Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Banche Centrali. Alti tassi oppure alta inflazione. Possono scegliere come fallire.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-01.

Brüghel il Vecchio. La parabola dei ciechi.

«Se i fatti smentiscono la teoria, tanto peggio per i fatti», Hegel.

Fed. Non solo tapering. Il quantitative easing costituisce una bomba ad orologeria.

Canada. Bank of Canada inizia il ‘great exit’. Inizia il tapering.

Fed. Questa allarmante inflazione è proprio quello che avrebbe voluto evitare. – Bloomberg.

Inflazione. Sorella miseria si fa precedere dalla comare inflazione. Adesso anche l’UK.

Stagflazione. Uno dei tanti cigni neri che si aggirano come avvoltoi.

Fed. Che l’inflazione alta sia temporanea è un ‘article of faith’. – Bloomberg.

Usa. Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo +4.2% anno su anno. Fed in tilt.

USA. Crolla a 218k la generazione di nuovi posti di lavoro. Pronta reazione della Fed.

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«Con il termine tapering si fa riferimento al processo di rallentamento del ritmo di acquisti mensile dei titoli di Stato (noto come Quantitative easing) da parte di una banca centrale. La parola Tapering è stata utilizzata per la prima volta nel 2013 dall’allora numero uno della Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, quando decise di alleggerire la fase di QE. Il termine Tapering non deve essere confuso con il “Tightening”, parola che invece sta a indicare un restringimento delle condizioni di politica monetaria, solitamente attraverso un aumento graduale dei tassi di interesse» [Sole24Ore]

«central bank asset purchases in the United States, Japan, the euro zone and Britain will slide to about $3.4 trillion this year from almost $9 trillion in 2020»

«The Fed plans to keep borrowing costs near 0% and maintain monthly asset purchases worth $120 billion until it sees “substantial further progress” towards full employment and its 2% flexible inflation target»

* * *

«Con alleggerimento o allentamento quantitativo, o anche facilitazione quantitativa, sovente con la locuzione inglese quantitative easing (o QE), si designa una delle modalità con cui avviene la creazione di moneta a debito da parte di una banca centrale e la sua iniezione, con operazioni di mercato aperto, nel sistema finanziario ed economico. ….

Il quantitative easing è uno strumento in grado di assicurare la permanenza dell’inflazione al di sopra di una certo valore-obiettivo. Il rischio di questa politica monetaria è il fatto che si riveli più efficace del previsto contro la deflazione nel lungo termine, portando ad un eccesso di inflazione a causa dell’aumento dell’offerta di moneta ….»

* * * * * * *

«Slowly but surely, central banks are signaling policy shifts»

«New Zealand now sees higher rates in second half of 2022»

«Canada already signaled a shift»

«Fed also hints at exit talk»

«Central banks are beginning to tip toe away from their emergency monetary settings, with South Korea following in the footsteps of New Zealand and Canada to flag a potential interest-rate increase»

«As vaccines roll-outs continue and economies reopen, traders have been slowly dialing up expectations on rate hikes or a slowing of asset purchases elsewhere too»

«The Bank of Korea became the latest on Thursday to signal a turn when Governor Lee Ju-yeol said policy makers are preparing for an “orderly” exit from its record-low interest rate at some point as the economy recovers»

«The shift in stance came a day after New Zealand’s»

«We can’t rule out that the tail may wag the dog, influencing global market expectations of whether other central banks may also take a more hawkish turn»

«Financial markets have already brought forward pricing of the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike by almost a year since early February»

«Over the same period, market expectations from the Bank of England have switched from rate cuts by late 2022 to a rate increase»

«With major central banks embroiled in bond buying and other easing programs which traditionally get wound down first, most rate hikes remain some way off»

«The BOE has slowed bond-buying and signaled that it’s on course to end that support later this year»

«Norway is on track to start a hiking cycle, and Iceland has already begun»

«The Bank of Canada announced last month a reduction in debt purchases as it forecast a faster economic recovery that may pave the way for rate increases next year»

«The shift in monetary policy is starting»

«Hungary’s central bank said this week it was ready to deliver monetary tightening, and Russia, Turkey and Brazil have already hiked»

«The People’s Bank of China is holding the line with relatively disciplined stimulus»

«They will suffer from a double whammy as the Fed starts moving towards tapering»

* * * * * * *

Nuova Zelanda, Canada, South Korea, Regno Unito, Ungheria, Russia, Turkia, e Brasile hanno già iniziato il tapering oppure lo hanno annunciato come imminente. Ma il tapering si associa ad un aumento dei tassi di interesse.

Tuttavia, si faccia attenzione, il problema non è soltanto finanziario, di bilanciamento tra tassi di interesse ed inflazione.

Di interesse anche maggiore del pil è il numero dei nuovi posti di lavoro generati e la spesa per i consumi, che sono solo parzialmente influenzati dalle manovre finanziarie. Molto gioca la fiducia.

A parte il fatto che la Fed h sulle spalle 87 trilioni di debito totale degli Stati Uniti. Un grande fardello.

Nei fatti, prendiamo atto di questo trend che inizia a delinarsi.

*


Slowly But Surely, Central Banks Are Signaling Policy Shifts.

– New Zealand now sees higher rates in second half of 2022

– Canada already signaled a shift, Fed also hints at exit talk

*

Central banks are beginning to tip toe away from their emergency monetary settings, with South Korea following in the footsteps of New Zealand and Canada to flag a potential interest-rate increase.

As vaccines roll-outs continue and economies reopen, traders have been slowly dialing up expectations on rate hikes or a slowing of asset purchases elsewhere too. Markets are seizing on the tightening narrative, with bond yields and currencies fluctuating as investors recalibrate their bets.

The Bank of Korea became the latest on Thursday to signal a turn when Governor Lee Ju-yeol said policy makers are preparing for an “orderly” exit from its record-low interest rate at some point as the economy recovers. The shift in stance came a day after New Zealand’s.

New Zealand’s outlook was much more hawkish than expected and may yet signal a global shift, according to Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ Bank New Zealand in Auckland.

“We can’t rule out that the tail may wag the dog, influencing global market expectations of whether other central banks may also take a more hawkish turn,” she said.

Financial markets have already brought forward pricing of the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike by almost a year since early February. Over the same period, market expectations from the Bank of England have switched from rate cuts by late 2022 to a rate increase, while investors have almost abandoned bets on further European Central Bank reductions to instead price in a 10 basis-point upward move by the end of 2023.

                         Taper Talks

With major central banks embroiled in bond buying and other easing programs which traditionally get wound down first, most rate hikes remain some way off. But talk of a taper in asset purchases is catching on.

Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida told Yahoo! Finance in an interview Tuesday that there may be a point in upcoming policy meetings where officials can discuss scaling back purchases.

Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles said on Wednesday that it will be important for the central bank to begin discussing in coming months plans to reduce its massive bond purchases if the economy continues to power ahead.

The BOE has slowed bond-buying and signaled that it’s on course to end that support later this year. Australia’s central bank has set July as a deadline for deciding on whether to extend purchases.

Norway is on track to start a hiking cycle, and Iceland has already begun. The Bank of Canada announced last month a reduction in debt purchases as it forecast a faster economic recovery that may pave the way for rate increases next year.

                         Turning Point

“The shift in monetary policy is starting,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, Hong Kong based chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, who used to work for the ECB and International Monetary Fund.

Detailing its new outlook, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday published forecasts for its benchmark rate — for the first time in more than a year — that show the rate beginning to rise in mid-2022.

To be sure, this shift is still conditional.

RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said the bank’s outlook is predicated on the economy recovery continuing as vaccines roll out and the pandemic is contained. In a similar vein, BOK’s Lee said the board unanimously agreed to hold rates at a record low on Thursday as pandemic uncertainties persist.

The Fed’s Clarida also qualified his remarks around employment data and how inflation pressures play out, which he expects to be transitory.

It’s also the case that not every central bank is signaling a policy move, not least in the euro zone, where ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta said on Wednesday that he hasn’t seen a shift in the economic outlook to justify a reduction in bond purchases.

In emerging markets, the shift is splintering. Hungary’s central bank said this week it was ready to deliver monetary tightening, and Russia, Turkey and Brazil have already hiked. The People’s Bank of China is holding the line with relatively disciplined stimulus, while others continue to support growth as the virus continues to spread.

“There is growth divergence due to a much slower vaccination process in the emerging world and renewed waves,” said Garcia-Herrero. “They will suffer from a double whammy as the Fed starts moving towards tapering.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Harris-Biden Administration. Brucia sulla graticola degli eventi che non sa dominare.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-20.

Casa Bianca

La Harris-Biden Administration è sulla graticola, al momento incapace di gestire una serie di problemi politici ed economici laceranti.

– «Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2021 …. The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending». [Bureau of Economic Analysis]

Si faccia attenzione come questo incremento sia nei fatti sostenuto da “personal consumption expenditures …. federal government spending …. state and local government spending”. In realtà, l’incremento non è stato generato dal sistema ecomomico produttivo.

Non solo. Il Gdp è sicuramente un importante macrodato, ma altrettanto sicuramente non è l’unico da dover essere monitorato. Occupazione ed inflazione sono ben più importanti.

Usa. Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo +4.2% anno su anno. Fed in tilt.

La settimana scorsa l’inflazione è schizzata al 4.2%, logica conseguenza della massiccia iniezione di liquidità nel sistema. Ma se perdurasse nel tempo, obbligherebbe la Fed ad aumentare i tassi, facendo crollare tutto i sistema basato su tassi quasi eguali allo zero.

Harris-Biden Administration. Aprile21. Il fallimento dei posti di lavoro. Diseguaglianze.

Nel mese di aprile, come peraltro in quelli precedenti, l’economia americana ha aggiunto la misera quota di 266,000 nuovi posti di lavoro, ed i dati preliminari che stanno affluendo suggerirebbero che il mese di maggio non sia poi molto meglio. La Harris-Biden Administration dimostra la sua incapacità a generare nuovi posti di lavoro:  è nei triboli.

Tensions Among Democrats Grow Over Israel as the Left Defends Palestinians.

US legislator AOC calls Israel an ‘apartheid state’.

La forte ala liberal confluita nel partito democratico sta duramente contestando l’ambiguo comportamento della Harris-Biden Administration nei confronti del conflitto in corso tra palestinesi ed Israele.

Alexandria Ocasio Cortez ha portato il discorso ai limiti di una spaccatura del partito democratico.

In realtà, la Kamala Harris non sa che pesci prendere. Giace imbelle come una medusa spiaggiata.

USA. 124 generali ed ammiragli diffidano la Harris-Biden Administration.

Per la prima volta nella storia americana, 124 tra generali ed ammiragli hanno rilasciato una lettera aperta alla Harris-Biden Administration, che, inter alias, bollano di “patologie mentali” e di voler sottomettere gli Stati Uniti alla loro dittatura. Una lettera quanto mai pesante, segno del profondo travaglio che attanaglia le Forze Armate. Anche su questo problema non da poco la Harris-Biden Administration si è ritirata nel riserbo di chi non sa cosa dire e cosa fare.

* * * * * * *

Avere una Amministrazione portatrice di “patologie mentali“, lo dicono i generali, non è certo motivo di consolazione, né in America né nel mondo.

*

Job fears, price spikes mean heartburn for Biden White House as economy revs up.

                         High unemployment. Rising prices. Gas lines.

They’re a bad memory for Americans old enough to remember the 1970s – but they’re also likely causing a few sleepless nights in the White House, as the United States’ economic recovery from the unprecedented coronavirus recession hits some bumps.

The jolts are dampening consumer confidence, ramping up inflation fears, and helping Republicans build their case against President Joe Biden and his ambitious plans to revamp the U.S. economy with trillions in new spending.

As the 1970s show, high joblessness and rising prices the United States saw in April can be a potent political force.

Republicans crafted a “misery index” out of the two factors to attack then-president Jimmy Carter. After hitting 75% approval ratings early in his presidency, the Democrat was trounced in a 1980 landslide.

Support for Biden remains strong and U.S. equity markets remain near record highs.

The White House says there’s bound to be surprises as the United States emerges from an unprecedented pandemic.

“We must keep in mind that an economy will not heal instantaneously,” Cecilia Rouse, the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers told reporters Friday. “It takes several weeks for people to get full immunity from vaccinations, and even more time for those left jobless from the pandemic to find and start a suitable job.”

Rouse, speaking to reporters at the White House, said a mismatch between supply and demand due to the pandemic and the economic snap-back had pushed inflation higher but that the mismatch should prove temporary.

“I fully expect that will work itself out in the coming months,” she said.

The Federal Reserve also is betting heavily inflation will cool on its own, even as hiring picks up steam over the summer, Americans start to travel again, and the Fed keeps its massive crisis levels of support intact.

The White House wouldn’t offer a timeline for when the economy will smooth out. But it doesn’t expect a repeat of April’s weak jobs report, and recent data show applicants for unemployment benefits fell to a 14-month low.

“The trend lines continue to be positive,” a senior White House official told Reuters on Wednesday. The White House also believes the Fed can handle what comes up, he said.

“We haven’t seen anything that is suggested that the Fed doesn’t have an ample toolkit to manage any of the risks that might present themselves.”

                         ROUGH WATERS AHEAD

Still, there’s more turmoil in months to come.

Republicans, divided by former President Donald Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him, have seized the moment to knock the foundation of Biden’s economic plans – raising taxes on the wealthy and companies.

“You won’t find any Republicans who are gonna go raise taxes. I think that’s the worst thing you can do in this economy,” House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy told reporters outside the White House, citing inflation fears and gas prices.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the powerful corporate lobby group, is pushing for repeal of special unemployment payments that were a cornerstone of Biden’s campaign, and over a dozen state governors have decided to roll them back early.

With 7.5 million more people either unemployed or out of the job market altogether compared to before the pandemic, even a month or two more of weaker-than-expected job growth and rising prices would up the pressure on Biden and the Fed.

“If we get one more April that is concerning,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

Some early data suggest that May’s jobs report could be weak as well.

If workers don’t take jobs for whatever reason – continued fear of disease, lack of childcare, and higher-than-usual unemployment benefits have been cited – it would indicate “a significant supply constraint,” Daco said. Then, he said, “the question is how do you get people back? And that is a different question than pumping stimulus into the economy.”

The Biden administration, workers, labor advocates and some economists have argued firms should raise wages if they’re having trouble hiring, and some, including McDonald’s Corp (MCD.N) have followed suit.

Federal Reserve officials concede things could be tricky.

“The question of how to unclog the labor market is going to be a critical one,” and could limit overall economic growth this year if it takes too long, said Richmond Federal Reserve president Thomas Barkin.

                         UNEXPECTED BOTTLENECKS

While “unsticking” the labor market is one challenge, stamping out price flare-ups as Americans return to schools and offices and go on vacation once again is another.

Consumer sentiment in early May tumbled as people worried about rising prices. Inflation expectations for the year ahead and over the next five years rose to their highest in more than a decade.

“You have a logistical challenge of shutting down an economy and bringing it back up and we are not built for that,” Barkin said.

The Colonial Pipeline shutdown that led to gas lines in some southern states had nothing to do with the pandemic, and was lifted Wednesday. But it could take “some time” before it returns to normal, Biden said Thursday.

A semiconductor shortage that started before Biden took office continues to drive up car prices, as pandemic-shy Americans look for alternatives to public transportation.

Home builders point to surging lumber prices they say threaten the critical housing market and the broader economy. Prices for materials used in construction jumped 19.7% from April 2020 to last month, the largest increase in the 35-year history of the series, according to Ken Simonson, the chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America.

The White House declined to elaborate on specific remedies it might pursue to help the supply side of the economy, but pointed to steps to bring fuel to market after the Colonial Pipeline shutdown.

                         ‘WHIP INFLATION NOW’

Carter and his predecessor Republican Gerald Ford found inflation impossible to beat, but faced more endemic problems in the 1970s.

A Ford push to encourage Americans to save more and spend less, ‘Whip Inflation Now’ or WIN, was an abject failure.

Gas lines then were the result of entrenched geopolitics, not a one-off hack. Inflation was much higher and fed by a country-wide psychology that prices and wages should just keep going up – an important difference that Fed officials are adamant they will not allow to recur.

The country actually added an average of 215,000 jobs monthly during the Carter years. Yet unemployment was rising because so many new workers were joining the labor force, thanks to demographic trends and more women working outside the home for the first time.

Biden faces a very different problem – a job market in the wake of a deadly pandemic that has left workers constrained, nervous, or living off savings and unemployment benefits for now. But that doesn’t mean his job is any easier.