Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti

Buffett Indicator 239%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-20.

2021-09-20__ Buffett Indicator 001

The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP. Named after Warren Buffett, who called the ratio “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment”. (Buffett has since walked back those comments, hesitating to endorse any single measure as either comprehensive or consistent over time, but this ratio remains credited to his name). To calculate the ratio, we need to get data for both metrics: Total Market Value and GDP.

2021-09-20__ Buffett Indicator 002

                         Total Market Value

The most common measurement of the aggregate value of the US stock market is the Wilshire 5000. This is available directly from Wilshire (links to all data sources below), with monthly data starting in 1971, and daily measures beginning in 1980. The Wilshire index was created such that a 1-point increase in the index corresponds to a $1 billion increase in US market cap. Per Wilshire, that 1:1 ratio has drifted, and as of Dec 2013 a 1-point increase in the index corresponded to a $1.15 billion dollar increase. We adjust the data back to inception (and projected going forward) on a straight-line basis to compensate for this drift. For example, the Sep 2020 Wilshire Index of 35,807 corresponds to a total real market cap value of $42.27T USD.

For data prior to 1970 (where Wilshire data is not available) we use the Z.1 Financial Account – Nonfinancial corporate business; corporate equities; liability, Level, published by the Federal Reserve, which provides a quarterly estimate of total market value back to 1945. In order to integrate the datasets, we index the Z.1 data to match up to the 1970 Wilshire starting point.

Combined, these data make our Composite US Stock Market Value data series, shown below. Our current estimate of composite US stock market value is $54.9T.

                         GDP

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the total production of the US economy. This is measured quarterly by the US Government’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. The GDP is a static measurement of prior economic activity – it does not forecast the future or include any expectation or valuation of future economic activity or economic growth. The GDP is calculated and published quarterly, several months in arrears, such that by the time the data is published it is several months old. In order to provide updated data for the most recent quarter we use the most recent GDPNow estimate published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Based on this, our current estimate of (annualized) GDP is $22.9T. A historical chart of GDP is shown below.

                         The Ratio of the Two

Given that the stock market value represents expectations of future economic activity, and the GDP is a measure of most recent actual economic activity, the ratio of these two data series represents expected future returns relative to current performance. This is similar in nature to how we think about the PE ratio of a particular stock. It stands to reason that this ratio would remain relatively stable over time, and increase slowly as technology allows for the same labor and capital to be used ever more efficiently.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Blocco Europeo. 2021Q2. Pil -2.5%, occupati -2.1 milioni, comparati con 2019Q4.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-11.

2021-09-08__ Eurostat Pil 001

Molto correttamente, Eurostat riporta le variazioni percentuali sul trimestre precedente.

Infatti, il 2020Q2 fu particolarmente depresso, per cui il rapporto 2021Q2/2020Q2 risulta essere abnormemente elevato, inaffidabile.

Sempre molto correttamente, Eurostat paragona questi macrodati con quelli del 2019Q4, ultimo trimestre prima della crisi pandemica.

«Based on seasonally adjusted figures, GDP volumes were 2.5% and 2.2% below their highest level of the fourth quarter 2019 for the euro area and EU. For the United States, GDP was 0.8% higher than the level of the fourth quarter 2019»

«employment in persons was 2.1 million in the euro area and 2.0 million in the EU below the level of the fourth quarter of 2019»

* * * * * * *


Eurostat ha rilasciato il Report GDP up by 2.2% and employment up by 0.7% in the euro area. In the EU, GDP up by 2.1% and employment up by 0.7%

                         GDP growth in the euro area and the EU

In the second quarter of 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 2.2% in the euro area and by 2.1% in the EU compared with the previous quarter, according to an estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2021, GDP had declined by 0.3% in the euro area and 0.1% in the EU.  

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 14.3% in the euro area and by 13.8% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, after -1.2% in both zones in the previous quarter.

During the second quarter of 2021, GDP in the United States increased by 1.6% compared with the previous quarter (after +1.5% in the first quarter of 2021). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP increased by 12.2% (after +0.5% in the previous quarter).

                         GDP growth by Member State

Ireland (+6.3%) recorded the sharpest increase of GDP compared to the previous quarter, followed by Portugal (+4.9%), Latvia (+4.4%) and Estonia (+4.3%). Declines were observed in Malta (-0.5%) and Croatia (-0.2%).

                         GDP components and contributions to growth

During the second quarter of 2021, household final consumption expenditure increased by 3.7% in the euro area and by 3.5% in the EU (after -2.1% in the euro area and -1.7% in the EU in the previous quarter). Government final consumption expenditure increased by 1.2% in both zones (after -0.5% both in the previous quarter). Gross fixed capital formation increased by 1.1% in the euro area and by 1.0% in the EU (after -0.2% and +0.3% respectively). Exports increased by 2.2% in the euro area and by 1.8% the EU (after +0.7% in both areas). Imports increased by 2.3% in the euro area and by 2.2% in the EU (after +0.4% and +0.6%).

Household final consumption expenditure had strong positive contributions to GDP growth in both the euro area and the EU (+1.9 and +1.7 percentage points – pp, respectively). The contributions from government final expenditure (+0.3 pp in both zones) and gross fixed capital formation (+0.2 pp in both zones) were also positive. The contribution from the external balance was close to neutral for both zones, while the contribution from changes in inventories was slightly negative for the euro area and neutral for the EU.

                         GDP levels in the euro area and EU

Based on seasonally adjusted figures, GDP volumes were 2.5% and 2.2% below their highest level of the fourth quarter 2019 for the euro area and EU. For the United States, GDP was 0.8% higher than the level of the fourth quarter 2019.

                         Employment growth in the euro area and EU

The number of employed persons increased by 0.7% in both the euro area and in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, compared with the previous quarter. In the first quarter of 2021, employment had decreased by 0.2% in both the euro area and the EU.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment increased by 1.8% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, after -1.8% and -1.6% respectively in the first quarter of 2021.

Hours worked increased by 2.7% in the euro area and by 2.4% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, compared with the previous quarter. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year the increases were 17.0% in the euro area and 14.7% in the EU (see annex table on employment in hours worked).

These data provide a picture of labour input consistent with the output and income measure of national accounts.

                         Employment growth in Member States

In the second quarter of 2021, Latvia (+5.7%), Greece (+2.8%), Denmark and Portugal (both +1.9%) recorded the highest growth of employment in persons compared with the previous quarter. Decreases were observed in Estonia (-1.1%) and Spain (-0.9%).

                         Employment levels in the euro area and EU

Based on seasonally adjusted figures, Eurostat estimates that in the second quarter of 2021, 207.5 million people were employed in the EU, of which 159.0 million were in the euro area.

In relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, employment in persons was 2.1 million in the euro area and 2.0 million in the EU below the level of the fourth quarter of 2019.

                         Evolution of labour productivity in the euro area and EU

The combination of GDP and employment data allows an estimation of labour productivity. The analysis of growth compared to the same quarter of the previous year shows that productivity growth (based on employed persons) fluctuated around 1% for both zones between 2013 and 2018.

In relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, productivity based on persons increased compared to the same quarter of the previous year with 12.2% for the euro area and 11.6% for the EU.

Based on hours worked, productivity compared to the same quarter of the previous year decreased by 1.5% for the euro area and increased by 0.3% for the EU.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Unione Europea

Blocco Europeo. 2021Q2. Pil +2.0% su 2021Q1. In questo caso il rapporto 2021Q2 su 2020Q2 sarebbe fallace.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-18.

2021-08-18__ Eurostat 001

Attenzione!

Correttamente Eurostat titola riportando i rapporti 2021Q2 / 2021Q1.

Infatti il 2020Q2 è stato il peggior semestre con un secco -15%. Di conseguenza, il rapporto 2021Q2 / 2020Q2 è risultato essere abnormemente elevato.

Eurostat non ha pubblicato il riscontro contro l’ultimo semestre prima della crisi economica.

2021-08-18__ Eurostat 002

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Eurostat ha rilasciato il Report GDP up by 2.0% and employment up by 0.5% in the euro area.

GDP up by 2.0% and employment up by 0.5% in the euro area In the EU, GDP up by 1.9% and employment up by 0.6%

                         GDP growth in the euro area and EU.

In the second quarter of 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 2.0% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU, compared with the previous quarter, according to a flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2021, GDP had declined by 0.3% in the euro area and 0.1% in the EU.

During the second quarter of 2021, GDP in the United States increased by 1.6% compared with the previous quarter (after +1.5% in the first quarter of 2021). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP increased by 12.2% (after +0.5% in the previous quarter).

                   Employment growth in the euro area and EU

The number of employed persons increased by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.6% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, compared with the previous quarter. In the first quarter of 2021, employment had decreased by 0.2% in both the euro area and the EU.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment increased by 1.8% in both the euro area and in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, after -1.8% and -1.6% respectively in the first quarter of 2021.

These data provide a picture of labour input consistent with the output and income measure of national accounts.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo

Giappone. 2021Q2. Pil annualizzato +1.3%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-17.

2021-08-17__ Giappone Pil 001

Il Cabinet Office ha rilasciato il Report Quarterly Estimates of GDP

2021-08-17__ Giappone Pil 002

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Japan GDP rebounds in Q2 with 1.3% annualized growth

First uptick in 2 quarters beats forecasts despite COVID state of emergency.

Tokyo — Japan’s economy grew 0.3% in April-June from the previous quarter, equal to an annualized pace of 1.3%, the Cabinet Office announced on Monday, as corporate capital spending turned positive despite consumer spending that remained sluggish amid COVID-19.

The first turnaround in two quarters was bigger than an annualized increase of 0.66% that economists had expected. Most of the period between April and June coincided with a state of emergency in Tokyo, Osaka and other areas, when measures such as curbing outings, shortening restaurant hours, and closing large commercial facilities were implemented.

Japan suffered negative growth in the April-June quarter of 2020, when a state of emergency was declared for the first time in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. But growth turned positive in the July-December period.

In January-March of 2021, a decline in personal consumption due to the state of emergency in the Tokyo metropolitan area and other areas pushed down the overall growth rate, turning negative for the first time in three quarters.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Regno Unito

Regno Unito. 2021Q2. Pil -4.4% rispetto al 2019Q4. Investimenti aziendali +9.7%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-14.

2021-08-12__Regno Unito 001

                         In sintesi.

– The level of GDP is now 4.4% below where it was pre-coronavirus pandemic at Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019

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Diamo con piacere atto allo Office for National Statistics di aver riportato il pil sull’ultimo trimestre del 2019, ultima rilevazione prima del lockdown.

Il sistema economico inglese sta dando vivi segni di ripresa: in particolare gli investimenti delle aziende hanno ripreso a buon ritmo, +9.7%, così come la produzione manifatturiera, +13.9%.

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Lo Office for National Statistics ha Rilasciato il Report GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: April to June 2021

First quarterly estimate of gross domestic product (GDP). Contains current and constant price data on the value of goods and services to indicate the economic performance of the UK.

                         Main Points

– UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 4.8% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2021 following the easing of coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions.

– There have been increases in services, production and construction output over the quarter.

– In output terms, the largest contributors to this increase were from wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and food service activities, and education.

– The level of GDP is now 4.4% below where it was pre-coronavirus pandemic at Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019.

– In Quarter 2 2021, there were increases in nearly all main components of expenditure apart from “trade”, with the largest contribution from household consumption, which contributed 4.1 percentage points to the 4.8% increase following the easing of coronavirus restrictions in Quarter 2 2021 compared with Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2021.

                         Headline GDP figures.

UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 4.8% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2021, following the easing of coronavirus (COVID-19) restrictions (Figure 1). Monthly estimates published today (12 August 2021) show that GDP increased across all three months at 2.2% in April, 0.6% in May and 1.0% in June 2021.

The level of GDP in the UK is now 4.4% below where it was prior to the coronavirus pandemic at the end of 2019.

*

Several countries have published first estimates of nominal and real GDP for the second quarter of 2021, including France, Germany, Spain and the United States. Italy and Canada have also published first estimates of real GDP for Quarter 2 2021, but not nominal GDP and therefore have not been included in Figure 2. The UK experienced the largest increase in real GDP of these countries in Quarter 2 2021, in part reflecting the timing of the tightening and easing of public health restrictions in the first half of this year.

Of the other countries, Italy and Spain had the next largest volume increases in Quarter 2 2021. However, these two countries are the furthest away from their pre-pandemic levels of GDP, with Spain 6.8% and Italy 3.8% below their Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019 levels. The United States is the only economy to have recovered to above pre-pandemic levels (0.8%).

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio

Cina. Luglio21. Import +28.1%, Export +19.3%, Saldo 56.588 miliardi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela

2021-08-08.

2021-08-09__ Cina Export 001

                         In sintesi.

«high-tech manufacturing went up by 22.6 percent year on year»

«In the first five months, the total profits made by industrial enterprises …. was 3,424.7 billion yuan, up by 83.4 percent year on year»

«In the first half year, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 18,065.1 billion yuan, an increase of 27.1 percent year on year»

«In the first half year, the exports of mechanical and electrical products accounted for 59.2 percent of the total value of exports»

«The imports and exports by private enterprises accounted for 47.8 percent of the total value of imports and exports»

«The total value of exports was 1,812.2 billion yuan, up by 20.2 percent year on year»

* * * * * *

Il National Bureau of Statistics of China ha rilasciato il Report

National Economy in the First Half Year Witnessed the Steady and Sound Growth Momentum Consolidated.

In the first half year, faced with complicated and changing environment both at home and abroad, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core, all regions and departments strictly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, continued to consolidate and expand the achievements made in the epidemic prevention and control and the economic and social development, and implemented accurate macro policies. China’s economy sustained a steady recovery with the production and demand picking up, employment and prices remaining stable, new driving forces thriving fast, quality and efficiency enhancing, market expectations improving and major macro indicators staying within reasonable range. The national economy witnessed the steady and sound growth momentum consolidated.

According to the preliminary estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China in the first half year was 53,216.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7 percent at comparable prices, 5.6 percentage points lower than that of the first quarter; and the average two-year growth was 5.3 percent, 0.3 percentage points faster than that of the first quarter. By quarter, the year-on-year GDP growth for the first quarter was 18.3 percent, with an average two-year growth of 5.0 percent; for the second quarter 7.9 percent, with an average two-year growth of 5.5 percent. By industry, in the first half year, the value added of the primary industry was 2,840.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.8 percent, with an average two-year growth of 4.3 percent; the secondary industry 20,715.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 14.8 percent, with an average two-year growth of 6.1 percent; and the tertiary industry  29,661.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 11.8 percent, with an average two-year growth of 4.9 percent. The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of the second quarter was 1.3 percent.

….

                         Industrial Production Grew Steadily and High-tech Manufacturing Grew Fast.

In the first half year, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 15.9 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 7.0 percent, 0.2 percentage points faster than that of the first quarter; specifically, that of the second quarter went up by 8.9 percent year on year. In June, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 8.3 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 6.5 percent; and the month-on-month growth was 0.56 percent. In terms of sectors, in the first half year, the value added of the mining went up by 6.2 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 2.5 percent; that of the manufacturing up by 17.1 percent, with an average two-year growth of 7.5 percent; and that of the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water up by 13.4 percent, with an average two-year growth of 6.0 percent. The value added of high-tech manufacturing went up by 22.6 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 13.2 percent. In terms of products, the production of new-energy automobiles, industrial robots and integrated circuits increased by 205.0 percent, 69.8 percent, and 48.1 percent year on year respectively, with the average two-year growths all exceeding 30 percent. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added of the state holding enterprises went up by 11.9 percent year on year; that of share-holding enterprises up by 15.8 percent year on year; that of enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan up by 17.0 percent year on year; and that of private enterprises up by 18.3 percent year on year. In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index of China was 50.9 percent, staying above the threshold for sixteen months in a row. The Production and Operation Expectation Index was 57.9 percent.

In the first five months, the total profits made by industrial enterprises above the designated size was 3,424.7 billion yuan, up by 83.4 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 21.7 percent. The profit rate of the business revenue of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 7.11 percent, 2.05 percentage points higher than that of the first five months in 2020.

….

                         Imports and Exports of Goods Grew Fast and Trade Structure Continued to Improve.

In the first half year, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 18,065.1 billion yuan, an increase of 27.1 percent year on year. The total value of exports was 9,849.3 billion yuan, up by 28.1 percent year on year. The total value of imports was 8,215.7 billion yuan, up by 25.9 percent year on year. The trade balance was 1,633.6 billion yuan in surplus. The trade structure continued to improve. In the first half year, the exports of mechanical and electrical products accounted for 59.2 percent of the total value of exports, up by 0.6 percentage points over the same period last year. The imports and exports of general trade accounted for 61.9 percent of the total value of imports and exports, up by 1.7 percentage points over the same period last year. The imports and exports by private enterprises accounted for 47.8 percent of the total value of imports and exports, up by 2.8 percentage points over the same period last year. In June, the total value of imports and exports was 3,291.6 billion yuan, an increase of 22.0 percent year on year. The total value of exports was 1,812.2 billion yuan, up by 20.2 percent year on year. The total value of imports was 1,479.4 billion yuan, up by 24.2 percent year on year.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Stati Uniti

Buffett Indicator. 2021-07-29. Valore attuale 236%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-02.

2021-08-02__ Buffett 001

«By our calculation that is currently 89% (or about 2.9 standard deviations) above the historical average, suggesting that the market is Strongly Overvalued. These are historical, all-time highs. However, with interest rates at historic lows, there is reason to suspect that “this time is different” may hold true.»

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                         Theory & Data.

The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP. Named after Warren Buffett, who called the ratio “the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment”. (Buffett has since walked back those comments, hesitating to endorse any single measure as either comprehensive or consistent over time, but this ratio remains credited to his name). To calculate the ratio, we need to get data for both metrics: Total Market Value and GDP.

                         Total Market Value

The most common measurement of the aggregate value of the US stock market is the Wilshire 5000. This is available directly from Wilshire (links to all data sources below), with monthly data starting in 1971, and daily measures beginning in 1980. The Wilshire index was created such that a 1-point increase in the index corresponds to a $1 billion increase in US market cap. Per Wilshire, that 1:1 ratio has drifted, and as of Dec 2013 a 1-point increase in the index corresponded to a $1.15 billion dollar increase. We adjust the data back to inception (and projected going forward) on a straight-line basis to compensate for this drift. For example, the Sep 2020 Wilshire Index of 35,807 corresponds to a total real market cap value of $42.27T USD.

For data prior to 1970 (where Wilshire data is not available) we use the Z.1 Financial Account – Nonfinancial corporate business; corporate equities; liability, Level, published by the Federal Reserve, which provides a quarterly estimate of total market value back to 1945. In order to integrate the datasets, we index the Z.1 data to match up to the 1970 Wilshire starting point.

Combined, these data make our Composite US Stock Market Value data series, shown below. Our current estimate of composite US stock market value is $54.5T.

                         GDP

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the total production of the US economy. This is measured quarterly by the US Government’s Bureau of Economic Analysis. The GDP is a static measurement of prior economic activity – it does not forecast the future or include any expectation or valuation of future economic activity or economic growth. The GDP is calculated and published quarterly, several months in arrears, such that by the time the data is published it is several months old. In order to provide updated data for the most recent quarter we use the most recent GDPNow estimate published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Based on this, our current estimate of (annualized) GDP is $23.1T. A historical chart of GDP is shown below.

                         The Ratio of the Two

Given that the stock market value represents expectations of future economic activity, and the GDP is a measure of most recent actual economic activity, the ratio of these two data series represents expected future returns relative to current performance. This is similar in nature to how we think about the PE ratio of a particular stock. It stands to reason that this ratio would remain relatively stable over time, and increase slowly as technology allows for the same labor and capital to be used ever more efficiently.

Now, let’s look at how the Buffett Indicator has changed in the last ~75 years.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Unione Europea. 2021Q2. Pil EU +2.0%, Pil eurozona +1.9% sul 2021Q1.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-01.

2021-08-01__ Eurostat PIL 001

Eurostat ha rilasciato il Report preliminare  GDP up by 2.0% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU.

Correttamente, l’Istituto di Statistica ha titolato con il confronto sul trimestre precedente.

Infatti, il Pil 2020Q2 era stato inusitatamente basso, motivo per cui il rapporto 2021Q2/2020Q2 è abnormemente alto.

* * * * * * *


Eurostat. GDP up by 2.0% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU.

Preliminary flash estimate for the second quarter of 2021. GDP up by 2.0% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU. +13.7% and +13.2% respectively compared with the second quarter of 2020.

* * *

In the second quarter 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 2.0% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU, compared with the previous quarter, according to a preliminary flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2021, GDP had declined by 0.3% in the euro area and 0.1% in the EU.

These preliminary GDP flash estimates are based on data sources that are incomplete and subject to further revisions.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 13.7% in the euro area and by 13.2% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, after -1.3% in both zones in the previous quarter.

Among the Member States for which data are available for the second quarter 2021, Portugal (+4.9%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Austria (+4.3%) and Latvia (+3.7%), while Lithuania (+0.4%) and Czechia (+0.6%) recorded the lowest increase. The year on year growth rates were positive for all countries.

Source dataset: namq_10_gdp

The next estimates for the second quarter of 2021 will be released on 17 August 2021.

Pubblicato in: Cina

Cina. 2021H1. Pil +12.7% sul 2020H1.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-01.

2021-08-01 __ Cina 001

Il National Bureau of Statistics of China ha rilasciato  il Report Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Second Quarter and the First Half Year of 2021.

«                       Basic Concepts.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) refers to the final products at market prices produced by all resident units in a country during a certain period of time. GDP is the core indicator of the national accounts, and also an important indicator to measure the economic conditions and the level of development of a country.

In the practice of national accounting, gross domestic product is calculated using three approaches, namely production approach, income approach and expenditure approach, which reflect gross domestic product and its composition from different angles. The production approach refers to remove the value of intermediate goods and services from the value of goods and services created in the production process, and to get the value-added. The accounting formula as follows: value-added = total output – intermediate inputs. The GDP by production approach is the sum of value-added by production approach of various industries of national economy. The income approach refers to accounting the production activities from the point of generating income during the production process. Under this accounting method, the sum of the value-added obtained from four parts: workers compensation, net taxes on production, depreciation of fixed assets and operating surplus. The accounting formula as follows: value-added = workers compensation + net taxes on production + depreciation of fixed assets + operating surplus. The GDP by income approach equals to the sum of value-added by income approach of various industries of national economy. GDP by expenditure approach refers to the method of measuring GDP from the perspective of the final uses of production activities. The final uses include final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation and net export of goods and services.

National Bureau of Statistics released quarterly GDP used the production method which based on the result of basic accounting.

                         Production Coverage.

Production range of GDP accounting includes the following four parts: first, the production of goods and services provided to or ready to provide to other units by the producers; second, self-sufficient production of goods for own final consumption or capital formation by the producers; third, self-sufficient production of knowledge carrier products for own final consumption or capital formation by the producers, excluding similar activities undertaken by the household sector; housing services; fourth, housing services provided by owner-occupied housing, as well as self-sufficient production of household and personal services provided by paid family service personnel. Production range does not include unpaid household and personal services, nor no units controlled natural activities (such as wild, non-cultivated forest, berries or wild berries natural growth, the natural growth of the number of fish in the public sea), etc.

                         Related Laws and Regulations.

GDP accounting was strictly complying with the provisions of the Statistics Law of the People’s Republic of China. At present, China’s GDP was measured in accordance with the requirements of the China’s System of National Accounts (CSNA) (2016), which has adopted the basic accounting principles, contents and methods of the United Nation’s System of National Accounts (SNA) 2008.»