Giuseppe Sandro Mela.
2022-10-25.
Le forti piogge potrebbero intaccare la produzione di olio di palma nei prossimi mesi. Lo sconto dell’olio di palma rispetto alla soia è salito ai massimi di un decennio. Gli sconti aumentano la domanda di cibo, biocombustibili e riducono le scorte. Il palma potrebbe essere sostenuto dall’interruzione delle forniture di sunoil.
I prezzi dell’olio di palma potrebbero rafforzarsi ulteriormente a causa delle eccessive piogge nei principali Paesi produttori che ne limitano la produzione, mentre aumenta la domanda per il suo utilizzo nei prodotti alimentari e nei biocarburanti.
I prezzi dell’olio di palma sono saliti di circa un quinto questo mese, ma sono ancora molto al di sotto del massimo storico stabilito a marzo. I commercianti hanno detto che le spedizioni di novembre di olio di palma grezzo all’India, il più grande importatore mondiale, sono state offerte a 976 dollari per tonnellata comprensivi di costi, assicurazione e trasporto. Le consegne di gennaio sono quotate a 1,010 dollari per tonnellata. Ma i prezzi potrebbero superare i 1,100 dollari se l’Indonesia decidesse di ripristinare le tasse sulle esportazioni, cosa molto probabile. La decisione dell’Indonesia di sospendere le tasse sull’esportazione a luglio a causa dell’accumulo di scorte ha fatto scendere i prezzi dell’olio di palma dai massimi di marzo di circa 2,010 dollari per tonnellata.
Nonostante l’aumento dei prezzi di questo mese, l’olio di palma viene scambiato con uno sconto di circa 400 dollari per tonnellata rispetto al rivale soio, il più alto in un decennio, hanno detto i commercianti. Il soio grezzo per la consegna di novembre in India è quotato a 1,405 dollari per tonnellata. Il modo in cui la domanda si è spostata verso l’olio di palma rispetto ad altri oli commestibili, è molto probabile che i prezzi dell’olio di palma aumentino. In genere, la produzione di olio di palma inizia a diminuire da novembre in Indonesia e Malesia, che rappresentano oltre l’80% della produzione globale.
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«Heavy rains could dent palm oil output in coming months. Palm oil’s discount to soyoil has widened to 1-decade high. Discounts lift demand for food, bio-fuel; trims stocks. Palm could get support from sunoil supply disruption»
«Palm oil prices are likely to strengthen further as excessive rain in key producing countries curbs output, while demand increases for its use in food and biofuels»
«Palm oil prices have climbed by around a fifth this month but are still trading far below an all-time high set in March. Traders said November shipments of crude palm oil to India, the world’s biggest importer, are being offered at $976 per tonne inclusive of cost, insurance and freight. January deliveries are being quoted at $1,010 per tonne, they said. But prices could move above $1,100 if Indonesia decides to restore export levies, which is very likely. Indonesia’s decision to suspend export levies in July because of a buildup of stocks pulled down palm oil prices from the March high of about $2,010 per tone»
«Despite this month’s rise in prices, palm oil trades at a discount of about $400 per tonne to rival soyoil, the highest in a decade, the traders said. Crude soyoil for November delivery in India is being quoted at $1,405 per tonne. The way demand has been shifting towards palm oil from other edible oils, it’s very likely that palm oil (prices) would move higher. Typically, palm oil output starts tapering off from November in Indonesia and Malaysia, which account for more than 80% of global production»
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Palm oil prices seen ticking up as rains slash output and demand strengthens
– Heavy rains could dent palm oil output in coming months
– Palm oil’s discount to soyoil has widened to 1-decade high
– Discounts lift demand for food, bio-fuel; trims stocks
– Palm could get support from sunoil supply disruption
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Mumbai, Oct 21 (Reuters) – Palm oil prices are likely to strengthen further as excessive rain in key producing countries curbs output, while demand increases for its use in food and biofuels, industry officials said.
Palm oil prices have climbed by around a fifth this month but are still trading far below an all-time high set in March. The expected spike in prices will add to the burden of consumers already hit by inflation triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war, but higher exports and lower production would help major palm oil producers Indonesia and Malaysia bring down inventories.
Traders said November shipments of crude palm oil to India, the world’s biggest importer, are being offered at $976 per tonne inclusive of cost, insurance and freight.
January deliveries are being quoted at $1,010 per tonne, they said.
“But prices could move above $1,100 if Indonesia decides to restore export levies, which is very likely,” said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading firm.
Indonesia’s decision to suspend export levies in July because of a buildup of stocks pulled down palm oil prices from the March high of about $2,010 per tone.
Despite this month’s rise in prices, palm oil trades at a discount of about $400 per tonne to rival soyoil, the highest in a decade, the traders said. Crude soyoil for November delivery in India is being quoted at $1,405 per tonne.
“The spread between palm oil and soyoil is massive and unsustainable,” said Pradeep Chowdhry, managing director of Gemini Edibles and Fats India Pvt. Ltd, a leading Indian importer.
“The way demand has been shifting towards palm oil from other edible oils, it’s very likely that palm oil (prices) would move higher.”
Typically, palm oil output starts tapering off from November in Indonesia and Malaysia, which account for more than 80% of global production. But this year, the drop in output is expected to be sharper as a rare third consecutive La Nina weather pattern brings heavy rainfall across Southeast Asia.
“We are facing heavy downpours for the past three days, there are minor floods here and there,” said Fabian Lim, a plantation manager in Malaysia’s biggest palm oil producing state of Sabah. “It is affecting my evacuation of crop.”
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