Pubblicato in: Cina

Oriente. La nuova guerra del’oppio.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-09-01.

Gufo_019__

Gli Orientali hanno un’ottima memoria storica ed, al contrario della tendenza liberal democratica in Occidente, non solo non rinnegano il proprio passato, ma anzi lo pongono come fondamento del proprio presente e futuro.

Non c’è fanciullo in Oriente che non abbia studiato già alle elementari la storia delle guerre dell’oppio e la rivolta dei Boxer.

Forse, un micro ripasso della storia potrebbe essere utile.

«Le guerre dell’oppio furono due conflitti, svoltisi dal 1839 al 1842 e dal 1856 al 1860 rispettivamente, che contrapposero l’Impero cinese sotto la dinastia Qing al Regno Unito di Gran Bretagna e Irlanda, i cui interessi militari e commerciali nella regione erano stati posti sotto il controllo della Compagnia britannica delle Indie orientali. Le guerre giunsero al culmine di annose dispute commerciali tra i due Paesi: in risposta alla penetrazione commerciale britannica che aveva aperto il mercato cinese all’oppio proveniente dall’India britannica, la Cina inasprì i propri divieti sulla droga e ciò scatenò il conflitto.

Sconfitto in entrambe le guerre, l’Impero cinese fu costretto a tollerare il commercio dell’oppio e a firmare con i britannici i trattati di Nanchino e di Tientsin, che prevedevano l’apertura di nuovi porti al commercio e la cessione dell’isola di Hong Kong al Regno Unito. Ebbe così inizio l’era dell’imperialismo europeo in Cina, numerose altre potenze europee seguirono l’esempio e firmarono con Pechino trattati commerciali. Gli umilianti accordi con gli occidentali ferirono l’orgoglio cinese e alimentarono un sentimento nazionalista e xenofobo che si sarebbe poi espresso nelle rivolte di Taiping (1850-1864) e dei Boxer (1899-1901).

….

L’oppio era stato introdotto in Cina nel XVII secolo dagli olandesi, ma il dilagare della tossicodipendenza aveva indotto l’imperatore Yongzheng a proibirne nel 1729 la vendita e l’uso, permettendone l’importazione solo a fini terapeutici. In virtù di tale decisione, i britannici avevano evitato a lungo di portarlo in Cina, ed erano stati i portoghesi a continuarne l’esportazione a Macao per farne medicinali. La Compagnia britannica delle Indie orientali, dopo aver conquistato il Bengala sconfiggendo i francesi nella Battaglia di Plassey del 1757, iniziò la coltivazione intensiva del papavero da oppio assicurandosi il predominio nei traffici selezionando gradualmente una qualità di oppio molto migliore e imponendo un sensibile aumento del suo prezzo nei mercati internazionali, concentrando inizialmente le esportazioni nel Sudest asiatico. Per appianare i bilanci scompensati dalla sproporzione tra entrate e uscite con la Cina nonché da altri problemi tra cui i tagli delle sovvenzioni statali dopo l’indipendenza degli Stati Uniti, verso la fine del XVIII secolo la Compagnia britannica delle Indie orientali cominciò ad esportare oppio in Cina, dove malgrado la proibizione era tornato di moda specialmente tra le classi più abbienti.

….

Le nuove leggi predisposte dalla corte di Pechino per porre fine al fenomeno furono regolarmente eluse dai mercanti stranieri e la situazione creò nel Paese preoccupazioni sempre maggiori, una delle quali fu il timore che la diffusione dell’oppio tra le classi più povere potesse favorire eventuali rivolte. Un’altra delle ragioni per cui i cinesi non riuscivano ad estirpare il traffico fu la dilagante corruzione tra i suoi funzionari, in particolare i governatori di Canton.» [Fonte]

*

La memoria storica degli immani disastri provocati dall’uso di sostanze stupefacenti è vivida nella mente degli Orientali e costituisce uno dei tanti elementi di acredine nei confronti degli Occidentali.

I Governi orientali non hanno la minima intenzione di sottostare ad una nuova invasione di commercianti di droga, di assistere senza far nulla contro la droga che rende debosciati i suoi utilizzatori: per esempio, in Cina l’art. 347 del codice penale prevede la pena di morte per i reati connessi alla droga.

Né ci si illuda: gli Orientali covano nel loro animo uno spirito di rivalsa nei confronti dell’Occidente.

* * * * * * *

«Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo in July ordered police to shoot suspected drug dealers if they resisted arrest, saying “there should be no mercy”.»

*

«Recently, the President [Duterte] said he will also kill human rights advocates if the campaign against drugs is stopped because of them and the illegal drug problem gets worse»

*

Nelle Filippine è in vigore l’Act Strengthening Nongovernment Organizations (Ngos), e sue successive modificazioni, riportato sulla Official Gazette of the Republic of the Philippines.

Soros George. Uno stato negli stati. Ecco i suoi principali voivodati.

Cina. Durissima risposta al report Usa sui ‘diritti umani’.

Orban contro Soros. Nuova legge sulle Ong.

Law of the People’s Republic of China on Administration of Activities of Overseas Nongovernmental Organizations in the Mainland of China.

Filippine. La situazione analizzata dal punto di vista cinese. Xinhua.

*

Non si resta quindi minimamente stupiti che quella parte del mondo occidentale che vive lucrando sullo spaccio della droga, quali i liberals democratici negli Stati Uniti e nell’Unione Europea, abbiano scatenato una guerra mediatica e politica contro i paesi orientali che hanno leggi proibizioniste circa la droga. In particolare, negli ultimi tempi, contro le Filippine di Mr Duterte.

Le finalità dei commercianti internazionali di droga sono sia di mero guadagno, lo spaccio di droga rende molto bene, sia quello di destabilizzazione delle facoltà mentali e volitive della popolazione. Esattamente gli stessi motivi che avevano portato alla guerra dell’oppio e, poi, a quella dei Boxer.

«Amnesty International has condemned what it described as an alarming number of police killings of suspected drug dealers in Indonesia.»

Ma chi è mai Amnesty International?

Quanto conta il suo parere?

Si presentino a libere elezioni e si potrà vedere nei fatti quanto contano.

Intano, fuori dall’Occidente contano meno di nulla.


Aljazeera. 2017-08-26. Duterte’s war on drugs and those reporting it

What’s behind the Philippine president’s war on the media and NGOs? Plus, reporting on the working class in the US.

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On The Listening Post this week: The most violent week yet in Duterte’s Philippines sees over 90 killed and NGO workers threatened. Plus, reporting on labour and the working class in the US.

Duterte’s war on drugs and those reporting it

Since coming to power last June, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has been on a mission to eradicate what he claims is the country’s pandemic drug problem.

The brutal crackdown on the drug trade in the country is showing no signs of slowing down. Last week, 58 alleged drug dealers and users were killed in and around the capital, Manila. One of the victims, a 17-year-old, made headlines. Police say he was killed in a two-way firefight. Eyewitnesses, backed by CCTV footage, tell a different story.

President Rodrigo Duterte has dismissed the killings of children as “collateral damage” while labelling anyone who criticises his deadly approach as an “enemy of the state”.

Contributors:

Maria Ressa, CEO, Rappler

Vergel Santos, chairman, Center for Media Freedom and Responsibility

RJ Nieto, publisher, Thinking Pinoy

Karen Gomez-Dumpit, commissioner, Commission on Human Rights

Felipe Villamor, Philippines reporter, The New York Times


Aljazeera. 2017-08-26. Amnesty sounds alarm as Indonesia slays drug suspects

As police kill 60 people in 2016 compared to 18 last year, group says country could be following Philippines’ footsteps.

*

Amnesty International has condemned what it described as an alarming number of police killings of suspected drug dealers in Indonesia.

The rights group said on Wednesday that police had killed at least 60 suspects this year, compared to 18 in all of 2016.

The group warned that Indonesian authorities could be looking to emulate the “war on drugs” in the Philippines, in which thousands have been killed.

“This shocking escalation in unlawful killings by the police sounds serious alarms bells,” said Usman Hamid, Amnesty’s Indonesia director.

The group said it had collected data of the killings.

Shooting people on sight is not only unlawful, said Hamid, “it will also do nothing to address the root causes that lead to drug use in the first place”.

Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo in July ordered police to shoot suspected drug dealers if they resisted arrest, saying “there should be no mercy”.

His remarks drew comparison to those made by Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, whose controversial crackdown on drugs has left more than 3,000 dead over the course of a year.

The killings in the Philippines may amount to “extrajudicial executions”, Amnesty International said.

The rights group accused the police of resembling a criminal enterprise, killing mainly poor people suspected of being drug users or sellers, or paying others to kill them.

“Duterte should not under any circumstances be considered a role model for Indonesia,” Usman said.

Of those killed in Indonesia in 2017, at least eight were foreigners, including three Chinese men.

Police said the suspects were shot because they resisted arrest, but no independent investigations were conducted, according to Amnesty International.

Indonesia has tough laws against drugs.

Since Widodo took office in 2014, Indonesia has executed 18 people for drug trafficking, defying international calls for mercy.

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Cina, Sistemi Economici, Sistemi Politici

Filippine. La situazione analizzata dal punto di vista cinese. Xinhua.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2017-08-22.

Mare Cinese del Sud 001

Essere obiettivi è davvero arte difficile, anche nella più perfetta buona fede.

Per gli italiani Oberdan Sauro e Battisti sono irredentisti martiri per l’Italia, mentre per gli austriaci sono traditori della patria. Chi studiasse la storia solo su testi italiani abbraccerebbe la prima interpretazione, chi invece studiasse la storia su testi austriaci abbraccerebbe la seconda.

La scelta delle fonti di informazione condiziona l’idea che ci si forma di quanto accade. Ma mica è detto che l’informazione di parte dica la verità.

*

Ma non esiste solo il punto di vista occidentale, esiste anche quello degli altri. Non solo. I media occidentali hanno tutti un’impronta liberal che le recenti elezioni hanno dimostrato essere minoritaria. Seguire solo questi media sarebbe fuorviante. Le elezioni hanno dimostrato e stanno dimostrando come i liberals democratici ed i socialisti europei siano una minoranza: il loro pensiero non rispecchia quello occidentale.  Proprio per niente.

Da un punto di vista meramente economico, se si considera il pil per potere di acquisto, il mondo genera 108,036,500 milioni Usd, la Cina 17,617,300 (16.31%) e gli Stati Uniti 17,418,00 (16.12%). L’Eurozona rende conto di 11,249,482 (10.41%) ed il Gruppo dei G7 di 31.825,293 (29.46%). Di conseguenza, la voce dell’Occidente vale nel mondo al massimo per il 29.46%, ma quella degli Stati Uniti vale solo il 16.12% e quella dell’Europa uno scarno 10.41%.

È davvero ingenua per non dire patetica la arrogante presunzione di quanti considerano l’Occidente egemone dominante: gli altri non glielo permetterebbero. Ma ancora più farsesca è la proterva superbia di quanti presumono che l’Eurozona (10.41%) possa condizionare il mondo: è vero proprio l’opposto.

Cina. Quanzhou. I Brics decidono cosa farsene dell’Occidente.

*

Diamo volentieri atto che i media cinesi, arabi, russi ed indiani sono usualmente molto più obbiettivi e quasi sempre riportano i fatti senza distorcerli, cosa non da poco. Di norma separano le notizie dai commenti.

* * * * * * *

I discorsi sopra fatti non sono per nulla di lana caprina.

L’Occidente ha perso negli ultimi decenni molte posizioni proprio per l’essersi incancrenito in simili ideologie. Da ultimo, sta persino perdendo la Turkia, da oltre settanta anni fedele alleata.

Ma quadro analogo si prospetta nel sud – est asiatico, con i rapporti con le Filippine.

Ma senza alleati l’Occidente corre il rischio di contare ancor meno di quanto conti ora.

Ma le Filippine hanno una posizione strategica nel Mare Cinese del Sud e sull’Oceano Pacifico.

Poniamo adesso un quesito: e se Mr Duterte avesse ragione? Perché non voler ascoltare anche le sue ragioni?

* * * * * * *

«Most Filipinos remain appreciative of the performance of President Rodrigo Duterte after one year of his term»

*

«In the national Capital Region, the survey said Duterte also scored 80 percent, or 7 percent higher than a previous survey conducted in March»

*

«Duterte managed to get high approval rating despite the strings of criticisms hurled in his way by some western countries and human rights groups alarmed by the hardline drug war»

*

«In the past year, President Duterte has initiated a series of economic reforms to accelerate economic development. Despite much “political noise,” the government seeks sustained growth around 6.5- to 7 percent in 2017, by banking on multiple initiatives, especially higher infrastructure spending»

*

«the current Philippine government debt of $123 billion is about to soar to $290 billion because China, the “most likely lender,” would impose high interest rates on the debt»

*

«These figures assume absence of transparency by the Duterte government and China on the interest rate, conditionality and repayment terms of $167 billion of new debt for the Philippines»

*

«the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) anticipated the Philippine debt position to remain sustainable, despite deficit spending for infrastructure. Between 2017 and 2022, the Duterte government plans to spend about $160 billion to $180 billion to fund the “Golden Age of Infrastructure.” An expansionary fiscal policy shall increase the planned deficit to 2 to 3 percent of GDP»

*

«Given deficit spending of 3 percent of GDP, the DBM assumes growth will be 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent this year and 7 percent to 8 percent from 2018 to 2022 (plus inflation of 2 percent to 4 percent). As a result, it projects the debt-to-GDP ratio to decline from 41 percent in 2016 to 38 percent in 2022»

*

«The realities are very different, however»

*

«Duterte is focused on infrastructure (his infrastructure budget as percentage of GDP is 2 to 3 times higher in relative terms).»

*

«Such objectives are far from neutral economic observation, but they do reflect political partisanship that is typical of Washington’s neoconservative and liberal imperial dreams»

*

«Duterte stressed that Russia is a reliable partner, and he offered to continue their friendship»

* * * * * * *

I media liberal occidentali odiano Mr Duterete per almeno due motivi, per loro di importanza fondamentale.

In primo luogo. Mr Duterte ha dichiarato guerra alla droga ed ha disposto la pena di morte in via amministrativa degli spacciatori, ottenendo in tempi molto rapidi una quasi completa bonifica delle Filippine.

In secondo luogo, pur tollerando a parole l’omosessualità e l’lgbt, si è fermamente opposto alla legalizzazione delle coppie omosessuali.

There is no gender because you can be a he or she… That’s their culture. It does not apply to us. We are Catholics and there is the Civil Code, which says that you can only marry a woman for me… a woman to marry a man. …. That’s our law so why would you accept that gender?»

*

Ma ciò che l’Occidente liberal considera i reati dei reati, nelle Filippine e nel resto del mondo sono invece comportamenti normali e legali. L’Occidente conta quanto il nobile decaduto che chiede l’elemosina sul sagrato di una Chiesa. Il blasone non è commestibile.

L’irrigidimento ideologico dell’Amministrazione Obama nei confronti delle Filippine ha obbligato Mr Duterte a riavvicinarsi alla Cina ed alla Russia, che, non nutrendo ideologie di sorta, non possono nemmeno cercare di imporle ai loro partner economici e militari.

Per irrigidimento ideologico l’Occidente ha già quasi perso la Turkia: nulla vieta di pensare che la prossima perdita siano proprio le Filippine.


Nota.

Nella comparazione economica è stata usato l’indice del pil ppa, per potere di acquisto, perché più appropriato. Il discorso teorico sarebbe lungo ed anche alquanto barboso: ci spiegheremo con un esempio.

Consideriamo due persone che guadagnino ciascuna 1,500 euro al mese.

La prima vive a Londra, dove l’affitto di una camera ammobiliata si aggira sui 1,200 euro al mese. Pur essendo persona molto parsimoniosa, vive ai margini della miseria, nella fascia di povertà.

La seconda vive in Venezuela. Con tale introito mensile può permettersi una villetta, la cuoca e due persone di servizio. Essa vive in condizione di lusso.

Stessa entrata mensile, ma differenti poteri di acquisto.

Il pil ppa è calcolato tenendo conto del costo della vita, rendendo così comparabili dati raccolti in paesi diversi.



New China. 2017-05-25. Philippines’ Duterte asks Putin for arms support

MOSCOW, May 24 (Xinhua) — Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has asked his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, for arms to fight Islamic militants in the Asian country.

“Our country needs modern weapons to fight against ISIS. We had certain orders in the U.S., however, the situation is not very good now. I came to Moscow to ask for your help and support,” the Kremlin quoted Duterte as telling Putin in a meeting on Tuesday.

Duterte stressed that Russia is a reliable partner, and he offered to continue their friendship.

“We need to improve trade exchange between the two countries,” the Philippine leader said.

Putin noted that Moscow and Manila have many bilateral projects, including power engineering, defense cooperation, and transport infrastructure.

Duterte arrived in Moscow on Tuesday for a four-day official visit, but was forced to cut short his trip as fighting broke out in the southern Philippine region of Mindanao.

Putin said he hoped the conflict in the Philippines would be resolved “with minimum losses.”

Duterte’s delegation remained in Moscow to sign bilateral agreements on Wednesday, Russian media reported.


Xinhua. 2017-07-17. Philippines’ Duterte enjoys high approval rating at 82 percent: poll

MANILA, July 17 (Xinhua) — Most Filipinos remain appreciative of the performance of President Rodrigo Duterte after one year of his term, according to an independent poll released here Monday.

A survey by Pulse Asia Inc. conducted from June 24 to June 29 showed that 82 percent of the 1,200 people surveyed nationwide approved the way Duterte runs the country.

Out of all the respondents, the poll said 13 percent were undecided about Duterte’s performance, while 5 percent disapproved Duterte’s performance. Overall, the poll said Duterte scored the highest among the top government officials covered by the survey.

“Most Filipinos remain appreciative of the performance of (Duterte), Vice President Maria Leonor Robredo and Senate President Aquilino Pimentel,” the poll said, adding that Robredo got 61 percent while Pimentel, 62 percent.

In the national Capital Region, the survey said Duterte also scored 80 percent, or 7 percent higher than a previous survey conducted in March. In the main Luzon Island, the survey said Duterte scored 75 percent, or 4 percent higher than the March survey. Duterte scored the highest in his bailiwick Mindanao, scoring 95 percent, or 7 percent higher than the score he got in March, the survey said.

However, the survey noted that Duterte’s approval rating dropped 2 percent in the Visayas region in the central Philippines from 86 percent in March to 84 percent.

Duterte managed to get high approval rating despite the strings of criticisms hurled in his way by some western countries and human rights groups alarmed by the hardline drug war campaign and the declaration of martial law in the entire Mindanao in the southern Philippines.

Government authorities said the ongoing war in Marawi City against militants allied with the Islamic State has so far claimed the lives of at least 593 people, including 411 terrorists, 97 security forces and 45 civilians.

Duterte, who assumed the presidency in June last year, ends his single, six-year term in 2022.


Xinhua. 2017-07-26. Philippine President Duterte vows for closer relations with China

MANILA, July 25 (Xinhua) — Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte pledged on Tuesday that his country is to build stronger bilateral relations with China.

“The Philippines attaches great importance to China’s status and influence in the world, and is willing to build stronger relations with China,” Duterte said in his meeting with visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

Duterte said the Philippines highly appreciates the support China extends to his country and the role China plays in his country’s nation building, especially China’s support to combat terrorism.

Duterte expressed his satisfaction with the development of the bilateral ties between the two countries, saying the Philippines is willing to deepen cooperation with China in all sectors so as to benefit the two countries and their peoples.

Wang reiterated that China unswervingly supports Philippine’s independent foreign policy.

Wang recalled that bilateral relations between China and the Philippines have fully improved under the guidance of the leaders of the two countries, saying improvement in relations has brought tangible benefits to the two peoples.

“Facts speak louder. For neighbors, dialogue is better than confrontation, cooperation is better than friction. History will show that we have made a right choice,” Wang said.


Xinhua. 2017-08-05. The myths and realities of Duterte’s infrastructure initiative

In the past year, President Duterte has initiated a series of economic reforms to accelerate economic development. Despite much “political noise,” the government seeks sustained growth around 6.5- to 7 percent in 2017, by banking on multiple initiatives, especially higher infrastructure spending.

According to Ernesto Pernia, Director General of the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), investment spending must be ramped up to 30 percent of GDP for the Philippines to become an upper middle-income economy by the end of Duterte’s term in 2022, and to pave the way for a high-income economy by 2040.

Yet, the huge infrastructure investment effort has been often misreported internationally. Infrastructure investment is a case in point.

The allegation: Infrastructure as ‘debt slavery’

In early May, Budget Secretary Benjamin Diokno estimated that some $167 billion would be spent on infrastructure during President Duterte’s six-year term. Only a day later, US business magazine Forbes released a commentary, which headlined that this debt “could balloon to $452 billion: China will benefit.”

According to the author, Dr. Anders Corr, the current Philippine government debt of $123 billion is about to soar to $290 billion because China, the “most likely lender,” would impose high interest rates on the debt: “Over 10 years, that could balloon the Philippines’ debt-to-GDP ratio to as high as 296 percent, the highest in the world.”

These figures assume absence of transparency by the Duterte government and China on the interest rate, conditionality and repayment terms of $167 billion of new debt for the Philippines. Due to accrued interest, “Dutertenomics, fueled by expensive loans from China, will put the Philippines into virtual debt bondage if allowed to proceed.” Corr assumes China’s interest rate would amount to 10 percent to 15 percent.

But why would the Philippines accept such a nightmare scenario? Because, as Corr puts it, “Duterte and his influential friends and business associates could each benefit with hundreds of millions of dollars in finder’s fees, of 27 percent, for such deals.”

He offers no facts or evidence to substantiate the assertions, however.

The official story: Debt decline, despite infrastructure investment

Recently, the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) anticipated the Philippine debt position to remain sustainable, despite deficit spending for infrastructure. Between 2017 and 2022, the Duterte government plans to spend about $160 billion to $180 billion to fund the “Golden Age of Infrastructure.” An expansionary fiscal policy shall increase the planned deficit to 2 to 3 percent of GDP.

To finance the deficit, the government will borrow money following an 80-20 borrowing mix in favor of domestic sources, to alleviate foreign exchange risks—which would seem to undermine the story of China as the Big Bad Wolf.

The fiscal strategy is manageable because the economy, despite increasing deficit, will outgrow its debt burden as economic expansion outpaces the growth in the rate of borrowing. So what is the expected impact on the debt-to-GDP ratio?

Given deficit spending of 3 percent of GDP, the DBM assumes growth will be 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent this year and 7 percent to 8 percent from 2018 to 2022 (plus inflation of 2 percent to 4 percent). As a result, it projects the debt-to-GDP ratio to decline from 41 percent in 2016 to 38 percent in 2022.

The realities: Growth over deficit financing

The current Philippine debt-to-GDP ratio compares well with its regional peers. It is half of that of Singapore and less than that of Vietnam, Malaysia, Laos and Thailand (see Figure 1). The starting point for a huge infrastructure upgrade is favorable. True, in a downscale risk analysis, Philippine growth performance might not reach the target, but would be likely to stay close to it – which would still translate to a manageable increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio.

Yet, Corr claims that Philippine debt ratio will soar seven-fold in the Duterte era, whereas the DBM estimate offers evidence the debt could slightly decline. The difference between the two is almost 260 percent.

Today, Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 250 percent of its GDP. However, at the turn of the 1980s, the ratio was still closer to 40 percent, or where the Philippine level is today. Yet, Corr claims the Duterte government would need barely four years to achieve not only Japan’s debt ratio today but a level that would be another 50 percent higher!

The realities are very different, however. The contemporary Philippines enjoys sound macroeconomic fundamentals, not Marcos-era vulnerability. Moreover, Corr’s tacit association of Duterte’s infrastructure goals with former President Marcos’s public investment program (and the associated debt crisis in the 1980s) proves hollow. Duterte is focused on infrastructure (his infrastructure budget as percentage of GDP is 2 to 3 times higher in relative terms).

Today, borrowing conditions are also more favorable (365-day Treasury bill rates are 3 to 4 times lower than in the Marcos era). Furthermore, the Philippine gross international reserves, which amount to 9 months, are relatively highest among Asean economies and 3 to 4 times higher than in the Marcos era (Figure 2).

In addition to realities, Corr’s analysis ignores the dynamics of debt. Any country’s debt position is not just the nominal amount of the debt, but its value relative to the size of the economy. An economy that is barely growing and suffers from dollar-denominated debt lacks capacity to pay off its liabilities, as evidenced by Greece. In contrast, with its strong growth record, the Philippines has the capacity to grow while paying off its liabilities.

Geopolitical agendas, economic needs

Corr could have challenged DBM’s assumptions about Philippine future growth, potential increases in infrastructure budget, contingent adverse shifts in the international environment and so on, but his purposes may be political.

He is close to US Pentagon and intelligence communities, which strongly oppose Duterte’s recalibration of Philippine foreign policy between the US and China. According to the US Naval Institute, he has visited all South China Sea claimant countries and undertaken “field research” in Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Brunei. He has been an associate for Booz Allen Hamilton (as once was Edward Snowden). Though he has ties with international multilateral banks, he is less of an “economic hit man” and has more interest in US security matters.

Corr led the US Army social science research already in Afghanistan and conducted analysis at US Pacific Command (USPacom) and US Special Operations Command Pacific (Socpac) for US national security in Asia, including in the Philippines, Nepal, and Bangladesh. Currently, he is researching Russia and Ukraine for the Pentagon. He has urged President Trump to use stronger military presence in the South China Sea, bullied Pakistan with sanctions, and supported independentistas in Hong Kong and Taiwan, labeled Chinese students abroad as Beijing’s informants, while exploring US nuclear options against North Korea.

Such objectives are far from neutral economic observation, but they do reflect political partisanship that is typical of Washington’s neoconservative and liberal imperial dreams– but not the views of most Americans, according to major polls.

In the Philippines, Duterte’s supporters see Chinese debt as a business deal that will ultimately support the country’s future. After Forbes, the Duterte government’s critics were quick to report the story, but without appropriate examination of its economic assertions and possible strategic motives. Overall, while liberals tend to oppose the debt plans for geopolitical reasons, their economists are more sympathetic.

In any real assessment, simple realism should prevail: When the rate of economic expansion exceeds that of debt growth, low-cost financing for public projects can make a vital contribution to the Philippines’ economic long-term future.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Geopolitica Militare, Politica Mondiale, Senza categoria

Cina, Usa, Mare Cinese del Sud. Punto della situazione.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2016-12-18.

 2016-12-17__cina-usa-mare-cinese-del-sud-__001

L’importanza strategica del mar Cinese del Sud è semplicemente evidente.

Nel corso degli ultimi anno la Cina ha costruito in quel mare una serie di isole artificiali, munite di porto marittimo e di aeroporti con piste di oltre tre kilometri, infrastrutture logistiche, ed adesso sta procedendo ad armarle con batterie antiaeree convenzionali e sistemi missilistici anti-nave ed anti-aerei.

La Cina costruisce isole artificiali anche alle Scarborough Shoal.

2016-12-17__cina-usa-mare-cinese-del-sud-__002

«satellite images published by a US group appear to show anti-aircraft guns and missile defence systems on the seven islands.»

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«In a report on Wednesday, the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) said it had been tracking construction of hexagon-shaped buildings on four of the Spratly islands for several months.»

*

«It said the new buildings were an “evolution” of structures on the three other islands, but it was now confident that all of the buildings housed military defences.»

*

2016-12-17__cina-usa-mare-cinese-del-sud-__003

«The group says that some buildings “host what are most likely anti-aircraft guns” which have visible gun barrels in satellite images, while others are probably what it terms close-in weapons systems (CIWS).»

*

«CIWS are defence platforms used to detect and shoot down missiles and other aircraft.»

*

«Some of the structures have been buried, the group said – which would make them less vulnerable to enemy strikes.»

2016-12-17__cina-usa-mare-cinese-del-sud-__004

* * * * * * *

Ne è nato un contenzioso sia con i paesi bagnati da tale Mare sia, soprattutto, con gli Stati Uniti.

Nel luglio di questo anno la Permanent Court of Arbitration ha stabilito che «there was no evidence that China had historically exercised exclusive control over the waters or resources». Questa Corte era stata costituita in accordo con la United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), convenzione formata sia dalle Filippine sia dalla Cina, ma la Cina pur riconoscendo la Convenzione non ne riconosce il potere arbitrante.

Le Corti Internazionali di Giustizia hanno spesso tenuto comportamenti ambigui ed emesso sentenze partigiane.

Pur avendo nome di “internazionali“, sono riconosciute essere tali da ben pochi stati.

International Criminal Court. Anche il Sud Africa la disconosce.

Gambia pulls out of International Criminal Court, citing hypocrisy

Prosegue e si allarga la rivolta all’impèrio mondiale. Gambia.

Mare Cinese del Sud. Nota ufficiale di Pekino.

* * * * * * *

Al contenzioso legale si sono anche associate numerose prove di forza.

China holds first live-fire drills with aircraft carrier, warships.

Negli ultimi tempi alcune inaspettate evoluzioni.

Da parte Filippina:

Duterte arrivato in visita a Pechino. Bud Bagsak non è stata dimenticata.

Ma anche da parte americana:

Trump telefona a Duterte. Entente Cordiale. Realpolitik.

* * * * * * *

Al momento attuale la situazione è in attesa che il Presidente eletto Mr Trump prenda possesso della carica.

Non sembrerebbe però facile che gli americani riescano a ripristinare il vecchio status quo.

A nostro parere, anche la serie bilaterale di provocazioni non conduce molto lontano. Il fatto che i cinesi abbiano catturato un drone americano in acque che loro ritengono territoriali e gli americani internazionali è un evento caratteristico: il problema è e resta diplomatico in primo luogo, militare in secondo. Dovrebbe quindi essere risolto in via politica.



Bbc. 2016-12-15. South China Sea: Satellite photos ‘show weapons’ built on islands

New photographic evidence has emerged of “significant” Chinese military defences on artificial islands in the South China Sea, a think tank reports.

*

China had previously committed to not militarising its controversial developments in the region.

But satellite images published by a US group appear to show anti-aircraft guns and missile defence systems on the seven islands.

Several countries claim territorial rights in the South China Sea.

In a report on Wednesday, the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) said it had been tracking construction of hexagon-shaped buildings on four of the Spratly islands for several months.

It said the new buildings were an “evolution” of structures on the three other islands, but it was now confident that all of the buildings housed military defences.

The group says that some buildings “host what are most likely anti-aircraft guns” which have visible gun barrels in satellite images, while others are probably what it terms close-in weapons systems (CIWS).

CIWS are defence platforms used to detect and shoot down missiles and other aircraft.

Some of the structures have been buried, the group said – which would make them less vulnerable to enemy strikes.

“These gun and probable CIWS emplacements show that Beijing is serious about defence of its artificial islands in case of an armed contingency in the South China Sea,” AMTI said.

“Among other things, they would be the last line of defence against cruise missiles launched by the United States or others against these soon-to-be-operational air bases,” it added, in a reference to previous photos which seemed to show aircraft hangars being built.

China’s Defence Ministry said on Thursday that its deployment of military equipment was “legitimate and lawful”. A brief post on the Defence Ministry’s microblog site described the equipment as necessary and defensive.

During his state visit to the US in September 2015, Chinese leader Xi Jinping said China did not intend to pursue militarisation of the Spratly islands but emphasised China’s sovereignty over the region.

The White House said it was to “demonstrate … lawful uses of the sea that the United States and all states are entitled to exercise under international law.”

China accused the US of an illegal act, and of being “intentionally provocative”.

The White House said it was to “demonstrate … lawful uses of the sea that the United States and all states are entitled to exercise under international law.”

China accused the US of an illegal act, and of being “intentionally provocative”.


Reuters. 2016-12-16. China holds first live-fire drills with aircraft carrier, warships

China’s military has carried out its first ever live-fire drills using an aircraft carrier and fighters in the northeastern Bohai Sea close to Korea, state media said.

China’s growing military presence in the disputed South China Sea has fueled concern, with the United States criticizing its militarization of maritime outposts and holding regular air and naval patrols to ensure freedom of navigation.

No other country has claims in China’s busy waterway of the Bohai Sea, but the drills come amid new tension over self-ruled Taiwan, following U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s recent telephone call with the island’s president that upset Beijing.

Ten vessels and 10 aircraft engaged in air-to-air, air-to-sea and sea-to-air combat drills that featured guided missiles, state broadcaster Chinese Central Television reported late on Thursday.

“This is the first time an aircraft carrier squadron has performed drills with live ammunition and real troops,” it said.

China’s Soviet-built Liaoning aircraft carrier and a formation of warships carried out aerial interception, anti-aircraft and anti-missile drills, in which Shenyang J-15 fighter jets carrying live missiles also participated, CCTV said.

It broadcast images of fighter jets taking off from the carrier, firing missiles and destroying a target at sea.

The Liaoning has participated in previous military exercises, including some in the South China Sea, but the country is still years off from perfecting carrier operations similar to those the United States has practiced for decades.

On Wednesday, a U.S. think tank said China had been installing anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems on artificial islands in the South China Sea, prompting China to defend its right to install military hardware there.

China’s exercises aim to test the equipment and troop training levels, an unidentified navy official told the official China News Service.

Last December the Defence Ministry confirmed China was building a second aircraft carrier to go with the existing vessel, but its launch date is unclear.

China keeps its aircraft carrier program a state secret, and CCTV blurred images showing the cockpit instrument panel of one aircraft involved in the Bohai Sea drills.

Beijing could build multiple aircraft carriers over the next 15 years, the Pentagon said in a report last year.

China’s successful operation of the Liaoning is the first step in what state media and some military experts believe will be the deployment of domestically built carriers by 2020.

Pubblicato in: Geopolitica Asiatica, Geopolitica Mondiale, Senza categoria

Trump telefona a Duterte. Entente Cordiale. Realpolitik.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2016-12-07.

 asia-sud-est-001

Basterebbe una occhiata superficiale alla carta geografica per comprendere l’importanza strategica delle Filippine.

Questa isola separa il Mare Meridionale della Cina dall’Oceano Pacifico. Il passaggio è obbligato attraverso alcuni stretti molto facilmente controllabili.

Chi dominasse le Filippine dominerebbe sia il Mar Cinese del Sud sia buona parte dell’Oceano Pacifico: non a caso alla fine dell’800 gli americani condussero una sanguinosissima guerra per prenderne possesso. Dominio che restò incontrastato anche dopo che le Filippine si conquistarono la propria indipendenza.

Senza il controllo delle Filippine non sarebbe stata possibile la guerra in Vietnam.

Abbiamo aspettato qualche giorno a dare la notizia della telefonata di Mr Trump a Mr Duterte per osservare meglio le reazioni. La Cina non si è opposta. Per il momento si accontenta di ciò che ha raggiunto.

*

Negli ultimi anni la Cina ha aumentato la sua presenza militare nel Mare Meridionale della Cina costruendosi isole artificiali, subito munite di scali portuali ed aeroporti, e munite da un congruo numero di missili terra-aria e terra-mare.

Ne è scaturita una bega colossale.

Essendo isole artificiali dovrebbero appartenere a chi le ha costruite, anche tenendo conto che esse sono state erette in acque internazionali: questa almeno è la versione della Cina. Per tutti gli altri la versione è semplicemente opposta.

Sicuramente da un punto di vista militare le isole sono bersagli fissi, quindi facilmente colpibili, anche se la contraerea potrebbe far pagare scotti severi ad eventuali attaccanti. Per un attaccante, in ogni caso, sono una ben scomoda realtà. In ogni caso, il Mar Cinese del Sud non è più un lago americano.

In conclusione, sembrerebbe lecito asserire che siano opere quanto mai scomode. L’amministrazione Obama se le è viste nascere sotto il naso incapace di qualsiasi reazione politica ovvero militare: ma adesso che ci sono non sarebbe possibile non tenerne conto.

*

In questo contesto, sia pur sinteticamente riassunto, si colloca il deterioramento delle relazioni politiche, economiche e militari tra le Filippine e gli Stati Uniti, che non gradiscono per nulla né la forma di governo che i filippini si sono eletti né il netto rifiuto che esse hanno opposto alla loro visione etica e morale, né infine al fatto che il Presidente Duterte abbia lanciato una severissima campagna per il contenimento della diffusione della droga nel suo paese. A questo proposito, Duterte non ha fatto altro che passare il reato di spaccio degli stupefacenti a livello amministrativo: in parole povere, la polizia giustizia tutti gli spacciatori che trova. Invece dei circa diecimila morti annuali per droga ce ne sono quattromila circa di spacciatori, che per ovvi motivi non potranno più spacciare stupefacenti. Fa anche specie che un’Amministrazione dichiaratamente pro-aborto, decine di milioni di assassinii negli ultmi anni, cavilli sulla morte di qualche spacciatore di droga.

L’Amministrazione Obama ha incentrato su questo punto un severo contenzioso con le Filippine, e queste hanno semplicemente iniziato a rivolgersi alla Cina ed alla Russia, per concludere accordi politici, economici e militari.

Un incidente mortale su sei causato dalla marijuana.

Cina. Tolleranza zero con pubblici dipendenti drogati.

Filippine. Abbandonerebbero l’Occidente alleandosi con Russia e Cina.

Philippines’ Duterte wants to ‘open alliances’ with Russia, China

Philippine president threatens to exit UN over drug campaign criticism.

Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte threatens to leave UN.

Philippines war on drugs: ‘1,900 killed’ amid crackdown

*

La possibilità concreta che le Filippine cambino schieramento è tutt’altro che remota, anzi. Con tutte le conseguenze geopolitiche facilmente intuibili.

«In five months in office, Duterte has upended Philippine foreign policy by berating the US, making overtures towards historic rival China and pursuing a new alliance with Russia»

Così, gli americani, che non avevamo avuto remora morale alcuna ad appoggiare il regime di Ngo Dinh Diem oppure del generale Pinochet, corrono adesso il serio rischio di perdere le Filippine perché sono omofobe e non tollerano più a lungo la diffusione delle droghe sul loro territorio. Ed anche perché sono stanche di dover sopportare le bizze di Amministrazioni con le idee confuse.

Di questi giorni la notizia che Mr Trump, il presidente eletto, ha telefonato direttamente a Mr Duterte.

«10 minuti di telefonata tra Donald Trump e il presidente delle Filippine Rodrigo Duterte: la conversazione si è conclusa con un invito alla Casa Bianca ».

*

«US President-elect Donald Trump has invited Philippine leader Rodrigo Duterte to the White House next year during a “very engaging, animated” phone conversation»

*

Un briciolo di Realpolitik sta facendo capolino anche nel cielo di Washington.

Apriti Cielo!

Le sinistre di ogni tipo e razza sono insorte come un sol uomo, condannando il fatto a nome di “tutto l’Occidente“.

Tutto l’Occidente“?

A quanto risulterebbe il partito democratico è stato sonoramente battuto nelle ultime elezioni presidenziali negli Stati Uniti. Né sembrerebbe che i socialisti stiano poi molto meglio in Francia, donde stanno per essere scacciati ed anche in malo modo, né in Germania, ove hanno regolarmente perso larghe fette di elettorato nelle ultime cinque elezioni nei Länder.

Le sinistre al momento assommano a meno di un terzo degli Elettori dell’Occidente, e l’Occidente a meno di un sesto della popolazione del mondo.

E costoro, i perdenti, gli sconfitti, si arrogherebbero il diritto di parlare a nome dell’Occidente?

Fate Voi.

Nota.

Si è perfettamente consci che tutti coloro che vivono lucrando sul traffico illegale di stupefacenti odiano Mr Duterte, che scombina in modo radicale i loro affari. Si comprendono meno facilmente tutti coloro che pur non lucrando alcunché si scandalizzano dell’operato di Mr Duterte: piangono qualche spacciaore morto e non hanno nessuna pietà delle vittime della droga. È in corso una guerra, ed il presidente delle Filippine cerca di tutelare il proprio popolo. Ha finaco la mano leggera.

 


Rai News. 2016-12-03. Trump invita Duterte alla Casa Bianca. Il Presidente filippino insultò Obama: “Figlio di p…”.

Duterte è conosciuto come “Punitore” dei drogati, da quando è presidente la polizia sta facendo una lotta senza quartiere che ha fatto registrare oltre 3 mila vittime, e per aver insultato leader mondiali

*

10 minuti di telefonata tra Donald Trump e il presidente delle Filippine Rodrigo Duterte: la conversazione si è conclusa con un invito alla Casa Bianca. Come di consuetudine, il neo presidente Usa sta chiamando tutti i leader mondiali prima della sua investitura ufficiale prevista il 20 gennaio 2017. A seguire da quella data, Trump potrà iniziare a ricevere ospiti alla White House. L’invito a Duterte, però, ha scatenato forti polemiche, che vanno ad aggiungersi a quelle di Pechino provocate da un’altra telefonata avvenuta tra Trump e il presidente di Taiwan, Tsai Ying-Wen. L’incontro mai avvenuto con Obama Duterte si sarebbe dovuto incontrare con Barack Obama in Laos, ma l’evento fu annullato in seguito alle parole offensive che il presidente filippino pronunciò durante un comizio: “Obama è un figlio di puttana”. Forte dell’investitura popolare, reduce da una campagna elettorale aggressiva, Duterte si è persino paragonato al führer dicendo che sarebbe felice di far uccidere tre milioni di tossicodipendenti proprio come il dittatore naturalizzato tedesco fece con gli ebrei. Oltre a prendere come modello lo sterminio commesso da Adolf Hitler, il presidente delle Filippine ha spesso criticato Europa e Stati Uniti. “Sono degli ipocriti quando criticano la mia campagna anti-droga”, azioni di polizia nella quale sono già morte tremila persone al di fuori di ogni procedura giudiziaria. Duterte, 71 anni, ha vinto le elezioni a maggio dopo essere stato per un ventennio sindaco di Davao. Sta mantenendo le sue promesse: “una lotta spietata al narcotraffico nella quale almeno 100mila persone dovranno morire”. L’ondata di violenza poliziesca con la quale sta cercando di mantenere quanto dichiarato in campagna elettorale ha suscitato lo sdegno del mondo occidentale.

 


Aljazeera. 2016-12-03. Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte ‘gets Donald Trump invite’

Top aide describes seven-minute phone call between the two presidents as “very engaging” and “animated”.

*

US President-elect Donald Trump has invited Philippine leader Rodrigo Duterte to the White House next year during a “very engaging, animated” phone conversation, according to a Duterte aide.

Trump’s brief chat with the Duterte comes during a period of uncertainty about one of America’s most important Asian alliances, marked by Duterte’s hostility towards the US and his repeated threats to sever decades-old defence ties.

The call lasted just over seven minutes, Christopher Go, Duterte’s special adviser, announced on Friday.

Trump’s transition team had no immediate comment.

In his five months in office, Duterte has caused a stir by criticising the US, cursing President Barack Obama, making overtures towards China and pursuing a new alliance with Russia.

His diplomacy has created nervousness among some Asian countries, wary about China’s rising influence and America’s staying power as a regional counterbalance.

Duterte has praised China and told Obama to “go to hell” and called him a “son of a bitch” whom he would humiliate if he visited the Philippines.

The anger was unlocked after Obama expressed concern about possible human rights abuses in Duterte’s war on drugs.

Duterte had initially expressed optimism about having Trump in the Oval Office, saying he no longer wanted quarrels. But it has not tempered his rhetoric and he has continued to rail at what he calls US “hypocrisy” and “bullying”.

In an interview with Reuters news agency during the election campaign, Trump said Duterte’s comments showed “a lack of respect for our country”.

‘Trump of the East’

Sometimes referred to as the “Trump of the East” because of his blunt remarks, Duterte has threatened repeatedly to sever US-Philippine defence ties, saying he “hates” having foreign soldiers in his country.

Joint military exercises look set to be scaled back next year, as Duterte demanded, including the number of US troops involved.

A question mark hangs over a defence agreement, which allows US forces access to Philippine bases on a troop rotation basis.

A source who has advised Trump’s transition team on security policy told Reuters news agency last week that Trump would start a “clean slate” with the Philippines.

“He is perfectly capable of talking to Duterte in an open way without being wedded to previous policy failures,” the source said of Trump.

Duterte caused a stir when he visited China in October and announced his “separation” from the US.

He has said the US could not be trusted to support the Philippines if it were attacked, as mandated in a joint defence treaty.

Some experts, however, say Duterte’s appointment of special envoys to Washington suggest that despite his hostility, he intends to keep good ties.

Among those envoys is Jose Antonio, a multi-millionaire real-estate tycoon who bought the rights to name a new office tower in Manila “Trump Towers”.

 


The Guardian. 2016-12-03. Philippines’ deadly drug war praised by Donald Trump, says Rodrigo Duterte

Philippines leader says US president-elect felt drug war which has killed thousands was being fought ‘the right way’

*

US President-elect Donald Trump has praised Philippines leader Rodrigo Duterte for his controversial war on drugs in which thousands have died, Duterte said on Saturday following a phone call between the leaders.

The Philippine president called Trump on Friday evening to congratulate him on his victory and Trump wished him “success” in his controversial crackdown, in which 4,800 people have been killed since June, according to Duterte.

“He was quite sensitive also to our worry about drugs. And he wishes me well … in my campaign and he said that … we are doing it as a sovereign nation, the right way,” Duterte said in a statement.

An aide to the Philippines president earlier said Trump invited him to the White House next year during a “very engaging, animated” phone conversation.

The call lasted just over seven minutes, Duterte’s special adviser, Christopher Go, said in a text message to media that gave few details.

A statement from Trump’s team said Duterte congratulated the US president-elect and the two men “noted the long history of friendship and cooperation between the two nations, and agreed that the two governments would continue to work together closely on matters of shared interest and concern”. The statement, however, made no mention of an invitation.

Trump’s brief chat with the firebrand Philippine president follows a period of uncertainty about one of Washington’s most important Asian alliances, stoked by Duterte’s hostility towards President Barack Obama and repeated threats to sever decades-old defence ties.

In five months in office, Duterte has upended Philippine foreign policy by berating the US, making overtures towards historic rival China and pursuing a new alliance with Russia.

His diplomacy has created jitters among Asian countries wary of Beijing’s rising influence and Washington’s staying power as a regional counterbalance.

Duterte has praised China and told Obama to “go to hell” and called him a “son of a bitch” whom he would humiliate if he visited the Philippines.

The anger was unleashed after Obama expressed concern about human rights abuses in Duterte’s war on drugs, in which thousands have died.

Duterte initially expressed optimism about having Trump in the Oval Office, saying he no longer wanted quarrels. But he has continued to rail against US “hypocrisy” and “bullying”.

Trump told Reuters during the election campaign that Duterte’s comments showed “a lack of respect for our country”. But he also stressed the “very important strategic location” of the Philippines and blamed Obama for failing to take the time to get to know world leaders.

A source who has advised Trump’s transition team on security policy told Reuters last week the president-elect would start a “clean slate” with Duterte, and analysts see some similarities in their blunt style.

Duterte caused a stir when he visited China in October and announced his “separation” from the US. He has said Washington could not be trusted to support the Philippines if it were attacked, as mandated in a joint defence treaty.

In an article published just before the US election, Trump advisers Peter Navarro and Alex Gray blamed the breakdown on the Obama administration’s failure to intervene in 2012 when China seized the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, which the Philippines considers its fishing ground.

“Washington’s utter failure to uphold its obligations to a longtime, pivotal ally during one of its most humiliating crises has no doubt contributed to [Duterte’s] low opinion of American security guarantees – and his recent move toward a China alliance,” they wrote.

Some experts say Duterte’s appointment of special envoys to Washington suggest he aims to keep good ties.

Among the envoys is multi-millionaire real estate tycoon Jose Antonio, who bought the rights to name a new office tower in Manila “Trump Towers”.

US State Department spokesman John Kirby said he did not know whether the department had assisted in setting up Trump’s call with Duterte, but stood ready to provide such help.

Philippines expert Ernest Bower of the Bower Group Asia consultancy said it was likely the call was facilitated by Trump’s business partners in the Philippines and a core group of advisers, who include his children.

Bower said Trump’s election victory could offer Duterte a face-saving way to move back from his anti-US rhetoric, while Duterte could provide Trump with a way to stress the importance of Asian alliances, which he appeared to question during the campaign.

Murray Hiebert of the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that the Philippines would be chairing the 10-member Association of South-east Asian Nations (Asean) next year and it was common for the US to extend an invitation to the chair before the US-Asean summit.

Bower said this may have been fortuitous on Trump’s part.

“My guess is he was more interested in making a point – that he could deal with Duterte in ways Obama couldn’t – than in the strategic wisdom of driving alignment with the Asean chair ahead of the Asean and East Asian summits.”

 


The New York Times. 2016-12-03. Rodrigo Duterte Says Donald Trump Endorses His Violent Antidrug Campaign

MANILA — President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines said on Saturday that President-elect Donald J. Trump had endorsed his brutal antidrug campaign, telling Mr. Duterte that the Philippines was conducting it “the right way.”

Mr. Duterte, who spoke with Mr. Trump by telephone on Friday, said Mr. Trump was “quite sensitive” to “our worry about drugs.”

“He wishes me well, too, in my campaign, and he said that, well, we are doing it as a sovereign nation, the right way,” Mr. Duterte said.

There was no immediate response from Mr. Trump to Mr. Duterte’s description of the phone call, and his transition team could not be reached for comment.

Since his election last month, Mr. Trump has held a series of unscripted calls with foreign leaders, several of which have broken radically from past American policies and diplomatic practice. A call on Friday with the president of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen, appeared to be out of sync with four decades of United States policy toward China and prompted a Chinese call to the White House.

Mr. Duterte has led a campaign against drug abuse in which he has encouraged the police and others to kill people they suspect of using or selling drugs. Since he took office in June, more than 2,000 people have been killed by the police in what officers describe as drug raids, and the police say several hundred more have been killed by vigilantes.

The program has been condemned by the United States, the United Nations, the European Union and others for what rights organizations have characterized as extrajudicial killings. In rejecting such criticism from the United States this fall, Mr. Duterte called Mr. Obama a “son of a whore.”

In a summary of the phone call with Mr. Trump released by Mr. Duterte’s office on Saturday morning, Mr. Duterte said the two had spoken for just a few minutes but covered many topics, including the antidrug campaign.

“I could sense a good rapport, an animated President-elect Trump,” Mr. Duterte said. “And he was wishing me success in my campaign against the drug problem.”

Mr. Duterte added: “He understood the way we are handling it, and I said that there’s nothing wrong in protecting a country. It was a bit very encouraging in the sense that I supposed that what he really wanted to say was that we would be the last to interfere in the affairs of your own country.”

Mr. Duterte, who has said he was seeking “a separation” from the United States, a longtime ally, and has threatened to bar American troops from his country, also said, “We assured him of our ties with America.” He did not elaborate on that comment.

Mr. Duterte also said that Mr. Trump had invited him to visit New York and Washington, and that Mr. Trump said he wanted to attend the summit meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations next year in the Philippines.

Mr. Duterte has often been compared to Mr. Trump for his blunt speech and populist positions.

“I appreciate the response that I got from President-elect Trump, and I would like to wish him success,” Mr. Duterte said. “He will be a good president for the United States of America.”

Pubblicato in: Geopolitica Asiatica, Geopolitica Militare, Religioni

Duterte arrivato in visita a Pechino. Bud Bagsak non è stata dimenticata.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2016-10-20.

 2016-10-20__duterte__001

 «China’s President Xi Jinping has welcomed his Filipino counterpart Rodrigo Duterte on a visit to Beijing which he described as a “milestone”.»

Le Filippine da oltre un secolo sono nell’orbita politica e militare americana.

asia-sud-est-002

La loro importanza strategica è evidente. Costituiscono gran parte della corolla est di isole che chiudono il Mar Cinese del Sud dall’Oceano Pacifico. Non solo. Sono filippine anche le Isole Babyyan, che sembrerebbero essere state messe apposta in fila indiana per collegare le Filippine con Taiwan, dente cariato con pulpite purulenta della Cina. L’isolotto di Itbayat, dotato di sorgenti di acqua dolce, dista soltanto 170 kilometri da Taiwan. Se su tale isola fossero collocati missili terra-terra, Taiwan sarebbe vulnerabile da parte di missili di bassa gittata.

Non solo.

Lo Stretto di Luzon è alquanto ampio e ben si presta all’ingresso di flotte di navi da guerra dal Pacifico al Mar Cinese del Sud. Ma sotto la condizione che le Filippine siano schierate militarmente dalla parte di chi volesse oltrepassare lo stretto da est ad ovest.

*

Nel 1896 i filippini si rivoltarono contro la dominazione spagnola, ma la loro indipendenza fu effimera. Cacciati gli spagnoli, subentrarono immediatamente gli americani, legalizzando la situazione con il Trattato di Parigi del 1898, in cui le potenze di allora ratificarono il dato di fatto. La rivolta dei filippini proseguì per anni in una guerra sanguinosa contro gli americani che li avevano invasi, guerra terminata con la battaglia di Bud Bagsak del 15 giugno 1913.

«La guerra e l’occupazione militare delle Filippine trovò opposizioni anche negli stessi Stati Uniti, ispirando la formazione della cosiddetta “Lega anti-imperialista americana” il 15 giugno 1898. La guerra e l’occupazione provocarono vaste distruzioni e cambiarono l’entroterra culturale dell’arcipelago, con un numero di vittime stimato tra i 34.000 e un 1.000.000 tra i civili, la secolarizzazione delle istituzioni della Chiesa cattolica nelle Filippine, e l’introduzione della lingua inglese come linguaggio primario nell’istruzione, nel governo e nei commerci.

Con il “Philippine Organic Act” del 1902 ai filippini fu dato un autogoverno molto limitato.» [Fonte]

*

Chi avesse mai sperato che i filippini si fossero dimenticati la Rivoluzione Filippina avrebbe sbagliato grossolanamente. Chi avesse mai sperato che si fossero dimenticati dei loro morti si sarebbe sbagliato. Chi avesse mai sperato che si fossero dimenticati della loro religione si sarebbe sbagliato.

Se ne sono ricordati, eccome!

Ed alla prima concreta possibilità ne hanno tratto le conseguenze.

E chi mai avrebbe detto che il retaggio religioso, storico, culturale e sociale di una nazione potrebbe essere cancellato con un editto?

Solo un americano avrebbe potuto bersi questa storiella. Americano che adesso demonizza Duterte: lo maledice perché lo ha abbandonato, mandandolo anche “al diavolo”.


Bbc. 2016-10-20. Duterte in China: Xi lauds ‘milestone’ Duterte visit

China’s President Xi Jinping has welcomed his Filipino counterpart Rodrigo Duterte on a visit to Beijing which he described as a “milestone”.

*

Mr Duterte arrived on Tuesday for a four-day trip expected to boost trade and mend ties between the nations.

Both sides were ready to move on from a bitter row over islands in the South China Sea, a top Chinese official said.

The visit also shows Mr Duterte’s efforts to engage China as he moves away from the US, a long-time ally.

He has twice announced a “separation” of the countries, but a US official said no official request had been made to change their relationship.

Meanwhile, nearly 50 police officers who were involved in clashes with pro-China protesters outside the US embassy in Manila on Wednesday have been suspended. During the demonstration, a police van which came under attack drove into the crowd, knocking people down.

The dispute over the South China Seas did not take centre stage in Mr Duterte’s discussions with Chinese officials.

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Why is the South China Sea contentious?

“Both sides agreed that this issue is not the sum total of bilateral relations,” Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin told reporters after the meeting.

The two countries had agreed to seek “settlement through bilateral dialogue”, he said.

Mr Duterte and President Xi presided over the signing of documents covering several trade deals as well as co-operation in cultural, tourism, anti-narcotics and maritime affairs.

The Philippine Department of Trade and Industry Secretary Ramon Lopez said on Thursday that the deals to be signed during the week would amount to $13.5bn.

The relationship between China and the Philippines had worsened in recent years as both claim the Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.

The dispute reached a peak in July when an international tribunal sided with Manila and rejected Beijing’s claims.

Although he maintained a blustery position towards Beijing during his presidential campaign, Mr Duterte sounded a note of reconciliation shortly after taking power.

At the same time, Mr Duterte has said he would end joint military exercises with the US, admonished the US for criticising him over his bloody war against drugs that has been linked with thousands of extrajudicial killings, and said US President Barack Obama could “go to hell”.

On Wednesday, Mr Duterte told a cheering crowd in Beijing: “I will not go to America any more. We will just be insulted there. So, time to say goodbye my friend.”

On Thursday he repeated his pledge, telling Chinese and Philippine businesspeople: “I announce my separation from the United States. Both in military, not maybe social, but economics also. America has lost.”

“I’ve realigned myself in your ideological flow and maybe I will also go to Russia to talk to [President Vladimir] Putin and tell him that there are three of us against the world – China, Philippines, and Russia. It’s the only way,” Mr Duterte said.

But an unnamed US official told the AFP news agency that the US had “not received any requests through official channels to alter our assistance to or co-operation with the Philippines”.

The president of the Philippines also used his speech to mock American accents, saying the American “larynx is not greatly adjusted to civility” – captured in a video shot by a journalist from the Philippines in China on Thursday.

The BBC’s John Sudworth in Beijing said Mr Duterte appeared to have calculated that taking a less confrontational approach than his predecessor on the South China Sea dispute would help him secure aid from China.

For his part, Mr Xi welcomed the renewed friendship with the Philippines.

“I hope we can follow the wishes of the people and use this visit as an opportunity to push China-Philippines relations back on a friendly footing and fully improve things,” he said.

What does Duterte want from China?

China is the Philippines’ second-largest trading partner, with the latter supplying mostly electronic products but looking to diversify with more food exports for instance. Earlier this year, angry Chinese netizens called for a boycott of Filipino mangoes amid tensions over South China Sea claims.

The tensions also prompted Beijing to issue a travel advisory against the Philippines in 2014. Since then Chinese holidaymakers have flocked to elsewhere in south-east Asia; the hope is that they come back when Beijing lifts the advisory, which it has promised to do.

In a pre-visit interview with Chinese cable station Phoenix TV , Mr Duterte complained of inadequate military support from the US and said he planned to buy Chinese weapons and boats as part of a military equipment overhaul. “If China does not help us in this endeavour, we will find it hard,” he said.

Mr Duterte’s controversial war on drugs has attracted accusations of human rights violations by the West including the United States. But Beijing – no stranger to such criticism – has kept quiet, and has even pledged to support Mr Duterte.