Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo

Italia. Anno22. Bollette. Previsti aumenti del 40%, poi c’è tutto il resto.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-16.

2021-12-14 Bollette 001

Con il prossimo anno 2022 ci si prepari ad una selva di rincari, in primis gli aumenti dei costi delle bollette.

Previsti aumenti del 40%, che vada di lusso: poi ci sarà tutto il resto.

Chi mai si fosse illuso che la stagflazione fosse lieve resterà severamente deluso. E siamo solo agli inizi.

* * * * * * *

«I rincari di luce e gas in arrivo da gennaio preoccupano»

«Previsti aumenti del 40% per famiglie e imprese»

«I prezzi delle materie prime continuano ad aumentare e le bollette registrano il segno più per il sesto trimestre consecutivo»

«l’energia elettrica aumenterà tra il 20 e il 25% rispetto ai tre mesi precedenti»

«il gas naturale, tra il 35 e il 40%»

«Per una famiglia media …. ci sarebbe un rialzo …. in totale 815 euro sul costo annuo»

«l’incremento del costo dell’acqua in bottiglia …. La filiera ha registrato un +10-15% di costi legati soprattutto ai contenitori di plastica o vetro»

«Pesa per esempio il costo del polietilene impiegato nei contenitori di plastica, cresciuto dell’85%, da 750 a 1.400 euro la tonnellata»

«Anche il costo delle bottiglie di plastica è aumentato, del 15%»

«A questi costi si aggiungono gli incrementi del costo dei trasporti, +15% e dei noli, +500%»

* * * * * * *

In Italia il PPI, Indice dei Prezzi alla Produzione, è aumentato del 20.4% anno su anno.

Nessuno, ma proprio nessuno, si illuda che gli aumenti subiti dai produttori non si ripercuotano alla fine sui prezzi al consumo. Ci si prepari ad un consistente rincaro del costo della vita.

* * * * * * *


Caro bollette, in arrivo una nuova stangata: il governo cerca altri tre miliardi.

Dopo l’ok ai fondi già stanziati nella legge di Bilancio, l’esecutivo è a lavoro per trovare le risorse per calmierare i prezzi nel primo trimestre del 2022. Previsti aumenti del 40% per famiglie e imprese. Preoccupa anche il caro-acqua.

Sono passati appena tre giorni dall’approvazione definitiva in Consiglio dei ministri delle misure di sostegno per le famiglie per il caro bollette, 3,8 miliardi di euro inseriti in Manovra, e il governo è già a lavoro per reperire altri tre miliardi per poter calmierare gli aumenti nel primo trimestre del 2022.

I rincari di luce e gas in arrivo da gennaio preoccupano e il dossier sulle tariffe è già sul tavolo del Tesoro.

Il dato che fa scattare l’allarme è la previsione di aumenti del 40% per famiglie e piccole imprese.

I prezzi delle materie prime continuano ad aumentare e le bollette registrano il segno più per il sesto trimestre consecutivo.

Il governo ha già incontrato i vertici dell’Arera, l’Authority che per legge predispone le revisioni trimestrali delle tariffe, ed è emerso che l’energia elettrica aumenterà tra il 20 e il 25% rispetto ai tre mesi precedenti, mentre ancora più pesante sarà la crescita per il gas naturale, tra il 35 e il 40%.

Una delle ipotesi per riuscire a “sterilizzare” i costi è quella di cancellare l’Iva che pesa sulle bollette. In questo modo, ci sarebbe un aiuto consistente anche in favore delle imprese, in particolare le più energivore.

                         Aumenti oltre gli 800 euro a famiglia

I conti di quanto potrebbero costare le nuove bollette senza un aiuto consistente dello stato, li ha fatti l’Unione Nazionale Consumatori.

Per una famiglia media se non venisse messo in campo un nuovo aiuto statale, ci sarebbe un rialzo rispettivamente di 136 e 679 euro, in totale 815 euro sul costo annuo.

Se l’incremento delle bollette fosse addirittura del 25%, allora le cifre salirebbero a 879 euro.

                         Non soltanto luce e gas, costa di più anche l’acqua

A pesare sulle tasche degli italiani nelle prossime settimane potrebbe essere anche l’incremento del costo dell’acqua in bottiglia.

La filiera ha registrato un +10-15% di costi legati soprattutto ai contenitori di plastica o vetro.

Per questo i produttori chiedono un ritocco dei listini con la Grande distribuzione, che fino ad oggi ha detto di no.

Le imprese del settore hanno dichiarato che se la minerale “quasi non costa”, le altre voci insieme, incidono per oltre il 90% sul costo di produzione.

Pesa per esempio il costo del polietilene impiegato nei contenitori di plastica, cresciuto dell’85%, da 750 a 1.400 euro la tonnellata. Come per la plastica riciclata il cui costo è passato dai 1.200 euro per tonnellata a 2.000 euro.

Anche il costo delle bottiglie di plastica è aumentato, del 15%.

A questi costi si aggiungono gli incrementi del costo dei trasporti, +15% e dei noli, +500%.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Blocco Europeo. Il +250% del natural gas manda in fumo le ambizioni green.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-29.

Andrà tutto bene 001

Nel Blocco Europeo, l’indice dei prezzi alla produzione, PPI, è salito al 12.1%, mentre il WPI, Wholesale Price Index, nella sola Germania si attesta al +12.3%.

Il Blocco Europeo è in stagflazione.

Blocco Europeo è strangolato dai rincari del 280% YoY del Gas Naturale. – Mr Putin ringrazia.

COP26, ‘Glasgow climate summit’ si preannuncia essere un fiasco memorabile

G20. Nessun paese ha adempiuto gli Accordi di Parigi del 2015.

Mondo. Materie Prime. I prezzi alla estrazione continuano a salire.

Ma su tutti i macro dati troneggia il Wholesale Price Index per il gas naturale.

«(Reuters) – Households across Europe face a jump in energy bills this winter due to a global surge in wholesale power and gas prices.

Benchmark European gas prices have surged around 250% this year due to low stock levels, high demand in Asia, high carbon prices and outages.

Governments across Europe are coming under pressure to curb energy bills to help families and small businesses as economies slowly emerge from the coronavirus pandemic.» [Reuters]

* * * * * * *

«Europe’s green ambitions could be hit as gas prices reach record highs»

«The recent spike is already having a tangible impact across the bloc»

«Some European leaders and lawmakers have blamed the EU for the energy price increases»

«The European Union could struggle to advance its green agenda as gas prices soar across the bloc, according to experts who warn against slowing down investment into the sector»

«However, these ambitions could be hit as a natural gas shortage on the continent drives prices higher»

«The front-month gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, a European benchmark, has risen more than 250% since the start of the year. It traded at about 74 euros ($87) a megawatt-hour on Tuesday — just shy of its record high of 79 euros it hit last week»

«The recent spike is already having a tangible impact»

«Soaring energy prices have hit economies across Europe»

«The risk to climate policymaking lies perhaps mostly in a loss of credibility ahead of the global COP26 climate talks in Glasgow later this year»

«“If wealthy countries in the EU are seen subsidizing energy for households that is in part supplied by fossil fuels, then the EU can hardly tell poorer countries to stop subsidizing household fuel consumption supplied by fossil fuels»

«Some European leaders and lawmakers have blamed the EU for the energy price increases»

«Poland said Monday that it will keep a coal mine running, even though the European Court of Justice ruled it should be shut down»

* * * * * * *

Riassumiamo in sintesi.

Con il natural gas rincarato del 250% nel volgere di un anno, si sono scatenate tutte le sequenziali conseguenze.

Questo combustibile alimenta infatti larga quota delle produzione di corrente elettrica.

Le ambizioni green si sono schiantate contro una situazione economica prossima al fallimento.

*


Europe’s green ambitions could be hit as gas prices reach record highs.

– The recent spike is already having a tangible impact across the bloc.

– Spain, for instance, has announced emergency measures to limit the profits that energy companies can make from gas alternatives.

– Some European leaders and lawmakers have blamed the EU for the energy price increases.

*

London — The European Union could struggle to advance its green agenda as gas prices soar across the bloc, according to experts who warn against slowing down investment into the sector.

The European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, has vowed to become carbon neutral by 2050, presenting a concrete plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% from 1990 levels by the end of this decade.

However, these ambitions could be hit as a natural gas shortage on the continent drives prices higher. The front-month gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, a European benchmark, has risen more than 250% since the start of the year. It traded at about 74 euros ($87) a megawatt-hour on Tuesday — just shy of its record high of 79 euros it hit last week.

The recent spike is already having a tangible impact. Spain, for instance, has announced emergency measures to limit the profits that energy companies can make from gas alternatives, including renewables. The government is also hoping to cap what consumers are paying for their electricity.

“Soaring energy prices have hit economies across Europe, and if Madrid’s actions are imitated elsewhere as governments prioritize cheap energy over the green transition, the EU’s credibility in advancing global climate action could take a hit,” Henning Gloystein, director of energy at the consultancy firm Eurasia Group, said in a note Friday.

Spain is not the only country to cap energy price increases, with France and Greece making similar moves. But the plan in Spain has been the subject of some criticism.

Iberdrola, a Spanish energy firm with a focus on renewables, said the move “would undermine investor confidence in the country” at a time when the nation needs private money to achieve its climate ambitions.

“The risk to climate policymaking lies perhaps mostly in a loss of credibility ahead of the global COP26 climate talks in Glasgow later this year,” Gloystein told CNBC via email.

“If wealthy countries in the EU are seen subsidizing energy for households that is in part supplied by fossil fuels, then the EU can hardly tell poorer countries to stop subsidizing household fuel consumption supplied by fossil fuels,” Gloystein added.

Meanwhile, Jacob Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States think tank, said he is not overly worried at this point, but that the ongoing energy crisis “makes it even more important that the Spanish government finds other sources of financing.”

“You can’t stop financing windmills for people’s bills,” he said, adding that countries should not ease their investments in greener energies.

                         The EU’s fault?

There is a wider problem, however: Some European leaders and lawmakers have blamed the EU for the energy price increases.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, for instance, said earlier this month that “Polish power prices are tied to the EU’s climate policies,” according to Politico.

When asked if comments like these could hurt the EU’s green ambitions, Kirkegaard said: “There’s absolutely that risk because clearly the Polish government want to extract more money from the EU for the green transition.”

Poland said Monday that it will keep a coal mine running, even though the European Court of Justice ruled it should be shut down. Under the same ruling, Krakow has to pay a 500,000 euro fine for every day that it keeps the mine open.

The EU’s climate chief, Frans Timmermans, has insisted that the price increases are not the bloc’s fault. “Only about a fifth of the price increase can be attributed to CO2 prices rising,” he told the European Parliament earlier this month. “The others are simply about shortages in the market.”

“Had we had the green deal five years earlier, we would not be in this position because then we would have less dependency on fossil fuels and natural gas,” he added.

‘Fair green transition’

Kirkegaard said that “it is too early to tell” if the price rises are going to jeopardize the EU’s green ambitions. The biggest risk, in his opinion, is whether public support for a greener economy falls because it is perceived to be impacting on their bills.

The European Commission announced earlier this summer that there would be special funds allocated to support the most vulnerable parts of the population in this green transition. The question is whether that will suffice.

“This must be a fair green transition. This is why we proposed a new Social Climate Fund to tackle the energy poverty that already 34 million Europeans suffer from,” Ursula von der Leyen, president of the commission said at a speech last week.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Geopolitica Asiatica, Materie Prime, Problemia Energetici

Indonesia. Carbone. Dice di volerlo dismettere e costruisce nuove centrali termiche.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-08.

2021-07-08__ Indonesia Coal 001

Una buona parola amicale costa nulla, poi, si vedrà.

L’enclave liberal socialista occidentale ha dichiarato guerra al carbone e vorrebbe che tutto il mondo lo seguisse.

L’Indonesia a  parole va dicendo che entro il 2050 sarà totalmente green, ma per l’intanto costruisce numerose centrali a carbone per incrementare la propria produzione di corrente elettrica.

L’importante nella vita è essere persone pratiche.

* * * * * * *

«The electricity generation capacity in Indonesia reached about 69.6 gigawatts in 2019»

«this capacity would not be sufficient for long and additional capacities must be created quickly»

«electricity consumption will increase from the current 270 terawatt hours to over 500 terawatt hours by 2027»

«Indonesia had been relying largely on coal and gas to meet its electricity demands»

«Both raw materials are available in great quantities, are dispatchable, and the corresponding power plants can be built cheaply»

«In 2020, coal mines were obliged to sell 25 percent of the production volume on the domestic market»

«the state-owned electricity supplier PLN received a maximum price of 70 U.S. dollars per ton of coal purchased»

«the minimum target of 550 million metric tons has been met and the demand for coal is expected to rise again due to a cold winter in China and the Chinese ban on Australian coal»

«At the same time, it’s building 21 GW of new coal plants that will have an operating life until 2065»

* * *

«Indonesia set its coal benchmark price higher in July at $115.35 per tonne»

«The price is 14.97% higher than June’s benchmark price»

«Indonesia’s state-owned utility says it will start shutting down coal-fired power plants and phase them all out by 2055»

«At the same time, it’s building 21 GW of new coal plants that will have an operating life until 2065»

«Indonesia says it will begin retiring coal-fired power plants for good — while still continuing to build more than a hundred new ones»

* * * * * * *


Indonesia sets coal benchmark price at highest in a decade

Jakarta, July 5 (Reuters) – Indonesia set its coal benchmark price higher in July at $115.35 per tonne, an official document published by its energy and minerals ministry showed on Monday.

The price is 14.97% higher than June’s benchmark price and the highest since the $117.6 per tonne in May 2011, Refinitiv data showed.

The document did not show what accounted for the price jump. An energy ministry spokesman told Reuters that a statement will be issued later on Monday.

*

Indonesia to retire coal-fired power plants while also adding more

«Summary.

– Indonesia’s state-owned utility says it will start shutting down coal-fired power plants and phase them all out by 2055, amounting to 50 gigawatts of capacity.

– At the same time, it’s building 21 GW of new coal plants that will have an operating life until 2065 — a contradiction that activists say undermines the coal phase-out plan.

– The mixed message is the latest from a government that still doesn’t have a unified policy on a clean energy transition, and which continues to lavish generous subsidies and incentives on coal miners and power plant operators.

– Energy policy experts say the president needs to publicly weigh in on the issue, including declaring a deadline for Indonesia to achieve net-zero carbon emissions. ….

Indonesia says it will begin retiring coal-fired power plants for good — while still continuing to build more than a hundred new ones, in the latest mixed message from one of the last coal-friendly countries in the world»

* * *

Coal power industry in Indonesia – statistics & facts

The electricity generation capacity in Indonesia reached about 69.6 gigawatts in 2019. For a dynamic, emerging country, this capacity would not be sufficient for long and additional capacities must be created quickly. According to forecasts by the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, electricity consumption will increase from the current 270 terawatt hours to over 500 terawatt hours by 2027.

                         Indonesia’s focus on natural resources.

Indonesia had been relying largely on coal and gas to meet its electricity demands. Both raw materials are available in great quantities, are dispatchable, and the corresponding power plants can be built cheaply. Furthermore, coal in particular can be used to promote Indonesia’s export business and support remote areas in their economic development. Coal mining has therefore been a cornerstone of politics and a likely target for government interventions. In 2020, coal mines were obliged to sell 25 percent of the production volume on the domestic market and the state-owned electricity supplier PLN received a maximum price of 70 U.S. dollars per ton of coal purchased.

                         Coal production outlook.

Not surprisingly, coal producers expected a thriving market in Indonesia. However, the coal industry has also been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and it is therefore unlikely that the coal output will have increased further in 2020. And yet, according to the Department of Energy, the minimum target of 550 million metric tons has been met and the demand for coal is expected to rise again due to a cold winter in China and the Chinese ban on Australian coal. A flourishing export market is important as around 70 to 75 percent of Indonesia’s coal production is exported abroad. The main export countries include China, India, Japan and South Korea. In 2018, about one third of the global coal exports was exported from Indonesia, making it the largest coal exporting country in world. However, the Indonesian energy program could turn the industry into an internal market. For that reason, and to achieve independence from the global market, several large Indonesian mining companies have expanded directly into the energy sector in order to become an integrated energy company that uses its own coal.

                         Coal’s impact on the environment.

On the other hand, the production of coal and especially electricity generation from coal does have an impact on the environment. Back in 2016, it was estimated that the emissions of carbon dioxide amounted to 4.6 billion metric tons in Southeast Asia. Taking current developments in Indonesia and other countries into account, not less, but more is to be expected.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Problemia Energetici

PetroChina ha scoperto nel bacino Junggar nello Xinjiang gas per 100 mld mc e petrolio.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-12-29.

Cina. Bacino Junggar 001

«PetroChina,Asia’s largest producer of oil and gas, has struck a large natural gas discovery in northwest China’s Xinjiang region with an initial estimated reserve exceeding 100 billion cubic meters»

«This marks another breakthrough in the state oil firm’s natural gas development in the region, following a similar-sized discovery at Tarim basin in September last year»

«PetroChina tapped 610,000 cubic meters of daily gas flow and 106.3 cubic meters of crude oil at exploration well Hu-1, located in an exploration zone totalling 15,000 square kilometers at the southern rim of the Junggar basin»

«The oil and gas flows were struck at around 7,400 meters below the earth’s surface»

«Near the discovery, PetroChina is drilling three more exploration wells – Letan 1, Tianwan 1 and Tianan-1.»

* * * * * * *


Scoperte di campi di queste dimensioni ricchi di petrolio e gas naturali è un evento del tutto benvenuto.

Tuttavia questa notizia si apre anche ad altre considerazioni.

La Cina si è messa in grado di poter fare prospezioni, e quindi estrarre, in zone climaticamente avverse, raggiungendo profondità di oltre i settemila metri, e per di più in un contesto geologico di granito.

Tutte le tecnologie coinvolte sono altamente sofisticate e richiedono sostanziosi know-how pluridisciplinari.

*


PetroChina strikes big gas find in China Xinjiang’s Junggar basin: state media

PetroChina,Asia’s largest producer of oil and gas, has struck a large natural gas discovery in northwest China’s Xinjiang region with an initial estimated reserve exceeding 100 billion cubic meters, China’s state news agency Xinhua reported over the weekend.

This marks another breakthrough in the state oil firm’s natural gas development in the region, following a similar-sized discovery at Tarim basin in September last year.

PetroChina tapped 610,000 cubic meters of daily gas flow and 106.3 cubic meters of crude oil at exploration well Hu-1, located in an exploration zone totalling 15,000 square kilometers at the southern rim of the Junggar basin, Xinhua said.

The oil and gas flows were struck at around 7,400 meters below the earth’s surface.

Near the discovery, PetroChina is drilling three more exploration wells – Letan 1, Tianwan 1 and Tianan-1.

Xinjiang is among the top areas for PetroChina’s domestic exploration and production spending as the state energy giant has vowed to spend 150 billion yuan ($22.90 billion) between 2018 and 2020 to boost total oil and gas output at the region to 1 million barrels per day oil equivalent.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Materie Prime

Turkia. Scoperto nel Mar Nero un giacimento di gas, Tuna-1, da 320 miliardi di m3.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-08-25.

Turkia - Tuna-1

«Il presidente Recep Tayyip Erdogan, ha annunciato la “più grande scoperta di un giacimento di gas nel Mar Nero nella storia della Turchia. Erdogan ha annunciato che la nave da ricerca Fatih ha scoperto un giacimento di gas nel Mar Nero di circa 320 miliardi di metri cubi»

«la rivelazione della scoperta, effettuata lo scorso 20 luglio, a circa 100 miglia nautiche al largo delle costa del Mar Nero, in un lotto chiamato Tuna-1»

«L’obiettivo è permettere al popolo turco di utilizzare questo gas a partire dal 2023 e risolvere alla radice il problema dell’approvvigionamento energetico. Chi cerca trova, e ora mi aspetto buone notizie dal Mediterraneo orientale»

«Turkey made the biggest discovery of natural gas in its history in the Black Sea»

«Deepwater projects are complex in any environment, but the Black Sea poses additional logistical challenges that must be managed»

«My Lord has opened the door to unprecedented wealth for us»

«Erdogan previously hinted as a “new era” for the country»

«Last year, energy imports cost the country $41 billion (€35 billion).»

«Production could take several years. Analysts still caution it could take several years and billions of dollars in investment before Ankara can start gas production»

«The find is smaller than other nearby discoveries, including Egypt’s Zohr field, one of the largest in the Mediterranean, which is estimated to hold 850 billion cubic meters of natural gas»

* * * * * * *

Nessun paese, per quanto stato sovrano, può essere considerato effettivamente libero nell’agire senza una autosufficienza energetica e delle forze armate allo stato dell’arte.

La politica di Mr Erdogan può piacere o meno, me nessuno può negare che stia agendo per il bene della sua nazione.

Questa scoperta, una volta commercializzata, renderà la Turkia indipendente energeticamente, con un risparmio stimabile ai quaranta miliardi di dollari americani ogni anno. Ma più che il risparmio conta la indipendenza.

Molto verosimilmente ciò potrebbe portare a ridiscutere con elementi nuovi il ruolo della Turkia nella Nato e nei confronti dell’Unione Europea, che non è né energeticamente autosufficiente né militarmente rilevante.

*


 

Erdogan annuncia la piu’ grande scoperta di gas nel Mar Nero.

La nave da ricerca Fatih ha scoperto un giacimento di circa 320 miliardi di metri cubi. Il presidente: “L’obiettivo è permettere al popolo turco di utilizzare questo gas a partire dal 2023 e risolvere alla radice il problema dell’approvvigionamento energetico.

Il presidente Recep Tayyip Erdogan, ha annunciato la “più grande scoperta di un giacimento di gas nel Mar Nero nella storia della Turchia. Erdogan ha annunciato che la nave da ricerca Fatih ha scoperto un giacimento di gas nel Mar Nero di circa 320 miliardi di metri cubi.

Era dunque questa la” buona notizia per la Turchia”, che il presidente aveva anticipato mercoledì, rinviando alla fine della preghiera di oggi la rivelazione della scoperta, effettuata lo scorso 20 luglio, a circa 100 miglia nautiche al largo delle costa del Mar Nero, in un lotto chiamato Tuna-1.

“L’obiettivo è permettere al popolo turco di utilizzare questo gas a partire dal 2023 e risolvere alla radice il problema dell’approvvigionamento energetico. Chi cerca trova, e ora mi aspetto buone notizie dal Mediterraneo orientale”, ha detto Erdogan, facendo riferimento alle attività di ricerca della nave Oruc Reis. 

*


Turkey discovers large natural gas reserve off Black Sea.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed to step up the search for energy in the Mediterranean. The discovery of 320 billion cubic meters of natural gas comes amid a dispute with Greece over prospecting.

Turkey’s president said on Friday the country had made its biggest-ever discovery of natural gas after completing new exploration work in the Black Sea.

Recep Tayyip Erodgan said the 320-billion-cubic-meter (11.3 trillion cubic feet) deep-sea find was made at a site Turkish vessels began exploring last month. Erdogan said he hoped to see the first gas reach Turkish consumers in 2023.

“Turkey made the biggest discovery of natural gas in its history in the Black Sea,” a delighted Erdogan said during a speech in Istanbul’s Dolmabahce Palace.

Unprecedented wealth’

“My Lord has opened the door to unprecedented wealth for us,” he enthused.

The Turkish drilling ship Fatih has been prospecting in the western Black Sea over the past month, close to where Romania has also found gas reserves.

If confirmed as recoverable resources, the reserves could ease Turkey’s dependence on costly energy imports in what Erdogan previously hinted as a “new era” for the country.

Turkey is hugely reliant on Russia for its energy and has been keen to diversify its supplies.

Last year, energy imports cost the country $41 billion (€35 billion).

Production could take several years

Analysts still caution it could take several years and billions of dollars in investment before Ankara can start gas production.

Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of foreign exchange research at Commerzbank, said the discovery is positive news, “but it’s not the game-changer that some were expecting” after earlier reports suggested the find would meet Turkey’s energy needs for the next two decades.

The find is smaller than other nearby discoveries, including Egypt’s Zohr field, one of the largest in the Mediterranean, which is estimated to hold 850 billion cubic meters of natural gas.

Turkey’s new Black Sea find comes amid raised tensions between Ankara and Athens over oil and gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean.

Warships from both NATO members have been shadowing each other after Turkey sent a research ship to look for potential undersea oil and gas deposits in disputed waters.

Mediterranean search to intensify

Erdogan vowed to step up the search for energy in the Mediterranean by the end of the year, despite the ongoing row with European Union member Greece.

“We are going to speed up our operations in the Mediterranean with the deployment by the end of the year of the Kanuni (drilling ship), which is currently in maintenance,” Erdogan said in a keynote address in Istanbul.

“God willing we expect similar good news,” he added.

Turkey is also at odd with Cyprus over energy exploration around the island. It has dispatched warship-escorted vessels off Cyprus’s coast to drill for gas, insisting that it’s acting to protect its interests and those of Turkish Cypriots to the area’s natural resources.

The Greek Cypriot government of the ethnically split island has slammed Turkey for encroaching in its
waters and economic rights.

*


Turkey nets largest-ever find with Tuna-1 gas discovery.

A gas discovery of the scale of the Tuna-1 find in the Black Sea, if developed, would be transformational for Turkey, given its overwhelming reliance on imports and crippling energy import bill.  Turkey is chiefly reliant on piped gas from Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran but the share of liquefied natural gas imports has also continued to grow.

Thomas Purdie, an analyst on Wood Mackenzie’s upstream research team, said: “Even if the official 320 billion cubic metre figure given by President Tayyip Erdogan when he announced the discovery is treated as an estimate of gas in place, this is Turkey’s biggest-ever find – by a wide margin – and one of the largest global discoveries of 2020.

“What’s more, it reaffirms the deepwater Black Sea’s hydrocarbon potential after several disappointing wells in Bulgaria.” 

He added: “However, no matter the political and economic importance, reaping the supply rewards will be complex and a 2023 date for bringing the discovery – renamed Sakarya – looks ambitious.

“First and foremost, the discovery will need to be appraised by more wells – to improve understanding of the geology and confirm resource estimates. 

“It’s early days, but any future development would cost billions of dollars. Deepwater projects are complex in any environment, but the Black Sea poses additional logistical challenges that must be managed. This is one of the factors that has stalled Romania’s Neptun Deep megaproject, located just 100 kilometres north of the Tuna well.” 

Purdie said TPAO would benefit from bringing an international partner into the project, adding: “There could be attractions despite the market outlook – highly competitive tax terms in a basin that international oil companies know increasingly well over recent years. Majors operating across the border in Romania and Bulgaria have had mixed recent success, but will take note of this momentous news.” 

Murray Douglas, director, Europe gas, said: “The Turkish gas market is large, with 2019 demand of almost 45 billion cubic metres. 

“Gas demand has fallen year-on-year since 2017. Much of that is down to the weak Turkish economy and increased competition from coal-fired and renewable generation.

“However, despite coronavirus, Turkish gas demand has only fallen 3%, year-to-date, versus last year. That is a less severe fall than many other European markets.” 

Douglas added: “In the 2020s, this discovery could have far-reaching implications for future gas imports and upcoming negotiations with suppliers – with Gazprom, Azerbaijan and Iran.” 

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Unione Europea

Romania. È energeticamente autosufficiente ed esporta gas naturale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-03-16.

2020-03-09__romania__001

Romania. Lo speaker Florin Iordache fa il gesto del dito ai gerarchi della EU, in europarlamento.

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Romania. Pil anno su anno +4.4%.

Romania. I gerarchi EU la odiano per motivi di sordida bottega.

Romania seeking energy independence [2014-04-28]

«Romania is said to be sitting on Europe’s second-largest shale gas reserves. It’s turned to controversial hydraulic fracturing or “fracking” in a big way to unlock that gas and guarantee energy independence.»

Romania and Hungary clash over Black Sea gas distribution

«Gas deposits off Romania’s coast worth billions of dollars have drawn the country into an economic row with Hungary. The EU is aiming to reduce its energy dependence on Russia, and Budapest wants to play a key role. …. Over the last few years, massive natural gas deposits have been discovered off Romania’s Black Sea coast. Conservative estimates suggest they hold at least 40 billion cubic meters (142 billion cubic feet) of gas; others say they could hold as much as 200 billion cubic meters — enough to cover Romania’s energy needs for decades and even turn the country into an energy exporter.  …. As is so often the case with major international energy sector projects, BRUA has had its share of controversies. At present, Romania and Hungary are embroiled in a legal dispute over Romania’s offshore gas rights and the volume of projected deliveries to Hungary via the BRUA pipeline.

Romania offshore gas law plays with fire [2018-11-20]

«As a new offshore oil and gas exploration law comes into force in Romania, the EU nation’s promise of becoming a key gas producer in Europe could be threatened. Not that Bucharest seems bothered.

Romania’s untapped oil and gas potential of up to 200 billion cubic meters, or bcm, in the Black Sea has attracted the interest of the world’s oil and gas majors, including US giant ExxonMobil and Austria’s OMV Petrom.

Romania already covers almost all its gas use from its domestic onshore production and could double that over the next two decades when — or perhaps now if — offshore sources are added to supply.

The Eastern European country produces 10.5 bcm of gas a year, mostly onshore, and consumes 11-12 bcm, making it largely independent of Russian gas, something others in the region can only envy. Other EU members are in fact scrambling to define coherent energy strategies that don’t make them too reliant on Russian imports, hence the spike in interest in Romania, as well as US and Norwegian gas.»

* * * * * * *

Ricapitoliamo.

Al momento attuale la Romania consuma 11 – 12 bcm, billion cubic meter, di gas naturale, producendone 10.5 bcm: è praticamente autosufficiente.

Detto con parole che non si dovrebbero dire, non è più ricattabile energeticamente da parte dell’Unione Europea.

Può abbastanza facilmente diventare però anche un produttore che esporta.

«Hungary was the first to sign up for Romania’s Black Sea gas after Budapest agreed with US firm ExxonMobil for deliveries starting in 2022, covering half of Hungary’s yearly gas consumption of 10 bcm.»

Così, Romania ed Ungheria non dipenderebbero più dal gas russo, specie da quello che fluisce dal Nord Stream attraverso la Germania, che potrebbe sempre chiudere i rubinetti.

«But Romanian state-owned gas transporter Transgaz must first finish phase two of the BRUA gas pipeline that would enable gas transports from Romania to Hungary to reach 4.4 bcm a year»

* * * * * * *

«EU accepts Transgaz’s commitments to facilitate natural gas exports from Romania»

«Transgaz has committed to make available to the market significant firm capacities for natural gas exports from Romania to neighbouring Member States, in particular Hungary and Bulgaria»

«More specifically, Transgaz has committed to make available minimum export capacities of 1.75 billion cubic metres per year at the interconnection point between Romania and Hungary (Csanádpalota)»

«This capacity is equivalent to around one sixth of Hungary’s annual gas consumption»

«It has also committed to make available minimum export capacities totalling 3.7 billion cubic metres per year at two interconnection points between Romania and Bulgaria (Giurgiu/Ruse and Negru Vodă I/Kardam). This capacity covers more than half of Bulgaria and Greece’s annual gas consumption.»

Conclusione.

– La Romania è diventata non solo energeticamente indipendente, ma anche grande esportatrice di gas naturale ai paesi limitrofi: Ungheria, Bulgaria e Grecia.

– Se la Commissione ha dovuto avallare questo dato di fatto, i liberal socialisti dell’europarlamento hanno dovuto ingoiare un boccone amaro, rancido: la Romania e gli altri stati sono sempre meno ricattabili economicamente.

– Questa è un’altra grande vittoria degli identitari sovranisti.

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EU accepts Transgaz’s commitments to facilitate natural gas exports from Romania.

Transgaz has committed to make available to the market significant firm capacities for natural gas exports from Romania to neighbouring Member States, in particular Hungary and Bulgaria, the European Commission said.

“Transgaz has committed to make available capacities at interconnection points for increased natural gas exports from Romania to Hungary and Bulgaria,” Commission Executive Vice-President in Charge of Competition Policy Margrethe Vestager said, adding that this will promote the free flow of gas at competitive prices in South Eastern Europe and is a further step towards a single European energy market. “Consumers across the region will benefit from greater security of supply of a key transition fuel towards the ultimate objective of an emissions free energy mix, in line with the European Green Deal,” she added.

The Commission announced a formal investigation in June 2017 to assess whether Transgaz, the state-controlled natural gas transmission system operator in Romania, infringed EU antitrust rules by restricting exports of natural gas from Romania. In particular, the Commission was concerned that Transgaz may have carried out such restrictions by underinvesting in or delaying construction of infrastructure for gas exports and interconnection tariffs for gas exports that made exports commercially unviable, using unfounded technical arguments as a pretext for restricting exports.

These restrictions may have maintained or created barriers to the cross-border flow of natural gas from Romania, one of the EU’s largest natural gas producers, to Hungary and Bulgaria, contrary to the objective of an integrated Energy Union where energy flows freely across borders directed by competitive forces and based on the best possible use of resources, the Commission said.

Following the opening of the formal investigation, Transgaz offered commitments to address the Commission’s concerns. The Commission then consulted market participants to verify whether the proposed commitments would remove the competition concerns identified by the Commission.

In light of the market test, Transgaz has made some amendments to its proposed commitments, the Commission said, adding that the final commitments will ensure that market participants can access significant volumes of export capacities via the interconnection points between Romania and neighbouring Member States. More specifically, Transgaz has committed to make available minimum export capacities of 1.75 billion cubic metres per year at the interconnection point between Romania and Hungary (Csanádpalota). This capacity is equivalent to around one sixth of Hungary’s annual gas consumption. It has also committed to make available minimum export capacities totalling 3.7 billion cubic metres per year at two interconnection points between Romania and Bulgaria (Giurgiu/Ruse and Negru Vodă I/Kardam). This capacity covers more than half of Bulgaria and Greece’s annual gas consumption.

Moreover, Transgaz also committed to ensure that its tariff proposals to the Romanian national energy regulator (ANRE) will not discriminate between export and domestic tariffs in order to avoid interconnection tariffs that would make exports commercially unviable.

Finally, the Romanian company committed to refrain from using any other means of hindering exports.

The final commitments provide for significant additional capacity compared to the market-tested commitments, in particular to Hungary, by including capacities envisaged for the Romanian section of the first phase of the Bulgaria-Romania-Hungary-Austria (BRUA) gas pipeline project, the Commission said, stressing that, as a result, Transgaz’s participation in this project will also be subject to legally binding deadlines.

According to the Commission, the commitments will remain in force until 31 December 2026. A trustee will be in charge of monitoring the implementation and compliance with the commitments.

The Commission said the amended commitments address the identified competition concerns and therefore has made them legally binding on Transgaz.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Problemia Energetici, Russia, Unione Europea

Russia. Nel 2019 scadono gli accordi al transito di gas attraverso l’Ukraina.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-03-29.

TurkStream

Sempre che non siano in corso delle trattative riservate, cosa possibile quanto verosimile, l’Unione Europea sembrerebbe non aver ancora pensato a come comportarsi quando a fine 2019 scadranno gli accordi tra Russia ed Ukraina, in base ai  quali il gas russo transita sul territorio ukraino per giungere ai consumatori europei.

Per quanto possa sembrare essere ragionevole che alla fine si arrivi ad un rinnovo dei permessi, ciò non è assolutamente detto che accada. A quanto sembrerebbe, il problema sarebbe sicuramente di prezzo del pedaggio, ma molto di più sarebbe politico.

L’Europa dipende mani e piedi dalle forniture russe di gas, sia per il riscaldamento ed uso domestico, sia per alimentare molte delle esistenti centrali elettriche.

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Lascia quindi alquanto perplessi la notizia per cui l’Ungheria avrebbe preso l’iniziativa e contrattato direttamente le forniture con la Russia.

«Russia will supply gas to Hungary in 2020, regardless of agreements on gas transit between Moscow and Kiev»

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«Today, the CEO of Gazprom and I have concluded an agreement that Gazprom will ensure gas supplies to Hungary, regardless of whether a transit agreement is concluded between Russia and Ukraine,” RBC quoted  Hungarian Foreign and Trade Minister Péter Szijjártó»

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«A situation might arise when Russia will no longer supply gas to the European continent via Ukraine»

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«We have to prepare for this scenario, because we must always take into account the worst scenario when planning the security of the country’s energy supply»

* * * * * * *

Il problema è di non poco conto ed anche di ben difficile soluzione. Poi, magari, in colloqui riservati, le parti potrebbero anche dimostrasi una volta tanto ragionevoli.

Che tra Russia ed Ukraina non corra buon sangue non dovrebbe essere cosa ignota: l’Unione Europea parteggerebbe ufficialmente per l’Ukraina, ma nel contempo ha bisogno del gas russo per sopravvivere.

La Russia sta proseguendo i lavori per il Nord Stream 2 con grande risentimento americano, e nel contempo sta proseguendo i lavori sullo TurkStream, tra le urenti ambasce dell’Unione Europea. Ambedue le soluzioni bypassano l’Ukraina.

* * *

Turk Stream. Bulgaria approva il progetto.

Un’occhiata sia pur superficiale al tracciato del TurkStream in avanzata fase di posa mette chiaramente in luce come il tracciato passi dalla Turkia alla Bulgaria e, quindi, attraverso la Serbia, arrivi direttamente in Ungheria.


The Moskow Times. 2019-03-24. Russia Agrees To Ensure Gas Supplies to Hungary, Bypassing Ukraine

Russia will supply gas to Hungary in 2020, regardless of agreements on gas transit between Moscow and Kiev, the RBC news website reported on Friday.  

The transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine expires at the end of this year and a new agreement has not yet been negotiated.

“Today, the CEO of Gazprom and I have concluded an agreement that Gazprom will ensure gas supplies to Hungary, regardless of whether a transit agreement is concluded between Russia and Ukraine,” RBC quoted  Hungarian Foreign and Trade Minister Péter Szijjártó as saying after negotiations with Gazprom head Alexei Miller.

“A situation might arise when Russia will no longer supply gas to the European continent via Ukraine. We have to prepare for this scenario, because we must always take into account the worst scenario when planning the security of the country’s energy supply,” RBC quoted Szijjártó as saying.

State-run Gazprom is building two pipelines — Nord Stream 2 and the European leg of TurkStream — in the face of opposition from the European Union and the United States.

Both will carry Russian gas to Europe, bypassing Ukraine. The Nord Stream 2 link under the Baltic Sea is jointly funded by Gazprom and five regional energy companies. The planned TurkStream leg from Turkey to the EU is set to receive financing from a 50-50 joint venture between Gazprom and its Turkish partner.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Geopolitica Mondiale, Medio Oriente, Problemia Energetici

Qatar. Esce dall’Opec e si concentra sul gas naturale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-12-03.

2018-12-03__Qatar__001

«Qatar has announced it is pulling out of the Opec oil producers’ cartel, just days before the group meets in Vienna»

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«Qatar produces around 650,000 of barrels of oil a day, compared with Russia’s 11.37 million barrels a day.»

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«The Gulf state, which joined Opec in 1961, said it would leave the cartel in January and would focus on gas production»

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«Qatar, the world’s biggest exporter of liquified natural gas, has been boycotted by some Arab neighbours over allegations that it funds terrorism»

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«Opec is expected to cut oil supply at this week’s meeting»

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«We don’t have great potential (in oil), we are very realistic. Our potential is gas»

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«Expectations are high that there will be agreement on output after Russian President Vladmir Putin said at the weekend that he and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman “have agreed to extend our agreement” to limit production»

* * * * * * * *

Il braccio di ferro è evidente.

Da una parte i paesi produttori vorrebbero poter spuntare prezzi alti, e quindi sono favorevoli ad una riduzione della estrazione; dall’altra parte i paesi consumatori vorrebbero poter ottenere i prodotti petroliferi a basso costo.

Recentemente Mr Trump aveva constato come un basso costo del petrolio fosse equivalente negli Stati Uniti ad una riduzione delle tasse, ma i produttori avevano obiettato che il ragionamento era corretto, ma che loro non erano sicuramente di accordo nel dover pagarne il costo per conto degli gli americani.

Per quanto riguarda il mercato del gas naturale liquefatto, gli osservatori fanno notare che, essendo gli americani degli esportatori, avrebbero tutto da guadagnare da prezzi elevati. Da questo punto di vista il Qatar si sarebbe trovato un socio di non poco peso.


Bbc. 2018-12-03. Qatar pulls out of Opec oil producers’ cartel

Qatar has announced it is pulling out of the Opec oil producers’ cartel, just days before the group meets in Vienna.

The Gulf state, which joined Opec in 1961, said it would leave the cartel in January and would focus on gas production.

Qatar, the world’s biggest exporter of liquified natural gas, has been boycotted by some Arab neighbours over allegations that it funds terrorism.

Opec is expected to cut oil supply at this week’s meeting.

Explaining Qatar’s decision, Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi said: “We don’t have great potential (in oil), we are very realistic. Our potential is gas.”

He said geopolitics was not factor in the decision.

Since June 2017, Qatar has been cut off by some of its powerful Arab neighbours, particularly Saudi Arabia, over its alleged support for terrorism.

Production cuts

Qatar’s withdrawal from Opec may not have any lasting impact on the price of oil as it a relatively small producer.

But this week’s meeting of Opec is being closely watched by markets for any agreement over cuts to production after the oil price fell sharply in November.

Expectations are high that there will be agreement on output after Russian President Vladmir Putin said at the weekend that he and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman “have agreed to extend our agreement” to limit production.

Russia is not a member of Opec but is the biggest oil producer outside the group.

Mr Putin’s comments pushed oil prices higher. In early trading on Monday, Brent crude was $2.60 higher at $62.06 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate oil rose $2.42 to $53.35 a barrel.

However, prices are down sharply from September when Brent crude was at $81.16 a barrel.

Qatar produces around 650,000 of barrels of oil a day, compared with Russia’s 11.37 million barrels a day.

Pubblicato in: Problemia Energetici, Unione Europea

Romania. I gerarchi EU la odiano per motivi di sordida bottega.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-11-24.

2018-11-22__Romania__001

«Romania: GDP increases 7.3%

Gross Domestic Product of Romania grew 7.3% in 2017 compared to last year. This rate is 25 -tenths of one percent higher than the figure of 4.8% published in 2016.

The GDP figure in 2017 was $210,000 million, Romania is number 50 in the ranking of GDP of the 196 countries that we publish. The absolute value of GDP in Romania rose $22,193 million with respect to 2016.

The GDP per capita of Romania in 2017 was $10,756, $1,252 higher than in 2016, it was $9,504. To view the evolution of the GDP per capita, it is interesting to look back a few years and compare these data with those of 2007 when the GDP per capita in Romania was $8,326.

If we order the countries according to their GDP per capita, Romania is in 64th position of the 196 countries whose GDP we publish.»  [Country Economy]

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Un giudizio sommario sui governi che si sono succeduti in Romania potrebbe essere lo constatare che il pil era 42.815 mld Usd nel 1998 passati ai 210 mld Usd nel 2017: è quintuplicato in venti anni. Il pil procapite è passato nello stesso periodo da 1,897 Usd a 10,765 Usd: si può opinare come 10,000 dollari all’anno non siano una cifra entusiasmante, ma se si tiene conto che la partenza era poco meno di 2,000 Usd la differenza in tenore di vita è stridente.

Se poi si considera il pil procapite per potere di acquisto, si ha la sorpresa di trovarlo a 26,499 Usd. In altri termini, una cifra che consente una vita del tutto dignitosa, sempre migliorabile, ovviamente, ma che pone i rumeni ben fuori dalla fascia della povertà

* * * * * * *

Il massimo comun denominatore dei governi rumeni potrebbe essere trovato nel fatto che prima di esprimere una qualche teoria politica oppure economica erano ardenti patrioti: non lo sbandieravano, ma si comportavano da tali.

Difficile la convivenza con i gerarchi dell’Unione Europea. Questi ultimi si erano illusi di poterli manipolare facendo forza sulla leva economica, ma cinquanta anni di comunismo avevano ben forgiato il carattere dei rumeni.

Adesso i motivi di contesa si sono ingigantiti, ma uno è davvero ben grande.

Sulle coste rumene, e nelle acque di competenza economica, si trovano grandi giacimenti di gas naturale, che la Romania decise di sfruttare appieno.

Romania seeking energy independence [2014-04-28]

«Romania is said to be sitting on Europe’s second-largest shale gas reserves. It’s turned to controversial hydraulic fracturing or “fracking” in a big way to unlock that gas and guarantee energy independence. But local residents are worried about damage to the environment.»

Tutte fandonie. I residenti se ne facevano un baffo, pur di avere energia a basso costo: corrente elettrica e riscaldamento di inverno. I pruriti ambientalisti erano alimentati dalla EU ed da uno schieramento di ngo, tutti tesi ad impedire alla Romania di arrivare all’autosufficienza.

Greenpeace campaigners protest Chevron fracking in Romania

«Greenpeace activists have staged a protest outside a controversial shale gas exploration site in Romania. They insisted the use of fracking technologies could harm the environment there. …. They urged the leftist government in Romania to ban fracking altogether. …. According to the US Energy Information Administration, Romania potentially holds enough shale gas to cover domestic demand for a century.»

Avrebbe mai potuto essere assente la immarcescibile Greenpeace?  Ovunque siano in ballo gli interessi dei loro padroni inscenano drammatici teatrini a favore dell’ecologia,indicando come sarebbe bucolicamente splendido se i rumeni fossero tornati all’età della pietra. I rumeni, si intende, mica gli attivisti di Greenpeace.Gli attivisti di Greenpeace perseguitano solo gli onesti.

Romania and Hungary clash over Black Sea gas distribution

«Gas deposits off Romania’s coast worth billions of dollars have drawn the country into an economic row with Hungary. The EU is aiming to reduce its energy dependence on Russia, and Budapest wants to play a key role. …. Over the last few years, massive natural gas deposits have been discovered off Romania’s Black Sea coast. Conservative estimates suggest they hold at least 40 billion cubic meters (142 billion cubic feet) of gas; others say they could hold as much as 200 billion cubic meters — enough to cover Romania’s energy needs for decades and even turn the country into an energy exporter.  …. As is so often the case with major international energy sector projects, BRUA has had its share of controversies. At present, Romania and Hungary are embroiled in a legal dispute over Romania’s offshore gas rights and the volume of projected deliveries to Hungary via the BRUA pipeline.

In late June, Kristof Terhes, head of Hungarian gas system operator FGSZ, demanded Romanian politicians pass legislation necessary to deliver the 4.4 billion cubic meters of gas that Hungary seeks annually. Soon thereafter, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto went a step further, claiming Romania was endangering the energy independence of the entire region with its foot dragging. Romania reacted with consternation and a number of politicians and experts retorted that Hungary was not living up to its responsibilities regarding construction of the BRUA pipeline.»

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«The exchange reflects the complex web of conflicting interests tied to the situation. On one side stands Austria and the rest of Western Europe, all of whom seek to curb dependence on Russian gas imports. Western energy companies such as Exxon and Austria’s OMV, who are conducting the Black Sea gas exploration, are also part of that alliance.

On the other side, Hungary is aiming to improve, if not take a leading role in, the Central and Eastern European energy sector. And that is why Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government decided to halt construction on the section of the BRUA pipeline leading to Austria’s Baumgarten gas distribution hub in July of last year. The Hungarians justified the stoppage with the claim that the existing Slovakian connector was entirely sufficient for transport.»

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Romania offshore gas law plays with fire [2018-11-20]

«As a new offshore oil and gas exploration law comes into force in Romania, the EU nation’s promise of becoming a key gas producer in Europe could be threatened. Not that Bucharest seems bothered.

Romania’s untapped oil and gas potential of up to 200 billion cubic meters, or bcm, in the Black Sea has attracted the interest of the world’s oil and gas majors, including US giant ExxonMobil and Austria’s OMV Petrom.

Romania already covers almost all its gas use from its domestic onshore production and could double that over the next two decades when — or perhaps now if — offshore sources are added to supply.

The Eastern European country produces 10.5 bcm of gas a year, mostly onshore, and consumes 11-12 bcm, making it largely independent of Russian gas, something others in the region can only envy. Other EU members are in fact scrambling to define coherent energy strategies that don’t make them too reliant on Russian imports, hence the spike in interest in Romania, as well as US and Norwegian gas.

Hungary was the first to sign up for Romania’s Black Sea gas after Budapest agreed with US firm ExxonMobil for deliveries starting in 2022, covering half of Hungary’s yearly gas consumption of 10 bcm. 

Bur Romanian state-owned gas transporter Transgaz must first finish phase two of the BRUA gas pipeline that would enable gas transports from Romania to Hungary to reach 4.4 bcm a year. 

A legal burden

And now a new law could put a dampener on Romania’s plans. The final form of the law freezes taxes for the period of offshore gas production, but retains a limit of 30 percent of investment allowed to be deduced when paying taxes, a change investors and experts alike have attacked.

They say Bucharest’s fiscal regime is now one of the least attractive in the Black Sea for gas. The law also includes a 50 percent domestic supply obligation for gas and a requirement for 25 percent of workers to be Romanian citizens, which some suggested may also contravene EU laws governing open labor market practices. 

Romania may also lack the infrastructure to consume even half of the estimated offshore gas production.

“For this, we need interconnections, market liberalization and a stable legal framework,” Francois-Regis Mouton, director of EU affairs at the International Association of Oil and Gas Producers (IOGP), told local Agerpress.

The government hopes the new legislation will bring in up to $20 billion (€17.5 billion) over the next 20 years, while a Deloitte study says that investments in Black Sea gas will generate extra budget revenues of $26 billion and add $40 billion to Romania’s GDP by 2040.

Opposition mounting

“Tax stability is completely removed, which makes it impossible to make final investment decisions,” offshore concessionaires association ARCOMN said in a statement. 

And this could affect exploration of the Black Sea Neptun block, a joint venture between OMV’s Romanian unit OMV Petrom and ExxonMobil.

In 2012, the two companies said they had discovered 42-84 bcm of gas reserves at the ExxonMobil-operated Domino-1 well.

The Domino field and the Midia Gas Development, operated by Carlyle Group-backed Black Sea Oil & Gas, are awaiting financial investment decisions. They are expected to announce whether to start commercial operations by year’s end

“We cannot make an investment decision at Petrom in this quarter as planned,” OMV CEO Rainer Seele said recently, adding that OMV had to evaluate the conditions for what the company describes as a “billion-euro investment.”

The Romanian Black Sea Titleholders Association (RBSTA), a group representing investors in offshore projects in the Black Sea, said industry players would need to evaluate the impact of the law on a contract-by-contract basis.

Investors in the Black Sea, including ExxonMobil, OMV Petrom, Lukoil and Carlyle, have invested over $2 billion in exploring Black Sea perimeters in the last 10 years.»

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Ricapitoliamo.

Al momento attuale la Romania consuma 11 – 12 bcm, billion cubic meter, di gas naturale, producendone10.5 bcm: è praticamente autosufficiente.

Detto con parole che non si dovremmo dire, non è più ricattabile energeticamente.

Può abbastanza facilmente diventare però anche un produttore che esporta.

«Hungary was the first to sign up for Romania’s Black Sea gas after Budapest agreed with US firm ExxonMobil for deliveries starting in 2022, covering half of Hungary’s yearly gas consumption of 10 bcm.»

Così, Romania ed Ungheria non dipenderebbero più dal gas russo, specie da quello che fluisce dal Nord Stream attraverso la Germania, che potrebbe sempre chiudere i rubinetti.

«But Romanian state-owned gas transporter Transgaz must first finish phase two of the BRUA gas pipeline that would enable gas transports from Romania to Hungary to reach 4.4 bcm a year»

Poi, taluni si potrebbero chiedere se far proseguire o meno il Brua fino all’Austria.

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Ma adesso i rumeni hanno messo la ciliegina sulla torta: hanno varato una nuova legge sul settore.

Questa è una delle reazioni dei gerarchi di Bruxelles:

«The final form of the law freezes taxes for the period of offshore gas production, but retains a limit of 30 percent of investment allowed to be deduced when paying taxes, a change investors and experts alike have attacked.

They say Bucharest’s fiscal regime is now one of the least attractive in the Black Sea for gas. The law also includes a 50 percent domestic supply obligation for gas and a requirement for 25 percent of workers to be Romanian citizens, which some suggested may also contravene EU laws governing open labor market practices.»

Ma siamo pazzi da legare?

I Rumeni vorrebbero rendere deducibile solo il 30% degli investimenti, vorrebbero trattenersi la metà del gas estratto, e come se non bastasse imporrebbero anche che il 25% della manodopera fosse rumena!

Insomma, questi rumeni proprio non sono solidali con i gerarchi, anzi, quando vanno a parlare all’europarlamento fatto lo il gesto del dito.

Romania. Lo speaker Florin Iordache fa il gesto del dito ai gerarchi della EU, in europarlamento.

Pubblicato in: Economia e Produzione Industriale, Energie Alternative, Problemia Energetici

Enea. Gas aumentato al 38%, rinnovabili calate di -7%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-10-16.

2017-10-16__Enea__001

L’Enea, Agenzia Nazionale per le nuove tecnologie, l’energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile, ha rilasciato il Report:

Energia: ENEA, gas verso i massimi nel mix energetico (38%) e rinnovabili in calo (-7%), disponibile anche in versione pdf.

Anche se ne riportiamo ampi estratti delle parti più significative, suggeriremmo di leggere l’originale per intero.

Sintesi.

«Secondo la stima preliminare ENEA nel II trimestre 2017 i consumi di energia primaria sono rimasti sullo stesso livello dell’anno precedente, nonostante che dalle principali variabili guida (PIL, produzione industriale, temperatura, prezzi) sia venuta una lieve spinta alla domanda di energia. Il dato cumulato relativo all’intero primo semestre dell’anno mostra invece una crescita dello 0,6%.»

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«In termini di fonti primarie si è registrato un nuovo incremento significativo del gas naturale (+1,2 Mtep, +11% rispetto al II trimestre 2016) e un nuovo calo dei combustibili solidi (-9%) e del petrolio (-1%). Un nuovo calo subiscono anche le fonti energetiche rinnovabili, che scendono di 0,5 Mtep (-7%)»

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«Nella generazione elettrica è aumentata ancora la generazione da gas naturale (+5,6TWh), …. È ancora in calo il ricorso al carbone, con un -11% che segue il -11% del I trimestre e il -13% dell’intero 2016, anche per il perdurare degli elevati prezzi del carbone sui mercati internazionali.»

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«I prezzi dell’energia elettrica risultano in aumento per tutte e tre le fasce di consumo analizzate. Nel caso della piccola impresa italiana, dopo il +1,3% del II trimestre, la stima ENEA è di un aumento del 3,7% nel III trimestre»

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«I prezzi del gas risultano in aumento nell’insieme del primo semestre 2017 (+9% per le piccole utenze), ma si stima una nuova flessione nel III trimestre 2017, che dovrebbe essere sufficiente a riportare i prezzi sui valori del II semestre 2016. Resta il problema del differenziale positivo di prezzo tra piccole e grandi utenze, che si mantiene elevato, attestandosi intorno all’84%.»

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«la quota di gas naturale sull’energia primaria potrebbe tornare vicino al massimo storico del 38%.»

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«La ripresa dell’economia italiana si riflette sullo scenario energetico nazionale con l’aumento (+1,6%) dei consumi finali di energia nei primi sei mesi del 2017; questa crescita, tuttavia, ha prodotto anche un aumento delle emissioni di anidride carbonica (+1,9%) con il conseguente rallentamento del percorso di decarbonizzazione. A evidenziarlo è l’Analisi trimestrale del sistema energetico italiano curata dall’ENEA, che individua tra le cause dell’aumento delle emissioni fattori di natura congiunturale come la ridotta piovosità che ha fortemente ridimensionato il contributo dell’idroelettrico.

Per l’intero comparto delle rinnovabili, l’Analisi rileva per il secondo trimestre una diminuzione del 7%, con il risultato che a fine 2017, per la prima volta dopo diversi anni, la quota nel mix energetico di queste fonti potrebbe fermare la sua crescita. Dall’Analisi emerge anche un ulteriore calo dei combustibili solidi (-9%) e del petrolio (-1%) e un nuovo significativo incremento sia dei consumi (+11% rispetto allo stesso periodo 2016) che delle importazioni di gas naturale (+10% nel primo semestre 2017). Questo aumento, insieme alla costante e strutturale diminuzione della produzione nazionale, fa sì che a fine anno la nostra dipendenza dal gas estero potrebbe superare il 92%, un nuovo record, con un ritorno ai massimi storici del peso del gas sull’energia primaria totale (38%).

“Questi fattori hanno determinato un nuovo peggioramento dell’indice ISPRED che misura l’andamento di sicurezza, prezzi e decarbonizzazione nel nostro Paese. Se nel primo trimestre 2017 abbiamo rilevato un calo dell’indice del 10% su base annua, ora siamo a -17%, con -4% rispetto al trimestre precedente”, spiega Francesco Gracceva l’esperto ENEA che ha coordinato l’Analisi. “Il nuovo peggioramento è legato in particolare all’aumento delle emissioni, il terzo consecutivo dopo il +5% del IV trimestre 2016 e il +2,5% del I trimestre 2017. In questo scenario gli obiettivi europei di riduzione dei gas serra al 2020 restano comunque a portata di mano, ma il cambiamento della traiettoria di decarbonizzazione a partire dal 2015 rende più problematico il raggiungimento degli obiettivi al 2030”, conclude Gracceva.

Nello specifico, l’indice ISPRED segnala un peggioramento sul lato sicurezza sia degli indicatori del sistema elettrico che del gas, in uno scenario che negli ultimi anni ha visto riemergere alcune fragilità del passato. Sul lato prezzi, l’Indice evidenzia un peggioramento del 14% per effetto principalmente del prezzo del gasolio che, seppur in discesa, risulta il più caro dell’intera Ue (“primato negativo” in condominio con la Svezia e legato alla diminuzione della fiscalità in altri Paesi membri). Allo stesso tempo, aumentano i prezzi dell’energia elettrica per le piccole imprese (+1,3% del II trimestre con una stima di +3,7% nel III trimestre 2017) e del gas per le piccole utenze (+9% nel I semestre).»

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«Nel secondo trimestre 2017 la domanda di gas naturale in Italia è ammontata a circa 13,5 miliardi di m3, in aumento di circa 1,3 miliardi di m3 rispetto allo stesso periodo dell’anno precedente (Figura 39), pari a un incremento dell’11%. Si tratta del quinto incremento tendenziale consecutivo, e negli ultimi dieci trimestri, cioè a partire dal I trimestre del 2015»

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«Dal lato dell’offerta, nel secondo trimestre dell’anno le importazioni hanno seguito la crescita della domanda, aumentando del 9,5% (+1,5 miliardi di m3) rispetto allo stesso trimestre dell’anno precedente (Figura 41).

La Russia resta ampiamente il primo fornitore di gas italiano. Dopo che in due degli ultimi tre trimestri il peso delle importazioni dalla Russia era sceso al di sotto del 40%, nell’ultimo trimestre tale peso è tornato a rappresentare quasi la metà dell’import totale. La forte crescita dei flussi al punto di entrata di Tarvisio (+1,4 miliardi di m3, +20% rispetto all’anno precedente) ha infatti quasi completamente compensato la notevole riduzione dei flussi al punto di entrata di Mazara (-1,7 miliardi di m3, -31%).»

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«Nell’insieme dei Paesi europei si sono registrate tendenze simili a quelle viste per l’Italia. Dopo i massimi raggiunti nel 2016 dall’export di gas russo verso l’Europa (N.B.: Turchia inclusa), grazie a prezzi ai minimi degli ultimi dodici anni e inferiori ai prezzi spot, le esportazioni russe verso l’Europa sono continuate ad aumentare sia nel I sia nel II trimestre 2017, in concomitanza con un prezzo del gas russo sostanzialmente allineato ai prezzi spot»

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«Come nei due trimestri precedenti anche nel II trimestre 2017 le emissioni di CO2 del sistema energetico italiano sono aumentate in termini tendenziali (cioè rispetto allo stesso periodo dell’anno precedente), sebbene in modo meno marcato»

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«D’altra parte, nei due trimestri precedenti le emissioni erano state spinte da un importante fattore congiunturale, la crescita della generazione termoelettrica necessaria per rimpiazzare le ridotte importazioni dalla Francia»

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«La conseguenza è che i dati degli ultimi due anni hanno cambiato in modo significativo la traiettoria di decarbonizzazione italiana, allontanandola dagli obiettivi di più lungo periodo, cioè quelli relativi al 2030 (riduzione del 33% per i settori non- ETS e del 43% per l’insieme dei settori ETS europei)»

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Una cosa resta inspiegata ed apparentemente inspiegabile

I prezzi degli energetici sono denominati in dollari americani.

Se il rapporto euro / dollaro il 20 dicembre dello scorso anno valeva 1.04, ad oggi esso quota 1.1836.

Sarebbe sembrato sequenziale che i prezzi degli energetici fossero variati di conserva, cosa che non è stata.