Pubblicato in: Commercio

Italia. Marzo21. Export +28.1%, Import +35.1%, su base annua. – Istat.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-19.

2021-05-19__ Istat Import Export 001

Istat ha rilasciato il Report Commercio con l’Estero e prezzi all’Import.

*

Nota.

Le percentuali anno su anno sono inusitatamente elevate a seguito del forte calo dei commerci avvenuto lo scorso anno.

* * * * * * *


Marzo 2021. Commercio con l’Estero e prezzi all’Import.

– A marzo 2021 si stima una crescita congiunturale per i flussi commerciali con l’estero, più intensa per le importazioni (+6,0%) che per le esportazioni (+3,2%). L’incremento su base mensile dell’export è dovuto all’aumento delle vendite sia verso l’area Ue (+3,7%) sia verso i mercati extra Ue (+2,6%).

– Nel primo trimestre del 2021, rispetto al precedente, l’export aumenta del 2,6%, l’import del 5,0%.

– A marzo 2021, l’export sale su base annua del 28,1%; la crescita è più sostenuta verso l’area Ue (+32,6%) rispetto all’area extra Ue (+23,2%). L’import registra un aumento tendenziale più marcato (+35,1%), con incrementi di analoga entità verso entrambi i principali mercati di sbocco, Ue ed extra Ue.

– Tra i settori che contribuiscono maggiormente all’aumento tendenziale dell’export si segnalano macchinari e apparecchi n.c.a (che crescono del +32,3%), metalli di base e prodotti in metallo, esclusi macchine e impianti (+35,4%), autoveicoli (+80,1%), mezzi di trasporto, autoveicoli esclusi (+43,6%) e articoli di abbigliamento, anche in pelle e in pelliccia (+57,4%). Solo le vendite di articoli farmaceutici, chimico-medicinali e botanici (-9,3%) sono in calo.

– Su base annua, le esportazioni crescono verso tutti i principali paesi partner; i contributi maggiori riguardano le vendite verso Germania (con un aumento del 30,6%), Francia (+39,0%), Spagna (+37,4%), Svizzera (+35,7%) e Paesi Bassi (+51,6%).

– Nel primo trimestre del 2021, la crescita tendenziale dell’export (+4,6%) è dovuta in particolare all’incremento delle vendite di metalli di base e prodotti in metallo, esclusi macchine e impianti (+13,7%), macchinari e apparecchi n.c.a. (+8,5%), autoveicoli (+22,3%) e apparecchi elettrici (+14,9%).

-La stima del saldo commerciale a marzo 2021 è pari a +5.190 milioni di euro (era +5.701 a marzo 2020). Al netto dei prodotti energetici il saldo è pari a +7.984 milioni (era +7.707 a marzo dello scorso anno).

-Nel mese di marzo 2021 i prezzi all’importazione aumentano dell’1,9% su base mensile e del 4,2% su base annua.

* * * * * * *


Il commento.

A marzo prosegue la dinamica congiunturale positiva dell’export, sostenuta dal commercio estero con i paesi sia Ue sia extra Ue. Nel primo trimestre dell’anno, rispetto all’ultimo del 2020, l’aumento dell’export è trainato essenzialmente dalle vendite verso l’area Ue. Nel confronto con marzo 2020 – quando anche il commercio con l’estero iniziò a subire gli effetti dell’emergenza sanitaria – la crescita dell’export è molto marcata e diffusa a livello settoriale e verso tutti i principali paesi partner. Le vendite di macchinari e metalli forniscono il contributo più ampio (oltre 9 punti percentuali) al forte incremento tendenziale delle esportazioni. Anche la crescita su base annua dell’import, più marcata di quella dell’export, interessa in modo generalizzato tutti i settori. Per i prezzi all’import, il rialzo congiunturale è dovuto soprattutto alle dinamiche positive di energia e beni intermedi; su base annua, i prezzi tornano a crescere dopo quasi due anni di variazioni tendenziali negative.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Cina. Aprile21. Investimenti Diretti Esteri +38.60%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-18.

2021-05-15__ Cina Investimenti Esteri 001

«Il capitale straniero realmente utilizzato si riferisce a quelle somme effettivamente utilizzate secondo gli accordi ed i contratti, tra cui, liquidità, materiali e capitali invisibile come manodopera e tecnologie che entrambe le parti convengono di prendere come investimento»

In sintesi.

– 10,263 foreign-invested enterprises were established nationwide, +47.8% year-on-year

– The paid-in FDI in China was RMB302.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.9% (equivalent to USD44.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 43.8%

– In terms of the origin, the paid-in FDI of BRI countries, ASEAN and EU increased by 58.2%, 60% and 7.5% respectively

– Le imprese a capitale straniero hanno generato nel periodo gen-mar21un giro lordo di 491.4 miliardi di dollari

* * * * * * *

Questi macrodati dovrebbero dare molto cui pensare.

Se i governi dell’enclave liberal socialista occidentale persistono nelle loro accuse alla Cina di non essere sottostata ai loro ideali, specialmente agli human rights così come loro li concepiscono, nei fatti si constata come la realtà produttiva si comporti in modo ben differente.

Nel breve volgere di tre mesi, 10,263 imprese straniere a capitalizzazione straniera si sono trapiantate in Cina, con un +47.8% rispetto l’anno precedente, per 44.86 miliardi di Usd.

Si noti anche come l’Unione Europea sia ben poco rappresentata.

2021-05-15__ Cina Investimenti Esteri 002

Ma questi macrodati dovrebbero essere integrati da altri, per garantire una migliore comprensione del fenomeno.

Nel periodo gen-mar21 queste aziende hanno generato un interscambio lordo di 491.4 miliardi di dollari.

* * * * * * *


Ministry of Commerce People’s Republic of China. From January to March 2021, China’s FDI reached RMB302.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.9%

From January to March 2021, 10,263 foreign-invested enterprises were established nationwide, an increase of 47.8% year-on-year and an increase of 6.7% over the same period in 2019. The paid-in FDI in China was RMB302.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.9% (equivalent to USD44.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 43.8%; excluding banking, securities and insurance, same below), an increase of 24.8% over the same period in 2019.

In terms of industry, the paid-in FDI for services was RMB237.79 billion, up 51.5% year on year. The paid-in FDI for hi-tech industries increased by 32.1%, among which high-tech services increased by 43.9% and high-tech manufacturing by 2.5%.

In terms of the origin, the paid-in FDI of BRI countries, ASEAN and EU increased by 58.2%, 60% and 7.5% respectively (including investment via free ports).

In terms of regional distribution, FDI in eastern, central and western China increased by 38.2%, 36.8% and 91% respectively.

(All information published on this website is authentic in Chinese. English is provided for reference only.)

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Cina, Commercio

Cina. Marzo 21. Export +30.6%, Import +38.1%, anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-04-14.

«China’s exports missed forecast in March, while imports rose more than expected»

«Chinese exports last month jumped 30.6% from a year ago in U.S. dollar terms»

«The country’s imports in U.S. dollar terms rose 38.1% in March from a year ago»

«The stronger-than-expected rise in imports led China’s trade surplus to shrink to $13.8 billion in March, much narrower than the Reuters poll’s forecast of $52.05 billion»

«the latest data showed that China’s economic recovery is entering “a different phase”»

«we’re starting to see consumption also picking up very strongly»

«The country appeared to have largely contained the outbreak, and became the only major economy to register growth last year when it expanded by 2.3%»

«China has set a growth target of more than 6% for 2021, while the International Monetary Fund expects the Asian giant to expand by 8.4% this year»

* * * * * * *

Cina. 2020. Investimenti esteri +81% YoY. Superano quelli negli Usa.

H&M è scomparsa dalla Cina. Cerca di andare a Canossa, ma sarà dura. Se mai sarà.

Australia. La Cina porta al 175% il dazio su Treasury Wine Estates Ltd.

Cina. Impone sanzioni su personalità ed istituzioni del Regno Unito.

H&M, Nike ed Adidas offendono la Cina ed i cinesi non comprano più i loro prodotti.

Tesla. Cina ne vieta l’accesso nei siti militari, statali e cittadini.

Cina. Adesso produce auto elettriche a 4,230 Usd. Tesla Model 3 costa 38,000 Usd.

Guerra sinoamericana sui cavi internet e telefonici sottomarini. Il cavo ‘Peace’.

Cina. Gennaio-Febbraio. Profitti Industriali +178.9% su dodici mesi, +20.10% anno su anno.

H&M, Nike ed Adidas offendono la Cina ed i cinesi non comprano più i loro prodotti.

Immatricolazioni auto. Febbraio. UK -35.5%, I -12.3%, D -19.0%, F -20.9%, YoY. Cina +365%.

Norvegia. Russia e Cina la stanno comprando pezzo per pezzo.

Cina. Febbraio. Produzione Industriale +35.1%, Vendite al Dettaglio +33.8, anno su anno.

Cina. Fixed Assets, +35.0% anno su anno, +3.5% sui primi due mesi 2019.

Cina. Ferro. Importa circa il 70% del materiale estratto a livello mondiale.

* * * * * * *

Cina, Asean e Rcep stanno espandendo i propri sistemi economici a ritmo vertiginoso.

L’enclave liberal occidentale giace inerte come una medusa spiaggiata.

*


China’s exports missed forecast in March, while imports rose more than expected

– Chinese exports last month jumped 30.6% from a year ago in U.S. dollar terms, lagging the 35.5% increase that analysts polled by Reuters had expected.

– The country’s imports in U.S. dollar terms rose 38.1% in March from a year ago, exceeding the 23.3% increase those analysts had forecast.

– Paras Anand, Asia-Pacific chief investment officer at Fidelity International, said the latest data showed that China’s economic recovery is entering “a different phase.”

*

China on Tuesday reported March exports data that missed analyst forecasts while imports for the month rose more than expected.

Chinese exports last month jumped 30.6% from a year ago in U.S. dollar terms, lagging the 35.5% increase that analysts polled by Reuters had expected. Meanwhile, the country’s imports in U.S. dollar terms rose 38.1% in March from a year ago, exceeding the 23.3% increase those analysts had forecast.

The stronger-than-expected rise in imports led China’s trade surplus to shrink to $13.8 billion in March, much narrower than the Reuters poll’s forecast of $52.05 billion.

Paras Anand, Asia-Pacific chief investment officer at Fidelity International, said the latest data showed that China’s economic recovery is entering “a different phase.”

He told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” following the data release that over the last few months, China’s recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic had concentrated on output as seen in strong exports numbers. But demand appears to be picking up now, he added.

“As we’re now moving into the recovery in China getting to a more mature level, we’re starting to see consumption also picking up very strongly,” said Anand.

China was the first country to report cases of the coronavirus in late 2019. Official data showed the economy hitting its trough in the first quarter of 2020 when the number of infections peaked.

The country appeared to have largely contained the outbreak, and became the only major economy to register growth last year when it expanded by 2.3%. China has set a growth target of more than 6% for 2021, while the International Monetary Fund expects the Asian giant to expand by 8.4% this year.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio

H&M. Dopo la Cina oltraggia anche il Vietnam. L’Asia è sugli scudi. Esige rispetto.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-04-13.

Asia Sud Est 001

H&M, Nike ed Adidas offendono la Cina ed i cinesi non comprano più i loro prodotti.

Shanghai. Governo chiede ad H&M di ritrattare. – La mutazione di Reuters.

H&M è scomparsa dalla Cina. Cerca di andare a Canossa, ma sarà dura. Se mai sarà.

Hugo Boss China continuerebbe ad usare il cotone dello Xinjiang.

* * *

Ford China sales up 73.3 percent in Q1

Il mercato sinoasiatico è l’unico al mondo ad essere in crescita tumultuosa. Le società occidentali che intendono sopravvivere sono obbligate a scappare dall’enclave occidentale liberal ed a rifugiarsi in Cina e nel mercato Asean e Rcep, ossia il mercato di libero scambio del sudest asiatico.

Ma per operare su tali mercati le società transfughe devono abbandonare la retorica liberal, pena l’ostracismo.

Gli orientali non intendono comprare le merci di quanti li denigrino e non li rispettino.

Ed i problemi delle ditte occidentali non si fermano solo a quelli cinesi.

* * *

«Hennes & Mauritz AB’s woes in Asia deepened after a “problematic” map on its website drew the attention of Chinese authorities, with the retailer’s attempts to resolve the matter then angering consumers in Vietnam»

«H&M’s Shanghai unit was summoned by two of the city’s regulators to correct mistakes on the image, and the company said it will carry out the rectification»

«Changes by the Swedish company to its map are infringing on Vietnam’s maritime sovereignty, the Saigon Giai Phong newspaper reported»

«H&M recently became a high-profile example of foreign companies punished for crossing China’s political lines, facing the brunt of the government’s ire against clothing retailers who criticize human rights abuses in the cotton-producing Xinjiang region»

«H&M’s outlets vanished from Apple Maps and Baidu Maps searches, and some stores in smaller cities were closed by landlords»

«China claims more than 80% of the South China Sea and backs up its claim with a 1947 map that shows vague dashes — the so-called nine-dash line — looping down to a point about 1,100 miles (1,800 kilometers) south of its Hainan island»

«Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan claim parts of the same maritime area, and have sparred with China over which claims are valid»

«Vietnamese law bars companies from using images that infringe on its sovereignty, which the nine-dash line represents»

«In 2019, Vietnam ordered cinemas to halt screenings of DreamWorks Animation’s “Abominable” because it showed the nine-dash line on a map»

* * * * * * *

Le realtà produttive dell’enclave occidentale liberal hanno adesso solo due alternative.

O morire di inedia assieme all’occidente, oppure trasformarsi ed operare secondo la mentalità asiatica, rispettandola.

Tertium non datur.

* * * * * * *


H&M’s Troubles in Asia Compound Over ‘Problematic’ Map of Region.

Hennes & Mauritz AB’s woes in Asia deepened after a “problematic” map on its website drew the attention of Chinese authorities, with the retailer’s attempts to resolve the matter then angering consumers in Vietnam.

H&M’s Shanghai unit was summoned by two of the city’s regulators to correct mistakes on the image, and the company said it will carry out the rectification, according to the local arm of the Cyberspace Administration of China on Friday. It didn’t elaborate on the corrections that were ordered, and it’s not immediately clear which map on H&M’s website is in question.

Changes by the Swedish company to its map are infringing on Vietnam’s maritime sovereignty, the Saigon Giai Phong newspaper reported, citing the chairman of one of the country’s consumer rights associations. H&M’s spokespeople in China and Stockholm didn’t immediately respond to requests for comments outside of business hours.

H&M recently became a high-profile example of foreign companies punished for crossing China’s political lines, facing the brunt of the government’s ire against clothing retailers who criticize human rights abuses in the cotton-producing Xinjiang region.

It was called out by the Communist Youth League and the People’s Liberation Army for a statement dating back to September that expressed concern about reports of Uyghurs in forced labor. H&M’s outlets vanished from Apple Maps and Baidu Maps searches, and some stores in smaller cities were closed by landlords.

China claims more than 80% of the South China Sea and backs up its claim with a 1947 map that shows vague dashes — the so-called nine-dash line — looping down to a point about 1,100 miles (1,800 kilometers) south of its Hainan island. Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan claim parts of the same maritime area, and have sparred with China over which claims are valid.

Vietnamese law bars companies from using images that infringe on its sovereignty, which the nine-dash line represents, the Saigon Giai Phong said. H&M opened its first store in Ho Chi Minh City in 2017 and now has 12 outlets across the country, the paper said.

On the internet, Vietnamese consumers criticized H&M’s reported acquiescence to Chinese authorities. Some called for a boycott of H&M’s products, demanded the company apologize to Vietnam and restore changes to the map or close its Vietnam outlets, the Saigon Giai Phong said.

H&M is the latest example of a business getting caught in geopolitical crossfires as countries tussle over issues ranging from sovereignty claims to maritime boundaries.

In 2019, Vietnam ordered cinemas to halt screenings of DreamWorks Animation’s “Abominable” because it showed the nine-dash line on a map. That same year, Vietnam said it will fine Volkswagen AG’s local distributor and an importer for showcasing a car with a navigation app reflecting Chinese territorial claims.

While Vietnam has been the region’s most forceful nation in pushing back against Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea, tensions have been simmering between the Philippines and China as well.

The presence of hundreds of Chinese vessels near a South China Sea reef last month shows Beijing’s intent to occupy more disputed areas, Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said on Sunday.

The Chinese embassy in Manila said the waters where the vessels were spotted were “traditional fishing grounds” and “part of China’s Nansha Islands.” The Philippines had issued a formal diplomatic protest to China over the matter, saying that the ships’ presence raised concerns on overfishing and safety of navigation.

Pubblicato in: Commercio, Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Mondiale

Suez. Collo di bottiglia dell’enclave occidentale, non del mondo.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-03-31.

2021-03-29__ Suez 001

«The Suez Canal, which cuts through Egypt to connect the Mediterranean and Red seas, is so important to world trade that world powers have fought over it since it was completed in 1869»

«The 193 kilometer (120 mile) man-made waterway cuts through Egypt to connect the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea, and by extension the Atlantic and Indian oceans»

«That makes it a key transit point for ships moving goods between Asia and Europe and the eastern U.S. It entered service in 1869, 45 years before the Panama Canal»

«About 12% of world trade passes through the canal each year, everything from crude oil to grains to instant coffee. Without Suez, a supertanker carrying Mideast crude oil to Europe would have to travel an extra 6,000 miles around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, adding some $300,000 in fuel costs»

«Just about every good imaginable, adding up in 2019 to 1.03 billion tons of cargo, according to the Suez Canal Authority. That’s roughly four times more than passed through the Panama Canal»

«The canal’s location makes it a key link for shipping crude oil and other hydrocarbons from countries such as Saudi Arabia to Europe and North America»

«Among other goods, 54.1 million tons of cereal passed through the canal, 53.5 million tons of ores and metals and 35.4 million tons of coal and coke in 2019»

«Egypt’s anti-colonial President Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalized the canal in 1956, a move that sparked the Suez Crisis that same year when Israeli, British and France forces staged an invasion of the Sinai and canal zone. The crisis, which ended after the U.S. intervened against the invasion»

«Today, the canal is operated by the state-owned Suez Canal Authority and is a major money-earner for Egypt’s government, generating $5.61 billion in revenue last year»

* * * * * * *

Per la loro innata modestia ed umiltà, i media occidentali liberal identificano sé stessi come il “mondo“.

Ma questo è oramai soltanto una loro allucinazione ideologica.

I paesi del sud est asiatico, Cina in testa, con l’Asean e con il Rcep, hanno da tempo superato l’enclave occidentale intermini di pil ppa, ed esportano per lo più all’interno dell’Asean e del Rcep.

Cina. Febbraio 2021. Export +60.6%, Import +22.2% anno su anno, Saldo +103.25 mld Usd.

L’export cinese ammonta al 25% verso le Americhe, al 20% verso il blocco europeo ed al 48% verso l’Asia.

Se sicuramente l’export verso l’occidente sia ancora rilevante, tuttavia la sua quota sarebbe costantemente in caduta: i commercio con tra i paesi asiatici stanno crescendo a vista d’occhio.

Il caso della superportacontainer incagliata nel canale, sempre che sia stato un incidente casuale, tange in ben poco gli interessi asiatici, mentre colpisce duramente quelli occidentali, specie nel traffico dei cereali, del greggio, dei metalli estrattivi e del carbone.

È stato sufficiente bloccare un collo di bottiglia strategico per dare un colpo feroce al sistema economico occidentale.

E mica è detto che un incidente di tal tipo non possa ripetersi.

*


Why a Canal Built in 1869 Is More Important Than Ever.

The Suez Canal, which cuts through Egypt to connect the Mediterranean and Red seas, is so important to world trade that world powers have fought over it since it was completed in 1869. That strategic shipping lane was completely blocked on March 23, when the heavily laden cargo ship Ever Given, longer than the Eiffel Tower is tall, went askew in heavy winds and got its bow wedged into the side of the waterway. The mishap snarled international shipping amid efforts by elite teams to refloat the massive vessel.

  1. What’s the Suez Canal?

The 193 kilometer (120 mile) man-made waterway cuts through Egypt to connect the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea, and by extension the Atlantic and Indian oceans. That makes it a key transit point for ships moving goods between Asia and Europe and the eastern U.S. It entered service in 1869, 45 years before the Panama Canal, which is much shorter, linking the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The sea-level canal is the longest in the world without locks, with a normal transit time from end to end of about 13-15 hours, according to GlobalSecurity.org.

Container Ship Blocking Suez Canal Paralyzes Trade

  1. Why is it so important?

About 12% of world trade passes through the canal each year, everything from crude oil to grains to instant coffee. Without Suez, a supertanker carrying Mideast crude oil to Europe would have to travel an extra 6,000 miles around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, adding some $300,000 in fuel costs (although there would be savings from avoiding the Suez passage tolls, which can run hundreds of thousands of dollars.) Because it has no locks, it can even handle aircraft carriers.

  1. What travels through it?

Just about every good imaginable, adding up in 2019 to 1.03 billion tons of cargo, according to the Suez Canal Authority. That’s roughly four times more than passed through the Panama Canal. The canal’s location makes it a key link for shipping crude oil and other hydrocarbons from countries such as Saudi Arabia to Europe and North America. Among other goods, 54.1 million tons of cereal passed through the canal, 53.5 million tons of ores and metals and 35.4 million tons of coal and coke in 2019.

Tight Fit

There’s not a lot of room for maneuver in the Suez Canal for a ship as big as Ever Given

Source: Suez Canal Authority and ship tracking data monitored by Bloomberg

  1. What are the origins of the canal?

The idea dates back to antiquity but it wasn’t until the mid 19th century that Egypt’s Ottoman viceroy Said Pasha granted a French company a concession to build the canal. The project took 10 years and some 1.5 million laborers and cost $100 million ($1.9 billion today), twice the initial estimate. The canal entered service in 1869 but its owners faced financial difficulties shortly after and were forced to sell a controlling stake to the U.K., which ran the canal for the next eight decades.

  1. Who owns it today?

Egypt’s anti-colonial President Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalized the canal in 1956, a move that sparked the Suez Crisis that same year when Israeli, British and France forces staged an invasion of the Sinai and canal zone. The crisis, which ended after the U.S. intervened against the invasion, resulted in the canal’s closure for a year. (It also saw the first UN peacekeeping force.) A decade later, the 1967 Israeli-Arab war prompted Egypt to close Suez to ship traffic for eight years as Egyptian and Israeli forces faced off across the water. Today, the canal is operated by the state-owned Suez Canal Authority and is a major money-earner for Egypt’s government, generating $5.61 billion in revenue last year. An $8 billion expansion of the canal was launched in 2015 with the goal of increasing ship traffic and more than doubling revenue.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Commercio, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

Giappone. Febbraio. Export annualizzato -4.5%. Asia ben più importante dell’America.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-03-21.

2021-03-18__ Giappone Export 001

Il Giappone è il grande malato dell’Asia.

Giappone. Il grande malato dell’oriente. Export -6.3% anno su anno.

Giappone. Produzione Industriale -4.5% mom.

Giappone. Ordinativi di macchine utensili (Annuale) -35.5% a/a.

Giappone. Import -12.0% anno/anno. Quarto consecutivo.

Giappone. Export -5.2% yoy. Dodicesimo mese negativo.

Giappone. Un vecchio ogni 1.8 giovani. Cina e Russia si leccano i baffi.

Giappone. 2020. pil Q4 su Q3, annualizzato +11.7%. Reale -4.0%, anno su anno. Caveat.

Giappone. Gennaio 2021. Spesa delle Famiglie -6.1% anno su anno. Entrate -3.2%.

Giappone. 2020Q4. Pil -4.8% anno 2020 su anno 2019.

Giappone. Novembre. Consumi Famiglie -10.2% anno su anno.

2021-03-18__ Giappone Export 002

* * * * * * *

2021-03-18__ Giappone Export 003

Trade Statistics of Japan, Ministry of Finance, ha rilasciato il Report February 2021 (Provisional) (PDF file).

Contents

  1. Total
  2. Value of Exports and Imports by Area ( Country )
  3. Exports by Principal Commodity ( World )
  4. Imports by Principal Commodity ( World )
  5. Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( USA )
  6. Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( EU )
  7. Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( ASIA )
  8. Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( CHINA )
  9. Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( R KOREA )
  10. Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( ASEAN )
  11. Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( MIDDLE EAST )
  12. Exports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( RUSSIA )
  13. Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( USA )
  14. Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( EU )
  15. Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( ASIA )
  16. Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( CHINA )
  17. Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( R KOREA )
  18. Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( ASEAN )
  19. Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( MIDDLE EAST )
  20. Imports by Principal Commodity by (Country) ( RUSSIA )
  21. Indexes of Trade
  22. Indexes of Trade ( WORLD )
  23. Indexes of Trade ( USA )
  24. Indexes of Trade ( EU )
  25. Indexes of Trade ( ASIA )
  26. Indexes of Trade ( CHINA )

* * * * * * *


L’analitico delle esportazioni spiega anche molto bene la politica estera giapponese. 

Mentre esporta verso l’Asia beni per 3,343,967 milioni di Yen, esporta verso il Nord America 1,169,033 milioni di Yen e verso l’Europa Occidentale 691,897 milioni di Yen.

L’enclave occidentale sta diventando giorno dopo giorno sempre meno importante per il Giappone.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Cina. Febbraio. Vendite automobili +365%, 2021-02 su 2020-02.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-03-15.

2021-03-15__Cina automobili 001

«Le vendite di auto in Cina, il più grande mercato automobilistico del mondo, sono aumentate del 365% a febbraio rispetto allo stesso mese dell’anno precedente»

«Le vendite si sono attestate a 1,46 milioni di veicoli a febbraio, registrando l’undicesimo aumento mensile consecutivo»

«Le case automobilistiche, tra cui Toyota e Geely, hanno registrato una crescita delle vendite a tre cifre il mese scorso»

«In February 2021, the national narrow passenger vehicle production was 1.132 million, a year-on-year increase of 472.8%, of which the production of passenger cars was 540,000, a year-on-year increase of 464.7%; the production of SUVs was 542,000, a year-on-year increase of 481.5%; the output of MPV was 51,000, a year-on-year increase 469.5%.»

«In February 2021, the national retail sales of passenger vehicles in the narrow sense was 1.177 million, a year-on-year increase of 371.9%; among them, the retail sales of passenger cars was 558,000, a year-on-year increase of 345.1%; the retail sales of SUVs was 556,000, a year-on-year increase of 426.7%; the retail sales of MPV was 6.3 Million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 240.7%.»

2021-03-15__Cina automobili 002

* * * * * * *

Il sistema economico cinese sta crescendo a ritmi impressionanti, per nulla turbato dal comportamento dell’enclave liberal socialista occidentale.

Con i trattati dell’Asean prim,a e del Rcept dopo, la zona geoeconomica del sud est asiatico ha tratto una forza mai vista in passato.

Cina. Si avvicina con garbo al potere mondiale. Accupa tutti gli spazi che l’occidente abbandona.

Cina. “Homosexuality as a “psychological disorder” in a university textbook”.

Cina. Si ribella alla femminilizzazione dei suoi maschi. Li vuole virili.

Cina. 2020. Spesa in ricerca e sviluppo salita a 378 miliardi Usd, +10%.

Guerra fredda sino-americana. Cina medita restrizioni alla esportazione delle terre rare.

Terre Rare. Chi le controlla, controlla il mondo. Piaccia o meno, è la Cina.

Cina. Consolida il suo impero in Africa.

Cina penetra economicamente l’Africa subsahariana.

Pechino assorbe il 30% dell’export di 9 Paesi subsahariani.

Cina. Rcep. Non enfatizzato, il vero obiettivo è il controllo del mondo.

Laos. A dicembre sarà operativa la ferrovia che congiunge con la Cina. 422 km di tunnel e ponti.

Ferrovia Cina – Europa. 2020. 12,400 treni, +50% anno su anno.

Cina. Gennaio. Vendite automobili +30% anno su anno.

Bbc. Bandita dalla Cina perché propala fake news. – Xinhua e Bbc.

Cina. 2020Q4. Pil +6.5%, Produzione Industriale +7.3%, Vendite al Dettaglio +4.6%. Meglio del previsto.

Cina. Febbraio 2021. Export +60.6%, Import +22.2% anno su anno, Saldo +103.25 mld Usd.

*

Immatricolazioni auto tedesche febbraio 2021, -31.1% anno su anno.

Immatricolazioni auto francesi febbraio 2021, -20.9% anno su anno.

Il problema non è il Covid: il problema sono i governi dell’enclave liberal socialista e le loro ideologie.

*

Cina, vendite auto quadruplicano a febbraio, con undicesimo aumento mensile consecutivo.

Pechino (Reuters) – Le vendite di auto in Cina, il più grande mercato automobilistico del mondo, sono aumentate del 365% a febbraio rispetto allo stesso mese dell’anno precedente, in quanto il Paese sta guidando la ripresa dell’industria globale dalla pandemia di Covid-19.

Le vendite si sono attestate a 1,46 milioni di veicoli a febbraio, registrando l’undicesimo aumento mensile consecutivo.

È quanto emerge dai dati pubblicati dalla China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (Caam).

Un anno fa, le vendite di auto in Cina sono state duramente colpite dalle restrizioni ai viaggi a livello nazionale a causa della pandemia. Tuttavia, il mercato ha iniziato a riprendersi nel secondo trimestre, insieme al resto dell’economia, poiché il coronavirus è stato in gran parte tenuto sotto controllo.

Le case automobilistiche, tra cui Toyota e Geely, hanno registrato una crescita delle vendite a tre cifre il mese scorso.

Le vendite di veicoli a nuova energia (Nev), inclusi i veicoli elettrici a batteria, gli ibridi plug-in benzina-elettrici e i veicoli a celle a combustibile a idrogeno, sono aumentate del 585% a febbraio, a 110.000 unità.

*


China Passenger Car Association: In February 2021, retail sales of passenger vehicles in a narrow sense of 1.18 million units increased by 371.9% year-on-year_Market.

According to the “Analysis of the National Passenger Car Market” issued by the Passenger Car Market Information Joint Conference, Sohu Automobile Research Office compiled the situation of the national passenger car market in February 2021. The details are as follows:

In February 2021, the national narrow passenger vehicle production was 1.132 million, a year-on-year increase of 472.8%, of which the production of passenger cars was 540,000, a year-on-year increase of 464.7%; the production of SUVs was 542,000, a year-on-year increase of 481.5%; the output of MPV was 51,000, a year-on-year increase 469.5%.

Retail sales: In February 2021, the national retail sales of passenger vehicles in the narrow sense was 1.177 million, a year-on-year increase of 371.9%; among them, the retail sales of passenger cars was 558,000, a year-on-year increase of 345.1%; the retail sales of SUVs was 556,000, a year-on-year increase of 426.7%; the retail sales of MPV was 6.3 Million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 240.7%.

Wholesale sales: In February, the national wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in a narrow sense was 1.135 million units, a year-on-year increase of 409.7%. Among them, the wholesale sales of sedans were 526,000, a year-on-year increase of 450.3%; the wholesale sales of SUVs were 563,000, a year-on-year increase of 399.7%; the wholesale sales of MPVs was 46,000, a year-on-year increase of 220.1%.

(3) Monthly sales trend chart of domestic passenger vehicles in a narrow sense from 2017 to February 2021

In February, the output of new energy passenger vehicles reached 113,000, an increase of 772.4% year-on-year; among them, the output of BEV was 99,000, an increase of 780.3% year-on-year; the output of PHEV was 15,000, an increase of 722.3% year-on-year.

In February, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 97,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 675%; among them, BEV retail sales were 81,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 611.6%; PHEV retail sales were 16,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 13296%.

In February, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles was 100,000, a year-on-year increase of 640%; among them, the wholesale sales of BEV was 84,000, a year-on-year increase of 624.3%; the wholesale sales of PHEV was 16,000, a year-on-year increase of 737.5%.

Retail sales of passenger cars in a narrow sense: In February, FAW-Volkswagen ranked first, with sales of 116,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 284.7%, and a market share of 9.9%; SAIC Volkswagen remained second with sales of 99,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 255.8% and a market share of 8.4%; Changan Automobile jumped to The third place, sales of 97,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 699.5%, market share 8.3%.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Diplomazia, Geopolitica Asiatica

Myanmar. Occasione di accordo politico per l’Asean.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-03-02.

ASEAN–China Free Trade Area. China and ASEAN in blue 001

Asean si auto definisce come ‘One Vision. One Identity. One Community.’

Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar (Burma), Brunei, Cambodia, Laos sono gli stati membri.

«The ASEAN–China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) is a free-trade area among the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the People’s Republic of China.»

«The free trade agreement reduced tariffs on 7,881 product categories, or 90 percent of imported goods, to zero. This reduction took effect in China and the six original members of ASEAN: Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand …. The remaining four countries …. to follow suit»

* * * * * * *

«The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has traditionally had a strict policy of political non-interference in the internal affairs of member states»

«And the association remained true to that principle despite the events of the past five years in member state Myanmar»

«Part of what enabled ASEAN to function as normal regarding Myanmar through the Rohingya crisis was that most of the refugees fleeing the country ended up in Bangladesh, which is not a member of the association»

«Tens of thousands of Rohingya went south by sea, washing up on the shores of Malaysia, Indonesia and other members of the grouping»

«Where the US and the EU have outright condemned the coup and demanded a full reversal of the situation, Indonesia took a more delicate and much more promising approach»

«It called on the military to hold elections later this year, as it promised it would do during the coup, and proposed that the elections be monitored by ASEAN observers»

«This is a wise move for a number of reasons»

«First, the demand goes no further than holding the new military government to its own word»

«Secondly, it gives the military government of Myanmar a way out that does not involve a political concession of having made an error or having done something wrong …. This saves face and that is something that will carry a lot of weight for the generals …. it may shield military leaders from any legal or constitutional liability for having ordered the coup»

«Lastly, this move brings the entire weight of the trading bloc to apply pressure on the military government to leave power in a way that may well prove to be the most effective means to that end, all while nominally maintaining the principle of “non-interference.”»

«It remains to be seen whether this first foray into this area will bear any fruit, but the effort is certainly a noble one and a very well executed one too»

* * * * * * *

Biden orders sanctions on Myanmar generals as key Aung San Suu Kyi aide detained

White House. Executive Order on Blocking Property with Respect to the Situation in Burma

«the military overthrew the democratically elected civilian government of Burma …. undermining the country’s democratic transition and rule of law, constitutes an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States.  I hereby declare a national emergency to deal with that threat»

*

Gli Stati Uniti vedono nei fatti accaduti in Myanmar, che loro denominano con l’esonimo Burba, un pericolo imminente e reale alla loro sicurezza nazionale, così grave da dichiarare “a national emergency”. Quanto accaduto mette in crisi la loro ideologia, che evidentemente non fa presa sulle altre nazioni: quindi, sanzioni, come ai bei tempi nei quali gli Stati Uniti contavano ancora qualcosa nel mondo.

Quanto sia differente la risposta dell’Asean è lampante.

Rispetta la sovranità nazionale, non impone alcunché, propone una soluzione che contemperi tutte le esigenze.

Questo è ciò che comunemente è denominato essere la diplomazia. Ossia l’arte del reale non disgiunto dal buon senso.

 *


ASEAN must become political to deal with Myanmar.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has traditionally had a strict policy of political non-interference in the internal affairs of member states. And the association remained true to that principle despite the events of the past five years in member state Myanmar, where the military carried out “clearing operations” against some 1 million civilians belonging to the Rohingya minority. But this will not remain an option for much longer. And the pivot of the transformation will be Myanmar.

Part of what enabled ASEAN to function as normal regarding Myanmar through the Rohingya crisis was that most of the refugees fleeing the country ended up in Bangladesh, which is not a member of the association. But that has not been universally the case. Tens of thousands of Rohingya went south by sea, washing up on the shores of Malaysia, Indonesia and other members of the grouping. Concerns about what is happening in Myanmar had been raised within ASEAN forums by Malaysia and Indonesia, but these efforts were resisted. Now Indonesia is paving the way for a new approach, prompted above all by the recent coup d’etat carried out by the military in Naypyidaw.

Where the US and the EU have outright condemned the coup and demanded a full reversal of the situation, Indonesia took a more delicate and much more promising approach. It called on the military to hold elections later this year, as it promised it would do during the coup, and proposed that the elections be monitored by ASEAN observers.

This is a wise move for a number of reasons. First, the demand goes no further than holding the new military government to its own word. The motivation the military cited for the coup was “electoral irregularities” in the polls last year and its claim was that all it wanted was a “fair” re-run of the election. The presence of ASEAN observers would do much to guarantee a more fair election than one run entirely by the military itself. As such, the move could even fly under the threshold of “political interference” in the internal affairs of Myanmar, either by Indonesia or by ASEAN

Secondly, it gives the military government of Myanmar a way out that does not involve a political concession of having made an error or having done something wrong. This makes it much more likely that it would allow this to happen, as opposed to the explicit demands coming from the West that it should not be in power. This saves face and that is something that will carry a lot of weight for the generals. But, perhaps even more importantly, it may shield military leaders from any legal or constitutional liability for having ordered the coup in the first place. They would thus be allowed to walk away from the path of direct military government in Naypyidaw in a way that means they would not immediately face prison as soon as they yielded power to a civilian government.

Lastly, this move brings the entire weight of the trading bloc to apply pressure on the military government to leave power in a way that may well prove to be the most effective means to that end, all while nominally maintaining the principle of “non-interference.”

Of course, this will in practice be interference: Everyone knows that elections would overwhelmingly return support for parties opposed to the military and its powerbase, primarily the National League for Democracy (NLD) of Aung San Suu Kyi — especially if the elections are allowed to be overseen by ASEAN observers. So for Indonesia and ASEAN to call for a fair election is in effect for them to call for an NLD government; and so ASEAN will have become politicized and a force for democracy in Southeast Asia. And that’s no bad thing.

In time, the institution will likely come to acknowledge this explicitly and even embrace this new political role. It remains to be seen whether this first foray into this area will bear any fruit, but the effort is certainly a noble one and a very well executed one too.

Pubblicato in: Cina, Economia e Produzione Industriale, Geopolitica Asiatica

Malaysia. Pil 2021 proiettato tra il +6.7% ed il +9%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-02-18.

Malesia, Indonesia, Stretto di Malacca 001

Cina. Rcep. Non enfatizzato, il vero obiettivo è il controllo del mondo.

Asia. Firmato l’Accordo Rcep. Nasce il più grande mercato libero mondiale.

«The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement in the Asia-Pacific region between the ten member states of ASEAN, namely Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, and five of their FTA partners—Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea. The 15 negotiating countries account for about 30% of both the world’s population and the global GDP, making it the largest trade bloc. It was signed at the Vietnam-hosted virtual ASEAN Summit on 15 November 2020. ….

ASEAN leaders stated that the door remained open for India, which opted out in November 2019, to join later. ….

RCEP potentially includes more than 3 billion people or 45% of the world’s population, and a combined GDP of about $21.3 trillion, accounting for about 40 percent of world trade ….» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

Porsche to set up assembly plant in Malaysia: The Edge

«the United States …. is losing in influence»

«a community of sovereign nations».

Il 2020 ha visto una modesta contrazione del pil della Malaysia, ma tutti gli analisi concordano nell’affermare che esso dovrebbe salire molto bene nel 2021.

«The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting Malaysia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at a rate of 9%»

«HSBC Holdings plc co-head of Asian economics research Frederic Neumann forecast Malaysia’s economy to grow at 6.7% this year»

La Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) è stata una delle opere magistrali di Mr Xi. 15 paesi del sud-est asiatico posti ai bordi dell’Oceano Indiano che formano una zona di libero scambio per il 45% della popolazione mondiale, che produce 21.3 trilioni di Usd come pil.

*


IMF Expects Malaysia’s GDP Growth to Bounce Back to 9% in 2021

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting Malaysia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at a rate of 9% next year, the fastest among the five major developing economies in ASEAN. The ASEAN-5 – namely Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam – is expected to witness an average GDP growth of 7.8% during 2021, following a contraction of 0.68% during 2020. Malaysia’s economy is forecast to contract by 1.7% during 2020.

The IMF’s 2021 projection for Malaysia is much higher than Fitch Ratings’ growth forecast of 5.8%, and the body has cautioned for extreme uncertainty around its global growth forecast as the world is battered by the global COVID-19 pandemic and oil price crisis.

IMF has also forecast a global GDP growth of 5.8% for 2021, in contrast to 3% contraction for 2020. IMF cautiously anticipates that consumer confidence and sentiment will turn positive by 2021 and Malaysian households will remain financially sound, with better employment conditions and stable incomes during global and domestic economies recovery period. In terms of economic fundamentals, IMF expects Malaysia to continue to grow, supported by the government’s fiscal discipline and fiscal consolidation, a sustainable current account surplus, healthy foreign-exchange reserves as well as manageable inflationary pressure.

Nevertheless, Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd stated that no emerging markets, including Malaysia, can escape the downside risks of global recession in 2020, as advanced economies fall into recession. As of now, sovereign rating agencies would continue to monitor Malaysia’s macroeconomic developments, focusing on its economic growth, fiscal deficit and government debt, from the impact of COVID-19 and low global oil price.

*


HSBC forecasts 6% GDP growth in 2021 for Malaysia, ringgit to hit 3.96 by year-end

The reintroduction of the Movement Control Order (MCO) across major states in Malaysia is expected to pose some challenges to economic activity early in 2021, though experts anticipate the effects to gradually disappear as the year unfolds.

HSBC Holdings plc co-head of Asian economics research Frederic Neumann forecast Malaysia’s economy to grow at 6.7% this year, following an estimated contraction of 5.4% last year.

“The MCO 2.0 in place poses economic challenges in the beginning of the year, but we are quite confident that these economic effects will dissipate quickly over the course of this year, allowing Malaysia’s economy to achieve 6.7% growth,” he said at a press briefing on HSBC’s Asian Outlook for 2021.

HSBC expects another policy rate cut by Bank Negara Malaysia due to the lockdown and its economic impact at the beginning of the year.

From a regional perspective, Neumann expects South-East Asia to register strong growth from the second quarter onwards as the roll-out of vaccines in the region may take longer than some developed markets, which may impede recovery in sectors like tourism.

“There are downside risks if the vaccination programmes are not handled on time, but we think the risk is relatively low. “We look forward to a reasonable normalisation of domestic activity starting in the second half of the year, which is slightly delayed from the normalisation in developed parts of Asia like North-East Asia, Australia and New Zealand, but we think it is coming through,” he added.

On the ringgit, HSBC global head of foreign-exchange research Paul Mackel forecasts the local note to strengthen and trade at RM3.96 against the US dollar by year-end.

He expects the headwinds that are working against the ringgit currently to ease throughout the year, with higher commodity prices supporting the currency further.

“We deem it to be a relatively undervalued currency and that should help bolster the case for the ringgit to appreciate. Perhaps, there may even be some silver lining at some point with regard to the tourism angle as well,” he said.

Mackel expects Asian currencies to be resilient this year as a “benign” US dollar would help alleviate currencies in the region.

HSBC’s preference leans more towards emerging-market (EM) currencies, with the ringgit, Singapore dollar and the Philippines peso likely to stand out this year.

On the equity market, HSBC head of equity strategy for Asia Pacific Herald van der Linde pro- jects the benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI to edge towards 1,780 points by year-end.

He said Malaysia is typically considered to be a “defensive” market due to the good domestic demand for its equities and little volatility in valuation.

“That has changed to a certain extent because you have glove makers who have done phenomenally well.

“It was not a surprise for Malaysia to be the best performing Asean market, which was up 3.6% last year.

*


Malaysia. Belt and Roads. La Cina si avvantaggia della desistenza americana.

«The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is one of the largest in scale infrastructure projects in our history, which was proposed by the PRC as far back as 2013»

«Its main aim is to link via roads, railways, deep water ports, wharfs and industrial zones all 5 continents and approximately 130 of the world’s nations, which, on becoming a part of the BRI could promote trade and other activities and thus reap substantial economic benefits»

«The BRI initiative had such a successful start that by 2020, projects worth almost US$4 trillion had already been completed»

«Still, the ambitious nature and global scale of China’s economic expansion caused reservations among some participating countries with low and medium GDPs. On the one hand, these nations viewed the initiative as the only source of funds for financing their own infrastructure projects, and on the other hand, they worried about their growing debts to Beijing»

«the reaction to BRI in countries of South East Asia whose economic ties to China are strengthening with each passing day is noteworthy»

«It is no secret to anyone that some of the biggest projects of China’s global initiative are being implemented in South East Asian countries. In fact, it would suffice to mention the cross-border railway between China and Laos (US$ 6 billion), high speed rail in Indonesia (US$6 billion), the Kyaukpyu deep water port in Myanmar (US$ 7.3 billion) and many others»

«Malaysia is among China’s most important trade partners in South East Asia with the bilateral trade volume of US$124 billion in 2019»

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Commercio, Devoluzione socialismo

Italia. 2020. Export -9.7%, Import -12.8%, anno 2020 su anno 2019. – Istat.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-02-17.

2021-02-17__ Italia Export 001

«Nel complesso del 2020, l’export registra una contrazione del 9,7%, con riduzioni di pari entità verso entrambi i mercati di sbocco, area Ue ed extra Ue»

«Il calo è dovuto in particolare alla caduta delle esportazioni di macchinari e apparecchi (-12,6%), prodotti petroliferi raffinati (-42,1%) e articoli in pelle, escluso abbigliamento, e simili (-20,8%)»

«L’import è diminuito nel 2020 del 12,8%»

2021-02-17__ Italia Export 002

* * * * * * *

2021-02-17__ Italia Export 003

I macrodati sono eloquenti: Export -9.7%, Import -12.8%, anno 2020 su anno 2019.

I dati riportati per le singole nazioni sarebbero però di grande interesse.

Per quanto riguarda l’export, Cina (18.3%) Polonia (22.5%) e Mercosur (16.3%) sono molto più importanti della Germania (7.7%) e degli Stati Uniti (7.9%).

Per quanto riguarda l’import, invece, Cina ed Asean costituiscono assieme il 30.6% dell’import.

*


Il commento

Nonostante il calo congiunturale a dicembre, la dinamica dell’export nel quarto trimestre è positiva nel confronto con il trimestre precedente. Su base annua, la crescita accelera (+3,3% da +1,1% di novembre). Malgrado il rapido recupero, dopo il crollo di marzo e aprile, il 2020 si chiude con una contrazione complessiva dell’export del 9,7% (il peggior risultato dopo la caduta registrata nel 2009). La contrazione, dovuta per oltre un terzo al calo delle vendite di beni strumentali, è estesa a tutti i principali mercati di sbocco: paesi ASEAN e OPEC, Francia e Regno Unito mostrano le flessioni più marcate; all’opposto, è molto contenuto il calo dell’export verso la Cina. L’import è diminuito nel 2020 del 12,8%. Per i prezzi all’import, il nuovo rialzo congiunturale di dicembre è dovuto alle dinamiche di energia e beni intermedi. Nella media del 2020, i prezzi registrano una marcata flessione (-5,1%), la più ampia dal 2009; al netto dell’energia, la flessione è dell’1,2%.

Istat. Commercio con l’estero e prezzi all’import.

A dicembre 2020 si stima una flessione congiunturale per entrambi i flussi commerciali con l’estero, più intensa per le esportazioni (-3,8%) che per le importazioni (-1,1%). La diminuzione su base mensile dell’export è dovuta al calo delle vendite sia verso i mercati extra Ue (-3,9%) sia verso l’area Ue (-3,7%).

Nell’ultimo trimestre del 2020, rispetto al trimestre precedente, l’export cresce del 3,3%, trainato soprattutto dalle maggiori vendite di beni strumentali e beni intermedi. Nello stesso periodo, l’import aumenta del 4,3%.

A dicembre 2020, l’export registra una crescita tendenziale del 3,3% (da +1,1% di novembre), dovuta all’aumento delle vendite sia verso i mercati extra Ue (+4,1%), sia verso l’area Ue (+2,4%). L’import segna una flessione dell’1,7, determinata soprattutto dal calo degli acquisti dall’area extra Ue (-3,2%).

Tra i settori che contribuiscono maggiormente all’aumento tendenziale dell’export si segnalano metalli di base e prodotti in metallo, esclusi macchine e impianti (+21,8%), mezzi di trasporto, autoveicoli esclusi (+28,5%), prodotti alimentari, bevande e tabacco (+7,8%) e autoveicoli (+11,0%). I maggiori cali riguardano prodotti petroliferi raffinati (-35,6%), articoli in pelle (-11,1%) e articoli di abbigliamento (-9,6%).

Su base annua, i paesi che contribuiscono in misura più ampia all’incremento dell’export sono Germania (+7,7%), Stati Uniti (+7,9%), Regno Unito (+12,5%) e Cina (+18,3%). In diminuzione si segnalano le vendite verso paesi OPEC (-13,1%), Giappone (-9,7%) e Spagna (-2,7%).

Nel complesso del 2020, l’export registra una contrazione del 9,7%, con riduzioni di pari entità verso entrambi i mercati di sbocco, area Ue ed extra Ue. Il calo è dovuto in particolare alla caduta delle esportazioni di macchinari e apparecchi (-12,6%), prodotti petroliferi raffinati (-42,1%) e articoli in pelle, escluso abbigliamento, e simili (-20,8%). Risultano in aumento le vendite di articoli farmaceutici, chimico-medicinali e botanici (+3,8%) e prodotti alimentari, bevande e tabacco (+1,9%).

Nell’ultimo mese del 2020 si stima che il saldo commerciale risulti positivo per 6.844 milioni di euro, con un aumento di 1.780 milioni rispetto a dicembre 2019. Nell’anno 2020 l’avanzo commerciale raggiunge +63.577 milioni (+86.125 milioni al netto dei prodotti energetici). Nel 2019 era stato pari a +56.116 milioni.

Nel mese di dicembre 2020 i prezzi all’importazione aumentano dello 0,7% su base mensile e diminuiscono del 4,4% su base annua.