Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Unione Europea

Blocco Europeo. 2021Q2. Pil -2.5%, occupati -2.1 milioni, comparati con 2019Q4.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-09-11.

2021-09-08__ Eurostat Pil 001

Molto correttamente, Eurostat riporta le variazioni percentuali sul trimestre precedente.

Infatti, il 2020Q2 fu particolarmente depresso, per cui il rapporto 2021Q2/2020Q2 risulta essere abnormemente elevato, inaffidabile.

Sempre molto correttamente, Eurostat paragona questi macrodati con quelli del 2019Q4, ultimo trimestre prima della crisi pandemica.

«Based on seasonally adjusted figures, GDP volumes were 2.5% and 2.2% below their highest level of the fourth quarter 2019 for the euro area and EU. For the United States, GDP was 0.8% higher than the level of the fourth quarter 2019»

«employment in persons was 2.1 million in the euro area and 2.0 million in the EU below the level of the fourth quarter of 2019»

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Eurostat ha rilasciato il Report GDP up by 2.2% and employment up by 0.7% in the euro area. In the EU, GDP up by 2.1% and employment up by 0.7%

                         GDP growth in the euro area and the EU

In the second quarter of 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 2.2% in the euro area and by 2.1% in the EU compared with the previous quarter, according to an estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2021, GDP had declined by 0.3% in the euro area and 0.1% in the EU.  

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 14.3% in the euro area and by 13.8% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, after -1.2% in both zones in the previous quarter.

During the second quarter of 2021, GDP in the United States increased by 1.6% compared with the previous quarter (after +1.5% in the first quarter of 2021). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP increased by 12.2% (after +0.5% in the previous quarter).

                         GDP growth by Member State

Ireland (+6.3%) recorded the sharpest increase of GDP compared to the previous quarter, followed by Portugal (+4.9%), Latvia (+4.4%) and Estonia (+4.3%). Declines were observed in Malta (-0.5%) and Croatia (-0.2%).

                         GDP components and contributions to growth

During the second quarter of 2021, household final consumption expenditure increased by 3.7% in the euro area and by 3.5% in the EU (after -2.1% in the euro area and -1.7% in the EU in the previous quarter). Government final consumption expenditure increased by 1.2% in both zones (after -0.5% both in the previous quarter). Gross fixed capital formation increased by 1.1% in the euro area and by 1.0% in the EU (after -0.2% and +0.3% respectively). Exports increased by 2.2% in the euro area and by 1.8% the EU (after +0.7% in both areas). Imports increased by 2.3% in the euro area and by 2.2% in the EU (after +0.4% and +0.6%).

Household final consumption expenditure had strong positive contributions to GDP growth in both the euro area and the EU (+1.9 and +1.7 percentage points – pp, respectively). The contributions from government final expenditure (+0.3 pp in both zones) and gross fixed capital formation (+0.2 pp in both zones) were also positive. The contribution from the external balance was close to neutral for both zones, while the contribution from changes in inventories was slightly negative for the euro area and neutral for the EU.

                         GDP levels in the euro area and EU

Based on seasonally adjusted figures, GDP volumes were 2.5% and 2.2% below their highest level of the fourth quarter 2019 for the euro area and EU. For the United States, GDP was 0.8% higher than the level of the fourth quarter 2019.

                         Employment growth in the euro area and EU

The number of employed persons increased by 0.7% in both the euro area and in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, compared with the previous quarter. In the first quarter of 2021, employment had decreased by 0.2% in both the euro area and the EU.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment increased by 1.8% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, after -1.8% and -1.6% respectively in the first quarter of 2021.

Hours worked increased by 2.7% in the euro area and by 2.4% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, compared with the previous quarter. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year the increases were 17.0% in the euro area and 14.7% in the EU (see annex table on employment in hours worked).

These data provide a picture of labour input consistent with the output and income measure of national accounts.

                         Employment growth in Member States

In the second quarter of 2021, Latvia (+5.7%), Greece (+2.8%), Denmark and Portugal (both +1.9%) recorded the highest growth of employment in persons compared with the previous quarter. Decreases were observed in Estonia (-1.1%) and Spain (-0.9%).

                         Employment levels in the euro area and EU

Based on seasonally adjusted figures, Eurostat estimates that in the second quarter of 2021, 207.5 million people were employed in the EU, of which 159.0 million were in the euro area.

In relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, employment in persons was 2.1 million in the euro area and 2.0 million in the EU below the level of the fourth quarter of 2019.

                         Evolution of labour productivity in the euro area and EU

The combination of GDP and employment data allows an estimation of labour productivity. The analysis of growth compared to the same quarter of the previous year shows that productivity growth (based on employed persons) fluctuated around 1% for both zones between 2013 and 2018.

In relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, productivity based on persons increased compared to the same quarter of the previous year with 12.2% for the euro area and 11.6% for the EU.

Based on hours worked, productivity compared to the same quarter of the previous year decreased by 1.5% for the euro area and increased by 0.3% for the EU.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Unione Europea

Blocco Europeo. 2021Q2. Pil +2.0% su 2021Q1. In questo caso il rapporto 2021Q2 su 2020Q2 sarebbe fallace.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-08-18.

2021-08-18__ Eurostat 001

Attenzione!

Correttamente Eurostat titola riportando i rapporti 2021Q2 / 2021Q1.

Infatti il 2020Q2 è stato il peggior semestre con un secco -15%. Di conseguenza, il rapporto 2021Q2 / 2020Q2 è risultato essere abnormemente elevato.

Eurostat non ha pubblicato il riscontro contro l’ultimo semestre prima della crisi economica.

2021-08-18__ Eurostat 002

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Eurostat ha rilasciato il Report GDP up by 2.0% and employment up by 0.5% in the euro area.

GDP up by 2.0% and employment up by 0.5% in the euro area In the EU, GDP up by 1.9% and employment up by 0.6%

                         GDP growth in the euro area and EU.

In the second quarter of 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 2.0% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU, compared with the previous quarter, according to a flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2021, GDP had declined by 0.3% in the euro area and 0.1% in the EU.

During the second quarter of 2021, GDP in the United States increased by 1.6% compared with the previous quarter (after +1.5% in the first quarter of 2021). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP increased by 12.2% (after +0.5% in the previous quarter).

                   Employment growth in the euro area and EU

The number of employed persons increased by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.6% in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, compared with the previous quarter. In the first quarter of 2021, employment had decreased by 0.2% in both the euro area and the EU.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment increased by 1.8% in both the euro area and in the EU in the second quarter of 2021, after -1.8% and -1.6% respectively in the first quarter of 2021.

These data provide a picture of labour input consistent with the output and income measure of national accounts.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Europa. 2021Q1. Pil eurozona -5.1%, EU -4.6, comparati sul 2019Q4. – Eurostat.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-09.

2021-06-09__ eUROSTAT gDP 001

Ricordandosi bene di quando Stalin spedì in Siberia tutto il personale dell’Ufficio di Statistica, anche quello di Eurostat riporta pudicamente nei titoli i dati QoQ.

Poi, in fondo, riporta le tabelle dei dati comparati sul primo trimestre 2020 e sul quarto trimestre 2019, ultimo rilevamento prima della crisi del Covid.

La differenza è stridente, ma ben più aderente ala realtà dei fatti.

2021-06-09__ eUROSTAT gDP 002

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In sintesi.

– GDP volumes were 5.1% and 4.6% below their highest level of the fourth quarter 2019 for the euro area and EU

– household final consumption expenditure decreased by 2.3% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU

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Eurostat ha rilasciato il Report 2021 GDP down by 0.3% and employment down by 0.3% in the euro area.

                         GDP growth in the euro area and the EU.

In the first quarter of 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.1% in the EU compared with the previous quarter, according to an estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. These declines follow falls in the fourth quarter of 2020 (-0.6% in the euro area and -0.4% in the EU) after a strong rebound in the third quarter of 2020 (+12.6% in the euro area and +11.7% in the EU). Before, the sharpest decreases since the time series started in 1995 were observed in the second quarter of 2020 (-11.5% in the euro area and -11.1% in the EU).

During the first quarter of 2021, GDP in the United States increased by 1.6% compared with the previous quarter (after +1.1% in the fourth quarter of 2020). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP increased by 0.4% (after -2.4% in the previous quarter).

                         GDP growth by Member State.

Ireland (+7.8%) and Croatia (+5.8%) recorded the sharpest increases of GDP compared to the previous quarter, followed by Estonia (+4.8%) and Greece (+4.4%). The strongest declines were observed in Portugal (-3.3%) and Slovakia (-2.0%), followed by Germany (-1.8%) and Latvia (-1.7%).

                         GDP components and contributions to growth.

During the first quarter of 2021, household final consumption expenditure decreased by 2.3% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU (after -2.9% in the euro area and -2.7% in the EU in the previous quarter). Gross fixed capital formation increased by 0.2% in the euro area and by 0.8% in the EU (after +2.5% and +2.0% respectively). Exports increased by 1.0% in the euro area and by 1.1% the EU (after +3.8% and +4.0%). Imports increased by 0.9% in the euro area and by 1.1% in the EU (after +4.5% and +4.4%).

Household final consumption expenditure had negative contribution to GDP growth in both the euro area and the EU (-1.2 and -1.0 percentage points – pp, respectively) while the contributions from gross fixed capital formation (+0.1 in the euro area and +0.2 in the EU) and changes in inventories (+0.7% in the euro area and +0.6 in the EU) were positive. The contribution from the external balance was slightly positive for the euro area and neutral for the EU, while the contributions from government final expenditure were neutral in both zones.

                         GDP levels in the euro area and EU.

Based on seasonally adjusted figures, GDP volumes were 5.1% and 4.6% below their highest level of the fourth quarter 2019 for the euro area and EU, which corresponds to the level of the fourth quarter 2016 for the euro area and is slightly above the level of the first quarter 2017 for the EU. For the United States, GDP was 0.9% below the level of the fourth quarter 2019 but recovered to its previous level of the second quarter 2019.

                         Employment growth in the euro area and EU.

The number of employed persons decreased by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU in the first quarter of 2021, compared with the previous quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2020, employment had increased by 0.4% in both the euro area and the EU.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment decreased by 1.8% in the euro area and by 1.6% in the EU in the first quarter of 2021, after -1.8% and -1.5% respectively in the fourth quarter of 2020.

                         Employment growth in Member States.

In the first quarter of 2021, Hungary (+1.1%), Spain (+1.0%), Cyprus and Lithuania (both +0.8%) recorded the highest growth of employment in persons compared with the previous quarter. The largest decreases were observed in Latvia (-3.9%), Greece (-1.7%) and Slovakia (-1.1%). At this stage, data for Ireland and Romania are not included in the graph, due to a delayed publication in Ireland and series break observed in the first quarter 2021 in Romania.

                         Employment levels in the euro area and EU.

Based on seasonally adjusted figures, Eurostat estimates that in the first quarter of 2021, 205.6 million people were employed in the EU, of which 157.6 million were in the euro area.

In relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, employment in persons was 3.4 million in the euro area and 3.8 million in the EU below the level of the fourth quarter of 2019.

                         Evolution of labour productivity in the euro area and EU.

The combination of GDP and employment data allows an estimation of labour productivity. The analysis of growth compared to the same quarter of the previous year shows that productivity growth (based on employed persons) fluctuated around 1% for both zones between 2013 and 2018.

In relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, productivity based on persons increased compared to the same quarter of the previous year with 0.6% for the euro area and 0.4% for the EU.

Based on hours worked, productivity compared to the same quarter of the previous year increased by 2.0% for the euro area and to 1.1% for the EU.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Eurozona. 2021 Maggio. Inflazione annuale +2.0%. – Eurostat. Dati conflittuali.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-02.

2021-06-02__ Eurostat nflazine 001

Eurostat. May 2021. Euro area annual inflation up to 2.0%.

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 2.0% in May 2021, up from 1.6% in April according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in May (13.1%, compared with 10.4% in April), followed by services (1.1%, compared with 0.9% in April), non-energy industrial goods (0.7%, compared with 0.4% in April) and food, alcohol & tobacco (0.6%, stable compared with April).

2021-06-02__ Eurostat nflazine 002

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                         Methods and definitions.

Annual inflation is the change of the price level of consumer goods and services between the current month and the same month of the previous year. Monthly inflation is the change of the price level between the current month and the previous month.

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Si piglia atto come questi siano i dati ufficiali al 1° giugno 2021.

Resta tuttavia difficilmente spiegabile come possano essere coerenti a quelli riportati nel precedente Report, che datava solo il 19 maggio.

Eurostat. April 2021. Annual inflation up to 1.6% in the euro area.

The euro area annual inflation rate was 1.6% in April 2021, up from 1.3% in March. A year earlier, the rate was 0.3%.

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Il 5 maggio sempre Eurostat aveva pubblicato i macrodati relativi al Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, il quale valeva +4.3%.

Resta invero molto difficile capire come ad un simile aumento dei costi di produzione corrisponda una inflazione del solo +2.0%. Per non parlare poi dei costi dell’energia, saliti del 13.1%.

Pubblicato in: Commercio

Italia. Marzo21. Export +28.1%, Import +35.1%, su base annua. – Istat.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-19.

2021-05-19__ Istat Import Export 001

Istat ha rilasciato il Report Commercio con l’Estero e prezzi all’Import.

*

Nota.

Le percentuali anno su anno sono inusitatamente elevate a seguito del forte calo dei commerci avvenuto lo scorso anno.

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Marzo 2021. Commercio con l’Estero e prezzi all’Import.

– A marzo 2021 si stima una crescita congiunturale per i flussi commerciali con l’estero, più intensa per le importazioni (+6,0%) che per le esportazioni (+3,2%). L’incremento su base mensile dell’export è dovuto all’aumento delle vendite sia verso l’area Ue (+3,7%) sia verso i mercati extra Ue (+2,6%).

– Nel primo trimestre del 2021, rispetto al precedente, l’export aumenta del 2,6%, l’import del 5,0%.

– A marzo 2021, l’export sale su base annua del 28,1%; la crescita è più sostenuta verso l’area Ue (+32,6%) rispetto all’area extra Ue (+23,2%). L’import registra un aumento tendenziale più marcato (+35,1%), con incrementi di analoga entità verso entrambi i principali mercati di sbocco, Ue ed extra Ue.

– Tra i settori che contribuiscono maggiormente all’aumento tendenziale dell’export si segnalano macchinari e apparecchi n.c.a (che crescono del +32,3%), metalli di base e prodotti in metallo, esclusi macchine e impianti (+35,4%), autoveicoli (+80,1%), mezzi di trasporto, autoveicoli esclusi (+43,6%) e articoli di abbigliamento, anche in pelle e in pelliccia (+57,4%). Solo le vendite di articoli farmaceutici, chimico-medicinali e botanici (-9,3%) sono in calo.

– Su base annua, le esportazioni crescono verso tutti i principali paesi partner; i contributi maggiori riguardano le vendite verso Germania (con un aumento del 30,6%), Francia (+39,0%), Spagna (+37,4%), Svizzera (+35,7%) e Paesi Bassi (+51,6%).

– Nel primo trimestre del 2021, la crescita tendenziale dell’export (+4,6%) è dovuta in particolare all’incremento delle vendite di metalli di base e prodotti in metallo, esclusi macchine e impianti (+13,7%), macchinari e apparecchi n.c.a. (+8,5%), autoveicoli (+22,3%) e apparecchi elettrici (+14,9%).

-La stima del saldo commerciale a marzo 2021 è pari a +5.190 milioni di euro (era +5.701 a marzo 2020). Al netto dei prodotti energetici il saldo è pari a +7.984 milioni (era +7.707 a marzo dello scorso anno).

-Nel mese di marzo 2021 i prezzi all’importazione aumentano dell’1,9% su base mensile e del 4,2% su base annua.

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Il commento.

A marzo prosegue la dinamica congiunturale positiva dell’export, sostenuta dal commercio estero con i paesi sia Ue sia extra Ue. Nel primo trimestre dell’anno, rispetto all’ultimo del 2020, l’aumento dell’export è trainato essenzialmente dalle vendite verso l’area Ue. Nel confronto con marzo 2020 – quando anche il commercio con l’estero iniziò a subire gli effetti dell’emergenza sanitaria – la crescita dell’export è molto marcata e diffusa a livello settoriale e verso tutti i principali paesi partner. Le vendite di macchinari e metalli forniscono il contributo più ampio (oltre 9 punti percentuali) al forte incremento tendenziale delle esportazioni. Anche la crescita su base annua dell’import, più marcata di quella dell’export, interessa in modo generalizzato tutti i settori. Per i prezzi all’import, il rialzo congiunturale è dovuto soprattutto alle dinamiche positive di energia e beni intermedi; su base annua, i prezzi tornano a crescere dopo quasi due anni di variazioni tendenziali negative.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Europa. Marzo21. Vendite al Dettaglio +2.7% MoM, +12.0% comparate su Marzo 2020.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-08.

2021-05-07__ Eurostat Vendite Dettaglio 001

In sintesi.

2021-05-07__ Eurostat Vendite Dettaglio 002

– In March 2021 the …. volume of retail trade rose by 2.7% in the euro area and by 2.6% in the EU, compared with February 2021

– In March 2021 compared with March 2020, the calendar adjusted volume of retail trade increased by 12.0% in the euro area and by 11.6% in the EU

2021-05-07__ Eurostat Vendite Dettaglio 003

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Eurostat. March 2021 compared with February 2021. Volume of retail trade up by 2.7% in euro area and by 2.6% in the EU. Up by 12.0% and 11.6% compared with March 2020.

In March 2021, the seasonally adjusted volume of retail trade rose by 2.7% in the euro area and by 2.6% in the EU, compared with February 2021, according to estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In February 2021, the retail trade volume increased by 4.2% in the euro area and by 3.8% in the EU.

In March 2021 compared with March 2020, the calendar adjusted volume of retail trade increased by 12.0% in the euro area and by 11.6% in the EU.

                         Monthly comparison by retail sector and by Member State.

In the euro area in March 2021, compared with February 2021, the volume of retail trade increased by 4.6% for non-food products and by 1.0% for food, drinks and tobacco, while it decreased by 2.9% for automotive fuels.

In the EU the volume of retail trade increased by 4.2% for non-food products and by 0.8% for food, drinks and tobacco, while it decreased by 2.3% for automotive fuels.

Among Member States for which data are available, the highest monthly increases in total retail trade were registered in Denmark (+22.5%), the Netherlands (+8.4%), Germany and Lithuania (both +7.7%). The largest decreases were observed in Croatia (-4.0%), Poland (-2.2%) and Austria (-1.9%).

                         Annual comparison by retail sector and by Member State.

In the euro area in March 2021, compared with March 2020, the volume of retail trade increased by 25.0% for non-food products (within this category mail orders and internet increased by 37.2%), and by 17.1% for automotive fuels, while it decreased by 1.1% for food, drinks and tobacco.

In the EU, the volume of retail trade increased by 23.6% for non-food products (mail orders and internet increased by 37.4%) and by 14.1% for automotive fuels, while it decreased by 1.2% for food, drinks and tobacco.

Among Member States for which data are available, the highest annual increases in total retail trade volume were registered in Slovenia (+24.0%), Denmark (+22.6%) and France (+21.3%). Decreases were observed in Hungary (-2.1%), Portugal (-1.1%) and Malta (-0.1%).

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Unione Europea. 2021Q1. Pil eurozona -1.8%, Pil Unione -1.7%, anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-04.

2021-05-03__ Eurostat pil 001

Eurostat ha rilasciato il Report GDP down by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU.

*

Eurostat. GDP down by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU. -1.8% and -1.7% respectively compared with the first quarter of 2020.

In the first quarter 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU, compared with the previous quarter, according to a preliminary flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. These declines follow falls in the fourth quarter of 2020 (-0.7% in the euro area and -0.5% in the EU) after a strong rebound in the third quarter of 2020 (+12.5% in the euro area and +11.7% in the EU) and the sharpest decreases since the time series started in 1995 observed in the second quarter of 2020 (-11.6% in the euro area and -11.2% in the EU).

These preliminary GDP flash estimates are based on data sources that are incomplete and subject to further revisions.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 1.8% in the euro area and by 1.7% in the EU in the first quarter of 2021, after -4.9% in the euro area and -4.6% in the EU in the previous quarter.

Among the Member States for which data are available for the first quarter 2021, Portugal (-3.3%) recorded the highest decrease compared to the previous quarter, followed by Latvia (-2.6%) and Germany (-1.7%), while Lithuania (+1.8%) and Sweden (+1.1%) recorded the highest increases. The year on year growth rates were negative for all countries except for France (+1.5%) and Lithuania (+1.0%).

The next estimates for the first quarter of 2021 will be released on 18 May 2021.

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Per quanto imbellettati come una brutta ottantenne che vorrebbe esibirsi in microtanga, questi dati rappresentano una débâcle per l’Europa guidata da von der Leyen, Lagarde e Merkel.

L’enclave occidentale liberal si è fratturato in due tronconi:

Usa. 2021Q1. Pil +6.4%, Consumi Personali +10.7%, annualizzato. – BEA.

ma una nave spaccata in due tronconi alla fine affonda. Gli Stati Uniti sono in ripresa, mentre l’Unione Europea è in piena recessione. Gli Stati Uniti si avviano al termine del QE, il tapering, e verso un rialzo dei tassi di interesse. L’Europa è l’ultimo cascame del mondo a necessitare di tassi negativi e di un sostanzioso QE, Il conflitto è evidente.

Le esigenze di queste due sottozone geoeconomiche sono conflittuali ed antitetiche, non più collaborative.

Per non parlare poi del resto del mondo.

Cina. Marzo21. Profitti Industriali +92.3% YoY, +137.3% ultimi 12 mesi.

Cina. 2021Q1. Settori in crescita tumultuosa. Un monito per l’occidente.

Eurostat. 2020Q4. I debiti degli stati sono al 98% del pil del blocco europeo.

Giappone. Marzo21. Export +16.1%, Import +5.7%, anno su anno. La Cina supera gli Usa.

USA. Il Tesoro emetterà 271 miliardi di nuovo debito ora, 4,000 a breve. Rendimenti aumentati.

Indonesia. Marzo21. Export +30.47%, Import +25.73%, anno su anno. – Statistics Indonesia.

Cina. 2021Q1. Pil +18.3% anno su anno.

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La devoluzione del socialismo liberal europeo prosegue ineluttabile, come la campagna di Russia di Napoleone.Ma la Beresina è oramai vicina.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Eurostat. 2020Q4. I debiti degli stati sono al 98% del pil del blocco europeo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-04-28.

2021-04-25__ Eurostat Q4 001

Eurostat. Government debt up to 98.0% of GDP in euro area.

2021-04-25__ Eurostat Q4 002

Fourth quarter of 2020. Government debt up to 98.0% of GDP in euro area. Up to 90.7% of GDP in EU.

At the end of the fourth quarter of 2020, still impacted by policy responses to the COVID-19 containment measures, which materialised in increased financing needs, the government debt to GDP ratio in the euro area stood at 98.0%, compared with 97.2% at the end of the third quarter of 2020. In the EU, the ratio increased from 89.7% to 90.7%. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, the government debt to GDP ratio rose in both the euro area (from 83.9% to 98.0%) and the EU (from 77.5% to 90.7%): the increases are due to two factors – government debt increasing, and GDP decreasing.

At the end of the fourth quarter of 2020, debt securities accounted for 82.1% of euro area and for 81.8% of EU general government debt. Loans made up 14.6% and 15.1% respectively and currency and deposits represented 3.3% of euro area and 3.2% of EU government debt. Due to the involvement of EU Member States’ governments in financial assistance to certain Member States, quarterly data on intergovernmental lending (IGL) are also published. The share of IGL as percentage of GDP at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020 amounted to 2.0% in the euro area and to 1.7% in the EU.

Government debt at the end of the fourth quarter 2020 by Member State

The highest ratios of government debt to GDP at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020 were recorded in Greece (205.6%), Italy (155.8%), Portugal (133.6%), Spain (120.0%), Cyprus (118.2%), France (115.7%), and Belgium (114.1%), and the lowest in Estonia (18.2%), Luxembourg (24.9%) and Bulgaria (25.0%).

Compared with the third quarter of 2020, seventeen Member States registered an increase in their debt to GDP ratio at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020 and ten a decrease. The largest increases in the ratio were observed in Hungary (+6.5 percentage points – pp), Spain (+6.0 pp), Greece (+5.9 pp), Austria (+5.0 pp), Romania (+4.2 pp) and Portugal (+3.1 pp). The largest decreases were recorded in Ireland (-2.8 pp), Latvia and Luxembourg (both -1.2 pp), and Cyprus (-1.0 pp).

Compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, all Member States registered an increase in their debt to GDP ratio at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. The largest increases in the ratio were recorded in Greece (+25.1 pp), Spain (+24.5 pp), Cyprus (+24.2 pp), Italy (+21.2 pp) and France (+18.1 pp).

Compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, all Member States registered an increase in their debt to GDP ratio at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. The largest increases in the ratio were recorded in Greece (+25.1 pp), Spain (+24.5 pp), Cyprus (+24.2 pp), Italy (+21.2 pp) and France (+18.1 pp).

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Mondo. Pil 2021Q1. Primi dati provvisori, ma molto chiari. Purtroppo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-04-25.

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Sono stati resi disponibili i primi dati provvisori relativi al pil del primo trimestre 2021, calcolati anno su anno oppure annualizzati. Essendo valori provvisori, dovrebbero essere letti con molto buon senso.

Considerando tutti gli stati mondiali ordinati per valori decrescenti, solo due stati europei compaiono nei primi posti: la Turkia e l’Albania.

Persino la Guyana, il Lesotho e l’Etiopia hanno valori migliori di quelli europei.

La Tabella relativa al continente europeo è squalida.

Spain, Greece, Montenegro, United Kingdom, Croatia, Italy, Malta, Portugal,  Austria, Belgium, Iceland, Euro Area, France, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Germany, Hungary, Moldova, Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, Russia, Switzerland, Denmark, Latvia, Finland, Romania, Estonia presentano tutti valori negativi di variazione del pil anno su anno.

Questi dati dovrebbero dare da pensare agli attuali governanti, sia dei singoli stati sia dell’Unione Europea.

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