Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Germania. AKK ammette gli errori dell’Europa e della Merkel.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-22.

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, leader della Cdu tedesca, ha rilasciato una intervista gravida di significati e mezze promesse.

«Gli sviluppi in Italia – uno dei Paesi fondatori della Ue e uno dei Paesi più grandi e più potenti in Europa – ci costringono e costringono la Germania ad essere molto vigili»

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«Anche se alla fine sono i cittadini che decidono»

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«E dobbiamo accettarlo, finché è chiaro che ci sono elezioni democratiche. E su questo non ci sono dubbi, finora»

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«La situazione italiana, vista da fuori, è difficile da comprendere. C’è questa insolita alleanza di governo tra populisti di destra e di sinistra. E siamo preoccupati che l’anti-europeismo stia crescendo, anche sotto forma del sostegno alla Lega»

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«Ci preoccupa poi che potenze come la Russia e la Cina, che non hanno certamente alcun interesse a un’Europa forte e stabile, stiano cercando di aumentare la loro influenza in Italia»

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«la crisi dei profughi del 2015 è nata proprio perché l’Europa non ha funzionato»

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«Dublino non va»

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«Siamo stati a guardare troppo a lungo e con troppa poca attenzione mentre i Paesi ai confini della Ue facevano i conti con numeri crescenti di profughi»

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«Siamo stati a guardare troppo a lungo e con troppa poca attenzione mentre i Paesi ai confini della Ue facevano i conti con numeri crescenti di profughi»

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«Li abbiamo lasciati soli»

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«È uno degli errori che abbiamo fatto nella politica tedesca. Anche nella Cdu»

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«Questa una delle maggiori sfide che il nuovo Parlamento e la nuova Commissione Ue dovranno affrontare»

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Diamo atto, con piacere al fatto che Frau Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer sa affrontare i problemi con Realpolitik e sa anche ammettere gli errori fatti: questo è segno tangibile di intelligenza e di capacità autocritica.

Sicuramente la attuale eurodirigenza in via di uscire di scena ha sottovalutato la situazione dei migranti ed ha cercato di lasciare soli i paesi del meridione dell’Unione.

Di grande importanza anche la dichiarazione che si debbano accettare i risultati delle urne.

La Germania, così come l’Unione Europea, devono imparare ad accettare i partner dell’Unione sia nelle loro tradizioni, sia nei loro governi democraticamente eletti. È una questione di democrazia il rispetto della volontà popolare.

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I principi della dinamica insegnano che ad ogni azione ne corrisponde una eguale a contraria.

Lo sciabordare degli identitari populisti è la reazione alla incapacità decisionale della passata eurodirigenza, alla durezza mentale di Frau Merkel ed alla ottusità di Mr Juncker.

Vedremo nel prosieguo quanto Frau Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer abbia imparato la lezione: lo speriamo ma non ci mettiamo sopra il cuore.


Ansa. 2019-05-20. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Lega ci preoccupa, Germania sarà vigile

Gli sviluppi in Italia – uno dei Paesi fondatori della Ue e uno dei Paesi più grandi e più potenti in Europa – ci costringono e costringono la Germania ad essere molto vigili. Anche se alla fine sono i cittadini che decidono. E dobbiamo accettarlo, finché è chiaro che ci sono elezioni democratiche. E su questo non ci sono dubbi, finora”. Così la leader della Cdu Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, candidata alla successione di Angela Merkel, in un’intervista a Repubblica in cui si dice “preoccupata” dalla Lega. “La situazione italiana, vista da fuori, è difficile da comprendere. C’è questa insolita alleanza di governo tra populisti di destra e di sinistra. E siamo preoccupati che l’anti-europeismo stia crescendo, anche sotto forma del sostegno alla Lega”, afferma Kramp-Karrenbauer.

“Ci preoccupa poi che potenze come la Russia e la Cina, che non hanno certamente alcun interesse a un’Europa forte e stabile, stiano cercando di aumentare la loro influenza in Italia”. Sull’immigrazione, “la crisi dei profughi del 2015 è nata proprio perché l’Europa non ha funzionato. Dublino non va. Siamo stati a guardare troppo a lungo e con troppa poca attenzione mentre i Paesi ai confini della Ue facevano i conti con numeri crescenti di profughi. Li abbiamo lasciati soli. È uno degli errori che abbiamo fatto nella politica tedesca. Anche nella Cdu”, dichiara Kramp-Karrenbauer. “Questa una delle maggiori sfide che il nuovo Parlamento e la nuova Commissione Ue dovranno affrontare”. 

Annunci
Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Germania. Elezioni europee e di Brema potrebbero scatenare il diluvio.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-20.

Giulio Cesare Assassinato 001

«Amo il tradimento, ma odio il traditore» (Giulio Cesare)


La Presidente del partito, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, ha convocato per il due giugno una riunione straordinaria della direzione della Cdu.

Verosimilmente, i convocati dovranno constatare l’ulteriore crollo elettorale del partito nonché una molto severa sconfitta dei loro alleati della Spd sia nelle elezioni europee sia a Brema. Se in Sassonia la Cdu è data in declino dal 39.4% al 28%, a Brema la Spd dovrebbe scendere dal 32.8% al 24.5%. Ed in sede europea, il partito popolare europeo e quello socialista dovrebbero perdere circa un centinaio di seggi.

Germania. Sondaggi. Elezioni in Sachsen, 1° Settembre.

Brema. Domenica prossima si assisterà al crollo della Spd.

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Non si sa quanta quota di elettorato debbano perdere Cdu ed Spd per prendere alla fine atto di quanto stia succedendo.

Al massimo, si ridurranno in breve come il partito Conservatore inglese, che adesso è stimato essere attorno al 9%.

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«Angela Merkel is feeling pressure from her chosen successor to quit as German chancellor after this month’s elections for the European parliament»

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«With Merkel’s Christian Democrats expected to lose ground in the May 26 vote, their leader, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, sent a message to Merkel urging her to resign and called a party conference for June 2 in order to try to force her hand»

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«The presumptive heir to Angela Merkel denied a report on Friday that she had pressured the German chancellor to step down after an election later this month for the European Parliament in which their conservative party is set to lose ground»

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«Merkel’s conservatives and their Social Democrats (SPD) junior coalition partners are expected to bleed support in the European election next week»

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«That would particularly increase the pressure on the SPD to quit the coalition and reinvent itself in opposition, especially because it risks losing control of the northern German state of Bremen where it has ruled for more than seven decades in a vote also on May 26»

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Tra otto giorni avremo alla fine i risultati delle elezioni, tenendo anche conto che oltre i risultati europei incideranno, e molto, quelli a Brema, in Piemonte e nelle amministrative italiane.

Ma molto dei futuri destini europei saranno decisi in Germania, per non dire a Washington.

Non stiamo assistendo solo alla variopinta disgregazione dell’ideologia liberal socialista europea: stanno implodendo tutti i sistemi economici che si reggevano sul parastato da questa colonizzati. E tra questi il così detto ‘Sistema Merkel’ sembrerebbe essere sicuramente il più potente e, quindi, il bersaglio più ambito.

Nessuno si faccia quindi illusioni, ma proprio nessuna: l’uscita di scena di Frau Merkel, se mai avverrà a tempi brevi, non implica in modo automatico il crollo definitivo dei liberal socialisti. La guerra proseguirà, e ci si aspetti colpi di coda.

Austria. Il caso Strache. Di prudenza non è mai morto nessuno.


Bloomberg. 2019-05-18. Merkel Pressured by Her Successor to Resign After EU Election

– June 2 party meeting was to signal beginning of Merkel exit

– AKK proposed Merkel to run for presidency of EU Council

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Angela Merkel is feeling pressure from her chosen successor to quit as German chancellor after this month’s elections for the European parliament, according to two people with knowledge of the situation.

With Merkel’s Christian Democrats expected to lose ground in the May 26 vote, their leader, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, sent a message to Merkel urging her to resign and called a party conference for June 2 in order to try to force her hand, one of the people said. AKK, as Kramp-Karrenbauer is known, did not warn Merkel of the conference and suggested she should run for the presidency of the European leaders council, the person said.

In public, AKK has insisted that Merkel should see out her term, and a spokeswoman for the party leader pointed to those comments when contacted by Bloomberg News.

After becoming CDU leader late last year, AKK has struggled to gain traction in polls and in the party, as nods to the right wing ended up alienating many of her more liberal supporters.

AKK’s attempt to speed up Merkel’s exit may not only fail but also backfire. Despite growing pressure, the chancellor is determined to serve her full term in office until September 2021, said the two people who declined to be named because the talks were in private. Within the party there are growing doubts that AKK would still hold enough sway to run for the country’s top job in two years.

If AKK’s bid to follow Merkel is permanently derailed, the succession in Europe’s largest economy would be thrown wide open, potentially giving the chancellor’s conservative enemies a chance to seize power. AKK’s victory over Friedrich Merz for the party leadership in December was supposed to have ruled out that possibility. 

The scenario that AKK used to try and convince Merkel was this: after a poor result for their party in the EU election, the German leader would run for the presidency of the European Council to help solve Europe’s deep-seated crisis. The pro-European Social Democrats, their junior coalition partner, would be forced to back AKK as the next chancellor, because otherwise they would appear as blocking a solution to the EU crisis, the argument went.

Earlier this week Merkel gave a clear answer. “I’m not available for any political office, wherever it is, and that includes Europe,” Merkel told reporters in Berlin.

The proposed transition was particularly unappetizing to Merkel because it would probably involve a cabinet post for her arch enemy Merz, whom AKK is considering for a possible role in a future cabinet, one of the people said.

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Reuters. 2019-05-18. Merkel’s heir apparent denies pressuring German chancellor to resign

The presumptive heir to Angela Merkel denied a report on Friday that she had pressured the German chancellor to step down after an election later this month for the European Parliament in which their conservative party is set to lose ground.

A spokeswoman for Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, leader of Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU), denied a Bloomberg report, which cited two unnamed people, that Kramp-Karrenbauer had pressured the chancellor to step down after the May 26 vote.

“The report that the chairwoman of the CDU had pressured the chancellor to step down after the European Parliament vote lacks any basis,” the spokeswoman said.

There has been speculation about whether Merkel, now almost 14 years in power, would complete her fourth and last term in office. Both Merkel and AKK, as Kramp-Karrenbauer is known in Germany, have said the chancellor would complete her term, which ends in 2021.

Merkel’s conservatives and their Social Democrats (SPD) junior coalition partners are expected to bleed support in the European election next week.

That would particularly increase the pressure on the SPD to quit the coalition and reinvent itself in opposition, especially because it risks losing control of the northern German state of Bremen where it has ruled for more than seven decades in a vote also on May 26.

It is unlikely Merkel would try to form a new government with other parties if the SPD were to quit the coalition after the vote in Bremen next week. She would most likely leave the stage for Kramp-Karrenbauer, her preferred successor.

Bloomberg quoted one unidentified source as saying that Kramp-Karrenbauer had sent a message to Merkel urging her to resign and called a CDU party conference for June 2 in order to try to force her hand.

But sources in the CDU told Reuters that the two women had jointly selected the date for the CDU conference to discuss spending plans in light of weaker tax intakes as Europe’s largest economy cools.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Germania. AKK convoca summit CDU dopo le elezioni. Merkel se ne andrebbe.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-05-05.

Colonna Traiana. Testa di Decebalo__001

Se lo stato attuale della Germania non sfugge a noi, Frau Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer sembrerebbe esserne ancor meglio conscia.

Germania.Costo del Lavoro. – Destatis.

Germania. Reddito medio 34,987€ a Starnberg e 16,203€ a Gelsenkirchen.

Germania. Destatis. Costruzioni -2.0% a/a.

Germania. Destatis. ‘On an annual basis electricity prices increased by 10.8%’.

Germania. Dati sempre più allarmanti sulla povertà.

Germania. VW fa fagotto e se ne va in Cina.

Germania. Dieci milioni di migranti votano. Ma votano come vogliono.

Germania. La crisi da tedesca sta diventando europea.

Germania. Produzione auto -4.1%, insolvenze +5.7%.

Germania. Sommovimenti di piazza per il caro-affitti.

Germania. Ordini Industria -4.2%, -8.4% a/a.

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«Centre-right CDU leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has ordered party colleagues to the unscheduled meeting as soon as the European elections are over»

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«The conservative daily, which has close connections inside the ruling party, speculated that Kramp-Karrenbauer would use the meeting to announce a significant change in personnel in the German government»

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«This is likely to either mean significant new faces in cabinet or the removal of Merkel as Chancellor.»

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«A poor showing by coalition partners the Social Democrats (SPD) in the European elections could hasten the end of the Merkel era»

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«The result would likely be new elections in which case Merkel has already made clear she would step back from power»

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La defenestrazione di Frau Merkel non avverrà mai troppo presto: è lei l’ostacolo che la Germania ha nel suo tentativo di rimettere in moto il sistema politico, sociale ed economico della nazione.

Se alla fine si andasse ad elezioni anticipate, ne uscirebbe una Cdu ridimensionata  in cerca di alleati per formare una coalizione governativa.


The Local. 2019-05-01. AKK calls unscheduled CDU summit, stoking talk of imminent Merkel exit

Centre-right CDU leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has ordered party colleagues to the unscheduled meeting as soon as the European elections are over, Die Welt reported on Monday.

The conservative daily, which has close connections inside the ruling party, speculated that Kramp-Karrenbauer would use the meeting to announce a significant change in personnel in the German government. This is likely to either mean significant new faces in cabinet or the removal of Merkel as Chancellor.

The last time the party called such an extraordinary meeting was in the autumn of last year when Merkel announced she was stepping down as party leader in the wake of shambolic state election results in Hesse and Bavaria. Kramp-Karrenbauer, commonly referred to as AKK, won a tight contest to take over the party leadership in December.

Ever since AKK took over as party leader rumours have circulated in the German press as to when and under what circumstances Merkel will give way to the woman who has taken her place at the top of the centre-right party.

A poor showing by coalition partners the Social Democrats (SPD) in the European elections could hasten the end of the Merkel era. The SPD are currently polling at around 15 percent, a catastrophic result by their standards, which could compel them to pull out of the coalition in Berlin.

The result would likely be new elections in which case Merkel has already made clear she would step back from power.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Senza categoria, Unione Europea

Merkel. La fronda vorrebbe farla fuori.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2019-04-24.

2019-04-25__Luigi di Borbone, principe di Condé

Luigi di Borbone, principe di Condé. Versailles.


Ogni potere assoluto, de iure o de facto, genera di per sé stesso movimenti avversi dei quali la fronda fu a giusto titolo uno dei più famosi, anche se alla fine le sue ambizioni si infransero nella Battaglia delle Dune.

Sotto il regime di Frau Merkel la Germania è stata gestita con mano di ferro e Weltanschauung liberal.

Se nel 2011 il pil tedesco era 3,761 miliardi Usd, a fine 2018 valeva 4,000 miliardi Usd: praticamente invariato, mentre quello americano e cinese era cresciuto notevolmente.

Ma non è solo l’economia entrata in stagnazione a caratterizzare la Germania attuale. La crisi è politica, ed anche profonda. Nelle elezioni del 24 settembre 2017 i partiti tradizionali, Cdu ed Spd hanno subito una débâcle clamorosa. Il quadro partito è andato parcellizzandosi, l’Spd ha regolarmente perso le successive tornate elettorali nei Länder, tenendo così buona compagnia alla Cdu in rotta.

L’Asse francogermanico si è rotto, e l’essersi appiattita sulle posizioni di Mr Juncker ha accentuato l’isolamento internazionale tedesco, già in rotta di collisione con gli Stati Uniti di Mr Trump.

Ad ora il sistema economico tedesco si è inceppato, le grandi industrie stanno delocalizzando rapidamente e povertà e miseria stanno crescendo a vista d’occhio. La mission di Frau Merkel potrebbe dirsi quasi completata.

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Frau Merkel ci ricorda Hitler chiuso nel suo bunker a resistere fino a quando non ha sentito i cigolio dei carri armati russi. Poi si è suicidato, ma ha lascito una ben triste eredità alla Germania.

Frau Merkel è troppo superba ed orgogliosa per ammettere il suo fallimento e dimettersi.

Ma, come diceva Caifa profetando, “la morte di uno può salvare un popolo“.

«Angela Merkel says she wants to remain in office until her term is up»

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«But behind the scenes, plans are already being hatched for Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer to take over the chancellorship»

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«After 14 years in power, Angela Merkel is slowly but surely on her way out»

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«Media reports in the country have speculated that Merkel’s departure may be imminent»

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«While she [AKK] does not appear to have radical changes in mind, she holds more conservative positions than Merkel on matters such as immigration, gay marriage and integration within the European Union»

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«Her rise has been welcomed by more conservative factions within the CDU, including from Friedrich Merz, who launched an unsuccessful, albeit close, bid to lead the party last fall. Once rivals, Kramp-Karrenbauer and Merz are now working side by side. And they seems to be on good terms»

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«Officially, Merkel wants to remain in power until her tenure is up in 2021. But behind the scenes, all kinds of scenarios are being considered to help Kramp-Karrenbauer take the chancellery»

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Tra un mese si terranno le elezioni europee, ed entro l’anno si voterà in quattro Länder. critici, ove si prevedono bagni di sangue sia per la Cdu sia per l’Spd.

Quando a dicembre si terrà il congresso della Cdu si potrebbe arrivare alla resa dei conti. I tedeschi chiudono sempre le stalle quando sono scappati buoi, vacche, vitelli e stallieri.

Chi odiasse visceralmente ed a morte la Germania, farà certamente auspici che Frau Merkel continua a governarla. ma con Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer saranno soddisfatti non solo gli odiatori ma anche solo gli scontenti.

Al peggio non c’è mai limite.


Deutsche Welle. 2019-04-23. How long will Angela Merkel’s chancellorship last?

Angela Merkel says she wants to remain in office until her term is up. But behind the scenes, plans are already being hatched for Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer to take over the chancellorship.

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After 14 years in power, Angela Merkel is slowly but surely on her way out. She has already stood down as the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has taken over as head of the conservative party, and it is an open secret that Merkel would love to see her become the next German chancellor, too. But how and when could this happen? Media reports in the country have speculated that Merkel’s departure may be imminent. Indeed, she has almost entirely abstained from campaigning for the CDU ahead of the European Parliament elections.

Merkel, a scientist by training, appears to have made a rational decision to not interfere Kramp-Karrenbauer’s political affairs. She wants to give her space to lay out her own agenda and gain a following.

More conservative than Merkel

Kramp-Karrenbauer, popularly known in Germany as AKK, has her own set of policy goals and is keen to reorient the CDU. While she does not appear to have radical changes in mind, she holds more conservative positions than Merkel on matters such as immigration, gay marriage and integration within the European Union.

Her rise has been welcomed by more conservative factions within the CDU, including from Friedrich Merz, who launched an unsuccessful, albeit close, bid to lead the party last fall. Once rivals, Kramp-Karrenbauer and Merz are now working side by side. And they seems to be on good terms.

Kramp-Karrenbauer has been campaigning for the European Parliament elections with Merz, who has been forthright about the fact that he would like to become a minister in a potential Kramp-Karrenbauer government.

Social Democrats reject AKK

Officially, Merkel wants to remain in power until her tenure is up in 2021. But behind the scenes, all kinds of scenarios are being considered to help Kramp-Karrenbauer take the chancellery. Traditionally in Germany, sitting chancellors remain in power until their term is up, and parliament — the Bundestag — decides who takes the post next.

The country’s current grand coalition government — made up of the CDU, their Bavarian sister party, the CSU, and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) — still commands a parliamentary majority. Yet the SPD has already announced it won’t back Kramp-Karrenbauer as Merkel’s successor. They want to prevent Merkel stepping down prematurely and being replaced by Kramp-Karrenbauer, who could benefit tremendously from taking the chancellorship ahead of the 2021 general elections.

No future for grand coalition

This refusal to endorse Kramp-Karrenbauer has put the coalition itself at risk and could necessitate snap elections. That’s a scenario the SPD, which has for over a year seen its approval ratings hover near the 17% mark, 3 points fewer than at the last election, would surely like to avoid. But polls indicate that the CDU, too, would most likely have to contend with similar losses in an early election. Germany’s two biggest parties thus potentially lack the seats needed to form yet another grand coalition.

Kramp-Karrenbauer could instead try to forge an alliance with the business-friendly Free Democrats (FDP) and the Greens, something Germany nearly saw after the 2017 general election. The three parties spent two weeks negotiating a future coalition government until the FDP pulled out of talks. But now, two years later, it may be the Greens who are hesitant to team up with the CDU. The environmentalist party’s approval ratings are rising, with the latest polls indicating it could win as much as 20% of the vote. The Greens will thus likely be eager for fresh elections.

Final verdict in December

It may in fact be the Social Democrats who determine how much longer Merkel stays in power. After all, the coalition agreement states that all parties involved will evaluate their government once half the term is up, then decide whether to keep going or disband. The SPD is set to make its judgment at a party conference in December.

What the SPD opts to do will in part depend on how a series of key votes this year play out. In addition to the European Parliament vote on 26 May, Bremen is holding state elections the same day. Moreover, nine states hold district assembly, municipal and district council elections on that day, as well. On September 1, the states of Brandenburg and Saxony hold parliamentary elections, and Thuringia follows suit on October 27.

AKK in 2020?

Should the SPD struggle in these elections, it will embolden the vast number of party members who opposed joining the CDU in the first place. And if this camp gains enough support, they could vote to pull out of the grand coalition, putting the SPD into opposition. That, in turn, would put an end to Merkel’s chancellorship. She could make an attempt to revive coalition talks with the Greens and FDP, though it is unlikely this would bear fruit.

Kramp-Karrenbauer could potentially find herself moving into Merkel’s office by 2020.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Germania. Nessuno si stupisca se la Cdu si spezzasse in due.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-12-14.

2018-12-11__Germania_Insa__001

«The high of her narrow victory won’t last long»


Alle elezioni del 24 settembre 2017 la Union (Cdu e Csu aveva ottenuto il 32.9% dei voti, la Sps il 20.5%,AfD il 12.6% ed i Grüne il 9.2%.

Ad oggi, Union al 29%, Spd al 15%, AfD al 15%, Grüne al 17%.

«Kramp-Karrenbauer, often referred to as AKK, won with only 52 percent of the vote»

Già. Frau Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer ha ottenuto soltanto 517 voti su 999 votanti.


Se è vero che in democrazia basta un voto di maggioranza per governare, sarebbe altrettanto vero ricordare come con una maggioranza così risicata sia facilissimo incorrere in un qualche incidente di percorso.

A ciò si aggiunga un fatto non da poco.

Akk altro non è che la longa manu di Frau Merkel, alla quale deve carriera e posizione: in pratica Akk non potrebbe fare altro che amministrare il Sistema Merkel che ha strettamente in mano l’apparto del partito e del sottogoverno.

La posizione contraria, che sembrerebbe riconoscersi in Herr Merz, ha semplicemente idee opposte e contrarie a tutte quelle di Frau Merkel.

Akk per ora almeno non ha evidenziato quelle doti di adeguatezza politica necessarie per gestire una simile situazione: al momento è solo la fotocopia di Frau Merkel, dalla quale ha ereditato tutte le asperità. Diciamo che sembrerebbe non essere un Bismarck. Frau Akk è come Frau Merkel, irrigidita nel paraocchi della ideologia: esattamente l’opposto del concetto di mutuazione politica. Le rigidità si spezzano, Mr Macron docet.

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In simili situazioni aleggia un pericolo di non poca importanza: che la Cdu si divida in due partiti.

«At the party conference in Hamburg, … many had hoped for a decisive change from what they saw as a leftward swing during the Merkel era, AKK’s victory was far from universally celebrated»

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«Whoever thinks of a rematch or even revenge now is wrong,” Schaeuble said. “That’s not how democracy works»

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«But it also showed, for the first time in the center-right party’s history, that it was split down the middle»

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«It could easily be two parties rather than one: a law-and-order, identitarian, pro-big business, right-wing political force to rival the nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) — and a compassionate, egalitarian, moderate party that is Christian in more than its name. Only the second of these parties backs AKK.»

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«Kramp-Karrenbauer is trying to deal with it. Almost her first move as party leader was to nominate Paul Ziemiak, leader of the CDU youth organization, for her old position of party secretary general. Ziemiak, a critic of Merkel’s immigration policy, hadn’t supported AKK’s bid. He would have preferred Merz (he comes from the same regional party organization) or the third candidate, Health Minister Jens Spahn, who is popular among young Christian Democrats»

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«An influential poll taken after the leadership election showed the CDU gaining three percentage points compared with its pre-conference support. AKK’s election pleased not just 62 percent of CDU supporters but also 61 percent of Green voters and 55 percent of the Social Democratic Party (SPD).»

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«Auch bei den CDU-Anhängern überwiegen diejenigen, die Kramp-Karrenbauers Wahl begrüßen. 62 Prozent halten sie für eine gute Lösung, auch 61 Prozent der Grünen-Anhänger und 55 Prozent der SPD-Anhänger sind dieser Meinung. Lediglich bei den FDP- und vor allem den AfD-Anhängern hätten mehr lieber Merz als Kramp-Karrenbauer an der Spitze der CDU gesehen.» [Fonte]

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2018-12-11__Germania_Insa__002

Cerchiamo di trarre le conclusioni. Si faccia attenzione.

Se è dato sicuro il livello cui un partito è proiettsto, altrettanto sicuro è il trend in cui è inserito. Un 20% sarebbe buon segno in un trend in crescita, cattivo segno in un trend decrescente.

Con l’Spd passata dal 32% del marzo 2017 all’attuale 15% la Große Koalition è politicamente morta: il Governo sta in piedi grazie ad una maggioranza che prima esisteva ed ora non esiste più.

Le elezioni europee del maggio prossimo saranno determinanti per decidere se la Cdu si frantumi o meno.

Certo, dopo le elezioni tutti i partiti si affineranno a dire che hanno vinto.

Ma se Frau Merkel e Frau Akk non riuscissero a far tornare la Cdu almeno a quel 40% che aveva nel maggio 2017 avrebbero fallito i loro obiettivi ed il partito sarebbe costretto ad spaccarsi in due.

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Da ultimo, ma non certo per ultimo, segnaliamo la presenza del Convitato di Pietra.

Trump patrocina l’Alleanza mondiale dei partiti Sovranisti.

Mr Macron ha avuto modo di sperimentare sulla sua propria carne cosa voglia dire questa iniziativa americana:ma siamo solo agli inizi.


Bloomberg. 2018-12-11. No Victory Lap for Merkel’s Successor

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer is taking over a deeply divided party and facing a tough waiting period before she can try to lead Germany.

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Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer’s election as the leader of Germany’s biggest party, the Christian Democratic Union, looks like a happy story: Chancellor Angela Merkel’s chosen successor isn’t likely to negate her legacy, and the CDU is up in the polls. Reality, however, is more complicated.

Kramp-Karrenbauer, often referred to as AKK, won with only 52 percent of the vote to 48 percent for Friedrich Merz, the strongly pro-business, relatively hardline candidate who attempted to make a political comeback after Merkel chased him out of top-level politics a decade ago. At the party conference in Hamburg, where men outnumbered women two to one and many had hoped for a decisive change from what they saw as a leftward swing during the Merkel era, AKK’s victory was far from universally celebrated, though Merz looked at ease as he graciously congratulated her.

Wolfgang Schaeuble, speaker of the German parliament and the party’s doyen, had openly backed Merz; on Monday, he thought it necessary to tell people in his camp not to rock the boat. “Whoever thinks of a rematch or even revenge now is wrong,” Schaeuble said. “That’s not how democracy works.”

The hotly, though courteously, contested leadership election showed, refreshingly, that the CDU was still capable of sparkling internal debate after almost two decades of Merkel’s stifling ascendancy. But it also showed, for the first time in the center-right party’s history, that it was split down the middle. It could easily be two parties rather than one: a law-and-order, identitarian, pro-big business, right-wing political force to rival the nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) — and a compassionate, egalitarian, moderate party that is Christian in more than its name. Only the second of these parties backs AKK.

It’s inevitable that a big-tent party should include different factions, and the CDU has always had them, but the current ideological split almost makes it look like the U.S. Republicans — an uneasy coalition of nativists, libertarians and pro-business moderates. 

Kramp-Karrenbauer is trying to deal with it. Almost her first move as party leader was to nominate Paul Ziemiak, leader of the CDU youth organization, for her old position of party secretary general. Ziemiak, a critic of Merkel’s immigration policy, hadn’t supported AKK’s bid. He would have preferred Merz (he comes from the same regional party organization) or the third candidate, Health Minister Jens Spahn, who is popular among young Christian Democrats. Zemiak was elected by about 60 percent of the delegates, an unusually low support level that reflects how deeply the CDU is divided. “My goal is to unite the party, to bring it together,” AKK said in an interview published on Monday. “That’s why I’m happy he’s working with me.”

But the healing process may be complicated. It would work better if Merz took part, but he refused to join the party leadership and didn’t even stay until the end of the conference. His plans are unclear; it’s been rumored that he might be offered a ministerial post, but given that Merkel, his old nemesis, still runs the government, a return to business is more likely for him. AKK said in the interview that she’d set up a meeting with Merz to discuss how he might be make himself useful to the party.

AKK’s other problem is that she must spend more than two years working in Merkel’s shadow, waiting for her to vacate the chancellor’s job — either that or stab her mentor in the back. 

For now, political momentum is on AKK’s side. An influential poll taken after the leadership election showed the CDU gaining three percentage points compared with its pre-conference support. AKK’s election pleased not just 62 percent of CDU supporters but also 61 percent of Green voters and 55 percent of the Social Democratic Party (SPD). This would augur well for a future Chancellor Kramp-Karrenbauer: She’d be welcomed by the CDU’s current governing coalition partners, the SPD, and after a new election, she’d likely be able to build a coalition with the Greens, now Germany’s second-strongest party.

But the poll has the CDU at just 32 percent, still close to historic lows, and two more years of Merkel’s government, which has been uninspired recently, might do AKK’s ambitions no favors. On the other hand, Merkel has stressed that she’d like to serve out her term, and if she’s unwilling to go, trying to get rid of her wouldn’t reflect well on AKK, either.

The potential two years of AKK’s purgatory include next year’s European Parliament election. Because of its relative unimportance to German domestic affairs, the protest vote may be strong, and if the CDU doesn’t do well, AKK’s leadership will be in doubt.

It might be best for AKK and the party if an early election were held simultaneously with the European one; that, however, would require Merkel’s active cooperation and the dissolution of the current coalition, which Merkel spent a lot of energy building and keeping together.

German politics are suddenly more exciting than they’ve been for a long time. That, however, means a lot of pitfalls for AKK to avoid. The high of her narrow victory won’t last long.