Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio

Laos. Ferrovia Boten–Vientiane (China–Laos railway) quasi terminata.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-13

Laos-China Railway

«The Boten–Vientiane railway (often referred to as the China–Laos railway) is a 414 kilometres (257 mi) 1,435 mm (4 ft 8+1⁄2 in) standard gauge electrified railway under construction in Laos, between the capital Vientiane and the small town of Boten on the border with China. It is the most expensive and largest project ever to be constructed in Laos.

In the north the line will be connected to the Chinese rail system in Mohan, through the Yuxi–Mohan railway. In the south it meets the existing metre-gauge railway in Thanaleng, linking it via Nong Khai in Thailand to Bangkok. A high-speed, standard gauge extension to Bangkok is also under construction. When finished, the Boten–Vientiane railway will form an important part of the Kunming–Singapore railway.

China aims to build a 5,500-km trans-Asia railway, which begins in Yunnan’s provincial capital Kunming and travels through Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia, before ending in Singapore, according to Ding He, a deputy project manager for the China–Laos railway project. The Boten–Vientiane railway is part of the Belt and Road Initiative.» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

«Despite the impact from the COVID-19 pandemic, both Chinese and Lao engineers are striving to complete the construction of the China-Laos Railway and put it on operation in the coming December as scheduled»

«It will be on December 2 when we are to complete the railway construction and make it ready for full operation»

«In the southern end of the railway in Vientiane, the China Railway No. 5 Engineering Group (CREC-5) has completed the construction of the main structure of the longest bridge along the China-Laos Railway, the Phonethong super major bridge with a length of 7,528.56 meters and 231 piers»

«In the northern end of the railway, the China Railway Construction Engineering Group (CRCEG) roofed the Lao border gate station in Boten On June 15, while the same Chinese company ceiled the top of the first railway station in Nateuy, some 360 km north of Lao capital Vientiane, nine months ago on Sept. 16, 2020»

«There is a Chinese saying ‘to get rich, build roads first»

«In the past two years, the cooperation between Laos and China has been outstanding. Especially, the first modern Vientiane-Vangvieng Expressway»

«an operating speed of 160 km per hour.»

* * * * * * *

Caratteristica del progetto Belt and Road è quello di dotare il sud-est asiatico di una rete ferroviaria ed autostradale allo stato dell’arte. Senza un sistema coordinato di rete ferroviaria ed autostradale sarebbe impossibile lo scambio di merci ed i viaggi delle persone.

Non solo.

La China–Laos railway si prolungherà fino in Thailandia, servendo Nakhon Ratchasima ed, infine, Bangkok ed il suo porto, i cui traffici sono quindi previsti in forte aumento. Le infrastrutture generano posti di lavoro.

*


Roundup: Construction progress of China-Laos Railway on schedule despite pandemic

VIENTIANE, June 25 (Xinhua) — Despite the impact from the COVID-19 pandemic, both Chinese and Lao engineers are striving to complete the construction of the China-Laos Railway and put it on operation in the coming December as scheduled.

“It will be on December 2 when we are to complete the railway construction and make it ready for full operation,” Xiao Qianwen, general manager of the Laos-China Railway Co., Ltd., a joint venture based in Lao capital Vientiane for the construction and operation of the first modern railway in the country, told Xinhua on Friday.

“We are not changing the timetable and we are striving for that goal, with over 90 percent of the engineering work done, and our preparation for the operation is well on the way.”

In the southern end of the railway in Vientiane, the China Railway No. 5 Engineering Group (CREC-5) has completed the construction of the main structure of the longest bridge along the China-Laos Railway, the Phonethong super major bridge with a length of 7,528.56 meters and 231 piers.

In the northern end of the railway, the China Railway Construction Engineering Group (CRCEG) roofed the Lao border gate station in Boten On June 15, while the same Chinese company ceiled the top of the first railway station in Nateuy, some 360 km north of Lao capital Vientiane, nine months ago on Sept. 16, 2020.

By May 15, the construction of all 67 communication towers along the China-Laos railway had completed, while the China-Laos railway tracks had been extended from Vientiane to the northern end of Boten.

“We will installed all the tracks by mid-August,” Lei Chao, a China Railway No. 2 Engineering Group (CREC-2) railing base project manager, told Xinhua on Friday in Vientiane.

Lei said the CREC-2 teams are carry out strict precaution measures against the COVID-19 pandemic as to achieve uninterrupted construction of the project with zero infection case. The company kicked off the track laying on March 27, 2020.

According to Xiao Qianwen, most of the construction sites are located in tropical mountainous areas, with complex geographical conditions and poor traffic conditions, resulting in difficulties for the construction.

Especially during the rainy season, the machinery can not get access to the construction sites and sometimes the Chinese engineering teams even have to turn to the piggyback transportation to carry large amounts of the needed materials and equipment.

The China-Laos Railway’s construction has been confronted with huge challenges and difficulties during the pandemic, but the construction progress in an orderly and balanced manner has boosted the confidence in the timely completion of the railway in this December, Bounthong Chitmany, vice president of Laos, said when talking to Xiao Qianwen in the Lao presidential palace on June 15.

On June 10, when inspecting the Vientiane railway station’s construction, Lao Deputy Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone praised the Chinese engineering company there which hired some 700 local employees, hoping the railway will offer more jobs to local communities.

The deputy prime minister, on behalf of the Lao government, hailed and progresses and achievements of the China-Laos Railway construction amid the epidemic, saying that the railway is a landmark project of the friendship between Laos and China and its completion coincides with the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Laos, which is of great significance.

Both sides must cooperate to efficiently advance the remaining work, complete the construction and start the operation on schedule, and live up to the ardent expectations of the two parties and the two peoples, said Sonexay.

“The COVID-19 pandemic has brought many difficulties to the Lao people, and thus, I especially expect the railway to be open to traffic this year, which is something the Lao people have been dreaming for a long time,” said Somphone Inleuangsy, aged 24, from Luang Namtha, a mountainous province in northern Laos that borders China. He is currently receiving training at the CREC-2 railing base on the northern outskirts of Vientiane.

She told Xinhua “There is a Chinese saying ‘to get rich, build roads first,’ and I hope Laos, with the Laos-China railway, will become prosperous soon. I also hope Laos will become a transportation hub in Southeast Asia to drive the development in the region.”

“As a female, among all over 600 trainees of the China-Laos Railway, I feel very honored and proud. I hope that I can become a formal railway employee after the training, and I hope my parents can see how I drive a train,” Somphone said. “I also hope that with the opening of the China-Laos railway, more Chinese friends can come to help the development here.”

At present, a total of 636 Lao youngsters are trained for the future operation of China-Laos Railway, working as train drivers, equipment and infrastructure maintenance personnel.

“In the past two years, the cooperation between Laos and China has been outstanding. Especially, the first modern Vientiane-Vangvieng Expressway in Laos has been put into operation through cooperation, and the high-speed Laos-China Railway will be completed by the end of this year,” said Valy Vetsaphong, Lao Prime Minister’s advisor and vice president of the Lao National Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

“This is due to the policy coordination between the two countries, and the dovetail between Laos’ strategy to convert from a landlocked country to a land-linked hub and China’s Belt and Road Initiative.”

Valy told Xinhua “The Laos-China Railway will lay a new foundation for the introduction of foreign investment, and Laos will surely take the advantage to participate in the regional and global industrial chain. In other words, the China-Laos Railway will not only promote bilateral trade, investment and people-to-people exchanges, but also benefit the countries to be connected. I believe that the completion and operation of the Laos-China railway will promote the post-pandemic recovery of neighboring countries and the whole region.”

The over 400 km railway will run from Boten border gate in northern Laos bordering China to Vientiane with an operating speed of 160 km per hour.

The electrified passenger and cargo railway is built with the full application of the Chinese management and technical standards. The construction of the project started in December 2016 and is scheduled to be completed and open to traffic in December 2021. Enditem

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Materie Prime

Acciaio. Ferro estrattivo +40.38% ed acciaio +29.34%, anno su anno. Inflazione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-23.

2021-07-20__ Steel 001

«Shanghai steel futures recovered to above 5,400 yuan a tonne, the highest since May 18th after latest data showed China’s crude steel output rose by 11.8% from a year earlier in the first half of the year. China pledged to limit crude steel output in 2021 at no higher than the 1.065 billion tonnes it made last year but at the half-way stage of the year, the country has already produced 563.33 million tonnes of the metal. Considering only June, production went up 1.5% year-on-year but declined 5.6% from a record level in May as government environmental controls ahead of the Communist Party’s centenary celebrations in July constrained production. The steel market has been under pressure due to China’s efforts to limit soaring commodity prices after cost of steel rallied to an all-time high of 5,975 yuan per tonne on May 11th.

Steel Rebar is mostly traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and London Metal Exchange. The standard future contract is 10 tons. Steel is one of the world’s most important materials used in construction, cars and all sorts of machines and appliances. By far the biggest producer of crude steel is China, followed by European Union, Japan, United States, India, Russia and South Korea. The steel prices displayed in Trading Economics are based on over-the-counter (OTC) and contract for difference (CFD) financial instruments.» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

«Roaring industrial demand is propelling those rallies, with plants straining to boost supply after lying dormant during the pandemic.»

«On top of that, powerhouses China and Russia are trying to limit exports to help other industries at home»

«That optimism is a far cry from the past decade, when Western makers closed plants and shed workers as low demand had their mills operating below capacity»

«Last year alone, 72 blast furnaces were idled, according to UBS Group AG»

«→→ This year, U.S. President Joe Biden wants to spend on infrastructure, and the European Union wants to spend on reaching net-zero emissions ←←»

«The West’s top steelmaker ArcelorMittal is set for blockbuster earning»

«We could see a turnaround story there because those economies just need their steel»

«Developments in China are key, given it produces more than half of the world’s steel, mostly with coal-fired blast furnaces»

«Still, other Asian nations are looking to fill any potential gaps in supply»

«Biden is determined to make new roads, rail and housing the hallmark of his tenure, while the EU is emphasizing clean energy as part of the coronavirus recovery package and Green Deal»

«And even as demand rises, Western producers aren’t keen on expanding»

«Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., the second largest U.S. steelmaker, is set to tear down its Ashland mill in Kentucky, as well as a blast furnace at Indiana Harbor West»

«If anything, more support is on the way. The EU eventually will impose duties on imported steel as part of its Green Deal, and those will fall most heavily on carbon-intensive producers such as Russia»

«India is set to boost capacity, with top producer JSW Group saying it will reach its goal of more than doubling capacity to 45 million tons before 2030»

«Southeast Asia, including Malaysia and Indonesia, plans to add another 60 million tons by the end of this decade»

«We need bricks, we need cement, we need steel»

* * * * * * *

Messi i dazi sull’acciaio inossidabile da Cina, Indonesia e Taiwan.

Cina. Innalzati i dazi sui tubi di acciaio EU ed USA.

Acciaio. Primo Trimestre. Mondo -1.4%, Italia -40.2%.

China iron ore surges over 50% in 2020, up for second straight year.

Cina. Acciaio +54%, +23% nel quarto trimestre. Unione Europea -30%.

USA. Acciaio. Prezzi schizzati a 1,350 Usd per tonnellata, +33% in un mese.

Thyssenkrupp-Manager besorgt “Wir haben einen Stahlengpass in Europa”

Unione Europea. Mancano 20 milioni di tonnellate di acciaio in un anno.

* * * * * * *

In un anno il prezzo medio del ferro estrattivo è salito del 40.38% e quello dell’acciaio del 29.34%.

La produzione si è spostata nei paesi che non hanno preclusioni ideologiche: Cina, Russia, India, Malaysia, Indonesia.

Ed il risultato finale è che l’occidente soffre di una severa carenza di acciaio, pur pagandolo a caro prezzo.

Non esiste produzione industriale senza acciaio. Ma non è detto che i produttori vogliano venderlo, specie poi a quanti vorrebbero condannarli perché non si sottomettono alla loro ideologia.

Di conseguenza, ed è un ben triste ritornello di questi tempi, salgono i costi di produzione industriale e, quindi, i prezzi al dettaglio.

Tutto concorre ad alimentare un processo inflattivo, di fronte al quale le banche centrali possono fare poco o nulla.

Adesso, il debito junk rende meno della inflazione.

La conclusione è purtroppo molto semplice.

*


Record Steel Prices Inject Life Into Long-Suffering Industry

There’s rarely been a better time to be in the steel business.

Prices have boomed worldwide this year, smashing record after record. Roaring industrial demand is propelling those rallies, with plants straining to boost supply after lying dormant during the pandemic. On top of that, powerhouses China and Russia are trying to limit exports to help other industries at home.

“If you’d asked me six months ago what was my most positive vision for the first half of 2021, I don’t think I would’ve even come close to the reality,” Carlo Beltrame, who manages Romania and France for AFV Beltrame, said in a phone interview. The closely-held company plans to build a 250 million-euro ($295 million) mill in Romania with the capacity to produce about 600,000 tons a year.

That optimism is a far cry from the past decade, when Western makers closed plants and shed workers as low demand had their mills operating below capacity. Last year alone, 72 blast furnaces were idled, according to UBS Group AG.

This year, U.S. President Joe Biden wants to spend on infrastructure, and the European Union wants to spend on reaching net-zero emissions. Manufacturers such as Nucor Corp., U.S. Steel Corp. and SSAB AB are among those set to become profit machines. ArcelorMittal SA, the world’s biggest outside of China, will earn more than McDonald’s Corp. or PepsiCo Inc., according to analysts’ estimates.

                         Profit Machine

The West’s top steelmaker ArcelorMittal is set for blockbuster earnings

Few expect these good times to last through 2022. Keybanc Capital Markets and Bank of America Corp. believe the backlogs driving a surge in U.S. steel prices will start clearing this year. But some analysts predict the current rally may herald better times in the long run, with prices eventually settling at more sustainable levels than before.

“The steel industries outside of China will potentially enter a renaissance period,” said Tom Price, head of commodities strategy at Liberum Capital Ltd. in London. “We could see a turnaround story there because those economies just need their steel.”

Developments in China are key, given it produces more than half of the world’s steel, mostly with coal-fired blast furnaces. The government has signaled it no longer wants to bear the huge environmental burden that entails, so it’s seeking to curb production through measures such as firming up guidance on capacity swaps and removing export tax rebates.

“Restrictions almost certainly will come into place,” said Tomas Gutierrez, Asia editor and head of data for Kallanish Commodities Ltd. “Steelmakers overseas can sleep a little easier.”

Achieving the government’s goal will be a challenge given China’s strong output at the start of the year, said Lu Ting, senior analyst at researcher Shanghai Metals Market. Still, other Asian nations are looking to fill any potential gaps in supply.

Also providing cause for optimism is the renewed focus on stimulus and infrastructure in the U.S. and Europe. Biden is determined to make new roads, rail and housing the hallmark of his tenure, while the EU is emphasizing clean energy as part of the coronavirus recovery package and Green Deal.

That requires steel, and lots of it. Biden’s proposed infrastructure plan would increase annual demand by about 5 million tons for the first five years, London-based consultancy CRU Group estimated. A bipartisan package would spend $579 billion if approved.

Yet only 4.6 million annual tons of planned capacity are expected to come online in the U.S. by the end of 2022, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Andrew Cosgrove said.

And even as demand rises, Western producers aren’t keen on expanding. U.S. Steel Chief Executive Officer David Burritt told shareholders in April the company had no plans to restart two blast furnaces that were shut down last year.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., the second largest U.S. steelmaker, is set to tear down its Ashland mill in Kentucky, as well as a blast furnace at Indiana Harbor West. CEO Lourenco Goncalves said in April those will never return to production as his focus is paying down debt.

European producers are almost as skittish about investing in new capacity after spending the past decade painfully cutting down. ArcelorMittal said during earnings calls that its priority is shareholder returns.

In part, that’s due to fears that protectionist measures governments implemented to support their ailing steel companies won’t last forever.

But there’s no signs of change on that front, even with sky-high prices. Biden still hasn’t repealed tariffs on foreign steel imposed by former President Donald Trump, while the EU last month opted to extend its safeguard measures for another three years.

If anything, more support is on the way. The EU eventually will impose duties on imported steel as part of its Green Deal, and those will fall most heavily on carbon-intensive producers such as Russia.

Other nations also could fill the gap created by China’s restrictive measures. India is set to boost capacity, with top producer JSW Group saying it will reach its goal of more than doubling capacity to 45 million tons before 2030. Southeast Asia, including Malaysia and Indonesia, plans to add another 60 million tons by the end of this decade, according to consultant Wood Mackenzie.

AFV Beltrame could start building its rebar and wire rod factory in Romania as early as this year. The plant will generate the lowest emissions in a steel production unit in the world, the company says.

“I’m trusting that this super cycle will last for some more months,” Carlo Beltrame said. “We need bricks, we need cement, we need steel. And we as entrepreneurs have to take the challenge of transforming this industry.”

Pubblicato in: Commercio

Italia. Marzo21. Export +28.1%, Import +35.1%, su base annua. – Istat.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-19.

2021-05-19__ Istat Import Export 001

Istat ha rilasciato il Report Commercio con l’Estero e prezzi all’Import.

*

Nota.

Le percentuali anno su anno sono inusitatamente elevate a seguito del forte calo dei commerci avvenuto lo scorso anno.

* * * * * * *


Marzo 2021. Commercio con l’Estero e prezzi all’Import.

– A marzo 2021 si stima una crescita congiunturale per i flussi commerciali con l’estero, più intensa per le importazioni (+6,0%) che per le esportazioni (+3,2%). L’incremento su base mensile dell’export è dovuto all’aumento delle vendite sia verso l’area Ue (+3,7%) sia verso i mercati extra Ue (+2,6%).

– Nel primo trimestre del 2021, rispetto al precedente, l’export aumenta del 2,6%, l’import del 5,0%.

– A marzo 2021, l’export sale su base annua del 28,1%; la crescita è più sostenuta verso l’area Ue (+32,6%) rispetto all’area extra Ue (+23,2%). L’import registra un aumento tendenziale più marcato (+35,1%), con incrementi di analoga entità verso entrambi i principali mercati di sbocco, Ue ed extra Ue.

– Tra i settori che contribuiscono maggiormente all’aumento tendenziale dell’export si segnalano macchinari e apparecchi n.c.a (che crescono del +32,3%), metalli di base e prodotti in metallo, esclusi macchine e impianti (+35,4%), autoveicoli (+80,1%), mezzi di trasporto, autoveicoli esclusi (+43,6%) e articoli di abbigliamento, anche in pelle e in pelliccia (+57,4%). Solo le vendite di articoli farmaceutici, chimico-medicinali e botanici (-9,3%) sono in calo.

– Su base annua, le esportazioni crescono verso tutti i principali paesi partner; i contributi maggiori riguardano le vendite verso Germania (con un aumento del 30,6%), Francia (+39,0%), Spagna (+37,4%), Svizzera (+35,7%) e Paesi Bassi (+51,6%).

– Nel primo trimestre del 2021, la crescita tendenziale dell’export (+4,6%) è dovuta in particolare all’incremento delle vendite di metalli di base e prodotti in metallo, esclusi macchine e impianti (+13,7%), macchinari e apparecchi n.c.a. (+8,5%), autoveicoli (+22,3%) e apparecchi elettrici (+14,9%).

-La stima del saldo commerciale a marzo 2021 è pari a +5.190 milioni di euro (era +5.701 a marzo 2020). Al netto dei prodotti energetici il saldo è pari a +7.984 milioni (era +7.707 a marzo dello scorso anno).

-Nel mese di marzo 2021 i prezzi all’importazione aumentano dell’1,9% su base mensile e del 4,2% su base annua.

* * * * * * *


Il commento.

A marzo prosegue la dinamica congiunturale positiva dell’export, sostenuta dal commercio estero con i paesi sia Ue sia extra Ue. Nel primo trimestre dell’anno, rispetto all’ultimo del 2020, l’aumento dell’export è trainato essenzialmente dalle vendite verso l’area Ue. Nel confronto con marzo 2020 – quando anche il commercio con l’estero iniziò a subire gli effetti dell’emergenza sanitaria – la crescita dell’export è molto marcata e diffusa a livello settoriale e verso tutti i principali paesi partner. Le vendite di macchinari e metalli forniscono il contributo più ampio (oltre 9 punti percentuali) al forte incremento tendenziale delle esportazioni. Anche la crescita su base annua dell’import, più marcata di quella dell’export, interessa in modo generalizzato tutti i settori. Per i prezzi all’import, il rialzo congiunturale è dovuto soprattutto alle dinamiche positive di energia e beni intermedi; su base annua, i prezzi tornano a crescere dopo quasi due anni di variazioni tendenziali negative.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Diplomazia

Giappone. Il Parlamento ha ratificato l’adesione al Rcep. – Capolavoro diplomatico.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-03.

Rcep Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership 013

Rcep, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, indica una zona di libero scambio tra 15 paesi asiatici bagnati dall’Oceano Pacifico, più Australia e Nuova Zelanda. È un conglomerato che assomma circa un terzo della popolazione mondiale e poco più di un terzo del pil mondiale.

Adesso siamo solo agli inizi, ma a breve la zona geoeconomica dell’Asia oceanica assurgerà al ruolo di polo principale del mondo.

* * * * * * *

«The Diet on Wednesday approved the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership free trade deal among 15 Asian and Oceanian countries»

«Under the deal, which will create a huge free trade area accounting for some 30% of global gross domestic product and trade, tariffs will be abolished for 91% of products, mainly industrial items»

«RCEP groups the 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations — Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam — plus Japan, China, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand»

«India was one of the founding members but skipped all negotiations from November 2019 due to concerns that its trade deficit with China would grow»

«The free trade deal is a wide-ranging agreement calling for abolishing tariffs on industrial goods, including automobiles, and agricultural products, and writing new rules for e-commerce and intellectual property protection»

«Japan managed to have five agricultural product categories considered sensitive for the country — rice, wheat, beef and pork, dairy products and sugar — exempted from tariff cuts»

«Over some 20 years, the proportion of industrial products exempted from tariffs will rise from 8% to 86% for China and from 19% to 92% for South Korea»

* * * * * * *

«15-nation partnership is expected to cover nearly one-third of the world’s economy, trade and population and to come into effect from early 2022»

«By eliminating tariffs on 91 per cent of goods, the RCEP will create a free-trade zone covering nearly one-third of the world’s economy, trade and population»

«Japan is the second-biggest regional economy outside Asean to give its formal support to the deal»

«Thailand and Singapore have also ratified the agreement»

«India was one of the founding RCEP members but skipped all negotiations from November 2019 because of concern that its trade deficit with China would grow.»

* * * * * * *

La prima cosa che salta immediatamente agli occhi è l’assenza dal Rcep degli Stati Uniti, anche se molti paesi entrati nel Rcep avevano consistenti rapporti con l’America. È nella logica delle cose che con il tempo questi quindici paesi rinsaldino i reciproci rapporti commerciali, ai quali seguirà per forza di cose anche un aggrado politico. Sarà un processo lento e graduale dal quale gli Stati Uniti saranno esclusi.

Per seconda cosa, gli Stati Uniti dovranno usare molta diplomazia, arte nella quale non brillano, nel trattare con gli stati del Rcep, per non far precipitare gli eventi e perderli in modo definitivo. Ci si ricordi che gli americani hanno il vizietto di voler fare la morale a tutto il mondo, ed il mondo non ne può di più.

*

La geopolitica e la geoeconomia del sud est asiatico è mutata.

*

Japan approves far-reaching RCEP free trade deal.

The Diet on Wednesday approved the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership free trade deal among 15 Asian and Oceanian countries.

The RCEP deal was approved at a plenary meeting of the House of Councillors, the upper chamber of the Diet. The House of Representatives, the lower chamber, gave its approval earlier this month.

Under the deal, which will create a huge free trade area accounting for some 30% of global gross domestic product and trade, tariffs will be abolished for 91% of products, mainly industrial items.

RCEP groups the 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations — Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam — plus Japan, China, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

India was one of the founding members but skipped all negotiations from November 2019 due to concerns that its trade deficit with China would grow.

The deal will be Japan’s first economic partnership agreement involving China or South Korea.

The pact will come into force after necessary domestic procedures are completed in at least six of the ASEAN member states and three other countries.

The free trade deal is a wide-ranging agreement calling for abolishing tariffs on industrial goods, including automobiles, and agricultural products, and writing new rules for e-commerce and intellectual property protection.

Japan managed to have five agricultural product categories considered sensitive for the country — rice, wheat, beef and pork, dairy products and sugar — exempted from tariff cuts.

Under the deal, food tariffs will be eliminated gradually, including China’s tariffs on scallops and Indonesia’s tariffs on beef.

Japan will scrap its tariffs on Shaoxing rice wine from China and makgeolli alcoholic drinks from South Korea.

China and South Korea will abolish their tariffs on auto parts in stages. Over some 20 years, the proportion of industrial products exempted from tariffs will rise from 8% to 86% for China and from 19% to 92% for South Korea.

The Japanese government hopes to put the pact into effect as early as possible as it expects the deal to increase the country’s real GDP by 2.7% and create 570,000 jobs.

*


Japan approves world’s biggest free-trade deal after China’s call to boost Asian economy

– 15-nation partnership is expected to cover nearly one-third of the world’s economy, trade and population and to come into effect from early 2022

– Vice-minister of foreign affairs calls for efforts to defend the multilateral trade system and expressed interest in China joining CPTPP

* * *

Japan’s parliament approved joining the world’s largest free-trade deal, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, on Wednesday as signatories aim for it to come into effect from the start of next year.

The approval by Japan’s uper house comes after the lower house gave the green light earlier this month and a day after China called for the deal to be ratified to shore up the economy in the Asia-Pacific.

The China-backed RCEP was signed in November last year and included the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) plus China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. By eliminating tariffs on 91 per cent of goods, the RCEP will create a free-trade zone covering nearly one-third of the world’s economy, trade and population.

It will also be the first deal of its kind involving China, Japan and South Korea, and comes as the three countries struggle to negotiate a trilateral free-trade agreement.

Japan is the second-biggest regional economy outside Asean to give its formal support to the deal.

China ratified the pact in March when the Ministry of Commerce said all members of the RCEP were planning to approve the deal by the end of the year for enforcement from 2022.

Japan’s government said in March that it expected the trade accord to boost the country’s GDP by 2.7 per cent and create 570,000 jobs.

Thailand and Singapore have also ratified the agreement. The deal will go into force 60 days after six of the Asean members and three non-Asean member states ratify it.

At a meeting of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific on Tuesday, China’s vice-minister of foreign affairs Ma Zhaoxu called for efforts to stick to regional economic integration and defend the multilateral trade system.

“China took the lead in the ratification of the RCEP and is ready to push forward with all sides for the early entry into force and implementation,” he said.

Ma also underlined China’s interest in joining the Japan-led Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which is more open and demands higher standards for trade, investment, competition and labour protection than the RCEP.

“We are willing to actively consider joining the CPTPP to inject a new push for the economic integration of the Asia-Pacific region,” he said. 

Wang Huiyao, director of the Beijing-based Centre for China and Globalisation, said the approval by Japan’s parliament sent a signal to the region, especially to Asean, on its support for economic integration despite increasingly complex geopolitical conditions.

“China will welcome the news. It’s a sign of support for regional economic integration. And the Japanese business community is still looking for a chance to cooperate with China, even though we don’t have a free-trade deal with Japan or a trilateral one with South Korea and Japan,” Wang said.

China is aiming to forge “high-standard” free-trade agreements with more partners in the next five years as well as closer cooperation along the industrial chain in the region, including in South Korea and Japan.

Wang Shouwen, China’s vice-minister of commerce, said in March that upon the enforcement of the RCEP, China would strive to speed up talks on the trilateral free-trade agreement.

Liu Jiangyong, an international relations professor at Tsinghua University, said enforcement of the RCEP would ease the way for China’s agricultural exports to Japan and reduce trade barriers to economic integration.

He also said the approval was a matter of procedure and much would depend on progress in the trilateral deal talks.

“Political tensions are expected to be a big restraint on forging the trilateral free-trade deal,” he said.

India was one of the founding RCEP members but skipped all negotiations from November 2019 because of concern that its trade deficit with China would grow.

In June last year, researchers at the Peterson Institute for International Economics found that the RCEP, which took seven years to negotiate, would add 0.4 per cent to China’s real income by 2030, while the trade war with the United States would trim 1.1 per cent, should hostilities at the time persist.

However, a study conducted in 2019 by researchers at the University of Queensland and the Indonesian Ministry of Finance found the RCEP would add just 0.08 per cent to China’s economy by 2030. Over the same period, the trade war with the US would slice 0.32 per cent from its GDP.

Researchers at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences were slightly more bullish on the prospects of the RCEP for China’s economy, estimating that over 10 years it would add 0.22 per cent to real GDP growth and 11.4 per cent to China’s total exports, should the schedule for trade liberalisation unfold as planned.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. Febbraio 21. Produzione Industriale -6.4% anno su anno. – Destatis.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-04-11.

Ghigno 004

In sintesi.

– Production in industry -6.4% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

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Solo per comparazione, la Produzione Industriale cinese nello stesso periodo è aumentata del +35.1%, quella della Malaysia del +1.5%, Singapore +16.4%, Polonia +2.7%, Turkia +11.4%.

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Destatis. Production in February 2021: -1.6% on the previous month. Production still 6% below pre-crisis level.

Pressrelease #176 from 9 April 2021

Production in industry
February 2021 (provisional):
-1.6% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-6.4% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

January 2021 (revised):
-2.0% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-4.0% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

WIESBADEN – In February 2021, production in industry was down by 1.6% on the previous month on a price, seasonally and calendar adjusted basis according to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis).

Compared with February 2020, which was the month before restrictions were imposed due to the corona pandemic in Germany, real production decreased by a calendar adjusted 6.4% in February 2021.

In February 2021, production in industry excluding energy and construction was down by 1.8%. Within industry, the production of capital goods showed a decrease of 3.2% and the production of intermediate goods of 1.0%. The production of consumer goods increased by 0.2%. Outside industry, energy production was down by 1.0% in February 2021 and the production in construction decreased by 1.3%.

In January 2021, the corrected figure on the production in industry showed a decrease of 2.0% (provisional: -2.5%) from December 2020.

The rates of change refer to the production index for industry (2015 = 100). Seasonal and calendar adjustment was made using the X-13 JDemetra+ method.

Basic data and long time series on the production index in industry are also available in the table “Index of production in manufacturing” (42153-0001) in the GENESIS-Online database

Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. Gennaio. Produzione Industriale -3.9% anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-03-11.

Destatis__001

In sintesi.

-2.5% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-3.9% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

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Solo per comparazione.

Eurozona -0.8%, anno su anno, Austria -5.1%, Italia -2.0%, Spagna -2.2%,

Polonia +0.9%, Repubblica Ceka +0.5%, Slovakia +6.8%, Svezia +5.9%.

Cina +7.3%, South Korea +7.5%, India +1.0%, Malaysia +1.7%, Singapore +8.6%, Formosa +18.81%, Turkia +9.0%.

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Destatis. Production in January 2021: -2.5% on the previous month. Production still 4% below pre-crisis level.

Production in industry.
January 2021 (provisional):
-2.5% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-3.9% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)
December 2020 (revised):
+1.9% on the previous month (price, seasonally and calendar adjusted)
-1.0% on the same month a year earlier (price and calendar adjusted)

WIESBADEN – In January 2021, production in industry was down by 2.5% on the previous month on a price, seasonally and calendar adjusted basis according to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). Compared with January 2020, the decrease in calendar adjusted production in industry amounted to 3.9%.

Compared with February 2020, the month before restrictions were imposed due to the coronavirus pandemic in Germany, production in January 2021 was 4.2% lower in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms.

In January 2021, production in industry excluding energy and construction was down by 0.5%. Within industry, the production of capital goods showed a decrease of 0.8% and the production of consumer goods of 3.0%. The production of intermediate goods increased by 0.7%. Outside industry, energy production was up by 0.6% in January 2021. Production in construction declined by 12.2% against the background of the strong increase recorded in December 2020 (revised value: +5.4%) and the end of the value added tax reduction.

In December 2020, the corrected figure on the production in industry showed an increase of 1.9% (provisional: 0.0%) on November 2020.

The rates of change refer to the production index for industry (2015 = 100). Seasonal and calendar adjustment was made using the X-13 JDemetra+ method.

Basic data and long time series on the production index in industry are also available through the table “Index of production in manufacturing” (42153-0001) in the GENESIS-Online database.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Diplomazia, Geopolitica Asiatica

Myanmar. Occasione di accordo politico per l’Asean.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-03-02.

ASEAN–China Free Trade Area. China and ASEAN in blue 001

Asean si auto definisce come ‘One Vision. One Identity. One Community.’

Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar (Burma), Brunei, Cambodia, Laos sono gli stati membri.

«The ASEAN–China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) is a free-trade area among the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the People’s Republic of China.»

«The free trade agreement reduced tariffs on 7,881 product categories, or 90 percent of imported goods, to zero. This reduction took effect in China and the six original members of ASEAN: Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand …. The remaining four countries …. to follow suit»

* * * * * * *

«The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has traditionally had a strict policy of political non-interference in the internal affairs of member states»

«And the association remained true to that principle despite the events of the past five years in member state Myanmar»

«Part of what enabled ASEAN to function as normal regarding Myanmar through the Rohingya crisis was that most of the refugees fleeing the country ended up in Bangladesh, which is not a member of the association»

«Tens of thousands of Rohingya went south by sea, washing up on the shores of Malaysia, Indonesia and other members of the grouping»

«Where the US and the EU have outright condemned the coup and demanded a full reversal of the situation, Indonesia took a more delicate and much more promising approach»

«It called on the military to hold elections later this year, as it promised it would do during the coup, and proposed that the elections be monitored by ASEAN observers»

«This is a wise move for a number of reasons»

«First, the demand goes no further than holding the new military government to its own word»

«Secondly, it gives the military government of Myanmar a way out that does not involve a political concession of having made an error or having done something wrong …. This saves face and that is something that will carry a lot of weight for the generals …. it may shield military leaders from any legal or constitutional liability for having ordered the coup»

«Lastly, this move brings the entire weight of the trading bloc to apply pressure on the military government to leave power in a way that may well prove to be the most effective means to that end, all while nominally maintaining the principle of “non-interference.”»

«It remains to be seen whether this first foray into this area will bear any fruit, but the effort is certainly a noble one and a very well executed one too»

* * * * * * *

Biden orders sanctions on Myanmar generals as key Aung San Suu Kyi aide detained

White House. Executive Order on Blocking Property with Respect to the Situation in Burma

«the military overthrew the democratically elected civilian government of Burma …. undermining the country’s democratic transition and rule of law, constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States.  I hereby declare a national emergency to deal with that threat»

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Gli Stati Uniti vedono nei fatti accaduti in Myanmar, che loro denominano con l’esonimo Burba, un pericolo imminente e reale alla loro sicurezza nazionale, così grave da dichiarare “a national emergency”. Quanto accaduto mette in crisi la loro ideologia, che evidentemente non fa presa sulle altre nazioni: quindi, sanzioni, come ai bei tempi nei quali gli Stati Uniti contavano ancora qualcosa nel mondo.

Quanto sia differente la risposta dell’Asean è lampante.

Rispetta la sovranità nazionale, non impone alcunché, propone una soluzione che contemperi tutte le esigenze.

Questo è ciò che comunemente è denominato essere la diplomazia. Ossia l’arte del reale non disgiunto dal buon senso.

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ASEAN must become political to deal with Myanmar.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has traditionally had a strict policy of political non-interference in the internal affairs of member states. And the association remained true to that principle despite the events of the past five years in member state Myanmar, where the military carried out “clearing operations” against some 1 million civilians belonging to the Rohingya minority. But this will not remain an option for much longer. And the pivot of the transformation will be Myanmar.

Part of what enabled ASEAN to function as normal regarding Myanmar through the Rohingya crisis was that most of the refugees fleeing the country ended up in Bangladesh, which is not a member of the association. But that has not been universally the case. Tens of thousands of Rohingya went south by sea, washing up on the shores of Malaysia, Indonesia and other members of the grouping. Concerns about what is happening in Myanmar had been raised within ASEAN forums by Malaysia and Indonesia, but these efforts were resisted. Now Indonesia is paving the way for a new approach, prompted above all by the recent coup d’etat carried out by the military in Naypyidaw.

Where the US and the EU have outright condemned the coup and demanded a full reversal of the situation, Indonesia took a more delicate and much more promising approach. It called on the military to hold elections later this year, as it promised it would do during the coup, and proposed that the elections be monitored by ASEAN observers.

This is a wise move for a number of reasons. First, the demand goes no further than holding the new military government to its own word. The motivation the military cited for the coup was “electoral irregularities” in the polls last year and its claim was that all it wanted was a “fair” re-run of the election. The presence of ASEAN observers would do much to guarantee a more fair election than one run entirely by the military itself. As such, the move could even fly under the threshold of “political interference” in the internal affairs of Myanmar, either by Indonesia or by ASEAN

Secondly, it gives the military government of Myanmar a way out that does not involve a political concession of having made an error or having done something wrong. This makes it much more likely that it would allow this to happen, as opposed to the explicit demands coming from the West that it should not be in power. This saves face and that is something that will carry a lot of weight for the generals. But, perhaps even more importantly, it may shield military leaders from any legal or constitutional liability for having ordered the coup in the first place. They would thus be allowed to walk away from the path of direct military government in Naypyidaw in a way that means they would not immediately face prison as soon as they yielded power to a civilian government.

Lastly, this move brings the entire weight of the trading bloc to apply pressure on the military government to leave power in a way that may well prove to be the most effective means to that end, all while nominally maintaining the principle of “non-interference.”

Of course, this will in practice be interference: Everyone knows that elections would overwhelmingly return support for parties opposed to the military and its powerbase, primarily the National League for Democracy (NLD) of Aung San Suu Kyi — especially if the elections are allowed to be overseen by ASEAN observers. So for Indonesia and ASEAN to call for a fair election is in effect for them to call for an NLD government; and so ASEAN will have become politicized and a force for democracy in Southeast Asia. And that’s no bad thing.

In time, the institution will likely come to acknowledge this explicitly and even embrace this new political role. It remains to be seen whether this first foray into this area will bear any fruit, but the effort is certainly a noble one and a very well executed one too.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Singapore. Gennaio. Produzione Industriale (Annuale) +8.6%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-02-27.

2021-02-27__ Singapore Produzione 001

Statistics Singapore ha rilasciato il report Produzione Industriale (Annuale) per gennaio 2021.

2021-02-27__ Singapore Produzione 002

2021-02-27__ Singapore Produzione 003

2021-02-27__ Singapore Produzione 004

Come si constata, l’export verso i paesi occidentali od occidentalizzati segna profonde contrazioni, mentre quello verso i paesi del Rcep cresce in modo vistoso. I primi sono in recessione ed i secondi in crescita.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Geopolitica Asiatica

Malaysia. Pil 2021 proiettato tra il +6.7% ed il +9%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-02-18.

Malesia, Indonesia, Stretto di Malacca 001

Cina. Rcep. Non enfatizzato, il vero obiettivo è il controllo del mondo.

Asia. Firmato l’Accordo Rcep. Nasce il più grande mercato libero mondiale.

«The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement in the Asia-Pacific region between the ten member states of ASEAN, namely Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, and five of their FTA partners—Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea. The 15 negotiating countries account for about 30% of both the world’s population and the global GDP, making it the largest trade bloc. It was signed at the Vietnam-hosted virtual ASEAN Summit on 15 November 2020. ….

ASEAN leaders stated that the door remained open for India, which opted out in November 2019, to join later. ….

RCEP potentially includes more than 3 billion people or 45% of the world’s population, and a combined GDP of about $21.3 trillion, accounting for about 40 percent of world trade ….» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

Porsche to set up assembly plant in Malaysia: The Edge

«the United States …. is losing in influence»

«a community of sovereign nations».

Il 2020 ha visto una modesta contrazione del pil della Malaysia, ma tutti gli analisi concordano nell’affermare che esso dovrebbe salire molto bene nel 2021.

«The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting Malaysia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at a rate of 9%»

«HSBC Holdings plc co-head of Asian economics research Frederic Neumann forecast Malaysia’s economy to grow at 6.7% this year»

La Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) è stata una delle opere magistrali di Mr Xi. 15 paesi del sud-est asiatico posti ai bordi dell’Oceano Indiano che formano una zona di libero scambio per il 45% della popolazione mondiale, che produce 21.3 trilioni di Usd come pil.

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IMF Expects Malaysia’s GDP Growth to Bounce Back to 9% in 2021

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting Malaysia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at a rate of 9% next year, the fastest among the five major developing economies in ASEAN. The ASEAN-5 – namely Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam – is expected to witness an average GDP growth of 7.8% during 2021, following a contraction of 0.68% during 2020. Malaysia’s economy is forecast to contract by 1.7% during 2020.

The IMF’s 2021 projection for Malaysia is much higher than Fitch Ratings’ growth forecast of 5.8%, and the body has cautioned for extreme uncertainty around its global growth forecast as the world is battered by the global COVID-19 pandemic and oil price crisis.

IMF has also forecast a global GDP growth of 5.8% for 2021, in contrast to 3% contraction for 2020. IMF cautiously anticipates that consumer confidence and sentiment will turn positive by 2021 and Malaysian households will remain financially sound, with better employment conditions and stable incomes during global and domestic economies recovery period. In terms of economic fundamentals, IMF expects Malaysia to continue to grow, supported by the government’s fiscal discipline and fiscal consolidation, a sustainable current account surplus, healthy foreign-exchange reserves as well as manageable inflationary pressure.

Nevertheless, Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd stated that no emerging markets, including Malaysia, can escape the downside risks of global recession in 2020, as advanced economies fall into recession. As of now, sovereign rating agencies would continue to monitor Malaysia’s macroeconomic developments, focusing on its economic growth, fiscal deficit and government debt, from the impact of COVID-19 and low global oil price.

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HSBC forecasts 6% GDP growth in 2021 for Malaysia, ringgit to hit 3.96 by year-end

The reintroduction of the Movement Control Order (MCO) across major states in Malaysia is expected to pose some challenges to economic activity early in 2021, though experts anticipate the effects to gradually disappear as the year unfolds.

HSBC Holdings plc co-head of Asian economics research Frederic Neumann forecast Malaysia’s economy to grow at 6.7% this year, following an estimated contraction of 5.4% last year.

“The MCO 2.0 in place poses economic challenges in the beginning of the year, but we are quite confident that these economic effects will dissipate quickly over the course of this year, allowing Malaysia’s economy to achieve 6.7% growth,” he said at a press briefing on HSBC’s Asian Outlook for 2021.

HSBC expects another policy rate cut by Bank Negara Malaysia due to the lockdown and its economic impact at the beginning of the year.

From a regional perspective, Neumann expects South-East Asia to register strong growth from the second quarter onwards as the roll-out of vaccines in the region may take longer than some developed markets, which may impede recovery in sectors like tourism.

“There are downside risks if the vaccination programmes are not handled on time, but we think the risk is relatively low. “We look forward to a reasonable normalisation of domestic activity starting in the second half of the year, which is slightly delayed from the normalisation in developed parts of Asia like North-East Asia, Australia and New Zealand, but we think it is coming through,” he added.

On the ringgit, HSBC global head of foreign-exchange research Paul Mackel forecasts the local note to strengthen and trade at RM3.96 against the US dollar by year-end.

He expects the headwinds that are working against the ringgit currently to ease throughout the year, with higher commodity prices supporting the currency further.

“We deem it to be a relatively undervalued currency and that should help bolster the case for the ringgit to appreciate. Perhaps, there may even be some silver lining at some point with regard to the tourism angle as well,” he said.

Mackel expects Asian currencies to be resilient this year as a “benign” US dollar would help alleviate currencies in the region.

HSBC’s preference leans more towards emerging-market (EM) currencies, with the ringgit, Singapore dollar and the Philippines peso likely to stand out this year.

On the equity market, HSBC head of equity strategy for Asia Pacific Herald van der Linde pro- jects the benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI to edge towards 1,780 points by year-end.

He said Malaysia is typically considered to be a “defensive” market due to the good domestic demand for its equities and little volatility in valuation.

“That has changed to a certain extent because you have glove makers who have done phenomenally well.

“It was not a surprise for Malaysia to be the best performing Asean market, which was up 3.6% last year.

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Malaysia. Belt and Roads. La Cina si avvantaggia della desistenza americana.

«The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is one of the largest in scale infrastructure projects in our history, which was proposed by the PRC as far back as 2013»

«Its main aim is to link via roads, railways, deep water ports, wharfs and industrial zones all 5 continents and approximately 130 of the world’s nations, which, on becoming a part of the BRI could promote trade and other activities and thus reap substantial economic benefits»

«The BRI initiative had such a successful start that by 2020, projects worth almost US$4 trillion had already been completed»

«Still, the ambitious nature and global scale of China’s economic expansion caused reservations among some participating countries with low and medium GDPs. On the one hand, these nations viewed the initiative as the only source of funds for financing their own infrastructure projects, and on the other hand, they worried about their growing debts to Beijing»

«the reaction to BRI in countries of South East Asia whose economic ties to China are strengthening with each passing day is noteworthy»

«It is no secret to anyone that some of the biggest projects of China’s global initiative are being implemented in South East Asian countries. In fact, it would suffice to mention the cross-border railway between China and Laos (US$ 6 billion), high speed rail in Indonesia (US$6 billion), the Kyaukpyu deep water port in Myanmar (US$ 7.3 billion) and many others»

«Malaysia is among China’s most important trade partners in South East Asia with the bilateral trade volume of US$124 billion in 2019»