Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
2022-10-12.
Bloomberg ha pubblicato un mastodontico articolo sulle banche centrali di tutto il mondo.
Ne riportiamo sunteggiando solo una minima parte, relativa alle banche centrali delle maggiori economie.
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Le principali banche centrali del mondo stanno finalmente spingendo i loro tassi d’interesse in territorio restrittivo, causando timori di eccesso di liquidità nei mercati finanziari e alimentando le voci secondo cui i responsabili politici potrebbero essere costretti a cambiare rotta ad un certo punto.
La Federal Reserve, la Banca Centrale Europea e la maggior parte delle banche omologhe continueranno ad aumentare i costi di finanziamento in modo aggressivo nelle prossime settimane. Più veloce sarà l’aumento, più ci si chiederà fino a che punto possano spremere le economie prima di turbare gli investitori o generare recessioni.
Alcuni funzionari dei mercati emergenti hanno già iniziato a lamentarsi del fatto che la spinta delle banche centrali dei paesi sviluppati stia causando loro problemi, indebolendo i tassi di cambio.
Le lamentele potrebbero aumentare questa settimana, quando i banchieri centrali e i ministri delle finanze si riuniranno a Washington per gli incontri annuali del Fondo Monetario Internazionale.
Per ora, dopo aver fallito nel prevedere l’impennata dell’inflazione, la priorità resta quella di contrastare le pressioni sui prezzi più forti degli ultimi quarant’anni, anche se ciò dovesse comportare una crescita più debole e un aumento della disoccupazione.
Alcune banche centrali si stanno già orientando verso rialzi più modesti, o dichiarano un picco dei tassi, in quello che potrebbe essere un tema da affrontare altrove nel 2023. Altre, come quelle di Giappone e Cina, stanno mantenendo una politica allentata.
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Central Banks Plow On Hiking Rates Despite Pivot Talk
(Bloomberg) — The world’s leading central banks are finally pushing their interest rates into restrictive territory, causing fears of overkill in financial markets and stoking chatter that policymakers may need to pivot at some point.
The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and most of their peers are set to keep raising borrowing costs aggressively in coming weeks. The faster they go, the more questions will be asked about how far they can squeeze economies before unsettling investors or generating recessions.
Already some emerging-market officials are beginning to grumble that the push by developed-economy central banks is causing problems for them by weakening their exchange rates.
The complaints may grow this week as central bankers and finance ministers gather in Washington for the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings.
For now, after having failed to predict the inflation surge, the priority remains beating back the strongest price pressures in four decades — even if that comes at the cost of weaker growth and higher unemployment.
Some central banks are already pivoting to more modest hikes, or declaring a peak in rates, in what may be a theme for elsewhere in 2023. Others, such as those of Japan and China, are keeping policy loose.
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Here is Bloomberg’s quarterly guide to 23 of the world’s top central banks, covering 90% of the world economy.
Group of Seven
U.S. Federal Reserve. Current federal funds rate (upper bound): 3.25%
Having lifted the target range for its benchmark rate by three percentage points since March to 3% to 3.25%, officials have signaled a fourth 75 basis point hike could be on the table in November.
Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues are on track to keep raising rates beyond then to beat the hottest inflation in nearly four decades.
The Fed’s forecasts show rates at 4.4% by year end and 4.6% in 2023.
Their tightening campaign — the most aggressive since Paul Volcker’s Fed in the 1980s — has sent a spasm through financial markets as the dollar surges and drawn criticism from abroad.
But policymakers are so far shrugging off the risk of contagion, noting financial markets are operating smoothly and stressing that their primary focus is on the US economy.
European Central Bank. Current deposit rate: 0.75%
The ECB has raised rates by 125 basis points over the past quarter and President Christine Lagarde has flagged additional hikes at the next “several meetings” to safeguard inflation expectations.
While wage growth has remained moderate despite double-digit price gains in vast parts of the 19-nation euro zone, consumers see inflation far above the ECB’s 2% target in the medium term.
The recession that’s becoming ever more likely amid record energy costs and uncertainty over outages this winter is unlikely to significantly damp prices, and officials have signaled that they’re planning to take the deposit rate to neutral levels — where it neither stimulates nor restricts the economy — by the end of the year.
At that point, Lagarde has argued, policymakers will consider shrinking their balance sheet, which is bloated by nearly 5 trillion euros ($4.9 trillion) of bonds purchased under various programs and more than 2 trillion euros of long-term loans to banks.
Bank of Japan. Current policy-rate balance: -0.1%
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stands out among major central banks as the last holdout on rock-bottom rates and the view that the current wave of inflation is unsustainable.
He appears determined to keep his decade-long stimulus in place during his final six months at the helm of the bank, even if it means further falls in the yen or massive bond buying to defend a cap on 10-year yields.
For now, Kuroda has the backing of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. The government has already intervened to prop up the yen and will unveil more stimulus this quarter to mitigate the impact of higher prices inflated by the weak currency. But the focus is shifting to Kishida’s choice for Kuroda’s replacement. The nomination could come before the end of the year and will shape the direction of BOJ policy next year if the bank isn’t forced to change before then.
Bank of England. Current bank rate: 2.25%
The Bank of England was forced to take its first emergency action since the pandemic last month as Prime Minister Liz Truss’ program of unfunded tax cuts spooked markets and prompted the central bank to step in to buy gilts in an effort to avoid a full blown financial crisis.
The government’s package is also at risk at fanning inflation that’s already lingering near a 40-year high, leaving the BOE under increasing pressure to deliver its biggest rate hike since 1989 at its next decision on Nov. 3.
Investors now anticipate the central bank, led by Governor Andrew Bailey, will deliver at least a full percentage point increase in the key rate in in November and follow with more in the coming months, offsetting the impact of tax cuts and aid to cushion households from spiraling energy prices. The rate is currently 2.25%, from just 0.1% 12 months ago.
Bank of Canada. Current overnight lending rate: 3.25%
After hiking its benchmark rate by a full three percentages since March, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is expected to move ahead with at least another 75 basis points in coming months, if not more, before putting an end to one of the central bank’s most aggressive tightening cycles ever.
That’s still likely to be short of where the Fed is expected to go, a rare divergence between the two countries.
Short-term money markets are betting the Bank of Canada will stop at 4% or 4.25% and remain below US short-term rates for at least another three years.
That’s even as the Canadian economy is projected to expand at a faster pace than the US.
Historically, when Bank of Canada rates have fallen below those at the Fed, it’s typically not coincided with a relatively stronger Canadian growth picture. That may suggest markets are underestimating how high Macklem will have to go, or overestimating Canada’s capacity to grow.
BRICS CENTRAL BANKS
People’s Bank of China. Current 1-year medium-term lending rate: 2.75%
The People’s Bank of China has kept monetary policy relatively loose this year to bolster an economy hit by Covid lockdowns and a worsening property slump.
It cut its main rate in a surprise move in August, with economists predicting there could be more easing to come toward the end of this year.
Officials have signaled they have enough monetary policy room to act, especially since inflation remains fairly subdued.
A major hurdle for the PBOC is the currency’s depreciation, triggered by capital outflows as the Fed hikes rates aggressively.
The central bank has been ramping up measures to stabilize the yuan after it fell to its weakest levels since 2008. That suggests any policy easing in the remaining months of the year is likely to be modest and targeted toward specific industries, such as housing and small businesses. The bank has continued to expand structural lending tools, which offer banks cheaper liquidity for lending to favored sectors.
Reserve Bank of India. Current RBI repurchase rate: 5.9%
The Reserve Bank of India may start to taper its rate hikes after four straight increases as it balances price stability with the need to shield growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.
Governor Shaktikanta Das vowed to stay “alert and nimble” after delivering a half-percentage-point move last month to rein in stubborn inflation that’s remained above the central bank’s target this year.
He said that after the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the world is in the middle of a third major shock, which is the aggressive tightening by central banks in advanced economies that’s roiled markets including the rupee. India’s foreign-currency reserves, he said, remains robust even after a $100 billion deterioration caused mainly by revaluation.
Central Bank of Brazil. Current Selic target rate: 17.75%
Brazil’s key rate is forecast to remain at 13.75% until policy makers make sure inflation expectations return to target.
The central bank led by Roberto Campos Neto halted last month an aggressive monetary tightening campaign that took borrowing costs to their highest level in more than five years, warning it could act again if price pressures don’t dissipate.
Inflation slowed to less than 8% by mid-September on the back of gasoline tax cuts and cheaper commodities, but services prices remain a concern. Central bankers signaled their easing cycle wouldn’t start before June, though most traders bet it could begin as early as March.
Bank of Russia. Current key rate: 7.5%
The Bank of Russia lowered its benchmark rate by half a percentage point to 7.5% on Sept. 16, and signaled a pause in easing, which had more than reversed the emergency tightening following the imposition of sanctions in the wake of the Kremlin’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine.
Even before Russia’s call-up of reservists added more uncertainty to the outlook, Governor Elvira Nabiullina was pointing to renewed inflation risks and even warned the next move might be a hike.
Although consumer-price growth decelerated to 14.3% in August from its 20-year high in April, inflation expectations have risen for two months in a row and the weekly price index turned positive for the first time since May.
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