Pubblicato in: Commercio, Materie Prime

Indonesia. Settembre21. Export +47.64%, Import +40.1%. Surplus 4.37 mld Usd.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-16.

2021-10-16__ Indonesia 001

La Indonesia prosegue con decisione la sua crescita economica, nonostante la pandemia e la crisi economica globale, grazie alla vendita di materie prime.

* * * * * * *

«Exports +47.6% y/y, vs +51.6% in poll»

«Imports +40.3% y/y, vs +50% in poll»

«$4.37 bln surplus is bigger than $3.84 bln seen in poll»

«Indonesia’s September trade surplus was larger than expected as exports surged on the back of booming commodity prices, government data showed on Friday»

«The resource-rich country booked a September trade surplus of $4.37 billion»

«That was above the median estimate of $3.84 billion»

«Indonesia recorded an all-time high surplus of $4.74 billion in August. It has posted a trade surplus every month since May 2020»

«The trade surplus would also help Southeast Asia’s largest economy narrow its current account deficit, making its financial market less vulnerable to capital outflows and allowing the central bank to keep monetary policy accommodative for longer»

«Bank Indonesia is expected to keep its main policy rates unchanged until the third quarter of 2022»

«Shipments of coal and copper remained strong, each rising more than 160%, while overseas sales of palm oil products, steel and oil and gas also registered high growth»

* * * * * * *

Indonesia. Carbone. Dice di volerlo dismettere e costruisce nuove centrali termiche.

Indonesia. Maggio21. Import +68.68%, Export +58.76%, anno su anno.

Indonesia. Export +51.94%, Import +29.93%, anno su anno.

Indonesia. Marzo21. Export +30.47%, Import +25.73%, anno su anno. – Statistics Indonesia.

Indonesia. Inaugurato il porto strategico di Patimban.

Indonesia. Nuova legge sul lavoro. Ambientalisti sul piede di guerra.

Indonesia. Bloccato l’export del nickel estrattivo.

Indonesia. La società civile si ribella e riporta l’omosessualità nel codice penale.

* * * * * * *

L’Indonesia presenta una crescita economica tumultuosa sicuramente grazie all’export di materie prime essenziali per gli acquirenti, ma soprattutto grazie ad una Realpolitik che nulla cede all’ideologia imperante in occidente.

Avere un governo dotato di senso pratico è una inestimabile risorsa.

* * * * * * *


Indonesia Sept trade surplus beats estimates on strong commodities.

– Exports +47.6% y/y, vs +51.6% in poll

– Imports +40.3% y/y, vs +50% in poll

– $4.37 bln surplus is bigger than $3.84 bln seen in poll

– Trade surplus reaffirms f’cast for cenbank to stand pat on rates

* * *

Jakarta, Oct 15 (Reuters) – Indonesia’s September trade surplus was larger than expected as exports surged on the back of booming commodity prices, government data showed on Friday, cementing hopes for a quick economic recovery.

The resource-rich country booked a September trade surplus of $4.37 billion, data from the country’s statistics bureau showed. That was above the median estimate of $3.84 billion, according to analysts polled earlier by Reuters.

Indonesia recorded an all-time high surplus of $4.74 billion in August. It has posted a trade surplus every month since May 2020.

Analysts said robust exports should cushion the economic impact of Indonesia’s devastating COVID-19 wave in the third quarter.

The trade surplus would also help Southeast Asia’s largest economy narrow its current account deficit, making its financial market less vulnerable to capital outflows and allowing the central bank to keep monetary policy accommodative for longer.

“The surplus is still large because of skyrocketing commodity prices, which is positive for our economy and the (U.S. dollar) liquidity outlook,” said Fakhrul Fulvian, chief economist at Trimegah Sekuritas.

“This means Bank Indonesia will keep interest rates steady next week,” he added, referring to a central bank policy meeting scheduled to take place from Monday to Tuesday.

Bank Indonesia is expected to keep its main policy rates unchanged until the third quarter of 2022, according to a new Reuters poll.

September exports grew 47.64% to $20.60 billion from a year earlier, compared with the poll’s 51.57% growth forecast.

Shipments of coal and copper remained strong, each rising more than 160%, while overseas sales of palm oil products, steel and oil and gas also registered high growth.

September imports rose 40.31% to $16.23 billion, versus the poll’s 50% forecast, with consumer goods imports surging nearly 60%.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

G20. Nessun paese ha adempiuto gli Accordi di Parigi del 2015.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-22.

Carbone. Consumi degli stati 001

«lunga promessa con l’attender corto / ti farà trïunfar ne l’alto seggio»

«achieving net zero will be virtually impossible».

Quando l’America e l’enclave liberal socialista europea sembravano essere ancora egemoni, tutti gli stati sottoscrissero gli Accordi i Parigi. Chi non avesse sottoscritto il ‘clima’ sarebbe stato sanzionato.

Ma le parole sono parole: solo i dati fattuali contano.

Gli obiettivi posti erano ‘virtually impossible’, ed hanno fatto la fine di tutti i sogni sradicati dalla realtà: nessuno si sogna di mantenere la parola data.

                         Sources.

Statistical Review of World Energy – British Petroleum

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

* * * * * * *


«Not a single G20 country is in line with the Paris Agreement on climate»

«None of the world’s major economies — including the entire G20 — have a climate plan that meets their obligations under the 2015 Paris Agreement»

«The watchdog Climate Action Tracker (CAT) analyzed the policies of 36 countries, as well as the 27-nation European Union, and found that all major economies were off track to contain global warming»

«The analysis also included some low-emissions countries, and found that the Gambia was the only nation among all 37 to be “1.5 compatible.”»

«Under the 2015 Paris accord, more than 190 countries agreed to limit the increase in global temperatures»

«The report comes less than two months ahead of UN-brokered international climate talks in Glasgow, known as COP26»

«CAT reported that progress had stalled after dozens of world leaders made ambitious new pledges to slash greenhouse gas emissions during the US President Joe Biden’s Climate Leaders’ Summit in April»

«The overall climate plans of the US, European Union and Japan are not sufficient»

«CAT had previously categorized the US as “critically insufficient” — the worst category»

«All signatories were supposed to update their NDCs by July 31 this year under the Paris accord. There are still more than 70 countries that have yet to submit an update»

«India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are among countries that missed the July 31 deadline. China, the world’s biggest polluter, announced a new target, but hasn’t formally submitted it to the UN»

«Of particular concern are Australia, Brazil, Indonesia Mexico, New Zealand, Russia, Singapore, Switzerland and Vietnam: they have failed to lift ambition at all, submitting the same or even less ambitious 2030 targets than those they put forward in 2015»

«The continued use of coal remains a significant policy problem, the report found, with China and India retaining huge coal pipelines. Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan and South Korea are also planning to go ahead with coal use in the future»

«The Australian government, which has said it will keep mining coal past 2030, is also investing money into new gas exploration and infrastructure»

«Cutting emissions is a non-negotiable part of the Paris Accord»

«achieving net zero will be “virtually impossible»

* * * * * * *

I dati riportati in Tabella dovrebbero essere eloquenti.

La relazione fornita dalla Climate Action Tracker dovrebbe essere altrettanto eloquente. Ma se gli stati se ne fanno un baffo degli Accordi di Parigi, i liberal socialisti se ne fanno uno  torciglione di quello che facciano gli stati, e la manfrina prosegue.

Possiamo quindi concludere come il ‘clima’ sia una pura e semplice, ma costosissima, buffonata.

*


Not a single G20 country is in line with the Paris Agreement on climate, analysis shows.

None of the world’s major economies — including the entire G20 — have a climate plan that meets their obligations under the 2015 Paris Agreement, according to an analysis published Wednesday, despite scientists’ warning that deep cuts to greenhouse gas emissions are needed now.

The watchdog Climate Action Tracker (CAT) analyzed the policies of 36 countries, as well as the 27-nation European Union, and found that all major economies were off track to contain global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The countries together make up 80% of the world’s emissions.

The analysis also included some low-emissions countries, and found that the Gambia was the only nation among all 37 to be “1.5 compatible.” As the study only included a few smaller emitters, it’s possible there are other developing countries in the world on track as well.

Under the 2015 Paris accord, more than 190 countries agreed to limit the increase in global temperatures to well below 2 degrees above pre-industrial temperatures — ideally to 1.5 degrees. Scientists have said 2 degrees is a critical threshold for some of the Earth’s ecosystems, and is one that would also trigger more catastrophic extreme weather events.

The report comes less than two months ahead of UN-brokered international climate talks in Glasgow, known as COP26. The event’s president, British MP Alok Sharma, has said he hopes to “keep 1.5 alive” as a global warming limit.

CAT reported that progress had stalled after dozens of world leaders made ambitious new pledges to slash greenhouse gas emissions during the US President Joe Biden’s Climate Leaders’ Summit in April.

“In May, after the Climate Leaders’ Summit and the Petersburg dialogue, we reported that there appeared to be good momentum with new climate action commitments,” said Niklas Höhne, a founding partner of the NewClimate Institute, a CAT partner.

“But since then, there has been little to no improvement: nothing is moving,” he said. “Anyone would think they have all the time in the world, when in fact the opposite is the case.”

Six countries, including the UK, have an overall climate policy that is “nearly sufficient,” according to the report, meaning they are not yet consistent with 1.5-degree alignment but could be with small improvements. The UK’s targets are in line with 1.5 degrees, but its policies in practice don’t meet the benchmark.

The overall climate plans of the US, European Union and Japan are not sufficient to reach the 1.5-degree goal, the analysis found, saying that while their domestic targets are relatively close to where they need to be, their international policies are not.

CAT had previously categorized the US as “critically insufficient” — the worst category — under former President Donald Trump, who formally withdrew the country from the Paris Agreement shortly before the end of his term.

The United States’ domestic emission-cutting target has since been upgraded to “almost sufficient.” However, the US is still insufficient in CAT’s “fair share” target rating, which takes into account the country’s “responsibility and capability.”

Under the Paris agreement, countries submitted their pledges to cut emissions, also known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs. All signatories were supposed to update their NDCs by July 31 this year under the Paris accord. There are still more than 70 countries that have yet to submit an update.

India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are among countries that missed the July 31 deadline. China, the world’s biggest polluter, announced a new target, but hasn’t formally submitted it to the UN.

And many countries submitted an “update” without actually increasing their pledge. Brazil and Mexico submitted the same targets as they did in 2015. Changes to those countries’ baseline assumptions make their pledges weaker than they were before, the analysis showed. Russia, the CAT report said, submitted an update that looks stronger on paper, but doesn’t amount to meaningful change.

“Of particular concern are Australia, Brazil, Indonesia Mexico, New Zealand, Russia, Singapore, Switzerland and Vietnam: they have failed to lift ambition at all, submitting the same or even less ambitious 2030 targets than those they put forward in 2015. These countries need to rethink their choice,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, another CAT partner.

The continued use of coal remains a significant policy problem, the report found, with China and India retaining huge coal pipelines. Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan and South Korea are also planning to go ahead with coal use in the future.

CAT also warned that in many countries’ attempts to wean of coal, which is generally the fossil fuels that causes the most emissions, many countries were looking to use more natural gas, which CAT said was being falsely sold as a “bridging fuel.”

The Australian government, which has said it will keep mining coal past 2030, is also investing money into new gas exploration and infrastructure, and “is of particular concern,” CAT said in its report.

Thailand has plans to ramp up new gas as it phases out coal, while the EU is still planning to commit public funding to new gas infrastructure, and various member states are lobbying hard for the continued use of this fossil fuel.

Hare warned against the development of blue hydrogen, based on natural gas, as an alternative to other fossil fuels.

“Gas is a fossil fuel, and any investment into gas today risks becoming a stranded asset. And while interest in green hydrogen has grown exponentially, there is still a large number of hydrogen projects in the pipeline where it’s produced from gas,” Hare said. “Hydrogen produced from gas still produces carbon, and is inconsistent with reaching net zero.”

                         Net zero by 2050

Cutting emissions is a non-negotiable part of the Paris Accord. Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases trap solar radiation in the atmosphere, just like glass traps heat in a greenhouse. This causes temperatures to rise and drives more extreme weather, ice melt, sea level rise and ocean acidification.

To keep the warming under 1.5 degrees, the world needs to reach net zero by 2050, a landmark UN climate science report published in August showed.

Net zero refers to a state when the amount of greenhouse gas emitted is no greater than the amount removed from the atmosphere.

According to UN Climate Change, just over 130 countries have pledged to cut emissions to net-zero so far. The new analysis by CAT found that even if all of them followed up on their plans, warming would still reach 2 degrees.

If they stick with the policies they have in place, temperatures will likely be 2.4 degrees higher by the end of century.

Temperatures are already around 1.2 degrees higher than they were before humans started burning huge amounts of fossil fuels, so room for error is very limited.

“An increasing number of people around the world are suffering from ever more severe and frequent impacts of climate change, yet government action continues to lag behind what is needed,” said Bill Hare, the CEO of the think tank Climate Analytics and another author of the analysis.

While many governments have committed to net zero, Hare said that without a real action soon, achieving net zero will be “virtually impossible.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Biden. Questa fuga dall’Afganistan fa crollare la credibilità degli Stati Uniti. Persino nei media.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-18.

Pollo allo Spiedo 001

Una cosa è un ritiro graduale che lasci strutture integre ed efficienti alle sue spalle, ed una totalmente differente è una fuga repentina ed incontrollata, quale quelle che si vedono solo dopo débâcle totali.

Adesso persino i media liberal di provata fede si dissociano da quanto ha fatto la Harris-Biden Administration, e lo stanno facendo usando termini aspri e duri. L’articolo riportato è tratto dal The New York Times, uno dei pilastri granitici dei liberal democratici.

* * * * * * *

«Afghanistan’s rapid unraveling is already raising grumblings about American credibility …. and reinforcing the idea that America’s backing for its allies is not unlimited.»

«The Taliban’s lightning advance comes at a moment when many in Europe and Asia had hoped that President Biden would reestablish America’s firm presence in international affairs, especially as China and Russia angle to extend their influence»

«When Biden says ‘America is back ….Yes, America is back home,’” said François Heisbourg»

«the notion that you cannot count on the Americans will strike deeper roots because of Afghanistan»

«we had to prepare for a U.S. no longer willing to assume the burden of unlimited liability alliances»

«That hesitation will now be felt all the more strongly among countries in play in the world, like Taiwan, Ukraine, the Philippines and Indonesia, which can only please China and Russia»

«The sudden withdrawal from Afghanistan after 20 years and so much investment in lives and effort will see allies and potential allies around the world wondering whether they have to decide between democracies and autocracies, and realize some democracies don’t have staying power anymore»

«China’s Foreign Ministry offered a public show of support to the Taliban, holding two days of talks late last month with a delegation that included one of the movement’s founders, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar»

«The military debacle of Afghanistan, coming after the diplomatic debacle of Syria, will make Western nations more inward-looking, cynical and nationalist, …. as they feel surrounded by a world that they don’t control, but keeps intruding»

«Afghanistan was never a particularly vital interest for Europe to begin with. NATO went to war there 20 years ago only to show solidarity with the United States after 9/11»

«But the suddenness of Afghanistan’s collapse is another reminder of what can happen when Europe outsources decisions to Washington»

«Europe’s main worries now are a new flow of Afghan migrants and a new safe haven for terrorism»

«But there is a lot more to be gained for American soft power by getting through the corona crisis and focusing on vaccines for the world, than on putting more effort into whether the Afghan government survives»

«To just cut and run is to endorse a military solution dictated by the Taliban»

«Echoing State Department warnings, he said that “if power is taken by force and an Islamic Emirate re-established, the Taliban would face nonrecognition, isolation, lack of international support.”»

«But Europe has little leverage»

«is a tacit, explicit really, admission of a dismal failure of geostrategy and of statecraft»

«I’m almost ashamed that we’re in this position»

* * * * * * *

In poco meno di sei soli mesi la Harris-Biden Administration non ha saputo generare posti di lavoro, ha lasciato crescere una severa inflazione, ha distrutto la produzione energetica, ed ora si carica dell’onta di una débâcle storica.

Persino e media liberal, quelli rossi come il fuoco di un altoforno, la stanno attaccando apertamente: non ne possono più nemmeno loro.

E tutto questo a vantaggio di Mr Putin e di Mr Xi.

* * * * * * *


Afghanistan’s Unraveling May Strike Another Blow to U.S. Credibility

Allies may understand the desire to give up on a failed project, but the retreat heightens the sense that America’s backing is no longer unbounded.

BRUSSELS — Afghanistan’s rapid unraveling is already raising grumblings about American credibility, compounding the wounds of the Trump years and reinforcing the idea that America’s backing for its allies is not unlimited.

The Taliban’s lightning advance comes at a moment when many in Europe and Asia had hoped that President Biden would reestablish America’s firm presence in international affairs, especially as China and Russia angle to extend their influence. Now, America’s retreat is bound to sow doubts.

“When Biden says ‘America is back,’ many people will say, ‘Yes, America is back home,’” said François Heisbourg, a French defense analyst.

“Few will gang up on the U.S. for finally stopping a failed enterprise,” he said. “Most people would say it should have happened a long time ago.’’ But in the longer term, he added, “the notion that you cannot count on the Americans will strike deeper roots because of Afghanistan.’’

The United States has been pulling back from military engagements abroad since President Obama, he noted, and under President Trump, “we had to prepare for a U.S. no longer willing to assume the burden of unlimited liability alliances.”

That hesitation will now be felt all the more strongly among countries in play in the world, like Taiwan, Ukraine, the Philippines and Indonesia, which can only please China and Russia, analysts suggest.

“What made the U.S. strong, powerful and rich was that from 1918 through 1991 and beyond, everybody knew we could depend on the U.S. to defend and stand up for the free world,” said Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the British Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee.

“The sudden withdrawal from Afghanistan after 20 years and so much investment in lives and effort will see allies and potential allies around the world wondering whether they have to decide between democracies and autocracies, and realize some democracies don’t have staying power anymore,” he added.

In Asia, the American withdrawal and looming collapse of the Afghan government have been viewed with a mixture of resignation and trepidation.

“Most Asians have already factored it in because it’s been a protracted process, not a shock,” said Susan L. Shirk, the head of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California, San Diego.

The country expressing the most concern has been China, which shares a short, remote border with Afghanistan, which under the Taliban served as a haven for Uyghur extremists from Xinjiang, the far western Chinese province.

China, which routinely criticizes the United States for acting as a global belligerent, has warned that a hasty American withdrawal could create instability across the region.

At the same time, China’s Foreign Ministry offered a public show of support to the Taliban, holding two days of talks late last month with a delegation that included one of the movement’s founders, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar.

The issue for America’s allies and others, though, is less “credibility,” a much misused term, than ability to see commitments through to the end. And the world can seem a more anarchic, less comprehensible place, said Jean-Marie Guéhenno, former French and United Nations diplomat now at Columbia University.

“The military debacle of Afghanistan, coming after the diplomatic debacle of Syria, will make Western nations more inward-looking, cynical and nationalist,” he said, “as they feel surrounded by a world that they don’t control, but keeps intruding.’’

Still, Mr. Guéhenno said, Western democracies “must not adopt a doctrine of indifference to the plight of other people.’’

Afghanistan was never a particularly vital interest for Europe to begin with. NATO went to war there 20 years ago only to show solidarity with the United States after 9/11.

But the suddenness of Afghanistan’s collapse is another reminder of what can happen when Europe outsources decisions to Washington.

NATO countries let the Americans call the shots in Afghanistan, even if they complained about a lack of consultation. For NATO, the mantra was always “in together, out together.” Once President Biden decided to pull the plug, NATO troops also began leaving at speed; there is little appetite for returning.

Europe’s main worries now are a new flow of Afghan migrants and a new safe haven for terrorism. But for a long time now, European terrorism has had its roots closer to home, in North Africa and the Middle East and in domestic disaffection.

The Biden administration has other problems, and Europeans want support from Washington on more important issues, like climate change, Russia and China, said Robin Niblett, director of Chatham House, the London research institution.

“Biden will take some hit for lack of consultation with allies and piggybacking on a flawed Trump strategy,” Mr. Niblett said. “But there is a lot more to be gained for American soft power by getting through the corona crisis and focusing on vaccines for the world, than on putting more effort into whether the Afghan government survives.”

Allies, especially Britain and Germany, were angry at the way the pullout was announced and saw it as a fait accompli, so there will be some residual damage, Mr. Niblett said.

“But Europe won’t give up on a Biden who believes in allies on the big issues that matter,” he said, adding: “On these Biden is leading in the right direction.’’

Europeans have failed to identify their own interests in Afghanistan, which center on regional stability, energy supplies and migration, said Ulrich Speck, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin. “Europeans ignore geopolitics at their own peril,’’ he said.

For instance, a new wave of migration could destabilize Turkey, which is already hosting nearly 4 million Syrian refugees, Mr. Speck said. That, in turn, he added, could bring new tensions with Greece and the rest of the European Union.

“The Europeans should not play the American role, but at least have consulted with one another about what we could do, even to help Kabul,’’ he said.

Carl Bildt, the former Swedish prime minister, went further, urging the U.S. and Europe to reconsider the wholesale withdrawal.

“I believe the U.S., E.U. and allies should commit to keeping a security force in Kabul until the Taliban agrees to a cease-fire and a political solution,” he said in a Twitter post. “To just cut and run is to endorse a military solution dictated by the Taliban.”

But there appear to be few volunteers at this stage.

The European Union’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell Fontelles, issued a statement Thursday night calling on the Taliban to immediately resume talks with the Afghan government in Qatar and to respect human rights. Echoing State Department warnings, he said that “if power is taken by force and an Islamic Emirate re-established, the Taliban would face nonrecognition, isolation, lack of international support.”

But Europe has little leverage. There are obvious worries about how long the Afghan government will last, what will happen to women, girls, judges and the media under a renewed Taliban rule, and about a new wave of Afghan refugees.

Earlier this week, ministers from six countries — Germany, Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands, Greece and Denmark — called for continuing deportations of Afghans whose asylum claims have been rejected.

But given the speed of the collapse, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark and France have, for now, at least, stopped sending Afghans who do not qualify as refugees back to Afghanistan.

Few expect a repeat of the 2015 migration crisis, when more than a million people sought asylum and the resulting chaos boosted far-right and populist politics. But a large new flow from Afghanistan is likely to feed domestic anxieties, especially in Germany, which has elections next month.

Though the numbers are down, in 2020 Afghans were the second-largest country of origin for asylum seekers arriving in the bloc, with some 50,000 applying, the European Asylum Support Office says. Fully 59 percent of applications from Afghans were accepted.

Some 1,200 Afghans have been returned so far this year, and only 200 of them did not return voluntarily, European officials told reporters on Tuesday. But they said that in the last few months, at least 400,000 Afghans have become internally displaced, a number likely to rise considerably.

In Britain, which has a long history with Afghanistan and has had the second largest number of casualties after the United States, there is more chagrin and even anger.

Lord David Richards, chief of defense from 2010 to 2013, criticized his government for moving so quickly to evacuate Britons. He told BBC Newsnight that the evacuation “is a tacit, explicit really, admission of a dismal failure of geostrategy and of statecraft.”

He said he had hoped to hear “an explanation for why we’re in this position, and then, an explanation on how they are going to avert this disaster.” Instead, he said, there was just “an admission of failure and a desire to pull people out.”

He added: “I’m almost ashamed that we’re in this position.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Materie Prime

Acciaio. Ferro estrattivo +40.38% ed acciaio +29.34%, anno su anno. Inflazione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-23.

2021-07-20__ Steel 001

«Shanghai steel futures recovered to above 5,400 yuan a tonne, the highest since May 18th after latest data showed China’s crude steel output rose by 11.8% from a year earlier in the first half of the year. China pledged to limit crude steel output in 2021 at no higher than the 1.065 billion tonnes it made last year but at the half-way stage of the year, the country has already produced 563.33 million tonnes of the metal. Considering only June, production went up 1.5% year-on-year but declined 5.6% from a record level in May as government environmental controls ahead of the Communist Party’s centenary celebrations in July constrained production. The steel market has been under pressure due to China’s efforts to limit soaring commodity prices after cost of steel rallied to an all-time high of 5,975 yuan per tonne on May 11th.

Steel Rebar is mostly traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and London Metal Exchange. The standard future contract is 10 tons. Steel is one of the world’s most important materials used in construction, cars and all sorts of machines and appliances. By far the biggest producer of crude steel is China, followed by European Union, Japan, United States, India, Russia and South Korea. The steel prices displayed in Trading Economics are based on over-the-counter (OTC) and contract for difference (CFD) financial instruments.» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

«Roaring industrial demand is propelling those rallies, with plants straining to boost supply after lying dormant during the pandemic.»

«On top of that, powerhouses China and Russia are trying to limit exports to help other industries at home»

«That optimism is a far cry from the past decade, when Western makers closed plants and shed workers as low demand had their mills operating below capacity»

«Last year alone, 72 blast furnaces were idled, according to UBS Group AG»

«→→ This year, U.S. President Joe Biden wants to spend on infrastructure, and the European Union wants to spend on reaching net-zero emissions ←←»

«The West’s top steelmaker ArcelorMittal is set for blockbuster earning»

«We could see a turnaround story there because those economies just need their steel»

«Developments in China are key, given it produces more than half of the world’s steel, mostly with coal-fired blast furnaces»

«Still, other Asian nations are looking to fill any potential gaps in supply»

«Biden is determined to make new roads, rail and housing the hallmark of his tenure, while the EU is emphasizing clean energy as part of the coronavirus recovery package and Green Deal»

«And even as demand rises, Western producers aren’t keen on expanding»

«Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., the second largest U.S. steelmaker, is set to tear down its Ashland mill in Kentucky, as well as a blast furnace at Indiana Harbor West»

«If anything, more support is on the way. The EU eventually will impose duties on imported steel as part of its Green Deal, and those will fall most heavily on carbon-intensive producers such as Russia»

«India is set to boost capacity, with top producer JSW Group saying it will reach its goal of more than doubling capacity to 45 million tons before 2030»

«Southeast Asia, including Malaysia and Indonesia, plans to add another 60 million tons by the end of this decade»

«We need bricks, we need cement, we need steel»

* * * * * * *

Messi i dazi sull’acciaio inossidabile da Cina, Indonesia e Taiwan.

Cina. Innalzati i dazi sui tubi di acciaio EU ed USA.

Acciaio. Primo Trimestre. Mondo -1.4%, Italia -40.2%.

China iron ore surges over 50% in 2020, up for second straight year.

Cina. Acciaio +54%, +23% nel quarto trimestre. Unione Europea -30%.

USA. Acciaio. Prezzi schizzati a 1,350 Usd per tonnellata, +33% in un mese.

Thyssenkrupp-Manager besorgt “Wir haben einen Stahlengpass in Europa”

Unione Europea. Mancano 20 milioni di tonnellate di acciaio in un anno.

* * * * * * *

In un anno il prezzo medio del ferro estrattivo è salito del 40.38% e quello dell’acciaio del 29.34%.

La produzione si è spostata nei paesi che non hanno preclusioni ideologiche: Cina, Russia, India, Malaysia, Indonesia.

Ed il risultato finale è che l’occidente soffre di una severa carenza di acciaio, pur pagandolo a caro prezzo.

Non esiste produzione industriale senza acciaio. Ma non è detto che i produttori vogliano venderlo, specie poi a quanti vorrebbero condannarli perché non si sottomettono alla loro ideologia.

Di conseguenza, ed è un ben triste ritornello di questi tempi, salgono i costi di produzione industriale e, quindi, i prezzi al dettaglio.

Tutto concorre ad alimentare un processo inflattivo, di fronte al quale le banche centrali possono fare poco o nulla.

Adesso, il debito junk rende meno della inflazione.

La conclusione è purtroppo molto semplice.

*


Record Steel Prices Inject Life Into Long-Suffering Industry

There’s rarely been a better time to be in the steel business.

Prices have boomed worldwide this year, smashing record after record. Roaring industrial demand is propelling those rallies, with plants straining to boost supply after lying dormant during the pandemic. On top of that, powerhouses China and Russia are trying to limit exports to help other industries at home.

“If you’d asked me six months ago what was my most positive vision for the first half of 2021, I don’t think I would’ve even come close to the reality,” Carlo Beltrame, who manages Romania and France for AFV Beltrame, said in a phone interview. The closely-held company plans to build a 250 million-euro ($295 million) mill in Romania with the capacity to produce about 600,000 tons a year.

That optimism is a far cry from the past decade, when Western makers closed plants and shed workers as low demand had their mills operating below capacity. Last year alone, 72 blast furnaces were idled, according to UBS Group AG.

This year, U.S. President Joe Biden wants to spend on infrastructure, and the European Union wants to spend on reaching net-zero emissions. Manufacturers such as Nucor Corp., U.S. Steel Corp. and SSAB AB are among those set to become profit machines. ArcelorMittal SA, the world’s biggest outside of China, will earn more than McDonald’s Corp. or PepsiCo Inc., according to analysts’ estimates.

                         Profit Machine

The West’s top steelmaker ArcelorMittal is set for blockbuster earnings

Few expect these good times to last through 2022. Keybanc Capital Markets and Bank of America Corp. believe the backlogs driving a surge in U.S. steel prices will start clearing this year. But some analysts predict the current rally may herald better times in the long run, with prices eventually settling at more sustainable levels than before.

“The steel industries outside of China will potentially enter a renaissance period,” said Tom Price, head of commodities strategy at Liberum Capital Ltd. in London. “We could see a turnaround story there because those economies just need their steel.”

Developments in China are key, given it produces more than half of the world’s steel, mostly with coal-fired blast furnaces. The government has signaled it no longer wants to bear the huge environmental burden that entails, so it’s seeking to curb production through measures such as firming up guidance on capacity swaps and removing export tax rebates.

“Restrictions almost certainly will come into place,” said Tomas Gutierrez, Asia editor and head of data for Kallanish Commodities Ltd. “Steelmakers overseas can sleep a little easier.”

Achieving the government’s goal will be a challenge given China’s strong output at the start of the year, said Lu Ting, senior analyst at researcher Shanghai Metals Market. Still, other Asian nations are looking to fill any potential gaps in supply.

Also providing cause for optimism is the renewed focus on stimulus and infrastructure in the U.S. and Europe. Biden is determined to make new roads, rail and housing the hallmark of his tenure, while the EU is emphasizing clean energy as part of the coronavirus recovery package and Green Deal.

That requires steel, and lots of it. Biden’s proposed infrastructure plan would increase annual demand by about 5 million tons for the first five years, London-based consultancy CRU Group estimated. A bipartisan package would spend $579 billion if approved.

Yet only 4.6 million annual tons of planned capacity are expected to come online in the U.S. by the end of 2022, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Andrew Cosgrove said.

And even as demand rises, Western producers aren’t keen on expanding. U.S. Steel Chief Executive Officer David Burritt told shareholders in April the company had no plans to restart two blast furnaces that were shut down last year.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., the second largest U.S. steelmaker, is set to tear down its Ashland mill in Kentucky, as well as a blast furnace at Indiana Harbor West. CEO Lourenco Goncalves said in April those will never return to production as his focus is paying down debt.

European producers are almost as skittish about investing in new capacity after spending the past decade painfully cutting down. ArcelorMittal said during earnings calls that its priority is shareholder returns.

In part, that’s due to fears that protectionist measures governments implemented to support their ailing steel companies won’t last forever.

But there’s no signs of change on that front, even with sky-high prices. Biden still hasn’t repealed tariffs on foreign steel imposed by former President Donald Trump, while the EU last month opted to extend its safeguard measures for another three years.

If anything, more support is on the way. The EU eventually will impose duties on imported steel as part of its Green Deal, and those will fall most heavily on carbon-intensive producers such as Russia.

Other nations also could fill the gap created by China’s restrictive measures. India is set to boost capacity, with top producer JSW Group saying it will reach its goal of more than doubling capacity to 45 million tons before 2030. Southeast Asia, including Malaysia and Indonesia, plans to add another 60 million tons by the end of this decade, according to consultant Wood Mackenzie.

AFV Beltrame could start building its rebar and wire rod factory in Romania as early as this year. The plant will generate the lowest emissions in a steel production unit in the world, the company says.

“I’m trusting that this super cycle will last for some more months,” Carlo Beltrame said. “We need bricks, we need cement, we need steel. And we as entrepreneurs have to take the challenge of transforming this industry.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Problemia Energetici

Carbone. Dai 46.9$ per tonnellata a settembre agli attuali 148.6$.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-20.

2021-07-20__ Coal 001

«Coal futures surged to almost $150 a tonne in July»

«Coal is the major fuel used for generating electricity worldwide»

«The biggest producer and consumer of coal is China»

«China’s biggest industrial provinces has pushed the electricity consumption to unprecedented levels»

«Other big producers include: United States, India, Australia, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa, Germany and Poland»

«The biggest exporters of coal are: Indonesia, Australia, Russia, United States, Colombia, South Africa and Kazakhstan»

«The coal prices have risen almost 40% since the beginning of May as warmer weather boosted demand in Japan, South Korea, and the United States, and production declined in Indonesia and Australia due to flooding»

* * * * * * *

Checché ne pensino e ne dicano i liberal socialisti, al momento attuale a livello mondiale il carbone è la principale fonte energetica con la quale genere corrente elettrica.

In un anno i prezzi del carbone sono quadruplicati, ripercuotendosi pesantemente sui costi di produzione della corrente elettrica. Ma questi maggiori costi si riverberano su quelli della produzione e, quindi, sui costi al consumo.

In poche parole, i rincari del costo del carbone sono significativa concausa dell’incremento della inflazione.

*


«Coal.

Coal futures surged to almost $150 a tonne in July, the highest level in a decade as a heat wave in Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Guangdong, China’s biggest industrial provinces has pushed the electricity consumption to unprecedented levels. Meanwhile, local supply remains limited as drought knocked hydropower generation in Yunnan province, output restrictions remain in place in Shanxi production hubs amid tighter safety inspections and environmental curbs, and as a trade spat with Australia has crimped imports. The coal prices have risen almost 40% since the beginning of May as warmer weather boosted demand in Japan, South Korea, and the United States, and production declined in Indonesia and Australia due to flooding.

Coal futures are available for trading in the Intercontinental Exchange and on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The standard GC Newcastle contact listed on ICE weights 1,000 metric tonnes. Coal is the major fuel used for generating electricity worldwide. The biggest producer and consumer of coal is China. Other big producers include: United States, India, Australia, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa, Germany and Poland. The biggest exporters of coal are: Indonesia, Australia, Russia, United States, Colombia, South Africa and Kazakhstan. Coal prices displayed in Trading Economics are based on over-the-counter (OTC) and contract for difference (CFD) financial instruments. Our coal prices are intended to provide you with a reference only, rather than as a basis for making trading decisions. Trading Economics does not verify any data and disclaims any obligation to do so.» [Fonte]

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Geopolitica Asiatica, Materie Prime, Problemia Energetici

Indonesia. Carbone. Dice di volerlo dismettere e costruisce nuove centrali termiche.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-08.

2021-07-08__ Indonesia Coal 001

Una buona parola amicale costa nulla, poi, si vedrà.

L’enclave liberal socialista occidentale ha dichiarato guerra al carbone e vorrebbe che tutto il mondo lo seguisse.

L’Indonesia a  parole va dicendo che entro il 2050 sarà totalmente green, ma per l’intanto costruisce numerose centrali a carbone per incrementare la propria produzione di corrente elettrica.

L’importante nella vita è essere persone pratiche.

* * * * * * *

«The electricity generation capacity in Indonesia reached about 69.6 gigawatts in 2019»

«this capacity would not be sufficient for long and additional capacities must be created quickly»

«electricity consumption will increase from the current 270 terawatt hours to over 500 terawatt hours by 2027»

«Indonesia had been relying largely on coal and gas to meet its electricity demands»

«Both raw materials are available in great quantities, are dispatchable, and the corresponding power plants can be built cheaply»

«In 2020, coal mines were obliged to sell 25 percent of the production volume on the domestic market»

«the state-owned electricity supplier PLN received a maximum price of 70 U.S. dollars per ton of coal purchased»

«the minimum target of 550 million metric tons has been met and the demand for coal is expected to rise again due to a cold winter in China and the Chinese ban on Australian coal»

«At the same time, it’s building 21 GW of new coal plants that will have an operating life until 2065»

* * *

«Indonesia set its coal benchmark price higher in July at $115.35 per tonne»

«The price is 14.97% higher than June’s benchmark price»

«Indonesia’s state-owned utility says it will start shutting down coal-fired power plants and phase them all out by 2055»

«At the same time, it’s building 21 GW of new coal plants that will have an operating life until 2065»

«Indonesia says it will begin retiring coal-fired power plants for good — while still continuing to build more than a hundred new ones»

* * * * * * *


Indonesia sets coal benchmark price at highest in a decade

Jakarta, July 5 (Reuters) – Indonesia set its coal benchmark price higher in July at $115.35 per tonne, an official document published by its energy and minerals ministry showed on Monday.

The price is 14.97% higher than June’s benchmark price and the highest since the $117.6 per tonne in May 2011, Refinitiv data showed.

The document did not show what accounted for the price jump. An energy ministry spokesman told Reuters that a statement will be issued later on Monday.

*

Indonesia to retire coal-fired power plants while also adding more

«Summary.

– Indonesia’s state-owned utility says it will start shutting down coal-fired power plants and phase them all out by 2055, amounting to 50 gigawatts of capacity.

– At the same time, it’s building 21 GW of new coal plants that will have an operating life until 2065 — a contradiction that activists say undermines the coal phase-out plan.

– The mixed message is the latest from a government that still doesn’t have a unified policy on a clean energy transition, and which continues to lavish generous subsidies and incentives on coal miners and power plant operators.

– Energy policy experts say the president needs to publicly weigh in on the issue, including declaring a deadline for Indonesia to achieve net-zero carbon emissions. ….

Indonesia says it will begin retiring coal-fired power plants for good — while still continuing to build more than a hundred new ones, in the latest mixed message from one of the last coal-friendly countries in the world»

* * *

Coal power industry in Indonesia – statistics & facts

The electricity generation capacity in Indonesia reached about 69.6 gigawatts in 2019. For a dynamic, emerging country, this capacity would not be sufficient for long and additional capacities must be created quickly. According to forecasts by the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, electricity consumption will increase from the current 270 terawatt hours to over 500 terawatt hours by 2027.

                         Indonesia’s focus on natural resources.

Indonesia had been relying largely on coal and gas to meet its electricity demands. Both raw materials are available in great quantities, are dispatchable, and the corresponding power plants can be built cheaply. Furthermore, coal in particular can be used to promote Indonesia’s export business and support remote areas in their economic development. Coal mining has therefore been a cornerstone of politics and a likely target for government interventions. In 2020, coal mines were obliged to sell 25 percent of the production volume on the domestic market and the state-owned electricity supplier PLN received a maximum price of 70 U.S. dollars per ton of coal purchased.

                         Coal production outlook.

Not surprisingly, coal producers expected a thriving market in Indonesia. However, the coal industry has also been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and it is therefore unlikely that the coal output will have increased further in 2020. And yet, according to the Department of Energy, the minimum target of 550 million metric tons has been met and the demand for coal is expected to rise again due to a cold winter in China and the Chinese ban on Australian coal. A flourishing export market is important as around 70 to 75 percent of Indonesia’s coal production is exported abroad. The main export countries include China, India, Japan and South Korea. In 2018, about one third of the global coal exports was exported from Indonesia, making it the largest coal exporting country in world. However, the Indonesian energy program could turn the industry into an internal market. For that reason, and to achieve independence from the global market, several large Indonesian mining companies have expanded directly into the energy sector in order to become an integrated energy company that uses its own coal.

                         Coal’s impact on the environment.

On the other hand, the production of coal and especially electricity generation from coal does have an impact on the environment. Back in 2016, it was estimated that the emissions of carbon dioxide amounted to 4.6 billion metric tons in Southeast Asia. Taking current developments in Indonesia and other countries into account, not less, but more is to be expected.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali

Indonesia. Maggio21. Import +68.68%, Export +58.76%, anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-17.

2021-06-17__ Indonesia Imports Export 001

                         Indonesia Imports Rise the Most in a Decade

Imports to Indonesia jumped 68.68 percent year-on-year to USD 14.23 billion in May 2021, compared with market estimates of a 65% gain and after a 29.93 percent growth a month earlier. This was the fourth straight month of expansion in inbound shipments and the steepest pace since April 2010, amid strengthening domestic demand following an acceleration in COVID-19 vaccinations and low base effects last year. Purchases of non-oil and gas soared 56.44 percent to USD 12.17 billion; and those of oil and gas imports climbed 213.61 percent to USD 2.06 billion, driven by crude oil (302.92 percent), oil products (288.40 percent), and gas (43.16 percent). Considering the first five months of the year, arrival surged 22.74 percent from the same period of 2020.

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                         Indonesia Exports Rise the Most Since 2010

Exports from Indonesia surged 58.76 percent from a year earlier to USD 16.6 billion in May of 2021, above market consensus of a 57.49 percent jump and after a marginally revised 52.02 percent rise in the prior month. This was the strongest growth in exports since January 2010, amid a further recovery in global demand and rising commodity prices. Sales of non-oil and gas exports soared by 58.30 percent to USD 15.66 billion; while oil and gas exports jumped by 66.99 percent to USD 0.94 billion, amid higher shipments in crude oil. Considering the first five months of the year, exports grew by 30.58 percent from the same period of 2020.

Pubblicato in: Commercio

Indonesia. Export +51.94%, Import +29.93%, anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-23.

2021-05-21__ Indonesia Import Export 001

Statistics Indonesia ha rilasciato i dati relativi l’Export e l’Import per l’aprile 2021.

«The most recent exports are led by Coal Briquettes ($20.3B), Palm Oil ($15.3B), Petroleum Gas ($8.32B), Cars ($4.52B), and Gold ($4.01B). The most common destination for the exports of Indonesia are China ($28.6B), United States ($19.2B), Japan ($16.8B), Singapore ($14.6B), and India ($13.6B).»

2021-05-21__ Indonesia Import Export 002

Pubblicato in: Commercio

Italia. Marzo21. Export +28.1%, Import +35.1%, su base annua. – Istat.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-19.

2021-05-19__ Istat Import Export 001

Istat ha rilasciato il Report Commercio con l’Estero e prezzi all’Import.

*

Nota.

Le percentuali anno su anno sono inusitatamente elevate a seguito del forte calo dei commerci avvenuto lo scorso anno.

* * * * * * *


Marzo 2021. Commercio con l’Estero e prezzi all’Import.

– A marzo 2021 si stima una crescita congiunturale per i flussi commerciali con l’estero, più intensa per le importazioni (+6,0%) che per le esportazioni (+3,2%). L’incremento su base mensile dell’export è dovuto all’aumento delle vendite sia verso l’area Ue (+3,7%) sia verso i mercati extra Ue (+2,6%).

– Nel primo trimestre del 2021, rispetto al precedente, l’export aumenta del 2,6%, l’import del 5,0%.

– A marzo 2021, l’export sale su base annua del 28,1%; la crescita è più sostenuta verso l’area Ue (+32,6%) rispetto all’area extra Ue (+23,2%). L’import registra un aumento tendenziale più marcato (+35,1%), con incrementi di analoga entità verso entrambi i principali mercati di sbocco, Ue ed extra Ue.

– Tra i settori che contribuiscono maggiormente all’aumento tendenziale dell’export si segnalano macchinari e apparecchi n.c.a (che crescono del +32,3%), metalli di base e prodotti in metallo, esclusi macchine e impianti (+35,4%), autoveicoli (+80,1%), mezzi di trasporto, autoveicoli esclusi (+43,6%) e articoli di abbigliamento, anche in pelle e in pelliccia (+57,4%). Solo le vendite di articoli farmaceutici, chimico-medicinali e botanici (-9,3%) sono in calo.

– Su base annua, le esportazioni crescono verso tutti i principali paesi partner; i contributi maggiori riguardano le vendite verso Germania (con un aumento del 30,6%), Francia (+39,0%), Spagna (+37,4%), Svizzera (+35,7%) e Paesi Bassi (+51,6%).

– Nel primo trimestre del 2021, la crescita tendenziale dell’export (+4,6%) è dovuta in particolare all’incremento delle vendite di metalli di base e prodotti in metallo, esclusi macchine e impianti (+13,7%), macchinari e apparecchi n.c.a. (+8,5%), autoveicoli (+22,3%) e apparecchi elettrici (+14,9%).

-La stima del saldo commerciale a marzo 2021 è pari a +5.190 milioni di euro (era +5.701 a marzo 2020). Al netto dei prodotti energetici il saldo è pari a +7.984 milioni (era +7.707 a marzo dello scorso anno).

-Nel mese di marzo 2021 i prezzi all’importazione aumentano dell’1,9% su base mensile e del 4,2% su base annua.

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Il commento.

A marzo prosegue la dinamica congiunturale positiva dell’export, sostenuta dal commercio estero con i paesi sia Ue sia extra Ue. Nel primo trimestre dell’anno, rispetto all’ultimo del 2020, l’aumento dell’export è trainato essenzialmente dalle vendite verso l’area Ue. Nel confronto con marzo 2020 – quando anche il commercio con l’estero iniziò a subire gli effetti dell’emergenza sanitaria – la crescita dell’export è molto marcata e diffusa a livello settoriale e verso tutti i principali paesi partner. Le vendite di macchinari e metalli forniscono il contributo più ampio (oltre 9 punti percentuali) al forte incremento tendenziale delle esportazioni. Anche la crescita su base annua dell’import, più marcata di quella dell’export, interessa in modo generalizzato tutti i settori. Per i prezzi all’import, il rialzo congiunturale è dovuto soprattutto alle dinamiche positive di energia e beni intermedi; su base annua, i prezzi tornano a crescere dopo quasi due anni di variazioni tendenziali negative.