Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Blocco Europeo. 2021Q2. Pil -2.5%, occupati -2.1 milioni, comparati con 2019Q4.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-11.

2021-09-08__ Eurostat Pil 001

Molto correttamente, Eurostat riporta le variazioni percentuali sul trimestre precedente.

Infatti, il 2020Q2 fu particolarmente depresso, per cui il rapporto 2021Q2/2020Q2 risulta essere abnormemente elevato, inaffidabile.

Sempre molto correttamente, Eurostat paragona questi macrodati con quelli del 2019Q4, ultimo trimestre prima della crisi pandemica.

«Based on seasonally adjusted figures, GDP volumes were 2.5% and 2.2% below their highest level of the fourth quarter 2019 for the euro area and EU. For the United States, GDP was 0.8% higher than the level of the fourth quarter 2019»

«employment in persons was 2.1 million in the euro area and 2.0 million in the EU below the level of the fourth quarter of 2019»

* * * * * * *


Eurostat ha rilasciato il Report GDP up by 2.2% and employment up by 0.7% in the euro area. In the EU, GDP up by 2.1% and employment up by 0.7%

                         GDP growth in the euro area and the EU

In the second quarter of 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 2.2% in the euro area and by 2.1% in the EU compared with the previous quarter, according to an estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2021, GDP had declined by 0.3% in the euro area and 0.1% in the EU.  

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 14.3% in the euro area and by 13.8% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, after -1.2% in both zones in the previous quarter.

During the second quarter of 2021, GDP in the United States increased by 1.6% compared with the previous quarter (after +1.5% in the first quarter of 2021). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP increased by 12.2% (after +0.5% in the previous quarter).

                         GDP growth by Member State

Ireland (+6.3%) recorded the sharpest increase of GDP compared to the previous quarter, followed by Portugal (+4.9%), Latvia (+4.4%) and Estonia (+4.3%). Declines were observed in Malta (-0.5%) and Croatia (-0.2%).

                         GDP components and contributions to growth

During the second quarter of 2021, household final consumption expenditure increased by 3.7% in the euro area and by 3.5% in the EU (after -2.1% in the euro area and -1.7% in the EU in the previous quarter). Government final consumption expenditure increased by 1.2% in both zones (after -0.5% both in the previous quarter). Gross fixed capital formation increased by 1.1% in the euro area and by 1.0% in the EU (after -0.2% and +0.3% respectively). Exports increased by 2.2% in the euro area and by 1.8% the EU (after +0.7% in both areas). Imports increased by 2.3% in the euro area and by 2.2% in the EU (after +0.4% and +0.6%).

Household final consumption expenditure had strong positive contributions to GDP growth in both the euro area and the EU (+1.9 and +1.7 percentage points – pp, respectively). The contributions from government final expenditure (+0.3 pp in both zones) and gross fixed capital formation (+0.2 pp in both zones) were also positive. The contribution from the external balance was close to neutral for both zones, while the contribution from changes in inventories was slightly negative for the euro area and neutral for the EU.

                         GDP levels in the euro area and EU

Based on seasonally adjusted figures, GDP volumes were 2.5% and 2.2% below their highest level of the fourth quarter 2019 for the euro area and EU. For the United States, GDP was 0.8% higher than the level of the fourth quarter 2019.

                         Employment growth in the euro area and EU

The number of employed persons increased by 0.7% in both the euro area and in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, compared with the previous quarter. In the first quarter of 2021, employment had decreased by 0.2% in both the euro area and the EU.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment increased by 1.8% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, after -1.8% and -1.6% respectively in the first quarter of 2021.

Hours worked increased by 2.7% in the euro area and by 2.4% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, compared with the previous quarter. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year the increases were 17.0% in the euro area and 14.7% in the EU (see annex table on employment in hours worked).

These data provide a picture of labour input consistent with the output and income measure of national accounts.

                         Employment growth in Member States

In the second quarter of 2021, Latvia (+5.7%), Greece (+2.8%), Denmark and Portugal (both +1.9%) recorded the highest growth of employment in persons compared with the previous quarter. Decreases were observed in Estonia (-1.1%) and Spain (-0.9%).

                         Employment levels in the euro area and EU

Based on seasonally adjusted figures, Eurostat estimates that in the second quarter of 2021, 207.5 million people were employed in the EU, of which 159.0 million were in the euro area.

In relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, employment in persons was 2.1 million in the euro area and 2.0 million in the EU below the level of the fourth quarter of 2019.

                         Evolution of labour productivity in the euro area and EU

The combination of GDP and employment data allows an estimation of labour productivity. The analysis of growth compared to the same quarter of the previous year shows that productivity growth (based on employed persons) fluctuated around 1% for both zones between 2013 and 2018.

In relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, productivity based on persons increased compared to the same quarter of the previous year with 12.2% for the euro area and 11.6% for the EU.

Based on hours worked, productivity compared to the same quarter of the previous year decreased by 1.5% for the euro area and increased by 0.3% for the EU.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Unione Europea

Blocco Europeo. 2021Q2. Pil +2.0% su 2021Q1. In questo caso il rapporto 2021Q2 su 2020Q2 sarebbe fallace.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-18.

2021-08-18__ Eurostat 001

Attenzione!

Correttamente Eurostat titola riportando i rapporti 2021Q2 / 2021Q1.

Infatti il 2020Q2 è stato il peggior semestre con un secco -15%. Di conseguenza, il rapporto 2021Q2 / 2020Q2 è risultato essere abnormemente elevato.

Eurostat non ha pubblicato il riscontro contro l’ultimo semestre prima della crisi economica.

2021-08-18__ Eurostat 002

* * * * * * *


Eurostat ha rilasciato il Report GDP up by 2.0% and employment up by 0.5% in the euro area.

GDP up by 2.0% and employment up by 0.5% in the euro area In the EU, GDP up by 1.9% and employment up by 0.6%

                         GDP growth in the euro area and EU.

In the second quarter of 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 2.0% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU, compared with the previous quarter, according to a flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2021, GDP had declined by 0.3% in the euro area and 0.1% in the EU.

During the second quarter of 2021, GDP in the United States increased by 1.6% compared with the previous quarter (after +1.5% in the first quarter of 2021). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP increased by 12.2% (after +0.5% in the previous quarter).

                   Employment growth in the euro area and EU

The number of employed persons increased by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.6% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, compared with the previous quarter. In the first quarter of 2021, employment had decreased by 0.2% in both the euro area and the EU.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment increased by 1.8% in both the euro area and in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, after -1.8% and -1.6% respectively in the first quarter of 2021.

These data provide a picture of labour input consistent with the output and income measure of national accounts.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Europa. 2021Q1. Pil eurozona -5.1%, EU -4.6, comparati sul 2019Q4. – Eurostat.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-09.

2021-06-09__ eUROSTAT gDP 001

Ricordandosi bene di quando Stalin spedì in Siberia tutto il personale dell’Ufficio di Statistica, anche quello di Eurostat riporta pudicamente nei titoli i dati QoQ.

Poi, in fondo, riporta le tabelle dei dati comparati sul primo trimestre 2020 e sul quarto trimestre 2019, ultimo rilevamento prima della crisi del Covid.

La differenza è stridente, ma ben più aderente ala realtà dei fatti.

2021-06-09__ eUROSTAT gDP 002

* * * * * * *

In sintesi.

– GDP volumes were 5.1% and 4.6% below their highest level of the fourth quarter 2019 for the euro area and EU

– household final consumption expenditure decreased by 2.3% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU

* * * * * * *


Eurostat ha rilasciato il Report 2021 GDP down by 0.3% and employment down by 0.3% in the euro area.

                         GDP growth in the euro area and the EU.

In the first quarter of 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.1% in the EU compared with the previous quarter, according to an estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. These declines follow falls in the fourth quarter of 2020 (-0.6% in the euro area and -0.4% in the EU) after a strong rebound in the third quarter of 2020 (+12.6% in the euro area and +11.7% in the EU). Before, the sharpest decreases since the time series started in 1995 were observed in the second quarter of 2020 (-11.5% in the euro area and -11.1% in the EU).

During the first quarter of 2021, GDP in the United States increased by 1.6% compared with the previous quarter (after +1.1% in the fourth quarter of 2020). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP increased by 0.4% (after -2.4% in the previous quarter).

                         GDP growth by Member State.

Ireland (+7.8%) and Croatia (+5.8%) recorded the sharpest increases of GDP compared to the previous quarter, followed by Estonia (+4.8%) and Greece (+4.4%). The strongest declines were observed in Portugal (-3.3%) and Slovakia (-2.0%), followed by Germany (-1.8%) and Latvia (-1.7%).

                         GDP components and contributions to growth.

During the first quarter of 2021, household final consumption expenditure decreased by 2.3% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU (after -2.9% in the euro area and -2.7% in the EU in the previous quarter). Gross fixed capital formation increased by 0.2% in the euro area and by 0.8% in the EU (after +2.5% and +2.0% respectively). Exports increased by 1.0% in the euro area and by 1.1% the EU (after +3.8% and +4.0%). Imports increased by 0.9% in the euro area and by 1.1% in the EU (after +4.5% and +4.4%).

Household final consumption expenditure had negative contribution to GDP growth in both the euro area and the EU (-1.2 and -1.0 percentage points – pp, respectively) while the contributions from gross fixed capital formation (+0.1 in the euro area and +0.2 in the EU) and changes in inventories (+0.7% in the euro area and +0.6 in the EU) were positive. The contribution from the external balance was slightly positive for the euro area and neutral for the EU, while the contributions from government final expenditure were neutral in both zones.

                         GDP levels in the euro area and EU.

Based on seasonally adjusted figures, GDP volumes were 5.1% and 4.6% below their highest level of the fourth quarter 2019 for the euro area and EU, which corresponds to the level of the fourth quarter 2016 for the euro area and is slightly above the level of the first quarter 2017 for the EU. For the United States, GDP was 0.9% below the level of the fourth quarter 2019 but recovered to its previous level of the second quarter 2019.

                         Employment growth in the euro area and EU.

The number of employed persons decreased by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU in the first quarter of 2021, compared with the previous quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2020, employment had increased by 0.4% in both the euro area and the EU.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment decreased by 1.8% in the euro area and by 1.6% in the EU in the first quarter of 2021, after -1.8% and -1.5% respectively in the fourth quarter of 2020.

                         Employment growth in Member States.

In the first quarter of 2021, Hungary (+1.1%), Spain (+1.0%), Cyprus and Lithuania (both +0.8%) recorded the highest growth of employment in persons compared with the previous quarter. The largest decreases were observed in Latvia (-3.9%), Greece (-1.7%) and Slovakia (-1.1%). At this stage, data for Ireland and Romania are not included in the graph, due to a delayed publication in Ireland and series break observed in the first quarter 2021 in Romania.

                         Employment levels in the euro area and EU.

Based on seasonally adjusted figures, Eurostat estimates that in the first quarter of 2021, 205.6 million people were employed in the EU, of which 157.6 million were in the euro area.

In relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, employment in persons was 3.4 million in the euro area and 3.8 million in the EU below the level of the fourth quarter of 2019.

                         Evolution of labour productivity in the euro area and EU.

The combination of GDP and employment data allows an estimation of labour productivity. The analysis of growth compared to the same quarter of the previous year shows that productivity growth (based on employed persons) fluctuated around 1% for both zones between 2013 and 2018.

In relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, productivity based on persons increased compared to the same quarter of the previous year with 0.6% for the euro area and 0.4% for the EU.

Based on hours worked, productivity compared to the same quarter of the previous year increased by 2.0% for the euro area and to 1.1% for the EU.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Eurozona. 2021 Maggio. Inflazione annuale +2.0%. – Eurostat. Dati conflittuali.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-02.

2021-06-02__ Eurostat nflazine 001

Eurostat. May 2021. Euro area annual inflation up to 2.0%.

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 2.0% in May 2021, up from 1.6% in April according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in May (13.1%, compared with 10.4% in April), followed by services (1.1%, compared with 0.9% in April), non-energy industrial goods (0.7%, compared with 0.4% in April) and food, alcohol & tobacco (0.6%, stable compared with April).

2021-06-02__ Eurostat nflazine 002

* * *

                         Methods and definitions.

Annual inflation is the change of the price level of consumer goods and services between the current month and the same month of the previous year. Monthly inflation is the change of the price level between the current month and the previous month.

* * * * * * *


Si piglia atto come questi siano i dati ufficiali al 1° giugno 2021.

Resta tuttavia difficilmente spiegabile come possano essere coerenti a quelli riportati nel precedente Report, che datava solo il 19 maggio.

Eurostat. April 2021. Annual inflation up to 1.6% in the euro area.

The euro area annual inflation rate was 1.6% in April 2021, up from 1.3% in March. A year earlier, the rate was 0.3%.

* * * * * * *

Il 5 maggio sempre Eurostat aveva pubblicato i macrodati relativi al Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, il quale valeva +4.3%.

Resta invero molto difficile capire come ad un simile aumento dei costi di produzione corrisponda una inflazione del solo +2.0%. Per non parlare poi dei costi dell’energia, saliti del 13.1%.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Cina, Russia, Stati Uniti, Unione Europea

G7 e Russia. Un G7 in via di devoluzione conta molto poco.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-26.

2021-05-20__ G7 GDP (Statista) 001

L’istogramma pubblicato da Statista dovrebbe essere eloquente.

«In 2019, the G7 countries of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and United States held 31.68 percent of the global gross domestic product (GDP). In 2025, that figure is projected to drop to 28.8 percent»

Nel 2019 il pil dei paesi G7 rappresentava il 31.68% del pil mondiale, mentre quello del G20, esclusi i paesi del G7), valeva il 41.51%.

Nel 2025 il pil dei paesi G7 è proiettato al 28.8% del pil mondiale, mentre quello del G20, esclusi i paesi del G7), è stimato arrivare al 44.77%.

Solo per dare un esempio, nel 2000 il pil indiano valeva 476.64 miliardi Usd, ma è stimato a 3,049.7 miliardi nel 2021 ed a 4,534.34 miliardi nel 2026.

Si noti come invece il pil dei paesi G7 sia in consistente diminuzione.

Non solo.

Il pil di alcuni paesi è drogato dal conteggio dei fondi pubblici erogati in via  assistenziale.

Se è vero che il pil sia un macrodato di primario interesse, sarebbe altrettanto vero ricordare come la sua lettura dovrebbe essere corroborata da altri macrodati similmente importanti, quali la produzione industriale, i volumi dell’Import – Export, la percentuale degli occupati, il valore della inflazione, solo per citarne alcuni.

Si faccia attenzione. Le parole son come le farfalle, mentre i numeri sono massi, ed anche pesanti.

* * * * * * *

Se questi dati siano fermamente chiari, l’intervista rilasciata da Mr Andrei Kelin, Ambasciatore russo a Londra, risulterebbe essere chiara.

– «G7 playing a ‘dangerous game’ by pushing Moscow towards China»

– «Russia, he said, was more interested in other forums such as the G20, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the BRICs organisation»

* * * * * * *

«G7 leaders gather for a summit in St Ives, in the southern English region of Cornwall, on June 11-13. How to deal with President Vladimir Putin’s Russia is expected to be on the agenda»

«The Group of Seven is playing a “dangerous game” by making aggressive and baseless criticism of the Kremlin because it pushes Russia closer to China»

«G7 foreign ministers this month scolded both China and Russia, casting the Kremlin as malicious and Beijing as a bully, but beyond words there were few concrete steps aside from expressing support for Taiwan and Ukraine»

«Kelin said the G7’s critique was biased, confrontational, lacked substance and was stoking anti-Western feelings among Russians, while its aggressive attitude towards Russia and China was pushing the two powers together»

«Russia, the world’s largest country by territory, denies it meddles beyond its borders and says the West is gripped by anti-Russian hysteria»

«China, the world’s second largest economy, says the West is a bully and that its leaders have a post-imperial mindset that makes them feel they can act like global policemen»

«Asked about G7 criticism of the state of human rights in Russia, Kelin said the United States and Britain should pay more attention to the state of their own democracy after the attacks on the U.S. Capitol and race issues in Britain»

«it has no grounds to judge other countries about the state of democracy»

«Asked about G7 criticism of the state of human rights in Russia, Kelin said the United States and Britain should pay more attention to the state of their own democracy after the attacks on the U.S. Capitol and race issues in Britain»

«No one gives them the right to judge others – especially on the state of democracy»

«It is strange for us as we are not eager to become once again a part of this club, …. In our view it has lost its authority»

* * * * * * *

L’enclave liberal socialista occidentale sta devolvendosi ogni giorno che passa, incapace di sottoporsi a revisione critica.

Certamente ad oggi ha ancora una potenza economica non indifferente, ma è sulla via del declino.

*


G7 playing a ‘dangerous game’ by pushing Moscow towards China – Russian envoy.

The Group of Seven is playing a “dangerous game” by making aggressive and baseless criticism of the Kremlin because it pushes Russia closer to China, Russia’s ambassador to London Andrei Kelin told Reuters on Thursday.

G7 foreign ministers this month scolded both China and Russia, casting the Kremlin as malicious and Beijing as a bully, but beyond words there were few concrete steps aside from expressing support for Taiwan and Ukraine.

The G7, in a 12,400-word communique, said Russia was a destabilising influence on the world because of its 2014 annexation of Crimea, its build up on Ukraine’s border and its meddling in the internal affairs of other countries.

Kelin said the G7’s critique was biased, confrontational, lacked substance and was stoking anti-Western feelings among Russians, while its aggressive attitude towards Russia and China was pushing the two powers together.

“This is a dangerous game,” Kelin, 64, told Reuters. “Russia and China have enormous potential in different fields – in the economy, in technology, in military capacities, in politics – this potential is spread around the world.”

“We are not allies with China, however pushing Russia and China, it closes our ranks with China – in that sense we are more and more united against challenges that are being presented from the West.”

Russia, the world’s largest country by territory, denies it meddles beyond its borders and says the West is gripped by anti-Russian hysteria.

China, the world’s second largest economy, says the West is a bully and that its leaders have a post-imperial mindset that makes them feel they can act like global policemen.

G7 leaders gather for a summit in St Ives, in the southern English region of Cornwall, on June 11-13. How to deal with President Vladimir Putin’s Russia is expected to be on the agenda.

Kelin, a career diplomat who speaks fluent English, French and Dutch, said Russia would proceed according to its own geopolitical interests and that if there were issues that needed to be discussed then dialogue was the best way.

“But the G7 prefers megaphone diplomacy,” Kelin said. “This is a club that expresses certain opinions on different subjects but it has no grounds to judge other countries about the state of democracy.”

Asked about G7 criticism of the state of human rights in Russia, Kelin said the United States and Britain should pay more attention to the state of their own democracy after the attacks on the U.S. Capitol and race issues in Britain.

“Look at yourself in this situation – but they don’t want to look at themselves,” Kelin said. “No one gives them the right to judge others – especially on the state of democracy.”

Russia was brought into what became the Group of Eight in 1997 under former President Boris Yeltsin but its membership was suspended in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea.

“We see discussions on this subject: let’s invite Russia, let’s not invite Russia. It is strange for us as we are not eager to become once again a part of this club,” Kelin said. “In our view it has lost its authority.”

“It is divisive – it has a tendency to split the world into friends and aliens: they want to talk about coalitions of friends targetted against the others. This doesn’t bring solutions – it brings more problems to the world,” Kelin said.

Russia, he said, was more interested in other forums such as the G20, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the BRICs organisation.

Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Devoluzione socialismo, Russia, Unione Europea

EU. Quasi tutti gli stati hanno mandato gli ambasciatori alla sfilata russa del 9 maggio.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-14.

Putin_003__ - Copia

«Most EU states are sending their ambassadors to Russia’s WW2 victory parade on Sunday (9 May) despite tense relations»

«The list includes: Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Sweden.»

«The three Baltic states and Spain are not sending anyone»

«the Baltic states are boycotting the event for political motives»

«Lithuania’s ambassador will place flowers on the tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow on 8 May»

«But the 2021 guest list also gives a snapshot of where individual EU states stand on Russia»

«But Berlin, in any case, always sends a VIP to the Red Square on 9 May because of Nazi Germany’s role in WW2»

«The EU ambassador is not in Moscow on the day»

«For a number of countries, this [9 May] is an important date and they appreciate the undeniable role the Soviet Union played in defeating the Nazis»

«This year, the Kremlin said it had not invited big names because the 76th anniversary was less important than the 75th»

«Presence at the level of an ambassador is always the lowest official representation possible, so this is also a sign»

«nuclear-capable ‘Iskander’ missiles, which Russia has placed in its Kaliningrad exclave, putting them in range of Warsaw and Berlin»

* * * * * * *

Gli stati dell’Unione Europea hanno nei confronti della Russia e di Mr Putin posizioni conflittuali ed incongruenti.

Da una parte devono constatare come essi dipendano dalle forniture di gas naturale russo, volenti o nolenti.

Nel contempo assistono al continuo ripristino delle forze armate russe, tornate ad essere allo stato dell’arte. Gli europei si sentono i missili russi puntati sulle loro teste.

È ben capibile che i governi europei odino di odio distillato Mr Putin, che nel giro di venti anni ha riportato la Russia al ruolo di potenza mondiale. Mr Putin è un russo che cura gli interessi del suo paese: sufficit.

Ma a tutto questo si aggiunge il fatto che Mr Putin è paladino del retaggio religioso, umano, sociale e politico: ha persino fatto scrivere nella Costituzione che il matrimonio è tale solo tra un maschio ed una femmina.

Per l’Unione Europea liberal socialista questa Weltanschauung è l’esatto opposto della loro ideologia.

*

In ogni caso si constata che “Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Sweden” hanno inviato i loro ambasciatori.

*


EU ambassadors flock to Red Square for Putin’s parade

Most EU states are sending their ambassadors to Russia’s WW2 victory parade on Sunday (9 May) despite tense relations.

The list includes: Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Sweden.

The Dutch ambassador is also expected to go, but had not confirmed as of Friday.

Austria, Cyprus, and the EU embassy in Moscow are sending chargé d’affaires.

The three Baltic states and Spain are not sending anyone.

Malta did not reply to EUobserver.

In Cold War times, Western analysts used to study who sat close to the Soviet leader at the annual event to try to understand Moscow’s opaque power structures in a practice called “Kremlinology”.

But the 2021 guest list also gives a snapshot of where individual EU states stand on Russia.

Relations nosedived in 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine, prompting EU sanctions.

They got worse recently, when the EU imposed blacklists over Russia’s violence against opposition leader Alexei Navalny and Russia listed the EU Parliament president in revenge.

The Czech Republic and Russia also expelled dozens of each other’s diplomats after revelations that Russian spies blew up a Czech arms depot in 2014, killing two people.

But Berlin, in any case, always sends a VIP to the Red Square on 9 May because of Nazi Germany’s role in WW2, an EU diplomat noted.

The fact the Czech ambassador is going indicates Prague wants to mend ties despite the bomb attack.

Meanwhile, Austria, Cyprus, Spain, and the EU embassy’s decisions not to send top people mean little, because these were due to logistical reasons.

The EU ambassador is not in Moscow on the day, for instance.

But the Baltic states are boycotting the event for political motives, diplomatic sources said.

Lithuania’s ambassador will place flowers on the tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow on 8 May instead.

And his gesture was meant “to honour the victims of all the nations that fought in WW2, civilian and military,” an EU diplomat noted.

“For a number of countries, this [9 May] is an important date and they appreciate the undeniable role the Soviet Union played in defeating the Nazis,” another EU source said.

“Ambassadors cannot escape from an invitation to attend such an event – it’s a matter of courtesy and, actually, their duty to come – unless bilateral relations are so bad that they couldn’t care less,” the source added.

Last year, the Austrian, Bulgarian, Croatian, Czech, French, and Italian presidents or prime ministers, as well as the Grand Duke of Luxembourg, had planned to go.

But the parade was cancelled due to the pandemic and, in the end, the Hungarian foreign minister was the only EU politician who went to a mini-event on 24 June.

                         Spin?

This year, the Kremlin said it had not invited big names because the 76th anniversary was less important than the 75th.

“This year is not a [major] anniversary year, so we don’t intend to invite foreign participants,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in April.

But the EU source indicated that this was spin designed to avoid a potential “snub”.

“Presence at the level of an ambassador is always the lowest official representation possible, so this is also a sign,” the source said.

“This is a snub for the Russians. Although they will try to present it as EU member states attending,” he added.

The 2021 parade is to involve 12,000 soldiers, 190 combat vehicles, 53 warplanes, and 23 helicopters, according to Russia’s Tass news agency.

This includes ‘S-400’ anti-aircraft systems, which Russia installed in Crimea after seizing the peninsula from Ukraine.

It also includes nuclear-capable ‘Iskander’ missiles, which Russia has placed in its Kaliningrad exclave, putting them in range of Warsaw and Berlin.

                         Iskanders.

And for some Western observers, Russian president Vladimir Putin’s parades have come to look more like propaganda for future conflicts than celebrating the end of WW2.

Recalling a 9 May parade shortly after Russia attacked Ukraine, Robert Pszczel, a former Nato spokesman in Moscow, told EUobserver in 2015: “I don’t have a problem with kids cheering when they watch their country’s tanks go by”.

“But I do have a problem when the biggest cheer, the kind you hear at a hockey match, comes when they see the Iskanders go by,” Pszczel said.

“The West is dealing with a leader [Putin] who is bored by domestic politics, driven by a big but touchy ego, dreaming of his huge role in history, progressively emboldened by the short-term successes of his brinkmanship, and unchained from the restrictions of political, legal, and moral accountability,” Pszczel also said on Friday, in an op-ed for British think-tank Rusi.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Europa. Marzo21. Vendite al Dettaglio +2.7% MoM, +12.0% comparate su Marzo 2020.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-08.

2021-05-07__ Eurostat Vendite Dettaglio 001

In sintesi.

2021-05-07__ Eurostat Vendite Dettaglio 002

– In March 2021 the …. volume of retail trade rose by 2.7% in the euro area and by 2.6% in the EU, compared with February 2021

– In March 2021 compared with March 2020, the calendar adjusted volume of retail trade increased by 12.0% in the euro area and by 11.6% in the EU

2021-05-07__ Eurostat Vendite Dettaglio 003

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Eurostat. March 2021 compared with February 2021. Volume of retail trade up by 2.7% in euro area and by 2.6% in the EU. Up by 12.0% and 11.6% compared with March 2020.

In March 2021, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade rose by 2.7% in the euro area and by 2.6% in the EU, compared with February 2021, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In February 2021, the retail trade volume increased by 4.2% in the euro area and by 3.8% in the EU.

In March 2021 compared with March 2020, the calendar adjusted volume of retail trade increased by 12.0% in the euro area and by 11.6% in the EU.

                         Monthly comparison by retail sector and by Member State.

In the euro area in March 2021, compared with February 2021, the volume of retail trade increased by 4.6% for non-food products and by 1.0% for food, drinks and tobacco, while it decreased by 2.9% for automotive fuels.

In the EU the volume of retail trade increased by 4.2% for non-food products and by 0.8% for food, drinks and tobacco, while it decreased by 2.3% for automotive fuels.

Among Member States for which data are available, the highest monthly increases in total retail trade were registered in Denmark (+22.5%), the Netherlands (+8.4%), Germany and Lithuania (both +7.7%). The largest decreases were observed in Croatia (-4.0%), Poland (-2.2%) and Austria (-1.9%).

                         Annual comparison by retail sector and by Member State.

In the euro area in March 2021, compared with March 2020, the volume of retail trade increased by 25.0% for non-food products (within this category mail orders and internet increased by 37.2%), and by 17.1% for automotive fuels, while it decreased by 1.1% for food, drinks and tobacco.

In the EU, the volume of retail trade increased by 23.6% for non-food products (mail orders and internet increased by 37.4%) and by 14.1% for automotive fuels, while it decreased by 1.2% for food, drinks and tobacco.

Among Member States for which data are available, the highest annual increases in total retail trade volume were registered in Slovenia (+24.0%), Denmark (+22.6%) and France (+21.3%). Decreases were observed in Hungary (-2.1%), Portugal (-1.1%) and Malta (-0.1%).

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Unione Europea. 2021Q1. Pil eurozona -1.8%, Pil Unione -1.7%, anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-04.

2021-05-03__ Eurostat pil 001

Eurostat ha rilasciato il Report GDP down by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU.

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Eurostat. GDP down by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU. -1.8% and -1.7% respectively compared with the first quarter of 2020.

In the first quarter 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU, compared with the previous quarter, according to a preliminary flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. These declines follow falls in the fourth quarter of 2020 (-0.7% in the euro area and -0.5% in the EU) after a strong rebound in the third quarter of 2020 (+12.5% in the euro area and +11.7% in the EU) and the sharpest decreases since the time series started in 1995 observed in the second quarter of 2020 (-11.6% in the euro area and -11.2% in the EU).

These preliminary GDP flash estimates are based on data sources that are incomplete and subject to further revisions.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 1.8% in the euro area and by 1.7% in the EU in the first quarter of 2021, after -4.9% in the euro area and -4.6% in the EU in the previous quarter.

Among the Member States for which data are available for the first quarter 2021, Portugal (-3.3%) recorded the highest decrease compared to the previous quarter, followed by Latvia (-2.6%) and Germany (-1.7%), while Lithuania (+1.8%) and Sweden (+1.1%) recorded the highest increases. The year on year growth rates were negative for all countries except for France (+1.5%) and Lithuania (+1.0%).

The next estimates for the first quarter of 2021 will be released on 18 May 2021.

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Per quanto imbellettati come una brutta ottantenne che vorrebbe esibirsi in microtanga, questi dati rappresentano una débâcle per l’Europa guidata da von der Leyen, Lagarde e Merkel.

L’enclave occidentale liberal si è fratturato in due tronconi:

Usa. 2021Q1. Pil +6.4%, Consumi Personali +10.7%, annualizzato. – BEA.

ma una nave spaccata in due tronconi alla fine affonda. Gli Stati Uniti sono in ripresa, mentre l’Unione Europea è in piena recessione. Gli Stati Uniti si avviano al termine del QE, il tapering, e verso un rialzo dei tassi di interesse. L’Europa è l’ultimo cascame del mondo a necessitare di tassi negativi e di un sostanzioso QE, Il conflitto è evidente.

Le esigenze di queste due sottozone geoeconomiche sono conflittuali ed antitetiche, non più collaborative.

Per non parlare poi del resto del mondo.

Cina. Marzo21. Profitti Industriali +92.3% YoY, +137.3% ultimi 12 mesi.

Cina. 2021Q1. Settori in crescita tumultuosa. Un monito per l’occidente.

Eurostat. 2020Q4. I debiti degli stati sono al 98% del pil del blocco europeo.

Giappone. Marzo21. Export +16.1%, Import +5.7%, anno su anno. La Cina supera gli Usa.

USA. Il Tesoro emetterà 271 miliardi di nuovo debito ora, 4,000 a breve. Rendimenti aumentati.

Indonesia. Marzo21. Export +30.47%, Import +25.73%, anno su anno. – Statistics Indonesia.

Cina. 2021Q1. Pil +18.3% anno su anno.

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La devoluzione del socialismo liberal europeo prosegue ineluttabile, come la campagna di Russia di Napoleone.Ma la Beresina è oramai vicina.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Eurostat. 2020Q4. I debiti degli stati sono al 98% del pil del blocco europeo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-04-28.

2021-04-25__ Eurostat Q4 001

Eurostat. Government debt up to 98.0% of GDP in euro area.

2021-04-25__ Eurostat Q4 002

Fourth quarter of 2020. Government debt up to 98.0% of GDP in euro area. Up to 90.7% of GDP in EU.

At the end of the fourth quarter of 2020, still impacted by policy responses to the COVID-19 containment measures, which materialised in increased financing needs, the government debt to GDP ratio in the euro area stood at 98.0%, compared with 97.2% at the end of the third quarter of 2020. In the EU, the ratio increased from 89.7% to 90.7%. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, the government debt to GDP ratio rose in both the euro area (from 83.9% to 98.0%) and the EU (from 77.5% to 90.7%): the increases are due to two factors – government debt increasing, and GDP decreasing.

At the end of the fourth quarter of 2020, debt securities accounted for 82.1% of euro area and for 81.8% of EU general government debt. Loans made up 14.6% and 15.1% respectively and currency and deposits represented 3.3% of euro area and 3.2% of EU government debt. Due to the involvement of EU Member States’ governments in financial assistance to certain Member States, quarterly data on intergovernmental lending (IGL) are also published. The share of IGL as percentage of GDP at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020 amounted to 2.0% in the euro area and to 1.7% in the EU.

Government debt at the end of the fourth quarter 2020 by Member State

The highest ratios of government debt to GDP at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020 were recorded in Greece (205.6%), Italy (155.8%), Portugal (133.6%), Spain (120.0%), Cyprus (118.2%), France (115.7%), and Belgium (114.1%), and the lowest in Estonia (18.2%), Luxembourg (24.9%) and Bulgaria (25.0%).

Compared with the third quarter of 2020, seventeen Member States registered an increase in their debt to GDP ratio at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020 and ten a decrease. The largest increases in the ratio were observed in Hungary (+6.5 percentage points – pp), Spain (+6.0 pp), Greece (+5.9 pp), Austria (+5.0 pp), Romania (+4.2 pp) and Portugal (+3.1 pp). The largest decreases were recorded in Ireland (-2.8 pp), Latvia and Luxembourg (both -1.2 pp), and Cyprus (-1.0 pp).

Compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, all Member States registered an increase in their debt to GDP ratio at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. The largest increases in the ratio were recorded in Greece (+25.1 pp), Spain (+24.5 pp), Cyprus (+24.2 pp), Italy (+21.2 pp) and France (+18.1 pp).

Compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, all Member States registered an increase in their debt to GDP ratio at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. The largest increases in the ratio were recorded in Greece (+25.1 pp), Spain (+24.5 pp), Cyprus (+24.2 pp), Italy (+21.2 pp) and France (+18.1 pp).