Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Materie Prime

Oro. Gold Dec 20 è quotato 2,013.90.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-08-04. h 17:50 ora italiana.

2020-08-04__Gold 001

Diciamolo pure francamente.

2020-08-04__Gold 002

Per comprare oro fisico a questa quotazione è necessario avere una fiducia granitica nel sistema economico e finanziario occidentale.

Le liquidità occidentali stanno cercando disperatamente un porto sicuro ove gettare l’ancora.

Cina. Giugno. Collocati all’estero bond cinesi per 619 miliardi Usd.

Invece di finanziare la ripresa occidentale, la finanza occidentale investe su oro e Cina: foraggia i cinesi, piaccia o meno.

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Gold prices surge midday Tuesday to reach an intraday record above 2,013; Silver jumps nearly 5%.

Gold prices rallied to a fresh intraday record late-morning Thursday, propelled by continued appetite for precious metals amid the COVID-19 pandemic. December gold was up $27.50, or 1.3%, at $2,013.60 an ounce, at last check. Meanwhile, silver prices for September delivery , the most-active contract, were also buoyant, up 4.7% at $25.56 an ounce. The Tuesday jump for gold and silver–a steady climb for both commodities in recent weeks–comes amid a persistent concern about the economic implications of the pandemic that has created uncertainty about the landscape for global markets and economies, with governments and central banks forced to roll out a raft of fiscal and monetary stimulus to limit the damage to business activity.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime

Oro. Giugno. Consegnate sul Comex 170 tonnellate. Un record.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-07-29.

Banche 002

Di questi tempi il mercato dell’oro evidenzia numerosi sommovimenti, con una costante crescita delle quotazioni.

Se sicuramente i mercati valutino la situazione corrente molto incerta e sembrerebbero essere altrettanto dubbiosi sugli interventi statali e sulla resilienza dei sistemi economici, se la fiducia nei confronti delle valute cartacee sia non entusiasmante, così come quella verso i bond statali, sarebbe altrettanto vero considerare quanto la strutturazione del mercato dell’oro sia fragile nei momenti di tensione.

Questo ultimo argomento è lo scopo di questo articolo.

*

«A record 170 tons of physical gold were just delivered on the COMEX»

«Three elements cause physical delivery on the COMEX to have reached record highs this year:

– strong demand for futures in New York,

– a persisting spread between the price of futures in New York versus spot gold in London,

– and arbitrage»

«Physical delivery on the largest gold futures exchange in the world, the COMEX in New York, has reached all time highs this year»

«In June more than 170 tonnes were physically delivered (5.5 million ounces)»

«Usually, delivery is “neglectable.”»

«What has changed?»

«An important change in the global gold market occurred on March 23, 2020. On that day the price of gold futures in New York started drifting higher than the price for spot gold in London»

«first let’s have a look at how the global gold market operated before March 23, when things still ran smoothly»

*

«The Global Gold Market Before March 23, 2020»

«The world’s most dominant gold spot market is the London Bullion Market, where mostly “loco London” gold is traded. Meaning the metal is physically settled within the environs of the M25 London Orbital Motorway»

«The most dominant gold futures market is located in New York, where metal can be physically delivered within a 150-mile radius of the City of New York.»

«Before March 23, the price in London (spot) and the price in New York (near month futures contract) always traded in tight lockstep because of arbitrage. If, for example, the futures price would trade above spot, arbitragers would “buy spot and sell futures” until the spread was closed»

«strong demand in New York would be translated into spot buying in London.»

«When futures traded below spot, arbitragers would “buy futures and sell spot” until the spread was closed.»

*

«The Global Gold Market After March 23, 2020»

«Since March 23 of this year, futures have persistently been trading above spot, though the spread isn’t constant. As a result, arbitragers aren’t assured the futures price in New York will converge with the spot price in London. An arbitrage trade as described above, through a position in both markets, incurs risk.

What arbitragers currently do to profit from the spread is buy spot, sell futures, fly the metal to New York, and physically deliver the gold. This is how the profit is locked in.»

«Now you can see why the persistent spread between New York and London has increased physical delivery on the COMEX through arbitrage»

*

«Physical delivery on the COMEX is elevated because of the current unusual situation in the global gold market. The gold delivered in New York has been imported from spot markets such as Singapore, Switzerland and Australia»

«U.S. imports directly from the U.K. are rare, because in London 400-ounce bars are traded and the main futures contract in New York requires smaller bars for delivery.»

«One reason I can think of why the spreads persist, is because bullion banks are currently less active on the COMEX»

* * * * * * *

Nel 2017 le riserve auree della Russia erano 1,715.84 tonnellate, salite a 2,299.2 tonnellate a fine febbraio 2020.

Nel 2017 le riserve auree della Cina erano 182.56 tonnellate, salite a 1,948.3 tonnellate a fine febbraio 2020.

*


A record 170 tons of physical gold were just delivered on the COMEX: here’s why.

Three elements cause physical delivery on the COMEX to have reached record highs this year: strong demand for futures in New York, a persisting spread between the price of futures in New York versus spot gold in London, and arbitrage.

Physical delivery on the largest gold futures exchange in the world, the COMEX in New York, has reached all time highs this year. In June more than 170 tonnes were physically delivered (5.5 million ounces). Usually, delivery is “neglectable.” What has changed?

An important change in the global gold market occurred on March 23, 2020. On that day the price of gold futures in New York started drifting higher than the price for spot gold in London. Ever since, the spread has persisted, though it continuously widens and narrows. The reason for this disturbance in the market can be read in my previous article “What Caused the New York vs. London Gold Price Spread and Why it Persists.”

To understand the shift in deliveries, first let’s have a look at how the global gold market operated before March 23, when things still ran smoothly.

The Global Gold Market Before March 23, 2020

The world’s most dominant gold spot market is the London Bullion Market, where mostly “loco London” gold is traded. Meaning the metal is physically settled within the environs of the M25 London Orbital Motorway. The most dominant gold futures market is located in New York, where metal can be physically delivered within a 150-mile radius of the City of New York.

Before March 23, the price in London (spot) and the price in New York (near month futures contract) always traded in tight lockstep because of arbitrage. If, for example, the futures price would trade above spot, arbitragers would “buy spot and sell futures” until the spread was closed. Arbitragers would hold their positions—long spot, short futures—until maturity of the futures contract, because at expiry the price of the futures contract was guaranteed to converge with the spot price. In this example we can see that strong demand in New York would be translated into spot buying in London.

Worth noting is that when a futures trader rolled its position into the next month, and his initial futures buying was translated into spot buying in London by an arbitrager, on a systemic level the arbitrager would roll its position as well.

Of course, the opposite happened as well. When futures traded below spot, arbitragers would “buy futures and sell spot” until the spread was closed.

So far, a simplified version of the market before March 23.

The Global Gold Market After March 23, 2020

Since March 23 of this year, futures have persistently been trading above spot, though the spread isn’t constant. As a result, arbitragers aren’t assured the futures price in New York will converge with the spot price in London. An arbitrage trade as described above, through a position in both markets, incurs risk.

What arbitragers currently do to profit from the spread is buy spot, sell futures, fly the metal to New York, and physically deliver the gold. This is how the profit is locked in. If the spread between spot and futures is $40 per ounce, the arbitrager’s profit is $40 minus costs for transport, insurance, storage, etc.

Now you can see why the persistent spread between New York and London has increased physical delivery on the COMEX through arbitrage.

Conclusion

Physical delivery on the COMEX is elevated because of the current unusual situation in the global gold market. The gold delivered in New York has been imported from spot markets such as Singapore, Switzerland and Australia. U.S. imports directly from the U.K. are rare, because in London 400-ounce bars are traded and the main futures contract in New York requires smaller bars for delivery.

You might wonder who takes delivery from arbitragers that make delivery on the COMEX. Possibly, these are arbitragers, too. In the chart below you can see the spread between the “near month futures contract” and the “next near month futures contract.” This spread has also blown out on March 23. Arbitragers can buy the near month, and sell the next near month for a higher price. Subsequently, they take delivery of the near dated contract and make delivery of the further dated contract.

At the time of writing the near month (August) is trading at $1,849.8 dollars, while the next active month (October) trades at $1,860.5 dollars. Arbitragers can buy long August and sell short October to collect $10.7 dollars per ounce.

One reason I can think of why the spreads persist, is because bullion banks are currently less active on the COMEX. Previously, bullion banks—having access to cheap funding—often performed the arbitrage trades.

You might wonder who takes delivery from arbitragers that make delivery on the COMEX. Possibly, these are arbitragers, too. In the chart below you can see the spread between the “near month futures contract” and the “next near month futures contract.” This spread has also blown out on March 23. Arbitragers can buy the near month, and sell the next near month for a higher price. Subsequently, they take delivery of the near dated contract and make delivery of the further dated contract.

At the time of writing the near month (August) is trading at $1,849.8 dollars, while the next active month (October) trades at $1,860.5 dollars. Arbitragers can buy long August and sell short October to collect $10.7 dollars per ounce.

One reason I can think of why the spreads persist, is because bullion banks are currently less active on the COMEX. Previously, bullion banks—having access to cheap funding—often performed the arbitrage trades.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime

Oro. Comex. Gold Aug 20. Quotazione 1,946.60, massimo 1,974.70.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-07-28. h 20:43 ora italiana.

2020-07-28__Gold Comex013

Prosegue la marcia dell’oro. Si noti anche il range di variazione: 1,900.0 – 1,974.70.

I grossisti acquistano le sterline oro a 387 euro l’una, e le vendono al di sopra dei 410 euro l’una, a seconda la tipologia del conio.

Le quotazioni dei compro-oro italiani sono consistentemente minori.

2020-07-28__ Sterline oro 013

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Skyrocketing gold prices are being fueled by lawmakers and this one threat: Goldman Sachs.

Gold’s runaway ascent in recent weeks is being fueled in large part by free-spending lawmakers and the subsequent threat to the U.S. dollar as a store of value, Goldman Sachs strategist said in a new note Tuesday.

“The recent surge in gold prices to new all-time highs has substantially outpaced both the rise in real rates and other US dollar alternatives, like the Euro, Yen and Swiss Franc. We believe this disconnect is being driven by a potential shift in the US Fed towards an inflationary bias against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, elevated US domestic political and social uncertainty, and a growing second wave of Covid-19 related infections. Combined with a record level of debt accumulation by the US government, real concerns around the longevity of the US dollar as a reserve currency have started to emerge,” explained Goldman strategist Jeffrey Currie.

Gold prices have powered higher (despite the stock market’s surge from the March lows) to nearly $2,000 an ounce, an all-time high. Total gold holdings in gold-backed ETFs is at a record, seeing inflows in 18 straight weeks, according to Bloomberg data. The move has spread to gold focused equities such as Freeport McMoran (up 24% in the past six months) and of course the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (up 20% in the last six months).

Goldman’s Currie now expects gold prices to reach $2,300 an ounce within the next 12-months. Currie’s bullish take on the price of gold is consistent with what other experts have told Yahoo Finance.

“Gold is an enormous market, mostly liquid. Concurrent with the next downdraft in equities we’ll see gold smashing through $1,800 an ounce and continuing on its way to more than $2,000 by the end of the year,” Sprott CEO Peter Grosskopf said on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade in late June. Clearly that call was dead on accurate.

Added Grosskopf, “I am a believer in libertarian policies, so I’ve been worried about the central bank’s hand in the economy for a long time. I think gold is a natural hedge to that.”

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Materie Prime

Oro 1,928.00, Argento 24.22. – Bloomberg.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-07-27. h 07:10 italiana.

2020-07-27__Gold 07-10

Il 19 marzo l’oro Gold Aug 20 era quotato 1,477.90, oggi vale 1928.00.

Il 19 marzo l’argento Silver Sep 20 era quotato 11.772, oggi vale 24.22.

2020-07-27__Silver 07-10

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Gold’s Surge Rips Up the Record Book With Test of $2,000 Looming. Bloomberg.

– Weaker dollar, negative U.S. real rates are lifting bullion

– Silver jumps more than 7% to highest since September 2013

*

Spot gold blasted past its longstanding record as the dollar plunged and concerns about the global economy boosted demand for havens. Silver rode on its coattails, jumping to the highest in nearly seven years.

Bullion’s move — which may put it on track to take out $2,000 an ounce — came as a gauge of the dollar fell to the lowest in more than a year amid negative real rates in the U.S. and bets that the Federal Reserve will keep policy accommodative when it meets this week. Unrelenting investor demand has helped fuel price gains, with inflows into gold-backed exchange traded funds this year already topping the record set in 2009.

Spot gold climbed to $1,944.71 an ounce, beating the previous all-time high set in 2011 by more than $20. Futures on the Comex rose to a record of $1,966.50 as a contract roll provided a further boost to its rally.

Investors have turned to gold as the coronavirus pandemic’s hit to global growth underpinned its status as a safe haven. But the metal’s getting support from a long list of factors: geopolitical tensions are rising, real rates have tumbled, the dollar is weaker, and government and central banks worldwide have unleashed vast stimulus measures to try and boost economies.

“Strong gains are inevitable as we enter a period much like the post-GFC environment, where gold prices soared to record levels as a result of copious amounts of Fed money being pumped into the financial system,” with a weak dollar and negative real rates providing further impetus, said Gavin Wendt, senior resource analyst at MineLife Pty. Gold may consolidate before setting its sights on $2,000 and above in coming weeks, he said.

The Message Behind Gold’s Rally: The World Economy Is in Trouble

The current environment has even raised the specter of stagflation, a rare combination of sluggish growth and rising inflation that erodes the value of fixed-income investments. In the U.S., investor expectations for annual inflation over the next decade have moved higher the past four months after plunging in March.

U.S. bond markets have been a key metric to watch in determining the path for gold, with the metal serving as an attractive hedge as yields on Treasuries that strip out the effects of inflation fall below zero.

Gold and bond traders alike will get a steer from the Fed this week, as officials meet July 28-29. Expectations are they’ll keep interest rates near zero, while markets will also be watching for any signals around shifts in strategy.

The meeting may be a platform for a strong message that change is coming, opening up the possibility for more unconventional policies further down the line, according to Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group in Melbourne. “If we think about real yields and what the Fed is doing, it just suggests to me that it’s a matter of time before real yields continue to trend lower and gold goes higher.”

Increasing concerns about the virus pandemic as well as deteriorating relations between the U.S. and China add to gold’s allure, and most analysts are bullish on the metal’s outlook. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the metal could reach $2,000 in the next 12 months, and Citigroup Inc. puts a 30% probability on prices topping that level by the end of this year.

Spot gold traded at $1,931.51 an ounce by 12:25 p.m. in Singapore. Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia’s biggest gold producer, advanced as much as 5.3% in Sydney trading, as Zijin Mining Group Co. Ltd.’s Hong Kong-listed shares rose as much as 7.9%.

Silver followed bullion higher, jumping more than 7% to $24.3993 an ounce, the highest since 2013.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime

Oro. Gold Aug 20 è quotato 1,895.20.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-07-23. h 18:31.

2020-07-23__ Gold 023

Le previsioni degli economisti sono come quelle dei meteorologi. Spiegano perfettamente il clima del giorno precedente e per i giorni futuri ne azzeccano ben poche.

Una previsione non la si nega a nessuno.

L’oro, Gold Aug 20, è quotato 1,895.20.

Il mercato non è esattamente quello che si dice un allegrone ottimista.

*

Gold futures on track for highest settlement in history.

«Gold futures headed higher for a fifth straight session Thursday, on track to score their highest settlement on record, highlighting feverish demand for bullion amid the worst pandemic in over a century.

If gold gets to its 2011 record high, “who is to say it can’t go to $2,000 next?” wrote Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at ThinkMarkets, in a Thursday research note. “Obviously, no one knows if it will get there, but momentum is certainly bullish, and the fundamental backdrop is still supportive.”

Gold for August delivery GC00, 1.40% on Comex rose $30, or 1.6%, at $1,895.10 an ounce after trading as high as $1,897.70. Prices based on the most-active contracts look to top the record settlement of $1,891.90 from August 2011, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The record intraday level for futures prices stands at $1,923.70 an ounce from Sept. 6, 2011.

The surge for gold comes against a backdrop of continued uncertainty about the economic landscape for the U.S. and other countries attempting to deal with the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic.»

*

Gold rallies on Sino-U.S. woes, silver hits seven-year peak.

(Reuters) – Gold soared to a nine-year peak on Wednesday as an escalation in U.S.- China tensions stoked demand for safety, while silver followed bullion’s rally to hit a near seven-year high on hopes for a recovery in industrial demand.

Spot gold hit its highest since September 2011 in early trade at $1,865.35, and by 11:27 a.m. EDT (1527 GMT) rose 1% to $1,859.86 per ounce.

U.S. gold futures were 0.7% higher at $1,856.90 per ounce.

“Gold is accelerating higher and that’s been mainly on the geopolitical tensions with China. There seems to be no end in sight for this escalation … and it’s going to damage sentiment as the world’s largest countries continue to bicker,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at broker OANDA.

The United States ordered China to close its consulate in Houston, while a source said Beijing was considering shutting the U.S. consulate in Wuhan in retaliation.

The tit-for-tat between the two countries is likely to further deteriorate the global economic outlook as it reels under the impact of the pandemic.

Low interest rates and a wave of stimulus to cushion economies against the coronavirus pandemic has propelled prices of bullion, widely used as an insurance against rising uncertainties, 22.6% higher so far this year.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Materie Prime

Oro. La quotazione del Gold Aug 20 ha raggiunto i 1,825.60 Usd.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-07-08.

2020-07-08__Gold 001

«This morning the gold spot price crossed the key $1,800 an ounce level for the first time since 2011. This comes against the backdrop of bullish forecasts. Goldman Sachs expects the metal could reach $2,000 in the next 12 months, and Bank of America sees it touching $3,000 an ounce in 18 months. Its all-time record of $1,921.17 was set in September 2011»

2020-07-08__Gold 002

*

«Gold tops $1,800 and hits highest level since 2011»

«These are strange times on Wall Street. Stocks are surging on optimism about a potential economic rebound»

«Yet investors are still very nervous about the growing threat of a second wave of Covid-19 cases in the United States.»

«The price of the metal is now above $1,800 an ounce — its highest level since September 2011 — and it is creeping toward that record high of more than $1,900. Gold has soared nearly 19% so far in 2020»

«gold often tends to do well in times of financial stress, when fear is prevalent.»

«Mounting anxiety on Wall Street over coronavirus helps explain the surge in gold prices»

«Yet investors have continued to flock to gold — a sign of stress — despite a huge rally in big tech stocks and the broader market — a sign of confidence»

«There’s still a lot of skepticism that belies the fragile recovery»

«Investors also might be betting on an eventual surge in inflation»

«gold prices tend to soar when the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates extremely low, as it is doing now»

«All of this stimulus could eventually weaken the value of the dollar and create higher inflation pressures»

* * * * * * *

I motivi per i quali gli investitori acquistano oro, pur essendo questo arrivato a livelli davvero elevati, sono molteplici e sinergici.

– Il timore di una ripresa della pandemia da coronavirus è grande: si teme un andamento simile a quello della spagnola, che assunse una micidiale virulenza nel corso del secondo picco.

– La ripresa negli Stati Uniti e Cina appena si intravede, ma è ben lungi dall’essersi consolidata.

– Il blocco europeo è in piena recessione ed i macrodati relativi al secondo trimestre sembrerebbero essere una minaccia incombente.

– Ogni giorno che passa aumenta la già forte probabilità che si scateni una grande inflazione: gran quota dei denari messi a disposizione dalle banche centrali più che all’economia reale finiscono nel mercato borsistico, che è cresciuto a dismisura. Paradossalmente, si teme che la ripresa, dirottando il denaro dalla borsa all’economia reale, generi una levitazione dei prezzi fuori controllo.

*


CNN. Gold tops $1,800 and hits highest level since 2011.

These are strange times on Wall Street. Stocks are surging on optimism about a potential economic rebound. Yet investors are still very nervous about the growing threat of a second wave of Covid-19 cases in the United States.

Just look at the rally in gold.

The price of the metal is now above $1,800 an ounce — its highest level since September 2011 — and it is creeping toward that record high of more than $1,900. Gold has soared nearly 19% so far in 2020.

Gold’s continued surge is a bit curious given the comeback in the broader market. The pop in gold prices earlier this year made more sense since gold often tends to do well in times of financial stress, when fear is prevalent.

After an initial dip following the 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, gold rallied as the market melted down later that year and into early 2009, for example.

And gold prices hit their all-time high in 2011 after Standard & Poor’s downgraded the United States’ credit rating, amid market jitters about Europe’s sovereign debt crisis.

Gold as a hedge

Mounting anxiety on Wall Street over coronavirus helps explain the surge in gold prices.

The CNN Business Fear & Greed Index, which measures seven indicators of investor sentiment, is edging back toward “fear” territory after hitting “greed” levels just a month ago.

Yet investors have continued to flock to gold — a sign of stress — despite a huge rally in big tech stocks and the broader market — a sign of confidence.

What’s going on? Some investors may be hedging their bets. There’s still a lot of skepticism that belies the fragile recovery.

Buying gold could be a good hedge against a potential stock market pullback if the rebound in earnings and the economy doesn’t materialize in 2021 as expected.

Investors also might be betting on an eventual surge in inflation, said Gerald Sparrow, chief investment officer for Sparrow Capital Management, in an interview with CNN Business.

Sparrow pointed out that gold prices tend to soar when the Federal Reserve is keeping interest rates extremely low, as it is doing now. The Fed is also trying to boost the economy by getting more money into the system with a variety of loan programs.

All of this stimulus could eventually weaken the value of the dollar and create higher inflation pressures. And that would be very good for gold.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Materie Prime

Oro. Ieri quotava 1586.35.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-02-01.

2020-02-01__Gold__001

Le persone hanno usualmente un rapporto conflittuale con l’oro.

Ben poche persone usano l’oro monetato come scorta strategica, comprandolo lentamente ma sistematicamente nei periodi di basse quotazioni, con una visione di lungo termine.

La maggior parte si rode del fatto che l’investimento in oro non rende interessi, per poi strapparsi i capelli quando le sue quotazioni schizzino verso l’alto a seguito delle tensioni internazionali.

Sta di fatto che ad oggi l’oro quoti 1586 Usd l’oncia, e che il dollaro americano sia forte.

Varrebbe la pena di pensarci un pochino sopra.

2020-02-01__Gold__002

2020-02-01__Gold__003

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Senza categoria

Oro. Una successione di spike e drop. Alle 22:28 quotava 1,524.18.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-08-12.

2019-08-12__Oro__

Dovrebbe essere evidente come si stiano fronteggiando due grandi banche centrali, una rialzista e l’altra ribassista.

Si tenga presente che sotto il periodo dell’Assunzione il mercato abbia volume ridotti rispetto la norma, per cui anche movimenti di modesta entità possono determinare significative variazione della quotazione.