Pubblicato in: Materie Prime

Arabia Saudita. Giugno21. Export petrolio +123% anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-29.

2021-08-26__ Arabia 001

«The value of Saudi Arabia’s oil exports in June increased 123% to 61.5 billion riyals ($16.4 billion) from a year earlier»

«non-oil exports rose by around 41%»

«Overall exports increased by nearly 92% in June compared to a year earlier»

«Oil exports accounted for 72% of total exports in June»

«the country’s gross domestic product in the second quarter grew for the first time since the coronavirus crisis»

«China remained Saudi Arabia’s main trading partner in June, with exports there amounting to nearly 20% of total exports»

* * * * * * *

L’Arabia Saudita sta uscendo dal periodo di crisi, che rifletteva la passata turbolenza dei mercati energetici.

*


Saudi Arabia’s June oil exports rise 123% to over $16 bln

Dubai, Aug 24 (Reuters) – The value of Saudi Arabia’s oil exports in June increased 123% to 61.5 billion riyals ($16.4 billion) from a year earlier while non-oil exports rose by around 41%, official data showed on Tuesday.

Overall exports increased by nearly 92% in June compared to a year earlier when international trade was curbed by lockdowns and travel disruptions related to the coronavirus crisis, said the General Authority for Statistics.

Oil exports accounted for 72% of total exports in June, up from 62% in June last year, it said.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, was hit hard last year as oil prices plummeted and measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic hurt its non-oil economy.

But the country’s gross domestic product in the second quarter grew for the first time since the coronavirus crisis, on the back of the easing of restrictions and rebounding oil prices.

China remained Saudi Arabia’s main trading partner in June, with exports there amounting to nearly 20% of total exports.

Imports from Turkey continued to be low, after an informal blockade by Saudi Arabia.

In June they fell to 5.7 million riyals from 21.8 in May, and from 712.4 million riyals in June last year.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Regno Unito

Regno Unito. 2021Q2. Pil -4.4% rispetto al 2019Q4. Investimenti aziendali +9.7%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-14.

2021-08-12__Regno Unito 001

                         In sintesi.

– The level of GDP is now 4.4% below where it was pre-coronavirus pandemic at Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019

* * * * * * *

Diamo con piacere atto allo Office for National Statistics di aver riportato il pil sull’ultimo trimestre del 2019, ultima rilevazione prima del lockdown.

Il sistema economico inglese sta dando vivi segni di ripresa: in particolare gli investimenti delle aziende hanno ripreso a buon ritmo, +9.7%, così come la produzione manifatturiera, +13.9%.

* * * * * * *


Lo Office for National Statistics ha Rilasciato il Report GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: April to June 2021

First quarterly estimate of gross domestic product (GDP). Contains current and constant price data on the value of goods and services to indicate the economic performance of the UK.

                         Main Points

– UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 4.8% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2021 following the easing of coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions.

– There have been increases in services, production and construction output over the quarter.

– In output terms, the largest contributors to this increase were from wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and food service activities, and education.

– The level of GDP is now 4.4% below where it was pre-coronavirus pandemic at Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019.

– In Quarter 2 2021, there were increases in nearly all main components of expenditure apart from “trade”, with the largest contribution from household consumption, which contributed 4.1 percentage points to the 4.8% increase following the easing of coronavirus restrictions in Quarter 2 2021 compared with Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2021.

                         Headline GDP figures.

UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 4.8% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2021, following the easing of coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions (Figure 1). Monthly estimates published today (12 August 2021) show that GDP increased across all three months at 2.2% in April, 0.6% in May and 1.0% in June 2021.

The level of GDP in the UK is now 4.4% below where it was prior to the coronavirus pandemic at the end of 2019.

*

Several countries have published first estimates of nominal and real GDP for the second quarter of 2021, including France, Germany, Spain and the United States. Italy and Canada have also published first estimates of real GDP for Quarter 2 2021, but not nominal GDP and therefore have not been included in Figure 2. The UK experienced the largest increase in real GDP of these countries in Quarter 2 2021, in part reflecting the timing of the tightening and easing of public health restrictions in the first half of this year.

Of the other countries, Italy and Spain had the next largest volume increases in Quarter 2 2021. However, these two countries are the furthest away from their pre-pandemic levels of GDP, with Spain 6.8% and Italy 3.8% below their Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019 levels. The United States is the only economy to have recovered to above pre-pandemic levels (0.8%).

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio

Cina. Luglio21. Import +28.1%, Export +19.3%, Saldo 56.588 miliardi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela

2021-08-08.

2021-08-09__ Cina Export 001

                         In sintesi.

«high-tech manufacturing went up by 22.6 percent year on year»

«In the first five months, the total profits made by industrial enterprises …. was 3,424.7 billion yuan, up by 83.4 percent year on year»

«In the first half year, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 18,065.1 billion yuan, an increase of 27.1 percent year on year»

«In the first half year, the exports of mechanical and electrical products accounted for 59.2 percent of the total value of exports»

«The imports and exports by private enterprises accounted for 47.8 percent of the total value of imports and exports»

«The total value of exports was 1,812.2 billion yuan, up by 20.2 percent year on year»

* * * * * *

Il National Bureau of Statistics of China ha rilasciato il Report

National Economy in the First Half Year Witnessed the Steady and Sound Growth Momentum Consolidated.

In the first half year, faced with complicated and changing environment both at home and abroad, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core, all regions and departments strictly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, continued to consolidate and expand the achievements made in the epidemic prevention and control and the economic and social development, and implemented accurate macro policies. China’s economy sustained a steady recovery with the production and demand picking up, employment and prices remaining stable, new driving forces thriving fast, quality and efficiency enhancing, market expectations improving and major macro indicators staying within reasonable range. The national economy witnessed the steady and sound growth momentum consolidated.

According to the preliminary estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China in the first half year was 53,216.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7 percent at comparable prices, 5.6 percentage points lower than that of the first quarter; and the average two-year growth was 5.3 percent, 0.3 percentage points faster than that of the first quarter. By quarter, the year-on-year GDP growth for the first quarter was 18.3 percent, with an average two-year growth of 5.0 percent; for the second quarter 7.9 percent, with an average two-year growth of 5.5 percent. By industry, in the first half year, the value added of the primary industry was 2,840.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.8 percent, with an average two-year growth of 4.3 percent; the secondary industry 20,715.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 14.8 percent, with an average two-year growth of 6.1 percent; and the tertiary industry  29,661.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 11.8 percent, with an average two-year growth of 4.9 percent. The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of the second quarter was 1.3 percent.

….

                         Industrial Production Grew Steadily and High-tech Manufacturing Grew Fast.

In the first half year, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 15.9 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 7.0 percent, 0.2 percentage points faster than that of the first quarter; specifically, that of the second quarter went up by 8.9 percent year on year. In June, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 8.3 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 6.5 percent; and the month-on-month growth was 0.56 percent. In terms of sectors, in the first half year, the value added of the mining went up by 6.2 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 2.5 percent; that of the manufacturing up by 17.1 percent, with an average two-year growth of 7.5 percent; and that of the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water up by 13.4 percent, with an average two-year growth of 6.0 percent. The value added of high-tech manufacturing went up by 22.6 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 13.2 percent. In terms of products, the production of new-energy automobiles, industrial robots and integrated circuits increased by 205.0 percent, 69.8 percent, and 48.1 percent year on year respectively, with the average two-year growths all exceeding 30 percent. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added of the state holding enterprises went up by 11.9 percent year on year; that of share-holding enterprises up by 15.8 percent year on year; that of enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan up by 17.0 percent year on year; and that of private enterprises up by 18.3 percent year on year. In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index of China was 50.9 percent, staying above the threshold for sixteen months in a row. The Production and Operation Expectation Index was 57.9 percent.

In the first five months, the total profits made by industrial enterprises above the designated size was 3,424.7 billion yuan, up by 83.4 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 21.7 percent. The profit rate of the business revenue of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 7.11 percent, 2.05 percentage points higher than that of the first five months in 2020.

….

                         Imports and Exports of Goods Grew Fast and Trade Structure Continued to Improve.

In the first half year, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 18,065.1 billion yuan, an increase of 27.1 percent year on year. The total value of exports was 9,849.3 billion yuan, up by 28.1 percent year on year. The total value of imports was 8,215.7 billion yuan, up by 25.9 percent year on year. The trade balance was 1,633.6 billion yuan in surplus. The trade structure continued to improve. In the first half year, the exports of mechanical and electrical products accounted for 59.2 percent of the total value of exports, up by 0.6 percentage points over the same period last year. The imports and exports of general trade accounted for 61.9 percent of the total value of imports and exports, up by 1.7 percentage points over the same period last year. The imports and exports by private enterprises accounted for 47.8 percent of the total value of imports and exports, up by 2.8 percentage points over the same period last year. In June, the total value of imports and exports was 3,291.6 billion yuan, an increase of 22.0 percent year on year. The total value of exports was 1,812.2 billion yuan, up by 20.2 percent year on year. The total value of imports was 1,479.4 billion yuan, up by 24.2 percent year on year.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Stati Uniti

Buffett Indicator 235%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-26.

2021-07-26__ Buffett 001

The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP. Named after Warren Buffett, who called the ratio “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment”. (Buffett has since walked back those comments, hesitating to endorse any single measure as either comprehensive or consistent over time, but this ratio remains credited to his name). To calculate the ratio, we need to get data for both metrics: Total Market Value and GDP.

                         Total Market Value.

The most common measurement of the aggregate value of the US stock market is the Wilshire 5000. This is available directly from Wilshire (links to all data sources below), with monthly data starting in 1971, and daily measures beginning in 1980. The Wilshire index was created such that a 1-point increase in the index corresponds to a $1 billion increase in US market cap. Per Wilshire, that 1:1 ratio has drifted, and as of Dec 2013 a 1-point increase in the index corresponded to a $1.15 billion dollar increase. We adjust the data back to inception (and projected going forward) on a straight-line basis to compensate for this drift. For example, the Sep 2020 Wilshire Index of 35,807 corresponds to a total real market cap value of $42.27T USD.

For data prior to 1970 (where Wilshire data is not available) we use the Z.1 Financial Account – Nonfinancial corporate business; corporate equities; liability, Level, published by the Federal Reserve, which provides a quarterly estimate of total market value back to 1945. In order to integrate the datasets, we index the Z.1 data to match up to the 1970 Wilshire starting point.

Combined, these data make our Composite US Stock Market Value data series, shown below. Our current estimate of composite US stock market value is $53.9T.

                         GDP.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the total production of the US economy. This is measured quarterly by the US Government’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. The GDP is a static measurement of prior economic activity – it does not forecast the future or include any expectation or valuation of future economic activity or economic growth. The GDP is calculated and published quarterly, several months in arrears, such that by the time the data is published it is several months old. In order to provide updated data for the most recent quarter we use the most recent GDPNow estimate published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Based on this, our current estimate of (annualized) GDP is $22.9T. A historical chart of GDP is shown below.

                         The Ratio of the Two.

Given that the stock market value represents expectations of future economic activity, and the GDP is a measure of most recent actual economic activity, the ratio of these two data series represents expected future returns relative to current performance. This is similar in nature to how we think about the PE ratio of a particular stock. It stands to reason that this ratio would remain relatively stable over time, and increase slowly as technology allows for the same labor and capital to be used ever more efficiently.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Cina. 2021Q2. Pil +7.9% anno su anno, +12.7% negli ultimi 12 mesi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-18.

2021-07-16__ Cina Pil 001

Attenzione!

Mentre i pil dei paesi occidentali conteggiano le sovvenzioni statali, regionali e comunali come se fossero state proventi da lavoro, gonfiando così i valori dei prodotti interni lordi, il pil cinese considera solo quanto prodotto realmente con il lavoro diretto.

* * * * * * *

In sintesi.

– The country’s gross domestic product increased 7.9% in the second quarter from a year ago

– Retail sales rose 12.1% in June from a year ago

– Industrial production grew by 8.3%

* * * * * * *


National Bureau of Statistics of China. National Economy in the First Half Year Witnessed the Steady and Sound Growth Momentum Consolidated.

«In the first half year, faced with complicated and changing environment both at home and abroad, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core, all regions and departments strictly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, continued to consolidate and expand the achievements made in the epidemic prevention and control and the economic and social development, and implemented accurate macro policies. China’s economy sustained a steady recovery with the production and demand picking up, employment and prices remaining stable, new driving forces thriving fast, quality and efficiency enhancing, market expectations improving and major macro indicators staying within reasonable range. The national economy witnessed the steady and sound growth momentum consolidated.

According to the preliminary estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China in the first half year was 53,216.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7 percent at comparable prices, 5.6 percentage points lower than that of the first quarter; and the average two-year growth was 5.3 percent, 0.3 percentage points faster than that of the first quarter. By quarter, the year-on-year GDP growth for the first quarter was 18.3 percent, with an average two-year growth of 5.0 percent; for the second quarter 7.9 percent, with an average two-year growth of 5.5 percent. By industry, in the first half year, the value added of the primary industry was 2,840.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.8 percent, with an average two-year growth of 4.3 percent; the secondary industry 20,715.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 14.8 percent, with an average two-year growth of 6.1 percent; and the tertiary industry  29,661.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 11.8 percent, with an average two-year growth of 4.9 percent. The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of the second quarter was 1.3 percent.»

* * * * * * *


China’s GDP grew 7.9% in the second quarter; retail sales beat expectations

– The country’s gross domestic product increased 7.9% in the second quarter from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday. That fell short of Reuters’ estimate of 8.1% growth.

– Retail sales rose 12.1% in June from a year ago, more than the expected 11% level forecast by Reuters.

– Industrial production grew by 8.3%, greater than the 7.8% Reuters estimate.

*

China reported second-quarter GDP growth that came in slightly below expectations, while retail sales and industrial production grew faster than forecast in June.

The country’s gross domestic product increased 7.9% in the second quarter from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday. That fell short of Reuters’ estimate of 8.1% growth for the April to June period.

“Overall, China’s economy looks to be on track for recovery, with the 6% annual growth goal in reach,” Chaoping Zhu, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, said in a note.

“However, downside and structural risks in domestic demand are concerning,” he said, pointing to weak growth in long-term credit and uncertainty over market regulation.

Second-quarter GDP rose 1.3% from the first quarter, faster than the 0.6% pace between the first quarter of this year and fourth quarter of 2020. However, the latest quarterly increase was still slower than the 2.6% pace of the fourth quarter.

“China’s economy sustained a steady recovery,” the statistics bureau said in a release. But the bureau added there were still concerns about the global spread of the pandemic and “unbalanced” recovery domestically.

Retail sales rose 12.1% in June from a year ago, more than the expected 11% level forecast by Reuters. The fastest-growing category was beverages, up 29.1% year-on-year.

Retail sales growth has lagged that of the overall economy, and missed analysts’ expectations for the first two months of the second quarter.

Consumption declined year-on-year in May for four provincial capitals — Wuhan, Guiyang, Shijiazhuang and Yinchuan — according to analysis of public data by Pinpoint Asset Management.

Industrial production grew by 8.3%, greater than the 7.8% Reuters estimate.

In the last three months, Chinese authorities have also announced support for companies affected by the surge in commodity prices.

The urban survey unemployment rate held steady at 5% in June, while unemployment for the younger 16 to 24 age category climbed to 15.4% — the same as June 2020.

On Thursday, a cut to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), or the amount of funds banks must hold in reserve, was set to take effect. Authorities’ initial hint of such a cut surprised investors last week, and signaled concerns of slower growth.

The cut is expected to release about 1 trillion yuan (or $154 billion) into the economy.

Meanwhile, China’s customs agency said earlier this week that exports rose a more-than-expected 32.2% in June.

Exports growth will likely slow in the second half of the year, said Bruce Pang, head of macro and strategy research at China Renaissance. He cited factors such as a high level of growth in the second half of last year and weaker growth in commodity prices.

China’s slower pace of economic recovery “is still clouded with uncertainties and unbalanced growth, as employment, household income, consumption, manufacturing investment, the service sector and private companies have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels,” Pang said.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Buffett Indicator. 27 maggio. Vale il 231 percento.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-31.

2021-05-31__ Buffett 001

                         Theory & Data.

The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP. Named after Warren Buffett, who called the ratio “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment”. (Buffett later walked back those comments, hesitating to endorse any single measure as either comprehensive or consistent over time, but this ratio remains credited to his name). To calculate the ratio, we need to get data for both metrics: Total Market Value and GDP.

                         Total Market Value.

The most common measurement of the aggregate value of the US stock market is the Wilshire 5000. This is available directly from Wilshire (links to all data sources below), with monthly data starting in 1971, and daily measures beginning in 1980. The Wilshire index was created such that a 1-point increase in the index corresponds to a $1 billion increase in US market cap. Since inception that 1:1 ratio has drifted, and per Wilshire, as of Dec 2013 a 1-point increase in the index corresponded to a $1.15 billion dollar increase. We adjust the data back to inception (and projected going forward) on a straight-line basis to compensate for this drift. For example, the Sep 2020 Wilshire Index of 35,807 corresponds to a total real market cap value of $42.27T USD.

For data prior to 1970 (where Wilshire data is not available) we use the Z.1 Financial Account – Nonfinancial corporate business; corporate equities; liability, Level, published by the Federal Reserve, which provides a quarterly estimate of total market value back to 1945. In order to integrate the datasets, we index the Z.1 data to match up to the 1970 Wilshire starting point.

Combined, these data make our Composite US Stock Market Value data series, shown below. Our estimate of current composite US stock market value is $52.0T.

                         GDP.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the total production of the US economy. This is measured quarterly by the US Government’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. The GDP is a static measurement of prior economic activity – it does not forecast the future or include any expectation or valuation of future economic activity or economic growth. The GDP is calculated and published quarterly, several months in arrears, such that by the time the data is published it is several months old. In order to provide updated data for the most recent quarter we use the most recent GDPNow estimate published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The GDP data is all nominal and not inflation adjusted. Our estimate of current (annualized) GDP is $22.6T. A historical chart of GDP is shown below.

                         The Ratio of the Two.

Given that the stock market represents primarily expectations of future economic activity, and the GDP is a measure of most recent economic activity, the ratio of these two data series represents expected future growth relative to current performance. This is similar in nature to how we think about the PE ratio of a particular stock. It stands to reason that this ratio would remain relatively stable over time, and increase slowly over time as technology allows for the same labor and capital to be used ever more efficiently.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Francia. 2021Q1. Pil -4.7%, Consumi -6.8%, Exports -9.9%, comparati sul 2019Q4. – Insee.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-29.

2021-05-29__ Insee 001

«Warning

Given the strong economic fluctuations in recent quarters, evolutions from Q4 2019 may be considered as reflecting the activity better than quarterly fluctuations. Tables have therefore been duplicated to show both quarterly evolutions (Q/Q-1) and evolutions from Q4 2019

*


In sintesi.

– [GDP] It stood 4.7% below its level in Q4 2019, which was the last quarter before the Covid-19 crisis

– Households’ consumption expenditure …. remained well below its pre-crisis level (-6.8% compared to Q4 2019)

– Imports were thus 6.9% below their pre-crisis level

– exports remained further away (-9.9%)

* * * * * * *


Il National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies for Metropolitan France and Overseas France (Insee) ha pubblicato il Report

GDP was almost stable in Q1 2021 (-0.1%), the purchasing power of GDHI fell (-1.0%) but remained above its pre-crisis level

«In Q1 2021, gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms* fell slightly:  -0.1% after -1.5% in Q4 2020. It stood 4.7% below its level in Q4 2019, which was the last quarter before the Covid-19 crisis.

Households’ consumption expenditure was almost stable (+0.1% after -5.6%) and remained well below its pre-crisis level (-6.8% compared to Q4 2019). Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) increased slightly (+0.2% after +1.7%) and was closer to its pre-crisis level (-2.3%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventories contributed by +0.1 points to GDP growth this quarter.

Imports remained relatively dynamic (+1.1% after +2.2%), while exports fell slightly (-0.2% after +4.9%). Imports were thus 6.9% below their pre-crisis level, while exports remained further away (-9.9%). Overall, the external balance contributed negatively to GDP growth: -0.4 points, after +0.7 points. Conversely, changes in inventories made a positive contribution to GDP growth (+0.2 points after +0.6 points).»

*

«Warning

Given the strong economic fluctuations in recent quarters, evolutions from Q4 2019 may be considered as reflecting the activity better than quarterly fluctuations. Tables have therefore been duplicated to show both quarterly evolutions (Q/Q-1) and evolutions from Q4 2019.»

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Buffett Indicator. 13 aprile 21. Adesso vale il 223%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-17.

2021-05-17__ Buffett 001

The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP. Named after Warren Buffett, who called the ratio “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment”. (Buffett later walked back those comments, hesitating to endorse any single measure as either comprehensive or consistent over time, but this ratio remains credited to his name). To calculate the ratio, we need to get data for both metrics: Total Market Value and GDP.

                         Total Market Value

The most common measurement of the aggregate value of the US stock market is the Wilshire 5000. This is available directly from Wilshire (links to all data sources below), with monthly data starting in 1971, and daily measures beginning in 1980. The Wilshire index was created such that a 1-point increase in the index corresponds to a $1 billion increase in US market cap. Since inception that 1:1 ratio has drifted, and per Wilshire, as of Dec 2013 a 1-point increase in the index corresponded to a $1.15 billion dollar increase. We adjust the data back to inception (and projected going forward) on a straight-line basis to compensate for this drift. For example, the Sep 2020 Wilshire Index of 35,807 corresponds to a total real market cap value of $42.27T USD.

For data prior to 1970 (where Wilshire data is not available) we use the Z.1 Financial Account – Nonfinancial corporate business; corporate equities; liability, Level, published by the Federal Reserve, which provides a quarterly estimate of total market value back to 1945. In order to integrate the datasets, we index the Z.1 data to match up to the 1970 Wilshire starting point.

Combined, these data make our Composite US Stock Market Value data series, shown below. Our estimate of current composite US stock market value is $50.5T.

                         GDP.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the total production of the US economy. This is measured quarterly by the US Government’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. The GDP is a static measurement of prior economic activity – it does not forecast the future or include any expectation or valuation of future economic activity or economic growth. The GDP is calculated and published quarterly, several months in arrears, such that by the time the data is published it is several months old. In order to provide updated data for the most recent quarter we use the most recent GDPNow estimate published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The GDP data is all nominal and not inflation adjusted. Our estimate of current (annualized) GDP is $22.6T. A historical chart of GDP is shown below.

                         The Ratio of the Two.

Given that the stock market represents primarily expectations of future economic activity, and the GDP is a measure of most recent economic activity, the ratio of these two data series represents expected future growth relative to current performance. This is similar in nature to how we think about the PE ratio of a particular stock. It stands to reason that this ratio would remain relatively stable over time, and increase slowly over time as technology allows for the same labor and capital to be used ever more efficiently.

Now, let’s look at how the Buffett Indicator has changed in the last ~75 years.

In the chart above, the exponential regression line shows the natural growth rate of the indicator. This shows the upward historical trend that expectations for future growth have risen faster over time than actual economic output. This makes sense, as technological progress drives exponential returns.

                         Detrending.

To make the context of our current position more clear, we can draw the regression line horizontally and remap the data as the percentage above or below that historical average. This is shown below, along with band lines showing +/- a standard deviation. Generally speaking, about 70% of the time the Buffett Indicator should be within +/- 1 standard deviation from the average, and 98% of the time it should be +/- 2 standard deviations from the average.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali

Hong Kong. 2021Q1. Pil +7.8%, Exports +30.6%, anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-07.

2021-05-04__ Hong Kong Pil 001

In sintesi.

– GDP increased by 7.8% in real terms in the first quarter of 2021 over a year earlier

– total exports of goods measured in national accounts terms recorded an increase of 30.6% in real terms over a year earlier

– Imports of goods measured in national accounts terms grew by 23.3% in real terms in the first quarter of 2021

* * * * * *


Census and Statistics Department. Advance estimates on Gross Domestic Product for first quarter of 2021 [3 May 2021]

     The Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) released today (May 3) the advance estimates on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2021.

     According to the advance estimates, GDP increased by 7.8% in real terms in the first quarter of 2021 over a year earlier, as against the decrease of 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2020. The larger increase in GDP in the first quarter of 2021 was mainly attributable to the strong performance of external trade during the quarter and the low base of comparison last year.

     Analysed by major GDP component, private consumption expenditure increased by 1.6% in real terms in the first quarter of 2021 over a year earlier, as against the 6.9% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020.

     Government consumption expenditure measured in national accounts terms grew by 6.7% in real terms in the first quarter of 2021 over a year earlier, after the increase of 6.1% in the fourth quarter of 2020.

     Gross domestic fixed capital formation increased by 4.5% in real terms in the first quarter of 2021 over a year earlier, compared with the increase of 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2020.

     Over the same period, total exports of goods measured in national accounts terms recorded an increase of 30.6% in real terms over a year earlier, much higher than the increase of 5.5% in the fourth quarter of 2020. Imports of goods measured in national accounts terms grew by 23.3% in real terms in the first quarter of 2021, compared with the increase of 6.7% in the fourth quarter of 2020.

     Exports of services fell by 8.7% in real terms in the first quarter of 2021 from a year earlier, compared with the decrease of 28.8% in the fourth quarter of 2020. Imports of services decreased by 14.9% in real terms in the first quarter of 2021, compared with the decrease of 33.9% in the fourth quarter of 2020.

     On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison basis, GDP increased by 5.3% in real terms in the first quarter of 2021 when compared with the fourth quarter of 2020.

                         Commentary.

     A Government spokesman said that the Hong Kong economy saw a visible recovery in the first quarter of 2021, ending the streak of year-on-year contraction in the preceding six quarters. The sharp rebound in the first quarter mainly reflected the very strong growth of exports of goods amid the global economic recovery led by the Mainland and the US. According to the advance estimates, real GDP resumed appreciable year on year growth of 7.8% in the first quarter of 2021, as compared to the 2.8% decline in the preceding quarter. On a seasonally adjusted quarter to quarter comparison, real GDP rose visibly by 5.3% in the first quarter, a marked acceleration from the 0.5% increase in the preceding quarter.   

     The economic recovery was, however, uneven and overall economic activity was still below the pre-recession level, as the pandemic and social distancing requirements continued to weigh on certain economic segments, particularly those involving consumer-facing activities. Moreover, tourism remained in the doldrums. It is thus essential for the community as a whole to spare no effort to keep the epidemic under control and to ensure the success of the COVID-19 vaccination programme. This will pave the way for a broad-based economic recovery and a gradual resumption of international travel.

     Analysing the economic performance in the first quarter of 2021 by major expenditure component, total exports of goods soared alongside the notable revival of global trading and production activities. Exports of services saw a visibly narrowed decline, though inbound tourism remained at a standstill amid stringent travel restrictions. On the domestic front, private consumption expenditure grew only modestly even against an exceptionally low base of comparison, as outbound tourism was severely hindered and the fourth wave of local epidemic disrupted consumption activities especially in the early part of the quarter. The austere labour market conditions also affected consumer sentiment. Meanwhile, overall investment expenditure sustained moderate growth.

     Looking ahead, the global economic recovery led by the Mainland and the US should bode well for Hong Kong’s exports of goods in the near term. Exports of services should likewise improve, though the revival of tourism-related activities will likely be slow in view of the still austere pandemic situation in many places around the world. Other risk factors such as China-US relations and geopolitical tensions also warrant attention. Domestically, if the local epidemic remains well contained, business and consumer confidence, supported by the various government relief measures and the improving global economic conditions, can hopefully see a broader based improvement later this year. The Government will monitor the situation closely.

      The revised figures on GDP and more detailed statistics for the first quarter of 2021, as well as the revised GDP forecast for 2021 will be released on May 14, 2021.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Cina. 2021Q1. Pil +18.3% anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-04-17.

2021-04-16__ Cina Pil 001

Il National Bureau of Statistics of China ha rilasciato il Report:

National Economy Made a Good Start in the First Quarter.

«…. According to preliminary estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter reached 24,931.0 billion yuan, up by 18.3 percent year on year, or up by 0.6 percent over that in the fourth quarter of 2020 and 10.3 percent over that in the first quarter of 2019, with an average two-year growth of 5.0 percent at comparable prices. By industry, the value added of the primary industry was 1,133.2 billion yuan, up by 8.1 percent year on year, or an average two-year growth of 2.3 percent; that of the secondary industry was 9,262.3 billion yuan, up by 24.4 percent year on year, or an average two-year growth of 6.0 percent; and that of the tertiary industry was 14,535.5 billion yuan, up by 15.6 percent year on year, or an average two-year growth of 4.7 percent. On the one hand, the year-on-year GDP growth of 18.3 percent in the first quarter was affected by such incomparable factors as the low base figure of last year and increase of working days due to staff staying put during the Spring Festival. On the other hand, the quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.6 percent in the first quarter with the average two-year growth reaching 5.0 percent demonstrated a steady recovery of the national economy. ….»

* * * * * * *


Germania – PIL (Prodotto Interno Lordo) (PIL) (Annuale) -2.7%

Francia – PIL (Prodotto Interno Lordo) (PIL) -1.4%

Italia – PIL (Prodotto Interno Lordo) (Annuale) -6.6%

Spagna – PIL (Prodotto Interno Lordo) (Annuale) -8.9%

Zona Euro – PIL (Prodotto Interno Lordo) (Annuale) -4.9%

* * * * * * *


China’s economy grows 18.3% in post-Covid comeback.

China’s economy grew a record 18.3% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same quarter last year.

It’s the biggest jump in gross domestic product (GDP) since China started keeping quarterly records in 1992.

However, Friday’s figures are below expectations, with a Reuters poll of economists predicting 19% growth.

They are also heavily skewed, and less indicative of strong growth, as they are compared to last year’s huge economic contraction.

In the first quarter of 2020, China’s economy shrank 6.8% due to nationwide lockdowns at the peak of its Covid-19 outbreak.

“The national economy made a good start,” said China’s National Bureau of Statistics, which released the first quarter data.

But it added: “We must be aware that the Covid-19 epidemic is still spreading globally and the international landscape is complicated with high uncertainties and instabilities.”

Other key figures released by China’s statistics department also point to a continuing rebound, but are also unusually strong because they are compared against extremely weak numbers from last year.

Industrial output for March rose 14.1% over a year ago, while retail sales grew 34.2%.

“Promisingly, the monthly indicators suggest that industrial production, consumption and investment all gained pace in March on a sequential basis, following the weakness in the first two months,” said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at research and consultancy firm Oxford Economics.

However, some analysts predicted a number of sectors will slow as government fiscal and monetary support is reduced.

Yue Su, the Economist Intelligence Unit’s principal economist for China, while the latest figures show that the country’s economic recovery is broad-based, some production and export activity could have been “front-loaded” into the first quarter, suggesting slower growth ahead.

“Trade performance and domestic industrial activities for the rest of year might not be able to maintain such strong momentum, due to lack of measures to stimulate domestic economy,” she said.

The figures nevertheless suggest China has continued to gain economic momentum. Comparing growth for the last quarter with the last quarter of 2020, the Chinese economy grew by a far smaller 0.6%.

Helped by strict virus containment measures and emergency relief for businesses, the economy has recovered steadily since the pandemic hit.

Despite a calamitous start to the year, China was the only major economy to register growth in 2020 albeit its weakest in decades, at 2.3%.

China has set an economic growth target of 6% for 2021, after scrapping its target last year.