto anche aspetti farseschi e grotteschi. In occasione dei contati con l’Arabia Saudita la Bundeskanzlerin ha posto l’osservanza dei suoi valori come conditio sine qua non per continuare a vendere armi all’Arabia Saudita. La risposta è stata tranchant.

«We will not cause any more problems for the German government with new requests for weapons»

Frau Merkel è ritornata a casa con le pive nel sacco. Questo è uno segni di quanto l’ideologia le sia radicata nella mente. Già: come giustamente hanno detto gli arabi, il problema è di Frau Merkel, non degli altri.

– I tedeschi non hanno digerito per nulla che gli oltre tre milioni di turki viventi in Germania fossero in gran parte schierati per Erdogan: avrebbero ben gradito il loro sostegno. E tre milioni di voti hanno il loro peso, specie poi in clima pre elettorale. Non si capacitano che questi turki non si siano ancora “integrati”. Concetto invero molto strano: una cosa è integrarsi nella nazione tedesca ed una totalmente differente personificarsi nei desiderata del cancelliere pro tempore.

– C’è poi un feroce contenzioso sui gasdotti. I tedeschi hanno privilegiato in Nord Stream 2 baltico a discapito del South Stream che avrebbe dovuto traversare la Turkia. Bega tuttora a livello incandescente.

– La bega turko-tedesca è diventata rapidamente un severo problema internazionale. Frau Merkel ed Unione Europea, sostengono in pratica di non voler trattare né avere rapporti con stati che, a loro dire, non rispettano ciò che loro ritengono essere “diritti umani” ed i loro “principi”, ma che gli altri non condividono per nulla. In questa maniera, la bega turko-tedesca va a sommarsi a quelle analoghe che i tedeschi e l’Unione Europea stanno imbastendo con la Polonia e l’Ungheria.

– Da ultimo solo per esposizione, ma primo come gravità, c’è il problema della Nato, cui Turkia, Polonia ed Ungheria appartengono a pieno diritto. La Turkia, che poi gestisce i Dardanelli, forma lo scacchiere meridionale e gli stati del Visegrad quello orientale.

Sarebbe troppo conflittuale litigarsi su tutto e poi sperare di essere solleciti nella comune difesa. Turki, polacchi ed ungheresi non riescono a trovare un buon motivo per cui dover morire per difendere la Germania e l’Europa occidentale. Loro ospitano le basi Nato avanzate ed anche un cospicuo arsenale atomico, deterrente. Se questa bega continuasse sine die, alla fine la Germania si ritroverebbe ad essere lei sulla linea di confine, situazione davvero scomoda per chiunque.

Si faccia molta attenzione. Una disintegrazione della Nato non è un problema interna dei paesi afferenti l’Alleanza: è un problema politico e militare mondiale. Nessuno ne uscirebbe indenne.

* * * * * * *

NATO urges Turkey, Germany to settle air base row

German lawmakers postpone visit to Konya NATO base in Turkey

NATO head Stoltenberg advises Germany and Turkey to resolve issues

Germany to Withdraw Forces From Incirlik Base in Turkey

NATO chief mediates talks with senior German, Turkish diplomats

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I problemi sono davvero molto complessi e, a nostro personale modo di vedere, tutte le forme di irrigidimento non concorrono a cercare di risolverli.


Reuters. 2017-07-22. ‘You belong here,’ Gabriel tells Germany’s Turks

BERLIN (Reuters) – Germany will stand by the three million people with Turkish roots living there, its foreign minister said, offering assurances that they were not Berlin’s targets in a rapidly escalating political row with Ankara.

In an open letter published on Saturday in mass-circulation daily Bild, Sigmar Gabriel said Germany had to look after its own but had no quarrel with Turkish people in either country.

“We must protect our citizens,” he wrote. “However difficult the political relations between Germany and Turkey, one thing is clear: you, people of Turkish roots in Germany belong here with us, whether you have a German passport or not.”

Gabriel’s intervention came after his cabinet colleague, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, compared Turkey’s actions in detaining six human rights activists, including a German, to the authoritarian former communist East Germany.

“We have always striven for good relations with Turkey, because we know that good relations are important for you (German Turks),” Gabriel added in the letter, which was also published in Turkish.

Officials in Germany are increasingly concerned at what they say is large-scale covert activity by Ankara’s security services among Germany’s vast Turkish diaspora.

On Friday, Germany’s head of domestic intelligence said Turkish agencies were carrying out influence operations in Germany, including targeting opponents of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan living in the country.

Bilateral tensions were already high prior to the activists’ arrests after recriminations during a referendum in April on extending Erdogan’s powers and a pullout of German troops from a Turkish air base that began this month.

The arrests were part of a broader crackdown across Turkish society since a failed coup last year.


Reuters. 2017-07-21.   Berlin reviews Turkish arms requests as crisis deepens

ANKARA/BERLIN (Reuters) – Germany said on Friday it was reviewing applications for arms projects from Turkey, accusing its NATO ally of ramping up covert operations as an attempt by a Turkish minister to calm a deepening bilateral crisis fell flat.

While one minister in Berlin compared Ankara’s behavior over the detention of six rights activists to the authoritarian former communist East Germany, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan told Germany to “pull itself together”.

Bilateral tensions were already high after bitter recriminations during a referendum in April on extending Erdogan’s powers and a pullout of German troops from a Turkish air base that began this month.

They rose further after Turkey detained the activists, including a German national, in custody two weeks ago.

Turkey’s economy minister sought to calm matters but Erdogan, renewing earlier criticism, accused Berlin of trying to scare German companies away from investing in Turkey.

Germany, home to three million people with Turkish roots, said it would review Turkish applications for arms projects. “We’re checking all applications,” an Economy Ministry spokeswoman said.

That means the Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (Bafa) probably cannot issue new export approvals, but projects already agreed will not be affected initially.

In 2016, the German government exported armaments worth 83.9 million euros to Turkey. In the first four months of 2017, business worth 22 million euros was approved, for navy deliveries and joint projects with other NATO partners.

Germany has warned Germans traveling to Turkey that they do so at their own risk, and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble was quoted on Friday as comparing Turkey with the former communist East German state – the German Democratic Republic (GDR).

“Turkey now makes arbitrary arrests and no longer sticks to minimum consular standards. That reminds me of how it was in the GDR,” he told the mass-circulation Bild newspaper.

Schaeuble said those who traveled to the former Communist East before it collapsed in 1990 were aware that “if something happens to you, no one can help you”.

German officials say they have not had full consular access to arrested German activist Peter Steudtner, who was accused of terrorism – an allegation Berlin has dismissed as absurd. Another German citizen was arrested on charges of links to terrorism earlier this year.

Turkish Secret Services

Germany’s domestic security chief said Turkey had been carrying out ever more covert operations in Germany, especially since a failed coup attempt against Erdogan last July.

“Since the coup attempt and domestic political changes there, we no longer see Turkey’s intelligence service purely as a partner but also as an opponent,” BfV chief Hans-Georg Maassen said.

Covert activities included influence operations targeting Germany-based Turks, with attempts to intimidate opponents of Erdogan.

In March, German authorities barred Turkish ministers from speaking at mass rallies of expatriates backing the president’s referendum campaign. He responded by accusing Berlin of “fascist actions”.

The activist arrests were part of a broader crackdown across Turkish society since last year’s failed coup. More than 150,000 people have been sacked or suspended from jobs in Turkey’s civil service, military and private sector and more than 50,000 have been jailed.

Rights groups and some Western governments say Erdogan is using the crackdown as a pretext to quash dissent. The Turkish government says the measures are necessary given the gravity of the security threat it faces.

They may have extended to German companies.

A security source told Reuters Turkey had sent German authorities a list of over 680 firms it suspected of supporting terrorism.

Turkey’s Economy Minister Nihat Zeybekci told Reuters Germany’s behavior in cautioning its citizens over travel to Turkey was “unfortunate”, but he did not see harm accruing to tourism.

So far this year, bookings from Germany have accounted for some 10 percent of Turkey’s tourists.

Last year, the number of foreign visitors to Turkey fell 30 percent amid bombings by Kurdish and Islamist militants, the lowest in nine years. The travel sector contributes about $30 billion to the economy in a normal year.

Commercial links are close.

Germany was Turkey’s top export destination in 2016, buying $14 billion worth of Turkish goods, and the second biggest source of Turkish imports, at $21.5 billion.

German news broadcaster n-tv said it would no longer run adverts that aimed to attract investment in Turkey.


Reuters. 2017-07-21. Turkey has over 680 German firms on terrorism black list: security source

BERLIN (Reuters) – Turkey has provided German authorities with a list of over 680 German firms it suspects of supporting terrorism, a German security source said on Friday, ten times the number initially reported by German media.

Die Zeit newspaper had reported on Wednesday that the list included large German companies such as Daimler (DAIGn.DE) and BASF AG (BASFn.DE).

But Turkey’s deputy prime minister, Mehmet Simsek, said on Twitter on Thursday that the report was “completely false.”


Reuters. 2017-07-20. Germany steps up economic pressure on Turkey in rights row

BERLIN (Reuters) – Germany told its citizens on Thursday to exercise caution if traveling to Turkey and threatened measures that could hinder German investment there, in a sign of growing impatience with a NATO ally after the detention of rights activists.

The mass-selling daily Bild newspaper, citing government sources, also reported that Berlin was putting arms projects with Ankara on hold.

Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel highlighted alarm at what Berlin sees as the growing unpredictability of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan. “Everyone can be affected. The most absurd things are possible,” he said in advice to travelers.

Gabriel broke off his holiday to deal with the crisis after Turkey arrested six human rights activists including German national Peter Steudtner on accusations of terrorism, the latest in a series of diplomatic rows.

Germany, Turkey’s chief export partner, called the allegations absurd.

“We need our policies towards Turkey to go in a new direction…we can’t continue as we have done,” Gabriel told reporters in unusually direct language touching on sensitive commercial matters including corporate investment guarantees.

The Turkish foreign ministry said it would make the “necessary response” to comments it described as one-sided.

Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu later accused Germany of harboring members of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has fought an insurgency in southeast Turkey since 1984, and the network of U.S.-based cleric Fethullah Gulen that Ankara blames for a failed coup last July.

“As a country providing shelter to PKK and FETO terrorists in its own territory, statements by Germany are just double standards and unacceptable,” Cavusoglu said on Twitter.

Gulen has denied involvement in the coup attempt.

Erdogan says a crackdown, in which roughly 50,000 people have been detained and 150,000 sacked or suspended from the judiciary and journalism to academia, was essential after the failed coup. Domestic and foreign critics accuse him of using a state of emergency as cover to root out opposition.

Juergen Hardt, a senior member of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative party, said the EU candidate country had now “left the path to Europe”. “No one invests in a country…in which the judiciary has been degraded to be a helper of the ruling AKP party,” he said.

Many companies have also been seized since the coup attempt on allegations of links to terrorism.

“Think Rationally”

The foreign ministry in Ankara said Turkey would not make concessions on its judicial independence and struggle against terrorism “for financial matters such as loans, funds or the (European) Customs Union”.

Cavusoglu criticized Gabriel’s remarks, saying threats and blackmail would find no answers in Turkey, and that Germany and Turkey needed to focus on their long-term mutual goals instead.

“We don’t see such threats against Turkey as worthy of a serious country,” Cavusoglu told reporters in Cyprus.

Erdogan’s spokesman Ibrahim Kalin suggested Gabriel’s remarks were intended to win votes at national elections in two months. “They need to rid themselves of this abdication of reason and think rationally.”

Gabriel’s warnings to private as well as business travelers could deal a significant blow to the tourism industry. So far this year, bookings from Germany have accounted for some 10 percent of Turkey’s tourists.

In its new guidance, the foreign ministry said: “People who are traveling to Turkey… are urged to exercise increased caution, and should register with German consulates and the embassy, even for shorter visits.”

Last year, the number of foreign visitors to Turkey fell to 25.4 million amid a spate of bombings by Kurdish and Islamist militants, the lowest in nine years. The travel sector contributes about $30 billion to the economy in a normal year.

Erdogan’s spokesman rejected the suggestion that Germans traveling to Turkey faced any danger. “It is also not acceptable to create doubts in the minds of German investors in Turkey,” Kalin said.

In comments that threatened broader economic consequences, Gabriel said he could not advise companies to invest in a country without legal certainty where “even completely innocent companies are judged as being close to terrorists”.

“I can’t see how we as the German government can continue to guarantee corporate investments in Turkey if there is the threat of arbitrary expropriation for political reasons.”

On Wednesday, newspaper Die Zeit said Turkish authorities had several weeks ago handed Berlin a list of 68 German companies they accused of having links to Gulen.

They included chemicals giant BASF (BASFn.DE), which confirmed it was on a list that had been passed to it by German police, but declined to comment on the allegations.

Turkish deputy prime minister Mehmet Simsek said on Thursday the reports were untrue.

Germany was Turkey’s top export destination in 2016, buying $14 billion worth of Turkish goods. It was also the second biggest source of Turkish imports, at $21.5 billion. Only China, at $25.4 billion, exported more to Turkey.

Pubblicato in: Criminalità Organizzata, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Bbc e Reuters. Polonia. Una fake News degna del dr. Gobbels.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-07-16.

2017-07-16__Eurocrati croppedimage530350-great

Il sogno dominatore e prevaricatore degli eurocrati.


Nei sistemi politici a regime democratico è costumanza indire elezioni, attualmente a suffragio universale: chi ottenga la maggioranza governa e chi resta all’opposizione svolge il suo ruolo nei limiti dettati dalla legge.

Dalle elezioni del 27 ottobre 2015 è emerso il seguente risultato elettorale:

2017-07-16__Polonia__Governo__2015

Come si constata, gli Elettori hanno conferito al partito Diritto e Giustizia 253 / 460 deputati e 61 / 100 senatori: la maggioranza assoluta sia in Parlamento sia in Senato. La Sinistra Unita ha perso 67 deputati e non è riuscita a fare eleggere nemmeno un deputato. E le diverse ogn operanti in Polonia anche esse non sono riuscite a far eleggere un deputato che fosse uno: elettoralmente non valgono nulla. Contano solo nell’immaginario dei giornalisti liberal europei. Non si confondano i deliri con la realtà dei fatti.

Queste elezioni non si sono svolte sotto il patrocinio del russo invasore né del tedesco invasore: erano libere elezioni svoltesi in uno stato sovrano. Come si deve accettare l’elezione di Mr Macron così si deve accettare quella di Mrs Beata Szydło. Sempre sotto la pregiudiziale di essere democratici e non sostenitori di dittature.

Sempre in un sistema democratico, chiunque è libero di presentarsi alle elezioni: sta poi a lui il raccogliere i consensi per farsi eleggere.

In questa ottica, le organizzazioni non governative sarebbero liberissime di presentarsi alle elezioni, ed infatti qualche tentativo lo hanno fatto: solo il parlamento è sovrano. Senza parlamentari, contano meno di nulla e, di norma, quanti ne diano voce altro non propongono che soluzioni dittatoriali, ossia di imposizione dell’opinione di pochi alla maggioranza. Che siano libere di esprimere dissenso, nei limiti della legge, è una cosa del tutto differente dal fatto che dettino legge.

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«Poland’s parliament has approved a bill to give MPs and the justice minister the power to appoint judges without consulting judicial circles»

*

«Polish senators backed the legislation in a vote in the early hours of Saturday morning.»

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«We want to end corporatism and introduce the oxygen of democracy there. Because Poland is a democracy based on the rule of law »

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«A separate bill was also presented in parliament this week, which would allow the justice minister to get rid of all of Poland’s Supreme Court judges and appoint new ones»

* * * *

La stampa internazionale liberal è insorta.

«Grzegorz Schetyna, who leads the opposition Civic Platform party, denounced the tabling of the bill as an “announcement of a coup”, the AFP news agency reports»

*

«the Council of Europe’s Human Rights Commissioner, Nils Muiznieks, said the reforms were “a major setback for judicial independence”»

*

«Manfred Weber, the leader of the European Parliament’s largest grouping, the EPP, said “Law and Justice is putting an end to the rule of law and leaving the European community of values”»

*

Parole queste ben pesanti.

Parole che l’articolista presenta come se fossero l’oracolo di Delfi: vanno dal “judicial independence” fin al “announcement of a coup“.

Un colpo di stato. Ma siamo diventati tutti matti?

Sono, ripetiamo, parole ben pesanti.

Considerazioni.

Esempio numero uno: gli Stati Uniti di America.

«I giudici della Corte suprema sono nominati a vita; hanno tuttavia la facoltà di ritirarsi quando non si ritengono più in grado di esercitare adeguatamente il proprio mandato, ad esempio per malattia o per il raggiungimento di un’età troppo avanzata. Quando un seggio diviene vacante, il presidente degli Stati Uniti provvede alla nomina del giudice con il consenso del Senato. ….

la Costituzione degli Stati Uniti d’America non prevede alcun criterio di ripartizione tra i membri» [Fonte]

Esempio numero due: la Germania.

«La Corte di Cassazione Federale (in tedesco Bundesgerichtshof, abbr. BGH) è la corte di ultima istanza nel sistema della giustizia ordinaria (ordentliche Gerichtsbarkeit) in Germania. La sua competenza comprende i casi di diritto penale e diritto civile. Ha sede a Karlsruhe e Lipsia.

In Germania non esiste un organo di autogoverno della magistratura affine al CSM italiano. La nomina dei magistrati addetti ai tribunali federali incombe così al Ministro federale competente in materia (Giustizia, Lavoro, Finanze, ecc.).

I provvedimenti disciplinari contro giudici e procuratori federali possono essere assunti solo nel caso in cui, a seguito di una richiesta del Bundestag in tal senso, il Tribunale costituzionale abbia accertato un comportamento doloso del singolo magistrato, con decisione presa da almeno i 2/3 dei suoi componenti.» [Fonte]

Esempio numero tre: la Francia.

«La Costituzione francese del 1958 della V Repubblica è laconica in merito al potere giudiziario, cui riserva soltanto tre articoli, rinviando a una legge organica in materia: riserva (art. 66) soltanto alla prima la garanzia dell’indipendenza e dell’inamovibilità, mentre sottopone la magistratura inquirente alla dipendenza gerachica dal potere esecutivo. ….

La Loi Perben II del 1º febbraio 2010 sottopone esplicitamente la funzione inquirente al controllo del Ministero della Giustizia, ed è stata dichiarata legittima dal Consiglio costituzionale sia rispetto agli articoli della Carta che al principio della separazione dei poteri.» [Fonte]

Esempio numero quattro: il Regno Unito.

«La Corte suprema del Regno Unito (in inglese Supreme Court of the United Kingdom), è stata istituita dal Constitutional Reform Act 2005 e ha assunto dal 1º ottobre 2009 le funzioni giudiziarie in materia di devoluzione, in sostituzione del Comitato d’Appello della Camera dei Lord (Appellate Committee della House of Lords). ….

 L’articolo 25 dispone che possono esser nominati giudici coloro i quali abbiano svolto un ruolo analogo in una della Alte corti del Regno per almeno due anni e chi abbia svolto la professione di avvocato per almeno 15 anni. Le novità riguardano la procedura di nomina che riguarderanno i giudici, il presidente e il vicepresidente della corte. ….

Il nuovo metodo prevede la nomina regia e la presentazione dei nomi alla regina da parte del primo ministro …. la selezione dei giudici della Corte suprema venga effettuata da una commissione indipendente ….  la procedura successiva all’individuazione del nome da parte della commissione. Il nome deve essere presentato al Lord Chancellor il quale, dopo aver consultato tutte le persone precedentemente consultate dalla commissione, può accettarlo, rifiutarlo o chiedere alla Commissione di ‘riconsiderarlo’» [Fonte]

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* * * * * * *

Il principio della divisione dei poteri, per esempio tra governo e magistratura, è una delle tante utopie reliquate dall’illuminismo ai suoi discepoli liberals. È un’utopia perché semplicemente impossibile da attuarsi.

Alla fine, sia i giudici dovrebbero fare osservare le leggi dello stato sia qualcuno dovrà ben nominarli.

Al primo punto i liberals hanno ovviato inventandosi il concetto che i magistrati abbiano l’arbitrio “interpretare” le leggi ed anche la Carta Costituzionale: in parole poverissime, sentenziano ciò che più faccia comodo a loro ed a quanti essi rappresentino, la si chiami loggia oppure lobby, il risultato è identico.

Al secondo punto nessuno può dare risposta.

La costituzione di un Csm che nomini i giudici porterebbe inevitabilmente alla generazione di una corporazione di magistrati, non vidimati dal voto popolare. Se è vero, per esempio, che in Italia il Csm sia stato costituito con l’art. 4 della legge 511 del 1907. è altrettanto vero che il suo volto odierno è stato configurato dall’allora capo del Governo italiano Benito Mussolini. Così come è, nell’essenza, il Csm è un classico strumento fascista, adottato e magnificato quando tutti i giudici fossero stati fascisti. Sembrerebbe che i liberals europei non siano forti negli studi storici, e che ne traggano ogni vantaggio.

Alla fine, qualcuno deve bene nominare i giudici, e la figura più logica sarebbe quella delle forze politiche elette in parlamento. Non a caso questa è la strada presa dagli Stati Uniti di America, dalla Germania, dalla Francia e dal Regno Unito.

Sarà ben difficile affermare che questi quattro grandi stati occidentali siano etichettate come dittature liberticide.

Ma i giornalisti della Bbc e di Reuters affermano, e con notevole sussiego, che se la Polonia si dotasse di una legislazione simile a quella amricana, tedesca, francese ed inglese, sarebbe un dittatura, arrivata al potere con un colpo di stato, illiberale e fortemente contraria ai valori europei.

Questa è malizia allo stato puro. Ciò che sarebbe lecito per Stati Uniti di America, Germania, Francia e Regno Unito, sarebbe invece una nefandezza per la Polonia.

Sicuramente alla fine il lupo sbranò l’agnello, non senza aver fatto prima una ridicola manfrina per cercarne una giustificazione. «Curinquitturbulentam fecisti mihi aquam bibenti

La Polonia ha saputo resistere a Stalin ed ad Hitler: difficilmente si farà spaventare da questi eurocrati.


Bbc. 2017-07-15. Poland MPs back controversial judiciary bill

Poland’s parliament has approved a bill to give MPs and the justice minister the power to appoint judges without consulting judicial circles.

Opposition parties and human rights groups say this would erode the independence of the judiciary.

The governing Law and Justice party says the reforms are needed because the judiciary is corrupt and serves only the elite.

The bill must now be signed by the president in order to become law.

A demonstration against the changes is scheduled to take place in the capital Warsaw on Sunday.

Since it came to power in 2015, the government of the conservative, populist Law and Justice party (PiS), has passed a series of controversial reforms, triggering mass protests.

Polish senators backed the legislation in a vote in the early hours of Saturday morning.

Earlier this week, Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro had argued that the changes were necessary because the current system of appointing judges was undemocratic.

“We want to end corporatism and introduce the oxygen of democracy there. Because Poland is a democracy based on the rule of law.

“This is not court-ocracy,” the minister said.

But opposition parties are concerned that the law would give parliament – dominated by PiS lawmakers – a greater say in appointing judges, violating the constitutional separation of powers.

The legislation will now go to President Andrzej Duda for signing. He has given no indication he plans to veto it.

A separate bill was also presented in parliament this week, which would allow the justice minister to get rid of all of Poland’s Supreme Court judges and appoint new ones.

This piece of legislation was not consulted beforehand and introduced to parliament in the middle of the night, reports the BBC’s Adam Easton in Warsaw.

Under the PiS government, the justice minister already wields considerable power over the prosecution service in his role as prosecutor general because he can influence prosecutors to launch investigations, our correspondent says.

Grzegorz Schetyna, who leads the opposition Civic Platform party, denounced the tabling of the bill as an “announcement of a coup”, the AFP news agency reports.

Earlier this week, the Council of Europe’s Human Rights Commissioner, Nils Muiznieks, said the reforms were “a major setback for judicial independence”.

Meanwhile, Manfred Weber, the leader of the European Parliament’s largest grouping, the EPP, said “Law and Justice is putting an end to the rule of law and leaving the European community of values”.


Reuters. 2017-07-13. Polish ruling PiS lawmakers submit bill to replace judges, opposition protests

WARSAW (Reuters) – Several lawmakers from Poland’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party have submitted a draft bill that would replace all Supreme Court judges except those chosen by the justice minister, drawing protests from the opposition.

The draft bill marks the latest move by the right-wing PiS to increase the influence of elected bodies and the government over the process of appointing judges, which critics and the opposition say violates the constitutional separation of powers.

Since winning the 2015 election, the PiS has overhauled the constitutional court. The European Commission has accused the government in Warsaw of undermining democratic checks and balances, charges PiS denies.

In contrast, U.S. President Donald Trump praised Poland during a visit to Warsaw last week, saying Poles valued individual freedom and sovereignty.

With unemployment at a record low and the economy growing robustly, an opinion poll this week showed support for PiS rose by 4 percentage points to 36 percent compared to a month ago.

“One day after this law enters into force, Supreme Court judges appointed in line with the hitherto existing regulations are retired, except for judges chosen by the justice minister,” the draft bill submitted on Wednesday to parliament reads.

According to Poland’s 1997 constitution, the Supreme Court is tasked with overseeing the activity of courts of general jurisdiction and military courts with respect to their passing of verdicts. It also states that the Supreme Court decides if parliamentary elections are valid.

“This is how dictatorship starts,” said Borys Budka, a lawmaker from the largest opposition party Civic Platform (PO).

Lech Walesa, the hero of the Solidarity movement that shook communist rule in the 1980s, told private broadcaster TVN24 that the bill was “very dangerous, very stupid”.

PiS says the party has a democratic mandate to make the judiciary more efficient and accountable to the public.

Despite calls from some judges and rights activists, the opposition has been unable to marshal any real public protest against the ruling party’s moves, reflecting Poles’ frustration with a system in which even simple court cases can last years.

Also on Wednesday, PiS passed a bill to give parliament a greater say in appointing district and appellate judges by giving lawmakers the right to choose the majority of members to the National Council of the Judiciary (KRS). [L8N1K353Z]

KRS spokesman Waldemar Zurek told state news agency PAP the moves by PiS lawmakers and the government were a “creeping attack” on the judiciary.

PiS lawmakers have previously responded to criticism saying that in several EU countries the executive and legislative powers have a major say in appointing judges, citing the example of Germany where parliament and representatives of states choose members of the constitutional court.

The PiS party has brought the prosecutor’s office and state media under direct government control. The new bill would further increase the powers of the justice minister, who would also oversee prosecutors.

Pubblicato in: Geopolitica Mondiale, Senza categoria, Trump, Unione Europea

Trump visiterà la Polonia il sei luglio.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-06-14.

Poland- Warsaw. 001. jpg

La Polonia è uno stato più che millenario, riunitosi sotto la dinastia Piast, essendo re Mieszko. L’attuale bandiera è quella scelta nel 966 alla Rocca di Gniezno. Nel 1241 fu occupata dai Mongoli dell’Orda d’Oro: duro periodo di servaggio. Ma risorse, conquistandosi la libertà con tanto, ma tanto sudore e sangue, e sotto la Dinastia Jagellone divenne potenza continentale eruropea.

Nessuno potrà mai dimenticare la battaglia di Kahlenberg (Monte Calvo) del 12-13 settembre 1683: quarantaseimila polacchi combatterono contro 160,00 turki, li sbaragliarono e liberarono Vienna dal secondo assedio, salvando così l’Europa e la Cristianità. Re Jan Sobieski si conquistò il titolo di “Fondatore dell’Europa”.

Nel 1795 la Polonia scomparse dalle carte geografiche, ripartita tra Russia, Prussia ed Austria.

Ma nel 1918 lo stato Polacco fu nuovamente costituito. Venti anni di vita travagliata, e poi settanta anni di dominio comunista.

*

Difficile dire se altri popoli avrebbero avuto la forza e la coerenza di risorgere dopo triboli di codesta portata. Un popolo abbarbicato attorno alla propria religione ed alla propria tradizione religiosa, storica, culturale, militare e politica.

Gente che non si è spaventata di fronte ad un Hitler oppure ad uno Stalin, non si lascia certo intimorire da un Mr Macron oppure da una Frau Merkel.

* * * * * * *

«Trump’s visit offers the promise of raising the standing of the government of Prime Minister Beata Szydlo as it finds itself increasingly marginalized within the European Union over a refusal to resettle refugees and migrants and over judicial changes that the EU says weaken the rule of law»

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«The White House said Friday that Trump will visit Poland on July 6 before he joins the Group of 20 summit in Hamburg, Germany»

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«In Warsaw he can expect a much warmer reception than he will find the following day in Germany, with many world leaders dismayed by his decision to pull the United States out of the Paris climate deal»

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«Poland’s conservative and nationalistic ruling party, Law and Justice, shares many of Trump’s beliefs, including opposition to Muslim immigrants, support for burning coal and skepticism of international bodies, including the EU, which they see eroding the sovereignty of nation states»

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«Like Trump, Polish leaders speak of restoring national greatness»

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* * * * * * * *

«we Europeans must really take our fate into our own hands» [Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel – NYT]

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«Make our planet great again» [Emmanuel Macron – Cnn]

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«the Russian leader suggested that the Europeans had “bosses” in Washington whom they couldn’t disobey — not the right note to strike as Europe seeks to bolster its global role.» [Mr Putin – Bloomberg]

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«Bisogna smetterla di parlare degli Stati Uniti d’Europa,  la gente non li vuole» [JC Juncker]

*

Questo è un consistente progresso diplomatico polacco. Sarà interessante vedere le contromosse dell’Unione Europea. Una è di oggi.

Migranti: dalla Ue via a sanzioni per Ungheria, Polonia e Repubblica Ceca

«La Commissione europea ha deciso di avviare la procedura di infrazione per Polonia, Ungheria e Repubblica Ceca per i mancati ricollocamenti dei profughi sbarcati sulle coste italiane e greche e ospitati nei centri di prima accoglienza dei due Paesi. Ad annunciare i provvedimenti è stato il commissario Ue agli affari interni, Dimitris Avramopoulos, nel presentare la relazione di giugno sullo stato di attuazione dell’Agenda europea sulla migrazione e facendo il punto sulla «relocation», che sostanzialmente significa la ripartizione tra tutti e 28 i Paesi dell’Unione dei migranti entrati nella Ue attraverso le frontiere esterne»


Bloomberg. 2017-06-12. Poland Hails Upcoming Trump Visit as a ‘Huge Success’

Warsaw, Poland (AP) — Polish officials are hailing an upcoming visit by Donald Trump, with Poland’s defense minister calling it a “huge success” for the government and another official celebrating the unexpectedness of a U.S. president stopping in Warsaw before Paris, London or Berlin.

Trump’s visit offers the promise of raising the standing of the government of Prime Minister Beata Szydlo as it finds itself increasingly marginalized within the European Union over a refusal to resettle refugees and migrants and over judicial changes that the EU says weaken the rule of law.

The White House said Friday that Trump will visit Poland on July 6 before he joins the Group of 20 summit in Hamburg, Germany. It said the visit to Poland — where the U.S. recently deployed hundreds of troops — is meant to reaffirm Washington’s “steadfast commitment to one of our closest European allies.”

Defense Minister Antoni Macierewicz said late Sunday that the upcoming visit is a “huge success of Polish diplomacy” and an “enormous event showing how much Poland’s place in geopolitics and world politics has changed” since his party, Law and Justice, took power in 2015.

Krzysztof Szczerski, chief of staff to President Andrzej Duda, said Polish officials had worked “many months” to persuade Trump to visit.

“At first … it seemed impossible that we would be able to convince the U.S. president that he should visit Poland before the biggest European countries,” Szczerski told the wPolityce web portal Sunday.

The visit will be part of Trump’s second international foray as president, after a tour last month of the Middle East and Europe that included stops in Saudi Arabia and Taormina, Sicily, for a Group of Seven meeting.

In Warsaw he can expect a much warmer reception than he will find the following day in Germany, with many world leaders dismayed by his decision to pull the United States out of the Paris climate deal.

Poland’s conservative and nationalistic ruling party, Law and Justice, shares many of Trump’s beliefs, including opposition to Muslim immigrants, support for burning coal and skepticism of international bodies, including the EU, which they see eroding the sovereignty of nation states. Like Trump, Polish leaders speak of restoring national greatness.

Where the two sides differ — and sharply — is on Russia, with Polish leaders deeply fearful and skeptical of Russia’s resurgence. The Polish ruling party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who is widely considered more influential than the president or prime minister, accuses Russia of intentionally bringing down a plane in 2010 that killed his identical twin brother, President Lech Kaczynski. In a speech on Saturday he railed against what he called “Russian barbarity.”

Many Poles have worried about Trump’s past dismissiveness of NATO, though the current leaders have refrained from criticizing him publicly.

The visit to Poland will bring Trump to one of only four NATO members other than the U.S. that spends the required 2 percent of GDP on defense.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Problemia Energetici

Polonia. Da oggi riceve il gas naturale liquefatto degli Usa.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-05-01.

2017-05-01__Polonia__0012013_04_4_16_18_20

«La Polonia ha firmato il suo primo accordo per l’acquisto di gas naturale liquefatto da un fornitore statunitense, un passo che aiuterà gli sforzi del paese a ridurre la propria dipendenza dalle consegne provenienti dalla Russia»

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«Il terminale Swinoujscie ha una capacità annua iniziale di cinque miliardi di metri cubi di gas naturale, ma questo potrebbe presto salire a 7,5 miliardi di metri cubi – circa il cinquanta per cento del consumo di gas corrente della Polonia. L’impianto costa 720 milioni di euro (785 milioni di dollari).»

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«La Polonia ha inoltre avviato l’importazione di gas dal Medio Oriente, in particolare dal Qatar e dalla Norvegia»

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«Gli Stati Uniti sono ricchi di gas di scisto, rendendola un importante esportatore del combustibile»

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«Questa è la prima fornitura di gas americana non solo per la Polonia, ma anche per l’Europa del Nord.»

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Ridurre la dipendenza energetica è operazione savia, specie poi quando si sia vincolati ad un fornitore unico, in questo caso la Russia.

Ma a ben valutare tutta questa operazione, alcune considerazioni sarebbero ovvie.

La principale però riguarda il paese produttore del gas naturale liquefatto (Lng): gli Stati Uniti.

Durante l’Amministrazione Obama furono diramate direttive che portarono al fallimento l’intera industria estrattiva dello shale gas. Motivazioni ideologiche che mimetizzavano gli interessi economici dei liberals democratici avevano quasi azzeratola produzione.

Con il terminal di Swinoujscie la Polonia riduce in modo sensibile la sua dipendenza dal gas russo, ma nulla vieta di pensare che esso possa essere ampliato in un prossimo futuro, anche per essere eventualmente smistato ai paesi confinanti.

Nota.

Uno dei motivi dell’alto costo del gas naturale russo è legato al suo trasferimento dai giacimenti al consumatore.

Oltre il costo del gasdotto, investimento da svariati miliardi, si dovrebbe contabilizzare quello imputabile alle stazioni di compressione. Ogni cento kilometri circa, è necessario infatti collocare una stazione di compressione che è peraltro alimentata dallo stesso gas trasportato. Dal confine russo a quello tedesco il gasdotto Yamal ha ben undici stazioni di pompaggio, che consumano circa il venti per cento del gas immesso. È un venti per cento ricaricato sull’utente finale.


Trend Online. 2017-04-27. La Polonia da oggi riceverà il gas naturale dagli Stati Uniti

La Polonia ha firmato il suo primo accordo per l’acquisto di gas naturale liquefatto da un fornitore statunitense, un passo che aiuterà gli sforzi del paese a ridurre la propria dipendenza dalle consegne provenienti dalla Russia. La ditta che fornirà il gas è la Cheniere Energy (Francoforte: 580884notizie) (LNG), la quale fornirà le prime forniture di giugno a un terminale di gas naturale liquefatto (LNG) a Swinoujscie sulla costa baltica, costruito lo scorso anno.

Il primo ministro Beata Szydlo ha detto che l’accordo aiuta la Polonia a ridurre la sua dipendenza dalle consegne provenienti dalla Russia. Il paese ha cercato di ridurre la sua dipendenza da Mosca, perchè la Russia ha usato il combustibile come strumento per la pressione su alcuni paesi della regione in passato. Il terminale Swinoujscie ha una capacità annua iniziale di cinque miliardi di metri cubi di gas naturale, ma questo potrebbe presto salire a 7,5 miliardi di metri cubi – circa il cinquanta per cento del consumo di gas corrente della Polonia. L’impianto costa 720 milioni di euro (785 milioni di dollari).

Tra i passi più importanti c’è stata l’apertura l’anno scorso del porto di Swinoujscie. La Polonia ha inoltre avviato l’importazione di gas dal Medio Oriente, in particolare dal Qatar e dalla Norvegia. Gli Stati Uniti sono ricchi di gas di scisto, rendendola un importante esportatore del combustibile. Tra gli altri, sta esportando verso paesi del sud dell’Europa come la Spagna e la Turchia, ma non ancora a nord del continente.

La Polonia vuole utilizzare il terminale non solo per scuotere la morsa del gigante energetico russo Gazprom, ma anche per spingersi nella posizione di un importante player nel mercato del gas della regione. L’attuale membro dell’Unione europea dipende sulla Russia per circa il 40% del suo gas, con un terzo proveniente da fonti nazionali e il 20% dall’Asia centrale.

Il gas è fornito dalla società Cheniere Energy. Questa è la prima fornitura di gas americana non solo per la Polonia, ma anche per l’Europa del Nord. Abbiamo acquistato questo gas ad un prezzo molto buono. Questo è un accordo molto importante e vantaggioso in termini finanziari. Ma soprattutto, è l’indipendenza dal gas russo.

ha riferito in un colloquio televisivo il primo ministro polacco Beata Szydlo.

Il capo del gigante del gas polacco PGNiG, Piotr Wozniak, ha definito l’accordo un “momento storico” per la società che sta “guadagnando un nuovo partner nel commercio di LNG” in Nord America e diventando un “gateway” per il gas americano nell’Europa settentrionale.

L’impianto Sabine Pass in Louisiana ha iniziato le spedizioni nel febbraio 2016 e Cheniere sta costruendo un secondo complesso a Corpus Christi, Texas. PGNiG lo scorso mese ha annunciato che il suo unico contratto di fornitura a lungo termine di LNG, con Qatargas, sarebbe raddoppiato a 2 milioni di tonnellate/anno a partire dal 2018. PGNiG ha aperto il suo London Trade LNG nel febbraio di quest’anno.

Gazprom ha dichiarato nel suo rapporto finanziario per il 2016 che la società polacca ha presentato la disdetta il 14 marzo, citando la politica di prezzi “ingiusta” di Gazprom verso PGNiG e ostacolando il commercio transfrontaliero di gas tra altre presunte violazioni. Il gruppo controllato dal Cremlino è stato oggetto di indagini da parte dell’UE in merito alle violazioni dei cartelli sin dal 2011. Per evitare eventuali multe, nel mese di marzo Gazprom ha offerto alcune concessioni ai regolatori antitrust dell’UE.