Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Blocco europeo. Dec21. Commercio al dettaglio -3.0% nella eurozona, -2.8% in EU.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-02-08.

2022-02-26__ Retail 001

«In December 2021, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade decreased by 3.0% in the euro area and by 2.8% in the EU, compared with November 2021»

2022-02-26__ Retail 002

* * * * * * *

Questo macrodato si commenta da solo. La gente è sempre più cauta nel metter mano al proprio portafoglio.

* * * * * * *


Eurostat. Volume of retail trade down by 3.0% in euro area and down by 2.8% in the EU

In December 2021, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade decreased by 3.0% in the euro area and by 2.8% in the EU, compared with November 2021, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In November 2021, the retail trade volume increased by 1.0% in the euro area and by 0.9% in the EU.

In December 2021 compared with December 2020, the calendar adjusted retail sales index increased by 2.0% in the euro area and by 2.6% in the EU.

The annual average level of retail trade for the year 2021, compared with 2020, increased by 5.0% in the euro area and by 5.5% in the EU.

                         Monthly comparison by retail sector and by Member State

In the euro area in December 2021, compared with November 2021, the volume of retail trade decreased by 5.2% for non-food products and by 0.3% for food, drinks and tobacco, while it increased by 0.1% for automotive fuels.

In the EU, the volume of retail trade decreased by 5.0% for non-food products and by 0.2% for food, drinks and tobacco, while it remained stable for automotive fuels.

Among Member States for which data are available, the largest monthly decreases in the total retail trade volume were registered in the Netherlands (-9.2%), Spain (-5.7%) and Germany (-5.5%). The highest increases were observed in Latvia (+7.2%), Slovenia (+2.1%), Bulgaria and Hungary (both +1.0%).

                         Annual comparison by retail sector and by Member State

In the euro area in December 2021, compared with December 2020, the volume of retail trade increased by 14.2% for automotive fuels, by 3.1% for non-food products while it fell by 1.1% for food, drinks and tobacco.

In the EU, the retail trade volume increased by 13.1% for automotive fuels, by 4.0% for non-food products while it fell by 0.9% for food, drinks and tobacco.

Among Member States for which data are available, the highest yearly increases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Slovenia (+44.1%), Lithuania (+16.2%) and Estonia (+12.6%). The largest decreases were observed in Ireland (-3.2%), Spain and Finland (both -3.0%).

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime, Russia, Unione Europea

Blocco Europeo. Gelo in arrivo. Russia riduce le forniture. Gas +600% YoY.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-24.

2021-12-22__ EU Gas 001

Le quotazioni del natural gas sono differenti se fornite per i mercati internazionali oppure per quelli europei.

Gran quota delle differenze di prezzo è dovuta al fatto che nel blocco europeo la fornitura di questa materia prima è sottoposta ad una tassazione destinata a finanziare i piani Grüne.

Alla attuale crescita dei prezzi europei si deve aggiungere una meteorologia inclemente, foriera di gelo, la riduzione del gas che i russi immettono dei gasdotti e, da ultimo ma non certo per ultimo, il fatto che gli stati europei stanno chiudendo le centrali atomiche, proprio adesso.

La ciliegina sulla torta è costituita dalla bassa resa dell’eolico in situazioni di gelo.

Come risultato finale il TTF Gas registra un incremento del 668.58% anno su anno.

* * * * * * *

«Europe is bracing for energy shortages as freezing weather sets in, boosting demand and sending prices surging with no relief in sight»

«Temperatures are forecast to fall below zero degrees Celsius in several European capitals this week, straining electricity grids already coping with low wind speeds and severe nuclear outages in France»

«To make matters worse, Russia is limiting natural gas flows through a major transit route to Germany Monday after capping supplies over the weekend»

«Energy prices have spiraled this year, with European gas surging some 600%»

«The region’s benchmark gas contract climbed as much as 8.8% Monday, while German year-ahead power, a benchmark in Europe, rose as much as 3.1% to a new record of 250 euros ($282) a megawatt-hour»

«The French contract jumped as much as 9% to a an all-time high»

«In France, day-ahead power rallied to 442.88 euros per megawatt-hour»

«The German contract also soared to the highest on record. Carbon permits jumped 6.2% to 77.84 euros a ton»

«Rising prices have fueled inflation, a headache for policy makers already contending with the spread of the omicron virus variant just before the holiday season»

«Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine could also make things worse, with a potential invasion likely to send prices even higher»

«Europe could experience rolling blackouts in case of a cold winter»

«That was before Electricite de France SA said it was halting reactors accounting for 10% of the nation’s nuclear capacity, leaving the region at the mercy of the weather at the height of winter in January and February»

«The futures pared some of the gains after Gazprom PJSC booked about 21% of the Yamal-Europe pipeline to Germany for January at a month-ahead capacity auction Monday»

«→→ With nuclear outages biting, electricity producers will have to use more gas to keep the lights on ←←»

«Russia plans for gas flows into Germany via the key Yamal-Europe pipeline to remain capped, potentially forcing Europe to rely on its already depleted inventories»

«Only 4% of capacity was allocated for Monday to send gas through Germany’s Mallnow station»

«Meanwhile, wind power is expected to stay low in Germany»

* * * * * * *


Blocco Europeo. Prezzi alla produzione, PPI, +21.9% anno su anno. Europa kaputt. – Eurostat.

Germania si oppone alla Francia. Il nucleare non sarebbe Grüne.

Germania. Oct21. Manifatturiero. Dipendenti -0.5%, ore lavorate -2.9% anno su anno.

Germania. Wholesales Prices +16.6% rispetto al novembre 2020. – Destatis.

Germania. Prezzi alimentari +16.3% su novembre 2020. Ecco la Fame. – Destatis.

Germania.2021Q3. Il 56.9% delle energia elettrica deriva bruciando carbone importato.

* * * * * * *

A tutto questo sconfortante quadro, se ne aggiunga un fattore forse ancor più micidiale.

All’atto di stabilire i prezzi di vendita, il venditore deve calcolare quanto gli costerà ricomprare ai nuovi prezzi il materiale venduto. Ma in un regime inflattivo al 21.9%, i costi di ricarico salgono in eguale misura, maggiorata di un margine di sicurezza previsionale.

In altri termini, il fornitore deve far pagare in anticipo la inflazione futura.

Questo è un espetto deleterio del processo inflattivo, che fa aumentare sia i prezzi alla produzione sia quelli al consumo, in una spirale senza fine.

* * * * * * *


European Energy Prices Soar as a Deep Freeze Arrives.

– Power prices surge from France to Germany after EDF’s outages

– Gas bookings show Russian flows may remain capped in January

* * *

Europe is bracing for energy shortages as freezing weather sets in, boosting demand and sending prices surging with no relief in sight.

Temperatures are forecast to fall below zero degrees Celsius in several European capitals this week, straining electricity grids already coping with low wind speeds and severe nuclear outages in France. To make matters worse, Russia is limiting natural gas flows through a major transit route to Germany Monday after capping supplies over the weekend. The route is set to be only partially used in January.

Energy prices have spiraled this year, with European gas surging some 600%. The region’s benchmark gas contract climbed as much as 8.8% Monday, while German year-ahead power, a benchmark in Europe, rose as much as 3.1% to a new record of 250 euros ($282) a megawatt-hour. The French contract jumped as much as 9% to a an all-time high.

Short-term electricity also jumped, along with the cost of using dirtier energy sources in Europe. In France, day-ahead power rallied to 442.88 euros per megawatt-hour, the highest since 2009, in an auction Monday. The German contract also soared to the highest on record. Carbon permits jumped 6.2% to 77.84 euros a ton.

Rising prices have fueled inflation, a headache for policy makers already contending with the spread of the omicron virus variant just before the holiday season. Geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine could also make things worse, with a potential invasion likely to send prices even higher. 

Jeremy Weir, chief executive officer of commodities trader Trafigura Group, last month warned that Europe could experience rolling blackouts in case of a cold winter. That was before Electricite de France SA said it was halting reactors accounting for 10% of the nation’s nuclear capacity, leaving the region at the mercy of the weather at the height of winter in January and February.

Benchmark Dutch gas prices jumped to almost 149 euros a megawatt-hour, the highest for a most-active contract since Oct. 6. The futures pared some of the gains after Gazprom PJSC booked about 21% of the Yamal-Europe pipeline to Germany for January at a month-ahead capacity auction Monday. Though limited, it’s a change from the less predictable daily auctions the exporter opted to use for December. 

The auction results “will not ease the risk of very tight supplies — given limited bookings for now,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. “But with a market clutching straws every little helps.”

With nuclear outages biting, electricity producers will have to use more gas to keep the lights on. Russia plans for gas flows into Germany via the key Yamal-Europe pipeline to remain capped, potentially forcing Europe to rely on its already depleted inventories. Storage sites are only 60% filled, a record-low for this time of year.

Only 4% of capacity was allocated for Monday to send gas through Germany’s Mallnow station, where the pipeline crossing Belarus and Poland terminates. That compares with about 35% of available space that Russia has booked for most days this month. 

There’s no relief to market tightness in sight as temperatures are expected to remain below normal levels in the U.K., Denmark and northern Germany next week. While traders expect liquefied natural gas may help to some extent, due to lower demand in Asia, cargo diversions will take time and increased arrivals at European ports are unlikely to come before January.

Meanwhile, wind power is expected to stay low in Germany until Dec. 23. In France and Britain, generation is forecast to dip on Tuesday, causing further supply issues.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Blocco Europeo. Prezzi alla produzione, PPI, +21.9% anno su anno. Europa kaputt. – Eurostat.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-20.

2021-12-20__ Eurostat PPI 001

L’indice dei prezzi alla produzione (Producer Price Index, PPI) è un indicatore inflazionistico che misura il cambiamento medio dei prezzi di vendita praticati dai produttori nazionali di beni e servizi, dai grossisti agli altri grossisti.

Il PPI misura il cambiamento del prezzo dal punto di vista del Venditore.

Usualmente, le variazioni del PPI si ripercuotono dopo qualche mese sui prezzi al consumo, che risultano essere incrementati di un fattore variante tra il due ed il tre, a seconda dei costi di distribuzione.

2021-12-20__ Eurostat PPI 002

* * * * * * *

                         In sintesi.

– In October 2021, compared with October 2020, industrial producer prices increased by 21.9% in the euro area and by 21.7% in the EU

– Industrial producer prices …. increased by 62.5% in the energy sector

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I problemi non risolti quando erano ancora piccoli e risolvibili, lasciati lì a marcire alla fine diventano venefici.

Nel blocco europeo un PPI al 21.9% è il certificato della morte del sistema economico.

Una inflazione di tale livello suggella la morte del sistema economico.

Infine, senza energia a costi accettabili i sistemi economici muoiono.

* * * * * * *


Eurostat. October 2021 comared with September. Industrial producer prices up by 5.4% in the euro area and by 5.0% in the EU. Up by 21.9% in the euro area and by 21.7% in the EU compared with October 2020.

In October 2021, industrial producer prices rose by 5.4% in the euro area and by 5.0% in the EU, compared with September 2021, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In September 2021, prices increased by 2.8% in the euro area and by 2.7% in the EU.

In October 2021, compared with October 2020, industrial producer prices increased by 21.9% in the euro area and by 21.7% in the EU.

* * * * * * *

                         Monthly comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State

Industrial producer prices in the euro area in October 2021, compared with September 2021, increased by 16.8% in the energy sector, by 1.4% for intermediate goods, by 0.5% for durable and for non-durable consumer goods and by 0.4% for capital goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 0.8%.

In the EU, industrial producer prices increased by 14.9% in the energy sector, by 1.4% for intermediate goods, by 0.6% for capital goods and for non-durable consumer goods and by 0.5% for durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 0.9%.

The highest monthly increases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Belgium (+11.2%), Italy (+9.4%) and Romania (+8.6%), while the only decreases were observed in Estonia (-2.1%), Luxembourg (-0.3%) and Sweden (-0.2%).

                         Annual comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State

Industrial producer prices in the euro area in October 2021, compared with October 2020, increased by 62.5% in the energy sector, by 16.8% for intermediate goods, by 4.2% for durable consumer goods, by 3.9% for capital goods and by 3.4% for non-durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 8.9%.

In the EU, industrial producer prices increased by 59.8% in the energy sector, by 17.1% for intermediate goods, by 4.6% for durable consumer goods, by 4.1% for capital goods and by 3.6% for non-durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 9.2%.

The industrial producer prices increased in all Member States, with the highest yearly increases being registered in Ireland (+89.9%), Denmark (+39.8%) and Belgium (+34.5%).

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Blocco Europeo. Oct21. PPI, industrial producer prices, +21.9% anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-12-03.

2021-12-03__ Eurozona PPI 001

                         In sintesi.

– In October 2021, compared with October 2020, industrial producer prices increased by 21.9% in the euro area and by 21.7% in the EU

– increased by 62.5% in the energy sector

– Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 8.9%

– highest yearly increases being registered in Ireland (+89.9%), Denmark (+39.8%) and Belgium (+34.5%)

* * * * * * *

2021-12-03__ Eurozona PPI 002

Nel novembre 2020 il PPI valeva -1.9%.

Il settore energetico ha evidenziato aumenti anno su anno del 62.5%, dato incompatibile questo con ogni produzione industriale.

* * * * * * *


Eurostat. October 2021 compared with September 2021. Industrial producer prices up by 5.4% in the euro area and by 5.0% in the EU. Up by 21.9% in the euro area and by 21.7% in the EU compared with October 2020.

* * * * * * *

In October 2021, industrial producer prices rose by 5.4% in the euro area and by 5.0% in the EU, compared with September 2021, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In September 2021, prices increased by 2.8% in the euro area and by 2.7% in the EU.

In October 2021, compared with October 2020, industrial producer prices increased by 21.9% in the euro area and by 21.7% in the EU.

                         Monthly comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State

Industrial producer prices in the euro area in October 2021, compared with September 2021, increased by 16.8% in the energy sector, by 1.4% for intermediate goods, by 0.5% for durable and for non-durable consumer goods and by 0.4% for capital goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 0.8%.

In the EU, industrial producer prices increased by 14.9% in the energy sector, by 1.4% for intermediate goods, by 0.6% for capital goods and for non-durable consumer goods and by 0.5% for durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 0.9%.

The highest monthly increases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Belgium (+11.2%), Italy (+9.4%) and Romania (+8.6%), while the only decreases were observed in Estonia (-2.1%), Luxembourg (-0.3%) and Sweden (-0.2%).

                         Annual comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State

Industrial producer prices in the euro area in October 2021, compared with October 2020, increased by 62.5% in the energy sector, by 16.8% for intermediate goods, by 4.2% for durable consumer goods, by 3.9% for capital goods and by 3.4% for non-durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 8.9%.

In the EU, industrial producer prices increased by 59.8% in the energy sector, by 17.1% for intermediate goods, by 4.6% for durable consumer goods, by 4.1% for capital goods and by 3.6% for non-durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 9.2%.

The industrial producer prices increased in all Member States, with the highest yearly increases being registered in Ireland (+89.9%), Denmark (+39.8%) and Belgium (+34.5%).

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Finanza e Sistema Bancario

Borse Europee. Le concause del crollo di venerdì. Quelle vere non si dicono.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-27.

2021-11-27__ Borse Europee 001

Tutti i media liberal riportano concordi la stessa velina che individua la causa del crollo borsistico nella presenza di quel grazioso esserino che ha preso domicilio nel continente.

* * * * * * *

Tuttavia codesta interpretazione sembrerebbe essere anche molto criticabile.

Il blocco europeo ha macrodati da incubo.

Germania. Oct21. Import Prices +21.7% anno su anno. Natural Gas +193.9%.

Spagna. Oct21. PPI, Indice dei prezzi di Produzione, +31.9% anno su anno.

Italia. PPI, Indice dei Prezzi di Produzione, +13.3% anno su anno.

Svezia. PPI, Indice dei Prezzi di Produzione, +16.8% anno su anno.

Regno Unito. PPI, Indice dei Prezzi di Produzione, +13.0% anno su anno.

Finlandia. PPI, Indice dei Prezzi di Produzione, +13.0% anno su anno.

Latvia. PPI, Indice dei Prezzi di Produzione, +22.4% anno su anno.

* * * * * * *

Weimar si sta avvicinando a gradi passi, sempre poi che non sia già qui. E la gente rattamente realizza e fugge via.

Natural Gas +193.9% anno su anno: chi mai non fuggirebbe?

 

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Blocco Europeo. Oct21. Immatricolazioni auto a picco. Default in vista – Acea.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-11-19.

2021-11-20__ Blocco Europeo Immatricolazioni 001

La Acea, Associazione europea dei costruttori di automobili, ha rilasciato il consueto report mensile sul numero delle immatricolazioni delle automobili nel blocco europeo.

Questo macrodato risulta essere particolarmente attendibile perché è una semplice conta, che non è trattata da algoritmo alcuno. Per questo motivo è un indicatore particolarmente robusto dello stato economico di una nazione.

Si tenga anche presente che il numero delle immatricolazioni corrisponde, grosso modo, al volume della produzione automobilistica.

* * * * * * *

Alcuni gli elementi da considerare.

In primo luogo, le immatricolazioni automobili sono crollate in tutti i grandi stati del blocco europeo. La crisi del settore è dunque un fenomeno continentale, di competenza dell’Unione Europea.

In secondo luogo, si osservi la profondità del crollo: dal -24.6% del Regno Unito fino al -35.7% dell’Italia.

In terzo luogo, tranne che per il Regno Unito, Francia, Germania ed Italia registrano peggioramenti di quasi dieci punti percentuali rispetto a quelli del mese precedente.

In quarto luogo, si consideri come questi cali delle immatricolazioni generino contrazioni della produzione, da cui ridimensionamento degli addetti e calo del gettito fiscale.

In quinto luogo, da ultimo ma non certo per ultimo, al di sotto di un certo volume di vendite la produzione automobilistica va in perdita, diventando quindi non sostenibile.

* * * * * * *

Mercedes-Benz fa fagotto e si trasferisce in Cina, che chiama ‘nuova Patria’

La situazione attuale è particolarmente severa.

Nella eurozona l’indice dei prezzi alla produzione è stimato essere aumentato del +16.0% anno su anno. E questo costituisce una ulteriore penalizzazione dell’industria automobilistica.

Per la sola Germania, inoltre, l’Indice dei prezzi all’Importazione è salito ad ottobre del +17.7%.

In conclusione, per il settore automobilistico si avvicina rapidamente il momento in cui dovrà uscire dal mercato.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Blocco Europeo. Settembre21. Immatricolazioni auto crollate di più di un quarto, anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-18.

2021-10-16__ Blocco Europeo Immatricolazioni Auto 001

La Associazione europea dei costruttori di automobili (ACEA) ha rilasciato le statistiche sulle immatricolazioni di automobili nel settembre 2021.

Per il terzo mese consecutivo le immatricolazioni precipitano del +34.4% nel Regno Unito, del -32.7% in Italia, del -25.7% in Germania, e del -20.5% in Francia.

In tutte le nazioni considerate, a settembre si evidenzia un decremento maggiore di quello riportato a luglio.

* * * * * * *

Questo dato non dovrebbe stupire.

Il PPI, Producer Price Index, vale 11.0% nel Regno Unito, il 12% in Germania, e l’11.6% in Italia.

Europa. La stagflazione è in casa per rimanervi. Se ne pigli atto.

Eurozona. Il cigno nero della stagflazione volteggia come un avvoltoio.

ECB. Weidmann e Wunsch votano contro la Lagarde sui tassi di interesse.

Mondo. Stagflazione. Il cigno nero ha fatto il nido. – Financial Times.

* * * * * * *

Questi sono i dati.

Poi, ciascuno se li interpreti come meglio gli aggradi.

Salta però agli occhi come i Cittadini di queste grandi nazioni intendano risparmiare procrastinando il cambio delle autovetture a tempi migliori.

Questi però non sono decrementi, bensì crolli belli e buoni.

Al risparmio operato dai Cittadini si contrappone la rimarchevole perdita subita dai produttori di autoveicoli, perdita che alla fine si riverbererà in una ulteriore riduzione del gettito fiscale ed il ridimensionamento dell’occupazione nel settore. Per non parlare del danno attuale sull’indotto.

E mentre questi fatti accadono sotto gli occhi di tutti, Lagarde e von der Leyen continuano a parlare di ‘clima’, ‘green deal’ ed ‘lgbt’.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Materie Prime

Blocco Europeo. Record wholesale prices hanno indotto la stagflazione. – Financial Times.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-17.

2021-10-07__ FT 001

Il wholesale price del natural gas nel Blocco Europeo sale giorno dopo giorno, gravato da una congerie di tasse e balzelli volti a finanziare le energie rinnovabili prossime venture.

Però, nell’attesa che il sol dell’avvenire splenda radioso nel 2050, cioè quando tutti noi saremo morti, il pressante problema attuale è come pagare ora una risorsa naturale che alimenta buona parte delle nostre centrali elettriche.

«Dutch and British wholesale gas prices surged to record highs in several contracts on Tuesday afternoon amid wider energy market price hikes, ongoing supply concerns, colder weather forecasts and a cut in French nuclear generation due to a strike.

The November gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, a European benchmark, traded at a record 120.80, euros/euros per megawatt climbing more than 26% from Monday’s close.» [Reuters]

* * * * * * *

«Gas crunch hits government bond markets as energy prices surge»

«UK gilt yields at highest since May 2019 with natural gas prices above equivalent of $200 a barrel of oil»

«European natural gas prices shot to unprecedented heights on Tuesday, dragging down bond markets, particularly in the UK, in a sign that investors are anticipating wider economic damage»

«European gas contracts for delivery in November jumped by 23 per cent to €117.50 a megawatt hour, up from just €18 six months ago on the prospect of supply shortages over the winter months. UK prices also soared, breaching £3 a therm for the first time, with prices tripling in just the past two months»

«→→ The latest price gains mean gas in the UK and Europe is now trading at more than $200 a barrel of oil equivalent or almost three times the price of crude, with inflationary effects threatening to ripple through economies reliant on gas for heating and power generation ←←»

«Government debt in the eurozone and the US also weakened, with 10-year US Treasury yields climbing close to last week’s three-month high, as investors become increasingly concerned about inflation»

«→→ The rise is so dramatic that it’s feeding these concerns about stagflation ←←»

«But investors have questioned whether central banks can curb inflation driven by tight supplies in energy markets»

«Russia, the largest supplier of natural gas to Europe, has also restricted pipeline exports to long-term contracts only, despite clear signs traders want more spot market sales to help fill storage facilities»

«→→ Russian president Vladimir Putin on Tuesday described the situation in Europe as one of “hysteria and confusion”, blaming tight supplies on under-investment in fossil fuels as economies try to pivot towards renewable energy ←←»

«Surging energy prices are also putting pressure on governments and policymakers in Europe»

«Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission, said on Tuesday that Brussels would explore setting up common strategic storage facilities for gas, warning about Europe’s heavy dependence on Russia for imports»

«Record wholesale prices have also led to the collapse of 10 retail energy providers in the UK since the start of August»

«The cost of supplying the average household in the UK with gas and electricity for a year has soared to more than £1,800, far above the £1,277 price cap»

* * * * * * *

La stagflazione è adesso di casa nel blocco europeo e ci rimarrà fino a tanto che l’attuale eurodirigenza non scompaia.

A quel punto, i sopravissuti potranno cercare di ricostruire qualcosa, sempre che il blocco europeo esista ancora.

* * * * * * *


Gas crunch hits government bond markets as energy prices surge

UK gilt yields at highest since May 2019 with natural gas prices above equivalent of $200 a barrel of oil.

European natural gas prices shot to unprecedented heights on Tuesday, dragging down bond markets, particularly in the UK, in a sign that investors are anticipating wider economic damage.

European gas contracts for delivery in November jumped by 23 per cent to €117.50 a megawatt hour, up from just €18 six months ago on the prospect of supply shortages over the winter months. UK prices also soared, breaching £3 a therm for the first time, with prices tripling in just the past two months.

The latest price gains mean gas in the UK and Europe is now trading at more than $200 a barrel of oil equivalent or almost three times the price of crude, with inflationary effects threatening to ripple through economies reliant on gas for heating and power generation. Traders are now pricing in a peak in the UK consumer price inflation rate at nearly 6 per cent in April next year.

Tuesday’s gas price surge added fuel to a recent drop in bond prices, particularly in the UK where concerns about rising prices have been felt most acutely. UK 10-year government bond yields surged to 1.09 per cent, the highest since May 2019.

Government debt in the eurozone and the US also weakened, with 10-year US Treasury yields climbing close to last week’s three-month high, as investors become increasingly concerned about inflation.

“Bond markets are trading off gas prices,” said Mike Riddell, a portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors. “The rise is so dramatic that it’s feeding these concerns about stagflation.”

Longer-term inflation expectations have also shifted higher, extending a gilt sell-off that began last month when the Bank of England indicated it could raise interest rates as soon as this year.

But investors have questioned whether central banks can curb inflation driven by tight supplies in energy markets, which have rippled out from Europe to the wider world. The largest economies in Asia are also increasingly feeling the hit of record prices, including in coal markets, with both China and India experiencing short supplies.

The tightness in energy markets stems, in part, from the rapid rebound in economic activity and energy demand from the depths of the pandemic. But gas demand has also risen in Asia, where governments are trying to reduce reliance on highly polluting coal. Europe’s domestic production has also fallen.

Russia, the largest supplier of natural gas to Europe, has also restricted pipeline exports to long-term contracts only, despite clear signs traders want more spot market sales to help fill storage facilities.

Russian president Vladimir Putin on Tuesday described the situation in Europe as one of “hysteria and confusion”, blaming tight supplies on under-investment in fossil fuels as economies try to pivot towards renewable energy.

Ukraine and other eastern European countries have accused the Kremlin of attempting to “weaponise” natural gas supplies to try secure quick approval to start up the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and as part of a backlash against the push towards renewable energy.

Nord Stream 2 will carry Russian natural gas to Germany through the Baltic Sea, bypassing Ukraine, and was targeted by US sanctions until a deal between Angela Merkel and President Joe Biden earlier this year.

Surging energy prices are also putting pressure on governments and policymakers in Europe. Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission, said on Tuesday that Brussels would explore setting up common strategic storage facilities for gas, warning about Europe’s heavy dependence on Russia for imports, while praising Norway for taking steps to increase gas production.

“We are very grateful Norway is stepping up but this does not seem to be the case for Russia,” von der Leyen said. Brussels is under pressure to act in the face of record natural gas prices that have forced governments in Spain, Italy, France and Greece to agree subsidies to protect households from higher costs.

Record wholesale prices have also led to the collapse of 10 retail energy providers in the UK since the start of August, requiring millions of customers to be transferred to other companies.

The cost of supplying the average household in the UK with gas and electricity for a year has soared to more than £1,800, far above the £1,277 price cap.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

La crisi energetica europea sta contagiando il mondo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-10-07.

Lazzareto 001

«Millions of people around the globe will feel the impact of soaring natural gas prices this winter»

«Nations are more reliant than ever on natural gas to heat homes and power industries amid efforts to quit coal and increase the use of cleaner energy sources»

«But there isn’t enough gas to fuel the post-pandemic recovery and refill depleted stocks before the cold months»

«Countries are trying to outbid one another for supplies as exporters such as Russia move to keep more natural gas home. The crunch will get a lot worse when temperatures drop»

«→→ Pipeline flows from Russia and Norway have been limited ←←»

«That’s worrying as calmer weather has reduced output from wind turbines»

«No wonder European gas prices surged by almost 500% in the past year and are trading near record»

«→→ The spike has forced some fertilizer producers in Europe to reduce output, with more expected to follow, threatening to increase costs for farmers and potentially adding to global food inflation ←←»

«In the U.K., high energy prices have forced several suppliers out of business»

«In China, industrial users including makers of ceramics, glass, and cement may respond by raising prices; households in Brazil will face expensive power bills»

«Economies that can’t afford the fuel—such as Pakistan or Bangladesh—could simply grind to a halt»

«The prospect of accelerating energy costs, in conjunction with squeezed supply chains and food prices at decade highs, could make more central bankers question whether the jump in inflation is as transitory as they’d hoped»

«If the winter is actually cold, my concern is we will not have enough gas for use for heating in parts of Europe»

«If Chinese factories have to contend with widespread power shortages, global prices for steel and aluminum will jump»

«But as more gas goes abroad, less will be available at home»

«→→ This winter, the world is likely to learn how much the global economy depends on natural gas ←←»

* * * * * * *

Blocco Europeo. Il +250% del natural gas manda in fumo le ambizioni green.

Blocco Europeo è strangolato dai rincari del 280% YoY del Gas Naturale. – Mr Putin ringrazia.

COP26, ‘Glasgow climate summit’ si preannuncia essere un fiasco memorabile

G20. Nessun paese ha adempiuto gli Accordi di Parigi del 2015.

Putin riduce giorno dopo giorno le forniture di gas naturale ad una Europa quasi senza scorte.

* * * * * * *

Questi sono i risultati di aver demonizzato per motivi ideologici il carbone e di aver cercato di imporre una transizione al gas naturale. Ma questi sono vezzi ben costosi, ed ora l’Europa paga alla Russia un gas naturale rincarato del 500% nell’ultimo anno. Tutto il comparto produttivo è ridotto alle corde, e questo inverno anche i privati cittadini ne saranno coinvolti.

Il buio, il gelo e la fame sono altamente maieutici.

Se poi li si sommassero alla stagflazione, il quadro generale sarebbe da catastrofe biblica.

* * * * * * *


Europe’s Energy Crisis Is Coming for the Rest of the World, Too

Millions of people around the globe will feel the impact of soaring natural gas prices this winter.

This winter, the world will be fighting over something that’s invisible, yet rarely so vital—and in alarmingly shorter supply.

Nations are more reliant than ever on natural gas to heat homes and power industries amid efforts to quit coal and increase the use of cleaner energy sources. But there isn’t enough gas to fuel the post-pandemic recovery and refill depleted stocks before the cold months. Countries are trying to outbid one another for supplies as exporters such as Russia move to keep more natural gas home. The crunch will get a lot worse when temperatures drop.

The crisis in Europe presages trouble for the rest of the planet as the continent’s energy shortage has governments warning of blackouts and factories being forced to shut.

Inventories at European storage facilities are at historically low levels for this time of year. Pipeline flows from Russia and Norway have been limited. That’s worrying as calmer weather has reduced output from wind turbines while Europe’s aging nuclear plants are being phased out or are more prone to outages—making gas even more necessary. No wonder European gas prices surged by almost 500% in the past year and are trading near record.

The spike has forced some fertilizer producers in Europe to reduce output, with more expected to follow, threatening to increase costs for farmers and potentially adding to global food inflation. In the U.K., high energy prices have forced several suppliers out of business.

Even a normally cold winter in the Northern Hemisphere is expected to drive up natural gas prices further across much of the world. In China, industrial users including makers of ceramics, glass, and cement may respond by raising prices; households in Brazil will face expensive power bills. Economies that can’t afford the fuel—such as Pakistan or Bangladesh—could simply grind to a halt.

Utilities and policymakers are praying for mild temperatures because it’s already too late to boost supplies. The prospect of accelerating energy costs, in conjunction with squeezed supply chains and food prices at decade highs, could make more central bankers question whether the jump in inflation is as transitory as they’d hoped. Traders will be carefully dissecting every weather forecast published from now to December.

“If the winter is actually cold, my concern is we will not have enough gas for use for heating in parts of Europe,” Amos Hochstein, the U.S. State Department’s senior adviser for energy security, told Bloomberg Television on Sept. 20. For some countries, “it won’t only be a recessionary value, it will affect the ability to actually provide gas for heating. It touches everybody’s lives.”

In Asia, importers of liquefied natural gas are paying record prices for this time of year to secure supplies, with some starting to snap up dirtier fuels such as coal and heating oil in case they don’t obtain enough. This may undermine efforts by governments to hit ambitious green goals: Gas emits about half as much carbon dioxide as coal when burned.

China, the world’s biggest buyer of natural gas, hasn’t filled stockpiles fast enough, even though imports are almost double what they were last year, according to customs data. Several Chinese provinces are already rationing electricity to industries to meet President Xi Jinping’s targets for energy efficiency and pollution reduction. A power crisis could exacerbate shutdowns if authorities divert gas to light and heat households.

If Chinese factories have to contend with widespread power shortages, global prices for steel and aluminum will jump. To make matters worse, the country is also grappling with a coal shortage.

Utilities in Japan and South Korea are largely protected by long-term LNG contracts that are indexed to oil. Still, Korea Electric Power Co. said on Sept. 23 that it will increase electricity prices for the first time in almost eight years. A sudden cold snap could force more power companies to dive into the spot market to buy emergency gas supplies at record-high rates. That’s what happened last winter.

The cost of securing LNG supplies has sparked a political controversy in strapped Pakistan, with opposition politicians demanding an inquiry into purchases by the state-owned importer.

In Brazil, the lowest flows to the Parana River Basin in almost a century have slashed hydropower output and forced utilities to rely more heavily on gas. The country boosted gas imports to an all-time high in July, and power bills are rising. With inflation already ballooning, that could hurt President Jair Bolsonaro’s chances in next year’s election.

The stage is set for an all-out scramble among Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and South America for shipments of LNG from exporters such as the Qatar, Trinidad and Tobago, and the U.S. “We have huge demand from all our customers and unfortunately, we can’t cater for everyone,” warned Saad Al-Kaabi, Qatar’s energy minister, at an industry conference this month.

American exporters are poised to ship more LNG than ever as new projects come online toward the end of the year. But as more gas goes abroad, less will be available at home. Even though gas prices have been notably lower in the U.S. than in Europe and Asia, they are trading near the highest level since 2014. Gas inventories are running below their five-year seasonal average, yet U.S. shale drillers are reluctant to boost production out of concern that would crimp their profitability and put off investors.

The Industrial Energy Consumers of America has requested that the Department of Energy reduce U.S. exports until storage levels get back to normal, a move that might exacerbate shortages abroad.

It used to be that the average person paid little attention to the market price of natural gas. It isn’t like oil, where a snap decision from OPEC will almost immediately affect how much they pay at the pump. This winter, the world is likely to learn how much the global economy depends on natural gas.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Blocco Europeo. Il +250% del natural gas manda in fumo le ambizioni green.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-29.

Andrà tutto bene 001

Nel Blocco Europeo, l’indice dei prezzi alla produzione, PPI, è salito al 12.1%, mentre il WPI, Wholesale Price Index, nella sola Germania si attesta al +12.3%.

Il Blocco Europeo è in stagflazione.

Blocco Europeo è strangolato dai rincari del 280% YoY del Gas Naturale. – Mr Putin ringrazia.

COP26, ‘Glasgow climate summit’ si preannuncia essere un fiasco memorabile

G20. Nessun paese ha adempiuto gli Accordi di Parigi del 2015.

Mondo. Materie Prime. I prezzi alla estrazione continuano a salire.

Ma su tutti i macro dati troneggia il Wholesale Price Index per il gas naturale.

«(Reuters) – Households across Europe face a jump in energy bills this winter due to a global surge in wholesale power and gas prices.

Benchmark European gas prices have surged around 250% this year due to low stock levels, high demand in Asia, high carbon prices and outages.

Governments across Europe are coming under pressure to curb energy bills to help families and small businesses as economies slowly emerge from the coronavirus pandemic.» [Reuters]

* * * * * * *

«Europe’s green ambitions could be hit as gas prices reach record highs»

«The recent spike is already having a tangible impact across the bloc»

«Some European leaders and lawmakers have blamed the EU for the energy price increases»

«The European Union could struggle to advance its green agenda as gas prices soar across the bloc, according to experts who warn against slowing down investment into the sector»

«However, these ambitions could be hit as a natural gas shortage on the continent drives prices higher»

«The front-month gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, a European benchmark, has risen more than 250% since the start of the year. It traded at about 74 euros ($87) a megawatt-hour on Tuesday — just shy of its record high of 79 euros it hit last week»

«The recent spike is already having a tangible impact»

«Soaring energy prices have hit economies across Europe»

«The risk to climate policymaking lies perhaps mostly in a loss of credibility ahead of the global COP26 climate talks in Glasgow later this year»

«“If wealthy countries in the EU are seen subsidizing energy for households that is in part supplied by fossil fuels, then the EU can hardly tell poorer countries to stop subsidizing household fuel consumption supplied by fossil fuels»

«Some European leaders and lawmakers have blamed the EU for the energy price increases»

«Poland said Monday that it will keep a coal mine running, even though the European Court of Justice ruled it should be shut down»

* * * * * * *

Riassumiamo in sintesi.

Con il natural gas rincarato del 250% nel volgere di un anno, si sono scatenate tutte le sequenziali conseguenze.

Questo combustibile alimenta infatti larga quota delle produzione di corrente elettrica.

Le ambizioni green si sono schiantate contro una situazione economica prossima al fallimento.

*


Europe’s green ambitions could be hit as gas prices reach record highs.

– The recent spike is already having a tangible impact across the bloc.

– Spain, for instance, has announced emergency measures to limit the profits that energy companies can make from gas alternatives.

– Some European leaders and lawmakers have blamed the EU for the energy price increases.

*

London — The European Union could struggle to advance its green agenda as gas prices soar across the bloc, according to experts who warn against slowing down investment into the sector.

The European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, has vowed to become carbon neutral by 2050, presenting a concrete plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% from 1990 levels by the end of this decade.

However, these ambitions could be hit as a natural gas shortage on the continent drives prices higher. The front-month gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, a European benchmark, has risen more than 250% since the start of the year. It traded at about 74 euros ($87) a megawatt-hour on Tuesday — just shy of its record high of 79 euros it hit last week.

The recent spike is already having a tangible impact. Spain, for instance, has announced emergency measures to limit the profits that energy companies can make from gas alternatives, including renewables. The government is also hoping to cap what consumers are paying for their electricity.

“Soaring energy prices have hit economies across Europe, and if Madrid’s actions are imitated elsewhere as governments prioritize cheap energy over the green transition, the EU’s credibility in advancing global climate action could take a hit,” Henning Gloystein, director of energy at the consultancy firm Eurasia Group, said in a note Friday.

Spain is not the only country to cap energy price increases, with France and Greece making similar moves. But the plan in Spain has been the subject of some criticism.

Iberdrola, a Spanish energy firm with a focus on renewables, said the move “would undermine investor confidence in the country” at a time when the nation needs private money to achieve its climate ambitions.

“The risk to climate policymaking lies perhaps mostly in a loss of credibility ahead of the global COP26 climate talks in Glasgow later this year,” Gloystein told CNBC via email.

“If wealthy countries in the EU are seen subsidizing energy for households that is in part supplied by fossil fuels, then the EU can hardly tell poorer countries to stop subsidizing household fuel consumption supplied by fossil fuels,” Gloystein added.

Meanwhile, Jacob Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States think tank, said he is not overly worried at this point, but that the ongoing energy crisis “makes it even more important that the Spanish government finds other sources of financing.”

“You can’t stop financing windmills for people’s bills,” he said, adding that countries should not ease their investments in greener energies.

                         The EU’s fault?

There is a wider problem, however: Some European leaders and lawmakers have blamed the EU for the energy price increases.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, for instance, said earlier this month that “Polish power prices are tied to the EU’s climate policies,” according to Politico.

When asked if comments like these could hurt the EU’s green ambitions, Kirkegaard said: “There’s absolutely that risk because clearly the Polish government want to extract more money from the EU for the green transition.”

Poland said Monday that it will keep a coal mine running, even though the European Court of Justice ruled it should be shut down. Under the same ruling, Krakow has to pay a 500,000 euro fine for every day that it keeps the mine open.

The EU’s climate chief, Frans Timmermans, has insisted that the price increases are not the bloc’s fault. “Only about a fifth of the price increase can be attributed to CO2 prices rising,” he told the European Parliament earlier this month. “The others are simply about shortages in the market.”

“Had we had the green deal five years earlier, we would not be in this position because then we would have less dependency on fossil fuels and natural gas,” he added.

‘Fair green transition’

Kirkegaard said that “it is too early to tell” if the price rises are going to jeopardize the EU’s green ambitions. The biggest risk, in his opinion, is whether public support for a greener economy falls because it is perceived to be impacting on their bills.

The European Commission announced earlier this summer that there would be special funds allocated to support the most vulnerable parts of the population in this green transition. The question is whether that will suffice.

“This must be a fair green transition. This is why we proposed a new Social Climate Fund to tackle the energy poverty that already 34 million Europeans suffer from,” Ursula von der Leyen, president of the commission said at a speech last week.