Pubblicato in: Armamenti, Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Mondiale, Stati Uniti

Midterm. Il nuovo Congresso Gop potrebbe abbandonare Zelensky.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-12-02.

Moscow Bolshaya Lubyanka 001

                         Guerra Russia-NATO: con la Camera a guida repubblicana, il sostegno degli Stati Uniti all’Ucraina diminuirà. L’Ucraina sta provocando una vera e propria guerra diretta tra Russia e NATO? E se non dovesse avere successo, la credibilità dell’Ucraina agli occhi dell’Occidente, nell’era della guerra dell’informazione, ne risulterebbe compromessa? Soprattutto, il fallimento dell’Ucraina influirà negativamente sull’afflusso di miliardi di dollari statunitensi (in denaro e in natura), soprattutto quando i repubblicani controlleranno la Camera dei Rappresentanti dopo le elezioni di midterm degli Stati Uniti?.

                         Il ministro degli Esteri ucraino Dmytro Kuleba si è unito al suo presidente, affermando che la Russia ora promuove una teoria cospirativa secondo cui sarebbe stato un missile della difesa aerea ucraina a cadere sulla teoria polacca. Il che non è vero. E tutto questo nonostante il punto più vicino alla Russia al luogo dell’esplosione in Polonia sia a circa 580 chilometri (360 miglia) di distanza, molto più lontano della portata del sistema S-300, che secondo gli esperti è di circa 90 chilometri (56 miglia).

                         La situazione sta diventando ridicola. Gli ucraini stanno distruggendo la [nostra] fiducia in loro. Nessuno incolpa l’Ucraina e loro mentono apertamente. Questo è più distruttivo del missile. Le teorie cospiratorie sull’incidente missilistico in Polonia potrebbero indebolire la sua credibilità in un momento in cui sono stati sollevati dubbi sul valore degli aiuti continui. Questa apprensione è particolarmente pertinente ora che i repubblicani controlleranno la Camera dei Rappresentanti degli Stati Uniti, che ha già dato all’Ucraina oltre 20 miliardi di dollari e si è impegnata a fornirne altri 40 per i suoi sforzi bellici.

                         I repubblicani e gli indipendenti di orientamento repubblicano hanno fatto campagna elettorale durante le elezioni di metà mandato appena concluse negli Stati Uniti, sostenendo che Washington sta fornendo un sostegno eccessivo all’Ucraina nella guerra. Penso che la gente si troverà in una situazione di recessione e non scriverà un assegno in bianco all’Ucraina. Si può notare che una fazione di estrema destra tra i repubblicani, tra cui i sostenitori dell’ex presidente Donald Trump, ha spinto sempre più contro la prosecuzione dell’assistenza all’Ucraina, affermando che i miliardi che gli Stati Uniti hanno fornito a Kiev sono troppo costosi e non valgono il rischio di scatenare un conflitto più ampio con la Russia.

                         Ad aprile, dieci repubblicani della Camera hanno votato contro una legge che permetteva all’amministrazione Biden di prestare attrezzature militari all’Ucraina. Il mese successivo, 57 repubblicani hanno votato no a un pacchetto di aiuti all’Ucraina da quasi 40 miliardi di dollari. Entrambe le misure, tuttavia, alla fine sono passate alla Camera. Ma Zelenskyy sta rendendo il compito di Biden un po’ più difficile con le sue dichiarazioni irresponsabili.

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«Russia-NATO war: with republican-led House, will US support for Ukraine dwindle. Is Ukraine provoking a full-fledged direct war between Russia and NATO? And if it does not succeed, will Ukraine’s credibility in the Western eyes in this age of information war be hampered? Above all, will Ukraine’s failure adversely affects the inflow of billions of US dollars (in cash and kind), mainly when the Republicans will control the House of Representatives following the US midterm elections?»

«Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has joined his President, saying, Russia now promotes a conspiracy theory that it was allegedly a missile of Ukrainian air defense that fell on the Polish theory. Which is not true. And all this despite Russia’s closest point to the blast site in Poland is about 580 kilometers (360 miles) away, far further than the range of the S-300 system, which experts say is around 90 kilometers (56 miles)»

«This is getting ridiculous. The Ukrainians are destroying [our] confidence in them. Nobody is blaming Ukraine, and they are openly lying. This is more destructive than the missile. Conspiracy theories on the missile incident in Poland could weaken its credibility at a time when questions have been raised about the value of continued aid. This apprehension is particularly pertinent now that the Republicans will control the House of Representatives in the United States, which has already given Ukraine over 20 billion dollars and committed to providing nearly 40 billion dollars more in its war efforts.»

«Republicans and Republican-leaning independents campaigned during the just concluded mid-term elections in the US that Washington is providing too much support for Ukraine in the war. I think people are going to be sitting in a recession, and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine. It may be noted that a far-right faction among the Republicans, including supporters of former President Donald Trump, has increasingly pushed against continued assistance to Ukraine, saying the billions the US has provided to Kyiv is too costly and not worth the risk of sparking a wider conflict with Russia.»

«In April, ten House Republicans voted against a bill allowing the Biden administration to lend military equipment to Ukraine. The following month, 57 House Republicans voted “no” on a nearly $40 billion aid package for Ukraine. Both measures ultimately passed the chamber, however. But Zelenskyy is seen to be making Biden’s task a little more challenging with his irresponsible utterances»

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Russia-NATO War: With Republican-Led House, Will US Support For Ukraine Dwindle After ‘Fake Claim’ By Zelensky?

Is Ukraine provoking a full-fledged direct war between Russia and NATO? And if it does not succeed, will Ukraine’s credibility in the Western eyes in this age of information war be hampered?

Above all, will Ukraine’s failure adversely affects the inflow of billions of US dollars (in cash and kind), mainly when the Republicans will control the House of Representatives following the US midterm elections?

Since the answers are interrelated, one may begin with the developments over the last five days that have led to these questions.

On Tuesday evening (November 15), an S-300 missile landed in Poland (the Polish village of Przewodow, about six kilometers from the Ukrainian border), killing two people. The missile, initial reports said, had landed next to an area of a farm where employees load and weigh grain, destroying a nearby building.

                         Zelenskyy Adamant That It Was A Russian Missile

Whose missile was that? Poland, NATO, and the US say that the missile attack appeared unintentional and was probably launched by air defenses in neighboring Ukraine.

“Ukraine’s defense was launching their missiles in various directions, and it is highly probable that one of these missiles, unfortunately, fell on Polish territory,” said Polish President Andrzej Duda. “There is nothing, absolutely nothing, to suggest that it was an intentional attack on Poland,” he asserted.

Similarly, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said that “preliminary analysis suggests that the incident was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defense missile fired to defend Ukrainian territory against Russian cruise missile attacks.” According to him, “there was no indication this was the result of a deliberate attack,” nor any indication it was a result of “offensive military actions against NATO.”

At the same time, Stoltenberg made it clear that as Ukraine was probably defending against the Russian missile attacks by this defensive missile, it could have been accidentally fired into Polish territory.

However, despite NATO exonerating Ukraine — and even the injured party, Poland accepting the missile strike was an “isolated incident” and reiterating its support for Ukraine — Kyiv continues to defend itself and says it was a Russian attack on Poland.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is adamant that Russia fired the missile. And this he continues to say even after US President Joe Biden has dismissed his comments by saying, “Zelenskyy’s comments did not amount to evidence as NATO and Poland concluded that the missile was probably a stray fired by Ukraine’s air defenses.”

It may be noted that soon after the missile attack, Zelenskyy called it  a Russian “attack on collective security.” And in a Wednesday morning speech, he called the incident a Russian “missile attack” and said separately that Polish citizens were killed because of “Russian missile terror.”

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has joined his President, saying, “Russia now promotes a conspiracy theory that it was allegedly a missile of Ukrainian air defense that fell on the Polish theory. Which is not true.”

Zelenskyy is not even impressed by what US President Joe Biden has said in Bali during the recent G-20 summit.

Asked if the missile was fired from  Russia, Biden had said: “There is preliminary information that contests that. I don’t want to say that until we completely investigate. But it is unlikely in the minds [sic] of its trajectory that it was fired from Russia.”

But Zelenskyy stresses, “It was not our missile and not our missile strike…. I do not doubt [Tuesday’s] report to me personally — from the Commander of the Air Force to Commander-in-Chief [Valeriy] Zaluzhny — that it was not our missile and not our missile strike.”

And all this despite Russia’s closest point to the blast site in Poland is about 580 kilometers (360 miles) away, far further than the range of the S-300 system, which experts say is around 90 kilometers (56 miles). Incidentally, both Russia and Ukraine possess these S-300 defense systems.

                         Zelenskyy’s Efforts To Convince The West 

Why is Zelenskyy so adamant? He knows that if NATO believes in his version, direct war with Russia by the military alliance could be a logical result.

Poland is a NATO member, and Article 5 of the alliance’s charter states that “an armed attack against one or more of [the members] in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all” and that force can be used in response.

It may be noted that the collective defense clause has been invoked only once in NATO history, after the 9/11 attacks in the United States. NATO forces were subsequently deployed to Afghanistan.

Article 5 says that each member of NATO must take “such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.” It also authorizes the alliance to launch an armed response, but the wording is broad and leaves room for other types of action.

Article 4 of the NATO charter allows members to bring any issue of concern, especially related to security, for discussion at the North Atlantic Council, the alliance’s political decision-making body.

Article 4 has been invoked seven times since NATO was established in 1949. It was used most recently by Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Romania, and Slovakia to hold meetings after Russia invaded Ukraine.

But Poland did not deem it fit to use this clause after the missile attack on Tuesday, which it described as accidental, and that too by Ukraine, whom it is supporting in the war against Russia.

                         NATO Vs. Russia The End Goal?

It may be noted, however, that when Russia invaded Ukraine in February, NATO activated its Response Force — a multinational conglomerate of land, air, sea, and special-operations personnel numbering 40,000 — for the first time in its history.

As part of the activation, NATO dispatched troops to countries bordering Russia and Ukraine, including Romania and Hungary, to augment the battle groups already stationed in the Baltic States and Poland.

But NATO will not fight Russia over this missile attack, contrary to what President Zelenskyy might have thought (if at all). On the other hand, his remarks on the incident could negatively impact Ukraine’s credibility “at a pivotal moment in Putin’s deadly war,” according to a senior NATO official.

“This is getting ridiculous. The Ukrainians are destroying [our] confidence in them. Nobody is blaming Ukraine, and they are openly lying. This is more destructive than the missile,” he said.

There are merits in the arguments in certain Western quarters that as propaganda wins have helped Ukraine as much as battlefield victories in garnering support for its war against Russia, a Ukrainian overreaction and dismissal of valid concerns as conspiracy theories on the missile incident in Poland could weaken its credibility at a time when questions have been raised about the value of continued aid.

This apprehension is particularly pertinent now that the Republicans will control the House of Representatives in the United States, which has already given Ukraine over 20 billion dollars and committed to providing nearly 40 billion dollars more in its war efforts.

With record high inflation, political standoff with Russia, and rapidly growing national debt, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents campaigned during the just concluded mid-term elections in the US that Washington is providing too much support for Ukraine in the war.

“I think people are going to be sitting in a recession, and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who will now be the House Speaker, recently told the press. “They just won’t do it.”

It may be noted that a far-right faction among the Republicans, including supporters of former President Donald Trump, has increasingly pushed against continued assistance to Ukraine, saying the billions the US has provided to Kyiv is too costly and not worth the risk of sparking a wider conflict with Russia.

In April, ten House Republicans voted against a bill allowing the Biden administration to lend military equipment to Ukraine. The following month, 57 House Republicans voted “no” on a nearly $40 billion aid package for Ukraine. Both measures ultimately passed the chamber, however.

Similarly,  the Biden Administration will, in all probability, find ways to meet the new Republican challenge as the majority in the US still support the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

But Zelenskyy is seen to be making Biden’s task a little more challenging with his “irresponsible” utterances.

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