Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
2022-08-07.
Queste sono le più aggiornate previsioni elettorali per midterm.
Tag: 270toWin
Midterm. Democratici in lieve vantaggio nei sondaggi generici, parità negli altri.
Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
2022-01-11.
«Republicans have lost their lead on the generic congressional ballot ahead of November’s midterm elections»
«The survey shows Democrats narrowly leading Republicans on the generic ballot, 39 percent to 37 percent»
«However, according to the latest poll’s findings, Republicans are necessarily not hemorrhaging support to Democrats — rather more Republicans said they were undecided»
«Undecided voters ticked up 16 percent to 24 percent from November to January»
«The poll also showed dismal approval ratings for President Biden, a bad sign for down-ballot Democrats going into this year»
«Biden’s approval rating only increased 2 points, from 38 percent to 40 percent, between November and January»
«Additionally, 62 percent of respondents said he isn’t a strong leader»
«numerous other polls show Republicans leading»
«the nonpartisan Cook Political Report released ratings showing House Republicans with a clear advantage in the battle for the lower chamber»
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Al contrario, le previsioni fatte per il Congresso dal 270toWin, calcolate stato per stato, danno il risultato proposto nella mappetta.
135 seggi sicuri per i democratici e 134 seggi sicuri per i repubblicani. I seggi indecidibili sono 14, e saranno questi a decidere a quale partito tocchi la maggioranza.
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Republicans lose edge on generic congressional ballot: poll.
Republicans have lost their lead on the generic congressional ballot ahead of November’s midterm elections, according to a new USA Today-Suffolk University poll released on Tuesday.
The survey shows Democrats narrowly leading Republicans on the generic ballot, 39 percent to 37 percent, marking a major shift from the GOP’s previous 8-point lead in a November USA Today-Suffolk University poll. The Democrats’ lead falls with the poll’s 3.1 percentage margin of error.
However, according to the latest poll’s findings, Republicans are necessarily not hemorrhaging support to Democrats — rather more Republicans said they were undecided. Undecided voters ticked up 16 percent to 24 percent from November to January.
The poll also showed dismal approval ratings for President Biden, a bad sign for down-ballot Democrats going into this year. Biden’s approval rating only increased 2 points, from 38 percent to 40 percent, between November and January. Additionally, 62 percent of respondents said he isn’t a strong leader.
The findings come as the midterm campaign season starts to kick off in earnest with the new year. Republicans have the historical advantage, given that the minority party usually gains seats in the midterms during a sitting president’s first term. On top of that, numerous other polls show Republicans leading.
Last week, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report released ratings showing House Republicans with a clear advantage in the battle for the lower chamber. The ratings show Democrats defending eight “toss-up” districts across seven states. Republicans, on the other hand, are defending six toss-up seats in four states at this point.
The USA Today-Suffolk University poll was conducted Dec. 27-30 among 1,000 registered voters. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
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