Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti, Trump

Usa. Trump nominerebbe la Judge Amy Coney Barrett alla Corte Suprema. – Bloomberg

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-09-26.

Suprema Corte

«Barrett would be third justice to be appointed by Trump»

«Announcement on nomination set for Saturday at White House»

«President Donald Trump has told associates he’ll nominate Judge Amy Coney Barrett to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court, according to people familiar with the matter»

«If confirmed by the Senate, Barrett, 48, would become the third justice appointed to the nine-member high court by Trump»

«An Indiana-based federal appeals court judge, Barrett is known to be a devout Catholic with fervent anti-abortion views»

«The plan has angered Democrats»

«McConnell says his precedent shouldn’t apply when the same party controls both the Senate and White House»

«There’s little Democrats can do to delay a vote on Barrett, an acolyte and former clerk for the late Justice Antonin Scalia, who was once the high court’s conservative standard-bearer»

«And her appointment, which could solidify the court’s rightward shift for a generation, will undoubtedly play a dominant role in the final weeks of the presidential election»

* * * * * * *


«There’s little Democrats can do»

Se, come potrebbe sembrare essere verosimile, il Senato approvasse la nomina del Judge Amy Coney Barrett alla Suprema Corte, la maggioranza repubblicana si consoliderebbe sia per il rapporto di sei contro tre, sia per il fatto che la giudice è cattolica e «fervent anti-abortion».

Avendo 48 anni, Judge Amy Coney Barrett potrebbe restare in carica per almeno trenta anni consecutivi.

È facile comprendere la sorda rabbia dei liberal democratici.

*


Trump Plans to Name Barrett to Replace Ginsburg on High Court.

– Barrett would be third justice to be appointed by Trump

– Announcement on nomination set for Saturday at White House

*

President Donald Trump has told associates he’ll nominate Judge Amy Coney Barrett to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the Supreme Court, according to people familiar with the matter, a move that could cement conservative control of the judiciary just weeks before Election Day.

If confirmed by the Senate, Barrett, 48, would become the third justice appointed to the nine-member high court by Trump. An Indiana-based federal appeals court judge, Barrett is known to be a devout Catholic with fervent anti-abortion views.

Trump plans to announce Barrett’s nomination at a White House ceremony on Saturday, though he could yet change his mind, the people cautioned. A bitter clash will follow in the Senate, where Republicans have vowed to use their majority to rapidly push through a confirmation vote before the Nov. 3 election.

The people familiar with Trump’s decision asked not to be identified because he hasn’t announced it himself.

The plan has angered Democrats, who have called Republicans hypocrites. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to consider Barack Obama’s nomination to fill a vacant seat in the 2016 election year, saying voters first deserved the chance to select the next president.

McConnell says his precedent shouldn’t apply when the same party controls both the Senate and White House.

There’s little Democrats can do to delay a vote on Barrett, an acolyte and former clerk for the late Justice Antonin Scalia, who was once the high court’s conservative standard-bearer. And her appointment, which could solidify the court’s rightward shift for a generation, will undoubtedly play a dominant role in the final weeks of the presidential election.

Democratic candidate Joe Biden has said the winner of the presidential contest should fill Ginsburg’s seat.

Meanwhile, the White House has been preparing for the nomination fight. Officials are leaning against assigning a so-called “sherpa” for Barrett’s nomination — often a former senator who shepherds the nominee through the confirmation process, including private meetings with senators.

Having managed two successful nominations already, senior White House officials feel they’re experienced enough that a sherpa won’t be necessary, according to two people familiar with internal deliberations.

Aides believe White House Counsel Pat Cipollone can lean on Senate relationships built during Trump’s impeachment earlier this year and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows is a former congressman who maintains friendships on the Hill.

Former Senator Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire was sherpa for Trump’s first Supreme Court nominee, Neil Gorsuch, and former Senator Jon Kyl of Arizona served in the role for Brett Kavanaugh.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Stati Uniti, Trump

Usa. Sussidi Disoccupazione. Totale assistiti scende a 26,044,952, -3,723,513.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-09-24.

2020-09-24__ Usa Richieste primi sussidi 001

In sintesi.

– Initial claims 870,000, +4,000 from the previous week

– The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending September 5 was 26,044,952, a decrease of 3,723,513 from the previous week

– insured unemployment rate was 8.6 percent for the week ending September 12, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate.

2020-09-17__ Usa Richieste 002

* * * * * * *

2020-09-24__ Usa Richieste primi sussidi 003


Lo United States Department of Labor ha rilasciato il Report UI Weekly Claims: Latest News Release del 24settembre 2020.

                         UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS

                         SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending September 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 870,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 6,000 from 860,000 to 866,000. The 4-week moving average was 878,250, a decrease of 35,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,500 from 912,000 to 913,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 8.6 percent for the week ending September 12, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. The previous week’s rate was revised up by 0.1 from 8.6 to 8.7 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 12 was 12,580,000, a decrease of 167,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 119,000 from 12,628,000 to 12,747,000. The 4-week moving average was 13,040,750, a decrease of 478,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 29,750 from 13,489,000 to 13,518,750.

                         UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 824,542 in the week ending September 19, an increase of 28,527 (or 3.6 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected an increase of 23,891 (or 3.0 percent) from the previous week. There were 175,394 initial claims in the comparable week in 2019. In addition, for the week ending September 19, 52 states reported 630,080 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 8.4 percent during the week ending September 12, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 12,264,351, a decrease of 176,510 (or -1.4 percent) from the preceding week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 9,932 (or -0.1 percent) from the previous week. A year earlier the rate was 1.0 percent and the volume was 1,399,601.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending September 5 was 26,044,952, a decrease of 3,723,513 from the previous week. There were 1,488,601 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2019.

During the week ending September 5, Extended Benefits were available in the following 49 states: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, the Virgin Islands, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Stati Uniti, Trump

Usa. Q3. La Fed di Atlanta prevede il pil a +32.0%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-09-24.

2020-09-18__ FED Atlanta 001

La Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ha rilasciato il 17 settembre la sua ultima previsione sul pil del terzo trimestre, Q3: +32.0%.

Da circa venti anni le sue previsioni sono risultate essere corrette al primo decimale.

* * * * * * *

«The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a “nowcast” of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.

Recent forecasts for the GDPNow model are available here. More extensive numerical details—including underlying source data, forecasts, and model parameters—are available as a separate spreadsheet. You can also view an archive of recent commentaries from GDPNow estimates.

Please note that as of June 5, we no longer support the GDPNow app. Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website to continue to get the latest GDP nowcast and more economic data.

Latest estimate: 32.0 percent — September 17, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 32.0 percent on September 17, up from 31.7 percent on September 16. After this morning’s housing starts report from the U.S.  Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real residential investment growth increased from 39.3 percent to 46.1 percent.»

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Commercio, Stati Uniti, Trump

Usa. Agosto. Vendite al Dettaglio annue +2.57%.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-09-20.

2020-09-17__ Usa Retail Sales 001

Ad agosto le Vendite al Dettaglio hanno registrato un +2.57% annualizzato.

Gli Stati Uniti hanno ammortizzato completamente, per quanto riguarda questo macrodato, gli effetti della pandemia.

Lo Us Bureau of Labor Statistics ha riportato il Report: Retail Trade: NAICS 44-45

«The Retail Trade sector comprises establishments engaged in retailing merchandise, generally without transformation, and rendering services incidental to the sale of merchandise.

The retailing process is the final step in the distribution of merchandise; retailers are, therefore, organized to sell merchandise in small quantities to the general public. This sector comprises two main types of retailers: store and nonstore retailers»

Gli addetti, calati a maggio a 13,673.5 migliaia, ad agosto erano risaliti a 15,016.6 migliaia. Tasso di disoccupazione nel settore eguale a 8.8%.

2020-09-17__ Usa Retail Sales 002

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Giustizia, Stati Uniti, Trump

Usa. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg è deceduta venerdì.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-09-19.

Giustizia 273

«Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died on Friday due to complications of metastatic pancreas cancer, the court announced. She was 87.»

«Ginsburg was appointed in 1993 by President Bill Clinton and in recent years served as the most senior member of the court’s liberal wing, consistently delivering progressive votes on the most divisive social issues of the day, including abortion rights, same-sex marriage, voting rights, immigration, health care and affirmative action.»

«A dirla tutta, nel 2015 Barack Obama l’aveva invitata con discrezione a dimettersi, per via dell’età avanzata, sperando di farle lasciare il posto a un collega più giovane e di provata fede democratica.»

«Ma all’epoca lei aveva fatto finta di non capire e d’altronde l’aveva ripetuto fino all’ultimo: “Il lavoro mi dà la forza di vivere”»

«Sul letto di morte, a Washington, circondata dai suoi familiari, ha però espresso un ultimo desiderio: “La mia ultima e fervente volontà è di non essere rimpiazzata fino a quando non ci sarà un nuovo presidente alla Casa Bianca”.»

«Da domani, c’è da giurarci, per la sua poltrona sarà guerra aperta.»

«Anche perché quando nel febbraio 2016 morì improvvisamente il giudice conservatore Antonin Scalia e Barack Obama nominò il giudice Merrick Garland, la maggioranza repubblicana al Senato, guidata dal senatore del Kentucky Mitch McConnell rifiutò di considerare la candidatura e approvarla sostenendo che Obama era alla fine della sua presidenza (sarebbe scaduta quasi un anno dopo, il 20 gennaio 2017).»

«Solo qualche giorno fa Trump ha annunciato di aver redatto una lista con circa 20 nomi di papabili giudici costituzionali. Fra questi gli ultraconservatori senatori Ted Cruz, del Texas e Tom Cotton, dell’Arizona. Alle elezioni manca pochissimo.»

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Una cosa è la volontà, l’altra la cocciutaggine.

Sua Giustizia Ruth Bader Ginsburg aveva rifiutato l’offerta di Mr Obama di ritirarsi, per essere sostituita da un altro giudice liberal, ma molto più giovane.

Come tutte le persone alteramente superbe, non ne aveva voluto sapere: supponeva di essere immortale.

Il Presidente Trump ha adesso quaranta giorni a disposizione per cercare di nominare un nuovo giudice nella Corte Suprema, prima che si tengano le elezioni.

Se riuscisse in questa operazione, nel suo quadriennio avrebbe nominato ben tre giudici della Corte Suprema, portando a sei contro tre la componente repubblicana contro quella liberal democratica. Se poi nominasse un quarantenne, i giudici supremi sono nominati a vita, la Suprema Corte avrebbe una solida maggioranza repubblicana per almeno trenta anni consecutivi. Sarebbe il coup de grâce ai liberal democratici e l’occidente sarebbe completamente mutato.

*


Usa, addio a Ruth Bader Ginsburg, giudice icona liberal della Corte Suprema. Le sue ultime volontà: “Sostituitemi dopo le elezioni”.

Aveva 87 anni, nominata da Clinton nel ’93. Femminista, abortista, pro matrimoni gay, era la figura più a sinistra della massima istituzione giudiziaria. E ora, sulla sua successione, si gioca una partita vitale.

La paladina delle donne se n’è andata. La giudice della Corte Suprema Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 87 anni, non ha resistito oltre. Il cancro al pancreas di cui soffriva da tempo e l’aveva già fatta finire cinque volte in ospedale, l’ha uccisa ieri sera. Lasciando sgomenta l’America democratica che ormai la considerava praticamente immortale.

RGB – l’acronimo con cui tutti qui la chiamavano, reso celebre da una biografia con quel titolo e un documentario premiato dall’Oscar – è invece morta a poche settimane dal voto. E ora Donald Trump, c’è da giurarci, farà di tutto per eleggere un ennesimo conservatore prima del 3 novembre, ben cosciente del peso elettorale di una scelta che potrebbe spostare definitivamente a destra quella Corte Suprema attualmente formata da 5 giudici repubblicani su nove: un sesto, per intenderci, potrebbe influenzare le scelte legislative e sociali di questo paese per le prossime generazioni.

Veterana liberal della Corte Suprema, nominata da Bill Clinton nel 1993, Bader Ginsburg era considerata un’icona femminista: ed era così popolare da avere il suo volto stampato su borse e t-shirt, mentre i suoi celebri colletti ricamati, indossati sulla toga nera, facevano ormai anche quelli tendenza. Mentre ogni sua uscita pubblica era accolta da standing ovation. ….

A dirla tutta, nel 2015 Barack Obama l’aveva invitata con discrezione a dimettersi, per via dell’età avanzata, sperando di farle lasciare il posto a un collega più giovane e di provata fede democratica. Ma all’epoca lei aveva fatto finta di non capire e d’altronde l’aveva ripetuto fino all’ultimo: “Il lavoro mi dà la forza di vivere”. Sul letto di morte, a Washington, circondata dai suoi familiari, ha però espresso un ultimo desiderio: “La mia ultima e fervente volontà è di non essere rimpiazzata fino a quando non ci sarà un nuovo presidente alla Casa Bianca”.

Da domani, c’è da giurarci, per la sua poltrona sarà guerra aperta. Anche perché quando nel febbraio 2016 morì improvvisamente il giudice conservatore Antonin Scalia e Barack Obama nominò il giudice Merrick Garland, la maggioranza repubblicana al Senato, guidata dal senatore del Kentucky Mitch McConnell rifiutò di considerare la candidatura e approvarla sostenendo che Obama era alla fine della sua presidenza (sarebbe scaduta quasi un anno dopo, il 20 gennaio 2017).

In realtà non esiste nessun regolamento del genere e i repubblicani lo sanno bene. Solo qualche giorno fa Trump ha annunciato di aver redatto una lista con circa 20 nomi di papabili giudici costituzionali. Fra questi gli ultraconservatori senatori Ted Cruz, del Texas e Tom Cotton, dell’Arizona. Alle elezioni manca pochissimo. E vedremo chi la spunta.

* * * * * * *


CNN. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg dead at 87.

Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died on Friday due to complications of metastatic pancreas cancer, the court announced. She was 87.

Ginsburg was appointed in 1993 by President Bill Clinton and in recent years served as the most senior member of the court’s liberal wing, consistently delivering progressive votes on the most divisive social issues of the day, including abortion rights, same-sex marriage, voting rights, immigration, health care and affirmative action.

Her death — less than seven weeks before Election Day — opens up a political fight over the future of the court. Addressing the liberal justice’s death, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Friday evening, “President Trump’s nominee will receive a vote on the floor of the United States Senate.”

But Ginsburg told her granddaughter she wanted her replacement to be appointed by the next president, NPR reported. “My most fervent wish is that I will not be replaced until a new president is installed,” she dictated to granddaughter Clara Spera days before her death.

“She led an amazing life. What else can you say?” President Donald Trump said Friday evening upon hearing about her death. “She was an amazing woman whether you agree or not she was an amazing woman who led an amazing life.”

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden praised Ginsburg as a “giant in the legal profession” and a “beloved figure,” saying in brief on-camera remarks Friday evening that people “should focus on the loss of the justice and her enduring legacy.”

“But there is no doubt, let me be clear that the voters should pick the president and the president should pick the justice for the Senate to consider,” he added, saying that was the position of Republicans who refused to vote on then-President Barack Obama’s nominee in 2016.

Obama, in a statement mourning Ginsburg, also called for Senate Republicans to uphold the standard they set in 2016 when they blocked his nominee.

“Over a long career on both sides of the bench — as a relentless litigator and an incisive jurist — Justice Ginsburg helped us see that discrimination on the basis of sex isn’t about an abstract ideal of equality; that it doesn’t only harm women; that it has real consequences for all of us. It’s about who we are — and who we can be,” Obama said in a statement.

He added, “Ruth Bader Ginsburg fought to the end, through her cancer, with unwavering faith in our democracy and its ideals. That’s how we remember her. But she also left instructions for how she wanted her legacy to be honored. Four and a half years ago, when Republicans refused to hold a hearing or an up-or-down vote on Merrick Garland, they invented the principle that the Senate shouldn’t fill an open seat on the Supreme Court before a new president was sworn in.

A basic principle of the law — and of everyday fairness — is that we apply rules with consistency, and not based on what’s convenient or advantageous in the moment.”

Ginsburg developed a rock star status and was dubbed the “Notorious R.B.G.” In speaking events across the country before liberal audiences, she was greeted with standing ovations as she spoke about her view of the law, her famed exercise routine and her often fiery dissents.

“Our Nation has lost a jurist of historic stature,” said Chief Justice John Roberts. “We at the Supreme Court have lost a cherished colleague. Today we mourn, but with confidence that future generations will remember Ruth Bader Ginsburg as we knew her — a tireless and resolute champion of justice.”

Ginsburg, who died on the eve of the Jewish new year, was surrounded by her family at her home in Washington, DC, the court said. A private interment service will be held at Arlington National Cemetery.

Ginsburg had suffered from five bouts of cancer, most recently a recurrence in early 2020 when a biopsy revealed lesions on her liver. She had said that chemotherapy was yielding “positive results” and that she was able to maintain an active daily routine.

“I have often said I would remain a member of the Court as long as I can do the job full steam,” she said in a statement in July 2020. “I remain fully able to do that.”

She told an audience in 2019 that she liked to keep busy even when she was fighting cancer. “I found each time that when I’m active, I’m much better than if I’m just lying about and feeling sorry for myself,” she said in New York at the Yale Club at an event hosted by Moment Magazine. Ginsburg told another audience that she thought she would serve until she was 90 years old.

Tiny in stature, she could write opinions that roared disapproval when she thought the majority had gone astray.

Before the election of President Donald Trump, Ginsburg told CNN that he “is a faker” and noted that he had “gotten away with not turning over his tax returns.” She later said she regretted making the comments and Trump suggested she should recuse herself in cases concerning him. She never did.

n 2011, by contrast, President Barack Obama singled out Ginsburg at a White House ceremony. “She’s one of my favorites,” he said, “I’ve got a soft spot for Justice Ginsburg.”

The vacancy gives Trump the opportunity to further solidify the conservative majority on the court and fill the seat of a woman who broke through the glass ceiling at a time when few women attended law school with a different justice who could steer the court to the right on social issues.

Ginsburg was well-known for the work she did before taking the bench, when she served as an advocate for the American Civil Liberties Union and became the architect of a legal strategy to bring cases to the courts that would ensure that the 14th Amendment’s guarantee of equal protection applied to gender.

“I had the good fortune to be alive and a lawyer in the late 1960s when, for the first time in the history of the United States, it became possible to urge before courts, successfully, that society would benefit enormously if women were regarded as persons equal in stature to men,'” she said in a commencement speech in 2002.

Once she took the bench, Ginsburg had the reputation of a “judge’s judge” for the clarity of her opinions that gave straightforward guidance to the lower courts.

At the Supreme Court, she was perhaps best known for the opinion she wrote in United States v. Virginia, a decision that held that the all-male admissions policy at the state funded Virginia Military Institute was unconstitutional for its ban on women applicants.

“The constitutional violation in this case is the categorical exclusion of women from an extraordinary educational opportunity afforded men,” she wrote in 1996.

Ginsburg faced discrimination herself when she graduated from law school in 1959 and could not find a clerkship.

No one was more surprised than Ginsburg of the status she gained with young women in her late 70s and early 80s. She was amused by the swag that appeared praising her work, including a “You Can’t have the Truth, Without Ruth” T-shirt as well as coffee mugs and bobbleheads. Some young women went as far as getting tattoos bearing her likeness. A Tumblr dubbed her the “Notorious R.B.G.” in reference to a rap star known as “Notorious B.I.G.” The name stuck. One artist set Ginsburg’s dissent in a religious liberty case to music.

“It makes absolute sense that Justice Ginsburg has become an idol for younger generations,” Justice Elena Kagan said at an event at the New York Bar Association in 2014. “Her impact on America and American law has been extraordinary.”

“As a litigator and then as a judge, she changed the face of American anti-discrimination law,” Kagan said. “She can take credit for making the law of this country work for women and in doing so she made possible my own career.”

Ginsburg, even after her fifth diagnosis of cancer, was working on a book with one of her former clerks, Amanda Tyler. It was based on her life on gender equality.

Dissents and strategy

Part of Ginsburg’s renown came from her fierce dissents in key cases, often involving civil rights or equal protection.

In 2007, the court heard a case concerning Lilly Ledbetter, who had worked as a supervisor at a Goodyear Tire plant in Alabama. Near the end of her career, Ledbetter discovered a pay disparity between her salary and the salaries of male co-workers. She filed a claim arguing she had received a discriminatorily low salary because of her sex, in violation of federal law. A majority of the court found against Ledbetter, ruling she had filed her complaints too late. Ginsburg wasn’t impressed with that reasoning.

“The court’s insistence on immediate contest overlooks common characteristics of pay discrimination,” Ginsburg wrote, urging Congress to take up the issue, which it did in 2009.

In 2015, it was Ginsburg who led the liberal block of the court as it voted in favor of same-sex marriage with the critical fifth vote of Justice Anthony Kennedy. Kennedy wrote the opinion and it was joined by the liberals, who chose not to write separately. Ginsburg was likely behind that strategy and she said later that had she written the majority she might have put more emphasis on equal protection.

After the retirement of Justice John Paul Stevens, Ginsburg was the most senior of her liberal colleagues and she had the power to assign opinions when the chief justice was on the other side.

She assigned herself an angry dissent when the court struck down a key provision of the Voting Rights Act in 2013.

“The sad irony of today’s decision lies in its utter failure to grasp why the VRA has proven effective,” she wrote. She compared racial discrimination to a “vile infection” and said early attempts to protect against it were like “battling the Hydra.”

She also penned a partial dissent in a 2012 case concerning Obama’s health care law, disagreeing with the conservative justices that the individual mandate was not a valid exercise of Congress’ power under the Commerce Clause. She called the reasoning “crabbed” but was satisfied that Chief Justice John Roberts delivered the fifth vote to uphold the law under the taxing power.

Ginsburg puzzled some liberals with her criticisms of the 1973 decision in Roe v. Wade that legalized abortion — a case that was decided well before she took the bench. Although she said she felt like the result was right, she thought the Supreme Court should have limited itself to the Texas statute at hand instead of issuing a sweeping decision that created a target for opponents to abortion rights.

She was in dissent in 2007 when the majority upheld a federal ban on a procedure called “partial birth abortion.” She called the decision “alarming” and said that it “tolerates, indeed applauds, federal intervention to ban nationwide a procedure found necessary and proper in certain cases by the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists.”

She voted with the majority, however, in 2016 when the court struck down a Texas abortion law that critics called one of the strictest nationwide.

In July, Ginsburg filed another fierce dissent when the conservative majority allowed the Trump administration to expand exemptions for employers who have religious or moral objections to complying with the Affordable Care Act’s contraceptive mandate.

“Today, for the first time, the Court casts totally aside countervailing rights and interests in its zeal to secure religious rights to the nth degree,” Ginsburg wrote, joined by Justice Sonia Sotomayor. She observed that the administration had said the new rules would cause thousands of women — “between 70,500 and 126,400 women of childbearing age,” she wrote — to lose coverage.

Friendship with Scalia

Despite their ideological differences, her best friend on the bench was the late Justice Antonin Scalia. After the conservative’s sudden death in February 2016, Ginsburg said he left her a “treasure trove” of memories.

She was a life-long opera fan who appeared onstage in 2016 at the Kennedy Center for a non-speaking role in the Washington National Opera’s “The Daughter of the Regiment.”

At speaking events she often lamented that while she dreamed of being a great opera diva, she had been born with the limited range of a sparrow.

Her relationship with Scalia inspired Derrick Wang to compose a comic opera he titled “Scalia/Ginsburg” that was based on opinions penned by the two justices.

The actress Kate McKinnon also portrayed Ginsburg — wearing black robes and a trademark jabot — in a recurring “Saturday Night Live” skit responding to the news of the day.

Ginsburg suffered two bouts of cancer in 1999 and 2009 and received a stent implant in her heart but never missed a day of oral arguments. She was married to Martin Ginsburg, a noted tax attorney, for more than 50 years until his death in 2010 and they had two children.

“I would just like people to think of me as a judge who did the best she could with whatever limited talent I had,” Ginsburg said at an event at the University of California Hastings College of Law in 2011, “to keep our country true to what makes it a great nation and to make things a little better than they might have been if I hadn’t been there.”

Pubblicato in: Commercio, Trump

Betfair. Gli allibratori scommettono su Trump vincente.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-09-15.

Betfair Allibratori 001

«U.S. President Donald Trump has overtaken Democratic rival Joe Biden to stand as the favorite to win the 2020 U.S. Presidential election on Europe-based betting exchange Betfair»

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«Betfair is an online gambling company which operates the world’s largest online betting exchange. It also offers a Sportsbook (fixed odds betting), online casino, online poker and online bingo. The company’s headquarters are located in Hammersmith in West London, United Kingdom and Clonskeagh, Dublin.

It was listed on the London Stock Exchange as Betfair Group plc, until it merged with Paddy Power to form Paddy Power Betfair (now Flutter Entertainment) on 2 February 2016.  ….

Betfair claims to have over 4 million customers (1.1 million active customers) and a turnover in excess of £50 million a week. As of April 2013, the company employed 1,800 people worldwide.» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

Betfair è una delle maggiori società mondiali di scommesse online.

Seguirla sarebbe cosa importante per il semplice motivo che misura la propensione della gente ad investire il proprio denaro scommettendo sulla vincita di un candidato piuttosto che di un altro. E, diciamolo francamente, le parole sono parole, ma il denaro è il denaro: a nessuno piacerebbe perderlo per sostenere una ideologia.

«Trump overtakes Biden as favorite to win in November»

«U.S. President Donald Trump has overtaken Democratic rival Joe Biden to stand as the favorite to win the 2020 U.S. Presidential election on Europe-based betting exchange Betfair»

«Trump’s odds, reflecting wagers matched on the peer-to-peer betting network, stood at evens …. versus 21-20 for Biden»

«Betfair Exchange said four bets of over 10,000 pounds ($13,362) were placed on the platform overnight, of which three were on Trump, while the biggest stake of the campaign so far, a 50,000-pound bet, was placed on the Republican nominee over the weekend»

«completing a stunning recovery in the betting markets»

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Gli allibratori londinesi sono celebri per la loro serietà nel riconoscere cash le vincite, ma nell’analisi delle contingenze sono spietati. Nessuna ideologia li conturba, né, tanto meno, la passione sportiva.

Ovviamente essi possono essere considerati dei ragionevoli indicatori, che non dovrebbero essere però né sottovalutati, né sopravalutati. Si constati quindi, ma sempre con sano buon senso.

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Trump overtakes Biden as favorite to win in November: Betfair Exchange.

U.S. President Donald Trump has overtaken Democratic rival Joe Biden to stand as the favorite to win the 2020 U.S. Presidential election on Europe-based betting exchange Betfair, the exchange said on Wednesday.

Trump’s odds, reflecting wagers matched on the peer-to-peer betting network, stood at evens, Betfair Exchange said, versus 21-20 for Biden.

Betfair Exchange said four bets of over 10,000 pounds ($13,362) were placed on the platform overnight, of which three were on Trump, while the biggest stake of the campaign so far, a 50,000-pound bet, was placed on the Republican nominee over the weekend.

These bets in part aided Trump to take the lead, after being neck-and-neck with Biden earlier this week, completing a stunning recovery in the betting markets.

“In August, Trump had the worst odds for re-election of any sitting President in history and defeat to Biden was looking increasingly likely,” Darren Hughes, spokesperson at Flutter Entertainment unit Betfair Exchange, said.

A Reuters/Ipsos national opinion poll on Wednesday showed 40% of registered voters support Trump, compared with 47% who said they will vote for Biden.

Biden’s lead is largely unchanged over the past three weeks, during which both parties held conventions to nominate their candidates Trump and Biden for the presidency.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti, Trump

Usa. Giudice distrettuale ordina di prolungare le acquisizioni del Census. È guerra aperta.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-09-14.

Bureau of the Census 001

Ogni dieci anni in America il Census esegue il censimento della popolazione residente, stato per stato. I risultati sono utilizzati per assegnare ad ogni stato della federazione il numero dei deputati che eleggerà al Congresso e la proporzionalità della divisione dei fondi federali.

Vi è una diatriba legale quasi centenaria tra repubblicani e democratici sulla tipologia delle persone che il Census deve considerare. I democratici sostengono che debbano essere tutte le persone umane fisicamente presenti, mentre i repubblicani affermano che dovrebbero essere solo i cittadini americani. A momento, il problema è ancora irrisolto.

Le battaglie legali fanno da paravento a sordidi interessi di vilissima bottega.

I liberal democratici hanno importato su scala industriale milioni di immigrati illegali clandestini, che a loro opinione dovrebbero poter votare, magari presentandosi alla registrazione al voto diverse volte con nomi differenti.

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Chiarito il motivo del contendere ecco le news.

«Federal Judge blocks, for now, further winding down of the 2020 Census.»

«The Census Bureau had begun ending its count in places where it considered its job done. But a lawsuit claims that stopping now will result in a flawed count»

«The tortuous course of the 2020 census, first slowed by the coronavirus pandemic and then placed on a fast track by the Trump administration, took yet another twist on Friday when a federal judge temporarily blocked the administration’s order to wrap up the count a month ahead of schedule.»

«Judge Lucy H. Koh of the United States District Court in Northern California halted plans for an early finish to the head-counting portion of the census at least until a mid-September hearing in a lawsuit that seeks to scrap the expedited schedule altogether»

«Because the decennial census is at issue here, an inaccurate count would not be remedied for another decade»

«the order to end the head-counting portion of the census early will lead to an inaccurate tally that will cost some communities both political representation and millions of federal dollars that are allotted based on population totals.»

«The Trump administration said at the time that it would extend the deadline for completing the count to October 31 to make up for that delay, and move the date for delivering population totals to the White House to April 2021, from its current December 31 deadline»

«But as census outreach prepared to resume last month, the administration reversed course, ordering the count wrapped up by September 30, and delivery of totals by December 31»

«The apparent reason was that the administration wants to exclude noncitizens from the population totals that will be sent to Congress early next year for reallocating seats in the House of Representatives and drawing political boundaries nationwide»

«suppressing the political power of communities of color by excluding undocumented people from the final apportionment count»

«In a deposition filed on Friday, the census official in daily charge of the count, Albert E. Fontenot Jr., testified that the bureau was on schedule to complete the biggest part of its remaining count — the tally of non-responding households by an army of 235,000 door-knockers — by the end of September»

«the Census Bureau is confident that it can achieve a complete and accurate census and report apportionment counts by December 31»

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A nostro sommesso parere, il probema dovrebbe essere affrontato e definito una volta per tutte dalla Suprema Corte.

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Federal Judge Blocks, For Now, Further Winding Down of the 2020 Census.

The Census Bureau had begun ending its count in places where it considered its job done. But a lawsuit claims that stopping now will result in a flawed count.

WASHINGTON — The tortuous course of the 2020 census, first slowed by the coronavirus pandemic and then placed on a fast track by the Trump administration, took yet another twist on Friday when a federal judge temporarily blocked the administration’s order to wrap up the count a month ahead of schedule.

Judge Lucy H. Koh of the United States District Court in Northern California halted plans for an early finish to the head-counting portion of the census at least until a mid-September hearing in a lawsuit that seeks to scrap the expedited schedule altogether. Noting that the Census Bureau already has begun to dismantle counting operations in some places where it considers the count complete, the judge effectively said the plaintiffs’ suit could be overtaken by events if the wind-down of the count was not suspended.

“Because the decennial census is at issue here, an inaccurate count would not be remedied for another decade,” Judge Koh wrote.

The National Urban League, the League of Women Voters and a host of advocacy groups and local governments filed the suit last month. They argue that the order to end the head-counting portion of the census early will lead to an inaccurate tally that will cost some communities both political representation and millions of federal dollars that are allotted based on population totals.

The court order throws another wrench into a census that already was the most ill-starred and politically freighted tally since at least 1920, when a Republican-dominated Congress refused outright to accept a population count that would have shifted political power to Democratic cities.

As Covid-19 swept the nation this spring, the bureau was forced to postpone key parts of its population count until August. The Trump administration said at the time that it would extend the deadline for completing the count to October 31 to make up for that delay, and move the date for delivering population totals to the White House to April 2021, from its current December 31 deadline.

But as census outreach prepared to resume last month, the administration reversed course, ordering the count wrapped up by September 30, and delivery of totals by December 31. The apparent reason was that the administration wants to exclude noncitizens from the population totals that will be sent to Congress early next year for reallocating seats in the House of Representatives and drawing political boundaries nationwide.

But the Census Bureau can only deliver population totals to the White House by December 31 if it shortens the time spent counting residents. And with an uphill battle to win a second term in the election in November, Mr. Trump can be assured of control over population totals only if they are delivered to the White House by that deadline.

Critics have called that a baldly political attempt to create a whiter, more Republican-leaning population total for use in reapportionment and redistricting. The lawsuit opposing the shortened deadline said as much, saying the schedule suggested it was devised “to facilitate another illegal act: suppressing the political power of communities of color by excluding undocumented people from the final apportionment count.”

An array of experts, including former Census Bureau directors, have warned that the earlier deadlines could not be met without shortcuts that would lead to a dramatically less accurate census — in particular, a census that would miss the poor, the young and minority groups who are traditionally the hardest to count.

In a deposition filed on Friday, the census official in daily charge of the count, Albert E. Fontenot Jr., testified that the bureau was on schedule to complete the biggest part of its remaining count — the tally of non-responding households by an army of 235,000 door-knockers — by the end of September. Mr. Fontenot said the bureau had counted more than 60 percent of those non-responders as of September 1, and 84 percent of all households over all.

He also said that the bureau planned to speed up its data processing operations by eliminating “redundant quality control operations,” delaying some work until after initial population figures are sent to the White House and cutting 21 days from time allotted for “subject matter expert review and software error remediation,” among other moves.

“These changes increase the risk the Census Bureau will not identify errors during post processing in time to fix them,” he said. But, he added, “the Census Bureau is confident that it can achieve a complete and accurate census and report apportionment counts” by December 31.

In her ruling blocking the wind-down of the count, Judge Koh noted that senior census officials had come to the opposite conclusion this summer. In fact, she writes, Mr. Fontenot “acknowledged publicly less than two months ago that the bureau was “past the window of being able to get accurate counts to the President by December 31.”

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti, Trump

Stati Uniti. Luglio. Generati 6.618 milioni di Nuovi Lavori Jolts. Un trionfo per Mr Trump.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-09-10.

2020-09-09__ Usa Jolts 001

US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

2020-09-09__ Usa Jolts 002

JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER – JULY 2020

The number of job openings increased to 6.6 million on the last business day of July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires decreased to 5.8 million in July. Total separations was little changed at 5.0 million. Within separations, the quits rate rose to 2.1 percent while the layoffs and discharges rate decreased to 1.2 percent. These changes in the labor market reflected an ongoing resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. This release includes estimates of the number and rate of job openings, hires, and separations for the total nonfarm sector, by industry, and by four geographic regions.

Job Openings

On the last business day of July, the number and rate of job openings increased to 6.6 million (+617,000) and 4.5 percent, respectively. Job openings rose in a number of industries, with the largest increases in retail trade (+172,000), health care and social assistance (+146,000), and construction (+90,000). The number of job openings increased in the South and Midwest regions. (See table 1.)

Hires

In July, the number and rate of hires decreased to 5.8 million (-1,183,000) and 4.1 percent, respectively. Over the year, the hires level was little changed. Hires decreased in a number of industries, with the largest fall in accommodation and food services (-599,000), followed by other services (-143,000), and health care and social assistance (-137,000). Hires increased in federal government (+33,000), largely because of Census hiring. Hires also increased in real estate and rental and leasing (+26,000). The number of hires decreased in all four regions. (See table 2.)

Separations

Total separations includes quits, layoffs and discharges, and other separations. Total separations is referred to as turnover. Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, the quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. Layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Other separations includes separations due to retirement, death, disability, and transfers to other locations of the same firm.

In July, the number and rate of total separations was little changed at 5.0 million and 3.6 percent, respectively. Total separations increased in retail trade (+112,000) and in state and local government education (+49,000). The number of total separations decreased in durable goods manufacturing (-44,000). Total separations was little changed in all four regions. (See table 3.)

In July, the number and rate of quits increased to 2.9 million (+344,000) and 2.1 percent, respectively.

Quits increased in retail trade (+152,000), professional and business services (+98,000), and state and local government education (+35,000). The number of quits increased in the Midwest and West regions. (See table 4.)

The number and rate of layoffs and discharges decreased to 1.7 million (-274,000) and 1.2 percent,

respectively in July. The layoffs and discharges level decreased in durable goods manufacturing (-40,000), transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-40,000), and wholesale trade (-21,000). The number of layoffs and discharges decreased in the Northeast and South regions. (See table 5.)

The number of other separations was little changed in July at 337,000. Other separations increased in a few industries, with the largest increases in transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+35,000) and state and local government education (+16,000). Other separations decreased in health care and social assistance (-22,000). Other separations was little changed in all four regions. (See table 6.)

Net Change in Employment

Large numbers of hires and separations occur every month throughout the business cycle. Net employment change results from the relationship between hires and separations. When the number of hires exceeds the number of separations, employment rises, even if the hires level is steady or declining. Conversely, when the number of hires is less than the number of separations, employment declines, even if the hires level is steady or rising.

Over the 12 months ending in July, hires totaled 70.2 million and separations totaled 78.5 million, yielding a net employment loss of 8.2 million. These totals include workers who may have been hired and separated more than once during the year.

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U.S. Job Openings Rise in July; More Workers Quitting.

U.S. job openings increased further in July and more workers quit their jobs in the retail as well as professional and business services industries likely because of fears of exposure to COVID-19 and problems with child care.

Job openings, a measure of labor demand, jumped 617,000 to 6.6 million on the last day of July, the Labor Department said on Wednesday in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS. Still, vacancies remain below their level of 7 million in February. The job openings rate shot up to 4.5% from 4.2% in June.

The number of people voluntarily quitting their jobs increased 344,000 to 2.9 million. There were 152,000 workers who quit their jobs in the retail sector. In the professional and business services sector, 98,000 workers left. State and local government education reported 35,000 workers quit in July.

The JOLTS report followed on the heels of news last Friday that the economy created 1.371 million jobs in August after adding 1.734 million in July. About 10.6 million of the 22.2 million jobs lost at the depth of the coronavirus pandemic have been recovered.

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CNBC. July JOLTS report sees 6.6M job openings vs. 6M expected

«CNBC’s Rick Santelli reports on the latest round of economic data as the U.S. tries to recover from the coronavirus pandemic»

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Nel mese di luglio Mr Trump ha generato 6,618 milioni di nuovi posti di lavoro.

A giugno ne aveva generati 5.889 milioni, ed a maggio 5.397 milioni. 

«L’indice JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) fornisce una indicazione sui volumi delle offerte di lavoro, sulle assunzioni e sul turnover, misurando l’eccesso di offerta di lavoro (posti vacanti) per un determinato settore e in un determinato periodo»

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Il mercato del lavoro è dinamico. Vi sono flussi in ingresso e flussi in uscita.

Se sono di ovvio interesse i macrodati relativi alle richieste di sussidio di disoccupazione, sono altrettanto utili gli indicatori di quanti abbiano trovato modo di reintegrarsi nel ciclo produttivo. Integrazione che però dipende strettamente dalla offerta di posti di lavoro: più questa sia sostenuta e più rapidamente i disoccupati trovino una nuova occupazione.

Prendiamo quindi atto che l’economia americana abbia generato a luglio altri 6.618 milioni di nuovi posti di lavoro.

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Le parole sono necessarie, ma spesso sono anche inutili e maliarde.

Questi numeri potranno essere discussi a piacere, ovviamente, ma come tali restano come macigni.


Indice JOLTS. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

«L’indice JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) fornisce una indicazione sui volumi delle offerte di lavoro, sulle assunzioni e sul turnover, misurando l’eccesso di offerta di lavoro (posti vacanti) per un determinato settore e in un determinato periodo. L’indagine offre una valida panoramica dell’andamento del mercato del lavoro degli Stati Uniti: la creazione di occupazione è uno dei più importanti indicatori in grado di anticipare le tendenze dell’attività economica complessiva.

Il dato viene pubblicato mensilmente dal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), un’agenzia governativa che dipende dal Dipartimento del Lavoro e che raccoglie ed elabora dati statistici sul lavoro. Le indicazioni ricavabili da questo sondaggio aiutano nell’analisi dei cicli economici specifici di ogni settore, riflettendo ogni rapido cambiamento delle condizioni economiche nel mercato del lavoro USA. Inoltre offrono al governo americano un sostanziale aiuto per la formulazione di una corretta politica economica: il numero di offerte di lavoro aumenta durante le fasi di espansione del ciclo economico e diminuisce nelle fasi di recessione.

Le variabili e gli indicatori di flusso

Per la compilazione dell’indagine vengono presi in esame i dati relativi all’occupazione totale, alle assunzioni, ai licenziamenti, ai ricollocamenti, al pensionamento provenienti da tutte le società private non agricole, dagli enti federali e da quelli statali in 50 Stati oltre al distretto della Columbia. Complessivamente vengono prese in esame 16.000 aziende. I dati raccolti vengono classificati in base ai settori industriali e alle dimensioni delle aziende (per numero di occupati). Nella misurazione dell’indice vengono considerate non solo le assunzioni e le cessazioni in senso stretto, ma anche le trasformazioni dei rapporti di lavoro, le proroghe dei rapporti di lavoro e le cessazioni dei rapporti di lavoro direttamente antecedenti a trasformazioni o a proroghe.

Il saldo tra il totale degli avviamenti al lavoro (assunzioni + trasformazioni + proroghe) e il totale delle cessazioni dei rapporti di lavoro (cessazioni + cessazioni antecedenti trasformazioni e proroghe) fornisce una rappresentazione del processo di creazione/distruzione netta dei rapporti di lavoro in una determinata unità di tempo.»

Pubblicato in: Banche Centrali, Stati Uniti, Trump

Fed Atlanta. Pil Q3 stimato a +26.1% (sic). Se confermato, Trump vince.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela

2020-09-04.

2020-09-01__ Fed Atlanta 001

La Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta ospita il servizio GDP Now, modello previsionale del prodotto interno lordo americano nel prossimo trimestre. In passato, ha sempre fornito stime previsionali attendibili.

2020-09-01__ Fed Atlanta 002

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Sotto la condizione che queste previsioni trovino poi riscontro nei fatti, i macrodati relativi al terzo trimestre indicherebbero una quasi normalizzazione del sistema economico statunitense.

Inutile dire, poi, che un pil trimestrale a +26.1% ed una spesa al consumo del +27.8% sarebbero un ottimo viatico verso la rielezione nelle elezioni presidenziali.

Nota.

Il termine (sic) indica che quanto scritto è corretto, e non è un refuso.

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«GDPNow

The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a “nowcast” of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate their impact on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.

Recent forecasts for the GDPNow model are available here. More extensive numerical details—including underlying source data, forecasts, and model parameters—are available as a separate spreadsheet. You can also view an archive of recent commentaries from GDPNow estimates.

Please note that as of June 5, we no longer support the GDPNow app. Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website to continue to get the latest GDP nowcast and more economic data. .

Latest estimate: 28.9 percent — August 28, 2020

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2020 is 28.9 percent on August 28, up from 25.6 percent on August 26. After recent data releases from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 28.1 percent and 15.1 percent, respectively, to 33.8 percent and 22.4 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 1.52 percentage points to -0.04 percentage points.»

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The Conference Board Economic Forecast for the US Economy – August 2020.

With second quarter 2020 GDP growth down to -32.9 percent (annualized rate compared to the first quarter of 2020) the US economy is struggling to recover from the single largest quarterly contraction in 75 years. This historic figure followed a contraction of 5 percent in the first quarter. Moving forward, we expect the economy to rebound in the third quarter, but there are numerous upside and downside risks at play. ….

Base Case Forecast: Our base case forecast includes a third quarter GDP rebound of 26 percent and a fourth quarter GDP contraction of 1.6 percent, both annualized rates. ….

This yields an annual growth rate of -4.9 percent in 2020 and puts the US economy on a path for about 2 percent growth in 2021. ….

Upside Forecast: Alternatively, we offer a second more optimistic scenario in which the growth trend seen in May and June is sustained in July, August, and September. Even if this is the case, we would still expect high unemployment rates, in the double digits, to damage consumer demand in the fourth quarter. This upside forecast results in an annual growth rate of -3.3 percent in 2020 and a rebound of 4.4 percent in 2021. In this scenario US monthly economic output with completely recover by August 2021.

Pubblicato in: Devoluzione socialismo, Stati Uniti, Trump

Facebook Top-Performing links. 2020-08-31.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2020-09-02.

2020-09-02__ FB top 10

Questi sono gli autori dei dieci post più linkati di Facebook nel giorno 2020-08-31.

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Dan Bongino. Republicano. Commentatore.

Ben Shapiro. Repubblicano. «Estremamente conservatore». Opinionista.

Robert Reich. Democratico. Accademico ed opinionista.

Nelson soleva ripetere che solo il numero annienta.

I liberal democratici hanno lasciato spazio su Facebook ai repubblicani, che ne hanno monopolizzato le letture di decine di milioni di utenti, irragiungibili da parte dei liberal, che quasi ne ignorano la esistenza.