Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti

USA. 2021Q1. Pil ufficiale +6.4%. Detratte sovvenzioni ed inflazione circa zero. – BEA.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-25.

2021-06-25__ usa Pil 001

Si faccia la massima attenzione!

«Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2021, reflecting the continued economic recovery, reopening of establishments, and continued government response related to the COVID-19 pandemic»

«The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending»

«The increase in PCE reflected increases in durable goods (led by motor vehicles and parts), nondurable goods (led by food and beverages), and services (led by food services and accommodations). …. The increase in federal government spending primarily reflected an increase in payments made to banks for processing and administering the Paycheck Protection Program loan applications»

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Cosa sta succedendo?

Il Bureau of Economic Analysis, ossia l’ente governativo che calcola e rilascia il pil ed il pec americano include nel pil tutte le sovvenzioni erogate dallo stato federale, dai singoli stati e dai governi locali. Una cifra immane generata ricorrendo al debito coperto dalla Fed con denaro fiat, che è stata trattata alla stregua di ricchezza generata dalla produzione nazionale, ossia dal lavoro.

Detratte dal calcolo le sovvenzioni assistenziali, il pil sarebbe circa eguale al 4%.

Ma il Pce, personal consumption expenditures, ossia l’indice di inflazione prediletto dalla Fed, è schizzato in questo trimestre proprio al 4%. In altri termini, l’inflazione si fagocita il valore degli aumenti del pil. Si da con una mano e si toglie con l’altra.

Ciò non desta sorprese.

Nel suo Report Personal Income and Outlays, April 2021 il Bureau of Economic Analysis  stesso riportava che il Disposable personal income era -14.6%. Una diminuzione delle entrate dei cittadini del -14.6% sembrerebbe essere non compatibile con un aumento del prodotto interno lordo.

Si noti anche come, sempre il Bureau of Economic Analysis aveva stimato il PCI al 5%:

Consumer prices increase 5.0 percent for the year ended May 2021

«The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 5.0 percent from May 2020 to May 2021. Prices for food advanced 2.2 percent, while prices for energy increased 28.5 percent»

Ma con un aumento del 28.5% dell’energia, come fa l’inflazione ad essere solo il 4%?

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Bureau of Economic Analysis. Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised), 1st Quarter 2021.

«Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2021, reflecting the continued economic recovery, reopening of establishments, and continued government response related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The increase was the same rate as the “second” estimate released in May. In the first quarter, government assistance payments, such as direct economic impact payments, expanded unemployment benefits, and Paycheck Protection Program loans were distributed to households and businesses through the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act and the American Rescue Plan Act. In the fourth quarter of 2020, real GDP increased 4.3 percent.»

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Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 6.4 percent in the first quarter of 2021 (table 1), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 4.3 percent.

The “third” estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 6.4 percent. Upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and exports were offset by an upward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP (see “Updates to GDP”).

→→ The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by decreases in private inventory investment and exports. Imports increased. ←←

The increase in PCE reflected increases in durable goods (led by motor vehicles and parts), nondurable goods (led by food and beverages), and services (led by food services and accommodations). The increase in nonresidential fixed investment reflected increases in equipment (led by information processing equipment) and intellectual property products (led by software). The increase in federal government spending primarily reflected an increase in payments made to banks for processing and administering the Paycheck Protection Program loan applications as well as purchases of COVID-19 vaccines for distribution to the public. The decrease in private inventory investment primarily reflected a decrease in retail trade inventories (mainly by motor vehicles and parts dealers).

Current dollar GDP increased 11.0 percent at an annual rate, or $566.8 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $22.06 trillion. In the fourth quarter, GDP increased 6.3 percent, or $324.4 billion (table 1 and table 3). More information on the source data that underlie the estimates is available in the Key Source Data and Assumptions file on BEA’s website.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 4.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 3.7 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent.

Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 7.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 19.4 percent in the fourth quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 7.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 11.6 percent in the fourth quarter (table 1).

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $55.2 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $31.4 billion in the fourth quarter (table 10).

Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $6.4 billion in the first quarter, in contrast to an increase of $17.5 billion in the fourth quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $72.1 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $48.2 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $10.6 billion, compared with a decrease of $0.7 billion. In the first quarter, receipts increased $34.2 billion, and payments increased $44.8 billion.

Updates to GDP

In the third estimate, the change in first-quarter real GDP was the same as in the second estimate. Upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, exports, and PCE were offset by an upward revision to imports. For more information, see the Technical Note. For information on updates to GDP, see the “Additional Information” section that follows.

Real GDP by Industry

Today’s release includes estimates of GDP by industry, or value added—a measure of an industry’s contribution to GDP. In the first quarter, private goods-producing industries increased 5.4 percent, private services-producing industries increased 7.7 percent, and government increased 0.2 percent (table 12). Overall, 17 of 22 industry groups contributed to the first-quarter increase in real GDP.

The increase in private goods-producing industries primarily reflected an increase in durable goods manufacturing (led by computer and electronic products, fabricated metal products, and machinery). The increase was partly offset by decreases in nondurable goods manufacturing (led by petroleum and coal products) and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting (led by farms).

The increase in private services-producing industries primarily reflected increases in professional, scientific, and technical services; information (led by data processing, internet publishing, and other information services); administrative and waste management services (led by administrative and support services); real estate and rental and leasing; and retail trade. These increases were partly offset by decreases in other services (which includes activities of political organizations); healthcare and social assistance (led by ambulatory health care services); and utilities.

The increase in government reflected increases in federal as well as state and local.

Gross Output by Industry

Real gross output—principally a measure of an industry’s sales or receipts, which includes sales to final users in the economy (GDP) and sales to other industries (intermediate inputs)—increased 8.9 percent in the first quarter (table 16). Private goods-producing industries decreased 1.7 percent, private services-producing industries increased 13.4 percent, and government increased 6.0 percent. Overall, 17 of 22 industry groups contributed to the increase in real gross output, led by retail trade, finance and insurance, and information. A decrease in nondurable goods manufacturing was the most notable offset to these increases.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Spagna. 2021Q1. Pil -4.2%. La Commissione Europea aveva previsto +6.8%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-25.

2021-06-25__ Spagna Pil 001

Instituto Nacional de Estadística. (Ine). Indice de precios de consumo. IPC. Mayo 2021

El Índice de precios de consumo (IPC) es una medida estadística de la evolución de los precios de los bienes y servicios que consume la población residente en viviendas familiares en España.

La tasa de variación anual del IPC del mes de mayo se sitúa en el 2,7%, cinco décimas por encima de la registrada en abril.

Parcelas con más del 50% de sus precios estimados

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2021-06-25__ Spagna Pil 002

Instituto Nacional de Estadística. (Ine). Contabilidad nacional trimestral de España. CNTR. Primer trimestre 2021

El PIB español registra una variación del -0,4% en el primer trimestre de 2021 respecto al trimestre anterior en términos de volumen. Esta tasa es cuatro décimas inferior a la registrada en el cuarto trimestre y una décima superior a la avanzada el pasado mes de abril. Variación anual -4.2%

PIB pm Oferta (Precios corrientes)

Renta nacional bruta y disponible

PIB pm Demanda (Precios corrientes)

PIB pm Oferta (Indices de volumen encadenado)

Empleo por ramas de actividad

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– El PIB español registra una variación del −0,4% en el primer trimestre de 2021 respecto al trimestre anterior en términos de volumen. Esta tasa es cuatro décimas inferior a la registrada en el cuarto trimestre y una décima superior a la avanzada el pasado mes de abril.

–  La variación interanual del PIB se sitúa en el −4,2%, frente al −8,9% del trimestre precedente.

– La contribución de la demanda nacional al crecimiento interanual del PIB es de −2,2 puntos, 4,0 puntos superior a la del cuarto trimestre. Por su parte, la demanda externa presenta una aportación de −2,0 puntos, siete décimas superior a la del trimestre pasado.

– El deflactor implícito del PIB aumenta un 1,3% respecto al mismo trimestre de 2020, cinco décimas más que en el trimestre pasado.

– El empleo de la economía, en términos de horas trabajadas, se reduce un 2,0% respecto al trimestre anterior. Los puestos de trabajo equivalentes a tiempo completo crecen un 1,4%, lo que supone dos décimas más que en el cuarto trimestre, debido a la reducción que se observa en la jornadas medias a tiempo completo (−3,4%).

– En términos interanuales, las horas trabajadas varían un −3,6%, tasa 2,5 puntos superior a la del cuarto trimestre de 2020, y los puestos equivalentes a tiempo completo un −1,9%, 3,3 puntos más que en el cuarto trimestre, lo que supone un descenso de 343 mil puestos de trabajo equivalentes a tiempo completo en un año.

– La variación interanual del coste laboral unitario se sitúa este trimestre en el 2,6%.

– La renta nacional bruta y la renta nacional disponible bruta decrecen un 0,6% y un 0,1%, respectivamente, respecto al trimestre anterior.

– En relación al primer trimestre de 2020, la renta nacional, al igual que la renta nacional disponible, varía un −3,0%.

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La Commissione Europea nel suo Report Economic forecast for Spain aveva previsto un Pil +6.8 e l’inflazione al +1.4%.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Italia. 2021Q1. Occupati -889,000 rispetto al 2020Q1, -3.9%. Istat.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-15.

2021-06-12__ Istat Lavoro 000

Attenzione!!

Dal 1° gennaio 2021, in Italia e in tutti i Paesi dell’Unione Europea, la Rilevazione sulle forze di lavoro ha recepito le indicazioni del Regolamento (UE) 2019/1700 del Parlamento europeo e del Consiglio che stabilisce nuovi e più vincolanti requisiti allo scopo di migliorare l’armonizzazione delle statistiche prodotte. La nuova rilevazione recepisce, in particolare, la modifica dei criteri di identificazione degli occupati.

Il testo delle modificazioni è riportato in calce, ex pdf dell’Istat.

2021-06-12__ Istat Lavoro 001

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2021-06-12__ Istat Lavoro 002

In sintesi.

– nel primo trimestre 2021 il numero di occupati diminuisce di 243 mila unità (-1,1%) rispetto al trimestre precedente

– la diminuzione dell’occupazione (-889 mila unità, -3,9% rispetto al primo trimestre 2020)

– Il numero di disoccupati torna ad aumentare (+240 mila, 10,0% rispetto al primo trimestre 2020

2021-06-12__ Istat Lavoro 003

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Istat ha rilasciato il Report Il mercato del lavoro

Nel primo trimestre 2021, l’input di lavoro, misurato dalle ore lavorate, registra una diminuzione di -0,2% rispetto al trimestre precedente e di -0,1% rispetto al primo trimestre 2020; il Pil è aumentato dello 0,1 in termini congiunturali e diminuito dello 0,8 in termini tendenziali.

Dal lato dell’offerta di lavoro, nel primo trimestre 2021 il numero di occupati diminuisce di 243 mila unità (-1,1%) rispetto al trimestre precedente, a seguito del calo dei dipendenti a tempo indeterminato (-1,1%) e degli indipendenti (-2,0%) non compensato dalla lieve crescita dei dipendenti a termine (+0,6%). Contestualmente, si registra un aumento del numero di disoccupati (+103 mila) e degli inattivi di 15-64 anni (+98 mila). I dati mensili provvisori di aprile 2021 – al netto della stagionalità – segnalano il proseguimento della crescita dell’occupazione (+20 mila, +0,1% in un mese) registrata nei due mesi precedenti (dopo il forte calo di gennaio), che si associa all’aumento del numero di disoccupati (+88 mila, +3,4%) e al calo degli inattivi di 15-64 anni (-138 mila, -1,0%).

Nel confronto tendenziale, la diminuzione dell’occupazione (-889 mila unità, -3,9% rispetto al primo trimestre 2020) coinvolge i dipendenti (-576 mila, -3,2%), soprattutto se a termine, e gli indipendenti (-313 mila, -6,0); il calo interessa sia gli occupati a tempo pieno sia quelli a tempo parziale (-3,8% e -4,2%, rispettivamente). Il numero di disoccupati torna ad aumentare (+240 mila, 10,0% rispetto al primo trimestre 2020) – tra chi ha già avuto esperienze di lavoro – e prosegue, seppur a ritmi meno intensi rispetto ai tre trimestri precedenti, la crescita degli inattivi tra i 15 e i 64 anni (+501 mila, +3,7% in un anno).

Il tasso di occupazione 15-64 anni, pari al 56,6%, diminuisce in termini congiunturali e tendenziali (-0,6 e -2,2 punti, rispettivamente); quelli di disoccupazione e di inattività 15-64 anni aumentano. I dati provvisori del mese di aprile segnalano l’aumento congiunturale del tasso di occupazione (+0,1 punti in un mese) e di disoccupazione (+0,3 punti) e il calo di quello di inattività (-0,3 punti).

Dal lato delle imprese, il proseguimento delle misure di restrizione dell’attività economica nel primo trimestre 2021 determina una crescita congiunturale di lieve entità per le posizioni lavorative dipendenti (+0,2%) e una variazione tendenziale ancora negativa (-0,8%), seppure di minor entità rispetto al trimestre precedente. Tali effetti derivano da una crescita della componente a tempo pieno in termini congiunturali (+1%), ma anche su base annua (+0,4%), a cui si contrappone una riduzione della componente a tempo parziale del – 1,7% su base trimestrale e del -3,7% su base annua. Rispetto al trimestre precedente, le ore lavorate per dipendente crescono dell’1%; anche su base tendenziale si osserva un aumento, sebbene più contenuto (+0,4%), associato a quello del ricorso alla cassa integrazione che raggiunge le 108,4 ore ogni mille ore lavorate. Il tasso dei posti vacanti aumenta di 0,1 punti percentuali su base congiunturale e di 0,8 su base annua. Il costo del lavoro, per unità di lavoro, cresce dello 0,9% in termini congiunturali, per effetto di un aumento sia delle retribuzioni (+0,5%) sia degli oneri sociali (2%). In termini tendenziali, il costo del lavoro continua a salire (+0,8%), a seguito dell’aumento dell’1,6% della componente retributiva e nonostante la riduzione dell’1,2% degli oneri; quest’ultimo calo è riconducibile all’adozione delle misure di esonero contributivo varate nella seconda metà dell’anno 2020 che, seppure con minore intensità rispetto al quarto trimestre 2020, continuano ad avere effetto anche nel primo trimestre 2021.

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L’impatto del cambiamento definitorio sulle stime dell’occupazione.

Dal 1° gennaio 2021, in Italia e in tutti i Paesi dell’Unione Europea, la Rilevazione sulle forze di lavoro ha recepito le indicazioni del Regolamento (UE) 2019/1700 del Parlamento europeo e del Consiglio che stabilisce nuovi e più vincolanti requisiti allo scopo di migliorare l’armonizzazione delle statistiche prodotte. La nuova rilevazione recepisce, in particolare, la modifica dei criteri di identificazione degli occupati.1

Nella precedente rilevazione erano classificati come occupati anche i dipendenti assenti per più di tre mesi che mantenevano almeno il 50% della retribuzione e gli indipendenti assenti dal lavoro nel caso di attività momentaneamente sospesa.

Nella nuova definizione il lavoratore assente dal lavoro per più di tre mesi viene considerato non occupato, a prescindere dalla retribuzione se dipendente o dalla sospensione dell’attività se indipendente, a meno che non si tratti di:

– assenza per alcune cause specifiche: maternità, malattia, part time verticale, formazione pagata dal datore di lavoro, congedo parentale se retribuito;

– lavoratore stagionale che nel periodo di chiusura dichiara di svolgere attività relative al mantenimento, al rinnovo o alla prosecuzione dell’attività lavorativa, ad esempio per la manutenzione degli impianti (sono esclusi gli obblighi legali o amministrativi e le attività relative al pagamento delle tasse).

Le differenze tra la vecchia e la nuova definizione riguardano tre principali casi:

  1. a) i lavoratori in Cassa integrazione guadagni (Cig) non sono considerati occupati se l’assenza supera i 3 mesi, anche se percepiscono almeno il 50% della retribuzione;
  2. b) i lavoratori autonomi non sono considerati occupati se l’assenza supera i 3 mesi, anche se l’attività è solo momentaneamente sospesa;
  3. c) i lavoratori in congedo parentale sono classificati come occupati, anche se l’assenza supera i 3 mesi e la retribuzione è inferiore al 50%.

In sintesi, la durata complessiva dell’assenza dal lavoro (più o meno di 3 mesi) diviene il criterio prevalente per definire la condizione di occupato.

Non cambiano, invece, le definizioni di disoccupato e inattivo; differenze nella stima di tali aggregati possono tuttavia riscontrarsi come conseguenza del cambiamento di quella degli occupati. A seguito delle modifiche ora accennate, le nuove stime non sono direttamente comparabili con quelle precedentemente diffuse. ….

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Europa. 2021Q1. Pil eurozona -5.1%, EU -4.6, comparati sul 2019Q4. – Eurostat.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-09.

2021-06-09__ eUROSTAT gDP 001

Ricordandosi bene di quando Stalin spedì in Siberia tutto il personale dell’Ufficio di Statistica, anche quello di Eurostat riporta pudicamente nei titoli i dati QoQ.

Poi, in fondo, riporta le tabelle dei dati comparati sul primo trimestre 2020 e sul quarto trimestre 2019, ultimo rilevamento prima della crisi del Covid.

La differenza è stridente, ma ben più aderente ala realtà dei fatti.

2021-06-09__ eUROSTAT gDP 002

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In sintesi.

– GDP volumes were 5.1% and 4.6% below their highest level of the fourth quarter 2019 for the euro area and EU

– household final consumption expenditure decreased by 2.3% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU

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Eurostat ha rilasciato il Report 2021 GDP down by 0.3% and employment down by 0.3% in the euro area.

                         GDP growth in the euro area and the EU.

In the first quarter of 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.1% in the EU compared with the previous quarter, according to an estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. These declines follow falls in the fourth quarter of 2020 (-0.6% in the euro area and -0.4% in the EU) after a strong rebound in the third quarter of 2020 (+12.6% in the euro area and +11.7% in the EU). Before, the sharpest decreases since the time series started in 1995 were observed in the second quarter of 2020 (-11.5% in the euro area and -11.1% in the EU).

During the first quarter of 2021, GDP in the United States increased by 1.6% compared with the previous quarter (after +1.1% in the fourth quarter of 2020). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP increased by 0.4% (after -2.4% in the previous quarter).

                         GDP growth by Member State.

Ireland (+7.8%) and Croatia (+5.8%) recorded the sharpest increases of GDP compared to the previous quarter, followed by Estonia (+4.8%) and Greece (+4.4%). The strongest declines were observed in Portugal (-3.3%) and Slovakia (-2.0%), followed by Germany (-1.8%) and Latvia (-1.7%).

                         GDP components and contributions to growth.

During the first quarter of 2021, household final consumption expenditure decreased by 2.3% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU (after -2.9% in the euro area and -2.7% in the EU in the previous quarter). Gross fixed capital formation increased by 0.2% in the euro area and by 0.8% in the EU (after +2.5% and +2.0% respectively). Exports increased by 1.0% in the euro area and by 1.1% the EU (after +3.8% and +4.0%). Imports increased by 0.9% in the euro area and by 1.1% in the EU (after +4.5% and +4.4%).

Household final consumption expenditure had negative contribution to GDP growth in both the euro area and the EU (-1.2 and -1.0 percentage points – pp, respectively) while the contributions from gross fixed capital formation (+0.1 in the euro area and +0.2 in the EU) and changes in inventories (+0.7% in the euro area and +0.6 in the EU) were positive. The contribution from the external balance was slightly positive for the euro area and neutral for the EU, while the contributions from government final expenditure were neutral in both zones.

                         GDP levels in the euro area and EU.

Based on seasonally adjusted figures, GDP volumes were 5.1% and 4.6% below their highest level of the fourth quarter 2019 for the euro area and EU, which corresponds to the level of the fourth quarter 2016 for the euro area and is slightly above the level of the first quarter 2017 for the EU. For the United States, GDP was 0.9% below the level of the fourth quarter 2019 but recovered to its previous level of the second quarter 2019.

                         Employment growth in the euro area and EU.

The number of employed persons decreased by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU in the first quarter of 2021, compared with the previous quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2020, employment had increased by 0.4% in both the euro area and the EU.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment decreased by 1.8% in the euro area and by 1.6% in the EU in the first quarter of 2021, after -1.8% and -1.5% respectively in the fourth quarter of 2020.

                         Employment growth in Member States.

In the first quarter of 2021, Hungary (+1.1%), Spain (+1.0%), Cyprus and Lithuania (both +0.8%) recorded the highest growth of employment in persons compared with the previous quarter. The largest decreases were observed in Latvia (-3.9%), Greece (-1.7%) and Slovakia (-1.1%). At this stage, data for Ireland and Romania are not included in the graph, due to a delayed publication in Ireland and series break observed in the first quarter 2021 in Romania.

                         Employment levels in the euro area and EU.

Based on seasonally adjusted figures, Eurostat estimates that in the first quarter of 2021, 205.6 million people were employed in the EU, of which 157.6 million were in the euro area.

In relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, employment in persons was 3.4 million in the euro area and 3.8 million in the EU below the level of the fourth quarter of 2019.

                         Evolution of labour productivity in the euro area and EU.

The combination of GDP and employment data allows an estimation of labour productivity. The analysis of growth compared to the same quarter of the previous year shows that productivity growth (based on employed persons) fluctuated around 1% for both zones between 2013 and 2018.

In relation to the COVID-19 pandemic, productivity based on persons increased compared to the same quarter of the previous year with 0.6% for the euro area and 0.4% for the EU.

Based on hours worked, productivity compared to the same quarter of the previous year increased by 2.0% for the euro area and to 1.1% for the EU.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo

Italia. 2021Q1. Pil -0.8% confrontato su 2020Q1.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-01

2021-06-01_ Istat Pil 002

L’Istat ha rilasciato il Report Conti economici trimestrali.

Nel primo trimestre del 2021 il prodotto interno lordo (Pil), espresso in valori concatenati con anno di riferimento 2015, corretto per gli effetti di calendario e destagionalizzato, è aumentato dello 0,1% rispetto al trimestre precedente ed è diminuito dello 0,8% nei confronti del primo trimestre del 2020.

Le stime odierne presentano una revisione al rialzo rispetto a quelle diffuse il 30 aprile scorso, quando la variazione congiunturale del Pil era stata del -0,4% e quella tendenziale del -1,4%.

Il primo trimestre del 2021 ha avuto due giornate lavorative in meno del trimestre precedente e una giornata lavorativa in meno rispetto al primo trimestre del 2020.

La variazione acquisita per il 2021 è pari a +2,6%.

Rispetto al trimestre precedente, i consumi finali nazionali hanno registrato una diminuzione dell’1%, mentre gli investimenti fissi lordi sono cresciuti del 3,7%. Le importazioni sono aumentate del 2,3% e le esportazioni sono scese dello 0,1%.

La domanda nazionale al netto delle scorte ha sottratto 0,1 punti percentuali alla crescita del Pil: -0,7 i consumi delle famiglie e delle Istituzioni Sociali Private (ISP), -0,1 la spesa delle Amministrazioni Pubbliche (AP), +0,7 gli investimenti. La variazione delle scorte ha contributo positivamente per 0,8 punti percentuali, mentre il contributo della domanda estera netta è stato negativo per 0,6 punti percentuali.

Si registrano crescite congiunturali del valore aggiunto di agricoltura e industria pari, rispettivamente, al 3,9% e all’1,8%, mentre i servizi registrano un calo dello 0,4%.

2021-06-01_ Istat Pil 003

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                         Il commento.

Nel primo trimestre del 2021 l’economia italiana ha segnato, dopo la contrazione dell’ultima parte del 2020, un lievissimo recupero, con una crescita congiunturale del Pil dello 0,1%. Il calo tendenziale si riduce sensibilmente, dal 6,5% del trimestre precedente a 0,8%. Nella stima preliminare era stato rilevato un calo congiunturale dello 0,4% e tendenziale dell’1,4%.

Il moderato recupero dell’attività produttiva è sintesi di un aumento del valore aggiunto dell’agricoltura e dell’industria e di una contrazione del terziario che in alcuni comparti ha risentito ancora degli effetti delle misure di contrasto dell’emergenza sanitaria.

Il quadro della domanda è caratterizzato da una spinta della componente interna, alimentata dal recupero degli investimenti e dal nuovo contributo positivo delle scorte, mentre un contributo negativo è venuto dall’estero per la crescita delle importazioni a fronte di una sostanziale stazionarietà delle esportazioni.

Le ore lavorate sono diminuite dello 0,2% in termini congiunturali, mentre i redditi pro capite sono aumentati dell’1,5%.

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                         L’andamento del pil negli altri paesi.

Nel primo trimestre del 2021, il Pil è aumentato in termini congiunturali dell’1,6% negli Stati Uniti ed è diminuito dello 0,1% in Francia e dell’1,8% in Germania. In termini tendenziali, si è registrata una crescita dello 0,4% negli Stati Uniti e dell’1,2% in Francia e una diminuzione del 3,1% in Germania. Nel complesso, il Pil dei paesi dell’area Euro è diminuito dello 0,6% rispetto al trimestre precedente e dell’1,8% nel confronto con il primo trimestre del 2020.

                         Il pil e le componenti della domanda.

Dal lato della domanda, le esportazioni di beni e servizi sono diminuite in termini congiunturali dello 0,1% e i consumi finali nazionali dell’1%, mentre gli investimenti fissi lordi sono cresciuti del 3,7% e le importazioni del 2,3%. Nell’ambito dei consumi finali, la spesa delle famiglie residenti e delle ISP è diminuita dell’1,2% e quella delle AP dello 0,2%.

L’aumento degli investimenti ha riguardato tutte le componenti: la spesa per impianti, macchinari e armamenti è cresciuta del 3,5% (di cui la componente di mezzi di trasporto del 4,4%), quella delle abitazioni e dei fabbricati non residenziali e altre opere, rispettivamente, del 4,8% e del 5,2% e la componente dei prodotti di proprietà intellettuale dello 0,4%. Gli investimenti in risorse biologiche coltivate sono risultati stazionari.

La spesa delle famiglie sul territorio economico ha registrato una diminuzione in termini congiunturali dell’1,8% (si veda la tabella 13 allegata). In particolare, gli acquisti di beni durevoli sono diminuiti dello 0,9%, quelli di servizi del 4,2%, quelli dei beni semidurevoli del 3,6%, mentre quelli di beni non durevoli sono cresciuti dell’1,9%.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali

Svizzera. 2021Q1. Pil -0.5% anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-06-02.

2021-06-02__ Svizzera pil 001

Lo State Secretariat for Economic Affaris ha rilasciato i dati relativi al pil svizzero del primo trimestre, annualizzato.

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(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor Plus) Roma, 1 giu – Il Pil della Svizzera e’ diminuito dello 0,5% nel primo trimestre del 2021, dopo un aumento dello 0,1% nei tre mesi precedenti, risentendo della contrazione delle spese al consumo durante il secondo semi-lockdown deciso dalla Confederazione per contenere il Covid-19. Lo ha reso noto il ministero dell’Economia. La ristorazione e gli alberghi sono stati i settori piu’ colpiti, con una contrazione dell’attivita’ del 30,4%. La ripresa nell’industria, che ha segnato una crescita del 4,9% ha, per contro, evitato che la flessione del Pil fosse piu’ marcata.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Economia e Produzione Industriale

Germania. 2021Q1. Pil -5.0% rispetto al 2019Q4. Consumi -9.1%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-26.

2021-05-26__ Germania Pil 001

In sintesi.

-1.8% on the previous quarter (price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted)

-3.4% on the same quarter a year earlier (price-adjusted)

-3.1% on the same quarter a year earlier (price- and calendar-adjusted)

– Compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, the quarter before the corona crisis began, GDP was 5.0% lower

– The largest decreases (-13.9%) were recorded for other services

– Household final consumption expenditure, which was down a price-adjusted 9.1% on the first quarter of 2020

– Household final consumption expenditure fell by 5.4% on the fourth quarter of 2020

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I macrodati tedeschi indicano uno stato di recessione e di una profonda crisi.

New orders in main construction industry in March 2021: -12.1% seasonally adjusted on the previous month.

Germania. Feb21. Import elettronica. Da Cina un terzo, da Asia oltre la metà. – Zvei.

Germania. Gen21 e Feb21. Export totale -4.5%, anno su anno. – Destatis.

Exports in February 2021: +0.9% on January 2021. Exports are 2.1% below the pre-crisis level of February 2020.

Germania. Febbraio 21. Produzione Industriale -6.4% anno su anno. – Destatis.

Germania. Febbraio. Vendite al Dettaglio -9.0% Feb21 su Feb20. – Destatis.

La crisi di leadership che mina il futuro della Germania.

Germania. Merkel. Après nous, le déluge. – Spiegel International.

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Più ancora del pil in calo del 5%, rende preoccupati la contrazione del -9.1% dei consumi.

L’attuale crisi politica, con parcellizzazione delle forze politiche, lascia fitte nubi sui risultati delle elezioni federali di settembre. Ma senza un governo stabile sarà ben difficile risalire la china.

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Destatis. Gross domestic product: detailed results on the economic performance in the 1st quarter of 2021. Economic performance 5.0% below pre-crisis level.

                         Pressrelease #244 from 25 May 2021

                         Gross domestic product, 1st quarter of 2021

-1.8% on the previous quarter (price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted)

-3.4% on the same quarter a year earlier (price-adjusted)

-3.1% on the same quarter a year earlier (price- and calendar-adjusted)

Wiesbaden – The gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 1.8% in the first quarter of 2021 on the fourth quarter of 2020 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. After the German economy had somewhat recovered in the second half of 2020 (+8.7% in the third quarter and +0.5% in the fourth quarter), the coronavirus crisis caused another decline in economic performance at the beginning of 2021. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that the decrease was slightly larger than reported in the first release of 30 April 2021. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, the quarter before the corona crisis began, GDP was 5.0% lower.

                         Household final consumption expenditure markedly down, increase in imports larger than in exports

The continuing, and in part intensified, restrictions imposed to contain the coronavirus pandemic had a particularly marked impact on household final consumption expenditure at the beginning of the year. In the first quarter of 2021, household final consumption expenditure fell by 5.4% on the fourth quarter of 2020 after adjustment for price, seasonal and calendar variations. Government final consumption expenditure was slightly higher than in the previous quarter (+0.2%). Positive contributions came especially from gross fixed capital formation in construction in the first quarter of 2021 as it rose 1.1% on the fourth quarter of 2020 after price, seasonal and calendar adjustment. Seasonally adjusted gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment was slightly down on the previous quarter (-0.2%).
Foreign trade increased at the beginning of the year. However, the increase in imports of goods and services in the first quarter of 2021 (+3.8%, price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted) was markedly larger than the increase in exports (+1.8%).

                         Gross value added fell considerably in trade and construction

In the first quarter of 2021, the price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted gross value added decreased by 0.8% on the fourth quarter of 2020. Diverging trends were shown for the individual economic sectors. Gross value added in manufacturing was slightly up on the fourth quarter of 2020 (+0.4%), whereas gross value added in trade, transport, accommodation and food services was down (-3.2%). The decrease in construction was even larger (-4.9%), one of the reasons being the unusually cold weather at the beginning of the year.

                         Gross domestic product still markedly down on a year earlier

GDP in the first quarter of 2021 was down a price-adjusted 3.4% compared with the first quarter of 2020. After price and calendar adjustment, the decrease was slightly smaller (-3.1%) as there was one working day less than a year earlier.

                         Household final consumption expenditure fell sharply also on a year earlier, trade in goods increased

Domestic demand continued to be far lower than a year earlier. This applies especially to household final consumption expenditure, which was down a price-adjusted 9.1% on the first quarter of 2020. Gross fixed capital formation did not contribute to year-on-year growth either. Fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment decreased by 0.7% and in construction by 1.6% on a year earlier. Only government final consumption expenditure (+2.5%) and foreign demand had an upward effect when compared with a year earlier.

Foreign trade rose considerably on the first quarter of 2020, with exports of goods increasing slightly more than imports of goods. At the same time, foreign trade in services saw two-digit decreases, as was the case in the previous three quarters. On the whole, exports of goods and services fell by 0.6% (price-adjusted) in the first quarter of 2021 on the first quarter of 2020. Total imports declined by 3.0% in the same period.

                         In nearly all economic sectors, economic performance was down on a year earlier

On the production side of the GDP, price-adjusted gross value added was lower in almost all economic sectors in the first quarter of 2021 compared with a year earlier. The largest decreases (-13.9%) were recorded for other services, which include entertainment and recreation. In trade, transport, accommodation and food services, gross value added fell sharply, too (-8.2%). Especially accommodation and food services recorded an even larger decrease. Following the two-digit slump last summer, the economic situation in manufacturing continued to improve; nevertheless, gross value added in the first quarter of 2021 was still by 1.2% below the level of the first quarter of 2020. Information and communication is the only sector that saw noticeable economic growth on a year earlier (+0.7%).

Total gross value added was down 3.5%.

                         Number of persons in employment still markedly below pre-crisis level

The economic performance in the first quarter of 2021 was achieved by roughly 44.4 million persons in employment whose place of employment was in Germany. This was a decrease of 707,000, or 1.6%, on a year earlier (see press release 230/21 of 18 May 2021). It must be noted, however, that short-time work does not affect the employment figures because short-time workers still count as persons in employment.

However, short-time work had a substantial effect on the average number of hours worked per person in employment. The latter decreased by 4.0% in the first quarter of 2021 compared with the first quarter of 2020, according to first provisional calculations of the Institute for Employment Research of the Federal Employment Agency. The labour volume of the overall economy, which is the total number of hours worked by all persons in employment, went down even more (-5.5%) over the same period.

Overall labour productivity (price-adjusted GDP per hour worked by persons in employment) rose by 2.3% on the same quarter of the previous year, according to provisional calculations. However, labour productivity per person in employment was down 1.9% compared with the first quarter of 2020.

                         Stable incomes and consumer reticence lead to increase of savings ratio

At current prices, both the GDP and the gross national income were down 1.1% in the first quarter of 2021 compared with a year earlier. Net national income at factor costs was up 0.9% on the first quarter of 2020. While the compensation of employees was slightly down (-0.4%), property and entrepreneurial income was up 4.0% according to first provisional calculations. Gross wages and salaries per employee recorded a slight increase on average (+0.2%), while average net salaries rose 1.0% because of decreasing social contributions paid by employees. The disposable income of households was by 1.1% higher in the first quarter of 2021 than a year earlier. Household final consumption expenditure at current prices, however, showed a decrease of 7.3%. As in the previous three quarters, the relatively stable incomes, on the one hand, and consumer reticence, on the other, resulted in a substantial rise in household saving during the corona crisis. According to provisional calculations, the savings ratio was 23.2% in the first quarter of 2021.

                         International and European comparison

Trends were diverging within Europe. In the first quarter of 2021, the price-, seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP declined for example in Spain (-0.5%) and Italy (-0.4%) on the fourth quarter of 2020, while a slight increase was seen in France (+0.4%). According to provisional calculations, the Statistical Office of the European Union (Eurostat) reported a GDP decline of 0.4% on the previous quarter for the European Union (EU) as a whole, which was markedly smaller than for Germany (-1.8%). The United States recorded a substantial increase in their gross domestic product (+1.6%, converted figure) at the beginning of the year, compared with the fourth quarter of 2020.
When compared with a year earlier, too, an increase in GDP (+0.4%, converted figure) was reported for the United States. The French economy recorded a considerable increase on the first quarter of 2020 (+1.5%), whereas most EU Member States reported marked decreases. Spain recorded the largest year-on-year decline (-4.3%) of all the Member States which have data available as yet for the first quarter of 2021. In Italy, the decline (-1.4%) was smaller than in Germany (-3.1%). For the whole EU, Eurostat released a preliminary result of -1.7% on the same quarter of the previous year.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Devoluzione socialismo, Unione Europea

Unione Europea. 2021Q1. Pil -0.6%, Occupati -0.3% QoQ, -1.8% and -2.1% YoY. – Eurostat.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-19.

2021-05-19__ Eurostat 001

«La ripresa è in atto di fede»

In sintesi.

– In the first quarter of 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU, compared with the previous quarter

– In the first quarter of 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 1.8% in the euro area and by 1.7% in the EU, compared with the same quarter of the previous year

– Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment decreased by 2.1% in the euro area and by 1.8% in the EU in the first quarter of 2021

2021-05-19__ Eurostat 002

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Solo per comparazione, Giappone -5.1%, Cina +18.3%, Hong Kong +7.8%, Singapore +2.0%, South Korea +1.8%, Turkia +5.9%.

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Eurostat ha rilasciato il seguente Report

GDP and employment flash estimates for the first quarter of 2021. GDP down by 0.6% and employment down by 0.3% in the euro area. In the EU, GDP down by 0.4% and employment down by 0.3%.

                         GDP growth in the euro area and EU.

In the first quarter of 2021, seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU, compared with the previous quarter, according to a flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. These declines follow falls in the fourth quarter of 2020 (-0.7% in the euro area and -0.5% in the EU) after a strong rebound in the third quarter of 2020 (+12.5% in the euro area and +11.7% in the EU) and the sharpest decreases since the time series started in 1995 observed in the second quarter of 2020 (-11.6% in the euro area and -11.2% in the EU).

During the first quarter of 2021, GDP in the United States increased by 1.6% compared with the previous quarter (after +1.1% in the fourth quarter of 2020). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP increased by 0.4% (after -2.4% in the previous quarter).

                         Employment growth in the euro area and EU.

The number of employed persons decreased by 0.3% in both the euro area and in the EU in the first quarter of 2021, compared with the previous quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2020, employment had increased by 0.4% in both the euro area and the EU.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment decreased by 2.1% in the euro area and by 1.8% in the EU in the first quarter of 2021, after -1.9% and -1.6% respectively in the fourth quarter of 2020.

These data provide a picture of labour input consistent with the output and income measure of national accounts.

Pubblicato in: Cina

Cina. 2021Q1. Export +32.3%, Import +43.1%, anno su anno.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2021-05-09.

2021-05-08__ Cina Import Export 001

Il National Bureau of Statistics of China ha rilasciato il Report National Economy Made a Good Start in the First Quarter.

«6. Imports and Exports of Goods Witnessed Noticeable Momentum of Growth and Trade Structure Continued to Optimize.

In the first quarter, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 8,468.7 billion yuan, an increase of 29.2 percent over that of the previous year. The total value of exports was 4,614.0 billion yuan, up by 38.7 percent year on year; that of imports was 3,854.7 billion yuan, up by 19.3 percent year on year. The trade balance was 759.3 billion yuan in surplus. In March, the total value of imports and exports of goods was 3,022.8 billion yuan, up by 24.0 percent year on year. The total value of exports was 1,555.4 billion yuan, up by 20.7 percent year on year; that of imports was 1,467.4 billion yuan, up by 27.7 percent year on year. The trade structure continued to optimize. In the first quarter, the imports and exports of general trade accounted for 61.2 percent of the total value of the imports and exports, 1.3 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year. The imports and exports by private enterprises accounted for 46.7 percent of the total value of the imports and exports, 4.4 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year»

2021-05-08__ Cina Import Export 002