Pubblicato in: Demografia, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Sistemi Economici

India. Da paese emergente a paese emerso.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-09-20.

2017-09-19__India. Un continente in crescita.__001

«Gross Domestic Product of India grew 1.4% in the second quarter of 2017 compared to the previous quarter. This rate is 1-tenth of one percent higher than the figure of 1.3% published in the first quarter of 2017.

The year-on-year change in GDP was 5.9%, 1-tenth of one percent less than the 6% recorded in the first quarter of 2017.

The GDP figure in the second quarter of 2017 was $514,375 million, leaving India placed 6th in the ranking of quarterly GDP of the 50 countries that we publish.

India has a quarterly GDP per capita, of $428, $59 higher than the same quarter last year, it was.

If we order the countries according to their GDP per capita, India‘s population is the poorest of the 50 countries whose quarterly GDP we publish.

Here we show you the progression of the GDP in India. You can see GDP in other countries in GDP and see all the economic information about India in India’s economy.» [Fonte]

*

Secondo il Cia World Factbook 2016, il pil ppa dell’India ammonterebbe a 9,489.302 miliardi Usd, 6,616 Usd di pil ppa pro capite.

Se nel 2000 il pil ammontava a 476.636 miliardi Usd, nel 2016 aveva raggiunto i 2,256.397 miliardi Usd: in sedici anni il pil nominale è aumentato di 4.73 volte. È un risultato lusinghiero, nonostante che l’India abbia passato periodi politicamente alquanto turbolenti. Da anni sta crescendo al ritmo del 6%.

L’articolista di Bloomberg, a nostro parere correttamente, evidenzia come concausa di questo vorticoso incremento il fattore demografico.

«India is poised to emerge as an economic superpower, driven in part by its young population, while China and the Asian Tigers age rapidly»

*

«The number of people aged 65 and over in Asia will climb from 365 million today to more than half a billion in 2027, accounting for 60 percent of that age group globally by 2030»

*

«India will account for more than half of the increase in Asia’s workforce in the coming decade, but this isn’t just a story of more workers: these new workers will be much better trained and educated than the existing Indian workforce»

* * * * * * *

Si noti anche come il debito pubblico ammonti a 1,569 miliardi di Usd, con un rapporto debito/pil del 69.54%, in discesa rispetto agli anni precedenti.

In conclusione, l’India da paese emergente è diventato paese emerso e si avvia a diventare anch’essa una superopotenza economica. Ci metterà ancora una generazione, ma sembrerebbe essere sulla strada buona.




Bloomberg. 2017-09-18. Superpower India to Replace China as Growth Engine

India is poised to emerge as an economic superpower, driven in part by its young population, while China and the Asian Tigers age rapidly, according to Deloitte LLP.

The number of people aged 65 and over in Asia will climb from 365 million today to more than half a billion in 2027, accounting for 60 percent of that age group globally by 2030, Deloitte said in a report Monday. In contrast, India will drive the third great wave of Asia’s growth – following Japan and China — with a potential workforce set to climb from 885 million to 1.08 billion people in the next 20 years and hold above that for half a century.

“India will account for more than half of the increase in Asia’s workforce in the coming decade, but this isn’t just a story of more workers: these new workers will be much better trained and educated than the existing Indian workforce,’’  said Anis Chakravarty, economist at Deloitte India. “There will be rising economic potential coming alongside that, thanks to an increased share of women in the workforce, as well as an increased ability and interest in working for longer. The consequences for businesses are huge.’’

While the looming ‘Indian summer’ will last decades, it isn’t the only Asian economy set to surge. Indonesia and the Philippines also have relatively young populations, suggesting they’ll experience similar growth, says Deloitte. But the rise of India isn’t set in stone: if the right frameworks are not in place to sustain and promote growth, the burgeoning population could be faced with unemployment and become ripe for social unrest.

Deloitte names the countries that face the biggest challenges from the impact of ageing on growth as China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Thailand and New Zealand. For Australia, the report says the impact will likely outstrip that of Japan, which has already been through decades of the challenges of getting older. But there are some advantages Down Under.

“Rare among rich nations, Australia has a track record of welcoming migrants to our shores,” said Ian Thatcher, deputy managing partner at Deloitte Asia Pacific.  “That leaves us less at risk of an ageing-related slowdown in the decades ahead.’’

Japan’s experience shows there are opportunities from ageing, too. Demand has risen in sectors such as nursing, consumer goods for the elderly, age-appropriate housing and social infrastructure, as well as asset management and insurance. 

But Asia will need to adjust to cope with a forecast 1 billion people aged 65 and over by 2050. This will require:

– Raising retirement ages: Encouraging this could help growth in nations at the forefront of ageing impacts.

– More women in the workforce: A direct lever that ageing nations can pull to boost their growth potential.

– Taking in migrants: Accepting young, high-skilled migrants can help ward off ageing impacts on growth. 

– Boosting productivity: Education and re-training to bolster growth opportunities offered by new technologies.

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Regioni europee per pil ppa pro capite.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-04-10.

2017-04-10__Pil_ppa__001

«Quattro regioni d’Europa hanno un Pil per abitante doppio rispetto alla media Ue di 28.900 euro. Secondo il rapporto Eurostat, l’ufficio di statistica dell’unione europea, la regione con il Pil per abitante più alto è l’Inner London – West nel Regno Unito con 212.800 euro nel 2015. Seguono il Grand Ducato del Lussemburgo (89.900), Amburgo in Germania (61.700) e Bruxelles in Belgio (63.300). I dati sono del 2015 e sono espressi in termini di potere d’acquisto per abitante (Pps)

Nel 2015 c’erano 20 regioni con un PIL pro capite del 50% o più al di sopra della media UE nel 2015: cinque erano in Germania,quattro nel Regno Unito, due ciascuno nei Paesi Bassi e in Austria, uno in Belgio, Repubblica Ceca, Danimarca, Francia, Slovacchia e Svezia, così come il Lussemburgo. Dopo Severozapaden in Bulgaria (29% della media), le regioni più basse della classifica sono Mayotte in Francia (32%), Severen e Yuzhen in Bulgaria (entrambe 33%) e Nord-Est della Romania (34%). Tra le 19 regioni con un PIL pro capite inferiore al 50% della media UE, cinque erano in Bulgaria, quattro ciascuno in Ungheria e Polonia, tre in Romania, due in Grecia e una in Francia.» [Fonte]

*

2017-04-10__Pil_ppa__002

Si noti in particolare la Francia.

Tranne l’Île-de-France il pil procapite è sotto la media europea, sia pure di poco. Non è un buon segno per quella che dovrebbe essere la seconda economica dell’Unione Europea.

*

Si noti infine come i paesi mediterranei siano anche essi sotto il valor medio europeo.

Difficile gestire una situazione economica così variegata.