Pubblicato in: Brasile, Cina, India, Russia

Brics. 13mo Summit, con novità. Vogliono un ruolo politico internazionale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-09.

BRICS 001

Il Club dei Brics è formato da Cina, Brasile, Russia, India e South Africa.

«Together, the five-nation group accounts for almost a quarter of the world’s total GDP and over 16% of world trade»

* * * * * * *

«Chinese President Xi Jinping will virtually meet his counterparts from Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa during the 13th BRICS Summit on Sept. 9»

«The leaders are expected to discuss issues such as counterterrorism, reforming multilateral organizations like the UN or the IMF, as well as the Covid-19 pandemic and regional developments»

«When the term was first coined, BRIC referred to the four prominent emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China. South Africa was added in 2010»

«Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will chair Thursday’s meeting, which will also be attended by Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa»

«India has outlined four priority areas for its chairship including reforms for multilateral organizations such as the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund, counterterrorism and using technology to achieve sustainable development goals, according to India’s Ministry of External Affairs»

«it is expected that Afghanistan could be on the agenda»

«The fate of BRICS has diverged since the first summit was held in Russia more than a decade ago. While China and India have grown exponentially, Russia, Brazil and South Africa have stumbled in exerting their influence on the global economy»

* * * * * * *

Cina. Un j’accuse ferocemente e brutalmente rude, e vero, contro gli Stati Uniti.

Cina. Si avvia alla maggioranza nelle Nazioni Unite.

Rappresentando il 25% circa del Pil mondiale ed il 16% dei commerci mondiali, i Brics si apprestano adesso a svolgere anche un ruolo politico globale. È questa una grande svolta.

La Cina da sola può contare su quasi la metà dei voti in aula alle Nazioni Unite, ed i Brics dovrebbero avere la maggioranza dei votanti.

L’operazione sul Fondo Monetario potrebbe essere più difficile, ma i Brics non dovrebbero poter essere ignorati più a lungo.

I tempi stanno mutando molto velocemente.

*


China’s Xi Jinping to attend virtual BRICS summit chaired by India

– Chinese President Xi Jinping will virtually meet his counterparts from Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa during the 13th BRICS Summit on Sept. 9.

– Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will chair Thursday’s meeting, which would also be attended by Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa.

– The leaders are expected to discuss issues such as counterterrorism, reforming multilateral organizations like the UN or the IMF, as well as the Covid-19 pandemic and regional developments.

*

Chinese President Xi Jinping will virtually meet his counterparts from Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa during the 13th BRICS Summit on Sept. 9, the country’s foreign ministry said Wednesday.

When the term was first coined, BRIC referred to the four prominent emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China. South Africa was added in 2010. Together, the five-nation group accounts for almost a quarter of the world’s total GDP and over 16% of world trade.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will chair Thursday’s meeting, which will also be attended by Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa. India currently holds the group’s rotating chairship.

India has outlined four priority areas for its chairship including reforms for multilateral organizations such as the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund, counterterrorism and using technology to achieve sustainable development goals, according to India’s Ministry of External Affairs.

“In addition to these areas, the leaders will also exchange views on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and other current global and regional issues,” the MEA said Monday.

While the Indian ministry did not specify which global or regional issues would be discussed, it is expected that Afghanistan could be on the agenda. Developments in Kabul are likely to directly impact China, India and Russia.

India’s national security advisor Ajit Doval will present at the summit.

Modi previously chaired the BRICS summit in 2016 in Goa. Last year, the meeting shifted to a virtual format due to the pandemic.

The fate of BRICS has diverged since the first summit was held in Russia more than a decade ago. While China and India have grown exponentially, Russia, Brazil and South Africa have stumbled in exerting their influence on the global economy.

Meanwhile, the relationship between China and India deteriorated last year following border clashes high in the Himalayas.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Banche Centrali. Alti tassi oppure alta inflazione. Possono scegliere come fallire.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-01.

Brüghel il Vecchio. La parabola dei ciechi.

«Se i fatti smentiscono la teoria, tanto peggio per i fatti», Hegel.

Fed. Non solo tapering. Il quantitative easing costituisce una bomba ad orologeria.

Canada. Bank of Canada inizia il ‘great exit’. Inizia il tapering.

Fed. Questa allarmante inflazione è proprio quello che avrebbe voluto evitare. – Bloomberg.

Inflazione. Sorella miseria si fa precedere dalla comare inflazione. Adesso anche l’UK.

Stagflazione. Uno dei tanti cigni neri che si aggirano come avvoltoi.

Fed. Che l’inflazione alta sia temporanea è un ‘article of faith’. – Bloomberg.

Usa. Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo +4.2% anno su anno. Fed in tilt.

USA. Crolla a 218k la generazione di nuovi posti di lavoro. Pronta reazione della Fed.

* * * * * * *

«Con il termine tapering si fa riferimento al processo di rallentamento del ritmo di acquisti mensile dei titoli di Stato (noto come Quantitative easing) da parte di una banca centrale. La parola Tapering è stata utilizzata per la prima volta nel 2013 dall’allora numero uno della Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, quando decise di alleggerire la fase di QE. Il termine Tapering non deve essere confuso con il “Tightening”, parola che invece sta a indicare un restringimento delle condizioni di politica monetaria, solitamente attraverso un aumento graduale dei tassi di interesse» [Sole24Ore]

«central bank asset purchases in the United States, Japan, the euro zone and Britain will slide to about $3.4 trillion this year from almost $9 trillion in 2020»

«The Fed plans to keep borrowing costs near 0% and maintain monthly asset purchases worth $120 billion until it sees “substantial further progress” towards full employment and its 2% flexible inflation target»

* * *

«Con alleggerimento o allentamento quantitativo, o anche facilitazione quantitativa, sovente con la locuzione inglese quantitative easing (o QE), si designa una delle modalità con cui avviene la creazione di moneta a debito da parte di una banca centrale e la sua iniezione, con operazioni di mercato aperto, nel sistema finanziario ed economico. ….

Il quantitative easing è uno strumento in grado di assicurare la permanenza dell’inflazione al di sopra di una certo valore-obiettivo. Il rischio di questa politica monetaria è il fatto che si riveli più efficace del previsto contro la deflazione nel lungo termine, portando ad un eccesso di inflazione a causa dell’aumento dell’offerta di moneta ….»

* * * * * * *

«Slowly but surely, central banks are signaling policy shifts»

«New Zealand now sees higher rates in second half of 2022»

«Canada already signaled a shift»

«Fed also hints at exit talk»

«Central banks are beginning to tip toe away from their emergency monetary settings, with South Korea following in the footsteps of New Zealand and Canada to flag a potential interest-rate increase»

«As vaccines roll-outs continue and economies reopen, traders have been slowly dialing up expectations on rate hikes or a slowing of asset purchases elsewhere too»

«The Bank of Korea became the latest on Thursday to signal a turn when Governor Lee Ju-yeol said policy makers are preparing for an “orderly” exit from its record-low interest rate at some point as the economy recovers»

«The shift in stance came a day after New Zealand’s»

«We can’t rule out that the tail may wag the dog, influencing global market expectations of whether other central banks may also take a more hawkish turn»

«Financial markets have already brought forward pricing of the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike by almost a year since early February»

«Over the same period, market expectations from the Bank of England have switched from rate cuts by late 2022 to a rate increase»

«With major central banks embroiled in bond buying and other easing programs which traditionally get wound down first, most rate hikes remain some way off»

«The BOE has slowed bond-buying and signaled that it’s on course to end that support later this year»

«Norway is on track to start a hiking cycle, and Iceland has already begun»

«The Bank of Canada announced last month a reduction in debt purchases as it forecast a faster economic recovery that may pave the way for rate increases next year»

«The shift in monetary policy is starting»

«Hungary’s central bank said this week it was ready to deliver monetary tightening, and Russia, Turkey and Brazil have already hiked»

«The People’s Bank of China is holding the line with relatively disciplined stimulus»

«They will suffer from a double whammy as the Fed starts moving towards tapering»

* * * * * * *

Nuova Zelanda, Canada, South Korea, Regno Unito, Ungheria, Russia, Turkia, e Brasile hanno già iniziato il tapering oppure lo hanno annunciato come imminente. Ma il tapering si associa ad un aumento dei tassi di interesse.

Tuttavia, si faccia attenzione, il problema non è soltanto finanziario, di bilanciamento tra tassi di interesse ed inflazione.

Di interesse anche maggiore del pil è il numero dei nuovi posti di lavoro generati e la spesa per i consumi, che sono solo parzialmente influenzati dalle manovre finanziarie. Molto gioca la fiducia.

A parte il fatto che la Fed h sulle spalle 87 trilioni di debito totale degli Stati Uniti. Un grande fardello.

Nei fatti, prendiamo atto di questo trend che inizia a delinarsi.

*


Slowly But Surely, Central Banks Are Signaling Policy Shifts.

– New Zealand now sees higher rates in second half of 2022

– Canada already signaled a shift, Fed also hints at exit talk

*

Central banks are beginning to tip toe away from their emergency monetary settings, with South Korea following in the footsteps of New Zealand and Canada to flag a potential interest-rate increase.

As vaccines roll-outs continue and economies reopen, traders have been slowly dialing up expectations on rate hikes or a slowing of asset purchases elsewhere too. Markets are seizing on the tightening narrative, with bond yields and currencies fluctuating as investors recalibrate their bets.

The Bank of Korea became the latest on Thursday to signal a turn when Governor Lee Ju-yeol said policy makers are preparing for an “orderly” exit from its record-low interest rate at some point as the economy recovers. The shift in stance came a day after New Zealand’s.

New Zealand’s outlook was much more hawkish than expected and may yet signal a global shift, according to Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ Bank New Zealand in Auckland.

“We can’t rule out that the tail may wag the dog, influencing global market expectations of whether other central banks may also take a more hawkish turn,” she said.

Financial markets have already brought forward pricing of the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike by almost a year since early February. Over the same period, market expectations from the Bank of England have switched from rate cuts by late 2022 to a rate increase, while investors have almost abandoned bets on further European Central Bank reductions to instead price in a 10 basis-point upward move by the end of 2023.

                         Taper Talks

With major central banks embroiled in bond buying and other easing programs which traditionally get wound down first, most rate hikes remain some way off. But talk of a taper in asset purchases is catching on.

Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida told Yahoo! Finance in an interview Tuesday that there may be a point in upcoming policy meetings where officials can discuss scaling back purchases.

Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles said on Wednesday that it will be important for the central bank to begin discussing in coming months plans to reduce its massive bond purchases if the economy continues to power ahead.

The BOE has slowed bond-buying and signaled that it’s on course to end that support later this year. Australia’s central bank has set July as a deadline for deciding on whether to extend purchases.

Norway is on track to start a hiking cycle, and Iceland has already begun. The Bank of Canada announced last month a reduction in debt purchases as it forecast a faster economic recovery that may pave the way for rate increases next year.

                         Turning Point

“The shift in monetary policy is starting,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, Hong Kong based chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, who used to work for the ECB and International Monetary Fund.

Detailing its new outlook, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday published forecasts for its benchmark rate — for the first time in more than a year — that show the rate beginning to rise in mid-2022.

To be sure, this shift is still conditional.

RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said the bank’s outlook is predicated on the economy recovery continuing as vaccines roll out and the pandemic is contained. In a similar vein, BOK’s Lee said the board unanimously agreed to hold rates at a record low on Thursday as pandemic uncertainties persist.

The Fed’s Clarida also qualified his remarks around employment data and how inflation pressures play out, which he expects to be transitory.

It’s also the case that not every central bank is signaling a policy move, not least in the euro zone, where ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta said on Wednesday that he hasn’t seen a shift in the economic outlook to justify a reduction in bond purchases.

In emerging markets, the shift is splintering. Hungary’s central bank said this week it was ready to deliver monetary tightening, and Russia, Turkey and Brazil have already hiked. The People’s Bank of China is holding the line with relatively disciplined stimulus, while others continue to support growth as the virus continues to spread.

“There is growth divergence due to a much slower vaccination process in the emerging world and renewed waves,” said Garcia-Herrero. “They will suffer from a double whammy as the Fed starts moving towards tapering.”

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

G7. La Cina condanna le affermazioni del G7.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-11.

2021-05-07__ G7 001

Il Gruppo dei Sette, di solito abbreviato in G7, è un’organizzazione intergovernativa ed internazionale composta dai sette maggiori Stati ed economicamente avanzati dell’enclave liberal mondiale, ossia: Canada, Francia, Germania, Giappone, Italia, Regno Unito e Stati Uniti d’America.

Prendendo come riferimento l’anno 2019, ossia l’anno che ha preceduto quello della crisi innescata dall’epidemia di coronavirus:

Nel 2019 le nazioni afferenti al G7 avevano un pil di 36,828 miliardi Usd, ed un Pil PPP di 39,370 miliardi Usd.

I media liberal indicano i paesi del G7 come i più ricchi del mondo: ma questa è una menzogna.

Infatti, i paesi che costituiscono i Brics (ossia, Brasile, Cina, India, Russia, Sud Africa) avevano un Pil PPP di 41,017 miliardi Usd.

Nessuno si sogna di affermare che i paesi del G7 pesino economicamente poco: assommano una vasta parte del Pil PPP mondiale, che però risulta essere minore a quella evidenziata dai Brics. In altri termini, proprio non sono ‘il mondo’.

*

Si aggiunga un’altra considerazione.

I governi degli stati liberal occidentali reputano loro diritto e loro dovere l’ergersi a giudici della morale e dell’etica degli altri stati, che ovviamente non riconoscono loro codesto diritto.

Né può sfuggire la violenza con la quale negli Stati Uniti, in Germania ed in Francia la polizia tratti coloro che dimostrano in piazza avendo idee differenti da quelle governative. Se negli Stai Uniti la polizia apre spesso e volentieri il fuoco sui dimostranti, a nessuno è sfuggita la barbara repressione della dimostrazione del 1° maggio a Berlino, con 354 arresti di pacifici dimostranti etichettati come ‘negazionisti’. Un reato di libero pensiero.

Similmente, Dac ed Oecd sono governate dai paesi del G7, ma adesso contano per quanto valgono quegli stati che li governano, che in sede UN hanno da tempo perso la maggioranza.

* * * * * * *

«G7 foreign ministers said in a communique after a London summit that China was guilty of human rights abuses and of using its economic influence to bully others»

«China condemned on Thursday a joint statement by G7 foreign ministers that expressed support for Chinese-claimed Taiwan and cast Beijing as a bully, saying it was a gross interference in China’s internal affairs»

«Speaking in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said the statement made “groundless accusations” that were a gross interference in China’s internal affairs, which it firmly condemned»

* * * * * * *

Gli equilibri mondiali stanno mutando molto velocemente. In passato il G7 avrebbe ‘ordinato’, adesso si limita alla sola condanna.

Ma non ci si stupisca più di tanto se tra dieci anni il blocco asiatico condanni l’ideologia liberal e la bandisca dal mondo civile.

*


China condemns G7 statement censuring Beijing, supporting Taiwan

China condemned on Thursday a joint statement by G7 foreign ministers that expressed support for Chinese-claimed Taiwan and cast Beijing as a bully, saying it was a gross interference in China’s internal affairs.

G7 foreign ministers said in a communique after a London summit that China was guilty of human rights abuses and of using its economic influence to bully others.

In an unusual step, the G7 also said they supported Taiwan’s participation in World Health Organization forums and the World Health Assembly – and expressed concern about “any unilateral actions that could escalate tensions” in the Taiwan Strait.

Speaking in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said the statement made “groundless accusations” that were a gross interference in China’s internal affairs, which it firmly condemned.

The G7 as a group should take concrete action to boost the global economic recovery instead of disrupting it, he added.

China regards Taiwan as its own territory and opposes any official Taiwan representation on an international level. China has also stepped up military activities near Taiwan in recent months, trying to assert its sovereignty claims.

The G7 statement was warmly received in Taipei, where the government said this was the first time the foreign ministers had mentioned the island in their joint communique.

Taiwan’s Presidential Office thanked the G7 for its support.

Pubblicato in: Brasile, Devoluzione socialismo, India

Covid e fake news. Brasile, India ed Italia a confronto. Non facciamoci infinocchiare.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-10.

2021-05-09__ Covid Decessi Brasile 001

2021-05-09__ Covid Decessi India 001

2021-05-09__ Covid Decessi Italia 001

I media liberal occidentali hanno la grande caratteristica che conferisce la certezza quasi assoluta che quanto hanno riportato sia un colossale falso. Letti sotto questa ottica sarebbero financo utili a qualcosa.

Né dimentichiamoci l’Imprimatur che conferisce la soppressione su Facebook: segno palese quanto evidente che le informazioni censurate erano la perfetta verità.

Brasile ed India si stanno avviando alle elezioni politiche: i liberal odiano le loro attuali dirigenze, e stanno facendo carte false pur di denigrarli.

Secondo tali fonti di fake news, Brasile ed India sarebbero agli stremi, con una epidemia flagellante che starebbe per annientarli.

Ma togliamoci la curiosità ed esaminiamo da vicino i dati numerici.

Brasile.

Il Brasile ha 213,724,704 abitanti ed ha riscontrato 2,195 decessi da covid-19, ossia lo 0.001027% della popolazione.

India.

L’India ha 1,390,456,911 abitanti ed ha riscontrato 4,187 decessi da covid-19, ossia lo 0.000301% della popolazione.

Italia.

L’Italia ha 59,257,566 abitanti ed ha riscontrato 238 decessi da covid-19, ossia lo 0.000402% della popolazione.

Commento.

L’Italia ha percentualmente sulla popolazione più decessi dell’India, e circa la metà di quelli del Brasile.

U.S. Count Eases; India Reports Record Death Toll: Virus Update

Come dovevasi dimostrare, i media liberal occidentale propalano menzogne.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Materie Prime

Cina. Ferro. Importa circa il 70% del materiale estratto a livello mondiale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-03-16.

Iron Ore Guinea 001

«Iron ore demand recovering outside China, but will it be enough?»

«The price of spot iron ore for delivery to north China has fallen in recent sessions as the market struggles to work»

«On the bearish side is some restrictions placed on steel production in the major Chinese producing city of Tangshan»

«Rising port inventories in China, which buys about 70% of global seaborne iron ore, are also leading to caution over prices, especially since supply from top exporters Australia and Brazil seems robust enough»

«And a further question is just how much steel will China require this year, with industry expectations centring on a small increase on last year’s record production of just over 1 billion tonnes»

«On the bullish side are signs that seaborne iron ore demand outside of China is rising, as economies in Europe and Asia start to recover from the economic hit from the pandemic»

«The spot price for benchmark 62% iron ore delivered to China, as assessed by commodity price reporting agency Argus, ended at $164.35 a tonne on Wednesday, up slightly from the previous day’s close of $164.25»

«However, the price has dropped 8.4% since reaching a 9-1/2 year high of $179.40 a tonne on March 4, with concerns over the outlook for Chinese demand being the main culprit cited»

«It’s worth noting that despite the fall, spot iron ore remains at historically high levels, having languished below $100 a tonne from May 2014 to May 2019, and also having rallied some 106% since the 2020 low of $79.60 in March of that year»

«However, it’s worth noting that the bulk of China’s domestic iron ore output is of considerably lower quality than even the low-grade producers in Australia, meaning it requires more coking coal in order to be turned into pig iron and then crude steel»

«When calculated on a daily basis, China’s imports do appear to be moderating in recent months.»

«La quota cinese delle importazioni globali di minerale di ferro a marzo dovrebbe scendere a circa il 67,4%, dal 71,2% di febbraio e dal 73,5% di gennaio»

* * * * * * *


Con il sistema economico in piena espansione, la Cina necessita di oltre un miliardo di tonnellate di ferro all’anno.

La sua produzione interna è del tutto insufficiente e, per di più, l’estratto è di bassa qualità. A questo consegue un maggiore costo di raffinazione.

Al momento attuale, Australia e Brasile sono i suoi maggiori fornitori di estratto, ma i prezzi sono saliti da 79.60 Usd del marzo 2000 agli attuali 164.35 Usd per tonnellata. Ma la principale causa di questo rialzo sembrerebbe essere proprio nell’aumentata richiesta cinese.

A quanto potrebbe sembrare, i cinesi dovranno a breve dover affrontare il problema i come garantirsi la sicurezza degli approvvigionamenti di minerali, dal ferro al carbone fino al greggio.

Si delinea una situazione che potrebbe anche sfociare in attriti severi.

*


Column: Iron ore demand recovering outside China, but will it be enough?

The price of spot iron ore for delivery to north China has fallen in recent sessions as the market struggles to work through a competing series of both bullish and bearish factors.

On the bearish side is some restrictions placed on steel production in the major Chinese producing city of Tangshan in order to combat air pollution, although these measures are likely to be only temporary in nature.

Rising port inventories in China, which buys about 70% of global seaborne iron ore, are also leading to caution over prices, especially since supply from top exporters Australia and Brazil seems robust enough.

And a further question is just how much steel will China require this year, with industry expectations centring on a small increase on last year’s record production of just over 1 billion tonnes, but others question whether Beijing will provide as much stimulus in 2021 as it did during last year’s coronavirus pandemic.

On the bullish side are signs that seaborne iron ore demand outside of China is rising, as economies in Europe and Asia start to recover from the economic hit from the pandemic.

The spot price for benchmark 62% iron ore delivered to China, as assessed by commodity price reporting agency Argus, ended at $164.35 a tonne on Wednesday, up slightly from the previous day’s close of $164.25.

However, the price has dropped 8.4% since reaching a 9-1/2 year high of $179.40 a tonne on March 4, with concerns over the outlook for Chinese demand being the main culprit cited.

It’s worth noting that despite the fall, spot iron ore remains at historically high levels, having languished below $100 a tonne from May 2014 to May 2019, and also having rallied some 106% since the 2020 low of $79.60 in March of that year.

While the Tangshan order to close some steel blast furnaces this month has spooked the iron ore market, it’s unlikely that this measure alone will be enough to make a serious dent in iron ore demand in China this year.

Rather, the Tangshan measures show that air pollution is still an issue in China, and perhaps the steel industry needs to be prepared for similar crackdowns in other producing regions.

A focus on air quality can mean different things to different parts of the iron ore sector.

SHIFT TO QUALITY?

In theory, steel mills will want to maximise production and minimise emissions, which means a shift to higher quality iron ore and increasing use of beneficiated products such as pellets.

This benefits producers of these products but tends to hurt miners of lower quality iron ore.

However, it’s worth noting that the bulk of China’s domestic iron ore output is of considerably lower quality than even the low-grade producers in Australia, meaning it requires more coking coal in order to be turned into pig iron and then crude steel.

A reduction in the use of domestic iron ore may help seaborne suppliers of all grades, but much will depend on whether China’s steel mills do actually switch to higher quality inputs.

Currently, it seems that China’s steel mills are well supplied, with inventories at ports rising, reaching 129.5 million tonnes in the week to March 5, up from the low this year of 124.25 million in the week to Jan. 8.

China’s iron ore imports look to be steady in March from February’s levels, with preliminary data from Refinitiv showing expected seaborne arrivals of 85.29 million tonnes this month, compared with 85.24 million in February and 99.19 million in January.

When calculated on a daily basis, China’s imports do appear to be moderating in recent months.

However, it’s worth noting that imports by the rest of the world are rising, with ex-China arrivals estimated at 41.25 million tonnes in March, up from 34.43 million in February and 35.76 million in January.

China’s of global iron ore imports in March is expected to drop to around 67.4%, from 71.2% in February and 73.5% in January.

The question for the market is whether a recovery in the world ex-China is enough to offset what may turn out to be tepid growth in China.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. 2020. Produzione Industriale -10.8% anno 2020 su anno 2019.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-02-24.

Destatis__001

Alla fine, finalmente si iniziano a pubblicare i macrodati economici riportati anno su anno precedente.

Destatis ci informa

«that production in industry excluding energy and construction was down by 10.8% in price and calendar adjusted terms in 2020 compared with 2019»

Solo per comparazione, Ungheria +5.8%, Slovacchia +6.8%, Brasile +8.2%, Cina +7.3%, Singapore +14.3%, Turkia +9.0%.

Il problema non è il coronavirus, bensì il governo.

*


Destatis. Industrial production down by more than 10% in 2020. Automotive industry and mechanical engineering especially affected.

Press release No. 076 of 22 February 2021

WIESBADEN – Production in the German industry declined by slightly more than one tenth in 2020 year on year. Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that production in industry excluding energy and construction was down by 10.8% in price and calendar adjusted terms in 2020 compared with 2019. In the course of the year, industrial production saw a significant year-on-year decline during the first phase of restrictions imposed due to the corona crisis in April and May 2020 (-29.7% and -23.4%, respectively). In December 2020, however, industrial production was only 1.5% lower than in the same month a year earlier. The turnover of mining and manufacturing enterprises in 2020 was down by 10.1% on a price and calendar adjusted basis compared with the previous year. While domestic turnover declined by 8.3%, non-domestic turnover decreased by 11.9%.

Pubblicato in: Brasile, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Brasile. Scoperta del secolo. Senza siringhe e aghi non si inocula il vaccino.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-01-04.

2021-01-03__ Siringa 013

Per vaccinare una persona serve sicuramente il vaccino, ma altrettanto sicuramente servono una siringa ed un ago monouso.

Per vaccinare un miliardo di persone servono quindi un miliardo di siringhe ed altrettanto di aghi.

L’industria ha difficoltà a produrre una simile massa di device e, soprattutto, i prezzi imposti sono troppo bassi.

Questo è un problema in quasi tutto l’occidente.

* * * * * * *

«Brazilian syringe and needle makers warned on Wednesday the country’s coronavirus vaccination program was at risk after the government set auction prices too low and failed to draw bids for enough syringes to meet its requirements»

« Health Ministry sought to buy 331 million syringes at an electronic auction on Tuesday but purchased just 8 million, or 2.5% of its target, after it set reference prices below companies’ bids»

«That means that Brazil …. runs the risk of not having enough syringes to distribute vaccines»

«Brazil has recorded the world’s third highest number of COVID-19 cases at more than 7.6 million and the second highest death toll at almost 195,000 people»

«The reference prices set by the government have no relation to the reality that syringe companies are living»

«The Health Ministry offered 13 centavos per syringe while companies were asking for between 22 and 48 centavos depending on the item»

«the entire country would need some 320 million syringes which would cost at most 120 million reais ($230 million)»

*

«”Une rémunération de la saisie dans ‘Vaccin Covid’ est mise en place avec un forfait payé a posteriori pour chaque saisie effectuée. Cette rémunération sera effectuée une fois par mois aux alentours du 15 du mois pour les saisies relatives au mois précédent.»

«L’ensemble des tarifs sont précisés en dessous, avec ce fameux “forfait de 5,40 euros pour chaque injection»

* * * * * * *

Il caso del Brasile è emblematico.

Tutti concentrati sul vaccino, hanno scotomizzato il problema di aghi e siringhe.

Poi, per complicare le cose, pubblicano un bando con prezzo di 13 centavos per siringa, poco meno della metà del costo commerciale. Bando andato praticamente deserto.

Poi ci sarebbe anche la remunerazione dello straordinario del personale sanitario, ma non si può voler troppo dalla vita.

*


Brazil fails to secure syringes for COVID-19 vaccine jabs

Brazilian syringe and needle makers warned on Wednesday the country’s coronavirus vaccination program was at risk after the government set auction prices too low and failed to draw bids for enough syringes to meet its requirements.

The Health Ministry sought to buy 331 million syringes at an electronic auction on Tuesday but purchased just 8 million, or 2.5% of its target, after it set reference prices below companies’ bids.

That means that Brazil, where President Jair Bolsonaro has downplayed the crisis and which already lags neighbors Chile and Argentina in rolling out a vaccine, runs the risk of not having enough syringes to distribute vaccines.

Brazil has not yet approved a vaccine and there is no clear date to begin a vaccination program.

Brazil has recorded the world’s third highest number of COVID-19 cases at more than 7.6 million and the second highest death toll at almost 195,000 people.

The Health Ministry set the number of syringes and needles to be provided and an estimated price for the auction.

“The reference prices set by the government have no relation to the reality that syringe companies are living,” Paulo Henrique Fraccaro, head of Brazil’s medical supplies and equipment industry lobby group ABIMO, said by telephone.

The Health Ministry offered 13 centavos per syringe while companies were asking for between 22 and 48 centavos depending on the item, Fraccaro said.

Given that Sao Paulo, the richest state, has already bought 50 million syringes and plans to buy another 50 million, the entire country would need some 320 million syringes which would cost at most 120 million reais ($230 million), Fraccaro said.

The prospect of running out of syringes could cause panic in the country or lead to more costly imports, he added.

*


Pourquoi les médecins toucheront 5,40 euros pour chaque saisie dans le fichier des vaccinés

La saisie d’informations dans le fichier prenant quelques minutes, la Caisse nationale de l’assurance maladie (CNAM) estime qu’il “est légitime de valoriser ce travail supplémentaire”, rapporte 20 Minutes.

Le fichier de traitement de données des personnes vaccinées “SI Vaccin Covid”, qui sera mis en place à partir du 4 janvier, doit permettre au gouvernement de mieux organiser la campagne de vaccination. Mais il suscite la méfiance de certains internautes. Une page Facebook a ainsi partagé un e-mail envoyé par l’Assurance maladie aux médecins, en soulignant, dans son commentaire : “La sécurité sociale annonce qu’elle versera une ‘prime’ de 5,40 euros par injection”

Dans le courrier, il est notamment écrit : “Une rémunération de la saisie dans ‘Vaccin Covid’ est mise en place avec un forfait payé a posteriori pour chaque saisie effectuée. Cette rémunération sera effectuée une fois par mois aux alentours du 15 du mois pour les saisies relatives au mois précédent.” L’ensemble des tarifs sont précisés en dessous, avec ce fameux “forfait de 5,40 euros pour chaque injection saisie dans le téléservice ‘Vaccin Covid'”. 

“Légitime de valoriser ce travail supplémentaire”

Contactée par 20 Minutes, la Caisse nationale de l’Assurance maladie (CNAM) a confirmé que ce courriel avait bien été envoyé aux médecins, pour les informer des modalités de rémunération. Les mêmes informations sont d’ailleurs accessibles publiquement sur le site Ameli de l’Assurance maladie.  

Cette rémunération de 5,40 euros pour toute saisie dans le fichier “Vaccin Covid” est justifié selon Philippe Vermesch, président du Syndicat des médecins libéraux (SML), que 20 Minutes a interrogé. Il souligne un processus plus dense pour le vaccin contre le Covid-19 que contre la grippe par exemple, avec notamment une consultation pré-vaccinale, une surveillance d’une demi-heure après le vaccin et la saisie des informations dans “Vaccin Covid”. Cette dernière étape “prend du temps, avec une moyenne de cinq minutes supplémentaires par patient”, explique-t-il.  

En effet, comme détaillé dans le décret du 25 décembre, le médecin est chargé de rentrer des informations sur le patient (nom, prénoms, sexe, date de naissance, lieu de naissance) et des informations relatives à la vaccination (dates des injections, “informations permettant l’identification du vaccin injecté”, “précisions sur l’administration du vaccin”, “identification du ou des lieux de vaccination”…).  

La CNAM fait le même constat : “Il est légitime de valoriser ce travail supplémentaire au service du bon suivi d’une campagne de vaccination sans précédent.”  

A noter que ce forfait n’impacte pas les patients, puisque les frais de consultation et d’injection sont pris en charge à 100 % par l’Assurance maladie.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Brasile, Devoluzione socialismo

Brasile. Il sistema economico sembrerebbe essere in netta ripresa.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-12-06.

2020-12-04__Brasile 001

Il sistema economico brasiliano sembrerebbe essersi ripreso dalla crisi indotta dall’epidemia da Coronavirus.

Il pil ha evidenziato un buon +7.7% 2020Q3/2020Q2 (trimestre su trimestre) ed un -3.9% anno su anno, avendo ammortizzato quasi completamente il -9.7% precedente.

Ma segni di ripresa sostanziale provengono anche dagli altri macrodati.

«Economic activity in Brazil rose in September for a fifth month»

«The central bank’s IBC-Br index, often seen as a good proxy for broader gross domestic product, rose a seasonally-adjusted 1.3% in September from August, above the median 1.0% forecast in a Reuters poll of economists»

«It brought the cumulative increase over the third quarter to 9.5%, but still leaves activity 2.5% below its pre-pandemic level in February»

«They now see Q3 GDP rising 7.3%, up from 6.7%, and revised their 2020 GDP forecast to -5.5% from -5.8%»

«Economy Minister Paulo Guedes insists that Brazil will suffer less and will recover more quickly than many other countries due to government and central bank support»

* * * * * * *

Concordiamo pienamente con quanto detto dal Ministro Paulo Guedes: il Brasile sta emergendo dalla crisi

«due to government and central bank support».

Purtroppo, sono ben pochi gli stati che abbiano simultaneamente un governo capace ed efficiente ed un governatore della banca centrale in grado di saper fare il suo mestiere.

*


Brazil economic activity rises in September, points to solid third quarter rebound.

Economic activity in Brazil rose in September for a fifth month, a central bank survey showed on Friday, more than economists had expected, pointing to a solid recovery in the third quarter from the worst of the COVID-19 shock earlier in the year.

The central bank’s IBC-Br index, often seen as a good proxy for broader gross domestic product, rose a seasonally-adjusted 1.3% in September from August, above the median 1.0% forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

It brought the cumulative increase over the third quarter to 9.5%, but still leaves activity 2.5% below its pre-pandemic level in February, the central bank figures show.

Economists at Citi immediately raised their third-quarter and full-year GDP growth forecasts on the back of the data. They now see Q3 GDP rising 7.3%, up from 6.7%, and revised their 2020 GDP forecast to -5.5% from -5.8%.

“Overall, the main activity indicators (industrial production, civil construction, retail sales, services survey, etc) performed better than our expectations, triggering an upward revision,” they wrote in a note on Friday.

It was the index’s fifth monthly increase in a row, but because August’s rise was revised up to 1.4% from 1.1%, September’s increase was the smallest of them all.

Compared to September last year activity was down 0.8%, and on an accumulated 12-month basis down 3.3%, both on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the central bank said.

By this measure, Latin America’s largest economy is still 8.3% smaller than it was at its peak in December 2013.

Brazil’s economy is expected to register its biggest-ever annual slump this year, with the government forecasting a 4.7% fall. Economy Minister Paulo Guedes insists that Brazil will suffer less and will recover more quickly than many other countries due to government and central bank support.

Guedes reiterated his bullish view of the economy this week, saying it is in a “V-shaped” recovery and could grow by as much as 4% next year.

Pubblicato in: Brasile, Cina, Materie Prime

Brasile. Adesso è il terzo fornitore della Cina di petrolio.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-11-03.

2020-10-26__Brasile - Cina. 013

«Brazil jumped to China’s third-biggest crude oil supplier in September, import data showed on Sunday, as China’s independent refiners scooped up cheap supplies of the South American exporter’s relatively high quality oil»

«Imports from Brazil hit 4.49 million tonnes, up from 2.96 million tonnes a year earlier, data from China’s General Administration of Customs showed. Brazil overtook Iraq, which fell to fifth-biggest supplier»

«China’s January-September imports from Brazil were 33.69 million tonnes, up 15.6% from a year earlier»

«China makes up 70% of Brazil’s oil exports»

«Saudi Arabia regained the top spot in China’s oil purchases last month after losing that rank to Russia for the previous two months …. Imports from the kingdom were 7.78 million tonnes, equivalent to 1.89 million barrels per day (bpd), up from August’s 1.24 million bpd …. Saudi Arabia trailed at 63.57 million tonnes, which was 6.5% higher on year»

«Russia supplied 7.48 million tonnes last month, or 1.82 million bpd, up 18.6% from a year earlier and up 32.8% from August»

«For the first nine months of 2020, Russia remained the top seller with supplies totalling 64.62 million tonnes, 16% above year-ago level»

«China snapped up 13% more crude in the first nine months than a year earlier»

* * * * * * *


Alcuni elementi emergono vistosi.

– Il Brasile riesce ad esportare in Cina il suo petrolio, con un incremento del 15.6% rispetto lo scorso anno.

– La Russia fornisce alla Cina petrolio con un incremento del 16% rispetto un anno fa.

– Nei primi nove mesi del 2020 la Cina ha aumentato l’importazione di greggio del 13% rispetto un anno or sono.

*

Da questi dati non sarebbe lecito affermare che la Cina sia in via di ripresa dalla crisi pandemica: la Cina sta vistosamente crescendo a dispetto del Covid-19 e della crisi che attanaglia il mondo occidentale ed occidentalizzato.

*


Brazil soars to China’s No. 3 crude oil supplier in September.

Brazil jumped to China’s third-biggest crude oil supplier in September, import data showed on Sunday, as China’s independent refiners scooped up cheap supplies of the South American exporter’s relatively high quality oil.

Imports from Brazil hit 4.49 million tonnes, up from 2.96 million tonnes a year earlier, data from China’s General Administration of Customs showed. Brazil overtook Iraq, which fell to fifth-biggest supplier.

China’s January-September imports from Brazil were 33.69 million tonnes, up 15.6% from a year earlier, according to Reuters calculations based on the data. China makes up 70% of Brazil’s oil exports, the country’s state oil firm Petrobras said in July.

Saudi Arabia regained the top spot in China’s oil purchases last month after losing that rank to Russia for the previous two months, data showed.

Imports from the kingdom were 7.78 million tonnes, equivalent to 1.89 million barrels per day (bpd), up from August’s 1.24 million bpd.

Russia supplied 7.48 million tonnes last month, or 1.82 million bpd, up 18.6% from a year earlier and up 32.8% from August, according to Reuters calculations.

For the first nine months of 2020, Russia remained the top seller with supplies totalling 64.62 million tonnes, 16% above year-ago level. Saudi Arabia trailed at 63.57 million tonnes, which was 6.5% higher on year.

U.S. shipments soared to 3.9 million tonnes in September, versus a year-earlier 517,982 tonnes.

China snapped up 13% more crude in the first nine months than a year earlier, as refiners ramped up production to meet speedy demand recovery from the pandemic and stock up at record rates on cheap oil.

Below are details of imports from key suppliers, with volumes in metric tonnes.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Giustizia

Brasile. Bolsonaro nomina Kassio Nunes alla Suprema Corte.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-10-25.

Bolsonaro 001

La Federal Supreme Court del Brasile si presenta con queste parole.

«Current Structure of the Brazilian Federal Supreme Court.

The Brazilian Federal Supreme Court (STF) is composed by eleven Justices, chosen among native Brazilian citizens, who are more than thirty-five and less than sixty-five years old and have notable legal knowledge and soundness of character (article 12, § 3, IV, and article 101, both from the Federal Constitution).

Furthermore, citizens who are related in blood or in affinity to any current Justice of the Court, in ascending, descending or collateral line, until third degree, must not be appointed Justice of the Supreme Federal Court. (article 18 of the Internal Regiment of the Supreme Federal Court).

The process of nominating someone for the lifelong office of Justice of the Supreme Federal Court (article 95 from the Constitution combined with article 16 of the Internal Regiment of the Supreme Federal Court), described in article 101 from the Constitution, begins with the President of the Republic proposing the nominee, in accordance with all the constitutional requirements. The nominee is then submitted to a public hearing before the Senate Citizenship, Constitution and Justice Committee and needs to be approved afterwards by the absolute majority of the members of the Senate. Once approved, he can be designated Justice by the President of the Republic and take office in a solemm session. Once in Office, the Justice will only forfeit the position by resignation, compulsory retirement (at seventy years old) or impeachment. The Federal Cons­titution, by the article 52, II, assigned to the Federal Senate the competence to sue and sentence the Justices of the Supreme Federal Court, in crimes of malversation. The same article, in its sole paragraph, establishes that the condemnation of the denounced Justice depends on the approval of at least two thirds of the Senate members, being the respective utmost penalty the loss of his position and his prohibition on taking on a public office for eight years, notwithstanding other legal sanctions.

Plenary Composition of the Supreme Federal Court.

After several shifts in the quantity of its members, nowadays, the Supreme Federal Court is constituted by eleven Justices, who act in its Chambers as well as in its Plenary. It is woth noticing that three of its members are also part of the Superior Electoral Court, serving two of them as the Chief Justice and the Deputy Chief Justice of that Court.

Functioning of the Supreme Court.

The Supreme Federal Court, highest judicial body in Brazil, with seat in the Federal Capital, Brasília/Distrito Federal, has jurisdiction over the entire national territory. The Judicial Power is also composed by the following bodies: National Council of Justice; Superior Court of Justice; Federal Regional Courts and Federal Judges; Labor Court; Regional Labor Courts and Judges; Electoral Court; Regional Electoral Courts and Judges; Military Court; Military Courts and Judges; Courts and Judges of the States, the Federal District and the Territories. ….»


* * * * * * *

«The Brazilian Senate late on Wednesday approved the nomination of Kassio Nunes to the Supreme Court, swiftly signing off on right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro’s first nominee to the nation’s top judicial body»

«Nunes, a conservative and a former appeals court judge, was approved with 57 votes in favor, 10 opposed and one abstention»

«As a Catholic, Nunes’ nomination came as a surprise after Bolsonaro earlier vowed to pick an evangelical Christian for the bench»

«But the president has promised to nominate an evangelical justice next year. Supreme Court Justice Marco Aurelio Mello will step down next year on reaching the legal limit of 75 years old, creating a vacancy»

«During the nomination hearing, Nunes referenced God, prayers and psalms and said that his appointment to the Supreme Court was “a true calling.”»

«Nunes is 48 years old and will only be aged out of the court in 2047.»

* * * * * * *


Gli undici membri della Corte Suprema brasiliana restano in carica fino al settantacinquesimo anno di vita.

Con questa nomina, e con quelle prevedibili in futuro, la Suprema Corte brasiliana si avvia ad assumere caratteristiche giurisprudenziali di interpretazione testuale di costituzione e leggi, via via che i giudici ‘interpretativi’ sia avviano alla pensione e sono sostituiti.

Il Presidente Bolsonaro sta semplicemente attuando quanto promesso appena eletto:

«This is the beginning of Brazil’s liberation from socialism, political correctness and a bloated state»

Va di conserva che i liberal socialisti stiano masticando amaro.

*


Brazilian Senate approves Bolsonaro’s Supreme Court nominee.

The Brazilian Senate late on Wednesday approved the nomination of Kassio Nunes to the Supreme Court, swiftly signing off on right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro’s first nominee to the nation’s top judicial body.

Nunes, a conservative and a former appeals court judge, was approved with 57 votes in favor, 10 opposed and one abstention.

As a Catholic, Nunes’ nomination came as a surprise after Bolsonaro earlier vowed to pick an evangelical Christian for the bench.

But the president has promised to nominate an evangelical justice next year. Supreme Court Justice Marco Aurelio Mello will step down next year on reaching the legal limit of 75 years old, creating a vacancy.

During the nomination hearing, Nunes referenced God, prayers and psalms and said that his appointment to the Supreme Court was “a true calling.”

“I have conviction that the work – the good fight – is a manifestation of God that leads everyone in all professional occupations,” Nunes told a Senate committee on Wednesday, prior to his confirmation by the full chamber.

Nunes is 48 years old and will only be aged out of the court in 2047.