Pubblicato in: Cina, Materie Prime, Problemia Energetici, Senza categoria

Cina. Incrementa le importazioni di carbone del 10%. Clima in non cale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-10-30.

gatto_001__

«China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year»

«Last year’s total was 281.23 million tonnes»

«the Chinese government may allow a relatively modest uplift in annual imports to around 300 million tonnes»

«China’s coal imports have already surged 9.5% in the first nine months of 2019 to 250.57 million tonnes, …. and at least 18.84 million tonnes of seaborne coal are due to arrive this month»

«With China typically bringing in about 7 million tonnes more a month on trucks and trains from Mongolia and Russia, total volumes are likely to reach 276 million tonnes well before the end of the year»

«The rise in imports comes even after Beijing has pledged to curb coal use to tackle persistent severe pollution in the world’s top energy market»

«Port prices for Chinese thermal coal with energy content of 5,500 kilocalories per kilogramme (Kcal) were around 575 yuan ($81.25) a tonne on Monday, while Australian coal of the same quality was sold at $53 a tonne FOB»

* * * * * * *

I cinesi sono persone pratiche e con i piedi ben posti sulla terra.

È del tutto naturale che usino il ‘clima’ quando ne vien loro un vantaggio economico, ma lo tengono nella debita considerazione quando si parlasse del rapporto benefici/costi.

Il carbone rilascia 5,500 kilocalorie per kilogrammo, ed il tutto per 53 Usd la tonnellata: è il combustibile meno oneroso. Poi, se è indispensabile per molte lavorazioni industriali in primis la produzione dell’acciaio, consente di generare energia elettrica a basso costo.

Sufficit. Il resto è aria fritta che lasciano volentieri all’occidente in recessione.

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Reuters. 2019-10-24. China’s 2019 coal imports set to rise more than 10%: analysts

China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, countering earlier expectations that shipments would be capped by Beijing at the same level as 2018.

China’s coal imports have already surged 9.5% in the first nine months of 2019 to 250.57 million tonnes, customs data shows, and at least 18.84 million tonnes of seaborne coal are due to arrive this month, according to vessel-tracking and port data compiled by Refinitiv.

With China typically bringing in about 7 million tonnes more a month on trucks and trains from Mongolia and Russia, total volumes are likely to reach 276 million tonnes well before the end of the year.

Last year’s total was 281.23 million tonnes.

“Signs are emerging of a modest recovery in coal import volumes into China, which has led to recent market speculation that the Chinese government may allow a relatively modest uplift in annual imports to around 300 million tonnes,” said Whitehaven Coal Ltd, Australia’s largest independent coal producer, in a note on Tuesday.

Energy consultancy IHS Markit expects that China may bring in around 320 million tonnes of coal this year.

Some Singapore-based coal traders forecast Chinese coal imports could reach at least 305 million tonnes.

The rise in imports comes even after Beijing has pledged to curb coal use to tackle persistent severe pollution in the world’s top energy market.

Last year it took drastic measures to cap its shipments, halting all clearance of coal cargoes at major ports in December, which sent imports plunging to just 10 million tonnes that month, down from an average monthly level of 22 million tonnes.

“Government priority at this moment is to boost the economy … Relaxing coal imports curb would help maintain a moderate coal price and therefore cut electricity prices in order to reduce energy costs for Chinese enterprises,” said Liu Xiaomin, analyst at IHS Markit in Beijing.

Analysts and traders warned that the customs authorities could still take such action however, and said they are closely watching for any change in import policy.

“The market is full of uncertainties at this moment. We have to wait until at least the end of October to see if a new policy will come out,” said a Beijing-based coal trader with a leading German power company.

IHS Markit’s Liu also warned the import policy may be adjusted anytime based on coal prices and the economic situation in China.

Still, buyers have not slowed their purchases, thanks to a large spread between domestic and imported coal prices and increasing demand for the fuel ahead of northern China’s heating season that kicks off next month, said three other traders with major power utilities and trading houses.

Port prices for Chinese thermal coal with energy content of 5,500 kilocalories per kilogramme (Kcal) were around 575 yuan ($81.25) a tonne on Monday, while Australian coal of the same quality was sold at $53 a tonne FOB.

Pubblicato in: Ideologia liberal

Merkel e ‘clima’. La fronda cresce e prende sempre più forza.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-09-29.

Germania. Große Koalition kaputt. Thinking the Unthinkable. 001

Il 24 ottobre 2021 la Germania tornerà alle urne. Due anni passano presto.

L’ultimo sondaggio di propensione a voto indicherebbe questi risultati, accanto ai quali tra parentesi riportiamo le percentuali conseguite nelle elezioni del 2017.

Union, ossia Cdu e Csu, 26% (32.9%), Sp 14% (20.5%), AfD 16% (12.6%), Fdp 8% (10.7%), Linke 8% (9.2%), Grüne 22% (8.9%).

L’attuale Bundeskanzlerin Frau Merkel ha dichiarato che non si presenterà per un nuovo mandato, e la formazione di una nuova Große Koalition sembrerebbe essere impossibile.

Come possano evolversi le cose di qui a due anni è cosa impossibile da prevedersi: l’unico elemento certo sarebbe quello che il nuovo cancelliere potrebbe anche mutare radicalmente la Weltanschauung politico economica tedesca, situazione che verosimilmente raccoglierà ridotta a pezzi.

* * * * * * *

Già adesso si iniziano a notare segni di scollamento nella politica sul ‘clima’. I Grüne sono in reflusso, ed i cittadini sembrerebbero essere sempre più insofferenti.

Germania. Energie alternative. Quasi tutto bloccato dai residenti.

Ma gli ostacoli principali alle politiche energetiche di Frau Merkel sarebbero quelli economici.

«German climate protection plans involving the closure of some coal plants might cost 1.2 billion euros ($1.32 billion) by 2030 without achieving the desired reductions in carbon emissions, an independent study said on Monday»

«A draft law detailing the plan to shut hard coal fired power plants by offering operators fiscal incentives in auctions, seen by Reuters on Sept. 5, showed Germany will start shutting coal plants from next year, under a long-term exit plan up to 2038»

«The government aims to meet a target of reducing carbon emissions to 55% of their 1990 level by 2030»

«“Because of planned price caps, more plants might have to be forced to close on top (of those awarded money in the closure auctions), which brings the risk of compensation lawsuits and delays,”»

«The draft law envisages that by 2022, around 12 plants run by operators including RWE, EnBW and smaller competitors would be shut, leaving 30 with 15 gigawatts (GW) capacity»

«Aurora said that an assumed maximum price of 150,000 euros compensation per megawatt – with taxpayers’ costs in mind – may achieve the first round of closures, with the desired outcome of idling old plants in north Germany not crucial for meeting demand in the industrial south»

* * * * * * *

Fare piani al 2038, ossia un arco di tempo di venti anni, presuppone la certezza che le attuali volontà politiche restino immutate, cristallizzate, almeno per tutto questo lungo lasso di tempo. Ma con l’ottobre 2021 Frau Merkel uscirà di scena e la depressione economica si sarà fatta sentire con tutta la sua forza.


German coal closure auctions could be costly, insufficient: study

FRANKFURT (Reuters) – German climate protection plans involving the closure of some coal plants might cost 1.2 billion euros ($1.32 billion) by 2030 without achieving the desired reductions in carbon emissions, an independent study said on Monday.

A draft law detailing the plan to shut hard coal fired power plants by offering operators fiscal incentives in auctions, seen by Reuters on Sept. 5, showed Germany will start shutting coal plants from next year, under a long-term exit plan up to 2038.

The government aims to meet a target of reducing carbon emissions to 55% of their 1990 level by 2030.

“Because of planned price caps, more plants might have to be forced to close on top (of those awarded money in the closure auctions), which brings the risk of compensation lawsuits and delays,” said the study from Aurora Energy Research.

The draft law envisages that by 2022, around 12 plants run by operators including RWE, EnBW and smaller competitors would be shut, leaving 30 with 15 gigawatts (GW) capacity.

Aurora said that an assumed maximum price of 150,000 euros compensation per megawatt – with taxpayers’ costs in mind – may achieve the first round of closures, with the desired outcome of idling old plants in north Germany not crucial for meeting demand in the industrial south.

But later on, the lawmakers might offer decreases down to 100,000 euros/MW up to 2030, Aurora said, stressing this was an assumption as the draft had not specified the levels yet.

Fewer operators might accept these pay-offs, causing undersubscribed auctions and necessitating ordered shutdowns that could cause more emissions and messy lawsuits that the exit plan was meant to avoid, Aurora said.

The country’s energy regulator will have to decide on mandated closures on the basis of the plants’ age.

After 2030, there will be no more compensation for plants over the age of 25 years.

Other factors that operators will bear in mind to prepare themselves for the auctions were raw material and wholesale prices as well as power demand in coming years, Aurora said.[EL/DE]

Pubblicato in: Demografia, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Unione Europea ed il mito del 2050. Cui prodest?

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-06-29.

2019-06-23__Destatis_popolazione_050__001

Four states block EU 2050 carbon neutral target

«Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, and Estonia prevented the EU from adopting a clear long-term climate neutrality goal at the summit in Brussels on Thursday evening (20 June).

The central and eastern European leaders could not get behind a draft text which said the EU should take measures “to ensure a transition to a climate-neutral EU by 2050”

Climate neutrality refers to an economy in which the emission of greenhouse gases caused by human activity is mostly prevented, and any remaining emissions are compensated through for example planting additional trees or capturing emissions and storing them.

That 2050 target seemed to gain momentum recently after the EU’s largest state, Germany, decided to support it.

Consensus is needed for leaders to adopt official conclusions.

Meanwhile at the summit, the leaders did agree in the text to submit a long-term climate strategy to the UN climate body in “early 2020”, and adopted a Strategic Agenda which identified climate action as one of the EU’s priorities.»

* * * * * * *

Tutte queste parole diventano immediatamente comprensibili leggendosi con cura il testo rilasciato dal Consiglio Europeo.

«The EU and its Member States remain committed to scaling up the mobilisation of international climate finance from a wide variety of private and public sources and to working towards a timely, well-managed and successful replenishment process for the Green Climate Fund»

La posta in gioco è il governo del Green Climate Fund, che dovrebbe essere finanziato con un minimo di duecento miliardi di euro all’anno.

Tuttavia i budget pluriennali devono essere deliberati alla unanimità, cosa che Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, ed Estonia hanno bloccato, con grande sollievo di molti, perché la maggior quota avrebbe dovuto essere elargita a Francia e Germania.

Ci si dovrebbero sobbarcare duecento miliardi all’anno per trenta anni per arrivare ecologicamente puliti al famoso 2050, ossia tra trenta anni. Ma duecento per trenta rende 6,000.

Adesso abbiamo in Europa Frau Merkel, Mr Macron, Mr Juncker, etc, ma sarà ben difficile che durino in carico fino al 2050. Nulla vieterebbe di pensare che a questi possano nel tempo subentrare governanti con visioni politiche diametralmente opposte. In Italia un governo gialloverde è subentrato a quello del partito democratico e pochi lo avevano previsto.

La conseguenza sarebbe solo che grandi investimenti sarebbero stati spesi senza costrutto.

* * * * * * *

«lunga promessa con l’attender corto / ti farà trïunfar ne l’alto seggio»

Con questa frase Guido da Montefeltro finì all’inferno, mentre gli eurocrati contano invece di arricchirsi.

Tra trenta anni tutti gli attuali over-65 saranno deceduti, e quindi non ne potranno materialmente godere dei promessi vantaggi.

Domandiamoci allora in quale mondo vivranno gli attuali ventenni, giunti alla soglia dei cinquanta.

L’unico dato sicuro è quello demografico, ed in questo ci aiuta Destati, l’Istituto di Statistica tedesco. Pigliamo in considerazione la Germania per alleggerire l’esposizione dei dati che sono peraltro estensibili a quasi tutta l’Unione Europea.

Destatis.

Al momento attuale, la popolazione tedesca ha 10.833 milioni di persone sotto i 15 anni, 54.165 milioni in età compresa tra i 15 ed i 64, e 17.779 milioni di over-65.

«Regarding the immigrant background, 22.5% of the country’s residents, or more than 18.6 million people, were of immigrant or partially immigrant descent in 2016 (including persons descending or partially descending from ethnic German repatriates).»

«In 2015, 36% of children under 5 were of immigrant or partially immigrant descent»

Il conto è semplice: dei 10.883 milioni di under-15 solo 6.933 milioni sono di stirpe germanica.

Il tasso medio di fertilità, 1.42, è sostenuto dalle nascite dagli immigrati: quello delle tedesche autoctone è poco sotto la unità.

Per il 2050 Destatis prevede una popolazione tedesca di 65.742 milioni, sotto la ipotesi W0, con una contrazione della popolazione autoctona dagli attuali 64.191 milioni a 42.027 milioni.

Però, di questi 42.027 milioni oltre 23 saranno over-65.

* * * * * * *

È naturale che si auguri a tutti ogni sorta di bene, ma le prospettive di vita dei tedeschi nel 2050 sono tutto tranne che rosee. Il termine ‘Germania‘ indicherà una realtà geografica, non più un popolo od una nazione.

Forse una cifra di tale portata potrebbe trovare destinazioni maggiormente proficue.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Problemia Energetici, Unione Europea

Germania. Cdu e Csu litigano sul piano di uscita dal carbone.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-06-26.

Germania. Laender 0021

«Conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Bavarian allies have called for Germany to phase out coal by 2030 but the government has insisted on keeping its 2038 target, in the latest sign of strain within her coalition»

«The call by Markus Soeder, the premier of Germany’s economic powerhouse state of Bavaria, could further test Merkel’s right-left coalition administration which has been shaken by policy disputes and dire results in European Parliament elections»

«The German climate targets could be reached by 2030 only if we massively speed up the coal exit»

«The government on Monday rebuffed Soeder’s proposal and said it would stick to its plan to exit coal by 2038 as recommended by a commission of experts who estimated the phase-out would cost 40 billion euros ($45.54 billion) at least»

«Bavaria has little to lose from speeding up the coal exit. It is home to only 5 of the more than 100 coal power stations in Germany and it has no coal mines»

«Soeder’s remarks also reflect alarm within the CSU at the rise of the ecologist Greens who came in second in an election in Bavaria last year and are the most popular party nationally according to polls»

«There are mounting doubts that Merkel’s conservative-led coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD) as junior coalition partners would serve its full term until 2021»

«Critics say her abrupt decision to phase out nuclear power in Germany after the Fukushima disaster in 2011 has driven up energy prices and increased Germany’s dependence on coal»

* * * * * * *

Gli ultimi sondaggi Insa danno la Cdu al 18% e la Csu al 6%, con i Grüne al 25%.

Poiché la Csu si presenta solo in Baviera, è evidente come la Cdu sia in forte svantaggio nei confronti dei Grüne nel resto della federazione tedesca.

Il nodo è il solito: Frau Merkel.

Adesso la Csu  tenta di destabilizzare il governo portandosi su posizioni verdi oltranziste, che sa più che bene quanto siano inattuabili.

«the phase-out would cost 40 billion euros ($45.54 billion) at least»

E di questi tempi anche la Germania deve iniziare a fare attenzione con le spese voluttuarie.

Poi c’è la Spd. Ridotta ai minimi termini, brancola alla ricerca di una strategia politica, come un pugile al ko tecnico.

Infine, a mesi si terranno le elezioni in tre Länder dell’est. ed i risultati si preannunciano come un bagno di sangue per la Große Koalition.

Un’ultima considerazione.

È nella logica delle cose che Sorella Morte mieta a piene mani le persone vecchie.

Nel 2038 è verosimile che quasi tutta l’attuale classe politica tedesca sia due metri sotto terra ovvero relegata in un gerontocomio. Secondo le proiezioni Destatis a tale data la popolazione tedesca autoctona sarà dimezzata.

Ci si domanda allora: che bisogno avranno quei superstiti di energia?


Reuters. 2019-06-24. Merkel’s Bavarian allies snub her coal exit plan

Conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Bavarian allies have called for Germany to phase out coal by 2030 but the government has insisted on keeping its 2038 target, in the latest sign of strain within her coalition.

The call by Markus Soeder, the premier of Germany’s economic powerhouse state of Bavaria, could further test Merkel’s right-left coalition administration which has been shaken by policy disputes and dire results in European Parliament elections.

“The German climate targets could be reached by 2030 only if we massively speed up the coal exit,” Soeder, whose Christian Social Union (CSU) is the sister party of Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU), told the Muenchener Merkur newspaper.

“In the end we must actually exit (coal) in 2030.”

The government on Monday rebuffed Soeder’s proposal and said it would stick to its plan to exit coal by 2038 as recommended by a commission of experts who estimated the phase-out would cost 40 billion euros ($45.54 billion) at least.

“We are determined to implement the recommendations of the coal commission,” government spokesman Steffen Seibert said on Monday.

Bavaria has little to lose from speeding up the coal exit. It is home to only 5 of the more than 100 coal power stations in Germany and it has no coal mines.

Soeder’s remarks also reflect alarm within the CSU at the rise of the ecologist Greens who came in second in an election in Bavaria last year and are the most popular party nationally according to polls.

Last year, Germany raised its target for the contribution of renewables to 65 percent by 2030 from 50 percent in a bid to reduce CO2 emissions by 55 percent over 1990 levels. It is set to miss a 2020 target aimed at cutting emissions by 40 percent.

There are mounting doubts that Merkel’s conservative-led coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD) as junior coalition partners would serve its full term until 2021.

The SPD suffered painful losses at the EU elections last month and have been under pressure to quit the coalition the reluctantly joined after election two years ago.

Their leader Andrea Nahles stepped down earlier this month as the party’s popularity in polls hit a record low.

Merkel’s climate policy has been controversial. Critics say her abrupt decision to phase out nuclear power in Germany after the Fukushima disaster in 2011 has driven up energy prices and increased Germany’s dependence on coal.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Energie Alternative, Problemia Energetici, Unione Europea

Germania. Abbandonare il carbone comporta aumenti del 20% agli utenti.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-02-02.

2019-01-30__carbone__001

«German consumers already currently pay the highest prices for electricity in Europe.»

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«The phasing out of coal-based power generation in Germany could push up electricity costs by 20 percent»

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«According to various studies on this topic, the phasing out of coal could raise the price of electricity on the stock exchange by around 20 percent or one cent per kilowatt hour»

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«Electricity will be more expensive anyway, because the expansion of renewables will be financed by the EEG (Renewable Energy Sources Act) levy and grid fees will rise»

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«The affected regions, where tens of thousands of jobs directly or indirectly linked to brown-and black-coal energy production, will receive €40 billion as compensation over the next two decades»

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«Only one eighth of the 7700-kilometre electricity grid expansion in Germany has been completed»

* * * * * * *

Passare dal carbone alle alternative comporta un aumento in bolletta del 20%.

Se questo aumento va a gravare immediatamente sull’utenza finale, si dovrebbero conteggiare anche gli aumenti indotti.

Il panettiere che cuoce il pane in un forno elettrico, pagherà la corrente il 20% di più, così come per la illuminazione e per qualsiasi elettrodomestico usi nella lavorazione. L’impastatrice elettrica consuma molto. Ovviamente, il prezzo del pane dovrà salire.

Ma similmente, l’officina meccanica che ha tutte le apparecchiature che funzionano a corrente elettrica si troverà una lunga serie di aggravi, e quindi dovrà aumentare i prezzi.

Infine, 6,000 kilometri di grid non son mica poi tanto pochi, e giù altri miliardi che se ne vanno.

* * *

Sembra impossibile, ma al momento è impossibile trovare un conteggio totale di tutti i costi riuniti in un unico schema.

Sorge quindi naturale una domanda.

Riusciranno i tedeschi a sopportare i pesi del passaggio da carbone ad alternative?

Sono in molti che ne dubitano fortemente.

Nota.

Un po’ cinicamente si potrebbe dire che se il piano si articola fino al 2038, tra due anni in Germania si terranno nuove elezioni politiche ed è tutto da vedere se questo piano risulterà essere ancora nell’agenda di quello che sarà il nuovo governo.


The Local. 2019-01-30. Electricity prices could rise by 20 percent due to coal withdrawal

The phasing out of coal-based power generation in Germany could push up electricity costs by 20 percent, according to experts.

That’s the findings from the RWI Institute who say Germany’s exit from coal is going to be expensive for consumers and taxpayers, the Rheinishe Post reported Tuesday.

Germans are already paying the highest prices for electricity in Europe, the newspaper reported. It came as around 9,000 employees of energy giant RWE Power wait for details on job cuts.

“According to various studies on this topic, the phasing out of coal could raise the price of electricity on the stock exchange by around 20 percent or one cent per kilowatt hour,” Manuel Frondel, energy expert at the RWI Leibniz Institute for Economic Research in Essen, told the Rheinishe Post.

For a three-person household with an annual consumption of typically 4000 kilowatt hours, this would mean €40 in additional costs per year.

“Electricity will be more expensive anyway, because the expansion of renewables will be financed by the EEG (Renewable Energy Sources Act) levy and grid fees will rise,” said Thilo Schaefer of the Institute of German Business.

Schaefer also said that in the medium term, getting rid of plants that use lignite or brown coal will eliminate a cheap way of generating electricity.

As The Local has reported, the Coal Commission has recommended phasing out coal by 2038 and shutting down around 12.5 of the 43 gigawatts of coal-fired power plant capacity by 2022.

The commission’s findings will now be passed on to the government, which is expected – barring a surprise – to follow the recommendations of the panel it set up.

Under the plan, several plants that use lignite or brown coal, which is more polluting than black coal, will be closed by 2022. Other plants will follow until 2030, when only 17 gigawatts of Germany’s electricity will be supplied by coal, compared to today’s 45 gigawatts. 

The last plant will close in 2038 at the latest, the commission said, but did not rule out moving this date forward to 2035 if conditions permit.

The affected regions, where tens of thousands of jobs directly or indirectly linked to brown-and black-coal energy production, will receive €40 billion as compensation over the next two decades.

Although more and more wind turbines and solar plants are being installed, they often do not supply enough electricity because they depend on weather conditions.

Can electricity consumers be relieved?

The Commission advises the federal government to relieve consumers of two billion euros in network charges. But it is still unclear how this will be done and whether the EU will participate. According to RWI expert Frondel, electricity tax could be reduced by around a third with two billion euros, i.e. from two cents per kilowatt hour to around 1.3 cents. “But it is still unclear how electricity consumers will be relieved,” Frondel said.

However, this would not assist the industry, experts say. “If the €2 billion were used to reduce the electricity tax, for example, the industry would not be helped because of its exemption from the electricity tax,” said Frondel.

The CDU Economic Council is also concerned. They say the electricity supply must remain secure and affordable and that the expansion of the grid must be accelerated. Only one eighth of the 7700-kilometre electricity grid expansion in Germany has been completed. Meanwhile, German consumers already currently pay the highest prices for electricity in Europe.

“The government will do everything it can to protect consumers from rising electricity prices by switching from coal to renewable energy,” said Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy Peter Altmaier, of the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU).

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Energie Alternative, Problemia Energetici, Unione Europea

Germania. Il business dell’abbandono del carbone.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-01-31.

brueghel il giovane. pagamento delle tasse. fisher_museum_of_art

«A government-appointed coal commission on Saturday set a 2038 deadline for Germany to shutter coal mines and electricity plants powered by black or brown coal»

Resta davvero difficile comprendere l’attaccamento dei liberal socialisti tedeschi al ‘clima‘ ed all’abbandono del carbone, che abbonda in Germania, se non si tenessero presenti alcuni dati ed alcune considerazioni. In quel momento tutto diventa chiaro, chiarissimo. Prima ripassiamo i dati.

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Al momento attuale la Germania produce corrente elettrica bruciando carbone per circa il 35% dei consumi. Il carbone è estratto sul territorio tedesco e la relativa industria di estrazione, trattamento ed applicazioni varie – per esempio la siderurgia – danno lavoro  circa 300,000 persone fisse ed a 100,000 altre avventizie.

Alcune considerazioni.

Considerazione numero uno. Il 2038 è tra venti anni. Frau Merkel e gli attuali politici si saranno da tempo ritirati, e nulla vieterebbe di pensare che quelli loro subentranti la pensassero in modo diametralmente opposto. Come argutamente diceva Herr Schäuble posso rubare tutto, la le miniere restano lì, ancorché chiuse.

Considerazione numero due. La Germania ha un problema demografico da spavento. Le femmine tedesche autoctone non figliano, non procreano. Destatis, l’Istituto federale di Statistica riporta una popolazione attuale di 80.8milioni di abitanti, dei quali 49.2 milioni sono i metà lavorativa, dai 20 ai 64 anni. Ma al 2038 la popolazione si sarà ridotta a 67.6 milioni, con 34.6 milioni di persone in età lavorativa. Se la popolazione totale sarà calata di 13.2 milioni, quella in età lavorativa sarà calata di 14.6 milioni di unità. Una perdita percentuale del 29.67%.

Ma ad un calo così consistente della popolazione attiva corrisponderà una proporzionale riduzione dei consumi energetici: a lume di naso, di un buon 30%.

Considerazione numero tre. Se si guardassero proiezioni più a lungo termine, i quadri dipinti da Destati sono ancor più foschi. Nulla quindi da stupirsi se in Germania si inizia a pensare ad una tassa sul nubilato.

Germania. Herr Spahn prospetta la tassa sul nubilato.

Basterà solo avere pazienza ed aspettare che i tedeschi arrivino alla fase di terrore. La storia insegna come siano levi nell’attesa ed iperattivi nell’emergenza.

Considerazione numero quattro. Realizzare i propri sogni ha un costo. Chi volesse proprio comparsi una Lamborghini dovrebbe dar fondo ai risparmi e tener presente che una simile automobile ha un costo di gestione non da poco.

Lasciare il carbone, che ricordiamo è estratto in patria, significa accollarsi le spese di chiusura, quelle di costruzione di nuovi impianti, ed infine pagare la bolletta energetica di acquisto dei combustibili sul mercato estero. E questo proprio quando la Cina ha dichiarato che incrementerà la produzione di energia da carbone di almeno il 25%.

Carbone. Consumi mondiali. I numeri parlano chiaro. La Cina.

Cina. Energie alternative solo se più economiche. Fine delle sovvenzioni.

Nordrhein-Westfalen presenta un conto da 11.5 miliardi per il carbone.

* * *

Aggiungeremo citando alcune informazioni, poi potremo concludere il ragionamento.

«There will be “significant” job losses as Germany phases out coal use by 2038 as part of efforts to combat climate change, energy giant RWE’s CEO Rolf Martin warned on Monday»

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«A government-appointed coal commission on Saturday set a 2038 deadline for Germany to shutter coal mines and electricity plants powered by black or brown coal»

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«It also recommended some €40 billion euros be set aside to help coal-reliant regions with the transition, including through retraining younger workers and early retirement schemes for others»

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«Energy companies can also expect billions in compensation»

* * * * * * * *

E se facessimo quattro conti della serva?

Chiudere le centrali elettriche alimentate a carbone, e con esse terminare l’estrazione del carbone, verrà a costare grosso modo quaranta miliardi di refusioni ai Länder, 40 miliardi per la costruzione delle nuove centrali non alimentate a carbone, 40 miliardi di refusione alle società estrattrici ed infine un trenta miliardi all’anno di acquisto di combustibili quali il gas naturale russo. Una rapida somma: centosettanta miliardi.

I tedeschi saranno ecologicamente puliti, anche se resteranno auto e camion, per non parlare poi del riscaldamento degli immobili, ma dovranno cavarsi dalle tasche un gran bella cifretta.

* * * * * * *

Ma donde li piglierà la Germania tutti quei soldi?

Banale la risposta.

Li pagheranno tutti i sodali dell’Unione Europea, Italia in testa.

Forse che gli stati membri dell’Unione verrebbero che la Germania continui a bruciare carbone, maleodorante e che sporca tutto?

Ma per un pura coincidenza del destino, tutte le società che gestiscono le energie alternative in Germania sono di proprietà di liberal socialisti. Hanno assunto solo e soltanto liberal socialisti. È in pratica cosa loro.

Questi, annusata l’aria di devoluzione, hanno pensato bene di trovarsi un posto di lavoro assicurato e redditizio.

Fiumi di denaro che saranno prudentemente investiti all’estero.

Fiumi di denaro pubblico che finiranno nelle loro capienti scarselle.

Les jeux sont faits, rien ne va plus.

Poi non ci si lamenti se gli identitari sovranisti crescono.


The Local. 2019-01-28. Energy giant warns of ‘significant’ job losses over Germany’s coal phase out

There will be “significant” job losses as Germany phases out coal use by 2038 as part of efforts to combat climate change, energy giant RWE’s CEO Rolf Martin warned on Monday.

“We can’t exactly say yet how many employees will be affected,” Martin told the Rheinische Post newspaper.

“But I expect a significant reduction as soon as 2023, which goes far beyond current planning and what can be done through normal fluctuations.”

A government-appointed coal commission on Saturday set a 2038 deadline for Germany to shutter coal mines and electricity plants powered by black or brown coal.

It also recommended some €40 billion euros be set aside to help coal-reliant regions with the transition, including through retraining younger workers and early retirement schemes for others.

Energy companies can also expect billions in compensation.

Coal, the dirtiest of all fossil fuels, last year accounted for more than 30 percent of Germany’s energy mix.

RWE, the biggest operator of coal-fired plants in Germany, has for years been warning of the negative impact the exit from coal would have on jobs and energy security in Germany.

Some 20,000 people are directly employed in the coal industry in Europe’s top economy.

It is now up to the German government to implement the commission’s recommendations.

A meeting between Chancellor Angela Merkel, Finance Minister Olaf Scholz and regional leaders to discuss the proposals is scheduled to take place on Thursday.

Germany’s reliance on dirty coal is in part down to Merkel’s decision in the wake of the 2011 Fukushima disaster to ditch nuclear power by 2022.

But the use of the polluting fuel has complicated Germany’s efforts to stick to targets for limiting greenhouse gas emissions, undermining Merkel’s role as a leading advocate of the global Paris Climate Agreement.

Under the commission’s plans, power plants in Germany using lignite or brown coal, which is even more polluting than black coal, would be closed by 2022.

Other plants will follow until 2030, when only 17 gigawatts of Germany’s electricity will be supplied by coal, compared to today’s 45 gigawatts.

The last plant will close in 2038 at the latest, the commission said, but it did not rule out moving this date forward to 2035 if conditions permit.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Problemia Energetici, Unione Europea

Nordrhein-Westfalen presenta un conto da 11.5 miliardi per il carbone.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-01-19.

nordrhein-westfalen. 001

Il Nordrhein-Westfalen è uno dei Land tedeschi che meglio evidenzia quanto il quadro politico sia evoluto nel tempo.

Nelle elezioni del 18 settembre 2005 la Cdu ottenne il 34.4%, la Spd il 40.0% ed i Grüne il 10.0% dei voti.

Nelle elezioni del 22 settembre 2009 la Cdu ottenne il 33.1%, la Spd il 28.5% ed i Grüne il 14.9%dei voti validi.

Nelle elezioni del 24 settembre 2017 la Cdu ottenne il 32.6%, la Spd il 26.0% ed i Grüne il 13.1%dei voti validi.

Secondo le più recenti propensioni al voto la Cdu si attesterebbe al 34%, la Spd al 21%, ed i Grüne all’11%. AfD varrebbe il 9%.

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L’elemento che salta agli occhi immediatamente è sia la sostanziale tenuta della Cdu e dei Grüne, sia il crollo della Spd.

Se è vero che a livello mondiale è in corso la devoluzione dell’ideologia liberal socialista, sarebbe anche vero il dover constatare la deindustrializzazione lenta ma costante e significativa di questo bacino economico. In altri termini, il declino della Spd in questa zone avrebbe due sostanziosi moventi, simultanei e sinergici.

L’industria pesante ha progressivamente lasciato questo enclave produttivo, sia delocalizzando le produzioni sia essendo stato acquisito da capitali stranieri interessati più al know-how che a mantener viva la produzione tedesca: nel converso non è stato possibile impiantare una qualche forma di nuova industria.

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L’attuale governo federale proprio non ha feeling con l’industria, che guarda financo con sospetto: è estasiato dalle nuove tecnologie al punto tale dal crederle già disponibili e non solo future. Le suppone anche economicamente gratificanti.

Di questi giorni Eurostat ha cacciato benzina sul fuoco rendendo pubblici i dati sulla produzione industriale.

«In November 2018 compared with November 2017, industrial production fell by 3.3% in the euro area and by 2.2% in the EU28 …. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest decreases in industrial production were observed in Ireland (-9.1%), Germany (-5.1%)»

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La Germania è in crisi o, più verosimilmente, in recessione.

I periodi della vacche grasse sembrerebbero essere terminati.

Prendiamo atto come proprio in un momento così delicato il Governo tedesco intenda abbandonare il carbone quale combustibile per alimentare le centrali elettriche. Se è vero che ognuno sia libero di fare ciò che vuole, sarebbe anche vero il ricordare come lo stato di salute dell’economia tedesca sia strettamente legato a quello dell’Europa e, quindi, anche dell’Italia.

I tedeschi hanno una grande abbondanza di carbone, ancorché buon quota sia costituita dalla lignite. Sarebbero da questo punto di vista autosufficienti energeticamente.

Abbandonare l’uso del carbone implica necessariamente la sostituzione con un qualche altro tipo di combustibile, che necessariamente dovrebbe essere importato.

Non a caso la Cina ha dichiarato di voler incrementare del 25% la quota di corrente elettrica prodotta bruciando carbone: è più economico di altri fonti energetiche.

Carbone. Consumi mondiali. I numeri parlano chiaro. La Cina.

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Il Land Nordrhein-Westfalen è uno dei grandi produttori tedeschi di lignite: la chiusura di questa industria estrattiva comporterebbe un gran danno per il sistema economico di questa enclave: il governo statale reclamerebbe quindi almeno 11.5 miliardi di Usd quali refusione alla chiusura coatta degli impianti, in ossequio al ‘clima’.

Il Governo federale pagherebbe così tre volte la bolletta energetica: il costo dei combustibili acquistati all’estero, i rimborsi di mancato guadagno in patria, i costi di impianto ed esercizio delle nuove centrali non a carbone.

Non solo.

Anche i Länder della Germania dell’est sono grandi estrattori di carbone: se refusione alla chiusura fosse dovuta al Land Nordrhein-Westfalen, anche i Länder orientale dovrebbero essere rimborsati.

Di rimborsi si potrebbe arrivare a delle cifre da capogiro: tra i trenta ed i quaranta miliardi di euro.

*

Stare alla moda ha un costo, come sanno bene tutte le giovin signore in tiro.

Ma ha un suo costo anche il voler seguire la moda di cambiar tipo di centrale elettrica al mutare dell’ideologia dominante.

Nota Importante.

«Supported by Germany and the EU».

In parole povere, l’Unione Europea, Italia compresa, dovrebbe assecondare i capricci di Frau Merkel, mettendo mano al portafoglio.


Reuters. 2019-01-15. Germany’s biggest state wants at least $11.5 billion for exiting coal

Duesseldorf (Reuters) – North Rhine-Westphalia, one of Germany’s coal-mining states, is demanding at least 10 billion euros ($11.5 billion) in structural support if coal-fired power stations are phased out, its economy minister said.

Germany is hammering out plans for how to abandon polluting coal stations in favor of renewables, which accounted for more than 40 percent of the energy mix last year, beating coal for the first time.

The German cabinet has appointed a coal commission to find a compromise on how operators of these assets and the regions they are located in could be compensated. The commission aims to wrap up its work on Feb. 1.

“For North Rhine-Westphalia, we expect a double-digit billion euro amount for structural change and infrastructure over the next decades,” North Rhine-Westphalia’s Economy Minister Andreas Pinkwart told journalists on Friday.

He said the exact sum could not be determined yet but added it would certainly be more than 10 billion euros. “Supported by Germany and the EU, the coal district can evolve into a model for how to safeguard energy and other resources.”

North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, is home to some of the country’s largest energy groups, including RWE, Uniper and Steag, which all operate coal-fired power plants.

So far, Germany’s governing coalition has agreed to spend 1.5 billion euros to help regions affected by the planned exit from coal.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Energie Alternative, Problemia Energetici

Carbone. Consumi mondiali. I numeri parlano chiaro. La Cina.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-01-14.

2019-01-09__carbone__001

«Weak demand in Europe and China along with ramping up of global output from recent capacity additions and upgrades will be the main overhang for EU coal prices next year»

*

«EU coal for 2019 increased 1.7% through Dec. 21»

*

«Coal use faces more headwinds from the EU’s emissions market. Carbon allowances tripled this year and are forecast to jump again in 2019 when market reforms to reduce a glut kick in next year»

*

«The story of coal is a tale of two worlds with climate action policies and economic forces leading to closing coal power plants in some countries, while coal continues to play a part in securing access to affordable energy in others»

* * * * * * * *

2019-01-09__carbone__002

La manfrina del carbone continua imperterrita.

Satellite images show ‘runaway’ expansion of coal power in China

«Extra 259GW capacity from coal in pipeline despite Beijing’s restrictions on plants. ….

Chinese coal-fired power plants, thought to have been cancelled because of government edicts, are still being built and are threatening to “seriously undermine” global climate goals, researchers have warned.

Satellite photos taken in 2018 of locations in China reveal cooling towers and new buildings that were not present a year earlier at plants that were meant to stop operations or be postponed by orders from Beijing.

The projects are part of an “approaching tsunami” of coal plants that would boost China’s existing coal capacity by 25% …. The total capacity of the planned coal power stations is about 259GW, bigger than the American coal fleet and “wildly out of line” with the Paris climate agreement

This new evidence that China’s central government hasn’t been able to stop the runaway coal-fired power plant building is alarming – the planet can’t tolerate another US-sized block of plants to be built ….

Other photographs show water vapour emerging from cooling towers where there was none before, such as at the Zhoukou Longda power station in central China, which indicatesa plant burning coal and generating electricity»

* * * * * * * *

La Cina brucia al momento il 55.98% del carbone mondiale per generare energia elettrica. Ma aumentando la produzione di corrente aumentando potenza e numero delle centrali a carbone salirà rapidament al 70%.

«coal plants that would boost China’s existing coal capacity by 25%»

Lo fa per il semplice motivo che il costo dell’energia generata con il carbone costa moto meno di tutte le altre soluzioni possibili.

Poi, per amore di quieto vivere proclama che in un futuro sostituirà il carbone con qualcosa di altro, ma nei fatti si comporta all’opposto. Sanno fare i conti: tutto qua.

China: No Wind Or Solar If It Can’t Beat Coal On Price

L’incontro di Davos si preannuncia essere un altro buco nell’acqua. E tra Gilets Jaunes e recessione sia Mr Macron sia Frau Merkel avranno cose ben più importanti a cui pensare: per esempio, la loro sopravvivenza fisica.


Bloomberg. 2019-01-06. Coal’s Heyday At $100 a Ton Passes in Europe With Curbs on Its Use

Price of the power generation fuel may drop 10% this year in Rotterdam as demand falls in Europe and China.

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Coal’s three-year run of blistering gains in Europe is set to end, clobbered by a combination of weakening demand and energy polices aimed at phasing out the dirtiest fossil fuel.

After prices more than doubled since 2016 as Asian importers drove demand, coal is expected to fall more than 10 percent to $76.50 a ton next year in Europe, a Bloomberg survey shows. That’s a far cry from October’s five-year high of $100 a ton.

A return to those levels any time soon may be difficult. Slowing growth in China and other Asian countries is damping demand at a time when India’s mines are set to churn out more supplies. In Europe, pressure to cut use of the fuel in power generation is intensifying, while the cost for polluting is near the highest in a decade and expected to climb further.

“Weak demand in Europe and China along with ramping up of global output from recent capacity additions and upgrades will be the main overhang for EU coal prices next year,” said Elchin Mammadov, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

Since its October high, year-ahead coal contracts on ICE Futures Europe have fallen as low as $83.70 a ton. That reflected an ebb in demand in China after it built up stockpiles needed for winter. In the same period, crude oil, a bellwether for energy prices, collapsed almost 40 percent along with concerns of weakening economic growth and a looming glut.

The global movement against climate change is spurring the push for cleaner alternatives to coal. This has led to several European Union countries setting dates by which they will stop burning the fuel altogether. Britain has committed to phasing out coal completely by 2025. Sweden and France plan to close their last plants by 2023.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government will in February publish a timetable for exiting the world’s most widely used power-plant fuel. The so-called Coal Commission is weighing whether to slow the pace of coal station closures after union leaders and industrial companies objected to rising energy costs.

Coal use faces more headwinds from the EU’s emissions market. Carbon allowances tripled this year and are forecast to jump again in 2019 when market reforms to reduce a glut kick in next year. The rising cost of pollution is likely to boost demand for natural gas, which emits half the carbon of coal.

A Year in the Life of Coal

EU coal for 2019 increased 1.7% through Dec. 21

Demand for coal in Europe has fallen steadily since 2012 and will drop 1.1 percent annually through 2023, International Energy Agency data show. It’s forecast to fall more than 2 percent a year through 2023 in the U.S. and Europe, while China demand will decline.

That contrasts with Southeast Asia and India, where consumption is seen expanding annually by at least 4 percent over the next five years. Newcastle coal, an Asian benchmark, is averaging $106 a ton in 2018, the highest since 2011, and is forecast to average about $95 next year, according to the median of seven estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Asian Appetite

Coal demand from Southeast Asia and India to continue through 2023

“The story of coal is a tale of two worlds with climate action policies and economic forces leading to closing coal power plants in some countries, while coal continues to play a part in securing access to affordable energy in others,” said Keisuke Sadamori, director of energy markets and security at the Paris-based IEA.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Problemia Energetici, Unione Europea

Polonia. Continuerà a bruciar carbone ben oltre il 2050.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-01-08.

Polonia 001.png

Tutte le comodità, per non parlare poi dei lussi, hanno un loro costo.

Una cosa è il desiderare un qualcosa, ed una totalmente differente l’essere disposti a pagarne i costi.

Se è vero che la Polonia genera energia elettrica usando per l’80% il carbone come combustibile, è anche vero che la estrae in gran parte da miniere locate sul suo territorio: in altri termini, è energeticamente sufficiente, almeno per quanto riguarda questo settore.

Sicuramente differenziare il combustibile usato sarebbe cosa del tutto ragionevole, ma servirebbe tenere presente che allora la Polonia dovrebbe importare la materia prima.

La scelta è davvero non facile.

Tra i molti aspetti da menzionare, uno salta immediatamente agli occhi. La Polonia ha un basso tasso di fertilità e soffre anche di un consistente fenomeno emigratorio. In altri termini, Nel lungo termine avrà una popolazione consistentemente ridotta e, con essa, sarà anche ridotta la richiesta energetica. Questo è un fattore i non poco conto nel progettare nuove centrali elettriche, dato anche il fatto che la loro costruzione richiede in media una decina di anni.

Ma non solo: a popolazione ridotta corrisponde anche un pil ridotto ed uno squilibrio tra vecchi e giovani, almeno nel periodo del transitorio.

Un precoce abbandono del carbone potrebbe esitare in un aumento insostenibile del costo dell’energia elettrica generata.

A latere, vi è il problema della riconversione di tutti gli addetti alla estrazione e trattamento del carbone. Problema questo non da poco.

«Currently, around 80 percent of Polish electricity is generated by burning coal»

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«Poland will not have stopped burning coal for energy production by 2050, a senior local politician predicted in an interview with EUobserver»

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«Witold Stepien, ‘marshal’ (a Polish local government term for head) of the Lodz region from 2010 until last month, told EUobserver that while he thought Poland would have “considerably less coal” in its energy mix by 2050, it will not have completely phased it out.»

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«”I don’t think by 2050 we can eliminate the use of coal to zero,” Stepien told this website through an interpreter. “We will need 10 to 15 years more.”»

* * * * * * * *

Mr Stepien è “a member of the Lodz regional assembly, affiliated with the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), and a member of the Committee of the Regions, a Brussels-based advisory institution

Se è vero che al momento attuale gli attuali dirigenti europei e taluni capi di stato siano totalmente a favore della decarbonizzazione dell’Unione Europea, sarebbe altrettanto vero ricordar sia che a maggio si voterà, sia che non è assolutamente detto che i governi subentranti abbiano eguale visione sul comparto energetico.


Eu Observers. 2018-12-22. Poland will burn coal beyond 2050, says local politician

Poland will not have stopped burning coal for energy production by 2050, a senior local politician predicted in an interview with EUobserver.

Witold Stepien, ‘marshal’ (a Polish local government term for head) of the Lodz region from 2010 until last month, told EUobserver that while he thought Poland would have “considerably less coal” in its energy mix by 2050, it will not have completely phased it out.

“I don’t think by 2050 we can eliminate the use of coal to zero,” Stepien told this website through an interpreter. “We will need 10 to 15 years more.”

Stepien is still a member of the Lodz regional assembly, affiliated with the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), and a member of the Committee of the Regions, a Brussels-based advisory institution.

But a coal phase-out date of somewhere around 2065 is not quite in line with what the European Commission has in mind.

The commission recently published a strategy for a carbon-neutral Europe by 2050.

EU climate commissioner Miguel Arias Canete (also EPP) was adamant when speaking to press at the UN climate change conference in the Polish city Katowice, earlier this month.

“It is clear we are going to decarbonise the economy. Not only the Polish, all the European Union is going to be decarbonised,” he said.

“What is pretty sure [is] that in 2050 coal will not be in the energy mix,” he said.

Canete stressed that the EU should assure a “just transition” for the European regional economies dependent on coal.

Stepien agreed. “We need to talk to people. The most important is the social acceptance of the transformation process,” he said.

“Every single person that works in the mine needs to be informed and shown the chances for the future that we create,” Stepien added.

But the question is whether that transition can take place fast enough.

In Stepien’s region, Lodz, there were more attractive jobs for people now working in coal mines, Stepien said.

But the situation was different for Silesia, the Polish region where the climate conference was held.

Not just because of economics, but also because coal is part of the region’s identity.

“The problem in Silesia has a cultural dimension,” said Stepien.

“It’s based on many generations,” he noted, adding that in Poland when people hear of Silesia, the first thing they think of is the coal mines.

“This is a process that will last for years. … I think it’s a process of at least two generations,” he said.

A coal phase-out of 2065 was “much more probable” than 2050, he added.

Despite political reluctance, moving away from coal can bring many benefits, supporters say.

That is because coal is not only bad for climate, but also for air quality.

Earlier this month the Health and Environment Alliance, a political pressure group, said that annually hard coal and lignite power plants caused some 5,830 premature deaths in Poland.

Currently, around 80 percent of Polish electricity is generated by burning coal.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Mondiale, Ong - Ngo, Problemia Energetici

Cina. Carbone. Davos. Fallito il piano Al Gore da 90,000 mld Usd.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-12-01.

2018-11-25__Davos 001

Tradizionalmente, a fine gennaio si teneva nella ridente cittadina di Davos il World Economic Forum.

«Il principale evento organizzato dal Forum economico mondiale è il forum che si tiene con cadenza annuale a fine gennaio presso la cittadina sciistica di Davos, nel Cantone dei Grigioni in Svizzera. L’incontro è a inviti e si tiene a porte chiuse, sebbene venga diffusa la registrazione di specifici eventi, come la sessione plenaria. In occasione dell’incontro, i vertici delle imprese associate alla fondazione incontrano una ristretta platea di leader politici e di organizzazioni non governative, esponenti della comunità scientifica, leader religiosi e giornalisti. Nei cinque giorni dell’evento sono oltre 200 gli eventi in programma, sui temi chiave del dibattito mondiale, quali conflitti internazionali, povertà e problemi ambientali» [Fonte]

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Business Insider. 2015-01-21. There’s A Plan Floating Around Davos To Spend $90 Trillion Redesigning All The Cities So They Don’t Need Cars


United Nations. 2015-01-22. Al Gore Explains in Davos What’s Next for Climate in 2015


Cnn. 2018-01-25. Al Gore: ‘We have a subprime carbon bubble’

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Per il 2019 il Meeting di Davos si sta movendo sussurrato: si fatica a trovarlo nei motori di ricerca.

Cgiar. World Economic Forum Annual Meeting – Davos 2019

«The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos-Klosters is the foremost creative force for engaging the world’s top leaders in collaborative activities to shape the global, regional and industry agendas at the beginning of each year. For over four decades, the World Economic Forum’s mission – improving the state of the world – has driven the design and development of the Annual Meeting objectives. Annual Meeting participants will come together to address the most pressing issues on the global agenda. They will do so in an exceptional atmosphere – the “Spirit of Davos” – based on interdisciplinary, informal and direct interaction among peers.»

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Non si parla più del piano di Mr Al Gore di ricostruire tutte le città senza automobili.

Era un piano da 90,000 miliardi di dollari: avete letto bene, novantamilamiliardi di dollari. Tutto grasso che sarebbe colato nele tasche dei liberal socialisti.

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«As levels of greenhouse gases reach a new record, concerns are growing about the role of China in global warming»

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«For years, the increase in the number of Chinese coal-fired power stations has been criticised»

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«China is also backing dozens of coal projects far beyond its borders»

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«The Chinese-supported coal projects are under way or planned as far afield as South America, Africa, southeast Asia and the Balkans»

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«Contracts and financing for these facilities are often not fully transparent»

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«In Serbia, one of the country’s largest coal-fired power stations is being expanded with the help of a loan from a Chinese bank and with the work being led by one of China’s largest construction companies»

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«In the next few months a lot of Chinese will come here and this will be a big challenge, …. With Chinese workers and Serbian workers, at the beginning we had some cultural problems but we have overcome them and there is now very good cooperation»

* * * * * * *

Alcune considerazioni.

– Nel suo intervento al Meeting di Davos del 2015 Mr Al Gore aveva chiaramente riportato come il business attorno al ‘clima‘ si aggirasse attorno ai 90,000 miliardi di dollari americani. Un volume di affari mostruoso.

– La allora dirigenza liberal al governo negli Stati Uniti e nei paesi europei si proponeva di stornare dai bilanci statali cifre di questa entità verso realtà ‘amiche‘, quali per esempio le agenzie, sottratte al controllo elettorale.

– L’elezione di Mr Trump pose fine a questo progetto , attirandogli addosso l’odio mortale dei liberal.

– Con la successiva caduta dei governi liberal socialisti in Europa il ‘clima’ è restato privo di appoggio politico, e sta semplicemente morendo.

– Il comportamento cinese è maieutico: a parole sostiene il ‘clima’, ma nei fatti viaggia a carbone.


Bbc. 2018-11-23. China-backed coal projects prompt climate change fears

As levels of greenhouse gases reach a new record, concerns are growing about the role of China in global warming.

For years, the increase in the number of Chinese coal-fired power stations has been criticised.

Now environmental groups say China is also backing dozens of coal projects far beyond its borders.

Coal is the most damaging of the fossil fuels because of the quantity of carbon dioxide it releases when it’s burned.

Last year, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached its highest level for the past 3-5 million years, according to the latest research by the UN’s weather agency, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

And last month the UN’s climate science panel said that coal must be phased out by 2050 if the world is to have any chance of limiting the rise in temperatures.

Greenhouse gas levels at new record high

Final call to halt ‘climate catastrophe’

What is climate change?

The Chinese-supported coal projects are under way or planned as far afield as South America, Africa, southeast Asia and the Balkans.

Contracts and financing for these facilities are often not fully transparent but campaign groups including Bankwatch have tried to keep track.

“You cannot be a world leader in curbing air pollution and at the same time the world’s biggest financier of overseas coal power plants,” the group’s energy coordinator Ioana Ciuta told the BBC.

According to Ms Ciuta, efforts to tackle the dirty air of Chinese cities have led many power companies to limit their ambitions for coal-fired power stations in China itself and to target their technology and labour overseas instead.

“By having China invest in over 60 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, it’s perpetuating a source of pollution that has been demonstrated to be harmful not just to the climate but also to economies,” she said.

No carbon capture

In Serbia, one of the country’s largest coal-fired power stations is being expanded with the help of a loan from a Chinese bank and with the work being led by one of China’s largest construction companies.

An hour’s drive east of the capital Belgrade, in the coal-rich Danube valley, construction has already started at the site, known as Kostolac B3.

An existing power station towers over the rolling landscape, a steady stream of pollution twisting from a massive smokestack, and conveyor belts ferry coal from a nearby open-cast mine at Drmno.

The power station is run by the national Serbian electricity company, EPS, which provides about 70% of the country’s power by burning coal – the rest comes from hydro-electric schemes.

Now, under a $715m (£560m) contract agreed by the Serbian government and Chinese President Xi Jinping, an extra unit is being added, which will bring 350MW of additional capacity with the latest “super-critical” technology.

When we visit, we catch a brief glimpse of a group of Chinese workers wearing hard hats on their way from the construction site to a vast set of accommodation blocks – by next year, some 1,500 Chinese staff will be here.

Safety signs and notice boards are written in Serbian and Chinese. Equipment and shipping containers carry Chinese labels.

I ask the EPS official running the project, Zeljko Lazovic, what he feels about such a large and important venture being in the hands of Chinese engineers and workers.

“In the next few months a lot of Chinese will come here and this will be a big challenge,” he says.

“With Chinese workers and Serbian workers, at the beginning we had some cultural problems but we have overcome them and there is now very good cooperation.”

When asked about the environmental cost of the new project, Mr Lazovic insisted it would meet all the EU’s standards on pollution by dust, nitrogen dioxide and sulphur.

However, the new unit will not be fitted with any carbon capture technology so it will fit into a pattern of Chinese-backed projects that will add to carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

‘Locked into high emissions’

Christine Shearer is an analyst with the group CoalSwarm, which tracks coal developments, and she is scathing about the implications.

“These projects are not compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5C or 2C,” she said, referring to the two targets of the Paris Agreement on climate change.

She says that Chinese financial institutions are filling a gap left by Western banks and agencies deciding to limit their involvement in coal.

“These projects, if completed, will lock the countries into high carbon-emitting infrastructure and volatile coal imports precisely at a time when prices for clean energy are starting to fall below that of coal power.”

We tried to contact the Export-Import Bank of China, which is providing the loan, and the China Machinery Engineering Corporation, which is leading the construction, but did not hear back.

For the Serbian power company, EPS, the attraction of a local supply of coal has combined with a cheap Chinese loan and the prospects of valuable exports of electricity.

Respiratory diseases

About 3,500 jobs depend on the Kostolac complex but some local people have become increasingly outspoken about the pollution in the area.

Momir Savic showed me how the conveyor belts carrying coal run close to the villages and he fears a further expansion of the operation.

“The quality of our air and water is very poor. We cannot grow fruit and vegetables. There is also a lot of noise. All this affects the health of people living here, many of whom have respiratory diseases,” he said.

EPS says it is spending hundreds of millions of euros on environmental protection but its track record clearly does not inspire trust.

Pera Markovic, a lawyer with Cekor, an environmental group, is critical of the company’s failure to limit pollution in the local area.

But he concedes that Serbia is heavily dependent on coal for its power.

For how long? “Decades,” Mr Markovic says.

That’s likely to be the same in many other countries too, whatever climate scientists say is needed.