Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Bundesbank. Corretti gli ‘errori’, la Germania è in depressione da un anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-08-21.

Gufo_019__

In Destatis, l’Istituto tedesco di statistica vi è stata di recente una epurazione degli elementi liberal. Non totale, ma ragionevole. Una volta eliminati i menzogneri costituzionali ed essendo la voce di Frau Merkel sempre più debole, inizia ad emergere anche nei documenti ufficiali quella realtà così a lungo negata.

Quanto emerso ha obbligato Deutsche Bundesbank a prendere posizione.

«The Federal Statistical Office has conducted an in-depth review of all national accounts calculations and rebased them to the reference year 2015. This has resulted in new rates of change for real GDP as a whole in specific periods. There have also been smaller revisions more recently.»

«Therefore, the quarter-on-quarter results for the first two quarters of 2018 were revised down. In the first quarter, growth consequently totalled 0.1% (down from 0.4%), while it amounted to 0.4% in the second quarter (after 0.5%).»

«The quarter-on-quarter results for the third and fourth quarters of 2018, by contrast, were corrected upwards. They were -0.1% in the third quarter (instead of -0.2%) and 0.2% in the fourth quarter (up from 0.0%).»

«The result for the first quarter of 2019 remained unchanged at 0.4% (all rates seasonally and calendar-adjusted).»

* * *

«Economic output in Germany dipped slightly in the second quarter of 2019. The Federal Statistical Office (also known as Destatis) announced that gross domestic product (GDP) – the value of all goods and services produced in Germany – fell by 0.1% in seasonally adjusted terms on the quarter»

«Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann described the recent slowdown as an economic “slump”»

«the weaknesses have so far been concentrated in industry and exports»

«Sales in construction and in the hotel and restaurant sector declined. Wholesale trade slid into the downturn afflicting industry»

«the downturn in industry accelerated somewhat due to a decrease in foreign demand. In particular, exports to the United Kingdom were weak in the second quarter »

«Meanwhile, the demand for cars, pent up by delivery bottlenecks last year, had largely been met at the start of 2019 and did not increase further in the second quarter»

«The Bundesbank economists write that this depressed private consumption»

«Demand also suffered from broad-based weakness. Against the backdrop of the sharp contraction in exports and ““in light of declining capacity utilisation and the subdued outlook for manufacturing, businesses probably held back on investing in new machinery and equipment,””»

«Economic activity could decline slightly again in the current quarter, the economists suggest»

«There are, they write, no signs yet of an end to the downturn in industry»

* * * * * * *

Mala tempora currunt sed peiora parantur.

Le pesate parole di Cicerone suonano davvero come macigni.

Entrata in depressione, Bundesbank ne prognostica una lunga durata.

Questi dati emergenti suggeriscono che i piani del Governo tedesco, massimamente quelli sul ‘clima’, non troveranno risorse per essere finanziati.

Frau Merkel prese nel 2005 la Cdu al 46% e la ha ridotta al 26%.

Aveva preso una Germania economicamente prospera e la ha portata alla depressione.

«Le femmine stanno benissimo nella dirigenza degli avversari», come disse Mr Putin.


Deutsche Bundesbank. 2019-08-19. Monthly Report: Industry and exports responsible for economic slowdown

Economic output in Germany dipped slightly in the second quarter of 2019. The Federal Statistical Office (also known as Destatis) announced that gross domestic product (GDP) – the value of all goods and services produced in Germany – fell by 0.1% in seasonally adjusted terms on the quarter. At the start of 2019, the German economy was still showing growth of 0.4%. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann described the recent slowdown as an economic “slump”. ““The domestic economy is still doing well; the weaknesses have so far been concentrated in industry and exports. International trade disputes and Brexit are important reasons behind this,”” Mr Weidmann said. The Bundesbank’s current Monthly Report states that the slight economic slowdown affected many sectors in Germany: “Sales in construction and in the hotel and restaurant sector declined. Wholesale trade slid into the downturn afflicting industry”, the Bank’s economists write. Only retail trade as well as some other services sectors are likely to have provided positive momentum.

One-off effects had a dampening effect.

In the report, Bundesbank experts examine the causes of the GDP contraction in detail, and point out that the downturn in industry accelerated somewhat due to a decrease in foreign demand. In particular, exports to the United Kingdom were weak in the second quarter. A contributing factor to this, according to the Bundesbank’s economists, was the original Brexit date scheduled for the end of March. This resulted in substantial stockpiling in the United Kingdom over the winter months. This led to a countermovement in the second quarter. Furthermore, one-off effects that had supported economic activity in the first quarter had a distinctly dampening effect on the still intact domestic expansionary forces. Construction output declined steeply after posting a sharp increase during the first quarter due to favourable weather conditions. Meanwhile, the demand for cars, pent up by delivery bottlenecks last year, had largely been met at the start of 2019 and did not increase further in the second quarter. The Bundesbank economists write that this depressed private consumption.

Businesses likely held back on investing.

Demand also suffered from broad-based weakness. Against the backdrop of the sharp contraction in exports and ““in light of declining capacity utilisation and the subdued outlook for manufacturing, businesses probably held back on investing in new machinery and equipment,”” the Bundesbank’s experts write in their report. They point out that construction investment also fell. Private consumption is not likely to have exceeded the level of the strong preceding quarter by much. Government consumption may have provided the only meaningful boost to economic activity.

Economic activity could decline slightly again in the current quarter, the economists suggest. There are, they write, no signs yet of an end to the downturn in industry, adding: ““This could also gradually start to weigh on a number of services sectors.” “Leading labour market indicators painted a mixed picture. Industry further scaled back its hiring plans. By contrast, in the services sectors, except the wholesale and retail trade, and in construction, positive employment plans dominated.

Previous quarters revised.

The Federal Statistical Office has conducted an in-depth review of all national accounts calculations and rebased them to the reference year 2015. This has resulted in new rates of change for real GDP as a whole in specific periods. There have also been smaller revisions more recently. Therefore, the quarter-on-quarter results for the first two quarters of 2018 were revised down. In the first quarter, growth consequently totalled 0.1% (down from 0.4%), while it amounted to 0.4% in the second quarter (after 0.5%). The quarter-on-quarter results for the third and fourth quarters of 2018, by contrast, were corrected upwards. They were -0.1% in the third quarter (instead of -0.2%) and 0.2% in the fourth quarter (up from 0.0%). The result for the first quarter of 2019 remained unchanged at 0.4% (all rates seasonally and calendar-adjusted).

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Italia. Il problema del pil. Stagnazione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-08-12.

2019-08-07__Italia_Pil__001

L’Istat ha rilasciato il Report: Preliminary Estimate of GDP.

Cerchiamo innanzitutto di definire alcuni termini.

Prodotto Interno Lordo (Pil).

«Il PIL misura il risultato finale dell’attività produttiva dei residenti di un Paese in un dato periodo. La nozione di ‘prodotto’ è riferita ai beni e servizi che hanno una valorizzazione in un processo di scambio; sono quindi escluse dal PIL le prestazioni a titolo gratuito o l’autoconsumo. Il termine ‘interno’ indica che tale variabile comprende le attività economiche svolte all’interno del Paese; sono dunque esclusi i beni e servizi prodotti dagli operatori nazionali, imprese e lavoratori all’estero, mentre sono inclusi i prodotti realizzati da operatori esteri all’interno del Paese. Escludendo la produzione all’interno del Paese da parte degli operatori esteri, e aggiungendo quella all’estero degli operatori nazionali, si ottiene il PNL (Prodotto Nazionale Lordo). Il termine ‘lordo’ indica che il valore della produzione è al lordo degli ammortamenti, ovvero del deprezzamento dello stock di capitale fisico intervenuto nel periodo; questo comporta che, per non ridurre tale grandezza a disposizione del sistema, parte del prodotto deve essere destinata al suo reintegro. Sottraendo dal PIL gli ammortamenti, si ottiene il PIN (Prodotto Interno Netto).»

*

Stagnazione.

«Nel linguaggio economico, condizione in cui produzione e reddito nazionale restano immobili, senza aumentare né diminuire. Se relativa a un periodo prolungato, individua una fase di progressiva contrazione della crescita economica»

*

Recessione.

«Periodo di tempo, non inferiore ai sei mesi, durante il quale l’attività economica si riduce, il livello del reddito reale scende, cala l’occupazione e aumenta la disoccupazione …. caratterizzata da livelli di attività produttiva (PIL) più bassi di quelli che si potrebbero ottenere usando completamente ed in maniera efficiente tutti i fattori produttivi a disposizione»

*

Depressione.

«In economia, la fase discendente del ciclo economico (detta anche, con termine inglese, slump, mentre se non è molto accentuata prende il nome di recessione), che segue alla crisi ed è caratterizzata da ristagno negli affari, discesa dei prezzi, liquidazioni, fallimenti, disoccupazione; anche, la situazione di un paese o di una regione in cui il livello dell’attività economica appaia inferiore a quello di altri periodi o a quello di altri paesi o regioni nello stesso periodo»

* * * * * * *

2019-08-07__Italia_Pil__002

Chiariamo immediatamente un concetto.

Anche se gli economisti fanno finta di nulla, il pil è un indice che è affetto da un suo proprio errore di determinazione, usualmente stimabile attorno a valore di ±0.25. In pratica, valori, per esempio, di 2.5 e 2.9 giacciono nella stessa banda di errore sperimentale.

*

Dal 2015, le variazioni trimestre su trimestre non sono significativamente differenti.

Infatti, il pil del 2015 Q1 era 387.031 miliardi e nel 2019 Q2 era 403.785 miliardi.

I dati della produzione industriale sono anche essi sostanzialmente giacenti nella fascia di errore. Tenendo conto dell’errore di rilevamento, 104.9 non differisce significativamente da 105.6.

*

Concludendo, sono cinque anni che l’economia italiana stagna.

Dovrebbe essere semplicemente evidente come l’attuale assetto produttivo sia inefficiente.

Ma senza rimettere in moto il comparto produttivo, alla fine non ci saranno più risorse neppure per cercare di alleviare le situazioni più dolorose.

L’Italia sta mangiandosi le sementi, ma queste non son certo infinite.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Stati Uniti, Trump

Usa. Pil Q2 +2.1%, contro il +1.8% previsto.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-07-28.

2019-07-28__Usa_Pil__001

Il Bureau of Economic Analysis ha rilasciato i dati trimestrali del pil americano.

l Prodotto Interno Lordo (PIL) è la misura più ampia di attività economica ed è un indicatore chiave dello stato di salute di un’economia.

La variazione annualizzata (variazione trimestrale x 4) in percentuale del PIL mostra il tasso di crescita dell’economia nel suo complesso.

Il consumo è di gran lunga la maggiore componente del PIL degli Stati Uniti ed ha il maggiore impatto su di esso.

Su base trimestrale i dati possono essere molto volatili.

Dati superiori al previsto devono essere interpretati come positivi/rialzisti per il dollaro USA (USD), mentre valori inferiori alle attese sono da interpretarsi in senso negativo/ribassista per il dollaro USA.

2019-07-28__Usa_Pil__002

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica America Latina.

Bolivia. Un paese in crescita, da tenersi d’occhio.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-07-28.

2019-07-23__Bolivia__001

«Bolivia, is a country located at South America, it has an area of 1,098,580 Km2, and it may be considered a large country.

Bolivia, with a population of 11,353,142 people, it is ranked at 80º position by population of 196 countries and it has a low population density, 10 people per km2.

The capital is Sucre and its currency is Bolivians

Bolivia is holding the 95 position by nominal GDP. Its national debt in 2017 was 19,377 millions of dollars, ( 50.89% debt-to-GDP ratio) and its public debt per capita is 1,731$ dollars per inhabitant.»

*


Bolivia: GDP increases 4.2%

Gross Domestic Product of Bolivia grew 4.2% in 2018 compared to last year This rate is the same than the previous year.

The GDP figure in 2018 was $40,288 million, Bolivia is number 95 in the ranking of GDP of the 196 countries that we publish. The absolute value of GDP in Bolivia rose $2,230 million with respect to 2017.

The GDP per capita of Bolivia in 2018 was $3,549, $149 less than in 2017, when it was $3,400. To view the evolution of the GDP per capita, it is interesting to look back a few years and compare these data with those of 2008 when the GDP per capita in Bolivia was $1,695.

If we order the countries according to their GDP per capita, Bolivia is in 124th position, its population has a low level of affluence compare tothe 196 countries whose GDP we publish.

Here we show you the progression of the GDP in Bolivia. You can see GDP in other countries in GDP and see all the economic information about Bolivia in Bolivia’s economy.

*

Quindici anni or sono, nel 2003, la Bolivia aveva un pil di 8.092 miliardi Usd, con un pil procapite di 918 Usd.

Quindici anni dopo il pil era cresciuto a 40.288 miliardi ed il pil procapite a 3,549 Usd.

Il debito pubblico è al 50%, in gran parte contratto per allestire opere infrastrutturali.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti, Trump

USA. Primo Trimestre. Pil cresce del +3.2%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-04-27.

White House Gatto 001

«During the three-month period from January to March, the GDP rose at a 3.2 percent annualized rate, beating most analysts’ expectations of 2.5 percent»

*

«It also bested GDPNow, a real-time tracker monitored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which lowered its forecast to 2.7 percent this week because of weakness in existing-home sales and a drop in residential investment growth»

*

«But despite the better-than-expected figure, some analysts suggested the U.S. economy will still decelerate in 2019 and 2020»

* * * * * * *

Per comparazione, l’eurozona nel primo trimestre evidenzia una variazione del pil dello +0.2%.

A questo punto dovrebbe sorgere spontanea la domanda del perché mai il sistema economico americano cresca più che bene mentre quello dell’eurozona stia stagnando.

Cercare di capire perché gli altri facciano meglio di noi, e cercare quindi di imitarli, sembrerebbe essere un ragionamento di buon senso.


Fox Business. 2019-04-26. US economic growth rebounds at 3.2 percent pace in first quarter

The U.S. economy grew more quickly than most economists expected during the first quarter of 2019, according to data released Friday by the Commerce Department.

During the three-month period from January to March, the GDP rose at a 3.2 percent annualized rate, beating most analysts’ expectations of 2.5 percent.

It also bested GDPNow, a real-time tracker monitored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which lowered its forecast to 2.7 percent this week because of weakness in existing-home sales and a drop in residential investment growth.

The economy largely shook off the effects of a five-week long government shutdown — the longest in U.S. history — that White House officials once warned could result in near-zero growth. The standoff was a result of a feud between President Trump and Democratic congressional leaders over funding for a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border.

Disposable income rose $116 billion, or 3 percent, in the first quarter. Overall prices 0.8 percent.

Investors were closely watching the report’s release for signs to dismiss fears of an impending economic recession. Stocks rose on the better-than-expected results in pre-market trading.

We started 2019 with fears that the longest government shutdown in history, along with a softening global growth outlook, would weigh on economic activity in the first quarter,” Michael Reynolds, an investment strategy officer at Glenmede said. “3.2 percent growth is a solid result, suggesting this long, late-stage expansion may be more resilient than feared.

But despite the better-than-expected figure, some analysts suggested the U.S. economy will still decelerate in 2019 and 2020. Although inventories were high — boosting the growth number — Agathe Demarais, the global forecasting director at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said it’s likely to become a drag on growth soon.

Demarais estimated that growth in 2019 will stand at 2.2 percent — a sharp fall from 2.9 percent in 2018. She attributed part of that to the effects of global trade tensions. In 2020, she said growth is expected to fall to 1.7 percent amid softening consumer demand and a less supportive external environment.

“Against this backdrop, we expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates stable this year before cutting rates by 50 basis points in 2020,” she said. “This path for monetary policy will cushion growth in 2019 to 2020 and help to guard against a sharper downturn in US economic conditions.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Italia. Numeri del malgoverno passato.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-03-27.

2019-03-23__Italia__Pil__001

Gli alberi si giudicano dai frutti che danno.

I frutti diventano meglio visibili quando i dati sono espressi in dollari americani, valuta di riferimento a livello mondiale.

Nel 2008 il pil era 2,402 miliardi Usd ed a fine 2018 era 2,071 miliardi Usd.

Nel corso del 2018 il pil è rimasto praticamente fermo.

* * * * * * *

Si faccia attenzione. Riportare il pil nella valuta locale può giocare brutti scherzi.

Se valutato in bolivar, il pil venezuelano è cresciuto di migliaia di volte nel corso degli ultimi anni, ma se riportato in dollari americani è crollato. Non era crescita, ma semplice deprezzamento del bolivar.

* * * * * * *

«nel ventennio 1999-2018 il tasso medio di crescita dell’Italia (+0,4%) è stato paria circa un quarto della media dell’Ue (+1,6%), di Francia (+1,5%) e Germania (+1,4%) e un quinto di Spagna (+2%) e Regno Unito (+1,9%)»

*

«il Pil pro capite e i consumi trasformati in standard di potere d’acquisto (Spa): in questo caso emerge un peggioramento della posizione dell’Italia (96% rispetto alla  media Ue), con la sola Spagna (91,6%) a segnare una performance peggiore, mentre la migliore è la Germania  (123,5%).»

*

«con la crescita degli ultimi anni (+946.000 nel 2013-2018) ha recuperato quasi interamente il numero di occupati persi durante la crisi (circa un milione di occupati in meno), mentre Germania e Regno Unito hanno registrato un incremento dei posti di lavoro di oltre il 10% dal 2007 ad  oggi»

*

«Confcommercio ha tagliato stime di crescita per il 2019, da +1% a +0,3%, mentre nel 2020 è atteso un aumento dello 0,5%»

*

«Con l’aumento dell’Iva sono attese più tasse per 382 euro a  testa e 889 euro a famiglia»

* * * * * * *

La persona media non è tenuta a seguire con costanza gli indicatori econometrici. E non è nemmeno tenuta a conoscere che questi indicatori rappresentino nella realtà dei fatti: la persona media sgobba da mattino a sera a lavorare per mantenere sé stessa e la famiglia.

Ma la persona media è quella che ha un ben preciso quadro della situazione economica andando a fare la spesa al mercato, pigliando il biglietto dell’autobus, facendo la coda per potersi prenotare una visita medica oppure gli esami indicati per la sua salute.

Poi, spesso, la persona media durante le ferie visita paesi stranieri, ed inizia così a fare dei paragoni.

La palude economica non è una maledizione divina oppure una catastrofe naturale: è solo il frutto di un continuo malgoverno.

Né ci si illuda: proprio per nulla.

Il cambio di governo inverte spesso la tendenza, ma gli effetti della precedente incuria tendono a perdurare a lungo nel tempo. Nessun nuovo governo ha la bacchetta magica.


Trend On Line. 2019-03-22. L’Italia è cresciuta quattro volte meno della media Ue

Negli ultimi vent’anni la crescita nell’Ue e nell’Unione economica e monetaria ha subito un costante e progressivo rallentamento, senza variazioni significative dei divari tra  tassi medi di incremento del Pil relativi ai singoli Paesi  membri e/o alle aree.

In altre parole, le nazioni caratterizzate da dinamiche meno elevate, tendono a patire in modo costante il distacco dalle economie più vivaci. Un Paese che manifesta una strutturale differenza negativa nei  tassi di crescita è l’Italia. E’ quanto si legge nel rapporto L’euro compie vent’anni, stilato dall’Ufficio Studi  Confcommercio e presentato in apertura del Forum di Cernobbio, dal quale emerge che nel ventennio 1999-2018 il tasso medio di crescita dell’Italia (+0,4%) è stato paria circa un quarto della media dell’Ue (+1,6%), di Francia (+1,5%) e Germania (+1,4%) e un quinto di Spagna (+2%) e Regno Unito (+1,9%) .

Un confronto significativo si può fare usando il Pil pro capite e i consumi trasformati in standard di potere d’acquisto (Spa): in questo caso emerge un peggioramento della posizione dell’Italia (96% rispetto alla  media Ue), con la sola Spagna (91,6%) a segnare una performance peggiore, mentre la migliore è la Germania  (123,5%). Una nota positiva per il nostro Paese è che i consumi privati hanno evidenziato una migliore tenuta negli anni della prolungata crisi. Per quanto riguarda l’occupazione, nel 2018 l’Ue contava 239 milioni di occupati, di cui 158,2 milioni nell’Uem. Rispetto al 2013, nel periodo della crisi finanziaria ed economica, quando è stato toccato  il minimo, l’occupazione nel 2018 è aumentata di 14,6 milioni nei Paesi Ue, di cui 9,3 milioni nella zona euro .

L’Italia, con la crescita degli ultimi anni (+946.000 nel 2013-2018) ha recuperato quasi interamente il numero di occupati persi durante la crisi (circa un milione di occupati in meno), mentre Germania e Regno Unito hanno registrato un incremento dei posti di lavoro di oltre il 10% dal 2007 ad  oggi, così come tutti i Paesi del gruppo Nord-Europa (in particolare Lussemburgo, Svezia e Austria). Dal 2013 il tasso di occupazione europeo ha iniziato una lenta risalita (nel 2018 media del 73% nella fascia 20-64 anni, con un obiettivo  del 75% nel 2020), ma l’Italia è penultima con il 62,9%, seguita solo dalla Grecia con il 59,4% .

Per quanto riguarda infine la stretta attualità, Confcommercio ha tagliato stime di crescita per il 2019, da +1% a +0,3%, mentre nel 2020 è atteso un aumento dello 0,5% , ma solo con l’ipotesi di totale disinnesco delle clausole di salvaguardia sull’Iva  (costo operazione stimato a 23,1 miliardi di euro). Con l’aumento dell’Iva sono attese più tasse per 382 euro a  testa e 889 euro a famiglia.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Germania. Verso una stagnazione irreversibile. I numeri.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-03-08.

2019-03-08__Germania__001

2019-03-08__Germania__002

German Trade Surplus Narrows in August

«The German trade surplus decreased to EUR 17.2 billion in August 2018 from EUR 20.0 billion in the same month a year earlier, as exports rose by 2.2 percent to EUR 105.2 billion, while imports increased at a faster 6.2 percent to EUR 88.1 billion.»

German Trade Surplus Narrows in September

«The German trade surplus decreased to EUR 18.4 billion in September 2018 from EUR 24.2 billion in the same month a year earlier, as imports rose by 5.3 percent to EUR 90.7 billion, while exports fell 1.2 percent to EUR 109.1 billion. »

German Trade Surplus Narrows in October

«The German trade surplus decreased to EUR 18.3 billion in October 2018 from EUR 19.1 billion in the same month a year earlier.»

German Trade Surplus Narrows in November

«The German trade surplus decreased to EUR 20.5 billion in November 2018 from EUR 23.8 billion in the same month a year earlier, as imports rose 3.6 percent while exports were nearly unchanged.»

* * *

2019-03-08__Germania__003

2019-03-08__Germania__004

«In April 2018, the German government had predicted economic growth of 2.3 percent»

*

«In October, Berlin reduced its growth forecast to 1.8 percent.»

*

«Germany cuts GDP growth forecast for 2018, sees up to 1.6 percent»

*

È molto facile rilasciare comunicati altisonanti. Ma tra il dire ed il fare c’è di mezzo il mare e, talora, l’oceano.

La Germania sta arenandosi: al di là dello stretto significato tecnico, la Germania è in stagnazione.

Il suo comparto automobilistico sta morendo sotto leggi e regolamenti votati dal governo Merkel, così come il comparto energetico. La crisi demografica la sta stritolando.

L’ubbia delle alternative presenta costi non sostenibili.

Germania. I tedeschi iniziano a fare qualche conto.

Industria automobilistica. Potrebbe lasciare a breve la Germania.

«The German trade surplus decreased to EUR 13.9 billion in December 2018 from EUR 18.4 billion in the same month a year earlier. It was the smallest trade surplus since January 2016, mainly due to a sharp decline in exports. Balance of Trade in Germany averaged 5223.57 EUR Million from 1950 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 25455.63 EUR Million in March of 2016 and a record low of -535.91 EUR Million in April of 1991. ….

The German trade surplus decreased to EUR 13.9 billion in December 2018 from EUR 18.4 billion in the same month a year earlier. It was the smallest trade surplus since January 2016, mainly due to a sharp decline in exports.

Exports slumped 4.5 percent from a year earlier to EUR 96.1 billion in December, as sales to the EU declined 4.6 percent to EUR 55.2 billion, in particular Euro area (-4.1 percent to EUR 35.3 percent) and non-Euro area countries (-5.5 percent to EUR 19.9 percent). In addition, exports to countries outside the EU dropped 4.3 percent to EUR 40.9 billion.

Meanwhile, imports were nearly unchanged at EUR 82.1 billion. Purchases from the EU went up 1.2 percent to EUR 47.3 billion, driven by imports from the Euro area (3 percent to EUR 31.4 billion) while there were declines in imports from non-Euro area countries (-2.1 percent to EUR 15.9 billion). Also, imports from countries outside the EU fell 1.6 percent to EUR 34.8 billion. ….

Considering 2018 full year, the trade surplus narrowed to EUR 227.8 billion from EUR 247.9 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year.» [Fonte]

*

Per dirla in termini politicamente corretti, la Germani potrà – forse – cercare di riprendersi quando Frau Merkel si sarà pienamente ritirata, non presentando alle prossime elezioni.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Unione Europea risultato di una dirigenza inetta. I numeri della débâcle.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-03-08.

2019-03-05__Eurozona__Gdp__001

Il Wall Street Journal è lapidario nella constatazione dei fatti.

«the European Commission cut the 2019 eurozone growth forecast from an already anemic 1.9% to 1.3%. Economic output in the eurozone was lower in 2017 than it was in 2009; over that same period, gross domestic product grew 139% in China, 96% in India, and 34% in the U.S.».

La colpa di un simile disastro è da imputarsi in toto all’attuale dirigenza.

Mr Hollande, Mr Macron, Frau Merkel, Mr Renzi, Mr Gentiloni, Herr Rutte come capi di stato, Mr Juncker, Mr Tusk, Mr Oettinger, Mr Moscovici come eurocrati.

Sono dei falliti che hanno trascinato l’Europa al fallimento.

Ma il Wall Street Journal è stato ancora con la mano leggera.

Se invece del 2009 avesse optato per il 2008, i dati sarebbero stati ben peggiori.

Nel 2008 il pil dell’eurozona era 14,113.094 miliardi Usd, ed a fine 2017 era 12,589.880 miliardi.

Similmente, il pil procapite è crollato da 42,770 Usd a 36,670 Usd.

Riassumendo: il pil è sceso di 1,523.21 miliardi Usd ed il pil procapite di 6,100 Usd.

Tutto il mondo ha progredito tranne che l’eurozona, che invece è regredita.

Ripetiamo solo per chiarezza: la colpa di un simile disastro è da imputarsi in toto all’attuale dirigenza. Scomparire sarà l’unica cosa decente che abbiano fatto.

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«decline of Europe as a force in world affairs»

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«The Continent’s Grand Unity Project Is Failing»

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«As its economy lags behind, Europe is becoming more divided politically»

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«A recent report from the European Council on Foreign Relations projects that anti-EU parties from the right and left are on course to control enough seats in the near European Parliament that they will be able to disrupt the EU and weaken it further»

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«two factors contributed to the continent’s geopolitical decline in the 20th century»

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«One was inevitable the wealth gap between Europe and the rest of the world necessarily narrowed»

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«The second factor in Europe’s decline was internal division and nationalistic animosity»

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«The Euro was both an economic and political failure; and, diplomatic unity remains a distant dream»

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«China takes Japan and India more seriously than it takes the EU»

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«Leaders in France and Germany remain firmly committed to the European project, but with Britain on the brink of secession, Italy and Poland mutinous, and Hungary left defiant, the outlook is dimming»

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«forced harmonization is engendering: distrust, resentment, ridicule, contempt and even hatred, amongst and between the people’s of the European continent»

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«We have an elitist, bureaucratic, corrupt, authoritarian, repressive institution and leadership on one side and, a demoralized, lost generation of youth who see an “unaccountable, undemocratic, illegitimate and ultimately repressive super-state” that is digging Europe and themselves into an even deeper hole»

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«A country and its citizens cannot subordinate its sovereignty to an unaccountable, sclerotic, bloated bureaucratic entity in Brussels»

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«That is why Brexit passed; and, a vibrant, continent-wide nationalist movement took hold»

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«The demise of the EU and the Euro as currently conceived; and it is only a matter of when, not if»

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È veramente molto difficile non essere di accordo con il Wall Street Journal quando dice:

«A country and its citizens cannot subordinate its sovereignty to an unaccountable, sclerotic, bloated bureaucratic entity in Brussels»


WSJ. 2019-02-25. Incredible Shrinking Europe

«Last week offered fresh evidence that the most consequential historical shift of the last 100 years continues: the decline of Europe as a force in world affairs. As Deutsche Bank warned of a German recession, the European Commission cut the 2019 eurozone growth forecast from an already anemic 1.9% to 1.3%. Economic output in the eurozone was lower in 2017 than it was in 2009; over that same period, gross domestic product grew 139% in China, 96% in India, and 34% in the U.S., according to the World Bank.»


Fortuna’s Corner. 2019-02-25. Incredible Shrinking Europe: The Continent’s Grand Unity Project Is Failing; And Its Global Influence Is Fading;”The Rotten Heart Of Europe”

Incredible Shrinking Europe: The Continent’s Grand Unity Project Is Failing; And Its Global Influence Is Fading;”The Rotten Heart Of Europe”.

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The title above comes from an Op-Ed in today’s (Feb. 12, 2019) Wall Street Journal (WSJ) by Walter Russell Mead. According to his Wikipedia biography, Mr. Mead is the James Clarke Chace Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College; and, previously taught foreign affairs at Yale University. He is also Editor-At-Large of The American Interest Magazine, and a columnist for the WSJ.

Mr. Mead begins, “Last week offered fresh evidence that the most consequential historical shift of the last 100 years continues: the decline of Europe as a force in world affairs. As Deutsche Bank warned of a German recession, the European Commission cut the 2019 Eurozone growth forecast from an already anemic 1.9 percent, to 1.2 percent. Economic output in the Eurozone was lower in 2017 than it was on 2009.” “Over that same period, gross domestic product grew 129 percent in China, 96 percent in India, and 34 percent in the U.S.,” according to the World Bank.

“As its economy lags behind, Europe is becoming more divided politically,” Professor Mead reminds us. “Brexit negotiations have inflamed tempers on both sides of the English Channel; Central European Countries like Hungary and Poland are alienated from the West; much of Southern Europe remains bitter about the aftermath of the Euro crisis; and the EU political parties continue to gain support across the bloc. A recent report from the European Council on Foreign Relations projects that anti-EU parties from the right and left are on course to control enough seats in the near European Parliament that they will be able to disrupt the EU and weaken it further. This wasn’t supposed to happen,” Mr. Mead notes. “The EU was founded to stop Europe’s decline, not reflect it.” Though to be fair, the EU was also formed in part because the continent had germinated two world wars; and, no one wanted a third.

“As Europe’s founders saw it, two factors contributed to the continent’s geopolitical decline in the 20th century,” Mr. Mead writes. “One was inevitable,” he contends, “as technologies of the industrial heartland spread to Asia and the Americas; the wealth gap between Europe and the rest of the world necessarily narrowed. The diffusion of medical innovations — which also often originated in Europe — contributed to population explosions in the rest of the world. Meanwhile, Europe, the first continent to industrialize, was the first to experience decline in its birthrates associated with urbanization and affluence.”

“The second factor in Europe’s decline was internal division and nationalistic animosity,” Mr. Mead wrote. “This was the problem the EU’s founders sought to cure. Two world wars left much of Europe impoverished and in ruins. If the Continent could unify under a single set of values and political institutions, future wars could be averted. The unification policies began with Franco-German reconciliation after World War II. As the Cold war ended, and Germany was reunified, European leaders launched an ambitious program to broaden and deepen transnational cooperation.

“The union would expand to the east,” Professor Mead wrote, securing democracy in the former Warsaw Pact countries. Economic cooperation would deepen with the development of a single market, the establishment of a common currency, and the adoption of common economic principals. Diplomatically, the Europeans would seek a unified front in their dealings with the outside world. Building a new Europe that could compete on equal terms with the United States and China in a post-Cold War world is Europe’s overarching goal.”

“It’s become increasingly apparent that this grand project is failing,” Professor Mead argues. “An uneven; and perhaps overambitious expansion weakened — rather than strengthened the EU. The Euro was both an economic and political failure; and, diplomatic unity remains a distant dream.”

“Neighbors like Russia, Turkey, Israel, and the Arab states flout the EU’s wishes at will,” Professor Mead wrote. “European influence in Washington, already declining in the Obama years, has reached a nadir under POTUS Trump. Neither Moscow, nor Washington showed much regard for Europe’s interests when suspending the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which limits missile deployments in Europe. China takes Japan and India more seriously than it takes the EU; and, neither the U.S. nor China has been particularly concerned about what Europeans think, as they negotiate bilateral trade agreements that may redefine the world trade system.”

“One European initiative did work,” Professor Mead notes: “the single market. Europe remains formidable as a consumer bloc, and the EU’s ability to regulate the conditions under which foreign companies like Google and Gazprom operate inside its wealthy market is the most important card in its hand.”

“Leaders in France and Germany remain firmly committed to the European project, but with Britain on the brink of secession, Italy and Poland mutinous, and Hungary left defiant, the outlook is dimming,” Professor Mead observes. “if Paris and Berlin could devise a program to reignite European growth, secure its frontiers, and satisfy the nationalist emotions now ruling the bloc, Europe could arrest its decline. So far at least, such an outcome seems unlikely.” he notes.

“Some on the nationalist right in the U.S. welcome Europe’s demise,” Professor Mead wrote. “This is a mistake. A strong Europe, even if it is sometimes cantankerous and disagreeable, is better for the U.S. than a weak Europe — that can neither secure its own neighborhood, nor contribute to global stability. But, the U.S. must deal with the Europe we have; and, the Europe we have….isn’t doing well,” Professor Mead concludes.

Bernard Connolly, Author Of “The Rotten Heart Of Europe: The Dirty War For Europe’s Money”

I have felt from the beginning that the European Union and the Euro. as currently conceived — was doomed to failure. I wonder what took Mr. Mead so long, as I deeply respect his intellect and grasp of history.  In 2014, Rick Santelli of CNBC had a fascinating and thought provoking interview with Bernard Connolly. Mr. Connolly an Oxford educated British economist who is known for his pessimistic outlook for the Euro and the European Monetary Union, provided a sobering but thoughtful assessment of the European Union.

Mr. Connolly’s book, “The Rotten Heart of Europe: The Dirty War For Europe’s Money,” is a sobering, but realistic assessment of the consequences and pitfalls that plague the Eurozone — as a consequence of pursuing a continent-wide monetary union. And Mr. Connolly should know, he was there for the “birth” of the Euro and was partly responsible for where Europe is today. Depression and recession are widespread across the continent as toxic nationalism and profound unemployment — especially among the youth are pervasive.

Mr. Connolly contends that the monetary union — which is at the heart of this grand Euro experiment — is rotten at its core. Indeed, Mr. Connolly contends that this destructive pursuit is making the economic situation in Europe worse than it would otherwise be; and, this “forced harmonization” is engendering “distrust, resentment, ridicule, contempt and even hatred,” amongst and between the people’s of the European continent. Yet Mr. Connolly notes, “the people who put this together (some of whom are in leadership positions today) hail the EURO and EU as a success.” “They call Spain a success and they have 27% unemployment. Greece is called exceptional; and yet, youth unemployment there is a staggering 67%.” He calls this belief in the promise of a monetary union either crazy or disturbing. Those who originally proposed a European Union thought this was the path to prevent a third European civil war. The reality Mr. Connolly says, is a reversal of the post-WWII economic revival. “We have an elitist, bureaucratic, corrupt, authoritarian, repressive institution and leadership on one side and, a demoralized, lost generation of youth who see an “unaccountable, undemocratic, illegitimate and ultimately repressive super-state” that is digging Europe and themselves into an even deeper hole. Not surprisingly, he sees ultimate failure for the European Union and even disaster, the longer those in charge in Europe pursue this feckless endeavor. A deadly cocktail of unintended consequences. You may or may not agree with Mr. Connolly; but, it is hard to dismiss, or ignore him and his thesis — would be a failure itself.

Divorcing oneself from this unworkable union will not solve Europe’s economic woes — not by a long shot. Over-excessive and oppressive regulation, onerous taxation, and the migrant crisis will still haunt the continent. But, being miserable in one’s own country is more tolerable that being miserable for some disconnected, faceless entity.

POTUS Obama and his national security team were on the wrong side of history. A country and its citizens cannot subordinate its sovereignty to an unaccountable, sclerotic, bloated bureaucratic entity in Brussels. That is why Brexit passed; and, a vibrant, continent-wide nationalist movement took hold.  The demise of the EU and the Euro as currently conceived — is doomed to failure in my view; and it is only a matter of when — not if — IMO  RCP, fortunascorner.com

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Merkel. EU deve cambiare radicalmente la politica economica.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-03-03.

2019-02-27__EU_Gdp__001

Gdp dell’Unione Europea, denominato in Usd.


I dati sono davvero di semplice lettura.

Comparando i dati attuali con quelli rilevati nel 2009, la Cina è passata da un gdp procapite di 4,142 Usd agli attuali  7,129; sempre in Cina il gdp è passato da 5,109.95 a 12,237.7 miliardi Usd; mentre l’Unione Europea aveva un gdp di 17,102.49 miliardi nel 2009 saliti a 17,277.7 nel 2017.


2019-02-27__EU_Gdp__003

Gdp della Cina, denominato in Usd.


La differenza è stridente: il modello cinese è quello vincente e quello europeo è quello perdente.

La dirigenza cinese si è dimostrata efficiente, quella europea inetta.

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«Germany and the EU need a new industrial strategy to respond to challenges from Asia»

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«EU politicians and business leaders need to “cooperate very closely” in creating a strategy»

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«We are all able to feel that tectonic shifts that are currently taking place»

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«We cannot just keep going with the [policies] we developed 10, 20 years ago»

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«Many countries in Asia pursue long-term economic strategies»

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«Speaking at the conference, Kaeser asked his peers and political leaders to act “much more strongly” in support of free trade, open markets and fair competition»

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«We are only relevant for partners in Asia as long as we are leaders in our fields»

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«We need to speak with one voice — at best, a European voice»

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Di fronte ad un simile disastroso risultato l’attuale dirigenza dovrebbe semplicemente farsi da parte, scomparire.

Mr Hollande prima e Mr Macron dopo, Frau Merkel, Mr Renzi e Mr Gentiloni, Mr Juncker, Mr Tusk, Mr Moscovici, Mr Oettinger e relativi sodali devono andarsene.

Ma forse la cosa peggiore è la beffa finale, quando per uscire da questa empasse affermano che servirebbe

«We need to speak with one voice — at best, a European voice».

Il problema non è quello di parlare con una voce, bensì quello di avere qualcosa da dire.

E senza produzione si deve solo stare zitti. Quei signori hanno assassinato la produzione schiacciandola sotto tasse e burocrazia.

Non solo.

Questa frase suona anche sinistra: essa infatti implicherebbe la presenza di uno stato europeo, esattamente l’opposto di quello che dovrebbe essere un’Unione Europea di stati sovrani.


Deutsche Welle. 2019-02-27. Angela Merkel urges radical shift on EU industrial policy

Germany and the EU need a new industrial strategy to respond to challenges from Asia, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said at a business summit. She has pledged to discuss the shift with France’s Emmanuel Macron.

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EU politicians and business leaders need to “cooperate very closely” in creating a strategy for the bloc’s industrial sector, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said at the meeting of the Asia-Pacific Committee of German Business (APA) on Tuesday.

“We are all able to feel that tectonic shifts that are currently taking place,” Merkel said, referring to the growing impact of China and other developing economies. “We cannot just keep going with the [policies] we developed 10, 20 years ago.”

Many countries in Asia pursue long-term economic strategies. China, for example, uses state subventions in specific sectors of its industry with the intent to close the technological gap with Western companies and position itself as the market leader.

In dealing with countries like China, Merkel said there needs to be more of a focus on protecting intellectual property and treating businesses fairly.

The chancellor also called for an overhaul of the EU’s policies on competition, and for German businesses to overcome the traditional gap between companies and state officials.

France, Germany to team up

Merkel’s remarks came after German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier suggested a new, more active industrial policy with the state playing a larger role. He also said Germany and France would present a joint strategy.

On Tuesday, Merkel said she would discuss the issue with French President Emmanuel Macron at a meeting set for the following day, as well as at an EU summit in March.

The APA meeting saw the head of German electronics and appliances giant Siemens, Joe Kaeser, take over as chairman of the business group.

Speaking at the conference, Kaeser asked his peers and political leaders to act “much more strongly” in support of free trade, open markets and fair competition.

“In this, the dialogue with China takes on a key role,” he added. “We need to speak with one voice — at best, a European voice.”

Kaeser also called on Germany to build up its presence in Asia and devote more funds into research and development.

“We are only relevant for partners in Asia as long as we are leaders in our fields.”