Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti, Trump

USA. Primo Trimestre. Pil cresce del +3.2%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-04-27.

White House Gatto 001

«During the three-month period from January to March, the GDP rose at a 3.2 percent annualized rate, beating most analysts’ expectations of 2.5 percent»

*

«It also bested GDPNow, a real-time tracker monitored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which lowered its forecast to 2.7 percent this week because of weakness in existing-home sales and a drop in residential investment growth»

*

«But despite the better-than-expected figure, some analysts suggested the U.S. economy will still decelerate in 2019 and 2020»

* * * * * * *

Per comparazione, l’eurozona nel primo trimestre evidenzia una variazione del pil dello +0.2%.

A questo punto dovrebbe sorgere spontanea la domanda del perché mai il sistema economico americano cresca più che bene mentre quello dell’eurozona stia stagnando.

Cercare di capire perché gli altri facciano meglio di noi, e cercare quindi di imitarli, sembrerebbe essere un ragionamento di buon senso.


Fox Business. 2019-04-26. US economic growth rebounds at 3.2 percent pace in first quarter

The U.S. economy grew more quickly than most economists expected during the first quarter of 2019, according to data released Friday by the Commerce Department.

During the three-month period from January to March, the GDP rose at a 3.2 percent annualized rate, beating most analysts’ expectations of 2.5 percent.

It also bested GDPNow, a real-time tracker monitored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which lowered its forecast to 2.7 percent this week because of weakness in existing-home sales and a drop in residential investment growth.

The economy largely shook off the effects of a five-week long government shutdown — the longest in U.S. history — that White House officials once warned could result in near-zero growth. The standoff was a result of a feud between President Trump and Democratic congressional leaders over funding for a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.

Disposable income rose $116 billion, or 3 percent, in the first quarter. Overall prices 0.8 percent.

Investors were closely watching the report’s release for signs to dismiss fears of an impending economic recession. Stocks rose on the better-than-expected results in pre-market trading.

We started 2019 with fears that the longest government shutdown in history, along with a softening global growth outlook, would weigh on economic activity in the first quarter,” Michael Reynolds, an investment strategy officer at Glenmede said. “3.2 percent growth is a solid result, suggesting this long, late-stage expansion may be more resilient than feared.

But despite the better-than-expected figure, some analysts suggested the U.S. economy will still decelerate in 2019 and 2020. Although inventories were high — boosting the growth number — Agathe Demarais, the global forecasting director at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said it’s likely to become a drag on growth soon.

Demarais estimated that growth in 2019 will stand at 2.2 percent — a sharp fall from 2.9 percent in 2018. She attributed part of that to the effects of global trade tensions. In 2020, she said growth is expected to fall to 1.7 percent amid softening consumer demand and a less supportive external environment.

“Against this backdrop, we expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates stable this year before cutting rates by 50 basis points in 2020,” she said. “This path for monetary policy will cushion growth in 2019 to 2020 and help to guard against a sharper downturn in US economic conditions.”

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Italia. Numeri del malgoverno passato.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-03-27.

2019-03-23__Italia__Pil__001

Gli alberi si giudicano dai frutti che danno.

I frutti diventano meglio visibili quando i dati sono espressi in dollari americani, valuta di riferimento a livello mondiale.

Nel 2008 il pil era 2,402 miliardi Usd ed a fine 2018 era 2,071 miliardi Usd.

Nel corso del 2018 il pil è rimasto praticamente fermo.

* * * * * * *

Si faccia attenzione. Riportare il pil nella valuta locale può giocare brutti scherzi.

Se valutato in bolivar, il pil venezuelano è cresciuto di migliaia di volte nel corso degli ultimi anni, ma se riportato in dollari americani è crollato. Non era crescita, ma semplice deprezzamento del bolivar.

* * * * * * *

«nel ventennio 1999-2018 il tasso medio di crescita dell’Italia (+0,4%) è stato paria circa un quarto della media dell’Ue (+1,6%), di Francia (+1,5%) e Germania (+1,4%) e un quinto di Spagna (+2%) e Regno Unito (+1,9%)»

*

«il Pil pro capite e i consumi trasformati in standard di potere d’acquisto (Spa): in questo caso emerge un peggioramento della posizione dell’Italia (96% rispetto alla  media Ue), con la sola Spagna (91,6%) a segnare una performance peggiore, mentre la migliore è la Germania  (123,5%).»

*

«con la crescita degli ultimi anni (+946.000 nel 2013-2018) ha recuperato quasi interamente il numero di occupati persi durante la crisi (circa un milione di occupati in meno), mentre Germania e Regno Unito hanno registrato un incremento dei posti di lavoro di oltre il 10% dal 2007 ad  oggi»

*

«Confcommercio ha tagliato stime di crescita per il 2019, da +1% a +0,3%, mentre nel 2020 è atteso un aumento dello 0,5%»

*

«Con l’aumento dell’Iva sono attese più tasse per 382 euro a  testa e 889 euro a famiglia»

* * * * * * *

La persona media non è tenuta a seguire con costanza gli indicatori econometrici. E non è nemmeno tenuta a conoscere che questi indicatori rappresentino nella realtà dei fatti: la persona media sgobba da mattino a sera a lavorare per mantenere sé stessa e la famiglia.

Ma la persona media è quella che ha un ben preciso quadro della situazione economica andando a fare la spesa al mercato, pigliando il biglietto dell’autobus, facendo la coda per potersi prenotare una visita medica oppure gli esami indicati per la sua salute.

Poi, spesso, la persona media durante le ferie visita paesi stranieri, ed inizia così a fare dei paragoni.

La palude economica non è una maledizione divina oppure una catastrofe naturale: è solo il frutto di un continuo malgoverno.

Né ci si illuda: proprio per nulla.

Il cambio di governo inverte spesso la tendenza, ma gli effetti della precedente incuria tendono a perdurare a lungo nel tempo. Nessun nuovo governo ha la bacchetta magica.


Trend On Line. 2019-03-22. L’Italia è cresciuta quattro volte meno della media Ue

Negli ultimi vent’anni la crescita nell’Ue e nell’Unione economica e monetaria ha subito un costante e progressivo rallentamento, senza variazioni significative dei divari tra  tassi medi di incremento del Pil relativi ai singoli Paesi  membri e/o alle aree.

In altre parole, le nazioni caratterizzate da dinamiche meno elevate, tendono a patire in modo costante il distacco dalle economie più vivaci. Un Paese che manifesta una strutturale differenza negativa nei  tassi di crescita è l’Italia. E’ quanto si legge nel rapporto L’euro compie vent’anni, stilato dall’Ufficio Studi  Confcommercio e presentato in apertura del Forum di Cernobbio, dal quale emerge che nel ventennio 1999-2018 il tasso medio di crescita dell’Italia (+0,4%) è stato paria circa un quarto della media dell’Ue (+1,6%), di Francia (+1,5%) e Germania (+1,4%) e un quinto di Spagna (+2%) e Regno Unito (+1,9%) .

Un confronto significativo si può fare usando il Pil pro capite e i consumi trasformati in standard di potere d’acquisto (Spa): in questo caso emerge un peggioramento della posizione dell’Italia (96% rispetto alla  media Ue), con la sola Spagna (91,6%) a segnare una performance peggiore, mentre la migliore è la Germania  (123,5%). Una nota positiva per il nostro Paese è che i consumi privati hanno evidenziato una migliore tenuta negli anni della prolungata crisi. Per quanto riguarda l’occupazione, nel 2018 l’Ue contava 239 milioni di occupati, di cui 158,2 milioni nell’Uem. Rispetto al 2013, nel periodo della crisi finanziaria ed economica, quando è stato toccato  il minimo, l’occupazione nel 2018 è aumentata di 14,6 milioni nei Paesi Ue, di cui 9,3 milioni nella zona euro .

L’Italia, con la crescita degli ultimi anni (+946.000 nel 2013-2018) ha recuperato quasi interamente il numero di occupati persi durante la crisi (circa un milione di occupati in meno), mentre Germania e Regno Unito hanno registrato un incremento dei posti di lavoro di oltre il 10% dal 2007 ad  oggi, così come tutti i Paesi del gruppo Nord-Europa (in particolare Lussemburgo, Svezia e Austria). Dal 2013 il tasso di occupazione europeo ha iniziato una lenta risalita (nel 2018 media del 73% nella fascia 20-64 anni, con un obiettivo  del 75% nel 2020), ma l’Italia è penultima con il 62,9%, seguita solo dalla Grecia con il 59,4% .

Per quanto riguarda infine la stretta attualità, Confcommercio ha tagliato stime di crescita per il 2019, da +1% a +0,3%, mentre nel 2020 è atteso un aumento dello 0,5% , ma solo con l’ipotesi di totale disinnesco delle clausole di salvaguardia sull’Iva  (costo operazione stimato a 23,1 miliardi di euro). Con l’aumento dell’Iva sono attese più tasse per 382 euro a  testa e 889 euro a famiglia.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Germania. Verso una stagnazione irreversibile. I numeri.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-03-08.

2019-03-08__Germania__001

2019-03-08__Germania__002

German Trade Surplus Narrows in August

«The German trade surplus decreased to EUR 17.2 billion in August 2018 from EUR 20.0 billion in the same month a year earlier, as exports rose by 2.2 percent to EUR 105.2 billion, while imports increased at a faster 6.2 percent to EUR 88.1 billion.»

German Trade Surplus Narrows in September

«The German trade surplus decreased to EUR 18.4 billion in September 2018 from EUR 24.2 billion in the same month a year earlier, as imports rose by 5.3 percent to EUR 90.7 billion, while exports fell 1.2 percent to EUR 109.1 billion. »

German Trade Surplus Narrows in October

«The German trade surplus decreased to EUR 18.3 billion in October 2018 from EUR 19.1 billion in the same month a year earlier.»

German Trade Surplus Narrows in November

«The German trade surplus decreased to EUR 20.5 billion in November 2018 from EUR 23.8 billion in the same month a year earlier, as imports rose 3.6 percent while exports were nearly unchanged.»

* * *

2019-03-08__Germania__003

2019-03-08__Germania__004

«In April 2018, the German government had predicted economic growth of 2.3 percent»

*

«In October, Berlin reduced its growth forecast to 1.8 percent.»

*

«Germany cuts GDP growth forecast for 2018, sees up to 1.6 percent»

*

È molto facile rilasciare comunicati altisonanti. Ma tra il dire ed il fare c’è di mezzo il mare e, talora, l’oceano.

La Germania sta arenandosi: al di là dello stretto significato tecnico, la Germania è in stagnazione.

Il suo comparto automobilistico sta morendo sotto leggi e regolamenti votati dal governo Merkel, così come il comparto energetico. La crisi demografica la sta stritolando.

L’ubbia delle alternative presenta costi non sostenibili.

Germania. I tedeschi iniziano a fare qualche conto.

Industria automobilistica. Potrebbe lasciare a breve la Germania.

«The German trade surplus decreased to EUR 13.9 billion in December 2018 from EUR 18.4 billion in the same month a year earlier. It was the smallest trade surplus since January 2016, mainly due to a sharp decline in exports. Balance of Trade in Germany averaged 5223.57 EUR Million from 1950 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 25455.63 EUR Million in March of 2016 and a record low of -535.91 EUR Million in April of 1991. ….

The German trade surplus decreased to EUR 13.9 billion in December 2018 from EUR 18.4 billion in the same month a year earlier. It was the smallest trade surplus since January 2016, mainly due to a sharp decline in exports.

Exports slumped 4.5 percent from a year earlier to EUR 96.1 billion in December, as sales to the EU declined 4.6 percent to EUR 55.2 billion, in particular Euro area (-4.1 percent to EUR 35.3 percent) and non-Euro area countries (-5.5 percent to EUR 19.9 percent). In addition, exports to countries outside the EU dropped 4.3 percent to EUR 40.9 billion.

Meanwhile, imports were nearly unchanged at EUR 82.1 billion. Purchases from the EU went up 1.2 percent to EUR 47.3 billion, driven by imports from the Euro area (3 percent to EUR 31.4 billion) while there were declines in imports from non-Euro area countries (-2.1 percent to EUR 15.9 billion). Also, imports from countries outside the EU fell 1.6 percent to EUR 34.8 billion. ….

Considering 2018 full year, the trade surplus narrowed to EUR 227.8 billion from EUR 247.9 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year.» [Fonte]

*

Per dirla in termini politicamente corretti, la Germani potrà – forse – cercare di riprendersi quando Frau Merkel si sarà pienamente ritirata, non presentando alle prossime elezioni.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Unione Europea risultato di una dirigenza inetta. I numeri della débâcle.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-03-08.

2019-03-05__Eurozona__Gdp__001

Il Wall Street Journal è lapidario nella constatazione dei fatti.

«the European Commission cut the 2019 eurozone growth forecast from an already anemic 1.9% to 1.3%. Economic output in the eurozone was lower in 2017 than it was in 2009; over that same period, gross domestic product grew 139% in China, 96% in India, and 34% in the U.S.».

La colpa di un simile disastro è da imputarsi in toto all’attuale dirigenza.

Mr Hollande, Mr Macron, Frau Merkel, Mr Renzi, Mr Gentiloni, Herr Rutte come capi di stato, Mr Juncker, Mr Tusk, Mr Oettinger, Mr Moscovici come eurocrati.

Sono dei falliti che hanno trascinato l’Europa al fallimento.

Ma il Wall Street Journal è stato ancora con la mano leggera.

Se invece del 2009 avesse optato per il 2008, i dati sarebbero stati ben peggiori.

Nel 2008 il pil dell’eurozona era 14,113.094 miliardi Usd, ed a fine 2017 era 12,589.880 miliardi.

Similmente, il pil procapite è crollato da 42,770 Usd a 36,670 Usd.

Riassumendo: il pil è sceso di 1,523.21 miliardi Usd ed il pil procapite di 6,100 Usd.

Tutto il mondo ha progredito tranne che l’eurozona, che invece è regredita.

Ripetiamo solo per chiarezza: la colpa di un simile disastro è da imputarsi in toto all’attuale dirigenza. Scomparire sarà l’unica cosa decente che abbiano fatto.

* * * * * * *

«decline of Europe as a force in world affairs»

*

«The Continent’s Grand Unity Project Is Failing»

*

«As its economy lags behind, Europe is becoming more divided politically»

*

«A recent report from the European Council on Foreign Relations projects that anti-EU parties from the right and left are on course to control enough seats in the near European Parliament that they will be able to disrupt the EU and weaken it further»

*

«two factors contributed to the continent’s geopolitical decline in the 20th century»

*

«One was inevitable the wealth gap between Europe and the rest of the world necessarily narrowed»

*

«The second factor in Europe’s decline was internal division and nationalistic animosity»

*

«The Euro was both an economic and political failure; and, diplomatic unity remains a distant dream»

*

«China takes Japan and India more seriously than it takes the EU»

*

«Leaders in France and Germany remain firmly committed to the European project, but with Britain on the brink of secession, Italy and Poland mutinous, and Hungary left defiant, the outlook is dimming»

*

«forced harmonization is engendering: distrust, resentment, ridicule, contempt and even hatred, amongst and between the people’s of the European continent»

*

«We have an elitist, bureaucratic, corrupt, authoritarian, repressive institution and leadership on one side and, a demoralized, lost generation of youth who see an “unaccountable, undemocratic, illegitimate and ultimately repressive super-state” that is digging Europe and themselves into an even deeper hole»

*

«A country and its citizens cannot subordinate its sovereignty to an unaccountable, sclerotic, bloated bureaucratic entity in Brussels»

*

«That is why Brexit passed; and, a vibrant, continent-wide nationalist movement took hold»

*

«The demise of the EU and the Euro as currently conceived; and it is only a matter of when, not if»

* * * * * * *

È veramente molto difficile non essere di accordo con il Wall Street Journal quando dice:

«A country and its citizens cannot subordinate its sovereignty to an unaccountable, sclerotic, bloated bureaucratic entity in Brussels»


WSJ. 2019-02-25. Incredible Shrinking Europe

«Last week offered fresh evidence that the most consequential historical shift of the last 100 years continues: the decline of Europe as a force in world affairs. As Deutsche Bank warned of a German recession, the European Commission cut the 2019 eurozone growth forecast from an already anemic 1.9% to 1.3%. Economic output in the eurozone was lower in 2017 than it was in 2009; over that same period, gross domestic product grew 139% in China, 96% in India, and 34% in the U.S., according to the World Bank.»


Fortuna’s Corner. 2019-02-25. Incredible Shrinking Europe: The Continent’s Grand Unity Project Is Failing; And Its Global Influence Is Fading;”The Rotten Heart Of Europe”

Incredible Shrinking Europe: The Continent’s Grand Unity Project Is Failing; And Its Global Influence Is Fading;”The Rotten Heart Of Europe”.

*

The title above comes from an Op-Ed in today’s (Feb. 12, 2019) Wall Street Journal (WSJ) by Walter Russell Mead. According to his Wikipedia biography, Mr. Mead is the James Clarke Chace Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College; and, previously taught foreign affairs at Yale University. He is also Editor-At-Large of The American Interest Magazine, and a columnist for the WSJ.

Mr. Mead begins, “Last week offered fresh evidence that the most consequential historical shift of the last 100 years continues: the decline of Europe as a force in world affairs. As Deutsche Bank warned of a German recession, the European Commission cut the 2019 Eurozone growth forecast from an already anemic 1.9 percent, to 1.2 percent. Economic output in the Eurozone was lower in 2017 than it was on 2009.” “Over that same period, gross domestic product grew 129 percent in China, 96 percent in India, and 34 percent in the U.S.,” according to the World Bank.

“As its economy lags behind, Europe is becoming more divided politically,” Professor Mead reminds us. “Brexit negotiations have inflamed tempers on both sides of the English Channel; Central European Countries like Hungary and Poland are alienated from the West; much of Southern Europe remains bitter about the aftermath of the Euro crisis; and the EU political parties continue to gain support across the bloc. A recent report from the European Council on Foreign Relations projects that anti-EU parties from the right and left are on course to control enough seats in the near European Parliament that they will be able to disrupt the EU and weaken it further. This wasn’t supposed to happen,” Mr. Mead notes. “The EU was founded to stop Europe’s decline, not reflect it.” Though to be fair, the EU was also formed in part because the continent had germinated two world wars; and, no one wanted a third.

“As Europe’s founders saw it, two factors contributed to the continent’s geopolitical decline in the 20th century,” Mr. Mead writes. “One was inevitable,” he contends, “as technologies of the industrial heartland spread to Asia and the Americas; the wealth gap between Europe and the rest of the world necessarily narrowed. The diffusion of medical innovations — which also often originated in Europe — contributed to population explosions in the rest of the world. Meanwhile, Europe, the first continent to industrialize, was the first to experience decline in its birthrates associated with urbanization and affluence.”

“The second factor in Europe’s decline was internal division and nationalistic animosity,” Mr. Mead wrote. “This was the problem the EU’s founders sought to cure. Two world wars left much of Europe impoverished and in ruins. If the Continent could unify under a single set of values and political institutions, future wars could be averted. The unification policies began with Franco-German reconciliation after World War II. As the Cold war ended, and Germany was reunified, European leaders launched an ambitious program to broaden and deepen transnational cooperation.

“The union would expand to the east,” Professor Mead wrote, securing democracy in the former Warsaw Pact countries. Economic cooperation would deepen with the development of a single market, the establishment of a common currency, and the adoption of common economic principals. Diplomatically, the Europeans would seek a unified front in their dealings with the outside world. Building a new Europe that could compete on equal terms with the United States and China in a post-Cold War world is Europe’s overarching goal.”

“It’s become increasingly apparent that this grand project is failing,” Professor Mead argues. “An uneven; and perhaps overambitious expansion weakened — rather than strengthened the EU. The Euro was both an economic and political failure; and, diplomatic unity remains a distant dream.”

“Neighbors like Russia, Turkey, Israel, and the Arab states flout the EU’s wishes at will,” Professor Mead wrote. “European influence in Washington, already declining in the Obama years, has reached a nadir under POTUS Trump. Neither Moscow, nor Washington showed much regard for Europe’s interests when suspending the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which limits missile deployments in Europe. China takes Japan and India more seriously than it takes the EU; and, neither the U.S. nor China has been particularly concerned about what Europeans think, as they negotiate bilateral trade agreements that may redefine the world trade system.”

“One European initiative did work,” Professor Mead notes: “the single market. Europe remains formidable as a consumer bloc, and the EU’s ability to regulate the conditions under which foreign companies like Google and Gazprom operate inside its wealthy market is the most important card in its hand.”

“Leaders in France and Germany remain firmly committed to the European project, but with Britain on the brink of secession, Italy and Poland mutinous, and Hungary left defiant, the outlook is dimming,” Professor Mead observes. “if Paris and Berlin could devise a program to reignite European growth, secure its frontiers, and satisfy the nationalist emotions now ruling the bloc, Europe could arrest its decline. So far at least, such an outcome seems unlikely.” he notes.

“Some on the nationalist right in the U.S. welcome Europe’s demise,” Professor Mead wrote. “This is a mistake. A strong Europe, even if it is sometimes cantankerous and disagreeable, is better for the U.S. than a weak Europe — that can neither secure its own neighborhood, nor contribute to global stability. But, the U.S. must deal with the Europe we have; and, the Europe we have….isn’t doing well,” Professor Mead concludes.

Bernard Connolly, Author Of “The Rotten Heart Of Europe: The Dirty War For Europe’s Money”

I have felt from the beginning that the European Union and the Euro. as currently conceived — was doomed to failure. I wonder what took Mr. Mead so long, as I deeply respect his intellect and grasp of history.  In 2014, Rick Santelli of CNBC had a fascinating and thought provoking interview with Bernard Connolly. Mr. Connolly an Oxford educated British economist who is known for his pessimistic outlook for the Euro and the European Monetary Union, provided a sobering but thoughtful assessment of the European Union.

Mr. Connolly’s book, “The Rotten Heart of Europe: The Dirty War For Europe’s Money,” is a sobering, but realistic assessment of the consequences and pitfalls that plague the Eurozone — as a consequence of pursuing a continent-wide monetary union. And Mr. Connolly should know, he was there for the “birth” of the Euro and was partly responsible for where Europe is today. Depression and recession are widespread across the continent as toxic nationalism and profound unemployment — especially among the youth are pervasive.

Mr. Connolly contends that the monetary union — which is at the heart of this grand Euro experiment — is rotten at its core. Indeed, Mr. Connolly contends that this destructive pursuit is making the economic situation in Europe worse than it would otherwise be; and, this “forced harmonization” is engendering “distrust, resentment, ridicule, contempt and even hatred,” amongst and between the people’s of the European continent. Yet Mr. Connolly notes, “the people who put this together (some of whom are in leadership positions today) hail the EURO and EU as a success.” “They call Spain a success and they have 27% unemployment. Greece is called exceptional; and yet, youth unemployment there is a staggering 67%.” He calls this belief in the promise of a monetary union either crazy or disturbing. Those who originally proposed a European Union thought this was the path to prevent a third European civil war. The reality Mr. Connolly says, is a reversal of the post-WWII economic revival. “We have an elitist, bureaucratic, corrupt, authoritarian, repressive institution and leadership on one side and, a demoralized, lost generation of youth who see an “unaccountable, undemocratic, illegitimate and ultimately repressive super-state” that is digging Europe and themselves into an even deeper hole. Not surprisingly, he sees ultimate failure for the European Union and even disaster, the longer those in charge in Europe pursue this feckless endeavor. A deadly cocktail of unintended consequences. You may or may not agree with Mr. Connolly; but, it is hard to dismiss, or ignore him and his thesis — would be a failure itself.

Divorcing oneself from this unworkable union will not solve Europe’s economic woes — not by a long shot. Over-excessive and oppressive regulation, onerous taxation, and the migrant crisis will still haunt the continent. But, being miserable in one’s own country is more tolerable that being miserable for some disconnected, faceless entity.

POTUS Obama and his national security team were on the wrong side of history. A country and its citizens cannot subordinate its sovereignty to an unaccountable, sclerotic, bloated bureaucratic entity in Brussels. That is why Brexit passed; and, a vibrant, continent-wide nationalist movement took hold.  The demise of the EU and the Euro as currently conceived — is doomed to failure in my view; and it is only a matter of when — not if — IMO  RCP, fortunascorner.com

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Merkel. EU deve cambiare radicalmente la politica economica.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-03-03.

2019-02-27__EU_Gdp__001

Gdp dell’Unione Europea, denominato in Usd.


I dati sono davvero di semplice lettura.

Comparando i dati attuali con quelli rilevati nel 2009, la Cina è passata da un gdp procapite di 4,142 Usd agli attuali  7,129; sempre in Cina il gdp è passato da 5,109.95 a 12,237.7 miliardi Usd; mentre l’Unione Europea aveva un gdp di 17,102.49 miliardi nel 2009 saliti a 17,277.7 nel 2017.


2019-02-27__EU_Gdp__003

Gdp della Cina, denominato in Usd.


La differenza è stridente: il modello cinese è quello vincente e quello europeo è quello perdente.

La dirigenza cinese si è dimostrata efficiente, quella europea inetta.

*

«Germany and the EU need a new industrial strategy to respond to challenges from Asia»

*

«EU politicians and business leaders need to “cooperate very closely” in creating a strategy»

*

«We are all able to feel that tectonic shifts that are currently taking place»

*

«We cannot just keep going with the [policies] we developed 10, 20 years ago»

*

«Many countries in Asia pursue long-term economic strategies»

*

«Speaking at the conference, Kaeser asked his peers and political leaders to act “much more strongly” in support of free trade, open markets and fair competition»

*

«We are only relevant for partners in Asia as long as we are leaders in our fields»

*

«We need to speak with one voice — at best, a European voice»

* * * * * * * *

Di fronte ad un simile disastroso risultato l’attuale dirigenza dovrebbe semplicemente farsi da parte, scomparire.

Mr Hollande prima e Mr Macron dopo, Frau Merkel, Mr Renzi e Mr Gentiloni, Mr Juncker, Mr Tusk, Mr Moscovici, Mr Oettinger e relativi sodali devono andarsene.

Ma forse la cosa peggiore è la beffa finale, quando per uscire da questa empasse affermano che servirebbe

«We need to speak with one voice — at best, a European voice».

Il problema non è quello di parlare con una voce, bensì quello di avere qualcosa da dire.

E senza produzione si deve solo stare zitti. Quei signori hanno assassinato la produzione schiacciandola sotto tasse e burocrazia.

Non solo.

Questa frase suona anche sinistra: essa infatti implicherebbe la presenza di uno stato europeo, esattamente l’opposto di quello che dovrebbe essere un’Unione Europea di stati sovrani.


Deutsche Welle. 2019-02-27. Angela Merkel urges radical shift on EU industrial policy

Germany and the EU need a new industrial strategy to respond to challenges from Asia, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said at a business summit. She has pledged to discuss the shift with France’s Emmanuel Macron.

*

EU politicians and business leaders need to “cooperate very closely” in creating a strategy for the bloc’s industrial sector, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said at the meeting of the Asia-Pacific Committee of German Business (APA) on Tuesday.

“We are all able to feel that tectonic shifts that are currently taking place,” Merkel said, referring to the growing impact of China and other developing economies. “We cannot just keep going with the [policies] we developed 10, 20 years ago.”

Many countries in Asia pursue long-term economic strategies. China, for example, uses state subventions in specific sectors of its industry with the intent to close the technological gap with Western companies and position itself as the market leader.

In dealing with countries like China, Merkel said there needs to be more of a focus on protecting intellectual property and treating businesses fairly.

The chancellor also called for an overhaul of the EU’s policies on competition, and for German businesses to overcome the traditional gap between companies and state officials.

France, Germany to team up

Merkel’s remarks came after German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier suggested a new, more active industrial policy with the state playing a larger role. He also said Germany and France would present a joint strategy.

On Tuesday, Merkel said she would discuss the issue with French President Emmanuel Macron at a meeting set for the following day, as well as at an EU summit in March.

The APA meeting saw the head of German electronics and appliances giant Siemens, Joe Kaeser, take over as chairman of the business group.

Speaking at the conference, Kaeser asked his peers and political leaders to act “much more strongly” in support of free trade, open markets and fair competition.

“In this, the dialogue with China takes on a key role,” he added. “We need to speak with one voice — at best, a European voice.”

Kaeser also called on Germany to build up its presence in Asia and devote more funds into research and development.

“We are only relevant for partners in Asia as long as we are leaders in our fields.”

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Demografia

Giappone. Pil T3 -0.6%. 2.17 vecchi per ogni giovane.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-12-12.

Viale del tramonto. Lelio Menozzi. Il Viale del Tramonto.

Paese di vegliardi crepuscolari: nessuna voglia quindi di imprendere alcunché.

Con 126.4 mln di popolazione, 35.24 milioni (27.87%) hanno età superiore ai 65 anni. Nella fascia tra lo 0 ed i 14 anni si contano 16.236 persone (12.84%). Il rapporto vecchi / giovani vale 2.17, mentre in una Collettività fisiologicamente sana questo rapporto dovrebbe essere ben inferiore alla unità.

Il vecchio è per definizione conservatore dello status quo. Il suo obiettivo è una sopravivenza al meglio possibile, non certo quella di intraprendere lavori nuovi, di produrre un qualcosa.

Una Collettività vecchia ristagna: si è trasformata in una palude. Il Giappone dinamico e vitale è un ricordo degli anni sessanta.

«La contrazione dell’economia giapponese nel periodo da luglio a settembre è stata più ampia del previsto, in primo luogo a causa della flessione degli investimenti aziendali»

*

«In base ai dati del governo, nel terzo trimestre 2018 il pil è calato dello 0,6% rispetto alle stime preliminari di un meno 0,3%, mentre su base annualizzata la contrazione è pari al 2,5%, più del doppio rispetto al meno 1,2%»

* * *

Il trend decrescente è oramai stabilizzato.


Ansa. 2018-12-10. Giappone: Pil terzo trimestre -0,6%

TOKYO, 10 DIC – La contrazione dell’economia giapponese nel periodo da luglio a settembre è stata più ampia del previsto, in primo luogo a causa della flessione degli investimenti aziendali. In base ai dati del governo, nel terzo trimestre 2018 il pil è calato dello 0,6% rispetto alle stime preliminari di un meno 0,3%, mentre su base annualizzata la contrazione è pari al 2,5%, più del doppio rispetto al meno 1,2%. L’apporto degli investimenti in conto capitale sull’economia è diminuito del 2,8% rispetto al precedente trimestre, e al meno 0,2% previsto. Le spese per consumi, che contribuiscono al 60% della formazione del Pi sono calate dello 0,2%.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Germania. Pil Q3 0.2%. Meno della Italia. Grazie Frau Merkel.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-11-14.

G7 Leaders Summit in Canada

Si raccoglie quello che si è seminato.


Ne avevamo già parlato con un anno di anticipo.

Germania. Gigante dai piedi di argilla. – Handelsblatt

Germania. Un grande problema è la miseria, adesso al 20%.

Germania. Non è povera. È misera. – Financial Times

Germania al capolinea. – Handelsblatt

* * *

«The growth of Germany’s price, seasonally and calendar-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) declined to 0.2% in the third quarter of 2018 compared to the previous quarter»

*

«The figure marks the first quarterly decrease since the first three months of 2015»

*

«The decline was mostly attributed to foreign trade development as exports were down while imports increased in the third quarter of the year»

* * *

Questa è la terrifica eredità lasciata dalla Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel ai suoi connazionali tedeschi.

Persino l’Italia dei lebbrosi populisti ha fatto meglio.


Breaking News. 2018-11-14. German GDP growth down 0.2% in Q3

The growth of Germany’s price, seasonally and calendar-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) declined to 0.2% in the third quarter of 2018 compared to the previous quarter, the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported on Wednesday. The figure marks the first quarterly decrease since the first three months of 2015.

On an annual basis, both the price and calendar-adjusted GDP and the price-adjusted GDP rose by 1.1%. In the first half of 2018, German GDP had increased by 0.5% in the second quarter and by 0.4% in the first three months.

The decline was mostly attributed to foreign trade development as exports were down while imports increased in the third quarter of the year. Meanwhile, domestic demand in Germany showed mixed signals.


RTE. 2018-11-14. Germany’s Q3 GDP drops by 0.2%

The German economy contracted for the first time since 2015 in the third quarter as global trade disputes swung the traditional export growth engine of Europe’s largest economy into reverse.

Today’s figures have raised concerns that a near-decade-long expansion is faltering. 

Gross domestic product (GDP) in Europe’s biggest economy contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, the Federal Statistics Office said today. 

That compared with a Reuters forecast for a contraction of 0.1%. 

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, the economy grew by 1.1% from July to September, calendar-adjusted data showed. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected 1.3%. 

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Stati Uniti, Trump

Usa. Pil T3 +4.2%, disoccupazione totale al 3.7%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-10-16.

2018-10-14__Usa_Disoccupati__001_ tot

La Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ha rilasciato l’ultima previsione sul pil americano.

«Latest forecast: 4.2 percent — October 10, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.2 percent on October 10, up from 4.1 percent on October 5. After this morning’s wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning’s Producer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from 2.09 percentage points to 2.20 percentage points.»

*

2018-10-14__Usa_Disoccupati__002_ Ispano

Il Bureau of Labor Statistics ha rilasciato i dati relativi alla disoccupazione.

La disoccupazione totale ammonta al 3.7% rispetto al 4.8 del gennaio 2017, la disoccupazione ispano – latina è 4.5% rispetto al 5.9 del gennaio 2017, la disoccupazione dei negri ed afroamericani vale 6.0%, sempre contro il 7.8% del gennaio 2017.

2018-10-14__Usa_Disoccupati__003_ Negri

*

Il sei novembre l’America si recherà alle urne per il rinnovo della Camera bassa ed il rinnovo parziale del Senato.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Ideologia liberal, Unione Europea

Italia, EU e Budget. L’obiettivo sono le elezioni europee. – Bloomberg

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-10-13.

Clusone.-Trinfo-e-Danza-della-Morte.-La-Marcia-macabra__02_.

Siamo chiari.

Che l’Italia faccia un bilancio in attivo od in deficit, che il deficit sia il 2.4% oppure il 3.9% del pil, ed amenità del genere, non interessa proprio a nessuno. È la cortina fumogena da dare in pasto alla stampa liberal socialista per mascherare le grandi manovre in vista delle cruciali elezioni europee del prossimo maggio.

L’anno prossimo questa eurodirigenza uscirà di carica e scomparirà tra i cascami della storia.

Se è virtualmente impossibile che i sovranisti, i populisti, i ‘lebbrosi’ ottengano la maggioranza dei seggi, sarebbe altrettanto vero constatare che avranno un numero di seggi tali da condizionare ogni azione politica ed economica dell’Unione Europea.

Ma, di nuovo, non è questo il problema.

Il nuovo e sconcertante fatto è il continuo calo di consensi che hanno i partiti tradizionali. Da più di un anno a questa parte ogni sondaggio elettorale ne denuncia una ulteriore erosione nel consenso popolare. In Germania la Union, Cdu e Csu, è proiettata al 26% e l’spd al 10%, un passo dalla famigerata one-digit percentage.

Ai sovranisti populisti non serve vincere, serve al momento destabilizzare e, quindi, condizionare.

*

La devoluzione delle ideologie liberal e socialista è oramai un fenomeno ben visibile a livello mondiale, dal Brasile al Canada, dagli Stati Uniti all’Italia, dalla Francia alla Germania.

Gli Elettori di queste ideologie non ne voglio più sapere. La gente comune le ha in uggia perché sono fetose fetenzie, per denominarle con i termini di uno dei dialetti più pittoreschi di Italia.

Da questo punto di vista, la pantomina inscenata dai liberal democratici nel Senato Americano nell’occasione delle votazioni per la convalida della nomina di Sua Giustizia Kavanaugh è stato inaspettato grasso colato nel crogiolo dei sovranisti.

Le manfrine e le minacce di Mr Juncker, Mr Tusk, Mr Moscovici, Mr Oettinger e degli altri eurocrati non sono percepite quali dei warning economici, ma come i latrati dei liberal moribondi e schiumanti di rabbia impotente. Questi signori, unitamente a Mr Macron ed a Frau Merkel, sono stati e tuttora sono i migliori e più potenti alleati dei sovranisti, dei populisti.

In ciò un plauso straordinario dovrebbe essere tributato alla stampa liberal: in Italia sarebbe stato impensabile il trionfo giallo-verde senza la circadiana operosità dei giornalisti della Rai, del Corriere della Sera, de La Stampa, de La Repubblica e del Sole 24 Ore. La loro capacità menzognera ha svolto il ruolo che a suo tempo ebbe la Pravda nel determinare l’implosione dell’Unione Sovietica: i russi la leggevano e ne deducevano l’esatto contrario. Nessuno si stupirebbe se alla fine venisse fuori che erano stipendiati da Salvini oppure da Di Maio.

* * * * * * *

«A looming showdown between Rome and Brussels over Italy’s budget may provide ammunition for nationalists heading into elections for the European Parliament»

*

«Fractious forces are united in their quest to wrest power away from the European Union»

*

«Italy’s populists are getting ready to uncork the prosecco»

*

«Italy’s Populists Are Picking a Fight With Brussels Over Austerity»

*

«Only four months after taking power, unlikely allies Luigi Di Maio of the anti-Establishment Five Star Movement and Matteo Salvini of the anti-migrant League have picked a fight with Brussels that they could well win.»

*

«If the EC blinks, Rome gets away with new-style Keynesian stimulus, defying the prevailing austerity. If it’s thumbs down, the Italians get a reprimand, which they can exploit to cement their hold on power by rallying their base and revving up their offensive against the Brussels elite»

*

«For the populist government, it’s a win-win…. If the EU says no to the budget, that’s a godsend—they’ll fight their campaign for the European Parliament elections next May on that»

*

«For Italy’s populists, the battle over the budget is symbolic of their quest to wrest control from Juncker and his army of Eurocrats and return it to governments in European capitals, a theme calculated to resonate across the Continent in the approach to next year’s European Parliament elections»

*

«In the meantime, expect plenty more verbal pyrotechnics»

*

«We are against the enemies of Europe—Juncker and Moscovici—shut away in the Brussels bunker»

*

«A looming showdown between Rome and Brussels over Italy’s budget may provide ammunition for nationalists heading into elections for the European Parliament»

*

Il tempo ed i liberal stanno fattivamente lavorando a favore dei populisti sovranisti: diamo tempo al tempo.


Bloomberg. 2018-10-11. Italy’s Populists Are Picking a Fight With Brussels Over Austerity

Fractious forces are united in their quest to wrest power away from the European Union.

*

Italy’s populists are getting ready to uncork the prosecco. Only four months after taking power, unlikely allies Luigi Di Maio of the anti-Establishment Five Star Movement and Matteo Salvini of the anti-migrant League have picked a fight with Brussels that they could well win.

Italy and the 18 other countries that use the euro as their currency have until Oct. 15 to submit their 2019 spending plans to the European Commission for approval. The “people’s budget” Di Maio and Salvini are drafting seeks to make good on costly election promises, while flying in the face of European Union rules that set limits on government deficits and debt. If the EC blinks, Rome gets away with new-style Keynesian stimulus, defying the prevailing austerity. If it’s thumbs down, the Italians get a reprimand, which they can exploit to cement their hold on power by rallying their base and revving up their offensive against the Brussels elite. “For the populist government, it’s a win-win,” says Giovanni Orsina, head of the School of Government at Rome’s Luiss-Guido Carli University. “If the EU says no to the budget, that’s a godsend—they’ll fight their campaign for the European Parliament elections next May on that.”

On paper, the fight is over money to start paying for campaign pledges. Five Star stumped for a basic income for the poor of €780 ($895) a month, while the League promised to cut taxes and lower the retirement age. The government’s fiscal outline contemplates a deficit of 2.4 percent of gross domestic product for 2019, three times the gap targeted by the previous administration. Despite pressure from the EU and from investors, who have repeatedly pushed yields on Italian government bonds to multiyear highs, the ruling coalition has refused to budge on that number, though it’s agreed to lower deficit targets for subsequent years.

Italy is rebelling against austerity, following in the footsteps of Portugal’s Socialist government, which raised the minimum wage and boosted public-sector salaries, flouting the spirit of the €78 billion bailout package the country obtained from the EU and the International Monetary Fund in 2011. France and Spain have also played fast and loose with EU budget rules, without incurring the fines of up to 0.2 percent of GDP that Brussels can levy on countries that persistently exceed the limits.

Guntram Wolff, director of the Bruegel think tank in Brussels, calls this the biggest test of wills over an EU country’s budget since the euro-area debt crisis that began in Greece, then spread to Spain and Portugal. “France always cooperated with Brussels, Portugal too, there was a dialogue,” he says. “What’s more important is that Italy has higher debt and lower productivity growth than France”—which means its situation is more “fragile.”

At more than 130 percent, Italy’s debt-to-GDP ratio is the second-highest in the euro area after Greece. “We have to do everything to avoid a new Greece—this time an Italy—crisis,” said European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker on Oct. 1.

For Italy’s populists, the battle over the budget is symbolic of their quest to wrest control from Juncker and his army of Eurocrats and return it to governments in European capitals, a theme calculated to resonate across the Continent in the approach to next year’s European Parliament elections. “We’ve handed over too much power to Brussels. We have to be a leading country, not a country that is led,” says Michele Geraci, undersecretary at the Ministry of Economic Development. “We want to make sure that European regulations on trade, migration, and other issues look after Italian interests.”

Five Star and the League rose to power on a wave of discontent from voters who have endured a string of unpopular prime ministers installed in power after political negotiations—including economist Mario Monti, who stepped in from 2011 to 2013 to steer the country through the height of the debt crisis. “Voters are rebelling against the loss of sovereignty to powers which imposed austerity and told them nothing could be done to limit immigration,” says Orsina. “That’s why Italy’s traditional ruling class is paying a heavier price than in other countries.” The frustration built up over years of belt-tightening has achieved what seemed politically unfeasible: uniting the rightist League, whose power base is the rich industrial north, with Five Star, a web-savvy movement that draws most of its strength from the depressed south.

Members of the Italian Establishment are mounting a quiet resistance. President Sergio Mattarella, a 77-year-old former constitutional court judge, has forged an alliance with Finance Minister Giovanni Tria in a bid to impose spending restraint on the government. If moral suasion isn’t enough, Mattarella could exercise powers accorded him under the 1948 constitution and refuse to sign the budget into law—although he can only send it back to Parliament once.

More than Brussels, it’s the financial markets that have the power to thwart the Italian populists’ ambitions, especially at a time when the European Central Bank is tapering off its bond purchases. Salvini regularly makes a show of taunting investors. “I’ll eat the spread for breakfast,” he said with typical bombast on Sept. 30—a reference to the 10-year yield spread over German bunds, a barometer of market sentiment.

Despite all the posturing and tough talk, Carsten Brzeski, a former European Commission official, expects the impasse between Rome and Brussels to be resolved amicably. “It’s a bit of give and take, in the end they will find a compromise, a deal,” says Brzeski, who’s now chief economist of ING-DiBa AG, the German branch of the Dutch banking company ING Group.

In the meantime, expect plenty more verbal pyrotechnics. Sitting alongside French nationalist Marine Le Pen at a Rome event on Oct. 8, Salvini launched a broadside against Juncker and Pierre Moscovici, the EU’s economic policy chief. “We are against the enemies of Europe—Juncker and Moscovici—shut away in the Brussels bunker,” he said.

BOTTOM LINE – A looming showdown between Rome and Brussels over Italy’s budget may provide ammunition for nationalists heading into elections for the European Parliament.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Usa. Federal Reserve Atlanta. Pil T3 proiettato al 4.6%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-25.

Gufo_011__

«The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is part of the central bank of the United States. The Federal Reserve System—the Fed, as it is often called—consists of twelve Reserve Banks located around the country and the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C.

The Atlanta Fed territory covers the Sixth Federal Reserve District, which includes Alabama, Florida, and Georgia, and portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee.

The Atlanta Fed has branch offices in Birmingham, Jacksonville, Miami, Nashville, and New Orleans.

At the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, we embrace diversity and inclusion as essential to who we are. The Bank’s values—integrity, excellence, and respect—are a clear statement supporting the notion that every employee is an important part of the Atlanta Fed’s story and success. We advocate a simple truth: only by drawing on the talent, expertise, and perspectives of our entire staff and our external stakeholders will our Bank achieve its greatest potential in fulfilling our mission.

The Atlanta Fed and the 11 other Reserve Banks and Board of Governors play an important part in all five of the Fed’s functions:

– conducting monetary policy

– promoting the stability of the financial system

– promoting the safety and soundness of individual financial systems

– fostering payment and settlement system safety and efficiency

– promoting consumer protection and community development

In its monetary policy role, the Federal Reserve seeks to keep prices stable and economic growth at its maximum sustainable rate. The Atlanta Fed president participates in deciding the direction of interest rates, convening with the other Reserve Bank presidents and the seven Board governors every six weeks at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. ….

The Atlanta Fed and some of its branches provide cash to depository institutions in the region. In addition, as home of the Federal Reserve’s Retail Payments Office, the Atlanta Fed processes transactions made through the Fed’s automated clearing house (ACH) service, an electronic network that facilitates credit and debit payments between banks. The office also clears millions of checks every day. » [Federal Reserve Atlanta]

* * *

La Federal Reserve Atlanta pubblica regolari aggiornamenti della stima del pil per il trimestre in corso, sulla base di un modello predittivo che usualmente si è dimostrato essere preciso con un errore di circa il ±0.1%.

Il 24 agosto tale modello preconizzava un pil di +4.6% per il terzo trimestre,ossia il trimestre in corso.

Se tale stima dovesse trovare conferma potrebbe concorrere potentemente a corroborare la visione strategica della Fed esposta giorni or sono dal Governatore Powell.

Jackson Hole. Il discorso di Mr Jerome Powell.



Federal Reserve of Atlanta. 2018-08-24. Gdp Now.

The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a “nowcast” of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model.

Recent forecasts for the GDPNow model are available here. More extensive numerical details—including underlying source data, forecasts, and model parameters—are available as a separate spreadsheet. You can also view an archive of recent commentaries from GDPNow estimates.

Latest forecast: 4.6 percent — August 24, 2018.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.6 percent on August 24, up from 4.3 percent on August 16. After yesterday’s releases on new-home sales and costs from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth increased from -4.5 percent to -1.1 percent. After this morning’s advance durable manufacturing report from the Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 6.4 percent to 7.5 percent and the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from 1.92 percentage points to 2.03 percentage points.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, August 30. Please see the “Release Dates” tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.