Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
Cina. Rcep. Non enfatizzato, il vero obiettivo è il controllo del mondo.
Asia. Firmato l’Accordo Rcep. Nasce il più grande mercato libero mondiale.
«The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement in the Asia-Pacific region between the ten member states of ASEAN, namely Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, and five of their FTA partners—Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea. The 15 negotiating countries account for about 30% of both the world’s population and the global GDP, making it the largest trade bloc. It was signed at the Vietnam-hosted virtual ASEAN Summit on 15 November 2020. ….
ASEAN leaders stated that the door remained open for India, which opted out in November 2019, to join later. ….
RCEP potentially includes more than 3 billion people or 45% of the world’s population, and a combined GDP of about $21.3 trillion, accounting for about 40 percent of world trade ….» [Fonte]
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Porsche to set up assembly plant in Malaysia: The Edge
«the United States …. is losing in influence»
«a community of sovereign nations».
Il 2020 ha visto una modesta contrazione del pil della Malaysia, ma tutti gli analisi concordano nell’affermare che esso dovrebbe salire molto bene nel 2021.
«The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting Malaysia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at a rate of 9%»
«HSBC Holdings plc co-head of Asian economics research Frederic Neumann forecast Malaysia’s economy to grow at 6.7% this year»
La Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) è stata una delle opere magistrali di Mr Xi. 15 paesi del sud-est asiatico posti ai bordi dell’Oceano Indiano che formano una zona di libero scambio per il 45% della popolazione mondiale, che produce 21.3 trilioni di Usd come pil.
IMF Expects Malaysia’s GDP Growth to Bounce Back to 9% in 2021
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting Malaysia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at a rate of 9% next year, the fastest among the five major developing economies in ASEAN. The ASEAN-5 – namely Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam – is expected to witness an average GDP growth of 7.8% during 2021, following a contraction of 0.68% during 2020. Malaysia’s economy is forecast to contract by 1.7% during 2020.
The IMF’s 2021 projection for Malaysia is much higher than Fitch Ratings’ growth forecast of 5.8%, and the body has cautioned for extreme uncertainty around its global growth forecast as the world is battered by the global COVID-19 pandemic and oil price crisis.
IMF has also forecast a global GDP growth of 5.8% for 2021, in contrast to 3% contraction for 2020. IMF cautiously anticipates that consumer confidence and sentiment will turn positive by 2021 and Malaysian households will remain financially sound, with better employment conditions and stable incomes during global and domestic economies recovery period. In terms of economic fundamentals, IMF expects Malaysia to continue to grow, supported by the government’s fiscal discipline and fiscal consolidation, a sustainable current account surplus, healthy foreign-exchange reserves as well as manageable inflationary pressure.
Nevertheless, Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd stated that no emerging markets, including Malaysia, can escape the downside risks of global recession in 2020, as advanced economies fall into recession. As of now, sovereign rating agencies would continue to monitor Malaysia’s macroeconomic developments, focusing on its economic growth, fiscal deficit and government debt, from the impact of COVID-19 and low global oil price.
HSBC forecasts 6% GDP growth in 2021 for Malaysia, ringgit to hit 3.96 by year-end
The reintroduction of the Movement Control Order (MCO) across major states in Malaysia is expected to pose some challenges to economic activity early in 2021, though experts anticipate the effects to gradually disappear as the year unfolds.
HSBC Holdings plc co-head of Asian economics research Frederic Neumann forecast Malaysia’s economy to grow at 6.7% this year, following an estimated contraction of 5.4% last year.
“The MCO 2.0 in place poses economic challenges in the beginning of the year, but we are quite confident that these economic effects will dissipate quickly over the course of this year, allowing Malaysia’s economy to achieve 6.7% growth,” he said at a press briefing on HSBC’s Asian Outlook for 2021.
HSBC expects another policy rate cut by Bank Negara Malaysia due to the lockdown and its economic impact at the beginning of the year.
From a regional perspective, Neumann expects South-East Asia to register strong growth from the second quarter onwards as the roll-out of vaccines in the region may take longer than some developed markets, which may impede recovery in sectors like tourism.
“There are downside risks if the vaccination programmes are not handled on time, but we think the risk is relatively low. “We look forward to a reasonable normalisation of domestic activity starting in the second half of the year, which is slightly delayed from the normalisation in developed parts of Asia like North-East Asia, Australia and New Zealand, but we think it is coming through,” he added.
On the ringgit, HSBC global head of foreign-exchange research Paul Mackel forecasts the local note to strengthen and trade at RM3.96 against the US dollar by year-end.
He expects the headwinds that are working against the ringgit currently to ease throughout the year, with higher commodity prices supporting the currency further.
“We deem it to be a relatively undervalued currency and that should help bolster the case for the ringgit to appreciate. Perhaps, there may even be some silver lining at some point with regard to the tourism angle as well,” he said.
Mackel expects Asian currencies to be resilient this year as a “benign” US dollar would help alleviate currencies in the region.
HSBC’s preference leans more towards emerging-market (EM) currencies, with the ringgit, Singapore dollar and the Philippines peso likely to stand out this year.
On the equity market, HSBC head of equity strategy for Asia Pacific Herald van der Linde pro- jects the benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI to edge towards 1,780 points by year-end.
He said Malaysia is typically considered to be a “defensive” market due to the good domestic demand for its equities and little volatility in valuation.
“That has changed to a certain extent because you have glove makers who have done phenomenally well.
“It was not a surprise for Malaysia to be the best performing Asean market, which was up 3.6% last year.
Malaysia. Belt and Roads. La Cina si avvantaggia della desistenza americana.
«The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is one of the largest in scale infrastructure projects in our history, which was proposed by the PRC as far back as 2013»
«Its main aim is to link via roads, railways, deep water ports, wharfs and industrial zones all 5 continents and approximately 130 of the world’s nations, which, on becoming a part of the BRI could promote trade and other activities and thus reap substantial economic benefits»
«The BRI initiative had such a successful start that by 2020, projects worth almost US$4 trillion had already been completed»
«Still, the ambitious nature and global scale of China’s economic expansion caused reservations among some participating countries with low and medium GDPs. On the one hand, these nations viewed the initiative as the only source of funds for financing their own infrastructure projects, and on the other hand, they worried about their growing debts to Beijing»
«the reaction to BRI in countries of South East Asia whose economic ties to China are strengthening with each passing day is noteworthy»
«It is no secret to anyone that some of the biggest projects of China’s global initiative are being implemented in South East Asian countries. In fact, it would suffice to mention the cross-border railway between China and Laos (US$ 6 billion), high speed rail in Indonesia (US$6 billion), the Kyaukpyu deep water port in Myanmar (US$ 7.3 billion) and many others»
«Malaysia is among China’s most important trade partners in South East Asia with the bilateral trade volume of US$124 billion in 2019»