Pubblicato in: India, Materie Prime, Russia

India. Prosegue tranquilla a comprare petrolio dalla Russia. Non accetta le sanzioni di Joe Biden.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-04-04.

India 013

L’enclave liberal occidentale ha dichiarato guerra alla Russia, imponendo sanzioni ad effetto immediato irrispettose dei contratti in essere e fomentando il conflitto russo-ukraino cercando di allargare la Nato a quel paese e piazzandovi missili offensivi.

Ma il mondo libero si è dissociato da tali sanzioni e comportamenti, condannandoli. Solo per citare alcuni stati, Brasile, Arabia Saudita, Emirati Arabi Uniti, India, Cina nonché molti paesi afferenti l’Asean hanno rifiutato e condannato tali sanzioni. Sono quattro miliardi di persone e metà del pil ppp mondiale.

Nel mentre, il blocco europeo si è dissociato anche esso dall’America di Joe Biden che è rimasto isolato a voler imporre sanzioni anche sull’export russo del gas.

Tutto questo è avvenuto mentre la Russia ha iniziato una operazione speciale in Ukraina, che nel volgere di un mese ha bloccato i porti ukraini riducendo tale paese ad una mera realtà continentale, bloccandone tutto l’export.

Come risultato si è rafforzato il rapporto russo-cinese, che formano adesso una realtà euroasiatica economica, finanziaria, politica e, verosimilmente, militare. L’Eurasia può vivere tranquillamente senza utilizzare i servizi residui dell’occidente.

Joe Biden è disperato e furioso del suo isolamento e della sua impotenza. Si era proposto una operazione lampo e l’unica cosa che ha ottenuto sono gli altissimi prezzi che loro ed il mondo paga per gli effetti avversi delle sanzioni, in primis la inflazione e poi la carenza delle materie prime che i russi esportavano. Le sue recenti intemperanze verbali altro non sono che sfoghi di rabbia impotente.

Nel mentre, la popolarità di Joe Biden e dei democratici è crollata ed alle elezioni di midterm potrebbe essere probabile una loro cocente sconfitta.

Dopo aver fatto minacce spropositate alla Cina di non appoggiare la Russia, adesso se la prende con l’India.

Questa nazione infatti ha rinforzato i già stretti legami con la Russia, ed importa tranquillamente il petrolio incurante di cosa dica Joe Biden.

Gli energetici che la Russia non esporta più all’occidente li sta semplicemente vendendo all’interno del blocco euroasiatico, facendo la felicità di Cina ed India.

* * * * * *

«India will continue buying cheap Russian oil in the nation’s interest, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said, even as pressure mounts to isolate Kremlin»

«We have started buying, we have received quite a number of barrels — I would think three-four days supply and this will continue»

«India’s overall interest is what is kept in mind»

«Indian state refiners have been doubling down on Russian barrels that are being shunned away by European buyers since the beginning of war in Ukraine»

«The country has contracted Russian crude oil for deliveries over the next three to four months»

«Russia is offering more oil to India at a discount of as much as $35 a barrel on prices before the war»

«India is considering a proposal from Russia to use a system developed by the Russian central bank for bilateral payments, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Under the plan, which is still under discussion, rubles will be deposited into an Indian bank and converted into rupees, and the same system will work in reverse»

* * * * * * *


Russian foreign minister’s high profile visit puts India under pressure

– Like Beijing, New Delhi has abstained in UN votes condemning the Russian invasion but is now coming under increasing pressure from western nations to revise its studied neutrality 

– British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and US deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh, the chief architect of the series of sanctions against Russia, were in the Indian capital hours before Lavrov 

– India has been buying discounted Russian oil but imports are unlikely to increase substantially

* * * * * * *

As the war in Ukraine rages on, a visit by Russia’s top diplomat is putting India under pressure.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is in New Delhi to persuade India to hold on to its neutral line on the Ukraine war and bypass international sanctions to buy more of its crude oil through a rupee-ruble payment mechanism.

On Friday, he met his counterpart Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and expressed “appreciation” for India’s neutral stand on Ukraine. “India is taking this situation in the entirety of facts and not just in a one-sided way,” Lavrov said. He may also meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his visit.

But in high diplomatic drama, the Russian minister’s visit came just after the visit by British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, which was billed by British press as a push against Russia. U.S. deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh — one of the chief architects of sanctions against Russia — was also in town on a similar mission.

There is good personal chemistry between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Modi, who is one of only four foreign leaders to have been awarded Russia’s top decoration, the Order of St. Andrew.

In its 2021 National Security Strategy, Russia described relations with New Delhi as a “special and privileged strategic partnership,” and discussed them in the same paragraph as Russo-Chinese ties.

A day earlier, Lavrov was in China to met China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and reinforce ties.

“China-Russia relations have withstood the new test of the changing international situation, maintained the correct direction of progress and shown tenacious development momentum,” Wang said after their meeting, in a sign that China is continuing to stand by its “no limits” partnership with Russia.

Like Beijing, New Delhi has abstained in UN votes condemning the Russian invasion but is now coming under increasing pressure from Western nations to revise its stance.

                         India buying Russian oil.

There have been concerns about India ramping up its oil purchases from Russia at deep discounts.

During a visit to India this week, U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser for International Economics said the Biden administration did not want to see India crank up its crude oil purchases from Russia. 

Speaking from Washing on Wednesday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said India’s purchases of cheap Russian oil were “deeply disappointing” and again urged New Delhi to stand “on the right side of history.”

Likewise, Truss said Britain respects India’s decision to buy Russian supplies but she also discussed ways to cut India’s strategic dependence on Russia.

However, one analyst told CNBC India will not likely significantly increase its oil imports from Russia.

“Even with a discount, Russian oil is expensive because of increased insurance rates as a result of the war in Ukraine,” said Sunjoy Joshi, chairman of the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi.

India is the world’s third-largest consumer of oil after the U.S. and China, and imports about 80% of its energy requirements.

In 2021, India bought about 12 million barrels of oil from Russia. That’s between 2% to 5% of its crude imports, Samir N. Kapadia, head of trade at government relations consulting firm Vogel Group, previously told CNBC.

However, India’s Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri has said India bought 419,000 tonnes of crude oil from Russia in the first 10 months of the current fiscal year that began in April 2020, according to local reports. He reportedly told parliament this was just 0.2 % of the total import of 175.9 million tonnes.

Indian media reported this week that state-owned Indian Oil Corporation bought two shiploads of distressed Russian oil — 3 million barrels in each trade — through traders at deep discounts. Another firm, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation reportedly bought two million barrels of Russian crude Urals. 

“There are also not many refineries with the capacity to process Russian crude,” Joshi told CNBC, pointing out that the oil purchase would serve to send the signal to Moscow that India had not sanctioned Russia. 

                         Security concerns.

India, which depends largely on Russian military equipment as it faces a border standoff with China, will also want an update from Lavrov on delivery dates of pending arms deliveries, including the S-400 air defense system.

While heavily dependent on Russian arms since its first purchase of Mig-21 fighters back in 1962, India has steadily moved closer to the West in the past decade.

It is the centerpiece of the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific strategy to contain Chinese diplomatic and military aggression in the region. While its trade with the U.S. is over $100 billion, the comparative figure for Russia stands at about $8 billion.

India’s security needs cannot change overnight, said Joshi.

“The larger concern is security. India depends on Russia for legacy defense equipment. The spares all come from Russia. Who will replace that?” he said, adding that oil remains secondary in bilateral ties.

Addressing India’s defense issues, the U.S. deputy National Security Advisor implied that Russia was not dependable.

“The more Russia becomes China’s junior partner, the more leverage China gains over Russia, the less and less favorable that is for India’s strategic posture,” Singh told a local Indian TV channel on Thursday.

“Does anyone think that if China breaches the Line of Actual Control, that Russia would now come to India’s defense? I don’t,” he said. The Line of Actual Control refers to the 2,100-mile-long unmarked border that separates Indian-controlled territory from Chinese-controlled territory.

* * * * * * *


Russia and India will find ways to trade despite sanctions, says Lavrov

Russian foreign minister meets Narendra Modi and praises India’s refusal to condemn Ukraine invasion.

The Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, has afforded Russia’s foreign minister the honour of a meeting as Sergei Lavrov praised India’s refusal to condemn the Ukraine invasion.

Lavrov, who is visiting the country, predicted Moscow and Delhi would find ways to circumvent “illegal” western sanctions and continue to trade.

Modi had not met the string of other foreign ministers to arrive in Delhi in recent days, including the UK foreign secretary, Liz Truss, and the Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, so Lavrov looks to have been singled out for attention by the Indian leader.

India has abstained from successive United Nations resolutions censuring Moscow, calling only for an end to violence, and has increased its oil purchases from Russia, its biggest supplier of arms.

Truss, in India on Thursday, had tried to cast the battle as one between democracies and autocracies, but India, the world’s most populous democracy, does not seem willing to accept this, especially if it requires India to break with Russia on issues such as arms sales and a future realignment of the global security architecture in which the US has a less prominent role.

Lavrov said: “These days our western colleagues would like to reduce any meaningful international issue to the crisis in Ukraine … [We] appreciate that India is taking this situation in the entirety of facts, not just in a one-sided way. I can only say that the balanced position of India which is not influenced by blackmail or diktat methods inspires our respect.”

Lavrov also claimed Ukraine was showing increasing understanding that joining Nato was not an option. “Friendship is the key word to describe the history of our relations, and our relations were very sustainable during many difficult times in the past,” he said.

His Indian counterpart, Dr S Jaishankar, reiterated “the importance of cessation of violence and ending hostilities” and said: “Disputes should be resolved through dialogue and diplomacy.”

Lavrov said Russia’s military offensive in Ukraine was not “just about Ukraine, its neutrality”, but rather a “question of world order”. He suggested that the US had now suppressed all attempts at establishing autonomy by Europe, with the latter now completely in lockstep with Washington, a status to which he said Europe was reconciled.

In words designed to attract approval in India, he said the west’s real endgame was the re-establishment of a unipolar world.

Lavrov said the US and its allies were trying to conceal their true objectives, portraying their confrontation with Russia and some other nations as a “battle between democracies and autocracies”. However, according to the Russian foreign minister, the west itself has become one big autocracy with the US at the helm.

But there are also tensions in the relationship between India and Russia. Western financial sanctions have reportedly made it difficult for India to pay Russia for imports including arms, oil, rough diamonds and fertilisers. Russia has written to India’s defence ministry requesting clearance of back payments worth $1.3bn, according to the Economic Times newspaper.

India and Russia have been working on a rupee-rouble mechanism to facilitate trade and get around western sanctions on Russian banks, according to media reports. Lavrov told reporters he was confident the two countries would find a solution.

“Many years ago we started moving in our relations with India, with China, with many other countries from using dollars and euros to more and more use of national currencies. Under these circumstances this trend I believe will be intensified,” he said. “We will be ready to supply to India any goods which India wants to buy … and I have no doubt that a way will be found to bypass the artificial impediments which illegal unilateral sanctions by the west create.”

Lavrov arrived in Delhi on Thursday from China, where he had hailed Beijing as part of a new “multipolar, just, democratic world order”.

India shares western alarm over China’s growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region, and is a member of the so-called Quad alliance with the US, Japan and Australia.

The US is pushing the argument that Russia will end up the junior partner in its relationship with China and that the more leverage China gains over Russia, the less favourable that is for India.

* * * * * * *


India will continue to buy oil from Russia.

(Bloomberg) — India will continue buying cheap Russian oil in the nation’s interest, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said, even as pressure mounts to isolate Kremlin.

“We have started buying, we have received quite a number of barrels — I would think three-four days supply and this will continue,” Sitharaman said at a CNBC-TV18 event on Friday. “India’s overall interest is what is kept in mind.”

Indian state refiners have been doubling down on Russian barrels that are being shunned away by European buyers since the beginning of war in Ukraine. The country has contracted Russian crude oil for deliveries over the next three to four months, Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said last week.

Russia is offering more oil to India at a discount of as much as $35 a barrel on prices before the war, Bloomberg News reported Thursday.

“I would put my energy security first. If the fuel is available at a discount, why shouldn’t I buy it?” Sitharaman asked.

The comments come in the backdrop of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to the country. The South Asian nation has stayed away from outrightly condemning Russia despite piling pressure from the U.S. and its allies.

Crude at a discounted rate can help keep a check on prices in India, which imports 85% of its oil needs. Fuel retailers have started passing high prices to consumers, putting pressure on the government to slash fuel duties. It has so far resisted the move even as Brent crude hovers above $100 a barrel.

The finance minister also said that it would be better to have a Unified Payments Interface-like platform that can interact with another system, just like SWIFT — the Belgium-based cross-border payment system operator.

India is considering a proposal from Russia to use a system developed by the Russian central bank for bilateral payments, according to people with knowledge of the matter. Under the plan, which is still under discussion, rubles will be deposited into an Indian bank and converted into rupees, and the same system will work in reverse.

Pubblicato in: Brasile, Cina, India, Russia

Brics. 13mo Summit, con novità. Vogliono un ruolo politico internazionale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-09.

BRICS 001

Il Club dei Brics è formato da Cina, Brasile, Russia, India e South Africa.

«Together, the five-nation group accounts for almost a quarter of the world’s total GDP and over 16% of world trade»

* * * * * * *

«Chinese President Xi Jinping will virtually meet his counterparts from Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa during the 13th BRICS Summit on Sept. 9»

«The leaders are expected to discuss issues such as counterterrorism, reforming multilateral organizations like the UN or the IMF, as well as the Covid-19 pandemic and regional developments»

«When the term was first coined, BRIC referred to the four prominent emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China. South Africa was added in 2010»

«Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will chair Thursday’s meeting, which will also be attended by Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa»

«India has outlined four priority areas for its chairship including reforms for multilateral organizations such as the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund, counterterrorism and using technology to achieve sustainable development goals, according to India’s Ministry of External Affairs»

«it is expected that Afghanistan could be on the agenda»

«The fate of BRICS has diverged since the first summit was held in Russia more than a decade ago. While China and India have grown exponentially, Russia, Brazil and South Africa have stumbled in exerting their influence on the global economy»

* * * * * * *

Cina. Un j’accuse ferocemente e brutalmente rude, e vero, contro gli Stati Uniti.

Cina. Si avvia alla maggioranza nelle Nazioni Unite.

Rappresentando il 25% circa del Pil mondiale ed il 16% dei commerci mondiali, i Brics si apprestano adesso a svolgere anche un ruolo politico globale. È questa una grande svolta.

La Cina da sola può contare su quasi la metà dei voti in aula alle Nazioni Unite, ed i Brics dovrebbero avere la maggioranza dei votanti.

L’operazione sul Fondo Monetario potrebbe essere più difficile, ma i Brics non dovrebbero poter essere ignorati più a lungo.

I tempi stanno mutando molto velocemente.

*


China’s Xi Jinping to attend virtual BRICS summit chaired by India

– Chinese President Xi Jinping will virtually meet his counterparts from Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa during the 13th BRICS Summit on Sept. 9.

– Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will chair Thursday’s meeting, which would also be attended by Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa.

– The leaders are expected to discuss issues such as counterterrorism, reforming multilateral organizations like the UN or the IMF, as well as the Covid-19 pandemic and regional developments.

*

Chinese President Xi Jinping will virtually meet his counterparts from Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa during the 13th BRICS Summit on Sept. 9, the country’s foreign ministry said Wednesday.

When the term was first coined, BRIC referred to the four prominent emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China. South Africa was added in 2010. Together, the five-nation group accounts for almost a quarter of the world’s total GDP and over 16% of world trade.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will chair Thursday’s meeting, which will also be attended by Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa. India currently holds the group’s rotating chairship.

India has outlined four priority areas for its chairship including reforms for multilateral organizations such as the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund, counterterrorism and using technology to achieve sustainable development goals, according to India’s Ministry of External Affairs.

“In addition to these areas, the leaders will also exchange views on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and other current global and regional issues,” the MEA said Monday.

While the Indian ministry did not specify which global or regional issues would be discussed, it is expected that Afghanistan could be on the agenda. Developments in Kabul are likely to directly impact China, India and Russia.

India’s national security advisor Ajit Doval will present at the summit.

Modi previously chaired the BRICS summit in 2016 in Goa. Last year, the meeting shifted to a virtual format due to the pandemic.

The fate of BRICS has diverged since the first summit was held in Russia more than a decade ago. While China and India have grown exponentially, Russia, Brazil and South Africa have stumbled in exerting their influence on the global economy.

Meanwhile, the relationship between China and India deteriorated last year following border clashes high in the Himalayas.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Banche Centrali. Alti tassi oppure alta inflazione. Possono scegliere come fallire.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-01.

Brüghel il Vecchio. La parabola dei ciechi.

«Se i fatti smentiscono la teoria, tanto peggio per i fatti», Hegel.

Fed. Non solo tapering. Il quantitative easing costituisce una bomba ad orologeria.

Canada. Bank of Canada inizia il ‘great exit’. Inizia il tapering.

Fed. Questa allarmante inflazione è proprio quello che avrebbe voluto evitare. – Bloomberg.

Inflazione. Sorella miseria si fa precedere dalla comare inflazione. Adesso anche l’UK.

Stagflazione. Uno dei tanti cigni neri che si aggirano come avvoltoi.

Fed. Che l’inflazione alta sia temporanea è un ‘article of faith’. – Bloomberg.

Usa. Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo +4.2% anno su anno. Fed in tilt.

USA. Crolla a 218k la generazione di nuovi posti di lavoro. Pronta reazione della Fed.

* * * * * * *

«Con il termine tapering si fa riferimento al processo di rallentamento del ritmo di acquisti mensile dei titoli di Stato (noto come Quantitative easing) da parte di una banca centrale. La parola Tapering è stata utilizzata per la prima volta nel 2013 dall’allora numero uno della Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, quando decise di alleggerire la fase di QE. Il termine Tapering non deve essere confuso con il “Tightening”, parola che invece sta a indicare un restringimento delle condizioni di politica monetaria, solitamente attraverso un aumento graduale dei tassi di interesse» [Sole24Ore]

«central bank asset purchases in the United States, Japan, the euro zone and Britain will slide to about $3.4 trillion this year from almost $9 trillion in 2020»

«The Fed plans to keep borrowing costs near 0% and maintain monthly asset purchases worth $120 billion until it sees “substantial further progress” towards full employment and its 2% flexible inflation target»

* * *

«Con alleggerimento o allentamento quantitativo, o anche facilitazione quantitativa, sovente con la locuzione inglese quantitative easing (o QE), si designa una delle modalità con cui avviene la creazione di moneta a debito da parte di una banca centrale e la sua iniezione, con operazioni di mercato aperto, nel sistema finanziario ed economico. ….

Il quantitative easing è uno strumento in grado di assicurare la permanenza dell’inflazione al di sopra di una certo valore-obiettivo. Il rischio di questa politica monetaria è il fatto che si riveli più efficace del previsto contro la deflazione nel lungo termine, portando ad un eccesso di inflazione a causa dell’aumento dell’offerta di moneta ….»

* * * * * * *

«Slowly but surely, central banks are signaling policy shifts»

«New Zealand now sees higher rates in second half of 2022»

«Canada already signaled a shift»

«Fed also hints at exit talk»

«Central banks are beginning to tip toe away from their emergency monetary settings, with South Korea following in the footsteps of New Zealand and Canada to flag a potential interest-rate increase»

«As vaccines roll-outs continue and economies reopen, traders have been slowly dialing up expectations on rate hikes or a slowing of asset purchases elsewhere too»

«The Bank of Korea became the latest on Thursday to signal a turn when Governor Lee Ju-yeol said policy makers are preparing for an “orderly” exit from its record-low interest rate at some point as the economy recovers»

«The shift in stance came a day after New Zealand’s»

«We can’t rule out that the tail may wag the dog, influencing global market expectations of whether other central banks may also take a more hawkish turn»

«Financial markets have already brought forward pricing of the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike by almost a year since early February»

«Over the same period, market expectations from the Bank of England have switched from rate cuts by late 2022 to a rate increase»

«With major central banks embroiled in bond buying and other easing programs which traditionally get wound down first, most rate hikes remain some way off»

«The BOE has slowed bond-buying and signaled that it’s on course to end that support later this year»

«Norway is on track to start a hiking cycle, and Iceland has already begun»

«The Bank of Canada announced last month a reduction in debt purchases as it forecast a faster economic recovery that may pave the way for rate increases next year»

«The shift in monetary policy is starting»

«Hungary’s central bank said this week it was ready to deliver monetary tightening, and Russia, Turkey and Brazil have already hiked»

«The People’s Bank of China is holding the line with relatively disciplined stimulus»

«They will suffer from a double whammy as the Fed starts moving towards tapering»

* * * * * * *

Nuova Zelanda, Canada, South Korea, Regno Unito, Ungheria, Russia, Turkia, e Brasile hanno già iniziato il tapering oppure lo hanno annunciato come imminente. Ma il tapering si associa ad un aumento dei tassi di interesse.

Tuttavia, si faccia attenzione, il problema non è soltanto finanziario, di bilanciamento tra tassi di interesse ed inflazione.

Di interesse anche maggiore del pil è il numero dei nuovi posti di lavoro generati e la spesa per i consumi, che sono solo parzialmente influenzati dalle manovre finanziarie. Molto gioca la fiducia.

A parte il fatto che la Fed h sulle spalle 87 trilioni di debito totale degli Stati Uniti. Un grande fardello.

Nei fatti, prendiamo atto di questo trend che inizia a delinarsi.

*


Slowly But Surely, Central Banks Are Signaling Policy Shifts.

– New Zealand now sees higher rates in second half of 2022

– Canada already signaled a shift, Fed also hints at exit talk

*

Central banks are beginning to tip toe away from their emergency monetary settings, with South Korea following in the footsteps of New Zealand and Canada to flag a potential interest-rate increase.

As vaccines roll-outs continue and economies reopen, traders have been slowly dialing up expectations on rate hikes or a slowing of asset purchases elsewhere too. Markets are seizing on the tightening narrative, with bond yields and currencies fluctuating as investors recalibrate their bets.

The Bank of Korea became the latest on Thursday to signal a turn when Governor Lee Ju-yeol said policy makers are preparing for an “orderly” exit from its record-low interest rate at some point as the economy recovers. The shift in stance came a day after New Zealand’s.

New Zealand’s outlook was much more hawkish than expected and may yet signal a global shift, according to Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ Bank New Zealand in Auckland.

“We can’t rule out that the tail may wag the dog, influencing global market expectations of whether other central banks may also take a more hawkish turn,” she said.

Financial markets have already brought forward pricing of the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike by almost a year since early February. Over the same period, market expectations from the Bank of England have switched from rate cuts by late 2022 to a rate increase, while investors have almost abandoned bets on further European Central Bank reductions to instead price in a 10 basis-point upward move by the end of 2023.

                         Taper Talks

With major central banks embroiled in bond buying and other easing programs which traditionally get wound down first, most rate hikes remain some way off. But talk of a taper in asset purchases is catching on.

Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida told Yahoo! Finance in an interview Tuesday that there may be a point in upcoming policy meetings where officials can discuss scaling back purchases.

Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles said on Wednesday that it will be important for the central bank to begin discussing in coming months plans to reduce its massive bond purchases if the economy continues to power ahead.

The BOE has slowed bond-buying and signaled that it’s on course to end that support later this year. Australia’s central bank has set July as a deadline for deciding on whether to extend purchases.

Norway is on track to start a hiking cycle, and Iceland has already begun. The Bank of Canada announced last month a reduction in debt purchases as it forecast a faster economic recovery that may pave the way for rate increases next year.

                         Turning Point

“The shift in monetary policy is starting,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, Hong Kong based chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, who used to work for the ECB and International Monetary Fund.

Detailing its new outlook, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday published forecasts for its benchmark rate — for the first time in more than a year — that show the rate beginning to rise in mid-2022.

To be sure, this shift is still conditional.

RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said the bank’s outlook is predicated on the economy recovery continuing as vaccines roll out and the pandemic is contained. In a similar vein, BOK’s Lee said the board unanimously agreed to hold rates at a record low on Thursday as pandemic uncertainties persist.

The Fed’s Clarida also qualified his remarks around employment data and how inflation pressures play out, which he expects to be transitory.

It’s also the case that not every central bank is signaling a policy move, not least in the euro zone, where ECB Executive Board member Fabio Panetta said on Wednesday that he hasn’t seen a shift in the economic outlook to justify a reduction in bond purchases.

In emerging markets, the shift is splintering. Hungary’s central bank said this week it was ready to deliver monetary tightening, and Russia, Turkey and Brazil have already hiked. The People’s Bank of China is holding the line with relatively disciplined stimulus, while others continue to support growth as the virus continues to spread.

“There is growth divergence due to a much slower vaccination process in the emerging world and renewed waves,” said Garcia-Herrero. “They will suffer from a double whammy as the Fed starts moving towards tapering.”

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

G7. La Cina condanna le affermazioni del G7.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-11.

2021-05-07__ G7 001

Il Gruppo dei Sette, di solito abbreviato in G7, è un’organizzazione intergovernativa ed internazionale composta dai sette maggiori Stati ed economicamente avanzati dell’enclave liberal mondiale, ossia: Canada, Francia, Germania, Giappone, Italia, Regno Unito e Stati Uniti d’America.

Prendendo come riferimento l’anno 2019, ossia l’anno che ha preceduto quello della crisi innescata dall’epidemia di coronavirus:

Nel 2019 le nazioni afferenti al G7 avevano un pil di 36,828 miliardi Usd, ed un Pil PPP di 39,370 miliardi Usd.

I media liberal indicano i paesi del G7 come i più ricchi del mondo: ma questa è una menzogna.

Infatti, i paesi che costituiscono i Brics (ossia, Brasile, Cina, India, Russia, Sud Africa) avevano un Pil PPP di 41,017 miliardi Usd.

Nessuno si sogna di affermare che i paesi del G7 pesino economicamente poco: assommano una vasta parte del Pil PPP mondiale, che però risulta essere minore a quella evidenziata dai Brics. In altri termini, proprio non sono ‘il mondo’.

*

Si aggiunga un’altra considerazione.

I governi degli stati liberal occidentali reputano loro diritto e loro dovere l’ergersi a giudici della morale e dell’etica degli altri stati, che ovviamente non riconoscono loro codesto diritto.

Né può sfuggire la violenza con la quale negli Stati Uniti, in Germania ed in Francia la polizia tratti coloro che dimostrano in piazza avendo idee differenti da quelle governative. Se negli Stai Uniti la polizia apre spesso e volentieri il fuoco sui dimostranti, a nessuno è sfuggita la barbara repressione della dimostrazione del 1° maggio a Berlino, con 354 arresti di pacifici dimostranti etichettati come ‘negazionisti’. Un reato di libero pensiero.

Similmente, Dac ed Oecd sono governate dai paesi del G7, ma adesso contano per quanto valgono quegli stati che li governano, che in sede UN hanno da tempo perso la maggioranza.

* * * * * * *

«G7 foreign ministers said in a communique after a London summit that China was guilty of human rights abuses and of using its economic influence to bully others»

«China condemned on Thursday a joint statement by G7 foreign ministers that expressed support for Chinese-claimed Taiwan and cast Beijing as a bully, saying it was a gross interference in China’s internal affairs»

«Speaking in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said the statement made “groundless accusations” that were a gross interference in China’s internal affairs, which it firmly condemned»

* * * * * * *

Gli equilibri mondiali stanno mutando molto velocemente. In passato il G7 avrebbe ‘ordinato’, adesso si limita alla sola condanna.

Ma non ci si stupisca più di tanto se tra dieci anni il blocco asiatico condanni l’ideologia liberal e la bandisca dal mondo civile.

*


China condemns G7 statement censuring Beijing, supporting Taiwan

China condemned on Thursday a joint statement by G7 foreign ministers that expressed support for Chinese-claimed Taiwan and cast Beijing as a bully, saying it was a gross interference in China’s internal affairs.

G7 foreign ministers said in a communique after a London summit that China was guilty of human rights abuses and of using its economic influence to bully others.

In an unusual step, the G7 also said they supported Taiwan’s participation in World Health Organization forums and the World Health Assembly – and expressed concern about “any unilateral actions that could escalate tensions” in the Taiwan Strait.

Speaking in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said the statement made “groundless accusations” that were a gross interference in China’s internal affairs, which it firmly condemned.

The G7 as a group should take concrete action to boost the global economic recovery instead of disrupting it, he added.

China regards Taiwan as its own territory and opposes any official Taiwan representation on an international level. China has also stepped up military activities near Taiwan in recent months, trying to assert its sovereignty claims.

The G7 statement was warmly received in Taipei, where the government said this was the first time the foreign ministers had mentioned the island in their joint communique.

Taiwan’s Presidential Office thanked the G7 for its support.

Pubblicato in: Brasile, Devoluzione socialismo, India

Covid e fake news. Brasile, India ed Italia a confronto. Non facciamoci infinocchiare.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-10.

2021-05-09__ Covid Decessi Brasile 001

2021-05-09__ Covid Decessi India 001

2021-05-09__ Covid Decessi Italia 001

I media liberal occidentali hanno la grande caratteristica che conferisce la certezza quasi assoluta che quanto hanno riportato sia un colossale falso. Letti sotto questa ottica sarebbero financo utili a qualcosa.

Né dimentichiamoci l’Imprimatur che conferisce la soppressione su Facebook: segno palese quanto evidente che le informazioni censurate erano la perfetta verità.

Brasile ed India si stanno avviando alle elezioni politiche: i liberal odiano le loro attuali dirigenze, e stanno facendo carte false pur di denigrarli.

Secondo tali fonti di fake news, Brasile ed India sarebbero agli stremi, con una epidemia flagellante che starebbe per annientarli.

Ma togliamoci la curiosità ed esaminiamo da vicino i dati numerici.

Brasile.

Il Brasile ha 213,724,704 abitanti ed ha riscontrato 2,195 decessi da covid-19, ossia lo 0.001027% della popolazione.

India.

L’India ha 1,390,456,911 abitanti ed ha riscontrato 4,187 decessi da covid-19, ossia lo 0.000301% della popolazione.

Italia.

L’Italia ha 59,257,566 abitanti ed ha riscontrato 238 decessi da covid-19, ossia lo 0.000402% della popolazione.

Commento.

L’Italia ha percentualmente sulla popolazione più decessi dell’India, e circa la metà di quelli del Brasile.

U.S. Count Eases; India Reports Record Death Toll: Virus Update

Come dovevasi dimostrare, i media liberal occidentale propalano menzogne.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Materie Prime

Cina. Ferro. Importa circa il 70% del materiale estratto a livello mondiale.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-03-16.

Iron Ore Guinea 001

«Iron ore demand recovering outside China, but will it be enough?»

«The price of spot iron ore for delivery to north China has fallen in recent sessions as the market struggles to work»

«On the bearish side is some restrictions placed on steel production in the major Chinese producing city of Tangshan»

«Rising port inventories in China, which buys about 70% of global seaborne iron ore, are also leading to caution over prices, especially since supply from top exporters Australia and Brazil seems robust enough»

«And a further question is just how much steel will China require this year, with industry expectations centring on a small increase on last year’s record production of just over 1 billion tonnes»

«On the bullish side are signs that seaborne iron ore demand outside of China is rising, as economies in Europe and Asia start to recover from the economic hit from the pandemic»

«The spot price for benchmark 62% iron ore delivered to China, as assessed by commodity price reporting agency Argus, ended at $164.35 a tonne on Wednesday, up slightly from the previous day’s close of $164.25»

«However, the price has dropped 8.4% since reaching a 9-1/2 year high of $179.40 a tonne on March 4, with concerns over the outlook for Chinese demand being the main culprit cited»

«It’s worth noting that despite the fall, spot iron ore remains at historically high levels, having languished below $100 a tonne from May 2014 to May 2019, and also having rallied some 106% since the 2020 low of $79.60 in March of that year»

«However, it’s worth noting that the bulk of China’s domestic iron ore output is of considerably lower quality than even the low-grade producers in Australia, meaning it requires more coking coal in order to be turned into pig iron and then crude steel»

«When calculated on a daily basis, China’s imports do appear to be moderating in recent months.»

«La quota cinese delle importazioni globali di minerale di ferro a marzo dovrebbe scendere a circa il 67,4%, dal 71,2% di febbraio e dal 73,5% di gennaio»

* * * * * * *


Con il sistema economico in piena espansione, la Cina necessita di oltre un miliardo di tonnellate di ferro all’anno.

La sua produzione interna è del tutto insufficiente e, per di più, l’estratto è di bassa qualità. A questo consegue un maggiore costo di raffinazione.

Al momento attuale, Australia e Brasile sono i suoi maggiori fornitori di estratto, ma i prezzi sono saliti da 79.60 Usd del marzo 2000 agli attuali 164.35 Usd per tonnellata. Ma la principale causa di questo rialzo sembrerebbe essere proprio nell’aumentata richiesta cinese.

A quanto potrebbe sembrare, i cinesi dovranno a breve dover affrontare il problema i come garantirsi la sicurezza degli approvvigionamenti di minerali, dal ferro al carbone fino al greggio.

Si delinea una situazione che potrebbe anche sfociare in attriti severi.

*


Column: Iron ore demand recovering outside China, but will it be enough?

The price of spot iron ore for delivery to north China has fallen in recent sessions as the market struggles to work through a competing series of both bullish and bearish factors.

On the bearish side is some restrictions placed on steel production in the major Chinese producing city of Tangshan in order to combat air pollution, although these measures are likely to be only temporary in nature.

Rising port inventories in China, which buys about 70% of global seaborne iron ore, are also leading to caution over prices, especially since supply from top exporters Australia and Brazil seems robust enough.

And a further question is just how much steel will China require this year, with industry expectations centring on a small increase on last year’s record production of just over 1 billion tonnes, but others question whether Beijing will provide as much stimulus in 2021 as it did during last year’s coronavirus pandemic.

On the bullish side are signs that seaborne iron ore demand outside of China is rising, as economies in Europe and Asia start to recover from the economic hit from the pandemic.

The spot price for benchmark 62% iron ore delivered to China, as assessed by commodity price reporting agency Argus, ended at $164.35 a tonne on Wednesday, up slightly from the previous day’s close of $164.25.

However, the price has dropped 8.4% since reaching a 9-1/2 year high of $179.40 a tonne on March 4, with concerns over the outlook for Chinese demand being the main culprit cited.

It’s worth noting that despite the fall, spot iron ore remains at historically high levels, having languished below $100 a tonne from May 2014 to May 2019, and also having rallied some 106% since the 2020 low of $79.60 in March of that year.

While the Tangshan order to close some steel blast furnaces this month has spooked the iron ore market, it’s unlikely that this measure alone will be enough to make a serious dent in iron ore demand in China this year.

Rather, the Tangshan measures show that air pollution is still an issue in China, and perhaps the steel industry needs to be prepared for similar crackdowns in other producing regions.

A focus on air quality can mean different things to different parts of the iron ore sector.

SHIFT TO QUALITY?

In theory, steel mills will want to maximise production and minimise emissions, which means a shift to higher quality iron ore and increasing use of beneficiated products such as pellets.

This benefits producers of these products but tends to hurt miners of lower quality iron ore.

However, it’s worth noting that the bulk of China’s domestic iron ore output is of considerably lower quality than even the low-grade producers in Australia, meaning it requires more coking coal in order to be turned into pig iron and then crude steel.

A reduction in the use of domestic iron ore may help seaborne suppliers of all grades, but much will depend on whether China’s steel mills do actually switch to higher quality inputs.

Currently, it seems that China’s steel mills are well supplied, with inventories at ports rising, reaching 129.5 million tonnes in the week to March 5, up from the low this year of 124.25 million in the week to Jan. 8.

China’s iron ore imports look to be steady in March from February’s levels, with preliminary data from Refinitiv showing expected seaborne arrivals of 85.29 million tonnes this month, compared with 85.24 million in February and 99.19 million in January.

When calculated on a daily basis, China’s imports do appear to be moderating in recent months.

However, it’s worth noting that imports by the rest of the world are rising, with ex-China arrivals estimated at 41.25 million tonnes in March, up from 34.43 million in February and 35.76 million in January.

China’s of global iron ore imports in March is expected to drop to around 67.4%, from 71.2% in February and 73.5% in January.

The question for the market is whether a recovery in the world ex-China is enough to offset what may turn out to be tepid growth in China.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. 2020. Produzione Industriale -10.8% anno 2020 su anno 2019.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-02-24.

Destatis__001

Alla fine, finalmente si iniziano a pubblicare i macrodati economici riportati anno su anno precedente.

Destatis ci informa

«that production in industry excluding energy and construction was down by 10.8% in price and calendar adjusted terms in 2020 compared with 2019»

Solo per comparazione, Ungheria +5.8%, Slovacchia +6.8%, Brasile +8.2%, Cina +7.3%, Singapore +14.3%, Turkia +9.0%.

Il problema non è il coronavirus, bensì il governo.

*


Destatis. Industrial production down by more than 10% in 2020. Automotive industry and mechanical engineering especially affected.

Press release No. 076 of 22 February 2021

WIESBADEN – Production in the German industry declined by slightly more than one tenth in 2020 year on year. Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that production in industry excluding energy and construction was down by 10.8% in price and calendar adjusted terms in 2020 compared with 2019. In the course of the year, industrial production saw a significant year-on-year decline during the first phase of restrictions imposed due to the corona crisis in April and May 2020 (-29.7% and -23.4%, respectively). In December 2020, however, industrial production was only 1.5% lower than in the same month a year earlier. The turnover of mining and manufacturing enterprises in 2020 was down by 10.1% on a price and calendar adjusted basis compared with the previous year. While domestic turnover declined by 8.3%, non-domestic turnover decreased by 11.9%.

Pubblicato in: Brasile, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Brasile. Scoperta del secolo. Senza siringhe e aghi non si inocula il vaccino.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-01-04.

2021-01-03__ Siringa 013

Per vaccinare una persona serve sicuramente il vaccino, ma altrettanto sicuramente servono una siringa ed un ago monouso.

Per vaccinare un miliardo di persone servono quindi un miliardo di siringhe ed altrettanto di aghi.

L’industria ha difficoltà a produrre una simile massa di device e, soprattutto, i prezzi imposti sono troppo bassi.

Questo è un problema in quasi tutto l’occidente.

* * * * * * *

«Brazilian syringe and needle makers warned on Wednesday the country’s coronavirus vaccination program was at risk after the government set auction prices too low and failed to draw bids for enough syringes to meet its requirements»

« Health Ministry sought to buy 331 million syringes at an electronic auction on Tuesday but purchased just 8 million, or 2.5% of its target, after it set reference prices below companies’ bids»

«That means that Brazil …. runs the risk of not having enough syringes to distribute vaccines»

«Brazil has recorded the world’s third highest number of COVID-19 cases at more than 7.6 million and the second highest death toll at almost 195,000 people»

«The reference prices set by the government have no relation to the reality that syringe companies are living»

«The Health Ministry offered 13 centavos per syringe while companies were asking for between 22 and 48 centavos depending on the item»

«the entire country would need some 320 million syringes which would cost at most 120 million reais ($230 million)»

*

«”Une rémunération de la saisie dans ‘Vaccin Covid’ est mise en place avec un forfait payé a posteriori pour chaque saisie effectuée. Cette rémunération sera effectuée une fois par mois aux alentours du 15 du mois pour les saisies relatives au mois précédent.»

«L’ensemble des tarifs sont précisés en dessous, avec ce fameux “forfait de 5,40 euros pour chaque injection»

* * * * * * *

Il caso del Brasile è emblematico.

Tutti concentrati sul vaccino, hanno scotomizzato il problema di aghi e siringhe.

Poi, per complicare le cose, pubblicano un bando con prezzo di 13 centavos per siringa, poco meno della metà del costo commerciale. Bando andato praticamente deserto.

Poi ci sarebbe anche la remunerazione dello straordinario del personale sanitario, ma non si può voler troppo dalla vita.

*


Brazil fails to secure syringes for COVID-19 vaccine jabs

Brazilian syringe and needle makers warned on Wednesday the country’s coronavirus vaccination program was at risk after the government set auction prices too low and failed to draw bids for enough syringes to meet its requirements.

The Health Ministry sought to buy 331 million syringes at an electronic auction on Tuesday but purchased just 8 million, or 2.5% of its target, after it set reference prices below companies’ bids.

That means that Brazil, where President Jair Bolsonaro has downplayed the crisis and which already lags neighbors Chile and Argentina in rolling out a vaccine, runs the risk of not having enough syringes to distribute vaccines.

Brazil has not yet approved a vaccine and there is no clear date to begin a vaccination program.

Brazil has recorded the world’s third highest number of COVID-19 cases at more than 7.6 million and the second highest death toll at almost 195,000 people.

The Health Ministry set the number of syringes and needles to be provided and an estimated price for the auction.

“The reference prices set by the government have no relation to the reality that syringe companies are living,” Paulo Henrique Fraccaro, head of Brazil’s medical supplies and equipment industry lobby group ABIMO, said by telephone.

The Health Ministry offered 13 centavos per syringe while companies were asking for between 22 and 48 centavos depending on the item, Fraccaro said.

Given that Sao Paulo, the richest state, has already bought 50 million syringes and plans to buy another 50 million, the entire country would need some 320 million syringes which would cost at most 120 million reais ($230 million), Fraccaro said.

The prospect of running out of syringes could cause panic in the country or lead to more costly imports, he added.

*


Pourquoi les médecins toucheront 5,40 euros pour chaque saisie dans le fichier des vaccinés

La saisie d’informations dans le fichier prenant quelques minutes, la Caisse nationale de l’assurance maladie (CNAM) estime qu’il “est légitime de valoriser ce travail supplémentaire”, rapporte 20 Minutes.

Le fichier de traitement de données des personnes vaccinées “SI Vaccin Covid”, qui sera mis en place à partir du 4 janvier, doit permettre au gouvernement de mieux organiser la campagne de vaccination. Mais il suscite la méfiance de certains internautes. Une page Facebook a ainsi partagé un e-mail envoyé par l’Assurance maladie aux médecins, en soulignant, dans son commentaire : “La sécurité sociale annonce qu’elle versera une ‘prime’ de 5,40 euros par injection”

Dans le courrier, il est notamment écrit : “Une rémunération de la saisie dans ‘Vaccin Covid’ est mise en place avec un forfait payé a posteriori pour chaque saisie effectuée. Cette rémunération sera effectuée une fois par mois aux alentours du 15 du mois pour les saisies relatives au mois précédent.” L’ensemble des tarifs sont précisés en dessous, avec ce fameux “forfait de 5,40 euros pour chaque injection saisie dans le téléservice ‘Vaccin Covid'”. 

“Légitime de valoriser ce travail supplémentaire”

Contactée par 20 Minutes, la Caisse nationale de l’Assurance maladie (CNAM) a confirmé que ce courriel avait bien été envoyé aux médecins, pour les informer des modalités de rémunération. Les mêmes informations sont d’ailleurs accessibles publiquement sur le site Ameli de l’Assurance maladie.  

Cette rémunération de 5,40 euros pour toute saisie dans le fichier “Vaccin Covid” est justifié selon Philippe Vermesch, président du Syndicat des médecins libéraux (SML), que 20 Minutes a interrogé. Il souligne un processus plus dense pour le vaccin contre le Covid-19 que contre la grippe par exemple, avec notamment une consultation pré-vaccinale, une surveillance d’une demi-heure après le vaccin et la saisie des informations dans “Vaccin Covid”. Cette dernière étape “prend du temps, avec une moyenne de cinq minutes supplémentaires par patient”, explique-t-il.  

En effet, comme détaillé dans le décret du 25 décembre, le médecin est chargé de rentrer des informations sur le patient (nom, prénoms, sexe, date de naissance, lieu de naissance) et des informations relatives à la vaccination (dates des injections, “informations permettant l’identification du vaccin injecté”, “précisions sur l’administration du vaccin”, “identification du ou des lieux de vaccination”…).  

La CNAM fait le même constat : “Il est légitime de valoriser ce travail supplémentaire au service du bon suivi d’une campagne de vaccination sans précédent.”  

A noter que ce forfait n’impacte pas les patients, puisque les frais de consultation et d’injection sont pris en charge à 100 % par l’Assurance maladie.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Brasile, Devoluzione socialismo

Brasile. Il sistema economico sembrerebbe essere in netta ripresa.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-12-06.

2020-12-04__Brasile 001

Il sistema economico brasiliano sembrerebbe essersi ripreso dalla crisi indotta dall’epidemia da Coronavirus.

Il pil ha evidenziato un buon +7.7% 2020Q3/2020Q2 (trimestre su trimestre) ed un -3.9% anno su anno, avendo ammortizzato quasi completamente il -9.7% precedente.

Ma segni di ripresa sostanziale provengono anche dagli altri macrodati.

«Economic activity in Brazil rose in September for a fifth month»

«The central bank’s IBC-Br index, often seen as a good proxy for broader gross domestic product, rose a seasonally-adjusted 1.3% in September from August, above the median 1.0% forecast in a Reuters poll of economists»

«It brought the cumulative increase over the third quarter to 9.5%, but still leaves activity 2.5% below its pre-pandemic level in February»

«They now see Q3 GDP rising 7.3%, up from 6.7%, and revised their 2020 GDP forecast to -5.5% from -5.8%»

«Economy Minister Paulo Guedes insists that Brazil will suffer less and will recover more quickly than many other countries due to government and central bank support»

* * * * * * *

Concordiamo pienamente con quanto detto dal Ministro Paulo Guedes: il Brasile sta emergendo dalla crisi

«due to government and central bank support».

Purtroppo, sono ben pochi gli stati che abbiano simultaneamente un governo capace ed efficiente ed un governatore della banca centrale in grado di saper fare il suo mestiere.

*


Brazil economic activity rises in September, points to solid third quarter rebound.

Economic activity in Brazil rose in September for a fifth month, a central bank survey showed on Friday, more than economists had expected, pointing to a solid recovery in the third quarter from the worst of the COVID-19 shock earlier in the year.

The central bank’s IBC-Br index, often seen as a good proxy for broader gross domestic product, rose a seasonally-adjusted 1.3% in September from August, above the median 1.0% forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

It brought the cumulative increase over the third quarter to 9.5%, but still leaves activity 2.5% below its pre-pandemic level in February, the central bank figures show.

Economists at Citi immediately raised their third-quarter and full-year GDP growth forecasts on the back of the data. They now see Q3 GDP rising 7.3%, up from 6.7%, and revised their 2020 GDP forecast to -5.5% from -5.8%.

“Overall, the main activity indicators (industrial production, civil construction, retail sales, services survey, etc) performed better than our expectations, triggering an upward revision,” they wrote in a note on Friday.

It was the index’s fifth monthly increase in a row, but because August’s rise was revised up to 1.4% from 1.1%, September’s increase was the smallest of them all.

Compared to September last year activity was down 0.8%, and on an accumulated 12-month basis down 3.3%, both on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the central bank said.

By this measure, Latin America’s largest economy is still 8.3% smaller than it was at its peak in December 2013.

Brazil’s economy is expected to register its biggest-ever annual slump this year, with the government forecasting a 4.7% fall. Economy Minister Paulo Guedes insists that Brazil will suffer less and will recover more quickly than many other countries due to government and central bank support.

Guedes reiterated his bullish view of the economy this week, saying it is in a “V-shaped” recovery and could grow by as much as 4% next year.

Pubblicato in: Brasile, Cina, Materie Prime

Brasile. Adesso è il terzo fornitore della Cina di petrolio.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-11-03.

2020-10-26__Brasile - Cina. 013

«Brazil jumped to China’s third-biggest crude oil supplier in September, import data showed on Sunday, as China’s independent refiners scooped up cheap supplies of the South American exporter’s relatively high quality oil»

«Imports from Brazil hit 4.49 million tonnes, up from 2.96 million tonnes a year earlier, data from China’s General Administration of Customs showed. Brazil overtook Iraq, which fell to fifth-biggest supplier»

«China’s January-September imports from Brazil were 33.69 million tonnes, up 15.6% from a year earlier»

«China makes up 70% of Brazil’s oil exports»

«Saudi Arabia regained the top spot in China’s oil purchases last month after losing that rank to Russia for the previous two months …. Imports from the kingdom were 7.78 million tonnes, equivalent to 1.89 million barrels per day (bpd), up from August’s 1.24 million bpd …. Saudi Arabia trailed at 63.57 million tonnes, which was 6.5% higher on year»

«Russia supplied 7.48 million tonnes last month, or 1.82 million bpd, up 18.6% from a year earlier and up 32.8% from August»

«For the first nine months of 2020, Russia remained the top seller with supplies totalling 64.62 million tonnes, 16% above year-ago level»

«China snapped up 13% more crude in the first nine months than a year earlier»

* * * * * * *


Alcuni elementi emergono vistosi.

– Il Brasile riesce ad esportare in Cina il suo petrolio, con un incremento del 15.6% rispetto lo scorso anno.

– La Russia fornisce alla Cina petrolio con un incremento del 16% rispetto un anno fa.

– Nei primi nove mesi del 2020 la Cina ha aumentato l’importazione di greggio del 13% rispetto un anno or sono.

*

Da questi dati non sarebbe lecito affermare che la Cina sia in via di ripresa dalla crisi pandemica: la Cina sta vistosamente crescendo a dispetto del Covid-19 e della crisi che attanaglia il mondo occidentale ed occidentalizzato.

*


Brazil soars to China’s No. 3 crude oil supplier in September.

Brazil jumped to China’s third-biggest crude oil supplier in September, import data showed on Sunday, as China’s independent refiners scooped up cheap supplies of the South American exporter’s relatively high quality oil.

Imports from Brazil hit 4.49 million tonnes, up from 2.96 million tonnes a year earlier, data from China’s General Administration of Customs showed. Brazil overtook Iraq, which fell to fifth-biggest supplier.

China’s January-September imports from Brazil were 33.69 million tonnes, up 15.6% from a year earlier, according to Reuters calculations based on the data. China makes up 70% of Brazil’s oil exports, the country’s state oil firm Petrobras said in July.

Saudi Arabia regained the top spot in China’s oil purchases last month after losing that rank to Russia for the previous two months, data showed.

Imports from the kingdom were 7.78 million tonnes, equivalent to 1.89 million barrels per day (bpd), up from August’s 1.24 million bpd.

Russia supplied 7.48 million tonnes last month, or 1.82 million bpd, up 18.6% from a year earlier and up 32.8% from August, according to Reuters calculations.

For the first nine months of 2020, Russia remained the top seller with supplies totalling 64.62 million tonnes, 16% above year-ago level. Saudi Arabia trailed at 63.57 million tonnes, which was 6.5% higher on year.

U.S. shipments soared to 3.9 million tonnes in September, versus a year-earlier 517,982 tonnes.

China snapped up 13% more crude in the first nine months than a year earlier, as refiners ramped up production to meet speedy demand recovery from the pandemic and stock up at record rates on cheap oil.

Below are details of imports from key suppliers, with volumes in metric tonnes.