Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Stati Uniti

Inflazione e mercato cinese. Due fenomeni destinati a perdurare. – Bloomberg.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-01-02.

Cigno Nero con Pulcino 001

Lo scorso anno 2021 ha portato due scomode sorprese: l’inflazione e la crisi del mercato cinese.

* * * * * * *

«Inflation and China failed to rattle markets. 2022 might be different»

«A year ago, most economists expected that the Covid-19 pandemic would continue to weigh heavily on the global marketplace, and that the recovery process would be far from smooth»

«But two changes to the landscape — rapid inflation, and questions about the viability of investing in China — caught nearly everyone off-guard»

«And we probably wouldn’t have guessed that markets would by and large take the news in stride»

«I know of no forecaster who came close to projecting a nearly 7% U.S. inflation rate for the end of this year»

«Today, unusually high and persistent inflation has become the consensus call»

«The surge in inflation is even more striking given that, unlike what textbooks and prior experience would suggest, its impact on markets has been muted»

«Yields on government bonds, for example, have been relatively subdued, with 10-year U.S. Treasury notes still trading around 1.50%»

«What makes this even more interesting is that it comes with significant political and institutional stakes»

«From the ability of Democrats to retain control of Congress to the damaged credibility of the Federal Reserve, the 2021 inflation surprise will reverberate throughout 2022»

«Yet to the surprise of many, emerging market equities have underperformed once again»

«Even more unexpectedly, Chinese stocks have been hit hard this year»

«At the most basic level, it isn’t yet clear whether more intervention by Beijing is in the cards or whether the recent default by real estate developer Evergrande will open the way for profitable investing, much as the Russian government’s seizure of oil giant Yukos nearly two decades ago ultimately marked a turning point for investors in that country»

«Amplifying the surprise around China’s investment climate is the lack of any meaningful spread to other emerging markets»

«What occurred in China has remained in China; and what occurred there was far from the “Lehman moment” that some predicted at midyear»

«The evolution of inflation and China’s investability constituted big surprises in 2021, as did their lack of spillover into other areas»

* * * * * * *

Questo tema affrontato da Bloomberg è di notevole interesse culturale e pratico: si è in presenza di due fenomeni inattesi quanto importanti, non affrontabili con i passati schemi mentali.

Tra le molte ed importanti considerazioni una sembrerebbe essere di maggiore interesse generale.

Le borse valori, che erano nate come luogo di incontro tra capitale in cerca di investimenti ed attività produttive in cerca di capitali, hanno perso gran parte della loro funzione originaria. Il valore delle quotazioni azionarie non è più correlato allo stato di salute economica delle società: in passato queste salivano al salire della produttività, adesso invece sotto la azione della speculazione.

Un gruppetto di old friends uniti come ‘latrones scelerum foedere inter se‘ fa artatamente salire le quotazioni: raggiunto un massimo locale vende repentinamente per poi ricomprare a più basse quotazioni. Il tutto con i denari generosamente messi a disposizione delle banche centrali.

Impossibile prevedere quanto a lungo questo sistema possa campare, ma su questa terra nulla è eterno.

* * * * * * *


Inflation and China Failed to Rattle Markets. 2022 Might Be Different.

A year ago, most economists expected that the Covid-19 pandemic would continue to weigh heavily on the global marketplace, and that the recovery process would be far from smooth. But two changes to the landscape — rapid inflation, and questions about the viability of investing in China — caught nearly everyone off-guard.

Even if we had foreseen these developments, it is unlikely that we would have gotten right their broader implications. And we probably wouldn’t have guessed that markets would by and large take the news in stride. That bears remembering as we attempt to make projections for the coming year while still dogged by the pandemic and other uncertainties. 

The Inflation Surprise

I know of no forecaster who came close to projecting a nearly 7% U.S. inflation rate for the end of this year, and that includes those of us who pushed back as early as six months ago against the notion that this bout of inflation would prove to be transitory during 2021.

Today, unusually high and persistent inflation has become the consensus call. Yet even now, there is an under-appreciation of the current inflation dynamics, including supply-chain disruptions and worker shortages associated with the new Covid variant, omicron.

The surge in inflation is even more striking given that, unlike what textbooks and prior experience would suggest, its impact on markets has been muted.

Yields on government bonds, for example, have been relatively subdued, with 10-year U.S. Treasury notes still trading around 1.50%. Indeed, if anything, yields adjusted for inflation have fallen deeper into negative territory. Meanwhile, stocks have gone from one record high to another, reaching a total of 70 for the S&P 500 Index this year.

This makes the new year an uncertain proposition for the economy, for markets and for public policy. 

Will inflation derail economic growth while also worsening inequality? How long will it take for the Federal Reserve to catch up to inflation realities, and which policy measures will it deploy?

How quickly will a tightening of market financial conditions follow the pivot to fewer stimulus policies from central banks? How big will the economic and financial impact be, in the U.S. and across the world?

Will yields rise as bond investors look to limit the erosion in the real value of their investment? If so, how will stocks react?

Which countries and sectors are particularly sensitive to higher market volatility?

What makes this even more interesting is that it comes with significant political and institutional stakes. From the ability of Democrats to retain control of Congress to the damaged credibility of the Federal Reserve, the 2021 inflation surprise will reverberate throughout 2022.

The China Investability Surprise

A year ago, many (not me) were advocating that investors make a significant portfolio shift from the U.S. to emerging markets, with a heavy emphasis on China. After all, foreign stocks had again lagged behind their U.S. counterparts, adding to the apparent relative valuation advantage with which they had started the year. Meanwhile, China’s attractiveness to investors had increased. The country’s economy became the first to recover from the pandemic, adding to the promise of a continuation of an impressive multi-decade rise.

Yet to the surprise of many, emerging market equities have underperformed once again. Even more unexpectedly, Chinese stocks have been hit hard this year as, in a move that surprised many investors, the government began reining in private enterprise in tech, real estate and other  industries.

As Beijing tightened its grip, conventional assessments of economic and business fundamentals had to take a back seat to political debates about the intensity of the Chinese government’s crackdown in the name of “common prosperity.”

This is taking place even as China’s zero-Covid policy is challenged by rising infection numbers. The inclination toward a different treatment of domestic and foreign investors further complicates the investment outlook for the world’s second most powerful economy. 

At the most basic level, it isn’t yet clear whether more intervention by Beijing is in the cards or whether the recent default by real estate developer Evergrande will open the way for profitable investing, much as the Russian government’s seizure of oil giant Yukos nearly two decades ago ultimately marked a turning point for investors in that country.

Amplifying the surprise around China’s investment climate is the lack of any meaningful spread to other emerging markets. What occurred in China has remained in China; and what occurred there was far from the “Lehman moment” that some predicted at midyear.

It is particularly noteworthy that, at least so far, there has been no significant retreat of foreign capital from emerging markets as a whole. Instead, large investors have remained exposed to emerging markets, pushed there in search of higher returns by the low yields and high equity valuations in their home markets in advanced countries.

The evolution of inflation and China’s investability constituted big surprises in 2021, as did their lack of spillover into other areas. It remains to be seen how benign last year’s surprises will stay for the global economy and markets.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

Inflazione. Sta strozzando l’export in dollari dei paesi emergenti. Weimar è lì, in paziente attesa.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-25.

Cigno Nero con Pulcino 001

«Inflation is killing the dollar carry trade in emerging markets»

«The outlook for carry looks better for currencies in the Americas, and in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region than it does for Asia»

«A short-lived reprieve for emerging-market carry trades funded in dollars looks to be over, with an upsurge in US inflation making the outlook increasingly treacherous»

«A Bloomberg index of these bets has dropped more than 4% in the past two months, the biggest slide since March 2020 for a strategy of borrowing in the greenback and investing in developing-nation currencies»

«The quickest US inflation in three decades is putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten, raising the prospect of higher costs for dollar borrowers, and less extra yield — or carry»

«Many of these bets are now coming undone due to the growing concern about inflation, and about whether central banks will have to play catch up with aggressive hikes»

«→→ Sharply higher-than-expected inflation readings in the US and China will play havoc with the narrative that inflation pressures are transitory ←←»

«A tightening in global liquidity conditions due to the Fed tapering its asset purchases may also raise some obstacles for emerging-market carry»

«There’s at least some prospect emerging-market central banks will raise interest rates fast enough to ensure a sufficient yield premium to improve carry returns»

«Interest rates are rising more rapidly across Latin America and EMEA»

* * * * * * *

Il problema sarebbe anche molto semplice.

Quasi tutti gli stati del mondo, ma soprattutto quelli occidentali, hanno accumulato debiti immani e queste conseguenti liquidità non sono altrimenti gestibili che con un default oppure con una massiccia inflazione.

Se da una parte l’inflazione brucia il valore delle liquidità in eccesso, dall’altra determina una sempre maggiore pressione sugli stati avvezzi a vivere sul debito.

I tassi di interesse sono destinati a salire di conserva, gettando benzina sul fuoco della stagflazione.

Si aggiunga poi il crescente apprezzamento del dollaro americano e le continue incertezze su quello che sarà il comportamento della FED.

Nei fatti, questa è una situazione esplosiva, che potrebbe deflagrare anche senza nessun altro preavviso.

* * * * * * *


Inflation is killing the dollar carry trade in emerging markets.

The outlook for carry looks better for currencies in the Americas, and in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region than it does for Asia, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

* * *

A short-lived reprieve for emerging-market carry trades funded in dollars looks to be over, with an upsurge in US inflation making the outlook increasingly treacherous.

A Bloomberg index of these bets has dropped more than 4% in the past two months, the biggest slide since March 2020 for a strategy of borrowing in the greenback and investing in developing-nation currencies. The quickest US inflation in three decades is putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten, raising the prospect of higher costs for dollar borrowers, and less extra yield — or carry.

It’s a speedy about-face for traders, who just two months ago were taking comfort in the Fed’s dovish messaging around gradual pace of tightening, and were using the opportunity to pile into carry trades. Many of these bets are now coming undone due to the growing concern about inflation, and about whether central banks will have to play catch up with aggressive hikes.

“Sharply higher-than-expected inflation readings in the US and China will play havoc with the narrative that inflation pressures are transitory,” said Mitul Kotecha, chief emerging markets Asia and Europe strategist at TD Securities in Singapore. “This bodes badly for EM carry trades in the near term as it reduces the relative yield gap.”

A tightening in global liquidity conditions due to the Fed tapering its asset purchases may also raise some obstacles for emerging-market carry, Kotecha said.

Traders could turn to the euro and yen for cheaper funding costs. Both currencies are among the worst performers in the Group-of-10 space so far this quarter, with the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank expected to maintain an accommodative stance.

The losses in the Bloomberg index of emerging-market carry trades since the end of August come after it bounced up by 1.5% that month. The gauge, which covers eight currencies including the Brazilian real, Mexican peso and Indian rupee, is heading for a second annual loss.

Among the worst performers over the past two months, a trade of borrowing dollars and buying the Turkish lira has lost 11%, while investments in the South African rand or Hungarian forint have both dropped more than 6%. On the upside, putting funds in the Argentine peso has returned 7%.

There’s at least some prospect emerging-market central banks will raise interest rates fast enough to ensure a sufficient yield premium to improve carry returns. Investors may get further guidance about that this week with policy decisions from Turkey, Indonesia, Philippines and Hungary.

                         Picking favourites

The outlook for carry looks better for currencies in the Americas, and in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region than it does for Asia, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

The lira, Russian ruble, Mexican peso and rand are likely to generate the best returns, while the rupiah and rupee are less attractive, chief emerging-market credit strategist Damian Sassower in New York, wrote in a research note this month.

“Interest rates are rising more rapidly across Latin America and EMEA,” he said. “Asian currencies have lost their luster in 2021, as the short-dated carry embedded within high-yielding economies continues to diminish.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Biden. Sondaggio Nbc per le elezioni di midterm. Si profilerebbe un distastro.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-14.

2021-11-13__ NBC 001

«A majority of americans now disapprove of president Joe Biden’s job performance, while half give him low marks for competence and uniting the country»

«the survey finds that 7 in 10 adults, including almost half of Democrats, believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction, as well as nearly 60 percent who view Biden’s stewardship of the economy negatively just nine months into his presidency»

«One year before next year’s midterm elections and less than a week before Virginia’s closely watched race for governor, Biden’s lower standing has also taken a toll on his party»

«Democrats face a country whose opinion of President Biden has turned sharply to the negative since April»

«The promise of the Biden presidency — knowledge, competence and stability in tough times — have all been called into question»

«In the poll, 42 percent of adults say they approve of Biden’s overall job as president — a decline of 7 points since August, with much of the attrition coming from key parts of the Democratic base. …. That’s compared to 54 percent who say they disapprove of the president’s job, which is up 6 points since August»

«fallout from the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, rising inflation, disappointing jobs numbers and Democratic infighting over Biden’s legislative agenda»

«The poll finds 40 percent of Americans approving the president’s handling of the economy (down 7 points since August), and 51 percent approving of his handling of the coronavirus (down 2 points)»

«just 37 percent of adults give him high marks — on a 5-point scale — for being competent and effective as president, and only 28 percent give him high marks for uniting the country»

«71 percent of Americans say they believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, up 8 points since August»

«just 41 percent of respondents in the poll say America’s best years are ahead, while 53 percent say its best years are behind»

«Looking ahead to 2022 midterm elections, which will take place a year from now, 47 percent of registered voters say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 45 percent say they want Republicans in charge»

«Republicans hold double-digit advantages on border security (by 27 points), inflation (24 points), crime (22 points), national security (21 points), the economy (18 points) and being effective and getting things done (13 points)»

2021-11-13__ NBC 002

* * * * * * *

Questi dati al momento attuale non ammettono repliche. Di qui a midterm corre poco meno di un anno, e tutto può accadere, ma questi dati pesano molto.

«→→ In some parts of California, they’re paying $4.50 a gallon ←←»

Se Joe Biden e la Fed non riuscissero a raffreddare l’inflazione, midterm sarebbe un nuovo disastro per Joe Biden ed il partito democratico.

* * * * * * *


Biden’s job rating sinks to 42 percent in NBC News poll a year from midterms

Just nine months into his presidency, 71 percent of Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction, the poll shows.

Washington — A majority of americans now disapprove of president Joe Biden’s job performance, while half give him low marks for competence and uniting the country, according to results from the latest national NBC News poll.

What’s more, the survey finds that 7 in 10 adults, including almost half of Democrats, believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction, as well as nearly 60 percent who view Biden’s stewardship of the economy negatively just nine months into his presidency.

One year before next year’s midterm elections and less than a week before Virginia’s closely watched race for governor, Biden’s lower standing has also taken a toll on his party: Democrats trail Republicans on which party better handles the economy, inflation and immigration, while they’ve lost ground on issues like education and the coronavirus.

“Democrats face a country whose opinion of President Biden has turned sharply to the negative since April,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.

“The promise of the Biden presidency — knowledge, competence and stability in tough times — have all been called into question,” Horwitt continued.

“What people voted for was stability and calm,” added fellow Democratic pollster Peter Hart. “And what they got was instability and chaos.”

In the poll, 42 percent of adults say they approve of Biden’s overall job as president — a decline of 7 points since August, with much of the attrition coming from key parts of the Democratic base.

That’s compared to 54 percent who say they disapprove of the president’s job, which is up 6 points since August.

Using Gallup’s historical data, Biden’s approval rating in this poll (42 percent) is lower than any other modern first-year president’s at a similar point in time, with the key exception of Donald Trump (whose approval averaged 37 percent in fall 2017).

Among a narrower set of registered voters, Biden’s job rating stands at 45 percent who approve, 52 percent who disapprove — a drop from 50 percent who approve, 48 percent who disapprove from two months ago.

The NBC News poll comes after a rough summer and early fall for the first-year president, as he’s faced a new surge of coronavirus cases and deaths, fallout from the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, rising inflation, disappointing jobs numbers and Democratic infighting over Biden’s legislative agenda.

More recently, however, Covid-19 cases and deaths are once again on the decline, and Capitol Hill Democrats have made progress on Biden’s legislative priorities, but still haven’t crossed the finish line.

The poll finds 40 percent of Americans approving the president’s handling of the economy (down 7 points since August), and 51 percent approving of his handling of the coronavirus (down 2 points).

Maybe even more troubling for Biden, just 37 percent of adults give him high marks — on a 5-point scale — for being competent and effective as president, and only 28 percent give him high marks for uniting the country.

By contrast, 50 percent give him low scores for being competent, and 51 percent give him low scores for uniting the country.

Finally, Biden’s favorable/unfavorable rating in the poll (40 percent positive, 48 percent negative) is almost identical to Trump’s in the same survey (38 percent positive, 50 percent negative).

That’s a change from the 2020 general election, when Biden’s favorable/unfavorable rating was significantly higher than Trump’s.

                         71 percent say nation is on wrong track

Also in the NBC News poll, 71 percent of Americans say they believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, up 8 points since August.

“When you see a wrong track of 71 percent, it is a flashing red light,” said McInturff, the GOP pollster. “These folks are telling us that this is not going well.”

Asked about the country’s future, just 41 percent of respondents in the poll say America’s best years are ahead, while 53 percent say its best years are behind.

Despite that pessimism, however, the survey does show signs of optimism about the coronavirus and the economy.

A majority of respondents — 56 percent — believe the worst is past when it comes to the coronavirus, which is up 18 points from August, when the delta variant was beginning to surge across the country.

And 30 percent of Americans say they’re getting ahead when it comes to their financial situation, while 45 percent say they’re staying where they are. That’s compared with 24 percent who say they’re slipping behind or falling backward.

                         Looking ahead to 2022

Looking ahead to 2022 midterm elections, which will take place a year from now, 47 percent of registered voters say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 45 percent say they want Republicans in charge — essentially unchanged from August.

But the GOP enjoys a significant enthusiasm advantage at this point in the election cycle, with 69 percent of Republicans expressing a high level of interest about the midterms (on a 1-to-10 scale), versus 58 percent of Democrats who hold the same level of interest.

When asked which party better handles particular issues, Republicans hold double-digit advantages on border security (by 27 points), inflation (24 points), crime (22 points), national security (21 points), the economy (18 points) and being effective and getting things done (13 points).

By contrast, Democrats hold double-digit edges on abortion (by 10 points), the coronavirus (12 points) and climate change (24 points), but all of those advantages are smaller than those the party enjoyed during the 2020 election.

                         Will Trump be a factor — or not?

Finally, the poll finds 20 percent of registered voters saying their vote in 2022 will be a signal of opposition against Trump and 21 percent saying it will be a signal of opposition against Biden.

A majority of voters — 52 percent — say their vote won’t be a signal about either Trump or Biden.

“Little to me indicates that Trump, a year after the election, is uniquely a figure that’s driving the vote,” McInturff said.

Finally, the poll finds 20 percent of registered voters saying their vote in 2022 will be a signal of opposition against Trump and 21 percent saying it will be a signal of opposition against Biden.

A majority of voters — 52 percent — say their vote won’t be a signal about either Trump or Biden.

“Little to me indicates that Trump, a year after the election, is uniquely a figure that’s driving the vote,” McInturff said.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Canada. Sempre più acuta la carenza di manodopera specializzata.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-09.

Giulio Romano. Palazzo Gonzaga. Sala dei giganti. 004

«It’s a perfect storm in the sense that there is inflation, a shortage of workers and the aging of the population»

* * * * * * *

«Canada’s economic recovery from the pandemic is being hampered by labor shortages across industries ranging from energy to aviation to agriculture, forcing companies to consider multiple salary hikes and offer other perks»

«The shortage of skilled and unskilled workers threatens to hurt economic growth and fuel inflation, which is already at an 18-year high»

«Talent is an issue in every sector, at every level of the value chain, in every part of the country, and there’s no silver-bullet-fix at hand»

«Industry groups blame the shortage partly on COVID-19 unemployment benefits that alleviated the need for some people to work, and increased demand for better work-life balance among younger workers as older employees retire»

«to raise the numbers of temporary foreign workers»

«The company is looking for 3,000 workers to add to its 14,000-member workforce, he added»

«In the energy services sector, which is entering its busiest time of year as the winter drilling season gets underway, a shortage of labor has propelled firms to boost wages 10% since June»

«Canada’s oil and gas sector contributes about 5% to national GDP …. the labor crunch could leave companies unable to capitalize on soaring energy prices»

«It’s a perfect storm in the sense that there is inflation, a shortage of workers and the aging of the population»

«But this year is also seeing shortages of butchers and truck drivers»

* * * * * * *

California. Inefficienza dei porti induce rottura della catena di approvvigionamento.

Canada. Bank of Canada inizia il ‘great exit’. Inizia il tapering.

Canada. 2020. Turismo -48.1% anno su anno, trasporto aereo -72.4%.

Hertz dichiara bancarotta in Usa e Canada.

Canada. Il 10.67% della popolazione soffre la fame, e crepa anche per questa.

* * *

Il problema è comune in tutto l’occidente.

Invecchiamento della popolazione e crescente scarsità di giovani, sussidi governativi più appetibili del lavoro, carenza di lavoratori specializzati, repulsa ideologica verso i lavori manuali, continui aumenti dei prezzi delle materie prime, stagflazione sempre crescente.

Non ci si riesce a rassegnarsi che un lavoratore manuale possa prendere uno stipendio maggiore di quello di un impiegato.

* * * * * * *


Resource-rich Canada grapples with key commodity shortage: workers.

Calgary, Alberta, Nov 5 (Reuters) – Canada’s economic recovery from the pandemic is being hampered by labor shortages across industries ranging from energy to aviation to agriculture, forcing companies to consider multiple salary hikes and offer other perks.

Statistics Canada data on Friday showed the national unemployment rate hit a 20-month low in October. The shortage of skilled and unskilled workers threatens to hurt economic growth and fuel inflation, which is already at an 18-year high.

“Talent is an issue in every sector, at every level of the value chain, in every part of the country, and there’s no silver-bullet-fix at hand,” said Leah Nord, a senior director at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

Industry groups blame the shortage partly on COVID-19 unemployment benefits that alleviated the need for some people to work, and increased demand for better work-life balance among younger workers as older employees retire.

One solution, companies say, is to raise the numbers of temporary foreign workers. The federal government and several provinces are working on possible changes that would shorten the process to bring such workers to Canada and raise the maximum number of temporary foreign workers allowed to work per facility, said Richard Vigneault, spokesman for Quebec pork producer Olymel. The company is looking for 3,000 workers to add to its 14,000-member workforce, he added.

In the energy services sector, which is entering its busiest time of year as the winter drilling season gets underway, a shortage of labor has propelled firms to boost wages 10% since June, according to the Canadian Association of Energy Contractors (CAOEC).

To attract workers, companies are also offering more flexibility in the hours they operate.

Canada’s oil and gas sector contributes about 5% to national GDP and CAOEC Chief Executive Mark Scholz said the labor crunch could leave companies unable to capitalize on soaring energy prices.

Precision Drilling, Canada’s biggest rig contractor, is offering referral bonuses and incentives to recruiting teams to help address worker shortages, CEO Kevin Neveu said.

“I’ll tell you, it’s a big challenge right now,” Neveu told a third-quarter earnings call.

Suzanne Benoit, president of aerospace trade group Aero Montreal, said some Canadian companies are considering whether to raise salaries twice in the same year to retain workers.

“They feel obliged, or the people will leave,” Benoit said on the sidelines of the organization’s recent supply chain summit in Montreal, the country’s aerospace hub.

“It’s a perfect storm in the sense that there is inflation, a shortage of workers and the aging of the population,” she added.

The agriculture sector has long struggled to hire enough workers to pick fruits and vegetables. But this year is also seeing shortages of butchers and truck drivers, said Debra Hauer, manager of labor market intelligence at the Canadian Agricultural Human Resources Council.

Staffing shortages may improve as the government transitions people off its main emergency income support program and onto traditional unemployment benefits.

But some sectors could see extended shortages, including in the oil sands’ next maintenance season in early 2022.

“There are just not enough people to go around,” said Hugh MacDonald, business manager for the Boilermakers Lodge 146 union in northern Alberta. “Next spring, I don’t know what we’re going to do.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Problemia Energetici, Stati Uniti

Biden. Si dichiara impotente contro la inflazione. I Cittadini se la tengano. – Cnbc.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-31.

2021-10-28__ Biden Inflazione 001

«the administration can create a problem, and then declare an emergency arising from the problem it created»

«Prices at the pump are increasing as global oil prices surge 70% this year»

«The White House has acknowledged it has few options»

«60% said the administration is not focused closely enough on the issue»

* * * * * * *

«Biden has few options to combat surging gas prices as voters grow concerned about inflation»

«Retail gas prices – averaging $3.38 per gallon on Oct. 25 – have risen roughly 50% in 2021, surpassing pre-pandemic levels»

«inflation is hitting Americans’ wallets and threatening the economic rebound heading into the 2022 midterm elections»

«→→ The White House has acknowledged it has limited options to address the problem ←←»

«For months, the Biden administration has vowed to use every tool at its disposal to curb rising energy prices that are contributing to inflation across the country, but there aren’t many tools available to the White House»

«Administration officials have suggested privately that a release from the strategic petroleum reserve would have a negligible impact, and curtailing exports would risk angering allies and violating long-term business contracts»

«→→ Prices at the pump are increasing as global oil prices surge 70% this year ←←»

«U.S. production below pre-pandemic levels»

«The White House has acknowledged it has few options»

«domestic energy advocates say the White House’s own environmental policies have served to limit the supply of oil and natural gas coming into the market»

«At the start of the year, President Joe Biden cancelled a permit for the Keystone XL Pipeline and paused drilling activity on federal lands and waters»

«The Bureau of Ocean Management will lease water in the Gulf of Mexico this year, a sale rescheduled after the federal judge’s injunction»

«Louisiana is one of 13 energy-producing states that are suing the administration over the drilling ban»

«→→ I don’t think that the administration can create a problem, and then declare an emergency arising from the problem it created ←←»

«That’s not an emergency, that’s a problem you created yourself»

«inflation is hitting Americans’ wallets and threatening the economic rebound heading into the 2022 midterm elections»

* * * * * * *

Joe Biden si è cacciato in un vicolo cieco, e con lui l’America.

Gli Stati Uniti sono in stagflazione.

In ossequio alla sua ideologia liberal, agendo sotto la spinta di un pensiero dominante coatto, Joe Biden ha bloccato sia la estrazione del natural gas sia quella del petrolio, prodotti energetici che adesso deve importare pagando un prezzo ben salato.

I prezzi delle materie prime energetiche sono quasi raddoppiati nel volgere di pochi mesi sui mercati internazionali.

Se è vero che Joe Biden ben poco può fare sui mercati mondiali, questa è inflazione importata, una mente pragmatica toglierebbe immediatamente i vincoli che lui stesso ha imposto alla produzione di natural gas e di petrolio.

Così facendo, almeno questo problema sarebbe completamente risolto.

* * * * * * *


Biden has few options to combat surging gas prices as voters grow concerned about inflation.

– Retail gas prices – averaging $3.38 per gallon on Oct. 25 – have risen roughly 50% in 2021, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.

– There are “no immediate plans” to tap into emergency reserves or limit energy exports outside the United States, the Energy Department told CNBC.

– Combined with price spikes across a variety of goods, inflation is hitting Americans’ wallets and threatening the economic rebound heading into the 2022 midterm elections. 

– The White House has acknowledged it has limited options to address the problem.

* * *

For months, the Biden administration has vowed to use every tool at its disposal to curb rising energy prices that are contributing to inflation across the country, but there aren’t many tools available to the White House.

There are “no immediate plans” to tap into emergency reserves or limit energy exports outside the United States, the Energy Department told CNBC. Those are two market levers the executive branch could pull.

Administration officials have suggested privately that a release from the strategic petroleum reserve would have a negligible impact, and curtailing exports would risk angering allies and violating long-term business contracts. 

Retail gas prices – averaging $3.38 per gallon on Oct. 25 – have risen roughly 50% in 2021, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. Prices at the pump are increasing as global oil prices surge 70% this year due in part to a rebound in demand from pandemic lows.

Supply is also constrained, with U.S. production below pre-pandemic levels and OPEC and its allies keeping barrels off the global market.

The White House has acknowledged it has few options. “There are limitations to what any president can do, as it relates to gas prices,” press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters Friday. 

The White House said it directed the Federal Trade Commission to investigate possible price gouging and the National Security Council to urge countries represented by OPEC+ to increase production.

Oil prices are the byproduct of market forces of supply and demand, and domestic energy advocates say the White House’s own environmental policies have served to limit the supply of oil and natural gas coming into the market. 

At the start of the year, President Joe Biden cancelled a permit for the Keystone XL Pipeline and paused drilling activity on federal lands and waters. A judge overturned the drilling ban and ordered the Biden administration to restart leasing activity. The administration is appealing the decision.

The federal government will resume leasing land for oil and gas drilling next year, after the Bureau of Land Management cancelled planned quarterly lease auctions in 2021 to comply with the White House’s executive order calling for a comprehensive review of the program.

The Bureau of Ocean Management will lease water in the Gulf of Mexico this year, a sale rescheduled after the federal judge’s injunction.

Louisiana is one of 13 energy-producing states that are suing the administration over the drilling ban. State Solicitor General Liz Murrill says the White House should “take the handcuffs” off energy producers if it wants to improve the situation sooner.   

“I don’t think that the administration can create a problem, and then declare an emergency arising from the problem it created,” Murrill told CNBC.  “That’s not an emergency, that’s a problem you created yourself.”

Combined with price spikes across a variety of goods, inflation is hitting Americans’ wallets and threatening the economic rebound heading into the 2022 midterm elections. 

Voters are increasingly blaming Biden for the spike in prices: 66% of respondents in an early October survey conducted by CBS News blamed U.S. government policy for inflation, and 60% said the administration is not focused closely enough on the issue. 

“Politically speaking, Democrats need the economy to be going as well as it can,” said Stephen Myrow, managing partner of Beacon Policy Advisors and a former Treasury official. “At the same time, [Biden] has prioritized climate change and clean energy, and inevitably there’s conflict between those priorities.” 

The conflict is intensifying in the weeks leading up to the United Nations climate summit beginning in Glasgow, Scotland on Nov. 1. According to progressive lawmakers, Biden has said he needs to show up with a trillion-dollar policy framework on climate change to protect “American prestige.” 

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Regno Unito

Banca Inghilterra. Verosimile una inflazione sopra il 5%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-28.

Regno Unito 001

PCI, Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo, +3.1%, dato del 20 ottobre 2021

PPI, Producer Price Index, +11.4%, dato del 20 ottobre 2021

Vendite al dettaglio -2.6%, dato del 22 ottobre 2021

Immatricolazioni auto -34.4%, dato del 15 ottobre 2021

* * * * * * *

«→→ Bank of England official warns inflation could top 5% as UK economy slows ←←»

«→→ Inflation could surge above 5% early next year in the United Kingdom ←←»

«I would not be shocked — let’s put it that way — if we see an inflation print close to or above 5% [in the months ahead], ….And that’s a very uncomfortable place for a central bank with an inflation target of 2% to be»

«But there are signs the recovery is faltering, even as inflation remains stubbornly high»

«The latest worrying signal came Friday, when the Office for National Statistics said that retail sales volumes fell for a fifth consecutive month in September»

«United Kingdom may be entering a period of “stagflation” characterized by weak economic growth and rising prices»

«The whiff of stagflation is greater in the UK than in most other economies and we now think temporary shortages will restrain GDP for longer and boost inflation by more than we previously thought»

«The United Kingdom is facing severe labor shortages, including a shortfall of 100,000 truck drivers, and workers are demanding higher wages, contributing to inflation»

«British consumer goods giant Unilever (UL) — which sells products around the world — said Thursday that it hiked prices by 4.1% in the quarter to September»

* * * * * * *

Il Regno Unito è entrato nella stagflazione.

Se sicuramente la situazione politica ed economica mondiale non favorisca una ripresa, altrettanto sicuramente si dovrebbe ammettere che l’odio ideologico nutrito contro il carbone abbia potentemente concorso al rapido deterioramento della situazione economica.

* * * * * * *

Bank of England official warns inflation could top 5% as UK economy slows.

London (CNN Business) Inflation could surge above 5% early next year in the United Kingdom, according to the Bank of England’s top economist, as product and labor shortages continue to hamper the country’s economic recovery.

“I would not be shocked — let’s put it that way — if we see an inflation print close to or above 5% [in the months ahead],” Huw Pill told the Financial Times. “And that’s a very uncomfortable place for a central bank with an inflation target of 2% to be.”

Pill declined to reveal how he would vote at the Bank of England’s next meeting on November 4, but he said that the question of whether policymakers should hike interest rates from 0.1% is “live.” Central banks use interest rates to keep inflation low and stable.

Inflation has been running near 3% in the United Kingdom as the country’s economy bounces back from a steep contraction in 2020 caused by the coronavirus pandemic. But there are signs the recovery is faltering, even as inflation remains stubbornly high.

The latest worrying signal came Friday, when the Office for National Statistics said that retail sales volumes fell for a fifth consecutive month in September. That’s the longest streak of consecutive declines since records began in 1996. Non-retail spending was also weak.

Economists worry that the United Kingdom may be entering a period of “stagflation” characterized by weak economic growth and rising prices.

“The whiff of stagflation is greater in the UK than in most other economies and we now think temporary shortages will restrain GDP for longer and boost inflation by more than we previously thought,” Capital Economics analysts wrote this week.

“This won’t be anywhere near as severe or as persistent as in the 1970s,” the analysts said.

“But for the next six months, the worsening product and labor shortages will put the brakes on the economic recovery at the same time as higher energy prices drive up CPI inflation from 3.2% in August to a peak of around 5.0% in April next year,” they added.

The United Kingdom is facing severe labor shortages, including a shortfall of 100,000 truck drivers, and workers are demanding higher wages, contributing to inflation. Energy prices have risen sharply across Europe, and some businesses are passing along higher costs to consumers.

British consumer goods giant Unilever (UL) — which sells products around the world — said Thursday that it hiked prices by 4.1% in the quarter to September.

Governor Andrew Bailey said last weekend that the Bank of England would “have to act” in response to surging prices. He said he continues to “believe that higher inflation will be temporary,” but conceded it could last longer than previously thought as a result of energy price hikes.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Usa. Governo avvisa la popolazione che le bollette di gas e luce saliranno del 40%, almeno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-18.

Biden 001

Lo U.S. Energy Information Administration ha rilasciato un report a nome del Governo degli Stati Uniti in cui si avvisa la popolazione che, a seguito dei rincari delle materie prime, le bollette di gas e corrente elettrica saliranno di almeno il 40% rispetto lo scorso anno. E l’inverno si preannuncerebbe essere rigido. Non è una barzelletta.

* * * * * * *

«With prices surging worldwide for heating oil, natural gas and other fuels, the U.S. government said Wednesday it expects households to see their heating bills jump as much as 54% compared to last winter»

«Get ready to pay sharply higher bills for heating this winter, along with seemingly everything else»

«With prices surging worldwide for heating oil, natural gas and other fuels, the U.S. government said Wednesday it expects households to see their heating bills jump as much as 54% compared to last winter»

«Nearly half the homes in the U.S. use natural gas for heat, and they could pay an average $746 this winter, 30% more than a year ago»

«Those in the Midwest could get particularly pinched, with bills up an estimated 49%, and this could be the most expensive winter for natural-gas heated homes»

«The second-most used heating source for homes is electricity, making up 41% of the country, and those households could see a more modest 6% increase to $1,268»

«Homes using heating oil, which make up 4% of the country, could see a 43% increase — more than $500 — to $1,734»

«This winter is forecast to be slightly colder across the country than last year»

«If the winter ends up being even colder than forecast, heating bills could be higher than estimated, and vice-versa»

«The forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is the latest reminder of the higher inflation ripping across the global economy»

«The higher prices hit everyone, with pay raises for most workers so far failing to keep up with inflation. But they hurt low-income households in particular»

«To make ends meet, families are cutting deeply. Nearly 22% of Americans had to reduce or forego expenses for basic necessities, such as medicine or food, to pay an energy bill in at least one of the last 12 months»

«Natural gas in the United States, for example, has climbed to its highest price since 2014 and is up roughly 90% over the last year. The wholesale price of heating oil, meanwhile, has more than doubled in the last 12 months»

«In Europe, strong demand and limited supplies have sent natural gas prices up more than 350% this year»

«Heating oil prices, meanwhile, are tied closely to the price of crude oil, which has climbed more than 60% this year»

* * * * * * *

Beh: tutti si lamentavano che l’Amministrazione giacesse inerte come una megattera spiaggiata.

A quanti si lamenteranno a calde lacrime, l’Administration potrà sempre rispondere che li aveva preavvisati per tempo.

Questa è la unica risposta ben meditata della Harris-Biden Administration al problema della stagflazione: come si constata, è degna del Premio Nobel per la economia.

* * * * * * *


Winter heating bills set to jump as inflation hits home.

With prices surging worldwide for heating oil, natural gas and other fuels, the U.S. government said Wednesday it expects households to see their heating bills jump as much as 54% compared to last winter.

* * *

New York — Get ready to pay sharply higher bills for heating this winter, along with seemingly everything else.

With prices surging worldwide for heating oil, natural gas and other fuels, the U.S. government said Wednesday it expects households to see their heating bills jump as much as 54% compared to last winter.

Nearly half the homes in the U.S. use natural gas for heat, and they could pay an average $746 this winter, 30% more than a year ago. Those in the Midwest could get particularly pinched, with bills up an estimated 49%, and this could be the most expensive winter for natural-gas heated homes since 2008-2009.

The second-most used heating source for homes is electricity, making up 41% of the country, and those households could see a more modest 6% increase to $1,268. Homes using heating oil, which make up 4% of the country, could see a 43% increase — more than $500 — to $1,734. The sharpest increases are likely for homes that use propane, which account for 5% of U.S. households.

This winter is forecast to be slightly colder across the country than last year. That means people will likely be burning more fuel to keep warm, on top of paying more for each bit of it. If the winter ends up being even colder than forecast, heating bills could be higher than estimated, and vice-versa.

The forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is the latest reminder of the higher inflation ripping across the global economy. Earlier Wednesday, the government released a separate report showing that prices were 5.4% higher for U.S. consumers in September than a year ago. That matches the hottest inflation rate since 2008, as a reawakening economy and snarled supply chains push up prices for everything from cars to groceries.

The higher prices hit everyone, with pay raises for most workers so far failing to keep up with inflation. But they hurt low-income households in particular.

“After the beating that people have taken in the pandemic, it’s like: What’s next?” said Carol Hardison, chief executive officer at Crisis Assistance Ministry, which helps people in Charlotte, North Carolina, who are facing financial hardship.

She said households coming in for assistance recently have had unpaid bills that are roughly twice as big as they were before the pandemic. They’re contending with more expensive housing, higher medical bills and sometimes a reduction in their hours worked.

“It’s what we know about this pandemic: It’s hit the same people that were already struggling with wages not keeping up with the cost of living,” she said.

To make ends meet, families are cutting deeply. Nearly 22% of Americans had to reduce or forego expenses for basic necessities, such as medicine or food, to pay an energy bill in at least one of the last 12 months, according to a September survey by the U.S. Census Bureau.

“This is going to create significant hardship for people in the bottom third of the country,” said Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors’ Association. “You can tell them to cut back and try to turn down the heat at night, but many low-income families already do that. Energy was already unaffordable to them.”

Many of those families are just now getting through a hot summer where they faced high air-conditioning bills.

Congress apportions some money to energy assistance programs for low-income households, but directors of those programs are now watching their purchasing power shrink as fuel costs keep climbing, Wolfe said.

The biggest reason for this winter’s higher heating bills is the recent surge in prices for energy commodities after they dropped to multi-year lows in 2020. Demand has simply grown faster than production as the economy roars back to life following shutdowns caused by the coronavirus.

Natural gas in the United States, for example, has climbed to its highest price since 2014 and is up roughly 90% over the last year. The wholesale price of heating oil, meanwhile, has more than doubled in the last 12 months.

Another reason for the rise is how global the market for fuels has become. In Europe, strong demand and limited supplies have sent natural gas prices up more than 350% this year. That’s pushing some of the natural gas produced in the United States to head for ships bound for other countries, adding upward pressure on domestic prices as well.

The amount of natural gas in storage inventories is relatively low, according to Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh. That means there’s less of a cushion heading into winter heating season.

Heating oil prices, meanwhile, are tied closely to the price of crude oil, which has climbed more than 60% this year. Homes affected by those increases are primarily in the Northeast, where the percentage of homes using heating oil has dropped to 18% from 27% over the past decade.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Usa. Sept21. PPI, Indice dei Prezzi di Produzione +8.6% anno su anno. Mai così alto dal 1975.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-16.

2021-10-15__ Usa PPI 001

Questo è l’aumento dell’inflazione più alto dal 1975.

«On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 8.6 percent for the 12 months ended in September, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010»

«For the 12 months ended in September, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 5.9 percent.»

«In September, 40 percent of the broad-based advance can be attributed to a 2.8-percent jump in prices for final demand energy»

«Leading the advance in the index for final demand goods, prices for gasoline rose 3.9 percent»

«→→ Over two-thirds of the September increase in prices for final demand services can be traced to margins for fuels and lubricants retailing, which rose 11.6 percent ←←»

«→→ For the 12 months ended in September, prices for processed goods for intermediate demand advanced 23.9 percent, the largest 12-month increase since jumping 26.3 percent in January 1975 ←←»

«One-fifth of the September increase in the index for processed goods for intermediate demand can be attributed to a 9.8-percent rise in prices for primary basic organic chemicals»

« For the 12 months ended in September, prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand jumped 45.9 percent.»

«A major factor in the September increase in prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand was the index for natural gas, which advanced 14.4 percent»

«For the 12 months ended in September, prices for stage 3 intermediate demand advanced 20.2 percent»

«For the 12 months ended in September, the index for stage 2 intermediate demand increased 22.7 percent»

«For the 12 months ended in September, prices for stage 1intermediate demand increased 19.9 percent.»

2021-10-15__ Usa PPI 002

* * * * * * *

Il PPI, Producer Price Index, Indice dei Prezzi di Produzione, evidenzia una crescita dell”8.6% anno su anno.

È il valore più alto dal gennaio 1975.

Gli aumenti dei costi alla produzione si riverbereranno nel tempo come aumenti dei prezzi al consumo.

L’inflazione c’è, non è transitoria, e ce la terremo assieme alla stasi della produzione industriale: in altri termini, gli Usa sono in stagflazione.

* * * * * * *


Bureau of Labor Statistics. Producer Price Indexes – September 2021

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.7 percent in August and 1.0 percent in July. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 8.6 percent for the 12 months ended in September, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.

Nearly 80 percent of the September increase in the index for final demand can be traced to a 1.3-percent rise in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent. Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.1 percent in September after increasing 0.3 percent in August. For the 12 months ended in September, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 5.9 percent.

                         Final Demand

Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods moved up 1.3 percent in September, the largest increase since a 1.5-percent rise in May. In September, 40 percent of the broad-based advance can be attributed to a 2.8-percent jump in prices for final demand energy. The indexes for final demand goods less foods and energy and for final demand foods also moved up, 0.6 percent and 2.0 percent, respectively.

Product detail: Leading the advance in the index for final demand goods, prices for gasoline rose 3.9 percent. The indexes for beef and veal, residential electric power, fresh and dry vegetables, gas fuels, and primary basic organic chemicals also moved higher. In contrast, prices for plastic resins and materials decreased 3.9 percent. The indexes for corn and for residual fuels also fell. (See table 4.)

Final demand services: Prices for final demand services moved up 0.2 percent in September, the ninth consecutive advance. Leading the increase in September, the index for final demand trade services rose 0.9 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) Prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing advanced 0.2 percent. Conversely, the index for final demand transportation and warehousing services fell 4.0 percent.

Product detail: Over two-thirds of the September increase in prices for final demand services can be traced to margins for fuels and lubricants retailing, which rose 11.6 percent. The indexes for machinery and equipment wholesaling, hospital inpatient care, automobiles and automobile parts retailing, portfolio management, and truck transportation of freight also moved up. In contrast, prices for airline passenger services fell 16.9 percent. The indexes for health, beauty, and optical goods retailing and for bundled wired telecommunications access services also declined.

                         Intermediate Demand by Commodity Type

Within intermediate demand in September, prices for processed goods moved up 1.3 percent, the index for unprocessed goods increased 2.4 percent, and prices for services rose 0.5 percent. (See tables B and C.) Processed goods for intermediate demand: The index for processed goods for intermediate demand advanced 1.3 percent in September after climbing 1.0 percent in August. Sixty percent of the broad-based September increase can be traced to prices for processed materials less foods and energy, which moved up 1.1 percent. The indexes for processed energy goods and for processed foods and feeds rose 2.0 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively. For the 12 months ended in September, prices for processed goods for intermediate demand advanced 23.9 percent, the largest 12-month increase since jumping 26.3 percent in January 1975.

Product detail: One-fifth of the September increase in the index for processed goods for intermediate demand can be attributed to a 9.8-percent rise in prices for primary basic organic chemicals. The indexes for hot rolled steel sheet and strip, diesel fuel, fabricated structural metal products, gasoline, and beef and veal also moved higher. Conversely, prices for softwood veneer and plywood dropped 44.9 percent. The indexes for residual fuels and for pork also decreased. (See table 5.)

Unprocessed goods for intermediate demand: Prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand moved up 2.4 percent in September, the largest advance since rising 2.7 percent in June. Leading the September increase, the index for unprocessed energy materials climbed 8.5 percent. Prices for unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs edged up 0.1 percent. In contrast, the index for unprocessed nonfood materials less energy declined 3.5 percent. For the 12 months ended in September, prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand jumped 45.9 percent.

Product detail: A major factor in the September increase in prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand was the index for natural gas, which advanced 14.4 percent. Prices for crude petroleum, slaughter poultry, slaughter barrows and gilts, slaughter steers and heifers, and aluminum base scrap also rose. Conversely, the index for carbon steel scrap fell 4.1 percent. Prices for corn and for raw milk also decreased.

Services for intermediate demand: The index for services for intermediate demand rose 0.5 percent in September, the tenth consecutive advance. In September, 40 percent of the broad-based increase can be traced to prices for services less trade, transportation, and warehousing for intermediate demand, which moved up 0.2 percent. Margins for trade services for intermediate demand and the index for transportation and warehousing services for intermediate demand also advanced, 0.6 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively. For the 12 months ended in September, prices for services for intermediate demand rose 8.0 percent.

Product detail: A 4.9-percent increase in the index for business loans (partial) was a major factor in the September rise in prices for services for intermediate demand. The indexes for arrangement of freight and cargo transportation; machinery and equipment parts and supplies wholesaling; courier, messenger, and U.S. postal services; food wholesaling; and building materials, paint, and hardware wholesaling also moved higher. In contrast, prices for airline passenger services fell 16.9 percent. The indexes for metals, minerals, and ores wholesaling and for internet advertising sales (excluding print publishers) also declined.

                         Intermediate Demand by Production Flow

Stage 4 intermediate demand: Prices for stage 4 intermediate demand rose 0.4 percent in September following a 0.8-percent increase in August. In September, the index for total goods inputs to stage 4 intermediate demand climbed 0.5 percent, and prices for total services inputs moved up 0.4 percent. (See table D.) Advances in the indexes for fabricated structural metal products; machinery and equipment parts and supplies wholesaling; courier, messenger, and U.S. postal services; hot rolled steel sheet and strip; beef and veal; and portfolio management outweighed declines in the indexes for airline passenger services; corn; and metals, minerals, and ores wholesaling. (See table 6.) For the 12 months ended in September, prices for stage 4 intermediate demand rose 11.6 percent.

Stage 3 intermediate demand: Prices for stage 3 intermediate demand advanced 1.0 percent in September, the same as in August. In September, the index for total goods inputs to stage 3 intermediate demand rose 1.2 percent, and prices for total services inputs moved up 0.8 percent. Increases in the indexes for primary basic organic chemicals; slaughter poultry; hot rolled steel sheet and strip; arrangement of freight and cargo transportation; courier, messenger, and U.S. postal services; and slaughter barrows and gilts outweighed decreases in the indexes for corn; raw milk; and metals, minerals, and ores wholesaling. For the 12 months ended in September, prices for stage 3 intermediate demand advanced 20.2 percent.

Stage 2 intermediate demand: Prices for stage 2 intermediate demand rose 2.5 percent in September, the sixth consecutive increase. In September, the index for total goods inputs to stage 2 intermediate demand jumped 4.0 percent, and prices for total services inputs climbed 1.1 percent. Advances in the indexes for gas fuels, crude petroleum, arrangement of freight and cargo transportation, business loans (partial), primary basic organic chemicals, and fuels and lubricants retailing outweighed falling prices for airline passenger services, carbon steel scrap, and oilseeds. For the 12 months ended in September, the index for stage 2 intermediate demand increased 22.7 percent.

Stage 1 intermediate demand: Prices for stage 1 intermediate demand moved up 0.2 percent in September following a 0.9-percent increase in August. In September, the index for total goods inputs to stage 1 intermediate demand rose 0.9 percent. Conversely, prices for total services inputs fell 0.5 percent. Advances in the indexes for primary basic organic chemicals; hot rolled steel sheet and strip; diesel fuel; fabricated structural metal products; building materials, paint, and hardware wholesaling; and courier, messenger, and U.S. postal services outweighed declines in the indexes for airline passenger services; corn; and hardware, building materials, and supplies retailing. For the 12 months ended in September, prices for stage 1intermediate demand increased 19.9 percent.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Germania. Settembre21. WPI, Indice dei prezzi all’ingrosso +13.2%. – Destatis.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-14.

2021-10-14__ Germania Wholesales 001

L’indice dei prezzi all’ingrosso (Wholesale Price Index, WPI) misura il cambiamento nel prezzo dei beni venduti dai grossisti ad altri grossisti.

È un ottimo indicatore del processo inflattivo, perché le variazioni si ripercuotono immancabilmente sui costi al consumo.

* * * * * * *

Ricordiamo come in Germania il PPI, Core Producer Price Index, valga 12.0%

Il PPI è un indicatore inflazionistico che misura il cambiamento medio dei prezzi di vendita praticati dai produttori nazionali di beni e servizi.

Il PPI misura il cambiamento del prezzo dal punto di vista del Venditore.

Il PPI considera tre aree di produzione: basate sull’industria, basate sulle materie prime e fase di lavorazione.

* * * * * * *


Destatis. Wholesale prices in September 2021: +13.2% on September 2020

Pressrelease #479 from 12 October 2021

Wholesale selling prices, September 2021

+0.8% on the previous month

+13.2% on the same month a year earlier

* * * * * * *

WIESBADEN – In September 2021 the selling prices in wholesale trade rose by 13.2% compared with September 2020. This was the highest monthly annual rate of change since June 1974 after the first oil crisis (+13.3% compared with June 1973). In August 2021 and in July 2021 the annual rates of change had been +12.3% and +11.3%, respectively.

From August 2021 to September 2021 the index rose by 0.8%.

The high rates of change for wholesale prices in annual comparison derive from increased prices for raw materials and intermediate products, as well as a base effect due to last years very low price levels in the context of the corona crisis.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

ECB. Eurozona PPI +12.1% YoY. I consiglieri sono in rivolta.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-01.

Michelamgelo Minosse 010

Questa è in sintesi la situazione attuale del Blocco Europeo.

Zona Euro. PPI, Indice dei prezzi alla produzione, 12.1% anno su anno

Germania. PPI, Indice dei prezzi alla produzione, 12.0% anno su anno

Italia. PPI, Indice dei prezzi alla produzione, 10.4% anno su anno

Terre Basse. PPI, Indice dei prezzi alla produzione, 13.4% anno su anno

Spagna. PPI, Indice dei prezzi alla produzione, 18.0% anno su anno

Wholesale power and gas prices +250% anno su anno

* * * * * * *

I Membri del Governing Council hanno già ripetutamente avvertito la ECB del pericolo dell’inflazione ingravescente.

ECB. Weidmann e Wunsch votano contro la Lagarde sui tassi di interesse.

Weidmann. ECB dovrebbe ridurre gli stimoli dettati dalla emergenza.

ECB’s Knot Warns Central Bank Could Be Underestimating Inflation

De Nederlandsche Bank. Presidente Knot. ECB tapering entro il marzo2022.

Finanza occidentale. Etf. Uno dei drammi della liquidità delle banche centrali.

Ecb. Fuoco amico (nemico) sulla Lagarde e sulla Ecb. Troppo queruli.

Ecb. Detiene 2,267.424 mld di bond pubblici. Après moi, le déluge.

* * * * * * *

Adesso si unisce ai rivoltosi anche Mario Centeno, Membro del Concilio di Governo della ECB, Governatore della Banca Centrale del Portogallo.

«The ECB has so far insisted that price increases are temporary and it is not yet time to reduce its pandemic-era stimulus measures»

«The European Central Bank needs to be “even more conservative” in how it reacts to inflation in order to avoid repeating past mistakes, Governing Council Member Mario Centeno has told CNBC»

«Rising inflation generally requires a tighter monetary policy, but the ECB has so far insisted that the price increases are temporary and it is not yet time to reduce its pandemic-era stimulus measures»

«The central bank created a new bond-purchase program in March 2020 to support the 19-member bloc throughout the pandemic»

«This program, known as PEPP, is currently set to last until March 2022 and total up to 1.85 trillion euros ($2.2 trillion)»

«At a meeting earlier this month, the ECB decided to slow down the pace of purchases, but ECB President Lagarde said it was not tapering — just a recalibration»

«ECB President Christine Lagarde said that inflation should return to more stable terms next year, “because many of the causes of higher prices are temporary.”»

«Earlier this month, the ECB estimated an inflation rate of 2.2% at the end of year»

* * * * * * *

Christine Lagarde è una persona querula, ben conscia che il suo starnazzare aveva in passato salvato il Campidoglio.

Si resta in ogni caso stupefatti dei dati che riporta sulla inflazione, che sembrerebbero essere del tutto fantasiosi quando siano messi a confronto dei macrodati disponibili.

La sua nomina non fu scelta felice.

* * * * * * *


ECB member says the central bank needs to be ‘even more conservative’.

– The ECB has so far insisted that price increases are temporary and it is not yet time to reduce its pandemic-era stimulus measures.

– “We were fooled by some news on inflation in the past, which prompted us to act in the wrong way,” Centeno said.

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London — The European Central Bank needs to be “even more conservative” in how it reacts to inflation in order to avoid repeating past mistakes, Governing Council Member Mario Centeno has told CNBC.

The central bank is currently under some pressure given that consumer prices have spiked in recent months. Euro zone inflation hit a 10-year high in August, coming in at 3% from a year ago.

Rising inflation generally requires a tighter monetary policy, but the ECB has so far insisted that the price increases are temporary and it is not yet time to reduce its pandemic-era stimulus measures.

“We were fooled by some news on inflation in the past, which prompted us to act in the wrong way, so we don’t want, definitely, to commit the same sort of errors this time,” Centeno, who serves as the governor of the central bank of Portugal, said on Monday.

The ECB shocked markets when it opted to increase interest rates in 2011, just as the sovereign debt crisis was spreading across the bloc. At the time, then-President Jean-Claude Trichet defended the decision citing higher inflation numbers, but critics have described it as a tipping point for the euro zone — and not in a good way.

“We need to guarantee favorable financing conditions to all sectors in our economy as we go out of [the] crisis and we are not yet there, we are not yet out of the woods,” Centeno said, defending the central bank’s current loose monetary policy stance.

The central bank created a new bond-purchase program in March 2020 to support the 19-member bloc throughout the pandemic. This program, known as PEPP, is currently set to last until March 2022 and total up to 1.85 trillion euros ($2.2 trillion).

At a meeting earlier this month, the ECB decided to slow down the pace of purchases, but ECB President Lagarde said it was not tapering — just a recalibration.

“We need to be very — I’d say even more — conservative in the way we tackle this issue,” he added.

Speaking to CNBC last week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that inflation should return to more stable terms next year, “because many of the causes of higher prices are temporary.”

These include higher energy prices and bottlenecks in supply chains.

Earlier this month, the ECB estimated an inflation rate of 2.2% at the end of year. This number is then expected to come down to 1.7% and 1.5%, respectively in 2022 and 2023. Revised forecasts are due in December.

But some experts have questioned whether some inflationary pressures are here to stay.

When speaking with CNBC, Centeno reiterated that, so far, inflation is not where the ECB wants it to be before reducing stimulus.

“We already see something going on that front, but when we look at our projection horizon, inflation is not anchored yet at 2%,” he said, adding that as a result the ECB needs to continue with its set of measures.