Pubblicato in: Cina, Devoluzione socialismo, Geopolitica Mondiale, Russia, Stati Uniti

Biden. Summit Asean. Biden e liberal democratici piantano i chiodi sulla bara degli Stati Uniti.

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2022-11-13.

2022-10-07__ Biden Pazzo 001

Dall’otto al tredici novembre 2022 si terrà a Phnom Penh, Cambodia, il 40th and 41st Asean Summits and related Summits.

«L’ASEAN, Association of South-East Asian Nations, è un’organizzazione politica, economica e culturale di nazioni situate nel Sud-est asiatico, a cui è collegata l’omonima area di libero scambio, ovvero l’area di libero scambio dell’ASEAN, a sua volta collegata con singoli accordi all’Australia, Nuova Zelanda, Repubblica Popolare Cinese, Corea del Sud e Giappone, tale per cui ognuno di questi stati ha un accordo di libero scambio con l’ASEAN.

È uno dei principali partner dell’Organizzazione per la Cooperazione di Shanghai, con il quale sviluppa un modello di cooperazione per la pace, la stabilità, lo sviluppo e la sostenibilità dell’Asia

Paesi membri: Indonesia, Malaysia, Filippine, Singapore, Thailandia, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Birmania, Cambogia.

Gdp Ppp 10,205 trilioni Usd nel 2022.» [Fonte]

* * * * * * *

Biden to attend summit of Southeast Asian leaders as Myanmar looms.

«Bangkok — Southeast Asian leaders convene in the Cambodian capital Thursday, faced with the challenge of trying to curtail escalating violence in Myanmar while the country’s military-led government shows no signs of complying with the group’s peace plan.

U.S. President Joe Biden will be on hand for the Phnom Penh summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which comes as Washington and Beijing are increasingly jockeying for influence in the Asia-Pacific region. It sets the stage for the Group of 20 meetings in Bali, Indonesia, that immediately follow and are expected to include Chinese President Xi Jinping and possibly Russian President Vladimir Putin, then the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Bangkok.

In addition to Myanmar, the four-day meetings are expected to focus on ongoing disputes in the South China Sea, pandemic recovery issues, regional trade and climate change.

Neither Xi nor Putin is expected to attend the ASEAN talks or the parallel East Asia Summit, though both China and Russia are thought to be sending high-level delegations.

Looming large over ASEAN, the G-20 and APEC are the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and Russia’s consequent search for new markets for its energy resources, as well as resulting supply chain and food security issues, China’s increasingly aggressive saber-rattling over Taiwan, and rising tension in the Korean Peninsula.

By attending the ASEAN summit in person, Biden will be able to push American interests and also visibly demonstrate Washington’s renewed commitment to the region, said Thomas Daniel, an expert with Malaysia’s Institute of Strategic and International Studies.»

* * * * * * *

Ma tutti i conti dovrebbero essere fatti sempre con l’oste.

L’America di Joe Biden e dei liberal democratici è allo sbando. Basti solo constatare la incapacità di dare i risultati elettorali di midterm, fatto questo che certo non sfugge né ai cinesi né ai russi.

Non solo.

Sembrerebbe essere verosimile che Joe Biden si presenti politicamente sfiduciato, privato del controllo almeno del Congresso. Ossia, politicamente distrutto ed ininfluente.

Biden ed i liberal democratici stanno piantando con metodo i chiodi sulla bara degli Stati Uniti.

* * * * * * *

                         In nessun luogo la politica estera assertiva di Xi Jinping ha avuto un impatto maggiore che nel Sud-Est asiatico, il cortile strategico della Cina. Ma con la crescita del potere di Pechino è cresciuto anche il disagio di Washington, che ora, dopo anni di oscillazioni, sta cercando di impegnarsi nuovamente nella regione.

                         Quando questa settimana parteciperà al vertice annuale dell’Associazione delle Nazioni del Sud-Est Asiatico o Asean in Cambogia, il presidente Joe Biden sarà il primo leader statunitense a compiere questo viaggio dal 2017. Era presente anche l’anno scorso. Poi si recherà in Indonesia, un altro importante attore della regione, dove è previsto un incontro con il leader cinese Xi Jinping prima che entrambi partecipino alla riunione del G20. Ma gli Stati Uniti operano ora in un ambiente diplomatico più insidioso che in passato.

                         L’Asean, un tempo considerata essenziale per la diplomazia nell’Asia-Pacifico, ha faticato a rimanere efficace in un mondo sempre più polarizzato. Si è configurata come una zona di pace e neutralità, dove i suoi 10 Stati membri cercano il consenso, evitano di criticarsi a vicenda e si sentono liberi di impegnare le diverse potenze.

                         La Cina ha intrapreso un’offensiva di fascino nella regione, seguendo il mantra dell’ex leader Deng Xiaoping: Nascondi la tua forza, aspetta il tuo tempo. Ma sotto Xi, ormai al potere da 10 anni, la forza della Cina non è più stata nascosta. Nell’ultimo decennio, l’occupazione e lo sviluppo militare delle isole della barriera corallina nel Mar Cinese Meridionale hanno portato la Cina a scontrarsi direttamente con altri pretendenti, in particolare Vietnam e Filippine.

                         Ma i Paesi che compongono l’Asean si trovano in una posizione difficile. In primo luogo, la Cina è così importante economicamente e così potente militarmente che pochi osano affrontarla apertamente. Persino in Vietnam, che è entrato in guerra con la Cina solo 43 anni fa e dove il sentimento anti-cinese è molto forte, il partito comunista al governo è cauto nel trattare con il suo gigantesco vicino. I due paesi condividono un lungo confine, la Cina è il più grande partner commerciale del Vietnam e un anello vitale nella catena di approvvigionamento che alimenta le sue esportazioni da primato mondiale.

                         In secondo luogo, la Cina ha effettivamente distrutto l’unità dell’Asean facendo fuori gli Stati più piccoli, come il Laos e la Cambogia, che ora dipendono a tal punto dall’elargizione di Pechino da essere più o meno degli Stati clienti. Questo era chiaro anche nel 2012, quando la Cambogia ha assunto per l’ultima volta la presidenza a rotazione dell’Asean, bloccando una dichiarazione finale critica nei confronti della posizione di Pechino nel Mar Cinese Meridionale. La verità è che anche i Paesi del Sud-Est asiatico si sono disamorati di Washington. E la volontà di Washington di sfidare la Cina in Asia li spaventa perché hanno molto da perdere da un confronto tra superpotenze.

                         Gli Stati Uniti possono trarre conforto dalla consapevolezza che l’Asean continuerà a impegnarsi il più possibile con le altre potenze – come contrappeso alla Cina. È improbabile che la Cina abbia qui degli alleati militari stretti, come gli Stati Uniti hanno il Giappone e l’Australia. Ma tutti i Paesi dell’Asean – in misura diversa – accettano ormai che la Cina sarà la potenza dominante nella regione e che non è disposta a fare concessioni quando sono in gioco i suoi interessi.

* * * * * * *

«Nowhere has Xi Jinping’s assertive foreign policy had a greater impact than in South East Asia, China’s strategic backyard. But as Beijing’s power has grown, so has Washington’s unease – and now after years of see-sawing, the US is trying engage with the region again.»

«When he attends the annual summit of the Association of South East Asian Nations or Asean this week in Cambodia, President Joe Biden becomes the first US leader to make that trip since 2017. He was there virtually last year too. And then he goes to Indonesia, another important player in the region, where he is scheduled to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping before they both attend the G20 meeting. But the US is now operating in a more treacherous diplomatic environment than in the past.»

«Asean, once considered essential for diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific, has struggled to remain effective in an increasingly polarised world. It has fashioned itself as a zone of peace and neutrality, where its 10 member states seek consensus, avoid criticising each other and feel free to engage different powers»

«China embarked on a charm offensive in the region, following former leader Deng Xiaoping’s mantra hide your strength, bide your time. But under Mr Xi, now in power for 10 years, China’s strength was no longer hidden. In the last decade, China’s occupation and military development of reef islands in the South China Sea has brought it into direct conflict with other claimants, particularly Vietnam and the Philippines.»

«But the countries that make up Asean are in a sticky position. First, China is so important economically, and so powerful militarily, that few dare confront it openly. Even in Vietnam, which went to war with China only 43 years ago and where anti-China sentiment runs high, the ruling communist party is cautious when dealing with its giant neighbour. They share a long border, China is Vietnam’s largest trading partner, and a vital link in the supply chain that fuels its world-beating exports.»

«Second, China has effectively destroyed Asean unity by picking off smaller states, such as Laos and Cambodia, which are now so dependent on Beijing’s largesse they are more or less client states. This was clear even in 2012, when Cambodia last took the rotating Asean chair, and blocked a final statement critical of Beijing’s position in the South China Sea. The truth is South East Asian countries have also become disenchanted with Washington. And Washington’s willingness to challenge China in Asia frightens them because they have a great deal to lose from a superpower confrontation.»

«The US can draw comfort from the knowledge that Asean will still engage other powers as much as possible – as a counterweight to China. And China is unlikely ever to have close military allies here, in the way the US does in Japan and Australia. But all Asean countries – to varying degrees – now accept that China will be the dominant power in this region and one that is unwilling to make concessions where its own interests are at stake.»

* * * * * * *


The US wants to play in China’s backyard.

Nowhere has Xi Jinping’s assertive foreign policy had a greater impact than in South East Asia, China’s strategic backyard.

But as Beijing’s power has grown, so has Washington’s unease – and now after years of see-sawing, the US is trying engage with the region again.

When he attends the annual summit of the Association of South East Asian Nations or Asean this week in Cambodia, President Joe Biden becomes the first US leader to make that trip since 2017. He was there virtually last year too. And then he goes to Indonesia, another important player in the region, where he is scheduled to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping before they both attend the G20 meeting.

But the US is now operating in a more treacherous diplomatic environment than in the past.

Asean, once considered essential for diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific, has struggled to remain effective in an increasingly polarised world. It has fashioned itself as a zone of peace and neutrality, where its 10 member states seek consensus, avoid criticising each other and feel free to engage different powers. Its small and weak secretariat, and lack of any process for enforcing decisions on members, reflects this mindset.

championed trade and growth. But China’s arrival on the global market and growing influence from the early 2000s coincided with diminishing US interest, as it focussed on the Middle East.

China embarked on a charm offensive in the region, following former leader Deng Xiaoping’s mantra “hide your strength, bide your time”. But under Mr Xi, now in power for 10 years, China’s strength was no longer hidden.

In the last decade, China’s occupation and military development of reef islands in the South China Sea has brought it into direct conflict with other claimants, particularly Vietnam and the Philippines. Attempts by Asean to get China to agree to a “code of conduct” in the disputed areas have gone nowhere. Beijing has simply stalled negotiations for 20 years. It has also dismissed an international court ruling in 2016 that its claims are invalid.

It has been just as evasive on problems caused by its large-scale damming of the Mekong River.

But the countries that make up Asean are in a sticky position. First, China is so important economically, and so powerful militarily, that few dare confront it openly.

Even in Vietnam, which went to war with China only 43 years ago and where anti-China sentiment runs high, the ruling communist party is cautious when dealing with its giant neighbour. They share a long border, China is Vietnam’s largest trading partner, and a vital link in the supply chain that fuels its world-beating exports.

Second, China has effectively destroyed Asean unity by picking off smaller states, such as Laos and Cambodia, which are now so dependent on Beijing’s largesse they are more or less client states. This was clear even in 2012, when Cambodia last took the rotating Asean chair, and blocked a final statement critical of Beijing’s position in the South China Sea.

While wariness of China might sound like good news for the US, the truth is South East Asian countries have also become disenchanted with Washington.

They see it as an unreliable partner, too preoccupied with human rights and democracy. The US forced the region to accept hugely unpopular and tough economic measures after the 1997 Asian financial crash, disengaged almost completely during President George Bush’s war on terror, and has since flipped from President Obama’s much-hyped “pivot” to Asia, to President Trump’s narrow approach to what he called unfair Asian trading practices.

The US focus today on the Quad alliance with Japan, India and Australia has also weakened Asean, leaving it feeling stuck between two powerful sides. And Washington’s willingness to challenge China in Asia frightens them because they have a great deal to lose from a superpower confrontation.

For all its overtures, no US administration has been willing to pursue free trade agreements – and that has certainly soured the deal for what is perhaps the most trade-dependent region in the world.

A relationship with China, on the other hand, has already led to the world’s largest trading bloc linking Asean, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

Even Indonesia, the largest Asean state and with the region’s most China-sceptic foreign policy, has under President Joko Widodo eagerly sought Chinese investment, loans and technology.

The US can draw comfort from the knowledge that Asean will still engage other powers as much as possible – as a counterweight to China. And China is unlikely ever to have close military allies here, in the way the US does in Japan and Australia.

But all Asean countries – to varying degrees – now accept that China will be the dominant power in this region and one that is unwilling to make concessions where its own interests are at stake.

The question for Mr Biden: is it too late for the US to reshape alliances in China’s backyard?

Pubblicità

2 pensieri riguardo “Biden. Summit Asean. Biden e liberal democratici piantano i chiodi sulla bara degli Stati Uniti.

I commenti sono chiusi.