Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

USA. 2021Q2. Pil +6.5%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-31.

2021-07-30__ Usa PCE 001

Si notino due elementi.

– Il pil è aumentato di una percentuale quasi eguale a quella del PCE, ossia il 6.4%. L’aumento del Pil è virtualmente eguale alla inflazione stimata con il PCE,

– Il valore del Pil è artatamente gonfiato, contabilizzando come prodotti da lavoro i sussidi assistenziali.

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«Disposable personal income decreased $1.42 trillion, or 26.1 percent»

«Real disposable personal income decreased 30.6 percent»

«personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 10.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with 20.8 percent in the first quarter»

Questi macro dati sembrerebbero essere ben poco entusiasmanti.

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Bureau of Economic Analysis. Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update

                         Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.5 percent in the second quarter of 2021 (table 1), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 6.3 percent (revised).

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 3). The “second” estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 26, 2021.

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).

The increase in PCE reflected increases in services (led by food services and accommodations) and goods (led by “other” nondurable goods, notably pharmaceutical products). The increase in nonresidential fixed investment reflected increases in equipment (led by transportation equipment) and intellectual property products (led by research and development). The increase in exports reflected an increase in goods (led by nonautomotive capital goods) and services (led by travel). The decrease in private inventory investment was led by a decrease in retail trade inventories. The decrease in federal government spending primarily reflected a decrease in nondefense spending on intermediate goods and services In the second quarter, nondefense services decreased as the processing and administration of Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan applications by banks on behalf of the federal government declined.

Current‑dollar GDP increased 13.0 percent at an annual rate, or $684.4 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $22.72 trillion. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 10.9 percent, or $560.6 billion (revised, tables 1 and 3). More information on the source data that underlie the estimates is available in the Key Source Data and      Assumptions file on BEA’s website.

                         The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 5.7 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.9 percent (revised) in the first quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 6.4 percent, compared with an increase of 3.8 percent (revised). Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 6.1 percent, compared with an increase of 2.7 percent (revised).

                         Personal Income

                         Current-dollar personal income decreased $1.32 trillion in the second quarter, or 22.0 percent, in contrast to an increase of $2.33 trillion (revised), or 56.8 percent, in the first quarter. The decrease  primarily reflected a decrease in government social benefits related to pandemic relief programs, notably the decrease in direct economic impact payments to households established by the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act and the American Rescue Plan Act (table 8). Additional information on factors impacting personal income can be found in Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income.

                         Disposable personal income decreased $1.42 trillion, or 26.1 percent, in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of $2.27 trillion, or 63.7 percent (revised), in the first quarter. Real disposable personal income decreased 30.6 percent, in contrast to an increase of 57.6 percent.

                         Personal outlays increased $680.8 billion, after increasing $538.8 billion. The increase in outlays was led by an increase in PCE for services.

                         Personal saving was $1.97 trillion in the second quarter, compared with $4.07 trillion (revised) in the first quarter.  The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 10.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with 20.8 percent in the first quarter.

                         Source Data for the Advance Estimate

Information on the key source data and assumptions used in the advance estimate is provided in a Technical Note that is posted with the news release on BEA’s website. A detailed Key Source Data and Assumptions file is also posted for each release. For information on updates to GDP, see the “Additional Information” section that follows.

                         Annual Update of the National Economic Accounts

Today’s release also reflects the Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts; the updated Industry Economic Accounts will be released on September 30, 2021, along with the third estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2021. The timespan of the update is the first quarter of 1999 through the first quarter of 2021 and resulted in revisions to GDP, GDI, and their major components. The reference year remains 2012. More information on the 2021 Annual Update is included in the May Survey of Current Business article, GDP and the Economy.
For the period of economic expansion from the second quarter of 2009 through the fourth quarter of 2019, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent, the same as previously published. For the period of economic contraction from the fourth quarter of 2019 through the second quarter of 2020, real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 19.2 percent, also the same as previously published. For the period of economic expansion from the second quarter of 2020 through the first quarter of 2021, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 14.1 percent, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the previously published estimate.

With today’s release, most NIPA tables are available through BEA’s Interactive Data application on the BEA website (www.bea.gov). See Information on Updates to the National Economic Accounts for the complete table release schedule and a summary of results through 2020, which includes a discussion of methodology changes. A table showing the major current‑dollar revisions and their sources for each component of GDP, national income, and personal income is also provided. The August 2021 Survey of Current Business will contain an article describing the update in more detail.

Updates for the First Quarter of 2021

For the first quarter of 2021, real GDP is estimated to have increased 6.3 percent (table 1), 0.1 percentage point less than previously published. The revision primarily reflected downward revisions to federal government spending, state and local government spending, and exports that were partly offset by an upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment.

Real GDI is now estimated to have increased 6.3 percent in the first quarter (table 1); in the previously published estimates, first-quarter GDI was estimated to have increased 7.6 percent. The leading contributor to the downward revision was compensation, based primarily on new first-quarter wage and salary estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

The price index for gross domestic purchases is now estimated to have increased 3.9 percent in the first quarter, 0.1 percentage point lower than previously published (table 4). The PCE price index increased 3.8 percent, 0.1 percentage point higher than previously published. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.7 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than previously published.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Harris-Biden Administration. Brucia sulla graticola degli eventi che non sa dominare.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-20.

Casa Bianca

La Harris-Biden Administration è sulla graticola, al momento incapace di gestire una serie di problemi politici ed economici laceranti.

– «Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2021 …. The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending». [Bureau of Economic Analysis]

Si faccia attenzione come questo incremento sia nei fatti sostenuto da “personal consumption expenditures …. federal government spending …. state and local government spending”. In realtà, l’incremento non è stato generato dal sistema ecomomico produttivo.

Non solo. Il Gdp è sicuramente un importante macrodato, ma altrettanto sicuramente non è l’unico da dover essere monitorato. Occupazione ed inflazione sono ben più importanti.

Usa. Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo +4.2% anno su anno. Fed in tilt.

La settimana scorsa l’inflazione è schizzata al 4.2%, logica conseguenza della massiccia iniezione di liquidità nel sistema. Ma se perdurasse nel tempo, obbligherebbe la Fed ad aumentare i tassi, facendo crollare tutto i sistema basato su tassi quasi eguali allo zero.

Harris-Biden Administration. Aprile21. Il fallimento dei posti di lavoro. Diseguaglianze.

Nel mese di aprile, come peraltro in quelli precedenti, l’economia americana ha aggiunto la misera quota di 266,000 nuovi posti di lavoro, ed i dati preliminari che stanno affluendo suggerirebbero che il mese di maggio non sia poi molto meglio. La Harris-Biden Administration dimostra la sua incapacità a generare nuovi posti di lavoro:  è nei triboli.

Tensions Among Democrats Grow Over Israel as the Left Defends Palestinians.

US legislator AOC calls Israel an ‘apartheid state’.

La forte ala liberal confluita nel partito democratico sta duramente contestando l’ambiguo comportamento della Harris-Biden Administration nei confronti del conflitto in corso tra palestinesi ed Israele.

Alexandria Ocasio Cortez ha portato il discorso ai limiti di una spaccatura del partito democratico.

In realtà, la Kamala Harris non sa che pesci prendere. Giace imbelle come una medusa spiaggiata.

USA. 124 generali ed ammiragli diffidano la Harris-Biden Administration.

Per la prima volta nella storia americana, 124 tra generali ed ammiragli hanno rilasciato una lettera aperta alla Harris-Biden Administration, che, inter alias, bollano di “patologie mentali” e di voler sottomettere gli Stati Uniti alla loro dittatura. Una lettera quanto mai pesante, segno del profondo travaglio che attanaglia le Forze Armate. Anche su questo problema non da poco la Harris-Biden Administration si è ritirata nel riserbo di chi non sa cosa dire e cosa fare.

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Avere una Amministrazione portatrice di “patologie mentali“, lo dicono i generali, non è certo motivo di consolazione, né in America né nel mondo.

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Job fears, price spikes mean heartburn for Biden White House as economy revs up.

                         High unemployment. Rising prices. Gas lines.

They’re a bad memory for Americans old enough to remember the 1970s – but they’re also likely causing a few sleepless nights in the White House, as the United States’ economic recovery from the unprecedented coronavirus recession hits some bumps.

The jolts are dampening consumer confidence, ramping up inflation fears, and helping Republicans build their case against President Joe Biden and his ambitious plans to revamp the U.S. economy with trillions in new spending.

As the 1970s show, high joblessness and rising prices the United States saw in April can be a potent political force.

Republicans crafted a “misery index” out of the two factors to attack then-president Jimmy Carter. After hitting 75% approval ratings early in his presidency, the Democrat was trounced in a 1980 landslide.

Support for Biden remains strong and U.S. equity markets remain near record highs.

The White House says there’s bound to be surprises as the United States emerges from an unprecedented pandemic.

“We must keep in mind that an economy will not heal instantaneously,” Cecilia Rouse, the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers told reporters Friday. “It takes several weeks for people to get full immunity from vaccinations, and even more time for those left jobless from the pandemic to find and start a suitable job.”

Rouse, speaking to reporters at the White House, said a mismatch between supply and demand due to the pandemic and the economic snap-back had pushed inflation higher but that the mismatch should prove temporary.

“I fully expect that will work itself out in the coming months,” she said.

The Federal Reserve also is betting heavily inflation will cool on its own, even as hiring picks up steam over the summer, Americans start to travel again, and the Fed keeps its massive crisis levels of support intact.

The White House wouldn’t offer a timeline for when the economy will smooth out. But it doesn’t expect a repeat of April’s weak jobs report, and recent data show applicants for unemployment benefits fell to a 14-month low.

“The trend lines continue to be positive,” a senior White House official told Reuters on Wednesday. The White House also believes the Fed can handle what comes up, he said.

“We haven’t seen anything that is suggested that the Fed doesn’t have an ample toolkit to manage any of the risks that might present themselves.”

                         ROUGH WATERS AHEAD

Still, there’s more turmoil in months to come.

Republicans, divided by former President Donald Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him, have seized the moment to knock the foundation of Biden’s economic plans – raising taxes on the wealthy and companies.

“You won’t find any Republicans who are gonna go raise taxes. I think that’s the worst thing you can do in this economy,” House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy told reporters outside the White House, citing inflation fears and gas prices.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the powerful corporate lobby group, is pushing for repeal of special unemployment payments that were a cornerstone of Biden’s campaign, and over a dozen state governors have decided to roll them back early.

With 7.5 million more people either unemployed or out of the job market altogether compared to before the pandemic, even a month or two more of weaker-than-expected job growth and rising prices would up the pressure on Biden and the Fed.

“If we get one more April that is concerning,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

Some early data suggest that May’s jobs report could be weak as well.

If workers don’t take jobs for whatever reason – continued fear of disease, lack of childcare, and higher-than-usual unemployment benefits have been cited – it would indicate “a significant supply constraint,” Daco said. Then, he said, “the question is how do you get people back? And that is a different question than pumping stimulus into the economy.”

The Biden administration, workers, labor advocates and some economists have argued firms should raise wages if they’re having trouble hiring, and some, including McDonald’s Corp (MCD.N) have followed suit.

Federal Reserve officials concede things could be tricky.

“The question of how to unclog the labor market is going to be a critical one,” and could limit overall economic growth this year if it takes too long, said Richmond Federal Reserve president Thomas Barkin.

                         UNEXPECTED BOTTLENECKS

While “unsticking” the labor market is one challenge, stamping out price flare-ups as Americans return to schools and offices and go on vacation once again is another.

Consumer sentiment in early May tumbled as people worried about rising prices. Inflation expectations for the year ahead and over the next five years rose to their highest in more than a decade.

“You have a logistical challenge of shutting down an economy and bringing it back up and we are not built for that,” Barkin said.

The Colonial Pipeline shutdown that led to gas lines in some southern states had nothing to do with the pandemic, and was lifted Wednesday. But it could take “some time” before it returns to normal, Biden said Thursday.

A semiconductor shortage that started before Biden took office continues to drive up car prices, as pandemic-shy Americans look for alternatives to public transportation.

Home builders point to surging lumber prices they say threaten the critical housing market and the broader economy. Prices for materials used in construction jumped 19.7% from April 2020 to last month, the largest increase in the 35-year history of the series, according to Ken Simonson, the chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America.

The White House declined to elaborate on specific remedies it might pursue to help the supply side of the economy, but pointed to steps to bring fuel to market after the Colonial Pipeline shutdown.

                         ‘WHIP INFLATION NOW’

Carter and his predecessor Republican Gerald Ford found inflation impossible to beat, but faced more endemic problems in the 1970s.

A Ford push to encourage Americans to save more and spend less, ‘Whip Inflation Now’ or WIN, was an abject failure.

Gas lines then were the result of entrenched geopolitics, not a one-off hack. Inflation was much higher and fed by a country-wide psychology that prices and wages should just keep going up – an important difference that Fed officials are adamant they will not allow to recur.

The country actually added an average of 215,000 jobs monthly during the Carter years. Yet unemployment was rising because so many new workers were joining the labor force, thanks to demographic trends and more women working outside the home for the first time.

Biden faces a very different problem – a job market in the wake of a deadly pandemic that has left workers constrained, nervous, or living off savings and unemployment benefits for now. But that doesn’t mean his job is any easier.