Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Africa

Nigeria. 2021Q1. Il pil ritorna ad essere positivo 0.51%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-30.

2021-05-26__ Nigeria

«Nigeria’s economy grew 0.5% in the first quarter, lifted by higher crude production and oil prices, the country’s statistics office said on Sunday, as activities slowly gain momentum after the gradual easing of coronavirus lockdowns»

«Africa’s largest economy, exited its second recession since 2016 in the fourth quarter, despite a full-year contraction in 2020»

«Nigeria had been grappling with low growth before the coronavirus pandemic triggered a recession and created large financing gaps, including dollar shortages and inflation»

«Nigeria had been grappling with low growth before the coronavirus pandemic triggered a recession and created large financing gaps, including dollar shortages and inflation»

«Oil, which accounts for around two-thirds of Nigerian government revenue and 90% of foreign exchange, contracted 2.21% in the first quarter as crude production rose to 1.72 million barrels per day from the fourth quarter»

«Dollar shortages have stoked inflation to a more than 4-year high, while a shrinking labour market and mounting insecurity have pressured households»

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Questi macrodati suggerirebbero che la Nigeria stia uscendo dalla fase recessiva: permangono i forti dubbi su come possa contenere l’inflazione, ad oggi sopra il 12%.

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Nigeria’s economy grows in first quarter on oil price rise.

Abuja (Reuters) – Nigeria’s economy grew 0.5% in the first quarter, lifted by higher crude production and oil prices, the country’s statistics office said on Sunday, as activities slowly gain momentum after the gradual easing of coronavirus lockdowns.

Africa’s largest economy, exited its second recession since 2016 in the fourth quarter, despite a full-year contraction in 2020.

Nigeria had been grappling with low growth before the coronavirus pandemic triggered a recession and created large financing gaps, including dollar shortages and inflation.

“The Q1 2021 growth rate was slower than the 1.87% growth rate recorded in Q1 2020 but higher than 0.11% recorded in Q4 2020, indicative of a slow but continuous recovery,” The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said.

Nigeria is inoculating its 200 million citizens, but last month directed its regions to stop giving first doses of AstraZeneca vaccines once they use half their current stock, to safeguard supply for a second dose.

The NBS said the non-oil sector, which the government is trying to make the main growth sector, rose 0.79% in the first quarter. Telecoms, crop production, real estate, food manufacturing and construction lifted growth in the quarter.

Crude prices rose above $70/barrel on Tuesday but fell on Wednesday on renewed demand concerns as COVID-19 cases in Asia rose and fears that rising inflation might lead the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates, which could limit growth.

Oil, which accounts for around two-thirds of Nigerian government revenue and 90% of foreign exchange, contracted 2.21% in the first quarter as crude production rose to 1.72 million barrels per day from the fourth quarter.

With weak growth, few expect Nigeria’s central bank to alter interest rates next week.

The bank has pursued an accommodative stance by leaving interest rates on hold. However, dollar shortages have stoked inflation to a more than 4-year high, while a shrinking labour market and mounting insecurity have pressured households.

“While this points to the likelihood of firmer growth from the second quarter, it still does not allow for a more robust policy response to inflationary pressures,” Razia Khan, chief economist for Africa and the Middle East at Standard Chartered, said.

Pubblicato in: Cina

Cina. 2021Q1. Export +32.3%, Import +43.1%, anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-09.

2021-05-08__ Cina Import Export 001

Il National Bureau of Statistics of China ha rilasciato il Report National Economy Made a Good Start in the First Quarter.

«6. Imports and Exports of Goods Witnessed Noticeable Momentum of Growth and Trade Structure Continued to Optimize.

In the first quarter, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 8,468.7 billion yuan, an increase of 29.2 percent over that of the previous year. The total value of exports was 4,614.0 billion yuan, up by 38.7 percent year on year; that of imports was 3,854.7 billion yuan, up by 19.3 percent year on year. The trade balance was 759.3 billion yuan in surplus. In March, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 3,022.8 billion yuan, up by 24.0 percent year on year. The total value of exports was 1,555.4 billion yuan, up by 20.7 percent year on year; that of imports was 1,467.4 billion yuan, up by 27.7 percent year on year. The trade structure continued to optimize. In the first quarter, the imports and exports of general trade accounted for 61.2 percent of the total value of the imports and exports, 1.3 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year. The imports and exports by private enterprises accounted for 46.7 percent of the total value of the imports and exports, 4.4 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year»

2021-05-08__ Cina Import Export 002

Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Cina. 2021Q1. Pil +18.3% anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-04-17.

2021-04-16__ Cina Pil 001

Il National Bureau of Statistics of China ha rilasciato il Report:

National Economy Made a Good Start in the First Quarter.

«…. According to preliminary estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter reached 24,931.0 billion yuan, up by 18.3 percent year on year, or up by 0.6 percent over that in the fourth quarter of 2020 and 10.3 percent over that in the first quarter of 2019, with an average two-year growth of 5.0 percent at comparable prices. By industry, the value added of the primary industry was 1,133.2 billion yuan, up by 8.1 percent year on year, or an average two-year growth of 2.3 percent; that of the secondary industry was 9,262.3 billion yuan, up by 24.4 percent year on year, or an average two-year growth of 6.0 percent; and that of the tertiary industry was 14,535.5 billion yuan, up by 15.6 percent year on year, or an average two-year growth of 4.7 percent. On the one hand, the year-on-year GDP growth of 18.3 percent in the first quarter was affected by such incomparable factors as the low base figure of last year and increase of working days due to staff staying put during the Spring Festival. On the other hand, the quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.6 percent in the first quarter with the average two-year growth reaching 5.0 percent demonstrated a steady recovery of the national economy. ….»

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Germania – PIL (Prodotto Interno Lordo) (PIL) (Annuale) -2.7%

Francia – PIL (Prodotto Interno Lordo) (PIL) -1.4%

Italia – PIL (Prodotto Interno Lordo) (Annuale) -6.6%

Spagna – PIL (Prodotto Interno Lordo) (Annuale) -8.9%

Zona Euro – PIL (Prodotto Interno Lordo) (Annuale) -4.9%

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China’s economy grows 18.3% in post-Covid comeback.

China’s economy grew a record 18.3% in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same quarter last year.

It’s the biggest jump in gross domestic product (GDP) since China started keeping quarterly records in 1992.

However, Friday’s figures are below expectations, with a Reuters poll of economists predicting 19% growth.

They are also heavily skewed, and less indicative of strong growth, as they are compared to last year’s huge economic contraction.

In the first quarter of 2020, China’s economy shrank 6.8% due to nationwide lockdowns at the peak of its Covid-19 outbreak.

“The national economy made a good start,” said China’s National Bureau of Statistics, which released the first quarter data.

But it added: “We must be aware that the Covid-19 epidemic is still spreading globally and the international landscape is complicated with high uncertainties and instabilities.”

Other key figures released by China’s statistics department also point to a continuing rebound, but are also unusually strong because they are compared against extremely weak numbers from last year.

Industrial output for March rose 14.1% over a year ago, while retail sales grew 34.2%.

“Promisingly, the monthly indicators suggest that industrial production, consumption and investment all gained pace in March on a sequential basis, following the weakness in the first two months,” said Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at research and consultancy firm Oxford Economics.

However, some analysts predicted a number of sectors will slow as government fiscal and monetary support is reduced.

Yue Su, the Economist Intelligence Unit’s principal economist for China, while the latest figures show that the country’s economic recovery is broad-based, some production and export activity could have been “front-loaded” into the first quarter, suggesting slower growth ahead.

“Trade performance and domestic industrial activities for the rest of year might not be able to maintain such strong momentum, due to lack of measures to stimulate domestic economy,” she said.

The figures nevertheless suggest China has continued to gain economic momentum. Comparing growth for the last quarter with the last quarter of 2020, the Chinese economy grew by a far smaller 0.6%.

Helped by strict virus containment measures and emergency relief for businesses, the economy has recovered steadily since the pandemic hit.

Despite a calamitous start to the year, China was the only major economy to register growth in 2020 albeit its weakest in decades, at 2.3%.

China has set an economic growth target of 6% for 2021, after scrapping its target last year.