Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Stati Uniti, Unione Europea

EurUsd. Powell (Fed) fa effetto anche se tace e non fa nulla.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-02.

2019-05-02__EurUsd__001

«L’euro si è fortemente indebolito nei confronti del dollaro ieri, dopo la conferenza stampa del governatore della Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, che ha motivato le scelte della banca centrale di mantenere i tassi d’interesse invariati al 2,5%, come ampiamente atteso dal mercato»

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«In realtà, subito dopo la pubblicazione della decisione del FOMC, l’euro si era apprezzato contro il biglietto verde, salendo fino a quota 1,1265 in pochi minuti, con i traders che hanno letto evidentemente in chiave molto dovish il comunicato della Fed»

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«Poi, non appena il governatore ha preso la parola, l’euro ha iniziato la sua discesa che l’ha portato fino a quota 1,1191, quindi di nuovo sotto la soglia psicologica dell’1,12»

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«Difficile dire cosa abbia spinto i traders a leggere in chiave hawkish le parole di Powell, capovolgendo la lettura del comunicato della Fed di pochi minuti prima, dal momento che il governatore è sembrato essere più colomba del previsto, annunciando, anche se non esplicitamente, un “whatever it takes” da parte della banca centrale per riportare l’inflazione al livello del 2,0%, in questo momento ancora lontano e indesiderato dai banchieri centrali americani»

*

«Il che può significare solo un mix di politiche monetarie accomodanti o, addirittura, come ritiene qualcuno, ultra-accomodanti»

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In primo luogo, definiamo alcuni termini specialisti del forex.

Dovish. Deriva da “dove” (’colomba’) e per associazione analogica alle caratteristiche dell’animale docile, pacifico e positivo connota una linea di condotta morbida, in contrasto con la linea dura che, invece, definisce l’atteggiamento “Hawkish” (da falco). Si riferisce ad un quadro economico che supporta in genere tassi di interesse più bassi.

Dovish è simile a bearish. Ma dove bearish descrive una visione pessimistica di un mercato, dovish descrive una visione ottimista che riguarda l’evolversi dell’inflazione.

Hawkish. Deriva da “hawk” letteralmente dall’inglese “falco”, è utilizzato nella descrizione della condotta delle politiche monetarie più “dure” (in analogia con le caratteristiche dell’animale) portate avanti dalle banche centrali che contrastano il possibile aumento dell’inflazione. Al contrario di Dovish, Hawkish si riferisce ad una linea di condotta più dura soprattutto nella considerazione dell’inflazione. Questa linea di condotta tende a preferire le misure che si ritiene possano mantenere bassa l’inflazione come: tassi di interesse più elevati, politica fiscale stretta e restrizioni in materia di espansione monetaria. Hawkish è simile a bullish. Ma laddove bullish descrive una visione ottimistica nei confronti di una economia o di un bene, hawkish descrive un atteggiamento pessimista nei confronti dell’evolversi (al rialzo) dell’inflazione.

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Come si constata, anche senza prendere nessuna iniziativa pratica, le parole di un governatore quale Powell hanno il potere si sommuovere i mercati valutari.

È uno strumento nel cui uso Mario Draghi è maestro.

Non si stenta fantasia ad immaginare come Mr Trump sia furente al calor rovente.

Nei fatti è dilacerato da due strategie divergenti: un dollaro debole e bassi tassi di interesse sarebbero quanto di meglio lui possa desiderare per il sistema economico statunitense, ma nel converso un dollaro forte mette in difficoltà il mondo e favorisce il contenimento della inflazione interna.

Ma in ultima analisi si tenga presente come le variazioni, sia pur consistenti, che prendono campo in due giorni sono spesso rapidamente ammortizzabili da parte dei mercati.

Viviamo in ogni caso un periodo fortemente turbolento.

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L’euro affonda dopo le parole di Powell

L’euro si è fortemente indebolito nei confronti del dollaro ieri, dopo la conferenza stampa del governatore della Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, che ha motivato le scelte della banca centrale di mantenere i tassi d’interesse invariati al 2,5%, come ampiamente atteso dal mercato. In realtà, subito dopo la pubblicazione della decisione del FOMC, l’euro si era apprezzato contro il biglietto verde, salendo fino a quota 1,1265 in pochi minuti, con i traders che hanno letto evidentemente in chiave molto dovish il comunicato della Fed, soprattutto per la parte relativa ai timori di una bassa inflazione prolungata nel tempo.

Poi, non appena il governatore ha preso la parola, l’euro ha iniziato la sua discesa che l’ha portato fino a quota 1,1191, quindi di nuovo sotto la soglia psicologica dell’1,12. Difficile dire cosa abbia spinto i traders a leggere in chiave hawkish le parole di Powell, capovolgendo la lettura del comunicato della Fed di pochi minuti prima, dal momento che il governatore è sembrato essere più colomba del previsto, annunciando, anche se non esplicitamente, un “whatever it takes” da parte della banca centrale per riportare l’inflazione al livello del 2,0%, in questo momento ancora lontano e indesiderato dai banchieri centrali americani.

Il che può significare solo un mix di politiche monetarie accomodanti o, addirittura, come ritiene qualcuno, ultra-accomodanti, che si risolvono in una riduzione dei tassi d’interesse e in una politica espansiva del bilancio. In altre parole, il riconoscimento di una forward guidance molto dovish, nonostante per poterne valutare l’effettiva realizzabilità gli analisti avranno bisogno di un po’ di tempo.

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Dovish.

Dovish è una parola inglese molto spesso utilizzata nelle analisi delle condotte di politica monetaria delle banche centrali. Letteralmente, deriva da “dove” (’colomba’) e per associazione analogica alle caratteristiche dell’animale docile, pacifico e positivo connota una linea di condotta morbida, in contrasto con la linea dura che, invece, definisce l’atteggiamento “Hawkish” (da falco).

Dovish, infatti, si riferisce ad un quadro economico che supporta in genere tassi di interesse più bassi. L’atteggiamento “dovish” parte dall’assunto che le pressioni inflazionistiche siano sufficientemente basse perché i tassi di interesse possano mantenersi altrettanto bassi.

Come già annunciato, spesso Dovish viene utilizzato nel contesto di descrizione delle azioni di politica monetaria e delle prospettive delle banche centrali.

Ad esempio, se un governatore di una banca centrale dovesse affermare che gli effetti di elevati costi agricoli non rischiano di ripercuotersi sugli indici inflazionistici, allora tali osservazioni tenderebbero ad essere descritte come ’dovish’.

Dovish è simile a bearish. Ma dove bearish descrive una visione pessimistica di un mercato, dovish descrive una visione ottimista che riguarda l’evolversi dell’inflazione.

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Hawkish

Hawkish, che deriva da “hawk” letteralmente dall’inglese “falco”, è utilizzato nella descrizione della condotta delle politiche monetarie più “dure” (in analogia con le caratteristiche dell’animale) portate avanti dalle banche centrali che contrastano il possibile aumento dell’inflazione.

Al contrario di Dovish, Hawkish si riferisce ad una linea di condotta più dura soprattutto nella considerazione dell’inflazione.

Con hawkish, infatti, si definisce un atteggiamento negativo nei confronti dell’evoluzione dell’inflazione e dei suoi possibili effetti sulla società e sull’economia. Secondo la posizione più hawk le pressioni inflazionistiche possono erodere il potere d’acquisto dei consumatori e destare incertezza circa il mantenimento della stabilità dei prezzi.

In generale, questa linea di condotta tende a preferire le misure che si ritiene possano mantenere bassa l’inflazione come: tassi di interesse più elevati, politica fiscale stretta e restrizioni in materia di espansione monetaria.

Come già detto, l’approccio “da falco” sostiene la linea dura della condotta monetaria; ad esempio se un governatore di una banca centrale dovesse affermare che gli effetti dell’aumento dei prezzi dei beni agricoli rischiano di ripercuotersi sul livello dell’inflazione, allora tale atteggiamento sarebbe descritto come “hawkish“, dalla linea dura.

Hawkish è simile a bullish. Ma laddove bullish descrive una visione ottimistica nei confronti di una economia o di un bene, hawkish descrive un atteggiamento pessimista nei confronti dell’evolversi (al rialzo) dell’inflazione.

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Stati Uniti, Trump

America. Fed ha aumentato i tassi dal 2.25% al 2.5%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-12-19.

FED 001

Se è vero che gli Stati Uniti avrebbero un disperato bisogno di mantenere bassi i tassi di interesse per facilitare il sistema economico, è altrettanto vero che le motivazioni della Fed all’aumento dei tassi sono più che motivate.

Sia la componente politica sia quella finanziaria e monetaria hanno le loro buone ragioni, e trovare un accordo è virtualmente impossibile.

Come al solito, qualsiasi scelta avrebbe sollevato un polverone di critiche e sembrerebbe essere impossibile trovare commenti equilibrati, non partigiani.

«GDP is now seen as rising 3 percent for the full year of 2018, down one-tenth of a percentage point from September, and 2.3 percent for 2019»

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«The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate a quarter-point but lowered its projections for future hikes»

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«The Fed take the target range for its benchmark funds rate to 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent»

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«The move marked the fourth increase this year and the ninth since it began normalizing rates in December 2015»

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«Officials, though, now project two hikes next year, which is a reduction but still ahead of current market pricing of no additional moves next year»

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«The Committee judges that some further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term»

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Gli aumenti dei tassi di interesse erano noti e programmati da tempo.

I mercati se ne diano una ragione.


Cnbc. 2018-12-19. Fed hikes rate, lowers 2019 projection to 2 increases

– The Fed take the target range for its benchmark funds rate to 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent.

– Central bank officials now forecast two hikes next year, down from three rate raises previously projected.

– However, the Fed continues to include in its statement that further “gradual” rate hikes would be appropriate.

– GDP is now seen as rising 3 percent for the full year of 2018, down one-tenth of a percentage point from September, and 2.3 percent for 2019, a 0.2 percent point reduction.

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The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate a quarter-point but lowered its projections for future hikes.

As markets had expected, the central bank took the target range for its benchmark funds rate to 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent. The move marked the fourth increase this year and the ninth since it began normalizing rates in December 2015. It came despite President Donald Trump’s tweets against rate hikes.

Officials, though, now project two hikes next year, which is a reduction but still ahead of current market pricing of no additional moves next year.

The language in the post-meeting statement was not entirely dovish. The committee continued to include a statement that more rate hikes would be appropriate, though it did soften the tone a bit.

“The Committee judges that some further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term,” the statement said.

The only changes from the November post-meeting statement was adding “some” to describe the trajectory of future rate moves and said it now “judges” rate increases to be appropriate whereas November’s said “expects.”

Along with the hike, investors had been keyed on where the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets rates, expected to go in the future. Heading into this week’s two-day meeting, the committee had been pointing to three more moves in 2019 and possibly another one in 2020.

That changed amid tightening financial conditions and worries that the Fed was moving too quickly. Stock indexes have moved into correction territory and are largely negative for the year.

In one tip to those looking for a more dovish outlook, the committee assured that it will “continue to monitor global economic and financial developments and assess their implications for the economic outlook.”

That essentially reinforces recent public statements from Fed officials that they will be data dependent when making future rate decisions.

The FOMC also lowered its outlook for the long-run funds rate, from 3 percent in the September forecast to 2.8 percent this month. The 2019 estimate declined to 2.9 percent from 3.1 percent and both 2020 and 2021 dropped to 3.1 percent from 3.4 percent.

The funds rate is tied to most consumer debt, particularly credit cards and adjustable-rate loans.

Lowered GDP outlook

There were no dissents in the vote to hike, but the “dot plot” of individual committee members’ estimates show some division among members. Six still see three increases next year, down from nine in September, when officials last released their projections. Sixteen members in all submitted dots at this week’s meeting.

Along with the tempered estimates for rates, the committee nudged lower its projections both for GDP and inflation.

GDP is now seen as rising 3 percent for the full year of 2018, down one-tenth of a percentage point from September, and 2.3 percent for 2019, a 0.2 percent point reduction. However, officials took up their long-run estimates, to 1.9 percent from 1.8 percent in September.

Overall, though, Fed officials expressed little worry about economic growth. GDP gains have averaged 3.3 percent per quarter this year, and the Atlanta Fed is forecasting a 2.9 percent increase in the fourth quarter.

Where the market is worried that the U.S. might be infected by a global slowdown, the FOMC statement showed little concern.

Officials continued to describe economic growth as “rising at a strong rate” and left descriptions of other parts of economic activity unchanged as well.

The summary of economic projections did note that headline inflation is expected to grow less quickly than the September estimate, slipping to 1.9 percent from 2.1 percent in 2018 and to 1.9 percent from 2 percent in 2019. The longer-run expectation remains 2 percent.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Stati Uniti, Trump

Fed Atlanta. Pil T3 proiettato al 4.4%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-09-16.

FED 001

La Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ha rilasciato il Report «GDP Now».

The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a “nowcast” of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model.

Recent forecasts for the GDPNow model are available here. More extensive numerical details—including underlying source data, forecasts, and model parameters—are available as a separate spreadsheet. You can also view an archive of recent commentaries from GDPNow estimates.

Latest forecast: 4.4 percent — September 14, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.4 percent on September 14, up from 3.8 percent on September 11. The nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.0 percent to 3.7 percent after this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning’s industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

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Il dato ha ben pochi commenti.

Essendo la prospezione del 14 settembre, sembrerebbe essere verosimile che nei restanti 14 giorni questa stima non debba variare di molto, forse, qualche decimo di punto percentuale.

Gran bel risultato dell’Amministrazione Trump, che si appresta ad affrontare le elezioni di midterm avendo in mano risultati concreti.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Stati Uniti

Jackson Hole. Il discorso di Mr Jerome Powell.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-08-25.

FED 001

«In his first speech as Fed Chairman at the economic conference in Jackson Hole, Jerome Powell’s speech resulted in the U.S. dollar trading lower and a strong upside move in gold pricing»

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«My colleagues and I believe that this gradual process of normalization remains appropriate»

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«His statements strongly confirm a continuation of quantitative normalization through a series of gradual quarter-point rate hikes, along with the reduction of the central bank’s massive assets, which swelled to $4.5 trillion at its peak»

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«Currently, it is believed that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points (¼%) two more times this year. In addition, the CME’s FedWatch tool predicts that there is a 96% probability of a rate hike in November and a 60% probability that there will be a final rate hike in 2018 occurring in December»

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Kitco. 2018-08-24. Powell Puts Pressure on the Dollar

In his first speech as Fed Chairman at the economic conference in Jackson Hole, Jerome Powell’s speech resulted in the U.S. dollar trading lower and a strong upside move in gold pricing.

In his speech, Powell said that the central bank’s gradual path of interest rate hikes remains “’appropriate’ as there does not seem to be “an elevated risk of overheating.”

Acutely aware that the Federal Reserve is playing an extremely important balancing act between moving towards a monetary policy of normalization, while not putting a damper on economic growth in the United States, Chairman Powell continues to thread the economic needle.

In his speech, Powell said, “My colleagues and I believe that this gradual process of normalization remains appropriate.”

Most importantly he maintains a high level of confidence in continued and robust economic growth. “With solid household and business confidence, healthy levels of job creation, rising incomes, and fiscal stimulus arriving, there is good reason to expect this strong performance will continue.”

His statements strongly confirm a continuation of quantitative normalization through a series of gradual quarter-point rate hikes, along with the reduction of the central bank’s massive assets, which swelled to $4.5 trillion at its peak.

Currently, it is believed that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points (¼%) two more times this year. In addition, the CME’s FedWatch tool predicts that there is a 96% probability of a rate hike in November and a 60% probability that there will be a final rate hike in 2018 occurring in December.

The net result of his speech today were strong gains in the U.S. equity markets, intense selling pressure in the U.S. dollar, and a substantial upside move in gold.

As of 4:30 PM Eastern standard time, the dollar index is trading down 0.54 % and is currently fixed at 95.07. Gold futures have gained $18.20 (+1.52%), and basis the most active December Comex contract is presently settled at $1,212.20.

Today’s gains in gold are the result of both dollar weakness and traders bidding the precious yellow metal higher. According to the KGX (Kitco Gold Index), spot gold is currently trading at $1,205 per ounce, up $20.40 on the day. Approximately one-quarter of today’s gains can be attributed to a weaker U.S. dollar (+5.40), while traders buying gold accounts for the remaining increases (+$14.95).

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Stati Uniti, Trump

Fed. Beige Book. Le imprese stentano a trovare personale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-07-19.

FED 001

La Fed ha pubblicato il Beige Book di Luglio.

«Economic activity continued to expand across the United States, with 10 of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts reporting moderate or modest growth. The outliers were the Dallas District, which reported strong growth driven in part by the energy sector, and the St. Louis District where growth was described as slight. Manufacturers in all Districts expressed concern about tariffs and in many Districts reported higher prices and supply disruptions that they attributed to the new trade policies. All Districts reported that labor markets were tight and many said that the inability to find workers constrained growth. Consumer spending was up in all Districts with particular strength in Dallas and Richmond. Contacts reported higher input prices and shrinking margins. Six Districts specifically mentioned trucking capacity as an issue and attributed it to a shortage of commercial drivers. Contacts in several Districts reported slow growth in existing home sales but were not overly concerned about rising interest rates. Commercial real estate was largely unchanged.»

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«Employment continued to rise at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts. Labor markets were described as tight, with most Districts reporting firms had difficulty finding qualified labor. Shortages were cited across a wide range of occupations, including highly skilled engineers, specialized construction and manufacturing workers, IT professionals, and truck drivers; some Districts indicated labor shortages were constraining growth. Districts noted firms were adding work hours, strengthening retention efforts, partnering with local schools, and converting temporary workers to permanent, as well as raising compensation to attract and retain employees. On balance, wage increases were modest to moderate, with some differences across sectors; a couple of Districts cited a pickup in the pace of wage growth.»

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Il report è molto dettagliato, distretto per distretto.

Di rilevanza federale emergono alcuni elementi.

– Il sistema economico è in crescita: “Economic activity continued to expand across the United States, with 10 of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts reporting moderate or modest growth”

– “Commercial real estate was largely unchanged”

– “Employment continued to rise at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts”

– “most Districts reporting firms had difficulty finding qualified labor”

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Il tasso di occupazione è così alto e quello di disoccupazione così basso, che molte aziende hanno difficoltà a trovare lavoratori qualificati. Sono il segno inequivocabile del buono stato di salute del sistema economico.

Questi due dati sembrerebbero essere di particolare importanza. Infatti, all’interno dei numerosi indici econometrici, il numero degli occupati e quello dei disoccupati hanno la caratteristica di essere facili da raccogliere senza incorrere in particolari errori, e non sono il frutto di calcoli intermedi.

Fed. Beige Book – July 18. 2018.

This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston based on information collected on or before July 9, 2018. This document summarizes comments received from contacts outside the Federal Reserve System and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.

Overall Economic Activity

wconomic activity continued to expand across the United States, with 10 of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts reporting moderate or modest growth. The outliers were the Dallas District, which reported strong growth driven in part by the energy sector, and the St. Louis District where growth was described as slight. Manufacturers in all Districts expressed concern about tariffs and in many Districts reported higher prices and supply disruptions that they attributed to the new trade policies. All Districts reported that labor markets were tight and many said that the inability to find workers constrained growth. Consumer spending was up in all Districts with particular strength in Dallas and Richmond. Contacts reported higher input prices and shrinking margins. Six Districts specifically mentioned trucking capacity as an issue and attributed it to a shortage of commercial drivers. Contacts in several Districts reported slow growth in existing home sales but were not overly concerned about rising interest rates. Commercial real estate was largely unchanged.

Employment and Wages

Employment continued to rise at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts. Labor markets were described as tight, with most Districts reporting firms had difficulty finding qualified labor. Shortages were cited across a wide range of occupations, including highly skilled engineers, specialized construction and manufacturing workers, IT professionals, and truck drivers; some Districts indicated labor shortages were constraining growth. Districts noted firms were adding work hours, strengthening retention efforts, partnering with local schools, and converting temporary workers to permanent, as well as raising compensation to attract and retain employees. On balance, wage increases were modest to moderate, with some differences across sectors; a couple of Districts cited a pickup in the pace of wage growth.

Prices
Prices increased in all Districts at a pace that was modest to moderate on average; reports showed upticks in inflation in several Districts. The prices of key inputs rose further, including fuel, construction materials, freight, and metals; a few Districts described these input price pressures as elevated or strong. Tariffs contributed to the increases for metals and lumber. However, the extent of pass-through from input to consumer prices remained slight to moderate. Movements in agricultural commodities prices were mixed across products and Districts. Pricing pressures are expected to intensify further moving forward in some Districts, while in others the outlook is for stable price increases at a modest to moderate pace.

Highlights by Federal Reserve District

Boston
Business activity continued to expand at a moderate pace, with contacted manufacturers, retailers, hotels, and software and IT firms reporting year-over-year increases in revenues. Some contacts saw higher prices and lower margins. Contacts reported difficulty hiring in skilled occupations.

New York

The regional economy continued to expand at a moderate pace, and labor markets have remained tight. Input price increases have remained fairly widespread, and selling prices continued to increase moderately. Housing markets have continued to firm, on balance, while commercial real estate markets have softened a bit.

Philadelphia
Economic activity continued to expand at a modest pace. With tightening labor markets, job growth also remained modest, but wages are now rising moderately. On balance, contacts continued to observe modest price increases with few concerns for future inflation. Notably, nonresidential construction activity has begun to decline from its prior high levels.

Cleveland
The District economy grew moderately. Labor markets tightened, with wage pressures noted broadly. Rising fuel and metals costs are pressuring manufacturers, construction firms, and transportation companies. Stronger confidence in the economy boosted demand in nonfinancial services and the retail sector. Construction activity remained strong.

Richmond
The regional economy grew at a moderate rate. Manufacturing and retail sales strengthened, but firms in both sectors faced transportation constraints and rising input costs. Trucking firms saw record demand, which was partially unmet due to the driver shortage. Port activity remained strong. Labor demand increased moderately, and some firms reported shortages. Price growth accelerated slightly but remained moderate, overall.

Atlanta
Economic activity modestly expanded since the previous report. The labor market remained tight. Reports of wage growth were mixed. Some commodity input prices continued to increase. Consumer spending improved since the last report. Nonresidential construction increased; however, multifamily construction showed signs of slowing. Manufacturing activity grew.

Chicago
Growth in economic activity slowed to a modest pace. Manufacturing production increased moderately, while employment, consumer spending, business spending, and construction and real estate activity grew modestly. Wages and prices increased modestly, and financial conditions improved modestly. The outlook for agriculture income dimmed some.

St. Louis

Economic conditions improved slightly. Labor market conditions remained tight and wage growth was modest. Local contacts reported robust increases in shipping costs across all sectors due to higher fuel prices and driver shortages. Businesses’ reports on the impact of tariffs have varied by industry.

Minneapolis
Economic activity in the Ninth District grew moderately, led by strong growth in manufacturing. Hiring demand remained strong, but workers were harder to find. Wages grew moderately with some signs of stronger growth among union wages. Professional services firms saw growth across the board, and lodging demand appeared robust heading into the summer tourism season.

Kansas City

Economic activity expanded moderately since the previous survey, and growth was expected to continue in the months ahead. Most sectors expanded, including a slight pickup in energy activity, modestly higher consumer spending and business services, moderately stronger real estate activity, and continued robust gains in the manufacturing sector. Capital spending plans across the District were positive.

Dallas
Economic activity continued to grow at a solid pace. Manufacturing output rose, and broad-based expansion in the services and energy sectors continued. Retail spending rose while drought conditions became more widespread. Hiring remained solid despite a tight labor market, and wage and price pressures stayed elevated. Expectations regarding future business activity were optimistic, although uncertainty arising from U.S. trade policy weighed on outlooks.

San Francisco

Economic activity in the Twelfth District continued to expand at a moderate pace. Conditions in the labor market remained tight, and price inflation increased moderately. Sales of retail goods picked up slightly, and activity in the consumer and business services sectors edged down. Activity in the manufacturing sector and in residential and commercial real estate markets was solid. Lending activity ticked up moderately.

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Summary of Economic Activity

First District economic activity continued to expand at a moderate pace, with nearly all responding retailers, manufacturers, hospitality providers, and software and IT firms citing year-over-year increases in sales and revenues in recent weeks. Residential real estate markets saw price increases but fewer closed sales although contacts reported higher listings and expected higher sales in the future. Commercial real estate markets were generally expanding, although growth in retail was mixed. Hotels reported slower growth which they attributed to the expansion of on-line short term rentals. Contacts across a range of industries said trucking capacity continued to be a major issue. Overall, the outlook continued to be positive. Contacts expressed concerns about tariffs but none cited trade issues as affecting demand or hiring and capital expenditure plans.

Employment and Wages

Many responding firms have done some hiring; most reported tight labor markets and modest increases in pay. Retail contacts reported that labor supply was tight and one contact said labor costs were up 10 percent over the previous year. All surveyed manufacturers were hiring or maintaining current levels of employment. Manufacturing contacts said the labor market was tight, but the exceptional difficulties were mostly in highly skilled areas like engineering. Labor shortages continued to be an issue in the hospitality industry, particularly in seasonal destinations like Cape Cod. Contacts in the software and information technology areas expressed concerns about restrictive immigration policies.

Prices
Most respondents reported modest increases in prices. Although contacts were concerned about the effect of tariffs, none of our contacts reported any material impact so far. Higher freight costs continued to be an issue across a wide array of industries, with the shortage of commercial truck drivers being cited as an important factor. Several manufacturing contacts said that they were only able to pass through a portion of the higher costs to customers. As a result, margins were declining. House prices continued to rise throughout the region.

Retail and Tourism

The retailers consulted for this round reported recent comparable-store sales gains ranging from 3 percent to 10 percent year-over-year. One firm noted that higher freight costs contributed to higher overhead costs and that a shortage of workers led to a 10 percent increase in labor costs compared to a year ago. Despite these higher operating costs, the retail outlook for the rest of the year remains positive, provided that consumer sentiment does not abate.

Two travel industry sources reported that business was either flat or slightly down in late May, but appeared to have rebounded strongly in June. Both contacts reported that traditional lodging providers, such as hotels and bed-and-breakfast establishments, were encountering increased competition from online platforms offering short-term rentals. This shift in consumer preferences was expected to continue. Labor shortages continued to be a concern, and in places like the Outer Cape, the average hourly wage for some low-skilled hospitality workers was reportedly about $20 per hour. Through May, domestic travel to Boston is up 8.1 percent year-over-year, while international travel is up 7.1 percent year-over-year. The outlook is positive, but there was some concern that escalating trade tensions could put a damper on international tourism to the United States.

Manufacturing and Related Services

Of nine firms we contacted this cycle, all but one reported higher sales. The one exception was a toy manufacturer and our contact said that the weakness was expected and attributable to the closure of a major toy retailer. While several contacts expressed concern about the effect of the trade war on sales, none reported any sales declines as a result. Four of our contacts said that costs were rising faster than sales revenue. Rising costs were attributed to raw material prices and a lack of trucking capacity. One contact in the container industry said that they had planned to increase output and hire additional workers but had not because of delays in the delivery of new capital equipment.

Software and Information Technology Services

Software and IT contacts in the First District continued to see activity expanding steadily. Revenue was up 3 percent to 10 percent year-over-year in the first half of the year. Several noted increases in margins, despite some seasonal sluggishness in demand. Contacts attributed growth in margins to internal productivity improvements. Firms across the sector expressed concern about acquiring and retaining talent in the tech industry. Further, contacts unanimously expressed anxiety about shocks to the broader economy, such as the potential for changes in trade, tariffs, immigration, war, and the stock market. Firms do not expect changes in headcounts or wages in the short-run, but some noted upcoming and potential capital investments. Overall, contacts felt positive about their progress thus far and optimistic about the rest of the year.

Commercial Real Estate

Commercial real estate market conditions were described as stable or improving in recent weeks. Although mixed across locations and property types, activity levels on balance were moderate to robust. Boston area contacts described the city’s office market as strong by historical standards, with low and falling vacancy rates, robust rents that increased slightly, and record-high sales prices for select buildings. Industrial leasing activity in the Boston area was seen as stable, although one contact reported that sales demand for warehouse space near Boston surged on the expectation of rising tenant demand. In Providence office leasing activity was steady at a moderate pace amid falling vacancy rates and rising rents, but industrial leasing activity was hampered by that market’s 1 percent vacancy rate. Construction activity across multiple property types maintained a strong pace in Boston and Providence, and increased further in the Portland area, but remained scant in the Hartford area. Contacts expect stable or improving commercial real estate activity moving forward, although most cited downside risks, such as rising interest rates, trade wars, and local labor shortages.

Residential Real Estate

Entering the summer, the residential real estate market in the First District continued to display a sellers’ market environment, highlighting high demand and increasing prices. Closed sales were down in all reporting areas but pending sales increased. Contacts cited insufficient inventory as the reason for the drop in sales but remained optimistic about the outlook on the heels of strong buyer demand and increasing new listings. A representative from Rhode Island noted that “Competition is fierce and buyers are finding themselves in a race to the finish line. Inventory is so tight that properties are being sold as soon as they go on the market, often in multiple bid situations.” Median sales price increased in all areas but Vermont. Contacts expressed concerns about the rapid price appreciation as many potential buyers were priced out of the market. Contacts said that borrowers, despite high prices and changes to the tax code, were still willing and able to finance purchases.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Summary of Economic Activity

Economic activity in the Second District has continued to expand at a moderate pace since the last report. The labor market has remained tight, while wage growth has mostly stayed steady. Input price increases have remained fairly widespread, and consumer price inflation continued to run a bit higher than earlier this year. Activity in the manufacturing and distribution industries grew at a fairly brisk pace, while growth in most service industries has been more subdued. Consumer spending has been steady to up slightly in recent weeks, with tourism remaining fairly robust. Housing markets have been somewhat stronger, on balance, while commercial real estate markets have generally softened. Finally, banks reported continued growth in loan demand and little change in delinquency rates.

Employment and Wages

The labor market has remained tight across the District. Businesses reported particular trouble filling senior positions and finding technically skilled workers, especially in IT. One business contact observed that almost all job-seekers are already employed. A New York City employment agency noted that clients have had difficulty adjusting to a city law prohibiting prospective employers from asking about salary history or using it as a guide to compensating new hires.

Hiring activity has been steady overall but mixed by industry. Business contacts in manufacturing, wholesale, retail, and finance reported a pickup in hiring activity, while those engaged in information and professional & business services noted some pullback in hiring. Contacts in the transportation industry noted further shrinkage in their workforce. Separately, a payroll service firm observed that job growth at small businesses has slowed somewhat recently. A major utility firm remarked that devoting more resources to vocational training and building relationships with local high schools and colleges, has made it easier for them to fill job openings.

Wage growth has generally remained steady overall but somewhat more brisk than last year. Wages were reported to be flat in the education & health and transportation sectors but rising in other sectors. The most widespread gains were reported in retail & wholesale trade and leisure & hospitality.

Prices
Businesses reported ongoing widespread hikes in input prices. The most widespread increases were in retail & wholesale trade, education & health, and real estate. Manufacturers and leisure & hospitality firms noted some diminution in input price pressures since the prior report. Contacts in almost all sectors anticipated further increases in the months ahead.

As for selling prices, wholesalers continued to report widespread price hikes, and businesses in leisure & hospitality and real estate noted some acceleration. Prices for Broadway theater tickets rose fairly sharply in June and were up nearly 15 percent from a year earlier. Retail contacts noted somewhat less discounting than a year ago, resulting in a modest hike in effective selling prices. Similarly, auto dealers reported some increase in average used car prices and fewer incentive offers on new vehicles. Businesses in other industries reported that prices were mostly stable. Looking ahead, a sizable share of firms in leisure & hospitality, wholesale trade, and real estate said they anticipate price hikes.

Consumer Spending

Retail sales were steady to up slightly in May and June running roughly on plan. A major retail chain noted that sales were on plan and up modestly from a year earlier, with New York City stores continuing to post relatively strong results, in good part driven by tourism.

New vehicle sales in upstate New York were soft in May and June, continuing to run short of year-earlier levels. Sales of used cars have been more robust and continued to rise modestly. Vehicle inventories remained at or above desired levels. Dealers indicated that retail and wholesale credit conditions remained in good shape.

Consumer confidence in the Middle Atlantic states (NY, NJ, PA) edged up to a cyclical high in June, led by an historically positive assessment of the job market.

Manufacturing and Distribution

Both manufacturers and wholesale distributors indicated that activity continued to expand at a brisk pace since the last report. Transportation firms reported more subdued growth. Regarding the near-term business outlook, contacts in the wholesale and transportation sectors continued to express widespread optimism. Manufacturers remained optimistic, on balance, but have become less so than earlier in the year. A number of manufacturing contacts remarked that tariffs have raised their costs. Moreover, uncertainty about future trade policy was cited as a major concern, particularly in parts of upstate New York, where there is substantial trade with Canada.

Services
Service-sector firms continued to report minimal to modest growth in activity. Contacts in professional & business services, education & health, and leisure & hospitality indicated modest growth, while those in the information industry continued to report flat activity. Looking ahead, leisure & hospitality businesses remained glum about near-term prospects, but contacts in the other service industries expressed fairly broad optimism.

Tourism has been fairly robust in recent weeks. New York City hotels reported a moderate pickup in both occupancy rates and revenues. Similarly, Broadway theaters reported a modest pickup in attendance and a marked pickup in revenues, which were up roughly 16 percent from a year earlier in May and June.

Real Estate and Construction

Housing markets across the District have been mixed but, on balance, somewhat stronger since the last report. Across much of the District, a limited supply of homes on the market has restrained sales activity and boosted prices. The market in the Buffalo metro area has been particularly robust, with strong demand and lean inventories driving up prices and producing many bidding wars. One exception to this trend has been the Manhattan co-op and condo market, where inventories have risen, sales activity has receded, and prices have been flat to modestly lower–partly attributed to some drop-off in investor purchases and foreign buyers. In and around New York City, the high end of the sales market continues to lag. One industry contact surmised that more limited deductibility of homeowner costs under the new tax law has been a factor in restraining demand.

The apartment rental market has been mixed. Effective rents are flat to down modestly across New York City, though demand for larger rental apartments has picked up recently–reportedly reflecting both rent reductions and a shift away from homeownership. In northern New Jersey, upstate New York, and the suburbs around New York City, however, demand has been robust and rents have continued to trend up moderately.

Commercial real estate markets have been steady to softer. Office availability rates were steady to up slightly, and asking rents continued to drift down across downstate New York, though they have risen modestly across northern New Jersey and upstate New York. The market for retail space continued to slacken, except in upstate New York, where vacancy rates were steady and rents were up moderately from a year ago. The industrial market continued to strengthen in northern New Jersey but has stabilized elsewhere across the District.

New multi-family construction starts have been steady to somewhat weaker. Office construction has picked up slightly across upstate New York but has remained moribund across the rest of the District. New industrial development has slowed as well. While new construction–both residential and commercial–has been sluggish, ongoing construction activity has remained strong.

Banking and Finance

Small to medium-sized banks in the District reported increased demand for consumer loans, residential mortgages, and commercial mortgages, but no change in demand for C&I loans and refinancing activity. Bankers reported tightening credit standards for commercial loans and mortgages. Banks noted an increase in the average deposit rate and narrowing loan spreads across all categories. Finally, banks reported lower delinquency rates for C&I loans but no change in delinquencies across all other loan categories.

Pubblicato in: Finanza e Sistema Bancario, Stati Uniti

Deutsche Bank US non supera gli stress test della Fed.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-06-30.

A statue is pictured next to the logo of Germany's Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt

Deutsche Bank è da tempo agli onori della cronica, ma ne avrebbe fatto volentieri a meno.

In parole povere, sta andando di male in peggio.

Deutsche Bank. Asset azionario e terrorismo. I proprietari.

Deutsche Bank. Il Qatar mira al 25%. HBJ

Deutsche Bank. Mai mettere i tedeschi spalle al muro.

Guerra civile americana. Liberals democratici e Deutsche Bank.

Deutsche Bank tumbles down private bank rankings after tough 2016

Deutsche Bank fined by regulators over money laundering claims

Germania. Deutsche Bank esclusa dal novero delle banche mondiali.

Deutsche Bank AG. Un nuovo buco da 2.2 mld. -6.29%.

Deutsche Bank. Le cattive notizie diventano pessime. Quei 35 mld Usd ….

* * * * * * *

«Deutsche Bank’s US division has failed the second round of the Federal Reserve’s annual two-stage stress tests, designed to assess how well the sector could withstand another financial crisis»

*

«The German lender suffered from “widespread and critical deficiencies” in parts of its business, the Fed said»

*

Nessuno intende fare allarmismi, sia ben chiaro. D’altra parte, Deutsche Bank sarebbe in compagnia di Goldman Sachs e Morgan Stanley, ma il fatto che i lebbrosi siano tre invece che uno non è certo motivo di particolare gioia.

«The Fed measures whether banks are holding sufficient capital to cope with a recession and in the second part of the process it focuses on banks’ “capital plans” such as how much cash they intend to return to shareholders»

*

Treccani definisce in questi termini il vocabolo ‘prudenza‘.

«L’atteggiamento cauto ed equilibrato di chi, intuendo la presenza di un pericolo o prevedendo le conseguenze dei suoi atti, si comporta in modo da non correre inutili rischi e da evitare a sé e ad altri qualsiasi possibile danno»

Di prudenza non è mai morto nessuno.


Bbc. 2018-06-29. Deutsche Bank’s US unit fails Fed’s stress test

Deutsche Bank’s US division has failed the second round of the Federal Reserve’s annual two-stage stress tests, designed to assess how well the sector could withstand another financial crisis.

The German lender suffered from “widespread and critical deficiencies” in parts of its business, the Fed said.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were only granted “conditional” passes.

But 31 of the 35 banks tested were given the all-clear.

Stress tests were introduced in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and every year America’s central bank, the Federal Reserve, puts the country’s banks, including foreign subsidiaries operating in the country, through their paces.

The Fed measures whether banks are holding sufficient capital to cope with a recession and in the second part of the process it focuses on banks’ “capital plans” such as how much cash they intend to return to shareholders. However this is the first year that the results of the US units of foreign banks have been publicly released.

All of the 35 largest banks subject to the tests passed the first part of the tests last week.

But the Fed found Deutsche Bank’s US arm had “material weaknesses in the firm’s data capabilities and controls supporting its capital planning process, as well as weaknesses in its approaches and assumptions used to forecast revenues and losses under stress”.

The verdict is another blow for the troubled German lender whose financial health has been under the spotlight recently. And it will require the bank to make changes to the way it operates in the US.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were given passes, but will not be permitted to increase the amount they return to shareholders beyond levels inline with the last couple of years, in order to bolster their capital cushions.

The Fed said it was also granting a conditional pass to Boston-based State Street, which will be required to take additional steps to manage and analyse its exposure to losses.

Last year was the first time all banks passed the second round of the tests.

The second part of the tests is closely watched because it determines how much firms can return to shareholders in the form of items like share buybacks and dividends.

‘One-off event’

The Fed said it had granted the conditional pass to Goldman and Morgan Stanley because the companies’ results had been skewed by tax changes passed last year.

The tax overhaul lowered the corporate rate from 35% to 21%, but led to larger-than-usual one-off tax bills for many banks, as a result of other changes to how losses and overseas profits are taxed.

“This one-time reduction does not reflect a firm’s performance under stress and firms can expect higher post-tax earnings going forward,” the Fed said.

Despite the restrictions, Goldman will still be permitted to spend up to $6.3bn on share buybacks and dividends this year.

Morgan Stanley said it planned to return $6.8bn to shareholders.

Making progress

The decision is the latest blow for troubled Deutsche Bank. Last month the firm announced more than 7,000 job cuts and its credit rating was cut by Standard & Poor’s. The bank reported an annual loss of €500m (£438m) at the end of February.

Deutsche said its US division had “made significant investments to improve its capital planning capabilities as well as controls and infrastructure.”

“Deutsche Bank USA continues to make progress across a range of programmes and will continue to build on these efforts and to engage constructively with regulators to meet both internal and regulatory expectations,” the bank said.

The bank will be required to improve its operations, risk management and governance as a result of the test-failure. It will not be able to make distributions to its German parent firm without the Fed’s approval.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Stati Uniti, Unione Europea

Eur/Usd 1.2044. La voce di Mr Trump è sempre più forte e chiara.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-08-29. h 09:58.

2017-08-29__EurUsd__001

Il 2 marzo il rapporto Eur/Usd valeva 1.05. Oggi ventinove agosto alle ore italiane 09:58 vale 1.2044.

In sei mesi il dollaro americano si è svalutato di quasi il 20%, e tutto darebbe l’impressione che il processo svalutativo non si fermerà molto presto.

Mr Trump sta facendo gli interessi degli americani che lo hanno eletto: un dollaro basso facilita grandemente le esportazioni americane, ma nel contempo frantuma come un’immane mole molti dei trattati commerciali in essere, che davano per scontato la stabilità dei cambi.

L’Eurozona, che puntava molto sul deprezzamento dell’euro, si ritrova adesso a dover cercare di contenere un fenomeno che la penalizza severamente: le sue merci sui mercati esteri sono caricate da un onere del 20%.

Di fatto, Mr Trump ha instaurato un dazio sulle merci europee. Ed una dazio molto salato e generalizzato.

*

Ci si rende conto che da qualche tempo insistiamo nei report sui valori dei cambi, ma ciò è dovuto alle dimensioni dei fenomeni in atto, ogni giorno si scambiano sui mercati circa 5.3 trilioni di dollari americani, sia all’assordante silenzio dei media e della banche centrali dell’Unione Europea.

Fate un po’ il conto di quanti miliardi siano il 20% di 5.3 trilioni di dollari.

Vi sarebbe la netta impressione che molti stiano sottovalutando severamente quanto sta accadendo e, soprattutto, gli effetti nel tempo.

*

Trump. Export tedesco e banche nei triboli. – Handelsblatt

Mr Trump da la buona notte a Frau Merkel. Eur/Usd 1.1976.

Germania. Vdma. Il furor teutonico sta crescendo. – Handelsblatt

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Questa è però una lezione più politica che economica che gli Stati Uniti stanno impartendo all’Unione Europea ed all’Eurozona.

Si stanno pagando le posizioni oltranziste di Mr Macron e di Frau Merkel.

Orgoglio ed utopie hanno sempre un prezzo salato.

Ma chi mai si credevano di essere?

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Cina, Russia, Senza categoria, Unione Europea

EurUsd 1.1821. Effetto Quanzhou.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-08-21.

2017-08-21__18-48__eurusd

Il problema è semplice.

L’Eurozona non ha la forza finanziaria necessaria e sufficiente per tenere fisso il cambio della propria valuta.

In questo momento alla Banca Centrale Europea converrebbe avere un euro debole, ma il mondo non glielo permette.

Non è solo la forza degli Stati Uniti, anche il resto del mondo riunito a Quanzhou vuole imporre un euro forte.

2017-08-21__18-48__eurusd__002

Nulla vieta di pensare che alla fine anche la coriacea Germania si possa rendere conto di quanto poco conta nel contesto mondiale, ed alla fine si rimetta alle decisioni altrui: in politica tutto è possibile. Ma se Frau Merkel vuole proseguire sulla strada percorsa non si intravede proprio nulla di buono.

Cina. Quanzhou. I Brics decidono cosa farsene dell’Occidente.

Quanto valgono gli Stati Uniti, i G7, l’Eurozona ed i Brics?

Da un punto di vista meramente economico, se si considera il pil per potere di acquisto, il mondo genera 108,036,500 milioni Usd, la Cina 17,617,300 (16.31%) e gli Stati Uniti 17,418,00 (16.12%). L’Eurozona rende conto di 11,249,482 (10.41%) ed il Gruppo dei G7 di 31.825,293 (29.46%). Però i Brics conteggiano un pil ppa di 32,379,625 Usd, ossia il 29.97% del pil ppa mondiale. I Brics valgono come i paesi del G7.

Di conseguenza, la voce dell’Occidente vale nel mondo al massimo per il 29.46%, ma quella degli Stati Uniti vale solo il 16.12% e quella dell’Eurozona uno scarno 10.41%.

Il pil ppa rende bene l’idea, ma non è l’unico modo di conteggiare. Secondo altre metodiche i Brics varrebbero il 25% dell’economia mondiale e renderebbero conto del 50% della crescita dei sistemi economici. Un risultato molto simile.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Eur/Usd 1.1816. Mr Trump inizia a giocare ben duro.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-07-31.

2017-07-31__EurUsd__001

Il rapporto Eur/Usd era una volta 1.0348. Mica poi tanto tempo fa: qualche mese.

Poi è venuto Mr Trump dicendo: “America First“.

Tutti lo hanno schernito e coperto di contumelie.

Bene.

Ora il dollaro si è indebolito. Continua ad indebolirsi con implacabile discesa: sta stritolando tutte le altre valute, anche quelle degli idealisti mi-spezzo-ma-non-mi-piego.

Sono in molti negli ambienti finanziari a battere i denti: una cosa sono le fluttuazioni del mercato ed un’altra un piano politico. Mr Trump non ha mai dignitosamente proferito parola, ma i fatti sono sotto gli occhi di tutti. Nessuno sa a quale livello Mr Trump darà il segnale di stop. Chi dice 1.5 a fine anno, ma c’è anche chi prospetta di peggio. Al peggio non c’è mai fine.

Il sogno di un euro debole è svanito senza che nessuno abbia osato nemmeno parlarne.

Nella cruda realtà dei fatti, sulla sola piazza di Londra si transa circa un trilione di dollari americani al giorno. Una variazione del 10% significa 100 miliardi. Decidano gli Elettori europei in quali tasche devono confluire: tutto il resto è aria fritta.

La Fed è perfettamente in grado di resistere. Sulle potenzialità di Frankfurt si potrebbero avere molti dubbi.

Così, mentre gli europei si dilettano a parlare di come imporre gli ideali di Frau Merkel al Visegrad oppure di come fare a lasciare i migranti tutti in Italia, l’euro si apprezza ogni giorno che passa. Negli Stati Uniti il Prosecco italiano costa il 20% in più, tanto per gradire. E non raccontiamoci che il prezzo non influenza le scelte.

Signori miei, gli slogan non servono a nulla, nemmeno a tener alto il morale delle truppe. Anzi, alla fine sono irritanti.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Mondiale, Unione Europea

EurUsd 1.1751. Mr Trump inizia a stritolare Frau Merkel ed i suoi ‘valori’.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-07-30.

Donald Trump photographed at Trump Tower in NYC
Donald Trump photographed at the Trump Tower on 5th Ave. in Manhattan, NYC on Monday, September 21, 2015. (Damon Winter/ The New York Times)

«A pensar male si fa peccato, ma spesso ci si azzecca».

Profonda frase del grande Andreotti.

*

Frau Merkel non è la Germania.

La Germania non è l’Unione Europea.

L’Unione Europea non è la Banca Centrale Europea.

La Banca Centrale Europea sembrerebbe non mettercela mica tutta per tenere basse le quotazioni dell’euro.

2017-07-29__EurUsd__001

Si constata come il tre marzo il rapporto Eur/Usd valesse 1.05 mentre il 28 luglio valeva 1.1751. In cinque mesi questo rapporto ha subito sostanziali variazioni e questo trend sembrerebbe dover durare nel tempo. Sotto la condizione che non varino le situazioni al contorno, se questo andamento si riconfermasse, a fine anno il rapporto Eur/Usd potrebbe toccare il valore di 1.30.

Sarebbe ben difficile non vedere dietro a codesta manovra la sapiente mano della Yellen, che è riuscita a deprezzare il dollaro pur lasciando aumentare i tassi di interesse. Così come sarebbe ben difficile non vedere dietro questa manovra un preciso piano politico americano. Volente o nolente, il quadro dirigenziale europeo alla fine sarà obbligato a razionalizzare che con gli Stati Uniti deve collaborare, non fare la fronda.

L’Eurozona non è forte a sufficienza da poter svolgere una politica monetaria indipendente. Più in generale, le sue ambizioni di indipendenza ed opposizione agli Stati Uniti sono mere utopie.  Mr Juncker e Frau Merkel alla fine saranno obbligati dai fatti a comprendere come sia impossibile risolvere i problemi senza tener conto del contesto generale.

*

«Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, wants to see a tighter policy, which is a better fit for the robust economy. Clearly however, the ECB under Draghi’s stewardship has no intentions of altering current policy until inflation moves closer to the ECB’s target of 2 percent» [Fonte]

*

«At the same time, the euro, which has significantly strengthened recently on expectations of the fast curtailment of the QE program in the Eurozone, has a negative impact on inflation expectations. This will make it more difficult for the ECB to make decisions regarding monetary policy. The ECB has repeatedly stressed that to begin the reduction of the program to stimulate the economy of the Eurozone, stable signals of inflation growth in the region are needed. The rate of price growth in the Eurozone last month slowed to 1.3% per annum, being significantly below the target level of the ECB, which is just under 2%. And, according to the leaders of the ECB, the economy of the Eurozone still needs “very significant” incentive measures because of low inflation» [Fonte]

*

«According to the OECD’s calculations, fair value for EUR/USD as defined by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) currently lies at 1.34.  Not all methods suggest that fair value is quite so high.  However, the Bloomberg calculated PPPs based on CPI inflation, PPI inflation and the Big Mac method all suggest that EUR/USD is currently between 0.02% and 18.5% undervalued» [Fonte]

*

The German economy and the dollar-euro exchange rate

«To clarify why Germany has not recorded an upswing in GDP growth recently despite last year’s marked depreciation of the euro against most other world currencies, which – according to economic intuition – should have stimulated the export-oriented German economy.»

*         

Già.

«According to economic intuition», una valuta deprezzata dovrebbe favorire le esportazioni. Al contrario, una valuta forte dovrebbe deprimere le esportazioni.

A quanto potrebbe sembrare, la Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel non è poi così forte da poter imporre a tutti gli altri, a tutto il mondo, la condivisione della sua scala valoriale e dei suoi desiderata.


Bloomberg. 2017-07-28. Dollar Drops for Third Week as Data Underscore Fed Dilemma

– Greenback falls as GDP, ECI miss ests., health care shelved

– Swiss franc and yen extend declines on policy comparisons

*

The dollar was headed for a third straight week of losses as data reinforcing the notion that U.S. inflation pressures are subdued kept the greenback close to a 14-month low.

U.S. economic growth and the employment cost index both missed estimates, while inflation expectations remained muted as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading improved in July. The dollar fell further after North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile, extending losses seen after the GDP data and after Republican efforts to repeal Obamacare failed.

– The Bloomberg dollar index is lower by ~0.3% for the day amid month-end selling pressure and is on track for a weekly decline of a similar magnitude. The dollar is trading close to levels from early May 2016. Flows are muted after a hectic week that saw the euro gain about 0.7% vs the greenback and more than 3% vs the Swiss franc

– Investors continue to adjust positions amid shifting expectations for monetary-policy trajectories among the major central banks. Data Friday showed robust economic growth in some European economies and stronger inflation pressure in Germany. The reports underscored ECB President Draghi’s assertion that the regional economy is on a firm footing with reduced downside risk that should enable policy makers to begin discussions soon on tapering asset purchases

– In the U.S., the data amplified the Fed’s decision Wednesday to acknowledge the persistence of subdued inflation pressures, even as employment continues to climb. While the Fed has raised rates twice this year, markets assign less than 50% odds of a third hike for 2017. In contrast, both the SNB and the BOJ have signaled that their policies will remain on hold for the foreseeable future, the SNB also emphasizing that its currency remains overvalued. As a result, the Swiss franc tumbled vs its G-10 peers on the week; the yen dropped by a smaller amount vs most while gaining against the CHF and the USD

– In Friday trading, EUR/USD was trading ~1.1748 vs a high of 1.1764. It was still below the more-than-two-year peak at 1.1777 reached Thursday that offers nearby technical resistance

– USD/JPY was trading ~110.79 after dropping to a fresh low for the day at 110.67 following the North Korea missile launch. The pair tested technical support in the zone below 110.80 that cushioned during the week as the dollar fell with Treasury yields. The 233-DMA at 110.78 also cushioned the pair in recent sessions and may have added to support Friday, one trader said

– Adding to the greenback’s woes, USD/CAD saw its biggest drop in two weeks to a low of 1.2420, after oil gained and Canadian GDP beat all estimates. The data reinforced expectations that the Bank of Canada will hike again in October after raising rates 25bps on July 12

– The Swiss franc extended its weekly drop versus the euro and the dollar, with EUR/CHF rising above 1.1400 in late afternoon. Traders speculate that some M&A-related CHF selling may have exacerbated the drop in the Swiss currency in recent sessions