Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Macron. Corte Conti bacchetta il Governo per il debito pubblico.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-06-26.

Fattoria Animali 001

La Francia ha raggiunto un debito pubblico di 2,414.622 miliardi di euro, essendo 102.23% il rapporto debito / pil, con un debito procapite di 36,511 euro. Di interessi deve pagare 55.015 miliardi di euro all’anno.

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Cour des Comptes. 2019 Annual public report

Lo Stability Programme. April 2018 ne è rimasto sconvolto.

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«France’s public auditor has criticized president Emmanual Macron’s decision to loosen the country’s purse strings to try to end months of yellow vest protests »

«The Cour des Comptes warned on Tuesday that the country’s debt level, which is hovering at close to 100 percent, was “worrying” and urged the government to control spending»

«The auditor said the money directed towards the grievances of the yellow vests had not been founded on savings elsewhere»

«In a report, the public auditor said the growing divergence between France and its neighbours on debt reduction was “worrying” and “could lead to a deterioration of the perceived quality of France’s debt among investors”.»

«It criticized the government over its failure curb overspending noting it had the opportunity to take advantage of a spell of growth»

«But this year it is set to rise again above the 3.0-percent mark, increasing to 3.1 percent on the back of a package of tax cuts and income top-ups announced to try to defuse the anger of the anti-government yellow vests»

«The International Monetary Fund also warned last month that France’s debt was “too high for comfort” and called on the government to cut spending»

* * * * * * *

La Cour des Comptes ha pubblicato una severa reprimenda del Presidente Macron, che ha portato il rapporto debito / pil al 102.23%, con un aumento del debito pubblico a 2,414.622 miliardi di euro.

L’Unione Europea, la Commissione Europea e Mr Moscovici non hanno fiatato, chiusi nella omertà che li lega.
Nella Fattoria degli Animali erano tutti eguali, ma i porci erano più eguali degli altri.

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French public auditors warn over rising debt

France’s public auditor has criticized president Emmanual Macron’s decision to loosen the country’s purse strings to try to end months of yellow vest protests.

The Cour des Comptes warned on Tuesday that the country’s debt level, which is hovering at close to 100 percent, was “worrying” and urged the government to control spending.

The auditor said the money directed towards the grievances of the yellow vests had not been founded on savings elsewhere.

In a report, the public auditor said the growing divergence between France and its neighbours on debt reduction was “worrying” and “could lead to a deterioration of the perceived quality of France’s debt among investors”.

It criticized the government over its failure curb overspending noting it had the opportunity to take advantage of a spell of growth.

No French government has balanced the books since the 1970s.

On coming to power in 2017, Macron set about trying to cut the deficit to bring it in line with an EU limit of three percent of GDP, which the eurozone’s second-biggest economy has flouted for the last ten years.

Last year, the deficit fell to a 12-year low of 2.5 percent of GDP, a decline which was greater-than-expected and achieved despite falling growth and purchasing power.

Pledge to balance books revised

But this year it is set to rise again above the 3.0-percent mark, increasing to 3.1 percent on the back of a package of tax cuts and income top-ups announced to try to defuse the anger of the anti-government yellow vests.

The measures are expected to drive up the public debt to 98.9 percent this year.

The government expects to be back on track with deficit reduction next year. It is aiming for a deficit of 1.2 percent by the end of Macron’s first presidential term in 2022 – having apparently given up on its original 2017 campaign pledge to balance the books within five years.

The Cour des Comptes warned against any further let-up in the drive to clean up the country’s finances.

The International Monetary Fund also warned last month that France’s debt was “too high for comfort” and called on the government to cut spending.

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France 24. 2019-06-25. Rising French debt is ‘worrying’, public auditors warn

France’s public auditor on Tuesday warned that the country’s debt level, which is hovering at close to 100 percent, was “worrying” and urged the government to control spending.

France’s debt-to-GDP ratio is set to reach 98.9 percent this year, bucking the downward trend seen in most other eurozone countries after President Emmanuel Macron loosened the country’s purse strings to try end months of often violent “yellow vest” protests.

In a report, France’s Cour des Comptes said the growing divergence between France and its neighbours on debt reduction was “worrying” and “could lead to a deterioration of the perceived quality of France’s debt among investors”.

It chided the government over its failure to take advantage of a spell of growth to significantly rein in overspending, which leads to increased borrowing every year.

“France is far from having eliminated its structural deficit whereas many of its European neighbours have achieved a balance,” it warned in a 150-page report.

No French government has balanced the books since the 1970s.

On coming to power in 2017, Macron immediately set about trimming the deficit to bring it in line with an EU limit of three percent of GDP, which the eurozone’s second-biggest economy had persistently flouted for a decade.

Last year, the deficit fell to a 12-year low of 2.5 percent of GDP, a greater-than-expected decline achieved despite falling growth and purchasing power.

But this year it is set to again rise above the 3.0-percent mark, increasing to 3.1 percent on the back of a package of tax cuts and income top-ups announced to try to defuse the anger of the anti-government yellow vests.

The measures are expected to drive up the public debt to 98.9 percent this year.

The government expects to be back on track with deficit reduction next year. By the end of Macron’s first presidential term in 2022, it is aiming for a deficit of 1.2 percent — a far cry from his 2017 campaign pledge to balance the books within five years.

The Cour des Comptes warned against any further let-up in the drive to clean up the country’s finances.

The International Monetary Fund also warned last month that France’s debt was “too high for comfort” and called on the government to cut spending.

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

G7 Biarritz. Si preannuncia un altro G7 inconcludente.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-06-24.

G7 Leaders Summit in Canada

A fine agosto dovrebbe tenersi a Biarritz la riunione del G7.

Il presidente Macron ha cercato di costruire un’agenda densa dei temi che gli stanno a cuore.

Elysee. A G7 fighting inequality

Elysee. A renewed format for the G7

Elysee. Regions committed to finding solutions

Elysee. G7 Ministers commit to improving access to health care for all

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A tutt’oggi on è dato di sapere se Mr Trump sia o meno presente al summit: non ha ancora risposto alla richiesta di adesione. Di certo si potrebbe soltanto dire che:

– “U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo chose not to attend” alla riunione preparatoria.

– “The Trump administration pushed the G-7 nations to water down a declaration on gender equality last week as part of its broad effort to stamp out references to sexual and reproductive health”

– “Environment ministers of the G7 nations met in France Sunday, a day ahead of the release of what is expected to be another alarming report on the state of the planet …. But Andrew Wheeler, the former coal lobbyist appointed by President Donald Trump to head of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), told the meeting too much attention was being paid to the worst-case scenarios on climate change.»

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Inutile sottolineare come la eventuale assenza di Mr Trump decreterebbe la morte del G7. Ma anche una sua presenza scettica non concorrerebbe a rinvigorire questa istituzione.

Da quanto sembrerebbe di poter capire, Mr Macron ha stilato l’agenda senza quasi consultarsi con gli altri paesi membri, molti dei quali potrebbero avere seri dubbi in proposito.

Poi, i capi di governo che si riuniranno avranno ciascuno le proprie grane.

Mr Trudeau, premier canadese, tra qualche mese andrà incontro alle elezioni politiche che lo vedrebbero sconfitto secondo i sondaggi.

Mr Macron risulterebbe essere indebolito dalla rivolta dei Gilets Jaunes, ma soprattuto dal fatto che nelle ultime elezioni il suo partito sia stato battuto da RN di Marine Le Pen.

Frau Merkel è ancora cancelliera tedesca, ma è reduce da una impressionante serie di rovesci elettorali e si appresta a delle elezioni nei Länder orientali che dovrebbero sancire la morte politica della Cdu.

Al momento in cui si scrive, il Regno Unito non ha ancora eletto il nuovo premier a sostituzione di Mrs May: ma chiunque esso sia avrà forse più problemi dalla gestione della Brexit che non da quella del gender nel globo terraqueo.

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Ad oggi almeno, sembrerebbe preannunciarsi un G7 inconcludente.

Sarebbe in tal caso un altro ridimensionamento alle ambizioni di Mr Macron.


Reuters. Doubts persist over Trump attendance at French G7 summit: French official

«U.S. President Donald Trump did not confirm he would attend August’s summit of the G7 group of rich nations in southwestern France city of Biarritz when he met President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday, a French official said.

A G7 foreign ministers meeting held in Britanny earlier this year was overshadowed when U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo chose not to attend, underscoring how tough agreeing common ground between allies has become at the annual big power summit.

Along with the United States, France and Britain, the group includes Japan, Germany, Italy, Canada and the European Union.

Tensions between the United States and its European allies have meant that where they were once largely in accord, they now seek the lowest common denominator at international gatherings.»

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U.S. Quietly Waters Down Another Communique on Gender Equality

«The Trump administration pushed the G-7 nations to water down a declaration on gender equality last week as part of its broad effort to stamp out references to sexual and reproductive health in international institutions, according to people involved in the process and drafts reviewed by Foreign Policy.

It is only the latest iteration of the administration’s hard-line stance against any language that might suggest approval of abortion in the official documents of international institutions that include the United States. The heavy-handed diplomatic strategy has put Washington at odds with European allies and drawn criticism from women’s advocacy groups for undercutting wider efforts to improve global gender equality.

The Group of 7, representing seven of the most advanced economies in the world, issued a communique on women’s equality this month that was pared down in some sections from initial drafts circulated in advance among diplomats and experts.

U.S. officials raised red lines on what should be axed from the communique, including a seemingly innocuous section praising the G-7’s Gender Equality Advisory Council, an independent group of experts and diplomats working on gender equality, and language on reproductive health.

The measures follow a pattern that has played out at the United Nations, where the Trump administration last month went as far as threatening to veto a U.N. measure to prevent sexual violence over language on sexual and reproductive health (though last-minute diplomatic wrangling averted the veto).

U.S. officials under President Donald Trump have argued that the phrase “sexual and reproductive health” refers specifically to abortion. Experts and advocacy groups disagree and point to the phrase being used consistently in international institutions and treaties for decades.

The G-7—which includes the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan—has traditionally avoided contentious debates on gender-related health issues as part of the group’s broader discussions on political and economic priorities. Recent G-7 summits, normally carefully choreographed and diplomatic affairs, became anything but under Trump. At the 2018 G-7 summit in Canada, Trump refused to sign the joint statement and derided Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “Very dishonest & weak” in scathing tweets after the summit over disagreements on trade.»

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Cnbc. Gloomy forecast for Davos: crises aplenty, but few world leaders

«-  Crises to keep Trump, Macron, May away from Davos

– Somber mood expected at Jan 22-25 elite gathering

– Trade row, recession fears and global tensions dominate agenda

An array of crises will keep several world leaders away from the annual World Economic Forum in Davos next week, which takes place against a backdrop of deepening gloom over the global economic and political outlook.

Anxiety over trade disputes, fractious international relations, Brexit and a growth slowdown that some fear could tip the world economy into recession are set to dominate the Jan. 22-25 Alpine meeting and the mood will be somber.»

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The Local. G7 environment ministers meet to discuss climate crisis

«Environment ministers of the G7 nations met in France Sunday, a day ahead of the release of what is expected to be another alarming report on the state of the planet.

Ministers from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States gathered for the two-day meeting in the northeastern city of Metz.

They were due to discuss measures to tackle deforestation, plastic pollution and the degradation of coral reefs and try to form alliances between nations to act on them.

Joining the ministers were delegations from the European Union as well as Chile, Egypt, the Fiji Islands, Gabon, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Niger and Norway. ….

But Andrew Wheeler, the former coal lobbyist appointed by President Donald Trump to head of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), told the meeting too much attention was being paid to the worst-case scenarios on climate change.»

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Japan Times. 2019-04-05. Glaring U.S. absences raise questions about relevance of G7

Foreign and interior ministers from the Group of Seven countries are gathering in France this week to try to find ambitious solutions to world security challenges. Putting a dampener on that are two glaring American absences: U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen.

The fact that ranking U.S. officials are skipping the Thursday-Saturday meetings in Paris and the resort of Dinard raises questions about the G7’s relevance and effectiveness at solving the very international issues it has laid out as crucial, including fighting terrorism and human trafficking.

The interior ministers’ meetings started Thursday in Paris with a lunch focusing on migration issues, human trafficking and the fight against smugglers.

U.S. President Donald Trump has made no secret of his disdain for the G7, especially since Russia was pushed out of the gathering of major world economies after its annexation of Crimea in 2014. The U.S. absences signal that the Trump administration has downgraded the group — which also includes France, Canada, Japan, Germany, Italy and the U.K. — in its list of priorities.

Pompeo is in Washington this week, far from French shores, hosting NATO’s foreign ministers to mark the alliance’s 70th anniversary. Nielsen is staying behind to deal with border issues in the U.S.

Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland, meanwhile, announced she is attending both the NATO meeting and the G7 summit in Dinard.

In fact, alliances are fraying everywhere, even at NATO as Pompeo shines a spotlight on America’s involvement in the military alliance. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg acknowledged internal NATO disagreements this week on trade, climate change and the Iran nuclear deal, but insisted the 29 allies are united in their commitment to defend each other.

France, which took over the G7’s presidency in January, is hosting a summit of interior ministers in Paris on Thursday and Friday, which overlaps with a summit of G7 foreign ministers on Friday and Saturday in Dinard.

U.S. Homeland Security official Claire Grady is standing in for Nielsen at the interior ministers’ meetings. Deputy Secretary of State John J. Sullivan will stand in for Pompeo, discussing “a broad range of issues, including the deteriorating situation in Venezuela, destabilizing Iranian behavior in the Middle East, the responsible conduct of states in cyber space, and the final denuclearization of North Korea,” the State Department said.

It said these conversations will “set the stage” for the August G7 summit France will host in the southwestern city of Biarritz.

Last June, Trump roiled the -7 meeting in Canada by first agreeing to a group statement on trade only to withdraw from it while complaining that he had been blindsided by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s criticism of Trump’s tariff threats at a news conference. In an extraordinary set of tweets aboard Air Force One, Trump threw the G7 summit into disarray and threatened to escalate his trade war just as Canada released the G7’s official communique.

France’s Foreign Ministry listed the main issues under discussion this week as cybersecurity, the trafficking of drugs, arms and migrants in Africa’s troubled Sahel region, and fighting gender inequality. That includes ways to prevent rape and violence against women, especially in Africa.

The French presidency says the interior ministers’ meeting aims to set joint commitments on security and counterterrorism, including how to deal with citizens who have joined Islamic State militants in Syria and Iraq, or their wives and children.

Many IS fighters have been captured and imprisoned in those countries.

A top official at the French Interior Ministry stressed that the instability of the region, after U.S.-backed forces declared military victory over the Islamic State group in Syria last month, still poses a challenge. The problem has grown more urgent since Trump announced his intention to reduce the U.S. military presence in Syria.

“We need to coordinate our policies to prevent that risk. We must avoid a dispersion of foreign fighters, avoid that they gather together elsewhere,” the official said, speaking anonymously ahead of the meeting in accordance with French government practice.

The U.S. has called for countries to take back their citizens and put them on trial, if necessary, but Western countries have largely refused to take back their detained citizens. France says French fighters must be tried wherever they committed their crimes.

U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters, who are holding some of the IS fighters, have called for an international tribunal for IS detainees.

The G7 interior ministers will also discuss ways to fight terrorism and extremism on the internet, possibly by imposing regulations on internet giants like Facebook, Twitter and Google.

Interior ministers from Niger and Burkina Faso are joining Thursday’s lunch on migration to put a focus on Africa’s Sahel region, a source of migration to Europe as well as a transit region and destination for smuggling.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Macron. Nathalie. Loiseau lo imita e la cacciano fuori dall’EU.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-06-15.

Animali. Bocca aperta. Civetta. 001

Dio li fa e poi li accoppia, recitava un vecchio proverbio.

«Sostengo con convinzione la sincerità di Nathalie Loiseau e ne apprezzo l’intelligenza politica. Tuttavia, non si può affatto dire che la sua prima esperienza da parlamentare europea sia cominciata con il piede giusto»


«President Emmanuel Macron’s handpicked candidate to lead a new centrist alliance in the European Parliament said on Thursday she was pulling out of the race, in a blow to French government influence in the parliament»

«Nathalie Loiseau was quoted by Belgian media disparaging allies in Renew Europe, formed by Macron’s party and the liberal ALDE, and saying she planned a sweeping overhaul of the grouping, the third biggest in the European Parliament»

«I would rather be a unifying force for the group than a divisive one, …. I therefore will not run for the party’s leadership »

«Macron’s party, the pro-European Republique En Marche, which was only formed in 2016, won 21 French seats in May’s European election, leaving it in a strong position to call the shots in its union with the longer-established ALDE»

«the new liberal grouping says it can be a kingmaker in EU policymaking and deciding top jobs such as the new head of the European Commission.»

«Loiseau was quoted in Belgium’s Le Soir and France’s Le Canard Enchaine calling ALDE’s longtime leader Guy Verhofstadt “an old git with pent-up frustrations” and branding the conservative EPP’s candidate for Commission president an “ectoplasm”.»

«An official in Macron’s office sought to downplay Loiseau’s exit from the race, saying the president’s ambitions were in no way diminished»

* * * * * * *

Mr Macron aveva nominato Mrs Nathalie Loiseau alla guida degli europarlamentari di Lrem a bruxelles.

«La donna, capolista del partito del leader transalpino La République En Marche alle ultime elezioni per l’europarlamento e attualmente presidente dei deputati di tale formazione politica eletti a Strasburgo, avrebbe infatti impiegato i toni incriminati durante un recente incontro riservato a Bruxelles con 12 giornalisti francofoni»

«Nell’incontro in questione, l’eurodeputata francese, incaricata da Macron di condurre negoziati con i rappresentanti delle formazioni politiche centriste e liberali rappresentate all’assemblea di Strasburgo al fine di creare un nuovo grande gruppo parlamentare moderato, avrebbe, in primo luogo, attaccato la cancelliera tedesca Angela Merkel. Quest’ultima sarebbe stata etichettata dall’ex ministro transalpino come “un problema per l’Europa”.»

«Sempre durante la conversazione a Bruxelles con i 12 cronisti francofoni, la Loiseau avrebbe poi “preso in giro” Guy Verhofstadt, ex premier belga nonché più volte leader dell’Alde, il gruppo politico del parlamento europeo che ha finora riunito gli esponenti dei partiti liberali del Vecchio continente. All’ex primo ministro di origini fiamminghe la fedelissima di Macron avrebbe attribuito l’epiteto di “vecchio frustrato, che da quindici anni non riesce a procacciarsi alcun incarico di peso”.»

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Si narra che Mr Macron abbia subito un raptus omicida.

Avrebbe distrutto due pareti dell’Eliseo a testate contro il muro.

Colagogo perfetto, la performance della sua pupilla gli ha prodotto una serie subentrante di coliche biliari.

Scegli umana femmina, perché femmina è bello. invece di far fare il diplomatico ad uno dei tanti bravissimi diplomatici francesi.

Definire Frau Merkel una …. Ma siamo matti da legare??

Definire Mr Verhofstadt “vecchio frustrato, che da quindici anni non riesce a procacciarsi alcun incarico di peso”.

Ma chi mai si crederebbe di essere Mrs Nathalie Loiseau?? Pensava forse di essere Mr Macron?

Bene, ora Mr Macron si è giocato la faccia anche nell’europarlamento e nell’Alde.


Reuters. 2019-06-14. Macron suffers setback in EU parliament as party pays price for gaffes

President Emmanuel Macron’s handpicked candidate to lead a new centrist alliance in the European Parliament said on Thursday she was pulling out of the race, in a blow to French government influence in the parliament.

Nathalie Loiseau was quoted by Belgian media disparaging allies in Renew Europe, formed by Macron’s party and the liberal ALDE, and saying she planned a sweeping overhaul of the grouping, the third biggest in the European Parliament.

Loiseau described the comments, made during an off-record briefing to journalists in Brussels, as “pure fiction” but the leak damaged her credibility just as jostling for the leadership of the bloc intensified.

“I would rather be a unifying force for the group than a divisive one,” Loiseau wrote in a message to the group seen by Reuters. “I therefore will not run for the party’s leadership.”

Macron’s party, the pro-European Republique En Marche, which was only formed in 2016, won 21 French seats in May’s European election, leaving it in a strong position to call the shots in its union with the longer-established ALDE.

With neither of the mainstream conservative and social democrat parties holding a majority, the new liberal grouping says it can be a kingmaker in EU policymaking and deciding top jobs such as the new head of the European Commission.

Loiseau was quoted in Belgium’s Le Soir and France’s Le Canard Enchaine calling ALDE’s longtime leader Guy Verhofstadt “an old git with pent-up frustrations” and branding the conservative EPP’s candidate for Commission president an “ectoplasm”.

Her remarks on seeking to revamp the centrist grouping meanwhile alarmed those in the alliance wary of Macron gaining too much influence.

An official in Macron’s office sought to downplay Loiseau’s exit from the race, saying the president’s ambitions were in no way diminished.

“On the contrary, it is a sign of unity. We are focusing on other positions in order not to give the impression that we hold a crushing grip (on the grouping),” the official said.

A spokesman for Renew Europe said there were now four names left in the race to head the group, including Sweden’s Fredrick Federley and the Netherlands’ Sophie in ‘t Veld. The group plans to elect a new leader on June 18.

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“Ha preso in giro i politici europei”. Bufera sulla fedelissima di Macron

La donna, capolista del partito del leader transalpino La République En Marche alle ultime elezioni per l’europarlamento e attualmente presidente dei deputati di tale formazione politica eletti a Strasburgo, avrebbe infatti impiegato i toni incriminati durante un recente incontro riservato a Bruxelles con 12 giornalisti francofoni. Il contenuto della conversazione è stato però subito pubblicato dal quotidiano belga Le Soir, che ha dato grande risalto alle parole al vetriolo usate allora dalla Loiseau contro l’establishment dell’Unione.

Nell’incontro in questione, l’eurodeputata francese, incaricata da Macron di condurre negoziati con i rappresentanti delle formazioni politiche centriste e liberali rappresentate all’assemblea di Strasburgo al fine di creare un nuovo grande gruppo parlamentare moderato, avrebbe, in primo luogo, attaccato la cancelliera tedesca Angela Merkel. Quest’ultima sarebbe stata etichettata dall’ex ministro transalpino come “un problema per l’Europa”.

Sempre durante la conversazione a Bruxelles con i 12 cronisti francofoni, la Loiseau avrebbe poi “preso in giro” Guy Verhofstadt, ex premier belga nonché più volte leader dell’Alde, il gruppo politico del parlamento europeo che ha finora riunito gli esponenti dei partiti liberali del Vecchio continente. All’ex primo ministro di origini fiamminghe la fedelissima di Macron avrebbe attribuito l’epiteto di “vecchio frustrato, che da quindici anni non riesce a procacciarsi alcun incarico di peso”.

In base a quanto riportato da Le Soir, l’esponente de La République En Marche avrebbe successivamente sbeffeggiato Manfred Weber, candidato del Partito Popolare Europeo alla guida della Commissione Ue. Il politico tedesco sarebbe stato bollato dalla Loiseau come “un ectoplasma” in quanto “privo di carisma e di qualità vincenti”.

Sempre nell’incontro riservato con i giornalisti francofoni, la fedelissima del presidente transalpino non avrebbe risparmiato stilettate neanche all’indirizzo dei suoi stessi compagni di partito. L’eurodeputato de La République En Marche Jean Arthuis sarebbe stato infatti qualificato dalla Loiseau come un individuo “gonfio di rancore e di invidia”.

All’indomani della pubblicazione delle rivelazioni in questione da parte de Le Soir, la diretta interessata ha reagito negando con forza di avere mai pronunciato quegli epiteti. Tuttavia, la donna ha contestualmente annunciato di non volere più continuare a condurre in prima persona i negoziati per la formazione di Renew Europe, nuovo gruppo parlamentare a Strasburgo di ispirazione centrista e liberale destinato a rimpiazzare l’Alde.

Jean Arthuis, collega di partito di costei nonché uno dei “bersagli” delle esternazioni incriminate, ha commentato con queste parole la bufera mediatica abbattutasi sulla stretta collaboratrice di Macron: “Sostengo con convinzione la sincerità di Nathalie Loiseau e ne apprezzo l’intelligenza politica. Tuttavia, non si può affatto dire che la sua prima esperienza da parlamentare europea sia cominciata con il piede giusto”.

Nel frattempo, i media d’Oltralpe accusano la fedelissima dell’inquilino dell’Eliseo di avere arrecato, mediante gli epiteti riportati da Le Soir, “disonore alla Francia”. Ad esempio, il settimanale L’Obs ha biasimato l’ex ministro di avere rovinato, dando prova di “scarsissimo senso delle istituzioni”, l’immagine di “pacatezza e attitudine al duro lavoro” sfoggiata finora dai rappresentanti transalpini negli organi Ue.

A difesa della donna si è invece schierato il network radiofonico parigino Europe 1, che, tramite un editoriale, ha condannato il “massacro politico” avviato dalla maggioranza delle emittenti e delle testate nazionali contro l’eurodeputata de La République En Marche.

Per il momento, nessun commento ufficiale sulla vicenda in cui risulta coinvolta la Loiseau è stato rilasciato dall’Eliseo. Tuttavia, a detta di alcune indiscrezioni apparse ultimamente sulle pagine del giornale di sinistra Libération, Macron sarebbe “andato su tutte le furie” in seguito alla pubblicazione delle presunte parole sprezzanti verso l’establishment Ue impiegate dalla sua fedelissima.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Elezioni Europee. Le cosche stanno andando ai materassi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-28.

Mafia 911

Cerchiamo di riassumere, anche se al momento attuale non è ancora dato di conoscere l’esatta composizione dei gruppi parlamentari: non si sa, per esempio. quale collocazione vorrà dare Mr Orban a tutti i suoi europarlamentari.

Ricordiamo come sia il Consiglio Europeo a dover proporre il presidente della Commissione ed i relativi commissari: gli europarlamentari avranno il compito di esaminare le proposte e, nel caso, di approvarle.

Sicuramente si formeranno degli schieramenti, ma si tenga sempre presente che gli stati hanno il diritto di veto: opzione da usarsi con la massima prudenza, ma pur sempre possibile.

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– Il partito popolare europeo scende dai 221 agli attuali 180 seggi: perde 41 seggi, -18.55%

– Il partito socialista europeo scende dai 191 seggi del 2014 agli attuali 145, perde 46 seggi, -24.08%.

– La sinistra – GUE/Ngl – scende dai 52 agli attuali 38 seggi: perde 14 seggi, -26.92%.

– Il blocco liberal senza l’Aldeppe e pse scende da 412 deputati agli attuali 325. prde quindi 87 seggi, -21.12%.

*

– In Francia il Rem, il partito del presidente Macron, ha conseguito il 22.41% dei voti, cui conseguono 21 seggi, mentre Rn, il partito della Mrs Le Pen, si è piazzato al 23.31%, conquistandosi 23 seggi.

– In Germania la Cdu è scesa dal 35% al 28.9%, e la Spd è crollata dal 27% al 15.8%.

– Gli europarlamentare inglesi di Mr Farage sembrerebbero poi essere non troppo propensi all’Unione Europea.

Punto della situazione.

– La passata coalizione ppe e pse ha perso i numeri per formare una maggioranza. Rimedierà cooptando l’Alde, ma la perdita di 87 seggi (-21.12%) è una sonora sconfitta, checché se ne voglia dire.

– Mr Macron in Francia e Frau Merkel in Germania, almeno fino a tanto che questa resterà cancelliere, sono anatre zoppe: deboli e screditati, quindi con voci che si odono flebilmente a Bruxelles.

– Se nessuna componente sia in grado di imporre il proprio candidato, pur tuttavia conserva forza sufficiente per porre il veto alle scelte altrui. Non ci si stupisca quindi se alla fine la Presidenza della Commissione sia offerta ad un outsider, per esempio Mrs Lagarde.

*

Vi sono poi i convitati di pietra.

In autunno dovrà essere rinnovato il Governatore Draghi, e con lui il suo entourage: non sarà battaglia da poco.

Poi, quasi invisibile sullo sfondo, c’è appollaiato Mr Trump. Sarebbe impensabile, data la situazione, che non si sentisse il suo parere. E come non sentire l’illuminato parere di Mr @@@@, capo cupola felicemente regnante? Non farlo sarebbe uno sgarro.

Nota.

Ci si tolga dalla testa che sia una battaglia di ideali per il benessere ed il progresso del popolo, per un mondo ecologicamente pulito e che viva in pace.

Sono in ballo migliaia di miliardi: tutti vorrebbero la loro parte e lasciare gli altri a bocca asciutta sempre che non li ammazzino.


Macron and Merkel at odds over EU top jobs after European elections

«German backing of MEP Manfred Weber to replace Juncker has met with resistance from France.

Paris and Berlin appear on a collision course over the replacement of Jean-Claude Juncker as president of the European commission after poor results for the centre-right in the European elections damaged Angela Merkel’s choice for the post.

The German chancellor’s backing for the German MEP Manfred Weber, who leads the European People’s party of which her CDU party is a member, is facing tough resistance from the French president Emmanuel Macron in the post-election jockeying for top jobs.

The EU heads of state and government, including Theresa May, are due to meet on Tuesday night to kickstart their discussions over the leadership of the bloc’s institutions after a set of election results that weakened the grip of the traditional centrist parties on the levers of power in Brussels.

The European People’s party (EPP) remains the largest in the parliament, but during a disappointing night its haul of seats plummeted from 221 in 2014 to 180, prompting Weber to concede that the “centre is shrinking”.

The Socialists and Democrats group’s 191 seats five years ago fell to 145 despite surprisingly strong results in Spain and the Netherlands, where they topped the polls. ….»

*


Manfred Weber: We have to find consensus with France

«The proposals by France and Germany are on the table: Macron has made far-reaching proposals for the reform of the eurozone. The German government has made commitments in the coalition agreement, which also calls for a “departure for Europe.” Now it is about finding a reasonable and workable middle ground. This means, that a limited further development of the euro rescue fund ESM towards a European Monetary Fund is the key reform to come in the area of the economic and monetary union.

I think it is right that Berlin clearly defines the national interests – especially, the Christian Democrat faction. But it is also clear that in this phase we have to find consensus with France. When it comes to the planned European Monetary Fund: When a decision on new aid programs has to be taken, the veto of the German Bundestag must be preserved.»

*


France and Germany clash over future EU leadership

«France and Germany on Monday clashed over the future leadership of the EU after European elections produced a fragmented parliament and triggered a race to secure the top jobs in the world’s largest trading bloc. Nationalist, liberal and green parties across the EU have gained seats at the expense of centrist parties, such as German chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU party, which have dominated the parliament over the past four decades. President Emmanuel Macron’s liberal party on Monday called for “a European Commission president candidate who can build a robust majority way beyond the partisan lines” — suggesting it wanted an alternative to Manfred Weber, the Germany-backed candidate for the commission.»

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Francia. Amministrative 2020. Strada in salita per Mr Macron.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-21.

2019-05-22__Francia__Amministrative__001

Se sicuramente il controllo del governo nazionale sia obiettivo primario di ogni partito politico, una valida rappresentatività sul territorio è di importanza non secondaria, se non altro perché permette l’addestramento dei quadri di partito all’azione politica.

La République En Marche!, il partito politico del presidente Macron, ha sicuramente vinto la presidenza ed una larga quota dell’Assemblea nazionale, ma stenta fortemente a prender campo nel controllo delle amministrazioni periferiche.

Queste, però, rivestono in Francia una peculiare importanza, perchè sono gli eletti nei loro quadri a essere i grandi elettori del Senato. Poi, la diffusione sul territorio aumenta ed alimenta il potere gestibile al centro.

*

La strada di La République En Marche! sembrerebbe essere tutta in salita, in vista delle elezioni amministrative dell’anno entrante.

Al momento Rem ha sindaci solo a Besançon ed a Lyon.

Secondo gli ultimi sondaggi, Rem avrebbe buone possibilità a

– Lyon, con Gérard Collomb,

– Toulouse, con Jean-François Portarrieu.

A Parigi Anne Hidalgo (sinistra) guida con il 22% delle propensioni al voto, contro Benjamin-Blaise Griveaux (Rem) con il 21%: è quindi un testa a testa.

*

Sicuramente di qui ad un anno molte cose accadranno, ma le prospezioni attuali sembrerebbero essere poco lusinghiere per Mr Macron.

Ma si faccia molta attenzione: chi sia debole politicamente in casa propria conta ben poco nell’Unione Europea.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Macron vs Merkel. Il fu asse francogermanico.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-12.

Malato 001

«The sick man of Europe is now Germany»


Da quando è stata costituita, la Unione Europea è stata governata dal duopolio francogermanico. Alle riunioni vis-a-vis, riservate, si succedevano quelle pubbliche per convincere i vassalli, ed il gioco era fatto.

La divisione era semplice: uno a me, uno a te, e questi briciolotti li lasciamo beccare agli altri.

Per decenni l’Unione Europea ha mantenuto l’agricoltura francese con una marea di sovvenzioni, e la Francia ha accondisceso alla politica finanziaria tedesca.

Ma nulla è eterno a questo mondo.

«Cooperation between Paris and Berlin has long been a requirement for a unified Europe»

*

«Two days after he took office as France’s president, Emmanuel Macron flew to Berlin. …. Mr. Macron had been elected to transform France, and he was convinced that real change in his country would happen only through better European integration»

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«Two years on, the results are nowhere to be seen and the charm has given way to exasperation»

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«He openly admitted for the first time that France disagreed with Germany on Brexit strategy, energy policy, climate change, trade negotiations with the United States — and the list could have been longer»

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«the German growth model has perhaps run its course»

*

«In his view, Germany, having made belt-tightening reforms that were right for its own economy, had fully benefited from the imbalances created within the eurozone»

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«Emmanuel Macron no longer wants to be treated as the chancellor’s junior partner, who would keep quiet if not asked for his opinion»

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«The new tone toward Germany comes not only from Mr. Macron, nor from Paris»

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«political paralysis in Berlin»

*

«Several governments in the eurozone want Germany, the biggest economy in the bloc, to relax its fiscal rules and invest in infrastructure and innovation in order to provide stimulus»

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«The sick man of Europe is now Germany»

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«Ms. Merkel’s response to Mr. Macron’s early proposals on union reforms had been “not a response but a flat rejection»

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«The chancellor treated him like a little boy»

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«French officials think the eurozone is at risk of collapsing if it does not correct its inequalities, while the Germans are happy with the status quo»

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«The German model needs to reinvent itself»

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«But beyond concern that German conservatism hurts the eurozone, there is a genuine sense of alarm»

* * * * * * * *

Per concludere degnamente, Mr Macron ha detto a chiare lettere che non supporterà la candidatura di Manfred Weber, pupillo di Frau Merkel.


The New York Times. 201905-08. Macron Puts Germany on Trial

Cooperation between Paris and Berlin has long been a requirement for a unified Europe. But now they are at odds on fundamental policies.

*

PARIS — Two days after he took office as France’s president, Emmanuel Macron flew to Berlin. It was May 16, 2017, and France and Germany needed a reset. Joined at the hip, the two nations cannot make Europe work if they don’t work together. Mr. Macron had been elected to transform France, and he was convinced that real change in his country would happen only through better European integration.

Hope was in the air as the young, ambitious but untested French president met Angela Merkel, the stern three-term German chancellor. Ms. Merkel quoted the German poet Hermann Hesse: “A magic dwells in each beginning.” Ever the realist, however, she cautiously added, “Charm lasts only if there are results.”

Two years on, the results are nowhere to be seen and the charm has given way to exasperation. When Ms. Merkel and Mr. Macron met on the sidelines of a Berlin summit on the western Balkans, on April 29, their talk was kept to a strict minimum — 15 minutes. Asked at a news conference about the French-German relationship four days earlier, Mr. Macron answered in unusually blunt terms. He openly admitted for the first time that France disagreed with Germany on Brexit strategy, energy policy, climate change, trade negotiations with the United States — and the list could have been longer. Though he chose to stop there, he vowed to voice his differences firmly for the sake, he said, of “fruitful confrontations.”

Mr. Macron went on to suggest that “the German growth model has perhaps run its course.” In his view, Germany, having made belt-tightening reforms that were right for its own economy, had fully benefited from the imbalances created within the eurozone; especially hard hit were the Southern economies like Spain, Greece and Italy, for which austerity was bitter and destabilizing. These imbalances have worsened, Mr. Macron pointed out, and they now “run counter to the social project” he supports.

“This is a whole new tone from Paris,” noted Michaela Wiegel, the longtime Paris correspondent of Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. “Emmanuel Macron no longer wants to be treated as the chancellor’s junior partner, who would keep quiet if not asked for his opinion.”

There is some irony that this newfound assertiveness from the French president toward Germany comes at a time when six months of social unrest from the so-called Yellow Vests — who have taken to the streets, sometimes violently, over France’s growing gap between rich and poor — have seriously weakened Mr. Macron’s leadership. But it is precisely because his house is on fire that he is losing patience with his biggest, wealthiest neighbor.

The new tone toward Germany comes not only from Mr. Macron, nor from Paris. Grievances differ, but they all point to one problem: political paralysis in Berlin. Several governments in the eurozone want Germany, the biggest economy in the bloc, to relax its fiscal rules and invest in infrastructure and innovation in order to provide stimulus. “When it gets cold, one should turn on the heat,” one prominent European Union politician pleaded privately. But Germany, sitting on a huge trade and fiscal surplus on top of its ever-increasing savings, is reluctant to act.

When Europe is assailed from all quarters in a world in turmoil, when most governments in the union are fighting a populist wave, Germany’s ruling coalition is behaving as if it were still navigating the calm seas of the early 2000s. “Germany has not moved for the past 10 years,” a German senior executive working for a foreign company told me angrily. “The sick man of Europe is now Germany.”

Many French experts blame Mr. Macron for placing all his bets on close cooperation with Ms. Merkel at the outset instead of reaching out to a wider range of allies within the European Union. Back in 2017, in order to win her over to his far-reaching plan for Europe, he intended to institute the domestic reforms, starting with new labor laws, that his predecessor, François Hollande, had been too weak to pass.

But German skepticism over France’s ability to deliver “was impossible to overcome,” Shahin Vallée, an economist and a former adviser to Mr. Macron, wrote in The Guardian. Similarly, the head of the German trade union D.G.B., Reiner Hoffmann, told the newspaper Der Spiegel last week that Ms. Merkel’s response to Mr. Macron’s early proposals on union reforms had been “not a response but a flat rejection.” He added, “The chancellor treated him like a little boy.”

For Jean-Marie Guéhenno, a French foreign policy expert, “It was naïve of France to think that it would be enough to imitate Germany precisely when the German model was reaching the end of its cycle.” Philippe Martin, an economic adviser to the French government, asserts that the two countries “don’t speak the same economic language,” noting, “It is difficult to negotiate when you don’t have the same model in mind.”

This is where the problem lies: French officials think the eurozone is at risk of collapsing if it does not correct its inequalities, while the Germans are happy with the status quo — because they have gained so much from it. In Paris, disappointment over Germany’s failure to follow through on European reforms under Ms. Merkel is turning into resentment.

Yet the party may be over even for Germany. Challenged by competition from China and slowed by global trade tensions, the export-powered German economy is sputtering. The German model needs to reinvent itself. Within Germany, a few audacious experts are starting to question its economic orthodoxy and to challenge one of its most sacred cows: the “schwarze Null,” or “black zero,” a 10-year-old fiscal rule that bars the government from running budget deficits. So far, though, politicians are turning a deaf ear.

Of course, there may be a measure of jealousy among Europeans, including the French, who were not brave enough to reform their economies when the weather was fairer. But beyond concern that German conservatism hurts the eurozone, there is a genuine sense of alarm, shared by many foreign policy experts in Berlin, about how Germany sees its role in a changing world — and how it sees the role of Europe, in which it is now so deeply anchored. When it comes to protecting its car industry, its gas pipeline with Russia or its political decisions on which countries to sell arms exports, Germany’s unilateral behavior is increasingly at odds with Ms. Merkel’s much-acclaimed commitment to multilateralism.

In his list of items of discord, Mr. Macron mentioned neither Germany’s retreat on military spending, despite multiplying threats from Russia, China and terrorists and heavy pressure from President Trump, nor did he discuss its reluctance to take a stand on major strategic and security issues, perhaps because these subjects are so sensitive. Or perhaps because Mr. Macron has not lost hope in his efforts to make Germany more European, rather than making Europe more German.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Weber. Michel Barnier gli sta soffiando via la candidatura.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-11.

2019-05-08__Barnier__001

«Never Weber»


La Commissione Europea è uno dei più ambiti centri di potere nell’Unione Europea.

Formalmente, la sua candidatura dovrebbe essere formulata dal Consiglio Europeo, cioè dal consesso dei capi di stato e di governo, “tenendo presente i risultati elettorali“.

Per consuetudine, ma non per legge o regolamento, il parlamento europeo uscente ha già nominato gli Spitzenkandidat, ossia i candidati dei singoli gruppi alla carica di Presidente della Commissione Europea. Ma non è assolutamente detto che quest’anno si celebri ancora codesta cerimonia.

Dovrebbe essere evidente l’anomalia di questa procedura, che cerca di vanificare l’effetto delle elezioni. Ciò appare ancor più evidente di questi giorni, ove le proiezioni elettorali darebbero i partiti tradizionali in forte regresso: Partito popolare europeo e Partito socialista europeo perderebbero circa un centinaio di seggi.

Mafred Weber è lo Spitzenkandidat del Partito popolare: la sua candidatura è stata imposta a suo tempo da Frau Merkel, ma la voce di questa donna suona sempre più debole a Bruxelles.

*

Spesso in politica è più utile non avere nemici che avere degli amici.

Weber invece, così come il suo entourage, di nemici ne ha molti: non parliamo poi di Frau Merkel.

Se era semplicemente scontato che Polonia, Ungheria e Romania lo vedessero come il fumo negli occhi, sarà ben difficile che l’Italia lo appoggi, sempre che non si facciano accordi davvero molto convenienti. Il Regno Unito anch’esso sembrerebbe non essere favorevole alla candidatura di Herr Weber. Poi, nell’europarlamento, ci saranno anche i brexiters, assatanati come non mai.

Ma adesso anche Mr Macron ha preso posizione:

«Macron, who is looking to create a new centrist-liberal force in Brussels, has already signaled through his advisers that he will strongly oppose the EPP’s lead candidate …. A French person cannot vote for Weber»

* * * * * * *

Si voglia o meno, piaccia o meno, gli equilibri sono cambiati.

L’asse liberal socialista, Ppe e Pse non è più in grado di controllare gli eventi a piacer suo, e le alleanzae hanno dei costi.

Il crollo del Ppe e del Pse è il vero evento nuovo di queste elezioni.


Politico. 2019-05-08. Michel Barnier steps out of the shadows

«Brexit negotiator looks to ride a ‘Never Weber’ wave into the EU’s top job»

*

«For Barnier and his supporters, a path would most clearly open up if other leaders join French President Emmanuel Macron in adopting a “Never Weber” posture.»

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«Macron, who is looking to create a new centrist-liberal force in Brussels, has already signaled through his advisers that he will strongly oppose the EPP’s lead candidate, and it would take just a few other leaders, particularly liberals and socialists, siding with him at the special summit in late May to effectively kill Weber’s chances»

*

«the EPP is once again expected to be the largest party in Parliament, giving it — according to the Spitzenkandidat process — first claim to the Commission presidency. But the EPP and the Party of European Socialists (PES), long the controlling forces in Brussels, are both expected to lose seats, as voters continue to show disdain toward mainstream parties.»

*

«To say that one party is going to decide doesn’t make sense …. A French person cannot vote for Weber. …. After the Brexit mission, he is widely known,…. He also has the advantage of being more European than French. He’s become a European persona»

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«Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, who at 32 is the EU’s youngest national leader and is a member of the EPP, has endorsed Weber. But discussing the EU’s future in a recent interview with Die Presse, Kurz did not specifically demand Weber’s appointment»

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«Instead, he said, what’s most needed is “generational change at the top.” Weber is 46.»

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«On Monday, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a member of the EPP, put another potential obstacle in Weber’s path, saying he would no longer support him, in part because of the broader rift that led the EPP to suspend Orbán’s Fidesz party.»

*

«Another unpredictable variable is Brexit, which is not yet finished business»

*

«The Council’s nomination is made by qualified majority — a calculation that gives Britain, the bloc’s third-largest country by population, potentially heavy sway provided it does not abstain. While some EU officials and diplomats said they expect the U.K. to stay out of the process, one senior official said no firm commitment has been sought nor has one been given. Legally, Britain would have every right to vote.»

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Sibiu. Riunione dei nobili decaduti. Unione Europea scarmigliata.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-10.

2019-05-10__Trump__Europa__001

Tanto chi conta è proprio quello che non c’è né tanto meno potrebbe esserci: Mr Trump.


«Macron definisce addirittura gli Spitzenkandidaten dei “candidati da tinello”. Proprio così. Questo il ragionamento: “Io non sono favorevole agli Spitzenkandidaten. E sono coerente: gli Spitzenkandidaten andavano bene se avessimo avuto delle liste europee transnazionali, ma i maggiori partiti dell’Ue sono stati contrari. E allora ora abbiamo dei candidati da tinello, non parlano di questioni europee ma di materie di casa loro. Ecco perchè non mi sento vincolato ai candidati scelti dai partiti…”. Anche perchè, aggiunge godendo di una piccola rivincita visto che lui era favorevole alle liste transnazionali, “i leader dei partiti sono meno legittimati dei capi di stato e di governo”.Boom»

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«Voices critical of the Spitzenkandidat system grew at the EU leaders’ informal summit held this week in Nagyszeben (Sibiu), Romania. European Council President Donald Tusk is the latest important European leader to express concern about the system»

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«Tusk has practically turned his back on party agreements by stating that geographical and demographical aspects should be taken into account – perhaps as much as or even more than party decisions – when choosing the leader and members of the next Commission»

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«He made his intentions clear in order to avoid a repeat of 2014 when it took three summits over the course of three months to reach an agreement»

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«The summit has brought several critical claims about the Spitzenkandidat system to light, putting more pressure on EPP’s favoured candidate, Manfred Weber»

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«the EU treaties require the Council, acting by a qualified majority, to nominate for Parliament’s approval a Commission president, “taking account of the results of the European Parliament election.”»

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«French President Emmanuel Macron expressed his opposition to the system on Thursday, saying he thinks it is “not the right approach” and that he “would not feel bound by nationality.”»

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«spitzenkandidat …. a little bit out of democratic procedures and treaties»

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«Weber himself defended the process and insisted that “ignoring Spitzenkandidaten would harm EU democracy.”»

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«To top it all off, rumors have spread that former EPP Vice-President Michel Barnier might run for the position.»

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«E’ ormai ufficiale che i loro nomi sulla scheda indicheranno soltanto dei semplici candidati al Parlamento europeo, il cui destino è tutto da decidere e passerà tra le mani dei capi di Stato e di governo»

*

«Antonio Tajani: “Barnier è un amico, ho lavorato molto con lui, è stato vicepresidente della Commissione, coordinatore della Ue per Brexit. E’ un bravo politico e una brava persona, ma io sono anche il vicepresidente del Ppe, il mio candidato Weber e continuerò a sostenerlo”. »

*

«All’Italia spetterà un solo commissario, nessuno azzarda previsioni su ulteriori incarichi. Agricoltura è la casella sognata dalla Lega, che però non disdegnerebbe l’Immigrazione. Industria è quella che vorrebbero i cinque stelle»

*

«il processo dello Spitzenkandidat, voluto dal Parlamento europeo affinchè siano gli elettori con il loro voto a indicare il presidente della Commissione, non sta in piedi»

* * * * * * *

Cerchiamo di riassumere sintetizzando.

– La Commissione Europea è fermamente intenzionata a trattenersi il potere di nominare Presidente e Commissari della Commissione Europea, tenendo in non cale gli eventuali spitzenkandidaten formulati dall’europarlamento uscente.

– Se, come potrebbe sembrare. Ppe e Pse dovessero perdere realmente un centinaio di seggio, un’alleanza con Alde diverrebbe giocoforza, ma questo altererebbe tutti gli equilibri.

– Nessuna nazione è più in grado di condizionare le altre: la rosata di nomi sarà quindi frutto di trattative, ove i compensi potrebbero riversarsi sulle situazioni meno aspettate.

– Alla fine, più che i nomi scelti, saranno gli accordi fatti ad essere determinanti.

– La candidatura di Manfred Weber è al momento alquanto poco probabile.

*


Ansa. 2019-05-10. Merkel, sostengo Weber alla presidenza Commissione Ue

‘Procedura Spitzenkandidat trova sue basi nei trattati’

SIBIU (ROMANIA) – “Sostengo il candidato di punta del Ppe Manfred Weber” per la carica di presidente della Commissione europea, “ma ci sono capi di Stato e di governo che sono critici o non sono d’accordo con la procedura degli Spitzenkandidat”, un percorso per il quale c’è comunque “una base nei Trattati Ue”. Così la cancelliera tedesca Angela Merkel, alla conferenza stampa al termine del vertice di Sibiu.

*


Ansa. 2019-05-10. Macron, mi batterò per miglior presidente Commissione Ue

‘Gli Spitzenkandidat sono i candidati tecnici’

SIBIU (ROMANIA) – “Condivido la visione di Tusk, di arrivare alle nomine subito dopo le elezioni, in modo veloce ed efficace”. Per la presidenza della Commissione europea “dobbiamo scegliere il miglior candidato possibile, ci saranno dei compromessi, ma io mi batterò per avere il miglior candidato, coerente con ambizioni europee forti, e persone capaci, che porteranno valore aggiunto al progetto europeo”. Così il presidente francese Emmanuel Macron, che non concorda con la procedura dello Spitzenkandidat, “quelli – ha indicato – sono i candidati tecnici”.

*


Ansa. 2019-05-10. Tusk, vertice straordinario dei leader Ue il 28 maggio

Nuova leadership a giugno. Se necessario ricorrerò a voto

SIBIU (ROMANIA) – Il presidente del Consiglio europeo Donald Tusk, al termine del vertice di Sibiu, ha annunciato un vertice straordinario dei 28 capi di stato e di governo per il 28 maggio, cioè, “all’indomani del voto per il Parlamento europeo”, per “avviare il processo delle nomine dell’Ue”, che intende “condurre in modo veloce”, per arrivare a “nominare la nuova leadership dell’Ue a giugno”. “Se non si dovesse raggiungere il consenso – ha avvertito Tusk – non esiterò a ricorrere al voto”.

“Il percorso per la nomina” della nuova leadership “dovrà essere veloce, efficace, e secondo i nostri Trattati. Se fosse difficile raggiungere il consenso, non mi sottrarrò dal mettere queste decisioni al voto”, ha spiegato Tusk. Il presidente del Consiglio europeo ha spiegato che “l’equilibrio geografico” per le nomine “è un punto chiaro nei Trattati”, ricordando che la leadership istituzionale deve essere capace “di difendere i Paesi più piccoli e più deboli”. Durante la conferenza stampa, Tusk ha mostrato un paio di guanti gialli da portiere, spiegando che gli erano stati dati in regalo dalla stella del calcio romena Helmut Duckadam, che gli ha anche dato delle dritte sul gioco in difesa.

“L’Italia è intenzionata a recitare il ruolo che le spetta: è la seconda azienda manifatturiera in Europa e il terzo sistema economico nell’eurozona, dovrà recitare un ruolo non secondario”. Così il premier Giuseppe Conte, da Sibiu, ha risposto a chi gli chiedeva quale sarà il ruolo dell’Italia nella nuova tornata di nomine europee.

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Huffpost. 2019-05-10. A Sibiu i leader Ue affossano la corsa di Weber e tutti gli Spitzenkandidat

Anche Conte d’accordo che dà la disponibilità a trattare a Merkel e Macron. Il 28 maggio vertice straordinario: alla presidenza della Commissione Francia e Germania sognano Barnier

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Il prossimo presidente della Commissione Ue deve “avere grandi ambizioni per l’Unione Europea, deve avere delle competenze da portare nel progetto europeo” e deve essere scelto “rispettando le indicazioni degli elettori”. Al termine del vertice di Sibiu, Emmanuel Macron traccia il profilo del successore di Jean Claude Juncker. Naturalmente, quando gli viene chiesto se quello illustrato possa essere l’identikit di Michel Barnier, il presidente francese si ritira: “Troppo presto per fare nomi”. Eppure al summit europeo in questa cittadina della Transilvania, nei tantissimi bilaterali di questo vertice che cade proprio nel 69esimo anniversario della dichiarazione di Robert Schuman da cui nacque il processo di unificazione europea, il nome del francese Barnier, attuale negoziatore della Brexit, è il più quotato. Di fatto, il vertice di Sibiu affossa senza tanti complimenti la candidatura di Manfred Weber, capolista del Ppe per la presidenza della Commissione: lui e tutto il processo che gira intorno agli Spitzenkandidaten sono di fatto finiti a poche settimane dalle elezioni.

E’ ormai ufficiale che i loro nomi sulla scheda indicheranno soltanto dei semplici candidati al Parlamento europeo, il cui destino è tutto da decidere e passerà tra le mani dei capi di Stato e di governo. A Sibiu il presidente del Consiglio europeo Donald Tusk convoca un vertice straordinario già per il 28 maggio: a 48 ore dalle elezioni, prima analisi del voto e calcio di inizio alla partita.

Qui in Transilvania solo i leader del Ppe difendono Weber nelle dichiarazioni ufficiali, per salvare le apparenze. Da Angela Merkel: “Io supporto Manfred Weber, che questo sia chiaro”. Ad Antonio Tajani: “Barnier è un amico, ho lavorato molto con lui, è stato vicepresidente della Commissione, coordinatore della Ue per Brexit. E’ un bravo politico e una brava persona, ma io sono anche il vicepresidente del Ppe, il mio candidato Weber e continuerò a sostenerlo”. Dietro le quinte, la musica è diversa.

Merkel ne ha parlato con Macron e ha voluto sondare anche gli umori di Giuseppe Conte in un bilaterale che dall’entourage del premier italiano definiscono “fitto”. Perchè i voti degli eletti del Movimento cinquestelle all’Europarlamento faranno gola per il risiko della cariche Ue: non saranno pochi, malgrado il calo nei sondaggi. Conte offre la sua disponibilità al confronto. A fine vertice anche lui sega il ramo degli Spitzenkandidaten: “E’ un criterio, ma non l’unico”. Sia in Italia che in Europa, la scommessa è che sarà la Lega di Matteo Salvini a rimanere fuori dai giochi, in quanto il Ppe in prevalenza non vuole siglare intese con i sovranisti. Qui a Sibiu anche l’iterlocutore di Salvini, Viktor Orban, ne ha preso atto, all’assemblea dei Popolari e nel suo bilaterale con Tusk.

“Il rischio dell’isolamento noi ce l’abbiamo sempre: è il nostro complesso, quello di essere isolati – dice Conte – In realtà però poi, come vedete, non siamo mai isolati in nessuna partita e confideremo di non esserlo neppure qui”, nelle nomine dei vertici dell’Ue nella prossima legislatura, “però bisogna lavorare”. L’ennesima sfida con Salvini è sfilargli il posto nelle trattative europee sulle nomine. All’Italia spetterà un solo commissario, nessuno azzarda previsioni su ulteriori incarichi. Agricoltura è la casella sognata dalla Lega, che però non disdegnerebbe l’Immigrazione. Industria è quella che vorrebbero i cinque stelle. Tutta carne che finirà sul fuoco della resa dei conti tra Lega e Cinquestelle dopo il voto.

A Sibiu comunque si parte dalla presidenza della Commissione. Il problema di Barnier è che finora è legato alla Brexit, processo ancora aperto, ufficialmente rimandato al 31 ottobre, tardi. Il Parlamento europeo deve votare sul nuovo presidente della Commissione a metà luglio, questo prevedono le regole. L’inghippo fa massa nei bilaterali, tantissimi come ogni volta che si tratta di decidere i ‘top jobs’ dell’Ue. Solo Conte, oltre che con Merkel, parla anche con Macron, con lo spagnolo Pedro Sanchez, con il presidente della Commissione europea Jean Claude Juncker, con il quale però il focus è la preoccupazione europea per i conti pubblici italiani.

Lo dicono un po’ tutti: il processo dello Spitzenkandidat, voluto dal Parlamento europeo affinchè siano gli elettori con il loro voto a indicare il presidente della Commissione, non sta in piedi. “Non è nei trattati”, se la sbriga il polacco Tusk, interessato a far prevalere invece le prerogative del consiglio: saranno i leader tra loro a decidere il presidente, pescandolo magari dal primo partito alle urne, che stando ai sondaggi dovrebbe essere il Ppe, Barnier è perfetto anche come appartenenza politica.

Macron definisce addirittura gli Spitzenkandidaten dei “candidati da tinello”. Proprio così. Questo il ragionamento: “Io non sono favorevole agli Spitzenkandidaten. E sono coerente: gli Spitzenkandidaten andavano bene se avessimo avuto delle liste europee transnazionali, ma i maggiori partiti dell’Ue sono stati contrari. E allora ora abbiamo dei candidati da tinello, non parlano di questioni europee ma di materie di casa loro. Ecco perchè non mi sento vincolato ai candidati scelti dai partiti…”. Anche perchè, aggiunge godendo di una piccola rivincita visto che lui era favorevole alle liste transnazionali, “i leader dei partiti sono meno legittimati dei capi di stato e di governo”.Boom.

Gli elettori “non hanno idea di chi siano” gli Spitzenkandidaten, taglia corto il premier lussemburghese Xavier Bettel. I nomi proposti sono “una scelta dei partiti, non una scelta degli eletori. I giornalisti e noi parliamo di Spitzenkandidaten. Ma chiedete ai miei elettori: non hanno idea di chi siano gli Spitzenkandidaten”. “Sono fuori dalle procedure previste dai Trattati”, sentenzia la presidente della Lituania, Dalia Grybauskaite. Il premier greco Alexis Tsipras fa anche una considerazione politica: serve un presidente della Commissione “che sostenga l’unità, la democrazia, e la solidarietà dell’Ue, che sia contro il neoliberalismo, l’austerità e l’approccio xenofobo di alcune forze di destra che stanno prendendo quota in Europa. E non è Weber, questa è la mia posizione”.

Saranno dunque i capi di Stato e di governo a decidere chi guiderà la Commissione, ma anche chi guiderà il Consiglio e il Parlamento, nonchè il governatore della Bce alla scadenza di Mario Draghi a fine anno. Le cariche europee – che comunque devono essere approvate dall’Eurocamera – rientrano infatti in un puzzle complessivo che cerca un equilibrio di “provenienze geografiche, politiche, competenze”, elenca Tusk. Il punto è che il percorso annunciato a Sibiu fa fuori gli Spitzenkandidaten a meno di una settimana dal dibattito organizzato dal Parlamento europeo per il 15 maggio nell’emiciclo di Bruxelles tra tutti icapilista che in teoria corrono per la presidenza della Commissione: oltre al Popolare Weber, anche Frans Timmermans per i socialisti, Marghrete Vestager per i liberali (l’Alde in realtà ne ha indicati diversi tra cui Guy Verhofstadt), Jan Zahradril per i Conservatori e riformisti. Insomma, da questo vertice sotto la presidenza di turno rumena arriva un po’ uno schiaffo all’Europarlamento: non è il primo nè l’ultimo da parte dei leader.

Il vertice si conclude con l’approvazione all’unanimità di una dichiarazione in dieci punti, tra i quali difendere “un’Europa unita e solidale”, che sia risoluta nel prendere “decisioni congiunte”, che assicuri lo stato di diritto e “la salvaguardia della democrazia e del proprio stile di vita”, “equità”, “riduzione delle disparità esistenti tra gli Stati membri”, “competitività nell’ambito del commercio internazionale”. Niente di vincolante. Appuntamento al 28 maggio: il processo dovrà essere “rapido, efficace ed in accordo con i nostri trattati: se sarà difficile ottenere il consenso, non mi esimerò dal mettere queste decisioni ai voti a giugno”, dice Tusk. Oggi ha vinto lui e gli Stati nazionali, come sempre.

*


Hungary Today. 2019-05-10. Weber to Fall? More and More Leaders Question the Spitzenkandidat System

Voices critical of the Spitzenkandidat system grew at the EU leaders’ informal summit held this week in Nagyszeben (Sibiu), Romania. European Council President Donald Tusk is the latest important European leader to express concern about the system.

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Tusk has practically turned his back on party agreements by stating that geographical and demographical aspects should be taken into account – perhaps as much as or even more than party decisions – when choosing the leader and members of the next Commission. He made his intentions clear in order to avoid a repeat of 2014 when it took three summits over the course of three months to reach an agreement.

The summit has brought several critical claims about the Spitzenkandidat system to light, putting more pressure on EPP’s favoured candidate, Manfred Weber. As Politico noted earlier, the EU treaties require the Council, acting by a qualified majority, to nominate for Parliament’s approval a Commission president, “taking account of the results of the European Parliament election.”

French President Emmanuel Macron expressed his opposition to the system on Thursday, saying he thinks it is “not the right approach” and that he “would not feel bound by nationality.”

Others also joined him, including Luxembourg PM Xavier Bettel: “Ask my voters — they have no clue who’s the spitzenkandidat.” Bettel added that the process “was a mistake from the beginning” and claimed it cannot function without proper transnational lists. Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė told reporters that the process is “a little bit out of democratic procedures and treaties.”

As expected, Angela Merkel stood by Weber once again: “I support Manfred Weber, to make this very clear.” Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz also defended the current system, claiming that any changes would run the risk of “being undemocratic.” Weber himself defended the process and insisted that “ignoring Spitzenkandidaten would harm EU democracy.”

Weber is under pressure for a number of reasons, one being Viktor Orbán’s recent announcement. The PM stated that he would no longer be supporting Weber due to comments the politician made on German TV. To top it all off, rumors have spread that former EPP Vice-President Michel Barnier might run for the position.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Macron ha pubblicato il programma elettorale di Renaissance.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-09.

Macron 0801

Mr Macron ha pubblicato il programma elettorale per le prossime elezioni europee.

Ne riportiamo solo la prima parte, data la lunghezza del documento.

«Jamais depuis la Seconde Guerre mondiale, l’Europe n’a été aussi nécessaire.

Et pourtant, jamais elle n’a été autant en danger. Certains

veulent

la détruire. Ils prônent le repli nationaliste qui ne règle rien. D’autres se contentent du statu quo au mépris des espoirs des peuples. Le 26 mai, les Européens peuvent faire un autre choix : celui de la Renaissance de l’Europe. C’est ce choix que nous vous proposons.

Nous sommes fiers d’être Européens.

Nous savons ce que nous devons à l’Europe. Elle a garanti la paix après les conflits, la démocratie après les dictatures, la prospérité de plusieurs générations.

Mais l’Europe d’hier peine dans le 21e siècle. Elle est entravée par la frilosité des gestionnaires. Elle est dépassée par les défis écologiques, économiques ou migratoires. Elle n’a pas été pensée pour répondre aux attentes des citoyens d’aujourd’hui.

Elle n’est pourtant pas le problème. Elle peut même redevenir notre solution.

Pour cela, elle doit reprendre le contrôle de son destin.

Pour donner à l’écologie la priorité et ne pas laisser aux générations à venir une planète en perdition ; pour faire de l’Europe une puissance respectée qui défend ses intérêts et tire la mondialisation vers le haut ; pour organiser la fin de l’évasion fiscale qui mine notre pacte social ; pour relever le défi migratoire en protégeant nos valeurs et nos frontières ; pour préserver la paix et assurer notre souveraineté ; pour rendre l’Europe aux citoyens et la construire avec les peuples.

Les 79 propositions de notre projet sont nées de nos rencontres avec les Français. Toutes sont ambitieuses, concrètes et réalisables sans qu’il nous faille promettre des financements impossibles ou des sorties de l’Europe absurdes. Nos candidats les porteront avec conviction et engagement. Ils porteront la voix des Français pour que la France pèse en Europe et améliore notre quotidien. Avec cette élection, avec vous, nous pouvons reprendre le contrôle du destin de l’Europe le 26 mai.

FAIRE DE L’EUROPE UNE PUISSANCE VERTE

L’urgence écologique est là. L’année 2018 a été la plus chaude de notre histoire, avec une fonte record de la banquise, des incendies de la Grèce à la Suède et les trois quarts de nos départements frappés par la sécheresse.

La Terre a déjà perdu plus de la moitié de ses animaux sauvages en 40 ans et ce sont maintenant près de 20 000 îles qui pourraient disparaître sous les eaux dans les années à venir.

L’activité humaine souille notre air, nos océans, nos cours d’eau et nos sols. Toutes les 10 minutes, un Français meurt prématurément du fait de la pollution. Nous sommes la dernière génération à pouvoir agir. Nous sommes aussi la première à avoir toutes les solutions en main pour réconcilier écologie et économie, environnement et agriculture. C’est pourquoi la transition vers ce nouveau modèle est notre priorité.

LA PROPOSITION PRINCIPALE

Nous investirons massivement dans la

transition écologique et solidaire.

Au moins 1 000 milliards d’euros sont nécessaires d’ici 2024 pour développer les énergies et les transports propres, rénover les logements et accompagner la reconversion des travailleurs des secteurs en transition.

De la Banque centrale à la Commission, toutes les institutions européennes doivent avoir le climat pour mandat.

  • – Nous créerons une Banque du climat et orienterons l’épargne des Européens vers la croissance verte.

  • – Nous consacrerons 40% des dépenses européennes à la transition écologique.

  • – Nous rendrons le budget européen 100% compatible avec l’Accord de Paris.

  • – Nous compléterons le Pacte de Stabilité avec un Pacte de Soutenabilité pour ne laisser à nos enfants ni dette écologique, ni dette financière.»

* * *

«Renaissance platform calls for empowering the European Parliament and attaching conditions to EU funds»

*

«Under the banner “Projet Renaissance,” it features nine main proposals, including increased investment in environmental policy, imposing a tax on Big Tech across Europe, and moves toward a European army»

*

«Renaissance proposes giving more power to the European Parliament.»

*

«his campaign proposes making access to European funds conditional on “the respect of rule of law,”»

*

«Suggestions like setting up a European climate bank, overhauling the Schengen zone, reinforcing Frontex (the EU’s border and coast guard agency) and uniting around a European identity were first revealed in Macron’s op-ed calling for a “European Renaissance” in April»

*

«I’m not sure that the French have been focused on the election, there was the great debate, the [Yellow Jacket] protests every Saturday»

*

«Millions of printed programs will be sent out to voters Thursday»

* * * * * * *

Questo programma ricalca pari pari quello che Mr Macron presentò a suo tempo, For European renewal, e che fu bocciato immediatamente.

Germania ripudia in toto il progetto europeo di Macron

«No matter how charming the French are — in France, it’s always and above all about French interests»

*

«CDU’s Kramp-Karrenbauer says ‘nein’ to European centralism»

*

Merkel Party Chief Sets Limits on Macron’s Ambitions for Europe

*

Si vorrebbe sottolineare solo alcuni passi.

«Au moins 1 000 milliards d’euros sont nécessaires»

Mr Macron richiede all’Unione Europea soltanto mille miliardi: si sta ridimensionando fin troppo. È solo un obolo della Misericordia.

Sia l’aumento dei potere conferiti all’europarlamento sia il vincolare l’erogazione dei fondi EU alla visione liberal dell’Unione Europea potrebbero essere possibili solo ed esclusivamente riscrivendo i Trattati dell’Unione. Su tali materia né l’europarlamento né la Commissione Europea hanno potere alcuno.


Politico. 2019-05-09. Macron unveils plan for Europe

Renaissance platform calls for empowering the European Parliament and attaching conditions to EU funds.

*

PARIS — Emmanuel Macron’s La République En Marche unveiled its European Parliament election program on Wednesday, becoming the last major French political party to do so.

Under the banner Projet Renaissance,” it features nine main proposals, including increased investment in environmental policy, imposing a tax on Big Tech across Europe, and moves toward a European army.

The program maintains the Macron tradition of borrowing ideas from the left and right, quoting Jacques Delors, the socialist former president of the European Commission, while calling for more border controls and reinforcing the repatriation of migrants.

Like Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, its main rival in the upcoming election, Renaissance proposes giving more power to the European Parliament. Macron’s party wants to empower it to propose new laws, however, unlike the National Rally, it does not want to scrap the European Commission.

Renaissance also suggests making European institutions more democratic and transparent by capping the number of MEP terms per person to three and giving European citizens the right to initiate laws through petitions that garner more than 1 million signatures.

Nevertheless, and in line with the stance Macron has taken against populists and nationalists in Europe, his campaign proposes making access to European funds conditional on “the respect of rule of law,” in what is a likely reference to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

On defense, Renaissance proposes advancing “toward the European army,” a topic that is far from having unanimous support in the EU. It adds that “every country must keep its national army and its capacity to launch military operations … but we must progress toward a common intervention capacity.”

Much of the rest of the proposals in the program have already been laid out in public by either Macron or his lead candidate Nathalie Loiseau. Suggestions like setting up a European climate bank, overhauling the Schengen zone, reinforcing Frontex (the EU’s border and coast guard agency) and uniting around a European identity were first revealed in Macron’s op-ed calling for a “European Renaissance” in April.

Macron made his first foray into the campaign Tuesday evening, when he attended a working dinner with Renaissance candidates and reminded them of the high stakes in the upcoming election. The list, under Loiseau’s leadership, has been either stagnating or slightly falling in recent polls and she has had a hard time generating enthusiasm, with only 18 percent of respondents to an Elabe poll in April saying they have a positive view of her.

But En Marche officials maintain that French people only really start paying attention to the European election in the last three weeks of the campaign.

“I’m not sure that the French have been focused on the election, there was the great debate, the [Yellow Jacket] protests every Saturday,” Loiseau told French radio Sunday, to justify the delay in revealing the election program.

Millions of printed programs will be sent out to voters Thursday, to coincide with Europe Day, according to a Renaissance campaign official.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Francia. Elezioni Europee. Duello Le Pen – Macron.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-08.

2019-05-06__Francia__001

«The apparent lack of enthusiasm amongst intended left-wing voters seems to be part of a broader phenomenon of voter apathy with regard to the European elections in France. Overall, a mere 39 percent of the French electorate are “quite certain to vote” on May 26, the Elabe poll indicated»

*

«One survey by pollster Elabe, published on April 30 by French media network BFMTV, showed Macron’s party coming out on top with 22.5 percent of the vote, with Le Pen’s RN a close second at 21.5 percent.»

*

«However, another poll, published on May 2 by OpinionWay, put RN on top with 24 percent of the vote and a three-point lead over LREM»

*

«If Macron’s party were to finish second to Le Pen’s now, it would reverse the dynamic of the 2017 presidential election and deal a severe blow to Macron’s ambition to lead a progressive revival of pro-European liberals against national populists in France and across the EU»

*

«Never have we seen European elections with such high stakes for a French president»

*

«two themes stand out: issues relating to sovereignty such as control of migratory flows and the fight against terrorism, on the one hand, and environmental issues on the other»

*

«France’s right-wing party, Les Républicains (LR), which has moved in a socially conservative direction since electing Laurent Wauquiez as its leader in 2017, is projected to come third in the Elabe poll, with 15.5 percent of voting intentions – up by 1.5 points from its standing in a March 27 poll»

*

«By contrast, supporters of France’s divided and flagging left-wing parties – all polling in single digits – seem much less convinced. Just 63 percent of intended voters for Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far-left La France Insoumise (polling at 8 percent) are certain that they will cast their ballots thus, according to the Elabe data»

* * * * * * *

In questo particolare momento politico, particolarmente fluido, Mr Macron avrebbe bisogno di un grande successo elettorale per consolidare la sua posizione domestica e per dar peso a livello europeo alle proprie idee.

Dovrebbe dimostrare di ave contenuto l’offensiva lanciatagli dai Gilets Jaunes e dai sindacati, di aver superato le sequele del caso Benalla, e di aver ammortizzato il niet tedesco ai suoi piani europei.

Difficile fare una stima, ancorché approssimata, ma se non riuscisse a passare la soglia del 40% queste elezioni europee dovranno essere considerate un severo smacco per Mr Macron.

Non solo. L’anno prossimo si terranno le elezioni amministrative, che si preannunciano per lui tute in salita, se non altro perché il suo partito, La République En Marche, non ha ancora avuto il tempo di consolidarsi sul territorio. Ma il controllo della periferia politica è peraltro essenziale, essendo questa la grande elettrice del senato.

*

Mancano poco meno di tre settimane al voto, e finalmente si potrà ragionare sui numeri usciti dalle urne.

*


France 24. 2019-04-04. Low-stakes European election in France – but not for Macron and Le Pen

Polling data suggests that the May 26 European election in France will see a battle for first place between Macron’s and Le Pen’s parties, low turnout, a disappointing result for a Yellow Vest list, and a drubbing for France’s fractured left.

A deadline to declare candidacies for the forthcoming European election expired on Friday with President Emmanuel Macron’s ruling La République En Marche (LREM) and Marine Le Pen‘s far-right Rassemblement National (RN) running neck-and-neck ahead of the May 26 vote, according to French polling institutes.

One survey by pollster Elabe, published on April 30 by French media network BFMTV, showed Macron’s party coming out on top with 22.5 percent of the vote, with Le Pen’s RN a close second at 21.5 percent.

The figures are similar to the results in the first round of the 2017 presidential election, in which Macron led with 24 percent of the vote, while Le Pen trailed at 21.3 percent.

However, another poll, published on May 2 by OpinionWay, put RN on top with 24 percent of the vote and a three-point lead over LREM.

Then called the Front National, Le Pen’s party claimed a resounding victory at the last European election in 2014, taking nearly 25 percent of the vote at a time when Macron’s party didn’t even exist.

Anything less than first place ‘a failure for Le Pen’

“If Macron’s party were to finish second to Le Pen’s now, it would reverse the dynamic of the 2017 presidential election and deal a severe blow to Macron’s ambition to lead a progressive revival of pro-European liberals against national populists in France and across the EU,” said Jim Shields, a professor of French politics at Warwick University, in an interview with FRANCE 24.

“Never have we seen European elections with such high stakes for a French president. And having come first in the last European elections of 2014, anything less now would seem like failure for Le Pen,” he continued.

With regard to the policy terrain on which the campaign is being fought, “two themes stand out: issues relating to sovereignty such as control of migratory flows and the fight against terrorism, on the one hand, and environmental issues on the other”, Bernard Sananès, president of the Elabe Institute, told AFP.

France’s right-wing party, Les Républicains (LR), which has moved in a socially conservative direction since electing Laurent Wauquiez as its leader in 2017, is projected to come third in the Elabe poll, with 15.5 percent of voting intentions – up by 1.5 points from its standing in a March 27 poll, marking the biggest change between the two surveys.

The April 30 poll suggests that those top three parties benefit from committed electoral bases: 79 percent of RN voters, 76 percent of LR voters and 74 percent of LREM supporters said they are sure of their choice.

Left-wing parties ‘more like saplings than trees’

By contrast, supporters of France’s divided and flagging left-wing parties – all polling in single digits – seem much less convinced. Just 63 percent of intended voters for Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far-left La France Insoumise (polling at 8 percent) are certain that they will cast their ballots thus, according to the Elabe data.

This figure sinks to 56 percent when one turns to the fallen giant of France’s left, the Socialist Party (PS), and as low as 47 percent for Generation.s, the party founded and led by Benoît Hamon, who took a miserable 6 percent of the vote as the Socialists’ 2017 presidential election candidate. Both parties now risk missing out on the 5 percent threshold to enter the European Parliament.

Europe Écologie Les Verts, an environmentalist platform that tends to do well in European elections, fared better in the Elabe survey, polling at 9 percent, though just over half of its supporters said they were sure of their choice.

This failure of individual left-wing parties to attract committed supporters stems from the “inchoate nature of their programmes; it’s difficult to see what [PS head of list Raphael] Glucksman and Hamon are doing over the long term: their parties seem like groupuscules to be amalgamated in the future – more like saplings than trees,” Andrew Smith, a professor of French politics at the University of Chichester, postulated in an interview with FRANCE 24.

European elections ‘viewed as second-order’

The apparent lack of enthusiasm amongst intended left-wing voters seems to be part of a broader phenomenon of voter apathy with regard to the European elections in France. Overall, a mere 39 percent of the French electorate are “quite certain to vote” on May 26, the Elabe poll indicated.

For the first time, the heads of the French party lists took part in a televised debate on April 4. However, in a sign of the electorate’s apathy, the debate attracted a mere 1.9 million viewers, 9 percent of the audience – making it only the fourth most-watched programme in that time slot.

At present “there is a general, growing distrust of the political system and the political class – it’s a broad trend, not just in France,” Yves Sintomer, a professor of political science at Paris 8 University, told FRANCE 24.

“Ever since the first European elections held in 1979, parties in France have struggled to get their voters out in force for these elections, [because] these are viewed as second-order elections that lack the importance of presidential or parliamentary elections,” Shields added.

“In an already busy electoral calendar where national and subnational elections are held over two rounds, there is little impetus for many voters to go to the polls yet again for a supranational election that is thought not to really matter so much”, Shields continued.

Yellow Vests polling at just 3 percent

The emergence and persistent presence of the Yellow Vest protest movement in France looks likely to accentuate the abstention rate for the European elections in France, added Elvire Fabry, a European politics specialist at the Institut Jacques Delors think-tank in Paris: “The Yellow Vests are really concentrating the debate on domestic issues, pulling all European, international issues out of the debate,” she told FRANCE 24.

The Yellow Vests’ rise to prominence helps explain why Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise – the second biggest party in the National Assembly after LREM, and which many observers see as Macron’s most vigorous parliamentary opponent – languishes in fourth place in the Elabe survey.

“Mélenchon isn’t succeeding in the European election race, even with a young, dynamic head of list, because he didn’t succeed in providing meaningful answers to the Yellow Vests; if he had done so, he could really have capitalised on the success on their movement,” Fabry continued.

But despite such “success” in setting the terms of France’s political debate, the Yellow Vests movement, which announced its first European elections list this week, will probably not garner more than 3 percent of the vote, according to the Elabe survey.

“The Yellow Vests are polling so low because it’s difficult to carry their momentum into organised politics, and every time some of its members try to do so there’s a push back – a sense that people are trying to politicise something that’s apolitical,” Smith said.

Meanwhile the Yellow Vests’ bête noir, France’s self-declared “Jupiterian” president, could reap ample rewards from LREM edging RN at the top of the polls on May 26, Smith postulated: “If his party does well, it will act as a rally for the Macron project, creating an idea of a ‘second act’ to his presidential term that puts the Yellow Vest crisis firmly in the past”.