Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Blocco Europeo. 2021Q2. Pil -2.5%, occupati -2.1 milioni, comparati con 2019Q4.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-11.

2021-09-08__ Eurostat Pil 001

Molto correttamente, Eurostat riporta le variazioni percentuali sul trimestre precedente.

Infatti, il 2020Q2 fu particolarmente depresso, per cui il rapporto 2021Q2/2020Q2 risulta essere abnormemente elevato, inaffidabile.

Sempre molto correttamente, Eurostat paragona questi macrodati con quelli del 2019Q4, ultimo trimestre prima della crisi pandemica.

«Based on seasonally adjusted figures, GDP volumes were 2.5% and 2.2% below their highest level of the fourth quarter 2019 for the euro area and EU. For the United States, GDP was 0.8% higher than the level of the fourth quarter 2019»

«employment in persons was 2.1 million in the euro area and 2.0 million in the EU below the level of the fourth quarter of 2019»

* * * * * * *


Eurostat ha rilasciato il Report GDP up by 2.2% and employment up by 0.7% in the euro area. In the EU, GDP up by 2.1% and employment up by 0.7%

                         GDP growth in the euro area and the EU

In the second quarter of 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 2.2% in the euro area and by 2.1% in the EU compared with the previous quarter, according to an estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2021, GDP had declined by 0.3% in the euro area and 0.1% in the EU.  

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 14.3% in the euro area and by 13.8% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, after -1.2% in both zones in the previous quarter.

During the second quarter of 2021, GDP in the United States increased by 1.6% compared with the previous quarter (after +1.5% in the first quarter of 2021). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP increased by 12.2% (after +0.5% in the previous quarter).

                         GDP growth by Member State

Ireland (+6.3%) recorded the sharpest increase of GDP compared to the previous quarter, followed by Portugal (+4.9%), Latvia (+4.4%) and Estonia (+4.3%). Declines were observed in Malta (-0.5%) and Croatia (-0.2%).

                         GDP components and contributions to growth

During the second quarter of 2021, household final consumption expenditure increased by 3.7% in the euro area and by 3.5% in the EU (after -2.1% in the euro area and -1.7% in the EU in the previous quarter). Government final consumption expenditure increased by 1.2% in both zones (after -0.5% both in the previous quarter). Gross fixed capital formation increased by 1.1% in the euro area and by 1.0% in the EU (after -0.2% and +0.3% respectively). Exports increased by 2.2% in the euro area and by 1.8% the EU (after +0.7% in both areas). Imports increased by 2.3% in the euro area and by 2.2% in the EU (after +0.4% and +0.6%).

Household final consumption expenditure had strong positive contributions to GDP growth in both the euro area and the EU (+1.9 and +1.7 percentage points – pp, respectively). The contributions from government final expenditure (+0.3 pp in both zones) and gross fixed capital formation (+0.2 pp in both zones) were also positive. The contribution from the external balance was close to neutral for both zones, while the contribution from changes in inventories was slightly negative for the euro area and neutral for the EU.

                         GDP levels in the euro area and EU

Based on seasonally adjusted figures, GDP volumes were 2.5% and 2.2% below their highest level of the fourth quarter 2019 for the euro area and EU. For the United States, GDP was 0.8% higher than the level of the fourth quarter 2019.

                         Employment growth in the euro area and EU

The number of employed persons increased by 0.7% in both the euro area and in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, compared with the previous quarter. In the first quarter of 2021, employment had decreased by 0.2% in both the euro area and the EU.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment increased by 1.8% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, after -1.8% and -1.6% respectively in the first quarter of 2021.

Hours worked increased by 2.7% in the euro area and by 2.4% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, compared with the previous quarter. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year the increases were 17.0% in the euro area and 14.7% in the EU (see annex table on employment in hours worked).

These data provide a picture of labour input consistent with the output and income measure of national accounts.

                         Employment growth in Member States

In the second quarter of 2021, Latvia (+5.7%), Greece (+2.8%), Denmark and Portugal (both +1.9%) recorded the highest growth of employment in persons compared with the previous quarter. Decreases were observed in Estonia (-1.1%) and Spain (-0.9%).

                         Employment levels in the euro area and EU

Based on seasonally adjusted figures, Eurostat estimates that in the second quarter of 2021, 207.5 million people were employed in the EU, of which 159.0 million were in the euro area.

In relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, employment in persons was 2.1 million in the euro area and 2.0 million in the EU below the level of the fourth quarter of 2019.

                         Evolution of labour productivity in the euro area and EU

The combination of GDP and employment data allows an estimation of labour productivity. The analysis of growth compared to the same quarter of the previous year shows that productivity growth (based on employed persons) fluctuated around 1% for both zones between 2013 and 2018.

In relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, productivity based on persons increased compared to the same quarter of the previous year with 12.2% for the euro area and 11.6% for the EU.

Based on hours worked, productivity compared to the same quarter of the previous year decreased by 1.5% for the euro area and increased by 0.3% for the EU.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Commercio

Giappone. Luglio21. Import +28.5%, Export +37.0%, su luglio20.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-23.

2021-08-19__ Giappone Import Export 001

Il Ministry of Finance, Trade Statistics of Japan, ha rilasciato il Report July 2021 (Provisional)

Il luglio 2020 fu particolarmente depresso (-19.2%): di conseguenza il rapporto luglio21 / luglio20 è abnormemente elevato.

Si noti come l’Export verso l’Asia (32.5%) abbia superato quello verso gli Stati Uniti (26.8%).

2021-08-19__ Giappone Import Export 002

Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Cina. Luglio21. Macrodati confortanti. – National Bureau of Statistics.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-22.

2021-08-17__ Cina Macrodati 001

Il National Bureau of Statistics of China ha rilasciato il Report

National Economy Sustained the Momentum of Stable Recovery in July.

In July, faced with the impact of multiple factors including the growing external uncertainties and the domestic COVID-19 epidemic and flooding situation, under the strong leadership of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, all regions and departments strictly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, and effectively carried out the macroeconomic policies. As a result, China’s economy growth was in line with expectations, the employment and prices remained generally stable, a basic equilibrium was maintained with regard to the balance of payments and the major macro indicators stayed within a reasonable range. The national economy continued the momentum of stable recovery.

  1. Industrial Production Grew Steadily and High-Tech Manufacturing Industry Demonstrated Strong Momentum of Growth.

In July, the total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 6.4 percent year on year, down by 1.9 percentage points than that of June, and higher than that of the same period in 2019 and 2020; the average two-year growth was 5.6 percent; up by 0.30 percent month on month. In terms of sectors, the value added of mining increased by 0.6 percent year on year; that of manufacturing increased by 6.2 percent year on year; and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water increased by 13.2 percent year on year. The value added of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing grew by 15.6 percent and 6.4 percent year on year respectively, or an average two-year growth of 12.7 percent and 9.7 percent respectively. In term of products, the production of new-energy automobiles, industrial robots, integrated circuits and micro computer equipment grew by 162.7 percent, 42.3 percent, 41.3 percent and 10.3 percent year on year respectively, with the average two-year growth all exceeding 14 percent. Goods for basic consumption enjoyed fast growth. The production of household gas water heater, beverage, and chemical fibers went up by 13.9 percent, 10.1 percent and 9.3 percent year on year respectively. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added of state holding enterprises was up by 7.2 percent year on year; that of share-holding enterprises was up by 7.1 percent year on year; that of enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan was up by 3.8 percent year on year; and that of private enterprises was up by 6.1 percent year on year. The total value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 14.4 percent year on year in the first seven months, with an average two-year growth of 6.7 percent. Specifically, the value added of manufacturing of medicine and that of electrical machinery and apparatus went up by 29.3 percent and 26.2 percent year on year respectively. In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index stood at 50.4 percent, staying above the threshold for seventeen months in a row; the Production and Operation Expectation Index was 57.8 percent.

In the first six months, the profits made by industrial enterprises above the designated size totaled 4,218.3 billion yuan, up by 66.9 percent year on year, or an average two-year growth of 20.6 percent; the profit rate of the business revenue of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 7.11 percent, 1.66 percentage points higher than that of the first six months in 2020.

  1. Service Sector Continued to Recover and Business Revenue of Enterprises Grew Generally Fast.

In July, the Index of Services Production grew by 7.8 percent year on year, down by 3.1 percentage points than that of June and higher than that of the same period in 2019 and 2020; the average two-year growth was 5.6 percent. Of this total, the Index of Services Production of information transmission, software and information technology services went up by 16.9 percent year on year. In the first seven months, the Index of Services Production grew by 19.6 percent year on year, down by 1.9 percentage points than that of the first six months; the average two-year growth was 6.5 percent. By main industries, the Sub-Index of Services Production of 8 industries all maintained positive year-on-year growth. Specifically, the Index of Services Production of information transmission, software and information technology services went up by 21.6 percent year on year. In the first six months, business revenue of service enterprises above the designated size grew by 29.5 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 11.1 percent, basically the same as that of the first five months. Specifically, the business revenue of information transmission, software and information technology services and that of scientific research and technology services grew by 25.7 percent and 23.9 percent year on year respectively, with an average two-year growth of 17.4 percent and 12.1 percent respectively. In July, the Business Activity Index for Services stood at 52.5 percent, up by 0.2 percentage point than that of June, staying above the threshold for seventeen months in a row. From the perspective of market expectation, the Business Activity Expectation Index for services stood at 60.1 percent, continuing to stay within the expansion range.

  1. Market Sales Continued to Grow and Online Retail Sales Grew Rapidly.

In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,492.5 billion yuan, up by 8.5 percent year on year, down by 3.6 percentage points than that of June and higher than that of the same period in 2019 and 2020, the average two-year growth reached 3.6 percent, and the month-on-month growth went down by 0.13 percent. In the first seven months, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24,682.9 billion yuan, up by 20.7 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 4.3 percent. In July, analyzed by different areas, the retail sales of consumer goods in urban areas reached 3,037.9 billion yuan, up by 8.4 percent year on year; and that in rural areas reached 454.7 billion yuan, up by 8.8 percent year on year. Grouped by consumption patterns, the retail sales of goods were 3,117.4 billion yuan, up by 7.8 percent year on year; and the revenue of catering was 375.1 billion yuan, up by 14.3 percent year on year. Grouped by categories, of the 18 categories of goods by enterprises above the designated size, 16 categories maintained positive year-on-year growth of retail sales. Daily consumer goods and upgraded consumer goods witnessed good momentum of growth. Of the retail sales of goods by enterprises above the designated size, the year-on-year growth rates of grain, oil and food, beverage and daily necessities went up by 11.3 percent, 20.8 percent and 13.1 percent respectively, those of sports and recreational articles, cultural and office appliances and gold, silver and jewelry went up by 20.7 percent, 14.8 percent and 14.3 percent year on year respectively. In the first seven months, the online retail sales reached 7,110.8 billion yuan, up by 21.9 percent year on year. Specifically, the online retail sales of physical goods totaled 5,813.0 billion yuan, up by 17.6 percent year on year, accounting for 23.6 percent of the total retail sales of consumer goods.

  1. Investment in Fixed Assets Was Generally Stable and the Growth of Investment in Manufacturing Accelerated.

In the first seven months, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) reached 30,253.3 billion yuan, up by 10.3 percent year on year, 2.3 percentage points lower than that in the first six months, with an average two-year growth of 4.3 percent; the month-on-month growth in July was 0.18 percent. Specifically, in the first seven months, the investment in infrastructure was up by 4.6 percent year on year, an average two-year growth of 0.9 percent, and 1.5 percentage points lower than that in the first six months; manufacturing up by 17.3 percent year on year, an average two-year growth of 3.1 percent, and 1.1 percentage points higher than that in the first six months; and real estate development up by 12.7 percent year on year, an average two-year growth of 8.0 percent, and 0.2 percentage point lower than that in the first six months. The floor space of commercial buildings sold reached 1,016.48 million square meters, up by 21.5 percent year on year; the total sales of commercial buildings were 10,643.0 billion yuan, up by 30.7 percent year on year. By industries, the investment in the primary industry went up by 21.8 percent year on year; that in the secondary industry up by 14.4 percent year on year; and that in the tertiary industry grew by 8.2 percent year on year. The private investment went up by 13.4 percent year on year. The investment in high-tech industries grew by 20.7 percent year on year, an average two-year growth of 14.2 percent. Specifically, the investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services grew by 27.1 percent and 8.8 percent year on year respectively. In terms of high-tech manufacturing, the investment in manufacturing of aerospace vehicle and equipment, in manufacturing of computers and office equipment and in manufacturing of medical equipment, measuring instruments and meters grew by 49.7 percent, 46.9 percent and 34.9 percent year on year respectively. In terms of high-tech services, the investment in E-commerce services and in research, development and design services went up by 42.7 percent and 27.2 percent year on year respectively. The investment in social sectors went up by 13.1 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 10.9 percent. Specifically, the investment in health and education went up by 31.8 percent and 12.1 percent year on year respectively.

  1. Imports and Exports of Goods Grew Fast and Trade Structure Continued to Improve.

In July, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 3,265.7 billion yuan, up by 11.5 percent year on year. Specifically, the value of exports was 1,814.2 billion yuan, up by 8.1 percent year on year and the value of imports was 1,451.5 billion yuan, up by 16.1 percent. The trade balance was 362.7 billion yuan in surplus. In the first seven months, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 21,341.7 billion yuan, an increase of 24.5 percent year on year. Specifically, the value of exports was 11,662.6 billion yuan, up by 24.5 percent year on year; that of imports was 9,679.2 billion yuan, up by 24.4 percent year on year. The trade structure continued to improve. In the first seven months, the exports of mechanical and electrical products grew by 25.5 percent year on year, accounting for 59 percent of the total value of exports. The imports and exports of general trade accounted for 61.9 percent of the total value of imports and exports, 1.5 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year. The imports and exports by private enterprises accounted for 47.9 percent of the total value of imports and exports, 2.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year.

  1. Employment was Generally Stable and Urban Employment Continued to Increase.

In the first seven months, the newly increased employed people in urban areas totaled 8.22 million, completing 74.7 percent of the annual target. In July, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1 percent, 0.1 percentage point higher than June. The surveyed unemployment rate of population with local household registration was 5.1 percent and that of population with non-local household registration was 5.0 percent. The surveyed unemployment rates of the population aged from 16 to 24 and from 25 to 59 were 16.2 percent and 4.2 percent respectively. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.2 percent, the same as that in June. The employees of enterprises worked 47.7 hours per week on average, 0.1 hour more than that in June.

  1. Prices Were Generally Stable and Consumer Price Went up Mildly.

In July, the consumer price (CPI) went up by 1.0 percent year on year, 0.1 percentage point lower than that in June and up by 0.3 percent month on month. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol went down by 1.8 percent year on year; clothing up by 0.4 percent; housing up by 1.1 percent; articles and services for daily use up by 0.3 percent; transport and communication up by 6.9 percent; education, culture and recreation up by 2.7 percent; medical services and health care up by 0.4 percent; and other articles and services down by 1.3 percent. Among the prices for food, tobacco and alcohol, the price for pork went down by 43.5 percent, fresh vegetables down by 4.0 percent, grain up by 0.7 percent, and fresh fruit up by 5.2 percent. The core CPI excluding the price of food and energy went up by 1.3 percent, an increase expanded by 0.4 percentage point than that of June. In the first seven months, the consumer price went up by 0.6 percent year on year.

In July, the producer prices for industrial products went up by 9.0 percent year on year, an increase expanded by 0.2 percentage point compared with that in June, or up by 0.5 percent month on month. The purchasing prices for industrial producers went up by 13.1 percent year on year, the same as that in June, or up by 0.9 percent month on month. In the first seven months, the producer prices for industrial products and the purchasing prices for industrial producers increased by 5.7 percent and 7.9 percent year on year respectively.

In general, the national economy sustained the momentum of steady recovery in July. However, given the continuously evolving global situation of the epidemic, the  increasingly complex and severe external environment, and the combined impact of sporadic local outbreaks of COVID-19 and natural disasters on the economy of some regions, the economic recovery is still unstable and uneven. At the next stage, under the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, we must uphold the underlying principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, adhere to the overall coordination of epidemic prevention and control with economic and social development, stick to full, accurate and comprehensive implementation of the new development philosophy, deepen the supply-side structural reforms, accelerate the building of a new development paradigm, advance the high-quality development, accurately implement the routine epidemic prevention and control measures, make good cross-cycle macro policy adjustment, implement macro policies in a scientific and targeted manner so as to keep the economy performing within the reasonable range and to promote a sustained recovery and steady and sound growth of the national economy.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio

Cina. Sofisticazione dell’export promette una lunga crescita duratura.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-18.

2021-08-08__ Cina Export 001

Il Growth Lab della Harvard University segue con molta attenzione la Cina.

Productivity Gap and Inward FDI Spillovers: Theory and Evidence from China

«In recent decades there has been ongoing research on how far the spillover effect of FDI contributes to the economic growth of host countries. Focusing on China, the world’s largest emerging economy, some maintain that the dramatic growth and the improved competitiveness of the domestic industrial capability of the Chinese economy since the opening-up policy have been attributable to the massive scale of inward FDI (e.g. Zhang, 2001; Yao, 2006; Lin et al., 2013; Chen and Wu, 2017). …. Indeed, as argued by Javorcik (2004), FDI can exert a positive spillover effect on the local industrial enterprises if and only if the multinational firms form joint ventures with domestic ones and are not fully owned foreign investments. …. What sets the present paper apart from these works is that we provide a new angle in terms of assessing the degree to which FDI could improve the productivity of local industrial enterprises through the spillover effect. We demonstrate, with a theoretical model, that, given an optimal joint-venture policy from foreign firms, the impact of the spillover effect of inward FDI is contingent upon the productivity gap between the domestic firms and foreign ones.»

* * *

«The sophistication of exports from a given country is commonly determined on the basis of technological or knowledge intensity bounded in its goods and services. …. One of the most widely used such classifications is the one provided by OECD (2011b) where goods are classified into four categories based on R&D intensity and R&D embodied in intermediate and investment goods …. goods differ by their levels of productivity. Once the productivity level of a particular good is determined the sophistication of export baskets of individual countries can be revealed on the basis of the proportion of particular goods in the overall structure of their exports»

* * * * * * *

«China is exporting more sophisticated products despite trade war»

«The technical level of China’s exports rose through a trade war with the US, according to a new ranking that predicts the Chinese economy will grow faster than India’s over the next decade»

«China ranks 16th globally in terms of the complexity of its exports in 2019, moving three places ahead of countries including Ireland since the start of the trade war in 2018»

«The index measures the variety and technical sophistication of the goods exported by a country as well as the volume of exports»

«China was able to raise its ranking despite US tariffs by exporting to other regions»

«Data covering the coronavirus pandemic is not yet available»

«There are indications that China will continue to gain market share in the regions as it was able to continue production»

«China’s export performance is in stark contrast to its roughly similarly populous but less affluent neighbor India, which ranked 43rd in 2019»

«China will overtake India in the next 10 years»

«→→ Rather …. the difference between a country’s current level of export sophistication and GDP per capita is the strongest predictor of a country’s future economic expansion ←←»

* * * * * * *

Stando a queste ricerche, peraltro ben corroborate dai macrodati, la Cina starebbe andando incontro ad un lungo periodo di crescita economica.

Non solo.

Le sanzioni americane sarebbero del tutto ininfluenti sulla crescita cinese.

*


China Is Exporting More Sophisticated Products Despite Trade War

The technical level of China’s exports rose through a trade war with the US, according to a new ranking that predicts the Chinese economy will grow faster than India’s over the next decade.

China ranks 16th globally in terms of the complexity of its exports in 2019, moving three places ahead of countries including Ireland since the start of the trade war in 2018, according to a new study by Harvard University’s Growth Lab.

The index measures the variety and technical sophistication of the goods exported by a country as well as the volume of exports. The US ranks 11th between the world’s two largest economies, with a gap of more than half in the past decade.

Tim Cheston, senior research manager at Growth Lab, said the data showed China was able to raise its ranking despite US tariffs by exporting to other regions.

“It was an efficient move by China to diversify its export destinations for electronics to Europe and elsewhere,” he said.

Data covering the coronavirus pandemic is not yet available, but it may have raised the country’s ranking further due to a boom in China’s exports. The 2019 data was updated last week.

“There are indications that China will continue to gain market share in the regions as it was able to continue production,” Cheston said.

A high ranking does not guarantee fast economic growth: Japan has topped the rankings for 19 years in a row, while registering slow growth. Rather, according to Growth Lab, the difference between a country’s current level of export sophistication and GDP per capita is the strongest predictor of a country’s future economic expansion.

China’s export performance is in stark contrast to its roughly similarly populous but less affluent neighbor India, which ranked 43rd in 2019 despite the government’s “Make in India” push.

“In the last few years we have seen India fall, when it comes to export growth it usually stabilizes,” Cheston said. This shows that “China will overtake India in the next 10 years” when it comes to economic growth, he said.

As China has moved up from the more developed countries in the ranking, it is facing more challenges in maintaining its progress.

Chinese exports “are now at the stage of filling almost all known segments of global products,” Chastain said. “China must now move technical knowledge from around the world into real innovation, which will be a great challenge.”

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio

Cina. Luglio21. Import +28.1%, Export +19.3%, Saldo 56.588 miliardi.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela

2021-08-08.

2021-08-09__ Cina Export 001

                         In sintesi.

«high-tech manufacturing went up by 22.6 percent year on year»

«In the first five months, the total profits made by industrial enterprises …. was 3,424.7 billion yuan, up by 83.4 percent year on year»

«In the first half year, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 18,065.1 billion yuan, an increase of 27.1 percent year on year»

«In the first half year, the exports of mechanical and electrical products accounted for 59.2 percent of the total value of exports»

«The imports and exports by private enterprises accounted for 47.8 percent of the total value of imports and exports»

«The total value of exports was 1,812.2 billion yuan, up by 20.2 percent year on year»

* * * * * *

Il National Bureau of Statistics of China ha rilasciato il Report

National Economy in the First Half Year Witnessed the Steady and Sound Growth Momentum Consolidated.

In the first half year, faced with complicated and changing environment both at home and abroad, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core, all regions and departments strictly implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, continued to consolidate and expand the achievements made in the epidemic prevention and control and the economic and social development, and implemented accurate macro policies. China’s economy sustained a steady recovery with the production and demand picking up, employment and prices remaining stable, new driving forces thriving fast, quality and efficiency enhancing, market expectations improving and major macro indicators staying within reasonable range. The national economy witnessed the steady and sound growth momentum consolidated.

According to the preliminary estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China in the first half year was 53,216.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7 percent at comparable prices, 5.6 percentage points lower than that of the first quarter; and the average two-year growth was 5.3 percent, 0.3 percentage points faster than that of the first quarter. By quarter, the year-on-year GDP growth for the first quarter was 18.3 percent, with an average two-year growth of 5.0 percent; for the second quarter 7.9 percent, with an average two-year growth of 5.5 percent. By industry, in the first half year, the value added of the primary industry was 2,840.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.8 percent, with an average two-year growth of 4.3 percent; the secondary industry 20,715.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 14.8 percent, with an average two-year growth of 6.1 percent; and the tertiary industry  29,661.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 11.8 percent, with an average two-year growth of 4.9 percent. The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of the second quarter was 1.3 percent.

….

                         Industrial Production Grew Steadily and High-tech Manufacturing Grew Fast.

In the first half year, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 15.9 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 7.0 percent, 0.2 percentage points faster than that of the first quarter; specifically, that of the second quarter went up by 8.9 percent year on year. In June, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 8.3 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 6.5 percent; and the month-on-month growth was 0.56 percent. In terms of sectors, in the first half year, the value added of the mining went up by 6.2 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 2.5 percent; that of the manufacturing up by 17.1 percent, with an average two-year growth of 7.5 percent; and that of the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water up by 13.4 percent, with an average two-year growth of 6.0 percent. The value added of high-tech manufacturing went up by 22.6 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 13.2 percent. In terms of products, the production of new-energy automobiles, industrial robots and integrated circuits increased by 205.0 percent, 69.8 percent, and 48.1 percent year on year respectively, with the average two-year growths all exceeding 30 percent. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added of the state holding enterprises went up by 11.9 percent year on year; that of share-holding enterprises up by 15.8 percent year on year; that of enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan up by 17.0 percent year on year; and that of private enterprises up by 18.3 percent year on year. In June, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index of China was 50.9 percent, staying above the threshold for sixteen months in a row. The Production and Operation Expectation Index was 57.9 percent.

In the first five months, the total profits made by industrial enterprises above the designated size was 3,424.7 billion yuan, up by 83.4 percent year on year, with an average two-year growth of 21.7 percent. The profit rate of the business revenue of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 7.11 percent, 2.05 percentage points higher than that of the first five months in 2020.

….

                         Imports and Exports of Goods Grew Fast and Trade Structure Continued to Improve.

In the first half year, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 18,065.1 billion yuan, an increase of 27.1 percent year on year. The total value of exports was 9,849.3 billion yuan, up by 28.1 percent year on year. The total value of imports was 8,215.7 billion yuan, up by 25.9 percent year on year. The trade balance was 1,633.6 billion yuan in surplus. The trade structure continued to improve. In the first half year, the exports of mechanical and electrical products accounted for 59.2 percent of the total value of exports, up by 0.6 percentage points over the same period last year. The imports and exports of general trade accounted for 61.9 percent of the total value of imports and exports, up by 1.7 percentage points over the same period last year. The imports and exports by private enterprises accounted for 47.8 percent of the total value of imports and exports, up by 2.8 percentage points over the same period last year. In June, the total value of imports and exports was 3,291.6 billion yuan, an increase of 22.0 percent year on year. The total value of exports was 1,812.2 billion yuan, up by 20.2 percent year on year. The total value of imports was 1,479.4 billion yuan, up by 24.2 percent year on year.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Stati Uniti

USA. 2020. Import ed Export. All commodities. Radiografia degli Stati Uniti.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-02.

Casa Bianca

USA. Imports and Exports. World. All Commodities. Value (US$) and Value Growth, YoY (%).

* * *


                         Exports.

The value of merchandise exports from USA totalled $ 1.43 trillion in 2020. Overall commodity exports from USA decreased by 13% compared to 2019. Merchandise exports decreased by $ 214 billion (the value of merchandise exports from USA amounted to $1.64 trillion in 2019).

                         USA’s exports 2020 by country.

Top export destinations of commodities from USA in 2020:

Canada with a share of 17.8% (255 billion US$)

Mexico with a share of 14.8% (212 billion US$)

China with a share of 8.71% (124 billion US$)

Japan with a share of 4.48% (64 billion US$)

United Kingdom with a share of 4.12% (58 billion US$)

Germany with a share of 3.99% (57 billion US$)

Korea with a share of 3.58% (51 billion US$)

Netherlands with a share of 3.18% (45 billion US$)

Brazil with a share of 2.45% (35 billion US$)

Other Asia, nes with a share of 2.13% (30 billion US$)

                         Exports structure from USA in 2020 represented by the following main commodity groups:

11.9% (170 billion US$): 84 – Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances; parts thereof

11.3% (161 billion US$): 85 – Electrical machinery and equipment and parts thereof; sound recorders and reproducers, television image and sound recorders and reproducers, and parts and accessories of such articles

10.8% (155 billion US$): 27 – Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation; bituminous substances; mineral waxes

7.35% (105 billion US$): 87 – Vehicles other than railway or tramway rolling stock, and parts and accessories thereof

6.74% (96 billion US$): 90 – Optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring, checking, precision, medical or surgical instruments and apparatus; parts and accessories thereof

5.65% (80 billion US$): 88 – Aircraft, spacecraft, and parts thereof

4.24% (60 billion US$): 39 – Plastics and articles thereof

4.11% (58 billion US$): 71 – Natural or cultured pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, precious metals, metals clad with precious metal and articles thereof; imitation jewelry; coin

3.76% (53 billion US$): 30 – Pharmaceutical products

3% (42 billion US$): 99 – Commodities not specified according to kind

                         What did USA export in 2020?

USA’s Top Exports in 2020:

4.24% ($60 billion): 2710 – Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, other than crude; preparations not elsewhere specified or included, containing by weight 70 % or more of petroleum oils or of oils obtained from bituminous minerals, these oils being the basic constituents of the preparations; waste oils.

3.51% ($50 billion): 2709 – Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude.

3.19% ($45 billion): 8703 – Motor cars and other motor vehicles principally designed for the transport of persons (other than those of heading 87.02), including station wagons and racing cars.

3.1% ($44 billion): 8542 – Electronic integrated circuits and microassemblies.

2.33% ($33 billion): 2711 – Petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons.

2.31% ($33 billion): 8708 – Parts and accessories of the motor vehicles of headings 87.01 to 87.05.

1.95% ($28 billion): 9018 – Instruments and appliances used in medical, surgical, dental or veterinary sciences, including scintigraphic apparatus, other electro-medical apparatus and sight-testing instruments.

1.91% ($27 billion): 8525 – Transmission apparatus for radio-telephony, radio-telegraphy, radio-broadcasting or television, whether or not incorporating reception apparatus or sound recording or reproducing apparatus; television cameras; still image video cameras and other video camera recorders; digital cameras.

1.86% ($26 billion): 8471 – Automatic data processing machines and units thereof; magnetic or optical readers, machines for transcribing data onto data media in coded form and machines for processing such data, not elsewhere specified or included.

* * * * * * *


                         Imports.

The value of merchandise imports to USA totalled $ 2.4 trillion in 2020. Overall commodity imports to USA decreased by 6.31% compared to 2019. Merchandise imports decreased by $ 162 billion (the value of merchandise imports to USA was equal to $2.56 trillion in 2019).

                         USA’s imports 2020 by country.

Top trading partners (import sources) of USA in 2020:

China with a share of 19% (457 billion US$)

Mexico with a share of 13.6% (328 billion US$)

Canada with a share of 11.4% (276 billion US$)

Japan with a share of 5.09% (122 billion US$)

Germany with a share of 4.88% (117 billion US$)

Vietnam with a share of 3.45% (83 billion US$)

Korea with a share of 3.25% (78 billion US$)

Switzerland with a share of 3.13% (75 billion US$)

Ireland with a share of 2.73% (65 billion US$)

Other Asia, nes with a share of 2.59% (62 billion US$)

                         Imports structure to USA in 2020 represented by the following main commodity groups:

15.1% (364 billion US$): 84 – Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances; parts thereof

13.9% (336 billion US$): 85 – Electrical machinery and equipment and parts thereof; sound recorders and reproducers, television image and sound recorders and reproducers, and parts and accessories of such articles

10.5% (254 billion US$): 87 – Vehicles other than railway or tramway rolling stock, and parts and accessories thereof

5.79% (139 billion US$): 30 – Pharmaceutical products

5.4% (130 billion US$): 27 – Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation; bituminous substances; mineral waxes

4.35% (104 billion US$): 71 – Natural or cultured pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, precious metals, metals clad with precious metal and articles thereof; imitation jewelry; coin

4.26% (102 billion US$): 99 – Commodities not specified according to kind

3.93% (94 billion US$): 90 – Optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring, checking, precision, medical or surgical instruments and apparatus; parts and accessories thereof

2.72% (65 billion US$): 94 – Furniture; bedding, mattresses, mattress supports, cushions and similar stuffed furnishings; lamps and lighting fittings, not elsewhere specified or included; illuminated sign illuminated nameplates and the like; prefabricated buildings

2.61% (62 billion US$): 39 – Plastics and articles thereof

                         What did USA import in 2020?

USA’s Top Imports in 2020:

6.05% ($145 billion): 8703 – Motor cars and other motor vehicles principally designed for the transport of persons (other than those of heading 87.02), including station wagons and racing cars.

4.8% ($115 billion): 8471 – Automatic data processing machines and units thereof; magnetic or optical readers, machines for transcribing data onto data media in coded form and machines for processing such data, not elsewhere specified or included.

4.17% ($100 billion): 8525 – Transmission apparatus for radio-telephony, radio-telegraphy, radio-broadcasting or television, whether or not incorporating reception apparatus or sound recording or reproducing apparatus; television cameras; still image video cameras and other video camera recorders; digital cameras.

3.4% ($81 billion): 3004 – Medicaments (excluding goods of heading 30.02, 30.05 or 30.06) consisting of mixed or unmixed products for therapeutic or prophylactic uses, put up in measured doses (including those in the form of transdermal administration systems) or in forms or packings for retail sale.

3.39% ($81 billion): 2709 – Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude.

2.49% ($60 billion): 8708 – Parts and accessories of the motor vehicles of headings 87.01 to 87.05.

2.13% ($51 billion): 3002 – Human blood; animal blood prepared for therapeutic, prophylactic or diagnostic uses; antisera and other blood fractions and modified immunological products, whether or not obtained by means of biotechnological processes; vaccines, toxins, cultures of micro-organisms (excluding yeasts) and similar products.

1.5% ($36 billion): 2710 – Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, other than crude; preparations not elsewhere specified or included, containing by weight 70 % or more of petroleum oils or of oils obtained from bituminous minerals, these oils being the basic constituents of the preparations; waste oils.

1.44% ($34 billion): 7108 – Gold (including gold plated with platinum) unwrought or in semi-manufactured forms, or in powder form.

Pubblicato in: Commercio

Giappone. Giugno21. Exports +48.6%, Imports +32.7%, YoY. +23.2% H1.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-07-22.

2021-07-22__ Giappone mport Export 001

«The increases were exaggerated by a plunge in trade last year due to the pandemic»

* * * * * *

Japan’s exports, imports zoom amid world pandemic recovery

Japan’s exports in June jumped 48.6% from the year before, marking the fourth straight month of growth, the Finance Ministry said Wednesday.

Imports for the month grew 32.7%, totaling 6.83 trillion yen ($62 billion). Exports for the month totaled 7.2 trillion yen ($66 billion), according to government data.

The increases were exaggerated by a plunge in trade last year due to the pandemic. But they highlight the recovery in the world’s third largest economy as a global rebound in business activity and travel boosts demand.

Exports to the U.S. surged 86% in June from a year earlier, led by shipments of cars and computer parts. Exports to China rose 28%, with strong growth in vehicles, semiconductor making equipment and computer parts, the data showed.

Japan logged a trade surplus of 985 billion yen ($9 billion) in the first half of the year, the second straight surplus in a row.

The economy has been hit hard by the pandemic, shrinking at a revised annual rate of 3.9% in January-March, as COVID-related restrictions crimped domestic demand. Data due to be disclosed next month are likely to show the contraction continued into the second quarter.

Worries are growing about coronavirus infections surging, as tens of thousands of athletes, team officials and other dignitaries enter the country for the Tokyo Olympics, opening this week.

About 15,000 Japanese have died so far and just over a fifth of the population is fully vaccinated. Dozens of people affiliated with the Games have already tested positive for the virus.

Japan has never had a lockdown, but parts of the nation, including Tokyo, have been under a government “state of emergency” much of the year, with restaurants and bars closing early to minimize crowds gathering.

The government expects the economy to come roaring back as the vaccine rollout becomes more widespread by the end of this year.

* * *


Japan’s exports jump on solid U.S., China demand

– June exports rise faster than expected

– Policymakers counting on export-led recovery

– Renewed COVID-19 curbs take tolls on service sector

*

Tokyo, July 21 (Reuters) – Japan’s exports jumped in June led by U.S. demand for cars and China-bound shipments of chip-making equipment, supporting hopes for an export-led recovery in the world’s third-largest economy.

Exports rose 48.6% in June from a year earlier, the fourth straight month of double-digit gains, although growth was largely exaggerated by a COVID-led plunge last year. Export growth has remained strong even as a global chip shortage weighs on Japan’s car output and shipments.

With consumer spending weakening due to renewed coronavirus curbs in Tokyo, policymakers are counting on external demand to pick up the slack.

In an encouraging sign for a trade-dependent economy, exports grew 23.2% in the first half of this year, up for the first time in five periods and exceeding pre-pandemic levels seen in the first half of 2019. It was the fastest growth since the first half of 2010.

The 48.6% year-on-year export growth beat a 46.2% increase expected by economists in a Reuters poll and followed a 49.6% expansion in May, which was the sharpest monthly increase since April 1980.

“China’s economy may be pausing but stimulus measures are being taken. With the help of recovery in Europe and America, it is expected to pick up again,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute. “That will help Japanese exports remain in an uptrend, backed by car exports as well as capital goods and information-related items.”

By destination, exports to China, Japan’s biggest trading partner, rose 27.7% in the year to June, led by demand for chip-making equipment, raw materials and plastic.

U.S.-bound exports grew 85.5% in June, driven by shipments of cars, auto parts and motors.

Imports rose 32.7% in the year to June, more than the median estimate for a 29.0% increase.

The trade balance came to a surplus of 383.2 billion yen ($3.49 billion), versus the median estimate for a 460.0 billion yen surplus.

Japan’s economy shrank an annualised 3.9% in January-March and likely barely grew in the second quarter, as the pandemic took a toll on service spending.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Commercio, Materie Prime

Giappone. Maggio21. Exports +49.6%, Imports +27.9, Balance -187,147 milioni di Yen.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-23.

2021-06-18__ Japan Import Export 002

Il Ministry of Finance ha rilasciato il Report Trade Statistics of Japan May 2021 (Provisional) (PDF file).

Contents

Total

Value of Exports and Imports by Area ( Country )

Exports by Principal Commodity ( World )

Imports by Principal Commodity ( World )

Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( USA )

Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( EU )

Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( ASIA )

Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( CHINA )

Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( R KOREA )

Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( ASEAN )

Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( MIDDLE EAST )

Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( RUSSIA )

Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( USA )

Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( EU )

Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( ASIA )

Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( CHINA )

Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( R KOREA )

Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( ASEAN )

Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( MIDDLE EAST )

Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( RUSSIA )

Indexes of Trade

Indexes of Trade ( WORLD )

Indexes of Trade ( USA )

Indexes of Trade ( EU )

Indexes of Trade ( ASIA )

Indexes of Trade ( CHINA )

* * * * * * *

A maggio l’Exports ammonta a 6,261,276 milioni di Yen (+49.6%), mentre l’Imports vale 6,448,423 milioni di Yen (+27.9%).

* * * * * * *

Per quanto  riguarda le esportazioni, l’Asia ne assorbe il 58.11% e la Cina il 22.24%; gli Stati Uniti il 17.64% e la Unione Europea il 9.85%.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. 2021Q1. Pil -5.0% rispetto al 2019Q4. Consumi -9.1%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-26.

2021-05-26__ Germania Pil 001

In sintesi.

-1.8% on the previous quarter (price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted)

-3.4% on the same quarter a year earlier (price-adjusted)

-3.1% on the same quarter a year earlier (price- and calendar-adjusted)

– Compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, the quarter before the corona crisis began, GDP was 5.0% lower

– The largest decreases (-13.9%) were recorded for other services

– Household final consumption expenditure, which was down a price-adjusted 9.1% on the first quarter of 2020

– Household final consumption expenditure fell by 5.4% on the fourth quarter of 2020

* * * * * * *

I macrodati tedeschi indicano uno stato di recessione e di una profonda crisi.

New orders in main construction industry in March 2021: -12.1% seasonally adjusted on the previous month.

Germania. Feb21. Import elettronica. Da Cina un terzo, da Asia oltre la metà. – Zvei.

Germania. Gen21 e Feb21. Export totale -4.5%, anno su anno. – Destatis.

Exports in February 2021: +0.9% on January 2021. Exports are 2.1% below the pre-crisis level of February 2020.

Germania. Febbraio 21. Produzione Industriale -6.4% anno su anno. – Destatis.

Germania. Febbraio. Vendite al Dettaglio -9.0% Feb21 su Feb20. – Destatis.

La crisi di leadership che mina il futuro della Germania.

Germania. Merkel. Après nous, le déluge. – Spiegel International.

* * *

Più ancora del pil in calo del 5%, rende preoccupati la contrazione del -9.1% dei consumi.

L’attuale crisi politica, con parcellizzazione delle forze politiche, lascia fitte nubi sui risultati delle elezioni federali di settembre. Ma senza un governo stabile sarà ben difficile risalire la china.

*

Destatis. Gross domestic product: detailed results on the economic performance in the 1st quarter of 2021. Economic performance 5.0% below pre-crisis level.

                         Pressrelease #244 from 25 May 2021

                         Gross domestic product, 1st quarter of 2021

-1.8% on the previous quarter (price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted)

-3.4% on the same quarter a year earlier (price-adjusted)

-3.1% on the same quarter a year earlier (price- and calendar-adjusted)

Wiesbaden – The gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 1.8% in the first quarter of 2021 on the fourth quarter of 2020 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. After the German economy had somewhat recovered in the second half of 2020 (+8.7% in the third quarter and +0.5% in the fourth quarter), the coronavirus crisis caused another decline in economic performance at the beginning of 2021. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that the decrease was slightly larger than reported in the first release of 30 April 2021. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, the quarter before the corona crisis began, GDP was 5.0% lower.

                         Household final consumption expenditure markedly down, increase in imports larger than in exports

The continuing, and in part intensified, restrictions imposed to contain the coronavirus pandemic had a particularly marked impact on household final consumption expenditure at the beginning of the year. In the first quarter of 2021, household final consumption expenditure fell by 5.4% on the fourth quarter of 2020 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. Government final consumption expenditure was slightly higher than in the previous quarter (+0.2%). Positive contributions came especially from gross fixed capital formation in construction in the first quarter of 2021 as it rose 1.1% on the fourth quarter of 2020 after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment. Seasonally adjusted gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment was slightly down on the previous quarter (-0.2%).
Foreign trade increased at the beginning of the year. However, the increase in imports of goods and services in the first quarter of 2021 (+3.8%, price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted) was markedly larger than the increase in exports (+1.8%).

                         Gross value added fell considerably in trade and construction

In the first quarter of 2021, the price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted gross value added decreased by 0.8% on the fourth quarter of 2020. Diverging trends were shown for the individual economic sectors. Gross value added in manufacturing was slightly up on the fourth quarter of 2020 (+0.4%), whereas gross value added in trade, transport, accommodation and food services was down (-3.2%). The decrease in construction was even larger (-4.9%), one of the reasons being the unusually cold weather at the beginning of the year.

                         Gross domestic product still markedly down on a year earlier

GDP in the first quarter of 2021 was down a price-adjusted 3.4% compared with the first quarter of 2020. After price and calendar adjustment, the decrease was slightly smaller (-3.1%) as there was one working day less than a year earlier.

                         Household final consumption expenditure fell sharply also on a year earlier, trade in goods increased

Domestic demand continued to be far lower than a year earlier. This applies especially to household final consumption expenditure, which was down a price-adjusted 9.1% on the first quarter of 2020. Gross fixed capital formation did not contribute to year-on-year growth either. Fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment decreased by 0.7% and in construction by 1.6% on a year earlier. Only government final consumption expenditure (+2.5%) and foreign demand had an upward effect when compared with a year earlier.

Foreign trade rose considerably on the first quarter of 2020, with exports of goods increasing slightly more than imports of goods. At the same time, foreign trade in services saw two-digit decreases, as was the case in the previous three quarters. On the whole, exports of goods and services fell by 0.6% (price-adjusted) in the first quarter of 2021 on the first quarter of 2020. Total imports declined by 3.0% in the same period.

                         In nearly all economic sectors, economic performance was down on a year earlier

On the production side of the GDP, price-adjusted gross value added was lower in almost all economic sectors in the first quarter of 2021 compared with a year earlier. The largest decreases (-13.9%) were recorded for other services, which include entertainment and recreation. In trade, transport, accommodation and food services, gross value added fell sharply, too (-8.2%). Especially accommodation and food services recorded an even larger decrease. Following the two-digit slump last summer, the economic situation in manufacturing continued to improve; nevertheless, gross value added in the first quarter of 2021 was still by 1.2% below the level of the first quarter of 2020. Information and communication is the only sector that saw noticeable economic growth on a year earlier (+0.7%).

Total gross value added was down 3.5%.

                         Number of persons in employment still markedly below pre-crisis level

The economic performance in the first quarter of 2021 was achieved by roughly 44.4 million persons in employment whose place of employment was in Germany. This was a decrease of 707,000, or 1.6%, on a year earlier (see press release 230/21 of 18 May 2021). It must be noted, however, that short-time work does not affect the employment figures because short-time workers still count as persons in employment.

However, short-time work had a substantial effect on the average number of hours worked per person in employment. The latter decreased by 4.0% in the first quarter of 2021 compared with the first quarter of 2020, according to first provisional calculations of the Institute for Employment Research of the Federal Employment Agency. The labour volume of the overall economy, which is the total number of hours worked by all persons in employment, went down even more (-5.5%) over the same period.

Overall labour productivity (price-adjusted GDP per hour worked by persons in employment) rose by 2.3% on the same quarter of the previous year, according to provisional calculations. However, labour productivity per person in employment was down 1.9% compared with the first quarter of 2020.

                         Stable incomes and consumer reticence lead to increase of savings ratio

At current prices, both the GDP and the gross national income were down 1.1% in the first quarter of 2021 compared with a year earlier. Net national income at factor costs was up 0.9% on the first quarter of 2020. While the compensation of employees was slightly down (-0.4%), property and entrepreneurial income was up 4.0% according to first provisional calculations. Gross wages and salaries per employee recorded a slight increase on average (+0.2%), while average net salaries rose 1.0% because of decreasing social contributions paid by employees. The disposable income of households was by 1.1% higher in the first quarter of 2021 than a year earlier. Household final consumption expenditure at current prices, however, showed a decrease of 7.3%. As in the previous three quarters, the relatively stable incomes, on the one hand, and consumer reticence, on the other, resulted in a substantial rise in household saving during the corona crisis. According to provisional calculations, the savings ratio was 23.2% in the first quarter of 2021.

                         International and European comparison

Trends were diverging within Europe. In the first quarter of 2021, the price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP declined for example in Spain (-0.5%) and Italy (-0.4%) on the fourth quarter of 2020, while a slight increase was seen in France (+0.4%). According to provisional calculations, the Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat) reported a GDP decline of 0.4% on the previous quarter for the European Union (EU) as a whole, which was markedly smaller than for Germany (-1.8%). The United States recorded a substantial increase in their gross domestic product (+1.6%, converted figure) at the beginning of the year, compared with the fourth quarter of 2020.
When compared with a year earlier, too, an increase in GDP (+0.4%, converted figure) was reported for the United States. The French economy recorded a considerable increase on the first quarter of 2020 (+1.5%), whereas most EU Member States reported marked decreases. Spain recorded the largest year-on-year decline (-4.3%) of all the Member States which have data available as yet for the first quarter of 2021. In Italy, the decline (-1.4%) was smaller than in Germany (-3.1%). For the whole EU, Eurostat released a preliminary result of -1.7% on the same quarter of the previous year.