Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Cina. 2021Q1-Q2-Q3. Situazione del sistema economico ragionevolmente buona.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-21.

Cina. The_Great_Hall_of_the_People

                         In sintesi.

Cina. Sept21. Vendite al dettaglio in Cina negli ultimi 12 mesi+16.37%

Cina. Sept21. Investimenti in fixed assets Annuale+7.3%

Cina. Sept21. Pil, Prodotto Interno Lordo, Annual2 +4.9%.

Cina. Sept21. Pil, Prodotto Interno Lordo, ultimi 12 mesi 9.8%.

Cina. Sept21. Produzione Industriale Annuale +3.1%.

Cina. Sept21. Produzione industriale cinese annuale, degli ultimi 12 mesi +11.8%.

Cina. Sept21. Produzione Industriale Profitti +49.5%.

Cina. Sept21. Vendite al dettaglio, Annuale +4.4%.

Cina. Sept21. Vendite al dettaglio, ultimi 12 mesi +16.37%.

Cina. Sept21. Imports 17.6%

Cina. Sept21. Exports 28.1%.

Cina. Sept21. Saldo della bilancia commerciale 66.76 miliardi Usd.

Cina. Sept21. Tasso di disoccupazione 4.9%.

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«As a result, the national economy sustained its recovery and development with all major macro economic indicators falling in the reasonable range»

La situazione economica cinese apparirebbe essere ragionevolmente solida ed in costante crescita, nonostante il fatto che quasi tutto il mondo versi in una situazione di stagflazione che i prezzi delle materie prime siano in costante crescita, specie quelle energetiche, e che la catena degli approvvigionamenti presenti vistose incrinature.

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National Bureau of Statistics of China. The Overall National Economy Maintained the Recovery Momentum in the First Three Quarters.

In the first three quarters, faced with complicated and severe environment both at home and abroad, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments strictly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, coordinated both the epidemic prevention and control and the economic and social development in a scientific manner, enhanced cross-cyclical adjustment of macro policies and effectively responded to multiple tests of epidemic and floods. As a result, the national economy sustained its recovery and development with all major macro economic indicators falling in the reasonable range. The overall social situation was harmonious and stable with generally stable employment, increased residents’ income, balanced international payments, adjusted and optimized economic structure and steadily improved quality and efficiency.

According to the preliminary estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first three quarters reached 82,313.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8 percent at comparable prices, with an average two-year growth of 5.2 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than the average two-year growth of the first half year. By quarter, the GDP for the first quarter increased by 18.3 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 5.0 percent; for the second quarter 7.9 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 5.5 percent; and for the third quarter 4.9 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 4.9 percent. By industry, for the first three quarters, the value added of the primary industry was 5,143.0 billion yuan, up by 7.4 percent year on year, or an average two-year growth of 4.8 percent; that of the secondary industry was 32,094.0 billion yuan, up by 10.6 percent year on year, or an average two-year growth of 5.7 percent; and that of the tertiary industry was 45,076.1 billion yuan, up by 9.5 percent year on year, or an average two-year growth of 4.9 percent. The quarter-on-quarter GDP for the third quarter increased by 0.2 percent.

  1. Agricultural Production Showed Good Momentum and Production of Animal Husbandry Grew Fast.

In the first three quarters, the value added of agriculture (crop farming) went up by 3.4 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 3.6 percent. The total output of summer grain and early rice totaled 173.84 million tons (347.7 billion jin), 3.69 million tons (7.4 billion jin) higher than that of last year, up by 2.2 percent. The sown area for autumn grain was stable with an increase. Of the total, the sown area for corn increased considerably; major crops for autumn grain grew well and another bumper harvest is expected for the year. In the first three quarters, the output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry was 64.28 million tons, up by 22.4 percent year on year. Specifically, the output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry was up by 38.0 percent, 5.3 percent, 3.9 percent and 3.8 percent year on year respectively; that of milk went up by 8.0 percent year on year and eggs down by 2.4 percent. At the end of the third quarter, the number of pigs registered in stock was 437.64 million, up by 18.2 percent year on year, among which 44.59 million were breeding sows, up by 16.7 percent.

  1. Industrial Production Continued to Grow and Business Efficiency Improved Steadily.

In the first three quarters, the total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 11.8 percent year on year, or an average two-year growth of 6.4 percent. In September, the total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 3.1 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 5.0 percent; or up by 0.05 percent month on month. In terms of sectors, in the first three quarters, the value added of mining increased by 4.7 percent year on year; that of manufacturing increased by 12.5 percent; and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water increased by 12.0 percent. The value added of high-tech manufacturing went up by 20.1 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 12.8 percent. In terms of products, the production of new-energy automobiles, industrial robots and integrated circuits increased by 172.5 percent, 57.8 percent and 43.1 percent year on year respectively, with the average two-year growths all exceeding 28 percent. An analysis by types of ownership showed that in the first three quarters, the value added of state holding enterprises was up by 9.6 percent year on year; that of share-holding enterprises up by 12.0 percent; that of enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan up by 11.6 percent; and that of private enterprises up by 13.1 percent. In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 49.6 percent, of which the PMI of high-tech manufacturing was 54.0 percent, 0.3 percentage point higher than that of last month; the Production and Operation Expectation Index was 56.4 percent.

In the first eight months, the total profits made by industrial enterprises above the designated size totaled 5,605.1 billion yuan, up by 49.5 percent year on year, or an average two-year growth of 19.5 percent; the profit rate of the business revenue of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 7.01 percent, 1.20 percentage points higher than last year.

  1. Service Sector Recovered Steadily and Modern Service Industries Grew Well.

 The first three quarters witnessed a steady recovery of the tertiary industry. Specifically, in the first three quarters, the value added of information transmission, software and information technology services and transportation, storage and postal services increased by 19.3 percent and 15.3 percent year on year respectively, with an average two-year growth of 17.6 percent and 6.2 percent respectively. In September, the Index of Services Production grew by 5.2 percent year on year, 0.4 percentage point higher than that in August; or an average two-year growth of 5.3 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher. In the first eight months, the business revenue of service enterprises above the designated size grew by 25.6 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 10.7 percent.

In September, the Business Activity Index for Services stood at 52.4 percent, 7.2 percentage points higher than that in August. Specifically, the Business Activity Index for railway transportation, air transportation, accommodation, catering, ecological protection and environment treatment, those hit hard by the epidemic and flood in August, all rebounded significantly to the level above the threshold. From the perspective of market expectation, the Business Activity Expectation Index for services stood at 58.9 percent, 1.6 percentage points higher than that of last month. Of the total, the Business Activity Expectation Index for sectors like railway transportation, air transportation and express mail service exceeds 65.0 percent.

  1. Market Sales Continued to Grow with Sales of Upgraded Goods and Basic Living Goods Increasing Fast.

In the first three quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 31,805.7 billion yuan, up by 16.4 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 3.9 percent. In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3,683.3 billion yuan, up by 4.4 percent year on year, 1.9 percentage points higher than that in August; an average two-year growth of 3.8 percent, 2.3 percentage points higher than that in August; the month-on-month growth was 0.30 percent. Analyzed by different areas, for the first three quarters, the retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas reached 27,588.8 billion yuan, up by 16.5 percent year on year, or an average two-year growth of 3.9 percent; and that in rural areas rose by 15.6 percent year on year to 4,216.9 billion yuan, with an average two-year growth of 3.8 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, for the first three quarters, the retail sales of goods were 28,530.7 billion yuan, up by 15.0 percent year on year, or an average two-year growth of 4.5 percent; and the revenue of catering was 3,275.0 billion yuan, up by 29.8 percent year on year, or an average two-year decline of 0.6 percent. Grouped by categories, the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry, sports and recreational articles, cultural and office supplies and other upgraded consumer goods by enterprises above the designated size went up by 41.6 percent, 28.6 percent and 21.7 percent year on year respectively; that of basic goods like beverage, clothes, shoes, hats, and textiles and daily necessities went up by 23.4 percent, 20.6 percent and 16.0 percent year on year respectively. The online retail sales of the first three quarters reached 9,187.1 billion yuan, up by 18.5 percent year on year. Specifically, the online retail sales of physical goods totaled 7,504.2 billion yuan, up by 15.2 percent year on year, accounting for 23.6 percent of the total retail sales of consumer goods.

  1. Investment in Fixed Assets Scaled up and Investment in High-tech Industries and Social Sector Grew Fast.

In the first three quarters, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) reached 39,782.7 billion yuan, up by 7.3 percent over that of last year, with an average two-year growth of 3.8 percent; the month-on-month growth in September was 0.17 percent. Specifically, the investment in infrastructure in the first three quarters was up by 1.5 percent year on year, an average two-year growth of 0.4 percent;manufacturing up by 14.8 percent year on year, an average two-year growth of 3.3 percent; and real estate development up by 8.8 percent year on year, an average two-year growth of 7.2 percent. The floor space of commercial buildings sold reached 1,303.32 million square meters, up by 11.3 percent year on year, an average two-year growth of 4.6 percent. The total sales of commercial buildings were 13,479.5 billion yuan, up by 16.6 percent year on year, an average two-year growth of 10.0 percent. By industries, in the first three quarters, the investment in the primary industry went up by 14.0 percent year on year; that in the secondary industry up by 12.2 percent year on year; and that in the tertiary industry grew by 5.0 percent year on year. The private investment went up by 9.8 percent year on year, an average two-year growth of 3.7 percent. The investment in high-tech industries grew by 18.7 percent year on year, an average two-year growth of 13.8 percent. Specifically, the investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services grew by 25.4 percent and 6.6 percent year on year respectively. In terms of high-tech manufacturing, the investment in manufacturing of computers and office devices and in manufacturing of aerospace vehicle and equipment grew by 40.8 percent and 38.5 percent year on year respectively. In terms of high-tech services, the investment in E-commerce services and in testing services went up by 43.8 percent and 23.7 percent year on year respectively. The investment in social sectors went up by 11.8 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 10.5 percent. Specifically, the investment in health and education went up by 31.4 percent and 10.4 percent year on year respectively.

  1. Imports and Exports of Goods Grew Fast and Trade Structure Continued to Improve.

In the first three quarters, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 28,326.4 billion yuan, up by 22.7 percent year on year. Specifically, the value of exports was 15,547.7 billion yuan, up by 22.7 percent and the value of imports was 12,778.7 billion yuan, up by 22.6 percent. The trade balance was 2,769.1 billion yuan in surplus. In September, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 3,532.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4 percent. Specifically, the value of exports was 1,983.0 billion yuan, up by 19.9 percent; that of imports was 1,549.8 billion yuan, up by 10.1 percent. In the first three quarters, the exports of mechanical and electrical products grew by 23 percent year on year, 0.3 percentage point higher than the overall export growth rate, accounting for 58.8 percent of the total value of exports. The imports and exports of general trade accounted for 61.8 percent of the total value of imports and exports, 1.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The imports and exports by private enterprises grew by 28.5 percent year on year, accounting for 48.2 percent of the total value of imports and exports.

  1. Consumer Price Went up Mildly and Increase of Producer Prices for Industrial Products Expanded.

In the first three quarters, the consumer price (CPI) went up by 0.6 percent year on year, 0.1 percentage point higher than that in the first half of this year. Specifically, in September, the consumer price went up by 0.7 percent year on year, 0.1 percentage point lower than that in August; the same as August month on month. In the first three quarters, the consumer price rose by 0.7 percent in urban areas and up by 0.4 percent in rural areas. Grouped by commodity categories, in the first three quarters, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol went down by 0.5 percent year on year; clothing up by 0.2 percent; housing up by 0.6 percent; articles and services for daily use up by 0.2 percent; transportation and communication up by 3.3 percent; education, culture and recreation up by 1.6 percent; medical services and health care up by 0.3 percent; other articles and services down by 1.6 percent. Among the prices for food, tobacco and alcohol, the prices for pork went down by 28.0 percent, grain up by 1.0 percent, fresh vegetables up by 1.3 percent and fresh fruits up by 2.7 percent. Core CPI of the first three quarters excluding the price of food and energy went up by 0.7 percent, an increase expanded by 0.3 percentage point compared with that of the first half of this year.

In the first three quarters, the producer prices for industrial products went up by 6.7 percent, an increase expanded by 1.6 percentage points than that of the first half of this year. Specifically, the prices in September went up by 10.7 percent year on year, or up by 1.2 percent month on month. In the first three quarters, the purchasing prices for industrial producers went up by 9.3 percent year on year, an increase expanded by 2.2 percentage points than that of the first half of this year. Specifically, the prices in September went up by 14.3 percent, or up by 1.1 percent month on month.

  1. Employment Was Basically Stable and Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate Was Stable with Moderate Decline.

In the first three quarters, the newly increased employed people in urban areas totaled 10.45 million, achieving 95.0 percent of the annual target. In September, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 4.9 percent, 0.2 percentage point lower than August and 0.5 percentage point lower than the same period last year. The surveyed unemployment rate of population with local household registration was 5.0 percent and that of population with non-local household registration was 4.8 percent. The surveyed unemployment rates of the population aged from 16 to 24 and from 25 to 59 were 14.6 percent and 4.2 percent respectively. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.0 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than August. The employees of enterprises worked 47.8 hours per week on average, up by 0.3 hour compared with that in August. At the end of the third quarter, the number of rural migrant workers totaled 183.03 million, up by 0.7 million compared with that at the end of the second quarter.

  1. Residents’ Income Grew in Tandem with the Economy and Urban-Rural Per Capita Income Ratio Narrowed.

In the first three quarters, the nationwide per capita disposable income of residents was 26,265 yuan, a nominal increase of 10.4 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 7.1 percent, or a real increase of 9.7 percent year on year after deducting price factors, with an average two-year growth of 5.1 percent, which was generally at the same pace as the growth of economy. In terms of permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban households was 35,946 yuan, a nominal increase of 9.5 percent year on year and a real increase of 8.7 percent; the per capita disposable income of rural households was 13,726 yuan, a nominal increase of 11.6 percent year on year and a real increase of 11.2 percent. By sources of income, the net income from wages and salary, net business income, net property income and net transfer income saw a year-on-year growth of 10.6 percent, 12.4 percent, 11.4 percent and 7.9 percent in nominal terms respectively. The per capita disposable income of urban households was 2.62 times that of the rural households, 0.05 less than the same period last year. The median of the nationwide per capita disposable income was 22,157 yuan, a nominal increase of 8.0 percent year on year.

Generally speaking, the overall national economy maintained the recovery momentum in the first three quarters with steady progress in economic restructuring and new advancement of high-quality development. However, we must note that the current international environment uncertainties are mounting and the domestic economic recovery is still unstable and uneven. At the next stage, we must take Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era as the guideline, implement the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhere to the general working guideline of making progress while maintaining stability, fully and faithfully implement the new development philosophy on all fronts, expedite the building of a new development pattern, carry out the routine epidemic prevention and control, strengthen cross-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, make efforts to promote sustained and healthy economic development, focus on deepening the reform and opening-up and innovation, continuously stimulate market vitality, strengthen development momentum and unleash the potential of domestic demand, so as to maintain the economy operating within the proper range and fulfil the major annual targets and tasks for the economic and social development.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Market Mover della settimana 24/9 – 01/10. È ricca di eventi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-26.

gatto_001__

Market mover della settimana: tutti i dati economici in arrivo.

                         Market mover lunedì 27 settembre

03:30, CNY: Profitti industriali degli ultimi 12 mesi Cina

10:00, EUR: Saldo della bilancia commerciale non-UE Italia

14:30, USD: Principali ordinativi di beni durevoli USA

                         Market mover martedì 28 settembre

01:50, JPY: Verbali della riunione sulla politica monetaria Giappone

08:00, EUR: Rapporto della GfK sul clima fra i consumatori Germania

16:00, USD: Rapporto sulla fiducia dei consumatori USA

22:30, USD: Scorte settimanali di petrolio USA

                         Market mover mercoledì 29 settembre

10:00, EUR: IPP Italia

16:30, USD: Scorte di petrolio greggio USA

                         Market mover giovedì 30 settembre

01:50, JPY: Produzione industriale preliminare Giappone

03:00, CNY: Indice dei direttori agli acquisti del settore manifatturiero Cina

08:00, GBP: PIL Regno Unito

08:00, GBP: Indice nazionale dei prezzi delle case regno Unito

08:00, EUR: Tasso di disoccupazione Germania

10:00, EUR: Tasso mensile di disoccupazione Italia

11:00, EUR: IPC Italia

11:00, EUR: Tasso di disoccupazione Europa

14:00, EUR: IPC preliminare in Germania

14:30, USD: PIL USA

14:30, USD: Richieste iniziali di sussidi di disoccupazione USA

                         Market mover venerdì 1 ottobre

01:50, JPY: Indice Tankan dei grandi produttori manifatturieri Giappone

08:00, EUR: Vendite al dettaglio in Germania

09:45, EUR: Indice dei direttori degli acquisti del settore manifatturiero Italia

09:55, EUR: Indice dei direttori degli acquisti del settore manifatturiero Germania

10:00, EUR: Indice PMI manifatturiero Eurozona

11:00, EUR: IPC preliminare Eurozona

14:30, USD: Indice prezzi spese personali principali USA

16:00, USD: Indice ISM dell’occupazione manifatturiera USA

16:00, USD: Indice ISM dei direttori agli acquisti del settore manifatturiero USA

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Unione Europea

Blocco Europeo. 2021Q2. Pil +2.0% su 2021Q1. In questo caso il rapporto 2021Q2 su 2020Q2 sarebbe fallace.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-18.

2021-08-18__ Eurostat 001

Attenzione!

Correttamente Eurostat titola riportando i rapporti 2021Q2 / 2021Q1.

Infatti il 2020Q2 è stato il peggior semestre con un secco -15%. Di conseguenza, il rapporto 2021Q2 / 2020Q2 è risultato essere abnormemente elevato.

Eurostat non ha pubblicato il riscontro contro l’ultimo semestre prima della crisi economica.

2021-08-18__ Eurostat 002

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Eurostat ha rilasciato il Report GDP up by 2.0% and employment up by 0.5% in the euro area.

GDP up by 2.0% and employment up by 0.5% in the euro area In the EU, GDP up by 1.9% and employment up by 0.6%

                         GDP growth in the euro area and EU.

In the second quarter of 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 2.0% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU, compared with the previous quarter, according to a flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2021, GDP had declined by 0.3% in the euro area and 0.1% in the EU.

During the second quarter of 2021, GDP in the United States increased by 1.6% compared with the previous quarter (after +1.5% in the first quarter of 2021). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP increased by 12.2% (after +0.5% in the previous quarter).

                   Employment growth in the euro area and EU

The number of employed persons increased by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.6% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, compared with the previous quarter. In the first quarter of 2021, employment had decreased by 0.2% in both the euro area and the EU.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment increased by 1.8% in both the euro area and in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, after -1.8% and -1.6% respectively in the first quarter of 2021.

These data provide a picture of labour input consistent with the output and income measure of national accounts.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo

Giappone. 2021Q2. Pil annualizzato +1.3%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-17.

2021-08-17__ Giappone Pil 001

Il Cabinet Office ha rilasciato il Report Quarterly Estimates of GDP

2021-08-17__ Giappone Pil 002

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Japan GDP rebounds in Q2 with 1.3% annualized growth

First uptick in 2 quarters beats forecasts despite COVID state of emergency.

Tokyo — Japan’s economy grew 0.3% in April-June from the previous quarter, equal to an annualized pace of 1.3%, the Cabinet Office announced on Monday, as corporate capital spending turned positive despite consumer spending that remained sluggish amid COVID-19.

The first turnaround in two quarters was bigger than an annualized increase of 0.66% that economists had expected. Most of the period between April and June coincided with a state of emergency in Tokyo, Osaka and other areas, when measures such as curbing outings, shortening restaurant hours, and closing large commercial facilities were implemented.

Japan suffered negative growth in the April-June quarter of 2020, when a state of emergency was declared for the first time in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. But growth turned positive in the July-December period.

In January-March of 2021, a decline in personal consumption due to the state of emergency in the Tokyo metropolitan area and other areas pushed down the overall growth rate, turning negative for the first time in three quarters.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Regno Unito

Regno Unito. 2021Q2. Pil -4.4% rispetto al 2019Q4. Investimenti aziendali +9.7%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-14.

2021-08-12__Regno Unito 001

                         In sintesi.

– The level of GDP is now 4.4% below where it was pre-coronavirus pandemic at Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019

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Diamo con piacere atto allo Office for National Statistics di aver riportato il pil sull’ultimo trimestre del 2019, ultima rilevazione prima del lockdown.

Il sistema economico inglese sta dando vivi segni di ripresa: in particolare gli investimenti delle aziende hanno ripreso a buon ritmo, +9.7%, così come la produzione manifatturiera, +13.9%.

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Lo Office for National Statistics ha Rilasciato il Report GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: April to June 2021

First quarterly estimate of gross domestic product (GDP). Contains current and constant price data on the value of goods and services to indicate the economic performance of the UK.

                         Main Points

– UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 4.8% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2021 following the easing of coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions.

– There have been increases in services, production and construction output over the quarter.

– In output terms, the largest contributors to this increase were from wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and food service activities, and education.

– The level of GDP is now 4.4% below where it was pre-coronavirus pandemic at Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019.

– In Quarter 2 2021, there were increases in nearly all main components of expenditure apart from “trade”, with the largest contribution from household consumption, which contributed 4.1 percentage points to the 4.8% increase following the easing of coronavirus restrictions in Quarter 2 2021 compared with Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2021.

                         Headline GDP figures.

UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 4.8% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2021, following the easing of coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions (Figure 1). Monthly estimates published today (12 August 2021) show that GDP increased across all three months at 2.2% in April, 0.6% in May and 1.0% in June 2021.

The level of GDP in the UK is now 4.4% below where it was prior to the coronavirus pandemic at the end of 2019.

*

Several countries have published first estimates of nominal and real GDP for the second quarter of 2021, including France, Germany, Spain and the United States. Italy and Canada have also published first estimates of real GDP for Quarter 2 2021, but not nominal GDP and therefore have not been included in Figure 2. The UK experienced the largest increase in real GDP of these countries in Quarter 2 2021, in part reflecting the timing of the tightening and easing of public health restrictions in the first half of this year.

Of the other countries, Italy and Spain had the next largest volume increases in Quarter 2 2021. However, these two countries are the furthest away from their pre-pandemic levels of GDP, with Spain 6.8% and Italy 3.8% below their Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019 levels. The United States is the only economy to have recovered to above pre-pandemic levels (0.8%).

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Germania. Le elezioni di settembre potrebbero sconvolgere i piani della Bce. – Merkeldämmerung.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-13.

2021-08-09__ Germania Sondaggi 001

2021-08-13__ DE Sondaggi

La situazione tedesca è del tutto metastabile.

Il pil è aumentato dell’1.5% trimestre su trimestre, il PPI – Indice dei prezzi alla Produzione – è salito all’8.5%, il PCI – prezzi  al consumo – vale 3.8% segno di un crescente effetto inflattivo, l’Indice dei Prezzi alla Importazione vale ora +12.9%. Ma sono i costi dell’energia a colpire tutto il sistema produttivo, più che raddoppiati nell’ultimo biennio, sia per gli aumenti delle materie prime sia per perché gravati dalle tasse ecologiche.

The Energy Report: The Price Of Green

«The price of the green energy transition is starting to worry policymakers across the globe as it is becoming apparent the rash move to alternative energies is going to be so costly that it could put the global economy at risk. The fears of inflation, or what could be called green inflation, are starting to hit home to policymakers that maybe have not thought about the real cost of the energy transition and the impact that is going to have on people’s daily lives.»

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A settembre si terranno le elezioni politiche, e le previsioni elettorali sarebbero quelle riportate nelle tabelle, tenendo conto che di norma in Germania i risultati elettorali differiscono anche grandemente dalle prospezioni.

Si prospetterebbe una situazione nella quale nessun partito risulterebbe essere chiaramente egemone. A ciò conseguirebbe la necessità di formare una coalizione tra forze politiche con anime contrastanti.

Ma il problema si prospetta ben più ampio del solo quadro politico.

ECB. Weidmann e Wunsch votano contro la Lagarde sui tassi di interesse.

Weidmann. ECB dovrebbe ridurre gli stimoli dettati dalla emergenza.

ECB’s Knot Warns Central Bank Could Be Underestimating Inflation

Gli interessi tedeschi divergono sempre più vistosamente da quelli della Ecb, e si potrebbe anche arrivare ad un punto di rottura, che i risultati elettorali potrebbe accelerare.

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««Effetto alluvione» in vista del voto del 26 settembre. Ma è il combinato di congestione sulla supply chain, rischio lockdown in Cina e nuova guidance sull’inflazione a mettere la Germania in allerta»

«Mentre la Bce tratteggia magnifiche sorti e progressive per il terzo trimestre di quest’anno e Mario Draghi invita gli italiani alla cautela sanitaria in vacanza, al fine di non intaccare un’economia che va addirittura meglio del previsto, dalla Germania arriva solo cauta attesa»

«Perché il tanto temuto effetto alluvione si è alla fine palesato sui sondaggi: stando all’ultima rilevazione Kantar per il settimanale Focus, infatti, le risate fuori luogo del candidato cancelliere della Cdu, Armin Laschet, avrebbero portato il distacco fra cristiano-democratici e Verdi a soli 2 punti»

«Il partito di Angela Merkel avrebbe perso 3 punti percentuali, attestandosi al 24%, mentre quello di Annalena Baerbock ne avrebbe guadagnati altrettanti, salendo al 22%. Sempre terza al 18% la Spd»

«E che la tensione stia salendo lo conferma anche la decisione della Commissione elettorale tedesca, la quale ha escluso i Verdi dalla possibilità di correre nel Land della Saarland per irregolarità nella scelta del candidato»

«Ma al netto delle dietrologie, la Germania sconta con almeno un trimestre di anticipo criticità che Bce e governo italiano paiono ignorare in vista dell’autunno»

«In primis, il possibile deterioramento delle condizioni già estreme sulla supply chain globale, già capaci di rallentare all’1,5% il Pil della locomotiva europea nel secondo trimestre contro attese del 2% e, soprattutto, infliggere una pesante battuta d’arresto alla produzione industriale»

«A fronte di prezzi già record per il trasporto merci via container»

«se il contagio dovesse invece portare a uno stop anche di terminal e hub di trasporto, l’autunno diventerebbe un incubo a livello di approvvigionamenti»

«Senza contare l’interscambio commerciale record fra Germania e Cina, il quale oggi – a livello di export teutonico – è ancora secondo in termini assoluti dopo quello con Washington ma ormai solo per 8 miliardi di controvalore, dopo aver polverizzato quello tra Berlino e Parigi»

«Berlino ragiona su questo»

«Bce, la quale, ottenuta la vittoria di Pirro della nuova guidance sull’inflazione, appare certa di aver vincolato la prosecuzione del Pepp – sotto altro nome e formula – fino al raggiungimento formale del 2% di inflazione»

«Bundesbank, il cui numero uno infatti ha platealmente e pubblicamente votato contro la politica di tassi a zero perenni implicita nel nuovo approccio monetario dell’Eurotower»

«Con l’intera curva dei rendimenti obbligazionari sovrani in negativo, Deutsche Bank ha calcolato la perdita di valore implicita per un Bund trentennale acquistato oggi in base al tasso di inflazione»

«Se già con un 1% la perdita sarebbe attorno al 25%, giungere al nuovo obiettivo Bce del 2% implicherebbe qualcosa come il 45%»

«La Germania stia pagando un pesante scotto all’inflazione energetica, sia a livello di costi dell’elettricità che del gas, quest’ultimo direttamente legato alla disputa geopolitica fra Ue e Russia e alla scelta di quest’ultima di inviare un segnale di minaccia tramite il dimezzamento dei flussi verso l’hub tedesco di Mallnow»

«Insomma, visto da Berlino il terzo trimestre del 2021 già oggi appare in netta antitesi con quello dalle mille tonalità di rosa tratteggiato da Christine Lagarde e Mario Draghi»

* * * * * * *


Tra Cdu e Verdi solo 2 punti. Draghi e Bce fanno i loro conti senza l’oste di Berlino?

«Effetto alluvione» in vista del voto del 26 settembre. Ma è il combinato di congestione sulla supply chain, rischio lockdown in Cina e nuova guidance sull’inflazione a mettere la Germania in allerta.

Berlino è silenziosa. Troppo. Mentre la Bce tratteggia magnifiche sorti e progressive per il terzo trimestre di quest’anno e Mario Draghi invita gli italiani alla cautela sanitaria in vacanza, al fine di non intaccare un’economia che va addirittura meglio del previsto, dalla Germania arriva solo cauta attesa. Elettorale.

Perché il tanto temuto effetto alluvione si è alla fine palesato sui sondaggi: stando all’ultima rilevazione Kantar per il settimanale Focus, infatti, le risate fuori luogo del candidato cancelliere della Cdu, Armin Laschet, avrebbero portato il distacco fra cristiano-democratici e Verdi a soli 2 punti. Il partito di Angela Merkel avrebbe perso 3 punti percentuali, attestandosi al 24%, mentre quello di Annalena Baerbock ne avrebbe guadagnati altrettanti, salendo al 22%. Sempre terza al 18% la Spd. E che la tensione stia salendo lo conferma anche la decisione della Commissione elettorale tedesca, la quale ha escluso i Verdi dalla possibilità di correre nel Land della Saarland per irregolarità nella scelta del candidato. Di fatto, un 1,3% degli aventi diritto totali al voto del 26 settembre cui gli ambientalisti dovranno giocoforza fare a meno.

A detta di molti, una decisione a orologeria. Ma al netto delle dietrologie, la Germania sconta con almeno un trimestre di anticipo criticità che Bce e governo italiano paiono ignorare in vista dell’autunno. In primis, il possibile deterioramento delle condizioni già estreme sulla supply chain globale, già capaci di rallentare all’1,5% il Pil della locomotiva europea nel secondo trimestre contro attese del 2% e, soprattutto, infliggere una pesante battuta d’arresto alla produzione industriale.

A fronte di prezzi già record per il trasporto merci via container, Goldman Sachs ritiene che l’attuale, nuova emergenza pandemica scoppiata in Cina possa ulteriormente esacerbare la situazione.

La quale, a livello di code in attesa per sdoganare e scaricare nei principali hub portuali, oggi è del 76% superiore alla media a 5 anni. E con 25 città in 10 province ritenute oggi a rischio medio-alto dalle autorità cinesi contro le 6 città nella sola Guangdong riferite ai focolai di maggio, il rischio è decisamente serio. Se da un lato, infatti, un lockdown limitato alle attività industriali e manifatturiere potrebbe far respirare i porti e diminuire i tassi di congestione, dall’altro se il contagio dovesse invece portare a uno stop anche di terminal e hub di trasporto, l’autunno diventerebbe un incubo a livello di approvvigionamenti. E prezzi, stante la necessità di ricostruire gli stock di magazzino andati bruciati dai consumi durante i periodi di fermo. Senza contare l’interscambio commerciale record fra Germania e Cina, il quale oggi – a livello di export teutonico – è ancora secondo in termini assoluti dopo quello con Washington ma ormai solo per 8 miliardi di controvalore, dopo aver polverizzato quello tra Berlino e Parigi.

Berlino ragiona su questo. E lo fa con un occhio ben spalancato sulla competizione elettorale e l’altro sulle mosse della Bce. La quale, ottenuta la vittoria di Pirro della nuova guidance sull’inflazione, appare certa di aver vincolato la prosecuzione del Pepp – sotto altro nome e formula – fino al raggiungimento formale del 2% di inflazione e il suo consolidamento fino all’over-shooting. Ma qualcosa comincia a fare male, dalle parti della Cancelleria. E della Bundesbank, il cui numero uno infatti ha platealmente e pubblicamente votato contro la politica di tassi a zero perenni implicita nel nuovo approccio monetario dell’Eurotower.

Le due facce della medaglia del frutto avvelenato di un Qe inteso ormai come perenne, alla luce di un’inflazione che in Germania a luglio è salita al 3,8% su base annua, il massimo dal 1993. Dopo i pessimi conti presentati da Commerzbank (secondo istituto dell’indice ma con un market cap di soli 6,4 miliardi) nell’ultima trimestrale, infatti, l’indice bancario tedesco è sceso sotto quota 100, addirittura un livello inferiore a quello toccato durante la crisi finanziaria del 2008-2009. Al netto delle mille criticità possibili nel comparto, a erodere profittabilità a tal punto da imporre costi accessori sui conti correnti più elevati in ammontare è il tasso negativo sui depositi deciso dalla Banca centrale europea, a cui il tiering introdotto nel 2019 sta letteralmente facendo il solletico.

Con l’intera curva dei rendimenti obbligazionari sovrani in negativo, Deutsche Bank ha calcolato la perdita di valore implicita per un Bund trentennale acquistato oggi in base al tasso di inflazione. Se già con un 1% la perdita sarebbe attorno al 25%, giungere al nuovo obiettivo Bce del 2% implicherebbe qualcosa come il 45%. Ingestibile sul lungo termine.

La Germania stia pagando un pesante scotto all’inflazione energetica, sia a livello di costi dell’elettricità che del gas, quest’ultimo direttamente legato alla disputa geopolitica fra Ue e Russia e alla scelta di quest’ultima di inviare un segnale di minaccia tramite il dimezzamento dei flussi verso l’hub tedesco di Mallnow. Ingestibile sul lungo termine.

Insomma, visto da Berlino il terzo trimestre del 2021 già oggi appare in netta antitesi con quello dalle mille tonalità di rosa tratteggiato da Christine Lagarde e Mario Draghi, al netto della variante Delta e dei suoi stop-and-go forzati. Ed essendo quei tre mesi gli stessi che porteranno il Paese al voto legislativo, a fronte di un vantaggio della Cdu praticamente finito sott’acqua con l’alluvione delle scorse settimane, è più che probabile che Jens Weidmann arrivi al board Bce del 9 settembre con un chiaro mandato politico di rinnovata intransigenza. Quantomeno, al fine di inviare un segnale a cittadini e aziende (banche in testa) rispetto alle reali priorità che si intende imporre all’agenda. Mario Draghi e Christine Lagarde, forti della nuova guidance e del sostegno della variante Delta al Pepp, stanno forse facendo i conti senza l’oste tedesco?

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Unione Europea. 2021Q2. Pil EU +2.0%, Pil eurozona +1.9% sul 2021Q1.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-01.

2021-08-01__ Eurostat PIL 001

Eurostat ha rilasciato il Report preliminare  GDP up by 2.0% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU.

Correttamente, l’Istituto di Statistica ha titolato con il confronto sul trimestre precedente.

Infatti, il Pil 2020Q2 era stato inusitatamente basso, motivo per cui il rapporto 2021Q2/2020Q2 è abnormemente alto.

* * * * * * *


Eurostat. GDP up by 2.0% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU.

Preliminary flash estimate for the second quarter of 2021. GDP up by 2.0% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU. +13.7% and +13.2% respectively compared with the second quarter of 2020.

* * *

In the second quarter 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 2.0% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU, compared with the previous quarter, according to a preliminary flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2021, GDP had declined by 0.3% in the euro area and 0.1% in the EU.

These preliminary GDP flash estimates are based on data sources that are incomplete and subject to further revisions.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 13.7% in the euro area and by 13.2% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, after -1.3% in both zones in the previous quarter.

Among the Member States for which data are available for the second quarter 2021, Portugal (+4.9%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Austria (+4.3%) and Latvia (+3.7%), while Lithuania (+0.4%) and Czechia (+0.6%) recorded the lowest increase. The year on year growth rates were positive for all countries.

Source dataset: namq_10_gdp

The next estimates for the second quarter of 2021 will be released on 17 August 2021.

Pubblicato in: Cina

Cina. 2021H1. Pil +12.7% sul 2020H1.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-01.

2021-08-01 __ Cina 001

Il National Bureau of Statistics of China ha rilasciato  il Report Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Second Quarter and the First Half Year of 2021.

«                       Basic Concepts.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) refers to the final products at market prices produced by all resident units in a country during a certain period of time. GDP is the core indicator of the national accounts, and also an important indicator to measure the economic conditions and the level of development of a country.

In the practice of national accounting, gross domestic product is calculated using three approaches, namely production approach, income approach and expenditure approach, which reflect gross domestic product and its composition from different angles. The production approach refers to remove the value of intermediate goods and services from the value of goods and services created in the production process, and to get the value-added. The accounting formula as follows: value-added = total output – intermediate inputs. The GDP by production approach is the sum of value-added by production approach of various industries of national economy. The income approach refers to accounting the production activities from the point of generating income during the production process. Under this accounting method, the sum of the value-added obtained from four parts: workers compensation, net taxes on production, depreciation of fixed assets and operating surplus. The accounting formula as follows: value-added = workers compensation + net taxes on production + depreciation of fixed assets + operating surplus. The GDP by income approach equals to the sum of value-added by income approach of various industries of national economy. GDP by expenditure approach refers to the method of measuring GDP from the perspective of the final uses of production activities. The final uses include final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation and net export of goods and services.

National Bureau of Statistics released quarterly GDP used the production method which based on the result of basic accounting.

                         Production Coverage.

Production range of GDP accounting includes the following four parts: first, the production of goods and services provided to or ready to provide to other units by the producers; second, self-sufficient production of goods for own final consumption or capital formation by the producers; third, self-sufficient production of knowledge carrier products for own final consumption or capital formation by the producers, excluding similar activities undertaken by the household sector; housing services; fourth, housing services provided by owner-occupied housing, as well as self-sufficient production of household and personal services provided by paid family service personnel. Production range does not include unpaid household and personal services, nor no units controlled natural activities (such as wild, non-cultivated forest, berries or wild berries natural growth, the natural growth of the number of fish in the public sea), etc.

                         Related Laws and Regulations.

GDP accounting was strictly complying with the provisions of the Statistics Law of the People’s Republic of China. At present, China’s GDP was measured in accordance with the requirements of the China’s System of National Accounts (CSNA) (2016), which has adopted the basic accounting principles, contents and methods of the United Nation’s System of National Accounts (SNA) 2008.»

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali

Italia. 2020. Pil -8.9%, Occupati -2.1%. – Istat.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-04.

2021-07-03__ Italia Pil 001

In sintesi:

– Nel 2020 il Prodotto interno lordo …. è diminuito a livello nazionale dell’8,9%.

– L’occupazione (misurata in termini di numero di occupati) è diminuita del 2,1% a livello nazionale

– Commercio, pubblici esercizi, trasporti e telecomunicazioni -12,2%.

* * * * * * *


Istat. Stima preliminare del Pil e dell’occupazione a livello territoriale

I dati presentati in questo Report forniscono una stima preliminare del Pil e dell’occupazione per ripartizione territoriale riferita all’anno 2020. I risultati scaturiscono da un approccio di stima econometrico basato su indicatori (cfr. Nota metodologica) e potrebbero pertanto essere soggetti a revisioni anche ampie.

                         Flessione dell’occupazione più contenuta al Centro

Nel 2020 il Prodotto interno lordo, misurato in volume, è diminuito a livello nazionale dell’8,9%. Le stime preliminari indicano che gli effetti della crisi sanitaria da Covid-19 hanno colpito in misura relativamente più accentuata le regioni del Centro-nord rispetto a quelle del Mezzogiorno.

Le regioni del Nord-est e del Nord-ovest hanno subito una contrazione lievemente superiore rispetto alla media nazionale (con un calo pari al 9,1% in entrambe le aree), mentre nelle regioni del Centro la flessione è stata dell’8,8%. Una riduzione meno marcata rispetto al resto del Paese si riscontra nel Mezzogiorno, dove il calo del Pil è dell’8,4%.

L’occupazione (misurata in termini di numero di occupati) è diminuita del 2,1% a livello nazionale. Nel Nord-ovest e nel Mezzogiorno si osserva una flessione pari alla media nazionale; solo lievemente migliore appare il risultato del Nord-est (-2,0%) e del Centro (-1,9%).

                         Commercio, pubblici esercizi e trasporti il settore più penalizzato

Nel Nord-ovest i settori caratterizzati dalle flessioni più marcate del valore aggiunto sono stati l’Industria, che con un calo dell’11,9% fa registrare la peggiore performance a livello territoriale, e il macrosettore Commercio, pubblici esercizi, trasporti e telecomunicazioni (-12,2%), che, al contrario, segna un risultato relativamente meno negativo rispetto al resto del Paese.

I Servizi finanziari, immobiliari e professionali (-5,8%) e gli Altri servizi (-5,8%) hanno subito flessioni leggermente superiori alla media nazionale, mentre per le Costruzioni il calo (-6,1%) è lievemente inferiore a quello nazionale (-6,3%). Nell’Agricoltura la flessione del valore aggiunto è stata del 3,6%, di gran lunga il risultato migliore tra tutte le macro-aree.

Nel Nord-est la crisi ha colpito pesantemente il Commercio, pubblici esercizi, trasporti e telecomunicazioni, che fa registrare la diminuzione più marcata a livello territoriale (-14,5%). La contrazione del valore aggiunto in Agricoltura (-6,0%) e nelle Costruzioni (-6,4%) è allineata alla media nazionale, mentre nell’Industria (-10,5%), nei Servizi finanziari, immobiliari e professionali (-5,1%) e negli Altri servizi (-5,0%) l’andamento risulta relativamente migliore che nel resto del Paese.

Anche al Centro, il settore che comprende Commercio, pubblici esercizi, trasporti e telecomunicazioni subisce un forte calo (-12,9%), seguito dall’Industria (-11,5%). Rispetto alle altre ripartizioni in quest’area si registrano le diminuzioni più marcate per l’Agricoltura (-9,3%) e le Costruzioni, (-6,9%). Risulta in flessione anche il valore aggiunto dei Servizi finanziari, immobiliari e professionali (-5,9%) e degli Altri servizi (-5,0%).

Il Mezzogiorno condivide col Nord-est la peggiore performance del settore del Commercio, pubblici esercizi, trasporti e telecomunicazioni (-14,5%) mentre l’Industria registra in quest’area la contrazione meno marcata (-9,9%). Fanno registrare un andamento meno negativo di quello medio nazionale i settori delle Costruzioni (-6,0%), dei Servizi finanziari, immobiliari e professionali (-5,1%) e degli Altri servizi (-5,2%).

Quanto all’occupazione, il settore delle Costruzioni, l’unico ad aver registrato un incremento a livello nazionale, ha segnato la crescita maggiore al Sud (+2,4%) e la performance peggiore al Centro, con una lievissima flessione (-0,1%).

L’occupazione in Agricoltura, a fronte di una tenuta complessiva, evidenzia il migliore risultato al Nord-ovest (+1,0%) e il peggiore al Sud (-0,5%) mentre l’Industria è stata particolarmente penalizzata nel Nord-ovest (-0,9%). La rilevante contrazione dell’occupazione nel Commercio, pubblici esercizi, trasporti e telecomunicazioni ha interessato tutte le aree in misura vicina alla media nazionale (-4,3%), con un picco negativo al Nord-est (-4,8%). I Servizi finanziari, immobiliari e professionali sono stati particolarmente colpiti al Nord-ovest (-2,5%) e gli Altri servizi nel Mezzogiorno (-2,3%).