Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Italia. Per la crisi non se, bensì quando. – Bloomberg.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-04-26.

2019-03-18__Bankitalia__001

I numeri sono drammaticamente semplici.

A fine dicembre 2017 il debito delle pubbliche amministrazioni ammontava a 2,263.479 miliardi, mentre a fine 2018 era 2,316.697 miliardi.

A fine febbraio 2019 era ulteriormente salito a 2,358.008 miliardi.

Dal 1° gennaio 2018 a fine febbraio 2019 il debito pubblico è salito di 94.675 miliardi di euro (differenza calcolata sulle ultime stime).

Italia. Istat. Ordini all’industria -2.7%, dall’estero -6%.

Debito pubblico è salito a 2,363.685 miliardi.

Lega al 37%. Elezioni anticipate ad ottobre.

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Il principale problema del debito sovrano non è tanto la sua emissione, quanto piuttosto il trovare gli acquirenti.

Occorrerebbe razionalizzare fermamente che l’Italia non è un’enclave impermeabile al mondo esterno: vive in un contesto sia europeo sia mondiale, e questo influisce notevolmente sulla politica economica del paese.

Il debito di per sé non sarebbe un problema: è un mezzo utilizzabile che si caratterizza per il fine per cui esso è stato contratto.

Un debito acceso per effettuare investimenti redditizi trova finanziatori in ragione della ragionevolezza del piano di investimento. Ma il debito contratto per finanziare spese correnti lascia molto ma molto tiepidi gli investitori.

Disgraziatamente, questa è la situazione italiana: quei 94.675 miliardi sono stati spesi per interventi assistenziali. Da questo punto di vista un anno di governo gialloverde sembrerebbe aver agito in modo non certo encomiabile.

Mentre il M5S è sceso dal 32.7% conseguito alle elezioni del 24 marzo 2018 alle attuali propensioni al voto del 21.7%, Lega è salita dal 17.4% agli attuali 32.9%, forse qualche cosetta di più: gli equilibri sono mutati velocemente e si sta avvicinando il momento in cui se ne debba prendere atto. Non è solo una questione di equilibri partitici: più il tempo passa e più emerge il problema finanziario ed economico.

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«We all know Italy’s next crisis is coming, it’s merely a question of when»

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«The country’s budget deficit is slipping out of control and Brussels will at some point have to address the increasingly likely breach of its fiscal rules (even if the EU is turning a blind eye while this month’s European parliamentary elections are taking place)»

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«The bond market is starting to wake up to the risk.»

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«The miss might well be too big for the European Commission to sweep under the carpet.»

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«Italian industrial orders fell 2.7 percent in March, and there’s little evidence of any recovery in the works»

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A maggio si voterà finalmente per il rinnovo dell’europarlamento, per la regione Piemonte ed in oltre 3,800 comuni italiani. Se le prospezioni elettorali sono usualmente ragionevolmente attendibili, i risultati usciti dalle urne sono invece elementi certi.

Dal nostro sommesso punto di vista, comprendiamo più che bene le preoccupazioni di Bloomberg: mentre i politici sono condizionati dagli equilibri nei quali debbono districarsi, i mercati sono decisamente più liberi nella scelta di dove e quando investire. Da molti punti di vista mercati e politica usano diversi metri di giudizio.

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Né si pensi che i mercati siano un ectoplasma evanescente:

Italia. Crisi in vista. Liquidità bancarie salite al 32%, 1,371 miliardi.

Gli italiani stanno aspettando con grande pazienza l’evolversi degli eventi.


Bloomberg. 2019-04-22. Italy Is an Accident Waiting To Happen

Bond investors are starting to position for a seemingly inevitable repeat of last year’s budget showdown between Brussels and Rome.

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We all know Italy’s next crisis is coming, it’s merely a question of when. The country’s budget deficit is slipping out of control and Brussels will at some point have to address the increasingly likely breach of its fiscal rules (even if the EU is turning a blind eye while this month’s European parliamentary elections are taking place). The bond market is starting to wake up to the risk.

The chances of Italy ever achieving its initial 2.04 percent deficit target for 2019 – already revised up to 2.4 percent – were always fanciful. But as the economy slips into recession, that newer figure looks dicey as well. The miss might well be too big for the European Commission to sweep under the carpet.

It’s not just the yearly deficit that’s headed in the wrong direction; the overall ratio of debt to GDP (sitting at 130 percent currently) may increase too. Italy is already the euro zone’s worst performer on that measure after Greece, and any deterioration will cause serious consternation in Brussels. The country is the region’s largest debtor, with more than 1.6 trillion euros ($1.8 trillion) of debt. It truly is too big to fail.

Italian industrial orders fell 2.7 percent in March, and there’s little evidence of any recovery in the works. The government has downgraded its growth forecast for this year to just 0.2 percent, closer to many independent estimates. This still looks too hopeful. No wonder some European Central Bank officials are wondering whether the euro area economy can rebound in the second half.

The Bank of Italy’s chief economist says the nation’s 2020 budget deficit will expand to 3.4 percent, breaching the EU limit, unless value-added tax is increased. Yet when Finance Minister Giovanni Tria made similar comments about the parlous state of Rome’s finances, he was swiftly put back in his box by the country’s populist rulers. This state of denial from the League-Five Star coalition is not going to end well. The government is going to have to address its finances in a convincing manner after the European elections if it is to avoid another bond rout.

The markets are just about starting to pay attention. Italian 10-year bonds have been very popular this year, but the yields on them have widened over the past week. In fairness, they’re not too far out of whack with other countries’ debt and are well below the highs they hit last year after the country’s political crisis exploded. We aren’t back in emergency territory. Nevertheless, investors are starting to position for what’s seen as an inevitable repeat of last autumn’s budget showdown between Brussels and Rome, which pushed Italy’s 10-year yields above 3.5 percent. Some banks such as Citigroup Inc. are urging caution.

While it may seem an age away, Moody’s Investors Service is due to review Italy’s Baa3 credit rating in September. That’s already the lowest rung of the investment grade scale and if the ratings agency cut it to junk, the consequences would be seismic. It would prevent many bond funds from holding Italian debt.

The greater returns you get for Italian debt over the other core European countries are there for a reason. As the risk increases, so will the spread.

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Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Germania. Merkel verso la crisi di governo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-06-14.

Merkel muss weg

Herr Seehofer, Ministro degli Interni tedesco, non si è presentato ad una riunione governativa sui migranti, nel corso della quale avrebbe dovuto tenere un lungo intervento.

I media iniziano a parlare apertamente di crisi del Governo Merkel.

Al momento resta veramente difficile dire se si tratti solo di un braccio di ferro, oppure siano iniziate le vere manovre per far dimettere Frau Merkel. Ma questa ultima ipotesi sembrerebbe essere quella corretta.

Riportiamo quindi in extenso i più significativi interventi sul tema.

Per la prima volta nella sua storia, l’Handelsblattt, giornale di Confindustria tedesca, riporta in prima pagina un cartiglio, seguito poi da un articolo al vetriolo.

«Crisis meetings in Berlin.

Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union, led by Horst Seehofer, halted a scheduled Bundestag discussion and went into separate meetings. The two allies have knocked heads on how to deal with refugees who want to enter Germany, but have already been registered in a different EU country. The CSU, which faces state elections in October, wants to bar these immigrants from coming in, but Ms. Merkel opposes this strict asylum plan. German media are running live blogs of the events.»

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Merkel facing revolt as conservatives demand asylum clampdown

«The chancellor is growing isolated as her party colleagues join her hawkish Bavarian allies in calling for tighter migration policies. If she fails to assert her authority, her days as chancellor could be numbered»

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«Angela Merkel faces fresh trouble from her Bavarian allies, the Christian Social Union, over her stance on the refugee question. This time around, though, the chancellor looks more isolated than ever, as more and more Christian Democrats side with the hardline Bavarians, abandoning their leader.

As the dispute escalates, the stakes are growing and could eventually bring Ms. Merkel’s chancellorship to an end. The issue is already dividing Europe, a split that’s now being exacerbated by the Bavarian CSU leader, Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, as he allies himself with other European leaders who oppose Ms. Merkel’s asylum policy, from Austria’s chancellor Sebastian Kurz to Italy’s new far-right interior minister, Matteo Salvini. ….

On Tuesday, CDU lawmakers in the Bundestag overwhelmingly supported Mr. Seehofer’s plan during an internal debate within the party’s parliamentary group. ….

In all, “75 percent of the group support Mr. Seehofer’s plan,” said Andreas Mattfeldt, a CDU politician from Lower Saxony. He said in the nine years he has been in the Bundestag, “I have never seen so many politicians voice their disapproval of the chancellor’s position so clearly.”»

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Bavarian conservative CSU defies Angela Merkel on migration policy

«Germany’s conservative bloc may be coming apart at the seams, as its Bavarian wing lines up behind Interior Minister Horst Seehofer and against the chancellor. It’s the greatest challenge ever to Merkel’s authority.»

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«Speaking to reporters after separate emergency meetings of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU and the Bavarian conservative CSU, regional CSU leader Alexander Dobrindt was “100 percent” in support of Interior Minister Horst Seehofer’s so-called master plan for migration. That includes turning away some people at Germany’s nation border – something Merkel has explicitly ruled out.»

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«But barring a breakthrough, Seehofer and Merkel — and with them the CSU and the CDU — are on a collision course.»

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«deputy Jan Korte spoke of a full-blown “governmental crisis.”»

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German interior minister pulls out of Merkel’s integration summit

«Germany’s interior minister, Horst Seehofer, has cancelled his participation in an integration summit hosted by Angela Merkel amid increasing signs of major disagreements between them over the country’s asylum policy.

The absence follows his decision on Tuesday to drop the launch of an “immigration masterplan” after the German chancellor refused to back a crucial point of the plan that would allow migrants deemed to be trying to enter the country illegally to be turned back at the German border, arguing that it would breach European law. She insisted the masterplan was still being discussed in detail.

Merkel has attracted criticism particularly within her CDU party for failing to back Seehofer’s push for stricter immigration rules amid cross-party concern that German asylum policy is in disarray.»

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Non abbiamo alcun elemento per inferire come finiranno le cose.

Ma un elemento sembrerebbe emergere chiaramente: il potere di Frau Merkel si sta disintegrando. Avere contro il 75% dei deputati non concorre a mantenere il Governo in sella.


→ Bloomberg. 2018-06-14. Merkel Courts a Government Crisis in Migration Clash With Allies

German Chancellor Angela Merkel refused to back down in a clash over migration policy with an allied party, heightening the risk of a political crisis that could threaten her 13-year hold on power.

Berlin’s government district was abuzz with speculation Thursday about who would blink first as Bavaria’s ruling party demands that Germany start turning away some refugees at the border, a measure the chancellor rejects. The dispute is part of a resurgent crisis over refugee policy, fueled by the electoral successes of anti-immigration parties across Europe.

Lawmakers from Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union broadly backed her stand that talks with other European countries on curbing illegal immigration should come first, according to two officials who attended a closed caucus meeting. Bavaria’s Christian Social Union, which is part of her governing coalition, says European solutions haven’t worked and it’s time for Germany to act alone.

“Both sides have a lot to lose if the coalition broke up,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg in London, said by phone. “Of course, such disputes are always dangerous as they can develop their own dynamic. But a compromise should be possible.”

Merkel’s Authority

A defeat for Merkel would undermine her authority with her party bloc and might ultimately render her a lame-duck leader and hasten her demise. At the CDU caucus, her stance received crucial support from former Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, now president of the Bundestag, or lower house, the party officials said.

The CSU, which has criticized Merkel’s open-borders policy since Germany’s refugee crisis began in 2015, said it’s risking a showdown to force a policy shift.

“We have a very serious situation on our hands,” Alexander Dobrindt, the CSU’s floor leader in the federal parliament, told reporters in Berlin. “Some are calling it a historic situation. We aren’t budging on our position.”

For now, both sides stepped back from the brink. Talks on a possible deal between senior CDU and CSU lawmakers are resuming later Thursday and CSU leaders plan to debate strategy on Monday. For her part, Merkel meets Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte on Monday with migration high on the agenda.

“All of us do want to work together,” Paul Ziemiak, a CDU lawmaker who has previously criticized Merkel’s migration stance as too liberal, told broadcaster NTV. “We all know that we depend on each other.”

Border Security

Merkel held more than two hours of inconclusive talks on Wednesday with Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, who heads the CSU and wants to turn back asylum seekers who already registered in another European Union country.

Bavaria’s ruling party, whose support Merkel needs to govern, is raising its voice as it confronts a challenge by the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany in a fall state election.

Seehofer emerged as Merkel’s most prominent domestic critic on migration during the refugee crisis when more than 1 million people arrived in Germany, most of them via Bavaria. He joined Merkel’s fourth-term cabinet in March as interior minister, the top federal law enforcement post.

Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, who won power last year on an anti-immigration platform, met Seehofer in Berlin on Wednesday and called for an “axis of the willing,” starting with Italy, Austria and Germany, to counter illegal migration.

Merkel, who met Kurz for separate talks, later said that could only be part of a broader approach. “The point is a pan-European solution,” she said.


Euro News. 2018-06-14. Germania, crisi migranti: governo a rischio

Si rischia una crisi di governo in Germania. Il Ministro dell’Interno, Horst Seehofer, leader della CSU bavarese, non cede e minaccia Angela Merkel di procedere in solitaria sulla politica migranti, rompendo così l’alleanza parlamentare con la CDU.

Oggetto del contenzioso è la decisione della cancelliera di bloccare il progetto di riforma della politica di asilo presentato da Seehofer, che vorrebbe il respingimento dei migranti in arrivo in Germania, già precedentemente registrati in un altro Paese dell’Unione europea.

“Per troppo tempo siamo passati di compromesso in compromesso, sulla questione della politica dei rifugiati, senza prendere decisioni fondamentali e chiare. Dobbiamo tenere sotto controllo la situazione in Germania”, ha dichiarato Markus Söder, primo ministro del Land bavarese.

La Merkel ha chiesto di attendere il Consiglio Ue di fine giugno, opzione che la CSU non vuole per ora prendere in considerazione.