Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Asiatica

Cambogia. 2021. Pil anno su anno stimato al 7.1%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-08.

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La Cambogia è un paese misero, che però aveva raddoppiato il proprio pil nel volgere di dieci anni.

La crisi pandemica ha di fatto bloccato il turismo e gran parte delle attività industriali ed agricole.

Adesso si iniziano a vedere i primi segni di una ripresa.

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«Cambodia’s economy is forecast to grow 4 percent in 2021 and 5.5 percent in 2022»

«ADB [Asian Development Bank] said the Southeast Asian nation’s economy contracted by 3.1 percent in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic»

«industrial production is expected to rise 7.1 percent in 2021 and 7 percent in 2022»

«Agriculture is expected to grow by 1.3 percent in 2021»

«Services will recover more slowly, expanding by 3.3 percent in 2021 and 6.2 percent in 2022»

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ADB says Cambodia’s economy to rebound by 4 pct in 2021, higher next year.

Phnom Penh, April 29 (Xinhua) — Cambodia’s economy is forecast to grow 4 percent in 2021 and 5.5 percent in 2022, as the economic recovery in its major trading partners boosts demand for the kingdom’s exports, an Asian Development Bank (ADB) report has said.

ADB country director for Cambodia Sunniya Durrani-Jamal said the Southeast Asian nation’s economy contracted by 3.1 percent in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The government has responded quickly to the recent spike in cases, and we expect the economy to return to growth in 2021,” she said in a press statement on Wednesday.

“This will help increase household incomes, but not all sectors and regions will benefit equally, so it will be essential to closely monitor household welfare and the need for additional support,” she added.

According to the bank’s report, industrial production is expected to rise 7.1 percent in 2021 and 7 percent in 2022 on the back of a rebound in the garments, footwear, and travel goods sector, as well as growth in other light manufacturing such as electronics and bicycles.

Agriculture is expected to grow by 1.3 percent in 2021 and 1.2 percent in 2022, underpinned by higher crop production after last year’s flood damage, continued growth in aquaculture, and rising agriculture exports to China, it said.

Services will recover more slowly, expanding by 3.3 percent in 2021 and 6.2 percent in 2022, the report said, adding that efforts to contain a local outbreak of COVID-19 that began on Feb. 20 are dampening service sector activities.

Travel restrictions are expected to remain in place for most of 2021, which means tourism is not expected to boost services this year, it said. Real estate is expected to recover from last year’s contraction, in line with a similar trend for the construction industry.

“The uneven pace of the recovery across sectors will continue to put pressure on some households and firms this year, which will slow down the overall recovery,” Durrani-Jamal said.

“Key risks to the outlook include widening community outbreaks of COVID-19, slower than expected growth for Cambodia’s major trading partners such as the United States and EU, continued weakness in domestic demand, and stress on financial services and banking,” she added. Enditem

Pubblicato in: Cina, Geopolitica Mondiale

Cook Islands. Si staccano dall’occidente ed accettano fondi dalla Aiib. La conquista dello Oceano Pacifico.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-02-19.

Cook Islands 001


Dovrebbe essere sufficiente dare una occhiata rapida alla carta geografica per comprendere l’importanza strategica delle Cook Islands, o Cook Islands Māori come amano farsi denominare.

Formalmente legate alla Nuova Zelanda, alla cui cittadinanza hanno diritto, sono una nazione nei triboli.  L’occidente le tratta da paria, principalmente perché

«Male homosexuality is illegal in the Cook Islands and is punishable by a maximum term of seven years imprisonment»

Ma la Cina ha tutto l’interesse di rendersele amiche, dapprima con vincoli economici, quindi politici, ed infine militari.

Per i cinesi sarebbero uno dei posti ideali dove poter allestire una loro propria base navale, nell’aperto Oceano Pacifico.

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«Pacific island nations are turning to the China-backed AIIB development bank to plug funding gaps in their pandemic-ravaged budgets after exhausting financing options from traditional western partners, stoking fears the region is becoming more dependent on Beijing»

«The Cook Islands, a tiny country of around 20,000 people in the South Pacific, turned to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) late last year after a loan from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and a grant from close ally New Zealand fell short»

«The US$20 million loan to the Cook Islands was the AIIB’s second to a strained Pacific economy in the last few months, after Fiji secured a US$50 million facility, signalling its arrival in the Pacific region»

«The multi-lateral lender said the loans to Fiji and Cook Islands were co-finance»

«The objective is to minimise the pandemic’s uncertain socio-economic impact on AIIB members given their heavy dependence on the international tourism market»

«in January that it had accepted a US$12 million grant from the Chinese government»

«China’s growing reach in the region is unsettling for the United States and its allies, who have been the dominant powers in the Pacific since World War Two»

«Despite being small, Pacific states boast strategic ports and air strips and control vast swathes of resource-rich ocean»

«China is very willing to lend money to any Pacific island nation. As much as Australia and New Zealand have encouraged the islands to look to them first it’s been a lot easier getting money out of China»

«More than 100 countries are members of the multi-lateral bank, with the noteable exceptions of the United States and Japan»

«One of the most remote outposts of World War Two, Cook Islands has a free association agreement with New Zealand and shared citizenship, though it is its own country»

«Almost one-third of Cook Islands’ NZ$215 million ($153.2 million) external debt now lies with Beijing-linked bodies, AIIB and China’s Exim Bank, up from 16% before the pandemic»

«Cook Islands expects to require additional borrowings of NZ$71.2 million ($50.74 million) over the next three years to cover shortfalls»

«If the AIIB becomes the primary lender to the Pacific and the region’s economic recovery is driven by Chinese lending, then certainly there will be cause for significant concern that economic dependence could be exploited»

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Anche se a dirlo si potrebbe essere linciati, l’occidente ha negato o lesinato fondi alle Cook Islands a causa delle loro posizioni sulla omosessualità.

I cinesi hanno colto al volo questa opportunità: come di abitudine hanno rispettato la sovranità nazionale ed hanno elargito sostanziosi finanziamenti.

Se sicuramente potrebbe servire ancora molto tempo, una volta che le Cook Islands le fossero intimamente connesse, la Cina avrebbe preso posizione nel bel mezzo dell’Oceano Pacifico, avendo investito cifre ridicolmente basse.

Questo è un altro aspetto delle devoluzione dell’occidente liberal.

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Pacific island nations turn to Beijing-backed AIIB as pandemic sinks economies.

Pacific island nations are turning to the China-backed AIIB development bank to plug funding gaps in their pandemic-ravaged budgets after exhausting financing options from traditional western partners, stoking fears the region is becoming more dependent on Beijing.

The Cook Islands, a tiny country of around 20,000 people in the South Pacific, turned to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) late last year after a loan from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and a grant from close ally New Zealand fell short, two sources with knowledge of the talks said.

The US$20 million loan to the Cook Islands was the AIIB’s second to a strained Pacific economy in the last few months, after Fiji secured a US$50 million facility, signalling its arrival in the Pacific region.

The multi-lateral lender said the loans to Fiji and Cook Islands were co-financed with the U.S. and Japanese-led ADB.

“The objective is to minimise the pandemic’s uncertain socio-economic impact on AIIB members given their heavy dependence on the international tourism market,” it said.

Vanuatu, with a population of 300,000, also announced in January that it had accepted a US$12 million grant from the Chinese government.

While most Pacific island countries have used their natural borders to combat COVID-19 infections, they have faced economic hardship given their reliance on international tourism, a sector that abruptly shut as the pandemic struck.

China’s growing reach in the region is unsettling for the United States and its allies, who have been the dominant powers in the Pacific since World War Two.

Despite being small, Pacific states boast strategic ports and air strips and control vast swathes of resource-rich ocean. They also represent a vote in some international forums.

“China is very willing to lend money to any Pacific island nation. As much as Australia and New Zealand have encouraged the islands to look to them first it’s been a lot easier getting money out of China,” said Fletcher Melvin, president of Cook Islands’ Chamber of Commerce.

The Cook Islands became an AIIB member last year. More than 100 countries are members of the multi-lateral bank, with the noteable exceptions of the United States and Japan. China, which proposed the idea of setting up the AIIB, is the biggest stakeholder.

The lender, which began operations in 2016, is often closely linked to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The AIIB says while there is an overlap in mandates of the bank and the BRI to benefit the region, the BRI is not part of its project decisions.

FUNDING GAP

One of the most remote outposts of World War Two, Cook Islands has a free association agreement with New Zealand and shared citizenship, though it is its own country.

Almost one-third of Cook Islands’ NZ$215 million ($153.2 million) external debt now lies with Beijing-linked bodies, AIIB and China’s Exim Bank, up from 16% before the pandemic.

Cook Islands expects to require additional borrowings of NZ$71.2 million ($50.74 million) over the next three years to cover shortfalls, budget documents show.

Jon Fraenkel, professor in comparative politics at Victoria University of Wellington, said Fiji, which has one of the biggest Pacific economies, was desperate for foreign funds after it entered the pandemic in a weak financial position.

The Cook Islands has previously defended its economic ties to China, which has funded several projects, including a water supply system. Its government did not respond to requests from Reuters for comment.

The ADB said in a statement to Reuters that late last year it provided an additional US$20 million loan, which under its internal rules took its lending to the “country limit” for the small island nation.

The New Zealand government said it provided a NZ$22 million ($16 million) grant through its aid programme. It does not provide loans to governments.

That left a funding gap, two sources with knowledge of the talks told Reuters. The AIIB collaborated with the ADB to contribute a US$20 million loan to create the financing package.

“If the AIIB becomes the primary lender to the Pacific and the region’s economic recovery is driven by Chinese lending, then certainly there will be cause for significant concern that economic dependence could be exploited,” said Anna Powles, senior lecturer in the Centre for Defence and Security Studies at Massey University based in Wellington